Investing Lessons from “Succession”
发布时间 2023-04-29 16:00:00 来源
I am wary when a CEO makes himself part of the show and Steve Jobs was very much rightly or wrongly very much part of the show Tim Cook likes to stay in the background and another example I'm gonna give you here is what I call the dueling Bob's Disney Bob Eiger Bob Chapeck Bob Eiger absolutely makes himself part of the show
当一位CEO将自己置身展示中时，我会感到警惕。史蒂夫·乔布斯不管对错都是展示中的一部分。蒂姆·库克喜欢待在后台，另一个例子是两位鲍勃（CEO），迪士尼的鲍勃·艾格和鲍勃·钦佩克。鲍勃·艾格绝对让自己成为展示的一部分。
I'm Chris Hill and that's Motley Fool Senior analyst Jim Gillies we're putting an investor's lens on the TV show Succession your award-winning HBO series about waystar Royco a fictional media conglomerate and the drama that surrounds the family running the business Ricky Mulvey caught up with Gillies to talk about the real-life companies that parallel waystar Royco and the challenges of investing in larger than life CEOs
我是克里斯·希尔，我的搭档是摩特利富尔资深分析师吉姆·吉莱斯，我们将用投资者的视角来看待TV Show Succession，这是一部赢得奖项的HBO电视连续剧，讲述了虚构媒体集团Waystar Royco及其家族成员在经营企业和面临的挑战中的戏剧化故事。里奇·马尔维采访了吉姆·吉莱斯，谈论了与Waystar Royco类似的真实公司以及面对超级CEO带来的投资挑战。
and before you start listening let me warn you right now this episode does include spoilers for Succession so if you watch the show and you haven't caught up through episode five of season four consider yourself warned
在你开始收听之前，让我提醒你一下，本集节目含有《继承》的剧透。所以如果你正在追剧，而你还没有看到第四季第五集，希望你做好心理准备。
with my spoiler alert out of the way let's get started so while I'm giving people time to to tune out if they haven't seen season four episode five I'm gonna I'm gonna I want to vamp a little bit outside of the show I think sees CEO Succession for a lot of a lot of businesses is often followed but I don't know if it's actually important to track it's really difficult to judge and also asking people who are CEOs what's gonna happen after you pass on is a bit like asking someone the details of their will yeah the the the ability to really step in it rather quickly is it's very much there and I don't having asked a few people what's in their wills I think Succession I think it's important and I hope you hear the uncertainty in my voice there because I think we somehow occasionally we need to remember the CEOs are people and people are complicated and people are new on some people have their own interests and sometimes those interests aren't aligned with yours as an investor yes that's true even with the best CEOs you know I'm looking at you warned about it and we have to remember that things are complex and sometimes
带着我的剧透警告，让我们开始吧。所以，当我给人们时间消化第四季第五集的内容时，我想在节目外谈一点。我认为，对于很多企业来说，CEO继承问题经常被关注，但我不知道它实际上是否重要。判断起来非常困难，而问CEOs谁会在你去世后接替你的位置，就像问别人他们遗嘱的细节一样，极易惹毛人。即使是最好的CEO，也很难预测接班人的具体情况。我们需要记住，CEO也是人类，人类往往很复杂，有自己的利益，和你做为投资者的利益可能不一致。我们必须记住，事情是复杂的。
One of my all-time favorite CEO succession stories is: Do you remember where you were the day Steve Jobs died? I remember it well. I was in New York at my friend's place, and she said, "You know, oh, golf word actually, the leader." She says, "Oh, blank. Steve Jobs just died." And I go to look, and of course, the day was after a bower is when they announced it, and Apple stock price did not react well, put it that way. Except what really changed, you already kind of had Steve Jobs's handpicked successor was already kind of running the company like before that. That would be of course, Tim Cook, and I will argue, Tim Cook has been a much better CEO than Steve Jobs ever could have been post-iPhone. He died in 2011, of course, but the iPhone was 2007. He has been a better CEO than Jobs would have been in a post-iPhone era for investor returns, of course, as an investor I care about. But on the day that he died, on the day that Steve Jobs died, people very clearly thought, "Oh no, this is terrible, this is a disaster," and the world is unfolded very differently from there.
我最喜欢的CEO继任故事之一：你还记得史蒂夫·乔布斯去世的那一天吗？我记得很清楚，在纽约的朋友家里，她说："你知道吗，哦，我的天啊，领袖去世了。"然后我去看，当然，乔布斯去世的那天是在鲍威尔之后，苹果公司的股价表现不佳，这是毫无疑问的。但真正改变的是什么？你已经知道了，就是史蒂夫·乔布斯的心腹继任者蒂姆·库克已经在之前就像经营公司那样了。我会争辩说蒂姆·库克比史蒂夫·乔布斯在iPhone时代后更能成为一名出色的CEO。当然，从投资者回报的角度看，我很关心这一点。但在他去世的那一天，人们非常清楚地认为："哦，不好，这是一场灾难"，世界从那以后就发生了非常不同的变化。
So that's why I say I'm not sure I think it matters, but I'm not sure. I'm wait one second. I want to zero in on, before we keep moving, you said looking at you warned Buffett. He's been like pretty good for stock investors, right? He has. I love Uncle Warren, and I'm going to the Berkshire meeting in a couple of weeks, or by the time this airs I guess in next weekend, but one of the succession things that Uncle Warren has put in place is that the chairman of the board, once Warren and Charlie exit stage left, they've already picked a successor to run the business and also to invest, but the chairman of the board is supposed to be Howard Buffett, who is, quote-unquote, to preserve his son, his oldest son to preserve the culture at Berkshire, you know the company he doesn't work for and has shown no aptitude or any kind of managerial, you know, those types of skill sets.
