Tesla Merging With SpaceX? / Tesla Resurrects "Dead" Business / Tesla Rumor ⚡️
发布时间 2026-01-13 01:17:33 来源
If you see the RC fleet running around with steering wheels, that's because we had to figure out how to test it. They're not for sale or whatever, that's just just a test feature only. And actually I think it's straight out of the cyber truck wheel. So it's like not even a bespoke thing. Welcome to electrify. It's your host, Dylan Luminus, figured that was an appropriate intro for what the cyber truck account said to Farazad saying, that's mine. I let the robot taxi borrow since it won't need it for long. That, of course, referring to the steering wheels that can currently be seen in the cybercabs that are testing across the country.
如果你看到遥控车队带着方向盘到处跑，那是因为我们需要找个办法来测试一下。那些方向盘不是拿来卖的或者别的，只是一个测试功能。而且，我觉得那个方向盘直接就是来自于Cybertruck，甚至都不是什么专门定制的东西。欢迎来到Electrify，我是你的主持人，Dylan Luminus。我想这段引言非常适合，说的是Cybertruck的账号对Farazad说，那是我的方向盘，我借给自动驾驶出租车用一下，因为它用不了多久。这个当然是指目前可以在全国各地进行测试的Cybercabs身上看到的方向盘。
We now have cyber cab spottings beyond just Texas and California, but now we can add New York to the list and specifically Buffalo. I'm sure it's therefore winter testing, but these photos were taken when the roads were dry as a bone. Stay there long enough though, and the snow will come. And the cyber cab is no longer just testing on city streets, but it's been spotted in numerous different locations on the highway as well. Here's a better shot to show you the cyber truck squircle in the cyber cab.
我们现在不仅在德克萨斯和加利福尼亚发现了网络出租车，现在可以把纽约，特别是布法罗，也加入到列表中。我确信这可能是为了冬季测试，尽管这些照片是在路面干燥时拍摄的。但如果在那里停留足够久，雪一定会到来。而且，这种网络出租车不仅仅在城市街道上测试，还在不同的高速公路上被发现了。这是一个更好的照片角度，可以让你看到网络出租车中的网络卡车的方圆形状。
And this afternoon the official robot taxi account said to cab sharing a picture of the cyber cab outside of Rigglyfield, which of course means the cyber cab is also now testing in Chicago, Illinois. This video was shared of a cyber cab with a California plate testing on the highways in Texas. I shared this because I've heard a rumor, I cannot vouch for the source, so please do not take this with any type of certainty. But the word is that Tesla may end model SNX production at Fremont to eventually make cybercabs instead.
今天下午，官方机器人出租车账号分享了一张网络出租车在Rigglyfield外面的照片，这意味着网络出租车现在也正在伊利诺伊州的芝加哥测试。此外，还有一个视频展示了一辆挂着加州牌照的网络出租车正在德克萨斯州的高速公路上进行测试。我分享这个信息是因为听到一个传言，但我无法确认消息来源的准确性，所以请不要完全相信。这则传言是特斯拉可能会在弗里蒙特工厂停止生产Model S和X，以便最终改生产网络出租车。
And listen, if this turns out to be true, which is a big if, it may not happen for a long time. But if we see some of these prototypes being built and assembled in Fremont, that would make the rumor a bit more plausible, as we know the main production of the cyber cab will be from Giga Texas when it starts in April. As I've said before, I hope this one is not true, I want the model SNX to stick around for as long as possible. I like the idea of Tesla having flagship vehicles that people can move up to aspirationally. I like the idea of them being used for a premium robot taxi ride.
听着，如果这件事是真的，尽管可能性很小，也可能在很长一段时间内不会发生。但如果我们看到在弗里蒙特的一些原型车被制造和组装，那这个传闻就会更可信一点，因为我们知道赛博卡车的主要生产将在四月开始的德州超级工厂进行。正如我之前所说，我希望这不是真的，我希望Model S和Model X能够尽可能长时间地存在。我喜欢特斯拉有旗舰车型，让人们有目标地去追求。我也喜欢这些车型被用作高级自动驾驶出租车的想法。
In the event a group wants to travel with more than two people before the Reboven is ready. But we'll see. Then we had Tesla Chan sharing this image of a cyber cab appearing to be toad. Or getting ready to be toad with absolutely no context. They didn't share what was going on or what happened and sadly I was not able to find any more information. Otherwise, it does not look like it was in any type of accident and prototypes being toad is absolutely nothing out of the ordinary. The very reason these vehicles are out on the roads are to do testing and to work through the bugs of which there will be some.
如果有团体想在Reboven准备好之前与两人以上一起旅行。但我们会再看看。接着，我们看到特斯拉·陈分享了一张图片，上面是一辆看起来像要被拖走的“赛博出租车”。或者说看起来正准备被拖走，但没有任何背景信息。他们没有说明事情的经过或发生了什么，而遗憾的是我也找不到更多信息。此外，这辆车看起来并没有发生任何事故，原型车被拖走其实是很正常的。这些车辆上路的主要原因就是进行测试和解决其中可能存在的问题。
And Adon Guajardo shared this nice short little video with a good shot of the big 21 inch screen on the cyber cab in the parking lot of Terry Blacks in Austin. So we will of course see many more sightings of the cyber cab testing across the country over the next few months as we approach production and I'm most excited to see the wireless charging out in the wild. For now though, I believe I remember hearing the cyber cab has a temporary charge port for these prototypes perhaps in the trunk. But I am expecting sometime around March or April to start seeing some public wireless charging setups in both Austin and the Bay Area.
