The Robotaxi Hearing Was...Wow / FSD Pricing Change / Tesla's Record Breaking Expansion ⚡️
发布时间 2026-01-15 01:29:04 来源
Welcome to Electrified, it's your host, Dylan Lumaise. So, Elon just said Tesla will stop selling FSD after February 14th. FSD will only be available as a monthly subscription thereafter. And maybe eventually we get a slightly discounted annual rate for those that don't want a monthly fee, but Elon did specify monthly. As a shareholder, this is exactly what you want. This will undoubtedly lead to better profitability for Tesla in the long run. But of course, as a consumer, there's some segments of Tesla owners now and in the future that would have been better served by an FSD outright, an option that will no longer exist in 30 days.
欢迎收听《Electrified》，我是你的主持人迪伦·卢梅兹。埃隆刚刚宣布，特斯拉将在2月14日后停止销售FSD（完全自动驾驶）功能。从那以后，FSD将仅以每月订阅的方式提供。也许最终我们会有稍微打折的年度订阅费，以供那些不想选择月费的人，但埃隆特别提到的是按月订阅。作为股东，这正是你想看到的。这无疑会在长期内提高特斯拉的盈利能力。但当然，作为消费者，现在和将来的部分特斯拉车主将会觉得一次性购买FSD对他们更有利，而这种选项将在30天后不复存在。
So, clearly, Tesla wants to own FSD in our unsupervised future and everyone else is going to be effectively renting it from Tesla. And I'll just say for me, I do care a lot more about Tesla stock and Tesla's profitability over the next 10 years of my life than paying whatever the monthly amount ends up at. I'm not saying everybody should feel this way, of course, it depends on how much Tesla stock you own. I'm just making my personal priorities clear. And from that perspective, this is far and away, the superior, much easier option for Tesla.
显然，特斯拉希望在我们无人监管的未来中拥有全自动驾驶（FSD）技术，而其他公司实际上将从特斯拉租用这项技术。对我来说，我更关心未来十年内特斯拉的股票和盈利能力，而不是每个月要交多少钱。当然，并不是每个人都应该这样想，这取决于你持有多少特斯拉的股票。我只是表达我个人的优先考虑。从这个角度来看，这对特斯拉来说是一个更优越且更简单的选择。
And I do understand why some people would argue FSD should come with every Tesla vehicle purchase and just be built into the purchase price. But there's absolutely no way Tesla's going to do that. With the tech, they've spent a decade getting right, they've spent tens of billions of dollars on, and with the tech that's hopefully going to unlock a multi-trillion dollar valuation for the company. And going that route would, of course, raise the price of Tesla vehicles and thus raise the bar for people to get into a Tesla in the first place, which, in my opinion, is not a good idea.
我确实理解为什么有些人认为每辆特斯拉汽车都应该自带全自动驾驶功能，且费用包含在购车价格中。不过，特斯拉绝对不会这样做。这项技术，特斯拉花了十年时间完善，投入了数百亿美元，并寄希望于它能为公司带来数万亿美元的市值。如果将这项技术直接包含在每辆车的价格中，势必会提高特斯拉汽车的售价，从而提高人们购车的门槛。在我看来，这并不是一个好主意。
But the payback period for buying FSD outright is 6.7 years, that's 80 monthly payments of $100 a month. But some will mistakenly say if you own your car longer than 6.7 years, you would be wise to buy FSD. But the problem is that completely overlooks the time value of money, meaning if you were to invest $8,000 in the stock market and get an average 8% return every year for 6.7 years, you'd end up with $13,400. So the opportunity cost is actually materially higher when you make upfront payments like that. Meaning in that scenario, you could pay the $100 monthly fee for 6.7 years and still have $5,400 thanks to your investment, which would make the time you need to own your car even longer, maybe closer to 10 years for that payback period.
购买FSD（全自动驾驶）所需的回本周期为6.7年，相当于每月支付100美元，共80个月。有些人可能错误地认为，如果你拥有汽车超过6.7年，那么购买FSD是明智的选择。但问题在于，这完全忽视了资金的时间价值。也就是说，如果你把8,000美元投资到股市中，平均每年获得8%的回报，经过6.7年后，你将得到13,400美元。所以，当你选择一次性付款时，机会成本实际上要高得多。在这种情况下，你可以每月支付100美元的费用长达6.7年，同时你的投资还能让你剩下5,400美元。这意味着你的汽车需要拥有更长的时间，可能接近10年，才能真正达到回本。
So I think you get the picture there, and let's not forget about Elon's new incentive award, 10 million active FSD subscriptions as a milestone. I'm pretty confident saying outright FSD purchases would not count toward that because of Tesla's wording on the website. It has always referred to subscriptions and purchases as distinct features not interchangeable. So I'm guessing that's a part of this whole scenario as well. And there will be a number of consumers that don't care as much about the math, they just hate the idea of software as a service, and this subscription model culture that we live in, and I understand that.
