Elon Just Said What?! / New Robotaxi Approval Timelines / Robotaxi Hiring ⚡️
发布时间 2026-01-08 01:54:35 来源
Welcome to Electrified, it's your host, Dylanumus, quick shout out to my newest patron, Greg H. Thank you for choosing to support the channel. This week at CES Waymo gave us a bit more information on their next gen platform, what they're calling the Waymo O'Hai. For audio only, it's spelled OJAI, but it's after a city in California and most Californians say, oh hi. This vehicle is built by Chinese company Zeaker, and Waymo said the OJAI is going to be deployed amongst our markets. But they didn't say which cities will get the vans first. They said we're looking to scale into 20 plus additional cities this year, on top of the five we currently operate in. We will need all the vehicles we can get deployed.
欢迎来到《Electrified》，我是你的主持人Dylanumus。首先感谢我的最新赞助者Greg H.，谢谢你支持这个频道。本周在CES展会上，Waymo为我们提供了更多关于他们下一代平台的信息，他们称之为Waymo O'Hai。这个名字的英文拼写是OJAI，它是以加州的一个城市命名的，大部分加州人会读作“哦嗨”。这款车是由中国公司极氪（Zeaker）制造的。Waymo表示，OJAI将会在他们的市场中投放使用，但尚未公布哪些城市会率先获得这款车。他们还说，我们计划在今年扩展到20多个新城市，目前我们在5个城市运营。我们需要尽可能多的车辆投入使用。
Waymo said the electric vans are imported from China into the US before being fitted with Waymo software, sweet and sensor array. And this van previously known as the Zeaker RT is made exclusively for Waymo. The vans are outfitted with cameras, radar, lightar, and dedicated cleaning mechanisms to keep the sensors working. It's said to be built on an 800 volt architecture which will be a nice upgrade from the Jaguar I-Pace for charging, and it's said to have a 76 kilowatt hour LFP battery. But the official US range is still unknown. The OJAI will use 13 cameras for lightars, 6 radars, and an array of external audio receivers, while still a lot that's less than half the cameras on the current Jaguar I-Pace.
Waymo表示，这些电动面包车从中国进口到美国，然后再安装Waymo软件、传感器阵列和其他辅助设备。这辆面包车以前被称为Zeaker RT，是为Waymo专门制造的。面包车配备了摄像头、雷达、激光雷达和专门的清洁机制，以确保传感器正常工作。该车据说基于800伏电气架构，这在充电方面比捷豹I-Pace有很大的提升，另外，它还据称配备了76千瓦时的LFP电池。但在美国的官方续航里程尚未公布。OJAI配有13个摄像头、4个激光雷达、6个雷达，以及一组外部音频接收器，相比之下，这仍然比目前的捷豹I-Pace上的摄像头少了一半多。
And of course Waymo saying despite having fewer cameras the overall performance will be better. They said greatly reducing the sensors is one big part of our ability to scale this vehicle more cost effectively and reduce complexity in the manufacturing process. Waymo said the sensor pods are designed not to collect snow and ice, but they're also equipped with onboard heaters to help any ice build up, as well as small wipers and fluid. That keeps ice, road grime, and salt from blocking the sensor so the Waymo can continue operating even in bad weather. And they didn't give details but they did clarify for now, although the OJAI is built in China, it will not be subject to the restrictions that keep Chinese EVs out of America, namely tariffs.
当然，Waymo表示，尽管摄像头数量较少，但整体性能会更好。他们说，大幅减少传感器是我们能够更具成本效益地扩大这款车辆规模并减少制造过程复杂性的一个重要部分。Waymo还表示，传感器舱的设计可以防止积雪和结冰，但同时它们也配备了加热器以及小型雨刷和清洁液，以帮助清除积冰。这使得Waymo即使在恶劣天气下也可以继续运作。此外，尽管OJAI在中国制造，但由于关税问题，它不会受到限制中国电动车进入美国市场的影响。
I'm thinking that Waymo is getting around that because these vehicles are still for commercial use, they will not be sold to consumers. And I've seen other reports saying that Waymo is importing these vehicles as knockdown kits so that avoids some of those protective measures. And we'll see what type of scale Waymo looks to get to with these OJIs, but don't forget they also have the Hyundai Ionic 5 set to enter its fleet sometime later this year as well. Despite these two new platforms, Waymo still has about 1000 more Jaguar I-Pace's on order, and the current ones in the fleet still have thousands of miles left on their duty cycles before they're retired.