Adon Guajardo 分享了一个很不错的小视频，里面清晰展示了在奥斯汀的 Terry Blacks 停车场里，一辆 Cyber Cab 上21英寸大屏幕的画面。随着我们逐渐接近量产，未来几个月我们当然会在全国范围内看到更多关于 Cyber Cab 测试的目击。让我最感兴趣的是能在真实环境中看到无线充电的应用。不过，目前我记得听说 Cyber Cab 的原型车可能在后备箱里安装了一个临时的充电接口。但是我预计，大约在明年三月或四月，我们可以在奥斯汀和湾区看到一些公共无线充电设施开始出现。
Senator John Corrin from Texas shared some images saying it was great to be with Elon at Tesla's Gigafactory outside Austin. He was also there with Senate Majority Leader John Thune and the Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso from Wyoming. Elon gave them a tour of the manufacturing lines. Elon and Lars gave them an up close and personal look of the cyber cab. And at this meeting I am sure Elon had his foot all the way on the accelerator pushing for accelerated timelines for the federal framework for autonomous vehicles.
来自德克萨斯州的参议员约翰·科林分享了一些照片，他表示很高兴能和埃隆·马斯克一起出现在位于奥斯汀郊外的特斯拉超级工厂。参议院多数党领袖约翰·图恩和来自怀俄明州的参议院多数党鞭约翰·巴拉索也在场。埃隆带他们参观了生产线，埃隆和拉尔斯还让他们近距离观察了赛博卡车。我相信在这次会议上，埃隆一定全力以赴，推动加速制定联邦自动驾驶车辆的框架时间表。
And remember the House Energy Subcommittee will be hosting that hearing tomorrow January 13th to go over all of those different legislative options for autonomous vehicles. We all know Tesla might technically be one company but it's really a collection of a dozen or so startups under one umbrella but the public would never understand why. Well there's another company where something similar applies. People just think Surfshark is a VPN but they're now so much more than that.
请记住，众议院能源小组委员会将于明天，也就是1月13日，召开听证会，讨论各种自动驾驶汽车的立法方案。我们都知道，特斯拉从技术上讲算是一家公司，但实际上它就像是在一个集团下的一打左右的初创企业的集合，不过公众很难明白其中的缘由。还有另一家公司也是类似的情况。大多数人认为Surfshark只是一个VPN服务，但实际上他们现在提供的服务已经远远超出了这一范畴。
Yes of course they encrypt all of your online activity so no one not even your ISP knows what you're up to as a VPN should. And if you don't yet know how critical that is in 2026 I would encourage you to take a look into how you're being tracked. But Surfshark the sponsor of this video also offers things like alternative ID which keeps your personal info private so you can have an anonymous email address, phone number and even name to use online when creating new account. They recently released the email scam checker tool which has been awesome to have a little backup from AI to help me avoid all of the spam sponsor offers I get. They have the clean web feature that removes ads, trackers and malware. Surfshark helps you get better deals on flights and hotels and honestly the list goes on and on. So if you want to check it out you can head to surfshark.com slash electrified or you can use code electrified at checkout to get four extra months of Surfshark VPN.
当然，他们会加密你所有的在线活动，这样即使是你的互联网服务提供商（ISP）也不知道你在做什么，这正是VPN应该做的。如果你还不知道在2026年这有多重要，我建议你看看你是如何被追踪的。不过，这个视频的赞助商Surfshark还提供了像替代ID这样的功能，可以保护你的个人信息隐私，让你在网上创建新账户时拥有匿名的电子邮件地址、电话号码，甚至名字。他们最近推出了电子邮件诈骗检查工具，有了AI的小帮手来帮助我避免收到所有的垃圾赞助提议，真是太棒了。他们还拥有清洁网络功能，可以去除广告、追踪器和恶意软件。Surfshark还能帮助你获得更优惠的机票和酒店价格，功能实在是多不胜数。如果你想了解更多，可以访问surfshark.com/electrified，或者在结账时使用代码electrified来获得额外四个月的Surfshark VPN服务。
Just touching on it a few days ago Elon said roughly 10 billion miles of training data is needed to achieve safe unsupervised self driving reality has a super long tail of complexity. Some people out there are saying Elon misspoke because back in master plan part do Elon said that we expect regulatory approval worldwide will require something on the order of six billion miles or 10 billion kilometers. So they're arguing Elon meant 10 billion kilometers but I'm not sure that's the case. Remember that guesstimate from Tesla was from July 2016 nearly a decade ago. So for Elon to even be in the same neighborhood I think is pretty impressive. But what I think is happening here is that Elon is adjusting his prediction and it's no longer six billion miles required. It's going to be 10 billion miles required.
几天前，埃隆提到，大约需要100亿英里的训练数据才能实现安全的无人监督自动驾驶，而现实中的复杂性具有非常长的尾巴。一些人认为埃隆说错了，因为在"愿景规划第二部分"中，埃隆曾表示我们预计全球监管批准需要大约60亿英里或100亿公里的数据。所以他们认为埃隆的意思是100亿公里，但我不确定这种说法是否正确。请记住，特斯拉的这个估计来自2016年7月，差不多是十年前的事情。所以，我觉得埃隆即使数值接近也是相当了不起的。但我认为，在此情况下，埃隆是在调整他的预测，现在所需的不再是60亿英里，而是将需要100亿英里。
And yes I do think that's part of why we haven't seen the safety monitors removed in Austin yet. Elon said it was going to happen by the end of last year so I think he's coming out about a week after that deadline giving us a new update on what his expectation is. Now yes this does not have to mean the safety monitors will be in vehicles for another few months. But I will say it's certainly possible but even if the safety monitors are removed in Austin sometime in the next few days or weeks it sounds like we will not see unsupervised rolling out broadly any time until Q2 and beyond. So if we add 700 million miles every 50 days we would need another 150 days or five months to hit Elon's guesstimate of 10 billion miles.
