All-In's 2026 Predictions
发布时间 2026-01-10 04:50:22 来源
This is what we need. Let him go. Here we go. Jason in the corner warming up. Two shut the f*** up, Freeberg. It's my show. Three, two, all right everybody. Welcome back to the number one podcast in the world, The Podcast. I, Jason Calakana's named, created, and I'm the executive producer for life. With me, my three Miss Grant friends, Shamaaf Polyhapatia are Dictator. Love you, brother. Good seeing you. Love you. David Friedberg, our son-in-of-science, and yeah. This is our, yeah. Who's now made his way down to Austin? Welcome, brother. Let's go shooting. Let's get those beef ribs. David Sacks, how are you? How are you, how are you settling in to the great state of Texas? Everybody wants to know. I'm loving the 70-degree weather. Is it like this all year round? You know, this is a very wonderful time of year. You miss the two weeks where it goes to freezing temperatures.
这是我们需要的。让他走。开始吧。Jason 在角落里正在热身。"安静点，Freeberg。 这是我的节目。" 三，二，好了，大家。欢迎回到世界第一的播客节目，《The Podcast》。我是 Jason Calakana，命名、创建，并且终身担任执行制片人。我的身边是我三位亲爱的朋友，Shamaaf Polyhapatia，咱们的领袖。爱你，兄弟。很高兴见到你。还有我们的科学达人 David Friedberg，欢迎你来到奥斯汀！兄弟，咱们去打打猎吧，尝尝那里的牛肋排。David Sacks，你怎么样？在得克萨斯这个伟大州定居得如何？大家都很想知道。我很喜欢这70度的天气，一整年都是这样吗？你错过了会降到冰点温度的两周。
We have 10 days of freezing temperatures and then we have 80 days of 100-degree temperatures. But you'll be on a yacht or Italy or somewhere during that, like the rest of us. That's basically all you need to know about Austin. Just get out during the summers because it's brutal. That's it. Everything else is fan-frickened and fantastic. But in all seriousness, you're here. You're here. You've moved. You've domiciled in Texas. This is, this is, this is happened. It happened in December. Yes. And so we closed on a new house, moved in. Went to the DMV. I signed a lease for an Austin office for craft. It's done. It's done. It's done. Okay. I'll get you a dentist and whatever else you need. I got a doctor too. Okay. Does this mean I have to bring Moose back? This has been the big discussion in our house. Does this mean we lose Moose? No, he needs a significant acreage to run around. We know that. Oh, he does.
我们会经历10天的低温天气，然后迎来80天的高温天气，温度可达100华氏度。但就像我们其他人一样，此时你可能是在游艇上，或者在意大利等地方。这就是你需要知道的关于奥斯汀的一切了。夏天的时候一定要离开这里，因为这段时间太难熬了。除此之外，这里的一切都非常棒。但说正经的，你已经在这里安定下来了。你搬过来了，落户在德克萨斯。这真的已经发生了，就在12月。我们买了一所新房子并搬了进去，去了车辆管理局。我还签了一个奥斯汀办公室的租约。这些都办好了。好，我会帮你找个牙医和其他你需要的东西。我还找了个医生。好的。这意味着我必须把Moose带回来吗？这成了我们家里热议的话题。这是不是意味着我们会失去Moose？不，他需要大片土地来跑动，这我们都知道哦。
He does. But he misses you and I will definitely bring him in for a visit. And we'll be playing some backgammon, smoking some extra garbage. Yeah, you got to come by. Cannot wait. Cannot wait. You haven't come by yet. Jamal, what about you guys? You guys going to come down to a four besties? And that and I started the process in December. We are coming to check things out. We have not made any final decisions though. Okay. Shout out to our boy, Rokana, for driving everybody out of the state. So here's the funniest thing. Is we're all in the chat group discussing the California wealth tax. Whether people are going to leave or not. So Jamal, he's making a big show. I'm going to stay in fight. I'm not leaving my home. They can't drive me out. And then meanwhile, I got a call from my broker who says she's helping Jamal find a place. Oh, what's going on? Jamal, do you factor training? I'm shocked that Jamal tells you one thing that is doing another. Oh, my God. He's at least hedging his bets. He's hedging his bets. A lot of people are hedging their bets. A lot of people are hedging their bets.
他是这样的。 但他很想你，我一定会带他过来拜访。我们会一起玩西洋双陆棋，抽点烟。是的，你一定要过来，迫不及待等你的到来。你还没来过呢。贾马尔，你们呢？你们会下来四个好朋友聚会吗？我在十二月开始着手安排。我们会去看看情况，但还没有做最后决定。好的，向我们的朋友Rokana致敬，他让大家都离开了这个州。最搞笑的事情是，我们都在聊群里讨论加州的财富税，以及人们会不会离开。所以贾马尔在大张旗鼓地说：我要留下来抗争，我不会离开我的家园，他们无法把我赶走。与此同时，我却接到我经纪人的电话，她说她正在帮贾马尔找地方。哦，这是怎么回事？贾马尔，你在进行期货交易吗？我很惊讶贾马尔告诉你一套，实际做的是另一套。哦，天哪。他至少是在对冲风险。他在对冲风险。很多人都在对冲风险。
I mean, surgays and Florida. I'm sorry, Larry's got a beautiful place in Florida. I see, according to the news, a lot of people. And I saw Governor Abbott reached out to you. That's right. He welcomed me to Texas on X. A lot of people did. Michael Dell dead. Ted Cruz. Ted Cruz. And yeah, it was real welcome reception. It's funny. I never got anything like that when I was in California. Jason, I put it for some reason. The politicians were never. They weren't embracing you. They weren't embracing you. I don't know why. Who knows? I put this on X. But when you look at our friends that all explicitly left, it's about half a trillion of net worth, which I think is very bad for the long term budget of California. Then I can pick about 25 people just off the top of my head. And then if you think about all the people that will stay and fight, I still intend to stay and fight. But if we're forced to look down the barrel of an asset tax that has God knows what methodology.
我的意思是，谈到手术和佛罗里达。抱歉，拉里在佛罗里达有一个很漂亮的地方。据新闻报道，很多人都搬去了那里。我看到德州州长阿博特联系了你。是的，他在 X 上欢迎我去德州。还有其他很多人，比如迈克尔·戴尔，还有特德·克鲁兹。他们的欢迎真的让我感到很温暖。很有趣的是，当我在加州的时候，从来没有这样的待遇。很奇怪，加州的政客们似乎从来没有欢迎我。我不知道为什么。谁知道呢。我在 X 上发布了这些。但当你看看那些明确离开的人，总净资产大约达到了半万亿美元，这对加州的长期预算是很不利的。我能想到25个人左右。而对于那些决定留下并继续奋斗的人，我仍然打算留下来奋斗。但如果我们不得不面对一个资产税，谁知道会如何计算。
It's the only thing that's united everybody on the left and the right. Even Reid Hoffman thinks this is insane. I think a lot of other people will leave. It's probably half the total wealth that the budget estimated would be available to be taxed will be gone. Wow. I mean, these are, I don't understand. But it's huge implications to the social programs in the general budget of California. Listen, I think this is going to be a topic. This is a prediction. I think this is going to be a topic throughout the year because it's not going away. They're gathering signatures right now. I agree. And we're going to find out in, say, April, whether it's on the ballot. Now it's possible they don't gather the signatures, but they only need about 850,000 of them. If it gets on the ballot, again, we'll know in just a few months, there's going to be a huge freak out.
这是唯一一件让左右两派团结起来的事情。连里德·霍夫曼都认为这太疯狂了。我觉得很多其他人也会离开。预算中估计可以用来征税的总财富可能有一半会消失。哇，我是说，我不太明白。但这对加州的社会项目和整体预算有着巨大影响。听着，我认为这将成为一个话题。这是一个预测，我认为这会成为全年话题，因为它不会消失。他们现在正在收集签名。我同意。到了比如四月份，我们会发现它是否会上选票。现在也有可能他们收集不到签名，但他们只需要大约85万个签名。如果它上了选票，我们在几个月内就会知道，到时候将会引起一场大的恐慌。
And I think there'll be a lot of people who will say, I can't take the rest of them. They're going to leave the state. So I think there's going to be a rush for the exit. There's going to be all sorts of repercussions from that. Then there'll be an election in November, obviously. We'll find out if it passes or not. And then there'll be legal challenges. So this is going to be a saga. I don't think this is over by a long shot. And quite frankly, even if it's beaten in 2026, I think a lot of people expect that some version of this comes back in 2028, which is the thing that kind of pushed me over the edge in terms of leaving is I don't think this bomb is going away.
我认为会有很多人说自己无法忍受其他那些人，他们会选择离开这个州。因此，我认为会出现一种争相离开的情况，这将带来各种后果。然后，显然会在11月进行选举，我们将知道提案是否通过。接下来会有法律挑战，所以这将会是一个漫长的故事。我认为事情还远没有结束。坦率地说，即使在2026年被击败，我也认为很多人预期某种形式的方案会在2028年卷土重来。这也是让我决定离开的原因之一，因为我认为这个问题不会消失。
It's very difficult if you're an entrepreneur with a good idea to start building here, because if you get stuck in success with a bunch of illiquid stock and have no way to pay 5% of that value, you're going to bankrupt your own company. Just doesn't make any sense. And why does if your company goes to zero the next year, which can totally happen with private companies, you still owe the tax bill? Yeah, I don't know how that reverses itself. It's a terrible idea. I was talking to Rokana and Eric Swalwell, who we had on the program. And I told these guys, like these dopey Democrats, you have to stop fraud first before you start seeing people's assets or started discussion about raising taxes.
如果你是一位有好想法的企业家，在这里开始创业非常困难，因为如果你在成功后持有一堆无法变现的股票，却没有办法支付其价值的5%，那么你可能会导致自己的公司破产。这完全没有道理。如果你的公司在第二年破产了（在私营公司中这种情况完全有可能发生），你仍然要缴纳税款，我不知道这种情况该如何逆转。这是个糟糕的主意。我和罗·卡纳（Rokana）以及埃里克·斯沃威尔（Eric Swalwell）聊过，我们邀请他们参加了节目。我跟他们说，像这些糊涂的民主党人，你们应该在讨论加税或处置资产之前，先停止欺诈行为。
And we had Nick Shirley on last week who was doing his investigative journalism shout out to Shirley. And how do we sell to the American public that we want to seize their assets while and then sending it out the back door to fund fraud? That makes no sense. It's a leaky bucket. So fix the bucket first. And then let's have an honest discussion about what the right tax rate is. And why do this with the unique tax? Why don't just put a point onto capital gains or income tax and have that discussion? That's a great point. You could also do what Bill Akman suggested, which is stop allowing these margin loads. There's a lot that actually live off of margin.
上周我们有尼克·雪莉参加节目，他在进行调查性新闻报道，给雪莉点赞。我们如何向美国公众解释，我们想要扣押他们的资产，同时却又将其偷偷送出用于资助欺诈行为？这完全没有道理，就像一个漏水的水桶。所以，我们首先应该修补这个水桶，然后再诚实地讨论合理税率应该是多少。为什么要用一种独特的税来做这个呢？为什么不直接在资本利得税或所得税上加个百分点，然后进行讨论？这真是个好观点。你也可以采取比尔·阿克曼的建议，那就是停止允许这些保证金贷款。实际上，有许多人依赖保证金生活。
Is it a good idea? Yes, and no, depending on the asset base you have. And if the tax laws change, we would all change the approach. You mentioned that Larian Sergei have left the state and they're probably getting dragged for that. But one of the reasons why I think they kind of have to is because the super voting stock provision in this thing, where the way they calculate the value of your stock is not based on its liquid market value. But if you own super voting shares, they multiply your ownership. Your super voting by the market cap of the company. And they deem your shares to be worth that. Yeah. So for example, Larian Sergei, I think they combined have voting power of about 52% of Google.
翻译： 这是个好主意吗？这要取决于你的资产基础，所以答案是既是也不是。而且如果税法发生变化，我们都会调整策略。你提到Larian和Sergei已经离开了这个州，可能会因此受到批评。但我认为他们有些不得不这么做的原因之一是，因为这一方案中的超级投票股票条款。这里计算你股票的价值不是基于其流动市场价值。如果你拥有超级投票权股份，他们会将你的持股乘以公司的市值，认为你的股票价值就是这样计算的。例如，据我所知，Larian和Sergei加起来大概拥有谷歌约52%的投票权。
So what's Google worth these days about? Four trillion. Two and a half trillion. Okay. So now I think, I mean, they're very wealthy guys. I think they're each worth whatever 100 billion ish or whatever it is. Two hundred and a half. Two hundred. But now their net worth will be deemed to be, I guess each one of them would be deemed to be roughly one trillion each, not the call of 200 billion. So the 5% tax for them is more like a 25% tax of all their net worth. So it becomes, it becomes 50 because you'd have to sell more than that to overcome the drag of selling to generate 25 billion or 50 billion of net worth. You have to sell two X that because you have to pay taxes on them.
这些天谷歌的价值是多少呢？大约四万亿美元。两万五千亿美元。好吧。我认为，他们都是非常富有的人。我想他们每个人的身价大约是1000亿美元左右，不管确切是多少。两千五百亿美元。两千亿美元。但现在，他们的净资产可能会被认为是每人接近一万亿美元，而不是2000亿美元的规模。因此，对他们而言，5%的税几乎相当于对他们所有净资产征收了25%的税。因此，这个税负变成了50，因为为了克服出售产生250亿或500亿美元净资产的拖累，你必须卖出两倍的金额，因为你还要为此缴税。
Right. So now what is the point of having that super voting provision in there? It's just totally punitive and vicious. All right. So let's just go with a quick prediction here. I'm going to call an audible. We're going to get into the prediction show folks. We've been delaying this prediction show because the world is moving at an incredible pace and the news is just, let's just call it what it is. It's just intense. We have a lot of stories you all want us to cover. We will cover them. But we're going to start with our prediction show. Just lightning round prediction here. Does this seizure tax, I'm going to call it what it is. It's a seizure tax. They're seizing assets. Does the seizing assets tax go into effect or not? Does it pass or not? Freeberg your first. Yes or no? Give us a percentage polymarket it. Well, does it get on the ballot first and then does it? Well, we know it's going to get on the ballot. I think we agree with that. I do not know. That's not correct. Oh, we don't know. Sure.
好的。那么，添加超级投票条款的意义是什么呢？这只是单纯的惩罚性和恶意。好吧，让我们快点做个预测。我决定临时更改计划。我们将进入预测环节。我们一直在推迟这个预测节目，因为世界变化太快，新闻也十分密集。我们有很多故事要与大家分享，我们会逐一报道。但现在我们要从预测节目开始。闪电预测环节到了。这个征收税，我就直说了，这是掠夺税。他们正在掠夺资产。这个资产征税会生效吗？会通过吗？Freeberg，你第一个。是还是不是？帮我们做个概率预测。首先，它能上投票表决吗？然后呢？我们都知道它会进入投票程序，我认为我们对此是一致的。我不知道，这不正确。哦，我们并不确定。好的。
So then I'll make it a two-part. Fine. Does it get on the ballot? Does it pass? Timoff, you seem ready to go. No, freeberg. Go ahead. I don't think it's going to get on the ballot. Oh, I agree with that. In California. 100%. All right. We marked everybody shout out to Shane. Oh, this is to make the ballot. My guy, Sean, Nick's fan. This is to make the ballot. This is the question. Will the billionaires to Austin tax, wealth tax, drive people? Will it make it onto the California ballot? Lightly traded. Currently at 16.9%. Does he see how much lower it was? That spike happened after Rokana elevated the issue. So when it became a cause to lab among progressives and Bernie Sanders weighed in, it spiked up from what was it like, 45% to 80%. OK.
好的，那我把它分成两部分。好的。会上选票吗？会通过吗？Timoff，你好像准备好了。不是，freeberg。请继续。我认为这不会上选票。哦，我同意这一点。在加州。完全同意。好的。我们标记了每个人，向Shane致敬。哦，这是为了让它上选票。我的朋友，Sean，尼克斯球迷。这是为了让它上选票。这就是问题。亿万富翁的奥斯汀税、财富税是否会激励人们？它会进入加州选票吗？交易清淡。目前只有16.9%的可能。你看到它以前有多低了吗？那次激增发生在Rokana提升了这个问题之后。所以当这个问题成为进步派和伯尼·桑德斯关注的原因后，它从大约45%激增到了80%。好的。
So when Rokana committed political subpooku, it drove up. Maybe he had a bet. Maybe he placed a bet. I don't think it's political suicide for him. There's only two ways it doesn't get on the ballot, right? One is if the SCIU-UHW, which is the UUAN that supported this, proposed it, doesn't have the money to pay to collect the signatures. But you would think that they would, right? 8 million or so is roughly what it costs to gather the signatures for these types of things. Clearly they can find 850,000 people in California who support it if they're willing to put in the effort. The other possibility is that the powers that be, let's call it Gavin Newsom and the machine, are able to negotiate with this union to get them to stand down.
所以，当Rokana犯下政治错误时，局势却因此有所上升。也许他打了个赌，也许他真的下注了。我不认为这对他来说是政治自杀。要让这件事不上投票箱，其实只有两种可能。第一种可能是，如果支持这个提案的工会，即SEIU-UHW，也就是UUAN，没有足够的资金去支付收集签名的费用。但是你应该会认为他们应该有这个能力吧？收集这种提案签名大约需要800万美元。所以如果他们愿意努力的话，显然可以在加州找到85万支持者。另一种可能性是有权势的人物，我们可以称之为Gavin Newsom和他的机器，能够与这个工会谈判，迫使他们撤回提案。
And I don't have any insight into that because that's obviously Democrat politics, not Republican politics. A free-bring in Shemaah might have some information. I mean, you have some insight, I don't know. We're going to leave it at that. But if it does get on the ballot, what do you think the odds are that it passes? I think it's going to be a really important 40% moment for people to vote, the ability to be industrious and have agency. Or what did Mamdani say? It's rugged individualism versus collectivism. Collectivism. Also known as communism. As in collect, we collect your assets. He said that we're going to replace the fragility of rugged individualism with the warmth of collectivism.
