Markets Weekly January 3, 2026
发布时间 2026-01-03 19:33:53 来源
Hello, my friends. Today is January 3rd, 2026. I want to wish everyone a happy new year. Now, before we begin, I want to bring to your attention that I've noticed that some of you are not receiving weekly updates from my blog posts. I've looked into this and discovered that this is a technical problem. And hopefully I will have this resolved by Monday. But remember, you can always access my posts on my website. And of course, whenever I have a new post, I will tweet about it on Twitter.
你好，我的朋友们。今天是2026年1月3日，我祝大家新年快乐。在我们开始之前，我想提醒大家，有些人没有收到我博客的每周更新。我调查了一下，发现这是一个技术问题。我希望能在星期一之前解决。不过，请记住，你们随时可以在我的网站上查看我的文章。当然，每次我有新文章时，我都会在推特上发布消息。
Okay, so this week, I actually had initially planned to make it a geopolitical episode since we had so many big things happening in the world of geopolitics the past week. Little did I know what we would have this huge, huge event that happened this morning where it seems like President Trump has successfully taken out President Maduro of Venezuela. So this is definitely an earthquake in the world of geopolitics. So we got to talk about what happened and what it all means for the economy and for markets.
好的，这周我本来计划做一期关于地缘政治的节目，因为上周世界地缘政治领域发生了很多大事。没想到的是，今早发生了一件大事件，看起来特朗普总统成功推翻了委内瑞拉总统马杜罗。这无疑是地缘政治世界的一次重大震动。因此，我们需要讨论一下发生了什么事，以及这对经济和市场意味着什么。
And also we have to talk a little bit about silver as well. So silver totally imploded in the beginning of the week. There are some concrete causes for that, although it did recover a little bit more. So first though, let's talk about what happened in the world of geopolitics. So I think there are four theaters in the world. And in each geopolitical theater, we had some pretty big developments from the Far East to Latin America, to Europe, to the Middle East, starting with the Far East.
我们还需要谈谈白银的问题。 本周开始时，白银市场彻底崩溃，尽管之后稍有回升。首先，让我们来讨论一下地缘政治领域发生的事情。我认为全球地缘政治可以分为四个主要区域，每个区域最近都有一些重大进展。这些区域包括远东、拉丁美洲、欧洲和中东。我们先从远东开始。
So earlier in the week, last week, we had China make pretty big military exercises all around Taiwan. And what they seem to be projecting is that they could easily block it Taiwan. And if they were to block it Taiwan, again Taiwan is an island. So it's not self-sufficient in many things like oil. The Taiwanese economy would easily crumble and it would be the end of that pretty quickly. Now the broader context of course is that not too long ago, you had Prime Minister the Kachi of Japan make supportive statements for Taiwan that really angered the Chinese.
上周早些时候，中国在台湾周围进行了大规模的军事演习。看起来他们似乎在展示可以轻易封锁台湾。而如果他们真的这样做，台湾作为一个岛屿，在很多方面都无法自给自足，比如石油。台湾的经济会很容易崩溃，这种状况可能会很快结束。更广泛的背景是，不久前，日本首相曾对台湾发表了支持性的言论，这些言论非常激怒了中国。
And you know, President Trump actually seemed to reportedly intervene to it, maybe just slightly suggest the Japanese Prime Minister to maybe moderate her stance a little bit. Although by all reports, Japan still stands in support of Taiwan in case of potential military conflict. For context here, Taiwan was once a Japanese colony. Many people in Taiwan remember that period positively and look upon Japan in a very positive light.
据报道，特朗普总统似乎确实在这件事中进行了干预，可能只是轻微地建议日本首相稍微缓和一下她的立场。不过，据各方面报道，日本在潜在的军事冲突中仍然支持台湾。背景是，台湾曾是日本的殖民地，许多台湾人对那段时期抱有积极的回忆，并对日本持非常正面的看法。
But of course, if you recall from the United States' most recent national security strategy, the US is basically viewing the world as multipolar where every country has your sphere of influence very clearly. The United States will have a Trump corollary to the monologue doctrine Latin America, North America will be under the United States. And you know, I think the implication of course is that the far east, at least when it comes to Taiwan, will be under China and maybe Russia will have Ukraine.