所以我想你明白我的意思，并且别忘了埃隆的新激励奖项，目标是达到1000万个活跃的FSD（全自动驾驶）订阅用户。我非常有信心地说，直接购买FSD并不会计入其中，因为特斯拉在网站上的措辞一直将订阅和购买视为不同的功能，不能互换。所以我猜这也是整个情况的一部分。还有一些消费者并不太在意账目计算，他们只是反感软件即服务的理念和我们生活中这种订阅模式文化，我能理解他们的看法。
And this means Tesla no longer has to deal with FSD transfers that Elon very clearly did not like doing for whatever reason. But on that point, I'll say this, I really hope Tesla does something for the early adopters, especially those in Europe who have paid full price, and to date have gotten very little in return thanks to regulations. So even if the free FSD transfer goes away beyond this new February 14th deadline, I do think those folks should get one more free FSD transfer even after that. I think it would be the right thing for Tesla to do to say thank you for the early adopters supporting the mission.
这意味着特斯拉不再需要处理埃隆显然不太喜欢的FSD（全自动驾驶）转移问题。不管怎样，我希望特斯拉能为早期使用者做一些事情，特别是在欧洲那些支付了全价但由于法规限制，到目前为止却收获甚微的用户。因此，即使在新的截止日期2月14日之后，免费的FSD转移将不再提供，我仍然认为这些用户应该在那之后再享受一次免费的FSD转移。我认为特斯拉这样做是正确的，作为对早期使用者支持特斯拉使命的感谢。
Personally, I'm not reading too far into the date of February 14th, it could just be someone arbitrary as it's one month from today. Plus, it'll work out well for Tesla to recognize much of the revenue from trade-ins and upgrades and FSD purchases in Q1. We know Elon doesn't really care about quarterly performance, but this should be at least a slight boost to Tesla's Q1 profitability in what's expected to be a week quarter.
就我个人而言，我不会过于关注2月14日这个日期，它可能只是一个随意定下的日期，因为它距离今天刚好一个月。而且，这对特斯拉来说是个不错的安排，因为他们可以在第一季度确认大量来自以旧换新、升级以及FSD购买的收入。我们知道埃隆对季度业绩并不是很在意，但这至少应该能对特斯拉第一季度的盈利能力有些许提升，尤其是在预计会比较弱的季度中。
But yes, I would absolutely take this as a signal that Tesla feels it is one step closer to getting too true unsupervised. Not that us customers will be free of liability in our cars in the next few weeks, but in general, just a step that Tesla has to take before that ever happens because Tesla knows when unsupervised ships, everything is going to change and they will be inundated with demand when the word spreads. All I know for sure, this likely will not be the last pricing change we see.
当然，我绝对会将此视为特斯拉觉得自己更接近实现真正无人驾驶的一个信号。并不是说我们客户在未来几周内就能在车上免除责任，而是说这是特斯拉在无人驾驶真正实现之前必须采取的一步。因为特斯拉知道，一旦无人驾驶推出，一切都会发生变化，当消息传开，他们将面临供不应求的局面。我唯一可以确定的是，这很可能不会是我们看到的最后一次价格变动。
There will almost certainly be a difference in pricing for consumers versus people operating on the commercial side, and if and when customers begin earning revenue with their cars, I think things will change. That is likely sometime away as Tesla would have to validate all of those customer-owned cars going on the network to ensure a minimum standard of cleanliness and reliability. And yes, I think it would be great if there was a usage-based fee for FSD because someone like myself that works from home and rarely drives doesn't get that much value from FSD compared to somebody that commutes an hour every day for work.
几乎可以肯定，消费者和商业用户在定价上会有区别。如果有一天消费者开始通过汽车获得收入，我想情况会有所不同。但这可能还需时日，因为特斯拉需要对所有客户拥有的车辆进入网络进行验证，以确保达到最低的清洁和可靠性标准。此外，我认为如果FSD可以按使用量收费，那将是不错的选择。因为像我这样在家工作且很少开车的人，从FSD中获得的价值远不及每天通勤一个小时上下班的人。
Because if I wasn't hosting this channel and wanting to get the content to test the latest software, $100 a month to drive maybe 100 miles a month to play pickleball is just not a great value. But a pricing setup like that brings with it a lot more complication for Tesla and unpredictable revenue, so I'm not going to speculate I'll leave that to everybody else, but I do think this is Tesla getting everything in place and ensuring the foundation is set before we have the floodgates of unsupervised opening up.
因为如果我不是在主持这个频道并想要测试最新的软件，每个月要花 100 美元开车可能只有 100 英里去打泡菜球，这实在不划算。但这样的定价方案会给特斯拉带来更多的复杂性和不可预测的收入，所以我不会去猜测这个问题，我会把这个留给其他人来讨论。不过，我确实认为这是特斯拉在做准备，确保基础已经打好，以便在无人监管的情况下开放时能够应对。
I'm sorry I have to do this to you, but for me it's truth over everything. LiveRamp has information on 2.5 billion with a B, people, and over 3000 data points per person. And that was as of 2023. So companies today are not just grabbing your name and email, 3000 data points means they're collecting basically everything. Address, phone number, occupation, shopping habits, marital status, travel habits, site visits, and the list goes on.
