Markets Weekly January 24, 2026

Hello, my friends. Today is January 24th, and this is markets weekly. So this past week was a whirlwind in markets, so we have a lot to talk about. However, a lot of the things that happened also did resolve by the end of the week. So today let's talk about two things. First off, let's talk about the ongoing super rally in gold and silver. Silver breaching $100 gold just shy of $5,000. And as we discussed that, we also have to weave in what happened in Davos because I think the two are related. Now the second thing, of course, is what happened in Japan. Last week, earlier on the week, we had a lot of volatility in the Japanese bond market. We had a B.O.J meeting. And most interestingly, on Friday, reports suggest that the Fed verbally intervened into the FX markets and that strengthened the yen. That is to say, put downward pressure on USDJPY.

你好，我的朋友们。今天是1月24日，欢迎收看我们的“每周市场”节目。过去这一周市场经历了一场风暴，所以我们有很多内容要讨论。然而，很多事情在周末之前也得到了解决。今天我们主要谈两个话题。首先，我们来聊聊持续的黄金和白银超级行情。白银突破了100美元，黄金接近5000美元。此外，我们还需讨论达沃斯论坛上发生的事情，因为我认为这两者是相关的。 第二个话题是日本发生的事情。上周，日本债券市场出现了很大的波动，我们还迎来了日本央行的会议。最有趣的是，上周五有报道指出，美联储对外汇市场进行了口头干预，这使得日元走强。也就是说，这对美元兑日元汇率产生了下行压力。

All right, starting with the precious metals. Now if you look at a chart of silver, it looks like it's gone absolutely parabolic. Now as you guys know, silver is basically the original meme coin before there were meme stocks, before there was crypto, before there was NFTs, there was silver. And retail investors really, really liked buying silver. Over its history, silver often periodically goes into these parabolic surges and then implodes. So it looks like we're in another parabolic surge. So when these happen, you have no idea how high it can go. Whispers of 150, whispers of 300. And honestly, not too long ago, the whispers were for 100. Gold is also, of course, doing very well as well. But then that seems to be a much steadier trend.

好的，我们从贵金属开始说起。现在如果你看一看白银的走势图，会发现它完全呈现出一种抛物线般的上涨趋势。大家知道，在有“迷因股票”、加密货币和NFT之前，白银其实是最早的“迷因硬币”。散户投资者非常喜欢购买白银。在历史上，白银经常会周期性地出现这种快速爆发然后又崩盘的情况，所以现在似乎又进入了另一个快速上涨的阶段。当这种情况发生时，你根本不知道它会涨到多高。有人说可能涨到150，有人说可能到300。实际上，不久前还有人预计会涨到100。黄金当然也表现得很好，不过它的走势似乎更加稳定。

Now one of the big drivers of the precious metals rally has to do with geopolitics. Last weekend, we had the prospect of an EU-US trade war. The president had told the European Union that he needed Greenland and if he couldn't get it, he would put tariffs on them. European leaders stood up for themselves and also suggested that they would fight back. Now with this background, we kind of had flashbacks from the Liberation Day trade war last year. Remember, last April was a very volatile time in markets. What happened then, though, was that there was a big sell-off in US assets. So the dollar sold off, equity sold off, and even Treasury sold off, and very unusual combination. And retrospect, when we look at the official data, it becomes clear that there was a big foreign exodus from US assets in April. But the foreigners came right back months later and actually, last year, according to official data that we have so far, was a pretty big year for inflows into US equities.

现在，贵金属价格上涨的一个大推动因素与地缘政治有关。上周末，我们面临欧盟和美国之间贸易战的可能性。当时的总统表示，如果不能从欧洲联盟手中获取格陵兰岛，他将对欧盟征收关税。欧洲领导人挺身而出，表示会进行反击。这种背景让人想起去年解放日贸易战的情形。还记得去年四月，市场波动剧烈吗？当时，美国资产出现了大规模抛售，美元大跌，股市大跌，甚至国债也出现下跌，这种组合非常不寻常。回过头来看，根据官方数据，当时四月份，外国资本大规模撤离美国资产。但几个月后，这些外国资本又回来了。事实上，去年是美国股市流入资金相当大的一年。

So the sell-america trade last year was fleeting. But it did come back this past week as prospects of the trade were working up. There was very much a sell-america trade. And so there was a lot of uncertainty as to how this would resolve. Now the president went to Davos met with all the European leaders. On the stage, he gave a speech. He basically reiterated the absolute need for the US to have Greenland. He suggested that the US has always been there for NATO. It doesn't seem like it's NATO may not always be there for the US after all. It doesn't have much military. So maybe these guys should be nice and do a solid and give them Greenland or something like that.

