Live: Tesla Q3 Earnings Call 2025 (TSLA)
发布时间 2025-10-22 23:24:13 来源
different materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those mentioned in our most recent filings with the SEC. We are shareholders to read our definitive proxy statement, which contains important information about the matters we voted on at the 2025 annual meeting. During the question and answer portion of today's call, please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. Please use the raise hand button to join the question queue. Before we jump into Q&A, Elon has some opening remarks. Elon? Thank you. We're at a critical infection point for Tesla and our strategy going forward as we bring AI into the real world. I think it's important to emphasize that Tesla really is the leader in real world AI. No one can do what we can do with real world AI. I have pretty good insight into AI in general. I think that Tesla has the highest intelligence density of any AI out there in the car and that is only going to get better.
由于多种风险和不确定性，包括我们最近向美国证券交易委员会提交的文件中提到的那些因素，情况可能会有实质性的不同。我们建议股东阅读我们的正式委托书声明，其中包含有关我们在2025年年度会议上投票事项的重要信息。在今天会议的问答环节，请将问题限制为一个主问题和一个跟进问题。请使用“举手”按钮加入提问队列。在进入问答环节之前，Elon 会发表一些开场讲话。Elon？谢谢。目前，特斯拉正处于一个关键的转折点，我们把人工智能带入现实世界。需要强调的是，特斯拉确实是现实世界人工智能的领导者。没有人能像我们这样运用现实世界的人工智能。我对人工智能总体上有相当好的了解。我认为特斯拉在汽车中的人工智能具有最高的智能密度，并且这只会变得更好。
We're really just the beginning of scaling quite massively full self-driving and robotaxi and fundamentally changing the nature of transport. I think people just don't quite appreciate the degree to which this will take off. Honestly, it's going to be like a shock wave. The cars roll out there. There are millions of cars out there that, with a software update, become full self-driving cars. We're making a couple of million a year. In fact, with what we see now as a clarity on achieving full self-driving, unsupervised full self-driving, I should say, I feel confident in expanding Tesla's production. That is our intent to expand as quickly as we can. Our future production. I was ready to do that until we had clarity on unsupervised full self-driving. At this point, I feel like we've got clarity. It makes sense to expand production as fast as we can.
我们实际上正处于大规模推广完全自动驾驶和机器人出租车的起步阶段，这将从根本上改变交通方式。我认为人们还未充分意识到这一变化将有多迅猛。坦白说，这将像一场冲击波。那些汽车将会投入市场，而通过软件更新，数百万辆汽车将变成完全自动驾驶汽车。我们每年生产几百万辆。事实上，现在随着我们对实现完全自动驾驶，特别是无人监督的完全自动驾驶的理解渐趋明朗，我对扩大特斯拉的生产感到很有信心。我们的意图是尽可能快速地扩张生产。在无人监督的全自动驾驶变得明确之前，我是准备好这么做的。此刻，我觉得我们已经清楚地看到了，这让快速扩大生产变得非常有意义。
We're also making a huge impact on the energy sector with battery storage, both power wall and especially with the MegaPack. We are dramatically improving the ability to generate more energy from the grid. Let me sort of look a little bit about that. If you look at total US energy capability, for example, there's roughly a terawatt of continuous power available in the US. But the average usage over a twenty-fire cycle is only half a terawatt because of the big difference between day and night usage. If you buffer the energy with batteries, you can effectively double the energy output in the US, just with batteries pulling no incremental power plants. It's very difficult to build power plants. They take a long time. There's a lot of permitting, and it's not an industry that's used to moving fast.
我们也在通过电池存储技术对能源行业产生巨大影响，包括储能电墙，特别是MegaPack。我们显著提高了从电网获取更多能源的能力。让我进一步解释一下。以美国的整体能源能力为例，美国大约有1太瓦的连续可用电力。但在一个24小时周期内的平均用电量只有0.5太瓦，因为日间和夜间的用电量差异很大。如果用电池来储存能量，就可以在不增加额外发电厂的情况下，有效地将美国的能量输出翻倍。建造发电厂非常困难，不仅耗时长，而且需要很多许可，而且这一行业并不习惯快速运作。
We see the potential, therefore, Tesla battery packs to greatly improve the energy output per year for any given grid, US or otherwise. We're also on the cost of something really tremendous with Optimus, which I think is likely to be, or has potential to be, the biggest product of all time. It's a difficult project, and it's worth noting that it's not like it's just automatic. I'm going to wear any robot program by Ford or GM or in a barriose car companies. People like, I think, maybe think of Tesla as a car company, we mostly make cars and battery packs. It's not just an obvious full-of-a-log thing to make Optimus, but we do have the ingredients of real-world AI and exceptional electrical and mechanical engineering capabilities and the ability to scale production, which I don't think anyone else has all of those ingredients.
我们看到了特斯拉电池组在极大提高任何电网（无论是美国还是其他国家）年能量输出方面的潜力。此外，我们在Optimus项目上也取得了重大进展，我认为它有可能成为有史以来最大的产品。这是一个具有挑战性的项目，需要注意的是，这并不是一个自动化的简单过程。我们不是像福特或通用汽车等汽车公司或其他汽车公司那样来开展机器人项目。有人可能认为特斯拉只是一个汽车公司，因为我们主要生产汽车和电池组。打造Optimus并不是一个显而易见的事情，但我们拥有真实世界的人工智能、卓越的电气和机械工程能力以及生产规模化的能力，这是其他公司无法同时具备的要素。
With version 14 of self-driving, which people, you can see, the reactions of people online, the quite amazes, and actually anyone in the US can get a version 14. If they just go and select, I want the advanced software in their car. If you're listening right now and you'd like to try it out, just go in settings and say, I want the advanced software, and you will get version 14. On the MegaPack front, we unveiled MegaBlock, MegaPack 3. We also have exciting plans for MegaPack 4. MegaPack 4 will incorporate a lot of what is normally in a sub-station and be able to output at probably 35 kV directly. This greatly improves our ability to deploy MegaPack because it's not dependent on building a sub-station of 335 kV for MegaPack 4. That's the engineering priority for MegaPack.
第14版自动驾驶推出后，网络上的人们反应让人惊讶，而事实上，美国的任何人都可以获得第14版。他们只需在车内设置中选择"我想要高级软件"即可。如果你正在收听，并且想尝试一下，只需进入设置，选择"我想要高级软件"，就可以获得第14版。在MegaPack方面，我们推出了MegaBlock和MegaPack 3。同时，我们对MegaPack 4也有激动人心的计划。MegaPack 4将整合很多变电站中的常规功能，可能直接输出35千伏。这大大提高了我们部署MegaPack的能力，因为MegaPack 4不依赖于建造一个335千伏的变电站。这是MegaPack的工程重点。
We look forward to unveiling Optimus V3, probably in Q1. I think it'll be ready for to show off. That is going to be quite remarkable. If you won't even seem like a robot, it will seem like a person in a robot suit, which is kind of how we started off with Optimus. It will seem so real that you'll need to poke it, I think, to believe that it's actually a robot. The real-world intelligence we've developed for the car, most of that transfers to Optimus. It's a very good sorting point.
我们期待在第一季度展示Optimus V3，我认为它将准备好亮相。这将是相当惊人的。如果你不仔细看，你甚至不会觉得它像一个机器人，而更像是穿着机器人衣服的人，这实际上也是我们开发Optimus的初衷。它看起来如此真实，以至于你可能会想戳一下它，好相信它确实是个机器人。我们在汽车上开发的真实世界智能，大部分可以应用到Optimus上。这是一个很好的起点。
In conclusion, we're excited about the updated mission of Tesla, which is sustainable abundance. So going beyond sustainable energy to say sustainable abundance is the mission where we believe with Optimus and self-driving that you can actually create a world where there is no poverty, where everyone has access to the finest medical care. Optimus will be an incredible surgeon, for example. I imagine everyone had access to an incredible surgeon. Of course, we make sure Optimus is safe and everything, but I do think we're headed for a world of sustainable abundance, and I'm excited to work with Tesla teams to make that happen.
总之，我们对特斯拉更新后的使命——可持续繁荣，感到非常兴奋。不仅是可持续能源，而是要实现可持续的繁荣，我们相信通过Optimus机器人和自动驾驶技术，可以创造一个没有贫困的世界，每个人都能获得最优质的医疗服务。比方说，Optimus将成为一位出色的外科医生，想象一下每个人都能享受到顶级外科医生的服务。当然，我们会确保Optimus的安全性等方面都得到保障，但我确实认为我们正在迈向一个可持续繁荣的世界，并且我很高兴能与特斯拉的团队一起努力实现这一目标。
Great. Thank you very much, Elon. VEBUB also has some opening remarks. Thanks, Thomas. Q3 was a special quarter at multiple levels. We set new records, not just for deliveries and deployments, but also around a range of financial metrics from total revenues, energy gross profit, energy margins to fresh free cash flow. This was the result of continued confidence of our customers in our products and the relentless efforts by the Tesla team.
好的，非常感谢你，Elon。VEBUB也有一些开场致辞。谢谢你，Thomas。第三季度在多个层面上都很特别。我们不仅在交付和部署方面创造了新纪录，还在一些财务指标上也创下了新高，包括总收入、能源毛利润、能源利润率以及新的自由现金流。这是由于我们的客户对产品的持续信任，以及特斯拉团队的不懈努力。
The strength and deliveries was attributed to strong performance across all regions. Greater China and APEC were up sequentially 33 and 29% respectively. North America was up 28% while Mea was up 25%. The pace in deliveries was the function of continued excitement around the new model Y. We had previously talked about 2025 being the year of the Y, and have since delivered on that promise with the new model Y released in Q1, followed by model Y, Longville Base, end performance, and more recently standard Y in North America and Mea.