对不起，我不得不这样告诉你，但对我来说，真相最重要。LiveRamp已经拥有25亿（是十亿）人的信息，并且每个人有超过3000个数据点。这是截至2023年的数据。因此，现在的公司不仅仅是获取你的名字和电子邮箱，3000个数据点意味着他们基本上在收集所有信息。地址、电话号码、职业、购物习惯、婚姻状况、旅行习惯、网站访问记录等等，不胜枚举。
So if you want to fight back against this absurdity, that's why I'm still urging people to sign up for DeleteMe, the sponsor of this video. DeleteMe is an American based company that does one thing. They remove your personal information from data brokers online. And there are hundreds if not thousands of data brokers. So those stats I shared were only one company. DeleteMe's trust pilot reviews that cannot be rigged by the way are excellent and they're constantly putting out helpful material on the latest scams.
所以，如果你想对抗这种荒谬现象，这就是我为什么仍然鼓励大家注册DeleteMe服务的原因，这也是本视频的赞助商。DeleteMe是一家位于美国的公司，专门做一件事情：移除数据经纪人在线上的你的个人信息。而数据经纪人有成百上千家，所以我提到的统计数据只是来自其中一家。顺便提一下，DeleteMe在Trustpilot的评价非常好，而且这些评价无法造假。他们还会不断推出关于最新骗局的实用信息。
Here's my data from my most recent report and it's sad that we have to do this, but it's the world we live in and new data brokers constantly pop up. So unless you want to spend hundreds of hours every quarter for the rest of your life chatting with data brokers, DeleteMe is the best way to fight back and stop them from selling your information around the world. You can head to join deleteme.com slash electrified to get 20% off using my code electrified linked below or by using the QR code on the screen.
以下是我最近报告中的数据，很遗憾我们必须这样做，但这就是我们生活的世界，新数据经纪人不断出现。所以，除非你想每个季度花上数百小时与数据经纪人打交道，否则DeleteMe是反击的最佳方式，能阻止他们在全球范围内出售你的信息。你可以访问 join deleteme.com/electrified，使用我下面提供的代码 electrified 或屏幕上的二维码获取八折优惠。
I did watch the full two and a half hour hearing from yesterday on that federal framework for autonomous vehicles on repairability of vehicles on NHTSA and FMVSS exemptions and overall safety. I'll say this, I am encouraged that almost everyone at the hearing spoke with urgency about passing a federal framework for AVs and they understand why it's needed and there's a healthy fear of losing the self-driving race to China.
我确实完整观看了昨天关于联邦自动驾驶汽车框架的两个半小时听证会，讨论了车辆可修复性、国家公路交通安全管理局（NHTSA）和联邦机动车安全标准（FMVSS）的豁免以及整体安全性。我要说的是，令我感到鼓舞的是，几乎所有与会者都急切地表示需要通过一个联邦框架来管理自动驾驶汽车，他们都理解这是为什么必要的，并且普遍存在一种对落后于中国在自动驾驶领域的担忧。
But there is certainly some concern in the industry and there's still a lot that needs to be worked out before these bills, specifically the self-drive act, can pass both chambers and be signed into law. So here are a few of the most important clips. Do you talk about the vehicle cap and the in the duration of the exemption the shock clock? Yeah, thank you for that specifically. The exemption process is a critical program for getting new safety technologies into the market.
但该行业确实存在一些担忧，而且在这些法案（特别是自动驾驶法案）能在两院通过并签署成为法律之前，还有许多问题需要解决。以下是一些最重要的要点。你能谈谈车辆限额和豁免时长的问题吗？是的，非常感谢你提到这个。豁免程序是将新安全技术引入市场的重要手段。
The problem is the program isn't being used as much as it was used in the past because it's become opaque, unpredictable and to your point the caps on the number of vehicles and the length of those exemptions make it almost an unusable program for the industry right now and we think it's a critical one for new innovative safety technologies.
问题在于，这个项目的使用频率不如过去那么高，因为它变得不够透明、难以预测。正如你所说，车辆数量和豁免期限的限制，使得这个项目对行业来说几乎无法使用。然而，我们认为这个项目对于新的创新安全技术至关重要。
Well what concerns me is the big ugly law electric vehicle incentives and we also have a 25% cut to Knitza staff. So this is something as we're helping lift up AVs, EVs and hybrids are getting cast aside and that's that's concerning to me given the the popularity of them. Mr. Brooks, I want to talk a little bit about redundancy. You know in a lot of these autonomous vehicles, we have both cameras, radar and light arm.
让我担心的是关于电动汽车的激励政策出现了一个大问题，而且我们还对Knitza的员工进行了25%的削减。正当我们在推动自动驾驶汽车的时候，电动汽车和混合动力汽车却被搁置一旁，这让我感到担忧，尤其是考虑到它们的受欢迎程度。Brooks先生，我想谈谈冗余问题。在很多自动驾驶汽车中，我们同时使用了摄像头、雷达和激光雷达。
We do a lot of light arm research in central Florida. How critical is it when you have bad weather, obstructions like small children or debris and expanding the range and improving the accuracy as if for to have that that threefold redundancy in these sensor systems? It's very critical and I think a lot of the issues we have seen with level two vehicles, particularly Tesla is their inability to distinguish during distinguished you know crash events and potential crash events when there is a low light conditions when you know we've seen them this flashing lights we've seen them unable to detect emergency responders and fire trucks and vehicles with you know that are pretty obvious to most of us.
