Markets Outlook 2026
发布时间 2025-12-27 15:25:06 来源
Hello my friends. So today is the day after Christmas. I want to wish everyone a Merry Christmas. Now this week of course was a very, very quiet week. So today let's do our markets outlook for 2026. Now before we do that, of course we have to revisit how our outlook did last year. Now, honestly not that great, but first let's start with equities. So last year when the S&P was trading about 6,000, I was thinking we would have a pretty negative year and gave a target of 5,500 and that was just totally, totally wrong, not just wrong in magnitude, but in direction as well. It looks like we are just a hairs with from 7,000. So that was really, really bad.
你好，我的朋友们。今天是圣诞节后的第一天，我想祝大家圣诞快乐。本周当然是非常非常安静的一周。今天我们来展望一下2026年的市场。当然，在此之前，我们必须回顾一下去年的展望表现。坦白说，并不是很好。首先，我们先从股票说起。去年，当标准普尔指数在6,000点左右时，我认为我们会经历一个相当糟糕的一年，并给出了5,500点的目标，但完全错了，不仅在幅度上错了，在方向上也错了。看来我们现在已经接近7,000点。所以这个预测真的是非常非常差劲。
And looking at gold last year, when gold was trading at 26,000, I thought we would have a very good year for gold. I think thinking that it would be around 3,000 and man, we did have a good year in gold, but well way, way, way more than I ever expected. Gold is up 70% year to date at just about 4,500. So whereas that was directionally correct, still the 3,000 outlook target was very, very understated. The last thing of course was rates. Last year we were 3,000, about 4,000, 6 on the 10 year. I thought rates would come down to around 4%. It looks like rates are about 4,000, 1,5, still above 4%, but directionally though, still in the right direction.
去年金价交易在26,000的时候，我认为黄金市场会有个好年景。我当时觉得金价会涨到大约3,000。然而，事实证明我们确实迎来了黄金的大好年景，远远超出了我的预期。金价今年以来已经上涨了70%，接近4,500。所以虽然我的方向是对的，但3,000的预期目标实在是太低估了。当然，最后还要说的是利率。去年我们的利率在3,000，大约4,000，10年期利率大概是6。我原以为利率会降到大约4%。看起来利率目前大约在4,000，1.5左右，还是在4%以上，不过方向上还是正确的。
So overall, not that great, I would say at least 2 out of the 3, we did get the direction correct. So hopefully we'll do better this year. Remember, this is not an exotic advice. This is for entertained purposes based on my best judgment with information that I have as of today. Of course, many things change in the markets. And I do change my view as facts change, but I will never update my outlook. The changes I have on my market views are in my market view portfolio on my website, which we'll talk about later on.
总体来说，不是特别好，我会说我们至少在三个方向中预测对了两个方向。所以希望我们今年能做得更好。请记住，这不是一个专业建议，仅供娱乐参考，这是基于我目前掌握的信息做出的最佳判断。当然，市场上有很多变化，我也会根据新情况调整看法，但我不会更新我的整体市场展望。我对市场的看法会在我的市场观察组合中更新，我们稍后会在我的网站上讨论这个问题。
But for this year though, let's start with what everyone cares about the most, the S&P 500. Now when I look at the chart of the S&P 500, honestly, it looks like we've been basically stuck here for some time. It even looks a little bit topsy. So you know, my best guess is that we will get above 7,000, maybe next week. But next year though, so on the one hand, it's clear to me that policy is shifting in a pretty big way. So you have present Trump who is adamant, adamant that he wants low interest rates. And so whatever the market is pricing in next year, I'm guessing that it's going to be a little bit lower.
但今年就来说，让我们从大家最关心的标普500指数开始。当我查看标普500的走势图时，老实说，感觉我们已经在这里停滞了一段时间。它甚至看起来有点不稳定。所以，我的最佳猜测是我们可能在下周会突破7000点。但明年呢，从另一方面来说，我很明确地看到政策正在发生重大变化。特朗普总统坚决要求低利率。因此，无论市场对明年的预期如何，我猜测它可能会稍微走低一点。
And again, that's going to be positive for the market. It also seems like the person is gearing up into fiscal stimulus mode. So next year is the midterm elections. Historically speaking, whoever wins the presidency usually loses Congress in the midterm elections. That's a very, very high likelihood thing. But you know, no one wants to lose elections. So they want to do whatever they can to try to improve their chances. Now, we had a taste of this just last week when the president announced 1776 bonus payments to all service employees. And of course, he's trying to push for $2,000 a year of refund checks to the American public.
