Greetings and welcome to the Microsoft fiscal year, 2020-33rd quarter earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. A question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. If anyone wants to require operator assistance during the conference, please press star zero on your telephone keypad. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.
Good afternoon and thank you for joining us today. On the call with me are Saki Dadella, chairman of Chief Executive Officer, Amy Hood, Chief Financial Officer, Alice Jollett, Chief Accounting Officer, and Keith Oliver, Deputy General Council. On the Microsoft Invest Relations website, you can find our earnings press release and financial summary slide deck, which is intended to supplement our prepared remarks during today's call and provides the reconciliation of differences between gap and non-gap financial measures.
Additionally, new this quarter, more detailed outlook slides will be available on the Microsoft Invest Relations website when we provide outlook commentary on today's call. On this call, we will discuss certain non-gap items. The non-gap financial measures provided should not be considered as a substitute for or superior to the measures of financial performance prepared in accordance with gap. They are included as additional clarifying items to aid investors in further understanding the company's third quarter performance in addition to the impact these items and events have on the financial results.
All growth comparisons we make on the call today relate to the corresponding period of last year unless otherwise noted. We will also provide growth rates in constant currency when available as a framework for assessing how our underlying businesses performed, excluding the effective foreign currency rate fluctuations. Where growth rates are the same in constant currency, we will refer to the growth rate only. We will post our prepared remarks to our website immediately following the call until the complete transcript is available.
Today's call is being broadcast live and reported. If you ask a question, it will be included in our live transmission in the transcript and in any future use of the reporting. You can replay the call and view the transcript on the Microsoft Invest Relations website. During this call, we will be making four looking statements which are predictions, projections, or other statements about future events.
These statements are based on current expectations and assumptions that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Actual results could be different because the factors discussed in today's earnings press release in the comments made during this call and in the risk factor section of our form 10K, form 10Q, and other reports and filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. We do not undertake any duty to update any foreign looking statement.
Elefak, I'll try to look all over Satya. Thank you very much, Brett. The Microsoft Cloud delivered over $28 billion in quarterly revenue, up 22% and 25% in constant currency, demonstrating our continued leadership across the tech stack. We continue to focus on three priorities. First helping customers use the breadth and depth of the Microsoft Cloud to get the most value out of their digital spend. Second investing to lead in the new AI wave across our solution areas and expanding our time. And third driving, operating leverage, aligning our cost structure with our revenue growth.
Now I'll highlight examples of our progress starting with infrastructure. Azure took share as customers continue to choose how ubiquitous computing fabric from Cloud to Edge, especially as every application becomes AI-powered. We have the most powerful AI infrastructure and is being used by our partner OpenAI as well as in video and leading AI startups like Adapt and Inflation to train large models. Our Azure OpenAI service brings together advanced models including chat GPT and GPT-4 with the enterprise capabilities of Azure. From Corsera and Grammily to Mercedes-Benz and Shell, we now have more than 2500 Azure OpenAI service customers up 10x quarter over quarter.
Just last week Epic system shared that it was using Azure OpenAI service to integrate this next generation AI with its industry leading EHR software. Azure also powers OpenAI API and you're pleased to see brands like Shopify and Snap use the API to integrate OpenAI's models. So broadly we continue to see the world's largest enterprises migrate key workloads to our Cloud. UnityLiver for example went all in on Azure this quarter in one of the largest ever Cloud migrations in the consumer goods industry. IKEA Retail, I&G Bank, Robo Bank, Telstra and Wolverine worldwide all use Azure Arc to run Azure services across on-premise, Edge and multi-cloud environments.
We now have more than 15,000 Azure Arc customers up over 150% year over year and we are extending our infrastructure to 5G network edge with Azure for operators. We are the clouded choice for telcos and at MWC last month AT&T Deutsche Telekom, Sintel and Telefonica all shared how they are using our infrastructure to modernize and monetize their networks.
Now onto data. Our intelligent data platform brings together databases, analytics and governance so organizations can spend more time creating value and less time integrating their data estate. Cosmos DB is the go-to database powering the world's most demanding workloads that any scale. OpenAI relies on Cosmos DB to dynamically scale the chat GPT service, one of the fastest growing consumer apps ever enabling high reliability and low maintenance. The NBA uses Cosmos DB to ingest more than 10 million data points for game helping teams optimize their gameplay. And we are taking share with our analytics solutions companies like VP, Canadian Tire, Mox and Spencer and T-Mobile all rely on our end-to-end analytics to improve speed to insight.
Now onto developers. From Visual Studio to GitHub we have the most popular tools to help every developer go from idea to code and code to cloud all while staying in their flow. Today 76% of the Fortune 500 use GitHub to build, ship and maintain software and with GitHub Copilot the first app scale AI developer tool we are fundamentally transforming the productivity of every developer from novices to experts. In three months since we made Copilot for business broadly available, over 10,000 organizations have signed up including the lights of Coca-Cola and GM as well as Duolingo and Mercado Libre all of which credit Copilot with increasing the speed for their developers. We are also bringing next generation AI to power platforms so anyone can automate workflows, create apps or web pages, build virtual agents and analyze data using only natural language. More than 36,000 organizations have already used existing AI power capabilities in power platform and with our new Copilot and Power Apps we are extending these capabilities to end users who can interact with any app through conversation instead of clicks. All of we now have nearly 33 million monthly active users of power platform up nearly 50% year or year.
