Markets Weekly December 20, 2025

Hello, my friends. Today is December 20th, and this is markets weekly. Now, this week markets were very choppy. Didn't really seem like much is going on. And that's centrally that many, including myself, have been expecting just isn't there, at least not yet. Now, we only have a couple weeks left in the year. The S&P 500 is about a couple percent away from 7,000. Let's see if it can get there. Now, I was thinking that this week would be about markets outlook. But actually, this past week was a full trading week. And so we'll do that next week when it's going to be a short and holiday trading week.

你好，我的朋友们。今天是12月20日，欢迎来到市场周报。本周市场非常动荡，看起来并没有发生太多事情。大家，包括我自己，期待的市场中央趋势目前还没有出现，至少现在还没有。现在距离年底只剩下几周，标普500指数距离达到7000点还差百分之几。让我们看看它能否实现。我原本计划这一周会讨论市场展望，但实际上，由于过去这一周是完整的交易周，我们会把市场展望放到下周，因为下周是短暂的节假日交易周。

So today, let's talk about two things. First off, we have to talk about the massive data down we got the past week. We got sales, we got employment, we got inflation. It really was a lot of data. And secondly, let's talk about what's happening over in Japan or the Bank of Japan. Hiked rates again to 0.75%. And at the moment, it doesn't seem like that's impacting markets too much. So first, starting with the data. So again, everyone has been waiting for the data.

今天，我们来谈两个事情。首先，我们得聊聊上周发布的大量数据。我们收到了关于销售、就业和通胀的数据，信息量确实很大。其次，我们来谈谈日本的情况，即日本央行再次加息到0.75%。目前看来，这对市场的影响似乎不大。先从数据开始说起。大家一直在等待这些数据。

We had a government shutdown that lasted a long time. And so a lot of market participants have been basically flying blind. Now, the Fed would tell you that they have not been flying blind because they have all sorts of data collection capacities, which is true. But still, these government official data releases are very influential. Now, this past week, we got two of the most important ones. Of course, the jobs data and the CPI. Now, starting with the jobs data, well, honestly, we got jobs data for November and October. And it was kind of a mixed bag. On surface, you can see that in October, there was a huge loss in jobs, over 100,000. And maybe that's why that was not released initially.

我们经历了一次持续很长时间的政府停摆。因此，许多市场参与者基本上是“盲飞”状态。不过，美联储会告诉你他们并没有“盲飞”，因为他们拥有各种数据收集能力，这确实是事实。但即便如此，这些政府官方数据发布仍然具有很大影响力。上周，我们收到了两个非常重要的数据，分别是就业数据和消费者价格指数（CPI）。先说就业数据，坦率地说，我们收到了11月和10月的就业数据。整体来看，这些数据有些喜忧参半。表面上看，10月份的就业数据出现了大幅下降，职位减少超过10万，也许这就是这个数据没有在最初发布的原因。

And in November, you had kind of a bounce back where we had a decent job growth. But you average it two months, of course, it doesn't look that great. Now, looking at other measures in the jobs market report, you can see that the unemployment rate actually ticked up to 4.6%. That's higher than the Fed's median forecast of 4.5%. To be fair, it was a pretty weak 4.6%. It was like 4.55 something and it rounded 4.6. The reason for that increase in the unemployment rate seems to be in part in that the labor force participation rate is increasing.

在11月份，我们看到就业有所回升，工作增长还不错。不过，如果把两个月的情况平均来看，就没有那么理想了。现在，再看看就业市场报告中的其他指标，你会注意到失业率其实上升到了4.6%。这比美联储预期的4.5%要高。实际上，这个4.6%其实只是稍微超过4.55%，被四舍五入成了4.6%。失业率上升的部分原因似乎是因为劳动参与率在增加。

That means more people are re-entering the job market and looking for a job that increase in supply. Obviously, it's going to make the unemployment rate look a little bit worse. Although wage data, of course, has been decelerating for the past few months. So, again, when you have these supply and demand dynamics between changes in immigration and so forth, it's hard to look at quantities. We can always look at price and the price, which is wages is very clearly decelerating. So on the surface, though, it is a weaker report, especially because of the 4.6%.