再说一次，这对市场来说是个好消息。看起来这个人正在为财政刺激做准备。明年是中期选举。从历史上看，赢得总统职位的一方通常会在中期选举中失去国会，这是一个非常有可能发生的事情。但你知道，没有人想在选举中失利，所以他们想方设法提高自己的胜算。上周我们已经初步感受到了这一点，当时总统宣布向所有服务员工发放1776美元的奖金。当然，他还在努力推动向美国公众每年发放2000美元的退款支票。
I don't know if they can do it. But that kind of shows his thinking. He wants to do fiscal stimulus. He wants to boost the market. He wants to see if he can get elected, at least not elected. If the Republicans can continue to hold Congress, which is very difficult, given the setup, given historical trends, and of course, given his polling numbers, the president has not been doing very well when it comes to polling. Now, an interesting observation that Bitson De La War made on his podcast with Kevin Muir on the Market Hoto, which is a great podcast that I recommend, is that it seems like as the politics change, the stakes go much higher.
我不知道他们能不能做到。但这可以看出他的想法。他想进行财政刺激，希望推动市场发展，以期能够当选，或者至少让共和党继续掌控国会。不过，考虑到当前的局势、历史趋势，以及他的民调表现，这非常困难。在民调方面，总统的表现一直不佳。现在，有一个有趣的观察是，Bitson De La War在与Kevin Muir合作的Market Hoto播客中提到，随着政治形势的变化，利益关系变得更加复杂。我推荐大家去听这个很棒的播客。
And so there's more of an impetus to not lose elections. For example, who was the current president in Brazil, a president Lula, where was president Lula before he was president? Well, Jail. Who was the former president of Brazil, president Bolsonaro? Where is he today? Jail. And you know, this is kind of like it seems like it's kind of like the Game of Thrones, right? As Cersei Lannister, memorably said, you win or you die.
因此，为了不在选举中失败，有了更多的动力。举个例子，现任巴西总统卢拉，他在当总统之前在哪里呢？在监狱。而前任巴西总统博索纳罗，他现在在哪里呢？也在监狱。这种情况有点像《权力的游戏》中的一幕。正如瑟曦·兰尼斯特那句著名的话：不是胜利，就是死亡。
And so the trend seems to be that when you have power, you persecute your political enemies. And so when you lose power, there's a highlight because that bad things happen to you. And this is really common in countries. I pointed out in Brazil, but it happens a lot all over the world. South Korea, for example, very common for former presidents to end up in jail. In Taiwan, a former president is also in jail for corruption. And of course, it even happens in places like France, former president Nicholas Sarkozy spent a few weeks in jail as well.
这种趋势似乎是，当你拥有权力时，你会打压你的政治敌人。而当你失去权力时，就会变得显眼，因为坏事也会落到你头上。这种情况在很多国家都很常见。我提到了巴西，但全球各地都有类似的情况发生。以韩国为例，前总统入狱是很常见的事情。在台湾，一位前总统因为腐败也入狱。当然，即使在法国这样的地方，也会发生这种情况，前总统尼古拉·萨科齐也曾被监禁了几周。
So what I observe is that in the past few years, say, so looking at what president Trump has been doing, I used to find lawsuits against Patricia James, James Comey. So very much using the legal system to carry out some settlesome political disputes. Now to be fair, this also happened to him when he was running for president. He remember he had all sorts of people come out and launch all sorts of lawsuits against them. Patricia James, memorably tried to, you know, causing troubles for a loan that president got from Deutsche Bank, where president allegedly inflated his real estate asset holding it to get a better loan. But of course, you know, everyone does that. The bank conducts their own due diligence. And the loan was repaid. This is something that everyone does. And but the president was seeing it out for it, right?