我认为Waymo能够规避一些限制，因为这些车辆仍然用于商业用途，并不会卖给消费者。我看到其他报道说，Waymo将这些车辆以散件形式进口，这样就避开了一些保护措施。我们将拭目以待Waymo会将这些OJIs扩展到何种规模，但别忘了，他们计划在今年晚些时候将现代Ionic 5也纳入车队。尽管有这两个新平台，Waymo仍然订购了大约1000辆捷豹I-Pace，并且目前车队中的车辆在退役前还有数千英里的使用寿命。
So the Zika OJAI is built very similarly to the Zika mix, and the latter is available to consumers with a rough starting price around $40,000 US dollars. So there are certainly some differences, but once you factor in Waymo's sensor suite in all of its hardware, of course that will take the price much higher, but there is a world where Waymo gets the Zika OJIs onto the road for under $100,000. We don't have specific numbers, but we can be confident it'll be a better cost profile for Waymo than the Jaguar I-Pace. I do hope Waymo can get to profitability and can survive, it's just that to date I haven't been confident they'd be able to do that.
Zika OJAI 的制造方式与 Zika mix 类似，后者的起价大约为 40,000 美元。因此，它们之间确实存在一些差异，但如果你考虑到 Waymo 的传感器套件和所有硬件，价格当然会高得多。不过，也有可能 Waymo 能以低于 100,000 美元的价格将 Zika OJIs 投放到市场。我们没有具体的数字，但可以肯定的是，这会比 Jaguar I-Pace 对 Waymo 更有成本优势。我希望 Waymo 能实现盈利并保持生存，只是到目前为止，我对他们能否做到这一点并不太有信心。
And I still think so much of Waymo's viability will boil down to how fast Tesla can roll out its solution, and at least so far it just hasn't been as fast as many of us were expecting. And on that point real quick, I did just want to officially say to all of you that I was wrong about Tesla's unsupervised timelines in Austin. And yes, it was just my best guess, but I take what I do very seriously and I try to keep expectations in line with reality, and I do try hard to understand the technology and to put all of the puzzle pieces together to figure out how things might unfold.
我仍然认为Waymo的市场竞争力很大程度上取决于特斯拉推出其解决方案的速度，而至少到目前为止，特斯拉并没有达到许多人预期的速度。在这点上，我想正式告诉大家，我对特斯拉在奥斯汀无人监督驾驶技术时间表的预测是错误的。虽然那只是我最好的猜测，但我非常严肃地对待自己的工作，力求让大家的期待与现实一致，并且努力去理解这项技术，把各种信息拼凑在一起，试图预测事情的发展。
And this time around I was far too optimistic, so as always I will do my best to be less wrong moving forward. And as always thank you all for the grace along the way. Te alo si vi shared some images of Tesla validation vehicles with some interesting camera placements. These cars were charging in Los Gatos and you'll see both on the model Y and the cybertruck they have cameras placed on the outside of the front bumper. And I'm sure many of us over the years have thought a camera would certainly make sense in that area especially when the car is trying to creep forward.
这一次我过于乐观了，因此我会一如既往地努力减少错误。感谢大家一路以来的宽容。Te alo si vi 分享了一些特斯拉测试车辆的图片，这些车在洛斯加托斯充电，车上有几个有趣的摄像头安装位置。你会注意到，在Model Y和Cybertruck上，它们都在前保险杠的外侧安装了摄像头。我相信多年来我们中的许多人都认为在这个位置安装摄像头是有道理的，特别是当车辆需要向前缓慢移动时。
Now obviously with what we believe to be the LiDAR rigs on the roof these are validation vehicles, but I just wanted to say I think Tesla would know by now if it needed more cameras on the current fleet. And if it did we would see a camera in these locations on the cyber cab, but that's not the case. So if I had to make another guess I would not expect these camera placements on the current fleet, but I would say maybe if there was a future vehicle a more SUV type that we didn't know about maybe that vehicle would have a new camera set. But unfortunately I still have my doubts that Tesla will continue to make vehicles that are not purpose built for autonomy after the roadster. All that to say this was certainly an interesting find, but I personally would not get my hopes up for any sort of camera retrofit in these locations on the current fleet anytime soon.
现在很明显，我们认为车顶上的激光雷达设备是用于验证的车辆，但我只是想说，如果特斯拉需要在现有车队上增加更多摄像头，他们现在应该已经知道了。如果确实需要，我们会在这些位置的电动皮卡上看到摄像头，但事实并非如此。所以，如果让我再猜测一次，我并不认为这些摄像头会出现在现有车队上。不过我想，也许如果将来有一款新的、更像SUV的车型我们还不知道的话，那个车型可能会有新的摄像头配置。但遗憾的是，我仍然怀疑在跑车之后特斯拉是否会继续制造没有为自动驾驶专门设计的车辆。总之，这是一个有趣的发现，但我个人不会对现有车队在这些位置上的摄像头改装抱太大希望。
We definitely have to touch on this new all-solid state battery from Donut Labs. First of all the claims they're saying 400 watt hours per kilogram. For reference a Tesla battery is in the neighborhood of 250 watt hours per kilogram. And yes of course those numbers vary based on whether it's at the cell level or the pack level and whether it's LFP or NMC but you get the rough idea. They're touting fast charging in five minutes from zero to 100%. They're saying 100,000 cycles for the battery compared to high-end lithium batteries maxing out around 5,000 cycles. Of course all-solid state means no liquid electrolytes and they're saying this battery operates from negative 30 degrees Celsius to 100 degrees Celsius. And they're also saying lower cost than lithium ion designed for scalable production.