这段话的大意是：我对此没有什么见解，因为这显然是民主党的政治问题，而不是共和党的政治问题。Shemaah可能会有一些信息。我不知道你是否有一些见解，我们暂且搁置。如果这个议案能进入投票阶段，你认为它通过的几率有多大？我觉得这将是一个很重要的时刻，40%的人会投票，关注个人的勤奋和自主能力。或者像Mamdani所说的，这是坚韧的个人主义与集体主义的对抗。集体主义也被称为共产主义，意思是我们收集你的资产。他说，我们将用集体主义的温暖来取代坚韧的个人主义的脆弱。
I mean, at least he's saying it out loud. I like this news. I like these new politicians just telling you straight up what we're doing. Well, his new housing commissioner, have you seen this? Yeah, the white lady is like white people must suffer. And then she's like, she had these things where she's like, I see white babies in the airport and it makes me mad. And I'm like, really? This is crazy. What man broke up with this lady? Because that dude has created a monster. And she says something like we need to introduce a new relationship between white people and property, the property rights or something. Yeah, exactly. I mean, they're saying it out loud now. And then I guess she had a mental breakdown and started crying when they came to see her.
我想说，至少他把这些话说出来了。我喜欢这样的新闻。我喜欢这些新政客直接告诉我们他们在做什么。你听说过他的新住房专员吗？是啊，这位白人女士说白人必须受苦。然后她还说看到机场的白人婴儿会让她生气。我觉得，这实在是太疯狂了。究竟是哪个男人跟这位女士分手了？因为那个人简直是制造了一个怪物。她还说过，我们需要在白人和财产权之间引入一种新的关系之类的话。是的，确实是这样。我是说，他们现在都是公开说出来了。我听说，当有人去找她时，她还崩溃哭了。
No, no, no, no. One of them is they pointed out that her parents own a multi-million dollar home and then she broke down into tears. Oh, her mom's a white supremacist. I didn't realize her mom was a white supremacist. That explains all. This is all about her mom. I feel bad for her parents. Oh God. Can you imagine what your kids go and does this? We have to go collect your houses.
不，不，不，不。他们指出她的父母拥有一栋价值数百万美元的房子，然后她就哭了。哦，她妈妈是个白人至上主义者。我之前不知道她妈妈是白人至上主义者。原来如此，这一切都是因为她妈妈。我为她的父母感到难过。哦天哪，你能想象你的孩子做出这样的事吗？我们得去把他们的房子收走。
I mean, listen, let's do it. Let's do it. Everybody wants to hear our predictions for 2026. We've been pushing it off. We're going to give it to you right now. We always like to start since we got into politics here on the program at some point. The biggest political winner, last year's prediction for biggest political winner for 2025 to remind everybody. Frebarg said young candidates, well done. Gavin, who was on the show sitting in four sacks who was busy joining the administration. He said Trump and centrism would be the biggest political winner. Shemop, you said fiscal conservatives who asked for restrained spending. It was a good thought. And I said Gen X and elder millennials, the JD Vance, Tulsi, sacks group.
我的意思是，听着，我们就这么做吧。大家都想听我们对2026年的预测，我们一直拖着，现在就告诉你们。我们一直以来在节目中谈政治，所以我们会先从政治开始。最大政治赢家方面，去年我们对2025年的预测是这样的：Frebarg说年轻候选人，回答得不错。Gavin在节目上坐在四个袋子上，他忙于加入政府，他说川普和中庸主义会是最大的政治赢家。Shemop，你说是要求节制开支的财政保守派，这个想法不错。而我说是X世代和较老的千禧一代，例如JD Vance，Tulsi，sacks这群人。
So let's go around the corner here. I wonder, Frebarg, who you think will be the biggest political winner of 2026. Frebarg your chance. Democratic Socialist of America, the DSA, just like the Maga movement took over the Republican party. I think the DSA is taking over the Democrat party. And I think that's the move we'll see solidified in 2026. Okay. Tite is right. Well done. Shemop, who do you got for biggest political winner, 2026? Whoever is going to fight waste rotten abuse at the federal state and local level. Got it. So it's an open lane to anybody. It's an open lane. It's a political gambit that I think will work really well in 26. Very nicely done.
那么，我们往前走吧。我想知道，Frebarg，你认为谁会是2026年最大的政治赢家？Frebarg，现在是你发表看法的机会。像Maga运动接管共和党一样，美国民主社会主义者（DSA）正在接管民主党。我认为到2026年，这一趋势将会巩固。好的，Tite的观点正确。做得好。Shemop，你认为2026年最大的政治赢家会是谁？我认为会是那些在联邦、州和地方层面上努力反对浪费、腐败和滥用的人。明白了，所以这是一个对任何人都开放的机会。这是一个我认为在2026年会非常成功的政治策略。非常好。
David sacks. Gosh, I can't imagine who you would pick. That's a political winner in 2026. Well, I'm going to say that the Trump boom is going to be the biggest political winner of 2026. The good economic news is start breaking out before 2025 was even over. We have 2.7% inflation. Core CPI, 2.6. Both those are 40 base points below expectations. 4.3% GDP growth in Q3. Lois trade deficits since 2009. The challenger, Greer Report out today, show that job cuts dropped 50% from November, which was itself down about 50% from October.
大卫·萨克斯。天哪，我无法想象你会选谁。这将是2026年的政治赢家。好吧，我要说特朗普的经济繁荣将是2026年最大的政治赢家。好消息是经济在2025年结束前就开始显露出复苏迹象。我们的通货膨胀率为2.7%，核心消费者物价指数为2.6%，两者都比预期低40个基点。第三季度的GDP增长为4.3%，这是自2009年以来最低的贸易逆差。今天公布的Greer报告显示，裁员数从11月起减少了50%，而11月的数字也比10月减少了约50%。
Give us a number for the boom. What is it going to be? Hold on. The S&P 500 keeps making record highs. People are paying less for gas. Mortgage costs have fallen by $3,000. Real wages are up over $1,000. And by June, I predict we will see more rate cuts, possibly $7,500. We have a number of basic points. And big tax refunds are coming in April thanks to a bigger standard deduction and no tax on tips over time and Social Security. So I think there is so much good economic news coming and it's already started. And I think that it's going to have a huge impact on the economy but also on political perceptions for next year.
给我们一个繁荣的数字。那会是多少呢？等等。标准普尔500指数不断创下历史新高。人们的汽油支出减少了。抵押贷款成本下降了3000美元。实际工资增加了超过1000美元。我预测到六月，我们将看到更多的降息，可能会达到7500美元。我们有几个基本点。并且由于更大的标准扣除额和对长期小费以及社会保障免税，四月份会有大量的税务退款。因此，我认为有很多好的经济消息即将到来，而且这已经开始了。我认为这将对经济产生巨大影响，也将对明年的政治观念产生影响。
Pick your GDP for this boom year. 3, 4, 5 or 6 points. Sax, I'm pitting you. Pick a way. 3, 4 or 5. If you make it a prediction, then I'd like to pick as well. OK, I'm going to go sax first. I'm going to go for 5%. Oh, within a rounding year, I believe 5%. Sure, sure, sure. Plus or minus. Chimathi, you want to pick a number? You said you did. I think the lower bound is 5. I think the upper bound is 6. Wow. Incredible.
选择你认为在经济繁荣年中的GDP增幅：3%、4%、5%还是6%。Sax，我在叫你。选择一个增长率，3%、4%还是5%。如果你也要预测的话，我也想选一个。好的，我先选择Sax。我选5%。哦，我相信这一年四舍五入后是5%。当然，允许有浮动。Chimathi，你要选一个数字吗？你之前说过。我的看法是增幅的下限是5%，上限是6%。哇，太不可思议了。
Well, just to put that in perspective, if we print 6, the only country in the modern world that we think of as a quasi-peer competitor that is printed 6 is the Chinese in a period where it had complete and total coordination and domination of a federal, state and local economy. And the fact that we can do it under democracy and capitalism is outrageous. Freeberg, do you want to take a stab at that? 2026 growth? Yeah. 4.6%. OK, I was going to go between 4 and 5 as well.
好的，为了让大家更好地理解，如果我们将增长率定为6%，在现代世界中，唯一一个被我们认为是准对手竞争者并且达到了6%的国家是中国。而中国是在完全协调并主导其联邦、州和地方经济的情况下实现的。而我们在民主和资本主义制度下也能做到这一点，实在是令人惊讶。Freeberg，你想谈谈2026年的增长吗？好的，4.6%。我本来也打算预测在4%到5%之间。
In terms of my prediction for the big political winner, I went back and forth between the emperor as apprentice, Darth Vance, JD Vance, or the mandami moment. I said Darth Vance for a couple of reasons. He is out there defending Trump and he's surging on polymarket, ending the polls. He's obviously the co-pilot of MAG. He's done a great job of being second seat. He is not usurping President Trump, which would be a big political mistake. He's really navigating being the co-pilot there. But he is the most popular politician clearly at Turning Point, USA. And he is the OG in the America first America only moment.
在预测政治大赢家时，我反复考虑了几位候选人，包括像学徒一样的皇帝、Darth Vance、JD Vance 或“Mandami 时刻”。我选择Darth Vance，有几个原因。他公开为特朗普辩护，并在Polymarket上人气飙升，结束了民调。他显然是MAG的副驾驶员，出色地担任了第二把交椅的角色。他并没有取代特朗普总统的位置，因为这样做在政治上将是一个重大错误。他在担任副驾驶的角色上表现得非常出色。此外，他显然是Turning Point USA 中最受欢迎的政治人物，也是“美国优先、美国唯一”运动的OG（原创玩家）。
But I'm going to give the edge to the mandami moment. He's 34 years old. He's got row con at 49 pivoting into a socialist. And I think that's because Democrats believe the easiest way to win in 2026 is to go full socialist. And Trump has, I think, given this lane because he's forgotten about the working man and woman in America. Net disapproval for Trump on the economy, 58% inflation. Despite what SACs is saying there, it's still closer to 3% than 2%. And Trump just announced he wants to increase the military budget by 50% while people are still complaining about their health care. And Trump has turned into a complete Neocon bombing seven countries this year and threatening to take over Colombia and Greenland who knows if that's Trump being Trump or if that's reality. But Trump becoming a Neocon was not on anyone's bingo card.
但我还是倾向于看好Mandami的时刻。他今年34岁。他在49岁时从一个右翼分子转向社会主义者。我认为这是因为民主党人认为在2026年获胜最简单的方法就是彻底走向社会主义。同时，我认为特朗普给了他们这一机会，因为他忽视了美国的工薪阶层。特朗普在经济上的净不支持率达到58%，通货膨胀率尽管SACs说的情况，但仍更接近3%而不是2%。而特朗普刚宣布想把军费增加50%，但人们还在抱怨医疗保健问题。今年特朗普彻底变成了一个新保守主义者，轰炸了七个国家，并威胁要接管哥伦比亚和格陵兰。这不知道是特朗普本性使然还是现实如此。但特朗普变成新保守主义者是没人预料到的。
And I think Trump may have incited and given a bunch of fuel to the mandami moment by not addressing the American people's needs and going for the international interventionism. Okay. Now, there's like three different answers right there. My answer is clearly my dummy. My second place though. I like to always explain my thinking is Darth Vance, JD Vance, biggest political loser. Last year's predictions. I said Putin. Gavin said Putin. Chimoff, you said progressiveism. And Freiber, you said the pro-war Neocons would be the biggest political losers. Let's get into who we think will be the loser this year.
我认为特朗普可能通过不关注美国人民的需求而投身于国际干预，激化并助长了mandami时刻。好吧，这里有三个不同的观点。显然，我的答案是my dummy（有些自嘲的意思）。至于第二选择，我总是喜欢解释我的想法，那就是Darth Vance，JD Vance，去年的最大政治失败者。去年预测中，我说是普京，Gavin也说是普京，Chimoff认为是进步主义，而Freiber认为是支持战争的新保守派。让我们来讨论一下，谁会是今年的失败者。
SACs, why don't you start? Who's your big political loser in 2026, you think? Well, I said democratic centrist or democratic centrist, which is sort of the flip side of you guys saying that socialism or progressives are winners. And there's two reasons for this. One is because the socialist ideology is sort of ascended among the democratic base, especially the young people who support Mamm Donney, things like that. Unfortunately, our universities are welcome. Addresses have done a terrible job educating these students and they've brainwashed a lot of them into this woke ideology.
SACs，你们为什么不先开始呢？你认为2026年最大的政治失败者是谁？嗯，我说是民主党中的中间派，或者可以称为民主党中间派，这和你们所说的社会主义者或进步派是赢家正好相反。这里有两个原因。首先，因为社会主义意识形态在民主党的基本盘中，特别是在支持Mamm Donney的年轻人中更受欢迎。不幸的是，我们的大学在入学讲话中并没有做好教育这些学生的工作，反而把他们洗脑成认同这些觉醒的意识形态。
But also there's the fact that there's so few house districts anymore that are truly competitive. So both the Cook political report and Larry Sabato's crystal ball, they say that there's fewer than two dozen house races that are genuinely competitive going into 2026. That's because of gerrymandering and so on. So if you're a democrat incumbent who is in one of these districts, like all but a couple dozen of them, your only real threat to losing your office is from the left, right? It's some young AOC type coming up to challenge you. And so you don't want to expose your left flank. So even the democratic moderates have been shifting further and further to the left.
此外，现在真正具有竞争性的众议院选区已经非常少了。根据库克政治报告和拉里·萨巴托的水晶球的分析，他们表示，到2026年，真正竞争激烈的众议院竞选不到24场。这是因为选区划分不公等等原因。因此，如果你是这些选区中的民主党现任议员，像其他大多数选区一样，失去席位的唯一真正威胁来自左翼，即一些像AOC（亚历山大·奥卡西奥·科尔特斯）这样的年轻人对此发起挑战。所以你不想暴露你的左翼弱点，因此即便是民主党的温和派也在不断向左倾斜。
And so you see this AOC, Mamm Donney effect happening there. So I'm kind of in the same camp as you guys as this is not a good trend, but I put this as biggest political loser, biggest political loser, democratic centrizin. Got it. Trimoff, where do you go? Can I just go back and just nitpick with you a little bit? Why do you think progressivism didn't fail? And the only reason I ask you that is outside of a few pockets of progressivism and specifically Mamm Donney. If you look at the elections in Virginia or the elections in New Jersey, those are more centrist than progressive.
你可以看到在这里发生的AOC（亚历山大·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯）和Mamm Donney效应。所以我和你们的看法差不多，认为这不是一个好的趋势，我把这个称为“最大的政治失败者，最大的政治失败者，民主党中间派化”。明白了。Trimoff，你怎么看？我能稍微反驳你一下吗？你为什么认为进步主义没有失败？我之所以问，是因为除了少数几个进步主义的区域，尤其是Mamm Donney之外，如果你看看弗吉尼亚或新泽西的选举，那些更偏中间派而不是进步派。
And if you look at the general approval rates of Democrats, they trended consistently down through 2025 as they handwronged themselves about leaving centrism and embracing progressivism. So the more talking points around progressivism that emerged, the poorer they perform. So I know your perception or some people's perceptions may be different based on one localized win. But if you look at the broad trend, it didn't work. I just put that out there just as the facts and not the vibes. Well, I don't want it to be true. Just to be clear, I wouldn't. I'm picking. I love for that Democratic party to be a sectorist. I don't want it to be true either, but it does.
如果你看看民主党的整体支持率，从2025年开始就一直在下降，因为他们在是否放弃中间立场、拥抱进步主义的问题上犹豫不决。随着越来越多的进步主义观点出现，他们的表现反而越来越差。我知道，基于某些局部的胜利，你或其他人的感受可能会有所不同。但从总体趋势来看，这并不奏效。我只是想把这些事实摆在那里，而不是依据感觉。当然，我并不希望这是事实。我要说明的是，我更希望民主党能更加务实。我也不希望这是真的，但事实就是如此。
No, but you just, just like it was wrong and I wasn't wrong. So it might be a jump ball. It might be the best way to describe it because you have to bond on the facts. Right. And okay, just look at the numerical numbers. The trend were horrible. Like meaning wherever the Democrats started, the more progressive talking points they added, the poor and poor, they performed. The approval ratings went down. The disapproval ratings went up. I'm not saying that they didn't win a mayoral race. They did do that. I'm just saying broadly speaking nationwide is the Democratic party and its embrace of progressivism.
不，我的意思是，就像是觉得有问题，但我并没有错。所以这可能像是一场拉锯战，因为你需要根据事实来判断。看一下具体的数据，趋势很糟糕。也就是说，民主党越是倾向于进步主义立场，他们的表现就越差。支持率下降，反对率上升。我并不是说他们没有赢得市长选举，他们确实赢了。我只是从整体上来说，全国范围内，民主党和他们对进步主义的支持存在问题。
At least at the federal level has it paid off over 2025 and I would say categorically mathematically not. Okay. Now going to 2026. What is my biggest political loser? What I would say is the biggest loser of 26 is the Monroe doctrine. I think that when historians look back on the Trump presidency, they're going to rewrite it. I think people have tried to minimize Trump's worldview as a Trump corollary. I don't think that's what this is. They even tried to minimize it by calling it the Don Roe doctrine. I don't think that's what this is. I think that there is a clear Trump doctrine that Trump, the Monroe doctrine.
至少在联邦层面来看，到2025年是否能见成效，我会明确地说，从数学上讲，不会。好的，那么展望2026年，我认为最大的政治失败者是谁呢？我觉得2026年最大的失败者是门罗主义。我认为当历史学家回顾特朗普的总统生涯时，他们会重新解读它。我认为一些人试图将特朗普的世界观简单化为"特朗普推论"。我不这样认为。他们甚至试图通过称其为"唐·罗主义"来淡化它。我认为事情并非如此。我认为这里有一个明确的"特朗普主义"，特朗普，与门罗主义有关。
And I think that is the political loser because there is a huge body politic that has been built around the Monroe doctrine. How do we view wars? How do we view our spheres of influence? How do we view economic multilateralism versus unilateralism? All of that is out the window. We view this as hemispheric dominance. That's Trump. We view it as proactive and in very specific cases interventionist. We intervene against drug cartels. We control immigration. We secure vital assets. That was not really the scope of the Monroe doctrine.
我认为这是一个政治上的失败，因为围绕门罗主义已经建立起了庞大的政治体系。我们如何看待战争？我们如何看待我们的势力范围？我们如何看待经济上的多边主义与单边主义？这些都被抛到了脑后。我们把这视为半球主导地位。这就是特朗普的观点。我们认为这是一种积极主动的态度，并在特定情况下进行干预：我们打击贩毒集团，控制移民，确保重要资产安全。这已经超出了门罗主义的范围。
We have more transactional relationships, quite honestly, which allows us to react in the moment. So I think the Monroe doctrine is the biggest loser of 2026. Freeberg, your biggest loser, 2026. My biggest political loser of 2026 is the tech industry. I think AI and tech wealth have become the lightning rod for populism on both sides of the aisle. I think the right is fracturing a bit where this call it alliance between tech and maga seems to be getting a really strong challenge from the more populist movement. In the same sense, the left is turning hard on tech because of tech's alignment with the right.