我观察到，过去几年里，例如看看特朗普总统的行为，我过去曾对Patricia James和James Comey提起诉讼。这实际上是利用法律系统来解决一些政治纠纷。公平地说，这种情况在他竞选总统时也发生在他身上。他记得有各种人跳出来对他提起各种诉讼。尤其是Patricia James，曾试图给他制造麻烦，涉及他从德意志银行获得的一笔贷款，声称总统夸大了他的房地产资产以获得更好的贷款。不过，当然，大家都这么做。银行会进行自己的尽职调查，而且贷款也已偿还。这是每个人都会做的事情，但总统却因此受到关注，对吗？
So oftentimes what happens when you have politically motivated prosecutions isn't that they so much that they vend a lot, which that happens as well. But selective persecution, selective prosecution, where things that would have normally never been prosecuted, end up being prosecuted, right? The enormous amount of laws, nobody can really fully stay in compliance. So, you know, show me the man and I'll show you the the law and fracture or something like that. So it seems like the trend in the United States is more of a panellation of the legal system. And so no one wants to lose. And so they're going to do everything they can to try to pump the market up.
在政治动机的起诉中，常见的情况并不是仅仅因为他们大量起诉（尽管这种情况也发生），而是选择性迫害和选择性起诉。这种情况下，一些通常不会被起诉的事情反而被起诉。因为法律条文繁多，几乎没有人能完全遵循所有法律。所以有一句话说：“给我一个人，我就能找到他犯的法律错误。” 在美国，似乎有一种将法律系统复杂化的趋势。没有人愿意失败，因此他们会竭尽所能地推动市场走强。
So for me, I just can't be bearish in this scenario. Like policy is shifting towards accommodation, even though the chart does look a bit top. Even though I believe that AI is kind of a huge bubble. And it when it deflates, it will take the major indexes down since so much of the indexes are these, you know, these max seven tech names. We do see some some violent rotations right now. You see commodities right now. It's mostly like, you know, gold, silver, related stuff, but in aluminum and steel, you also see these industrial models doing well. So and copper as well. So you do see a bit of a rotation under the surface. But again, the indexes are just really tech heavy.
所以，对我来说，在这种情况下我很难持悲观态度。尽管图表看起来有些见顶，但政策正在向宽松方向转变。我虽然觉得人工智能有点像个巨大的泡沫，当它破裂时会拖累主要指数下跌，因为这些指数中有很大一部分是由那些顶尖的七大科技公司构成的。我们现在确实看到了一些激烈的轮动。你可以看到大宗商品，主要是黄金、白银相关的东西，但铝和钢也表现不错。铜也表现得不错。因此，虽然表面上看指数仍然被科技股占据，但实际上是存在一些轮动的。
And so we do, if you do have this, an AI bubble pop, it will, it will impact indexes. So, you know, base cases, I think that, you know, we're going to go higher, at least in the first half of the year. And the second half of the year, though, again, that's a lot of time. Maybe that's time for the AI bubble to pop. Maybe at that time, the market is becoming increasingly concerned about potentially the president losing Congress. And in that case, he also loses a lot of leverage to stimulate. And so maybe they're pressing out. Let's, you know, let's waste the boost market.
如果出现人工智能泡沫破裂的情况，确实会影响到指数表现。我的基本看法是，今年上半年市场会有所上升。然而，下半年形势就不太确定了。有可能在那时，人工智能泡沫会破裂。市场可能会越来越担心总统可能失去国会的支持。在这种情况下，总统也失去了很多刺激经济的手段。因此，市场可能会遇冷，我们也许会看到市场的上涨势头放缓。
Maybe as I've talked about many times, that the dollar continues to weaken. And maybe we have foreign investors maybe rebalance out a little bit out of the US, since they are very huge heavy. So I do think that next year is going to be a down year in the markets, just ballpark it, let's say, uh, 6500. So 500 lower than we are today. Again, just just guessing here, just, I think we'll have a ball is how year, but my instinct is that if you just, you know, stayed in cash the next year out of the S&P, you probably feel positive at the end of the year. So let's put 6500 down for the S&P 500.
或许正如我多次提到的，美元可能会继续走弱。也许外国投资者会稍微减少对美国市场的投资，因为他们的持仓非常大。所以我确实认为明年股市可能会下跌，大概估计一下，比如说，呃，到6500点。也就是比我们今天低500点。再次强调，这只是猜测而已，我认为明年市场会比较波动，但我的直觉是，如果你在明年将资金保留在现金中而不是投资于标普500指数，你可能会在年底时感到乐观。因此，我们假设明年标普500指数会降到6500点。
Next, let's go to gold. Now, man, gold has been really on a tear. Now, if you look at it's a little brother silver, as if recording silver is up 7% on the day. It's just going parabolic. Now, there are many, many narratives for this. It does seem like there is a squeeze for physical in silver at least. Again, globally, a lot of fiscal deficits. Maybe the US is going to cut rates more and so forth. So that there are good fundamental factors for this. But at the end of the day, if you just know a little bit about trading, about human psychology, it looks like it's going for a blow off top, right?