由于所有地区的强劲表现，公司的实力和交货量得到了提升。大中华区和亚太地区的交货量分别环比增长了33%和29%。北美地区增长了28%，而中东和非洲地区增长了25%。交货速度的提升主要得益于市场对新款Y车型的持续热情。我们曾经提到2025年将是"Y车型之年"，现在已经兑现了这一承诺：新款Y车型在第一季度推出，之后还推出了Longville Base、终极性能版以及最近在北美和中东非洲地区推出的标准Y。
We're now operating a robot taxi in two markets, Austin and most various cities. We've already expanded our coverage area in Austin, free time since the initial launch and our own pace to continue expanding further. Unlike our competitors, our robot taxi fleet blends in the markets we operate in since they don't have extra sensors sets, or peripherals which make them stick out. This is an underappreciated aspect of our current vehicle offerings, which are all designed for autonomous driving.
我们现在在两个市场运营机器人出租车：奥斯汀和其他多个城市。自最初推出以来，我们已经在奥斯汀扩大了服务范围，并将继续以自己的节奏进一步扩展。与竞争对手不同的是，我们的机器人出租车车队能很好地融入我们运营的市场，因为它们没有额外的传感器或外围设备，不会显得突兀。这是我们目前车辆产品一个被低估的优点，它们全部经过专门设计以实现自动驾驶。
We feel that as people experience the supervised FSD at scale, the demand for our vehicles, like Elon said, would increase significantly. On the FSD adoption front, we've continued to see decent progress. However, note that total paid FSD customer base is still small around 12% of our current fleet. We're moving, we're working with regulators in places like China and Mea to obtain approval so that we can get FSD in those regions as well.
我们认为，随着越来越多的人在大规模体验受监管的全自动驾驶（FSD），正如伊隆所说，我们的车辆需求将显著增加。在FSD的采用方面，我们确实看到了一些不错的进展。然而，请注意，目前我们付费的FSD用户群仍然很小，仅占我们现有车队的约12%。我们正积极在中国和中东等地与监管机构合作，争取批准，以便在这些地区也能推出FSD。
Now, covering a little bit on the financial side, automotive revenues increase 29% sequentially in line with the growth and deliveries. While regulatory credits declined sequentially, we entered into new contracts and continued delivery on previously entered contracts. Our automotive margins, excluding credits, increased marginally from 15% to 15.4, which was attributed to improvements in material cost and better fixed cost absorption due to higher volumes.
现在，在财务方面稍作说明：汽车收入环比增长了29%，这与增长和交付量相符。尽管监管积分环比有所下降，我们签署了新的合同，并继续履行之前签订的合同。我们的汽车利润率（不包括积分）从15%略微增加到15.4%，这得益于材料成本的改善以及由于产量增加而导致的固定成本吸收更好。
The energy storage business continued to deliver with record deployments, growth profit and margins. As discussed before, this business has a bigger impact from tariffs as measured by percentage of cogs, since currently all sales procured are from China, while we're still working on other alternatives. However, as the ramp of mega-factually Shanghai is happening, this is helping us avoid tariffs because we are using this factory to supply the non-US demand.
能源存储业务继续实现创纪录的部署、增长的利润和利润率。正如之前所讨论的，这个业务受到关税影响较大，因为目前我们所有销售的产品都来自中国，同时我们也在探索其他替代方案。然而，由于上海超级工厂的扩建，这有助于我们避免关税，因为我们使用这家工厂来满足非美国地区的需求。
Like Elon said, you know, grid-scale storage, the only way we can get to electricity fastest is by using storage. The other thing to keep in mind is we are seeing headwinds in this business given the increase in competition and tariffs. The total tariff impacts for Q3 for both businesses was in excess of 400 million, generally split evenly between them.
就像埃隆说的那样，要快速改善电力供应，电网级储能是唯一的途径。同时，我们也要注意到这个行业面临的一些阻力，比如日益激烈的竞争和关税。第三季度，由于这两方面的原因，两个业务都受到了超过4亿美元的关税影响，影响大致平摊到两者之间。
Services and other demonstrated a marked improvement sequentially. This was a function of improvements primarily in our insurance and service center businesses. Note that while small, our robot taxi costs are included within services and other, along with our other businesses like paid supercharging, used car, parts and merchandise sales, etc. Our operating expenses increase sequentially. The largest increase included in restructuring in other related to certain actions undertaken to reduce cost and improve efficiency to convergence of our AI chip design efforts.
服务和其他业务环节表现出显著的逐步改善。这主要得益于我们保险和服务中心业务的提升。请注意，尽管规模较小，但我们的机器人出租车成本也包含在服务和其他业务中，以及其他业务例如付费超级充电、二手车、零件和商品销售等。我们的运营费用逐步增加。此次增加主要与某些旨在降低成本和提高效率的重组措施有关，这些措施聚焦于我们AI芯片设计工作的整合。
Additionally, we incurred legal expenses related to proceedings in certain legal cases, as well as incremental cost incurred in preparation for our shareholder meeting. Such costs are recorded within S&A. Further, our employee related spend is increasing, especially in R&D, as we have recently granted various performance-based equity awards to employees working on AI initiatives, and therefore such spend will continue to increase going forward. Our other income decrease sequentially, primarily from market adjustments on BTC holdings, which was much smaller gained of 80 million in Q3 versus 284 million in Q2, with the rest of the movement attributable to FX movements in the quarter. Our free cash flow for the quarter was approximately 4 billion, which was yet another record.
另外，我们还产生了与某些法律案件相关的法律费用，以及为股东大会做准备所增加的成本。这些费用记录在销售与行政开支中。此外，我们在员工相关支出上有所增加，特别是在研发方面，因为最近我们向从事人工智能项目的员工授予了各种基于绩效的股权奖励，因此这类支出在未来将继续增加。我们的其他收入环比下降，主要原因是比特币持有量的市场调整，第三季度的收益只有8000万，相较于第二季度的2.84亿要少得多，其余的变化可归因于本季度的外汇变动。我们本季度的自由现金流大约是40亿，这再创了纪录。
Our total cash and investments at the end of the quarter were over 41 billion. On the CapEx front, while we are expecting to be around 9 billion for the current year, we're projecting the numbers to increase substantially in 2026, as we prepare the company for the next phase of growth in terms of not just our existing businesses, but our bets around AI initiatives, including optimists. In conclusion, note that bringing AI into real world is hard, but we have never shied away from doing what is hard. We are extremely excited about the future and are laying down the foundation, the benefits of which will be realized over years to come. I would like to end by thanking the Tesla team, our customers, our investors and supporters for the continued belief in us.
在季度末，我们的现金和投资总额超过了410亿美元。关于资本支出(CapEx)，虽然我们预计今年大约为90亿美元，但预计到2026年这个数字将大幅增加，因为我们不仅在为现有业务的增长做准备，还在对AI项目进行投资，包括Optimist。在结尾我要说，把AI引入现实世界是困难的，但我们从不惧怕挑战。我们对未来充满期待，并正在奠定基础，这些努力的成果将在未来几年显现。我想最后感谢特斯拉团队、我们的客户、投资者和支持者，感谢大家对我们的持续信任。
Cumulative miles, rides completed, intervention rates, and when will safety drivers be removed? What are the obstacles still preventing unsupervised FSD from being deployed to customer vehicles? I'll start off with that and then I shall elaborate. But we are expecting to have no safety drivers in at least large parts of Austin by the end of this year, so within a few months, we expect to have no safety drivers at all, at least in parts of Austin. We're obviously being very cautious about the deployment. Our goal is to be actually paranoid about deployment because obviously even one accident will be front page headlight news worldwide.
累计里程、完成的行程次数、干预率，以及安全驾驶员何时会被移除？还有哪些障碍阻止无人监管的FSD（全自动驾驶）被部署到客户车辆上？我会从这里开始，然后再详细说明。不过，我们预计到今年年底，至少在奥斯汀的部分地区将不再需要安全驾驶员，所以在几个月内，我们希望至少在奥斯汀的部分地区完全取消安全驾驶员。显然，我们对这次部署非常谨慎。我们的目标是在部署过程中保持极度警惕，因为哪怕只发生一起事故，也会成为全球头条新闻。
It's better for us to take a cautious approach here, but we do expect to have no safety drivers in the car in Austin, within a few months. I think that's perhaps the most important data point. Then we do expect to be operating robot taxi in I think about eight to ten metro areas by the end of the year. It depends on various regulatory approvals. But you can actually, I think most of our regulatory applications are online. You can kind of see them because they're public information. But we expect to be operating in Nevada and Florida and Arizona by the end of the year.
我们认为在这里采取谨慎的方式是更好的，但是我们预计在几个月内，奥斯汀的汽车中将不再需要安全驾驶员。我认为这可能是最重要的信息点。接着，我们预计在年底前会在大约八到十个大都市地区运营自动驾驶出租车。这取决于各种监管批准。不过大部分监管申请可以在线查看，因为它们是公开信息。我们预计在年底前能在内华达州、佛罗里达州和亚利桑那州开始运营。
We continue to operate our fleet in Austin without any other in the driver seat. We have covered more than a quarter million miles with that. Then in the Bay Area, we still have a person in the driver seat because of the regulations. We cross more than a million miles. We continue to see that the fleet robot taxi fleet works really well. Customers are really happy. There's no notable issues. On the customer side, customers have used FSE supervise for a total of six billion miles as of yesterday. That's like a big milestone. Overall, the safety continues to be very good.
