Markets Weekly January 10, 2026

Hello my friends, today is January 10th and this is markets weekly. So this past week was a good week in markets. We had the S&P 500 make new all time highs. When you look at the index a bit more closely, it's very clear that the market is undergoing a rotation out of big tech and into the other stuff like miners and materials, for example. So you can see that the NASDAQ basically hasn't yet made a new all time high. Now we continue to be in a seasonally positive part of the year, although I have to admit that it does look like the market is losing a bit of momentum.

你好，我的朋友们，今天是1月10日，这是市场周报。在过去的一周里，市场表现不错。标准普尔500指数创下了历史新高。仔细观察这个指数，可以很明显地看出市场正在从大型科技公司转移到其他领域，比如矿业和材料。因此，你可以看到纳斯达克指数基本上还没有创下新高。我们目前仍处于一年中季节性较为积极的时期，尽管我必须承认，市场似乎有些失去动力。

Now this past week was a big week when it came to data. We have a whole bunch of labor market data. So today first let's talk about all the labor market data we got and how the Fed could be thinking about this. And secondly we also got a flurry of policy announcements from the President with regards to housing. We got a ban on institutional investors buying homes. We got very very interesting use of Fannie and Freddie ordering them to buy 200 billion in mortgage back securities. And most recently we have the President announcing that he's going to put a limit on credit card interest rates.

在刚刚过去的一周里，数据方面出现了重大变化。我们收到了大量有关劳动力市场的数据。所以今天，首先让我们讨论一下这些劳动力市场的数据，以及美联储可能会如何看待这些信息。其次，总统也宣布了一系列关于住房的政策。首先，我们看到禁止机构投资者购买住宅的禁令出台。然后，房利美和房地美被命令购买2000亿美元的抵押贷款支持证券，这一举动非常引人注目。最近，总统宣布将对信用卡利率设定上限。

So let's talk about all those announcements and how that could affect the economy and the markets. All right. First starting with the labor market. So this past week we got Joltz which shows the number of job openings. We got the weekly unemployment claims and of course the all-important non-farm payroll print. Now Joltz is basically telling the same story that it's been telling for several months. Now if you look at the number of job openings according to Joltz, totally, totally surge during the pandemic, huge amounts of demand. Everyone had semi-money, everyone was spending money. And then over the, I guess the few years after, gradually normalizing, and Joltz continues to show that the number of job openings is on a downward trend and actually a below where it was during the pandemic.

好的，我们来讨论一下这些公告以及它们可能如何影响经济和市场。首先，从劳动力市场开始。这周我们得到了JOLTS报告，它展示了职位空缺的数量，还有每周的失业申请数据，当然还有非常重要的非农就业数据。现在，JOLTS报告基本上讲述了过去几个月一直在传达的相同故事。如果你查看JOLTS统计的职位空缺数量，会发现它在疫情期间急剧上涨，当时市场需求量很大。大家手头都有些钱，消费也很活跃。然而，疫情后的几年里，这一状况逐渐恢复正常，JOLTS报告继续显示职位空缺数量呈下降趋势，实际上比疫情期间的数量还要低。

So very clearly a low hiring economy. Now there is also some data though that suggests that labor productivity is increasing. What that means is that employers are able to use the same employees more effectively. And so that is one reason why there could be less demand for labor. Now some people could also say that maybe AI is playing a role. I'm sure it is in certain industries but again this is still very early in the AI adoption cycle. Moving on to unemployment claims. You know really not much continuing claims continue to stay elevated but there's not a very clear deterioration in the labor market from this perspective. If there was a sudden deterioration you would expect a jump in unemployment claims as to many people who are fired go in for claim unemployment insurance. That's not happening at the moment.