所以，去年的抛售美国交易是短暂的。但在过去的一周，这种交易的前景再次升温。确实存在一个抛售美国的交易，大家对结果充满不确定性。现在，总统去了达沃斯并会见了所有的欧洲领袖。在演讲中，他基本上重申了美国绝对需要格陵兰。他表示美国一直都支持北约，但似乎北约并不一定总是支持美国，因为北约没有多少军事实力。所以他暗示，也许这些国家应该友好一些，做个顺水人情，把格陵兰给美国，或者类似的事情。

So what did calm the market a lot, though, was the president said that he would not use military force to take Greenland. And for some reason, there was rumors or fear of that could happen. And when the president affirmed that, that seemed to calm the markets down a lot. Later on, there were whispers that there was a framework of a deal. It seemed like everyone climbed down and they would work something out, details to be announced. Now this really reversed the sell-america trade pretty quickly. So it was really, again, just a fleeting moment. During that moment, though, you did have European pension funds, one in Denmark in particular, I believe, go out and tell everyone that they sold all their US treasuries. They held about 100 million, so basically zero.

所以真正让市场镇定下来的，是总统表示不会动用武力占领格陵兰。而此前不知为何流传着这种担忧或谣言。当总统做出这一声明时，市场似乎安定了许多。随后，有消息称他们之间达成了某种协议框架，似乎各方都愿意退一步，共同解决问题，具体细节尚未公布。这一消息迅速扭转了抛售美国资产的情绪。不过，这也只是短暂的时刻。在这一时刻，有欧洲的养老金基金，特别是丹麦的一家基金，告知大家他们卖出了所有的美国国债。他们持有约1亿美元的国债，现在已经完全清空。

But they were talking heads that were suggesting that maybe the European Union could put pressure on the US by selling US assets after all. We all know that the president cares very much about the stock market. Looking at the data, it's clear that the Europeans do hold a lot of US assets, among the largest category, is US stocks. Not for the goodness, not of the goodness of their heart or for the benefit of the president, of course, but because US stocks have been a pretty good investment, especially if you want exposure to AI, which the European Union doesn't have very much of. But so far, the sell-america trade happened briefly and well, again. But it's something that seems to be lurking in the background. There is increasingly unease with how the world is changing. From the European leaders, I think, a president legarred of the ECB, memorably told everyone that she would do a SWAT analysis, strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats, like a good technocrat. This is a wake-up call, a bigger one than we ever had.

他们是一些评论员，他们在暗示欧洲联盟可能会通过抛售美国资产来对美国施压。我们都知道总统非常关心股市。根据数据显示，欧洲人确实持有大量美国资产，其中最大的类别是美国股票。当然，不是因为他们对总统有好感或居心良善，而是因为美国的股票投资回报相当不错，特别是如果你想接触到欧洲联盟缺乏的人工智能领域。不过，到目前为止，类似“抛售美国”这样的举措只是短暂发生过。然而，这个潜在风险似乎一直存在于背景之中。随着世界的变化，欧洲领导人越来越感到不安。就像欧洲央行行长拉加德曾经意味深长地说过，她会像一位优秀的技术官僚那样进行SWOT分析，即分析优势、劣势、机会和威胁。这是一个前所未有的重要警示。

And I think that Europe is going to look at its strength, look at its weaknesses, do a big SWAT analysis and decide what do we need to do to be strong by ourselves. But of course, technocrats have been doing a terrible job over there for a long time. So it just kind of shows to me, at least, that a lot of people there just don't fully grasp that the world is changing, but they are beginning to. Now one star that stood out throughout all this turmoil was precious metals. Now even last April, when we had the sell-america trade, everything did poorly, but gold did well. It seemed like there's growing awareness in the markets that when you have risk that emanates from the United States, gold is a good hedge. And there's an interesting work from the BIS. Just last month, suggesting that we may be in a bubble in gold because a lot of the inflows were driven by retail investors, which makes sense to me since gold really is more of a retail investment.