是的，我确实认为这就是我们还没有看到奥斯汀的安全监控员被移除的部分原因。埃隆说原本计划在去年年底前完成，所以我认为他会在期限过后一周出来给我们新的预期更新。不过，这并不一定意味着安全监控员会再在车辆中待上几个月。但我要说的是，这种可能性是存在的。即便安全监控员在未来几天或几周内被移除，我们可能要等到第二季度乃至更久才能广泛实现无人监管。如果我们每50天增加7亿英里，那么我们还需要150天或五个月的时间来达到埃隆所估计的100亿英里里程。
Some others are arguing that Elon's talking about only miles that are fed into the neural net because remember not all miles on FSD are actually used to train the nets. But for me personally I do not think that is the case. I think Elon is referring to total miles traveled on FSD and for my visual learners, Sirn Bacher shared this chart showing the same thing just in visual form that the 10 billion miles on FSD at this current pace should be hit sometime between July and August. And I know that comment from Elon can be interpreted as a negative update given the expectations which is partially why I said this.
有些人认为埃隆所说的只是那些被输入神经网络的行驶里程，因为记住，并不是所有FSD（全自动驾驶）行驶的里程都会用于训练网络。但就我个人而言，我不这么认为。我认为埃隆指的是FSD的总行驶里程。为了帮助视觉型学习者，Sirn Bacher 分享了一张图表，以视觉方式展示了同样的内容，表明按照当前速度，FSD的 100 亿英里行驶里程应该会在七月至八月之间达到。我知道，考虑到人们的期望，埃隆的这番话可能被解读为负面消息，这也是我说这话的部分原因。
I do think it's time for Elon to stop giving public FSD timelines. From my perspective all these predictions are doing is getting everybody's hopes up and then they disillusion Tesla fans when they're ultimately not met. And there's not really any upside because if the timelines are met then it's just the expectation. So other than super fans like you and I getting to swabble over it for a couple weeks it really is mostly just downside. And the truth is I could spend another 5 minutes trying to analyze this and break it down and figure it out. But as we've seen Elon's guesses are just that. Guesses. Lately they have not been very accurate.
我确实认为是时候让埃隆·马斯克停止对FSD（全自动驾驶）给出公开的时间表了。在我看来，这些预测只是在让大家抱有希望，当最终未能实现时，又让特斯拉的粉丝感到失望。而且几乎没有好处，因为如果这些时间表真的实现，也只是符合预期。所以，除了像你我这样的超级粉丝可能为此争论几周外，这基本上只有弊端。事实上，我本可以再花5分钟去分析和剖析这个问题。但正如我们所见，埃隆的猜测仅仅是猜测。最近这些猜测并不那么准确。
And because of semantics we really don't know what he's talking about. Does he actually mean training data that makes it into the neural nets or just FSD miles in general? Is he talking about unsupervised for the customer fleet or is he talking about removing safety monitors in Austin and or the Bay area? Or does he mean unsupervised across America or globally? So for whatever it's worth for me I'm not reading too far into it. My main takeaway is going to be have patience throughout all of quarter one and to keep my expectations low.
由于语义的原因，我们实际上不太清楚他在说什么。他指的是进入神经网络的训练数据还是仅仅是指一般的FSD（全自动驾驶）行驶里程？他是在谈论客户车队的无监督学习，还是在谈论移除奥斯汀和湾区的安全监测员？或者他说的是在整个美国或全球范围内的无监督学习？所以对我来说，我不会对此过度解读。我主要的体会是，在整个第一季度要保持耐心，并降低我的期望。
And a joke said some elements of reasoning like navigation route changes during construction and parking options have already shipped in 14.2. More and more reasoning will ship in Q1. And on one hand I enjoyed hearing that because then it made sense why the navigation routes were sometimes making such poor choices. Tesla has already shipped a new feature that we can call a second level reasoning. And apparently it's going to take some time and maybe a lot of miles to refine that feature and to get things sorted out. And you may remember I shared some FSD parking clips I had on 14.2.2.2 where I said it seemed like the car was passing by, handicap or pick up spots in a way that it had not before. And what a joke said seemed to confirm that was because of this new reasoning in the model.
一句玩笑话说，一些推理元素，比如在施工期间改变导航路线和停车选项，已经在14.2版本中推出了。越来越多的推理能力将在第一季度发布。在某种程度上，我很高兴听到这个消息，因为这让我明白了为什么导航有时会做出糟糕的选择。特斯拉已经发布了一项我们可以称之为“第二级推理”的新功能。显然，这个功能需要一些时间，可能还需要行驶很多里程来完善和整理。我曾分享过一些在14.2.2.2版本下自动驾驶停车的视频片段，我提到看起来汽车以一种以前没有的方式经过了残疾人停车位或接送点。而那个玩笑所说的似乎证实了这是因为模型中加入了新的推理能力。
In somewhat of a surprise motor trend whose historically been pretty critical of Tesla named Tesla's FSD the best driver assistance system on the market. For this year FSD 14 is vastly improved over FSD version 12 and although it remains far from perfect the majority of the flaws in prior versions have been addressed. While its features and capabilities have only improved. And they closed with an important message if you've been burned by a prior version of FSD. We understand your skepticism. Many of our staff were and have been right there with you. That is until they spent significant time behind the wheel with version 14. If you're like these folks and have an open mind or if you're new to Tesla and FSD we think you'll be amazed.
有点令人惊讶的是，一向对特斯拉持批评态度的《Motor Trend》杂志，评选特斯拉的FSD为当前市场上最好的驾驶辅助系统。今年的FSD 14版较之前的12版有了极大改进，虽然仍然不完美，但大多数之前版本的问题已经得到解决，而且其功能和能力也有了提升。在文章的结尾，他们传达了一个重要信息：如果你曾对FSD的早期版本感到失望，我们理解你的怀疑。我们团队中的许多人也曾有同样的感受，但在实际使用14版一段时间后，他们的看法发生了改变。如果你和这些人一样持开放态度，或者你是特斯拉和FSD的新用户，我们相信你会感到惊喜。
So it's nothing you and I don't already know but I do think it's not worthy coming from motor trend who again has not pulled any punches toward Tesla over the years. Jamoth Polly Haapatia made a crazy prediction for this year. My contrarian belief number one is I don't think SpaceX will IPO. I think that it will reverse merge into Tesla and I think Elon will use it as a moment to consolidate control and power of his two seminal assets into one captable. Oh my god I love that. Why? He's talked about that before he's talked about having a holding company for years of all of the collection you could put in your link in there too right. You could put in the boring company as well.
