Markets Weekly November 8, 2025

Hello my friends, today is November 8th and this is markets weekly. So this past week was a pretty down week in the stock market. We had a normal drawdown, but at the end of the day it looks like we tested and downed soft the 50 day moving average in the S&P 500 and we are in a time of the year where there's pretty positive seasonality, so I wouldn't be too negative at the moment.

你好，我的朋友们，今天是11月8日，欢迎收听《市场周刊》。上周股市表现不太好，出现了正常的回调。不过总的来说，我们测试并轻微跌破了标准普尔500指数的50日均线。目前正处于一年中季节性较为积极的时期，所以我现在不会太过悲观。

Now last week would have been one of those big non-farm payrolls week, we'll be got to figure out if the economy continues to create jobs, but because of the government shutdown we got nothing. In fact we didn't get the report before that and if the shutdown continues we might not get the next report either. So we're all kind of flying blind. Now to be clear, sometimes the market cares about economic data, sometimes it doesn't, sometimes good data is bad news, sometimes bad data is good news.

上周本来会是一个重要的非农就业数据发布周，我们本应了解经济是否继续在创造就业机会，但由于政府关门，我们什么数据都没得到。实际上，我们之前的报告也无法获得，如果政府关门继续下去，我们可能连下一次报告也得不到。因此，我们现在有点像是“盲飞”。需要明确的是，有时候市场会关心经济数据，有时候不会；有时候好数据被解读为坏消息，有时候坏数据反而被视为好消息。

But in any case, even though we don't have official data, there is a lot of other data we can look at. So today let's first look at a range of alternative labor market data indicators and see what they're saying. And secondly, let's take a little look at the latest financial stability report where they're basically saying there is an everything bubble.

无论如何，尽管我们没有官方数据，但我们可以查看很多其他数据。因此，今天我们首先来看一些替代性的劳动市场数据指标，看看它们显示了什么。其次，让我们简单看看最新的金融稳定报告，基本上他们在报告中表示存在一个"全面泡沫"。

All right, starting with the labor market data. Now of course the gold standard for labor market data as far as the market is concerned is the non-farm's payroll report, even though of course jobs get revised away sometimes significantly the market usually cares most about that. Now after that though there are a lot of other indicators for jobs market data. The next most popular one is the jobs report put out by ADP.

好的，先从劳动力市场数据开始。当然，就市场而言，非农就业报告被认为是劳动力市场数据的黄金标准。虽然有时候工作数据会被大幅修正，但市场通常最关注这个。除此之外，还有许多其他劳动力市场数据指标。接下来最受欢迎的是 ADP 发布的就业报告。

ADP is a private payroll processing company. So basically if you are a private company, usually you hire someone to do your payroll for you. A big company in that sphere is ADP. So they process a lot of payroll for a lot of companies. So they have a pretty good sample size as to how the economy is doing when it comes to jobs. According to their latest report, the economy created 40,000 jobs last month. Well, that is a decent chunk and it also marks an improvement over the prior two months where we've even had a negative growth.

ADP是一家私营工资处理公司。基本上，如果你是一家私营公司，通常会雇佣专业公司来处理工资，而ADP就是这方面的一个大公司。他们为许多公司处理工资，所以对就业情况的了解很全面。根据他们的最新报告， 上个月经济创造了40,000个就业岗位，这算是一个不错的数字。而且与前两个月的负增长相比，这也标志着一种改善。

So the ADP is basically saying that the economy first off the level of job growth 40,000 not huge but the ADP is saying that at the minimum job market is not getting worse over the past few months. Now after the ADP we also have a smaller payroll processing company called P-X again it's smaller than the ADP but it's still a pretty good sample size. They put out these indexes both on job growth and on wages and according to their data they're saying that the job market.

ADP基本上是在说，首先经济方面，工作增长水平是40,000，这个数字虽然不算大，但ADP强调至少在过去几个月中，劳动力市场没有恶化。在ADP之后，我们还有一家名为P-X的小型工资处理公司，他们的规模虽小于ADP，但样本量仍然相当可观。他们发布了关于工作增长和工资的指数。根据他们的数据，他们表示劳动力市场......（后续可能给出更多信息）。

You know it's slightly deteriorating but not in a major way. So their indexes are showing some decline. Looking at their wage data growth it also seems like wages continue to decelerate. Now I want to be clear if we have the NFP report no one will be caring about this and usually people just laugh at these ADP reports, these private peer reports because they don't have a good relationship with the all-important non-ferrous payroll support but we don't have that so now these smaller or usually less important reports I get more air time.

你知道情况有些恶化，但并不严重。因此，他们的指数显示出一些下滑。观察他们的工资数据增长，似乎工资增速也在放缓。我想明确的是，如果我们有非农就业报告（NFP），没人会在意这些情况，通常大家只是对这些ADP报告和私人同行报告一笑置之，因为它们与非常重要的非农就业支持没有良好关联。但由于我们没有非农就业报告，所以这些较小或通常不那么重要的报告现在获得了更多关注。

But these aren't the only data we get on the labor market. We can also look at other things such as the ISM surveys. Now what the ISM surveys do is that they go and ask companies how this month is compared to the last month and they'll say that it's better or worse or the same. So it's a diffusion index and measures that we're going not the level. So even if everyone is saying that things are better this month and the last month it doesn't really tell you how much better so it's more about a direction.

