Live: Tesla Q4 Earnings Call 2025 (TSLA)
发布时间 2026-01-29 00:08:34 来源
And welcome to Tesla's fourth quarter, 2025 Q&A webcast. My name is Travis Axrod, head of investor relations, and I'm joined today by Elon Musk, the above Tunisia, and a number of other executives. Our Q4 results were announced at about 3pm central time in the update deck we published at the same link as this webcast. During this call, we will discuss our business outlook and make forward-looking statements. These comments are based on our predictions and expectations as of today. Actual events or results could differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those mentioned in our most recent filings with the SEC. During the question and answer portion of today's call, please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. Please use the raise hand button to join the question queue.
欢迎参加特斯拉2025年第四季度的问答网络直播。我是Travis Axrod，负责投资者关系。今天与我一同出席的有埃隆·马斯克、Tunisia以及其他几位高管。我们的第四季度业绩已经在中央时间下午3点左右通过与本次网络直播相同的链接发布的更新报告中公布。在此次电话会议中，我们将讨论公司的业务前景并发表前瞻性声明。这些评论基于我们截至今天的预测和期望。由于许多风险和不确定性，包括我们最近向美国证券交易委员会提交的文件中提到的因素，实际事件或结果可能会有明显不同。在今天的问答环节中，请限制自己提一个问题和一个跟进问题。要加入问题队列，请使用"举手"按钮。
Before we jump into Q&A, Elon has some opening remarks. Elon? Thanks Travis. So we've updated the Tesla mission to amazing abundance, and this is an attempt to send a message of optimism about the future. We're most likely headed to an exciting, amazing era of abundance. And I think with the continued growth of AI and robotics, I think we actually are headed to a future of universal high income, not universal basic income, but universal high income. I mean, there's going to be a lot of change along the way, but that is what I see as the most likely outcome. So I think that makes sense to update Tesla's mission to reflect that goal.
在我们进入问答环节之前，埃隆有些开场白。埃隆？谢谢你，特拉维斯。我们更新了特斯拉的使命，以实现美好的富足。这样做是为了传递一个关于未来乐观的信息。我们很可能正走向一个令人兴奋、令人惊叹的富足时代。我认为随着人工智能和机器人技术的不断发展，我们实际上正走向一个全民高收入的未来，而不是全民基本收入。我是说，过程中会有很多变化，但我认为这是最有可能的结果。所以，我认为更新特斯拉的使命以反映这个目标是有意义的。
And obviously, along that way, we're going to keep improving safety, driving down the cost of goods, and getting people access to anything they need without compromise, and still making sure that the environment is great, nature is great, and people can have whatever they want, which seems like probably the best future. I'm open to other ideas, but that sounds like this. If you could say, what is the best future you could possibly imagine? I guess it would be that everyone can have whatever they want, including amazing medical care, but we still keep the beauty of nature and an earth. I think that's probably the best outcome.
显然，在这个过程中，我们将不断提高安全性，降低商品成本，让人们在不妥协的情况下获得任何他们需要的东西，同时确保环境和自然的美好，人们能够拥有他们想要的一切。这似乎是最理想的未来。我对其他想法持开放态度，但这听起来很不错。如果你问什么是你能想象的最佳未来，我想那就是每个人都能拥有他们想要的东西，包括出色的医疗服务，同时保持自然和地球的美丽。我认为这可能是最佳的结果。
And we're seeing obviously the first steps along that way, this year for Tesla, first major steps, as we increase vehicle autonomy, and begin to produce Optimus robots at scale. We're making very, very big investments, so this is going to be a very big capax year, as Bible will get into. That is deliberate, because we're making big investments for an epic future. So I think all these investments make a lot of sense. We'll continue to make sure that when we do spend capital, we just spend very efficiently. But it's a lot of things. You know, major investments in batteries and the entire supply chain of batteries. So we're also going to be significant manufacturers of solar cells and we're making massive investments in AI chips. So, but I think these will all make a ton of strategic sense.
我们显然看到特斯拉在这方面迈出了第一步。今年是特斯拉在这个方向上的重要一年，因为我们正在提高车辆的自动化水平，并开始大规模生产Optimus机器人。我们正在进行非常大的投资，所以今年将是一个重要的资本支出年，就像Bible所说的。这是有计划的，因为我们正在为一个伟大的未来做出大规模的投资。我认为所有这些投资都是非常合理的。我们将继续确保在花费资本时做到高效利用。这涉及很多方面，比如在电池和整个电池供应链上的重大投资。我们还将成为太阳能电池的重要生产商，同时在人工智能芯片领域进行大规模投资。我认为这些举措都具有很高的战略意义。
And then I guess I have like one, I guess, not exactly bad news, but it's a it's time to basically bring the Model S and X programs to an end with an honorable discharge. Because we're really moving into a future that is based on autonomy. And so if you're interested in buying a Model S and X now would be the time to order it, because we expect to wind down S and X production in next quarter and basically stop production of Model S and X next quarter. We'll obviously continue to support the Model S and X programs for as long as people have the vehicles.
我想说的是，我有一个不算坏的消息，但我们要为Model S和Model X项目做个体面的结束了。因为我们正迈向一个以自动驾驶为基础的未来。如果你有兴趣购买Model S或Model X，现在就是下订单的好时机。我们预计将于下个季度逐步缩减S和X的生产，并基本在下个季度停止生产。显然，只要有人继续使用这些车辆，我们就会继续支持Model S和X项目。
But we're going to take the Model S and X production space in our Fremont factory and convert that into an Optimus factory which will with a long-term goal of having a million units a year of Optimus robots in the current SX space in Fremont. So that is slightly sad, but it's it is it is it is time to bring the SX programs to to an end and shift really it's part of our overall shift to an autonomous future. As my profile picture on on X said for a few months there, the future is autonomous.
我们打算将弗里蒙特工厂中用于生产Model S和X汽车的空间改造成Optimus机器人的工厂。我们的长期目标是在这个新的Optimus工厂中，每年生产100万个Optimus机器人。虽然这让人有点伤感，但确实是时候结束S和X系列生产，并将重心转向自动化未来。这也是我们整体向自动化未来转变的一部分。就像我在X上的头像几个月来一直显示的那样，未来是自动化的。
And so let's say with respect to full self-driving and robotaxi, people are obviously falling with very close tension, the progress of FSC and and you can experience it for yourself if you've got a Tesla you can you notice with with with every software update the car gets better and better at autonomy. And and we're you know we're we're able to do our first rides with no safety monitor in the car in Austin. These are paid rides. So these are just sort of randomly selected paid rides with no safety monitor and and and I mean maybe as of maybe yesterday or so we actually don't we don't even have a chase car or anything like that. So these are just cars with no people in them and no one's following the car in in Austin.
翻译成中文如下：
关于全自动驾驶和无人出租车，人们显然非常关注FSC的进展。如果你拥有一辆特斯拉，你可以亲自体验到它的进步，因为每次软件更新后，汽车的自动驾驶能力都会越来越好。我们现在在奥斯汀首次实现了无需安全监控员的付费乘车。这些是随机选择的付费乘车，没有安全监控员。其实，也许就在昨天左右，我们甚至没有跟随车或类似的东西。这些车里完全没有人，也没有人在奥斯汀追踪这些车。
So we're we're obviously are being very cautious about this because we want to have we want to have no no injuries or serious accidents long the way. So I think it makes sense to be very cautious but you'll see the amount of autonomy increase dramatically I think every every month essentially. So and and and then there will also be an opportunity something we talked about for a long time for existing owners of of Tesla's to add or subtract their cause to the fleet kind of like how air and be air B and B works where you can add or subtract your house to the air B and B inventory. And I think probably the value of the that the Tesla's the sort of partial people adding or subtracting the cost of Tesla's autonomous fleet is probably a little underweighted underweighted by a lot of people because we've got millions of cars with air for that can do this.
我们显然对此非常谨慎，因为我们希望在整个过程中没有任何伤害或严重事故。因此，我认为保持谨慎是合理的，但我相信你会看到，每个月的自动化水平都会显著提升。此外，我们也会提供一个机会，让现有的特斯拉车主就像在 Airbnb 上添加或移除房子一样，将他们的汽车加入或移除车队。我觉得很多人可能低估了这种方式可能带来的价值，因为我们有数百万辆可以执行此类操作的汽车。
So so it's that that that it might potentially for I think it will provide an opportunity for a lot of customers to earn more by landing their car to the fleet than their lease cost to Tesla. Yeah which is kind of it's kind of like you get you get you get you get you get in that scenario you basically get paid to own a Tesla it's it's quite a good scenario. And and and we expect to have fully autonomous vehicles in you know probably I don't know somewhere between a quarter and half of the United States by the end of the year pending regulatory approval. You know big factor would be if there's some kind of federal preemption for autonomous vehicles in the absence of that you kind of have to go on a city by city or state by state basis but nonetheless we we even if it is city by city state by state we expect to be in I don't know dozens of cities dozens of major cities by the end of the year.
所以，这可能为许多客户提供一个机会，通过将他们的汽车加入车队租赁，从而赚取超过支付给特斯拉的租赁费用的收入。这种情况下，基本上就是你在拥有一辆特斯拉的同时还能赚钱，这真是一个不错的情形。我们预计在年底前，如果法规批准，可能会在美国四分之一到一半的地区拥有全自动驾驶汽车。一个重要因素是是否会有联邦对自动驾驶汽车的统一规定，如果没有这种联邦规定，就需要根据城市或州的情况逐步推进。不过，即使是这种情况，我们预计到年底会在数十个主要城市实现这种计划。
Um with respect to energy the the Tesla energy team has done incredible work and the growth rate on that is continuing to be very strong and and we're we're building more manufacturing capacity and and expect that yeah and energy will will have very high growth for really as far into the future as we can imagine. The solar the solar opportunity is underestimated we think the the best way to add significant capability to the grid is or an image to the grid is where let's say powering AI data centers is solar and batteries on earth and solar and space so that's why we're we're going to work towards getting a hundred gigawatts here of solar cell production integrating across the entire supply chain from raw raw materials all ready finished solar panels.
关于能源方面，特斯拉的能源团队取得了令人难以置信的成就，其增长速度仍然非常强劲。我们正在增加制造能力，并期待未来能源会有非常高的增长。我们认为，太阳能的发展机会常常被低估了。提升电网能力的最佳方式之一，就是在地球上和太空中通过太阳能和电池来为AI数据中心供电。因此，我们计划在这里达到100吉瓦的太阳能电池生产规模，整合从原材料到成品太阳能板的整个供应链。
Um I move a bit more about Optimus we'll probably unveil Optimus three in a few months um and um I think it's it's going to be quite uh surprising people it's as an incredibly capable robot um and as I mentioned we're replacing the sx line in free amount with a million unit per million unit per year line of Optimus um now because it is a it's a completely new supply chain I it's just it's a there's really nothing from from the existing supply chain that exists in in Optimus everything is designed from physics first principles. So that means um the the normal s curve of manufacturing ramp will be longer for Optimus than it is for uh products that have uh at least some portion of an existing supply chain like when everything's new um the the production rate will be proportionate to the least lucky least confident part of the entire supply chain and if there's 10,000 things that need to go right it's you know it only takes one to to be slowed to to lag that but um so it will be sort of a stretched out s curve uh but I'm confident that we'll get to a million units a year of uh in free amount of Optimus 3.
嗯，我们将在几个月后发布Optimus 3，我认为这会让很多人大吃一惊，因为这款机器人非常强大。正如我提到的，我们计划用每年生产一百万台Optimus的生产线取代在弗里蒙特的sx生产线。
由于Optimus的供应链是全新的，几乎没有现有供应链的部分可以沿用，所有东西都是从物理基本原理开始设计的。这意味着Optimus的生产爬坡曲线会比那些拥有部分现有供应链的产品要长。当所有东西都是新的时，生产速度将取决于整个供应链中最不确定或最不成熟的部分。如果有一万个环节需要运转顺利，只要有一个环节落后，整个过程就会受到影响。
因此，这将是一个拉长的S曲线来达到生产目标，但我相信我们能够在弗里蒙特每年生产一百万台Optimus 3。
Um and and this this Optimus 3 really will be a general purpose robot that can um learn by observing human human behavior so you can like demonstrate a task or especially for verbally describe a task or show it a task um you can show it a video and it will be able to do that task so it's uh it's going to be a very capable robot um I think long term Optimus will have a very significant impact on the US GDP like it will actually move the needle on US GDP significantly.
嗯，这个，这个Optimus 3将会是一个通用型机器人，它能够通过观察人类行为来学习。所以你可以演示一个任务，或者特别是通过语言描述一个任务，或者展示一个任务的视频，它都能学会去执行。因此，它将会是一个非常有能力的机器人。我认为从长远来看，Optimus将对美国的GDP产生非常显著的影响，甚至会明显提升美国的GDP。
So um in conclusion um uh you know there's still obviously many who doubt our ambitions for creating amazing abundance but we're we're confident uh it can be done and we're that we're making the right moves technologically to ensure that it does and um tells us obviously not it would never be in a company to shy away from solving some of the hardest problems um you know that it's uh I think that's kind of how you build value in a company is you solve hard problems um it's like I don't know how you create value by solving easy problems um so there's there's a lot of hard problems that the Tesla team uh is going to solve but it's an incredibly talented hardworking team um and I'd like to thank actually everyone at Tesla for their their incredible hard work um and it's an honor to work with such such a talented group so thank you to everyone who is supporting this mission the future is more exciting than you can imagine.
所以，总结来说，虽然仍然有很多人对我们创造丰盈未来的抱负表示怀疑，但我们相信这是可以实现的，并且在技术上采取了正确的步骤来确保这一点。特斯拉从未回避解决一些最困难的问题，我认为这是企业创造价值的方式，因为解决简单问题是无法创造更大价值的。特斯拉团队将攻克许多难题，这是一支才华横溢且努力工作的团队。我想感谢特斯拉的每一位员工，他们的辛勤工作令人敬佩，能与如此有才华的团队共事是我的荣幸。感谢所有支持这个使命的人，未来将比你想象的更加令人振奋。
Fantastic thank you so much Elon uh and next we have uh Simon Marx from Febov uh go ahead uh thanks Travis so Q425 was an interesting quarter in a couple of respects on the auto front while in Q3 we saw surge in US demand before the ira consumer credit lift pulling in some demand from Q4. In other parts of the world we saw increased in demand leading to record deliveries in smaller countries like Malaysia Norway Poland Saudi Arabia and Taiwan while continued strength in the rest of APEC and Amina. We therefore ended 2025 with a bigger backlog than in recent years. Note that none of these countries have the latest version of FSD supervised available yet.
