Markets Weekly November 1, 2025

Hello my friends, today is November 1st and this is markets weekly. So this past week, super exciting week in the markets, we had the Fed meeting, there's a video about that on the channel, and of course we had Trump's tour in Asia as well as Max have an earnings. Now meta-disappointed the market was down a lot, but everyone else was okay, Amazon notably up 10% after earnings. So the broad markets I think were overall mixed.

大家好，今天是11月1日，欢迎收看本周的市场周报。上周市场非常激动人心，我们有美联储会议，频道上有相关的视频；还有特朗普的亚洲之行以及Max的财报。此外，Meta的表现让市场失望，因此股价下跌了很多，但其他公司的表现还不错，特别是亚马逊，财报发布后股价上涨了10%。总体来看，我认为广泛市场表现参差不齐。

Today let's talk about three things. First off, let's briefly review what happened with the President's trip in Asia, where we got more details about the big investment deals Japan and Korea had promised the President. Secondly, the World Gold Council released their latest report on the supply and demand factors driving gold prices higher, so let's take a look at that. And lastly, there's brand new research from the Federal Reserve on the impact of tariffs on US manufacturing, and so far it's not positive. But maybe we can find out why.

今天我们来聊三个话题。首先，我们简要回顾一下总统在亚洲之行中发生的事情，特别是日本和韩国承诺给总统的大型投资交易的更多细节。其次，世界黄金协会发布了他们最新的报告，分析推动金价上涨的供需因素，我们来看看这方面的内容。最后，美联储有一项关于关税对美国制造业影响的新研究，目前来看结果并不乐观，但也许我们可以找出原因。

Alright, starting with the President's trip in Asia. So let's level a little bit. Over the past few months, again a lot of trade headlines, the President saw to renegotiate the US's trade relationships with the world. Now, what we found out after all this excitement was that the US, for the most part, has much more leverage over other countries than previously thought. In particular, countries like Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, European Union, need the US for defense, and also need access to US markets.

好的，首先谈谈总统在亚洲的访问。简单来说，最近几个月有很多关于贸易的新闻，总统致力于重新谈判美国与世界的贸易关系。经过这些事件后，我们发现美国在很大程度上比之前认为的对其他国家拥有更多的影响力。特别是像日本、韩国、台湾和欧盟这样的国家，既需要依靠美国的防御支持，也需要进入美国市场。

So the US was able to extract significant concessions from them. In the case of Japan and Korea, in order to buy down their tariffs, they were willing to make huge investment into the United States. The way that I look at this is that over the past few decades, these countries have been making a whole lot of money off global trade, accumulating large foreign exchange surpluses, and the President is basically taking all that back by forcing them to invest in the US. Now, the one exception to know this, of course, is China, which we found out that Chinese are very strong.

因此，美国能够从他们那里获得重大让步。在日本和韩国的例子中，为了降低关税，他们愿意对美国进行大量投资。我认为，这其实是这些国家在过去几十年中通过全球贸易赚取了大量资金，积累了巨额外汇储备，而总统基本上是通过迫使他们在美国投资来收回这些利益。不过，唯一的例外是中国，因为我们发现中国的实力非常强大。

They have something where Earths that the US absolutely needs, and of course they have a much higher paying tolerance. So, in a sense, China is probably stronger than the US when it comes to the trade deal. So, over and over again, we have what appears to be the White House reaching out to China, well, doing something strong, and then reaching out to China try to climb down, and that seemed to happen this time as well.

他们有一些美国绝对需要的资源，当然他们的承受能力也更强。所以，从某种意义上来说，中国在贸易谈判中可能比美国更有优势。因此，我们一次又一次看到白宫对中国采取强硬措施，然后又试图缓和局势，而这次似乎也不例外。

Now, the reaction the President received in Asia was, of course, mixed. On the one hand, we have the President's meeting with the new Prime Minister of Japan. Let's take a look. The first female Prime Minister in the history of Japan, Madam Prime Minister. Looks like she really likes it, right? They're having a good time. So, we have a bit more detail about Japan's $550 billion commitment to invest in the US.

现在，总统在亚洲的反应当然是有好有坏。一方面，我们来看一下总统与日本新首相的会面。这是日本历史上第一位女性首相，看起来她真的很享受这个过程，对吧？他们相处得很愉快。此外，我们还得到了关于日本承诺向美国投资5500亿美元的更多细节。

According to the memorandum, overview released on the White House's website, about 330 billion of that will be in US power infrastructure. So, nuclear reactors, power substations, turbines, and so forth, and it's going to be in cooperation with US companies. So, what this looks like to me is that the US is trying to get, trying to use Japan's help to build up US expertise and is also concerned about the electricity demands of AI going forward.