这就是为什么我说我不确定它是否重要，但我不确定。等一下。在我们继续之前，我想集中注意力，你说看着你警告巴菲特，他对股票投资者来说相当不错，对吗？是的。我爱 Warren 叔叔，我将在几周内参加伯克希尔会议，或者当这篇文章播出时，我猜下周末，但叔叔Warren已经安排好的继任计划之一是，一旦Warren和Charlie退出，主席会传位给Howard Buffett，他是Warren的儿子，为了保护伯克希尔的文化，虽然他并不工作在该公司，并且没有表现出任何管理或其他技能组合的才能。
I'm like okay, why. Like why do we need, I mean, you know, not to call Howard Buffett a nepot maybe, but he's kind of a nepot maybe, right? He'll be installed in the, okay fine, sort of figurehead job, but still, like, Warren. You think Warren Buffett would have, would, would, I mean, you know, Warren Buffett who famously has a long-term relationship with Bill Gates, of course, founder CEO former CEO of Microsoft, as well as, you know, understanding, you know, during the ballroom years at Microsoft, not a hell of a lot happened, but then they got a true rock star in my opinion, such as Satya Nadella, who has taken Microsoft even greater heights.
我有点不明白，为什么我们需要，我是说，不是说霍华德·巴菲特是个裙带关系吧，但他或多或少还是有点裙带关系吧。他会被安排在一些象征性的职位上面，但是，你想想，沃伦·巴菲特会这么做吗？毕竟，沃伦·巴菲特和比尔·盖茨有着长久的合作关系，毕竟比尔·盖茨是微软的创始人兼首席执行官，并且，在微软的黄金时期，虽然没有发生很多事情，但后来他们找到了一个真正的摇滚巨星，例如我认为的萨亚·纳德拉，他将微软带到了更高的高度。
I don't know. I've just never bought into Howard Buffett's going to preserve the culture. That's so funny. You're afraid to call him a nepot maybe. He's going to be the chairman of the board because of who his dad is. I'm absolutely calling him a nepot. Okay, well, I'm being a little different genuine. Yeah, I'm afraid to call him that, but I'm absolutely calling him that. Yeah, can a coke and common sense. Guys putting his kid who doesn't want to run the company at the helm, and in the case succession, it's not really clear if the kids actually want to run the company. You've had your time. We're getting into spoilers now.
我不知道。我就是从没相信霍华德·巴菲特要保护文化遗产。这太滑稽了。你害怕称他为裙带关系，对吧？他将成为董事会主席，因为他父亲的关系。我绝对称他为裙带关系。好吧，我有点不太真诚地不愿意称他为裙带关系。是的，我害怕这样说，但我绝对要这样说。该喝一杯可乐和常识了。这个家伙把不想经营公司的孩子放在舵手，而在接班人的情况下，不清楚这些孩子是否真的想经营公司。你的时间已经用完了。我们现在要涉及剧透内容了。
Okay, here we go. Starting generally. Watching this season, watching this show, or have there been times where you watch it, and you go, huh, this rhymes with something I've seen in real life?
好的，我们来开始吧。一般来说，你有没有看到这个季节，觉得这个节目跟你在现实生活中见过的某些事情很像呢？
I generally think that second-generation CEO, second-generation taking over, I'm generally not a fan. I'm generally not a fan, sorry Howard Buffett. I'm generally not a fan because it's a difficult job, it's a complex job. Why do you think that just because you share some DNA with the previous holder of the position that you will be as good, and Roy Disney comes to mind as well, one of my favorite activist investing stories on that one too.
一般而言，我认为二代CEO接班是值得怀疑的。对不起霍华德·巴菲特，我一般不太喜欢这样的情况。这是一个困难而复杂的工作。难道你认为仅仅因为你与上一任职位的持有者有相同的DNA，你就能做得同样好吗？罗伊·迪斯尼的经历也让我想起了一个我喜欢的激进投资故事。
So when I look at what's gone on with succession, the show first off, I don't know that there's ever, I know I can't think of a better pairing. of writer and actor to deliver the lines than Kirin Culkin and Roman Roy I just give that guy all the awards because he's hilarious but you know what strikes me and has always struck me with this show of course there's four children you know there's there's Kendall and Roman and Chabon and oh yeah Connor from the first marriage who's over there being delusional but he wants a certain succession too if you know the plot lines these kids are profoundly damaged by by their father and the presence and this the scale of their father of who he is and what he is built and I would think if this were real corporation in a real story line I would be very reticent to have any of them taking over.