我们一定要谈谈Donut实验室推出的新型全固态电池。首先，他们声称这个电池的能量密度达到了每公斤400瓦时。作为参考，特斯拉的电池能量密度大约是每公斤250瓦时。当然，这些数值会因电池使用的具体类型，如采用LFP（磷酸铁锂）还是NMC（三元锂），以及是在单体电池层面还是电池包层面而有所不同，但大家可以大致了解差距。他们还宣称这种电池可以在五分钟内迅速充电，从0充到100%。对比高端锂电池最多只能达到约5000次充电循环，他们的电池可以达到10万次循环。此外，全固态意味着没有液态电解质，并且他们表示这种电池可以在零下30摄氏度到100摄氏度的温度范围内工作。他们还声称这款电池的成本低于锂离子电池，并且支持大规模生产。
And yes at this point you better be thinking it's too good to be true. But we have Donut Labs saying they're partnered with Verge Motorcycles to put this solid state battery in a motorcycle. Donut is also talking about a partnership with Watt EV where they're developing a lightweight EV skateboard platform using what Donut Labs is actually known for making wheels that have electric motors in them. And they're saying all of this technology will come to market with delivery starting Q1 this year. From CES these solid state cells are about the size of a large smartphone and they're very light. Donut said they'll be great for use in aerial drones. The current application combines the cells into bigger 5kWh power units, each about the size of a game console. Four of those units are then loaded into the Verge TSPRO's chassis where the motor usually lives on other bikes.
当然，到这个时候你可能会觉得这一切好得难以置信。但我们有Donut Labs宣布他们与Verge Motorcycles建立了合作关系，计划将这种固态电池应用到摩托车上。Donut还谈到了与Watt EV的合作，他们正开发一种轻量化电动滑板车平台，利用Donut Labs以制造轮子而闻名的技术，这些轮子内置电动马达。他们表示，这些技术将于今年第一季度开始投放市场。
根据CES的信息，这种固态电池的大小和一部大号智能手机类似，而且非常轻。Donut表示这些电池非常适合用于无人机。当前的应用是将这些电池单元组合成更大的5kWh电力单元，每个单元的大小差不多和游戏机主机差不多大。然后，将四个这样的电力单元装入Verge TSPRO的车架中，通常这个位置在其他摩托车上是用来安装马达的。
But here's my main problem. Before this announcement, Donut Labs has had very little experience in the battery world. As far as I can tell this company is primarily known for its in wheel electric motors. So they work on things for that, inverters, the software, but when it comes to battery cells that's not been what they're doing. But despite that the company is saying that they're here now and that they waited to make this announcement until the technology was fully validated in vehicles operating on public roads. And yes, those vehicles are the Verge motorcycles. The company said more than 200 OEMs are currently engaged in the development and integration of its motor technology.
但这就是我的主要问题。在这个公告之前，Donut Labs 在电池领域的经验很少。据我所知，这家公司主要以车轮内的电动马达而闻名。因此，他们专注于这方面的工作，比如逆变器和软件，但在电池单元上并没有太多动作。尽管如此，该公司表示，他们现在已经进入这个领域，并且在技术经过验证后才宣布，这些技术已经在公共道路上运行的车辆中得到了验证。是的，这些车辆就是 Verge 摩托车。据公司称，目前有超过200家OEM厂商正在参与其马达技术的开发和整合。
So again, a lot of promises, not a lot of track record in the battery space, but I found this. October of this year, Donut Labs invested in a sustainable tech leader Nordic Nano. And Nordic Nano had been working on solar energy, energy storage, and hydrogen production. But another problem I have is Donut Lab is a pretty new company just about two years old and they are raising money right now. They just did a seed round about six months ago. So where do I land after all of this? For now, of course, I'm going to remain skeptical. It's a CES announcement. It's a young company without any real track record in the battery space, one who's actively raising money and trying to bring their products to market.