我认为欧洲将会审视自身的优势和劣势，进行一次全面的SWOT分析，然后决定我们需要采取哪些措施来独立强大。当然，技术官僚们在那里长期以来表现得很糟糕。所以至少对我来说，这表明很多人并没有完全意识到世界正在变化，不过他们开始有了一些认识。在这段动荡时期中，唯一表现突出的就是贵金属。即便在去年四月份，当美国市场遭遇抛售时，各方面表现都不好，但黄金表现却很好。市场似乎越来越意识到，如果风险来自美国，黄金是一个不错的对冲工具。国际清算银行上个月的一项有趣研究表明，可能存在黄金泡沫，因为大量资金流入是由散户投资者推动的，这对我来说是合理的，因为黄金更像是一种散户投资。

If you are a professional investor, you go to an economist school and they read Ben Graham or something like that and they want cash flow. But I think there's more awareness now that you can have gold as a portfolio diversifier. And if that's the case, a lot of the large investment advantages, big accounts, are going to be under-invested. And so that suggests that there could be further upside in gold. I mean, silver, I think, is something separate. But I think this geopolitical issue and this awareness of greater diversification benefits of gold is a good tailwind. Now at Davos, we also had a very memorable speech by Prime Minister Mark Karni of Canada. It was actually a very well-received speech. And I thought it was very insightful. Basically, Karni is laying out that the world has changed.

如果你是专业投资者，你会去经济学学校学习，他们会读本·格雷厄姆或类似的书，他们关注现金流。但我认为现在越来越多人意识到，可以把黄金作为投资组合的多样化工具。如果是这样的话，许多大型投资账户可能在黄金方面的投资不足。这表明黄金可能还有进一步上涨的空间。至于白银，我认为是另一个独立的话题。但我认为当前的地缘政治问题和对黄金多样化益处的认识，是一个良好的助推因素。在达沃斯论坛上，加拿大总理马克·卡尼也发表了一次令人难忘的讲话，受到了广泛好评。我的看法是，卡尼基本上在阐述世界已经发生了变化。

That we middle powers, we have to unite. If we're not at the table, we're on the menu, as he memorably said. It was very much not so suddenly hinting that the US is behaving in kind of a hegemonic aggressive way in that everyone else, if we don't stand up together, we're going to be taking advantage of, which is very, I thought, a very clear analysis of what's happening in the political situation. However though, it elicits very poor reactions from the president who called him out. And also today, he is announcing that he's going to put tariffs on Canada if they do a trade deal with China. Now, just as Mark Karni is talking about having a multipolar world, being able to hedge relationships with other people, he also is acting on it by going to China last week. It's including a deal with China, where Canada would sell canola oil to China.

我们这些中等国家必须团结起来。如果我们不在谈判桌上，我们就会成为盘中餐，正如他形象地说的那样。这显然是在暗示美国表现得有些霸权和侵略性，如果我们不团结起来，就可能被利用。我认为这是对当前政治形势的一个非常清晰的分析。然而，总统对此反应非常激烈，并批评了他。而且，就在今天，总统宣布如果加拿大与中国达成贸易协议，他将对加拿大征收关税。正当马克·卡尼在谈论建设一个多极化世界并与其他国家建立关系时，他也付诸行动，上周前往中国。这其中包括与中国达成一项协议，加拿大将向中国出售菜籽油。

And in return, reduced tariffs they have on Chinese EVs. Currently, it's at 100%. Basically, no Chinese EVs into Canada. That's changing now. There is a quota on this. And there is some domestic politics there on Tariyo, where the car industry in Canada is based, is upset about this. But it does show that Mark Karni really is diversifying his relationships, maybe building more better relationships, not just with like Europe, but with China as well. At the moment, Canada does do the bulk of its trade with the US. So it's very reasonable and sound to diversify those relationships. But that did make the president unhappy. His speech was very obviously targeted in a double fine tone towards the president. And of course, we do have upcoming NAFTA renegotiations.