现在我们来谈论开发者。无论是使用 Visual Studio 还是 GitHub,我们都提供了最受欢迎的工具,帮助每个开发者从想法到代码,从代码到云端,让他们在工作中保持流畅。如今,有 76% 的财富 500 强公司使用 GitHub 来构建、发布和维护软件。而有了 GitHub Copilot 这一全新的应用规模 AI 开发工具,从初学者到专家,我们都在根本性地提升了每个开发者的生产率。自我们将 Copilot 作为商业工具广泛放开以来,短短三个月内,就有超过 10,000 家机构进行了注册,其中包括可口可乐、通用汽车等著名公司,还有 Duolingo 和 Mercado Libre 等公司,全部都赞赏Copilot 帮助他们提速。我们正在将下一代 AI 引入平台,使任何人都可以使用自然语言来自动化工作流程、创建应用或网页、构建虚拟代理和分析数据。如今已经有超过 36,000 家公司使用了 Power Platform 的现有 AI 能力。而现在,我们通过 Copilot 和 Power Apps 将这些能力扩展到最终用户,他们可以通过对话而不是点击与任何应用程序进行交互。我们现在拥有将近 3300 万月活跃用户,同比增长了近 50%。
Now onto business applications. Our customer experience and service to finance and supply chain we continue to take share across all categories we serve as organizations like Asahi, C.H. Robinson, Eon, Franklin Templeton, choose our AI power business applications to automate, simulate and predict every business process and function. And we are going further with Dynamics 365 Copilot which works across CRM and ERP systems to bring the next generation AI to employees in every job function. You are using burdensome tasks like manual data entry, content generation and note taking.
Now onto our industry and cross-industry solutions. Our cloud for sustainability seems strong adoption from companies in every industry including BDC, Nissan and TCL as they deliver on their respective environmental commitment. Our cloud for healthcare was front and center at HIMS last week as we expanded our offerings for bears and added new AI powered capabilities for providers. We showcase the first fully AI-automated clinical documentation application, Neon's DAX Express which will bring GPT-4 to more than 550,000 existing users of Dragon Medical. And at Hanover Massay, manufacturing, trade show, Siemens shared how it will use a team's app integrated with Azure Open AI service to optimize factory workflows.
现在,让我们来谈谈我们的行业和跨行业解决方案。我们的可持续云平台获得了包括BDC、日产和TCL在内的各行各业的公司的强烈认可,因为它们身体力行地履行了各自的环保承诺。我们的医疗云平台在上周的HIMS展上受到了瞩目,因为我们为医生和提供者增加了新的人工智能功能。我们展示了第一个完全由人工智能自动化的临床文献应用程序——Neon's DAX Express,该应用程序将让超过550,000名现有的Dragon Medical用户体验到GPT-4。在汉诺威马塞制造贸易展上,西门子公司分享了如何使用一个团队的应用程序与Azure Open AI服务集成,以优化工厂的工作流程。
Now onto future work. Microsoft 365 Copilot combines next generation AI with business data in the Microsoft Graph and Microsoft 365 applications, removing the drudgery and unleashing the creativity of work. Copilot works alongside users embedded in the Microsoft 365 applications millions use every day and it also powers business chat which uses natural language to surface information and insights based on business content and context. We've been encouraged by early feedback and looked forward to bringing these experiences to more users in the coming months.
现在我们来谈谈未来的工作。Microsoft 365 Copilot 将下一代人工智能与 Microsoft Graph 和 Microsoft 365 应用程序中的业务数据相结合,消除了工作的枯燥乏味,释放了创造力。Copilot 与每天数百万人使用的 Microsoft 365 应用程序一起工作,并且还可以为企业聊天提供动力,该聊天使用自然语言根据业务内容和上下文呈现信息和见解。我们已经得到了早期反馈的鼓励,并期待在未来几个月将这些体验带给更多用户。
Team usage is at an all time high and surpassed 300 million monthly active users this quarter and we once again took share across every category from collaboration to chat to meetings to calling as we add value for existing customers and win new ones like ADN Amro or Jaguar Landro or Matros firm Unises and Votiform.
We announced a new version of Teams the delivers after two times faster performance while using 50% less memory so customers can collaborate more efficiently and prepare for experiences like Copilot. Teams is also expanding our time nearly 60% about enterprise teams customers by Teams phone rooms or premium. Teams phone is the undisputed market leader in cloud calling helping our customers reduce cost with a 3 year ROI of over 140%.
Teams rooms revenue more than double year over year and Teams premium meets enterprise demand for AI powered features like intelligent recap. Now generally available it's one of our fastest growing modern work products ever with thousands of paid customers just two months in.
With Microsoft Viva we have created a completely new suite for employee experience. Viva brings together goals, communication, learning, workplace analytics and employee feedback across industries companies like Dell, Mastercard and SDS are using Viva to help their employees thrive.
Last week we announced Copilot for Viva offering leaders a new way to build high performance teams by prioritizing both productivity and employee engagement. With Viva sales we've extended the platform to specific job functions helping sellers apply large language models to their CRM and Microsoft 365 data so that they can automatically generate content like customer mail.
Global innovation is driving growth across Microsoft 365, for the rodeo, Goldman Sachs, Nougat Nordes, and Rogers all chose e5 to empower their employees with our best in class productivity apps along with advanced security, compliance, voice and analytics.
全球创新正在推动 Microsoft 365 的增长,Rodeo、高盛、Nougat Nordes 和 Rogers 等公司选择使用 e5,为员工提供我们的最佳生产力应用程序以及先进的安全、合规性、语音和分析功能。
Now want to windows. While the PC market continues to face headwinds we again saw record monthly active windows devices and higher usage compared to pre-pandemic. It also seeing accelerated growth in windows 11 commercial deployments over 90% of the Fortune 500 out of current retryling or have deployed windows 11.