所以，总的来说，有很多承诺，但在电池领域并没有很多实际成绩。不过，我发现了一些信息。今年十月，Donut Labs 投资了一家可持续科技领导者 Nordic Nano。Nordic Nano 一直在从事太阳能、能源存储和氢能生产方面的工作。不过，我的另一个疑虑是，Donut Labs 是一家相当新的公司，成立仅约两年，目前正在筹集资金。他们大约六个月前才进行了种子轮融资。那么，在这一切之后我有什么结论呢？目前，当然，我会保持怀疑态度。这是一个在 CES 上发布的消息。Donut Labs 是一家在电池领域没有任何实际成绩的年轻公司，现在正积极筹集资金并尝试将其产品推向市场。
However, I think it should go without saying if this proves to be real and they start shipping these all solid state batteries on these motorcycles in Q1, then at that point, the narrative might start to shift a little bit, but we really don't have any lab testing, any scientific studies. There's really just nothing out there about this battery, so I can't validate it for you. But I will definitely be watching closely because as we know, if this were to be true, it would have big implications for what might change in the coming years from a battery perspective. And yes, obviously there would be questions about producing these solid state batteries at a scale that would be enough for electric vehicles, but as we know, everybody has to start somewhere.
不过，我认为，这应该是不言而喻的，如果这成为现实，并且他们在第一季度开始在摩托车上推出这些全固态电池，那么到那时，情况可能会有所改变。但是，目前我们没有实验室测试或科学研究。关于这种电池，真的没有任何信息，所以我无法为你验证。不过，我肯定会密切关注，因为我们都知道，如果这是真的，它将在未来几年可能带来重大影响，特别是在电池领域。是的，显然会有关于如何大规模生产这些全固态电池以满足电动车需求的问题，但正如我们所知，大家都必须从某处起步。
I'm guessing a lot of you already saw Elon's 3-hour interview with Peter DiAmandis and Dave Blunden. And first and foremost, I have to say, if you ever have the privilege of hosting an interview, please let your guest speak. Let them finish their thoughts, allow for silence and space for them to think. And remember, for that segment, you as the host are not the focus your guest is. And yes, I'm looking at you, Peter and Dave. All throughout this interview, they were cutting Elon off and talking over him, not letting him finish his thoughts. It was incredibly frustrating.
我猜很多人已经看过了埃隆与彼得·迪亚曼迪斯和戴夫·布伦登的三小时采访。首先，我必须说，如果你有幸主持一次采访，请让你的嘉宾多说话。让他们把想法说完，给他们留出思考的空间和时间。记住，在这个环节中，你作为主持人不是重点，嘉宾才是。是的，我说的就是你们，彼得和戴夫。在整个采访过程中，他们不断打断埃隆的话，不让他完整表达，实在令人沮丧。
And I won't stay here long. I just want to add context to a few things, but Elon did say the Roadster will be the best of the last of the human-driven cars. He did not give a new update on the timeline for when we can expect a demo, so that means we're still hoping for April 1st, ish on that. Now, Elon did make a bet saying that Tesla would have a 2 nanometer chip fab in which Elon could smoke a cigar and eat a cheeseburger in the fab. Naturally, most people focus on the ladder, but the real news there is the 2 nanometer fab.
我不会在这里待太久。我只是想为一些事情补充一些背景。埃隆确实说过，Roadster 将会是最后一代人类驾驶汽车中最好的一款。不过，他没有提供关于何时能看到演示的新时间表，所以我们仍然希望能在大约4月1日左右看到。埃隆打趣说，特斯拉将拥有一个2纳米芯片的制造工厂，并且他可以在工厂里抽雪茄、吃汉堡。自然，大多数人关注的是后者，但真正的新闻是这个2纳米芯片制造工厂。
So Elon is not backing away from the Tesla Terra fab. But if it's going to be a cutting-edge 2 nanometer facility, there's a world where the capital outlay for Tesla ends up north of 10 to 20 billion dollars just for this one fab. And I think the real signal here is what Elon is envisioning when it comes to the scale and what type of chips Tesla will need, because of course, they have companies like TSMC and Samsung they can go get advanced chips from. Tesla already has the deal with Samsung where they're going to be collaborating to some degree on Samsung's new factory, but the way I see it, Elon is predicting a shortage of chips within the next 3 to 5 years.
所以埃隆并没有撤回特斯拉的Terra晶圆厂计划。但如果这是一个尖端的2纳米制造设施，仅这一个工厂，特斯拉的资本投入可能就会超过100到200亿美元。我认为这里真正的重要信号是埃隆对于规模的预想以及特斯拉所需芯片的类型，因为当然，他们可以从台积电和三星这些公司获得先进的芯片。特斯拉已经与三星达成了协议，双方将在三星的新工厂展开一定程度的合作。但在我看来，埃隆预计未来3到5年内芯片将会出现短缺。
Because that's roughly how long it would take, Tesla to actually get this fab up and running and into production. It would likely be one year of choosing a site and getting the permits and designing the building and the facility and then prepping the site. Then likely another year at least to build the factory, the shell, the exterior. Then, of course, you obviously have the utilities and the clean rooms that might be state of the art if Elon is really smoking a cigar and eating a cheeseburger in there. And Tesla would need to get its hands on the ASML lithography machines that are always in super high demand.