太棒了，非常感谢你，Elon。接下来我们有来自Febov的Simon Marx。请继续，好的，谢谢Travis。关于2025年第四季度，这一季度在几个方面是很有趣的。在汽车方面，尽管在第三季度我们看到在美国的需求激增，尤其是在《IRA消费者法案》的刺激下，这导致了一些第四季度的需求被提前。然而，在世界其他地区，我们也见到了需求的增长，这使得像马来西亚、挪威、波兰、沙特阿拉伯和台湾这些较小国家的交付量创下纪录，而亚太区和亚非地区其他地方的表现也保持强劲。因此，我们在2025年底的时候比近年来有了更大的订单积压。请注意，这些国家中没有一个有最新版本的FSD（自动驾驶全功能）监督系统。
On the storage front we had yet another record in terms of deployments. I would like to thank our customers and Tesla in continuing this momentum. On the automotive margins front automotive margins excluding credits improved sequentially from 15.4 to 17.9 percent. The automotive growth profit was flat sequentially despite 16 percent lower deliveries primarily due to regional mix as we had proportionately more deliveries in APEC and Amina. As we look to 2026 with the progress that has been made with autonomy our focus is on ramping production at all our factories. Our biggest constraint globally continues to be on the battery pack front.
在存储方面，我们的部署再次创下纪录。我要感谢我们的客户和特斯拉持续推动这一势头。在汽车利润率方面，如果不算碳排放积分，汽车利润率按季度从15.4%提高到17.9%。尽管交付量减少了16%，但由于亚太和亚美尼亚地区的交付比例较高，汽车毛利按季度持平。展望2026年，随着自动驾驶技术的进步，我们的重点是增加所有工厂的产量。全球最大的限制仍然是电池组方面的挑战。
While our teams have been creative in trying to resolve the situation by now putting 4680 cells in non-structural packs we continue to iterate improving things from here on. FSD adoption continued to improve in the quarter reaching nearly 1.1 million paid customers globally. Of these nearly 70 percent were upfront purchases. It is important to note that beginning this quarter we are transitioning fully to a subscription based model for FSD. Therefore net additions to this figure will primarily be via subscription model and in the short term will impact automotive margins.
虽然我们的团队通过将4680电池放置在非结构性电池包中来创造性地尝试解决问题，但我们仍在不断改进。在这一季度，全自动驾驶功能（FSD）的采用率继续提高，全球付费用户已接近110万。其中，近70%的用户是一次性购买。这一季度开始，我们将全面转向FSD的订阅模式。因此，新增用户主要会通过订阅模式来实现，而在短期内，这将对汽车的利润率产生影响。
On the energy front we achieved yet another record in terms of gross profit for the quarter and ended the year with nearly 12.8 billion in revenue a 26.6 percent year year over year growth. This was the result of high deployments in all regions and continued strength and demand for both mega pack and power. As we look at 2026 our backlog remains strong well diversified globally and we expect increasing deployments with the launch of mega pack 3 and mega block. However we expect margin compression from the increased low cost competition impacts to market from policy uncertainty and the cost of devs.
在能源方面，我们在本季度的毛利上又创下了新纪录，并以近128亿美元的收入结束了这一年，同比增长26.6%。这主要得益于所有地区的高部署以及对MegaPack和电力的持续强劲需求。展望2026年，我们的订单积压情况良好，并在全球范围内实现了良好的多样化。我们预计随着MegaPack 3和MegaBlock的推出，部署量将会增加。然而，由于低成本竞争的加剧、政策不确定性对市场的影响以及开发成本的上升，我们预计利润率会有所压缩。
Services and others margin declined from 10.5 percent to 8.8 percent primarily from higher employee related costs for service centers as we start preparing for the ramp in activity from the growth and the fleet size. We did see a momentum in margin. We did see an improvement in margin from our supercharging business which is included within services and other. Additionally note that our robot-axe business related costs while not material are also included within this.
服务和其他业务的利润率从10.5%下降到8.8%。主要原因是随着我们为即将到来的业务增长和车队规模扩张做好准备，服务中心与员工相关的成本增加。然而，我们在服务和其他业务中包含的超级充电业务的利润率有所改善。此外，请注意，尽管机器人出租车业务相关的成本不算多，但也包含在其中。
Given that we are still in the early phase of our fleet deployment and are still doing a lot of validation testing the revenue and cost per mile metrics are not meaningful to discuss at the moment. Then on total gross margin front you know we ended the quarter with over 20.1 percent something which we haven't achieved for the over the last two years. This improvement came despite the impact of lower fixed cost absorption and the impact of tariffs which were in excess of 500 million in Q4.
鉴于我们仍处于车队部署的早期阶段，且仍在进行大量的验证测试，目前讨论每英里的收入和成本指标没有太大意义。在总体毛利率方面，我们在本季度结束时超过了20.1%，这是我们过去两年未曾达到的水平。尽管固定成本吸收减少以及第四季度超过5亿美元的关税影响带来了压力，这一改善仍得以实现。
Operating expenses increased sequentially primarily from increased stock based compensation for employees and as we started regarding charges on for one operation my store under our 2025 CEO performance award that was deemed to be probable over the water term. Additionally our spend on AI related initiatives and new products like cybercab, semi optimists and mega-prac etc. continues to be on educated levels and we expect this trend to continue for the full year 2026. Net income was negatively impacted from market charges on a Bitcoin holding which depreciated 23 percent as compared to the last quarter and the impact of unfavorable impact of effects primarily from our large income newborns. On the free cash low front we ended up at 1.4 billion. You know we did end up CapEx being slightly below our previous guidance of 9 billion but like Azilon already mentioned this year is going to be a huge investment year from a CapEx perspective and at the moment we were expecting that CapEx would be in excess of 20 billion.
营业费用环比增加，主要原因是员工的股票奖励增加，以及我们开始对一家门店的运营重新计费，该门店属于我们2025年CEO业绩奖励的范围，被认为在长期内可能实现。此外，我们在人工智能相关项目和新产品（如网络出租车、半自动驾驶仪和巨型实务等）上的支出仍保持在较高水平，并预计这种趋势将在2026年全年持续。净收入受到比特币持有量市场波动的负面影响，比上一季度贬值了23%，以及主要由于我们大规模收入的新增不利影响。在自由现金流方面，我们最终达到了14亿美元。虽然我们的资本支出略低于此前预计的90亿美元，但正如Azilon已经提到的，今年将是资本支出方面的大规模投资年，目前我们预计资本支出将超过200亿美元。
You know we'll be paying for six factories namely the refinery, LFP factories, cybercab, semi a new mega factory, the optimist factory. On top of it we'll also be spending money for building our AI compute infrastructure and we'll continue investing in our existing factories to build more capacity and then you know also the related infrastructure along with it and we'll also further expand our fleet of robot-axi and optimists. While this may seem a lot we believe this is the right strategy to position the company for the next era and we'll make such investments as Azilon mentioned in a very capital efficient manner. Note that this does not include potential investments in solar cell manufacturing or our tariff app as we're still in early phase and we plan to provide an update in future quarters.
我们将会投资建设六个工厂，包括炼油厂、LFP工厂、网约车工厂、半导体新超级工厂和乐观主义者工厂。除此之外，我们还会投入资金建设我们的人工智能计算基础设施，并继续投资现有工厂以增加产能，同时也会建设相关基础设施。除此之外，我们还会进一步扩展我们的机器人出租车和乐观主义者的车队。虽然这听起来计划庞大，但我们相信这是一种正确的战略，可以为公司在下一个时代做好准备，并且正如阿齐隆所提到的，我们将会以非常高效的资本使用方式来进行这些投资。需要注意的是，这还不包括在太阳能电池制造或我们的关税应用中的潜在投资，因为这些仍在初期阶段，我们计划在未来几季中提供更多更新。
We're starting not the next chapter but a new book on the progression of this company. 2026 year would be when all of this began. While at times it feels daunting it is going to be the most exciting change in Tesla's history and we could not have even dreamed of embarking on this journey without the support of our customers and our investors. Thanks for again showing the confidence in us and let's get ready for a future of amazing abundance. Thanks. Great. Thank you very much, Vebav. Now we're going to head over to investor questions. As always we will start with questions from say.com. The first question is today there are approximately 90 million cars sold globally each year. Does Tesla have a view based on its robot-axi ambition? What this number will be in five or ten years and how does this impact Tesla's EV strategy to have more models?
我们开始的不仅是下一个章节，而是一本关于公司发展的新书。2026年将是所有这一切的起点。虽然有时可能会感到令人畏惧，但这将是特斯拉历史上最激动人心的变革。没有客户和投资者的支持，我们甚至无法想象踏上这段旅程。感谢你们再次对我们的信任，让我们准备迎接一个充满惊人丰盛的未来。谢谢。好的，非常感谢，Vebav。现在，我们将进入投资者提问环节。和往常一样，我们将从say.com的问题开始。第一个问题是：目前全球每年约有9000万辆汽车售出。特斯拉对基于其机器人出租车计划的未来五到十年内的这一数字有什么看法？这将如何影响特斯拉增加更多车型的电动车策略？
Thanks Travis. As Elon said the future is autonomous and obviously autonomy and cybercab are going to change the global market size and makes quite significantly. I think that's quite obvious. General transportation is going to be better served by autonomy as it will be safer and cheaper and over 90% of vehicle miles traveled are with two or less passengers now which is why we designed cybercab that way. In this new autonomous market we at Tesla have the advantage of efficiency costs and manufacturing at scale that really no one else has and we've built that over the last decades and we believe that that segment that we are creating will grow millions year over year.
谢谢你，Travis。正如Elon所说，未来是自动化的，显而易见，自动化和CyberCab将显著改变全球市场的规模。我认为这是非常明显的。自动化将让普通交通工具更安全、更便宜，而且目前超过90%的车辆行驶里程是有两名或更少的乘客，这也是我们设计CyberCab的初衷。在这个新的自动化市场中，特斯拉在成本效率和规模化生产方面具有优势，这些是其他公司无法比拟的，这是我们在过去几十年中建立起来的优势。我们相信，我们正在创造的这一市场板块将会逐年增长数百万。
I just add to what Lars said there. The point that laws made which is that 90% of miles driven all with one or two passengers or one or two occupants essentially is very important one because that implies that cybercab which is a dedicated two-seater dedicated robot taxi. It's all confusing with the tow and robot taxi and cybercab, sorry about the confusion but in fact in some states we're not allowed to use the word cab or taxi so it's going to get even more strange. It's going to be like cyber vehicle or something cybercar. The cybercab which is a specific vehicle model that we're making does not have steering well or pedals so this is clearly there's no fullback mechanism here.
我来补充一下Lars所说的内容。法律指出的一个关键点是，90%的行驶里程都是由载有一到两名乘客的车辆完成的，这一点非常重要。这意味着"网络车"是一种专门设计的两座自动驾驶出租车。对于术语上的混淆，请见谅，在某些州我们不能使用"出租车"或"的士"这些词，所以情况可能会变得更加复杂，可能要用"网络车辆"或者类似的说法。我们正在研发的这种"网络车"是一种特定的车型，没有方向盘或踏板，所以这里显然没有后备的手动驾驶机制。
This car either drives itself or does not drive and we expect to start production in April. As always it's an S-curve the production rate is an S-curve so it's also very slowly and then grows exponentially then you hit the linear and then ultimately it assesses them toads at what your target volume is. So we would expect over time to make far more cybercabs than all of our other vehicles combined. Given that 90% of distance driven or distance being distance traveled exactly no longer driving is one or two people. I think it's like 80% is just one. So it would mean that long term cybercab would make several times more cybercabs per year than all of our other vehicles combined. Great thank you so much. The next question a bit related are there still plans to launch new models to address different price segments and vehicle types which could materially expand the tim for Tesla?
这辆车要么自动驾驶，要么就不行驶，我们预计将在四月份开始生产。正如往常一样，生产率呈S型曲线，开始非常缓慢，然后呈指数增长，接着进入线性增长阶段，最终达到目标产量。因此，随着时间的推移，我们预计生产的"网络出租车"总量将远超所有其他车型的总和。考虑到行驶距离的90%是只有一两个人乘坐的，而我认为大约80%是一个人乘坐。所以，从长远来看，"网络出租车"每年的产量将远高于其他所有车型的总和。非常感谢。下一个相关的问题是，特斯拉是否还有计划推出新车型以涵盖不同的价格区间和车型，这可能会显著扩大特斯拉的市场规模？
Yeah to further on what we were just talking about we've launched our least expensive models ever over the last few months and our continuing expand that those models globally. Over the last decade we have continually brought down the cost for our vehicles without sacrificing range performance or premiumness and we'll continue to do that as Vibov said investing in our factories but these are all trade-offs of where we spend our time our money and to Elon's point just now with cybercab coming we are aiming to bringing that Tesla premium ride experience to our largest market yet they could be five or ten times our current levels of production.
是的，为了进一步讨论我们刚才谈到的内容，在过去几个月里，我们推出了有史以来最便宜的车型，并正在继续将这些车型推广到全球。在过去的十年里，我们不断降低车辆的成本，但并没有牺牲续航、性能或高端品质。正如Vibov所说的，我们会继续投资于我们的工厂，但这涉及到我们如何分配时间和资金的权衡。正如Elon刚才提到的，随着网络出租车的推出，我们的目标是为我们最大市场带来Tesla优质的乘车体验，这个市场的产量可能是我们目前水平的五到十倍。
This new autonomous market you have to start thinking about us as moving to providing transportation as a service more than the total addressable market for the purchase vehicles alone. Of course we do have plans to have robotaxies in various shapes and sizes but obviously cybercab will be the grand majority of that volume. Yeah the vast majority of miles traveled will be autonomous in the future. You know I would say probably less than I'm just guessing but probably less than 5% of miles driven will be where somebody is actually driving the car themselves in the future maybe as low as 1%.
在这个新的自动驾驶市场中，我们需要转变思维，把重点放在提供“交通即服务”上，而不仅仅是面向购买车辆的总市场。我们当然计划推出各种形状和大小的无人出租车，但显然Cybercab将占据其中的大多数。在未来，绝大多数行驶的里程将会是自动驾驶的。我猜测，也许未来不到5%的行驶里程将是由人类驾驶的，甚至可能低至1%。
Great the next question is historically Tesla has spoken about gross margin per model. Are there standalone gross margin targets for the current models excluding the benefits for FSD sales? You know we've talked about this with the previous two questions but transportation as we know is changing and I think we cannot keep applying the same framework for Macar sales model to the future what we are trying to do. So it has to be looked at it more holistically. In our autonomy software will be the driver for growth from now and as we aim to maximize the global feed we have been laser focused on cox from our side to make sure because that is something which we manage.