And with windows 365 and Azure Virtual Desktop we continue to transform how employees at companies like Mazda and nationwide access windows. All of our over one third of our enterprise customers base has purchased cloud delivered windows to date and new windows 365 frontline extends the power and security of cloud PCs to shift workers for the first time.
通过 Windows 365 和 Azure 虚拟桌面,我们持续改变马自达等公司和全国员工访问 Windows 的方式。我们超过三分之一的企业客户已经购买了云交付的 Windows,而新的 Windows 365 前线可首次将云计算机的强大和安全性扩展到轮班工人。
Now want to security. Our comprehensive AI power solution spanning all clowns and all platforms give the agility advantage back to defenders. Among analysts we are the leader in more categories than any other provider and we once again took shared across all major categories we served and we continue to introduce new products and functionality to further protect customers with security co pilot.
We are combining large language models with a domain specific model informed by our threat intelligence and 65 trillion daily security signals to transform every aspect of the SOC productivity. And we also added new governance controls and policy protections to better secure identities along with resources to access nearly 720,000 organizations now use Azure Active Directory up 32% year over year.
And all up nearly 600,000 customers now have four or more security workloads up 35% year over year underscoring our end to end differentiation. EY and Qualcomm for example both shows a full security stack to ensure the highest levels of protection visibility across their organizations.
Now want to link them. We once again saw record engagement as more than 930 million members turn to the professional social network to connect, learn, sell and get hired.
Member group accelerated for the seventh consecutive quarter as we expanded to new audiences. We now have a hundred million members in India up 19%. And as Gen Z entered the workforce, we saw 73% year over year increase in the number of student signups.
In this persistently tight labor market, LinkedIn Townsolution continues to help hire connected job seekers and professionals to build a skill they need to access opportunity. Our hiring business took share for the third consecutive quarter.
The excitement around AI is creating new opportunities across every function for marketing sales and fans to software development and security. LinkedIn is increasingly where people are going to learn, discuss and up level their skills with more than a hundred AI courses.
And they've introduced new AI power features including writing suggestions for member profiles and job descriptions and collaborative articles. Finally, LinkedIn marketing solutions continues to be a leader in B2B digital advertising, helping companies deliver the right message to the right audience on a safe trusted platform.
More broadly, we continue to expand our opportunity in advertising. Our exclusive partnership with Netflix brings differentiated premium video content to our ad network and our new co-pilot for the web is reshaping daily search and web habits.
Two months since the launch of new Bing and Edge, we are very encouraged by user feedback and usage patterns. All up, Bing is more than a hundred million daily active users. They're winning new customers on Windows and mobile, daily installs of the Bing mobile app have grown 4x since launch. We are making progress in share games. Edge took share for the eighth consecutive quarter and Bing once again grew share in the United States. We continue to innovate with first of their kind AI powered features including the ability to set the tone of chat and create images from text prompts powered by Dolly. For 200 million images have been created date and we see that when people use these new AI features, their engagement with Bing and Edge goes up.
As we look towards a future where chat becomes a new way for people to seek information, consumers have real choice in business model and modalities with Azure powered chat entry points across Bing, Edge, Windows and Open AI's chat GPT. We look forward to continuing this journey in what is a generational shift in the largest software category search.
Now on to gaming. We're rapidly executing on our ambition to be the first choice for people to play great games whenever, however, and wherever they want. We set third quarter records for monthly active users and monthly active devices. Across our content and services business, we're delivering on our commitment to offer gamers more ways to experience the game they love. Our revenue from subscriptions reached nearly $1 billion this quarter. This quarter we also brought PC game tasks to 14 new countries nearly doubling the number of markets we are available. Great content remains the flywheel behind our growth. We have now surpassed 500 million lifetime unique users across our first party titles and have never been more excited about our pipeline of games including the fourth quarter launches of Minecraft Legends and Red Falls.
In closing, we are focused on continuing to raise the bond on our operational excellence and performance as we innovate to help our customers maximize the value of their existing technology investments and thrive in the new era of AI. In a few weeks time, we will hold our build conference where we will share how we are building the most powerful AI platform for developers and I encourage you to tune in. I could not be more energized about the opportunities ahead and let me turn it over to Amy.
Thank you, Sakya. Good afternoon everyone. Our third quarter revenue was $52.9 billion at 7% and 10% in constant currency. Earnings for share was $2.45 and increased 10% and 14% in constant currency. Our results exceeded expectations driven by focused execution from our sales teams and partners.
In our commercial business, revenue was up 19% in constant currency. We felt better than expected for a new strength including across Microsoft 365 which also benefited Windows commercial given the higher end period revenue recognition. In Office 365 standalone products, we saw improvement in new business growth while growth trends in EMS and Windows commercial standalone products were main consistent with Q2. In Azure customers continued to exercise some caution as optimization and new workload trends from the prior quarter continued as expected.
In our consumer business, PT demand was a bit better than we expected, particularly in the commercial segment which benefited Windows OEM and Surface even as channel inventory levels remain elevated which negatively impacted results. We have seen shared gains in Azure, Dynamics, Teams, Security, Edge and Bing as we continue to focus on delivering high value as well as new innovative solutions to our customers, including next generation AI capabilities.
Commercial bookings increased 11% and 12% in constant currency on a strong prior year comparable with the declining X-Pri base and three points of unfavorable impact from the inclusion of nuance in the prior year. The better than expected result was driven by strong execution across our renewal sales motions mentioned earlier. Commercial remaining performance obligation increased 26% to 196 billion dollars. Roughly 45% will be recognized in revenue in the next 12 months of 18% year over year. The remaining portion was recognized beyond the next 12 months increased 34%. And this quarter are a new remix, or again 96%.