大致来说，特斯拉需要这么长的时间才能真正让这个制造工厂投入运行并开始生产。首先，大概需要一年时间来选择地点、获取许可证、设计建筑和设施，并准备施工现场。接下来，至少还需要一年时间来建造工厂的结构和外部设施。当然，还需要配备各种实用设施和无尘车间，假如埃隆·马斯克真的在里面抽雪茄吃汉堡的话，这些设施可能是最先进的。此外，特斯拉还需要获得总是供不应求的ASML光刻机。
And then once they have everything built out and set up, it would likely take another one to two years to start low-level test production and get to the point where the chips are ready and stable for production. So as we said before, if this comes to fruition, this really would be Tesla's biggest bet ever. And yes, of course there's a chance Elon is just saying all of this publicly to put pressure on Samsung and TSMC to ramp up production. But Elon said again today, Terrafab is needed.
一旦所有的建设和设置完成后，可能还需要一到两年时间才能开始低水平的测试生产，并达到芯片可以稳定生产的阶段。因此，正如我们之前所说，如果这真的实现，那将是特斯拉有史以来最大的一次赌注。当然，也有可能埃隆只是公开这么说，以施压三星和台积电加快生产。但埃隆今天再次表示，特拉工厂是必需的。
So there is a world where we get a groundbreaking of a Tesla Terrafab sometime toward the end of this year. Well, Cortex 2, that's me built out. That'll be half a gig of what an operational middle next year. I'm hoping we get an update on the current size of Cortex 1 on the Q4 call. But today the reporting out there has been that Cortex 1 would start around 130 MW and could potentially scale up to 500 MW. But for now, it's not officially clear how Cortex 2 would relate to Cortex 1 if they're going to be completely separate or if Elon is combining the size and scale of both 1 and 2.
所以，有一种情况是我们可能会在今年年底看到特斯拉Terrafab的奠基仪式。这时，Cortex 2，也就是我，会被建成。到明年中期，它将有500兆瓦的运作能力。我希望能在第四季度的电话会议上得到关于Cortex 1当前规模的更新。但到目前为止，已有报道表示Cortex 1的起始容量为130兆瓦，并可能扩大到500兆瓦。不过，目前尚不清楚Cortex 2和Cortex 1之间的关系，它们是否会完全独立还是Elon会将两个项目的规模结合起来。
And yes, we can go to Tesla's Q3 slide deck where they said Cortex was a total of 81,000 H100 equivalents. And just super rough math, that would be in the neighborhood of about an 80 MW system. And I know this all just sounds like arbitrary numbers, but why this really matters is because version 13 was likely powered and enabled by Cortex 1 coming online toward the end of 2024. And the last update we got from Elon was that FSD is not limited by compute.
好的，我们可以查看特斯拉第三季度的演示文稿，其中提到Cortex的总量相当于81,000个H100等效设备。简单的粗略计算，这大约相当于一个80兆瓦的系统。我知道这些数字听起来有些抽象，但重要的是，因为版本13很可能是由Cortex 1在2024年底上线所提供的支持和动力。而我们从埃隆·马斯克那里得到的最后消息是，完全自动驾驶（FSD）并不受计算能力的限制。
So that's why the expectation is that Cortex 2 will primarily be for training optimists. But hopefully you get the picture of why that 500 MW being online maybe in the next six months is such a huge deal. And yes, Elon meant this summer because that podcast was recorded in December. So Tesla might be going from having in the neighborhood of 80 MW of compute at Cortex 1 online to having 500 additional MW online in the next six months.
所以，这就是为什么预期Cortex 2主要用于培训乐观者的原因。但希望你能明白为什么在接下来的六个月内，增加500兆瓦的计算能力上线是如此重要的一件事。是的，埃隆指的确实是这个夏天，因为那个播客是在十二月录制的。所以在今后的六个月内，特斯拉可能会从Cortex 1现有的约80兆瓦计算能力，增加到总共500兆瓦的额外计算能力上线。
So whether Tesla uses that capacity for FSD, Optimists, or both, either way it's a massive win. And that's what I mean. The average person doesn't understand what Elon means when he says 500 MW coming online. It's like, okay, big deal. But hopefully that's enough context to understand why it is a big deal. And if it's true and they pull it off, Tesla's AI efforts should accelerate materially toward the end of this year.