看到《继承者》这部电视剧，我认为编剧和演员凯伦·库尔金和罗曼·罗伊的搭配是无与伦比的，他们将剧中台词演绎得非常好。我觉得这部电视剧一直以来打动我的是，虽然这个家族有肯德尔、罗曼、夏波和第一段婚姻中的康纳，但这些孩子们都深受父亲和他所建立的事业规模的伤害。如果这是一个真实的公司和故事情节，我会非常犹豫让任何一个孩子接手公司。康纳可能还在幻想，但他们的人生都已经被深深地刻在了父亲的事业中。
I think probably Chabon is probably the most qualified but there's there's a lot of entitlement in the two in Roman and Kendall they they feel they deserve it they of course are currently co CEOs in the show if you've watched up to kill lists the most reason episode and but that there's constant angling for position there's constant working against each other there's constant palace intrigue we'll call it Kendall in particularly is a profoundly damaged human being in my opinion who is just looking for Daddy's love again.
我觉得Chabon可能是最合格的人，但是罗曼和肯德尔有很多特权感，他们觉得自己应该得到这个职位，当然，他们目前在秀中是共同的CEO。如果你看过最新一集的"kill lists"，你会发现他们一直在互相斗争，不断地争夺地位，不断地搞宫廷斗争。尤其是肯德尔，我认为他是一个深受创伤的人，他只是想再次得到父亲的爱。
I think probably the one who's the most confident and I think the one that Logan the patriarch of the family what I think the one he probably was closest to and thought could probably do the job best was Chabon I look at these characters and I'm like I think the I actually think the best thing for investors in the show would would be that they that they the storyline right now fools for those who don't know is that they're in the wake of the patriarch's exit from the stage they are debating whether to keep the company or sell the company to a Swedish interest and I'm sitting there going oh no you sell and you take your money and you go sit on a beach and roll around in your dollars a Swedish ramp I mean I think that's but I think that makes it more realistic.
我认为可能最自信的那个人，并且我认为洛根这个家族的家长认为可能最能胜任工作的那个人是查邦。当我看这些角色时，我想，我实际上认为对于这个节目的投资者来说，最好的事情是他们现在的故事线是他们在这位家长退出舞台后正在辩论是保留公司还是将公司出售给一个瑞典利益集团，而我坐在那里，觉得要卖掉并拿走你的钱，去沙滩上翻滚着你的美元，这是更现实的。
I I think what you said that the fact that they're profoundly broken they're not qualified for the job like in some ways doesn't that offer more of a similitude to to like CEO succession in some cases where the person who gets the job it's not necessarily because of their skill in the case of succession it's because Kendall Roy's name was half crossed out half underlined and he was able to capitalize it the right moment like that even if it's not successful that's that's played out before.
我认为你所说的他们非常不合格，不能胜任工作的事实在某种程度上更像是某些情况下的首席执行官接班，接任该职位的人并不一定是因为他们的技能，在继任的情况下，肯德尔·罗伊的名字被划掉了一半，下划线划了一半，他能够在合适的时刻加以利用，即使失败了，这种情况以前也出现过。
Yeah, I mean I've got a couple I was I was trying to think of before we did before we did does. I was trying to think of a couple of examples of family succession I've seen and these companies are both gone now so don't don't bother looking it up.
是的，我的意思是在我们进行“之前做过”之前，我想到了一些家族继承的例子，但这些公司现在已经消失了，所以不要费心去查了。
The two that came to mind - do you remember Dress Barn? I think the stores might still be around. I was not a head, no. Yeah, I was thought Dress Barn was kind of funny because you know, hey honey, I'm on buy something nice let's go to Dress Barn.
我想到的有两个 - 你还记得Dress Barn吗？我想这些商店可能还在。我不是头脑发达的人。是的，我觉得Dress Barn有点好笑，因为你知道，嘿亲爱的，我想买些好东西，让我们去Dress Barn。
But they were the parent company of several concepts - with Dress barn, Maurices, justice (which was for younger girls), and a couple more. Anyway, they were a fine family-run business. You had the family still owned it. It was a husband and wife who'd found the company; the husband had passed on, the wife was still on the board, I believe. The son was the CEO, so there's your succession, your family succession, and I think the daughter was on the board as well. And I think the family had about 25% of this, still.
他们是几个概念的母公司 - Dress barn、Maurices、Justice(专门针对年轻女孩)，还有几个。总之，他们是一家不错的家族企业。这个企业仍然由家族拥有。丈夫和妻子创办了公司；丈夫已经去世，妻子仍然在董事会上，我认为。儿子是首席执行官，所以这就是家族传承，而我认为女儿也在董事会上。我认为，家族目前仍持有大约25%的股份。
And look, it was a niche retailer. It's making the family a few million bucks a year. Like what their take-home was like, that's a decent, that's a nice little life right. But again, it's the hubris of wanting to get bigger, which might be coming into the TV show "Succession" in the most recent episode especially. But the hubris of wanting to get bigger. Dress Barn, again, they owned Maurices. I think they acquired Justice, and then they went out and acquired Anteiler. And I'm pretty sure it's Anteiler and Lane Bryant, forgive me, folks, if I if I misread the names.