当然，如果你记得美国最近的国家安全战略，美国基本上将世界视为一个多极化的格局，每个国家都有自己明确的势力范围。美国将把拉丁美洲和北美洲纳入自己的影响范围，类似于特朗普对门罗主义的延伸。同时，我认为这意味着在远东地区，至少在涉及台湾的问题上，将处于中国的影响之下，而俄罗斯可能会掌控乌克兰。
Now moving on to Eastern Europe earlier in the week, Russia loudly complained that Ukraine would actually launch a very mass scale assassination attempt on President Putin. Apparently there was a large fleet of Ukrainian drones launched and Russia ledges of these drones were targeted towards where where President Putin was and it was an assassination attempt Putin actually complained to Trump, which then complained to President Zelensky.
现在回到本周早些时候的东欧，俄罗斯大声抱怨乌克兰将对总统普京发起大规模的暗杀企图。据称，大批乌克兰无人机已经出动，俄罗斯宣称这些无人机的目标是普京所在的位置，是一次暗杀行动。普京实际上向特朗普进行了抱怨，随后特朗普向总统泽连斯基抱怨了此事。
Now the US seems that reports suggest have determined that this actually was not an assassination attempt that maybe they were targeting other military installations in Russia. But at the end of the day, if Russia is claiming this and perceiving this, then again, that is an escalation in the Russia-Ukrain war and suggests that peace talks are not going well and maybe it could serve as a pretext for further military escalation by the Russians.
现在，美国的报告似乎表明，这实际上并不是一次暗杀企图，他们可能是针对俄罗斯的其他军事设施。但是，最终，如果俄罗斯声称并认定这是一次暗杀企图，那么这就意味着俄乌战争再次升级，并暗示和平谈判进展不顺，这可能成为俄罗斯进一步军事升级的借口。
Moving on to the Middle East, also another very interesting development. Now you had Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel basically just fly down to Mar-a-Lago, hang out with the President the fifth time he's done this this year. That's kind of a record. And what usually happens of course is that after these discussions, you have some kind of geopolitical escalation.
转到中东，这也是一个非常有趣的发展。现在，以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡基本上飞到海湖庄园，与总统会面，这是他今年第五次这样做。这可算是一个纪录。而通常在这些讨论之后，就会出现某种地缘政治的升温。
Now to no secret what Prime Minister Netanyahu would like is to have more military action on Iran, but of course they can't do that without the support of the United States. Last time they attacked Iran, Iran retaliated with missiles and a lot of those missiles were intercepted by US support. And so they really need the US to protect them to be able to attack Iran.
现在已经不是秘密，总理内塔尼亚胡希望对伊朗采取更多的军事行动，但他们当然需要美国的支持才能这样做。上次他们袭击伊朗时，伊朗用导弹进行了反击，其中很多导弹是在美国的支持下被拦截的。因此，他们真正需要美国的保护才能攻击伊朗。
Now reporting suggests that right now what Netanyahu was saying is that, you know, Iran, they have these ballistic missiles, they can attack Israel, they are threat to us, we got to go and take out that capability. Now notice now that the goal posts are moving. Initially, Iran could never have nuclear weapons. And so we need to take that out and you know, President Trump went and bombed the nuclear facilities in Iran. Now the standard is being lowered. It's not that Iran can't have nuclear weapons is that they can't have ballistic missiles. And if the President agrees without lower standard, then yes, that he's green lighting more military attacks in the Middle East.
现在有报道指出，内塔尼亚胡表示，伊朗拥有弹道导弹，可以攻击以色列，对我们构成威胁，我们必须消除这种能力。请注意，目标似乎正在改变。最初的立场是伊朗绝不能拥有核武器，因此我们需要消除这种威胁，特朗普总统也轰炸了伊朗的核设施。现在标准被降低了，不再是伊朗不能拥有核武器，而是他们不能拥有弹道导弹。如果总统同意这个较低的标准，那么实际上是默许了更多在中东的军事行动。
But of course, the most interesting geopolitical action we have is in Latin America. Remember, not too long ago, the Trump administration told the entire world that Latin America belonged to us. So we are going to call the shots here. Now, earlier in the week, the President surprised the world by revealing that the CIA actually carried covert operations on Venezuela and soil. Now, everyone knew that the US had a navy presence right outside of Venezuela that they had been blowing at Venezuelan boats. But until earlier in the week, they had not done anything on Venezuelan soil.
当然，我们最有趣的地缘政治动态在拉丁美洲。记得不久前，特朗普政府告诉全世界，拉丁美洲属于我们。因此，我们将在这里主导局势。现在，本周早些时候，总统令世人震惊地披露，CIA实际上曾在委内瑞拉境内进行秘密行动。大家都知道，美国在委内瑞拉附近海域有海军存在，并且一直在对委内瑞拉的船只进行威慑。但是直到本周早些时候，他们才开始在委内瑞拉境内采取行动。
So that was a very clear escalation. CIA bombing facilities in Venezuelan ports. This morning, it was revealed that around 2 a.m., US forces basically flew in to where President Maduro, Venezuela, was staying, basically kidnapped him and his wife, put him on a ship. The US has Eugeema. And that ship is now on route to New York, where President Maduro will face the US courts. Now, throughout this operation, it was only a few hours. There were reportedly zero US casualties when the US helicopter was hit, but that US helicopter continued to fly when it was able to return to its ships. So this was an amazingly precise attack and amazingly successful.