显然，目前招聘市场较为低迷。不过，也有一些数据表明劳动力生产率正在提高。这意味着雇主能够更有效地利用现有员工，这可能是劳动力需求减少的一个原因。同时，也有人认为人工智能可能在其中发挥了一定作用。在某些行业中，这确实如此，但整体上来看，人工智能的应用还处于早期阶段。 接下来谈谈失业申请。其实目前来看，持续的失业救济申请依然处于高位，但从这个角度看，劳动力市场并没有明显恶化。如果劳动力市场突然恶化，你会看到失业申请数量激增，因为很多被裁员的人会去申请失业保险。目前还没有发生这种情况。

And lastly of course the most important is the monthly non-farm payroll print. Now interestingly the print was I guess unintentionally disclosed by the president himself the night before. So the way this works is that the White House actually gets the data the night before the print. And it seems like the president based on this data made a truth social post telling everyone how great the data is. But when you back out the numbers from the truth social post that could only have happened the numbers only made sense if it incorporates the latest numbers which at that point in time Thursday evening had not yet been published. The thing is no one actually pays attention to truth also it's actually terrible to navigate full of terrible ads.

最后，当然最重要的是每月的非农就业数据发布。有趣的是，这次发布的数据似乎是总统本人在前一晚无意中透露的。通常情况下，白宫会在数据发布前一晚获得这些信息。看起来，总统根据这些数据在社交媒体Truth Social上发布了一条消息，告诉大家数据有多好。但是，当你从这条社交媒体消息中解析出数字时，会发现这些数字只有在包含最新数据的情况下才有意义，而当时，数据在周四晚上还未发布。问题是实际上没有多少人关注Truth Social，因为这个平台很难使用，广告也很糟糕。

And so even though it seems like the White House team accidentally disclosed this data ahead of time no one actually picked it up. And honestly even if you knew what the print was it's not really obvious how the market would take it. Now the non-farm payrolls print itself was as it tends to be disappointing the headline job growth was a bit lower and the market anticipated about 50,000 and of course we had some downward revisions. But what was really notable though of course is the unemployment rate dropping back down. So when we're looking at this data again the going thinking is that we have all these changes in labor demand and supply we have changes in immigration policy less illegal immigrants.

即便白宫团队似乎意外提前泄露了这些数据，也没有人真正注意到。其实，即便你知道这些数据显示了什么，也不一定能猜出市场会如何反应。这次非农就业数据本身令人失望，新增职位略低于预期，市场预测增加约五万个职位，此外还有一些数据被向下修正。但真正值得注意的是失业率再次下降。当我们重新审视这些数据时，普遍认为劳动市场的供求关系发生了变化，还有移民政策的变化，使得非法移民减少。

So that's a contraction and supply and maybe there's changes in how the economy works well maybe AI and stuff like that is changing the amount of demand we have. So even though the number of headline jobs created is clearly clearly trending lower the Fed has been paying a lot more attention to the unemployment rate. With the unemployment rate coming down it's a very clear I guess month over month improvement in labor market from their perspective. So the market took one look at this and immediately priced out any possibility of a January rate cut. And that being said again labor market labor growth continues to be very very sluggish. Even though this month continues shows the unemployment rate. So it's going to be an ongoing debate we continue to have if we want further rate cuts from a Powell Fed we'll need that number to deteriorate and beyond that again we're going to have a new Fed and so things could change we'll see what happens the present is expected to announce this new Fed chair sometime this month.

所以这是一种收缩和供应，并且经济运行方式可能发生了变化，也许是因为人工智能之类的东西改变了我们的需求量。因此，即使新增就业岗位数量明显在减少，美联储更加关注失业率。失业率的下降从他们的角度来看是一个非常明显的月度劳动力市场改善。因此，市场对此反应迅速，立即排除了在一月份降息的可能性。尽管如此，劳动力市场的增长仍然非常缓慢。即使这个月显示失业率降低，我们仍会继续争论这个问题。如果我们希望鲍威尔领导的美联储进一步降息，我们需要看到失业数据恶化。此外，我们即将迎来新的美联储主席，因此情况可能会发生变化，我们拭目以待，目前预计总统将在本月宣布新任美联储主席。

It's not I don't think Kevin Haset is a front runner although he continues to be very very close to the front runner it seems like the other Kevin is gaining some speed. All right secondly let's talk about all the kind of exciting policy announcements that came out of the White House this week. So as we've been talking for some time the White House the federal government has a ton of levers to pull when it comes to stimulating the economy. So we have to be mindful that this is a very much I guess a bit more open minded White House when it comes to using executive power we've seen that over and over again again last week we had the extraction of a visit and present Maduro and then also on Friday we had this huge televised reality show style round table with all the major Oreo executives talking about how they could go in and help extract some of that oil.