FX impact on total company revenue, segment level revenue, and operating expense growth was as expected. FX decreased COD's growth by 2.1 point favorable expectations.
Microsoft Cloud revenue was 28.5 billion dollars and grew 22% in 25% in constant currency, slightly ahead of expectations. Microsoft Cloud gross margin percentage increased roughly 2.0 over year to 72%. Point ahead of expectations, driven by cloud engineering efficiencies.
Excluding the impact of the change in accounting estimate from this July's Microsoft Cloud gross margin percentage decreased slightly, driven by lower azure margin. Co-cne gross margin dollars increased 9% and 13% in constant currency, including 2 points due to the change in accounting estimate.
Gross margin percentage increased year over year to 69%. Excluding the impact of the change in accounting estimate, gross margin percentage decreased slightly, driven by a lower mix of OEM revenue.
Operating expense increased 7% and 9% in constant currency, about 300 million dollars lower than expected. Operating expense growth was driven by roughly 2 points from the nuanced and zander positions, as well as investments in cloud engineering and lengthen.
At a total company level, head count at the end of March was 9% higher than a year ago. Operating income increased 10% and 15% in constant currency, including 4 points due to the change in accounting estimate. Operating margins increased roughly 1.0 over year to 42%.
Now, to our segment results. Revenue from productivity and business processes was 17.5 billion dollars and grew 11% and 15% in constant currency, ahead of expectations, primarily driven by better than expected results in office commercial.
Office commercial revenue grew 13% and 17% in constant currency. Office 365 commercial revenue increased 14% and 18% in constant currency. It's slightly better than expected with the strong renewal execution mentioned earlier and E5 momentum.
Paid Office 365 commercial seat school 11% year over year to over 382 million, with installed this expansion across all workloads and customer segments. Seat growth was again driven by our small and medium business and front line worker offering.
Office commercial licensing declined 1% and increased 5% in constant currency, better than expected with 11 points of benefits from transactional strength in Japan.
LinkedIn revenue increased 8% and 10% in constant currency, driven by growth and talent solutions. Dynamics revenue grew 17% and 21% in constant currency, driven by Dynamics 365, which grew 25% and 29% in constant currency, with healthy growth across all workloads.
Segment growth margin dollars increased 14% and 18% in constant currency, and growth margin percentage increased roughly 2.0 over year, including the impact of the change in accounting estimates, growth margin percentage increased slightly, driven by improvements and Office 365 partially offset by sales mix ships to cloud offerings.
Increasing expenses increased 4% and 5% in constant currency, and operating income increased 20% and 27% in constant currency, including 4 points to do the change in accounting estimates.
Next, the intelligent cloud segment. Revenue was 22.1 billion dollars, increasing 16% and 19% in constant currency, slightly ahead of expectations. Overall, server products and cloud services revenue increased 17% and 21% in constant currency, Azure and other cloud services revenue grew 27% and 31% in constant currency.
In our per user business, enterprise mobility and security install base grew 15% to nearly 250 million seats. In our on-premises server business revenue decreased 2%, and was relatively unchanged in constant currency.
It continued demand for our hybrid offerings, including Windows Server and people server running in multi cloud environments, offset by transactional licensing. Enterprise services revenue reached 6% and 9% in constant currency with better than expected performance across enterprise support services and Microsoft consulting services.
Segment grows margin dollars increased 15%, and 18% in constant currency, and growth margin percentage decreased slightly. Excluding the impact of the change in accounting estimates, growth margin percentage declined roughly 3 points driven by sales mix shift to Azure and the lower Azure margin, the earlier operating expenses increased 19% and 20% in constant currency, including roughly 3 points of impact from the new on-fac position.
Operating income with 13% and 17% in constant currency with roughly 6 points from the change in accounting estimates.
在恒定货币的情况下,经营收入分别为13%和17%,大约有6个百分点来自会计估计变更的影响。
Now, to more personal computing, revenue was 13.3 billion dollars, decreasing 9% and 7% in constant currency with better than expected results across all businesses.
Windows commercial products and cloud services revenue increased 14%, and 18% in constant currency, significantly ahead of expectations, primarily due to the strong renewal execution with higher in-programmed revenue recognition noted earlier.
Search and news advertising revenue XTAC increased 10% in 13% in constant currency, including two points from the Xander acquisition, results were driven by higher search volume with share gains again in this quarter for edge browser globally, and being in the US.
And in gaming, revenue declined 4% and 1% in constant currency ahead of expectations, Xbox hardware revenue declined 30% and 28% in constant currency, on a high prior year comfortable, that benefited from increased console supply, Xbox content and services revenue increased 3% and 5% in constant currency, driven by better than expected monetization in third-party and first-party content, and growth in Xbox game paths.
Semiconductorous margin dollars declined 9% and 5% in constant currency, and growth margin percentage increased slightly year over year, operating expenses declined 5% and 3% in constant currency, even with three points of growth from the Xander acquisition.
Cash flow of operations was $24.4 billion, down 4% year over year, as strong cloud billings and collections, as well as lower supplier payments, were more than offset by a tax payment related to the R&D capitalization provision and employee payments primarily related to head count growth and an increase in employee compensation.
Free cash flow was $17.8 billion on 11% year over year, excluding the impacts of this tax payment, cash flow of operations increased 1% and free cash flow declined 5%.
This quarter, other income and expense was $321 million, higher than anticipated, driven by net gains and foreign currency remeasurement.
本季度其他收支为3.21亿美元,高于预期,主要是因为净收益和外币重新计量的推动。
Our effective tax rate was approximately 19%.
我们的有效税率约为19%。这意味着我们在所有税收方面花费的比例是19%。
And finally, we returned $9.7 billion to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends.