这意味着更多的人正在重新进入就业市场并寻找新的工作，这使得劳动力供应增加。显然，这会让失业率看起来有些上升。虽然薪资数据在过去几个月里已经在减缓。但在移民变化等因素下，供需动态让数量上的分析变得困难。我们可以始终观察价格，而薪资作为价格非常明显在减缓。因此，从表面上看，这是一份较弱的报告，尤其是因为4.6%的数据。

At IBM, both in the US and globally, we have the lowest voluntary attrition in 30 years. To me, that's a pretty clear statement about people are not looking to change jobs and the numbers in the US are stock. We often run about 7% voluntary, putting retirement and force to the side. It's under two. Now, Bloomberg has a very useful analysis. When they look at it, they're noting that when you focus on private sector job growth, it is actually on a three month moving average basis, it's actually trending higher.

在IBM，无论是在美国还是全球范围内，我们的自愿离职率达到了30年来的最低水平。在我看来，这表明人们并不倾向于换工作，美国的数据尤为显著。通常，我们的自愿离职率大约是7%，这不包括退休和被迫离职的情况。而现在，自愿离职率低于2%。根据彭博社的分析，当他们关注私营部门的就业增长时，他们注意到从三个月移动平均来看，就业增长实际上是在上升。

A lot of the decline in headline jobs has to do with the loss in government jobs. Remember, earlier in the year, Elon, with his DOJ initiative, offered a basically a buyout to government employees that if they would resign, they could get a lot of benefits. It looks like about 100,000 people took that. As those people fell off the payrolls, and the DOJ agreement was that they didn't have to show up in the office, and they could continue to be employed and collect salary, but they would eventually fall off the payroll in October.

总的来说，就业总数的下降很大程度上与政府职位的减少有关。记得今年早些时候，埃隆推出了一个司法部计划，向政府雇员提供了一种基本的买断方案。如果他们选择辞职，可以获得很多福利。大约有10万人接受了这个提议。这些人不再领工资，但根据司法部的协议，他们不需要到办公室上班，并可以继续被雇用、领取工资，但最终会在十月被从工资名单上移除。

That big negative jobs number in October is in large part because the people who took the DOJ offer finally fell off the payrolls. When you exclude that, focusing more on private sector job growth, which I think many people think is a better indicator of the health of the economy. It seemed to have bottomed a few months ago and has been trending higher. Now, President Trump has a very memorable tweet where he says that he could actually get the unemployment rate all the way down to 2%, just by hiring a whole bunch of people through the federal government.

十月份就业数据的大幅下降，很大程度上是因为接受了司法部（DOJ）聘用的人终于脱离了工资单。如果你排除这一因素，更多关注私人部门的就业增长，许多人认为这是判断经济健康更好的指标。几个月前，这一数据似乎已见底，并呈上升趋势。现在，特朗普总统有一条非常令人难忘的推特，他表示，只要通过联邦政府雇佣一大批人，他就可以将失业率降到2%。

But again, people perceive government hiring to be not as indicative of the health of the economy and probably not as productive either. So there are reasons to think that maybe the labor market could be turning a corner, seeing that private job growth is gradually picking up again.

再说一遍，人们认为政府的招聘并不能很好地反映经济的健康状况，而且可能也不够高效。因此，有理由相信劳动力市场可能正在好转，因为私人企业的就业增长正在逐渐回升。

Now, moving on to inflation data, well, the CPI kind of shocked everyone. The market was expecting about a 3% CPI ended up something like a 2.7 and the core was low as well. That was very, very surprising to many people. Looking in the details, it becomes a bit clearer why it was surprising. If you look at the BLS's CPI data, you can see in this table here that there were a lot of blanks.