这是一场明显的升级行动。中情局在委内瑞拉的港口设施进行轰炸。今天早晨，有消息称大约在凌晨2点，美国部队飞到委内瑞拉总统马杜罗的住处，绑架了他和他的妻子，并将他们送上了一艘船。美国拥有尤基马号船。这艘船现在正前往纽约，马杜罗总统将在那里面对美国法院。在整个行动过程中，只用了几个小时。据报道，当美国直升机被击中时，并没有造成美方人员伤亡，而且这架直升机在能够返回军舰后继续飞行。这次行动非常精确，而且取得了惊人的成功。
Now, by orchestrating this, it all by guarantees that the Major regime has collapsed and that there will be regime change in Venezuela. So this is definitely not in line with the America first ethos that President Trump often campaigned on, where the US would not intervene in farm wars, nation building, and all that. But it does fall under the Trump corollary of having more power over the Latin America. Now, why does Trump do this? I think some context is helpful here. So, Venezuela, if you look on a map, is actually pretty large country. It's in South America. The land mass is about, say, 20, 30 percent larger than Texas and has a population of about 30 million about the same population as the state of Texas.
现在，通过策划这一切，几乎可以保证马杜罗政权已经垮台，委内瑞拉将出现政权更迭。这显然与特朗普总统经常在竞选中宣扬的"美国优先"理念不符，因为"美国优先"强调美国不参与海外战争和国家建设。然而，这确实符合特朗普在拉丁美洲增强影响力的不成文原则。那么，特朗普为什么这样做呢？我认为这里有所背景是很有帮助的。委内瑞拉实际上是一个相当大的国家，如果你看一下地图就会发现，它位于南美洲，其陆地面积大约比德克萨斯州大20%到30%，人口约为三千万，这与德克萨斯州的人口大致相同。
Venezuela, of course, is most known for having a lot of oil. According to studies, it has the largest oil-reproven oil reserves in the entire world. So, it has the potential to be an oil superpower. However, if you look at its output data over the past decade, you notice that Venezuela is actually outputting much less oil today than it did a decade ago. So, that decline in oil output largely has to do with just the tremendous, tremendous, mismanagement of the Venezuelan economy. If you look at a chart of Venezuela and GDP, a decade ago, things were actually going really well.
委内瑞拉当然是以拥有大量石油而闻名的。据研究显示，委内瑞拉拥有全球最大的可再验证石油储备，因此具备成为石油超级大国的潜力。然而，如果查看过去十年的产量数据，你会发现委内瑞拉如今的石油产量远低于十年前。产量下降的主要原因是委内瑞拉经济的严重管理不善。如果查看委内瑞拉的国内生产总值（GDP）图表，十年前的情况其实还是不错的。
Now, oil prices were going up. Venezuela was pumping a lot of oil and the country, the people were getting much wealthier. Now, that all ran into problems when the oil price of oil collapsed, and then you had new change in regime and more left-wing regime came to power in Krakis. And they did not do a very good job. And what you see is the complete implosion of the Venezuelan economy. According to the United Nations, about 20 percent of Venezuelans actually fled the country. Now, that's like seven million people. Varo videos at the time would show that many Venezuelans were basically starving. You can see them throwing rocks at cows trying to kill the cow to eat them. It was very much a humanitarian disaster.
现在，石油价格上涨，委内瑞拉大量开采石油，国家和人民变得富裕了许多。然而，当油价暴跌时，情况出现了问题。政权变更后，一个更左翼的政权在加拉加斯上台，他们表现不佳。结果是委内瑞拉经济彻底崩溃。据联合国统计，大约20%的委内瑞拉人离开了这个国家，也就是大约七百万人。那时的一些视频显示，许多委内瑞拉人几乎在挨饿。视频中可以看到他们向牛扔石头，试图杀牛来吃。这的确是一次人道主义灾难。
Now, you have Benio-Soyle and refugees fled the entire world. You have Venezuelan refugees in Chile, in Colombia, Mexico, and of course, in the United States. This was a tremendous, tremendous capacity. You had a country that was doing on the upswing just, just totally destroyed. And of course, the people, Venezuelans did not like that. And ideally, there would be a mechanism for the people to change course, to have a new government course that was naturally through the ballot box. Now, Venezuela did recently, a few years ago, have an election by all counts. President Maduro lost that election in a big way for obvious reasons.