看看，这是一个小众零售商。它每年为家庭挣几百万美元。就像他们的实际收入一样，这是一个不错、并且舒适的生活。但是，他们想要变得更大，这可能在最近一集的电视剧《继承》中变得更加强烈。但是，想要变得更大的自负，Dress Barn再次拥有了Maurices，我想他们收购了Justice，然后又收购了Anteiler。我相当肯定那是Anteiler和Lane Bryant，如果我错了，请原谅我。
But then they went out and so they levered up to go buy these other brands because we're going to have this like you know, a whole suite of brands. And then they had a really big, we're going to do new distribution centers and we're going to spread out across the country. And they basically leveraged themselves into bankruptcy. They destroyed generational wealth. The family's stock holdings were nine figures worth right.
但后来他们走出去，开始加杠杆去购买其他品牌，因为他们想要拥有一整套品牌。然后他们计划开设新的配送中心，并在全国范围内扩大业务。然而，他们最终把自己杠杆化到了破产的地步，摧毁了代际财富。这个家族的股权价值达到了九位数。
And like I said, they were already, the family was still pulling a couple million bucks a year collectively in addition to having those shares. Rather than sell their shares and bank your hundred-plus million dollars and just going and sitting on a beach, which I promise you I would do, they destroyed it. They went into bankruptcy. So, that's one I thought was bad.
就像我说的一样，这个家庭已经集体获得了几百万美元的收入，除了持有这些股份。但他们没有出售股份获得一亿多美元的收益，然后去海滩上休息，而是毁了它。他们破产了。所以，这是我认为很糟糕的一个案例。
And then another one, this I since works sort of in a slow-moving banking crisis right now, Ricky, I figured I'd give you some banking fun. There was a bank called Irwin Financial. It was in the Midwest going into the credit crisis, and they did a big deal. They had paid a dividend and a growing dividend for a couple of decades, I think heading into 2007, 2008.
然后，还有另一家银行，眼下正处于缓慢的银行危机中。 Ricky，我想给你分享一些有趣的银行故事。曾经有一家名叫Irwin Financial的银行，它位于中西部地区，在信用危机时期进行了一笔大生意。他们支付了股息，并在过去几十年中不断增加股息，我想这是在2007年到2008年间。
The CEO was the fourth generation of the Irwin family, like fourth generation. He always seemed very, a lot more interested in doing good works and appearing on charitable boards and being all over the place. I don't think he was really connected with the business. But because he was the fourth generation and there's family there again. His family wealth and, you know, he was controlling a trust that owned whatever percentage of the bank. But he was sitting on like 10 or 15 charitable boards and doing good works and all things that by themselves are good.
这位CEO是Irwin家族的第四代，也就是说，他是一个家族的继承人。他似乎对做善事、参加慈善委员会以及到处走动更加感兴趣，而不是真正关注业务。但由于他是第四代，家族联系再次显现。他的家族财富，以及拥有银行某一百分比的信托基金的控制权。尽管他在10到15个慈善委员会中扮演角色，并独立处理好事，这些本身都是好的。
But while he was doing that, he was ignoring the fact the lending standards at his bank had completely gone off the rails. And so when then, you know, the mortgage crisis of 2007 through 2009 shows up, long story short, wiped out his business. And again, destroyed generational wealth, fourth-generational wealth here.
然而，当他这样做的时候，他忽略了他所在银行放贷标准已经彻底失控这一事实。因此，当2007年至2009年的抵押贷款危机到来时，一言以蔽之，他的生意被彻底摧毁了。一代又一代的财富被毁，包括第四代。
So, I would you know if I'm on the board if I am looking for the trying to pick the successor of Wastar Rocco, if I'm on that board, I'm like, you know, I'm sitting here going, well, well, anyone but a Roy. Like, like no, like not, we're not gonna, we're not gonna go with this nepo-baby succession plan. Yeah, it's the confusion of business of bloodline for business savvy, and I think you bring up a good point.
如果我在董事会上，试图挑选维斯塔·罗科的继承人，那么我会想知道我是否已经在董事会中。我会坐在那里想着：“不要选一个罗伊。不要按照这个“亲权婴儿继承计划”去做。”这个计划混淆了血统和商业智慧之间的区别，我认为你提出了一个好观点。
And maybe maybe we'll be wrong about this but I could very well see that being the end of the show which is the destruction of generational wealth right now they're in a position go Joe's offered them some I don't know the value of the deal and I think that's deliberate but an insane amount of money to take over the entire company and they're allowed to just walk away but now you have Roman Kendall is co CEOs while they're on the plane there patting themselves on the back for doing a great job as CEO hey and I think someone reminds them that they've only been at the job for 24 hours yeah they are also terrible at it.