我们继续在奥斯汀运营我们的车队，车上没有其他司机坐在驾驶座上。到目前为止，我们已经行驶了超过二十五万英里。在湾区，由于法规要求，我们仍然需要在驾驶座上安排一个人。我们在那里已经行驶了超过一百万英里。我们发现车队的自动出租车运行得非常好，顾客非常满意，没有出现明显的问题。在顾客方面，截至昨天，顾客使用FSE系统总共行驶了六十亿英里，这是一项重要的里程碑。总体来说，安全性依然保持非常好。
As Elon mentioned, we are on track to remove the person from inside the car altogether starting with Austin. Great. The next question is, what is the demand and backlog for Megapack, Powerwall, Solar, or Energy Storage systems? With the current AI boom, it's Tesla playing to supply power to other hyperscalers. Thanks. Demand for Megapack and Powerwall continues to be really strong into next year. We received very strong positive customer feedback on our Megablock product, which will begin shipping next year, not a fuston.
正如埃隆提到的，我们正在努力实现完全无人驾驶，首先从奥斯汀开始。 太好了。下一个问题是，Megapack、Powerwall、太阳能或能源存储系统的市场需求和订单积压情况如何？在当前的人工智能热潮中，特斯拉是否计划为其他大型数据中心提供电力支持？谢谢。Megapack和Powerwall的需求在明年仍然很强劲。我们收到了关于Megablock产品的非常积极的客户反馈，该产品将于明年开始发货，而不是某个一个地方。
We're seeing remarkable growth in the demand for AI and data center applications as hyperscalers and utilities have seen the versatility of the Megapack product to increase reliability and relieve grid constraints as Elon was talking about. We've also seen a surge in residential solar demand in the US due to policy changes, which we expect to continue into the first half of 2026 as we introduce the new solar lease product. And we also begin production of our Tesla residential solar panel in our Buffalo factory, and we will be shipping that to customers starting Q1.
我们观察到，随着超大规模数据中心和公用事业公司发现Megapack产品可以提高可靠性并缓解电网压力，人工智能和数据中心应用的需求显著增长，正如埃隆所提到的。我们还注意到，由于政策变化，美国的住宅太阳能需求大幅增加，我们预计这种趋势会持续到2026年上半年，因为我们将推出新的太阳能租赁产品。同时，我们也在开始在布法罗工厂生产特斯拉住宅太阳能面板，并计划在第一季度开始向客户发货。
The panel has industry leading aesthetics and shade performance, and demonstrates our continued commitment to US manufacturing. Great. Thank you, Mike. Unfortunately, the next question is related to future products. This is not the appropriate venue to cover that, so we're going to have to skip it. The question after that is, what are the present challenges in bringing optimists to market, considering app control software, engineering hardware, training general mobility models, training task specific models, training voice models, implementing manufacturing, and establishing supply chains?
该面板具有业界领先的美学设计和遮光性能，并展示了我们对美国制造业的持续承诺。好的，谢谢你，Mike。不幸的是，下一个问题涉及未来产品，这不是讨论该主题的合适场合，所以我们将跳过这个问题。之后的问题是，考虑到应用控制软件、工程硬件、培训通用移动模型、培训特定任务模型、培训语音模型、实施制造和建立供应链，目前在将乐观者推向市场方面面临哪些挑战？
Yeah, bringing office optimist market is an incredibly difficult task to be clear. It's not like some walk in the park at some point. I mean, at this actually technically Optimus can walk in the park right now. And we do have optimists, robots that walk around our offices at our engineering headquarters in Palo Alto, California, basically 24 hours a day, seven days a week. So any visitors that come by, you actually, you can stop one of the Optimus robots and ask it to take you somewhere, and it'll literally take you to that meeting room or that location in the building.
是的，开拓办公室乐观主义市场确实是一项非常困难的任务。这并不像随随便便去公园散步那样简单。我是说，技术上讲，“Optimus”现在确实可以在公园里行走。我们的工程总部位于加利福尼亚州的帕洛阿尔托，那里的办公室有“Optimus”机器人几乎每天24小时不停地巡逻。所以，任何来访的客人实际上都可以停下来对其中一台“Optimus”机器人问路，它会真的带你去会议室或建筑内的某个地方。
So I don't want to downplay the difficulty partners. It's an incredibly difficult thing, especially it's difficult to create a hand that is as dexterous and capable as the human hand, which is an incredible, the human hand is an incredible thing. The more you study the human hand, the more incredible you realize the human hand is, and why you need five, you know, four fingers in the thumb, why the, why the fingers have certain degrees of movement of freedom, you know, why the various muscles are of different strengths, the fingers are of different lengths, and it turns out actually that all, that those are all there for a reason.
所以我不想轻描淡写合作中的困难。这是一个非常困难的事情，特别是要创造出像人类手一样灵巧和多功能的手尤其困难。人类的手是一个非常了不起的东西。你越研究人类的手，就越会意识到它有多么不可思议，以及为什么你需要五个手指，其中包括拇指，为什么手指具有不同程度的灵活性，为什么不同的肌肉有不同的力量，手指的长度也不同，结果表明这些全部都是有原因的。
And so making it, making it that the hand and forearm, because most of the actuators, just like the human hand, the muscles that control your hand are actually primarily your forearm. The Optimus hand and forearm is an incredibly difficult engineering challenge. I say it's more difficult than the rest of, from an electro-bacannicle standpoint, the forearm and hand are more, it's more difficult than the entire rest of the robot. So, but really in order to have a useful generalized robot, you do need this, you do need an incredible hand, and you need the real-world AI, and you need to be able to scale up that production to have it be relevant, because it's not relevant if it's just a few hundred robots.
手臂和前臂的设计非常复杂，因为大多数控制手部的执行器和人类一样，主要是由前臂的肌肉来控制的。Optimus 机器人手臂和前臂的工程设计是一个非常艰巨的挑战。我认为，从机电角度来看，这比机器人的其他部分都要困难。为了打造一个有用的通用型机器人，我们确实需要一个出色的手部设计，还需要具备实际应用的人工智能。此外，为了让它真正有意义，我们还需要将其生产规模扩大，因为如果只有几百个机器人，这种意义是不够的。
But so you need to be able to make Optimus robots at volumes comparable to vehicles, if not significantly higher. So, you can try to make a million or something per year, it's turning to make a million Optimus robots per year, that manufacturing challenge is immense, considering that the supply chain doesn't exist. So, with cars, you've got an existing supply chain, with computers, you've got an existing supply chain, with a human or a robot, there is no supply chain.
所以，你需要能够以与汽车相当的规模，甚至更高的规模来生产Optimus机器人。假设一年制造一百万台机器人，这样的生产挑战将非常巨大，因为目前并没有现成的供应链。对于汽车和计算机来说，现有的供应链已经存在，但对于人类或者机器人来说，供应链是不存在的。
So, in order to manufacture, that tells actually has to be very botically integrated, and manufacture very deep into the supply chain may manufacture the parts internally, because there just is no supply chain. So, this is the kind of thing where I'm like, if I put myself in the position of a startup trying to make an off human or a robot, I'm like, I don't know how to do it without an immense amount of manufacturing technology. So, that's why I think like Tesla's in somewhat, almost a unique, I think unique position when you consider manufacturing technology scaling, real world AI, and the, and a truly dexterous hand.
因此，为了进行制造，必须高度自动化地整合生产，并深入供应链内部制造零部件，因为根本不存在可依赖的供应链。这让我想到，假如我是一个初创公司，尝试制作一个仿人型机器人或者机器人，我不知道在没有大量制造技术支持的情况下该如何实现。因此，我认为特斯拉在制造技术的规模化、现实世界的人工智能以及拥有一只真正灵活的手这方面处于一种几乎独一无二的地位。
Those are the generally the things that I'm missing when you read about other robots, that they just don't have those three things. So, I think we can achieve all those things, those three things with an immense amount of work. And that is the game plan. So, you know, my, like my fundamental concern with regard to how much voting control I have in Tesla is, if I go ahead and build this enormous robot army, can I just be outstead at some point in the future?
这些通常是我在阅读关于其他机器人的信息时感觉欠缺的东西，因为它们通常没有这三样东西。所以，我认为通过大量的工作，我们可以实现这三样东西。这就是我们的计划。那么，我对我在特斯拉的投票控制权的根本担忧是，如果我继续建立这个庞大的机器人军队，我将来会不会在某个时候就被替换掉呢？
That's my biggest concern. That is really the only thing I'm trying to address with this so-called compensation, but it's not like I'm going to go expand the money. It's just, if we build this robot army, do I have at least a strong influence over that robot army? It's not control, but a strong influence. That's what it comes down to in a nutshell. I don't feel comfortable holding a robot army if I don't have at least a strong influence.
这是我最担心的问题。这就是我所谓补偿所要解决的唯一问题，但这并不是说我要去花掉这些钱。只是，如果我们建立了一个机器人军队，我是否至少能对这个机器人军队具有很强的影响力？不是控制，而是强大的影响力。这就是问题的实质所在。如果我对一个机器人军队没有至少很强的影响力，我会感到不安。
Great, thank you. We've already covered ribotaxi expansion. Unfortunately, the question after that is another future product question, so we're going to have to skip that. The next one, though, is, can you update us on the $16.5 billion Samsung chip deal retailer? Given the importance of semiconductors to autonomy in Tesla's AI-driven future, what gives you confidence Samsung can fulfill AI6 at Tesla's timelines and achieve relatively better yields and cost versus TSMC?