所以，无论特斯拉将这种产能用于全自动驾驶（FSD）、Optimus机器人，还是两者兼顾，这都是一个重大胜利。这就是我的意思。普通人可能不太明白埃隆所说的500兆瓦上线意味着什么。听起来好像没什么大不了的，但希望我提供的背景信息足以帮助你理解为什么这是件大事。如果这是真的并且他们成功做到了，特斯拉的人工智能计划预计会在今年年底前显著加速。
And the last thing from this interview, I just need everybody to hear what Elon said. When do you think Optimists would be a better surgeon than the best surgeons? How long for that? Three years. Three years. Okay. Yeah. And by the way, that's a three or three years at scale. Yes. And there will be more probably be more Optimist robots that are great surgeons than there are all surgeons on earth. Guys, guys, guys, guys, guys. First and foremost, this absolutely made it to the prediction tracker. Now, I'm out here reeling from my poor prediction about Tesla's unsupervised robot taxi scaling. Meanwhile, Elon is talking directly to millions of people saying that Optimists will be better than the best surgeons in three years at scale.
翻译如下：
在这次采访的最后，我需要大家听听埃隆说的话。你认为Optimus机器人什么时候能比最优秀的外科医生更厉害？多久？三年。三年，好。顺便说一下，这是指三年后可以大规模应用。是的，届时可能会有更多出色的Optimus机器人当外科医生，比地球上所有的外科医生都要多。大家，大家，大家，大家。首先，这绝对被记录到了预测跟踪器里。同时，我因为自己对于特斯拉无人驾驶出租车扩展的预测不佳而感到震惊，而埃隆则直接告诉数百万人说Optimus将在三年内在大规模应用上超越最优秀的外科医生。
And he said there will be more Optimist robots that are great surgeons than all surgeons on earth. Now, just to let you know where I'm at on this one, I'd be comfortable going on record saying Optimists will have done a total of zero surgeries within the next three years. And yes, I have added that to the tracker. Of course, I would love to be wrong here, but I just have serious doubts about those timelines and you know, I'm expecting many Optimist challenges and setbacks and hurdles and delays. But I think it's fair to siphon from this Elon prediction that Tesla has done something truly special with the Optimist hand and that with Cortex too, to some degree, anything is possible.
他说，将来天际线的外科医生机器人数量将超过地球上所有的外科医生。现在，针对这个观点，我愿意公开表示，我认为在未来三年内，天际线机器人做的手术将为零。是的，我已经把这个观点加入了追踪器。当然，我希望我的预测是错误的，但我对这些时间表有很大的怀疑。你知道的，我预计会有很多天际线的挑战、挫折、障碍和延误。然而，我认为可以从埃隆的预测中得出，特斯拉在天际线的手部开发上确实做出了一些非常特殊的成就，并且他们的智能系统也展示了某种程度上的无限可能性。
And I'd be the first to say a lot can happen in three years once Tesla can get production of Optimists up and running. So for me, I do think it'll be similar to FSD in the sense that it is slowly at first and then all at once. We're still stuck in the slowly at first phase for FSD, but hopefully we get the all at once sometime later this year. So for me, I'm expecting a similar story with Optimists. But Elon has missed terribly on predictions like this with the 20 million vehicles a year one and his FSD timelines. So this could easily be another one of those. All I know for sure, it's going to be a blast to watch it unfold.
一旦特斯拉能够开始生产Optimists，三年内可能会发生很多变化，我会是第一个承认这一点的人。对我来说，我认为这将与FSD（全自动驾驶）有类似的过程：一开始进展缓慢，然后突然加速。我们目前仍处于FSD的缓慢阶段，但希望今年晚些时候能迎来突飞猛进。因此，我对Optimists的发展也有类似的预期。不过，埃隆在类似预测上的表现一直不太准确，比如每年生产2,000万辆汽车和FSD的时间表。所以，这可能又是一个类似的情况。我唯一确定的是，观察它的发展将会非常有趣。
Alexandra Tesla Boomer Mama continues to do excellent work for the Tesla community and really Tesla. On January 13th, there will be a hearing on motor vehicle safety and autonomous vehicle legislation. So if you would like to help, I will have this link below as she included a lot of contact information for your local representatives and she did include both email and phone scripts as well. So if you'd like to make your voice heard, now would be a great time to do so to encourage your local representatives to pass legislation that is more accommodative to autonomous vehicles.
Alexandra Tesla Boomer Mama 继续为特斯拉社区和特斯拉本身做出卓越的贡献。1月13日将有一场关于机动车安全和自动驾驶汽车立法的听证会。如果您想帮忙，我会在下面提供一个链接，因为她提供了很多本地代表的联系信息，包括电子邮件和电话脚本。如果您想表达您的意见，现在是个好时机，可以鼓励当地代表通过更有利于自动驾驶汽车的立法。
As you can see on the Energy and Commerce website, this hearing will be on multiple bills and proposals. And in case you're wondering where Sawyer got that 90,000 vehicle number, it's from right here. We've talked about this a lot how currently NITSA offers exemptions for vehicles that don't meet the FMVSS requirements, specifically vehicles that don't have wheels or pedals. But right now that cap is 2500 vehicles, but there are proposals out there that would bump that up to 90,000.