翻译为中文： “这不是说我认为凯文·哈斯特不是领跑者，尽管他似乎一直非常接近领跑者的位置，但似乎另一个凯文正在加速前进。好吧，其次，让我们谈谈本周白宫发布的各种令人兴奋的政策声明。正如我们一段时间以来所谈论的那样，白宫和联邦政府在刺激经济方面有很多手段可以使用。因此，我们必须意识到这届白宫在使用行政权力方面更加开放，我们已经一次又一次地看到了这一点。上周，我们有一次访问和接触马杜罗总统的活动，然后在周五，我们有一个大型电视直播的真人秀风格圆桌会议，与所有主要的奥利奥高管讨论他们如何参与并帮助开采一些石油。”

And the conclusion seems to be that in order to give Venezuela back to three million barrels per day that it used to have many years ago so we'll take a while and a lot of investment but for it to improve from the current 750 KBD to something higher that could actually happen pretty rapidly at least according to Sher Von which is still there and has been there for I know many many decades actually I think since the beginning of their oil industry. So we are going to see a notable increase in oil from Venezuela but it's to get that huge three million barrel target per day target it's going to take a lot of time. In any case all right so back to the big announcement so of course the president first off told everyone that he's going to ban institutional investors from buying single family homes.

结论似乎是，要让委内瑞拉的石油产量恢复到多年前的每天三百万桶的水平，需要一些时间和大量投资。不过，根据在那里的谢尔·冯（Sher Von）的说法，至少从目前每天75万桶提升到更高的产量是可以比较快实现的，因为谢尔·冯已经在这个行业待了很多年，甚至可以追溯到委内瑞拉石油工业的初期。因此，我们预计委内瑞拉的石油产量将显著增加，但要达到每天三百万桶的巨大目标，仍需要很长的时间。在任何情况下，回到那个重要的公告，首先，总统告知大家，他将禁止机构投资者购买独栋家庭住宅。

He understands now and the White House has been clearly messaging that Americans are very concerned about affordability. The president's poll numbers have not been doing well they have elections coming up and at towards the end of the year so they're doing everything they can to try to improve affordability. Now to be perfectly clear this is not going to have any impact. I'm not okay so maybe that's too strong marginal marginal impact on house prices because in the US the institutional investors just don't own very many homes. When I say institutional investors we're talking about like these huge huge massive funds either publicly traded or not.

他现在明白了，白宫也明确传达了一个信息：美国人非常关心负担能力的问题。总统的支持率不太好，他们即将在年底举行选举，所以他们正在竭尽全力改善负担能力。需要明确的是，这对房价不会有太大影响，或者说影响非常微小，因为在美国，大型机构投资者持有的住房并不多。当我说机构投资者时，我指的是那些大型的基金，无论是上市的还是非上市的。

Now a lot of the homes are actually just owned by mom and pop investors like individuals who own let's say two or three rental units so it's not really something that is there is no dark dark you go investors with billions of capital buying up homes that keep everyone affordable their share of the market is just very small and more importantly a lot of the institutional landlords actually have a build to rent model and so they're taking their money and they're actually building homes so they're increasing home supply and not just going out there and just buying homes so a lot of this has been basically a lot of the fear that a pulls of capital huge huge private equity firms just buying up homes keeping homes unaffordable that's just honestly it's a bunch of nonsense it's so very crude propaganda.

现在，实际上很多房产是由个人投资者持有的，比如说那些拥有两到三个租赁单位的小型投资者。因此，并不存在那种所谓的黑暗的、大型投资者用数十亿资本购买房产使得所有房产都买不起的情况。这些大型投资者在市场上的份额非常小。更重要的是，很多机构房东实际上采用“建造出租”模式，他们将资金投入到建造房屋中，从而增加了房屋供应，而不是仅仅去购买现有房产。因此，所谓的巨额私人股本公司购买大量房产使得房产价格变得难以承受的担忧，坦率地说，完全是无稽之谈，是非常粗糙的宣传。

But these political messages are things that the president does every politician does to try to make it look like they're doing something we see this happen in other countries as well another common thing which we could actually see is foreign investor bonds you see that in other countries as well all these foreigners are coming in buying up our homes homes are for Americans so we got to keep them out that has not been announced but I think that's easily something in line with this kind of imagery so that's not going to make any difference and hopefully they'll continue to let the institutional investors build to rent because that actually increases home supply.