也许我们可能会错，但我确实可以看到这可能是节目结束的方式，即现在代际财富的毁灭。现在他们处于一种位置，Joe已经给了他们一些我不知道交易价值的东西，但我认为这是有意的。这笔交易涉及的金额是一个疯狂的数量，可以接管整个公司而且他们可以随时离开。但现在有Roman和Kendall成为共同CEO，当他们在飞机上拍手称赞自己做得很好时，有人提醒他们他们只做了24小时而已，而且他们也很糟糕。
You see them when they walk in with Lucas Matson in the latest episode the Swedish like tech billionaire they're they're getting dogged they realize that they're not punching at their weight class and that they're they're gonna get steen ruled by this guy yeah and you know ironically the the last again spoilers the last scene where Roman just goes off on him on Matson at the top of the mountain and it ultimately results in a better deal offered to them but you know the words coming out of his mouth he's not negotiating he is he is letting his bile and his anger and his disgust at the whole process just wash over Matson and then it ultimately ends up in a in a better offer to for his company.
在最新一集中，你会看到他们与瑞典科技亿万富翁卢卡斯·马特森一起进入场景，他们发现自己实力不足，在这个人面前无法施展其能力，他们知道自己被陷入了麻烦之中。最后，罗曼在山顶上向马特森发泄了情绪，然后，他们得到了一个更好的交易。尽管罗曼的话语并没有直接谈判，但是他那充满愤怒和厌恶的言辞最终导致了更好的交易。
And so as you say you know they're they're being all self-congratulatory in the plane over to Norway and they're looking very happy with themselves and the way back they just look like beaten dogs yeah and Matson knows it and Matson knows it and he has shiv sent him a picture yeah it's fantastic. I think I think something remarkable about that scene too is it's the first time that at least as a viewer I've been confident that Roman was telling the truth.
正如你所说，他们在去挪威的飞机上都自我恭维，看起来很开心。但回程时，他们看起来像打败的狗。Matson知道这一点，他让Shiv给他发了一张照片，很棒。这个场景的另一个显著之处是，至少作为观众，我第一次对Roman说的话有信心。
Is it a point where he's so broken that the sarcasm breaks down the humor breaks down his language breaks down to the point where he has no other option but to tell the truth and then even in Matson in that moment says you lost like in in in telling the truth and saying how you actually feel you've you've lost the game basically and and now I can now I could beat you thinking of Mats and I want to turn I want to turn the attention to him and see if pick your brain to see if we can find some parallels there this episode he kind of he becomes a character so Lucas Matson the Swedish tech billionaire forces the Roy family to come to him in in Norway for a retreats days after the death of their father to negotiate a business deal that could have been a phone call.
他已经崩溃到了一种程度，讽刺已经崩溃，幽默已经崩溃，他的语言也到了崩溃的边缘，除了说实话，他已经没有其他选择。在马森那一刻，即使说出真相并表达真实感受，你就输掉了比赛，就像马森说的那样。现在我想把注意力转向他，看看我们是否可以找到一些相似之处。在这一集中，卢卡斯·马森成为了一个角色，这位瑞典科技亿万富翁强迫罗伊家族在父亲去世后几天来挪威参加他的撤退，以谈判一笔完全可以通过电话解决的业务。
Which is that he wanted them to know that they wanted the cable news network or the news network ATN back into the deal and this is the episode that reveals that Lucas Matson's a vampire physically he's sending half-leaders of his blood to the comms director who's whose is ex-girlfriend the actor Alexander Skarsgard was also an intrubelad so there's a little bit of an illusion there the coldness of his character and also his admission that he wants to take take ATN take what way star Royco and buy it and strip it for parts I think those are two of the biggest like symbols that that that's a vampire storyline and I think that is also very common in business acquisition and the publicly traded investment world.
他想让他们知道他们想要有线新闻网络或新闻网络ATN重新回到交易中，这一集揭示了卢卡斯·马特森是一个吸血鬼的身体，他把自己的半领导力的血液发给了通讯总监，是他的前女友，演员亚历山大·斯卡斯加德也是一个Intrubelad，所以这里有一点幻象，他的角色的冷漠和他承认他想拿走ATN，拿走韦仕达，剥离它的部分。我认为这是两个最大的象征，是吸血鬼故事情节，并且我认为这也很常见在企业收购和公开交易投资世界。
It is and and that's what I'm actually to go back to the Buffett line as well here where one of the aspects of the culture of Berkshire something maybe that Howard Buffett is going to be tasked once Uncle once Warren is gone is Buffett famously talks about if you sell to us we're not in the business of stripping for parts of you know ripping out what we can and maybe selling it in five years if you sell to us it is forever and specifically if you sell to us you will get to continue managing your own business where we can't provide new management.