这段文字翻译成中文如下：
所以，这并不是你我不知道的事情，但我认为来自Motor Trend的评价还是有一定意义的，毕竟他们这些年来对特斯拉一直敢于直言。一位名叫Jamoth Polly Haapatia的人今年做出了一个疯狂的预测。我的第一个反向观点是，我认为SpaceX不会进行首次公开募股（IPO）。我认为它会反向合并到特斯拉中，我认为埃隆·马斯克会借此机会整合和控制他两大重要资产的股权。哦，我喜欢这个想法。为什么呢？因为他之前谈到过这个问题，他谈到多年来为他的所有公司创建一家控股公司。你也可以把无聊公司（The Boring Company）放进这个组合里。
Listen up referring to what Jay cow said there's a huge difference between a reverse merger and a holding company those are not at all the same thing. And specifically what Jamoth said was a reverse merger where SpaceX and Tesla at the end of the day would become one major company. That's very different than Tesla and SpaceX remaining two separate entities under one bigger umbrella. Before I even touch on this briefly I do just want to say I think this has a near zero percent chance of happening. So until Elon gives some public indication that this is a real possibility I'm not going to dive into the weeds.
注意，根据Jay Cow所说，反向并购与控股公司有很大区别，这两者完全不是一回事。具体来说，Jamoth提到了一个反向并购的情况，其中SpaceX和特斯拉最终将合并成为一家大型公司。这与特斯拉和SpaceX作为两个独立实体在一个更大的集团下存在是非常不同的。在简单谈论这个问题之前，我想说，我认为这种情况发生的可能性几乎为零。所以，除非Elon公开表示这是一种真实可能性，否则我不会深入探讨。
But in short a reverse merger would mean SpaceX would merge into Tesla making SpaceX dissolve as a separate entity. And yes it would be diluted for Tesla shareholders because ultimately Tesla would issue new shares to give to SpaceX investors. So diluted yes but a creative as well because of course this new giant organization would have a much higher valuation too with SpaceX included. If I had to play devil's advocate for my own opinion on this one I would say this would give Elon an opportunity to have more control over the new entity. Maybe through a mechanism like this Tesla could end up issuing some super voting shares to give to Elon to give him more control of both Tesla and SpaceX.
简单来说，反向合并意味着SpaceX将与Tesla合并，使SpaceX作为一个独立实体不复存在。的确，这会导致Tesla的股东权益被稀释，因为Tesla最终会发行新股，以给予SpaceX的投资者。虽然会被稀释，但这也是一个创造性的举措，因为加入SpaceX后，这个新的巨型公司会有更高的估值。如果要为自己的观点找个反例，我会说这给了Elon一个机会，让他更好地控制新实体。或许通过这样的机制，Tesla可以发行一些超级投票权的股票给Elon，以增强他对Tesla和SpaceX的控制力。
But again one of the problems is Elon has already said publicly that a 2026 SpaceX IPO was accurate. And obviously an IPO is not a reverse merger. Further one has to believe there would be some antitrust and monopolistic concerns and that we would see some shareholder lawsuits from Tesla and or SpaceX investors. And yes obviously that's not a reason not to go that route but it's something that Elon and the team would have to consider. And remember it wasn't just a prediction from Chimath it was for the Contrarian take segment. Said another way it was a hot take.
不过，其中一个问题是，埃隆已经公开表示，2026年SpaceX的IPO是准确的。显然，IPO与反向并购不同。此外，人们还必须考虑到可能会出现一些反垄断和垄断方面的担忧，同时特斯拉或SpaceX的投资者也可能会提起股东诉讼。当然，不应因为这些问题就完全不考虑这条路径，但这是埃隆和他的团队需要认真考虑的。而且要记住，这不仅仅是Chimath的预测，而是针对"逆向观点"部分所发表的。换句话说，这就是一个"大胆观点"。
One that personally I don't think requires any further exploration at this point until something changes. Because again I think the chances of something like that happening are very very low. Elon and XAI recently announced the biggest private investment in Mississippi state history. It will be a 20 billion dollar plus investment when it's said and done. The site itself covers 800,000 square feet and will be the home of XAI's Colossus 3. Things might change in the next few months depending on what the competition does but this is set to be the biggest data center in the world.
目前我个人认为这个问题不需要进一步探索，除非情况发生变化。因为我认为这种事情发生的概率非常非常低。埃隆和XAI最近宣布了密西西比州历史上最大的一笔私人投资。当最终完成时，这将是一项超过200亿美元的投资。该场地占地80万平方英尺，将成为XAI的Colossus 3的总部。未来几个月的情况可能会因为竞争对手的动作而有所变化，但这个项目计划成为全球最大的数据中心。
And when it's done it will be around two gigawatts of coherent training compute. Why Mississippi? Well in part because it's a chip shot away from XAI's Colossus 2 that's in Tennessee. That's what Elon and the team call macro hard and that building is 1 million square feet. But the new building for Colossus 3 will be called macro harder and despite the slightly smaller square footage it will likely use the more advanced chips coming from in video. The governor of Mississippi said why Mississippi Elon said it best insane execution speed. We can get you from spending money to making money faster than any state in America and that's our competitive advantage. Remember Elon just said Tesla's cortex 2 for optimist training and some level of FSD in Austin will be adding 500 megawatts or a half a gigawatt coming online sometime this summer.