好的，谢谢。我们已经讨论了ribotaxi的扩展。很遗憾，接下来的问题又是关于未来产品的，所以我们需要跳过这个问题。不过，接下来的问题是，能否更新一下关于三星165亿美元芯片供应商的情况？考虑到半导体对特斯拉的AI驱动未来的自主性的重要性，您如何确信三星能够在特斯拉的时间表内完成AI6，并在产量和成本方面相对于台积电实现相对更好的表现？
Okay, so I'm going to give quite a long answer to this question, because after unpacking this question, and then answer the unpacked version. First of all, I have nothing but great things to say about Samsung. An amazing company. Samsung is worth noting, does manufacturer our AI-fold computer and does a great job doing that? With the AI-5, and here's, I need to make a point of clarification relative to some comments I've made publicly before, which is we're actually going to focus both TSMC and Samsung initially on AI-5.
好的，我将对这个问题给出一个较长的回答，因为需要先理清问题，再回答分解后的版本。首先，我对三星只有赞美之词，这是一家了不起的公司。值得注意的是，三星确实生产我们的AI-fold计算机，并且做得非常出色。关于AI-5，我需要澄清一下我之前公开评论中的一些内容，我们实际上会在最初阶段分别依靠台积电和三星来专注于AI-5的生产。
So the AI-5 chip design by Tesla is, I think it's an amazing design. I've spent almost every weekend for last few months with the chip design team working on AI-5. And I don't hand out praise easily, but I have to say that I think the Tesla chip team is really designing an incredible chip here. This is, by some metrics, the AI-5 chip will be 40 times better than the AI-4 chip, not 40%, 40 times. Because we have a detailed understanding of the entire software and hardware stack. So we're designing the hardware to address all of the pain points in software.
特斯拉设计的 AI-5 芯片，我认为这是一个了不起的设计。过去几个月，我几乎每个周末都和芯片设计团队一起工作在 AI-5 上。我通常不轻易称赞，但不得不说，我觉得特斯拉的芯片团队真的在设计一款非常出色的芯片。根据一些指标，AI-5 芯片的性能将比 AI-4 芯片提升40倍，不是提升40%，而是40倍。因为我们对整个软件和硬件堆栈有深入的了解，所以我们在设计硬件时，能够针对软件中的所有痛点进行优化。
So there really isn't anyone that's doing this the entire stack all the way through real world, you know, calibrating against the real world where you've got cars and robots in real world. We know what the chip needs to do, and we know what it just is important. We know what the chip doesn't need to do. You know, to give you some examples here. With the AI-5, we deleted the legacy GPU or the traditional GPU, which is in AI-4. But AI-5 does not have, we just deleted the legacy GPU because it basically is a GPU.
实际上，目前还没有任何人在整个技术栈中完成这项工作，并且能在现实世界中进行校准，也就是说，在真实世界中有汽车和机器人的使用。我们知道芯片需要做什么，也知道什么是重要的。我们也明确芯片不需要做什么。比如说，在AI-5中，我们删除了AI-4中存在的传统GPU。AI-5没有传统GPU，因为它本质上就是一个GPU。
So we also deleted the image signal processor. And this is like a long list of actually of deletions that are very important. As a result of these deletions, we can actually put AI-5 in a half-radical and with good margin for the traces from the memory to the Tesla trip accelerators, the ARM CPU cores, and the PCIx, sort of the PCIx blocks. So this is a beautiful chip. I've poured so much life energy into this chip personally, and I'm confident this will be a winner next level.
所以我们也删除了图像信号处理器。实际上，这是一长串非常重要的删减。由于这些删减，我们可以将AI-5放入一个半径空间中，而且从内存到Tesla加速器、ARM CPU核和PCIx模块的走线都有足够的余量。这是一个杰出的芯片，我个人投入了大量的心血，我相信这将是下一代的赢家。
So it makes sense to have both Samsung and TSMC focus on AI-5. Technically, the Samsung app has slightly more advanced equipment than the TSMC app. These will both be made in the US, that in TSMC and Arizona, Samsung in Texas. We're going to make a starting off just to be confident of having our goal, explicitly, is to have an oversupply of AI-5 chips. Because if we have too many AI-5 chips for the cars and robots, we can always put them in the data center.
因此，让三星和台积电都专注于AI-5是有道理的。从技术上讲，三星的应用程序所配备的设备略先进于台积电的。这些芯片都会在美国制造，台积电是在亚利桑那州，三星则是在德克萨斯州。我们的初期目标非常明确，就是要生产出超额的AI-5芯片供应。因为如果我们为汽车和机器人生产的AI-5芯片太多，我们总可以把它们用于数据中心。
So we already use AI-4 for training in our data center. So we use a combination of AI-4 and Nvidia hardware. So we're not about to replace Nvidia to be clear, but we do use both in combination AI-4 and Nvidia hardware. And the AI-5 access production we can always put in our data centers. Nvidia keeps improving that the challenge that they have is that they've got to satisfy a lot of requirements from a lot of customers. The TESLA only has to satisfy requirements from one customer with TESLA.
我们已经在数据中心使用AI-4进行训练。我们结合使用AI-4和英伟达的硬件。需要明确的是，我们并不打算替代英伟达，而是将AI-4和英伟达硬件结合使用。同时，我们可以随时将AI-5投入我们的数据中心进行生产。英伟达一直在改进，但它面临的挑战是需要满足众多客户的多种需求。而TESLA只需满足其唯一客户的需求。
That makes the design job radically easier, and means we can delete a lot of complexity from the chip. I can't emphasize how important this is. So when you look at the various logic blocks in the chip, as you increase the number of logic blocks, you also increase the interconnections between the logic blocks. So you can think of it like there's just highways. How many highways do you need to connect the various parts of the chip?
这让设计工作变得极其简单，同时意味着我们可以去掉芯片中的很多复杂性。这一点非常重要，无法强调更多。当你查看芯片中的各个逻辑模块时，随着逻辑模块数量的增加，模块之间的连接也随之增加。你可以把它想象成高速公路，需要多少高速公路来连接芯片的各个部分？
And especially if you're not sure how much data is going to go between each logic block on the chip, then you end up having giant highways going all over the place. It becomes almost impossible difficult design problem. Nvidia is done an amazing job of dealing with almost an impossible difficult set of requirements. But in our case, we're grateful radical simplicity. And the net effect is that I think AI-5 will be the best performance per watt, maybe by a factor of 203, and the best performance per dollar for AI, maybe by a factor of 10.
如果你不确定芯片上每个逻辑单元之间会有多少数据需要传输，就会出现数据传输通道错综复杂的情况。这会变成一个几乎不可能解决的设计难题。尽管Nvidia在应对这些几乎不可能的严格要求上做得非常出色，但我们更倾向于追求极简的设计。最终的结果是，我认为AI-5会在每瓦性能方面成为最优，可能超出203倍，并且在每美元性能方面的表现也是AI领域最佳，可能提高10倍。
So the proofs in the pudding, so we need to actually get the chip made and made it scale. But that's what it looks like. Great, thank you Elon. We've already covered unsupervised FSD. So the next question is, instead of trying to replace hardware 3 with hardware 4, why not give an equal incentive to trade in for a new vehicle? Yeah, we're not completely given upon hardware 3. However, over the last year, we've offered the customers the option to transfer FSD to their new vehicle, which at times we've been running some promotions. If they got FSD, they can get better preferential rates. So we've been definitely taking care of this. But we do want to solve it on me first. And then we'll come back with a way to take care of these customers. These customers are very important. They were the early adapters.
好的，这句话的意思是：证明最终在于实践，所以我们需要真正制造出这个芯片并让它能够大规模生产。这就是我们的计划。谢谢你，Elon。我们已经讨论过无人监督的全自动驾驶（FSD）。下一个问题是，为什么不提供相同的激励措施来换购新车，而不是试图用硬件4替代硬件3？是的，我们并没有完全放弃硬件3。然而，在过去的一年里，我们为客户提供了将FSD转移到新车的选项，有时我们还进行了一些促销活动。如果他们已经拥有FSD，就可以享受到更优惠的利率。因此，我们一直在照顾到这方面的问题。但是我们首先想要在“我”这一方面解决这个问题，然后再回过头来为这些客户提供解决方案。这些客户非常重要，他们是早期的采纳者。
What it's worth, my daily commuter is a hardware 3 car, which I use FSD on a daily basis. So we will definitely take care of you guys. Great, thank you. One of the V14 release series is fully done. We are planning on working on a V14 light version for hardware 3, probably expected in Q2 next year. Awesome, thanks, Shirk. Alrighty, our final question from, say, is how long until we see self-driving Tesla semi-trucks? And could you see this technology replacing trains?
翻译如下：
就我的经验而言，我每天通勤的车辆是硬件3版本，并且我每天都使用全自动驾驶功能。所以我们肯定会照顾到大家。好的，谢谢。其中一个V14版本系列已经完全完成。我们计划为硬件3开发一个V14轻量版本，预计明年第二季度推出。太棒了，谢谢你，Shirk。好的，我们最后一个问题是，多久之后我们能看到特斯拉的自动驾驶半挂卡车上路？你认为这项技术能否取代火车？
Yeah, so I guess I'll start with that in terms of the semi-production plan and schedule. So the factory is going on schedule. We've completed the building and are installing the equipment now. We've got our fleet of validation trucks driving on the road. We'll have larger builds towards the end of this year and then our first online builds in the first part of next year, ramping into the Q2 timing with real volume coming in the back half of the year. So that's going quite well. And that's the first step, obviously, getting autonomous trucks on the road.