根据白宫网站发布的备忘录概览，其中大约3300亿美元将用于美国的电力基础设施。这包括核反应堆、电力变电站、涡轮机等等，并且会与美国公司合作进行。从我看来，这表明美国试图利用日本的帮助来提升自身的专业技术，同时也关注未来人工智能对电力的需求。

So, in a sense, they're trying to, basically, with Japan's help, rebuild some of the US's infrastructure. So, that seems like a really good idea. When it comes to South Korea, also very good reception. The South Korean President gave the President a gold crown, literally a gold crown, and promised to make $350 billion in investments in the US, largely in technology. However, Japan, South Korea does not have as much cash as Japan. So, they're on a schedule, were they saying they're going to disperse 20 billion a year?

从某种意义上说，他们基本上是想借助日本的帮助来重建美国的一些基础设施。这看起来确实是个好主意。至于韩国，反应也非常好。韩国总统送给美国总统一顶金冠，字面意义上的金冠，并承诺将在美国投资3500亿美元，主要集中在科技领域。不过，韩国的资金没有日本那么多。所以他们有一个计划表，说他们每年会拨出200亿美元。

It's going to take some time, but of course, better than nothing. Now, there's some commentary that maybe this is all fake and so forth, but, you know, Japan in particular, usually a very good reliable and honest ally, so don't see why they wouldn't follow through on their commitment, at least through the Trump administration, same for South Korea. Now, when it comes to China, I think the President got a little bit different reception.

这会需要一些时间，但总比什么都没有好。现在，有一些评论认为这可能都是假的等等，不过，你知道的，日本通常是一个非常可靠和诚实的盟友，所以我不认为他们不会履行他们的承诺，至少在特朗普政府期间是这样，韩国也是如此。至于中国，我认为总统受到的待遇有些不同。

Let's take a look. And we're going to have a very successful meeting. Have no doubt. But he's a very tough negotiator. That's not good. We know each other well. So, seems like the President is overjoyed to meet Uncle Xi, but you know, Uncle Xi is like, yeah, whatever. And this kind of shows in what actually happened in the negotiations. At the end of the day, the President lowered tariffs on China by 10%, essentially reducing the fentanyl tariffs on China, and exchange got a commitment to purchase more soybeans and to look more into the production of fentanyl precursors.

让我们来看一下。我们将会有一次非常成功的会晤，无需怀疑。只是他是一位很强硬的谈判者，这不太好。我们彼此非常了解。所以，看起来总统很高兴见到习叔叔，但你知道，习叔叔好像不太在意。这种态度在实际谈判中也有所体现。最终，总统一方面把对中国的关税降低了10%，基本上减少了对中国芬太尼的关税，另一方面换来了中国承诺购买更多的大豆，并更加关注芬太尼前体的生产。

And a one-year pause in the implementation of rare earth, the new rare earth regime, and that they could potentially use the control of supply for earths to the world. So overall, it seems like both countries got to extend this truth. There's stuff about port fees and so forth, but you know, you'll see it seems to me that with a 10% reduction in tariffs, it was of course the Chinese that had the stronger negotiating hand and walked away with probably a better deal. But hey, the markets liked it. We front-run that over throughout the week. And if you look at soybean futures, the soybean farmers of America are rejoicing because now they have someone to buy their soybeans. So things seems to have worked out for, to some extent, everyone. And I think that probably concludes all this trade negotiations for some time.

在稀土实施暂停一年的情况下，新稀土制度也暂停一年，他们可能会利用对全球稀土供应的控制。所以总体来看，两个国家都得以延长这一互惠关系。还有关于港口收费等的内容，不过你知道的，在关税减少10%的情况下，显然是中国在谈判中占据更强势的地位，并可能获得了更好的交易。但市场对此表示欢迎，我们整个星期都在提前布局。如果你看看大豆期货，美国的大豆种植者们感到欣喜，因为现在他们找到了大豆的买家。所以，某种程度上，事情对每个人来说都算是有了好的结果。我认为这可能使得这段时间的贸易谈判告一段落。

So let's move on to the next topic, which of course is the latest report from the World Gold Council. Now, this past year, gold has been one of the top performing assets, did have a notable tumble the past few weeks, which we've been talking about. But I think it's interesting that the World Gold Council here has this report breaking down more concretely the supply and demand factors that have been driving gold prices up almost 40% this year. Now, obviously, though, just to be clear, the biggest driver is increased demand in investments. But let's go over the few of them listed here.