好的，下一个问题是：在过去，特斯拉曾谈到过每款车型的毛利率。那么，当前车型是否有独立的毛利率目标，不包括FSD（全自动驾驶）销售的收益？我们在之前的两个问题中已经讨论过这个话题，但考虑到交通行业正在发生变化，我认为我们不能再继续使用传统的车辆销售模式框架来看待未来的发展。因此，必须更全面地看待这个问题。在未来，我们的自动驾驶软件将成为增长的推动力。为了最大化全球市场份额，我们一直密切关注成本控制，因为这是我们可以管理的部分。
So we will keep focusing on that but I think we need to look at it from a different dimension. Yeah like this cybercat that is the whole design of cybercat was it was to optimize the fully considered cost per mile of autonomous driving and you it's a different design problem than if you're trying to design cars for people who will be driving versus being driven. And so cybercat is like I said super optimized for minimum cost per mile and also for a much higher duty cycle. So it would expect cybercat to be used you know probably 50 or 60 hours a week instead of the 10 or 11 hours a week that a driven vehicle is used.
我们将继续关注这个问题，但我认为我们需要从不同的角度来看待它。就像这个Cybercat，它的整个设计理念是为了优化自动驾驶的全过程成本。设计这类车辆与设计给人驾驶的车辆问题不同。正如我所说，Cybercat的设计极大地优化了每英里的最低成本，并具有更高的使用频率。因此，预计Cybercat每周可能使用50到60小时，而传统的驾驶车辆每周使用大约10到11小时。
So you know typically people will might drive their car for an hour and a half a day on average so it's like 10 hours per week out of 168. But I think an autonomous vehicle is likely to be used probably five times as often which means that you need to design the vehicle for a much more wear and tear per unit time and much more resilient. It's more like a commercial truck that's in you know continuous operational close continuous operation is how you design an autonomous vehicle.
通常，人们平均每天可能驾驶汽车一个半小时，所以每周大概是10个小时，而一周共有168个小时。但是，我认为无人驾驶汽车的使用频率可能会是普通汽车的五倍，这意味着车子每单位时间需要承受更多的磨损，因此需要更加耐用。设计无人驾驶汽车时，应该像设计始终处于连续运行状态的商用卡车一样。
And so we will have larger vehicles in the cybercat in the future that are design for full autonomy and we've we've actually shown pictures of this and in fact have shown prototypes so this is not exactly a secret. In fact we've given people rides in them so you know we're not we're not keeping this hiding this light under a bushel here you know it's like we're literally saying what we're going to do and have said what we're going to do for a while.
因此，未来我们将在Cybercat项目中推出更大型的车辆，这些车辆将设计为完全自动驾驶。我们实际上已经展示过这些车辆的图片，甚至展示过原型车，所以这并不是什么秘密。实际上，我们已经让人们体验过这些车辆的试乘。因此，我们并没有把这个计划藏着掖着，而是明确地告诉大家未来的计划，并且已经说了有一段时间了。
So you know I think long term we would really the only vehicles that will make will be autonomous vehicles with the exception of the next generation roadster which we're hoping to debut in April hopefully. It's going to be something out of this world. Fantastic. The next question we'd unfortunately have to skip because it's not related to Tesla and we would like to remind folks who use the SAE platform to please focus these questions on Tesla.
所以你知道，从长远来看，我们真正想制造的车辆只有自动驾驶汽车，除了我们希望能在四月亮相的下一代 Roadster。它会是非常出色的。至于接下来的问题，我们不得不跳过，因为它与特斯拉无关。我们想提醒使用SAE平台的朋友们，请把问题集中在特斯拉上。
So with that in mind we're going to move on to the next question which is what is the current bottleneck to increase the robot taxi deployment and personal use unsupervised FSD? The safety and performance of the most recent models is it the safety performance of the most recent models or is it people to monitor the robot taxis in car or remotely or is there some other blocker? I don't know, Shilk if you wanted to kick off on this one.
考虑到这一点，我们将继续讨论下一个问题，即目前影响无人驾驶出租车部署和个人使用无人监督完全自动驾驶（FSD）的瓶颈是什么？是最近模型的安全性和性能问题吗？还是需要人在车内或远程监控无人驾驶出租车？或者有其他阻碍因素存在？我不确定，Shilk，如果你想先来讨论这个问题。
Yeah we have scaled the robot taxi service that's available to customers over the last year in order to just learn these scaling problems without having to wait for unsupervised. Basically, two goals. One is like learn as much as possible from the fleet with the safety moiter and secondly we laser focus with the engineering team to solve the unsupervised FSD problem. I think we did both. By the end of last year we had a long tail up issues that we were able to turn through and then in the last couple of weeks we had started our unsupervised robot taxi service to public customers in Austin. I think some customers took right class week and also service continues today without any rear cars and things like that.
是的，我们已经扩展了机器人出租车服务，这项服务在过去一年中向客户开放，以便在无需等待无人监督的情况下了解这些扩展过程中的问题。基本上有两个目标。第一个是通过配备安全监控的车队尽可能多地学习，第二个是我们与工程团队紧密合作以解决无人监督的全自动驾驶问题。我认为我们成功实现了这两个目标。在去年年底，我们解决了许多棘手的问题，然后在过去几周内，我们开始向奥斯汀的公众客户提供无人监督的机器人出租车服务。我想有些客户上周已经体验过了，而且服务今天仍在继续，并且不需要后车等辅助措施。
Separately we did scale the fleet size in the Bay Area and in Austin and through that we learned issues with charging and other issues that we would have seen once we sort of scale the unsupervised fleet. So both are happening in parallel. A variant of the software that's used for the robot taxi service was shipped to customers with V14 and customers are huge jump in performance like a lot of happy feedback from customers. Since then we have improved the software significantly as well and customers will continue to see with their own software releases that the software is so good that they're like screaming to remove the tire monitoring software because they're bored inside the car too much.
我们分别在湾区和奥斯汀扩展了车队规模，通过这个过程，我们了解到了一些关于充电和其他问题，这些问题是在我们计划扩展无人驾驶车队时会遇到的。因此，这两项工作是同时进行的。一种用于无人出租车服务的软件版本已经随V14一起发布给客户，客户对性能的提升感到非常满意，反馈很好。从那以后，我们对软件进行了显著的改进，客户在未来的软件更新中会继续体验到这些改进，软件好到让他们觉得坐在车里太无聊，以至于都想要取消轮胎监测软件。
And to that a little bit with what Ashok said about learning about our charging and service needs. We're using our vast network of charging and service centers that really only Tesla has in this space to jump start our infrastructure buildout needs to get ahead of robot taxi autonomous vehicle demand. And we excite that because of this network we are the only company capable of scaling at the rate that is needed for the tsunami of autonomy that is coming. Yeah. Great. Moving on to the next question. After the unveil of the Cybertruck, Elon stated that if it didn't sell well, Tesla would build a more conventional looking pickup. How practical would it be to create this new design on the Cybertruck architecture and could it be conveniently built on the existing production lines?
关于我们充电和服务需求的学习，我想补充一点阿肖克所说的内容。我们正在利用我们庞大的充电和服务中心网络，这在该领域只有特斯拉具备，以加速基础设施的建设，以应对机器人出租车自动驾驶车辆的需求。由于这个网络的存在，我们感到兴奋，因为我们是唯一有能力以所需速度进行扩展的公司，以应对即将到来的自动驾驶潮流。好的，我们继续下一个问题。在发布Cybertruck之后，埃隆表示，如果销量不佳，特斯拉将制造一款外观更传统的皮卡。在Cybertruck架构上创建这种新设计有多实际？能否在现有生产线上轻松地制造？
Actually in its segment Cybertruck continues to be a leader in a selling more than a new electric truck electric truck out there while our competition continues to pull back. But to the question itself from a line standpoint, we always design our lines to be super flexible. We built three and why on the same line. We built SNX on the same line still showing that we can do that. The Cybertruck line was designed in the same way and is one of our most fully ready for autonomy platforms. Yeah. But yeah, we will transition the Cybertruck line to just a full autonomous line. And there's obviously a market there for cargo delivery. Like you say, like localized cargo delivery within a city within a few hundred miles, something like that. There's a pretty, there's a lot of cargo that needs to move locally within a city and an autonomous Cybertruck could be very useful for that.
实际上，在其细分市场中，Cybertruck 仍然是领先者，销售量超过了任何其他新型电动卡车，而我们的竞争对手则在不断衰退。至于生产线的问题，我们总是设计得非常灵活。我们在同一条生产线上生产了Model 3和Model Y，并且仍然在同一条线上生产Model S和Model X，这表明我们具备这样的能力。Cybertruck的生产线也是这样设计的，并且是我们最具自动驾驶准备的一个平台之一。是的，我们计划将Cybertruck的生产线转变为全自动化生产线。在城市范围内几百英里的区域内进行货物运输显然存在市场需求，您提到的本地化货物运输就是一个例子。有大量货物需要在城市范围内进行本地运输，而自动驾驶的Cybertruck可以在这方面发挥巨大作用。
Great. Moving on to the next question. Regarding Optimus, could you share the current number of units deployed in Tesla factories and actively performing production tasks? What specific roles are operations? Are they handling and how has their integration impacted factory efficiency or output? Yeah, we're still very much at the early stages of Optimus. It's still an R&D phase. So we have had Optimus do some basic tasks in the factory. But as we iterate on new versions of Optimus, we defricate the old versions. And so it's not, I wouldn't say it's like it's not it's not it's not it in usage enough actors in a material way. It's more so that the robot can learn. We wouldn't expect to have any kind of significant Optimus production volume until probably the end of this year.
好的，继续下一个问题。关于Optimus机器人，能否分享一下目前在特斯拉工厂中部署的数量以及正在积极执行的生产任务？具体有哪些操作正在进行？它们在处理哪些工作？它们的整合对工厂的效率或产量有什么影响？
我们仍处于Optimus项目的早期阶段，目前仍在研发中。因此，我们让Optimus在工厂执行了一些基础任务。但随着我们开发新的Optimus版本，旧版本就被淘汰了。所以，我不会说Optimus在工厂中已经投入大量使用。更多的是让机器人学习。我们预计不会在今年年底之前实现Optimus的重大生产规模。
Great. And Optimus Gen 3 is an awesome robot that it's an awesome robot that mimises any differences. It's basically it looks like a human. People could be easily confused that it's a human. And this helps our strategy for the AI too because you can learn from how humans do this task and it's very easy to teach the robot in the same way as opposed to previous robots. Yeah, I mean, I guess one thing I should say like is you know, there's a lot of news of like you know, various companies announcing layoffs and whatnot. But you know, at Tesla you know, factory and free mod, we actually expect to increase headcount over time. And to significantly increase output from our factories. So we don't have any layoff plans. We expect to actually increase headcount.
太好了。Optimus Gen 3 是一个非常出色的机器人，它几乎可以消除任何差异。它基本上看起来就像一个人，人们可能很容易把它误认为是人类。这也有助于我们的人工智能战略，因为可以从人类如何完成任务中学习，这使得教会机器人更加简单，与以往的机器人相比，这种教学方式更加容易。是的，我觉得我应该提到一点，就是最近有不少关于各家公司裁员的新闻，但在特斯拉的弗里蒙特工厂，我们实际上预计随着时间的推移会增加员工数量，并显著提高工厂的产量。因此，我们没有裁员计划，反而预计会增加员工数量。
Great. The next question similar to the other autonomy questions, but slightly different. When is FSD going to be 100% unsupervised? Well, it is 100% unsupervised and FSD is 100% unsupervised. I mean, we obviously have cars operating with no one in them and no safety monitor and no follow car or anything like that in Austin right now. For customers, we, you know, we're bringing British very cautious with the rollout. I mean, we, with each successive version as we prove it out and we make sure that there are no sort of unique issues in, you know, in particular cities because like sometimes you get like some very, you know, difficult intersection. And it'll be an intersection where a lot of humans have accidents, by the way. There's like some, some pretty nutty intersections where there are a lot of humans make mistakes and have accidents in various cities.
很好。下一个问题类似于其他关于自动驾驶的问题，但略有不同。自动驾驶系统什么时候能够实现100%无人监督呢？其实，它已经实现了100%无人监督的操作。我是说，我们显然有车辆在奥斯汀运营，车里没有人、没有安全监控人员，也没有跟随车辆等。对于客户而言，我们在推出方面非常谨慎。每次版本升级时，我们都要确保在特别的城市中不会出现独特的问题，因为有时候你会遇到一些非常复杂的十字路口，而且这些地方也是很多人发生事故的地点。事实上，在某些城市，有些非常复杂的十字路口很多人犯错并发生事故。
So we want to make sure that, you know, FSD can handle those unusual intersections. Like if you take LA, for example, where Wilson, Santa Monica, combined is like there's about, I don't know, 20 traffic lights. And people are constantly having accidents there. So you want to make sure that FSD can handle unique things in a particular city. So, and we're actually just being paranoid about safety. But with each successive release of FSD, we will reduce the amount of drive and monitoring that's needed proportionate to the safety of the FSD build.
我们希望确保全自动驾驶（FSD）系统能够处理那些不寻常的路口。比如在洛杉矶，像Wilson和Santa Monica这样的路口，可能有大约20个红绿灯，那里经常发生交通事故。所以我们希望FSD能够应对某个特定城市的独特情况。实际上，我们对安全问题非常谨慎。不过，随着FSD的每一次更新，我们会根据FSD版本的安全性逐步减少驾驶和监控的需求。
Great. As it relates to Robotexy, what has surprised you about the rollout so far? We've talked about what's constrained the fleet expansion to date, but it appears there are 200 vehicles based on public tracking. Is that something that we can confirm? I don't say there's anything that's really surprised us because we had a large fleet, we had all the metrics. So there was not sort of a surprise. It was just continued work to grind down on the long-term issues. And that's what enabled us to launch the unsupervised service in Austin.
好的。关于Robotexy的推出，到目前为止有什么让你感到意外的地方吗？我们已经讨论过什么限制了车队扩张，但根据公众追踪来看，似乎有200辆车。这一点我们能确认吗？我不能说有什么真正让我们感到意外的事情，因为我们有一个庞大的车队，并且掌握了所有的数据指标。所以没有什么让我们感到意外的。我们只是继续努力解决长期问题。这也是我们能够在奥斯汀推出无人监督服务的原因。
Yeah. And I mean, in terms of Robotexy vehicles, carrying paid customers, I think we're well over 500 at this point, between the Bay Area and Austin. Yeah, they're waiting amongst self, like, vehicles depending on the load, but yeah, you can have more vehicles doing peak times and then fewer vehicles in the off hours. Yeah. This will probably, you know, double every month, type of thing. It's going to, it's on an exponential curve.