我们在佛罗里达中部进行大量轻型武器研究。当遇到恶劣天气、小孩或碎片等障碍物时，扩大探测范围和提高侦测精度是多么关键？特别是在传感器系统中，有三重冗余的时候，这一点极其重要。我认为，我们在二级自动驾驶车辆（尤其是特斯拉）上看到的很多问题，都是因为它们在低光照条件下无法区分事故和潜在事故。比如，我们看到它们无法检测到紧急救援人员、消防车和车辆，而这些对大多数人来说都是很明显的。
Now are there manufacturers that are using all three of these redundancies because I know that we see that in in in beep and in Waymo and some of these others. Yes and you know Waymo is is is operating at a much higher level of autonomy than Tesla would be. You know Waymo's aren't requiring human drivers to take over at a moment's notice when a problem occurs. So when we're talking about minimum standards this redundancy of having multiple different types of sensors is critical.
现在有没有制造商在使用这三种冗余技术，因为我知道我们从Beep、Waymo和其他一些公司中看到这种情况？是的，并且你知道，Waymo的自动驾驶水平要高得多，比特斯拉要高。Waymo的车辆在出现问题时不需要人类司机马上接管。因此，当我们谈到最低标准时，拥有多种类型传感器的冗余至关重要。
This right here is a prime example in my opinion of regulatory overreach where these people take things too far. In what world should we be relying on Mr. Brooks to tell us what we need on these vehicles in terms of a sensor suite? For me I'd rather defer to Elon and a joke and Tesla's AI team. Not the head of a consumer advocacy non-profit that's focused on vehicle safety. And further I hate when they talk in generalities like what Mr. Brooks said about Tesla not recognizing emergency vehicles. Well is he not in the know about how well it's doing with emergency vehicles now because talking about Tesla's technology from two three four five years ago is not that relevant to where it is today.
在我看来，这是一个监管过度的典型例子，这些人做得太过分了。我们为什么要依赖布鲁克斯先生来告诉我们这些车辆需要什么样的感应系统？我更愿意相信埃隆（马斯克）和特斯拉的 AI 团队，而不是一个专注于车辆安全的消费者权益倡导非营利组织的负责人。此外，我讨厌他们用笼统的语言讲话，比如布鲁克斯先生关于特斯拉无法识别应急车辆的说法。他难道不了解特斯拉现在对应急车辆的处理情况吗？因为讨论特斯拉两三四五年前的技术，对其现在的水平其实没有那么大意义。
Currently I believe the insurance institute for highway safety has noted that eight-ass features don't really have any proven safety benefits at the moment. Which is something that could change for things like lane keeping assistance and other things in the future. But for now I think you know it's another area where I think we need a lot more data collection and research to be able to make a determination. I mean there you have it. This guy just said that eight-ass features don't have any proven safety benefits. So listen yes you can poke some holes in the safety data that Tesla shares itself but to go as far as saying that eight-ass features offer no proven safety benefits is the height of absurdity in my opinion.
目前，我相信公路安全保险协会指出，八大高级驾驶辅助系统（ADAS）功能目前并没有被证明具有安全效益。这一点可能会在未来随着车道保持辅助等功能的发展而改变。但我认为，现在我们需要收集更多的数据和进行更多的研究来进行判断。也就是说，这个人刚才提到这些高级驾驶辅助系统功能没有被证明有安全效益。所以你可以质疑特斯拉自己发布的安全数据，但直接说这些功能没有任何已证明的安全效益，在我看来，这种说法是极其荒谬的。
And it's guys like this making statements like that that our lawmakers are relying on for guidance with these bills. And at a minimum it will force our committee to deal with a real problem. Autonomous vehicles particularly Waymos are showing early safety benefit but lack of coherent federal framework to operate within. At best the self-drive act could create a single set of federal rules for safety for safely deploying AVs across the country while leaving room for local innovation. Like any draft bill it needs improvements that's expected but we shouldn't use that as an excuse to do nothing.
就是像这样的人发表这样的言论，我们的立法者在制定这些法案时依赖这些指导。至少，这会迫使我们的委员会去处理一个真正的问题。自动驾驶车辆，特别是Waymo的车辆，虽然在早期显示出安全优势，但缺乏统一的联邦操作框架。在最理想的情况下，自主驾驶法案可以为自动驾驶车辆在全国范围内的安全部署创建一套统一的联邦安全规定，同时也为地方创新留出空间。像任何草案一样，法案需要不断完善，这很正常，但我们不应该以此为借口无所作为。
All of us should ask those hard questions we'll look at the facts and make changes to improve the bill where needed. So I want to focus on areas where the self-drive act could could be a little bit better. The bill's main tool is something called a safety case. Basically a report arguing an autonomous vehicle is safe. Mr. Brooks are the safety case requirements in the self-drive act strong enough and if not what other information should be required. The safety case requirements in the self-drive act are a little problematic for us mainly because they trigger the preemptive effect of the act but also the safety cases are essentially an autonomous vehicle manufacturer doing their homework in secret.