作为回报，他们降低了对中国电动汽车的关税。目前，这一关税高达100%，基本上中国的电动汽车无法进入加拿大。不过，这种情况正在改变。对此设置了配额，加拿大的汽车工业主要集中在安大略省，因此当地的国内政治对此感到不满。不过这表明马克·卡尼确实在多元化他的关系，不仅仅是与欧洲的关系，也在加强与中国的关系。目前，加拿大的大部分贸易是与美国进行的，所以多元化这些关系是非常合理和明智的。但这也让总统心生不满。他的演讲明显带有双关语，针对总统。此外，我们即将进行《北美自由贸易协定》（NAFTA）的重新谈判。

In summer, I wish looked like it was going to be difficult. Now one other thing that when it comes to geopolitics, we have to keep in mind on is that there is increasingly risk, not just let's say in Latin America, which you saw up in Venezuela, but there's increasing reports that there are military assets being moved to the Middle East. And that looks like it's going to be something that is going to keep a bit on gold as if there is war in the Middle East. If the US does decide to strike Iran as is periodically reported in big publications, that's going to be a major toe in for gold.

在夏天，我本以为情况会很困难。现在，当谈到地缘政治时，我们必须意识到，风险正在增加。不仅限于拉丁美洲，比如委内瑞拉那里的情况，还不断有报告称有军事力量被调往中东。如果中东爆发战争，这可能会推动黄金价格的上涨。如果美国真的按照一些大刊物定期报道的那样决定打击伊朗，这将会对黄金形成巨大的支撑。

But looking at more traditional metrics, one other thing that happened last week, of course, was just as the South America trade last year unwound with the Treasury being bid again and equities rallying again, last year though, the dollar did not really recover its big sell off and had a pretty bad year last year. This week something similar happened. The dollar also didn't have a good week if you look at the dollar index, notable decline. And of course, weaker dollar gives upward till and to gold.

当然，从更传统的指标来看，上周还发生了一件事。就像去年南美的贸易情况一样，国债再次受到追捧，股市也再次上涨，不过去年美元并没有真正从大幅抛售中恢复过来，度过了相当糟糕的一年。而本周也发生了类似的情况。如果查看美元指数，美元的表现同样不佳，显著下跌。当然，美元走弱往往会提振黄金的价格。

Now dollar has been declining against many currencies, but one currency is has not been declining against is the Japanese yen until, of course, this Friday. So secondly, let's talk about what happened in Japan the past week. So Japan just for context is in a very interesting situation. So inflation, it looks like it's around two between two and three percent. So it's definitely at the BOJ's target. But on the other hand, the BOJ has kept interest rates very low. Even, so it's projected to continue to high grades, but right now it's 0.75% on its policy rate. It's a lot lower than say two and a half percent inflation. At the same time, it's running what many people perceive to be more stimulative fiscal policy.

现在，美元相对于许多货币都在贬值，但有一种货币例外，那就是日元，直到本周五的情况出现变化。那么其次，让我们讨论一下日本在过去一周发生了什么。 日本目前正处于一个非常有趣的局面。通胀率似乎在2%到3%之间，显然达到了日本央行的目标。但另一方面，日本央行却维持着非常低的利率政策。目前利率为0.75%，预计会继续上调，但即便如此，这个利率水平还是远低于大约2.5%的通胀率。同时，日本政府也在实施许多人认为较为刺激的财政政策。

Now, the data suggests that the fiscal position of Japan is improving, but prime minister Takaiichi over there called snap elections is trying to get a bigger majority in a legislator. And I think it's widely perceived that if she were to get more legislative power, she would try to run a more stimulative policy and potentially also have a little bit more say in how monetary policy is conducted. So you have the very much the prospect of some degree of fiscal dominance and also at a time where it doesn't seem like the economy needs that.