好的。我是说，就机器人出租车运载付费乘客而言，我认为我们现在在湾区和奥斯汀已经超过500辆了。是的，它们会根据负载情况在车辆之间相互等待，不过在高峰时段你可以投入更多的车辆，而在非高峰时段则减少车辆数量。这样的情况可能每个月都会翻倍，这将呈现指数增长的趋势。
I mean, one other thing people forget that, you know, we've been deliberate on all this in the sense that we have the supporting infrastructure already been in place, whether it's service centers, charging. Yes, we'll have to augment as the fleet grows, depending upon the density of where the demand is and whatnot. But it's not something like we just stumble upon it and we're starting to, we've been at it for years. Yes, not every city is designed the same way, same thing. Our infrastructure is also not same in every city, but you have to give us credit that it's been a journey. And like Lars said, if there's some company which can do it, we've only been at it, so we should be able to deliver much better.
我想，人们常常忘记，我们在这方面早已做好了准备。我们已经建立了支持的基础设施，比如服务中心和充电设施。是的，随着车队规模的扩大，我们确实需要根据需求的密度等因素进行扩充。但这并不是我们刚刚开始的事情，而是多年努力的结果。并不是每个城市的设计方式相同，我们的基础设施在每个城市也不尽相同，但我们走过了一段漫长的旅程，这值得认可。正如Lars所说，如果有公司能够做好这件事，那就是我们，因为我们一直专注于此，因此我们应该能够做得更好。
Great. The next question is about Chase cars, which we already covered. So moving on to the last question, Elon, you've been spending significant personal time on Tesla's chip design. Yeah. What was the forcing function behind this increased involvement? And do you think external chip sales will represent a significant portion of Tesla's valuation by the end of the decade? Well, I mean, I tend to spend time on whatever the most critical issue is for the company and completing the AI5 chip design and having it be a great chip is arguably the number one most critical thing to get done, which is why I'm spending more time on that than currently anything else at Tesla.
好的。下一个问题是关于Chase汽车的，我们之前已经讨论过了。所以我们继续到最后一个问题。埃隆，您在特斯拉的芯片设计上投入了大量的个人时间。是什么原因促使您增加了这种投入？您认为到本世纪末，外部芯片销售会占特斯拉估值的很大一部分吗？嗯，我的时间通常会花在公司最关键的问题上，而完成AI5芯片的设计并确保它是一款优秀的芯片，可以说是现在最重要的任务，这也是为什么我在这方面投入了比在特斯拉其他任何事情上都多的时间。
I spend pretty much every Saturday on this and I'm trying to be every Tuesday. So it's like, if I'm spending my Saturdays on something, it's going to be something pretty important. I do think AI5 will be a very good chip. And I feel quite confident about the design at this point. And then AI6, which will follow that, it will be aspirationally would follow that in under a year will be yet another big leap beyond AI5. So I feel I feel pretty good about our chip strategy right now. And but in terms of selling it outside of Tesla, we first need to make sure we have enough chips for the whole of our vehicle production and all of our optimist production.
我几乎每个星期六都花时间在这上面，并且我也想每个星期二参与。因此，如果我花费周六的时间做某事，那么这件事肯定非常重要。我确实觉得AI5将是一个非常出色的芯片，并且我对现在的设计很有信心。接下来的AI6将在不到一年的时间内面世，将在AI5的基础上再次实现重大飞跃。所以我对我们的芯片战略感到相当满意。不过，在将芯片出售给特斯拉以外的公司之前，我们首先需要确保我们的汽车生产和所有Optimus生产有足够的芯片。
And then we will actually use the AI5 chips in our data centers. We already used the AI4 chips in our data centers. So when we do training, it's a combination of the AI4 chips and Nvidia hardware, primarily that we do training with. So, but you say by the end of the decade, I mean, that's like things are changing so fast. There's hard to imagine what happens at the end of the decade. I mean, we might, I mean, when I look ahead at say what's limiting factor for Tesla growth, if you go say three or four years out, I think it actually is chip production. Is there enough AI logic and enough memory enough RAM for a volume? And right now, I see that as being the thing that probably limits our growth in three or four years, which in addition to that, we're not selling chips outside of Tesla because we need them.
然后我们将在数据中心实际使用AI5芯片。我们已经在数据中心使用了AI4芯片。因此，当我们进行训练时，主要是结合AI4芯片和Nvidia的硬件进行训练。不过如果你说到这个十年末，事情变化得太快了，很难想象十年末会发生什么。我认为，如果展望未来三到四年，特斯拉增长的限制因素实际上是芯片产能。是否有足够的AI逻辑、足够的内存和RAM来支撑大规模生产？目前，我认为这可能是在三四年内限制我们增长的因素。此外，我们不会向特斯拉外部出售芯片，因为我们自己也需要这些芯片。
And in fact, I think it's going to make sense. And this is definitely going to be sort of a controversial thing, but I think Tesla needs to build a Terra Fab. I mentioned this at the shoulder meeting, but even when we look at the output of the best case output of all of our key suppliers, and I would say even beyond suppliers, like strategic partners, like Samsung, TSMC, and Micron, and we say like, what's the most you could possibly make? Then it's not enough. I think in order to remove the constraint, the probable constraint in three or four years, we're going to have to build a Tesla Terra Fab, a very big fab that includes logic, memory, and packaging, domestically.
事实上，我认为这是有道理的。虽然这可能会引发一些争议，但我觉得特斯拉需要建立一个"Terra Fab"。我在股东大会上提到过这一点，即使我们考虑到所有主要供应商的最佳产量，包括战略合作伙伴如三星、台积电和美光，并询问他们能生产的最大量，结果显示仍然不够多。我认为，为了消除未来三到四年内可能出现的限制，我们需要在国内建造一个特斯拉"Terra Fab"——一个非常大的工厂，涵盖逻辑、内存和封装。
And that's actually also going to be very important to ensure that we are protected against any geopolitical risks. I think people may be underweighting some of the geopolitical risks that are going to be a major factor in a few years. So now a lot of people will say that's crazy. Fab is really hard. I'm like, yes, I know, Fab is really hard. I don't think they're easy. We do a lot of hard things. We didn't use to have car factories, we didn't use to have battery cell factories or lithium refineries or mega-packed factories or these other things. We figured it out. So I think it's I think if we don't do the Tesla Terra Fab, we're going to be limited by a supplier output of chips and I think maybe memory is an even bigger limited than AI logic.
这实际上也很重要，以确保我们能抵御任何地缘政治风险。我认为人们可能低估了一些将在未来几年成为重大因素的地缘政治风险。现在，很多人可能会说这太疯狂了。制造厂真的很难。我会说，是的，我知道，制造厂真的很难。我不认为它们容易。我们做过很多困难的事情。我们以前没有汽车工厂、电池单元工厂、锂精炼厂或大型工厂，但我们攻克了这些难题。所以，我认为如果我们不做特斯拉的Terraform工厂，我们将会受到芯片供应商产能的限制。我认为，或许内存比人工智能逻辑更为紧缺。
So for example, we have chips supply deals with TSMC in Arizona and Samsung and Texas, but currently there are no advanced memory fabs at scale in the United States. There are zero, literally zero. Hopefully, you know, my phone will have something going in a few years because it had quoted in Idaho, you know, whether make a lot of potato chips or we need to make computer chips too. So anyway, we're working with our strategic partners on the chip front memory and logic, but I think we've got to also try our hand at building a large scale fab that integrates logic memory and packaging.
例如，我们在亚利桑那州与台积电以及在得克萨斯州与三星有芯片供应协议，但目前美国还没有规模化的先进存储芯片工厂。真的是一个也没有。希望在几年内，我的手机能有所突破，因为在爱达荷州有计划，不仅可以生产土豆片，也要生产电脑芯片。所以，我们正在与战略伙伴合作，专注于内存和逻辑芯片，但我认为我们也需要尝试建立一个集成逻辑、内存和封装的大规模工厂。
And if we don't do that, we're just going to be fundamentally limited by supply chain, especially if there's some geophilic, if in a worst case geophilic situation, it would be quite a severe situation. So I think we would be quite frankly, it would be crazy not to try the tariff fab. So yeah. We'll have a bigger announcement on this in the future. Awesome. With that, we're going to move on to analyst questions. The first analyst is a manual from Wolf Research. A manual, please feel free to unmute yourself.
如果我们不这么做，我们就会受到供应链的根本限制，尤其是在最糟糕的情况下，如果遇到地缘政治因素，这将是一个相当严峻的局面。因此，我认为我们坦白说，不尝试关税制造这种策略是很不明智的。所以，是的。我们将在未来对此有更大举措的公布。太好了。接下来，我们将转到分析师提问环节。第一位是来自Wolf Research的Emanuel。Emanuel，请随时解除静音提问。
Great. Thank you so much. It's a manual Rosner from Wolf Research. My first question is on the CAPEX, you signal a pretty large increase to over $20 billion for this year. What's hoping to better understand where the investments are going? Any way if to dimension for us which of the product line of technology is account for the bulk of the increase. And also, do you view this as like one time in nature of 2026 or I guess how much of this is an ongoing level of high spending for a number of years.
好的，非常感谢。这是来自Wolf Research的Rosner的手册。我的第一个问题是关于资本支出（CAPEX）的，你们表示今年的资本支出将大幅增加到超过200亿美元。希望能更好地了解这些投资将流向哪些领域。能否为我们说明一下哪些产品线或技术占了大部分增加。你们是否认为这是一次性的，还是会持续高水平支出到2026年，或者说这种高支出水平会持续多少年。
And then just finally still on that. With that level of spending, you're going to be burning cash. How should we think about the cash balance or any other way to finance this? Yeah. So, you know, I try to put this in my opening remarks too, but I'll try and go a little bit deeper. There's about six factories which we are starting production in this year. So, there's a lot of cash, CAPEX which is going into that. Then as we are trying to scale optimists, we need a lot more compute.
关于这个问题，最后再说一点。在这种支出水平下，你们将会消耗现金。我们应该如何看待现金余额，或者有没有其他方式来为此融资？
是的，这一点我尝试在开场白中提到过，但现在我会更详细地说明。今年我们有大约六个工厂开始投产，因此会投入大量现金和资本支出。同时，随着我们尝试扩大规模，我们需要更多的计算能力。
So, we're putting more money towards compute as well. And then for training. And then we're also going to be spending money to expand the capacity at existing factories. On top of it, you know, we're just keep in mind that we're not none of these numbers which I shared of 20 billion factors in anything to do with the solar fab or the semiconductor chip fab. Those would be, as you know, mentioned, would come later on. And you think your second part of your question was, is this one off or would we expect more?
因此，我们也将在计算方面投入更多资金。同时，我们还将为培训增加投入。此外，我们还准备投入资金以扩大现有工厂的产能。不过，请记住，我这边提到的200亿额度并不包括太阳能工厂或半导体芯片工厂的任何相关事项。如您所知，这些投资会在后续进行。而您第二个问题是关于这是否是一次性投资，或者我们是否会有更多类似的投入。
I think we're getting into this investment phase because we have big aspirations. And when you look at it, some of these aspirations are, I call them as infrastructure play, especially if you have to do a chip fab and we have to do a solar cell manufacturing fab, those are infrastructure plays. And that funding takes a little bit longer. And you would be an investment cycle for a little bit longer. Initially, third part of your question was, how are we going to fund it? Initially, obviously, we have over 44 billion of cash and investments on the books. So, we'll use our internal resources, but there are ways where we can fund it, especially when we look at the robot-axi fleet because, you know, anytime you have a consistent stream of cash flow, you can go and get money from the banks.
我认为我们正在进入这个投资阶段，是因为我们有远大的目标。仔细想想，其中一些目标可以被称为基础设施项目，比如建造芯片制造厂和太阳能电池制造厂，这些都是大型基础设施项目。这类投资需要的资金周期会比较长，因此投资周期也会相对较长。您第三部分的问题是，我们将如何筹集资金？首先，我们账面上有超过440亿美元的现金和投资，因此我们会利用内部资源。但还有一些其他的筹资方法，尤其是在我们考虑无人驾驶出租车车队的时候，因为一旦有稳定的现金流，我们就可以从银行获得融资。
And we have had conversations with banks about it. And that is something how we're going to do it. And then on the infrastructure play side, yeah, like I said, we don't have a number yet, but given that it's an infrastructure player, it's a longer tail, we will have to look at a little bit more in terms of how we fund it, whether it's through more debt or other needs. Great. Our next question comes from Andrew from Morgan Stanley. Andrew, please feel three to one years off. Great, thanks so much for taking the question. I just want to start on the DXAI investment that you guys announced today. You talked about there being some collaboration between the companies. So, I'm just hoping to get more information or if you're hoping that you could shed more light on what that looks like and maybe how the work XAI is doing can be leveraged at Tesla and vice versa.
我们已经就此事与银行进行了交流。这是我们将要做的事情之一。在基础设施方面，正如我所说的，我们还没有具体数字，但由于它是一个基础设施项目，会有较长的周期，因此我们需要更仔细地考虑如何融资，是通过更多的债务还是其他需求。好的。我们的下一个问题来自摩根士丹利的安德鲁。安德鲁，请在三年内自由进行。好的，非常感谢你的提问。我想从你们今天宣布的DXAI投资开始。你提到过公司之间会有一些合作。所以，我希望能获得更多的信息，或者希望你能更详细地说明这将如何进行，以及XAI的工作如何能够在特斯拉中得到利用，反之亦然。
Yeah, I mean, if you looked at the disclosure which we also put in there, we do talk about this is literally a furtherance of our master plan for. And even today, if you look at Tesla vehicles, we are using GROC in there. And as we look at things, whether we can do it ourselves, yes, there are a lot of things which we can do ourselves, but if there are things which XAI can help accelerate our progress, then why should we not do that? And that is the reason why we've gone ahead with such an investment because this is part of the strategic initiative because as it is, if you remember, I talked about how many things which we're doing ourselves, if there are ways and means we can find efficient ways for others to help us.