好的，我想我会先从半生产计划和时间表开始说起。目前工厂的进展一切顺利：建筑部分已经完成，我们正在安装设备。目前，我们的验证卡车队已经开始上路。在今年年底，我们会进行较大规模的生产，而明年初会开始首批在线生产，到第二季度将会逐步增加产量，并在下半年实现实际的大规模生产。所以，一切进展得很顺利。这显然是让自动驾驶卡车上路的第一步。
In terms of trains, they're really great for a long point to point deliveries are super efficient, but that last mile, the load unload can be better served for shorter distances with autonomous semi-s and that would be great. And so we do expect that to probably shift. And as we, you know, really, as Elon said, change the way transportation is considered. And so we're looking forward to that timeline and a show I know you can take the full self-driving part. Currently, the team is super focused on solving for passenger vehicles or autonomy.
在谈到火车时，它们对于长距离的点到点运输非常高效，但在最后一公里的装卸上，自动驾驶卡车可能更适合短距离运输。这方面可能会有所转变，正如Elon所说的，这种变化将改变我们对交通运输的看法。我们期待这样的进展，目前团队的重点是解决乘用车的自动驾驶问题。
That said, the same technology will externally quite easily do the semi-truck once we have a little bit of data from the semi-trucks. Great. And now we will move over to analyst questions. The first question comes from a manual at Wolf. Manual, please go ahead and unmute yourself. Great. Thanks so much. Hi, everybody. So, Elon, you talked about expanding production of vehicles as fast as possible, now that you have confidence in the unsurpassed autonomy.
当然，使用相同技术，只要我们从半挂卡车上获得一些数据，就可以很容易地应用于半挂卡车。好的，现在我们进入分析师提问环节。第一个问题来自Wolf公司的Manual。Manual，请解除静音并提问。好的，非常感谢。大家好。Elon，你之前提到，因为对无与伦比的自动驾驶技术有信心，所以计划尽快扩大车辆生产规模。
How should we think about that in the context of your existing capacity of three million units? Is that where you're hoping to get volume two? What sort of timeline are we talking about? And would this require, you know, some level of boosting or incentivizing the man? Like would this basically be prioritizing volume over near-term profitability, given the longer-term opportunity? Well, our capacity isn't quite three million. But it will be three million at some point. You know, aspirationally, you know, it could be three million within, we could probably have an annualized rate of three million within 24 months, I think.
在您现有的三百万单位产能的背景下，我们应该如何看待这个问题？这是您希望达到的生产量目标吗？这里的时间线是什么样的？这是否需要一定程度的推动或激励需求？也就是说，考虑到长期机会，您是否会优先考虑生产量而不是短期盈利？
我们的产能还没有达到三百万，但总有一天会达到。理想情况下，我们可能在24个月内每年实现三百万单位的产能。
Maybe less than 24 months. It brings in mind like there's an entire supply chain, like a vast supply chain that's got to also move in tandem with that. So, we're going to expand production as fast as we can. As fast as that supply can sort of keep up with it. And then we're going to think about where do we build incremental factories beyond that. Like the single biggest expansion in production will be the cyber cap, which stops production in Q2 next year. That's really a vehicle that's optimized for full autonomy.
可能不到24个月。这让人想到有一个庞大的供应链，也必须同步进行。因此，我们会尽可能快地扩大生产速度，只要供应链能跟上这个速度。接下来，我们会考虑在哪里新建工厂来进一步增加产能。最大的一次产能扩张将是Cyber Cap，它将在明年第二季度停止生产。这实际上是一款为实现完全自动驾驶而优化的车辆。
In fact, does not have a steering wheel of pedals and is really an engineering optimization on minimizing cost per mile, fully considered cost per mile of operation. So that's for the other vehicles, there's still a little bit of the horse that's carriage thing going on where obviously you've got, if you've got steering wheels and pedals and and you're designing a car that people might want to go, you know, very do you write past acceleration and type cornering like type performance cars, then you're going to design a different car than one that is optimized for a comfortable ride, but doesn't expect to go, you know, past 85 or 90 miles an hour.
实际上，没有方向盘和踏板的设计真正体现了工程优化，旨在将每英里的成本降到最低，全面考虑了运营的每英里成本。至于其他车辆，它们仍然有些像“马车”的概念，显然，如果你有方向盘和踏板，并且设计一辆人们可能希望快速加速或急转弯的高性能汽车，那么你会设计一种不同于那种优化为舒适驾驶、但不期望超过85或90英里每小时的车辆。
And it's just aiming for a gentle ride the whole time. That's what cyber cap is. So, yeah, so it's, I think we'll sacrifice margins. I don't think so. I think the demand will be pretty nutty. Like here's the killer app really what it comes on to is can you text while you're in the car? And if you tell someone yes that the car is now so good, you can you can you can be on your phone and text the entire time while you're in the car. Anyone who can't buy the car will buy the car. And it's a story. So, that's what everybody wants to do. In fact, not everyone wants to. They do do that. That's why in fact the reason you've seen like there's been an uptick in accidents pretty much worldwide is because people are texting and driving. So, autopilot actually can actually improve the safety here because if somebody's looking down at their phone, they're not driving very well.
它只是一直追求一种轻松的驾驶体验。这就是“网络帽”（cyber cap）。所以，我觉得这值得我们牺牲一些利润。我不这么认为。我觉得需求会非常旺盛。真正吸引人的关键点是：你能在车里发短信吗？如果你告诉别人，现在车已经好到可以全程在车里用手机发短信，任何买得起这车的人都会想买。这就是大家想要的。实际上，很多人确实在车内发短信，这也是为什么全世界交通事故有所增加的原因之一，因为人们在开车时分心。自动驾驶功能可以提高安全性，因为当有人低头看手机时，他们的驾驶表现会变差。
So, that's really the game changer. And we do see like at this point, I feel essentially 100% confident, not essentially 100% confident that we can solve unsupervised full self driving at a safety level much greater than human. So, we've released 14.1. We've got a technology roadmap that's I think pretty amazing. We'll be adding reasoning to the car. Our world simulator for reinforcement learning is pretty incredible. Like I like when you see it that the Tesla reality simulator, you can't tell it from the screen. The video that's generated by the Tesla reality simulator and the actual video looks exactly the same. So, that allows us to have a very powerful reinforcement learning loop to further improve the Tesla AI. We're going to be increasing the parameter account by an order of magnitude that that's not 14.1. There are also a number of other improvements to the AI just that are quite radical.
这真的是一个改变游戏规则的时刻。目前，我感到几乎100%有信心，能够在没有监督的情况下，实现比人类安全水平更高的完全自动驾驶。我们已经发布了版本14.1，并制定了一份相当出色的技术路线图。我们将为汽车增加推理能力。我们的用于强化学习的世界模拟器非常出色，当你看到特斯拉现实模拟器时，会发现模拟的画面和真实视频毫无区别。这让我们能够形成一个非常强大的强化学习循环，进一步提升特斯拉的人工智能。我们将把参数数量增加一个数量级，这与版本14.1无关。此外，还有许多其他相当激进的AI改进。
So, this car will feel like it is a living creature. That's how good the AI will get with the AI4 computer with this before AI5. And then AI5, like I said, is by some metrics 40 times better, which is say safely its 10x improvement. So, it might almost be too much intelligence for a car. I do wonder how much intelligence should you have in a car? It might get bored. Actually, and then one of the things I hope, like if we got all these caused that maybe a board, well, while they're sort of, if they're all bored, we could actually have a giant distributed inference fleet and say, well, if they're not actively driving, let's just have a giant distributed inference fleet. At some point, if you've got tens of millions of cars in the fleet, or maybe at some point a hundred million cars in the fleet, let's say they had at that point, like I don't know, a kilowatt of inference capability of high-formance inference capability, that's a hundred kilowatts of inference distributed with power and cooling and power conversion to the carol.
这辆车会让人感觉像是一个活生生的生物。AI4计算机的强大性能将达到如此程度，而AI5更是提升了一大步，据说在某些指标上提高了40倍，保守说也有10倍的进步。所以，这辆车的智能可能会超出想象。我也在想，一辆车到底该有多少智能呢？或许智能太高会让车感到无聊。事实上，我希望，如果有很多车感到无聊，那我们可以把它们组成一个庞大的分布式推理网络。这样如果它们没有在主动驾驶，就可以成为一个庞大的推理计算网络。假设有成千万上百万辆这样的车，每辆车有1千瓦的推理能力，加起来就是百千瓦的推理能力，再加上电力和冷却系统，真的是一个惊人的分布式计算网络。
So, that seems like a pretty significant asset. Great. Thanks, Elon. The next question comes from Adam from Morgan Stanley. Adam, please feel free to unmute yourself. Adam, go ahead and ask your question. It seems like we might be having some audio issues with Adam. So, we'll come back to you. The next question will then come from Dan from Parkless. Hi, good evening. Thank you for taking the question. Elon, I know that Tesla is really focused on with Master Plan 4 bringing AI into the physical world. And I think we've seen over the past, this willingness for Tesla to engage and go into new markets, new tams. So, when you think about the growth prospects, how do we define the areas that are really within Tesla's core competency versus where do you draw the line for markets or AI applications that are outside of Tesla's core competency?
好的，这似乎是一个相当重要的资产。谢谢你，Elon。接下来的问题来自摩根士丹利的Adam。Adam，请您取消静音，随时提问。看起来我们可能遇到了一些音频问题，现在无法听到Adam的提问。我们稍后会再回到他的问题。接下来的问题来自Parkless的Dan。晚上好，谢谢你接受我的问题。Elon，我知道特斯拉在《宏图计划4》中非常专注于将AI引入实体世界。我认为过去我们已经看到特斯拉愿意进入新的市场和行业。那么在您考虑增长前景时，我们如何区分哪些领域是真正属于特斯拉的核心竞争力，而哪些市场或AI应用是超出特斯拉核心竞争力范围的呢？
Actually, I'm not sure what you mean by AI application's outside of Tesla's core competency. But we kind of, we didn't have any of these core competencies when we started, you know. So, it's like we had zero core competencies, total confidence is zero actually. So, I mean, the thing of Tesla is like, I don't know, it doesn't start up in one company. You know, and I've initiated every one of those startups. So, it's, it wouldn't used to make battery packs, say stationary battery packs, but now we do, we're making for the home, making for, you know, utility scale with car oil mega pack. We've created the supercharger network globally. No one else has created a global supercharger network. In fact, North American supercharger network. So, good, that basically that every other manufacturer in North America has converted to our standard and uses our, that, that Tesla supercharger network.