现在，转到通胀数据方面，CPI（消费者价格指数）让大家感到意外。市场预期大约是3%，但结果CPI大约是2.7，而核心CPI也很低。对很多人来说，这非常令人惊讶。仔细研究数据细节，就能明白为什么这么意外。如果查看美国劳工统计局（BLS）的CPI数据，你会发现这个表格中有很多空白项。

Now, the government shutdown impacted data collection for CPI, just like it impacted data collection for the non-farm's payrolls. And so there was a lot of blanks here. And when they started collecting again in November, the thinking was that some of the prices in November were a bit lower than they would, getting that that is a holiday season where you usually see big discounts.

现在，政府关闭影响了CPI（消费者价格指数）数据的收集，就像它影响非农就业数据的收集一样。因此，这里出现了许多空白。当他们在11月重新开始数据收集时，人们认为11月的一些价格可能比预期的要低，因为这是一个假日季节，通常会有大幅折扣。

And there's also commentary about some of the assumptions made by BLS such as regarding rents that seemed to be a bit lower than what many people would expect. And so this CPI data seems to be basically not very reliable. And so I think the market seems to dismiss it.

这段话的意思是：还有一些评论提到美国劳工统计局（BLS）所做的一些假设，比如租金方面的数据似乎比很多人预期的要低。因此，这些消费者价格指数（CPI）数据似乎基本上不太可靠。所以我认为市场似乎对这些数据不太重视。

Now, there's also a line of thinking that, you know, are they really, is this real? Are they cooking the books? Now, recall, not too long ago, there was bad data. And the BLS commissioner was fired by the president. And the appointment has not yet been made to replace that person.

现在，还有一种观点认为，这些数据是真的吗？他们是不是在造假？请记得，不久前曾出现过数据问题，美国劳工统计局的局长因此被总统解雇。现在，还没有任命新的局长来接替这个职位。

And also the night before the CPI announcement, I think it's worth noting that the president actually had an official address to the public. And in that address, aside from giving $17.76 to military personnel as a bonus, there were also a few slides highlighting concern about affordability and inflation, showing that the White House understands that this is becoming a very, very big political issue and is shifting gears to try to address it.

值得注意的是，在消费者物价指数（CPI）公布的前一天晚上，总统发表了正式的公开讲话。在这次讲话中，除了向军人发放17.76美元的奖金外，还有几张幻灯片专门强调了对生活成本和通货膨胀的担忧。这表明白宫意识到这一问题正在成为一个非常重大的政治议题，并正在调整策略试图解决这个问题。

So is one of the ways to address this having assumptions such that we'll get you a lower CPI? I have no idea. I guess we'll find out in the next CPI print, which of course would not be tainted by the government shutdown. And let's see if it is more in line with what private forecasters anticipate.

为了解决这个问题，这是不是其中一种方法：做出某些假设，以便降低CPI（消费者价格指数）？我不太清楚。我想我们会在下一次CPI数据发布时找到答案，当然那次的数据不会受到政府关闭的影响。我们也看看这次的数据是否更符合私人预测机构的预期。

Now, in addition to these two big data releases, we also got retail sales, again, a good measure of the health of the economy. Now retail sales, if you look at it excluding auto, so looking at the control group, it was actually pretty strong. And it looks like it has been accelerating. Again, retail sales is nominal, so some of that could be inflation as well.

现在，除了这两项重要的数据发布之外，我们还获得了零售额的数据，这是衡量经济健康状况的一个好指标。现在，如果不算汽车销售，仅看核心零售部分的话，实际上表现相当强劲，并且似乎在加速增长。不过，需要注意的是，零售额是名义数据，因此其中的一部分增长也可能是由于通货膨胀。

Now, when you take a step back and look at all these data prints, now on the face, you would think that this would be suggestive of easier monetary policy, right? You have the unemployment rate taking up and you have CPI coming down. But there was some volatility, but overall, it doesn't seem to market change too much.