正如你在能源和商务网站上所看到的，这次听证会将涉及多个法案和提案。如果你想知道索耶说的9万辆车的数字是从哪里来的，答案就在这里。我们已经多次讨论过，目前国家公路交通安全管理局（NITSA）会为那些不符合联邦机动车安全标准（FMVSS）的车辆提供豁免，特别是那些没有车轮或踏板的车辆。但是，目前这个豁免的上限是2500辆，不过现在有一些提案建议将这个上限提高到9万辆。
And as I said on X, that number feels so arbitrary because if you're going to let one company deploy 90,000 autonomous vehicles, why stop there? If you're letting them already do that, then we can safely assume that the data says the vehicles are safe enough. So we'll see if they comment on that number further and it does matter because as we know Tesla is the only company that's going to come close to running up against that cap. WAMO wouldn't sniff that limit any time this year and likely not in 2027 either. And the truth is I don't think Tesla comes anywhere near that limit this year for the CyberCab, but in 2027 the story will hopefully be different.
就像我在X平台上说的，这个数字感觉很随意，因为如果你允许一家公司部署9万辆自动驾驶汽车，为什么要止步于此呢？如果你已经允许他们这样做，那我们可以安全地假设数据表明这些车辆是足够安全的。所以我们会看看他们是否会对这个数字进一步评论，这很重要，因为我们知道特斯拉是唯一一家公司可能接近这个上限。WAMO今年不可能接近这个限制，很可能在2027年也不会。而事实上，我认为特斯拉今年在CyberCab方面并没有接近这个限制，但希望到了2027年情况会有所不同。
So it's completely up in the air what happens at this hearing, but the good news is it's happening. Another bill said the current FMVSS standards were not designed with fully autonomous vehicles in mind, creating certification challenges and slowing design and production of vehicles without drivers. And did Elon's recent dinner with Trump have anything to do with this hearing being set a few days after? Honestly, I doubt it given how short the turnaround was, but either way I will always prefer Elon to be in good graces with whomever the president is.
因此，这次听证会的结果尚未确定，但好消息是听证会即将举行。另一项法案提到，目前的《联邦机动车安全标准》（FMVSS）并不是针对完全自动驾驶车辆设计的，这带来了认证上的挑战，并且减缓了无驾驶员车辆的设计和生产。至于埃隆最近与特朗普共进晚餐，是否与听证会的快速安排有关系？坦率地说，我对此表示怀疑，因为时间间隔实在太短。不过，无论如何，我总是希望埃隆能与任意一位总统保持良好关系。
But the problem with all of this is when the bills might actually go into effect. Just this one as an example they said not later than one year after the date of enactment of this act, the secretary shall develop a roadmap to achieve commercial scale deployment of level four and level five autonomous vehicles. So hypothetically, if this act was enacted later this year, it wouldn't be until late 2027 until that roadmap is out there. In terms of timelines, of course, it's nearly impossible to say, but I would say bullish scenario if everything goes swimmingly and the house approves one or some of these bills, then maybe a Senate bill could follow that up sometime in the summer. Then they'd have the back and forth work out any remaining differences and potentially get to a reconciliation sometime between July and August this year.
这段话的意思是说，问题在于这些法案何时能真正生效。以其中一个为例，规定在该法案通过后的不超过一年内，相关负责人要制定出商业化推广四级和五级自动驾驶汽车的路线图。所以假设这个法案在今年晚些时候通过，那么直到2027年年底，这个路线图才有可能发布。在时间安排方面，当然几乎不可能做出精准预估，但乐观地来看，如果一切顺利，众议院通过了一些法案，那么参议院可能会在夏天跟进。然后，他们需要来回协商解决剩余的分歧，并有可能在今年七月到八月之间达成一致。
Then on the other hand, if things don't go well and there's a lot of pushback, I think a more bearish scenario would be another 12 to 15 months, which would take us to roughly Q1 2027. But the good news is this is what we've all been waiting for to hear and update on what's going on. We just want to know that everybody is working on it. And now the ball will be rolling a bit more publicly starting January 13th. And listen, the truth is Tesla investors making noise in the past has absolutely moved the needle. So once again, a reminder, Alexander's article will be below if you want to make your voice heard.