接下来，让我们谈谈黄金。最近，黄金的表现确实非常突出。而黄金的小兄弟白银呢，根据目前的记录，白银单日涨幅达到7%。它的走势简直像是垂直上升。对此有许多解释。其中之一是白银实物市场似乎正面临供应紧张的问题。此外，全球范围内财政赤字很高，美国可能会进一步降息等，这些都是可能的基本因素。但归根结底，如果你对交易和人类心理有一点了解，看起来这像是即将达到一个疯狂的顶部，对吧？
And so I want to be positive on the precious metals, but when I see something like this, silver going up 7% of the day on a day, it's going to burn out, right? It's going to surge, it's going parabolic. I don't know how high I can go. This is purely in something about, it's purely about trading psychology, herd psychology here. So it makes me really cautious. Now, at the end of the day, I still believe silver, gold are going to have positive years. But seeing all this volatility, seeing all this upward parabolic action, it makes me uncomfortable. So that tells me that we have a lot of leverage, fragility.
所以，我想对贵金属保持乐观，但当我看到这样的情况时，比如白银在一天之内上涨了7%，我会觉得可能会出现疲软的情况吧？它正在急剧上涨，呈抛物线式上涨。我不知道它能涨多高。这纯粹是关于交易心理学和羊群效应。所以这让我非常谨慎。不过，总的来说，我仍然相信银和金会有积极的增长。但看到这些波动，这种急剧上升的动作，让我有些不安。它告诉我，我们存在很多杠杆和脆弱性。
We're probably going to consolidate for probably good part of the year after this parabolic being blows off. So my best guess, gold ends the year higher next year. Say five, no, sorry, 5,000. So we're around, we're actually 4,500, right? About 4,500. So 5,000. So, yeah, but I don't think it's going to be a swift and I don't, I think it's going to be choppy because a lot of stuff is happening.
在经过这一波抛物线式的上涨后，我们可能将在今年的大部分时间内进入整固期。我的最佳猜测是，黄金会在明年年底上涨。大概会到5,000，不，抱歉，是5,000美元。也就是说，我们目前大概在4,500美元，对吧？大约4,500美元。所以，5,000美元。但是，我认为这不会是一个快速的过程，我觉得这个过程会比较波动，因为有很多事情在发生。
Okay, lastly, let's talk about rates. Now, this is the part that I think is going to be the most interesting thing. Now, the present is very clear, right? He gives you his Trump doctrine. The Trump doctrine, as he lays out, is that all these central bankers, South-Prolish, whenever the market goes up, they start hiking rates to try to hit it down. That doesn't make sense. We don't want to people who do that. We want people who, you know, make the market higher.
好的，最后我们来说说利率。我觉得这是最有趣的部分。现在的情况很明确，对吧？他提出了他的特朗普主义。按照他的说法，特朗普主义就是，当市场上涨时，那些自以为是的央行行长就开始加息，希望抑制市场。这种做法不合逻辑。我们不需要这样做的人，我们需要那些让市场上涨的人。
We want people to cut rates. And it's basically a litmus test. If you want to be fed share under the Trump administration, you have to be, you have to be committed to lower rates. And again, we have Governor Mayer in there, President's Council of Economic Advisor on the Fed as governor for a few months. And what does he advocate? Big rate cuts, right? If you look at the Donald plot, he's the guy who always wants to do basis wind cuts.
我们希望人们降低利率。这基本上是一个试金石。如果你想在特朗普政府下被提名为美联储理事，你就必须承诺支持降低利率。我们有州长梅尔在那里，他曾在总统经济顾问委员会工作并在美联储担任州长几个月。他提倡什么呢？大幅削减利率，对吧？如果你看看唐纳德的计划，他总是支持进行基础点的削减。
So the president wants lower rate cuts. Anybody appointed by him is going to want more rate cuts lower rates as well. Now, and my full belief is that that is what's going to happen. We're going to get more rate cuts than the market is pressing it. Market thinks that maybe we'll cut to about 3% next year. My base case is that we cut to about 2.5 next year. And so I think the market is not appreciating just how many cuts a Trump Fed can get.