当完成后，它将拥有大约两个吉瓦的连贯训练计算能力。为什么选在密西西比州呢？部分原因是因为这里离位于田纳西州的XAI的“巨神兵2”很近。Elon和团队称它为“宏硬”，这栋建筑有100万平方英尺。但用于“巨神兵3”的新建筑将被称为“更宏硬”，尽管面积略小，但它可能会使用来自NVIDIA的更先进的芯片。密西西比州的州长问为什么选择密西西比，Elon给出的最好答案是：惊人的执行速度。我们可以比美国任何一个州更快地让你从花钱到赚钱，这就是我们的竞争优势。别忘了Elon刚刚提到，位于奥斯汀的Tesla“核心2”用于优化训练和某种程度上的全自动驾驶（FSD），将增加500兆瓦或半个吉瓦的在线容量，预计将在今年夏天某个时候上线。
Meaning once the Colossus build out is done if it does hit that 2 gigawatt number that's 4 times bigger than Tesla's cortex 2. Which is certainly exciting to think about the AI advancements to be expected from this extra compute. However, it's not free. This will become one of the most energy intensive AI facilities in the world and according to Elon it could require electricity comparable to that used by about 1.5 million US homes. And maybe in a future episode will take a closer look but Elon's clearly in full sprint mode and this will of course help GROC develop new levels of sentience and capability which will benefit Tesla vehicles and eventually optimists.
一旦Colossus项目完成，如果它真的达到了2吉瓦的规模，那就比特斯拉的Cortex 2大四倍。这使人对由此带来的人工智能进步感到兴奋。不过，这并不是没有代价的。根据埃隆的说法，这将成为世界上耗能最多的AI设施之一，可能需要相当于约150万美国家庭所用的电量。也许在未来的某一集节目中我们会更深入地探讨这个话题，但显然埃隆正全力以赴，这当然会帮助GROC开发出更高水平的自主意识和能力，从而使特斯拉的汽车甚至其他产品受益。
And the learnings that XAI gets from this undertaking for everything from factory design to cooling will also be shared with Tesla. As Marco shared Tesla's planning a massive supercharger build out on Hawaii's two biggest islands permits have been filed for three new sites two on the island of Hawaii and one on the island of Maui. Looking at Tesla's map of the Hawaii and islands you can see only 5 supercharger locations exist now, 4 of which are on Oahu and one of which is on Maui. So Hawaii will be getting 2 and Maui will be getting 1 more.
XAI从这项工作中获得的经验和知识，包括工厂设计和冷却系统的内容，也将与特斯拉分享。正如Marco所说，特斯拉正在计划在夏威夷两个最大的岛屿上大规模建设超级充电站，目前已经提交了三个新地点的许可申请，其中两个在夏威夷岛，一个在茂伊岛。查看特斯拉的夏威夷和岛屿地图可以看到，目前只有5个超级充电站，其中4个位于瓦胡岛，1个位于茂伊岛。因此，夏威夷岛将增加2个充电站，而茂伊岛将增加1个。
After about 3 years of silence for Tesla's insurance program we now get a couple drumbeats. Tesla has now filed to launch its insurance program in Tennessee. The proposed effective date is March 1st, 2026. And the coverageer said for the first 9 months of 2025, Tesla's insurance carriers generated $747 million in written premiums. And another one, as of today, Tesla filed for their insurance program in Indiana. Same proposed effective date March 1st this year. I have not seen anything official about how Tesla insurance will launch in Indiana and Tennessee. Because remember now that Tesla insurance is live in Florida, it's currently limited to buyers of new Teslas.
在大约三年的沉寂后，特斯拉的保险计划现在有了一些动静。特斯拉已提交文件，计划在田纳西州推出其保险计划，计划生效日期为2026年3月1日。此外，据报道，在2025年的前九个月，特斯拉的保险合作伙伴产生了7.47亿美元的保费收入。而且，特斯拉今天已在印第安纳州提交了其保险计划的申请，计划生效日期也是今年的3月1日。不过，目前还没有关于特斯拉保险如何在印第安纳州和田纳西州推出的官方信息。请记住，现在特斯拉的保险已经在佛罗里达州上线，不过目前仅限于新的特斯拉购买者。
Meaning existing owners do not yet have access. But either way, when these two new states are added that will be 15 states where Tesla insurance is available. You might remember on Tesla's Q3 slide deck last year they said we recently launched a new lease offering in the US for solar and power wall that provides our customers with predictable energy costs. They said it would come with a lower monthly payment compared to loans, a system availability guarantee for the full lease term and a buyout option after five years.
这句话的意思是，现有的车主目前还无法使用这项服务。但是，无论如何，当这两个新的州被添加时，将有15个州可以使用特斯拉的保险。你可能还记得在特斯拉去年第三季度的报告中，他们表示我们最近在美国推出了一项新的太阳能和电池墙租赁服务，为客户提供可预测的能源成本。他们说，这项服务的月租金会比贷款低，整个租赁期内系统的可用性有保证，并且在五年后提供购买选项。
Well, a few months later and we got news that Tesla has officially started deliveries of its new and improved solar panel design. Although subjective, the curb appeal of these panels should be improved and the shade tolerance is now much better. These 420 watt panels remove things like the aluminum clamps and the silver frames and the gaps that expose your roof or the shingles below the traditional solar panels. The new ones have an all black finish and a thicker frame which gives it that unified matte black appearance.
几个月后，我们收到消息，特斯拉正式开始交付其经过改进的新型太阳能板。尽管个人感受可能不同，但这些面板的外观吸引力应该有所提升，并且其对阴影的耐受性也显著改善。这些功率为420瓦的面板去掉了铝制卡扣、银色边框以及传统太阳能板下暴露屋顶或瓦片的缝隙。新的面板采用全黑色设计和更厚的边框，使其整体呈现出统一的哑光黑外观。
Plus the mounting system that's now hidden means the panels only sit about an inch and a half off the roof. Whereas on the older designs they were around three inches off the roof. Tesla's new panel has 18 individual power zones on each one compared to traditional solar panels that usually have six. What this means is if you have a chimney or a branch or a building that shades maybe one, two or three zones, the remaining independent power zones can continue to harvest energy at peak efficiency. So the wattage may only be up 10 watts from 410 to 420 but the overall efficiency should be much improved and they're touting module efficiency of 20 and a half percent.