我们每个人都应该提出那些困难的问题，审视事实，并在必要时进行修改以改善法案。因此，我想专注于自动驾驶法案中可以改进的地方。该法案的主要工具是所谓的“安全报告”。基本上，这份报告是在证明自动驾驶汽车是安全的。Brooks先生，自驾法案中的安全报告要求是否足够严格？如果不够，还有哪些信息需要补充？
自驾法案中的安全报告要求对我们来说有些问题，主要是因为它们触发了法案的优先效应，同时，这些安全报告实际上就是自动驾驶汽车制造商在秘密地完成他们的作业。
You know there's no requirement in the self-drive act for the safety cases to be submitted routinely in any form or reported to the secretary of the DOT or to NITSA. There's no real oversight of that process and even you know when the safety case structure is put together and rule a rule is made by the department around it you know there's some optional features that don't have to be included in the safety case that are difficult for us to understand why they're optional. For instance one of them is around software upgrades and hardware updates. You would think that that would be a critical component of any safety case because hardware upgrades and particularly software updates are taking place all the time in autonomous vehicles and to have that sitting out there as an optional portion of a safety case it makes no sense to us.
你知道，在自动驾驶法案中，并没有要求常规地提交安全案例，也不需要以任何形式报告给交通部部长或国家公路交通安全管理局（NITSA）。这个过程实际上没有真正的监管，而且即便当交通部制定规则时，安全案例的结构已经被确定，你会发现一些选择性条款不必包含在安全案例中，而我们不明白为什么那些条款是可选的。比如，其中之一是关于软件升级和硬件更新。我们会认为这些应该是任何安全案例的关键部分，因为自动驾驶车辆中，硬件和尤其是软件更新是经常发生的，把这样的内容作为安全案例的一个可选部分，我们真的无法理解。
I'll have a link to the full video below but my biggest concern coming away from this is NITSA. Its staff has been cut by 25% and it sounds like it's already understaffed and I know it's under trained on AI and software defined vehicles and further many of these conversations at the hearing were people saying that NITSA needs to do this and test this and set standards for this and much of it will be tough like ensuring regulations for aftermarket modifications and repairs to cars to make sure that they don't impact these driver assistance features think in terms of overall vehicle weight and vision and calibration.
我会在下面提供完整视频的链接，但我最担心的是NITSA。该机构的员工人数已经减少了25%，听起来本来就人手不足。我知道他们在人工智能和软件定义车辆方面的培训也不够。此外，听证会上很多人都在说NITSA需要做这个、测试那个、制定这些标准。很多事情会很难，比如要确保监管售后改装和汽车维修，以保证这些不会影响驾驶辅助功能，比如车重、视觉和校准等问题。
In the self-drive act there's a provision that requires NITSA to publish a final rule by September 30th 2027. That to establish new FMDSS and would mandate AV makers detail safety cases for every version of their cars which is basically demonstrating the systems are capable and safe. Another slight concern I have is that the witnesses at the hearing stressed how this federal framework preempting of state law would be limited but sadly they did not go into detail so we'll have to wait and see exactly how limited it will be and what authority the states will still have even if a federal framework is passed.
在自动驾驶法案中，有一项规定要求国家高速公路交通安全管理局（NITSA）必须在2027年9月30日前发布最终规则。该规则将建立新的FMDSS，并要求自动驾驶汽车制造商为每种版本的汽车提供安全案例，基本上就是证明其系统是可靠和安全的。我还有一个小小的担忧是，在听证会上证人强调，联邦框架对州法律的优先权将是有限的，但遗憾的是他们没有详细说明。因此，我们还需拭目以待，看看这个限制到底有多大，以及即使通过了联邦框架，各州仍会有怎样的权力。
So my guess is we'll get a revised version of the self-drive act that could be passed toward the end of 2026. At that time some mandates like preempting conflicting state laws and upping the exemption cap to 90,000 from 2500 could go into effect immediately but NITSA will need anywhere from a few months to a year that September deadline to adjust the FMDSS the federal motor vehicle safety standards for automated driving. The hope is when that's done purpose-built autonomous vehicles can comply with the new standards through self-certification which would then eliminate the need for those exemptions in most cases.
我的猜测是，我们可能会在2026年底前通过修订版的“自动驾驶法案”。届时，一些规定可能会立即生效，例如取消与联邦法律冲突的州法律，以及将豁免上限从2500辆增加到90000辆。但美国国家公路交通安全管理局（NITSA）可能需要几个月到一年的时间，才能在9月的最后期限之前调整联邦机动车安全标准（FMDSS）以适应自动驾驶的需求。希望在这些调整完成后，专为自动驾驶设计的车辆可以通过自我认证来符合新标准，从而在大多数情况下不再需要这些豁免。
So the 90,000 exemption cap in the self-drive act can be thought of like a bridge until we get to the new FMDSS but overall we finally have movement we have some bipartisan agreement we have Trump and Elon as very pro innovation so while there will be a lot of work behind the scenes still to happen it's shaping up like regulations will not be a serious limiting factor for Tesla.