最终,我们通过股份回购和派息向股东返还了97亿美元。这是公司的利润分配方式,让股东分享公司的收益。
Now, moving to our Q4 outlook, which unless specifically noted otherwise, is on a US dollar basis.
现在,我们来看一下第四季度的前景,除非特别注明,这是以美元为基础的。
My commentary, for the next quarter in FY24, does not include any impact from acquisition, which we continue to work toward closing in fiscal year 2023, subject to obtaining required regulatory approvals.
Now, the effects, based on current rates, the expect effects to decrease total revenue growth by approximately two points with no impact to COGs or operating expense growth.
Within segments, we anticipate roughly two points of negative effects impact on revenue growth in productivity and business processes and intelligent cloud and roughly one point in more personal computing.
Overall, our outlook has many of the trends we saw in Q3 continue through Q4.
总体来说,我们的展望在第三季度看到的许多趋势在第四季度继续存在。
In our largest quarter of year, we expect customer demand for differentiated solutions, including our AI platform and consistent execution across the Microsoft cloud to drive another quarter of healthy, revivative growth.
Last year, we had our largest commercial bookings quarter ever, with a material volume of large multi-year commitments.
去年,我们的商业订购季度达到了历史最高水平,具有大量的多年承诺的实质性体量。
On that comparable, we expect growth to be relatively flat.
在相同的基础上,我们预计增长将相对平稳。
We expect consistent execution across our core and new details motions with strong renewals and continued commitments to our platform as we focus on meeting customers changing contract needs, which includes shorter term, quit times of value contracts in this dynamic environment.
Excluding that impact, Q4 cloud growth margin percentage will be relatively flat, as improvements in Office 365 will offset the lower Azure margin and the impact of scaling our AI infrastructure to meet growing demand.
Reminder, there can be normal quarterly spend variability in the timing of our cloud infrastructure built out.
提醒,我们的云基础设施建设可能会在季度支出方面出现正常的时间变动。
Next, the segment guidance.
接下来,是片段指导。
In productivity and business processes, we expect revenue to grow between 10 and 12% in constant currency or 17.9 to 18.2 billion US dollars.
在生产力和业务流程方面,我们预计收入以恒定货币增长率为10%至12%,达到179亿至182亿美元。
In Office commercial, revenue growth will again be driven by Office 365 with seat growth across customer segments and arc the growth through E5. We expect Office 365 revenue growth to be roughly 16% in constant currency. In our on-premises business, we expect revenue to climb in the low 30s.
In Office consumer, we expect revenue growth in the mid single digits driven by Microsoft 365 subscriptions. Organt DEN, we expect mid single digit revenue growth driven by talent solutions with continued strong engagement on the platform. And in dynamics, we expect revenue growth in the mid to high teams driven by continued growth in dynamics 365.
在 Office 消费者部门,我们预计,由于 Microsoft 365 订阅的推动,收入会以中个位数增长。在 Organt DEN 部门,我们预计,由于人才解决方案的推动以及对平台的持续强大参与,收入会以中个位数增长。而在 Dynamics 部门,我们预计,由于 Dynamics 365 的持续增长,收入会以中至高个位数增长。
We're intelligent cloud. We expect revenue to grow between 15 and 16% in constant currency or 23.6 to 23.9 billion US dollars. Revenue will continue to be driven by Azure, which, as a reminder, can have quarterly variability primarily for both for user business and from in period revenue recognition, depending on the mix of contracts. In Azure, we expect growth to be 26 to 27% in constant currency, including roughly one point from AI services. Growth continues to be driven by our Azure consumption business and we expect the trends from Q3 to continue into Q4, as noted earlier.
Our per user business should continue to benefit from Microsoft 365 sweet momentum, though we expect continued moderation and growth rate given the size of the installed base. In our on-premises server business, we expect revenue to decline, low single digits, as demand for our hybrid solutions, including window server and SQL server running and multi-pronged environments will be more than offset by unfavorable effects impact. And enterprise services. Revenue should be relatively unchanged year over year as growth and enterprise support services will be offset by a decline Microsoft consulting services.
In more personal computing, we expect revenue of 13.35 to 13.75 billion US dollars. PC demand should be similar to Q3 and given channel inventory still remains elevated, our revenue will lag over all market growth as it continues to normalize. Therefore, Windows OEM and Devices revenue should both decline in the low to mid 20s. In Windows commercial products and cloud services, revenue should decline low to mid single digits. While we expect healthy annuity buildings growth, driven by continued customer demand for Microsoft 365 and our dance security solutions, our reminders that our quarterly revenue growth and have variability primarily from in-period revenue recognition, depending on the mix of contracts.
Search and news advertising X-TAC revenue growth should be approximately 10%, roughly 5.5, then the overall search and news advertising revenue, driven by growth in first party revenue, the similar to Q3 and in gaming. We expect revenue growth in the mid to high single digits. We expect Xbox content services revenue growth in the low to mid teams, driven by third party and first party content, as well as Xbox game paths.
搜索和新闻广告的 X-TAC 收入增长预计将约为 10%,大致为 5.5,然后整体搜索和新闻广告收入会因第一方收入的增长而推动,与第三季度和游戏市场类似。我们预计收入增长将在中到高个位数。我们预计 Xbox 内容服务收入增长将在低到中个位数,受第三方和第一方内容以及 Xbox 游戏路径的推动。
Now back to company guidance. We expect hogs to grow between 3.4% in constant currency or 16.8 to 17 billion US dollars and operating expense to grow approximately 2% in constant currency or 15.1 to 15.2 billion US dollars. Other income and expense to be roughly $300 million of interest income is expected to more than offset interest expense. As a reminder, we are required to recognize market games or losses on our equity portfolio which can increase quarterly volatility. We expect our Q4 effective tax rate to be in line with our full year rate of approximately 15%.