其实，我不太明白你所说的"超出特斯拉核心竞争力"的AI应用是什么意思。不过说实话，我们在刚开始的时候也没有任何核心竞争力。可以说，我们的核心竞争力最初为零，但我们的信心不是零。特斯拉的特点是，它不只是在一个领域开始创新。我是每一个这些新项目的发起者。所以，比如最初我们并不会制造电池组，比如用于固定储能的电池组，但现在我们会了，我们制造家用和电力公司大规模使用的电池，包括Car Oil Mega Pack。我们建立了全球的超级充电网络，没有其他公司做到这一点。实际上，北美的其他汽车制造商现在都采用了我们的标准，使用我们的特斯拉超级充电网络。
But if it was so easy, why don't they just do it? And the CHEP design team, started that from scratch, the Tesla AI software team with SOTR from scratch. I literally just say, hey, we're going to stop this thing. I posted on Twitter now X, and then, you know, join us if you'd like to build it. In fact, the show was, I believe the first person I interviewed for the Tesla autopilot team, which we're not called, it's a AI software. team, because it is the AS software team. So, you know, its core companies, come to these created while you wait. And, you know, Optimus at scale, it is the infinite money glitch. It's like, this is a, it's difficult to express the magnitude of, like if you've got something that, like, that, like, if I optimise, I think probably achieve 5X to the productivity of a person per year, because it can operate 24-7. It doesn't even need to charge. It can operate it tethered, so it's plugged in the whole time. And, so that's why I call it, like, if you're true of sustainable abundance, we're working with the optional.
如果真那么简单，为什么他们不去做呢？CHEP设计团队和从零开始的特斯拉AI软件团队（SOTR）都从头开始。我直接在推特上（现称为X平台）发帖说：我们要停止这个项目，想参与构建的可以加入。事实上，那次节目中，我面试了特斯拉自动驾驶团队的第一个人。但我们不称之为自动驾驶团队，而是AI软件团队。它是软件团队。基本上，这些核心公司在你等待时就能创造出成果。在大规模下实现Optimus，是一种无限的经济增长方式。很难用言语表达这种重要性，比如如果你有什么东西可以优化，我认为它的年生产效率可能是人类的5倍，因为它可以全天候24小时运作，甚至不需要充电。它可以一直插电工作。这就是为什么我说，如果你相信可持续的丰盈，我们正在与可选项一起努力。
You know, there's a lot of too much, how much AI can do in terms of enhancing the productivity of humans. But there is not really a limit to AI that is embodied. That's why I call it the infinite money glitch. I mean, one thing which I'll further add is, I mean, people forget, like, our first iteration of autopilot was 10 years back. So, you know, Elon had started this way back in the day. We got the twist to prove it. Exactly. And then even, even on the Optimus side, right, as much as people think, oh, good, this is a new thing, I still remember, was it 4 plus years back, we were in the finance meeting with Elon and Elon said, hey, our car is the robot on wheels. And that's where we started developing. In fact, most of the engineering team, which is working on Optimus, has come from the vehicle side. And that's why, you know, when we talk about manufacturing products, we have the bear with hope because the same engineers who worked in the back of the day on drive units are working on actuators now.
你知道吗，人们常常讨论人工智能可以在多大程度上提高人类的生产力。但是，实际上对于具备实体形态的AI来说，并没有什么真正的限制。这就是我称之为“无限金钱漏洞”的原因。还有一点我想补充的是，很多人可能忘了，我们的自动驾驶技术的第一次迭代是在10年前。所以，埃隆·马斯克很早就开始了这项工作。我们有证据可以证明这一点。即使是在Optimus项目上，很多人认为这是个新事物，但我依然记得，大约4年多前，我们在一次财务会议上，埃隆说，我们的汽车是“装在轮子上的机器人”。从那时候开始，我们就着手开发Optimus。实际上，大多数在Optimus项目上工作的工程师都是来自车辆开发团队。因此，当我们讨论制造产品时，有理由感到乐观，因为这些工程师以前负责驱动单元开发，现在则专注于执行器的研发。
So that's where we can, if there's any company which can do it at scale, that is going to be us. But we also have actually added a lot of new engineers as well to the team. So there's actually a lot of the credit for the Optimus engineering is actually also new engineers, many of them that are just out of college, actually. So the Optimus engineering team is a very talented engineering team, to like wow, actually. So, and, you know, the Optimus reviews at this point are, that is the engineering review. And then there's the manufacturing review done. It's simultaneously with an iterative loop between engineering design and manufacturing. Because then we see we design something and we see like, oh man, that's really difficult to make. We need to change that design to make it easier to manufacture. So we've made radical improvements to the design of Optimus while increasing the functionality, but making it actually possible to manufacture.
所以，如果有哪家公司能够大规模实现这一点，那一定是我们公司。我们还增加了很多新工程师加入团队。实际上，许多来自于Optimus工程项目的功劳都属于这些新工程师，他们中很多人刚刚从大学毕业。Optimus工程团队是一个非常有才华的团队，真的令人惊叹。目前，Optimus的评审包括工程评审以及制造评审。这两个评审是同时进行的，并在工程设计和制造之间形成了一个反复迭代的循环。因为我们会发现设计出来的东西可能很难制造，因此需要修改设计以便更容易生产。我们对Optimus的设计进行了彻底的改进，不仅提升了功能，也让制造变得更加可行。
Like I'd say Optimus 2 is almost impossible to manufacture, frankly. But my two-five of points we've gone from a person in a robot outfit to what people have seen with Optimus 2.5 where it's doing kung fu. You know, it was like Optimus was at the at the Tron premiere doing kung fu, you know, just out in the open, you know, like with Jared Leto. Like there wasn't, nobody was controlling it. It was just doing kung fu with Jared Leto at the Tron premiere. You can see the videos online. And actually the funny thing is like a lot of people walked past it thinking it was just a person. Even though with Optimus 2.5 you can see that it has a waist that's three inches wide, which is obviously not a human. So, but the movements were so human like that people didn't realize, a lot of people didn't realize they were looking at a robot.
说实话，我觉得制造Optimus 2几乎是不可能的。但从我们早先的机器人服装到现在的Optimus 2.5，已经有了巨大进步，它竟然在做功夫展示。可以这样说，就像Optimus在《创：战纪》首映式上和Jared Leto一起做功夫表演那样，而且是毫无遮挡地进行，也没有人操控它。你可以在网上看到那些视频。其实有意思的是，很多人走过它时以为这只是个人。尽管Optimus 2.5的腰只有三英寸宽，显然不像人类，但它的动作太像真人了，以至于很多人没意识到他们看到的是个机器人。
So, and what I'm saying is like Optimus 3 will be a giant improvement on that and made its scale. But like said, a very difficult thing. The Optimus sort of injuring and manufacturing reviews and there's the Friday night meeting with Optimus, sometimes ghostful midnight. And then my Saturday meetings is the Saturday afternoons with the AI 5 chip design team. So, those two things are crucial to the future of the company. And you have a great day. Yeah, just as a related maybe you could just talk about to what extent are the AI efforts at Tesla and XAI complement 3 or they just different forms of AI. Maybe you could just help distinguish for the audience. Thank you.
好的，我的意思是，Optimus 3 将在这方面有巨大的改进，并将实现其规模化。但正如所说，这确实是一个非常困难的事情。Optimus 的生产和审核都要进行，还有周五晚上和 Optimus 的会议，有时候会一直开到半夜。然后我在周六下午还有一个和 AI 5 芯片设计团队的会议。这两件事情对于公司的未来至关重要。祝你有美好的一天。是的，可能你可以谈谈 Tesla 和 XAI 的 AI 努力在多大程度上是互补的，还是它们代表不同形式的 AI。或许你可以帮助观众区分一下。谢谢。
Yeah, there are different forms of AI. So, the, you know, the, the XAI so, GROC is like a giant model that you could not possibly squeeze GROC onto a car. That's for sure. It is a giant B-soil model. It's with GROC it's trying to say solve for artificial general intelligence with a massive amount of AI training compute and inference compute. So, for example, GROC 5 will actually only run effectively on a GV 300. That's how much of a beast that GROC 5 is. So, where is Tesla's models are, I don't know, maybe about less than 10% the size, maybe closer to 5% the size of GROC. So, yeah, they're really coming at the problem from very different angles. XAI and GROC are, you know, they're competing with your Google Gemini and opening at chat GPT and that kind of thing. So, it's some of its complementary, for example, for GROC voice, they're able to interact with GROC in the car. It's called GROC for, you know, optimists, voice recognition and voice generation is GROC. So, that's helpful there.