所以总统希望利率降低。任何由他任命的人也会希望进一步降低利率。现在，我完全相信这将会发生。我们可能会看到比市场预期更多的降息。市场认为明年可能降至大约3%，但我个人预测可能会降至2.5%左右。因此，我认为市场没有充分意识到一个由特朗普领导的美联储会有多少次降息。
And, you know, there's all sorts of talking. Oh, it's not just the chair. I go all these presidents and so forth. But, you know, the way that I look at how the world works. President much more influential has the support of Congress. And what I my sense is that, you know, when you're looking at the government, the ultimate constraint is is political is political capital political.
你知道，会有各种各样的说法。哦，不只是椅子（可能指职位或权力地位）。我还要去处理所有这些总统之类的事情。但是，你知道，我观察世界运作的方式时，会觉得总统要有影响力，就需要国会的支持。而我感觉，当你在看政府运作时，最大的限制实际上是政治的，是政治资本。
Well, does the public support what you're doing? What I find really interesting is that even as the president is, you know, clamoring for rate cuts, you don't really hear anyone in the Democratic party just opposing this so much. My sense is that rate cuts are broadly popular among the public, regardless if you are a Democrat or Republican, because a lot of people are suffering. They want to buy homes.
那么，公众支持你们的行动吗？我觉得很有趣的是，即使总统在强烈要求降息，你几乎听不到民主党内有人强烈反对这件事。我的感觉是，降息在公众中普遍受欢迎，不论是民主党还是共和党的人，因为很多人都在受苦，他们想买房。
They feel like they're falling behind under car payments. And so they want lower rates as well. So this lower rating is kind of something the public wants. And so you're not going to get a lot of pushback. And so if the president will do whatever he needs to do to get a rate slower, I think that there will not be enough pushback to stop him. So we are going to get big cuts next year.
他们觉得自己的车贷还款跟不上。因此，他们希望降低利率。所以，公众普遍希望看到这种较低的利率。因此，你不会看到很多反对意见。所以，如果总统采取行动降低利率，我认为不会有足够的反对力量来阻止他。因此，明年我们将看到大幅降息。
So, even though we're going to get big cuts next year, that doesn't completely flow through to the 10 year. Again, the 10 year is largely, largely expected path of policy, but you also have things like, you know, term premium, soft-sweets and so forth. So my best guess is that the 10 year ends lower, let's say about 5%, sorry, 4%.
所以，即使我们明年会进行大幅削减，但这并不会完全影响十年的情况。十年期的情况主要取决于政策的预期路径，但还有其他因素，比如期限溢价和软性因素等。因此，我的最佳猜测是，十年期的利率会降低，大约到5%左右，对不起，是4%。
So we're about 4.15. So lower to about 4% at the end of next year. So a lot of people are, I just want to address something really quick. A lot of people are like, no, now if the Trump Fed cuts rates really low, you know, the bond market will be full, we'll have this big bond Fisuality, ESPSO and rates will explode higher.
所以我们大约在4.15%左右。因此到明年年底会降低到大约4%。我想很快地解释一下，有很多人认为，如果特朗普政府下的美联储将利率降得非常低，债券市场会供过于求，我们将面临巨大的债券波动，这可能导致利率急剧上升。
Now, from my view, that is definitely not how it works. Now, rates obviously largely expected path of Fed policy. Now, a few months ago, last year, we had an episode where the Fed cut rates and we had the 10 year actually rise. It's actually really easy to see what happened there. If you look at the short-term interest rate futures, what happened was the market was afraid, the Fed was overtightening and was pricing in a recession.
从我的角度来看，事情绝对不是这样的。现在，利率很大程度上是根据美联储的政策预期来决定的。几个月前，也就是去年，我们经历了这样一个情况：美联储降息，但10年期国债收益率却上涨。其实，这个现象很容易理解。如果查看短期利率期货，就会发现市场当时担心美联储的政策过于收紧，并开始将经济衰退的可能性计入价格中。
And as the Fed got ahead of that, priced in, got ahead of that, the market actually priced out a future rate cuts. The market became less concerned about a recession. And so they priced out future cuts and sell the 10 year rose. So it's, if you look at the short-term interest rate futures, it's actually quite clear what happened there.