我们更倾向于建立事务性的关系，这让我们能够及时做出反应。所以，我认为门罗主义是2026年最大的失败者。Freeberg，你认为2026年最大的失败者是谁？我认为2026年在政治上最大的失败者是科技行业。我认为人工智能和科技财富已经成为两党民粹主义的焦点。我觉得右翼正在出现分裂，这种科技与MAGA的联盟正在受到更强烈的民粹主义挑战。同时，由于科技与右派的关系，左派也在对科技进行猛烈批判。
And so I think we're going to see in the midterms a really big referendum against the tech industry coming out of good populist movement. That's a great one. Can I tell you guys a little story from yesterday? I had a meeting with three very senior sitting senators before I flew back to California. These are Republican senators. And Freeberg, I was surprised exactly what you said. There is a couple of companies that have exacerbated their frustration. They view those companies. These are techs and the tech leaders of these companies has just not trustworthy.
因此，我认为在中期选举中，我们将看到一场针对科技行业的大型全民公投，这源于良好的民粹主义运动。这是个很好的现象。能跟你们分享一个昨天的小故事吗？在我飞回加州之前，我和三位经验丰富的共和党参议员开了个会。Freeberg，你说得很对，我也感到很惊讶。有几家公司让他们的挫败感加剧了，他们认为这些公司和公司的科技领导者都不值得信任。
And they've largely been grin-fucking these guys for a long time. And they're pretty frustrated with it. So to your point, it is palpable. Look, I can tell you that the natural ally for tech is with maga because we still believe in property rights and innovation. And if the Democratic Party is truly going progressive, which means socialists, they want to rewrite your relationship to property rights, whatever that means, and impose wealth taxes and realize gains taxes and all the rest of it.
他们长时间以来都对这些人虚与委蛇，而这些人对此感到非常沮丧。你说得对，这种情绪是显而易见的。可以这么说，科技界的自然盟友其实是MAGA（“让美国再次伟大”运动），因为我们仍然相信产权和创新。而如果民主党真的要走向进步主义，这意味着走向社会主义，他们就会想要重写你与产权的关系，不管这意味着什么，并且强加财富税和已实现收益税等所有其他税收。
So look, I don't think tech has that much of a choice as Arnold Schwarzenegger said in one of those movies. Come with me if you want to live. Come with me if you want to live. Yes. Get in the chopper. But let me say this, the reason why there's anger on the populist right is because they remember the censorship and the de-platforming and the shadow banning and all that kind of stuff. And what there needs to be is, I think there just needs to be some meetings of truth and reconciliation that happens between some of these tech leaders and some of these conservative influencers.
所以，听我说，就像阿诺德·施瓦辛格在其中一部电影中说的那样，我觉得科技公司没什么选择：“如果你想活命，就跟我来。”是的，上直升机。不过，我想说的是，民粹主义右翼之所以愤怒，是因为他们记得那些封锁言论、取消平台账号和隐藏流量的事情。我认为，有必要在一些科技领袖和保守派影响者之间进行一些真相与和解的会议。
Guess what, David, I know one guy who can help make that happen. I would like to host some of these meetings in 2026 and get these fields together because I think that the tech companies have either realized their mistake or they were pushed into it in a lot of cases by the Biden administration. They've gone to their head. They've gone to their head. Now, I also think that one other mistake they've made is quite frankly, they've been donors to only left-wing causes.
猜猜看，大卫，我认识一个可以帮助实现这个计划的人。我希望在2026年举办一些这样的会议，把这些领域的人才聚集在一起。因为我觉得那些科技公司要么已经意识到自己的错误，要么在很多情况下是被拜登政府推动去做的。他们有点自满了。另外，我也认为他们犯的另一个错误就是，他们只向左翼事业捐款。
As you know, if you listen to Surnovitch's account, he's like, look guys, you banned us. You cost us our livelihood for years. Debanked us. Debanked us. Where's the restitution? At least, at least, giving some support to our conservative cultural policy. You knew that on the head, the senators that I talked to, that's exactly what they wanted. They just wanted an apology. Just be honest and say you did it. This asset seizure tax proposal in California and the conversation about other states, I think is bringing a lot of people to that table, sex, at least the tech people to say, wait a second, maybe I shouldn't have been only left donating over all these years.
如你所知，依据Surnovitch的说法，他觉得：“大家，你们封禁了我们，这些年剥夺了我们的生计，甚至关闭了我们的银行账户。关闭了我们的银行账户。我们应该得到赔偿。至少要对我们的保守文化政策给予一些支持。你们很清楚，我和一些参议员交谈过，这正是他们想要的，他们只是希望得到一个道歉。坦诚地承认你们确实做了这些。”
加州的资产征收税提案以及关于其他州的讨论，让很多人开始反思，尤其是科技界人士，他们也许会想：“等一下，过去这些年我是不是不该只向左翼捐款？”
Maybe I shouldn't have done this. I think contrary to what people may think, it may actually be doing a lot more positive for the right side than the left by putting this forward. This may actually be catalyzing a big change in Silicon Valley. Yeah, and if you think about it, if you were Zuckerberg or you were, you know, the Google executives and the FBI is telling you, hey, we need you to take care of these censorship issues, we need you to label these things, et cetera. You know, it puts you in a pretty tough situation if the FBI is calling you, if you're trying to do M&A and then, you know, look now. M&A, under Trump, is on fire. We'll talk about that more in our prediction show.
也许我不应该这样做。我认为，跟人们可能认为的相反，这可能实际上对右派有更多正面的影响，而不是左派。这可能正在促使硅谷发生重大变化。是的，如果你想一想，如果你是扎克伯格，或者谷歌的高管，而联邦调查局告诉你，他们需要你处理这些审查问题，需要你给这些事情贴标签等等，这会让你处于一个比较困难的境地。特别是在你正在进行并购交易时，而联邦调查局又来找你。看看现在，在特朗普的领导下，并购市场非常活跃。在我们的预测节目中，我们会详细讨论这个话题。
For me, I was going back and forth in my biggest political loser with these dopey Democrats who are centrist and the new Neocontrump. Now I don't know if Trump will continue these Neocont ways. So I'm going to just align with SACs here that the centrist Democrats are going to be this year's biggest political loser. All right. Well, losers. Now that you've mentioned twice that Trump is a Neocont, I have to respond to this. No, you don't, you don't have to, but go ahead.
对我来说，在评选今年最大的政治失败者时，我一直在犹豫不决，是这些愚蠢的中间派民主党人，还是新的“新保守派特朗普”。我现在还不知道特朗普是否会继续走新保守派的路。所以我决定支持SAC的观点，认为中间派民主党人将会是今年最大的政治失败者。好的，失败者。既然你已经两次提到特朗普是新保守派，我得回应一下。不过你不一定要回应，但如果想的话就说吧。
Okay. Look, the problem with Neocont regime change operations was, I'd say threefold. Number one, the invasion. You have this giant invasion, land armies, huge numbers of people getting killed, took, you know, months or a year. Took them like a year to get to Saddam, right? Number two, you then have an occupation because whoever you then put in power only stays in power if you have American GI's there pointing the guns. So you end up with a 10 or 20 year occupation. And then third, you have nation building, which is you end up spending trillions of dollars basically trying to turn them into us so that our troops can leave. That was the mistake of Afghanistan and Iraq.
好的。看，关于新保守主义的政权更迭行动的问题，我认为有三点。首先是入侵。大规模入侵，陆军参与，导致大量人员伤亡，整个过程持续了好几个月甚至一年。比如，要抓住萨达姆花了大约一年时间。第二，接着是占领。因为无论你让谁上台，只有在有美军驻扎、枪口对着的情况下，他们才能保持权力。因此，占领可能持续10到20年。第三，国家建设。你得花数万亿美元试图把他们变成像我们一样的国家，以便我们的部队能撤离。这就是阿富汗和伊拉克的问题所在。
But look, what has Trump done that is like any of those things. It's been no invasion, no occupation and no nation building. This war, I guess, with Venezuela, if you want to call it that, it was a flawless operation at last three hours. I mean, I woke up and it was like, you know, the meme where it's like wake up, honey, it's like wake up, honey, Trump's won another war. It was over before it even started. They went in there and they basically captured Maduro. No Americans were killed. It was an absolute flawless operation. And they are bringing him to justice.
看看，特朗普做了什么类似的事情？他没有进行入侵、占领或者建立新国家。关于这场与委内瑞拉的“战争”，如果你愿意这么称呼的话，它只持续了三个小时，是一个完美无瑕的行动。我的意思是，我醒来的时候，就像那个网络段子，“醒醒，亲爱的”，好像醒来就听说特朗普又赢得了一场战争。这场行动在它真正开始之前就已经结束了。他们进去后基本上就抓住了马杜罗，没有任何美国人伤亡。这是一次绝对完美的行动，他们正在把他绳之以法。
By the way, he begged for it. He's on tape talking a lot of smack at Rally saying, come get me, you know, calling the Americans chicken and so on. So in any event, he was begging for it. We can go into a lot more of the reasons for doing it and defending it. But I just don't think this is a new con policy. And in fact, it's the Democrats who've been calling to put in this Nobel Prize winner that you interviewed Freeberg, right? What's her name? Maria Conchito Alonso. Machado.
顺便提一下，他是自找的。他在集会上被录下来，说了很多大话，比如让人来找他，称美国人为胆小鬼等等。所以无论如何，他是在自找麻烦。我们可以深入探讨更多这样做及其辩护的理由。但我不认为这是一个新的保守派政策。事实上，是民主党一直在呼吁让这个诺贝尔奖得主上任的，你采访的Freeberg，对吗？她叫什么名字来着？玛丽亚·康契托·阿隆索。马查多。
Okay. Anyway, oh, I think it's Hector Alonso. I think he did somebody from the Brad pack. No, she was in running man, I think. Anyway, but, but they're talking about the Cuban Venezuela actress. I thought her name was Maria Conchito Alonso. Okay. Maria, Karina Machado. Sorry. That's just what I thought. I mean, this world, this world then as well in 1975 winner, Maria. Look, the Democrats are criticizing the administration for not putting her in power. But look, here's the problem. Nobel prizes don't keep people in power, men with guns keep people in power. And she doesn't have the men with guns.
好的。总之，哦，我觉得是赫克托·阿隆索。我想他和布莱德帮的某个人有关系。不，她是在《奔跑者》里演过。我想他们在谈论古巴和委内瑞拉的女演员。我以为她的名字是玛利亚·康奇塔·阿隆索。哦，对不起，是玛利亚·卡琳娜·马查多。这只是我的想法。想想看，1975年的获奖者玛利亚。看，民主党人批评政府没有让她掌权。但问题是，诺贝尔奖并不能让人掌权，持枪的人才能掌权。而她没有那些持枪的人。
So it'd be American GIs there would have to be the guns to keep her in power. And the administration has not done that. They're looking to basically work with the existing regime. And the big reason why we got sucked into Iraq is because of that whole debatification process where we didn't just get rid of Saddam. We took out the entire lead of the country, which created a huge insurgency. So there's been nothing like that, Jake Al, is what I'm trying to tell you. In this case, it's a whole different paradigm is what I'm trying to tell you.
所以，需要美国士兵持枪来支持她的政权。但是政府没有这样做，他们基本上是想与现有的政权合作。我们卷入伊拉克的一个重要原因是“去萨达姆化”进程。在这个过程中，我们不仅推翻了萨达姆，还清除了整个国家的领导层，结果引发了大规模的叛乱。杰克，我想告诉你的是，这里没有发生类似的事情。这次的情况完全不同。我想告诉你的是，这是一个完全不同的范式。
We're going to need a new name for it. Maybe Jamal Thizright is definitely not Neocon. Don Neocon. We might need a new branding for it. It depends on if Trump is cosplaying Neocon when he says he's going to take Greenland, when he says he's going to take Columbia next to me, says he's going to take Cuba. He's certainly playing the character of Neocon publicly here. And who knows that could be Trump just positioning himself an anchoring future negotiations.
我们需要为这件事起一个新名字。也许“Jamal Thizright”绝对不是“新保守主义者（Neocon）”，也不是“唐·新保守主义者”。我们可能需要重新打造这个品牌。这取决于特朗普是否在扮演新保守主义者的角色，比如他说要拿下格陵兰岛、哥伦比亚或者古巴，他显然在公开场合扮演新保守主义者的角色。而这也可能是特朗普在为未来的谈判做准备。
But if I was telling you, before the election, when you were saying, hey, do not let certain people become president, Nikki Haley, etc. Because they're Neocons and they're going to go to war with Venezuela. They're going to go to war with Iran. Well, that's exactly what Trump has done. And as flawless as our troops did and my lord, we have the greatest military ever. So just incredible job and shout out to them to do this and lose no American lives was just unbelievable. And it just says something about the dedication of these individuals.
但如果我在选举前告诉你，当时你说，不要让某些人成为总统，比如尼基·黑利等人，因为他们是新保守派，会与委内瑞拉和伊朗开战。那么，这恰恰是特朗普所做的。我们的军队表现得非常出色，我的天，我们有史以来最伟大的军事力量。他们完成任务没有损失任何美国人的生命，这简直令人难以置信。这也说明了这些人奉献精神的伟大。
But things can go wrong no matter how good you are. We could be sitting here right now with 12 captured Delta Force. We could have 50 dead of Americans. Where's the war? But if that did, this is where you have to be intellectually honest. If we were dealing with a situation where they didn't pick up the target and we had lost American troops and God forbid they had taken hostages, we would be sitting here with a much different discussion.
但无论你多么优秀，事情都有可能出错。我们现在可能会看到12名三角洲部队成员被俘，50名美国人死亡。战争在哪里？但如果这样的情况真的发生了，就需要保持思想上的诚实。如果我们的目标没有被找到，而我们失去了美国士兵，甚至更糟糕的是有人被劫持为人质，那我们的讨论会完全不同。
And so we have to be careful. I give we're not I give Trump, but that is an equal possibility. It's like certainly a non zero possibility. Things can go sideways. You sound like when Sam Harris was saying that imaginative COVID actually killed a lot of people. Then the conversation should be different. Well, it didn't. There was no war here. And by the way, with dead. And let's hope there isn't. And let's hope there isn't. You know, this is where I'll give Trump a lot of credit. He has been strategic. I do give you that. Stick and move. Stick him. Stick him.
我们必须小心。我承认我们并不是在支持特朗普，但这是一个同样有可能的选项。这种可能性并非为零，事情可能会发展得很糟糕。你听起来就像山姆·哈里斯谈论如果新冠病毒真的杀死了很多人，那么讨论应该有所不同。不过，并没有这种情况发生，这里也没有战争。顺便说一句，愿这样的事情不会发生。我们希望不会发生。这是我要称赞特朗普的地方，他在策略上非常机智。我承认这一点。策略灵活，随机应变。
Let's pray that he can continue. And by the way, on record string. First of all, even if we took Greenland, it's not going to be a new. There's 30,000 people who live there. But I think it's more likely that we'll make a deal. I think we're going to make an offer that can't refuse. OK. Shout out to my back. Can't how. Maybe you can make a deal. Let's make an offer that can't refuse.
让我们祈祷他能继续下去。顺便提一下，就在记录上。首先，即使我们拿下了格陵兰，它也不会是新的地方。那里住着30,000人。但我认为我们更有可能达成协议。我想我们要提出一个无法拒绝的报价。好的，向我的后盾致敬。也许你可以达成一笔交易。让我们提出一个无法拒绝的报价。
Yeah. I mean, how much could it cost? I mean, it's nothing there. Biggest business winner for 2025. Looks like freeberg picked robots and autonomous hardware, a year of the robot. I think if you include robot taxidere, you nailed it. Certainly next year will be the year of Optimus, 2027. Chamath, you said dollar-denominated stable coins. Think given what we've seen with regulation that was spot on. Gavin, shout out to our friend Gavin. He said big businesses that use AI thoughtfully. Another great one.
是啊，我是说，这能花多少钱呢？我的意思是，这里根本没什么花销。2025年的最大商业赢家看起来是自由伯格选择的机器人和自动化硬件，真是机器人的一年。我认为如果算上机器人出租车，你就说对了。当然，明年将是Optimus的一年，2027年。查马特，你说美元计价的稳定币。鉴于我们看到的监管情况，你说对了。加文，向我们的朋友加文致敬。他说那些认真运用人工智能的大企业也是一个很棒的选择。
I pick Tesla, which is at an all time high, and Google, which of all of the Mac 7 crushed. Is the biggest winner? And they did 65%. So I know both of those. I think all of us crushed that one. Who do you have freeberg as your biggest business winner prediction for 2026? Go ahead, freeberg. I couldn't decide. My number one is Huawei, which I've mentioned in the past out of China. I think Huawei's effort to partner with SMIC to go deeper in the chip stack.
我选择了目前处于历史高点的特斯拉以及被Mac 7重创的谷歌。谷歌是其中最大的赢家，他们的表现提升了65%。所以我知道这两个公司。我想我们所有人都曾分析过这个。Freeberg，你预测2026年谁会是最大的商业赢家呢？请说说你的看法，Freeberg。我没能决定。我心目中的第一名是华为，我之前也提到过它来自中国。我认为华为与中芯国际合作深入芯片领域的努力是值得关注的。
And they're just firing on all cylinders. I do think keep an eye on Huawei over the next year. It's going to outperform expectations, at least the Western expectations. And the second is a polymarket. I think polymarkets evolved from being kind of this one off quirky prediction market to actually really providing insights into current events and the news in a way that none of us anticipated. And I do expect that after the deal we saw with NIC that all of the exchanges, and we're already seeing this with Robin Hood and Coinbase, and we should expect something from NASDAQ this year.
他们正全力以赴。我认为在接下来的一年里，大家应该关注华为，其表现将超出预期，至少超出西方的预期。第二个是多重市场。我认为多重市场已经从一种偶然出现的独特预测市场，发展成真正能提供对当前事件和新闻的深刻见解的工具，这超出了我们的预料。我确实预计，在我们看到与NIC的交易之后，所有交易平台都会跟进，目前我们已经在Robin Hood和Coinbase看到了这一趋势，我们也应该期待NASDAQ今年会有动作。
Adina Friedman talked to us about this. But I do think that prediction markets could become not just markets, but also news. And I think polymarkets just in such a position to have a break out here. Okay. Great one, Chimath. Biggest business winner for 2026 after yourself. Who do you got? Yeah, it's hard. I mean, I will pick me. Yep. We need to sort of done that. That was coming. Sort of. Don't hurt your elbow. Don't hyper extend your elbow already in the books.