所以在《自动驾驶法案》中，9万的豁免上限可以被视作一种过渡，直到我们推出新的FMDSS。然而，总的来说，我们终于看到了进展，有了一些两党达成的共识。特朗普和埃隆都大力支持创新，所以即便幕后还有很多工作要做，法规似乎不会成为特斯拉发展的严重限制因素。
Tesla will start CyberCab production in April and likely ramp pretty slowly at first. It'll take most of 2026 for Tesla to get production of the CyberCab to around a thousand a month if I had to guess and who knows what Tesla's robot taxi fleet size will look like at that point but there are enough states where Tesla can scale with the Model Y and CyberCab as it sees fit up to that 2500 exemption limit before any new bill gets passed and then we get that exemption hopefully toward the end of this year freeing Tesla up for 2027 and then it's off to the races for 2028 and beyond.
特斯拉将于四月开始生产CyberCab，但最初可能会比较慢。按我的猜测，他们要到2026年才能将产量提升到每月大约一千辆。至于那时特斯拉的自动出租车队规模会怎么样，目前还不得而知。不过，有足够的州可以让特斯拉凭借Model Y和CyberCab尽可能地扩展，直到达到2500辆的豁免上限。不过希望在今年年底前能获得这个豁免，这样特斯拉在2027年就可以更加自由地进行生产，然后在2028年及后续年份实现更大规模的发展。
As Marco reported Tesla has a massive new supercharger expansion coming to FireBock, California. Tesla was granted a conditional use permit for the addition of 232 stalls north of the existing site and this expansion will also feature 16 new semi-chargers. Thus when it's all said and done this site will have 304 charging stalls 288 for cars and 16 for Tesla semis. Previously the biggest Tesla charging location in the world had 164 stalls also in California.
据Marco报道，特斯拉将在加利福尼亚州的FireBock开展大规模的超级充电站扩建计划。特斯拉获得了一项有条件的使用许可，可以在现有地点以北新增232个充电桩，并将在该扩展区增设16个新的Semi卡车充电桩。因此，扩建完成后，该地点将总共拥有304个充电桩，其中288个用于汽车，16个用于特斯拉的Semi卡车。此前，世界上最大的特斯拉充电站也在加利福尼亚，拥有164个充电桩。
Here's the pin for FireBock California on a map in Fresno County. Max from Tesla said projects like FireBock are years in the making and happen in coordination with the utility and jurisdiction. It takes long term forecasting planning and flexibility decelerating and accelerating based on demand but Tesla charging will keep up with EV adoption.
这是加利福尼亚州FireBock在弗雷斯诺县地图上的位置。特斯拉的Max表示，像FireBock这样的项目需要数年时间的筹备，并与当地电力公司和政府协作。这需要长期的预测规划，根据需求的变化灵活调整速度，但特斯拉的充电设施将会跟上电动车的普及步伐。
People were wondering why this location they thought it seemed like it was in the middle of nowhere but looking up the address of the site and plugging that in you'll see it is directly off of Interstate 5 or i5 and obviously Tesla knows better than anyone else where it needs more charging availability. And of course it'll be a very popular route for Tesla semis and other EV trucks going up and down the west coast.
人们很好奇为什么这个地方看起来像是在偏远的地方，但查找这个地点的地址并输入后，你会发现它就在5号州际公路（i5）旁边。很明显，特斯拉比任何人都清楚哪里需要更多的充电设施。这个地方当然会成为特斯拉半挂卡车和其他电动卡车在西海岸上下行驶时的热门路线。
Tesla started rolling out fsd14.2.2.3 to the early access group, no updated release notes. The early feedback is that the navigation is still goofy. I have watched and read almost all of the reviews about it that are out there so far and it's pretty tough to find any real noticeable changes. Dirty Tesla did note an improvement in parking lot behavior not going down a one way that .2.2.2 did but with a small dot release like this it's likely going to be hard to tell real concrete differences especially with limited testing out there right now.
特斯拉开始向早期体验用户推送FSD 14.2.2.3版本，但没有发布更新说明。早期的反馈是，导航功能仍然比较奇怪。我几乎观看并阅读了目前为止关于这个版本的所有测评，但很难发现明显的变化。不过，Dirty Tesla指出，在停车场环境下，这个版本的表现有所改善，比如不会像14.2.2.2版本那样逆行。但是，对于这样一个小版本更新，尤其是在目前测试用户有限的情况下，想要看到明显的区别仍然不太容易。
The 7-seat interior option is finally available for an extra $2,500. At least for now the 7-seat option is only available for the premium all-wheel drive variant. You can also now choose a 20-inch dark gray helix wheel option for $2,000 and for all premium trims and above the headliner has finally changed to black the gray is gone. And just like we saw in China for the premium trims and above the screen is now bigger at 16 inches up from 15.4 inches in the prior variants. So I think most people would still prefer testlages bring the Model Y L to the United States as the only people getting in the regular Model Y third row are likely to be children. So it's nice to have the option I suppose but we want the Model Y L and really I think most people want a proper three row SUV but it doesn't look like we're going to get that anytime soon.