加上现在隐藏式的安装系统，面板仅离屋顶约一英寸半远。而旧设计中，面板大约离屋顶三英寸。特斯拉的新型面板每块有18个独立的发电区，而传统的太阳能板通常只有六个。这意味着如果你的屋顶有烟囱、树枝或建筑物遮挡住了其中的一、二或三个发电区，剩余的独立发电区仍可继续以最佳效率发电。因此，虽然功率可能仅从410瓦增加到420瓦，但整体效率应有显著提升，他们宣称模块效率达到20.5%。
So these solar panels are of course made in the USA at Giga New York and hopefully in the future Tesla brings back the solar deployed line on the quarterly slide decks. Because for the last few quarters Tesla just outright removed it. So most importantly Tesla has not abandoned its own solar panels. It's still pushing the tech forward and even if this new leasing option doesn't take off. I still think this is a great sign that Tesla will likely be involved with those AI powered satellites that SpaceX will likely be sending up in the years to come.
这些太阳能板当然是在美国纽约的Giga工厂生产的，希望未来特斯拉能在季度演示文稿中重新加入太阳能部署的相关数据。因为在过去的几个季度中，特斯拉完全移除了这部分内容。但最重要的是，特斯拉并没有放弃自己的太阳能板，仍然在推动这项技术的发展。即使新的租赁选项不成功，我仍然认为这是一个好迹象，暗示特斯拉可能会参与到SpaceX未来几年可能发射的AI驱动卫星项目中。
Today Mercedes said it's pausing its level three driving assistance feature in the upcoming S class. And according to Mercedes the new EQS will also exclude drive pilot. And of course Mercedes is saying it won't be a downgrade although we're going to level two plus plus they're saying it'll be like Teslas allowing customers to use it in a much wider variety of scenarios rather than being super limited. German outlet Honda's blot said production costs and demand were not in proper balance. Instead Mercedes is going to initially focus more on automated driving assistance where the driver has to remain attentive.
今天，奔驰表示将在即将推出的S级车型中暂停其三级驾驶辅助功能。根据奔驰的说法，新的EQS车型也将不再配备驾驶员辅助功能。当然，奔驰强调这不会是一个降级，尽管我们将降到二级增强版，他们表示这将类似于特斯拉，让客户可以在更广泛的场景中使用，而不是被过于限制。德国媒体Honda's blot指出，生产成本和需求没有达到理想的平衡。因此，奔驰计划最初把重心更多放在自动驾驶辅助上，要求司机保持专注。
In short Mercedes said there wasn't enough demand for this system and it costs too much. So effectively Mercedes is backing off of its own in-house approach to autonomy scrapping that and saying instead they're going to focus on their partnership with Nvidia. Which means they're going back to focusing on that level two plus plus without pomyle and for them any plans for level four or beyond will require LiDAR. David Moss the legend that went coast to coast in his Tesla 100% on FSD has now crossed 12,000 consecutive miles in a row without any disengagement takeovers, red hands alerts or anything. That includes all parking and charging stops. He hasn't touched the wheel since late November and here's the photo confirmation a true 100% on FSD.
简而言之，奔驰表示这个系统需求不足，成本过高。因此，奔驰决定放弃其自主研发的自动驾驶技术，而是将重心转向与英伟达的合作。也就是说，他们将专注于提升Level 2++的自动驾驶技术，而要达到Level 4或更高的级别，则需要使用LiDAR雷达。David Moss，这位传奇人物在他的特斯拉上使用完全自动驾驶（FSD）系统成功地进行了一次从海岸到海岸的长途驾驶，如今已经连续行驶了12,000多英里而无需人工干预，包括停车和充电过程。他自去年11月底以来就没碰过方向盘，并提供了一张照片作为证明，展示了真正100%的自动驾驶。
You may have seen last week that lucid, neuro and uber unveiled their global robotaxi at CES and their announcement was they're now testing it on roads. But I wanted to save that one for a time like today when we heard that lucid CEO replaced the software team after the gravity's buggy launch. So the gravity lucid's most important launch yet debuted last year with a raft of technical issues. So Mark Winteroff said I basically replaced the whole software leadership team. We are working through this and we're actually very close.
你可能在上周看到Lucid、Neuro和Uber在CES上发布了他们的全球自动驾驶出租车，并宣布他们正在进行道路测试。但我想留到今天再谈这个消息，因为我们听说Lucid的CEO在Gravity车型出现软件问题后更换了软件团队。Gravity是Lucid迄今为止最重要的发布车型，去年亮相时伴随一系列技术问题。Mark Winteroff表示：“我基本上更换了整个软件领导团队。我们正在解决这些问题，而且确实非常接近解决方案。”
Obviously all uber is going to bring to this partnership is people. Lucid is apparently having all kinds of problems with the basic software in its vehicles, which means all of the tech prowess would have to come from neuro for any robotaxi for this group. And not to belittle neuro's accomplishments but to date they've mostly just been a last mile delivery service, which you guessed it have been limited to pre-mapped geofenced areas. So I just think everybody needs to pump the brakes with this partnership as lucid only produced about 18,000 cars for all of 2025.
显然，Uber在这个合作中主要就是提供人力。Lucid公司的车辆软件似乎存在各种基本问题，这意味着如果这组公司要开发无人出租车，所有技术实力大概都要依赖于Neuro公司。但并不是看不起Neuro的成就，到目前为止，他们主要也只是提供最后一公里的送货服务，这些服务也仅限于预先绘制地图的地理围栏区域。因此，我认为大家对这个合作要谨慎，因为Lucid在整个2025年也就生产了大约18,000辆车。
And I really do hope this on-road testing goes well and leads to something. But by the time this vehicle is ready for deployment in one city, we're very likely to already be in 2027. And you probably saw Ford is targeting eyes off driving starting with a $30,000 EV by 2028. Meaning Ford's going to try to do what Mercedes just scrapped. Maybe I'm just a little fed up with all of the empty promises from the industry, but it just feels like most of these companies really have no idea what they should be doing.