是的，我的意思是，如果你查看我们提供的披露信息，我们确实提到这是我们总体规划的进一步实施。即便是现在，如果你看看特斯拉的车辆，我们已经在使用GROC了。我们在考虑事情时，会问自己是否可以独自完成，是的，我们确实可以独自完成很多事情，但如果XAI能够帮助我们加速进展，那我们为什么不利用呢？这就是我们进行这种投资的原因，因为这是战略性的一部分。正如我之前提到的，我们目前正在自己做很多事情，但如果能找到有效的方法让其他人来帮助我们，我们当然乐于接受。
And actually, I literally fits into that old, so that's why we went ahead with it. We just had a lot of investors ask us to do this, as it was like a lot of investor, Tesla shareholders said we should invest in XAI, so that's like we're just doing what shareholders like ask us to do pretty much. But GROC will be very helpful in, say, maximizing the efficiency of the management of a large autonomous fleet. So, I mean, if you've got an autonomous fleet that's, you know, in a future 10 million vehicles or 10 millions of vehicles, then optimizing the efficient use of that fleet, GROC will be, I think, a way better than any heuristic solution or sort of manually managed solution.
实际上，我确实完全符合那个老框架，所以这就是我们决定继续推进的原因。我们有很多投资者要求我们这样做，就像许多特斯拉股东建议我们投资于XAI，所以我们基本上只是按照股东的要求去做。但是，GROC将在最大化管理大型自动车队的效率方面非常有帮助。也就是说，如果将来有一个由一千万辆汽车组成的自动车队，那么在优化这支车队的高效使用方面，我认为GROC将比任何启发式解决方案或者手动管理的方案都要优越。
And if you say managing a large team of autonomous robots to build a factory or build a refinery, you know, and say a hypothetical example, a rare earth or a finery, which we do desperately need in America. Then you say, well, what's going to organize the autonomous robots to build that or a finery? That would, you know, you need kind of need an orchestra conductor. And so then GROC would be kind of the orchestra conductor for the autonomous robots to build the hypothetical and it might not be hypothetical in the future. I'm just saying it's not it can't be on our plans. But, you know, we do need a lot more ore-fining capacity in the US.
如果你说要管理一大批自主机器人来建造一个工厂或炼油厂，比如说一个假设的稀土精炼厂，而这是美国非常需要的。那么，你会问，是什么来组织这些自主机器人去建造这个精炼厂呢？就像需要一个乐队的指挥一样，而GROC就会成为这些自主机器人的指挥，来建设这个假设的项目，虽然将来可能并不只是个假设。我只是说这不能在我们的计划之外，但我们确实需要在美国增加很多矿石精炼能力。
So, then what's going to manage, they say, let's say, a thousand autonomous robots to do your unmute right now. So, I'm not sure if you're trying to ask a follow-up question. Ready. We're going to move on to the next question, which is coming from Dan Levi at Barclays. Dan, please feel free. Great. Great. Thank you. You on you talked about some of the constraints on memory given the very tight supply. Are there any near-term constraints on procuring memory? And if there are, to what extent could you look at modifying the functionality in the vehicle, similar to what you did in 21 when we saw shortages on MCUs and maybe how are you thinking about bridging in the next few years?
好的，那么现在有谁能够管理，比如说，一千个自主机器人来完成你的工作呢？我不太确定你是否正在尝试提问后续问题。准备好了吗？我们将转到下一个问题，这是来自巴克莱银行的丹·莱维提问。丹，请随意提问。太好了，谢谢。在你们谈到由于供应非常紧张，内存方面的一些限制时，有没有什么短期内获取内存的限制？如果有的话，你们在多大程度上会考虑修改车辆的功能，类似于21年在微控制器短缺时所采取的措施？此外，你们如何考虑未来几年的过渡问题？
Well, the Tesla AI is very compute-efficient and very memory-efficient. So, I think one of the metrics once you consider for any given AI model is the intelligence program gigabyte. Especially when you're constrained on RAM, having an AI that has very high intelligence density per gigabyte. So, you can say, like, given under a gigabyte, how much functionality can you get out of it? I actually think Tesla is ahead of the rest of the world in intelligence density of AI by an order of magnitude or more. Like, it's this is going to sound like a pretty bold statement, but I kind of know what the intelligence efficiency of the big models are like rock and like the honest and you know, bunch of the other models. And Tesla's AI is like, in terms of memory efficiency of I think more than an order of magnitude better. So, so that puts us in a pretty good position, actually, for scaling.
好的，特斯拉的人工智能在计算和内存效率方面非常出色。我认为在评估任何AI模型时，需要考虑的一个指标就是每GB的智能程序密度。特别是在内存受限的情况下，拥有一个每GB智能密度非常高的AI是非常有益的。就是说，在不到一GB的内存下，你能从中获得多少功能？我实际上认为，在AI的智能密度上，特斯拉比全球其他公司领先一个数量级或者更多。这可能听起来很大胆，但我对其他一些大模型的智能效率有一些了解，而特斯拉的AI在内存效率方面可能好一个数量级以上。这为我们在扩展方面奠定了良好的基础。
And we don't we actually do we do think that there's we do have a solution for logic and memory for let's say the next roughly three years. But we start going beyond three years and we look at the scaling plans and how many fabs are getting built. And especially if you factor in geopolitical uncertainty, you know, there's always there's always risk that maybe the most chips don't arrive that people were expecting to arrive. So, that's that's why I think we need to have more capacity in the US just in case chips don't stop arriving for any reason. But you know, this is this is really existential for Tesla because if you know, Optimus is completely useless without an AI chip. It's not like, you know, at least the cars we can put steering wheels and pedals in or retrofit them if need be, but but Optimus is just a mannequin without you know, it's like the 10 man or whatever was advised, but even worse, these are 10 man could walk Optimus running and bailed or just sit there without an AI chip.
我们确实认为，在接下来的大约三年内，我们有一个关于逻辑和存储的解决方案。然而，当我们开始展望三年以后的计划，尤其是考虑到地缘政治的不确定性和越来越多的芯片厂的建设时，总会存在一定的风险，比如无法按预期获得所有所需的芯片。因此，我认为我们需要在美国建立更多的产能，以防某些原因导致芯片无法到达。这对特斯拉来说是关乎生存的问题，因为如果没有 AI 芯片，Optimus 是完全无用的。至少我们的汽车可以安装方向盘和踏板，必要时还可以进行改装，但没有 AI 芯片的 Optimus 就只是一具模型，就像《绿野仙踪》里的铁皮人，但情况更差，因为铁皮人至少还能走路。但是没有 AI 芯片的 Optimus 就只是一个无法动弹的模型。
So we've got a good solution for a significant scale through you know, for the next to roughly three years beyond that, we will be supplier limited. And so we've got to figure out some game plan to not be supplier limited. Great. Our next question is going to come from George I can't accord George, please feel free to unmute yourself. Hi everyone. I thank you for taking my my question. So you know, they're going to serve of startups, particularly from China entering the humanoid market and wondering what the long-term competitive advantages that keep Tesla head are and how based on what you've seen will Optimus fundamentally differ from these competitors. Thank you.
所以，我们目前有一个很好的解决方案，可以在未来的大约三年内实现大规模操作。然而，在此之后，我们将受到供应商的限制。因此，我们需要制定一个计划来避免这种供应限制。好的，接下来的问题来自乔治。乔治，请随时取消静音发言。大家好，谢谢你们回答我的问题。你知道的，现在有很多创业公司，尤其是来自中国的公司，正在进入智能机器人的市场。我想知道特斯拉能够在长期内保持领先的竞争优势是什么？根据你们的观察，Optimus将如何与这些竞争者有本质上的不同？谢谢。
Well, I do think that the, but by far the biggest competition for humanoid robots will be from China. China is incredibly good at scaling manufacturing. Actually quite good at AI as you can see from you know, the open source or not the open source, but the sort of I guess some of them are open actually, but basically the models that China is distributing for free are actually quite good and they keep getting better. So China is very good at AI, very good at manufacturing and will definitely be the the toughest competition for Tesla. To the best about knowledge, we don't see any significant competitors outside of China, but China will definitely be the top competition is there's no two ways about it. So I always think like people sort of outside of China kind of underestimate China, China is not as good our next level.
嗯，我确实认为，迄今为止，来自中国的人形机器人将是最大的竞争对手。中国在制造业规模化方面非常出色。他们在人工智能方面也相当厉害，你可以从一些正在开放的或免费发布的模型中看出这一点，这些模型确实很出色，并且不断进步。所以，中国在人工智能和制造业方面都非常优秀，肯定会成为特斯拉最强劲的竞争对手。据我们所知，除了中国，我们没有看到其他显著的竞争者，但中国绝对会是最强劲的竞争者，这一点毋庸置疑。我总觉得，国外的人有点低估了中国，中国的水平非常不一般。
So you know, I guess, you know, we're going to build, we think we think Optimus will be much more capable than any robot that we are aware of under development in China. So we think we'll be ahead in terms of the real world intelligence, the electromagnetic mechanical dexterity, especially the hand design, which is a by far the hottest thing in the robot. In fact, I tell you there's really three hard things about humanoid robots. The building an incredible hand that has the same degrees of freedom and dexterity as a human hand is an incredibly difficult engineering challenge. Then there's the real world AI and scaling production. Those are the three hardest problems by far for humanoid robot. I think we're where Tesla has is the only company that actually has all three of those components.
所以，你知道，我想，我们会建立一个比我们所了解的中国正在研发的任何机器人都更加先进的Optimus 机器人。我们认为在现实世界的智能、电磁机械的灵活性，尤其是手部设计方面，我们会领先。手部设计无疑是机器人中最重要的部分。实际上，我告诉你，类人机器人有三个非常困难的挑战。制造一个具有与人手同样自由度和灵活性的手是一个极其困难的工程挑战。然后是现实世界中的人工智能和批量生产。这些绝对是类人机器人的三大难题。我认为特斯拉是唯一同时拥有这三方面能力的公司。
Great. And our last question is going to come from Colin at Oppenheimer. Colin, please feel free to unmute yourself. Thanks so much. You talked a lot about the CAPEX, Ben, but this is incredibly ambitious technology development program that you're talking about. Can you talk a little bit about the R&D's Ben and how you're thinking about this energy of the different components, you know, particularly on the hardware side. You know, if you think about, you know, batteries into into chips and the into memory and the efficiency of the system, and what sort of advantages you think you'll end up getting out of, you know, some of these purpose built devices that he'll end up integrating into multiple end markets.
好的。我们的最后一个问题来自奥本海默的科林。科林，请取消静音后开始提问，非常感谢。 本，你谈了很多关于资本支出的内容，但你所讨论的这个技术开发计划极具雄心壮志。你能否稍微谈谈研发方面的情况，特别是在硬件方面的考虑？ 比如从电池到芯片，再到内存，以及系统的效率方面，你是怎么考虑的？另外，你认为在使用这些专门打造的设备并将其整合进入多个终端市场后，会获得什么样的优势呢？
Well, really, all we're trying to do is make sure that we can scale to very high volume with autonomous vehicles with a human of robots and that we address geopolitical risk, which I think, you know, there's so many companies out there that are asleep with the switch with regard to geopolitical risk. They're like, they just have their head in the sand and hope, nothing bad will happen. Where more paranoid than that, I always think of Andy Groves, famous statement, only the paranoid survive. Why did he come up with that statement at Intel? Let's think. So I think there's a lot of wisdom in that statement. So we're going to be paranoid and make sure that we can continue to build batteries and robots and AI chips no matter what happens. And companies that don't do that, a bunch of them will cease to exist. I mean, remember, all this comes out of necessity. It's not that we want to do it. It's just we have no choice.
我们的目标实际上是确保能够在非常高的业务量下，通过自主车辆和机器人来进行扩展，并且应对地缘政治风险。我认为，有太多公司在这方面疏于防范，仿佛鸵鸟埋头于沙中，寄希望于不会发生任何不好的事情。相比之下，我们则更为警觉，就像安迪·格罗夫（Andy Grove）著名的观点：只有偏执狂才能生存。他在英特尔提出这个观点的原因值得我们思考，我认为其中蕴藏着很大的智慧。因此，我们要保持警觉，确保无论发生什么，都能继续制造电池、机器人和人工智能芯片。不这样做的公司中，有许多将不复存在。这一切都是出于必要，并不是我们想要这样做，只是我们别无选择。
Yeah, I mean, we built the most advanced lithium refinery in the world. By the way, it's not just like our lithium refinery in Corpus Christi, it's not just a copy of what others have done. It's an entirely new process that is fundamentally more efficient and more advanced than anything else in the world. The same is true of our of our cathode refinery here in Austin. We wish others would build this. Other people please, the love of God, the name of all that is holy, and others please build this, build this stuff. That's not the first time you've done this. Exactly. I mean, this is not the first time you've said something like this. Why do we have to build these things? Why can others not also please consume those? These things. This is a very hard to build these things. We build them out of desperation. Nobody else is building lithium refineries and cathode refineries. We're pretty much not just the largest, but also the only lithium refinery in cathode refinery in America.
是的，我的意思是，我们建造了世界上最先进的锂精炼厂。顺便说一下，不只是我们在科珀斯克里斯蒂的锂精炼厂，不是简单地复制其他人的设计。这是一个全新的工艺，比世界上其他任何工艺都更有效、更先进。我们在奥斯汀的阴极精炼厂也是如此。我们希望其他人也能建设这样的设施。拜托，为了上帝的爱，为了一切神圣的名义，其他人也请来建造这样的东西。这也不是我们第一次这样做了。没错，我的意思是，这不是您第一次这样说了。为什么我们必须亲自建造这些东西？为什么其他人不能使用这些呢？建造这些东西真的很困难。我们是出于无奈才建的。没有其他人在建设锂精炼厂和阴极精炼厂。可以说，我们不仅是美国最大的，而且几乎是唯一的锂精炼和阴极精炼厂。
We're making moves to make sure that no matter what happens, it's a little prosper. Great. Unfortunately, that's all the time we have for Q&A today. We really appreciate everyone's questions and we look forward to talking to you next quarter. Thank you very much and goodbye. All right. Hey, everybody. I'm just going to turn the microphone up here. Make sure that's all good. We can go through some key points from the call as well as just earnings in general today. So let me know if the audio is good. It looks like it should be. I was like to give it a second here, though, as we switch over. We green because audio is good. That would be the test learning audio. But let me know if my audio is also green.