现在，世界各地都有来自委内瑞拉的难民。在智利、哥伦比亚、墨西哥，当然还有美国，都能看到委内瑞拉难民的身影。这是一种巨大的影响力。曾经一个正在崛起的国家，如今却完全被摧毁。当然，委内瑞拉人民对此感到不满。理想情况下，人们应该有一种机制来改变现状，通过投票箱实现政府的更替。几年前，委内瑞拉确实进行了一次大选，在各方看来，马杜罗总统明显输掉了选举，原因显而易见。
But he just decided that he didn't want to leave. And so basically became a de facto dictator of Venezuela. So this is a guy who did a terrible job, ruined the lives of millions of people, ruined his country. And it's just not very popular. However, though, and of course, he's not friends with the Trump administration, he's friends with Russia, Iran, and China, basically, friends with people who are not with Trump, Team USA. So it seems like the motivation for this move is twofold. One, of course, is to strengthen US influence in Latin America. And secondly, of course, is for oil.
但是，他就是决定不想离开。因此，他基本上成为了委内瑞拉的事实上的独裁者。他把国家治理得一团糟，让数百万人的生活陷入困境，并且广受诟病。当然，他与特朗普政府并不是盟友，而是与俄罗斯、伊朗和中国交好，基本上是与不和特朗普、美国一方的人做朋友。所以，这一行动的动机看来有两个方面。首先，当然是为了加强美国在拉丁美洲的影响力。其次，自然是为了石油。
Now, in his press conference after his president is totally blunt. It's not like President Bush going into Iraq and then not so much telling you about the oil, although a lot of US companies having big oil contracts. It's not the US president is telling you today. President Trump is telling me today that Venezuela has lots of oil. And the US is going to have control over it. And it's this operation in Venezuela is not going to cost taxpayer money because the US is going to get paid through oil. So it's very open about it. The US would like to have more control over Venezuelan resources.
现在，在他的新闻发布会上，他的总统非常直言不讳。这不像布什总统当初进入伊拉克时不怎么提及石油，虽然很多美国公司签了大额石油合同。当今的美国总统就不是这样了。特朗普总统今天告诉我，委内瑞拉有大量的石油，美国将会控制这些石油。而且这次在委内瑞拉的行动不会花费纳税人的钱，因为美国会通过石油获得报酬。所以这次行动非常透明，美国希望对委内瑞拉的资源有更多的控制权。
Now a coup attempt has always been telegraphed. Again, you had that military flotilla outside of Venezuela. You also had the US intelligence operations smuggle out Venezuela's opposition leader at Machado smuggled her out into Sweden, where she could get her Nobel Peace Prize, have more international legitimacy. But I think the US has basically changed its mind on that. She was probably a plan B, your plan A, a plan C, or something like that. But maybe looking at how successful the operation was today, the president very openly told everyone that actually the US will run Venezuela. We don't want to be involved with having somebody else get in and we have the same situation that we had for the last long period of years.
现在，一场政变企图往往是明显的。你可以看到，在委内瑞拉外海的军事舰队，还有美国情报机构将委内瑞拉反对派领袖玛查多偷偷送到瑞典，让她可以领取诺贝尔和平奖，以获得更多国际认可。不过，我认为美国基本上改变了主意。她可能是一个备用计划，类似于计划A、计划B或计划C之类的。但或许看了今天行动的成功程度，总统非常公开地告诉大家，美国实际上将控制委内瑞拉。我们不想卷入，导致出现和过去几年一样的局面。
So we are going to run the country until such time as we can do a safe, proper, and judicious transition. Eventually Trump is saying that he will give Venezuela back. But this could be years or decades no one knows when. So it looks like overnight it's not just it was regime change in Venezuela, but the US has a new territory. It will be run by, you know, who knows? A new governor, new prime minister, protector of Venezuela. I'm not sure. But for the foreseeable future, Venezuela will be under US control and eventually it looks like there's going to be more investment into Venezuela and there's going to be more oil flowing out.