阿迪娜·弗里德曼和我们谈过这个问题。不过，我确实认为预测市场不仅可以成为市场，还可能成为一种新闻。我觉得Polymarkets正处于有可能突破的这样一个位置。好的，很棒的问题，Chimath。继你之后，2026年最大的商业赢家是谁？这个很难说。嗯，我可能会选我自己。没错，我们有点预感到了这个答案。稍微小心点，别伤到自己的胳膊，已经写在书里了。
So, can't it's all downhill from here? I think we need to use that meme of Obama giving himself a medal. Chimath is giving himself. I will pick Copper. Okay. Copper. We are still completely underestimating how short we are in terms of the global demand supply dynamics of a handful of critical elements that we need. Again, in the Trump doctrine view of the world, that is no longer as multilateral as it was.
所以，不能说一切都要从这里开始走下坡路了吗？我觉得我们应该用奥巴马给自己颁奖的那个表情包。Chimath 就像是在给自己颁奖。我会选择铜。好吧，铜。我们仍然完全低估了在全球供需动态方面我们对一些关键元素的短缺程度。从特朗普主义的世界观来看，这个世界已不再像以前那样多边合作。
And we need to have unilateral national security. And if you look through that lens, the asset that is set up to go absolutely parabolic is copper. And the reason is that it is at least as it stands today, the most useful, cheap, amenable, conductive material that we have. Not material manifests in everything from our data centers to our chips to our weapons systems. It's just everywhere, everywhere, everywhere.
我们需要单边的国家安全。从这个角度来看，铜这一资产极有可能呈现出爆炸式增长。原因是，至少就目前而言，铜是我们现有的最实用、成本低、适应性强和导电性好的材料。这种材料在各个方面都有应用，从数据中心到芯片，再到武器系统，无处不在。
And right now, Jason, we are on a path by 2040 where we will be short about 70% of the global supply at current course in speed. And so I will pick Copper. Sax, what do you got? Biggest business winner is 20 to 26. You're pretty good. You said the IPO, I think 2026 is going to be a big year for IPO. So I'm not going to say which ones. I think there's going to be a bunch of them, a bunch of successful ones. And I think we could see trillions of dollars of new market cap created of public companies for a while. People were concerned that the number of public companies was shrinking. Public companies were actually being taken private. This is going to be a bigger reversal of that trend. So I think this is going to be part of that Trump boom will be the IPO. We love that one. I like that one.
目前，Jason，我们正在走一条到2040年全球供应将短缺约70%的道路，按当前的速度前进。因此，我会选择铜作为讨论对象。Sax，你有什么看法？最大的商业赢家是在2020到2026年之间。你相当不错。你说过IPO，我认为2026年将是IPO的一个大年。我不会说具体是哪些，但我认为会有很多成功的IPO。我认为我们可能会见证到公共公司市值增加数万亿美元。曾经有人担心上市公司的数量在减少，许多公司被私有化了。这将是对这一趋势的重大逆转。所以，我认为这将成为特朗普经济热潮的一部分，而IPO将成为其中的一个亮点。我们对此充满期待。我喜欢这个观点。
I went with, since I nailed the Mag 7 for last year and picked the highest performer with Google. And I placed a bet on that. So I'm pretty good about it. My prediction for 2026 is that Amazon is going to have a massive year. Interest as they continue to replace you guys with robots. That's why here's a chart for you. I've been talking about this a little bit. I think this is the most important company to watch because dukes, their self-driving is working. They're making great progress with it. And here when you look at this chart, you can see they're essentially flat in terms of hiring humans and they're surging in deploying robots and they did their whole PR, comm strategy of calling them co-bots and donating to toys for tots, etc.
我去年成功预测了Mag 7，并且准确选中了谷歌作为表现最佳的公司。我还因此下了个赌注。对于2026年，我的预测是亚马逊将迎来一个辉煌的年份。随着他们继续用机器人取代员工，兴趣在不断上升。因此，我准备了一张图表与你分享。我一直在谈论这家公司，我认为这是最值得关注的公司之一，因为他们的自动驾驶技术已经取得了显著进展。从这张图表可以看出，他们在人力招聘方面基本持平，而在机器人的部署方面却呈现出激增。他们还推出了一个公关传播策略，把机器人称为“协同机器人”，并且向“玩具捐赠计划”等慈善活动捐赠。
I think they'll be the first corporate singularity, which is to say the first company to have more robots driving their bottom line than humans. So that's my prediction for 2026 as Amazon. And I'm going to place a bet on that. My prediction is that Jake has such a luck box that he'll end up being right about Amazon, but not having anything to do with the Reesany game. Correct. The higher a billion humans to go do something and it'll be for a different reason. I am a luck box. That is true. It'll just be better free cash flow and all of a sudden more people using AWS and Jake I will be right.
我认为他们将成为第一个企业奇点，也就是说，第一个靠机器人产生更多利润而不是靠人类的公司。所以这是我对2026年亚马逊的预测。我打算为此下注。我预测Jake会非常幸运，最终关于亚马逊的预测会是正确的，但与Reesany游戏无关。是的，他们会雇用十亿人去做一些事情，但原因会有所不同。我确实很幸运，只是会有更好的自由现金流，而且突然间会有更多人使用AWS，然后Jake和我将是对的。
Well, actually, I think the reason is if you just, if you think about it, I don't know if you guys have had this experience, but with the delivery business, which was kind of a dog for a long time, obviously, AWS is crushing it. But that delivery business here in Austin, we get everything the same day. You're going to experience this, David. There are because of the, I think the geography here and the ability to have depot centers very close. Everything you order on Amazon comes within the same day. You know, I've already started ordering things from Amazon. You're right. It was all same day. I'm like, wait, what is going on? That's what it is. We have a lot of space 15 miles outside of the city center, 20 cent.
好的，我认为原因是，如果你仔细想想，也许你们有没有这样的经历，但配送业务以前不太好，现在显然AWS表现很出色。在奥斯汀，我们几乎所有的东西都能当天送达。大卫，你可能会体验到这一点。因为这里的地理条件和靠近配送中心的便利性，我们在奥斯汀从亚马逊上订购的东西都会在同一天送达。我已经开始从亚马逊上订购东西了，你说得对，都是当天送达的。我当时还想，怎么回事呢？就是这样的。我们在离市中心大约15英里的位置有很多空地。
And they built these huge warehouses. So you just get everything within four hours. They're like, well, be right there. It's very bizarre. So Jason, you'll buy like virtues at like 8 a.m. and it arrives by noon. Yes, absolutely. Absolutely. And when you put your order in for ethics and morality, it just never shows up. I don't know. It's lost again. Who knows? It's just incredible. We're just going to the spectrum here. It's like, so I was like, hello, customer support. I ordered a moral compass two years ago. Bill hasn't arrived. Okay. Biggest business loser. I love each mom. He had behind the 20 billion. Absolutely. I call I know he's got my bequette.
他们建了这些巨大的仓库，所以你只需四个小时就能拿到所有东西。他们就像是，“马上就到。”这真的很奇怪。比如说，杰森，你可以在早上8点买点“美德”，然后中午之前就到货。是的，绝对可以。而当你下单“伦理和道德”时，它却从来没有送达。我不知道。又丢了。谁知道呢，这实在是让人难以置信。我们这算是走极端了。我就像是，“你好，客服吗？我两年前订购的道德指南针还没到。” 最大的生意输家。我喜欢那些妈妈，他背后还欠着200亿。我知道他肯定拿走了我的东西。
So I hope your compass never shows up. You got your bequette on that deal? Well, Sundee came to Bestie's and he wanted to collect all besties. We all got to place a little bet. And then by the way, by the way, I divested my rock shares as part of joining the government back in like February or March. That's a lot. So oh, by the way, by the way, would that cost you like what the last triple up? No, it was a small position that came from Groc acquiring Sundee's old company. We didn't invest in Groc. So it wasn't big, but the point was, yeah, it's just another example of you sacrificing the country, which I give you a lot of credit for.
所以我希望你的指南针永远不会出现。你在那个交易上有你的份额吗？嗯，Sundee来到了Bestie's，他想要收集所有好朋友。我们都得稍微赌一把。顺便说一下，顺便说一下，我在大概二月或三月加入政府时，卖掉了我的矿石股份。这可是不少。哦，对了，对了，那让你损失了多少？是最后一次三倍收益吗？不，那只是一个小额投资，是因为Groc收购了Sundee的旧公司。我们没有投资Groc，所以金额不大，但重点是，这只是你为了国家利益做出牺牲的又一个例子，我对此非常佩服你。
It's good for SACs to put that on the record. Yeah. Well, it's just ridiculous to choose of somehow doing this job for money when it just keeps constantly money. It's negative money. Yeah, I just raised an up-round at place evaluation from the last round that we had to invest that too. Yeah. No, no, we didn't set it out. Hold on. Let's be clear. We didn't set it out. We divested it. Oh. So you place the bet and then before you get to collect the ticket, you lose the last double up or triple up. The economic cost of SACs will probably exceed a billion dollars by the time he leaves. Personally, this is crazy. I mean, people make a notice. It's a very important thing to put on the record.
将这段话翻译成中文并尽量简明易读：
让SACs把这件事记录下来是好的。是啊，认为我们是为了赚钱而做这个工作简直太荒谬了，因为这工作一直都在亏钱。是的，我刚刚提高了一个轮次的投资估值，并且把资金投入到那个评估中去。不是的，我们没有设置它。等一下，我们要说清楚，我们没有设置它，而是撤资了。哦。所以，你下注了，但在能收回票据之前，就在最后翻倍或三倍下注时失败了。到他离开的时候，SACs的经济损失可能会超过十亿美元。我个人觉得这太疯狂了。人们应该注意到，把这件事记录下来是非常重要的。
I think it's important for everybody. Everybody should know. All these don't reporters don't get it, but SACs has sacrificed financially an enormous amount to work on behalf of the government and the people. That's really amazing. It's fine. I wouldn't even say anything about it if it weren't for the fact that we got these mainstream media reporters lying and saying the opposite that somehow this job was making me money. Right. I wouldn't say a word about it otherwise.
我认为这对每个人都很重要，所有人都应该知道。那些记者不明白，但SACs在经济上做出了巨大的牺牲，为政府和人民服务。这真的很了不起。没关系。如果不是因为这些主流媒体的记者撒谎，说这份工作让我赚钱，我根本不会提起此事。否则，我一句话都不会说。
Anyway, business loser 2025, Gavin said federal government service providers. I guess because of Doge and them being held to the fire, feed to the fire there to give us a better deal. Old guard defense contractors like Bowen and Lockheed was yours, Friedberg. And Chimoff, you said the max seven, you expected a decrease in the record concentration. I said, Open AI, which would see a peak valuation. And I would say got that wrong. What do you got this year, Friedberg? What do you think is going to be the biggest business loser of this year?
无论如何，2025年的商业输家，Gavin提到是联邦政府的服务供应商。我猜这可能与狗狗币（Doge）等因素有关，他们承受了很大的压力，需要为我们提供更好的交易。像Bowen和Lockheed这样的老牌国防承包商是你的选择，Friedberg。而Chimoff，你提到最大七号（max seven），你预期那里的记录集中度会有所下降。我曾说过Open AI会达到峰值估值，但我承认我错了。今年你有什么看法，Friedberg？你认为今年哪个行业会成为最大的商业输家？
To follow up on Chimoff and my conversation at the Christmas dinner, I think the state governments are going to have a real problem with finding financing because what's going on with the exposés that are underway on waste fraud and abuse in state agencies, I think is going to lead to a conversation that's going to cause folks to question the long-term solvency in operations because the response won't be, hey, let's cut out the waste fraud and the abuse. The response is going to be, we got to keep it going.
在圣诞晚宴上，关于Chimoff和我之间谈话的后续，我认为州政府在寻找资金上会面临一个真正的问题。这是因为正在进行中的关于州机构中浪费、欺诈和滥用现象的曝光。我认为这将引发一场讨论，让人们质疑这些机构长期运营的偿付能力，因为人们的反应不会是：“嘿，让我们消除浪费、欺诈和滥用。” 相反，他们会认为有必要继续维持现状。
And that is what is going to give people fear is that if they did respond, call it equivocally to the discoveries that the governments did, then I think that there's an opportunity to continue to be able to borrow and access capital markets. But I do worry a lot about state governments borrowing. I think the other thing that's going to hit the fan this year in state governments is all of these unrealized pension liabilities. I think when these numbers start to come out this year and a lot of people are now digging deep into it, folks are going to wake up and be like, holy s**t, there's a ginormous hole in these states in their obligation.
这就是让人感到恐惧的地方：如果他们对政府的发现做出了含糊不清的反应，那么我认为仍有机会继续借款并进入资本市场。但我非常担心州政府的借贷问题。我认为今年在州政府中将会爆发的另一件事情就是未实现的养老金负债。当今年这些数据浮出水面，并且很多人开始深入研究这个问题时，人们会意识到这些州在履行义务方面存在巨大的缺口。
Why does the government have to do these pensions? Why can't we do superannuation like Australia does? We have to get this out of the, I love that pick. That's called a defined contribution instead of a defined benefit. And if you get this defined contribution model and then just have good management, it all works out. So this is basically the problem with social security. Social security is a defined benefit and then all the money just doesn't sit anywhere, it doesn't exist. Right. If it was a defined contribution, it's just a liability.
为什么政府必须提供这些养老金？为什么我们不能像澳大利亚那样实行超级年金制度？我们必须解决这个问题。我喜欢那种叫做“确定缴费型”的模式，而不是“确定收益型”。如果采用确定缴费型模式，只要有良好的管理，一切就会顺利进行。这正是社会保障的问题所在。社会保障是一个“确定收益型”，资金并没有存放在任何地方，实际上不存在。如果采用确定缴费型，它就只是一个责任。
And let me give a shout out. If it was a defined contribution like invest America accounts or Trump accounts as they're being called and you put the money in and you see how much you have in every year you track it and that's what your retirement is going to be. Just like we might have with our 401Ks or our iris, that is a system that actually has true solvency. Otherwise, it becomes this runaway train of liability and that's effectively what the states have set up and it's very dangerous.
让我来解释一下。假如有一种定义明确的缴费计划，比如投资美国账户或所谓的特朗普账户，你投入资金，每年查看积累了多少，这就是你未来退休的资金来源。就像我们的401K或IRA账户，这种系统实际上是具有真正偿付能力的。否则，就会变成不断上升的负债，这正是各州现在建立的系统，非常危险。
And if we were to take government out of it and then every American just had to put 10, 12, 14% into their retirement account and it was forced, you would have happy people who feel some agency in their lives, which the people of Australia do. Chema, who's your loser 20, 26? I will pick the software industrial complex. So these are the companies that sell licensed SaaS to the corporations of America.
如果我们将政府的因素去掉，每个美国人都必须强制性地把他们收入的10%、12%或14%存入退休账户，这样做的结果是，人们会感到生活中有掌控感，就像澳大利亚的民众那样满意。Chema，你认为2026年的输家会是谁？我会选择软件工业复合体，也就是那些向美国企业销售SaaS许可证的公司。
It's about a three to four trillion dollar a year economy that is separated into three buckets. Bucket one, which is the smallest, is the initial licensing. That's probably five to 10%. Buckets two and three where all the money is made is what's called maintenance and migration, which is how do I just maintain this big bulky license that I just bought for $300 billion as an example or how do I migrate it from product to product B? Those last two buckets represent 90% of all the dollars in revenue that's generated in software.
这大约是一个三到四万亿美元的年经济体，这个经济体被分成三个部分。第一个部分是初始授权，这部分是最小的，可能只占5%到10%。第二和第三个部分是赚钱的地方，分别称为维护和迁移。简单来说，就是我该如何维护我刚花3000亿美元买下来的这个大额授权，或者如何将其从产品A迁移到产品B？后两个部分占据了软件行业90%的收入。
And because of the advancement of these models and the advancement of these technological techniques that we are all uncovering, building agents, building systems, I think you're going to see that total economic opportunity shrink and contract aggressively. The companies will still be able to do their business. It'll just be at a much, much lower incremental revenue.
由于这些模型和技术手段的进步，我们正在开发各种代理和系统。我认为，你会看到总的经济机会将迅速萎缩和收缩。公司仍然能够开展业务，只是增量收入会大幅降低。
The customers will be able to do their business. They'll have a lot more flexibility and a lot of upstarts, I think, will have opportunity. I'm speaking my book, obviously, but I'm seeing it on the ground because I have a company building software. The entire business, 80, 90's business, has basically migrated to disrupting maintenance and migration patterns. I cannot describe how much opportunity there is. It's very tactical, mundane, not very sexy work, but it's incredibly lucrative. And so I expect that that thing is going to shrink. It's going to impact SaaS companies, public SaaS companies, particularly quite severely. For me, we already talked about this, but it was California because of the wealth tax and also the owner's regulations driving business in capital out of the state.
顾客将能够更灵活地开展业务。我认为，很多新兴企业会有机会崭露头角。我当然是在为我的公司说话，因为我们正在开发软件。从80年代、90年代以来，整个业务基本上都迁移到了颠覆性的维护和迁移模式。我无法形容这里面有多少机会。这些工作非常战术化、繁琐，并不华丽，但利润非常可观。因此，我预计这一领域会缩小，并会对SaaS公司，特别是上市的SaaS公司，产生重大影响。至于我之前提到过的加州，由于财富税和所有者法规，正在推动资本和企业外流。
I hope you guys are right that it does not make the ballot. If it does, I think there will be a panic and rush for the exits. Regardless, there's two major refineries closing by the spring. Higher gas prices will be the result. I just think that the politicians are not doing good enough job in California, dispelling the fears and the actual hostility of the business environment. That's a great one. I went with young white collar workers in America. I think they're going to be the biggest business loser. I think it's getting really hard for them to get entry-level jobs. I'm seeing that all over the place because companies are having an easier job just automating with AI than training up Gen Z graduates. That's my belief.