我们正在采取措施，以确保无论发生什么情况，都能稍微提升繁荣。太好了。很遗憾，今天的问答时间就到这里。我们非常感谢大家提出的问题，并期待在下个季度与大家交流。非常感谢，再见。
好的，大家好。我现在就把麦克风音量调高一些，确保一切正常。今天我们可以回顾一下电话会议中的一些重点以及整体财报情况。如果音频没问题，请告诉我。看起来应该是没问题的。我还是等一下，转接期间确认一下。如果音频正常，我们会看到绿灯，这是我们测试音频的方式。不过请告诉我，我的音频是否也是正常的。
All right. Looks good. Cool. Yeah. Well, yeah. As mentioned there, nice to see the nice, really nice to see the Greg. Thank you. I really appreciate that super chat. That's awesome. Thanks, Greg. Yeah. So first off, yeah, nice to see the improved audio quality. It made understanding the points that were being made a lot a lot easier. So kudos to Tesla for that. That's that's really necessary. And hopefully we'll be the case going forward. So awesome update there. Other major updates from this call, though. I think probably the, well, we can kind of go sequentially, I think. So model S and X discontinued. That is unfortunate, you know, for those consumers of those vehicles, you know, it was a product that someday I would have maybe considered buying, you know, especially the model X.
好的，看来不错。很好，是的。如前所述，很高兴看到Greg，真的很高兴见到Greg。谢谢你。我真的很感激你的超级留言。这太棒了。谢谢Greg。首先，很高兴看到音质的提升，这让理解所说的内容变得更加容易，因此赞扬Tesla，这真的很必要，希望以后也是如此，这是很棒的更新。不过，这次电话会议的其他重大更新，我认为可能我们可以按顺序讲。我认为，Model S和Model X停产了。这对这些车型的消费者来说是不幸的，因为它是一个我有一天可能会考虑购买的产品，尤其是Model X。
It's a bummer to see those go away. It's also not terribly surprising. This has been, you know, as alluded to this and mentioned this as a possibility for for years. When you were already kind of considering that. And then if you look at the other vehicle deliveries and how that's trended, you know, quarter of a quarter year, etc. for the last couple of years, you can see that these aren't, you know, doing super strong in terms of the demand and the production volume necessitated, particularly after model three and model Y were introduced and obviously became so successful, really ate into a lot of the market that S and X were were in. So at this point, I think Tesla, not necessarily looking for an excuse gear of them, but I think that, hey, we've got this space that we could put to use for Optimus.
看到这些东西消失总让人感到有点失落，但也不算特别意外。多年来，这种可能性一直被提及和预料。当你开始考虑到这一点时，然后再看看其他车型在过去几年里的交付情况和趋势，比如每季度、每年，你就能看到这些车型在需求和生产量方面并没有特别强劲的表现。特别是在 Model 3 和 Model Y 推出并取得巨大成功后，它们确实侵占了 Model S 和 Model X 所在的市场份额。因此，目前我认为特斯拉并不是在寻找摆脱它们的借口，更像是发现可以利用这些空间来发展新的项目，比如 Optimus。
This is probably something that kind of makes sense to do anyway. So let's go ahead and, you know, make this change. But it is sad, especially like Model S, which really where all this started, I guess you'd go back to the roadster before that. But sort of Model S was the card that I think really put Tesla on the map. Whether you want to argue that was Model S or Model 3, it's it's pretty much definitely one of those two vehicles. So it is, you know, worth the morning, but also just appreciating the massive success that has come from from that vehicle and obviously from the earliest days of roadster as well. So I don't know, it's a lot to be appreciative of the product lifecycle that that we now see coming to the end there.
这大概是件本来就该做的事情。所以我们就推进，进行这个改变吧。不过这确实有点令人难过，特别是对于Model S来说，因为这款车可以说是特斯拉崛起的起点。当然，你可以说它的起步是从最初的Roadster开始的，但Model S是让特斯拉真正声名鹊起的车型之一。当然，有人可能会辩称是Model 3，但无论是Model S还是Model 3，毫无疑问，它们中的一个使特斯拉被世人所熟知。因此，我们既要为这个阶段结束感到惋惜，也要庆祝从这款车、以及最初的Roadster所获得的巨大成功。总之，我们应该感激这个产品生命周期，即使它现已走到了尽头。
In terms of the future, probably the most significant update I think on this call would have been the $20 billion in CapEx. As they said, they I think they didn't even get to $9 billion this year. So that represents a pretty significant increase more than doubling. And obviously, I think caught investors by surprise if you were watching the Tesla after hours thing. Right when that $20 billion came, number came out. That's when the stock started to taper off from some of the success it was having earlier. Obviously, still up, you know, almost 2% after hours. So it's recovered a bit, but I think it went from up three to basically flat very shortly following that that comments.
关于未来，可能这次电话会议上最重要的更新就是那 200 亿美元的资本支出。他们表示，今年的资本支出甚至没有达到 90 亿美元。所以，这代表着一个非常显著的增加，几乎是翻倍。显然，我认为如果你在关注特斯拉的盘后动向，这一消息让投资者感到意外。当公布那 200 亿美元的数据时，股票的涨势就开始回落。尽管如此，盘后股价仍上涨了近 2%，意味着有所回升，但我想从上涨 3% 到几乎持平的变化是在这一评论发布后不久出现的。
And that's just, you know, people having concerns about what was asked by one of the analysts there is that how is that type of CapEx being covered? Because so far, we've basically seen free cash flow, you know, just operating cash flow covering Tesla's capital expenditures. And then obviously leaving some to have free cash flow grow that cash balance, even after capital expenditures. So the question there is like, all right, if you increase this to $20 billion and you're not increasing, you know, significant increase cash flow from the business yet, as some of that may still be to come as robots actually expands and things like that.
这就是说，人们在关注一位分析师所提的问题，即这种资本支出是如何被覆盖的。因为到目前为止，我们看到的基本是靠自由现金流，也就是经营现金流来支付特斯拉的资本支出。在进行资本支出后，仍然留出一些来让自由现金流增加现金余额。因此问题在于，如果将资本支出增加到200亿美元，而业务现金流还没有明显增加，那么这些资金将如何覆盖呢，特别是在未来机器人业务扩展等情况下可能会有所增长。
I think Tesla expects that to happen probably relatively quickly, especially based on Elon's comments about being in dozens of cities, quarter to 50% of the US being covered by the end of the year, which he's made comments like that before. So it's really hard to know exactly what that timeline might look like. But point being that as that stuff happens, hopefully those cash flows should allow for CapEx for this, you know, this type of CapEx, but Tesla doesn't want to just sit around and wait. As Elon also said, like there's so much change happening right now that it's almost imprudent to wait until that cash flow starts coming into be comfortable going in this direction with the higher CapEx.
我认为特斯拉可能预计这会比较快地发生，尤其是根据马斯克之前的评论，他提到到年底会覆盖美国的四分之一到一半的地区，并进入几十个城市。不过，这个时间表到底会如何，确实很难确定。但重点是，一旦这些事情发生，希望这些现金流能够支持这种类型的资本支出（CapEx）。然而，特斯拉并不想只是坐等。正如马斯克所说，现在变化非常快，若等到现金流入后再开始增加资本支出，似乎并不明智。
If that CapEx is something that you feel like you can do efficiently, that needs to be done now. There's no point in just sitting around to wait for that, especially when you already have your cash cash on your balance sheet to be able to cover that. They didn't say this. Tesla's, you know, more than a trillion dollar company. Tesla could very easily raise capital if they needed to. I don't think that's at all part of their plan, but that's the, you know, one of the things that exists as a lever, especially when you have that type of a market cap. So, you know, that could be something that's an option as well to cover those types of expenses beyond what operating cash flow would cover.
如果你觉得可以高效地进行这笔资本支出（CapEx），那就应该立即进行。坐等毫无意义，尤其是当你账户上已经有足够的现金来承担这项支出的时候。他们并没有这么说。以特斯拉为例，这家公司市值超过一万亿美元，如果需要的话，特斯拉很容易就能筹集到资金。我觉得这并不在他们的计划之内，但这确实是一种可行的策略，特别是当公司市值达到这种规模时。因此，这也可以是一个选择，用来支付那些超出运营现金流范围的费用。
So as I've said many times, you know, Tesla's always gotten a very good return on their capital expenditures, maybe not like every single project, but looking at it holistically that has always been the case. I would expect that to be, you know, continue to be the case. I think across Yolanda's businesses, that's pretty much always been the case. It's something he's just really, really been great at and has led to a lot of the success from a lot of these businesses is really like that specific thing.
正如我多次所说，特斯拉的资本支出通常都能获得很好的回报，虽然不是每个项目都如此，但整体来看情况一直不错。我预计这种情况会继续保持。我认为在Yolanda的各项业务中，情况基本也是如此。这个方面他做得非常出色，也正是这个能力促成了这些业务的大量成功。
So because of that track record, I think it's very easy to feel comfortable that, you know, if these dollars are going to be spent, they're going to be spent in a in a great way that's going to lead to really good return for shareholders in the future. So it's not anything that, you know, worries me or makes me want to sell my stock or anything like that. It's more something that I'm excited about, similar to like the R&D numbers that we talked about, you know, and I don't mind those increasing quarter over quarter for very similar reasons is that I believe in Tesla to get a good return on those expenses.
因此，基于过往业绩，我认为很容易产生一种安心的感觉，就是这些资金如果要被花费，它们会被用在能够为股东带来优秀回报的好地方。因此，我并不为此感到担忧，也没有想要抛售股票或类似的想法。这更像是让我感到兴奋的一件事，就像我们之前谈到的研发投入那样，我也不介意这些投入逐季增加，因为我相信特斯拉能在这些投入上获得良好的回报。
So I think that part was interesting. And then they talked to, you know, a fair amount about Robotaxi. I don't think we got anything, you know, major, major specifics on that. Obviously, talked a lot about Optimus with, you know, reiterating what we had seen in there in the earnings deck. Sounded like Yolanda said, maybe unveiling in a few months, earnings deck said unveiling in the first quarter. So it wouldn't be terribly surprising if that gets pushed to, you know, later in the year. Obviously, we'll just kind of wait and see on that. But at any rate, it is nice to see Elon make such positive comments about Optimus version 3, also echoed by some of the other members of the team there. And I think it's just something that we all can't wait to see. And until we do, it's a lot of speculation. But there's obviously ton to be excited about there. And it feels like Tesla finally feels like it's ready to scale.
我觉得那部分挺有趣的。然后，他们还谈了不少关于自动驾驶出租车（Robotaxi）的内容。不过，我认为我们没有获得特别具体的重要信息。当然，他们还谈了很多关于Optimus，并重申了在收益报告中提到的内容。听起来Yolanda说可能会在几个月后发布，而收益报告则提到在第一季度发布，所以如果推迟到今年晚些时候也不算太意外。显然，我们只能拭目以待。但无论如何，看到Elon和团队其他成员对Optimus版本3做出如此积极的评论，还是挺令人高兴的。我觉得这是我们都迫不及待想要看到的东西。在看到实际产品之前，大部分还是猜测，但显然有很多值得期待的地方。而且，感觉Tesla终于准备好扩大规模了。
And they're putting planes in place like we had talked about around the SNX to make that space available. Robotaxi fleet size, I was having a little bit of trouble hearing. I don't know if that was when the audio got quieter. That was on Tesla's end, by the way. I don't, I don't know, not sure what was going on there. Largely improved audio quality, but still some work to do. But at any rate, I think, I thought they had said it's well over 500. I think the question had said that it's around 200 vehicles, which was more close to my understanding. I guess I haven't looked as closely at the bay area because a lot of that is still supervised. So it's a little bit less meaningful to me. But interesting to see that comment there. It also sounded like a show basically said that over even just like the last couple of days, it seems like they're getting quite a bit more comfortable with on supervised Elon mentioned specifically, like they've done rides now without a chase car, which would be another significant milestone, another first for Tesla to have accomplished.
他们正在根据我们之前讨论的内容，在 SNX 周围安排飞机，以腾出空间。关于无人出租车车队的规模，我刚刚听得不是很清楚，可能是音频变小声的时候，应该是特斯拉那边的原因。我不太确定是怎么回事，虽然音质有所改善，但仍有提升的空间。不管怎样，我认为他们提到车队规模远超500辆。而提问时说大约是200辆，这更接近我的理解。我对湾区的情况了解不多，因为很多测试仍在有人监督的情况下进行，所以对我来说意义不大。不过，看到这条评论还是挺有意思的。而且节目中提到了，最近几天他们似乎在无人监督方面更加自信了。Elon 特别提到，他们现在已经能够进行没有随行车的试乘，这是特斯拉取得的又一个重要里程碑。
So hopefully over the next quarter, we really start to see that take off. I think Elon said, doubling every month is sort of what he expects in terms of the size of that fleet. If that's accurate, that doesn't take long to get to a point where it's like very eye opening of like, oh, this is, this is really starting to happen right now. Anything below like a thousand vehicles that's, you know, kind of right it off is just a test. But as you get into multiple thousands of vehicles that changes and sounds like that change could be coming quickly. So as usual, it would be another interesting quarter ahead as we see the progress there. As for FSD unsupervised, I mean, I understand why this keeps getting asked, but it's sort of a question that like we're going to know that answer to based on all of the other things that are happening with Robotaxi, right? Like that's going to be a subsequent thing to Robotaxi expansion.
希望在接下来的一个季度，我们能够真正看到这个计划起飞。我记得埃隆说过，他预计车队的规模每个月会翻一倍。如果这个预测准确，那么很快就能达到一个让人眼前一亮的规模，让人觉得“哦，这真的开始实现了。” 目前少于一千辆车的规模，我们可以把它当成一个测试。但是当数量达到数千辆时，情况就会有所不同，而这种变化似乎会迅速到来。因此，一如往常，接下来的一个季度会很有趣，我们将观察这些进展。至于完全自动驾驶模式的无人监管，我理解为什么这个问题不断被提问，但这个问题的答案可以从Robotaxi的其他进展中得知。这将是Robotaxi计划扩展后的后续发展。
They're not going to just like flip the switch on unsupervised and then like still be testing Robotaxi. It doesn't make any sense. So like that, that will trail that and probably trail it by a fair amount because it's just a different level of liability to let a consumer in their car go and do that whenever they want versus Tesla in their fleet doing it with their cars that they, you know, have very close monitoring over not that they don't for the other cars. But it's just I think pretty obviously going to trail the Robotaxi. So, you know, really the question, more importantly and more answerable is just what's happening with Robotaxi and then after that unsupervised will follow. So we'll see. I think, you know, Tesla wants to get that done as soon as they can.