是的，人工智能有不同的形式。比如说，XAI 和 GROC 都是巨大的模型，你绝对无法把 GROC 塞进一辆车里。这肯定不行。GROC 是一个庞大的 B-soil 模型，它通过大量的 AI 训练计算和推理计算来尝试解决通用人工智能的问题。例如，GROC 5 只能在一个 GV 300 上有效运行，这说明 GROC 5 是多么的强大。而特斯拉的模型可能只有 GROC 的不到10%的规模，甚至可能更接近5%。所以，他们从完全不同的角度来解决问题。XAI 和 GROC 正在与谷歌的 Gemini 和 OpenAI 的 ChatGPT 等竞赛。有些是互补的。例如，GROC 语音可以在车内与 GROC 互动。这被称为针对 Optimist 的语音识别和语音生成的 GROC，这在某些方面很有帮助。
But they are coming at it from kind of opposite ends of the spectrum. Already Adam, let's give another try. When you're ready, please unmute yourself for the next question. Already, unfortunately, still having audio issues. So, we're going to move on to Walt from LightShed. Walt, please go ahead and unmute yourself. Did you hear me now? Yes. Perfect. Thank you. Just getting back to Austin, if you can remove the safety driver at your end, is the limitation in the Bay Area just regulatory or is it kind of the market by market learning process? And I guess similarly in the 8 to 10 markets that you mentioned to get added, is the decision there to put a safety attend in the passenger seat or the safety driver? And is that like your step-by-step process to opening up a market or is it really just a regulation in the individual market?
他们从整个范围的两个极端来看这个问题。好的，Adam，让我们再试一次。当你准备好时，请取消静音以进行下一个问题。很遗憾，仍然有音频问题。我们接下来请 Walt 来自 LightShed。Walt，请取消静音。你现在能听到我吗？可以，听得很清楚，谢谢。回到奥斯汀，如果你那边可以移除安全驾驶员，湾区的限制只是法规问题吗，还是说还要根据市场的不同来逐个学习？我想问你提到的 8 到 10 个新增市场，那里决定是安排一个安全员在乘客座位上还是需要安全驾驶员？这是否是你们为了开放市场所采取的逐步流程，还是实际上取决于各个市场的具体法规？
Well, I think even if the regulators weren't making us do it, we'd still do that as the right sort of cautious approach to a new market. So, just to make sure that we're being paranoid about safety, I think it makes sense to have a sort of either safety driver or safety occupant in the car when we first go to new markets to just confirm that there's not something we're missing. Because all it takes is like one in 10,000 trips to go wrong and you've got an issue. So, it's just to make sure that there's some curiosity about a city, like a very difficult intersection or I don't know, something that's an unexpected challenge in a city for that one in 10,000 situation. So, I think we probably could just let it loose in the cities, but we just don't want to take a chance. And like, you know what we're talking about here is maybe three months of safety driver in a new metro to confirm that it's good and then we take the safety driver out, that kind of thing.
好吧，我觉得即使监管部门没有要求我们这样做，我们也会采取这种谨慎的方法来进入新市场。为了确保我们对安全足够小心，我认为在我们首次进入新市场时，在车里安排一名安全驾驶员或安全乘员是有道理的，以确认我们没有遗漏任何问题。因为只要有一次失误，大约每一万次出行中就可能会出现问题。所以，我们这样做只是为了确保对一个城市中的某些情况有一定的了解，比如一个非常难处理的十字路口，或者一些城市中意想不到的挑战，就是为了应对每一万次中的那一次意外情况。我认为我们可能可以直接在城市中进行测试，但我们不想冒险。我们正在讨论的可能是新城市中安排三个月的安全驾驶员来确认安全，然后再撤掉安全驾驶员，大概是这样。
Okay, and then on FSD 14, it has a different field than 13 and it's also I think a little different than what it feels like in Austin. Is it basically different development paths that you're doing in terms of the robot taxi stuff versus what you're dropping to the early adopters? And when you push these new builds, is it that you're looking for notable improvements in intervention rates? Or is that largely solved and it's more about adding the functionality like the parking, the drive metal, or just the overall comfort? Now, the first priority when we release a major new software architecture for autopilot is safety. So, it's also with safety, you know, obviously safety prioritized and then we solve comfort thereafter, which is why I don't recommend people take the initial version, like that's why I say like most people should wait until 14.2 before they actually download version 14, because by 14.2 we will have addressed many of the comfort issues.
好的，然后在FSD 14上，它有一个与13不同的领域，而且我认为它与奥斯汀的感觉也有些不同。基本上，这是否意味着你们在开发机器人出租车方面采取了不同的发展路线，与那些向早期用户推出的版本不同？当你们推出这些新的版本时，是在寻找干预率上的显著改进吗？还是说这个问题基本上已经解决，更多的是在增加功能，比如停车、驾驶金属部件或整体的舒适性？
现在，当我们发布一个自动驾驶的全新软件架构时，首要任务是安全。所以，当然，安全是优先考虑的，然后我们才解决舒适性的问题。这也是为什么我不建议人们最初就采用这个版本的原因。我建议大多数人应该等到14.2版本发布之后再下载第14版，因为到14.2时，我们将解决许多舒适性的问题。
The priority is very much safety first and then thereafter the comfort issues. That's why most people are like, I probably it'll be a little like it'll be safe but jerky. And we just need time to kind of smooth the rough edges and solve for comfort in addition to safety with the major news, the autopilot architecture change. But it really is, I mean I know what the, you know, the road map is for the Tesla real world AI and a brand new granular data detail obviously I show because leading that and I mean I spent a lot of time with the team going, you know, like excruciating detail here on what we're doing to improve the real world AI. And like I said, this car is going to feel like it is a living creature and that's what AI for before even AI5.
优先考虑安全，其次是舒适性的问题。这就是为什么大多数人会觉得可能有点不太平稳，但至少是安全的。我们需要一些时间来改进细节，除了安全之外，还要解决舒适性的问题，这与自动驾驶系统架构的变化有关。我确实知道特斯拉真实世界人工智能的路线图，以及新的详细数据，因为我负责这个项目，我花了很多时间和团队一起深入研究我们正在做什么来改善真实世界的人工智能。正如我所说，这辆车最终会让人感觉像是有生命的生物，这是我们在AI4之前甚至AI5的目标。
Yeah, the road map is super exhilarating like it's like so waiting so much like at least all the stuff we are working on in terms of like what we shift to customers versus robot taxi. It's more mostly the same obviously customers have somewhat features like you know they can choose the car wants to park in a spot or drive version thing that which is not super relevant for robot taxi, but there's no really like few minotions like those ones but majority of the algorithms. and architecture everything is the same between those two platforms.
是的，这个路线图真的让人非常兴奋。就像我们在客户和机器人出租车之间做出的那些转换。大多数情况下，两者是相同的，虽然客户有一些功能选择，比如让车停车或者使用某种驾驶版本，这些对机器人出租车不太重要，但其实这些只是很少的例外。总体上来说，这两者的算法和架构基本上都是一样的。
Yeah, but that's a mission earlier like we'll be adding reasoning to, I don't know, I show you, is that like reasoning in like 14.3 maybe 14.4 something like that? Yeah, or by another scene for sure. Yeah, so with reasoning it's literally going to think about which parking spot to pick at this, so it's going to say this is the entrance but actually probably there's not a parking spot right at the entrance if it's a fool, you know if the if the parking light is fairly full the probability of an open parking spot right at the entrance is very low.
好的，但是这是一个更早的任务，我们会添加一些推理能力，我不知道，我跟你说，是在14.3还是可能14.4版本中？或者在另一个版本肯定会有。加入推理功能后，它会实际考虑选择哪个停车位。例如，它会告诉你这是入口，但如果停车场相当满的话，在入口处有空的停车位的可能性很低。
But actually what a little simply do is drop you off at the entrance of the store and then go find a parking spot. But it's going to get very smart about figuring out a parking spot. It's going to spot figure out it's going to spot empty spots much better than human. It's got 360 degree vision and it's going to yeah like I said just it's going to use reasoning to solve things. I'm putting that all in the computer that has the A4 is the actual challenge that's what the team is working on because obviously you can do reasoning on the server that takes whatever but then in car you need to make real time decisions.
实际上，一个小小的变化就是它会在商店入口处放下你，然后去找停车位。但它会非常聪明地找到停车位，比人类更好地识别空位。它有 360 度的视野，并会像我说的那样使用推理来解决问题。要把这一切放在计算机中，即 A4 的实际挑战，这是团队正在努力的事情。因为显然，你可以在服务器上进行推理，花多少时间都可以，但在车里需要实时做出决定。
So putting on the computer that's in the car that's the challenge. Yeah that's why I say like I'm pretty good understanding of like AI you know the sort of the giant model level with GROC and with with HEAZAN. Like I'm confident in saying that HEAZAN has the HEAZAN AI has the highest intelligence density when you look at the intelligence per gigabyte I think like HEAZAN AI is probably an order of magnitude better than anyone else and it doesn't have any choice because that AI has got a fit in the AI for a computer.
所以把电脑安装在车上是一个挑战。这就是为什么我说我对人工智能有相当好的理解，尤其是在GROC和HEAZAN的巨型模型层面上。我有信心地说，HEAZAN的人工智能在智力密度方面是最高的，如果你按每千兆字节的智力来看，HEAZAN的人工智能可能比其他任何都好一个数量级，并且它没有选择，因为那个AI必须能适应车载电脑的需求。
But the discipline of having that level of AI intelligence density will pay great dividends when you go to something that has an order of magnitude, order of magnitude and more capability like AI5. Now you have that same intelligence density but you got 10 times more capability in the computer. Great. The next question will come from Colin at Oppenheimer. Colin please unmute yourself when you're ready. I'll go ahead and unmute yourself please.
但是，当你掌握了那种程度的人工智能密度时，它会带来巨大的好处，特别是当你面对像AI5这样能力提高一个数量级甚至更多的技术时。现在，你拥有相同的智能密度，但计算机的能力提升了十倍。这是个很好的进步。接下来的问题来自Oppenheimer的Colin。Colin，当你准备好时请取消静音。请自行取消静音。
Thanks so much guys. You know I appreciate you bringing up the the challenges of hand-dexterity and humanoid you know along with the complexity of the supply chain and the vertical integration you guys are pursuing. Yeah I'm just trying to harmonize the the timeline for the start of production you know next year with the current state of the supply chain and what sounds like a fair amount of work remain on the dexterity before you can really freeze the hardware design and start to scale up production.