我希望你们是对的，希望这件事不会进入投票阶段。如果真的进入了，我觉得会引发一场恐慌，大家会赶紧撤退。无论如何，到春天时将有两家大型炼油厂关闭，这会导致油价上涨。我只是觉得，加州的政治家们在消除对商业环境的恐惧和敌意方面做得不够好。这真是个问题。我和美国的年轻白领工人待在一起，我认为他们会成为最大的商业失意者。我感觉他们现在很难找到入门级的工作，因为企业发现比起培训 Z 世代的毕业生，用人工智能来自动化运作要容易得多。这就是我的看法。
That's why I'm watching Founding University of Reconstance. If you are a young person, you got to be resilient. You're going to have to be self-reliant independent of what? Mandami. Mandami says about collectivism. It's easier to use AI than it is to train up. We don't have professional development. That needs to come back. I just did an interview with the CEO of McKinsey, which you may have seen on the feed. This is the big challenge. Incorporate America is they're taking out the bottom two or three runs and automating stuff. We really need to develop young people so that they have a path to take the CEO jobs eventually. I don't think they're going to have an easy time doing that. That's why I think all young people should start companies. I am talking my own book. I am talking about Founder. University of Police apply, Japan, Saudi, and in America. We're going to help you build companies.
这就是为什么我关注康斯坦茨创始大学。如果你是年轻人，你必须具备韧性。你需要独立自主，不依赖于Mandami对集体主义的看法。使用人工智能比人才培训更容易。我们没有专业发展，这需要重视起来。我刚刚与麦肯锡的CEO进行了采访，可能你在社交媒体上已经看到了。这是一个重大挑战。在企业界，他们正在淘汰底层的职位并实现自动化。我们确实需要培养年轻人，让他们未来有机会担任CEO职位。我认为他们在这个过程中不会轻松。这也是为什么我认为所有年轻人都应该创业。我在谈论我自己的经验，也在谈论创始人大学。无论是在波士顿、柏林、东京、沙特还是美国，我们都会帮助你建立公司。
Thank you for my promo. Jason, I got a text last night from a friend. It's in response to your comments about young people not being able to find jobs because of AI, which is the statement you've made a couple times. He said went to around about 50 CEOs of public and private companies and asked everyone if they're hiring junior engineers. Everyone said they are still, but not as much as before because during COVID, every college lowered the bar and admissions and the talent just isn't as good anymore. My friend went on and he said you should talk about this to counter J.C.H.H. point about AI taking young people's jobs. We see this with financial analysts and we see this with salespeople we hire.
感谢我的晋升。Jason，昨晚我收到朋友的一条短信。他是回应你关于年轻人因为人工智能找不到工作的言论，你提过几次这样的观点。他说他问了大约50位上市和非上市公司的CEO，询问他们是否还在招聘初级工程师。大家都说他们仍在招聘，但没有以前多了，因为疫情期间，各大学降低了录取标准，导致人才质量下降。我的朋友接着说，你应该就此话题进行讨论，以反驳J.C.H.H.关于AI抢走年轻人工作的观点。我们在招聘财务分析师和销售人员时也看到了这种情况。
The Gen Z kids are all really challenging to hire because of cultural issues, not because we're not hiring them due to AI. We try and hire older people primarily to fill those roles. There's a real interesting point that he was making, our text of a couple of their friends to ask them their opinion. I've heard this concurrence, J.C.H.H.H.H. which is a lot of people think that recent grads out of college and this may be a COVID era phenomenon. They just don't seem to have the temperament, the motivation, the organizational skills. Executive function. Yeah. And by the way, some of our friends who I've talked to who have kids graduating college, there's even a conversation about none of these kids are motivated to get jobs or to make money.
Z世代的年轻人由于文化问题都很难被雇用，并不是因为我们不愿意雇用他们或因为人工智能的原因。我们主要尝试雇用年长的人来填补这些职位。他提到一个相当有趣的观点：我们可以给他们的几个朋友发短信，询问他们的看法。我听过一种共同的说法，人们认为最近从大学毕业的学生可能是受到疫情时代影响，他们似乎缺乏合适的性格、动力和组织能力，以及执行力。此外，我和一些朋友聊过，他们有孩子刚从大学毕业，这些朋友还讨论说，现在的年轻人似乎都不太有动力去找工作或赚钱。
There's a very weird phenomenon in the youth right now. And this may be a COVID phenomenon and it may be a cultural thing that's part of the long form of what's going on in our society or it may be a socialist trend or it may be a populist trend or it may just be that people have gotten too wealthy and the nation has truly split and you can't climb the ladder anymore. There's a bunch of things going on here. But I do not think, and I think a lot of people are echoing this, J.C.H.H.H.L. that challenges that young people are having, finding employment is purely rooted in an AI and automation phenomenon but it may be a cultural phenomenon.
现在的年轻人中存在一种非常奇怪的现象。这可能是由于新冠疫情引发的，也可能是社会文化变化的一部分，还可能是社会主义或民粹主义的趋势，或者仅仅是因为人们变得过于富裕，国家确实分裂，并且攀登社会阶梯变得困难。有很多因素在起作用。但我不认为，许多人也有同样的看法，年轻人在寻找工作时面临的挑战完全是由于人工智能和自动化趋势造成的，这可能更多是一个文化现象。
So I just put that on the plate for you to consider that they don't think it's so not. I do think it's both. I do think it is partially what you're saying is that maybe these young folks have, you know, they're just either entitled or their parents have enough money for them to skate and go sideways and maybe not BS career motivated. It could be a social thing, it could be a COVID thing, it could be all of those. And certainly multi factor. I just know what I see on the ground, which is, you know, so many companies coming to me saying, we can replace the bottom third of these tasks and that those bottom third of tasks are typically done by young people out of school. So I think both things are probably true to a certain extent. And time will tell, I do think it's going to be challenging and continuing to be challenging. You see that in the numbers from, you know, Google, Uber, Coinbase, all these companies are doing more with less.
所以，我只是想让你考虑一下，他们并不觉得事情不是这样。我确实认为这两方面的因素都有可能。可能确实如你所说，这些年轻人要么是有特权，要么是他们的父母有足够的钱让他们不太在意事业发展，过得比较自在。这可能是个社会问题，也可能与新冠疫情有关，或者这几者都有涉及，而且肯定是多因素造成的。我只是基于我所看到的情况，这么多公司来告诉我，他们可以替换掉底层三分之一的任务，而这些任务通常是由刚毕业的年轻人完成的。因此，我认为这两种情况都在一定程度上是真的。时间会证明这一点，我确实认为这会是一个挑战并且持续具有挑战性。你也可以从谷歌、优步、Coinbase等公司的表现中看到，它们都在用更少的资源做更多的事情。
And maybe that's just the nature of AI. Maybe the first thing you do is cut costs. And maybe the second thing you do is hire people who know how to use these tools. If you are a young person who uses AI tools, you're going to find a job if you're a young person who isn't motivated and doesn't use AI tools, you're going to have a hard time. Let's go with the biggest deal. Last year's predictions for biggest deal for 2025, traditional auto OEM consolidation. That was huge. I think that we haven't seen exactly the consolidation, but we have seen those businesses come apart. So I think it's, I give you definitely two thirds of a credit there. Gavin said a tidal wave of M&A. I think he's not wrong there. That has started to happen. Certainly. Freeberg, you said massive compute build out deals. Of course, you know, that one, I said consolidation amongst the on demand economy that hasn't happened, but we do see a lot of deals occurring.
也许这就是人工智能的本质。或许首先做的事情是削减成本，然后是雇佣懂得如何使用这些工具的人。如果你是一个会使用人工智能工具的年轻人，你会找到工作；但如果你是一个不积极、不会使用人工智能工具的年轻人，就会遇到困难。我们来看最大的一笔交易。去年预测2025年最大的一笔交易是传统汽车制造商的整合。这是一个巨大的变化。我认为虽然我们还没有看到完全的整合，但我们确实看到这些企业分裂了。所以我认为可以给这个预测打出三分之二的分数。Gavin提到的并购潮，这一点他没有说错，这已经开始发生了。当然。Freeberg提到大规模计算基础设施的建设协议，这是显而易见的。我提到按需经济的整合，这还没有出现，但我们确实看到很多交易正在发生。
And I said also Apple would buy Warner Brothers. I got that like a, I guess that wound up going to Netflix, so give me a half point for that. What do you have as your biggest deal for 20, 20, 60, if it's X? Well, I don't want to get, I don't want to get too specific here in terms of names of companies. That's the thing. Yeah. But what I would say is that I think there was a breakthrough in the last couple of months in terms of these coding assistants where they've been around for a while, but there seems to have been another level of quality achieved just in the last month or so. And you're really starting to hear, I mean, maybe a lot of it is hype, but there is, I think a lot of people are getting very excited about the potential here. And part of it is coding, part of it is just tool use. You can download the programs. And so it has access to your file drive and it can take actions on your computer.
我之前说过苹果会收购华纳兄弟。看起来最终却是Netflix介入了，所以给自己半分吧。那么你认为在2060年最大的交易会是什么？我不想过于具体地提公司名称。不过我想说的是，最近几个月编程助手领域有了突破性进展。虽然已经存在了一段时间，但似乎就在过去一个月左右，质量上升到了一个新的水平。也许很多只是炒作，但我认为很多人对这些助理的潜力感到非常兴奋。一部分是因为编程，另一部分是因为这些工具的使用。你可以下载这些程序，它们能访问你的文件驱动器，并在你的电脑上执行操作。
This trend feels to me like chat bots did at the end of 2022 going into 23 where it's like people were really hyped about it, but then continue to play out, play out in the next year. And so I think these, let's call it coding assistant slash tool use, I think we'll get bigger and bigger this year. Freeberg, what do you got? Biggest deal. Russia, Ukraine, I think it's going to settle out this year. I think there's a lot of motivating factors to get it settled out this year, economic and other political factors. But I do think it's going to settle out this year and it's going to bring a bit more stability to that region. And there's a whole reset that's underway this year, I think in terms of geopolitics and where the power is all set. Trump can stop that war. He would do for two. I think this one's going to settle. That would be great. He may not have done it on day one, but if he gets it done in year two, that's good enough for me.
这种趋势让我想起2022年底到2023年初时聊天机器人的情形。当时，人们对此非常热衷，但实际上这个热潮会继续延续到之后的一年。因此，我认为现在所谓的编码助手或工具将会在今年不断发展壮大。关于最大的事情，Freeberg提到俄罗斯和乌克兰的冲突，我认为今年会有解决的可能。因为有许多经济和其他政治因素促使这个问题在今年解决，这将给该地区带来更多的稳定。我认为今年在地缘政治和权力分配方面会有大的调整。如果特朗普能让战争停下来，那将是件好事。尽管他可能并没有在第一年就解决，但如果能在第二年做到，这对我来说已经足够了。
Chema. Biggest deal. 2026. What do you got? It's not a specific deal, but it's an approach. I think that M&A cannot happen. And so it's the IP license M&A work around. And I think you're going to see hundreds of billions of dollars of these kinds of deals. So this is the deal that Google did with Character AI. It's the same thing that they did. Microsoft did it. Microsoft did it. It's obviously what Nvidia did with GROC. Why are these deals happening? Well, if you just look at what Facebook tried to do, they tried to buy Manus for $2.5 billion. Manus was a Chinese company that then left China and essentially rebuilt itself as a Singaporean business. The Chinese have now said, we're going to look at this. They are going to actively import export controls. They're going to actively look at which technologies and even which researchers are working on things that are critical enough that it just can't go abroad in this existential fight that they believe they're in with the United States. The United States is in equivalent such position.
这是世马（Chema）。最大的交易。2026年。你有什么想法？这不是一个具体的交易，而是一种策略。我认为合并与收购（M&A）无法进行。因此，就出现了知识产权（IP）授权的合并与收购替代方案。我认为你会看到数千亿美元的这种交易。这就是谷歌与Character AI的合作，微软也这么做了。显然，英伟达与GROC也是这样做的。这些交易为什么会发生呢？看看Facebook的尝试，他们试图以25亿美元收购Manus。Manus是一家中国公司，后来离开中国，基本上以新加坡公司重建。中国已经表示会关注这些事情，他们将积极实施进出口控制，积极审查哪些技术甚至哪些研究人员正在进行对他们来说重要到不能流出国门的研发，因为他们认为与美国的对抗是一场生存之战。美国也处于类似的立场。
All of this leads me to believe that traditional MNA is effectively done. I think it's going to be impossible to get a large transaction done. So how will you do it? You'll do what Sundar did. You'll do what Sathya did. You'll do what Jensen did. You'll do what Jensen did. You'll do what Jensen did. These huge licensing deals that basically replace MNA. And I think that that as a deal type, we'll get better and more refined and tighter and better executed. were the third or fourth of these kinds of deals and even the third or fourth iteration was quite good. By the time that you're into the middle part of next year and you've done 15 or 20 of these things, I think the lawyers that work on these scenes and the accountants will just be the tax treatment is not ideal, but the speed at which you can do them is phenomenal because the next day somebody like Sundeep can be working for Jensen, which is what Jensen wants. They want the talent. Zuckerberg wants the talent working there. And the IP, and the IP, of course.
所有这些让我相信传统的并购（MNA）实际上已经结束。我认为进行大额交易将变得不可能。那么你将如何进行？你会像Sundar那样做，像Sathya那样做，像Jensen那样做。这些大型许可协议基本上替代了并购。我认为这种交易类型会变得更好、更精简、更紧密且执行更出色。我们是此类交易的第三或第四个，而即便是第三或第四次迭代，效果也相当不错。到明年年中，当你完成15到20个这样的交易时，我认为处理这些事务的律师和会计师会感觉税务处理可能不是最理想的，但执行的速度却极其惊人，因为第二天像Sundeep这样的人就可以为Jensen工作，而这正是Jensen想要的。他们需要人才，Zuckerberg也希望人才在那里工作。当然，还有知识产权。
For 2026, I think we're going to see some massive M&A. It doesn't matter to me how it occurs, but I do think we're going to see a 50 billion plus deal. I think it could be one of the Mac 7 and Apple, Ameida, Microsoft, or Amazon going out and trying to buy XAI, Mistro, Proplexity, Anthropic. One of those four comes to mind. I know most of them probably want to go public and go it alone, but I think an offer could come in and during that race for which six or seven large language models and men, it is a battle where they are moving up and down the rankings and beating each other out. I'm going to ask you a question. And I think one of them is going to go for it. I think it could wind up being Apple, Ameida, or Amazon who buys an Anthropic or a Proplexity.
到2026年，我认为我们将会看到一些大规模的并购活动。对于发生形式我无所谓，但我确实认为我们将会看到超过500亿美元的交易。我觉得这可能涉及Mac 7和苹果、阿美达（Ameida）、微软或亚马逊等公司尝试收购XAI、Mistro、Proplexity、Anthropic中的一个。这四家公司中的一个进入我的考虑。虽然我知道大多数公司可能希望上市并独立发展，但我认为可能会有一个收购提案出现。在这种竞争六七个大型语言模型的过程中，各家公司在排名上争夺你追我赶。我想问你一个问题：我认为其中一个会采取行动。我认为最终可能是苹果、阿美达或亚马逊会收购Anthropic或Proplexity。
I started where you were, but this is why I went to this deal type as the biggest business winner because if any of those companies tried to buy, let's just say Anthropic, I think it's three years of antitrust, minimum. It's worse than when Microsoft tried to buy Activision because that was a niche product. And even that took almost two years and like three or four months if I'm getting it right. It was about two years. It's huge slog because it's about global coordination of multiple regulators. One of them takes the lead pole position. But in the Microsoft case, it wasn't just one. You had to navigate China. You had to navigate.
我最初和你处于相同的起点，但这是我选择这种交易类型作为最大赢家的原因。如果任何一家公司试图收购Anthropic，我们可以说至少需要三年的反垄断审查。相比之下，当微软试图收购动视的时候，情况还要糟糕，因为动视是一个相对小众的产品。即便如此，那次收购也花了将近两年，大概是两年零三四个月，我记得大概就是这样。这是一个非常艰难的过程，因为它涉及多个国家的监管机构的全球协调。其中一个国家会处于主导地位。但在微软的案例中，涉及的不仅仅是一个国家。你必须应对中国的监管问题，还要处理其他国家的复杂情况。
I agree with you because I think there's companies with so much cash on their balance sheets that are effectively getting debased every day. The markets will start to punish these companies. It just seems like you're right. There's going to be a hundred billion dollar transaction. I just suspect it'll end up as an IP license. And I think President Trump, one of his great shranks is that he moves quickly. Ben, what a first year, whether you like the decisions or not, he makes decisions. I think this is one of the things that Democrats are learning is that you got to actually get things done for the American people. I think he might instruct our government to let M&A be great again. And that would be great for American exceptionalism.
我同意你的看法，因为我认为有些公司的资产负债表上有大量现金，这些现金实际上每天都在贬值。市场将开始惩罚这些公司。看起来你是对的，可能会有一笔价值一千亿美元的交易。我猜测这最终将变成一项知识产权许可。而且我认为特朗普总统的一个巨大优势就是他行动迅速。无论你是否喜欢他的决定，他在上任第一年做出了许多决策。我认为这是民主党人正在学习的一点：必须为美国人民真正地做事情。我认为他可能会指示我们的政府再次让并购变得伟大。这对美国的卓越地位来说将是很好的。
These companies do need to merge and to continue to grow. And we should go try to get from a Mag 7 to a Mag 17. We need more bigger companies with bigger footprints, taking on global markets. Most contrained belief, most contrained belief, people like this one. I said, opening I loses its lead in the AI race. And in fact, that has happened if you look at the arenas and you look at their market share, they are being challenged. Shemoff, you said the banking crisis in one of the major mainline banks. Gavin said one year of 5% plus GDP growth at one point over the next couple of years, well done to Gavin.
这些公司确实需要合并并继续发展。我们应该努力从Mag 7增长到Mag 17。我们需要更多的具有更大影响力的大公司来占领全球市场。许多人坚持的固有观念是，认为开放AI在人工智能竞赛中丧失了领先地位。如果你观察市场和他们的市场份额，就会发现他们正在面临挑战。Shemoff，你提到了一家主要银行的银行危机。Gavin表示，在未来几年中的某个时间点，将会有一年达到5%以上的GDP增长，对Gavin表示祝贺。
Freeberg, you said socialism was a more osmac. Another amazing prediction. What's your prediction for this year since you crushed it last year, freeberg? My prediction is based on the premise that I think there is going to be this revolution in Iran and the IOTOAs are going to be out. That's not the contraire in belief. I think that's the standard belief. And I think that is going to happen and that's the premise. But a lot of people think that Iran is part of the desabilizing force in the Middle East.