现在数据显示，日本的财政状况正在改善，但那边的首相高市早苗宣布提前选举，试图在立法机构中获得更大的多数席位。我认为，普遍认为如果她能获得更多的立法权，她可能会推行更多刺激经济的政策，并可能在货币政策的执行上有更多的话语权。因此，尽管经济似乎并不需要这样的措施，但仍存在一定程度的财政主导的可能性。

And so you have Japanese bonnutes consistently rising. Now to be clear, bonnutes in Japan have been very low. And so for them to adjust to this two, three percent inflation regime plus the prospect that this may continue plus that B.O.J may continue to hike as the market projects is totally reasonable. But it is becoming a little bit disorderly. In the long end of the Japanese bonn, you had a huge, huge upward surge earlier in the week. And that probably played a role in impacting US assets as well as US trajectories as well.

因此，日本的债券收益率持续上升。需要明确的是，日本的债券收益率一直很低。因此，他们需要适应2%到3%的通货膨胀环境，加上这种情况可能会持续，以及日本央行可能会继续加息的市场预期，这是完全合理的。但这有点变得不太有序。在日本长期债券市场，周初出现了大幅上涨。这可能也对美国的资产和市场走势产生了影响。

Now when you further out into the curve, it's going to be less liquid. And so some kind of hiccup is to be expected. And so towards the end of the week, we did see some of that retrace at the B.O.J meeting, the B.O.J officials also suggest that working with the fiscal authorities there to try to maybe do something. So it seems like they're aware of this. But it doesn't seem like it's something that is kind of like a total panic. It really seems to me at least so far that it's the rate market adjusting from decades and decades of disinflation to basically return to more of a normal two to three percent inflation and potentially more as a population ages.

当你把目光投向曲线的更远端时，流动性会减少。因此，出现一些波动是可以预期的。到了本周末，在日本央行的会议上，我们确实看到了一些回调。日本央行的官员们也表示，他们正在与财政当局合作，可能会采取一些措施。因此，他们似乎意识到了这一点。但这看起来并不像是全面的恐慌。至少到目前为止，在我看来，这更像是利率市场从数十年的通货紧缩调整为基本恢复到较为正常的2%到3%通货膨胀，随着人口老龄化，可能还会更高。

Now the flip side, of course, with the B.O.J. keeping interest rates low is that it also has been very negative for the currency. If you look at a chart for USDJPY, you can see that even as the United States dollar depreciated against many other currencies, it continues to appreciate against the yen with the yen surging to around 160 yen to the dollar. Now this has historically been a time where it's been a red line where JAPY's authorities intervene. Part of it is because when you have very weak yen, that becomes a problem for inflation in Japan, especially as they import a lot of stuff like crude oil.

现在，日本央行保持低利率的另一面，当然是对日元汇率非常不利。如果你查看美元兑日元的图表，可以看到即使美元对其他许多货币贬值，但对日元却持续升值，目前汇率接近160日元兑换1美元。历史上，这通常是日本当局干预的关键时刻。部分原因是，日元走弱会加剧日本的通货膨胀问题，尤其是在日本大量进口原油等商品的情况下。

So inflation politically unpopular, the government does something. This time around though, it seems like this was also a red line, but also note that at the moment with energy prices so low, analysts are thinking that this inflationary flow through from weak currencies is not going to be as strong simply because oil is just around $60. The B.O.J. did reportedly seem to intervene. What we saw in the JN market on Friday was that a discrete kind of appreciation in the USDJPY go lower, but then that was just a little bit.

通货膨胀在政治上不受欢迎，所以政府采取了措施。这次似乎又有一个红线，不过值得注意的是，由于目前能源价格很低，分析师们认为由于货币疲软导致的通货膨胀影响可能不会很强，原因之一是油价在每桶60美元左右。据报道，日本央行似乎进行了干预。我们在周五的日元市场看到的是，美元兑日元汇率略微下降，但幅度不大。

What really seemed to kick in the buying in the end, selling a USDJPY was murmurs that there was a rate check by the New York Fed on Friday. What that is is that New York Fed, which is where the trading desk of the Fed is sits, was calling dealers. When the Federal Reserve interacts with markets, they do it through the primary dealers. They're asking about where the end is trading and so forth. That seemed to tip off to the market that maybe the Fed would intervene into the currency markets since that's what you would do. You would see where the market is trading first.