现在，当你退一步看看所有这些数据时，表面上你可能会认为这意味着货币政策会变得宽松，对吧？失业率在上升，消费者物价指数（CPI）在下降。不过，虽然有些波动，但总体来看，市场似乎没有发生太大变化。

It's expectations of it policy. And we had a Fed official, John Williams come out on Friday and basically dismissed the data prints, noting that there's all these weird things happening because of the government shutdown, and he's totally correct about that. He seemed to suggest that, according to his calculations, the unemployment did tick up a bit, but it's probably at 4.5%, not 4.6, and CPI is probably a 10th or too low.

这是对其政策的预期。上周五，美联储官员约翰·威廉姆斯出来发表言论，基本上忽略了近期的数据表现，他指出由于政府关门，导致出现了一些异常情况，他对此的看法是完全正确的。他似乎暗示，根据他的计算，失业率确实稍微上升了，但可能是4.5%，而不是4.6%。同时，消费者价格指数（CPI）可能低了零点几个百分点。

So, still improving, but not by the massive amount suggested by the print. So on the headline, though, there were some special factors, some technical factors. They're really are related to the fact that they weren't able to collect data in October, and not in the first half of November.

所以，情况仍在改善，但并没有印刷中所暗示的那么显著。不过，关于这个标题，却存在一些特殊和技术因素。实际上，它们与以下事实有关：他们无法在10月和11月上半月收集数据。

And because of that, I think the data were distorted in some of the categories, and that pushed down the CPI reading, probably by a 10th or so. It's hard to say now. Again, it looks like nothing's happening too much on that front.

因此，我认为数据在某些类别中出现了失真，这大概导致CPI（消费价格指数）读数降低了大约百分之一。现在很难说清楚。再说一次，看起来在这一方面没太多变化。

On a related front, it looks like there's more a political drama about the next potential Fed head. Looking at Koushi, you can see the odds of Kevin Hasset, who seemed like a lock, not too long ago, has fallen. Still, the favorite, but you see other people like Kevin Walsh, and Governor Waller taking higher in the odds.

在相关方面，看来关于下一任美联储主席的潜在人选有更多的政治戏剧性。看看Koushi，你会发现不久前看起来稳操胜券的凯文·哈塞特，赔率已经下降。尽管他仍是热门人选，但其他人，如凯文·沃尔什和州长沃勒的赔率在上升。

From what I hear, it seems like there is a group that is posing Kevin Hasset, and they're trying to make their case to the president. My impression is that group includes Secretary Besset. So that's sizeable opposition. Of course, the president likes Hasset, has worked with him for many times, and he's still the favorite.

根据我所听到的信息，似乎有一个团体在反对凯文·哈塞特，并试图向总统陈述他们的观点。我的印象是，这个团体中包括贝塞特部长，所以这是一股不小的反对力量。当然，总统喜欢哈塞特，曾多次与他合作，他仍然是总统的心头好。

But you do have these other people coming up and being interviewed. So it's no longer a lock, as it used to be. I continue to think that Kevin Walsh would be a very strange pick since he is basically a lifelong hawk. We'll see how that plays out.

但是现在有其他人出面并接受采访。所以，不再像以前那样是铁板钉钉的事情了。我仍然认为选择凯文·沃尔什会是个很奇怪的决定，因为他基本上一直是个强硬派。我们看看事情会如何发展。

Announcement for Fed Chair should come they say in early January, but again, they have been known to change their minds. Now, the second thing I want to talk about is what's happening in Japan. Since that is going to eventually have a pretty big impact on markets. Now, if you look at the 10-year Japanese JGB, you notice that it's was sliding for many decades, and now it's basically surging higher, it has highest 2% highest it's been for many decades. And the reason for this is obvious, the Bank of Japan is hiking rates. Now, last week, the hike to 0.75% still sounds really low, but it's the highest it's been for a really long time. The rationale for hikes, of course, it is obvious. Inflation in Japan is pretty high. If you look at their inflation numbers, inflation in Japan is actually higher than it is in the United States. It's around 3%. So they have a 3% inflation 10 years at 2%, and a policy rate is at 0.75%. Obviously much lower than inflation. So policy continues to be very easy there.