美联储采取了提前行动，市场已经将这一点反映在价格中，市场实际上不再预期未来会降息。市场对经济衰退的担忧减弱，因此不再预计未来会降息，导致10年期国债收益率上升。如果你查看短期利率期货市场，可以很清楚地看到这个变化。
Now, something else I would really like to emphasize is that this entire mental model about, you know, short-term interest rates go low, inflation comes roaring back and then bond market goes out of control. That's just obviously obviously not how the world works. So I full stop. We have decades and decades of experience to show that's not how the world works.
现在，我想特别强调的一点是，关于短期利率下降、通货膨胀迅速回升、债券市场失控的这种思维模式显然不是世界运作的方式。这显然不是事实。所以我要说的是：这不是世界的运作方式。我们有几十年的经验可以证明这一点。
Now, think back just after the Great Financial Crisis. Interst rates are at zero, Fed buying bonds massively, interest rates super low. And yet there was like, below target inflation for a decade, like the Fed desperately trying to get inflation up, but they just couldn't. You can look across this ocean and look at Japan as well, right? They have low inflation, disinflation, deflation for decades and decades. Now, they're not even doing, you know, QE, they're doing negative interest rates, they're buying equities and they still couldn't get this, I get inflation up. So the connection between short-term interest rates and you cannot make activity inflation, that's something that's just not that strong, right? We have decades and decades of experience that shows that.
现在，回想一下大金融危机之后的情况。利率接近零，美联储大规模购买债券，利率非常低。然而，通胀率在接下来的十年里一直低于目标水平，美联储竭力想把通胀率提高，但就是无法实现。你可以看看日本的情况，他们多年来一直经历低通胀、通胀放缓甚至通货紧缩。现在，他们甚至不仅仅是量化宽松，还实行负利率政策，并购买股票，但依然无法提高通胀率。因此，短期利率和促活通胀之间的联系并不是那么强，我们有几十年的经验可以证明这一点。
Furthermore, more recently, we got short-term interest rates up all the way to 5%. Everyone is expecting a recession and we did not get a recession, right? GDP continues to hum along. So you have to adjust your mental model by this very, very obvious evidence, but that's just not how the world works. And it's really easy to see, let's say, just to think about, if you think about it a little bit, have a little bit of business experience to see why it's not how the world works. Let's say you're a business, right? Your interest rate expense is one of your costs, one of your expenses, but it's only one of many. You have labor costs, you have material costs, you have rent, you got to pay regulatory fees and advertising, marketing, so forth. And different businesses are going to have a different proportion of this, but for the most businesses, interest expense is not going to be the biggest expense.
此外，最近我们把短期利率提高到了5%。大家都在预期经济衰退的到来，但衰退并没有发生，对吧？国内生产总值（GDP）仍在稳步增长。所以，你必须根据这样非常明显的证据来调整你的思维模式，但事情实际上并不是这样运作的。而且，如果你稍微思考一下，或者有一点商业经验，你就会很容易明白为什么事情不是这样运作的。假设你是一家企业，对吧？利息支出是成本之一，但只是众多成本的一部分。你还有人工成本、材料成本、租金，此外还要支付监管费用、广告和市场推广费用等。不同的企业在这些方面的比例会有所不同，但对于大多数企业来说，利息支出并不是最大的开销。
If you're a rulesidian investor, maybe if you're building a huge factory, yeah, it's going to be a big part of your expenses, but most businesses aren't. We are in a service-oriented economy, right? So that's just not how that works. But more importantly, it's also about the top line as well. If you're a business, you're going to think about your revenue, right? What is your expected growth in market share? How popular do you think your product will be? And so forth. So even if interest rates are very high, your interest rates are high, but if you think that revenues are going to go higher, you're going to have great demand for your product, that you're still going to do your business, right? So it's just interest rate expense, short-term interest rates, very influential for the market broadly, but very obviously just one part of any business and just not that impact for our economic activity.