Freeberg，你说过社会主义更像是osmac。这又是一个惊人的预测。那么你对今年有什么预测呢，毕竟你去年预测得相当准确呢，Freeberg？我的预测基于这样一个前提：我认为伊朗会爆发革命，IOTOAs将会被推翻。这并不是相反的信念，而是标准看法。我认为这将会发生，这是我的前提。不过，许多人认为伊朗是中东不稳定因素的一部分。
And I do think that there is already an anticipation of the turnover with the ruling parties in Iran. There is already this brewing conflict amongst the other Arab states. So I think that between UAE, Saudi, Qatar, and this fraction in Yemen, and then I don't know if you guys have followed, but there's this kind of emerging independence movement for Somali land, which is kind of north of Somalia, that there may be more conflict brewing in the Middle East than anyone anticipates for this year that will not necessarily involve Israel and or Iran. It will actually be amongst the other Gulf states as they vibe for influence and power and that the contrarian point may in fact be that Iran has been a stabilizing force in that region.
我确实认为伊朗执政党的更迭已经引发了期待。在其他阿拉伯国家之间已经有了酝酿中的冲突。所以，我认为阿联酋、沙特、卡塔尔以及也门的某个派系之间，可能会有比预期中更多的中东冲突，而这些冲突未必涉及以色列或伊朗。其实，这些冲突可能发生在其他海湾国家之间，因为它们在争夺影响力和权力。而与常规观点相反的看法可能是，伊朗实际上在该地区起到了稳定作用。
And by removing Iran and by changing over Iran and they become this kind of independent democratic state, and this particularly is going to be heightened as there's going to be this battle for who's going to take care of the Palestinians as the two-state solution emerges. And what's the role that Jordan's going to have to play versus Egypt versus Saudi? And it's going to lead to a lot of questions about resource allocation. So I think that this year could end up being a little bit nastier than folks anticipate in the Middle East as Iran turns over.
翻译成中文：
通过去掉伊朗的影响并改变伊朗，让其成为一个独立的民主国家，这将特别引发围绕谁将照顾巴勒斯坦人的斗争，随着两国方案的逐步成形，这一问题会更加突出。约旦、埃及和沙特分别会扮演怎样的角色？这将引发很多关于资源分配的问题。所以我认为，随着伊朗的转变，今年中东地区的局势可能会比人们预期的更加紧张。
Saksha got a contrarian belief for 2026. Yes. I said that AI will increase demand for knowledge workers, not decrease it. I would refer you to Aaron Levy's post called Jevons Paradox for Knowledge Workers. And the point of Jevons Paradox is that as the cost of a resource goes down, the aggregate demand for it actually increases because you discover more and more use cases. So I think this will certainly happen with code. In the past it's been very expensive to generate code. If to hire engineers, there's not enough of them. It's an expensive resource. So the amount of software generated in the economy was limited by that.
萨克沙对于2026年持有一个与众不同的观点。是的，我说过，人工智能将增加对知识工作者的需求，而不是减少。我建议你看看亚伦·莱维（Aaron Levy）关于知识工作者的帖子《杰文斯悖论》（Jevons Paradox）。杰文斯悖论的关键在于，当某种资源的成本下降时，总需求实际上会增加，因为会发现更多的使用场景。我认为这肯定会在代码领域发生。过去，生成代码的成本很高。雇佣工程师十分昂贵，而且人才不足，这使得软件在经济中的生成量受到限制。
I think it's going to increase massively now because the cost of generating code is coming down so much. But there's other examples too. You take a field like radiology. That's frequently cited as a profession that AI is going to put out a business. That's not what the data shows. The data shows that the number of radiologists is increasing. Why? Because the number of scans that people want to make is increasing. And it's true that AI can do some of the work, but you still need a doctor to prompt the AI to interpret the AI to validate it. So you get more efficient.
我认为现在这一领域将大幅增长，因为生成代码的成本大大降低了。但还有其他例子。比如放射学这个领域，经常有人说人工智能会取代这个职业。但数据显示事实并非如此。数据显示，放射科医生的数量正在增加。为什么会这样呢？因为人们需要进行的扫描数量在增加。诚然，人工智能可以完成部分工作，但你仍然需要医生来引导、解释和验证人工智能的结果。所以，这使得工作变得更高效。
The cost of scans goes down. And instead of it being a super specialty that happens very rarely that you need like a referral and top of a referral to get, it becomes something that's normalized and everyone starts doing it and you start getting more more scans that leads to better and better outcomes. So I think this can be a lot of those examples through the economy. And we're going to look back and see that the job loss narrative was not only wrong, but we actually got job gains. Okay. And for those of you who on who understand Jevin's paradoxal and more, you can look at something like electricity or steel or concrete.
扫描的成本下降了。这项技术不再是需要多层转诊才能获得的稀有专科服务，而是成为了一种常规操作，大家都开始频繁进行扫描。这种趋势将带来越来越好的结果。我认为这样的例子在经济中会很常见。我们回过头来看，会发现失业的说法不仅是错误的，实际上还创造了更多的就业机会。了解杰文斯悖论的人可以想一想电力、钢铁或者混凝土的发展。
When we lowered the cost of those things, people didn't use less of it. They built skyscrapers. And we had more routes for more airplanes to take you on more vacations. And that went from being something only rich people did to everybody. So Jevin's paradox is definitely at work. What do you got? Jamal, which on what's on your contrarian belief? Gosh, I have two. Well, I'll give you them both. And you can just see my contrarian belief number one is I don't think SpaceX will IPO. I think that it will reverse merge into Tesla.
当我们降低这些东西的成本时，人们并没有因此减少使用。相反，他们建造了摩天大楼，并有了更多航线供飞机带你去度假。这种情况从只有富人才能做到的事情变成了每个人都可以参与的活动。这就是杰文斯悖论的真实表现。那么，你有什么不同寻常的观点呢？贾马尔，说说你的逆向想法吧。天哪，我有两个逆向观点。我就都说出来吧。我的第一个逆向观点是，我不认为SpaceX会进行首次公开募股（IPO）。我认为它会与特斯拉反向合并。
And I think Elon will use it as a moment to consolidate control and power of his two seminal assets into one cap table. Oh my god. I love that. Why? He's talked about that before. He's talked about having a holding company for years of all of the collection you could put Nora Lincoln there too, right, Jamal? You could put in the boring company as well. Sure. I'm just giving you my contrarian take. There will be no IPO for SpaceX. I think it'll just be it specifically will be a reverse merger.
我认为埃隆会利用这个机会，将他的两个重要资产合并到一个资本结构中。我的天啊，我喜欢这个。为什么呢？他以前谈到过，要成立一个控股公司，把他的所有资产放在一起。对吧，Jamal？你甚至可以把Nora Lincoln和无聊公司也放进去。当然。我只是发表一下我与众不同的看法。SpaceX不会进行首次公开募股（IPO），我认为它会通过反向合并来实现。
There you go. So second contrarian take is that I think the central banks will realize that there are limitations to gold and limitations to Bitcoin. And will as a result seek out a completely new cryptographic paradigm that they can control on their balance sheet that is fungible, that is tradable, and that is completely secure and private. And I think the reason why that privacy needs to exist is that for the sovereignty of a country, you need to be in a position where you have assets that are not easily disclosed to anybody else, friends or enemies alike.
好的，第二个与众不同的看法是，我认为各国央行会意识到黄金和比特币的局限性。因此，他们会寻找一种全新的加密货币模式，这种模式可以被他们掌控在资产负债表上，具有可替代性、可交易性，并且完全安全和私密。我认为需要这种私密性的原因在于，一个国家的主权需要确保其资产不会轻易被他人了解到，无论是朋友还是敌人。
And then separately, cryptographically, if you're going to own a currency, you need to hedge against the eventual risk in the next five to 10 years that there's a quantum chip that can challenge the existing cryptographic schemes that are used. And for my contrarian, I was thinking about going with OpenAI, losing their lead and not being the unnumber one company again, because I do think that will be the trend that they will have the they'll continue to give up their market share to other players, including Google and Gemini and XAI, etc. But I'm going to go with a pretty wild card here. I think the standoff with China is going to be largely resolved. And I think President Trump's when he makes his visit there, I don't know if you're going to go on that one, a saxophone. I think it should be included in it, obviously, because of the AI race. I do think that the standoff and the issues around Taiwan are going to be resolved.
然后，从加密的角度来说，如果你要持有一种货币，你需要对接下来五到十年可能出现的量子芯片带来的风险进行对冲，因为这种芯片可能会挑战现有的加密方案。至于我的逆向观点，我原本考虑选择OpenAI失去领军地位，不再是业界头号公司，因为我认为他们会继续将市场份额让给其他竞争者，包括谷歌、Gemini和XAI等。但我决定选择一个比较大胆的预测。我认为与中国的对峙将大部分得到解决。我认为特朗普总统在访问中国时，不知道你是否会用萨克斯风参与其中，当然应该包括在内，因为涉及AI竞赛。我确实认为围绕台湾的对峙和问题将会得到解决。
And I think this could be the signature issue of Trump's second term is that we work out a working relationship where both China and America win without one of us losing. Best performing asset. Best performing asset. Last year's prediction. I said, mag seven, which was up 22% versus the S&P 500 at plus 17. Chamathi were long CDS for a potential run on a major bank. Instead, it was a long shot. Gavin said, hi band with memory makers like Micron, which was up 230%. That was a great call. And Freeberg, you said Chinese tech stocks and ETFs, Ali Bob is up 85% Chinese tech ETF up 47% versus the S&P 500 at plus 17. So I guess that means Gavin Freeberg and then myself. What he got for this year's best performing asset? Freeberg. Paulie market. Paulie market on a tear. Network effects. Replacing media.
我认为，这可能成为特朗普第二任期的标志性问题，即我们要建立一种合作关系，让中美双方在不损害对方的情况下实现双赢。 去年表现最好的资产。去年的预测中，我提到“七大公司”，上涨了22%，而标准普尔500指数上涨了17%。Chamathi当时对大型银行潜在危机时买入了信用违约掉期，尽管这是个长远的投资。Gavin提到高带宽存储器制造商，如美光科技，上涨了230%，这真是一个绝妙的选择。Freeberg 你说中国科技股和ETF，阿里巴巴涨了85%，中国科技ETF涨了47%，而标准普尔500指数上涨了17%。所以我想这意味着Gavin Freeberg，然后是我。那你们认为今年表现最好的资产是什么？Freeberg提到Polymarket，快速崛起，网络效应代替媒体。
Replacing markets. Congrats to Shane. Paulie market. Do you have a best performing asset? Yes. 26. Go ahead, Shema. That would pick a basket of critical metals. Okay. Basket of critical metals. What do you got, Saks? It's got you a little bit redundant from me, but I just had the expanding super cycle and tech. I mean, again, this is just another class of the boom. But actually, let me just show you some data that literally just came out. I feel like this is breaking news. Oh, breaking news. Nick, can you pull this up? US productivity just surged 4.9% the strongest reading in nearly six years. And this is the news item. Is that the Atlanta Fed, their forecast for Q4 GDP just climbed to 5.4%. Can that be right? Yes. Can we get a fact check on that?
替代市场。恭喜Shane。Paulie市场。你有表现最好的资产吗？有。26。继续，Shema。那会选择一篮子关键金属。好的，一篮子关键金属。Saks，你有什么？对我来说可能有点重复，但我只是看到了超级循环和科技的扩展。我是说，这只是又一个繁荣的类别。但其实，让我给你们看一下刚刚发布的一些数据。我觉得这算是突发新闻。哦，突发新闻。Nick，你能把这个调出来吗？美国生产力刚刚飙升了4.9%，是近六年来最强的读数。这是新闻：亚特兰大联储对第四季度GDP的预测刚刚上升到了5.4%。这是真的么？是的。我们能核实一下吗？
Five to six is I think where we're going to see it guys. We're going to see some sixes get printed. I mean, we said, 2020 26 year. You know, GDP now model estimate for real GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2025 is 5.4%. Significant jump from the previous estimate of 2.7% on January 5th. You have to remember that there's going to be 150 basis point correction in Q4 GDP because of the government furlough. Okay. So let's say that GDP was probably call it four. You're going to see a print of two and a half. So you need to readjust that because now all the government workers are back. They're recounted in GDP. If you look through 2026, there's a handful of things that I think people do not understand well.
五到六是我认为我们会看到的水平。我们会看到一些达到六的情况。我是说，我们已经说过，2026年是一个重要的年份。现在模型预测2025年第四季度实际GDP增长为5.4%。这是一个显著的跳跃，之前1月5日的预测是2.7%。你必须记住，由于政府暂停的原因，第四季度的GDP会有150个基点的调整。好吧，所以可以说GDP大约是4%，但你会看到报告出来是2.5%。所以需要重新调整，因为现在所有的政府员工都回来了，他们在GDP中重新被计算。如果你看整个2026年，有一些事情我认为人们了解得不够清楚。
Number one, all of non-farm payrolls has been completely reset and rebased. And the reason why is because of immigration. So what used to be 100 to 150 number print is now a 40 to 50 number print. Why is that important? Because when you look through earnings and you look at the lower 25% quartiles of earnings growth, they're off the charts. There's all of these anecdotal examples now of earnings just exceeding expectations. There was an article in the front page of the Wall Street Journal yesterday about Ford trying to pay mechanics $160,000 a year and having 5,000 openings. So to Sachs's point, we are a coiled spring closing the border plus adding productivity lifts through AI and other things have created a growth dynamic in the United States that will really start to show itself in 26.
首先，所有的非农就业数据已经完全重置和重新基准化。原因是移民的影响。以前的就业增长数据为100到150，如今调整为40到50。为什么这很重要？因为当你查看收入情况，尤其是收入增长最低的25%时，它们的增长非常惊人。现在有很多例子表明，收入增长超出了预期。昨天《华尔街日报》的头版就有一篇文章，讲述了福特公司试图以每年16万美元的薪水聘请技工，但却有5,000个职位空缺。正如萨克斯所指出的，我们正处于如同压缩的弹簧一般的状态，关闭边境，加上通过人工智能等手段提升生产力，已经在美国创造了一种增长趋势，这种趋势将在2026年真正显现出来。
So I think that you should be not short to U.S. economy here. It is ready to rip. And adding to all that and just giving my pick, I think if we are in a rate cut environment and the tailwinds keep happening and people have a little bit of cash laying around my pick for best performing asset will be the Robin Hood Polymarket price picks gambling, wagering, that's a case because people will be able to have a little cash around to make some bet. By going missing there too, I guess. By the way, the oral area to what we just talked about, if you see five and a half and six and a half prints and these employment numbers, a lot of this affordability stuff may be not as accurate as we think it is.
我认为你不应该低估美国经济。它已经准备好腾飞了。在这个基础上，我来分享我的见解：如果我们处于降息环境，顺风因素持续存在，而且人们手头上有一些闲钱，那么我认为表现最好的资产将会是Robinhood、Polymarket这些与赌博、押注相关的价格选择。因为人们会有一些现金可以用来下注。不过，我也许有些遗漏。此外，关于我们刚才讨论的内容，如果你看到5.5和6.5这些就业数据，很多关于可负担性的看法可能并不像我们想的那样准确。
Everybody right now is trying to figure out, okay, well, where are the pockets of unaffordability and there are clearly some, but those are narrow and they can be fixed. But on a broad base basis, what SAC says is right, you have this combination of earnings growth, productivity growth, and now this overlay where you have these tax cuts that are going to hit in 26. My gosh, I mean asset prices in general, I think will do well.
目前，大家都在努力弄清楚哪些地方存在难以负担的情况，确实有一些地方是这样的，但这些情况是具体的、并可以解决的。总体而言，SAC的观点是正确的：你有收入增长、生产力增长，再加上将在2026年实施的减税措施。天呐，我认为总体而言，资产价格表现会不错。
Now, you'll also see potentially home prices correct because if the president is successful in making sure Blackstone can buy houses, but on the other side, people are earning more and they can enter with interest rates that are now 100 to 150 basis points lower, you'll see a boom in housing where it's not the corporations that are buying the houses but individuals. There's a lot of variables here that can break in America's favor. This is why I think 6% is not unrealistic, which would be absolutely nuts.
现在，您可能会看到房价有可能调整，因为如果总统成功确保像黑石这样的公司能够购买住房，但另一方面，人们赚更多的钱，并且可以以低100到150个基点的利率买房，那么您会看到住房市场的繁荣，这时购房者不是公司而是个人。有很多因素可能对美国有利。这就是为什么我认为6%并不是不切实际的，如果实现，那将是非常惊人的。
Okay, let's move on to the worst performing asset. Last year's predictions for worst performing asset of 2025. I said legacy car companies and real estate, both of those turned out to be correct. Tchaikovsky said enterprise SAC and the software industrial complex again that looked correct as well. Gavin said enterprise SAC and Freeberg used that vertical SAC. So we had three SACs and I had legacy car companies real estate.
好的，那我们来谈谈表现最差的资产。对于2025年表现最差的资产，去年的预测是这样的：我提到了传统汽车公司和房地产，这两个预测都证明是正确的。柴可夫斯基提到了企业SAC和软件工业综合体，这个预测同样也被证明是正确的。加文预测的是企业SAC，而弗里伯格提到的是垂直SAC。所以我们有三个SAC，我则是预测了传统汽车公司和房地产。
Let me give you a shake out. Let me just give you some numbers on that to show you service now down 30% worked day down 18%, docu signed down 23%, drop box down 9% and box down 6% while the S&P was up 17%. I think it's worth highlighting. It was a challenging year for this enterprise aspect. Especially with the per-seat pricing as opposed to consumption-based pricing. If you have a static number of employees or less employees like many of these companies do, there's just less seats to sell.
让我给你解释一下情况。我来提供一些数据给你看，ServiceNow下跌了30%，Workday下跌了18%，DocuSign下跌了23%，Dropbox下跌了9%，而Box下跌了6%，与此同时，标准普尔500指数却上涨了17%。我认为值得强调的是，这对于企业软件领域来说是充满挑战的一年。尤其是在按每个座位定价而不是基于使用量定价的情况下。如果你像这些公司一样员工数量恒定或者减少，就没有那么多座位可以出售。
So their whole growth was based on land and expand. You land the client and then you expand the client because they're added staff. If you're not adding staff, you don't have more people using Salesforce. Okay. So let's talk about our worst performing asset predictions for 2026. Who do you got? SACs worst performing asset of 2026. Well, I just said California luxury real estate because of the overhang of the wealth tax and all the things we're talking about.