但这些并不是我们从劳动力市场获得的唯一数据。我们还可以查看其他信息，例如ISM调查。ISM调查的做法是询问公司本月与上月相比情况如何，他们会回答更好、更糟或相同。因此，它是一个扩散指数，衡量的是我们前进的方向，而不是具体水平。所以，即使所有人都说这个月比上个月好，也并不真正告诉你好多少，更注重的是趋势方向。

Now one of the components of these ISM surveys is unemployment and according to these surveys below 50 is your contraction territory. The labor market basically continues as far as hiring goes continues to worsen. It looks like it's not worsening at an accelerating rate but it's not positive. So it's not paying a great picture of this.

这些ISM调查中的一个指标是失业率。根据这些调查，指数低于50表示经济正在收缩。就业市场的招聘情况基本上继续恶化。看起来虽然恶化的程度并未加速，但总体表现并不乐观。因此，这并没有展现出一个理想的经济图景。

Now beyond that we also have other measures that Chicago Fed has a brand new labor market model based measure and what they're saying is that it looks like the labor market has month-over-months, modally, mildly slight degree of deterioration. Again they're missing some of the inputs in this model but I'm guessing that they have ways to make up for it.

除此之外，我们还采用了其他指标。芝加哥联储有一个全新的劳动力市场模型。根据该模型的数据，劳动力市场每个月似乎都出现了轻度的恶化。不过，模型中有一些输入数据缺失，但我猜他们有办法补充这些缺失的数据。

They're just showing basically very slight model based deterioration. Now beyond that we also have unemployment claims. Now usually every week we would get a release from the federal government about state level unemployment claims and people would watch to see whether or not increase in claims suggest the weakening in the labor market. Now even as the federal government shut down the state-based agencies still provide data on this and looking at the aggregation of this it looks like on a state unemployment claims basis.

他们只是在展示一些非常轻微的、基于模型的恶化。除此之外，我们还有失业申请的数据。通常，每周我们都会从联邦政府得到有关各州失业申请的报告，人们会观察申请数量的增加是否意味着劳动力市场的疲软。即使在联邦政府关闭期间，各州的机构仍然提供这些数据。根据这些数据整合来看，从各州失业申请的角度来看，形势似乎是这样的。

It doesn't seem like there's deterioration basically things are as it were beforehand. So that's good. Now the last data point, again there are many alternative data points I'm just pointing to. A number of them that people have been talking about is data based on internal data from the Bank of America. Now Bank of America obviously joined banks so they do have a lot of the data to look at and based on metrics created by their internal data the labor market continues to basically be as it was in the past. So not market deterioration but also not improvement as well.

基本上没有出现恶化，情况似乎和以前一样。这是好事。至于最后一个数据点，还有很多其他数据点，我只是提到其中一个。人们一直在谈论的一些数据是基于美国银行的内部数据。显然，美国银行与其他银行一样，拥有大量的数据可以查看。根据他们内部数据所创建的指标，劳动力市场基本上保持不变。所以既没有恶化，也没有改善。

So taking a step back looking at all these data indicators that we were talking about it looks like the labor market basically is probably unchanged over the past few months we've been under the government shutdown maybe some slight deterioration. So I think that that sounds reasonable and based on that it seems like Fed speakers are leaning more and more hawkish.

综观我们之前讨论的所有数据指标，劳动力市场在过去几个月里基本上没有太大变化，即使在政府停摆期间，可能出现了一些轻微的恶化。我认为这描述得比较合理。基于此，美联储官员似乎愈发倾向于采取强硬立场。

Now even though the market may or may not care about data the Fed definitely does and since we haven't had any market deterioration in the labor market it looks like at the moment that speakers at least there is a growing contingency are pushing back against a December rate cut and the market can still continue to price better than even chance of us cutting a December but it seems like the lack of deterioration in the labor market data is giving some Fed officials some courage to say that we should just wait and see since we're flying blind.

现在，即使市场可能对数据不太在意，美联储肯定对此非常关注。由于目前劳动力市场没有出现恶化，看来至少有越来越多的官员反对在十二月降息。尽管市场仍有可能预测十二月降息的几率大于五成，但由于劳动力市场数据没有恶化，一些美联储官员似乎更有勇气地提出应该持观望态度，因为我们现在对形势并没有充分了解。

Let's just do things slowly. All right the next thing I want to talk about is the latest financial stability report from the Federal Reserve. Now two times a year the Fed puts out this financial stability report basically they're just looking at a range of potential vulnerabilities in the financial system.

我们就慢慢来吧。好，接下来我想谈谈美国联邦储备委员会最新发布的金融稳定报告。美联储每年会发布两次这样的报告，主要是评估金融系统中可能存在的各种风险。

Now one of the obvious ways to look at this is to look at asset price valuations because the thinking is when you have highly valued assets it's more vulnerable to pullbacks which of course could be that could be dangerous. Now the Fed looks at a range of asset prices and basically looking at all of them they're suggesting that asset prices are elevated no surprise to any of you of course.