我真的希望这次道路测试能顺利进行并取得成果。但等到这辆车在一个城市准备部署时，很可能已经是2027年了。你可能看到福特计划到2028年开始推出一款售价3万美元的电动车，这款车可以实现"眼不离路"的驾驶。也就是说，福特打算做奔驰刚刚放弃的事情。也许我只是对行业里那些空头承诺感到有些厌烦，但感觉这些公司大多真的不知道自己该做什么。
They're just throwing whatever at the wall and hoping something sticks. Tesla has a new job posting for an iOS engineer for the robotaxi app. This role will be instrumental in building the user-facing features that define how millions of people interact with fully autonomous vehicles. This team is responsible for the core mobile experience that enables customers to summon, track, and interact with a driverless vehicle. From requesting a ride to enabling frictionless entry, from trip planning to real-time vehicle status in media control, your work will power the interface between users and their autonomous rides.
他们只是随便尝试，希望能成功。特斯拉新发布了一个招聘信息，招募一名为机器人出租车应用程序开发的iOS工程师。这个职位将负责设计和构建面向用户的功能，这些功能将定义数百万人如何与全自动驾驶车辆进行互动。这个团队负责构建核心移动体验，使用户能够召唤、跟踪并与无人驾驶车辆进行互动。从叫车到无缝进入，从旅程规划到实时车辆状态和媒体控制，您的工作将驱动用户与其自动驾驶车辆之间的界面。
You'll take full ownership of features from architecture design to robust implementation delivering delightful and polished experiences that make robotaxi not just functional but magical. And they will also contribute to the broader mobile app experience used by millions of Tesla owners worldwide. Francis Energy is now the next company to White Label, Tesla's superchargers. The latest site in Norman, Oklahoma will open tomorrow, January 13th. According to EVWire, Oklahoma is now the only US state that does not have Tesla running the show as the charging operator with the most stalls deployed.
你将全面负责从架构设计到稳定实施的所有特性，提供令人愉悦、精致的体验，让自动驾驶出租车不仅仅是功能性强大，还带有一丝魔幻色彩。同时，这些特性也将为全球数百万特斯拉车主所使用的移动应用程序提供更广泛的贡献。Francis Energy公司已成为下一个以白标形式使用特斯拉超级充电站的公司。位于俄克拉荷马州诺曼市的最新充电站将在1月13日，也就是明天，正式开放。据EVWire报道，俄克拉荷马州现在是美国唯一一个特斯拉不是充电运营商中拥有最多充电桩的州。
As of late last year, Francis Energy had the most with 716 ports compared to Tesla with just 54. According to supercharge.info, Francis Energy is planning a few other sites in Oklahoma as well, where yes, they will be deploying more Tesla superchargers. And yes, these third party-owned White Labeled Superchargers do show up in the Tesla navigation. You may remember a few months back, we talked about Sun Coast in Florida, White Labeling their own superchargers.
截至去年年底，Francis Energy 拥有最多的充电站，共有716个端口，而特斯拉只有54个。据 supercharge.info 网站介绍，Francis Energy 还计划在俄克拉荷马州增设几个新的站点，并会部署更多的特斯拉超充站。是的，这些由第三方拥有的白标超充站确实会出现在特斯拉的导航系统中。你可能还记得几个月前，我们讨论过佛罗里达的 Sun Coast 也在为他们自己的超充站进行白标化。
And along these lines on the Tesla Motors Club Forum, there's a thread going on. We have a gentleman paying for the three superchargers out of pocket, a 100% self-installation. Tesla is charging 10 cents per kilowatt hour for 10 years of 99% uptime and all of the maintenance is free. And this individual got a lifetime lease on the property from the city as long as these chargers remain operational. This program has already launched in the UK with 30 different sites live, and they look just like any other supercharger in the car and the app.
在特斯拉汽车俱乐部论坛上，有一个讨论正在进行中。有一位先生自己掏钱支付三个超级充电站的费用，并且是完全自我安装的。特斯拉收取每千瓦时10美分的费用，保证10年99%的正常运行时间，所有的维护都是免费的。而这位先生则从市政府获得了永久使用该地的租约，只要这些充电站保持运行。这项计划在英国已经启动，有30个不同地点的设施已经投入使用，它们在汽车和应用程序中看起来就像其他超级充电站一样。
This member said there's no free supercharging for those with lifetime free supercharging, they'll just get one time free at any third party location. So no guarantee that's the case in the US, but it might be a safe bet until we get more official info. In the UK, all of the sites have a fixed price, and there's no discount for Tesla owners. And yes, the owners of these supercharger stalls can set their own price. Wendy drew the owner of the site said these are V3 pedestals with a V3 cabinet, and I'm sharing all of this because he did share I'll be under $150,000 all in when all is said and done.
这位成员表示，即使拥有终身免费超级充电的人，也不会在任何第三方位置享受到免费充电的服务，他们只能得到一次免费的机会。目前在美国并不能保证是这种情况，但可能可以暂时这样假设，直到我们得到更多官方信息。在英国，所有地点都有固定收费标准，并且特斯拉车主没有任何折扣。这些超级充电桩的所有者可以自行设定价格。根据Wendy Drew这个地点的所有者所说，这些都是V3桩位加上V3机柜，我之所以分享这些信息，是因为他提到，在一切完成后，总成本会低于150,000美元。
Pretty amazing for 250 kilowatt equipment compared to the competition. For stalls simultaneously would be a million dollars plus for the competition. That means all in landed we're looking at roughly $37,500 per stall. This location is in Bellville, Kansas, and the owner did say that that 150,000 number did include the concrete as well. So hopefully this business grows for everyone exponentially in the years to come.