他们说，美联储主席的任命公告应该会在一月初公布，但他们也有可能改变主意。现在，我想谈论的第二件事是在日本发生的事情。因为这最终会对市场产生相当大的影响。如果你看日本10年期国债（JGB），你会注意到它多年来一直在下滑，而现在基本上在飙升，达到了几十年来的2%的最高点。这显而易见，因为日本银行正在加息。上周，他们将利率提高到0.75%，虽然这听起来仍然很低，但这是很久以来的最高点。加息的理由当然很明显，日本的通货膨胀相当高。如果你看他们的通胀数据，日本的通胀实际上比美国还要高，约为3%。所以，他们有3%的通胀率，10年期国债收益率为2%，而政策利率为0.75%。显然，这比通胀率要低得多，因此政策仍然非常宽松。

In contrast, in the US, policy rate is about 3.5% inflation is a bit below 3%. Now, the Bank of Japan, I really like how they communicate. They understand that they have many people watching the Bank of Japan who don't speak Japanese very well. So they always have these very helpful presentations in English. And in this one page slide, they tell you very clearly that they are hiking rates because, well, a lot of the geopolitical uncertainty has been dampened. Liberation day is a distant memory and it seems like they worked out their trade problems with the US. And wages are accelerating and inflation is high, but notably, they highlight that real interest rates remain very, very low and they are still in easing mode. So even though they're hiking, they're not becoming restrictive. They're just being coming a little bit less easy, which is obvious. You have 3% inflation and yet your policy rate is still below 1%.

与此相反，在美国，政策利率大约是3.5%，而通胀率略低于3%。而日本银行，我非常喜欢他们的沟通方式。他们知道有很多关注日本银行的人并不太会讲日语。因此，他们总是提供非常有用的英文演示。在这个单页幻灯片中，他们很清楚地告诉你，他们正在提高利率，因为很多地缘政治的不确定性已经减弱，自由解放日已经成为遥远的记忆，他们似乎已经解决了与美国的贸易问题。工资正在上涨，通货膨胀高企，但值得注意的是，他们强调实际利率仍然非常低，他们仍然处于宽松模式。因此，即使他们在加息，他们也并没有变得具有限制性，只是变得稍微不那么宽松，这很明显，当通胀率为3%时，政策利率仍然低于1%。

And I think that is why you see this reaction where you actually see the gain weakening significantly against the dollar rather than strengthening. Japan, Bank of Japan is hiking, but still not hiking enough. And so monetary policy continues to be very easy. You have to currency depreciate rating. Now, there's a lot of speculation about how this would eventually impact global markets. On the one hand, you could say that as Japanese yields rise, maybe that drags up global yields definitely has an impact. And that could negatively impact, let's say, US equities. On the other hand, you can also say that as the yen is up as interest rates go higher, maybe the yen appreciates and we have this big shock where say, you can have, but they carry trade that could blow up as it did last year, where you had a sudden appreciation of the yen and the people who borrowed in yen to finance investments, let's say in the US, suddenly have to repay. And that was a very volatile moment. But so far, you just don't see that, right? So yen is depreciating. So that means there's no fear yet of a carry trade blow up.

我认为这就是为什么我们看到日元对美元的汇率反而显著走弱而不是走强的原因。日本银行正在加息，但加息幅度仍然不够，所以货币政策依然非常宽松。结果导致了货币贬值。目前，有很多关于这将如何影响全球市场的猜测。一方面，你可以说随着日本收益率上升，这可能会推高全球收益率，并对市场产生影响，可能对美国股市造成负面影响。另一方面，你也可以认为，随著日元和利率一起上涨，日元可能会升值，我们就可能经历一个大的震荡，比如说类似于去年那样的'套息交易'爆发，当时日元突然升值，借入日元在美国投资的人突然需要偿还贷款，那样的时刻非常动荡。然而，到目前为止，我们还没有看到这种情况对吧？所以日元在贬值，这意味着暂时还没有'套息交易'爆发的担忧。