这些政治信息是总统和其他政治家经常使用的手段，他们试图让大家觉得他们在采取行动。这种情况在其他国家也会发生。另一个常见的现象是外国投资者购买债券，这在其他国家也可见。很多外国人会来买我们的房子，但房子是给美国人的，所以我们要阻止他们。这一点还没有被官方宣布，但我认为这可能会与此类主张相一致。这样做不会有什么实际效果，希望他们会继续允许机构投资者建房然后出租，因为这实际上能增加住房供应。

Now the second much more interesting thing that the president did is announce that Fanny and Freddie are going to buy 200 billion dollars worth of mortgage bonds now this is actually something that had had immediate impact the market saw this and immediately mortgage mortgage bonds went up in price so went down in yield and that seems to have flown through into mortgage rich as well where some people are citing that mortgage rates now have a five handle 5.99 of course a very high five handle and that is something that can actually make a difference.

现在，总统所做的第二件更有趣的事情是宣布房利美和房地美将购买价值2000亿美元的抵押贷款债券。这个消息立即产生了影响，市场看到这一消息后，抵押贷款债券的价格立即上升，收益率下降。一些人指出，这也传导到了抵押贷款利率上，现在利率已经降到了5.99%，这虽然是接近6%的“高五”利率，但这确实可能带来一些实际的变化。

So the way the mortgage market works and I go about this I talk about this in my market complete course as well is that you have a primary mortgage market and a secondary mortgage market a primary mortgage market is the market where mortgage loans are originated. So if you want to buy home you can go to a mortgage company or bank usually a mortgage company and they will originate and create a loan for you but what happens is that they don't actually keep the loan they're not trying to invest in that.

关于抵押贷款市场的运作方式，我在我的市场全景课程中也讨论过，这可以分为初级抵押贷款市场和次级抵押贷款市场。在初级抵押贷款市场中，抵押贷款是首次发放的。也就是说，如果你想买房，可以去找一家抵押贷款公司或银行（通常是抵押贷款公司），他们会为你创设并发放贷款。但实际上，他们并不真正持有这些贷款，因为他们并不是想通过这些贷款进行投资。

What they do is they collect a whole bunch of these homes they sell it to a dealer the dealer then it takes those loans and gives them to Fanny May and exchange receives a bunch of mortgage back securities so these mortgage back securities are basically a pool of mortgage loans that have a Fanny or Freddie guarantee and that can be freely traded on the market. So these are then so to institutional investors who then ultimately are the beneficiary owners of the mortgage bond.

他们的做法是将一大批房屋抵押贷款收集起来，卖给经销商。然后，经销商把这些贷款给了房利美，并换取了一系列抵押贷款证券。这些抵押贷款证券实际上是带有房利美（Fannie Mae）或房地美（Freddie Mac）担保的一组抵押贷款，可以在市场上自由交易。接着，这些证券被出售给机构投资者，最终这些投资者成为了抵押债券的受益所有人。

So when you pay your mortgage that money that mortgage payment goes into a trust managed by Fanny or Freddie and then that payment then goes into the bond holder of the mortgage back security so the mortgage back security is the secondary market right that's not where the loans are originated but where they're traded afterwards on the secondary market.

当你支付房贷时，这笔房贷付款会进入由房利美（Fannie Mae）或房地美（Freddie Mac）管理的信托，然后这些付款会流向持有按揭支持证券的债券持有者。按揭支持证券属于次级市场，这并不是贷款最初发放的地方，而是贷款在次级市场上进行交易的地方。

Now the two markets the primary mortgage market and the secondary mortgage market are connected so when Fanny and Freddie go out and buy a whole bunch of mortgage bonds they're buying a whole bunch of mortgages on the secondary market. So that means that mortgage bonds appreciate in price it makes it more attractive for people to originate mortgage loans and then sell it to the secondary market because the price of mortgage bonds has gone up.