这段话的意思是，Berkshire公司的文化之一是不对被收购的公司进行肢解或拆卸，而是让其继续独立运营，管理团队不受干扰。这一点很重要，因为如果你把自己的公司卖给了Berkshire，你可以继续管理你的公司，并且不需要担心会被更换新管理层，因为Berkshire不能提供这方面的服务。Howard Buffett很可能会在Warren Buffett退休后负责这个方面的任务。
So you know we're largely gonna you know be hands-off the idea that acquisitions are made and I mean the whole the whole concept of a kill list the title of the of the episode is when you have two companies one company acquires another company and they're matching two organizations it's the acquirer builds a so-called kill list a list of the people they do not slash will not need at you know the the combined company and I mean in that and that is the you know that is the the great problem for a lot of acquisitions if you are if you are acquired I mean if you're acquired and you've got a whole ton of stock and you're getting a nice buy-out I mean this could be great but you're probably gonna lose control of your baby and or your job and and if you're fine with. that okay but a lot of the rank and file you know won't
所以你知道我们大部分都会不插手公司收购的想法，整个收购清单的概念就是当一个公司收购另一个公司并匹配两个组织时，收购方会制定所谓“清单”，列出他们不需要或决不会需要的人员名单，这是许多收购案的重大问题，如果你被收购了，你也许会得到大量股票和不错的赔偿，这很好，但你也可能会失去对你的公司或工作的控制权，如果你可以接受这样的结果那还好，但很多基层员工不会。
I mean you know if you're you know you're the corporate treasurer and you're far down the org ladder and you probably don't know your your salary you need to salary to make make your mortgage and eat time to bone up on that resume because you're probably not gonna have a job tomorrow or the you know if one company acquires another company in the sales force you know they've each got a sales force well you know you know who's going away and it's not the sales force of the existing business so no company needs two CFOs no company needs to see a force
我是说，如果你是公司的财务主管，你在组织结构中的位置很低，你可能不知道你的薪资，你需要薪资来支付按揭和日常开支，那么你需要加强自己的简历，因为你很可能明天就失业了。又如，如果一家公司收购了另一家公司，它们都有自己的销售团队，那么你知道哪个销售团队被解雇，肯定不是已有业务的销售团队。任何一个公司都不需要两个首席财务官，也不需要两个销售团队。
I think the one story that that might be closest to this show is the story of Louis Vuitton Bernard Arno so for those who don't know it's this guy is the he is the richest person in the world surpassed surpassed your guy Musk surpassed who's the other person in the running I can't think of it it was Musk Bill Gates but now it's Bernard Arno is the richest person in the world running Louis Vuitton and he has five children who have essentially been jockeying for the CEO job all of their lives and has made the promise oh this is gonna be a merit meritocratic decision it's gonna go to one of them like highly educated train them to be like business like to be elite business people
我认为与这个节目最接近的故事可能是路易维托瓦·贝纳德·阿诺（Louis Vuitton Bernard Arno）的故事。对于不知道的人来说，这个人是世界上最富有的人，超过了你们的马斯克和其他竞争者（我想不出来）。现在，贝纳德·阿诺是世界上最富有的人，他经营路易威登（Louis Vuitton），他有五个孩子，他们从小就一直在为CEO的职位争夺。他们的承诺是这将是一个功绩主义的决定，这将会给一个高度受过教育、接受了商业培训的精英企业家。
and what he did I think earlier this year was he just raised the retirement age of his company from 74 to 80 years old and how old is he can play a few more so he can play a few more seasons he's 74 exactly he wants six years wonder why he did it and that's kind of the case with a lot of succession stories and this was the case in succession where we're gonna have this promise that I'm gonna you know that the leader is gonna step down as CEO but we'll see when it actually happens that that's kind of been going on at JP Morgan too yeah
我认为他今年早些时候所做的是将他公司的退休年龄从74岁提高到80岁，他可以再打几个赛季，他现年74岁，他想要六年，不知道他为什么这么做。这在很多交接故事中都是一个典型案例, "继承者"里也是这样，我们将会看到领导人承诺他会卸任首席执行官，但我们得当真看见他这么做了。而这样的情况在摩根大通也普遍发生。
and I am gonna go back to the show for a minute and I'm gonna go back to the first season because of course the show starts with Kendall is the heir apparent Kendall I mean it starts with we're about to coronate Kendall Roy as the natural successor to Logan Roy played by the brilliant Brian Cox and basically Kendall who again is is a bag of anxieties frankly he's he's completely unsuited for it and you know he kind of screws up and and dad takes the opportunity to say yeah I'm gonna stick around again much like Bernard Arnoh here
我要回到节目上一会儿，回到第一季，因为这个节目的开始就是凯文就是继承人。我的意思是，我们即将为洛根·罗伊的自然继承人凯文·罗伊举行加冕仪式。而基本上，凯文非常焦虑，完全不适合当继承人，他有点弄糊涂了，爸爸趁机说：“好吧，我又要留下来了”，就像这里的伯纳德·阿诺一样。
but if you go back and watch the the the old seasons again so the two boys are the two younger boys because again the fourth child from the first marriage conner's just kind of over in the corner doing whatever conner's doing the boys are in meshed in the in the company and they are you know again they're they're carrying for favor and trying to please daddy but also they hate daddy and Shavon is out Shavon's a PR consultant she's out
但如果你回到看旧季节的话，会发现两个男孩是两个年轻的男孩，因为第一次婚姻的第四个孩子康纳只是在一旁随便做着自己的事情，而两个男孩是被卷入公司中的，他们试图取悦爸爸，但也恨爸爸。Shavon是一位公关顾问，不参与其中。