And finally, as a reminder for Q4 cash flow, we expect to make a $1.3 billion cash tax payment related to the R&D capitalization provision. Now, I'd like to share some closing thoughts as we look to the next fiscal year. With our leadership position, as we begin this AI era, we remain focused on strategically managing the company to deliver differentiated customer value, as well as long-term financial growth and profitability.
As with any significant platform shift, it starts with innovation. And we are excited about the early feedback and demand signal for the AI capabilities we have announced today. We will continue to invest in our cloud infrastructure, particularly AI-related spend, as we scale with the growing demand driven by customer transformation. And we expect the resulting revenue to grow over time.
As always, we remain committed to aligning cost and revenue growth to deliver difficult profitability. Therefore, while the scaled cat-backed investments will impact COD's growth, we expect FY24 operating expense growth to remain low.
As a team, we have continually focused on pivoting our resources aggressively to the future, as we execute at a high level in the moment to deliver value to our customers. That balance has enabled the company to successfully lead across a number of platform shifts over a number of decades. Therefore, we are committed to leading the AI platform wave and making the investments to support it.
With that, let's go to Q&A. Brett? Thanks, Amy. Out of respect for others on the call, we request that participants please only ask one question. Joe, can you please repeat your instruction?
Ladies and gentlemen, if you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad, and the confirmation tunnel indicate your line is on the question queue. You may press star two if you would like to remove your question from the queue. Your participants using speaker equipment may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. One moment please, while we pull for questions.
Our first question comes from the line of Keith Weiss with Morton Stanley. Please proceed. Excellent. Thank you guys for taking the question. Congratulations, I'm really a fantastic senator and we all know to be a still difficult environment out there. I think it really illustrates Microsoft's advantages and also a lot of these technology innovations that you guys have been talking about.
I wanted to ask you a question that I get probably more often than anything else. One that I don't have a good answer to and that's around the OpenAI partnership and particularly the counting for that partnership. I hope you can give us a little bit of color about whether or not Revenue is flowing from it, OpenAI, and Microsoft on the cat-backed side of the equation whether it is any aim fashion. We give us a better understanding of how we are counting around that relationship with working.
Thanks, Keith. In some ways, let me start by saying it's a great partnership. We're proud to work together for a number of years leading to some of the announcements that you've heard us make more recently. We talked about the foundation of our partnership, that when we both are successful, the other benefits. When we grow, it helps them, and when they grow, it helps us. Specifically to your question on how does it show up? It's easiest in this situation to think about them as a customer of ours, like any other customer who would use the Azure infrastructure and our Azure AI services in service of supporting their customers. When they do that, like any other customer who has a commercial relationship with us, we recognize Revenue on that behalf. That's probably the simplest frame that I hope is helpful.
Our next question comes from the line of Mark Morgler with Bernstein Research. Please proceed. Congratulations on the quarter and the guidance, and thanks for taking my question. I'd like to drill into Azure, and we're specifically Azure, IAS, past consumption. IAS, past consumption, has really stepped down recently, and it's important to understand the macro versus macro optimization that will rebound, whether it's going to rebound quickly, or is there a more fundamental issue? In other words, is this simply purely macro and everyone is stepping back a little bit, and they can hit the pedal as soon as this comes back? Or is there something more fundamental that is driving corporate, maybe, to stack back in that that slowdown to sustain even when the IT spending rebounds?
Thank you. Thanks, Mark, for the question. Many of our three comments. And it's also important, I think, to distinguish between what I would say, macro, absolute performance, and relative performance, because I think that's perhaps a good way to think about how we manage our business. First, as optimizations, do continue. In fact, we are focused on it. We send out people to help our customers with optimization because we believe in the long run. That's the best way to secure the loyalty and long-term contracts with customers when they know that they can count on a cloud provider like us, or to help them continuously optimize their work.
That's sort of a fundamental benefit of public cloud, and we're taking every opportunity to prove that out of it with customers in real time. The second thing I'd say is we do have new workload started, because if you think about it during the pandemic, it was all about new workloads and scaling workloads. But pre-pandemic, there was a balance between optimizations and new workloads. So what we're seeing now is the new workload start in addition to highly intense optimization and maintenance that we have.
The third is perhaps more of a relative statement, because of some of the work we've done in AI, even in the last couple of courses, we are now seeing conversations we never had, whether it's coming to you and just open AI's API. If you think about the consumer tech companies that are all spinning essentially Azure meters, second, even Azure open AI, API customers are all new, and the workload conversations, whether it's B2C conversations in financial services, or drug discovery on another side. These are all new workloads that we really were not at the game in the past, whereas we now are.
So those are the three comments that make both in terms of absolute macro, but more importantly, I think what is our relative market position and how it's being changed? More clearly, the one thing I would add to those comments is we've been through almost a year where that pivot that Satya talked about from where starting tons of new workloads will call that the pandemic time to this transition post, and we're coming to really the anniversary of that starting. And so Satya's point, we're continuing to send optimizations, but at some point workloads just can't be optimized much further. And when you start to anniversary that, you do see that it gets a little bit easier in terms of the comps year over year. And so you didn't see that in a little bit of our guidance. Some of that impact from a year over year basis. That was incredibly helpful. I really do appreciate it. Thank you for the color and again, congratulations on what's happening. Thanks, Bart. Joe, next question please.