最终促使买入 USDJPY 的直接原因似乎是，市场上传言纽约联邦储备银行在周五进行了“利率检查”。这意味着坐落于纽约的美联储交易部门在联系交易商。当美联储与市场互动时，他们会通过主要交易商进行。他们询问日元的交易情况等等。这似乎向市场暗示美联储可能会干预外汇市场，因为通常的做法是先了解市场的交易情况。

Now the Fed does not have jurisdiction over currency policy. This is going to be on behalf of the Treasury. What it is, it's seeming like Secretary Besend or whoever over there has had enough of this Yen weakness in doing something about it. They could be doing this in coordination with the Japanese authorities. Maybe the Japanese authorities are thinking that our intervention really hasn't been super effective. After all, we only have so many foreign reserves.

美联储现在没有对货币政策的管辖权。这将由财政部负责。看来财政部长贝塞恩或那边的其他人对日元疲软已经忍无可忍，正在采取行动。他们可能会与日本当局协调。也许日本当局在想，我们的干预效果并不是特别明显。毕竟，我们的外汇储备有限。

If we have the US step in, the US has basically a dollar printing press that they can continue to sell dollars in buy Yen, that is to say, strengthen the Yen. Maybe that would be more authoritative. In any case, this was very effective and just the New York Fed. On behalf of the Treasury, just making some phone calls really had a big impact on the market. It's telling everyone that it's not just the Japanese authorities are drawing this 160 USDJPY as a line in the sound, but the US Treasury is on board as well.

如果美国介入，美国基本上可以通过他们的“印钞机”继续出售美元并购买日元，也就是说，增强日元的力量。或许这样会更有权威性。无论如何，这种方法非常有效，仅靠纽约联邦储备银行，就能代表财政部打几个电话，对市场产生巨大影响。这向大家表明，不仅仅是日本当局将160美元兑日元作为一个底线，美国财政部也支持这一点。

I think historically speaking, this sudden strengthening of the Yen has been risk negative. It's interesting to see what happens when markets open on Sunday in the global. It doesn't necessarily mean there's going to be a carried trade blow up. Maybe people don't have heavy positions in that. There are going to be people who are conditioned, maybe algorithms and so forth, to say that a strong Yen is going to be risk off. I think that's going to be interesting to see how that happens.

从历史上讲，日元的突然走强往往被视为对风险不利。这周全球市场周日开盘时会发生什么，确实很有趣。这并不一定意味着“套利交易”会出现大问题。也许大家在这方面的持仓并不重。不过，会有一些人，可能是某些算法程序，已经习惯性地认为日元走强意味着降低风险。我觉得观察这种情况的发展会很有趣。

One other thing, of course, is to note that the BOJ did in their meeting last week, revise up their inflation forecast. The market. Again, continue with, continue to think the BOJ would continue to hike. That should strengthen the Yen, but I think the problem is that they're approaching it too slowly. Inflation is 2-3%. Policy rate is 0.75. They are, by many metrics, still pretty easy. That's all prepared for this week.

当然，还有一点需要注意的是，日本央行在上周的会议上确实上调了他们的通胀预期。市场继续认为日本央行会继续加息。这本应让日元走强，但我认为问题在于他们行动得太慢。通胀率在2-3%之间，而政策利率是0.75%。根据许多指标来看，他们的政策仍然比较宽松。这就是本周所有的准备内容。

This coming week, I believe, is a Fed meeting. I'll be back to talk to you about what I think happened at the Fed. It doesn't look like it's going to be much happening, very, very boring. My guess. An interesting development in the Fed chair races that now Rick Ryder of BlackRock is now favored to be Fed chair. There were some positive comments that were whispered about him over the past week. So we'll see how that happens.

我相信在即将到来的这一周里，美联储会有一次会议。我会在会后回来和你们聊聊我对会议情况的看法。我猜可能不会有什么大事发生，会议可能会非常无聊。一个有趣的进展是，关于美联储主席的竞争，现在来自贝莱德的里克·瑞德更被看好成为美联储主席。过去一周，人们对他的评价有一些积极的传闻。我们看看事情会如何发展吧。

He has an interesting view on Montreux policy. There are tweets that suggest he shares kind of an MMT view. So maybe I'll write about that this week. All right. Talk to you all soon.

他对蒙特勒政策有一个有趣的看法。有些推文暗示他可能持有某种现代货币理论（MMT）的观点。所以也许我这周会写写这个。好的，很快再和大家聊。