所以，我们将暂时管理这个国家，直到能够进行安全、适当和谨慎的过渡。特朗普最终表示，他会把委内瑞拉还回去，但这可能需要几年或几十年，没人知道具体什么时候。所以看起来，一夜之间不仅仅是委内瑞拉的政权更迭，美国好像多了一个新领土。它将由某个新总督、新总理或者委内瑞拉的保护者来管理，我不确定。但是在可预见的未来，委内瑞拉将处于美国的控制之下，并且看起来会有更多的投资进入委内瑞拉，更多的石油将会被开采出来。
So this is a big, big, big geopolitical move and it has some winners and losers. The clear winners, of course, are the US oil companies. They're going to be able to go in and operate on those resources. Shavon was already there. It looks like other people are going to come in as well. So that's very good for the US oil industry. It's going to be very good for inflation and the global consumer. If you have Venezuela there with all this oil, but just kind of not having the infrastructure to be able to extract it, now the supply of oil is going to go up. That's going to be down pressure on oil prices.
这是一个非常重大的地缘政治举动，这其中有一些赢家和输家。显而易见的赢家是美国的石油公司。他们将能够进入并开发这些资源。Shavon（可能指某家石油公司）已经在那里，似乎还会有其他公司加入。这对美国的石油产业来说非常有利。这对抑制通货膨胀和全球消费者也是利好。如果委内瑞拉拥有大量石油资源，但是没有足够的基础设施来开采，现在随着石油供应量的增加，油价将受到下行压力。
Not immediately, of course, it's going to take time to be able to have the facility set up. But you know, in a few years, you can easily see the supply of oil go up, oil prices go down. So this is good for again, the war on inflation. If you remember in January of 2025, Trump actually openly said that his plan to get inflation lower is to get more oil and you have opic pump oil. You have oil prices down a lot and now it looks like this is maybe another part of that. You do have clear losers as well. Now, of course, aside from President Maduro who is now it seems on a ship. You know, it seems like if you look at a chart where Venezuela was selling its oil, a lot of what's going to China.
当然，这不会立即发生，建立设施需要时间。但是你知道，几年后，石油供应可以增加，油价可能会下降。这对抗击通货膨胀是有利的。如果你还记得，在2025年1月，特朗普公开表示，他计划通过增加石油产量来降低通货膨胀。他提到欧佩克增加石油产量，油价大幅下降，现在看来这可能是计划的一部分。当然，也有明显的失败者。除去总统马杜罗，据说他现在在一艘船上。你知道，如果你看一看委内瑞拉的石油销售图表，很多石油最终流向了中国。
Now Venezuela was a staunch ally of China, Russia, and Iran. And so now that team is losing a big ally. Now China is still going to be able to get oil from Venezuela. Now the president was very clear that we're going to pump more oil and we're going to sell it to everyone. So China is still going to get more oil, but they probably won't get it at the same discounted price. Venezuela and oil was sanctioned. They really couldn't go to the global market. And so they had to sell it at a discount to other people.
现在，委内瑞拉曾是中国、俄罗斯和伊朗的坚定盟友。所以现在这个团队失去了一个重要的盟友。尽管如此，中国仍然能够从委内瑞拉获取石油。委内瑞拉总统明确表示，他们将会增加石油产量，并将石油出售给所有人。因此，中国仍将能得到更多的石油，但可能不会再以同样的折扣价格购买到了。委内瑞拉和石油曾受到制裁，无法进入全球市场，因此不得不以折扣价出售给其他国家。
Similar to what Russia does, right? Russia oil was sanctioned. They sell it at a discount to other countries. And so China was getting discounted oil. Now they're not getting discounted oil anymore. China was friends of Venezuela. In fact, reports suggest that they had a Chinese delegation being sent to Venezuela just in a few hours before the operation. Now it looks like they've lost a key ally in Latin America. This of course could also point to trouble for allies of President Maduro, say Cuba, for example, longtime thorn in the side of the US. It doesn't have any oil, but not friends with the US. And of course, Secretary of State Marco Rubio is of Cuban descent. And of course, the Cuban community in the US really doesn't like what's happening in Cuba.
类似于俄罗斯的做法，对吧？俄罗斯的石油被制裁，他们以折扣价将石油出售给其他国家。因此，中国得到了折扣石油。然而，现在他们不再得到折扣石油了。中国曾是委内瑞拉的朋友。实际上，有报道称，就在行动前几个小时，中国派一个代表团前往委内瑞拉。现在看来，他们失去了在拉丁美洲的一个重要盟友。当然，这也可能为马杜罗总统的盟友带来麻烦，比如古巴，一个长期以来一直让美国头疼的国家。古巴没有石油，而且与美国关系不佳。当然，国务卿马可·鲁比奥是古巴后裔。而在美国的古巴社区则非常不满古巴发生的事情。
And so I think huge should be a little bit worried. If you are Iran, you could probably upset as well. You're losing another ally. But it also tells you very clearly that the President is a man of action. He says many things, but he also has done many things as well. Many things other presidents will not have done, right? Directly strike Iran, bombs, huge, huge clamp down on illegal immigration everywhere in the country. Of course strikes on Venezuela. But he's also said other things that he hasn't done yet.