对于250千瓦的设备来说，相比竞争对手非常了不起。如果是同时安装充电桩，竞争对手的费用将超过百万美元。这意味着，总计来说，我们每个充电桩的成本大约是37,500美元。这个地点位于堪萨斯州的贝尔维尔，业主也确实提到15万美元的费用包含了混凝土的成本。所以，希望在未来的几年里，这个业务能让每个人的收益成倍增长。
I'd imagine that the fee Tesla charges these companies for ongoing maintenance, like in this case, $0.10 per kilowatt hour, will change based on the location and cost of electricity and so on, but Tesla will of course be making money selling the hardware at a margin. And the companies that own the chargers can set their own rates to ensure that they're making a margin over time. And of course the idea is that ultimately they get more customers by owners seeing these chargers in the in-car nav.
我想，特斯拉向这些公司收取的持续维护费用，比如在这个例子中是每千瓦时0.10美元，会根据地点和电力成本等因素而变化。但是，特斯拉当然会通过以一定利润出售硬件来赚钱。而拥有充电桩的公司可以自行设定收费标准，以确保他们能够长期获得利润。当然，这样做的想法是通过车主在车载导航中看到这些充电桩，最终能够吸引更多的顾客。
BP Pulse recently installed a 750 kilowatt megacharger at its first public E-truck depot in California. This site in Ontario, California will have two 750 kilowatt Tesla MCS pool through bays. And BP Pulse said our ultra-fast EV truck charging station will soon be live and open to the public. Some of you will remember that $100 million deal between BP Pulse and Tesla that initially focused on V3 superchargers.
BP Pulse最近在其位于加利福尼亚州的首个公共电动卡车停靠站安装了一台750千瓦的超级充电器。该位于加州安大略的地点将设有两个750千瓦的特斯拉MCS双向充电通道。BP Pulse表示，我们的超高速电动卡车充电站即将投入使用并向公众开放。可能有些人会记得BP Pulse和特斯拉之间那项最初专注于V3超级充电器的1亿美元协议。
Well, apparently that deal is being expanded to include the megawatt charging system for semis as well. So Tesla is opening up its charging network and hardware in more ways than one. Not only can companies go by V3 and V4 supercharging stalls, but they can execute the same idea for semi-charging as well. BP Pulse will own the site and the hardware, set their own pricing, and Tesla will likely charge a small per kilowatt hour fee in order to provide the ongoing maintenance and keep the uptime.
据说，这项协议正在扩大范围，现在也涵盖了大型卡车的兆瓦充电系统。因此，特斯拉正在通过多种方式开放其充电网络和设备。不仅各公司可以使用V3和V4超级充电桩，他们还可以为大型卡车实现同样的充电想法。BP Pulse将拥有这些场地和设备，并自行设定价格，而特斯拉可能会按每千瓦时收取少量费用，以提供持续的维护服务并保持系统的正常运行。
And no, Tesla's goal here is not to make as much money as possible. It's to get the infrastructure built out as fast as possible. The boring company president announced some updates and they said once the strip and downtown tunnels are completed and the system is completed, which will take a few years, Vegas loops Tesla fleet will grow to as high as 1200 vehicles.
不，特斯拉的目标并不是赚取尽可能多的钱，而是尽可能快地建设基础设施。无聊公司（The Boring Company）的总裁宣布了一些最新进展，他们表示一旦拉斯维加斯大道和市区的隧道完工，整个系统也随之建成，这可能需要几年时间。届时，拉斯维加斯环线中特斯拉车辆的数量将增加到多达1200辆。
At that point, the larger capacity Tesla Reboven will be introduced to the loop system mainly to be used during large events where several passengers are going to the same destination. I probably will shift to saying RoboVan in the future, but the Reboven inside joke is fun to say. Morgan Stanley's new Tesla analyst said it's not even close. Tesla continues to lead an autonomous driving even as Nvidia rolls out new technology.
到那时，更大容量的特斯拉Reboven将被引入环线系统，主要用于在大型活动期间，当有多个乘客前往同一目的地时使用。我可能以后会改称为RoboVan，但Reboven这个内部玩笑说起来很有趣。摩根士丹利的新特斯拉分析师表示，这还远远不够。即使Nvidia推出新技术，特斯拉仍在自动驾驶领域保持领先。
He believes Tesla remains years ahead of competitors when it comes to autonomy. Nvidia's latest advances don't materially change its Tesla outlook as building a full self-driving stack is measured in years, not months. The EV scene for the rest of the industry has been so bleak as of late, but Polestar had its sales rise 27% in Q4 and for 2025 it sold 60,119 cars, which was up 34% to year over year.
他认为，在自动驾驶技术方面，特斯拉仍然领先于竞争对手好几年。Nvidia的最新进展并没有实质性地改变特斯拉的前景，因为完成一个完整的自动驾驶系统是以年为单位来衡量的，而不是几个月。最近，电动车行业的整体形势非常低迷，但Polestar在第四季度的销量增长了27%，到2025年销售了60,119辆车，同比上涨了34%。
And many of you know, Polestar is my second favorite EV company as I love the styling of their vehicles. Polestar said Europe is absolutely the core and we see it works exceptionally well. We're just ramping up. It's all about Europe. Polestar has also reduced its emphasis on online direct to consumer sales in favor of a traditional dealer led model.
很多人都知道，极星是我第二喜欢的电动车公司，因为我很喜欢他们汽车的设计风格。极星表示欧洲绝对是核心市场，我们看到这在欧洲运作得非常好。我们正在加速发展，一切重心都在欧洲。极星还减少了对线上直销模式的重视，转向传统的经销商主导模式。
They've expanded their sales network by 50% outside China where it shut all 30 of its physical retail sites. So yes, Polestar is still raising money and losing money, but the sales data for 2025 was somewhat encouraging. Tesla's stock closed the day at $448.96 up 0.89% while the NDX was up 0.08%. The volume was 13% lower than the average.
他们在中国以外的地区扩大了50%的销售网络，同时关闭了在中国的全部30家实体零售店。所以，尽管Polestar仍在筹集资金和亏损，但2025年的销售数据显示出一定的鼓舞性。特斯拉的股票当日报收于448.96美元，上涨了0.89%，而纳斯达克100指数上涨了0.08%。成交量比平均水平低13%。
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