他们不会简单地像按开关一样推动无人监督驾驶，然后还在测试无人驾驶出租车。这没有道理。所以，这个过程肯定会延迟，而且可能会有相当大的延迟，因为让普通消费者的车辆随时随地这样做和让特斯拉自己的车队进行这样的操作是有不同责任层次的。尽管对其他车辆也有严格监控，但显然这种情况会比无人驾驶出租车滞后得多。因此，真正重要且更容易回答的问题是：无人驾驶出租车的发展进展如何，之后无人监督驾驶会随后跟进。我们拭目以待。我想，特斯拉希望尽快完成这个目标。
That's a huge value unlock, especially now as they're thinking about FSD in the context of subscriptions. That's what's going to drive the subscriptions, right? You on as extremely aware that once you can take your attention away, that's where the true value starts to accrue. So, you know, Tesla's Tesla wants it as bad as any individual customer does. I'm sure. I think those were the big things. I mean, otherwise it seemed like a pretty straightforward call. I think they've basically reiterated a lot of things that we've talked about, like even earlier today we were talking about this exact point here of like we're transitioning from and probably marked perfectly by the end of the SNX product life cycle. We're transitioning from selling cars to selling transportation.
这是一个巨大的价值释放，特别是在他们考虑将FSD（全自动驾驶）纳入订阅模式的时候。这将推动订阅的发展，对吧？你非常清楚，一旦你可以将注意力转移，这就是价值真正开始积累的地方。所以，你知道，特斯拉渴望这一点的程度不亚于任何个人客户。我相信这是关键所在。总体来看，这次讨论似乎比较直接明了。他们基本上重申了我们之前谈论过的很多观点，比如我们今天较早时就讨论过这一点：我们正在从销售汽车转变为销售交通服务，这个转变可能以SNX产品生命周期结束为标志。
And even I think among like Tesla people, like I don't think people are quite like gotten there yet. Like in their minds, people still think like selling a car. Even with cybercam, like people are thinking about that is like, can I buy the cybercam? I don't know, maybe probably from like a business perspective though, it's just like I think from from Tesla's end, it's just like all right, we'll sell it or we won't sell it. It will just be determined on the market dynamics, like it has nothing to do with the design of the vehicle, whether or not we're going to sell it to customers or not. It's just like we're going to build this thing to make transportation as efficient as we possibly can autonomous transportation as efficient as we possibly can.
即使是在特斯拉内部，也有人还没完全理解这点。在他们心里，卖车还是像传统的概念。即便是对于赛博卡车，大家考虑的还是“我能买到赛博卡车吗？”从商业角度来看，我觉得对于特斯拉来说，就是“好吧，我们要么卖，要么不卖。这完全取决于市场动态，跟车辆设计无关。”我们制造这个东西只是为了尽可能提高交通效率，特别是自动驾驶交通的效率。
Like that's a completely different design direction. This is the thing that Elon has wanted to build for a long time. Like it's not it's that's what it's that's what it's for. It's not to try to like shoehorn in also a consumer vehicle. If it happens to also be an awesome consumer vehicle, that's great and Tesla can sell it and whatever. But the value again is from like having people be able to be transported at this extremely low cost in a really nice vehicle without having to pay attention. So you get your time back not sitting in my numbing traffic and not and then like all of that added safety stuff, which you know, not really like a bonus, but make it as safe as possible as cheap as possible.
这完全是一个不同的设计方向。这是埃隆一直想要打造的东西。它的目的不是勉强转变成一款消费者车辆。如果它恰好也是一款出色的消费者车辆，那很好，特斯拉可以卖它什么的。但它的价值在于能够让人们以极低的成本乘坐一辆非常舒适的车辆，而不用分心，这样你就可以不用在让人精疲力竭的交通中浪费时间。再加上所有的安全措施，虽然不算什么额外奖励，但尽量做到安全又便宜。
Like that's that's what Tesla is doing here. And when you think it's first principle thinking, right, like design that thing, all the other stuff falls into place because that thing is the best thing. So that's what they're trying to say here. Hopefully people understand that it should have been clear for a long time. But even again, among like the Tesla community, I feel like that's not like clicked fully yet. So hopefully that helps make that click. Plans, launch new models, yeah, sort of like the same type of thing there. It's like they're not even really thinking about like, oh, we're going to build a new car to sell to customers.
这就是特斯拉在做的事情。当你认为这是第一性原理思维时，设计出那个东西，其他一切都会有条不紊地发展，因为那个东西是最好的。这就是他们试图表达的意思。希望人们理解，早就应该很清楚了。不过即使在特斯拉社区中，我觉得这个理念还没有完全被领会。所以希望这能帮助大家理解。计划推出新车型，也是类似的思路，他们甚至不是在考虑“哦，我们要造一辆新车来卖给客户”。
It's just no like all right, what is the best possible system of transportation that we can develop and how are we going to develop that? Like those are the questions that Tesla is asking. Okay, let's see. The tariff app stuff. So I don't know. I feel like I'd kind of hand-waved at that a little bit more than I would now. Maybe last quarter, when I think they first started mentioning that as an idea. It's almost like kind of if someone had talked about like Tesla needing to make batteries back in, I don't know, 2015, when they're selling like, I don't know, 100,000 Model S's and X's.
这段英文大意是这样的：这并不是说我们应该去研发一个完美的交通运输系统以及如何去实现它。这些是特斯拉正在问的问题。好吧，让我们来看这个"关税应用程序"的事情。我不太确定，我觉得自己可能对这个问题最初提到的时候有些敷衍，可能是在上个季度。当时这就像，如果有人在2015年谈论特斯拉需要制造电池一样，那时候他们可能才卖出了10万台Model S和Model X。
Like at that time, it would have been like, oh, that's kind of crazy. That Tesla would like, no, you don't need to make your own batteries. But probably something that Tesla was thinking about at the time and clearly fast forward a couple of years certainly was thinking about at that point. So it kind of reminds me of that. And if Tesla does achieve what they hope to achieve and basically these autonomous agents, a real world autonomous agents, whether it's a vehicle or an optimist, whatever other product, if Tesla can actually deliver what they want to deliver, then they're just seeing like, all right, well, this is the bottleneck that we run into.
在那个时候，人们可能会觉得，哦，这有点疯狂。特斯拉会说，不，你不需要自己制造电池。但可能当时特斯拉就在考虑这件事，并且几年后显然开始认真思考。所以这让我想起了那段时间。如果特斯拉能够实现他们的目标，推出真实世界的自主代理，无论是车辆还是像"Optimus"这样的其他产品，那么他们会意识到，这就是他们遇到的瓶颈。
How are we going to solve that? I guess we have to solve it because no one else is going to do it. And no one else is going to like put the capital behind it that isn't Tesla because then those people are basically just like betting on Tesla. And that would be somewhat irresponsible for another company to do. They could do it. It's just generally not like how things work, especially when you're talking about like that type of scale, that type of cap X, like it's just a massive, massive bet for another company to have to make versus Tesla can make it because it's, you know, it's us like we have control.
我们该如何解决这个问题呢？我想我们必须解决它，因为没有其他人会去做。而且除了特斯拉之外，也没有其他人会投入资金，因为其他公司这样做基本上就是在押注特斯拉。对于其他公司来说，这样做有些不负责任。虽然他们可以这么做，但通常情况不是这样的，特别是当涉及到这种规模和资本支出时，这对其他公司来说是一个巨大的赌注，而特斯拉可以做到，因为是我们有控制权。
We know what we want and how to get there and where this is all going versus just like someone else having to tell you that and you just have to believe them. So it's a very different type of a situation that I can understand how it sort of results in in that outcome. The counterpoints would be like, all right, just grow slower. It's fine. They'll get you your chips. Back on the other side of the coin, then it's like, all right, well, there's still even in that type of a scenario solar slower growth, you're still having tons of geopolitical risk that can complicate that and not even complicated, but sort of existential.
我们知道自己想要什么、如何实现目标以及未来的走向，而不是像某些人一样，需要别人告诉你这些事情，然后你只能信任他们。所以，这是一种非常不同的情况，我能理解为什么这会导致这样的结果。反面观点可能是，好吧，就慢慢发展，没关系，他们会给你你需要的芯片。然而，即使在那种慢速发展的情况下，你仍然会面临大量的地缘政治风险，这不仅会让事情变得复杂，甚至可能带来生存上的威胁。
So if that existential risks exists as well and we can also hedge that while unlocking more growth, like those are the arguments in favor. And everyone is aware that there are arguments against as well and they acknowledge those things too. But it's just something that they need to, you know, make a calculation on and decide what path is best. And they're just mentioning like, Hey, this is something that is in consideration at this moment, not that a decision has been made, but something that they're evaluating.
所以，如果存在这种生存风险，同时我们也能够在解锁更多增长的同时对此进行对冲，这就是支持这一观点的理由。而且，所有人都知道也有反对的观点，他们也承认这些情况。只是他们需要进行评估，决定哪条路径是最好的。目前只是在考虑这个问题，并不是已经做出了决定，而是正在进行评估。
Yeah, I think the rest sounds like some of the ASP stuff that we were talking about, some of the margin strength this quarter was a result of mix. So suggest that margins outside of the United States are quite a bit stronger, which kind of makes sense in terms of production costs. And I think we did see, I can pull it up here, but we did see cost decline, $1,600 from an average unit cost basis in the quarter. Quarter of a quarter. So that's probably largely mixed driven too.
是的，我认为其余的内容听起来像是我们之前谈论的一些ASP的东西。这一季度利润率的强劲表现部分是由于产品组合的原因。所以可以说，美国以外的利润率要强得多，这在生产成本方面是合理的。我想我们确实看到了，我可以在这里查一下，平均单元成本这一季度下降了1600美元，与上一季度相比。这可能也主要是由产品组合驱动的。
If you have more of your vehicles being delivered in Asia Pacific, more of that production is going to come from Giga Shanghai, Giga Shanghai has a lower cost per vehicle produced. But ASP, obviously a little bit lower too, but maybe not as low as the savings in cost. So that's probably something that's boosting up margins. It's almost something that you would hope to like kind of fall back if US demand strengthens again as we get through sort of like the hangover effect of that tax credit expiration and the pull forative demand from that.
如果你在亚太地区有更多车辆交付，更多的生产将来自上海超级工厂，那里每辆车的生产成本较低。但平均售价（ASP）显然也稍微低一些，但可能没有成本节省得那么多。所以，这可能是提升利润率的因素之一。这几乎是一种你希望能够依赖的策略，特别是在美国需求再次强劲时，因为我们需要度过税收优惠期满后的影响以及由此产生的额外需求。
So in terms of, you know, is that sustainable? I think it really depends on the mix. I think probably like the lower number of vehicle deliveries you have, the more sustainable that is and the higher number of vehicles delivered, the less so because you have some margin contraction as you have, you know, higher US sales. So I think that all kind of makes sense and is probably somewhat intuitive. Like when you grow your vehicle deliveries, you know, you're probably selling them at lower costs and into people that, you know, meet that lower cost more and that compresses your margin.
在谈到是否可持续这个问题时，我认为这主要取决于组合。大概来说，车辆交付的数量越少，越可持续；而交付的数量越多，就越不容易持续下去，因为随着美国销售数量的增加，利润率会缩小。我觉得这些都不难理解。当你增加车辆交付量时，通常是以更低的价格出售给更容易接受低价格的人，这样就会压缩利润空间。
You have the counter weight of that of growing your economies of scale. So it's all something that Tesla has to balance and well balance, but it'll be interesting to see how that sort of unfolds throughout 2026. Just looking through the notes here. The solar stuff is interesting. I think probably learn a lot more about that throughout the course of this year. But yeah, let me know if there's anything else in particular you guys want me to discuss or if you have questions or anything like that.
你们需要在规模经济增长方面进行权衡。这是特斯拉必须平衡且需要很好地平衡的一件事。不过，观察这一切到2026年的发展将会很有趣。浏览了一下笔记，发现太阳能这部分内容很有趣。我认为今年内可能会有更多的了解。不过，如果你们有任何特别想讨论的事情，或有任何问题，请随时告诉我。
But otherwise, I think, you know, pretty successful earnings report for Tesla. Obviously that gross margin being well ahead of expectations, automotive revenue being ahead of expectations. The net income stuff we talked about sounds like there's probably some stock based compensation that wasn't fully appreciated in the estimates from starting to recognize some of you on CEO performance plan this quarter. So that drove down the gap earnings per share. But otherwise non-gap earnings per share beat.
但总体来说，我认为特斯拉的财报还是相当成功的。显然，毛利率远超预期，汽车收入也高于预期。关于净收入的部分，我们之前讨论过，可能涉及一些股票薪酬，这些在估计中没有充分体现出来，因为本季度开始确认了一些CEO绩效计划。因此，这拉低了会计准则下的每股收益。但在非会计准则下，每股收益还是超出了预期。
I need to go back and look at the digital currency impact. I think I was mixing up the directionality there. So I just need to get my head straight on that. Again, the accounting has changed since I stopped doing Tesla daily. So not something I have as great of insight on anymore. So I'll have to go back and take a look at that. But I think he said that there was a digital currency headwind, which would increase that spread non-gap to gap. So I just need to understand that.
我需要回去看看数字货币的影响。我想我可能在理解方向上有些混淆。所以我需要重新理清自己的思路。另外，自从我不再每天关注特斯拉以来，相关的会计规则已经发生了变化，因此我现在对这方面的了解不如以前了。我要回去重新看看这些情况。不过，我想他说过存在一个数字货币的阻力，这会使非公认会计准则和公认会计准则之间的差距扩大。我要理解这个方面。
But that had been my assumption kind of going into it. So I think that hopefully that makes sense. Which again means the numbers are stronger than expected on that non-gap basis, which follows that the operating income and the gross profit both being higher than expected off of stronger revenue and stronger margins. So financially, I think very exciting. I think pretty cool to see like the disclosure of FSD subscriptions and things like that.
这原本是我一开始的想法。所以我希望这能讲得通。这也意味着在非公认会计准则的基础上，数字比预期要强，这也说明由于收入和利润率的增强，营业收入和毛利润都高于预期。因此，从财务角度来看，我认为这是非常令人兴奋的。我觉得，看到全自驾订阅服务等信息的披露真的很不错。
I do want to go back and just look somebody pointed out that it looked like there was actually the FSD subscriptions both on a quarterly breakout basis, but then also on an annual broken out basis. So I just want to take a super quick look at that. Yeah, so that's really nice. So we get to see actual annual historical, you know, take rates and things like that. And just kind of looking at it now, I don't have a great way to pull this up on the screen at the moment.