如果你是一个以规则为导向的投资者，可能在建一个大工厂时，利率会是你支出中的重要部分，但大多数企业不是这样的。我们现在是一个服务导向的经济，对吧？所以情况并非如此。但是更重要的是收入问题。作为企业，你肯定要考虑收入，你预计的市场份额增长是多少？你认为你的产品会有多受欢迎？等等。所以即使利率很高，如果你预计收入会上升，产品需求很旺盛，你仍然会继续经营业务。利率是一种支出，短期利率对整体市场有很大影响，但显然它只是企业运营中的一个方面，对我们的经济活动的影响并不那么大。
Here's a really interesting thought experiment to think about. Let's say tomorrow, G Powell, just everyone comes out, you know, stands on stage and just tells everyone, guys, I'm going to change the inflation target. It was 2%, but you know, I had a conversation with my friend, President Trump, and I suddenly I saw the light. This is just not the way to run the economy. I want the inflation target to be 5%. What do you think would happen? Does the bond market go crazy? The economy implode. Some people will think that, but I think if that were the case, you would have a massive, massive rally in the bond market, because what that tells you is that the Fed is, uh, weight low, its inflation target. So what is it going to do? It's going to cut rates, maybe cut to zero.
这是一种非常有趣的思维实验。假设明天，G. Powell（即美联储主席）站到台上，向所有人宣布：“各位，我打算改变通胀目标。以前是2%，但我和我的朋友特朗普总统聊了聊，突然有了新的领悟。我觉得这样管理经济行不通，我想把通胀目标调整到5%。”你觉得会发生什么？债券市场会不会大乱，经济会不会崩溃？有些人可能会这么想，但我认为如果真出现这种情况，债券市场会出现巨大的反弹。因为这意味着美联储对通胀目标放低要求。接下来呢？他们可能会降息，甚至降到零。
And if you have that huge, huge rate cut priced in for the next few years, that's going to drag the long end down in a big way. Now you can also think, whoa, but the Fed is saying that he wants to 5% inflation target. Of course, we got to sell the long end, but here's the thing. Can the Fed achieve its target? But the obvious, obvious thing you see from decades, from the past few decades, is no. A centric bank has enormous power over interest rates, financial markets, but on the real economy, its power is limited. It cannot achieve its alone, achieve its inflation target. So that cannot be priced in with certainty. So in any case, next year, I think it's going to be a good year for bonds. I think we'll get my Trump Fed going to put rates much lower.
如果你对未来几年的大幅降息有所预期，这将大幅压低长期债券。然而，你可能会想，哇，美联储说它希望达到5%的通胀目标。当然，我们得卖出长期债券，但是问题是：美联储能实现这个目标吗？但从过去几十年来看，显而易见的事实是：不能。央行在利率和金融市场上有巨大的影响力，但对实体经济的影响有限。它无法单凭一己之力实现其通胀目标。因此这一点不能被确定地反映在市场中。所以，无论如何，我认为明年对债券来说是个好年头。我认为我们会看到我的特朗普风格的美联储大幅降低利率。
And I'd say, you know, 10 year will go down, term premium will go up, say about 4%. In any case, again, these are just my best views based on what I have today. Now I do change my views regularly, and I update that in my market view portfolio, which I have on my website. Now you'll see in the market view portfolio this year that, for the most most of the year, protected everyone from the huge, huge liberation day apocalypse that big 20% drawdown, but made a mistake and thought that we would go lower and just kind of miss that breakdown in a big way. However, we did buy back during the November dip, but more importantly, the market portfolio was tremendously bullish gold and had a huge allocation earlier in the year.
我会说，十年期债券的收益率可能会下降，而期限溢价可能会上升，估计大约是4%。无论如何，这只是基于我目前掌握的信息做出的最佳看法。我会定期更新我的观点，并在我的网站上的市场观点组合中进行更新。今年在市场观点组合中，你会看到我们在大部分时间里保护了大家免于一次重大灾难，即解放日事件带来的20%大幅回调。但是，我们在预测市场进一步下跌时犯了错误，错过了一个重要的机会。不过，我们在11月的市场回调中买入了，同时更重要的是，我们的市场组合在年初时就对黄金非常乐观，并做出了大量配置。
And so if you look at the performance here today, we still beat the S&P 500 by 10%. And so you can get these equity calls wrong and still be okay.
所以，如果你看看今天的表现，我们仍然比标准普尔500指数高出10%。因此，即使你的股票选择有误，也仍然可以保持不错的表现。
So hopefully we'll do well again next year. Have no idea, no promises, but again, I think it's going to be an interesting year.
希望明年我们能够继续表现良好。虽然不知道具体会怎样，也不能做出任何承诺，但我相信明年会是有趣的一年。
All right, talk to you all next week.
好的，下周再跟你们聊。