所以我认为“巨大”应该有点担心。如果你是伊朗，你可能也会感到不安，因为你正在失去另一个盟友。但这也很清楚地表明，总统是一个行动派。他说了很多事情，但他也确实做了许多事情，其中许多是其他总统不会做的。比如直接打击伊朗，进行轰炸，全面打击全国各地的非法移民。当然还有对委内瑞拉的打击。不过他也说过一些还没有做的事情。
So let's say that you are the prime minister of Denmark, who of course controls the Greenland. The President has said that Greenland is very, very important to us from a national security standpoint. So does that increase the probability that maybe one day Greenland will have to change hands as well? Of course, the President also made comments about Canada. And we don't know what will happen there. One thing to note though is that strategically speaking, the oil that Venezuela pumps is heavy crude. That's the same stuff that Canada pumps to as well. And right now, Canada has one captain consumer, the United States and the United States is relying upon Canadian heavy crude as well.
假设你是丹麦的首相，当然也就是掌控格陵兰的人。总统曾表示，从国家安全的角度来看，格陵兰对我们非常非常重要。那么，这是否增加了将来某一天格陵兰可能易主的可能性呢？当然，总统也对加拿大发表过意见。我们不知道那边会发生什么。不过需要注意的一点是，从战略角度来看，委内瑞拉开采的石油是重质原油，这和加拿大开采的类型相同。目前，加拿大只有一个主要的消费者，那就是美国，而美国也依赖加拿大的重质原油。
That's what the refiners are optimized for. If you have another source of heavy crude come online from Venezuela, that really, really decreases the bargaining power that Canadian oil companies have. And of course, that is a big problem from a geostrategic way for Canada and maybe why Prime Minister Mark Carney is eager to greenlight another pipeline so that they have other outlets for Canadian oil. So one of the things, of course, you have to think about is that what other thing has Trump kind of obsessed about over and over again, that's lower interest rates.
那就是炼油厂的优化目标。如果委内瑞拉有另一种重质原油上线，这将大大削弱加拿大石油公司的议价能力。当然，从地缘战略的角度来看，这对加拿大来说是一个大问题，这可能也是为什么总理马克·卡尼急于批准另一个管道项目，以便为加拿大的石油找到其他出路。因此，当然，你需要考虑的事情之一是特朗普反复关注的另一个问题，那就是降低利率。
And as I wrote last week, my blog, the market is really not pricing in that Trump will get his way. The market really doesn't seem to think that, you know, prices interest rates the same way they did months ago. So they don't really place probability on President Trump actually getting his way and able to lower interest rates even though the President has done a lot of really obvious moves to try to do that. So I think that continues to be a significant mispricing of the market. So President has a track record of acting on things that he cares a lot about.
就像我上周在博客中写到的，市场实际上并没有预期特朗普会如愿。市场似乎并不认为利率会像几个月前那样调整。因此，他们并不真正认为特朗普总统会成功降低利率，尽管总统已经为此采取了许多非常明显的措施。我认为，这导致了市场的显著误判。特朗普总统过去在非常关心的事情上采取过行动。
So markets will be exciting this next week, guessing that, you know, since it was so effortless, maybe not even that big of an impact. But, you know, if you have oil prices in the future, maybe that's a little bit downward pressure on inflation. Okay, the second thing that I want to talk about, of course, is silver. Now, last week we talked about how silver was actually surging. It was up 10% a week last Friday. When you do something like that, it looks like an obvious, obvious blowoff top.
所以下周的市场会很有趣。我猜，由于这次变化来得如此轻松，可能对整体影响不是太大。不过，你知道的，如果未来油价下降，可能会对通胀产生一定的下行压力。好吧，我想谈的第二件事当然是白银。上周我们讨论了白银的实际飙升情形。上周五白银一周内上涨了10%。当出现这种情况时，看起来就像是一个明显的飞涨冲顶。
And earlier in the week, we did see silver totally, totally implode that there are two concrete drivers of this. One, of course, is that actually one concrete driver of this and another thing we'll talk about. And that is, of course, higher margins from the CME. So professional speculators in silver usually trade through futures. And when you trade through silver futures, you're operating on and regulated exchange. Your counterparty is the exchange.