Next question comes from the line of Brent Till with Jeffries. Please proceed. Thanks. On co-pilot monetization, can you just give us a sense of how this shows up where we're going to see it and ultimately, is there a simple price list that you think you can get through co-pilot say 10, 20, 30 percent above where you saw the regular components of a sweeter? Is it too hard to factor in? Thank you. Overall, we do plan to monetize a separate set of meters across all of the tech stack, whether they're convention meters or for user subscriptions.
The co-pilot that's priced and it is there is GitHub co-pilot. That's a good example of incrementally how we monetize the prices from there and others are to be priced because they're in preview mode. You can expect us to do what we've done to get up co-pilot pretty much across the board.
Yeah, Brent, the best way of thinking about this is when we believe we're adding a lot of value and frankly, that's what the co-pilot's are doing and some productivity improvement. You can expect that we will have a list price for those and you'll be able to look at that as they get to release and the fact is point GitHub co-pilot is a great example. Thanks. Thanks, Brent. Next question please.
Our next question comes from the line of Ray Mo Longshow with Bartlai's. Please proceed. Thank you. Convert from me as well. Just stay on the AI team and more thinking about the growth margin impact on Azure. Can you just, Patrick, can you maybe talk a little bit about how you see the cost of compute for AI workloads versus the classic workloads and how do you think that will evolve over time? Thank you.
我们的下一个问题来自Bartlai公司的Ray Mo Longshow先生,请问您有什么问题。谢谢。也请允许我提出一个问题。我想请你们集中关注AI团队,思考Azure增长利润的影响。Patrick,你可以谈一下你如何看待AI工作负载与传统工作负载的计算成本,以及它们在未来如何发展吗?谢谢。
Yeah, a couple of minutes. One is clearly the accelerated compute is what gets used to drive AI. And the thing that we are very, very focused on is to make sure that we get it very efficient in the usage of those resources. To think about the hybrid scale and how it's not just rack and stack hardware, they're used software to optimize the performance of a given workload and in fact heterogeneous workloads and give them hardware. And so we have many knobs that will continuously continue to drive optimization across it. And you see it even for a given generation of a large model where we started to be able to do the cost for to where we end in the cost for to even in a period of a quarter changes. So you can expect us to do what we've done over the decade plus of the public cloud to bring the benefits of, I say, continuous optimization of our cogs to a diverse set of workloads.
The other thing I've mentioned is that there are a lot of workloads now. Like one of the reasons why we got together with OpenAI primarily was because we were able to get it back to the core. And we came out and said this type of workload, whether it's a training or an entrance workload, is going to be much more generally relevant for us, not just in the context of AI. And so you can see our supply in other contexts as well.
And Rimmel, we talked a bit about this when we talked about the new edge and the new bang with analysts. And I think one of the important things to keep in mind, which Satya is pointing to, is that it's not really just the cost of Azure and the ability to optimize across the Azure workloads. It's that really, even our first party workloads and apps that are built, right, are built on the same platform.
And we're able, because we are a type of scaler, and because we have a large commercial cloud first party as well as consumer apps like Bing that are first party, we're able to take advantage of that and GPU utilization AI services utilization across the stack. And so it's not just sort of where Satya wanted to even up water, been a fit of being a hyper scaler. Thank you.
Thanks for that. Well, Joe, next question please. Our next question comes from the line of Keith Bachman with BMO. Please proceed.
谢谢。好的,乔,接下来请发问。下一个问题来自BMO的Keith Bachman。请继续。
Good afternoon. Good evening. Thank you for taking the question. Any other questions you have to set up to you if I could?
下午好。晚上好。非常感谢您回答我的问题。如果您有其他问题,我可以为您设置。希望翻译清晰易懂。
On your prepared remarks, you comment that you thought that operating expense growth would be low. So I think it's just maybe flush that out with some broader comments. Excuse me. Could you talk about how you see any kind of directional color on how you see great margins evolving given mix and particularly supporting generative AI and or any other comments that might help shape our thinking as we begin to look at the operating margin for the next fiscal year? Thank you.
Thanks, Keith. It's probably a good opportunity to explain a bit about how I think about where we are, which is you look at all of the businesses we're in and we look about our competitive misses in those businesses. And this is where I thought you started to comment a bit about our relative performance versus absolute.
And I'll tell you that the energy and focus we put right now is on relative performance and shared ends. Right now we have the largest commercial cloud with increasing commitments by customers, with new workloads, new TAM opportunities that talk about with customers and our focus is going to be and will be on continuing to take a growing share of that while we continue to focus on our customer success and getting a ton of value out of what we are selling, whether that's the E5 product of Microsoft 365, whether that's Windows 365 to help maybe it's on compute costs and PC costs, whether it's working across the Azure stack.
And so with that opportunity plus in our consumer business, the largest number of active devices we've had in Windows, they're still being used more, being able to focus on edge share and being share and gaming, bringing it to the PC as well as across the mobile, these are the opportunities that we focus on as we think about next year. And so if we feel like and I do that we are well positioned to continue to take share in so many key places, then I say great and we want to be able to focus on investing in AI, which I talked about will increase cost growth but we're committed to making sure we have healthy profitability by keeping operating expenses low.
And so what really this past year has been about but what really what Q3 starts to show is our willingness to pivot to the future to make sure we can keep all those commitments that's not listed. So while I know that's not giving specificity, it is in fact how we think about long-term success is being well positioned in big markets, taking share in those markets, committing to make sure we're going to lead this wave, staying focused on gross margin improvements where we can, some of them will come in AI over time, giving our commitments to the build out, we will charge for those AI capabilities and then ultimately will deliver operating profit.