and the way if you go back and watch those early episodes the way that Brian Cox talks to her and you can see the affection that he holds her and now he's still fairly coarse language and he's still he's still Logan Roy so he tends to run over everything in his path but the way he talks to her versus the way he talks to the kids or to the boys you can see he actually respects her more than his sons because she's left because she's gone out on her own because she's gone and built a career independent of him did did she surely have the ability to get you know to get places that you or I couldn't get because she had family connections of course but you know she she has you know she's very clearly the apple of his eye and he has the way he interacts with her and what changes is when she comes it works for him then she slots in with the with the brothers and becomes just another kind of you know everyone like it's the worst thing that she does personally is to actually come and work for her father because she loses that autonomy and she loses her father's respect and it's kind of tragic
如果你回去看早期的那几集，你就会发现Brian Cox与她交谈的方式，可以看出他对她的深情。尽管他现在的措辞仍然是粗鄙的，他仍然是Logan Roy，所以他倾向于一路冲过去。但是他与她交谈的方式与他与孩子们或男孩们交谈的方式相比，你可以看到他实际上比他的儿子更尊重她，因为她离开了，因为她独立地建立了自己的职业生涯。当然，她肯定有能力做到你我做不到的事情，因为她有家庭关系，但她明显是他眼中的掌上明珠，他与她交往的方式发生了变化，当她开始为他工作时，她就与兄弟们融为一体，成为一个普通人，最糟糕的是，她个人最糟糕的是实际上为父亲工作，因为她失去了自主权，她失去了父亲的尊重，这有点悲哀。
do you think there are any takeaways for investors from from from the show succession I'll give you I'll give you a couple one is really quick I am wary of you know the succession plan is based on DNA I I like a true meritocracy
你认为投资者从《继承战争》这个节目中能学到什么经验吗？我可以告诉你其中一些。首先，我认为继承计划基于DNA是有问题的，因为我更喜欢真正的精英主义。
I want the best person for the job and I don't particularly care where they came from so that's number one and that's very broad.
我希望选最适合的人来完成这项工作，我并不在乎他们来自哪里，这是第一位的要求，而且非常广泛。
The narrow one I do have one more example of just the something that I'm going to want to avoid because look most of the time you don't really see when a CEO transition is coming and when it comes quite often like you know like I it's very easy for me to say a succession Tim Cook versus Steve Jobs Tim Cook is a much better CEO than Steve Jobs could have been for Apple yeah but it's 12 years of experience I can draw on right to make that assertion in the moment you don't know about it but I am and and and and and and part parcel of that assertion is I am wary when a CEO makes himself part of the show and Steve Jobs was very much for right we are wrongly very much part of the show Tim Cook likes to stay in the background and and another example I'm going to give you here is what I call the dueling Bob's okay that is the Bob Iger Bob TAPIC.
我还有另一个例子，是我想要避免的事情，因为很多时候你真的看不出CEO的接替会发生什么，有时候就像，我很容易就能说接替Steve Jobs的CEO Tim Cook比Steve Jobs更适合担任苹果公司的CEO，但需要利用12年的经验去做出这样的断言，你在那个时刻并不知道，而且我对于那样的断言持谨慎态度，因为Steve Jobs很大程度上是在炫耀自己，而Tim Cook更喜欢保持低调。我要再举个例子，就是我所谓的“决斗Bob”，指的是Bob Iger和Bob TAPIC。
Bob Iger absolutely makes himself part of the show okay he has so much power and he he did the whole all shucks you know I mean I'm gonna yeah he was doing that for years before he actually left in 2020 then his hand pick successor Bob I Bob TAPIC comes in and he's almost immediately and constantly undermined by board member Bob Iger former CEO Bob Iger right and you know he's blame for stuff I will note that Disney hit its all-time share price high under Bob TAPIC just gonna put that out there but you know Igers constantly you know undermining him even though you know the world is upside down with their parks are closed due to covid you know the code everything is just off-kilter completely he's inherited the debt associated with the Fox Fox acquisition which was made under Bob Iger.
鲍勃·艾格绝对让自己成为了这个节目的一部分，他拥有如此强大的权力，他在之前很多年就一直做着"噢，你懂的"的表演，甚至在2020年离开之前都是如此。然后他的选择继任者鲍勃·B·塔皮克进来后，就几乎立即被董事会成员、前CEO鲍勃·艾格不断地削弱，一些错事也被怪罪在他身上。值得注意的是，迪士尼在鲍勃·塔皮克的领导下创下了有史以来的最高股价，这点也要强调一下。尽管世界因为COVID-19疫情关闭了该公司的主题公园等等，一切都变得不稳定了，而他却继承了Bob Iger在收购福克斯公司时所带来的债务。
He is inherited you know what I you know I'm of the opinion most streaming services are gonna basically provide value to subscribers and no value to companies sorry Netflix sorry prime and Disney plus by all accounts is losing money right but he inherits that and so he's just beset on all sides and then and and he even got the wonderful stamp of approval from the board we which I mean at that point I hope he started his eyes are may polishing it up but he gets a stamp of approval from the board I think about seven or eight months before Bob Iger knife some in the back when some pandemic is largely over and he can reassign and and then Bob Iger almost immediately starts like oh shock I'm not gonna be here that long yeah okay.