本周早些时候，我们确实看到白银的价格完全崩溃了，这背后有两个明确的原因。其中一个原因是芝商所（CME）提高了保证金要求。通常情况下，专业的白银投机者通过期货进行交易。而当你通过白银期货交易时，你是在一个受监管的交易所进行操作，对手方是交易所。
So a standard future contract for silver gives you control over 5,000 ounces of silver. So that's, you know, about 30, 350,000 dollars worth of silver. Now, in order to have control over super contract, you have to put up a little bit of margin with the exchange. The reason for this is that the exchange wants to make sure that you have money to pay in case the contract goes against you. So let's say that you bought one super contract. And then suddenly the price declines.
一份标准的白银期货合约相当于控制5,000盎司的白银。这约等于价值30万到35万美元的白银。为了能够控制这份期货合约，你需要在交易所缴纳一小部分保证金。这样做是为了让交易所确保当合约对你不利时，你有资金来支付相关费用。假设你购买了一份白银期货合约，但突然价格下跌了。
How does the exchange know that you are able to you're able to pay the exchange in the case in case that, you know, you continue to lose money or you're under water in your contract? So the exchange collects a little bit of margin just to make sure that you don't default. Now, the amount of margin the exchange has to collect is in proportion to the size of the market value of the contract and also to the volatility of the contract. As silver prices went from say 50 to 75 dollars in a very volatile way, you know, there you need to put down more margin because from an exchange standpoint, there's a higher probability that you could have big, big volatile moves suddenly leaving the exchange exposed to counterparty risk. That is to say you could default if silver would do suddenly implode. So exchange very naturally raises margins.
交易所如何确保你在持续亏损或合约处于水下状态时有能力支付呢？交易所会收取一些保证金，以确保你不会违约。保证金的收取金额与合约的市场价值大小和合约的波动性成比例。当银价以非常波动的方式从50美元上涨到75美元时，你需要支付更多的保证金，因为从交易所的角度来看，这种大幅波动可能会使交易所面临更高的对手方风险，也就是说，如果白银价格突然暴跌，你可能会违约。因此，交易所自然会提高保证金。
And what that means is that you have to put up more money to be able to have control over a super contract. Now, if you look at the margin hikes, it looks like it went from, you know, 20 some thousand to 30 some thousand dollars. When you raise the margin, some people say you're a DJN who has been levered up with silver futures, we'll have to put up more money to be able to maintain their position. Sometimes they don't have that much money. And so when that happens, they get liquidated. And when they get liquidated, you know, the price of the contract goes down, maybe that also compels other people to get liquidated as well.
这段话的意思是说，你需要投入更多的钱才能控制一个重要的合同。如果你查看保证金的提高情况，就会发现金额从大约两万美元涨到了三万美元。当提高保证金时，有人会说，你是一个在白银期货上加了杠杆的赌徒，为了维持自己的仓位不得不投入更多的钱。有时候他们没有那么多钱，于是就会被强制平仓。当他们被强制平仓时，合同的价格会下跌，这也可能导致其他人也被迫平仓。
So ultimately, it's kind of a mechanical thing where you have basically a liquidity squeeze where the really, really big DJNs are squeezed out. And this happens a lot if you look at any type of speculation in the 1980s when you have the Hunts brothers squeezing silver to dizzying heights. The exchanges also continue to raise their margin. Again, this is not necessarily some sort of conspiracy or anything like that. It's just totally mechanical. The exchange, you know, is dealing with a more volatile commodity. It's trying to protect itself from defaults. And so it obviously has to raise margins.
所以，最终这有点像是一种机械性操作，基本上就是一个流动性紧缩的过程，其中那些非常大的风险投机者被挤出了市场。如果你看看20世纪80年代的任何投机活动，就会发现这种情况常常发生，比如亨特兄弟把白银价格推到令人眩晕的高度。当时交易所也不断提高保证金。当然，这并不是什么阴谋之类的事情。这完全是一种机械上的反应。因为交易所需要处理波动性更大的商品，所以为了保护自己不发生违约，显然需要提高保证金。
There's nothing nefarious about it. Sometimes there is back in the 1980s, they tried to, they changed the role so that you could not buy silver. You could only sell. And so of course, that's putting, I put a lot of downer pressure on silver prices and did ultimately precipitate a huge implosion. They're not doing that today. So far, by accounts, it's just normal functioning of how an exchange works. And obviously, when you have an exchange hiking margins, that's going to put down a pressure on the prices. How much is going to depend on how levered it was. And obviously, if you're going up 10% a day, that's a lot of leverage.