我确实想回过头去看看，有人指出，这其中似乎包括了季度和年度的FSD（完全自动驾驶）订阅数据。所以我想快速看一下。这样挺好的，我们可以看到实际的年度历史数据，比如用户接受率等。虽然我现在没有很好的方法把它在屏幕上展示出来。
But in 2021, there was about looks like 400,000 active FSD subscriptions, which at that point obviously there were no subscribing options. It would have just been outright purchases. And that would have been a little bit less than 20% of the fleet. It looks like yeah, maybe like a single somewhere in the teens range. Let's get brought just calculate it instead of just poorly guessing. So about see as I look over my microphone here.
在2021年，大约有40万个活跃的FSD（全自动驾驶）订阅用户。当时显然没有订阅选项，这些应该都是直接购买的。这大约占整个车队的不到20%，可能在十几的百分比范围内。与其不准确地猜测，我们应该计算一下。让我看看我的麦克风并算一下。
Yeah, so about 17% roughly just, you know, not super precise with the numbers that we're given, but about 17%. And that, obviously, that's now declined as we go up to 2025. So the active number of subscriptions has almost tripled since then, but the actual vehicle deliveries has maybe a little bit less than 4x, which means that that penetration is falling, which is a contradictory to something that I mentioned a little bit on our shareholder letter discussion today. If you look in more recent quarters, it's increasing over the longer time horizon, it's decreasing. The decrease I suspect would be because of the increased deliveries internationally as obviously Giga Shanghai came up and started being such a huge portion of production and deliveries during that sort of four year window that we're talking about here. So that really affects the numbers, but that stabilizes more recently.
好的，大约是17%，这个数字不是特别精确，但大概是17%。显然，到2025年这个比例已经下降。自那时以来，活跃订阅数量几乎增长了三倍，但实际车辆交付量可能不到四倍，这意味着渗透率在下降，这与我们今天在股东信讨论中提到的一些内容相矛盾。如果查看最近的季度数据，渗透率在短期内有所增加，但在更长的时间跨度上是减少的。我猜测减少的原因可能是国际交付量的增加，因为上海超级工厂的崛起在这四年期间对产量和交付量贡献巨大。这确实影响了数据，但最近这种情况有所稳定。
And then more recently, you're seeing an increase in a take rate, which is supporting what we're seeing, I think, with the product that FSD is becoming more capable, just a better product that more people are going to want to subscribe to. And you also have new markets that are hopefully starting to take that on. Obviously, South Korea mentioned as one in the shareholder letter today. Let's see. Just seeing if there's any questions here. Mojira, thanks for the super chat. Appreciate that. Question says, do you think it's odd how quiet they've been on V14.3 at the last piece of the puzzle? Yeah, that would have been a good question, specific like to the reasoning capabilities. I don't know if it was a shoker or Elon that had commented on this on X, just basically saying that there's already some reasoning that's been implemented in the current version.
最近，使用率的增加也在支持我们所观察到的情况。我认为这与FSD产品的能力提升有关，它变得更好，更吸引更多人订阅。同时，也有新的市场希望开始采用这一产品。显然，在今天的股东信中提到了韩国。让我们看看是否有其他问题。Mojira，谢谢你的超级聊天，非常感谢。有人提问：“你觉得他们在V14.3上保持沉默是否奇怪？这是最后一块拼图。”是的，这会是一个不错的问题，特别是关于推理能力的。我不确定是在X平台上是Shoker还是Elon就此事发表了评论，他们基本上表示当前版本已经实现了一些推理能力。
So FSD 14.2.2.4, I think, whatever the most recent one is, some of that reasoning capability exists. I think they talked some of that being around like the parking decisions where you have the option, of course, to select what type of parking situation you expect to be in. So I think you gave that as an example. And there would just be more of that type of stuff that would be happening. I don't know if it would be all like user input stuff. I'm sure that there would be other reasoning that the vehicles kind of doing without input to which is what I suspect would be the bigger piece of it. And probably remaining piece of it.
在FSD 14.2.2.4版本中，我认为这种推理能力已经存在了一部分。举个例子，他们谈到了一些与停车决策相关的功能，你当然可以选择你期望的停车类型。我想你提到了这个例子。未来会有更多类似这样的功能出现。我不确定这是否完全依赖用户输入，我相信车辆也会进行一些不需要输入的独立判断，这可能是推理能力中更重要的部分，也是会保留下来的部分。
So whether or not I think it's odd how quiet they've been on that, I don't personally think it's odd necessarily. Some of it is just randomness of what questions happen to be asked and what happens to be answered and what happens to be being worked on that day and all that sort of stuff. So I don't necessarily think it's odd. Obviously, though, it's something I'm still excited for. And I think as Elon said, probably a major update every three-ish months, which is kind of the cadence that we've seen now for a long time and what I would expect. So once a quarter, I think we'll see something that's a pretty decent step up. And maybe they're not all the same every single quarter. Like obviously, V12 to V13 huge, V13 to V14 huge. And that's not going to be something that's happening every quarter. But still seeing that progress incrementally in between those major version updates.
所以无论我是否觉得他们在这方面保持沉默有些奇怪，我个人并不觉得那一定很奇怪。有时候这只是随机性的表现，比如有什么问题被提问、什么问题被回答、当天在忙些什么事情等等。所以我不一定觉得这很奇怪。不过，这显然是令我兴奋的事情。我认为正如埃隆所说，大约每三个月会有一次重要更新，这也是我们长期以来看到的一种节奏，我对此有所期待。所以我认为每季度我们都能看到一次相当不错的进展。当然，并不是每个季度的变化都是一样显著的。例如，从V12到V13是巨大的提升，从V13到V14也是如此，但这样的飞跃不可能每个季度都会发生。不过，我们仍会在这些主要版本更新之间看到持续的小幅进展。
Let's see. What are your thoughts? Whether Tesla should slash would consider licensing FSD. So this is something that Tesla has talked a lot about. I think they're super open to it. The problem is that no one else, no other company that's approached them basically is taking it seriously enough for it to matter to Tesla or to be interesting or worth the resources for Tesla. Because it needs to be something that this company is doing fully. You can't just bolt this on first of all. And then you also have to be doing it fully at scale. So you need to be going to do it on a product line that's millions, going to be millions of vehicles, not just this random your newest EV that you're going to produce 20,000 of and then give up on. That's Tesla is absolutely no interest in that. And they shouldn't because it's not a good use of their time.
让我们看看。你怎么看待这个问题？Tesla是否应该考虑授权其全自动驾驶（FSD）技术？这是Tesla经常谈论的话题。我认为他们对此持非常开放的态度。问题在于，目前还没有其他公司对此抱有足够的重视，从而让Tesla觉得有意义或值得投入资源。因为这种合作需要公司全面投入，并不是简单地把技术整合进去这么简单。你还需要大规模全面开展这个项目。这意味着你需要将其应用在一个计划生产数百万辆的产品线上，而不是只应用在一个你准备生产2万辆的新款电动车上，然后就放弃了。Tesla对这种合作没有兴趣，他们也不应该有兴趣，因为这对他们来说并不是一个明智的时间和资源的利用。
So I think Tesla would be open to it. And I just think that it's like a chicken and a thing of like it's probably can't happen because no one else is going to make that type of commitment. And it's like an exemplary of why these automakers are going to be in the position that they're going to be in when we switch to this transportation as a service type of ecosystem and economy. Which is I don't know. I feel like people are just getting complacent and like, oh, it hasn't happened. Like we're fine. But it's still happening and it's going to happen. So it's just going to make those problems worse when when they come for those manufacturers. That's my opinion. But I mean, we'll see.
我觉得特斯拉可能会对此持开放态度。不过，我觉得这就像一个“鸡和蛋”的问题，可能不会发生，因为没有其他公司会做出那种承诺。这也说明了为什么这些汽车制造商在我们转向“作为服务的交通”这种生态系统和经济模式时，会处于他们现在这样的地位。我不知道，我觉得人们变得有些自满，觉得“哦，这还没有发生，我们没事。”但事实上，这仍在发生，并且将会发生。当这些问题最终降临到这些制造商身上时，会使问题更加严重。这是我的看法。不过，我们拭目以待。
All right. Just keep looking through here. Some questions on like autopilot ending. I've kind of always had FSD. So I don't have a personal like great. I don't know. Understanding of what the autopilot feature set exactly was and how that's changed over the years and how it compares to how it is now. So I can't really comment too much on that. I don't think it's surprising to see it like deprecated in favor of hopefully being replaced at some point with something else that kind of manages those capabilities. I think from what I've seen online, it seems like it's something that is maybe a little bit disappointing for people. I've seen people say that like this is crazy because now Tesla is not competitive with what these you know, other things. My point of view is like all that stuff could could be valid and are probably reasonable criticisms of Tesla.
好的。你可以在这里继续查找。有些关于自动驾驶功能被取消的问题。我一直使用全自动驾驶（FSD），所以我个人对自动驾驶的具体功能变化不是特别了解，也不知道这些年来它是如何演变的，以及与现在的情况相比有什么不同。所以我对此无法发表评论。我认为看到它被弃用而可能由其他可以管理这些功能的东西取代，并不令人意外。从网上的情况来看，这似乎让一些人有些失望。我看到有人说这很疯狂，因为这样一来，特斯拉就无法与其他产品竞争。我的观点是，这些看法可能是有道理的，并且可能是对特斯拉的合理批评。
I don't want it to sound flippant that like they don't care about that because those are real customers and they should definitely care about that. And again, I'm not clear on like if if it's you can head on a pilot and it goes away or if it's not for new vehicles anymore, I need to probably brush up on that. But I think ultimately it's like most of that stuff fits into you at least from like an investment perspective or a business perspective fits into like the noise category of this isn't something that's super material for the company or for the business. Obviously, if you have that car and it's affecting you in that way, like yes, that is something that is significant for you. So that's just from the business perspective.
我不想让它听起来轻率，好像他们不在乎，因为那些是真正的客户，他们绝对应该关心这个问题。不过，我还不是很清楚这是不是可以通过试点项目解决的问题，还是不再适用于新车型的问题，我需要再了解一下。但我认为，从投资或商业的角度来看，这些事情大多属于非实质性的问题，并不对公司或业务有重大影响。当然，如果你拥有那辆车，而且这种情况影响到了你，那么对你来说这确实是重要的。不过，这只是从商业角度来说的。
And obviously supporting those customers is important things like that. Beyond that though, I don't really have like a ton of insights. I guess the hope that I would have is that that is replaced with something that is built off of the FSD stack that is a better part of the product. I also don't know though if Tesla wants to spend the time and the resources on developing something like that because obviously it shouldn't be the priority when FSD unsupervised and robots actually are the priority and should be. So it's you know, kind of a tough tough one to answer. You know, in that in that situation. All right, I think we got through a lot of the questions there. Just trying to think if there's kind of anything else that we missed today.
显然，支持这些客户是很重要的事情。在此之外，我对其他方面其实没有太多的见解。我希望的是，这能被基于FSD（全自动驾驶）系统开发的产品所取代，这样产品会更好。不过，我也不确定特斯拉是否愿意投入时间和资源去开发这样的东西，因为显然，当FSD的无人监管驾驶和机器人是优先事项时，这不应该是优先项。所以在这种情况下，确实有点难以回答。好的，我觉得我们已经讨论了很多问题，只是在想今天是否还遗漏了其他内容。
I don't know. I think I kind of expected to come into this with it being a really boring report and it didn't end up being boring. I think there were a lot of like new pieces of information that we got, particularly like the FSD subscriptions, the $20 billion in CapEx. But at a higher level, I think it sort of matched my expectations of being a little bit boring in that we do know the direction of where the company is going. We know it's important and those things are being developed very publicly with the exception of Optimus being, you know, we'll see what that holds in the next few months. As Elon said in terms of the unveiling, that's super important.
我不知道。我本来以为这会是一份非常无聊的报告，但结果并不无聊。我觉得我们获得了很多新信息，特别是FSD订阅服务和200亿美元的资本支出。不过，从更高的层面来看，这份报告也有点符合我对无聊的预期，因为我们知道公司发展的方向。我们知道这些进展很重要，而且大部分都是公开进行的，除了Optimus项目，我们将在接下来的几个月里看看它的发展。正如Elon所说的，Optimus的揭幕非常重要。
But otherwise, like Robotexy, there's tons of people following that. Like, we knew that wasn't some like big announcement today that like, hey, we took unsupervised rides. We knew that the moment that it happened from updates on X. So I think there was probably a past where this would have been something like monumentus of like hearing that update on an earnings call. But it just isn't because we already had that information because that's just developing things so publicly. And I think that happens in a lot of parts of their business. A lot of the other stuff is very long lead time. That's not going to change quarter to quarter.
翻译成中文，尽量易读：不过，就像Robotexy一样，很多人在关注这个。就像，我们早就知道今天不会有一些重大公告，比如说“嘿，我们进行了无人监督的乘车”。我们从X平台上的更新中就知道了那一刻。所以我想，以前这可能是一个大事件，比如在财报电话会议中听到这样的更新。但现在却不是，因为我们已经知道了这些信息，因为他们的很多东西都是如此公开地发展。我想这种情况在他们业务的很多其他部分也会发生。很多其他的事情需要很长的推进时间，并不会每个季度都改变。
And then sort of the rest of it just fits into this category of supporting the future growth of the business through the current operations, which are important, but are not where things are going to end up. So that's sort of what I expected. I think that's sort of how it's been with a couple of exceptions there, which I think are, I don't know, mostly, mostly positive, I would say. So at the end of the day, I think it's an earnings report that I'm happy with and nice to see some of the financial strength, a little bit better than expected by analysts and kind of onto the next quarter, onto another three months of development for FSD for Optimus.
然后，其余的部分就归入了通过当前运营支持未来业务增长的这一类别，这很重要，但不是最终的目标所在。这就是我所预期的。我认为总体上就是这样的，虽然有一些例外情况，但我觉得这些基本上都是积极的。所以，总的来说，我对这个财报感到满意，很高兴看到一些比分析师预期略好的财务表现。接下来就是进入下个季度，以及对Optimus的FSD进行三个月的进一步开发。
Hopefully we see Gen 3 before the next earnings call. So a lot to look forward to on those fronts. All right. So yeah, with that, I think it's a good place to wrap it up. But again, I appreciate you guys joining me for this once a quarter. It's always a blast to be here and to talk about Tesla. And I'm grateful to have the opportunity to do that. And I'll look forward to doing the same next quarter. Thank you.
希望我们能在下次财报电话会议之前看到第三代产品。因此，在这些方面有很多值得期待的事情。好的。那么，是的，我觉得可以在这里结束了。不过，我再次感谢大家每季度都能和我一同参与这次活动。每次参加并讨论特斯拉都让我感到非常愉快。我很感激有这个机会这样做，并期待下个季度能再次与大家交流。谢谢。