他继承了你知道的，我认为大多数流媒体服务基本上为订阅者提供价值而对公司没有价值，抱歉Netflix、Prime和Disney Plus，据说都在亏损，但他继承了这一切，所以他面临着来自各方面的困扰。而且，他甚至得到了董事会的美好祝福，我希望他在那时开始睁开自己的眼睛并着手处理。约七八个月后，当一些大流行病基本结束时，Bob Iger会重新分配任务，然后几乎立即开始感到震惊，"我不会在这里呆太久"，好吧。
If I'm if I'm the CEO candidate for the next time Bob Igers wanted to leave and you know I am not but if I was one of the potential candidates I would have my my employment contract drawn up where like I get a billion dollars if Bob Iger sets foot on Disneyland park ever like like you can't trust the scenario you might as well just give it to Iger until he dies because no one's gonna trust him and so you've now got this kind of fiat state run by Bob Iger and I think that detracts and look Disney's share price returns have been you know mediocre for years frankly which is bizarre for a company that owns childhood so I just I tell me I'm wrong.
如果我是下一个时期鲍勃·艾格离开后的CEO候选人，你知道我不是，但如果我是其中一位潜在的候选人，我会起草我的雇佣合同，例如，如果鲍勃·艾格足迹曾踩在迪士尼乐园中，我会得到十亿美元。你不能相信这种情况，你最好给艾格直到他去世都拥有权力，因为没有人会信任他，所以现在你有这种由鲍勃·艾格运营的虚假状态，这会减损迪士尼的股价回报，老实说，这对一个拥有童年的公司来说是奇怪的，所以我告诉你我错了。
I think one reason you're not gonna be the CEO is the promise that the streaming service will never ever make money but no I see what you're saying I think something that Iger and Jack Welch actually haven't common is that there might have been a deliberate and I'm saying may possibly who knows a deliberate almost sandbagging of the replacement where you don't want the next person because no one can do the job quite like you can exactly so whether it's Jeff ML Bob Chaypeck they come in as the hand pick successor from the CEO and there may be a subliminal knowledge from that person that it's not it's not gonna run as well as it could under me because that's impossible yeah and I will I will also note that of course Jack Welch managed to not not just blow up GE with Jeff ML in the background but he kind of did a deal on Home Depot too right because Bob Nardelli who lost out on the GE job goes to Home Depot and just was you know brutal there for years and only after he was ousted which I think was early 07 and no tears for Bob Nardelli got a quarter billion dollars to go away but only after he was ousted did Home Depot just turn into this fantastic cash generating engine that it has become and that I get you know like I think the stock is I'm gonna make up a number I think it's about 320 bucks today ballpark.
我认为你不会成为首席执行官的一个原因是，流媒体服务永远不会盈利的承诺。但是，我明白你的意思。我认为，艾格和杰克·韦尔奇实际上有一个共同点，就是可能会有一个故意的、几乎是故意拖延接班人的做法。因为你并不希望下一任接班人，因为没有人能像你一样做得这么好。所以，无论是Jeff ML、Bob Chaypeck还是其他人，都是首席执行官亲自挑选的接班人。那个人可能会潜意识地知道，它不会像在我的统治下那样运转得那么好，因为那是不可能的。我还想指出，当然，杰克·韦尔奇在没有让GE和Jeff ML爆炸的情况下，还在Home Depot做了笔交易。因为失去GE的工作，鲍勃·纳德利去了Home Depot，在那里残酷地工作了几年。他被解雇后，才得到了2.5亿美元的补偿。但只有在他被解雇后，Home Depot才成为这个发电机变得越来越好的公司。我认为，股票今天大约在320美元左右。
I have very fond memories of Home Depot. You know, you could have bought Home Depot. You heard of them, you know, they're in one or two cities around North America. You could have bought Home Depot for like, you know, 19 dollars in the wake of Bob Nardelli's exit, which to me is just fascinating. It's so much value is created, but you know, again, Bob Nardelli, candidate for GE, loses, and GE goes over and tries to apply the GE method at Home Depot and fails miserably. And I think that's another lesson, just because you might have come from a system that has a much-bought CEO, I'm not sure that if you go to a different culture, a different company, it's gonna translate. It might, in fact, just explode.
我对家得宝有很多美好的回忆。你知道吗，你本来可以购买家得宝的。你肯定听说过他们，他们在北美的一两个城市里。在鲍勃·纳德利辞职之后，你本可以以19美元的价格购买家得宝，这对我来说非常有趣。这创造了如此大的价值，但你知道，鲍勃·纳德利参加通用电气总裁竞选失败后，GE 到家得宝试图应用 GE 的方法，但失败惨重。我认为这是另一个教训，就是即使你来自有一位备受追捧的CEO的系统，我不确定如果你去到不同的文化，不同的公司，它会转化。事实上，它可能会爆炸。
As always, people on the program may have interest in the stocks they talk about, and the monthly formal recommendations for or against. So don't buy yourself stocks based solely on what you hear. I'm Chris Hill. Thanks for listening. We'll see you tomorrow.
像往常一样，节目中的人可能对他们谈论的股票感兴趣，并可能给出正式的月度推荐意见。因此，不要仅基于听到的内容购买股票。我是Chris Hill。感谢收听。我们明天见。