这没有什么不可告人的。回到20世纪80年代，他们曾试图改变规则，让你只能卖出白银而不能买入。这当然对白银价格施加了很大的下行压力，并最终导致了巨大的市场崩溃。但他们今天没有这样做。据目前的说法，这只是交易所正常的运作方式。而显然，当交易所提高保证金时，这会对价格产生下行压力。这种影响的程度取决于杠杆的使用情况。显然，如果价格每天上涨10%，那就是用了很多杠杆。
And so you also imploded 10% a day. The second big news came out of China. And that China is going to exercise more control over how it exports silver. Now, China has already been doing this with all sorts of commodities. Remember, they have their, you know, control over their earth and so forth. Now it seems like they're extending this export control regime to silver. I don't think this should be a surprise because China is the largest manufacturer power in the world. And silver, it's not just for speculation. It's also a key industrial input.
所以你的价值每天也下降了10%。第二个重大消息来自中国：中国将对银的出口实行更多管控。其实，中国已经对各种大宗商品采取了这样的措施。他们对稀土等资源的管控已经存在。现在看来，他们将这种出口管控扩大到了银。我认为这不应该让人感到意外，因为中国是世界上最大的制造业大国。而银不仅用于投机，还在工业上是关键的材料。
And so if you have all these speculators in the West kind of making silver prices really high, that has a real impact on the Chinese economy, Chinese businesses and so forth. And makes, it makes the things like solar panels more expensive. And so if there is a potential shortage or some kind of weird speculation, of course, the Chinese are going to be a bit more careful since this is maybe even a national security issue. Now, China is the second largest miner of silver. The largest is Mexico. So when they put on these export controls on silver, so what that means is that in order to sell export silver, you're going to have to have a license from the Chinese authorities.
所以，如果西方的投机者抬高了白银价格，这会对中国经济和企业产生实质性的影响。例如，这会导致像太阳能电池板这样的商品变得更加昂贵。因此，如果出现潜在短缺或某种异常的投机行为，中国自然会更加谨慎，因为这甚至可能涉及国家安全问题。目前，中国是全球第二大白银生产国，最大的生产国是墨西哥。因此，当中国对白银实施出口管制时，这意味着如果你想出口白银，必须获得中国有关部门的许可。
They're going to have more control for this. What that means is very clearly that outside of China, maybe the supply of silver is going to be a little bit less because the Chinese export of silver is going to be more controlled. Now, the immediate impact of this should be to have a wedge in silver prices. Where Chinese silver prices are going to be a little bit lower and global prices are a little bit higher since you have less Chinese supply. So this is a bullish development for silver prices, but was not able to overcome, of course, the implosion you have from higher margin rates.
他们将对此进行更多的控制。这意味着，中国以外的地区银的供应可能会减少，因为中国的银出口将受到更严格的控制。直接影响是银价会出现分化：中国国内银价可能会稍低，而全球银价由于中国供应减少会略高。这对银价而言是一个利好的发展，但仍无法抵消因提高保证金率而导致的价格下跌。
Now, there is always a question whether or not the US or maybe other countries will also declare silver to be a commodity of national importance and then also put on their own bear. So that's something to watch out as well. So if you look at silver prices, they classically follow this formation with a surge to a comically high levels and then just implode. There is a possibility that this is what's happening right now. We could just totally implode, but my gut says that, and I hate saying this, that maybe there's something but different this time.
现在，总是存在一个问题：美国或其他国家是否会宣布白银为具有国家重要性的商品，并在此基础上采取相应的措施。因此，这是一个需要关注的问题。观察白银价格的走势，你会发现它们通常会出现急速飙升至可笑的高点，然后崩盘回落。目前，这种情况可能正在发生。我们可能会彻底崩溃，但我的直觉告诉我，尽管我不愿这么说，这次可能会有所不同。
And so I personally think that the highs for silver are not yet in for the year, although when you have all this technical damage, you do usually need to digest a while. Not necessarily a long time. Remember, when gold had that big blow off, it came down a little bit, steady, steady, and then just recently in being new all-time highs. All right, so that's all I prepared for today. Again, this is just year one in the Trump administration. We have three more years. Maybe the map, the global map in a few years will be different than the one today. All right, talk to you guys next week.
所以我个人认为，今年银价的高点还没有出现。尽管目前存在很多技术方面的波动，但通常需要一些时间来消化，不过不一定需要很长时间。记得当初金价大幅上涨后，它稍微回落，然后稳步上升，最近还创下了新的历史高点。好了，这就是我今天准备的内容。同时要提醒，这只是特朗普政府的第一年，我们还有三年。也许未来几年的全球形势会与今天不同。好了，下周再和大家聊。