现在，初级抵押贷款市场和次级抵押贷款市场是相互关联的。当房利美和房地美（Fannie and Freddie）购买大量抵押贷款债券时，他们实际上是在次级市场上购买了大量的抵押贷款。这意味着，如果抵押贷款债券价格上涨，发放抵押贷款并在次级市场出售会变得更有吸引力，因为抵押贷款债券的价格上涨了。

So that compels competition in the primary mortgage market people try to create more mortgage loans basically more mortgage collateral then they can sell it to the secondary market and so that is actually something that had a tremendous impact during the pandemic you have the Fed of buying literally several hundred billion dollars worth of mortgage back securities pushing mortgage back securities to very high prices.

这导致了在初级抵押贷款市场的竞争，人们试图创造更多的抵押贷款，基本上是更多的抵押品，然后他们可以把这些卖给二级市场。事实上，这在疫情期间产生了巨大影响。美联储购买了数千亿美元的抵押贷款支持证券，将这些证券的价格推到了很高的水平。

Again mortgage mortgage back security does to yield it's hard to say yield because a lot of the yield is model based because you can prepay but in any case it made it more attractive for people to originate mortgage loans to sell it to the secondary market and you have this tremendous boom or mortgage rates in the primary market when two as low was a two and a half percent.

再一次，抵押贷款支持证券的收益情况很难准确说明，因为很多收益都是基于模型的，这主要是因为借款人可以提前还款。但无论如何，这让人们更有动力去发放抵押贷款，并将其出售到二级市场。结果是，当初级市场的抵押贷款利率低至2.5%时，出现了巨大的繁荣。

Honestly the huge huge jump in house prices is largely because of that policy and if you have two and a half percent mortgage rates obviously everyone is one to buy a house now and all the Fed does many things us I think they try to do their best and all musely policy has you know the impacts of policy is not always clearly anticipated and it helps some sectors for its others.

老实说，房价大幅上涨主要是因为那个政策。如果你有两点五的抵押贷款利率，显然大家都会想要现在买房子。此外，美联储做了很多事情，我认为他们尽力而为，但货币政策的影响并不总是能够被清楚预见，它会对某些行业有帮助，但对其他行业则可能不利。

But in terms of policy errors buying hundreds of billions of mortgages when house prices were up 25% year of year is as clear as a policy error as I've ever seen in any center bank actually it was totally ridiculous and largely why we have this huge huge inflation house prices that people are complaining about today.

在政策错误方面，当房价同比上涨25%时，购买数千亿美元的抵押贷款是我所见过的最明显的政策错误之一。这实在是非常荒谬，也是导致我们今天面临的房价大幅通胀的重要原因，很多人对此感到不满。

So when founding fairly are going out to do something similar not to systemic scale we definitely will see an improvement in mortgage rates already happening and you know maybe it will help housing affordability a little bit although I think though if you want to buy a new home they already buy down your mortgage rates like 5% or maybe 4 and a half percent.

因此，当一些机构努力去做类似但不涉及系统性规模的事情时，我们一定会看到抵押贷款利率的改善，这已经在发生了。也许这会对房屋的可负担性有一点帮助。不过我认为，如果你想买新房，他们已经可以将你的按揭利率降低到大约5%或4.5%。

So it's not really a rate problem it's really I think a problem about insecurity and employment and also that the prices are too high so well-help but really it's it's not the silver bullet. Also I think this is actually has really implications on you know Fed policy and maybe what the industry actually can do with other GSEs as well and what I will write about this week.

所以，我认为这不完全是一个利率问题，而是与就业不稳定和价格过高有关的问题。所以这方面的帮助是有用的，但也不是灵丹妙药。此外，我认为这实际上对美联储的政策以及行业与其他政府支持企业（GSEs）的合作产生了真正的影响，我会在本周对此进行写作。

And again this is a super creative administration super determined they want to get mortgage risk low they want to get homes affordable tools and their toolkit this is going to be a very very interesting year.