那么，让我们继续下一个话题，也就是来自世界黄金协会的最新报告。今年以来，黄金一直是表现最好的资产之一，不过过去几周确实出现了一些显著的下跌，这点我们已经讨论过了。不过，我觉得有趣的是，世界黄金协会在这份报告中更具体地分析了推动黄金价格上涨近40%的供需因素。当然，需要明确的是，最大推动力是投资需求的增加。接下来，让我们来看看报告中列出的一些因素。

Now, first off, what are the basic demand drivers of gold? Most obvious one, of course, is jury. Before we had all this, you know, de-dollarization, debatement, all that stuff, gold for most people is something that they use in jury. Now, jury, of course, is going to be more price sensitive. So over the past year, as gold prices have surged, we see jury demand falling. So that's no surprise, right? The things are more expensive. You buy less of it. Basically, it seems like demand for jury has been crowded out by other demands. The biggest driver in demand over the past year has been in investments. An investment demand in gold comes in two forms. One is through ETFs. So if you buy the GLD ETF, for example, the ETF actually goes and buys physical gold. So it's not purely paper. The second source of demand is, of course, just more traditional coins and bullion.

首先，什么是黄金的基本需求驱动因素？最明显的当然是珠宝。在去美元化、货币贬值等现象出现之前，对大多数人来说，黄金是一种用于制作珠宝的材料。当然，珠宝的需求对价格非常敏感。所以在过去一年里，随着黄金价格飙升，珠宝需求有所下降。这并不奇怪，对吧？东西变得更贵了，自然就买得少了。基本上，珠宝的需求似乎被其他需求所挤压。过去一年最大的需求驱动因素来自投资。对黄金的投资需求主要有两种形式。其一是通过交易所交易基金（ETF）。比如，你买入GLD ETF，该基金实际上会购买实物黄金，所以这不完全是纸面投资。第二种需求来源则是传统的金币和金条。

Now, if you look at ETF demand for gold, it's been absolutely surging. So ETFs, gold ETFs are global. It's not just GLD. There's actually few in the West. And there's also a gold ETFs abroad as well. And that source has been a very big driver in the gold price going forward. But if you look at more just physical demand, coin and bullion, it's also held up pretty well as well. Now, a second offence side of narrative for gold demand is central bank buying. Now, we've all seen many charts where people say that central bank holdings of gold have actually grown more than surgeries. But that's super, super mist, misleading because yes, the central banks are buying more gold. But the reason that their gold holdings look bigger in dollar terms has largely been because of price appreciation.

现在，如果你查看黄金的ETF需求，会发现需求正在大幅增加。全球范围内都有黄金ETF，不仅仅是GLD。在西方国家有几种黄金ETF，国外也有。因此，这成为推动未来黄金价格的一个重要因素。而如果我们只看实物需求，比如金币和金条，它们的需求也保持得相当不错。 另一方面，黄金需求的另一个重要因素是各国央行的购买。我们都见过许多图表显示，央行持有的黄金比外科手术增长得还多。但这种说法非常误导，因为虽然央行确实在增加黄金购买，但其黄金持有量看起来以美元计增加较多，主要是因为价格的上涨。

So central banks are buying gold. Yes, but that huge growth in their gold holdings largely through price appreciation. Now, looking at this chart from the World Gold Council, what's interesting is that gold demanded by central banks is actually lower this year than the last year. To be clear, it's still historically pretty elevated, but it is lower this year than compared to last year. They have a very interesting chart finding which central banks have the largest demand for gold. And surprising to me, it's actually the Polish central bank that has the most demand for gold this year. So pretty interesting. Grinco, you'd think it would be someone like China, but actually it's not looking moving over to the supply of gold.

所以，央行们正在购买黄金。是的，但它们黄金持有量的大幅增长主要是由于价格的升值。现在，看看世界黄金协会的这张图表，有意思的是，央行对黄金的需求实际上比去年还低。需要明确的是，这一需求仍然处于历史高位，但与去年相比，今年确实有所下降。图表中还发现了哪些央行对黄金的需求最大。令我意外的是，今年对黄金需求最大的是波兰央行。这很有趣。Grinco，本以为会是像中国这样的国家，但实际上并不是。接下来，让我们看看黄金的供应情况。

It looks like the supply from mines has been pretty elevated over the past few years. But of course, mining supply of gold is full of randomness, you have accidents and so forth. And of course, you do have some mines that continue to come online. What I find interesting about this report though is its report on the supply of recycled gold or scrap gold. So one of the things that I remember back in the last gold rush after the rate of financial crises is that when the gold price became elevated, you had all these businesses sprouting out, sprouting out across the country saying we buy gold. And what was happening was that the general public was seeing that gold prices have become so elevated. They were rushing to sell their gold like their jewelry or their family heirlooms or whatnot to cash out.