Another potential is that you have Japanese investors eventually repatriates some of their overseas investments and invest in Japan since the yields are higher. Now, if you think of things from a Japanese investor's perspective, over the past decades, they've accumulated tremendous amounts of foreign assets. Now, even without looking at the interest rate difference show, they are sitting on enormous FX gains, right? Their investments were in dollars. The yen has depreciated significantly and dollar appreciated significantly. So if they were to sell that and repatriate back to Japanese yen, they were sitting at a huge, huge windfall on currency alone. The really interesting thing about Japan is that although they have a current account surplus, a very large one, that's actually largely from their overseas investments on a trade basis. The trade, it's sometimes in a little bit of a surplus, but oftentimes in a deficit.

另一种可能性是，日本投资者可能最终会将部分海外投资汇回国内，并投资于日本，因为日本的收益率更高。如果从日本投资者的角度来看，过去几十年里，他们积累了大量的外国资产。他们不用看利率差，就已经坐拥巨额的外汇收益。因为他们的投资主要以美元计价，而日元的贬值和美元的升值非常显著。因此，如果他们将这些资产出售并换回日元，单是因为汇率变化，他们就已经获得了巨大的收益。日本的一个非常有趣的现象是，尽管日本有非常大的经常账户盈余，但其实主要来自于他们的海外投资。在贸易方面，有时会有小额盈余，但很多时候是赤字。

So over the past few decades, when Japan was growing and becoming an export superpower, they accumulated a lot of dollars, a lot of foreign exchange from selling overseas. Took that foreign exchange and invested abroad. Now, they are really benefiting from higher interest rates and yen depreciation on those investments. That's really what keeps their current account in a big surplus.

在过去的几十年里，日本经济不断增长，成为出口大国，他们通过对外销售积累了大量美元和外汇。日本将这些外汇用于海外投资。现在，由于这些投资受益于更高的利率和日元贬值，他们的收益也相应增加。这也是为什么日本当前的经常账户能够保持大量盈余的主要原因。

In the future, China will be in that position. They also have a large trades or plus today and eventually, they're going to have a large current account surplus due to that interesting income from investment to abroad. But moving back to Japan, so far, you just don't see a big repatriation effort from Japanese investors to move back and harvest those multi-decket high yields in JGBs.

未来，中国将会处于这样的地位。他们现在的贸易量很大，最终也会由于海外投资收益带来的有趣收入而拥有大额的经常账户盈余。但回到日本，目前还看不到日本投资者大规模把资金调回国内，以利用日本国债多年高收益的情况。

So that suggests that rates in Japan still have to go higher before we get that potential squeeze on the carry trade. That is still sometime in the future. Of course, depending upon whether the bank of Japan will continue to hike, they suggest that they will. But remember, we are in a new political regime where the new Prime Minister, the Kachih, has been making remarks that she kind of doesn't want to have more say on monetary policy as President Trump would say.

这表明，在日本利率达到足以对套息交易产生潜在压力之前，还有上升的空间。这种情况还需要一些时间。当然，这也取决于日本银行是否会继续加息，他们表示会这样做。但请记住，我们目前处于一个新的政治体制下，新首相Kachih曾表示，她不太想像特朗普总统那样对货币政策多加干预。

We'll see how that plays out. That's all I prepared for today. Next week, it will be very, very sleepy. Let's see if we finally get that Christmas rally. The data did come in kind of in line with what would be positive for Christmas rally. But surprisingly, we haven't seen it. It's been a bit disappointing. Let's see if that happens next week. Talk to you all then.

我们看看事情会如何发展。这就是我今天准备的全部内容。下周会非常、非常平静。我们拭目以待是否会迎来圣诞行情。数据显示的确有利于圣诞行情出现，但令人惊讶的是，我们还没有看到这种情况，有点让人失望。让我们看看下周是否会发生。到时候再聊。