这又是一个非常有创意且决心坚定的政府，他们希望降低抵押贷款的风险，使住房变得更加负担得起。他们工具箱中的工具将使这一年变得非常非常有趣。

All right the last thing that he just announced yesterday Friday is that president would like to cap interest rates on credit card loans to 10%. Now if you look at a chart of interest credit card interest rates over the past few years you'll notice that they are really high so they were around say 15% before the pandemic and after the pandemic they jumped to as high as 20% were they've remained so for a lot of the people who actually rely on credit cards it's been a struggle 20% interest rates is obviously very concerning so again the president is signaling that he wants to help the public by capping these credit card interest rates to about 10% and this is a policy that is really for politics for optics rather than actually helping people so because what happens in practice is that well what a credit card company is willing to charge is going to be impor portion to at their perception of the borrower's risk right so if you are someone with very good credit you're you're you're probably not going to be offered 20% rate you'd probably get something better or maybe you get some you know very generous introductory offer or something like that.

好的，昨天星期五，总统刚刚宣布的最后一件事情是，他希望将信用卡贷款的利率上限设定为10%。如果你查看过去几年信用卡利率的走势图，会发现它们非常高。在疫情之前，利率大约是15%，而在疫情之后，它们飙升到20%左右，并一直保持在这个水平。因此，对于那些依赖信用卡的人来说，20%的利率显然是非常令人担忧的。总统表示希望通过将信用卡利率限定在10%左右来帮助公众。然而，这项政策更多是出于政治目的和形象考虑，而不是真正帮助到消费者。因为在实际中，信用卡公司愿意收取的利率主要根据借款人的风险评估决定。如果你信用非常好，你通常不会被提供20%的利率，可能会获得更低的利率，或者一些非常优惠的初始优惠。

So when you limit the interest rates that credit card companies can charge obviously they're just going to just not offer as much credit to people especially to those who are have very low credit scores on credit card company offering high interest rate loans is not necessarily a bad thing because some people really are high risk right what if it's someone with history of defaults 500 FICO score very low FICO score the option for that person is either to pay high interest rates or get no credit at all and the credit card company offer obviously makes it judgment you know I'm going to get high interest income and I'm also have a high default rate is my expected value worth it that's up to them to decide and the credit card landscape is very obviously a pretty competitive landscape you have all sorts of companies offering products and so it's also very profitable for the banks.

当你限制信用卡公司可以收取的利率时，很明显，他们就不会向人们提供那么多的信用，尤其是那些信用评分非常低的人。信用卡公司提供高利率贷款并不一定是坏事，因为有些人确实是高风险的。例如，如果一个人有违约历史，FICO信用评分只有500，非常低，那么这个人要么支付高利率，要么根本得不到信用。信用卡公司会进行判断，认为可以获得高利率收入，同时也可能面临较高的违约率，而这是否值得则由他们自己决定。信用卡市场显然是一个竞争非常激烈的市场，各种公司都在推出各类产品，对银行来说也非常有利可图。

So this is just going to be honestly it's not a good policy maybe good politics but it's not a good policy because one you limit the amount of credit that don't income people or people with bad credit scores can get and that's just not good for the economy and also you're limiting the amount of business these credit card companies are willing to do by limiting what they can charge and so it's going to be crimped the financials as well at least those companies that have large credit card businesses so and I think this type of basically price control stuff is maybe good politics comes back over and over again in populist regimes but it's not going to be good for the economy or for the markets all right so that's just the second week of the year we got so much things happening I'm sure we'll have more interesting policies coming out all right so that's all prepared thanks so much for tuning in and I'll talk to you guys next week.

所以老实说，这并不是一个好的政策，可能政治上有利，但政策本身不好。首先，这种政策限制了低收入者或信用评分不佳者能够获得的信贷额度，这对经济没有好处。此外，通过限制信用卡公司可收取的费用，也限制了这些公司的业务发展，尤其是那些以信用卡业务为主的公司，其财务状况可能会受到影响。我认为这种基本上属于价格控制的做法可能在政治上受欢迎，常常在民粹主义政权中出现，但对经济和市场都没有好处。这才是新年的第二周，我们还有很多事情发生，我相信会有更多有趣的政策出台。好了，这就是全部内容。感谢收听，我们下周再见。