他们的整体增长策略就是“获取客户并扩展业务”。你先获取一个客户，然后通过客户增加员工来扩展业务。如果没有增加员工，就没有更多的人使用Salesforce。好的，现在来谈谈我们对2026年表现最差资产的预测。你有什么看法？认为2026年表现最差的资产是什么？我刚提到的是加州的豪华房地产，因为受到财富税以及我们提到的各种因素的影响。
Yeah. That one hits close to how I think. Now, yes, it does. Actually, what I'm hoping for is a dead cat bounce. If you guys are right that the ballot initiative fails, then the overhang will be lifted and maybe I can clear some real estate. There's some. It's not easy being right sometimes. Freeberg, what do you got? What's your discount price on that asset right now? I mean, I might make a bid. If you give me a good clear amount of $100 million laying around.
好的。这段话很接近我的想法。现在，是的，确实如此。其实，我希望能有一个“死猫反弹”。如果你们的判断正确，投票提案失败了，那么压力就会解除，也许我能处理掉一些房地产。有一些。 有时候做对也不容易。Freeberg，你呢？你现在对那个资产的折扣价是多少？我的意思是，我可能会出个价。如果你能给我一个清晰的金额，比如说，手头有1亿美元。
Yeah, I'm not paying a hundred. Okay. We got best negotiations. Give him the bestie price. The buy it now, bestie price. It's the buy. No, no, no. Okay. By the way, you know, San Francisco has that insane luxury tax, which they have in L.A. too. You got to pay 5% on any piece of real estate over. Which makes it even harder for the high end places to try.
好的，我不打算花一百块。我们会进行最佳谈判，给他最优惠的价格。这是现在购买的朋友价，不，不，不。顺便说一下，你知道旧金山有那种疯狂的奢侈税，洛杉矶也是这样。任何超过一定价格的房地产都必须支付5%的税。这让高端房产的销售变得更加困难。
So, wait, you're saying if I bought taxes house for a hundred, I'd have to spend a hundred and six. Oh, he has to pay six percent. Yeah. To the day, you got to pay your broker six percent. I mean, they're just basically freezing the market. Okay. Not the buyer. Well, you can negotiate who pays it. The 5%, you know, quote, unquote, mansion tax has just killed L.A. real estate. You talk to brokers down there.
所以，等一下，你是说如果我买了一栋价值一百的房子，我得花一百零六。哦，他得支付6%的费用。是的，今天你得支付给经纪人6%的费用。我的意思是，他们基本上是在冻结市场。好吧，不是买家。你可以协商谁来支付这笔费用。所谓的5%“豪宅税”基本上扼杀了洛杉矶的房地产市场。你可以问问那里的经纪人。
Because people used to flip houses a lot more. Now you just can't afford to do that. Unintended consequences. Really bad for the market. What you're telling me taxes slow down transaction volume and reduce the growth of the economy. That's great. There's no idea. So if you should write that down, we should do a whole thing on that.
因为过去人们进行房地产买卖交易要频繁得多。现在你已经负担不起这样做了。这带来了意想不到的后果，对市场非常不利。你告诉我，税收的确减缓了交易量，并抑制了经济增长。这太好了。看来没有人关注过这一点。所以你应该记下来，我们应该就这个问题专门研究一下。
Yeah, maybe we should write that down. I know. Yeah. Somebody make a note. Yeah. So worse performing asset, Chimoff. What do you think? Worst performing asset. I won't say the worst performing, but I think a very poor performing asset will be hydrocarbons. I just think that the trend in oil is inexorable. And it's down.
是的，也许我们应该记下来。我知道。有谁做个记录吧。关于表现最差的资产，Chimoff，你怎么看？表现最差的资产。我不会说是表现最差的，但我觉得表现很差的资产会是碳氢化合物。我只是觉得油价的趋势不可阻挡，并且是向下的。
And the reason it's down is irrespective of your thoughts on climate change. The trends on electrification and energy storage are just unstoppable. And so what that does is it shrinks the surface area where oil is useful. It's not like a cataclysmic thing, but it's sort of a melting iceberg where does it see $65 or $45? And I would say on a per barrel basis. I think it's more likely to see $45 than $65.
这一趋势的下降无关你对气候变化的看法。电气化和储能的发展趋势是不可阻挡的。这会导致石油的使用范围逐渐缩小。并不是灾难性的变化，而更像是一座正在融化的冰山。在油价方面，是65美元还是45美元呢？我倾向于认为每桶价格更有可能看到45美元，而不是65美元。
Okay. I went with the US dollar in different permutations of how you can buy it because our debt continues to grow unabated. And the displacement trade, Jake, Jake, I just think it's going to be hard for the USD because we're talking about we've been added. I think we're going to add two trillion in debt this year. And then if we're increasing, and again, I know Trump says, President Trump says a lot of things, but if we're increasing the military budget by 50%, that means that's going to be straight to our debt line. So it's going to be harder and harder for the dollar. It doesn't mean that America's not going to do great, but the value of the American dollar is going to be challenged, which we see in people moving to gold and silver. And perhaps copper.
好的。我选择了以不同方式购买美元，因为我们的债务在持续增长。而这种转移交易，杰克，杰克，我只是觉得对于美元来说会比较困难，因为我们在不断增加债务。我认为今年我们将新增两万亿美元的债务。如果我们增加军费预算50%，那么这直接意味着我们的债务会增加。所以对美元来说会越来越艰难。这并不意味着美国不会表现良好，而是美元的价值将面临挑战，正如我们看到越来越多的人转向黄金和白银，也可能还有铜。
Okay. If you could give us your worst performing asset in 2026, it would be Netflix. If they don't close the Warner Brother deal, I do think Netflix's service is being challenged from all sides with deep content libraries. And I think we're seeing a great commoditization happening. I've also heard directly from folks in Hollywood, the creators of new content that people would prefer not to work with Netflix. They only pay creators cost plus 10% now. And so as a creator, you're actually better off not doing deals with Netflix anymore. So their content library is going to shrink because of the natural economic forces underway. Alternative, if they do close on Warner Brothers, I think they've got some good runway in terms of that content library. And they'll be fine.
好的。如果你要问我们2026年表现最差的资产，那可能是Netflix。如果他们没有完成与华纳兄弟的交易，我确实认为Netflix的服务正面临来自各方深厚内容库的挑战。我认为我们正在看到一种巨大的商品化趋势。我也从好莱坞的人那儿听说，新内容的创作者更不愿与Netflix合作。他们现在只支付创作者成本加10%的费用。所以，作为创作者，与Netflix合作已不再划算。因此，由于自然的经济力量，他们的内容库将会缩水。另一方面，如果他们成功与华纳兄弟达成交易，我认为他们在内容库方面会有不错的发展前景，他们会没问题的。
And in that case, my worst performing asset would be traditional media stocks. And I do think that they're going to underperform. There is just such an incredible variety of high-quality content that's emerging from independent creators that are leveraging their own distribution platforms through YouTube and others. And I think that traditional media is going to continue to be deeply challenged. As we've seen, for example, just in the news segment with the rise of citizen journalism. So that's what I would kind of.
在这种情况下，我表现最差的资产可能是传统媒体股票。我确实认为它们会表现不佳。因为现在有大量高质量的内容正在从独立创作者那里涌现出来，他们通过 YouTube 等平台进行分发。我认为传统媒体将继续面临巨大挑战。比如在新闻领域，我们已经看到公民新闻的兴起。因此，这是我的看法。
Yeah. And you know, the Netflix observation, I think, is well founded because they're also in terms of expanding their library. They just did a deal with Bill Simmons, I see. And with our civil sports to move over with their sports shows, podcasts, video shows from YouTube. And they're going to take them off YouTube and put them on Netflix exclusively. So that's a really interesting trend as well to keep an eye on.
是的。我觉得关于Netflix的观察是有道理的，因为他们也一直在扩展自己的内容库。我看到他们刚刚与比尔·西蒙斯达成了一项协议，与我们的Civil Sports合作，将他们的体育节目、播客和视频节目从YouTube转移到Netflix独家播放。这也是一个值得关注的有趣趋势。
Okay. By the way, before we move off asset, just on best performing asset, there's one category we didn't talk about. But I think it's kind of interesting, which is the category of assets that qualify for accelerated appreciation. Capital. Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes. That includes things like planes. So forth, there's now 100% accelerated appreciation for certain kinds of capital equipment, because of the big, beautiful bill. And you know, it kind of goes along with some of the tax cuts that we talked about. But man, that is making those markets super hot right now. Absolutely.
好的。顺便说一下，在我们结束关于资产的讨论之前，有一个类别我们还没提到，但我觉得挺有趣的，那就是符合加速贬值的资产类别。是的，没错，这包括像飞机这样的东西。由于一项大型法案，现在某些类型的资本设备可以享受100%的加速贬值。这与我们之前谈到的一些税收减免相辅相成。这种政策真是让这些市场变得非常火爆。确实如此。
Yeah. Try buying a plainly status. Very difficult. P P. No, Jason, it's not planes. It's like caterpillar. No, it's like tractors. Yeah. Yeah. It's generators. It's Siemens. This is why Siemens stock is through the roof. All of this capital equipment, you get to write it off 100% in year one. It's creating a massive infrastructure build out in the US. So there's some companies that are huge beneficiaries of this obviously, because they're the sellers of the capital equipment. And of course, this is one of the reasons GDP is going up as people are actually investing in business again.
是的，试着购买一个简单的地位。非常困难。P P。不，Jason，这不是飞机。这像是毛毛虫。不，这像是拖拉机。对，对。是发电机。是西门子。这就是为什么西门子股票飞涨的原因。所有这些资本设备在第一年可以100%抵扣。这正在美国形成一个巨大的基础设施建设。因此，有些公司显然是这方面的巨大受益者，因为他们是资本设备的销售者。当然，这也是GDP上升的原因之一，因为人们开始重新投资于商业。
Okay. Most anticipated trend. By the way, this is the coral area of the statement that if you reduce taxes, the economy grows. So there we go. Yeah. Most anticipated trend of 2025. I said the wrath of LinaCon ending and M&A and IPOs being back. You get some credit there at Schumacht. You said the end of the deep state. I think you get a lot of credit there. Gavin said AI makes more progress per quarter 2025 than it did in 2023. That's a great one. Friber, you said the nuclear power build out. I think you get some credit there too.
好的。最受期待的趋势。顺便提一下，这是关于“降低税收可以促进经济增长”观点中的核心部分。好的，我们继续。2025年最受期待的趋势。我说的是LinaCon的影响结束，以及并购和IPO的回归。Schumacht，你提到了“深层国家”终结，我认为这一点也值得夸奖。Gavin说2025年每个季度的AI进步超过2023年的水平，这个预测很不错。Friber，你说的是核能建设加速，这个也值得赞扬。
Yeah. Not sure. Not sure. We got some work to do there. Massively. We definitely saw some short nuclear. You're still short nuclear. But I know that's a lot of how it let Nick. I talked to him. I talked to Howard. Let Nick as well. He said he's all in on nuclear. Friber, can I tell you why I'm short nuclear? I think that we're in the very delicate part of the cycle where they've missed the window. So by the time that they deliver working SMRs at scale, the problem is that the marginal cost of electricity will effectively be zero.
好的。不确定。不确定。我们在这方面还有很多工作要做，确实如此。我们确实看到了一些关于核电的短缺。你仍然对核电持怀疑态度。但我知道这在某种程度上影响了尼克。我和他谈过。我也和霍华德谈过。他们都表示全力支持核电。弗里伯，可以告诉你我为什么对核电持怀疑态度吗？我认为我们正处于一个非常微妙的周期，他们错过了机会窗口。因此，到他们能够大规模交付可行的小型模块化反应堆时，问题是电力的边际成本可能实际上会降为零。
And it will have gone to zero because of a combination of solar and storage as well as coal and oil. And so it's just in a very delicate place where the large form factor nuclear reactors make zero economic sense by 2032 or 2035, which is when through the Byzantine permitting and building they get it done. And then the SMRs by the time that they get it done, they may not be able to meet the market either. So I think it's a very complicated moment for nuclear actually. Not scientifically, economically. Just does not hang together mathematically. I think that's if you assume no shift in the demand curve.
这将归零，因为太阳能和储能技术与煤炭和石油的结合，使得核能不再具有经济意义。到2032年或2035年，当这些大型核反应堆经过繁复的许可和建设流程完成时，其经济效益已不复存在。到那时，即便是小型模块化反应堆（SMRs）也可能无法满足市场需求。所以我认为这是核能面临的一个非常复杂的时刻，并非科学上的复杂，而是经济上的复杂。从数学上讲，这经济上无从说通。我认为这还是基于假设需求曲线不变的前提。
And I think that like if you look at China going to eight terawatts of production and by 2040 or whatever it is. And we're sitting at one and we're not moving. We are going to have a big catch up to do. And the question is can we really build out two three terawatts of electricity generation? How are we going to build out two to three terawatts of electricity generation? The amount of land that you would need with solar and what's it going to take to get all of that installed and so on.
我认为，如果你看看中国到2040年左右实现8太瓦的电力生产，而我们目前只有1太瓦且没有增长的话，我们就需要大幅赶超。问题在于，我们能真正建设出2到3太瓦的发电能力吗？我们要如何建造出这两到三太瓦的电力生产？如果使用太阳能发电，需要多少土地？要安装这一切需要付出什么努力等等。
And by the way, there's a lot of this stuff in China. If you look at all the big solar buildouts that they did where they're ripping it up now, this is a longer conversation. But I really do question whether we can pin everything on solar. It's going to be a mix of stuff. And so your point may be right that in the near term to meet the current kind of demand curve, nuclear is going to be economically challenged. But at some point here, there's an inflection that we have to meet.
顺便说一下，中国有很多这样的事情。如果你看看他们之前大规模建设的太阳能项目，现在又在拆除了。这是一个需要长时间讨论的话题。但我真的质疑我们是否可以完全依赖太阳能。未来的能源结构将是多元化的。正如你所说的，从短期来看，为了满足现有的需求曲线，核能在经济上会面临挑战。但在某个时刻，我们必须迎接一个关键的转折点。
So what's your most anticipated trend of 2026, Iran becoming an independent democratic state? I think I'm just speaking generally anticipated. I think a lot of people are anticipating that that's going to happen this year. There's an uprising in the streets. There is a weakening of the Iatolas and there seems to be a moment underway. And the demographics are destiny. There's a lot of young people in Iran and they do not want to live under the current rule. They want to be free.
那么，你对2026年最期待的趋势是什么？伊朗成为一个独立的民主国家？我只是泛泛地说说人们期待的事情。许多人认为这有可能会在今年发生。街头出现了起义，伊斯兰领袖的统治似乎在削弱，时机似乎已经来临。而且，人口结构决定未来。伊朗有很多年轻人，他们不想在当前的统治下生活，他们想要自由。
But there is a major economic problem in Iran in terms of affordability. You think we have an issue of affordability in the US. In Iran, it's very hard for people just to buy their basic necessities, basic needs, and the majority of people. So that's why they are taking to the street. There is a real economic crisis underway that is motivating this turnover. Every year, everyone like anticipates some big change in the Middle East. But this could be the biggest rewriting of the Middle East in a long time.
但伊朗存在一个重大的经济问题，那就是人们的支付能力。如果你认为美国的支付能力问题严重，那在伊朗，人们光是买基本生活必需品就很困难，对于大部分人来说都是如此。这就是为什么他们走上街头的原因。正是这种实实在在的经济危机推动了这种变革。每年，人们都期待中东会有一些重大变化，但这次可能是中东局势多年来最大的改写。
Okay. Sax, what do you got? For the category? Most anticipated trend of 2026. What do you got, Sax? I said auditing government spending at all levels. That's a good one. Decentralized, lov, yes. Let a thousand Nick Shirley's bloom. Love. Let's do it. Audit everything. Audit everything. We use a normalized independent audit across the board. With sort of lowers. Let's go.
好的。Sax，你有什么想法？关于2026年最受期待的趋势这个类别。Sax，你有什么建议？我提议对各级政府支出进行审计。这个建议不错。去中心化，没错，让无数的Nick Shirley诞生。太棒了，行动起来吧。对一切进行审计。对一切进行审计。我们使用统一的独立审计。这样可以在某种程度上降低风险。让我们开始吧。
It is not acceptable for Gavin News, for example, to prohibit audits as he did with homeless spending. All government spending needs to be opened up and audited by the public. We need to see where it's going. That's just got to happen. Love it. Pentagon. When are they going to pass it on? That's one of our biggest line items. Let's get them to be audited. There's something President Trump could do. They're actually at least try. They're at least failing the audit. They're at least failing you.
例如，加文·纽森禁止对无家可归者的开支进行审计是不可接受的。所有政府开支都需要向公众公开并接受审计。我们需要知道这些钱花到了哪里，这是必须要做到的。我对此表示赞同。比如五角大楼，他们什么时候才能通过审计？这是我们最大的开支项目之一。我们应该要求他们接受审计。这是特朗普总统可以做的事情，至少他可以尝试一下。他们至少在审计方面不合格，这意味着他们在辜负公众。
Gavin News is prohibiting the audit. Star war, you're prohibiting them first. How about that? Yeah. I mean, just audit everything. I think would be, I love it. What do you got you? I have a corollary to freebergs, which is I think it's the expansion of this Trump doctrine independent of your politics. If you are an economic actor, you own a business, you invest in the stock market, whatever it is, you speculate cryptocurrencies. You must understand the movements on the chess board in 2026.
加文新闻正在禁止审计。星球大战，你是先禁止他们。怎么样？是啊，我的意思是，就审计一切。我会喜欢这样的方式。你有什么想法？我有一个与Freeberg观点相关的看法，我认为这像是一种特朗普主义的扩展，不涉及政治立场。如果你是一个经济参与者，无论是拥有企业、投资股市，还是炒作加密货币，你必须理解2026年棋盘上的动向。
The best framework that I have used to organize myself is this idea of unilateralism, economic resilience. It's just a ginormous trend. I think the output of it is going to be massive GDP prints on top of everything else. I think I'm going to stick with my last year's prediction going into 2026 again. The wrath of Wiener Khan ending, we saw the M&A train start with Brock, obviously Netflix and Warner Brothers, Google and Wiz.