现在，一个显而易见的方式是查看资产价格的估值。因为一般认为，当资产估值过高时，它们更容易出现回调，这当然可能会带来风险。目前，美联储审视了一系列资产价格，基本上来看，他们认为资产价格偏高，这对你们来说当然不意外。

Now looking at equities and traditionally you would look at something like PE ratio so I will how much our investors paying off for our sheer earnings and looking at PE ratios historically speaking the Fed is finding that that measure is showing elevated valuations. Another way to look at equities of course is to compare equities to fixed income seeing whether or not equity investors are paying a premium relative to fixed income and how much premium they're they're willing to pay.

现在来看股票市场，传统上你会考虑市盈率（PE比率），也就是投资者为我们的每股收益支付了多少。从历史数据来看，联邦储备系统（美联储）发现这个指标显示出较高的估值水平。当然，分析股票的另一个方法是将股票与固定收益产品进行比较，以查看股票投资者是否为相对于固定收益的溢价付费，以及他们愿意支付多少溢价。

Now this equity risk premium of course is model dependent based on the model defend is you seeing they're finding that equities are historically elevated valuation and get I have to remind everyone that just because you're overvalued doesn't necessarily mean that it's going to go down. In fact you could look at this and say that it probably doesn't really matter because things that can get overvalued can get even more overvalued and things that are cheap can become even cheaper.

这段话的意思是：「现在的股权风险溢价显然取决于所使用的模型。根据一些模型，你会发现股票的估值在历史上处于高位。不过，我必须提醒大家，仅仅因为估值过高并不一定意味着股价会下跌。事实上，你可以这么看：这可能并不太重要，因为被高估的东西可能变得更高估，而便宜的东西可能变得更便宜。」

Now looking at other asset classes like corporate bonds and classic way to look at this is the spread so how much extra return investors that are demanding to invest in corporate bonds over treasuries you can see that over bond spreads are pretty tight so again that's suggest that corporate bonds are richly valued. Looking at other asset classes that also looks at things like residential real estate and one way to value residential real estate from a model perspective is to compare house prices to rents.

现在来看其他资产类别，比如企业债券，传统的分析方法是观察利差，即投资者要求的企业债券相对于国债的额外回报。从中可以看到，债券利差相当紧缩，这表明企业债券的估值较高。再看其他资产类别，比如住宅房地产，一种模型上评估住宅房地产的方法是将房价与租金进行比较。

Again based on this measure the Fed is finding that yes home prices are historically elevated of course we already know that and of course looking at another asset class project that was pretty interesting was farmland again farmland has been popular as an alternative asset to invest in and when you value farmland relative to income can get from farmland it also looks like farmland is historically a sort of elevated moving on to commercial real estate the Fed is looking at commercial real estate prices relative to income it can generate relative to rents and it's also seeing that commercial real estate according to this metric is historically elevated.

根据这个指标，美联储发现，家庭房价确实处于历史高位，这一点我们已经知道了。同样，另一个有趣的资产类别是农田。农田作为一个另类投资资产一直很受欢迎，如果将农田的价值与其能产生的收入进行比较，农田的价格也处于历史高位。接下来是商业房地产，美联储正在观察商业房地产的价格和其能产生的收入、租金之间的关系，发现根据这个指标，商业房地产的价格也处于历史高位。

So looking across the broad financial system the Fed is thinking that yes a Fed staff at least is saying that according to conventional valuation metrics asset prices across basically everything are elevated so I suspect that maybe on the margins plays some role in informing their policy decisions whereas if asset prices are so elevated that suggests some degree of lose financial conditions so maybe monetary policy suggests that you know you're not being super restrictive but then also note that the Fed is not going to conduct policy solely based on asset prices if they think the labor market is in danger they will cut and even if that means that asset prices will become even more valued so be it and you can't I mean from their perspective you're cutting rates to help people who are suffering from low employment and if that makes a rich person even richer that's not a good reason to not help people who are suffering in the labor market.

从整个金融体系来看，美联储认为，至少美联储的一些工作人员表示，根据传统的估值指标，几乎所有资产价格都处于高位。因此，我怀疑这可能在某种程度上影响他们的政策决定。因为如果资产价格如此之高，这表明金融条件相对宽松，那么货币政策可能表明自己并不是非常紧缩。但需要注意的是，美联储不会仅仅根据资产价格来制定政策。如果他们认为劳动力市场处于危险之中，他们将会降低利率，即使这会使资产价格变得更高也在所不惜。从他们的角度来看，降低利率是为了帮助那些因为就业不足而苦苦挣扎的人，如果这使得富人变得更加富有，那不是不帮助劳动力市场中受苦人的理由。

So in any case that's what I prepared for today and thanks much to Tony and I'll talk to you next week.

无论如何，这就是我今天准备的内容，非常感谢托尼。我下周再和你聊。