看起来，过去几年矿产供应一直相当高。但当然，金矿的供应总是充满了不确定性，比如事故等等。而且确实有一些矿山在继续上线。不过，我觉得这份报告中有趣的是它对回收黄金或废旧黄金供应的报告。让我想起上一次金融危机之后的黄金热潮，当时黄金价格上涨很多，全国各地都出现了“我们收购黄金”的商家。当时的情况是，公众看到金价上涨了许多，纷纷抢着出售黄金，比如他们的珠宝或家庭传家宝等，以便兑换现金。

Of course, what's implicit in that, of course, is that they're thinking that the gold prices had gone too high and they want to capture some cash. So so far though, even as gold prices remain elevated, the supply of recycled gold hasn't really jumped. So the report seemed to view that as some potential that maybe the retail public thinks that the gold price could still go higher because if you thought it wouldn't go any higher, higher would go and you would be selling your own gold. So so far looking at the price chart, we do seem to be consolidating. And so let's see what happens. Usually it takes a bit more time after we've had such a big tumble.

当然，这其中隐含的意思是，他们认为金价已经涨得太高，所以想转换成现金。然而，到目前为止，即便金价仍然偏高，回收黄金的供应量并没有明显增加。因此，报告似乎认为，这可能表明普通消费者认为金价还有上涨空间。因为如果大家认为金价不会再涨，就会开始卖掉自己的黄金。从目前的价格走势图来看，我们似乎处于整合阶段。所以，让我们看看接下来会发生什么。通常，在经历这样的大幅下跌后，需要更多的时间来调整。

All right, the last thing I want to talk about is this interesting research from the Federal Reserve about the presence. The impact of the presence tariffs on US manufacturing. So the big picture of course is that the person would like to revitalize US manufacturing. There's some very good reasons for that. National security, of course, can't be relied upon other people for for lots of our goods. But also it creates jobs, right? So that's some there's been a lot of loss of blue collar jobs in the US and the president would like to help those people out.

好的，最后我想谈谈关于美联储这项有趣的研究：关于关税对美国制造业的影响。整体来看，总统希望振兴美国制造业，这有几个非常好的理由。首先是国家安全，当然，我们不能过度依赖其他国家来供应我们的商品。除此之外，这还可以创造就业机会。美国已经失去了大量的蓝领工作，总统希望能够帮助这些人。

The way that he's doing this, one, it's multi-pronged imposing tariffs to make imports more expensive, a lot of subsidies through the OBBA. And of course, the dollar has been weakening. So it's a it's a complicated puzzle and they're trying to solve it. So how are they doing so far? Well, first off, we should be clear. The likelihood of a company looking at all this policy change and immediately building a new factory is not high because when you build a factory, it takes a lot of money, it takes many years.

他采取的方法是多方面的。首先，通过加征关税使进口商品变得更昂贵，并通过OBBA提供大量补贴。当然，美元也在贬值。因此，这就像一个复杂的难题，他们正在努力解决。那么，他们目前执行得如何呢？首先，我们需要明确的是，企业在看到所有这些政策变化后，立刻开始建新工厂的可能性不高，因为建造工厂需要投入大量资金，并需要很多年时间。

And as we all know, there's not a lot of policy certainty. Maybe we get a new president in a few years, maybe Zora Mandame or AOC comes online, becomes the president and then we take all these tariffs out. Then you know, your multi-billion dollar factory that was built with the view that tariffs will make domestic production attractive just doesn't work anymore. But what tariffs could immediately impact, though, is existing capacity. That is to say that tariffs go up and immediately imports become more expensive relative to domestic we produce stuff.

我们都知道，目前的政策并不明朗。也许几年后，我们会迎来一位新总统，比如佐拉·曼达梅或亚历山德里亚·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯上任，取消所有的关税。这样一来，你那座因为关税让国内生产变得有吸引力而投资建造的数十亿美元的工厂可能就不再有用了。不过，关税可以立即影响的是现有的生产能力。也就是说，如果关税上调，进口商品立即会变得比我们国内生产的产品更贵。

And so there's a good argument that factories that are already in the US could become busier. And there are some stories and major publications about this. But the data that the Federal Reserve presents shows a slightly different picture. First off, that they find is that manufacturing capacity in the US is a bit low. So they definitely have a lot of excess capacity, whereas if there was a surge in demand, these factories could definitely wrap up.