我用来管理自己的最佳框架是单边主义和经济韧性这个想法。这是一股巨大的潮流。我认为它的结果将带来巨大的GDP增长。我计划继续坚持我去年的预测，直到2026年。维纳汗的“怒火”即将结束，我们看到并购浪潮开始，明显的例子包括Brock，以及Netflix和华纳兄弟、谷歌和Wiz的合并。
So many deals are ready to be done and they're starting to pop off in M&A. We can debate what structure they are and regulators, etc. But they're happening. But I'll go with IPOs coming back. Right now, you've got to anticipate one of the following two will file SpaceX, Andrewl Streip and Gropick and OpenAI. I think two of those file and it is going to be gangbusters. The public wants these shares. They're buying them in the secondary markets.
许多交易已经准备就绪，并且它们正在并购中崭露头角。我们可以讨论它们的结构和监管问题等，但交易确实在进行。不过，我认为首次公开募股（IPO）会重新回归。现在，你必须预期以下三个中的任何两个会提交申请：SpaceX、Andrewl Streip 和 Gropick 以及 OpenAI。我认为其中两个会提交申请，并将会非常火爆。公众对这些股票充满期待，他们正在二级市场购买它们。
We have half as many publicly traded companies. The public would like to participate. And this is something Trump can uniquely do that. The Democrats were trying to stop and slow down, which was M&A and IPOs. I think this will be the year of the mega IPOs can be very exciting for Silicon Valley. It's going to be very exciting for the employees at these companies and for the pension funds and the endowments that own shares in these companies. They're going to be able to take that money and put it to good use. Hopefully so SpaceX, Andrewl Streip and Gropick, OpenAI. Those are on the short list, obviously, of ones that could go public this year.
我们现在的上市公司数量减少了一半。公众希望能够参与其中，而这是特朗普有独特能力去实现的事情。民主党一直在试图阻止或减缓并购和首次公开募股（IPO）的进程。我认为今年会是"大型IPO年"，这对硅谷来说将会非常激动人心。这对这些公司里的员工、持有公司股份的养老金和捐赠基金来说也是令人期待的。他们将能够使用这些资金来达到更好的效用。希望SpaceX、Andrewl Streip 和 Gropick、OpenAI等公司今年能够上市。
All right, fun one we like to do is the most anticipated media. That's a fun one, you know. What are you looking forward to in 2026? Last year, I said Superman and Andorra season two. Turns out, Superman did great and or did amazing. It's the best TV show of the 21st century, I think. Timothy said, enormity of the files that will be declassified, Epstein files. Halfway there, JFK files. We haven't seen those. Gavin said, 1923, season two, I don't even know what that is, but okay. That's a trailer. That's a trailer. Oh, that's the trailer one. Yeah. Yeah. Watch a man, man, man, that's pretty great.
好的，我们喜欢做的一个有趣的话题是最受期待的媒体。这是个很有意思的话题。你期待2026年会有什么？去年，我说是《超人》和《安道尔》第二季。结果，《超人》表现出色，而《安道尔》的表现简直惊艳。我觉得它是21世纪最好的电视剧。蒂莫西说，他期待着那些待解密的文件的规模，比如爱泼斯坦的文件。已经解密了一半，肯尼迪的资料我们还没见到。加文说他期待《1923》第二季，我甚至不知道那是什么，不过好吧。那是一个预告片。哦，那是预告片的那个。是啊，看着真是相当精彩。
I'm not afraid of you said, AI video games. What do you got this year? Freeberg, you love the media. You're a cinephile. What are you looking forward to in media in 2026? This isn't as much as what I'm looking forward to, but I do think the big trend in media is going to be this citizen journalism doing expose. I think that we're just at the beginning of the expose man on the street, man on the street, pushing stuff, getting cameras and people's faces. The work of journalism has been decentralized. And I think there's going to be so much more that's going to be kind of shared and covered this year.
“我不怕你说的那些，AI电子游戏。今年你有什么新花样？Freeberg，你很喜欢媒体，是个影迷。你对2026年的媒体有什么期待？这不是我真正期待的东西，但我认为媒体领域的大趋势将是公民新闻进行的揭露报道。我觉得我们刚刚开始看到这种揭露型的街头调查，拿着摄像机近距离采访人们的现象。新闻工作的去中心化已经开始，我认为今年会有更多这样的内容被分享和报道。”
Okay. Do you have one? By the way, the difference I would say in terms of what Nick Shirley's doing and what we've seen maybe in the past, but it's going to be the new trend, is much of the citizen journalism in the past has been to some degree a little bit more passive. It's sort of like, hey, I caught this thing and I observed it. But now there are people that are going to actively take a camera and say, hey, I'm going to go discover this thing. I'm going to go deep on it. And that's what I think we're going to see happen in a big way this year.
好的。你有一个吗？顺便说一下，我觉得尼克·雪莉正在做的事情和我们过去看到的一些有所不同，但这将成为一种新趋势。过去的公民新闻报道在某种程度上比较被动，更像是“嘿，我偶然捕捉到了这个，我观察到了这个”。但是现在有些人会主动拿起相机，说“嘿，我要去发现这个东西，我要深入挖掘它”。我认为今年我们会大规模看到这种变化。
Well, and there's a monetization path. You have substack where people can give donations, go fund me and top of that YouTube, allowing you and X, allowing you to share revenue on this particular category, which they previously did. And as Nick Shirley pointed out, means there is a path to profitability there. Get more clicks, get more views. You make more money and then you can reinvest it. So I think I like your choice a lot. Tomat, do you have something you're anticipating?
好的，这里有一个盈利的途径。你可以通过 Substack 接受捐款，利用 GoFundMe，再加上 YouTube 允许你们在特定类别中共享收入的平台，还有 X。正如 Nick Shirley 所指出的，这意味着确实存在盈利的途径。得到更多的点击和浏览量，这样你就能赚到更多的钱，然后可以再投资。所以我很喜欢你的选择。Tomat，你有什么期待的吗？
Exactly. Exactly. Same thing as freeberg. I'll just double down and okay. And what about you, Zach? So you got something you want to double down on investigative journalism. No, I thought we were talking about entertainment here. Well, it's okay. These guys, these guys, these guys, zigged where we zagged, but one of my weird, like things that I watch on TikTok that I got stuck on and TikTok just keeps showing me them is these auditing videos. Have you guys ever seen these first, first amendment auditors?
好的，翻译如下：
没错。没错。跟Freeberg说的一样。我会加倍努力，好吧。那么，Zach，你呢？有没有什么事情是你想投入更多的，比如调查性新闻？不，我以为我们在谈娱乐呢。没事的，这些人做了一些我们没做的事，不过我在TikTok上看的一些奇怪视频让我很入迷，TikTok一直给我推荐这些视频，就是那些审计类的视频。你们有没有看过这些"第一修正案审计员"的视频？
So these are people who take a camera. They stand on the street and they just point the camera into someone's store or into a bank's window. Oh, I see. And they just film the people in the bank. Yes. And then they wind up spraying each other. There's always people that come out. They're like, you can't do that. You're not allowed to do that. They're like, okay, I think I would like you to leave. I don't want to talk to you. And they just do this and they instigate people to call the police. And what they're doing is they're auditing whether the police understand first amendment rights.
这些人拿着摄像机。他们站在街上，把摄像机对准某人的商店或者银行的窗户。哦，我明白了，他们就是拍摄银行里的人。对的，然后他们最终会互相起冲突。总会有人走出来说：“你不能这么做。你这样做是不被允许的。”他们就会说：“好吧，我觉得你该离开了。我不想和你谈。”他们这样做是为了引起人们报警。他们这么做是想测试警察是否了解第一修正案的权利。
And then how the police react is basically the end of the video. Sometimes the police are like, you can't do that. And they're like, yes, I can't call a supervisor. And then they teach the police officer that you're allowed to stand in public places and film. Otherwise, they're just like, hey, they go to the business owner and they tell the business owner, this guy's allowed to do this, leave him alone. I don't know why these videos are so entertaining. They're, they're, they're, there's a lot of tension there.
然后，警察的反应基本上就是视频的结尾。有时候，警察会说：“你不能这样做。”而他们则会回击：“我可以，叫你的上级来。”接着，他们教警察，在公共场所拍摄是被允许的。其他时候，警察会直接去找店主，告诉店主：“这个人可以这样做，别管他。”我也不知道为什么这些视频这么有趣，它们充满了紧张感。
And there's something. So much speech, which is the first amendment for the reason or the store owner comes out sometimes tries to physically confront the guy. But then you'll have like a woman walking with her like two-year-old child and then she'll get into it and she'll be like, hey, don't violate his constitution. Exactly. Exactly. That's the best. Exactly. Yeah. It's so good. You never know what's going to happen. Each one of them is like a whole new adventure.
这段话可以翻译为：
有件事让人印象深刻。因为第一修正案保障言论自由，所以有时候店主会出来试图与人发生肢体冲突。但有时你会看到，比如一个女人带着她两岁的孩子路过，她会介入这个争论，说：“嘿，不要侵犯他的宪法权利。”没错，就是这样。这是最好的部分。你永远不知道会发生什么，每次争论就像是一场全新的冒险。
Yeah. I don't know why it's such an interesting form of content. I like love it. It's uniquely American phenomenon to, yeah, establish your free to your first amendment rights and they even go into like the really dicey ones where they go to like the parking lot of a prison or into the lobby of a police station and do it and it gets pretty spicy. What do you got, actually, you got any media you're looking forward to and these guys are going first amendment investigative journalism, Yadiata.
是的。我也不知道为什么这种内容形式这么有趣。我真的很喜欢。这是一种独特的美国现象，可以说是行使你的第一修正案权利的途径。他们甚至会去一些比较敏感的地方，比如监狱外的停车场或者警察局的大厅里去做这些事情，情节变得相当刺激。你呢？你有没有什么期待的媒体内容？这些人正在做第一修正案调查新闻之类的事情。
What do you that said? Well, the new Christopher Nolan movie is coming out. The Odyssey looks interesting. Great call. Great call. Yeah. That's mine. Great call. What is it? What is it? What is that? What is that about? The Odyssey? Come on. No, Homer's Odyssey. Yes, but as interpreted by the great director of our time, Christopher Nolan, have any of you idiots actually read the Odyssey?
你在说什么？哦，新的克里斯托弗·诺兰电影要上映了。《奥德赛》看起来很有趣。好主意，好主意。对，就是这个。好主意。那是什么？那是什么？《奥德赛》吗？拜托，不是荷马的《奥德赛》。对，是的，但这是由当代伟大导演克里斯托弗·诺兰重新诠释的。你们这些家伙有谁真正读过《奥德赛》吗？
This is not great. I'm sorry, but the Odyssey is a terrible book. All right. Okay, so we're going to get some good comments there. You guys are all such wannabe poser intellectual. No, just Christopher Nolan is just great. It's iMacs. It's going to be epic. It's trash. That book is left. Okay. You know, you know, like I am big pentameter. So the idea of some confused person making a movie about it is also just like, how do I short that? Okay, that is actually. Can I short that? Can I short that movie? I'm on a polymarket. I'm sure there will be. Okay, but on the bet on the box office. Polaroid. I bet zero. Okay. It's not going to be a lot more than zero. I'm sure.
这不太好。我很抱歉，但《奥德赛》是一本很糟糕的书。好吧。好吧，所以我们去看看一些好评论。你们真是一群爱装知识分子的家伙。不，不是这样的，克里斯托弗·诺兰真的很棒。用iMax放映，会很震撼。那书很糟，你知道吧。就像我随口说的诗韵律一样，所以有些人胡乱拍个电影出来，也感觉很困惑，我能对这部电影做空吗？我在某个市场上，我肯定会，好的，但在票房下注。宝丽来相机。我赌零票房。好吧，我相信不会太多票房的。
I'm also a big fan of Timothy Shalabay and Doom Part Three is coming out. I also like Avengers Doomsday. Doom Three. And who I love Doom. Doom Part Three is coming out. I love Doom. I wanted to. So so much. Two was great. I think one was a little bit of slow. I love the two. Doom say we good. Do say actually I go with that. Avengers Doomsday is going to be I think fantastic. Robert Down Jr. As Dr. Doom setting up secret wars and then you going to tie up all the previous Marvel strings.
我也是提摩西·查拉梅的超级粉丝，而且《沙丘》第三部就要上映了。我还喜欢《复仇者：末日》。《沙丘》第三部，我真的很喜欢《沙丘》，第三部要上映了，我很期待。《沙丘》第二部也很棒，我觉得第一部有点儿慢。我特别喜欢第二部。可以说《沙丘》真不错。我想去看。至于《复仇者：末日》，我觉得会非常精彩。小罗伯特·唐尼饰演毁灭博士，会引出《秘密战争》，然后把之前所有的漫威故事线都串联起来。
Oh, look at look at look at the Odyssey zero. They're going to use they're going to use Doomsday to bring back all the characters they killed. Hey, Abasties. Here's a little something. I think we're about to hit today. One million YouTube subscribers before we do our Netflix deal and take the show off of YouTube. We hit a million. What's it supposed to happen? Like a year and a half ago. We're going to have like a million subscriber party a year and a half ago. You know, ask me what I think you. Tell me why. Tell me why sex. Because we never tell our subscribers to hit the like button or smash the subscribe button yeah every other podcast I watch on YouTube and I watch them all.
哦，看哪看哪看哪《奥德赛零》。他们打算用末日来复活所有他们杀掉的角色。嘿，Abasties，这有个消息。今天我们可能就要达到一百万YouTube订阅用户了，我们还没和Netflix签约，把节目从YouTube上撤掉之前就会达到这个数字。我们达到了一百万。这个本应该在大约一年半前发生。我们那时本应该庆祝一百万订阅用户派对。你问我为什么，我告诉你为什么。因为我们从来没有让我们的订阅者点击赞或者猛烈地点击订阅按钮。是的，我在YouTube上看的其他播客都这么做，我全部都看过。
They're always like hit the like button hit the like button. Oh God. Well, you know what I'm doing now too is the big trend now is to just do 10 minute quick hits as news break. So you this is just asking me what I think about getting to a million. So if you're off any thoughts on this seminal moment for the all in pod hitting one billion subscribers. I'm sorry. One million. You're welcome. You're welcome. You're welcome. What's this week? Oh, this week in Sarasas quarter million. Don't worry about it. It's a niche. Don't worry about it. It's a fraction. Not bad. Not bad.
他们总是说，点击点赞按钮，点击点赞按钮。哦，天啊。你知道吗？我现在也在做一个大趋势，那就是在新闻爆出的时候，快速发布10分钟的短视频。所以你是在问我对"All In"播客达到一百万订阅者这个重要时刻有什么看法吗？对不起，是一百万。 不用谢。不用谢。这周有什么事吗？哦，这周"Sarasas"有25万订阅。别担心，这是小众市场。没什么大不了的。这只是个小部分。还不错，还不错。
Hey, listen, I love doing it. The reason there's four of us. There's four of us. One of you. So we have four times the subscribers. Yeah, something like that. Yeah, listen, one of the great things you learn in media is when you build a super team a super band. You know, you can actually do better than everybody individual. So collectively we can do better. And listen, it's not for me to say, listen, I think you've adjusted to being Ringo Star. Listen, everybody says the same thing to me. Without the show, this would be propaganda.
嘿，听我说，我真的很喜欢做这件事。原因是我们有四个人，而你单枪匹马。所以在订阅人数上，我们有四倍的优势。是的，大概就是这样。你看，在媒体行业中，你会学到一个很重要的事情，那就是当你组建一个超级团队或者超级乐队时，你实际上可以比单个人做得更好。所以我们集体可以做得更优秀。还有，这不是我一个人能决定的，我觉得你已经习惯了成为林戈·斯塔尔（披头士乐队的鼓手）的角色。每个人都跟我说同样的话：没有这个节目，可能就会变成宣传工具。
And it would be a the Trump's personal who says that to you. Everybody everybody has to walk moose. Everybody says I'm the drink that's I'm the star in the drink. I'm the star is the drink. You're keeping the private equity wives watching great job. Absolutely. I'm keeping them in all the private equities. Love it. For every left winger, you keep watching the pod. We probably lose five. Oh, no, you could. If you were just the mag show, the people, the mag of people, they love hating me. They love hating me. And they love the comeback every week to hate, watch me and my takes watch.
这会是特朗普的私人代表对你说的话。每个人都要行动起来，每个人都说自己是关键人物。有人说自己是饮料中的“明星”，我是饮料中的“明星”。你让那些私人股本的太太们一直看着真是做得好。没错，我让她们对所有的私人股本都充满兴趣。对于每一个左翼人士，你让他们继续观看这个节目，我们可能会失去五个观众。哦，不，你可以这样想，如果你只是一个特朗普支持者的节目，那些人，他们热爱厌恶我。他们特别喜欢厌恶我，每周都要回来带着厌恶观看我和我的观点。
They just like they hate watching the private. We watch the court reason they tune in to hate you and hate me. Well, listen, it's been a great year. It's been a great year. Great job. Besties. We kept the band together for one more year. Let's do a polymarket chance. The all-in-pogance makes it to 2027. Honestly, honestly, it's not 100%. It's never 100%. It's never 100%. We'll do the best we can. You guys love the show. Smash the like button, comments, links, subscribe, whatever you want to do.
他们就像讨厌看私人视频一样。他们观看法庭，就是为了恨你和我。不过，听着，这一年过得很棒。干得好，伙计们。我们的组合又坚持了一年。让我们赌一把，看看这个全力以赴的节目能不能撑到2027年。老实说，老实说，这不是百分之百确定的，从来都不是百分之百确定的。我们会尽力而为。你们喜欢这个节目，就点个赞、留言、分享、订阅，随便你们做什么都行。
Right, a review. Tell everybody how much you love to mouth sweaters. And we'll see you next voice on another amazing all in. Bye. Bye. You're winners. Right. Rainman David. And it said we open source it to the fans and they've just gone crazy with it. I'm going to be West. I squee. What? What are we? Besties are gone. That's my dog. Take it. I wish you drive away. We should all just get a room and just have one big hug or two because they're all just like this like sexual tension that we just need to release that out.
好的，来一个回顾。告诉大家你有多喜欢咬毛衣。我们下一次节目再见，非常精彩。再见。你们是赢家。对，Rainman David。我们把它开源给粉丝，他们已经为之疯狂。我会是West。我好兴奋。我们是什么？朋友没了。那是我的狗。拿走吧。我希望你能开车离开。我们应该找个房间，来个大大的拥抱，因为这里有一种需要释放的性紧张。
What you're that beat. What you're here for. Beat you. What? Good good. We need to get besties aren't there. I'm doing all in. I'm doing all in.
你的节拍是什么，你来这里是为了什么。打败你。什么？很好很好。我们需要成为最好的朋友，不是吗？我全力以赴。我全力以赴。