Yeah, I mean just add to it during these periods of transition, the way I think I've shared all of you know what I want to look at is what's the opportunity set ahead that we have a differentiated play to go after that opportunity set which we believe we have both the opportunity set and dump the dam is bigger and our differentiation at the very start of a cycle we feel we have a good lead and we have differentiated offerings up and down the stack. And so therefore that's the sort of approach we're going to take which is how do we maximize the return of that starting position for you all as shareholders long term that's sort of very look at it and we'll manage the P&L carefully driving operating leverage in a disciplined way but not being shy of investing where we need to invest in order to grab the long-term opportunity and so obviously we use the shared use for us then GM then stopping right like that classic P&L flow but we feel good about opposition.
Alright, many thanks for the answer. Next key, so next question please. Our next question comes from the line of Carl Kiersted with UBS please proceed.
Oh thanks we've had a lot of questions on AI and Azure so maybe just around it out just on the Office 365 business Amy 16% Concentre and TGuy for June not really seeing much seat degradation despite obviously a tight labor market so it's proven to be very resilient. Could you just unpack the sensitivity to that headcount reduction given that across your customer base at least lower rate of hiring just given that this is a enormous seat base business it doesn't seem to be showing up maybe you could just help us understand what's driving that continued seat growth and how durable that is.
Thanks Carl I think I would step back and say we have seen I mean the Office 365 suite but we're oddly the Microsoft 365 suite adds a ton of value for users and so if you think about the users and on the global base we've been able to add users which you continue to see we still have in the front line scenario and an SMB opportunity to continue to grow and in the enterprise where we are a basic productivity tool you know the labor market is still tight in those places and we continue to see customers committed to the value they're getting and so I this is not something that I think our focus has really been on continuing to get healthy renewals continue to add new products that were new where it makes sense to save customers money and increase value and so I think that's the story of the resilience you're seeing and of course we did have a good E5 quarter which we're starting to see and it helps on R2.
Thanks Carl Joe next question please. The next question comes from the one of Rishi Jaluria with RDC please proceed.
下一个问题由RDC的Rishi Jaluria提出,请继续。卡尔乔,谢谢您。
A wonderful hi Seth the hi Amy thanks so much for taking my question and I just continue resilience in the business. I want to get back to the topic of AI but maybe a little bit longer term. How are you thinking about the potential for regulation around AI? Some of the concerns around data and customer privacy and governance and what do you think you can do to maybe well some of those fears that governments and customers and organizations have around that?
Thanks. Yeah thanks Rishi for the question so overall we've taken the approach that we are not waiting for regulation to show up. We are taking an approach where the unintended consequences of any new technology is something that from day one we think about this first class and build into our engineering process all the safeguards. So for example in 2016 is when we put out the AI principles we translated the AI principles into a set of internal standards that then our further translators into an implementation process that then we hold ourselves to internal audit essentially. So that's the framework we have. We have a chief AI officer who is responsible for both thinking of what the standards are and then the people who even help us internally audit our following of the process. And so we feel very, very good in terms of us being able to create trust in the systems we put out there. And so we will obviously engage with any regulation that comes up in any jurisdiction but quite honestly we think that the more there is any form of trust as a differentiated off you know provision in AI I think we stand to gain from that.
All right wonderful thank you so much. Thanks Rishi. So we have time for one last question. And our last question will come from a line of Michael Turing with Wells Fargo. Please proceed.
Hey great thanks appreciate you speaking to me and I want to ask a question on the consolidation play that Microsoft has positioned for. That's something we hear clearly top of mind for IPP decision makers currently.
You have clear plays to across security infrastructure apps and other areas so we would just be great to hear you view on the Microsoft consolidation playbook in the current environment. And if there are certain areas you are particularly focused on or seeing the most traction around. Thank you.
Yeah I mean I was talking maybe you can add. I think we can reference the context of Microsoft 365 and Office 365 but fundamentally what is really focused on is making sure that the customers are able to derive the value out of our offerings. Right whether it's the Microsoft 365 suite value which is significant whether it's E3 or E5 and we want to make sure that they are getting deployed, they are getting used and that's obviously going to lead to our share gains in many cases. Same thing in security that's a play to where the sport is. So it's a good deal. It's a lot from us. And same up and down the stack across Azure.
我是说,也许你可以添加一些内容。我认为我们可以参考 Microsoft 365 和 Office 365 的背景,但基本上我们真正关注的是确保客户能从我们的产品中获得价值。无论是 Microsoft 365 套件的价值,还是 E3 或 E5,我们想确保它们得到部署、使用,这显然会在许多情况下带来我们的份额增长。同样的事情也在安全方面发挥作用。所以这是一个很好的交易。我们在这方面做了很多工作。而且在 Azure 各个层面上也是如此。
Right so when you think about AI, the anatomy of an AI application is not just an AI model. In fact, ChatGPT itself is a great example. ChatGPT for example uses Cosmos DB as a core database. And so therefore we want to make sure that services as they are competitive get used together whether it's the IAS layer or the past layer or the past layer.
And maybe one thing I would add Michael is that I know that question of consolidation but another aspect of that is that something new business process automation work that's going to get done. Whether that's the dynamics workload that we've talked about is also benefit from having the AI services available in Azure, from having the core, Azure capabilities as well. Well actually some front-end stuff that you were buying in Microsoft 365 to pull these loops in a new way. So I think maybe it's not the traditional definition of consolidation but when people look and say what vendor adds a lot of value and has the tools that we need and the importance is already on to be able to do this business process work. I think we have a great, great value and frankly probably leading tools in almost every vertical.
Great, thank you. Michael, I wrapped up the Q&A portion of today's earnings call. Thank you for joining us today and we look forward to speaking with all these folks. Thank you all. Thank you so much.