然后从另一个角度来看，如果事情进展不顺利，并且遇到很多阻力，我认为更加悲观的情况是需要再过12到15个月，这大致会带我们到2027年第一季度。不过，好消息是，这是我们都一直期待听到和了解的更新。我们只是想知道大家都在努力。而且从1月13日起，事情会更加公开地开始推进。请注意，过去特斯拉投资者发出的声音确实产生了影响。因此，再次提醒一下，如果你想发表意见，亚历山大的文章会在下方。
Just this week on LinkedIn, Melanie Portillo said, get ready, Dallas and Fort Worth. I'm excited to share I've joined Tesla to help launch the autonomous robot taxi operations fleet coming back to the autonomous vehicle space feels full circle and there's no better company to do it with. She's officially the robot taxi operations manager starting this month. And just to be clear, Austin is not part of the Dallas Fort Worth Metroplex. And the reason Melanie said returning is because she used to work at cruise as a commercial operations manager, also in the same area.
就在本周，Melanie Portillo在LinkedIn上表示，准备好吧，达拉斯和沃思堡。我很高兴地分享，我已经加入特斯拉，将帮助启动自动驾驶机器出租车运营车队。回到自动驾驶领域让我感觉像是回到了起点，而与特斯拉这样的公司合作无疑是最好的选择。她这个月正式成为机器出租车运营经理。需要说明的是，奥斯汀并不属于达拉斯-沃思堡大都会区。而Melanie说再次回到这个领域的原因是，她曾在同一区域的Cruise公司担任商业运营经理。
On the Tesla careers page right now, Tesla is hiring for robot taxi operations manager in two other cities, both in Florida, one in Dorao and the other in Orlando. What this role will do monitor service trends and develop standards and processes to maintain the uptime of the robot taxi fleet, understand and improve all aspects robot taxi service performance, championing safety, efficiency quality and technical acumen in service operations. Lead daily operations from service to cleaning to managing our lost and found process and coordinate across the market and other teams at Tesla to remove blockers to the growth of the robot taxi program.
在目前的特斯拉招聘页面上，特斯拉正在佛罗里达州的另外两个城市招聘机器人出租车运营经理职位，一个在Doral，另一个在奥兰多。这个职位的主要职责包括监控服务趋势、制定标准和流程以保证机器人出租车车队的正常运行，理解并改善机器人出租车服务的各个方面的表现，推动安全性、效率、质量和技术能力在服务运营中的应用。该职位负责管理日常运营，包括服务、清洁以及管理失物招领流程，并且需要与市场和特斯拉的其他团队合作，解决机器人出租车项目发展中的障碍。
So the pieces are being put in place and it really does feel like the floodgates should be opening at any point. I'm not saying I think it's going to happen in Q1. Part of me feels like 14.3 and reasoning in the model and banish are going to be key pieces here because remember, Elon said that would be the last big piece of the puzzle. But in just over two weeks we'll have a quarterly call and hopefully learn a lot more.
所以，一切都在逐渐就位，这种感觉就像洪水的闸门随时会打开。我不是说这会在第一季度发生。我觉得，版本14.3和模型中的推理以及banish将是这里的关键部分，因为记得埃隆说那将是最后一块大拼图。不过，再过两周多一点，我们将迎来季度电话会议，希望能了解到更多信息。
In case you missed it, XAI just officially raised $20 billion which exceeded the $15 billion target. And it's not official but the word is with this latest funding round, XAI is now valued at a $230 billion pre-money valuation. And this is exactly why many of us started saying Tesla should invest in XAI back when it was valued at around 5 to 10 billion dollars. For what it's worth, I would still be good with Tesla investing in XAI, but if they don't do it before the valuation gets to a trillion dollars, then most of the upside will already be gone. And hear me, I said most of the upside not all of it.
如果你错过了，XAI 刚刚正式筹集了 200 亿美元，超过了 150 亿美元的目标。目前还没有官方消息，但据说在这轮最新的融资后，XAI 的投前估值已经达到了 2300 亿美元。这正是为什么我们中很多人早在 XAI 估值大约在 50 至 100 亿美元时，就开始说特斯拉应该投资 XAI 的原因。无论如何，我仍然认为特斯拉投资 XAI 是个好主意，但如果他们不在估值达到一万亿美元之前行动，大部分增值机会就会消失。请听我说，是大部分而不是全部增值机会。
They said GROK5 is currently in training and we're focused on launching innovative new consumer and enterprise products that harness the power of GROK, Colossus, and X to transform how we live, work, and play. Tesla stock closed the day at $431.36, while the NDX was up 0.06%. The volume was 19% below the average. Hope you all have a wonderful day and a huge thank you to all of my Patreon supporters.
他们说GROK5目前正在训练中，我们专注于推出创新的消费级和企业级产品，以利用GROK、Colossus和X的力量来改变我们的生活、工作和娱乐方式。特斯拉的股票收盘价为431.36美元，而纳斯达克100指数上涨了0.06%。成交量比平均水平低19%。希望大家有美好的一天，非常感谢所有支持我的Patreon赞助者。