7座内饰选项终于开放，需额外支付2,500美元。不过，目前7座配置仅适用于高级全轮驱动车型。现在可以选择20英寸深灰色螺旋轮毂，价格为2,000美元。此外，所有高级配置及更高版本的车顶内衬已更换为黑色，灰色款已不再提供。正如我们在中国市场看到的那样，高级配置及更高版本的屏幕尺寸从之前的15.4英寸增大到了16英寸。因此，我认为大多数人仍然希望特斯拉能将Model Y L引入美国，因为只有孩子可能会乘坐常规Model Y的第三排座位。虽然有这个选择是好的，但大家真正希望的是一款合适的三排SUV，只是看起来短期内可能还无法实现。
Waymo expanded its Geofence in Austin and now it sits at 133 square miles whereas Tesla is still at 243 square miles. There is a new study out there floating around from the Pro EV group EVs for all America but I just want to say this is based on about 600 respondents so an incredibly small sample size. But a few of the main points for what it's worth in 2023 a majority of Republican voters 59% agreed EVs are for people who see the world differently than they do. But fast forward two years by November last year only 49% of Republicans agreed with that sentiment. Hence the headline Republicans are finally warming up to electric cars. But we still have 48% of Republicans saying they will probably never buy an EV. One takeaway EVs are perceived by GOP consumers not as vehicles but as statements particularly on climate policy which is just part of why I really do hate politics and the politicization of Tesla is one of the most unfortunate outcomes that we've had.
Waymo在奥斯丁扩大了其地理围栏，现在面积达到133平方英里，而特斯拉的仍然是243平方英里。最近有一个新的研究报告由"美国电动车联盟"发布，但我要说这基于大约600人的反馈，所以样本量非常小。这项研究的一些主要观点是：2023年，多数共和党选民中有59%认为电动车是那些与自己看法不同的人使用的。但到两年后的去年11月，只有49%的共和党人同意这一观点。因此新闻标题是“共和党人终于开始接受电动车”。不过，仍有48%的共和党人表示他们可能永远不会购买电动车。一个结论是，共和党消费者把电动车视为不仅仅是交通工具，而是某种对于气候政策的态度表达。这也是为什么我确实讨厌政治，特斯拉被政治化是我们经历过的最不幸的结果之一。
Of people seriously interested in buying an EV in the next year or so only 54% have a favorable view of Tesla. So again a very small sample size not all Republicans and Democrats are the same across the aisle so I'm not sure we can extrapolate this too much to the broader population. Today the Euro NCAP just put out a new press release talking about the best in class cars tested in 2025. The highest scoring car was the Mercedes Ben's CLA which topped the small family car category and earned the title of best performer of 2025. The other top performers the Mini Cooper E the Tesla Model 3 the Model Y the smart number five and the Pulse Star 3. The updated Model 3 remains a leader in safety the electric family car achieved high scores across the board and particularly impressed in child occupant protection.
对未来一年左右打算购买电动车的人中，只有54%对特斯拉持积极看法。不过，这只是一个很小的样本，不是所有的共和党人和民主党人都有相同的看法，因此我不确定我们能否将这结果过多地推测到更广泛的人群中。今天，欧洲新车评估计划（Euro NCAP）发布了一份关于2025年最佳车型的新闻稿。其中得分最高的是梅赛德斯-奔驰CLA，它在小型家庭车类别中名列榜首，并获得了2025年最佳表现者的称号。其他表现优异的车型有Mini Cooper E、特斯拉Model 3、Model Y、智己5号和Polestar 3。更新后的Model 3在安全性方面仍处于领先地位，尤其是在儿童乘员保护方面取得了高分，表现十分出色。
Its safety assists score shows Tesla's continued improvement of driver assistance safety features. And on the Model Y reinforcing Tesla's dual category victory this year the company's best-selling Model Y proved the gold standard for small SUVs specifically excelling in child occupant protection and safety assist tests. If you're wondering how the CLA beat out Tesla well the CLA scored 94% for adult occupant 89 for child occupant 93% for VR use vulnerable road users and 85% for safety assist and the Model Y was 91% for adult 93% for child 86% for VR use and 92% for safety assist so for VR use it was the CLA's new pop-up hood that gave it the edge. There are sensors in the front bumper that detect when the car hits a pedestrian and in milliseconds you have these actuators that lift the rear edge of the hood up by about 2 to 4 inches and the idea is to create extra crumple space between the pedestrian's head or body and the hard parts of the engine under the hood.
其安全辅助得分显示了特斯拉在驾驶辅助安全功能方面的持续改进。在Model Y车型上，特斯拉今年再次在两个类别中获胜，这款最畅销的Model Y成为小型SUV的金标准，特别是在儿童乘员保护和安全辅助测试方面表现出色。如果你想知道为什么CLA超过了特斯拉，那是因为CLA的评分为：成人乘员94%，儿童乘员89%，对弱势道路使用者93%，安全辅助85%。而Model Y的评分是：成人乘员91%，儿童乘员93%，对弱势道路使用者86%，安全辅助92%。因此，在弱势道路使用者保护方面，CLA凭借新的弹出式引擎盖技高一筹。CLA前保险杠内有传感器，可以检测到车辆与行人相撞时，在毫秒间通过执行器将引擎盖的后缘抬高约2到4英寸。这样设计的目的是在行人头部或身体与引擎盖下坚硬的引擎零件之间创造额外的缓冲空间。
So the Mercedes might be better if you hit somebody but the Tesla might be better at avoiding hitting somebody. Samsung is now going to start supplying 5G modem chips to Tesla. The development of this cellular connectivity chip reportedly started in 2024 and ended last year. Tesla has been using Qualcomm's 5G modem chips but will now switch to Samsung's. The word is Tesla does not want to depend on components made in China and Taiwan so it's switching to suppliers who can make components in South Korea or the USA. And as we've said, Tesla has been deepening its ties with Samsung in more ways than one. Samsung recently signed that 16.5 billion dollar deal with Tesla to make AI 6. Those chips are set to be made at the factory in Taylor, Texas. And Samsung is making some of Tesla's AI 5 chips using the 4nm process node in the US.