因此，有一个很好的论点认为，美国现有的工厂可能会变得更加繁忙。有一些主要出版物也报道了这样的情况。然而，美联储提供的数据则显示出稍微不同的情况。首先，他们发现美国的制造业产能有些不足。因此，美国的工厂确实有很多备用产能，如果需求激增，这些工厂确实可以迅速增加产量。

Now, the question is that are these manufacturing is a very broad field and the president's protections extend unevenly, right? The huge protections in aluminum, in steel and so forth, but other other fact, other factor, other fields not as protected. So what the researchers did is according to industry code, they tried to figure out a measure of how protected this industry is and then find whether or not there's a relationship between changes in industrial capacity and changes in how protected the industry is.

现在的问题是，制造业是一个非常广泛的领域，而总统的保护措施覆盖得并不均匀。比如说，铝和钢铁行业获得了很大的保护，但其他领域则没那么多保护。因此，研究人员根据行业代码，试图找出一个衡量标准来评估一个行业受到保护的程度，然后探索工业产能的变化与行业受保护程度的变化之间是否存在关系。

The thinking was that over the past few months as protection for one industry increases, maybe there will be an increase in their, oh, so increase in their factory utilization. So they'd have less capacity, right? Because they're utilizing it more. Now, they run this regression and what they find is according to this chart, there is no relationship. So it doesn't seem like these tariffs have been helping existing factories become busier.

过去几个月，随着对某个行业的保护增加，人们认为他们工厂的设施使用率可能会提高。因此，他们的剩余生产能力会减少，因为使用率提高了。然而，当他们进行回归分析时，发现根据这个图表显示，这两者之间没有关系。也就是说，这些关税似乎并没有帮助现有工厂变得更繁忙。

Well, that's kind of a head scratcher, right? Immediately, a lot of imports become more expensive. Why haven't these domestic manufacturers become a little bit busier in super protected sectors of the market? So they take a step forward and they look at a survey that asks these companies, why is your factory utilization relatively low? And this is what they found. It's actually super interesting.

嗯，这真是让人困惑，不是吗？许多进口商品立刻变得更贵了。但是，在市场受到高度保护的领域，这些国内制造商怎么没有变得更忙呢？于是，他们进一步调查了一份调查报告，该报告问了这些公司：为什么你们的工厂利用率相对较低？他们的发现真的非常有趣。

Now, according to what they found is that the more protected industries actually have more oftenally, site and lack of demand. So what that means is that yes, the tariffs are probably helping in the sense that imports are becoming more expensive, but there's just not a lot of demand and that speaks to broader economic weakness, which anecdotally many of us hear. The second interesting finding is that these protected industries also have trouble finding qualified people.

根据他们的发现，更受保护的行业实际上更频繁地面临订单不足和需求缺乏的问题。这意味着关税可能在某种程度上确实起到了一定的作用，使进口商品变得更贵，但需求总体上不高，这反映出更广泛的经济疲软，这一点许多人也有所耳闻。第二个有趣的发现是，这些受到保护的行业在寻找合格人才方面也面临困难。

Maybe there's not enough people who are trained in these now specialized trades or something like that, but that seems to be another reason why they have trouble ramping up capacity. So it's both demand and a lack of human capital. So it's not clear that the tariffs aren't helping, but it could be just the broader economic weakness is outweighing it.

也许现在在这些专业技术行业中受过训练的人太少了，这可能是他们难以提高产能的另一个原因。所以问题既在于需求，也在于人力资本的缺乏。因此，目前还不清楚关税是否有帮助，但也可能是整体经济疲软的影响更大。

And the researchers are also careful to point out that these shifts take time. Maybe the people who are importing abroad, they need some time to readjust their supply chains, find domestic resources, and maybe it just takes some time for people to gear up in production. So we've only been doing this, this new tariff regime for some time and only recently have become to have more stability in tariffs.

研究人员也谨慎地指出，这些变化需要时间。或许正在进行海外进口的人需要一些时间来调整他们的供应链，寻找国内资源，而生产方面的人可能也需要时间来适应。因此，我们实施新的关税政策的时间还不长，仅仅最近关税才趋于稳定。

So this is something that we can continue to watch. Again, according to common sense, you'd think that if imports become more expensive, domestically produce goods become more attractive on the margin. So it doesn't seem like that would hurt. All right, so that's all I prepared for today. Thanks so much for tuning in. I'll talk to you guys next week.

所以这是我们可以继续观察的事情。根据常识，你会认为如果进口商品变得更贵，本地生产的商品在一定程度上会更有吸引力。因此，看起来这不会有什么坏处。好了，这就是我今天准备的全部内容。非常感谢您的收听。我下周再和大家聊。