因此，奔驰在撞到人时可能会表现得更好，而特斯拉则可能在避免撞到人时更出色。三星现正准备向特斯拉供应5G调制解调器芯片。据报道，这种蜂窝连接芯片的开发始于2024年，并于去年结束。特斯拉一直在使用高通的5G调制解调器芯片，但现在将改用三星的产品。据说，特斯拉不想依赖于中国和台湾的部件，因此会转向选择在韩国或美国生产部件的供应商。正如我们所提到的，特斯拉正通过多种方式加深与三星的合作关系。最近，三星与特斯拉签署了一项价值165亿美元的协议，以制造AI 6芯片。这些芯片将在德克萨斯州泰勒工厂生产。三星还在美国使用4nm工艺节点生产一些特斯拉的AI 5芯片。
And the expectation is Samsung's AI 6 chip will be on the 2nm process. Tesla released a nice new video of the lithium refinery in action. As far as we know, the word is that Tesla is still using an acid-free refining process which is one of the first in the industry to do so. So it avoids certain chemicals, it ultimately reduces costs, and it just produces more environmentally friendly by-products. It was December 2024 where Tesla officially started operations and testing by feeding raw materials through the kiln for the first time. And now the facility is designed to produce enough battery-grade lithium hydroxide for enough batteries for about 1 million EVs per year. And it's the first Spodjamene 2 lithium hydroxide refinery in North America.
预计三星的AI 6芯片将采用2纳米工艺。特斯拉发布了一段新的视频，展示锂精炼厂的运作情况。据我们了解，特斯拉仍使用行业首创的无酸精炼工艺。该工艺避免使用某些化学品，降低了成本，并产生更环保的副产品。2024年12月，特斯拉正式开始运营和测试，首次将原材料送入窑内加工。现在，这个设施每年可以生产足够大约100万辆电动车使用的电池级氢氧化锂。这是北美首个Spodjamene 2氢氧化锂精炼厂。
Road 1, a logistics provider has added its first Tesla Semi-2 its fleet. But it's just the first of a planned edition of 10 of Tesla's Class 8 Semi's to serve the Oakland, California market. The first Tesla Semi has already been in commercial operations for Road 1 for a few months, hauling heavy aluminum loads between its facility and Oakland and Tesla's Fremont factory. Road 1 said the truck is meeting and beating expectations for performance and efficiency. They also said the Semi has been operating at 1.9 kilowatt hours per mile with payloads averaging 38,000 pounds.
运输服务商Road 1在其车队中新增了首辆特斯拉Semi卡车。计划总共引入10辆特斯拉8级Semi卡车，用于服务加州奥克兰市场。目前，首辆特斯拉Semi卡车已经在Road 1中投入商业运营数月，主要负责在其设施、奥克兰以及特斯拉弗里蒙特工厂之间运输重型铝制货物。Road 1表示，这辆卡车在性能和效率方面达到了甚至超出了预期。他们还提到，这辆卡车在运载平均38,000磅货物时，每英里的能耗为1.9千瓦时。
Road 1 manages inventories of aluminum and steel coils and runs continuous operations to keep Tesla's stamping operations supplied without interruption. And as you've seen on the screen, the Metgod and the Wilderness YouTube channel spotted the new Tesla Semi testing on the Fremont track. With the updated light bar going all the way across the front, which I am a big fan of, and we should start to see production ramping of the Semi in the month ahead. And hopefully we get at least a quick update on this on the Q4 call.
“道路1公司”负责管理铝和钢卷的库存，并持续运营，以确保特斯拉的冲压生产线不间断地获得供应。而正如你在屏幕上所看到的，Metgod和Wilderness YouTube频道拍摄到了新的特斯拉Semi卡车在Fremont赛道上的测试。这款卡车前部配备了贯穿整个车头的新灯条，我对此设计非常喜欢。预计Semi卡车在接下来的几个月中会开始加速量产。希望我们能在第四季度的电话会议上至少得到一个简要更新。
Tesla's stock closed the day at $439.20 down 1.79% while the NDX was down 1.07%. The volume was 20% below the average. Don't forget to check out the link below if you want to fight back against those data brokers selling your information. Hope you all have a wonderful day and a huge thank you to all of my Patreon supporters.
特斯拉的股价以每股439.20美元收盘，下跌了1.79%，而纳斯达克100指数则下跌了1.07%。成交量比平均水平低了20%。如果你想反击那些出售你信息的数据经纪人，请查看下面的链接。希望大家度过美好的一天，衷心感谢所有支持我的Patreon用户。