非常感谢大家。你们提到手部灵活性和人形机器人带来的挑战，以及供应链的复杂性和你们正在推进的垂直整合，我对此非常感激。是这样的，我想协调一下明年开始生产的时间表，与目前供应链的现状进行整合。听起来，在真正确定硬件设计并开始扩大生产之前，手部灵活性方面还有很多工作要完成。
Well the hardware design will actually not actually be frozen even through startup production. There will be continued iteration because a bunch of the things that you discover are very difficult to make you only find that pretty late in the game. So we'll be doing rolling changes up for the optimist design even after startup production. But I do think that the you know the new hand is an incredible piece of engineering and you know that's you know we'll actually we'll have a production intent prototype ready to show off in you know Q1 probably February or March and then we're yeah we're gonna be building a you know million unit optimist production line you know hopefully with the production start towards that next year.
硬件设计实际上在初始生产阶段也不会完全固定。我们会继续进行迭代，因为有很多难以制造的问题往往是在项目后期才发现。所以即使在初始生产之后，我们也会对Optimist设计进行持续改进。不过，我确实认为新的手部设计是一项了不起的工程成果。我们计划在第一季度，大概二月或三月时，展示一款接近量产的原型。我们的目标是建立一条年产百万单位的Optimist生产线，希望能在明年开始投入生产。
But that that production ramp will take a while to get to an annualized rate of a million because it's going to move as fast as the the slowest dumbest least lucky thing out of 10,000 unique items. But it will get to a million units and then ultimately you know we'll do optimists for that'll be you know 10 million units optimists five maybe 50 or 100 million units. I mean it's really pretty nutty.
但是，要达到年产百万台的目标，生产提升需要一些时间，因为进展速度会受到10,000个独特项目中最慢、最不顺利的因素限制。不过，我们终究会达到年产百万台的目标。之后，我们会生产Optimus，这样可能会有1,000万台，Optimus Five可能会有5,000万甚至1亿台。我是说，这真是非常疯狂。
Alrighty that is unfortunately all the time we have for Q&A today. Before we conclude though Bebob has some closing remarks. Thanks Tyrus. I want to take the time to talk about an extremely important word which is being held on November 6th. The meeting will shape the future of Tesla and we are asking you as our shareholders to support Elon's leadership through the two compensation proposals and the re-election of Ira, Kathleen and Joe to the board.
好的，很遗憾今天的问答环节时间已经结束。不过在结束之前，Bebob有一些总结发言。谢谢你，Tyrus。我想要花一些时间来谈论一个非常重要的会议，该会议将在11月6日举行。这次会议将决定特斯拉的未来，我们希望作为股东的你们能够支持Elon的领导，并支持通过两个薪酬提案以及Ira、Kathleen和Joe再次当选为董事会成员。
Note that it is a team support and here at Tesla the board is an integral part of the winning team. Shareholders are at the center of everything we do at Tesla and a special committee has laid out compensation package. Like Elon said we don't even want to call it a compensation package. Yeah it's not at the point is I just like it needs to be enough voting control to give a strong influence but not not so much that I can't be fired if I go insane. But you know and I think that's sort of numbers in the mid 20s approximately.
请注意，这是一种团队支持，而在特斯拉，董事会是获胜团队的重要组成部分。股东是特斯拉一切工作的核心，一个特别委员会已经制定了薪酬方案。正如埃隆所说，我们甚至不想称其为薪酬方案。重点是需要有足够的投票权来施加强有力的影响，但又不能多到以至于即使我疯了也无法被解雇。我认为大致而言，这个比例约在20%到30%之间。
As a company that has already gone public there's no, that we've investigated every possible way to how do you achieve increased voting control without is there some way to have like a sub voting stock but there really is there is no way to have a sub voting stock after you've gone public. But for example Google, Metta, many other companies have this but they had they had it before they went public and so it sort of gets I guess grandfathered in. Tesla does not have that.
作为一家已经上市的公司，我们已经调查了所有可能的方法来实现增加投票控制权的目标。是否可以拥有类似于次级投票权的股票呢？但实际上，在公司上市之后，是无法拥有次级投票权的。然而，例如，谷歌和Meta（脸书）等许多公司在上市之前就已经设立了这样的机制，所以它们这种安排可以继续沿用。特斯拉没有这种机制。
So it's just like I said I just don't feel comfortable voting robot army here and not and then you know being ousted because of some ass-9 recommendations from ISS and glass Lewis who have no freaking clue. I mean those guys are corporate terrorists and the problem yeah so let me like explain like the core problem here is that so many of the index funds the passive funds vote along the lines of whatever glass Lewis and ISS recommend.
所以，就像我说的，我只是不太愿意在这里投票支持机器人军团，因为我担心会因为 ISS 和 Glass Lewis 的一些无稽之谈的建议而被排挤。我是说，那些家伙就像公司里的恐怖分子，问题在于很多指数基金和被动基金都是按 Glass Lewis 和 ISS 的建议来投票的。
Now they've made many terrible recommendations in the past that if those recommendations have been followed would have been extremely destructive to the future of the company. But if you got passive funds that essentially defer responsibility for the vote to glass Lewis and ISS then you can have extremely disastrous consequences for a publicly traded company if too much of the publicly traded company is controlled by index funds. It's de facto controlled by glass Lewis and ISS.
他们过去曾提出过许多糟糕的建议，如果采纳这些建议，会对公司的未来造成极大破坏。但是，如果被动型基金将投票责任实际交给了Glass Lewis和ISS，那么这对上市公司来说可能会产生极其灾难性的后果。因为如果上市公司过多地被指数基金控制，那实际上就等于被Glass Lewis和ISS控制了。
This is a fundamental problem for corporate governance because they're not voting along the lines that are actually good for shareholders. That's that's the big issue I mean that's where it comes down to ISS glass Lewis corporate terrorism. Yeah and I would say you know especially committed to an amazing job in constructing this plan for the benefit of the shareholders.
这是一个公司治理的基本问题，因为他们的投票方式并没有真正代表股东的最佳利益。这就是主要的问题所在，也就是为什么与ISS和Glass Lewis等顾问公司相关的企业治理上存在问题。我要说的是，他们在为股东利益设计这项计划方面，确实付出了巨大的努力。
There is nothing which gets passed on till the time shareholders make substantial returns. So that's why you know in the end I would say I would urge you to not only vote on the plan but also vote on all the three directors because of the exception, knowledge and experience and literally you know we at Tesla work with these directors day in day out when there is not even a single day that one of the directors I haven't spoken to or one of my colleague hasn't spoken to and we're the even the directors out here are not just reading out of you know powerpoint presentations.
在股东获得可观回报之前，没有任何东西会传递下去。因此，我想说的最终还是希望您不仅投票支持这个计划，也投票支持所有三位董事，因为他们拥有卓越的知识和经验。可以说，在特斯拉，我们每天都与这些董事合作，没有一天我或者我的同事不跟其中一位董事交流的。这里的董事们不仅仅是看着幻灯片说话而已。
They're actually working with us day in day out. So again I just urge you guys as shareholders to vote along the board's recommendation. Thank you guys. Great thank you bebob we appreciate everyone's questions today and we look forward to show them to you next quarter. Thank you very much and goodbye.
他们实际上每天都和我们一起工作。所以我再次敦促各位作为股东按照董事会的建议投票。谢谢大家。非常感谢你，bebob，我们感谢今天所有人的提问，并期待在下个季度向大家展示。非常感谢，再见。
All right hey everybody let me know if you can hear me now hopefully how it goes good and we'll just chat about the call for a little bit if that's too loud let me know as well. Can you hear me now excellent sounds good. All right yeah so let's go through some of the notes from the call here. I think pretty interesting I mean some some parts that were a little repetitive to stuff that we've heard talked about many times right which is pretty normal for these calls these days.
好的，大家好，让我知道你们现在能不能听到我的声音，希望一切正常。我们简单聊一下这次电话会议，如果声音太大也请告诉我。你们现在能听到吗？太好了，听起来不错。好的，那么我们来看看这次会议的一些笔记。我觉得挺有趣的，不过有些部分有点重复了我们以前多次讨论的内容，不过现在这样的电话会议中出现这样的情况也很正常。
So if I looked forward to hitting your points in there it's just because it's stuff we've heard right but there's some value sometimes to repeating some of those things obviously not everyone listens to every single minute of every single earnings call for the last 10 years but for those of us that have it's yeah some of it we've heard before but I think in general there were some really interesting things here I'll just kind of scroll back through just real quick on the vote we should probably talk about this a little bit before it's just really important to vote for your shares right.
因此，如果我期待在你的观点中有所触及，那只是因为这些内容我们之前听过。不过，有时候重复这些东西有一定的价值。显然，并不是每个人都会听过去十年里每一次财报电话会议的每一分钟。但对于我们这些听过的人来说，是的，有些内容我们之前听过。尽管如此，我认为总体上这里有一些非常有趣的东西。让我快速回顾一下关于投票的话题，在这之前我们可能需要稍微讨论一下。为你的股份投票确实非常重要。
I think Elon described the issue well in terms of just the ownership. First, first of all, the amount of assets that are now in these sort of passive funds compared to, you know, pretty much anytime ever is a lot higher. The market in general is a lot more concentrated in these large passive funds, and if those funds just vote along these recommendations from these, you know, advisors or whomever, then it kind of creates a situation where those advisors really have an outsized influence on directions of companies.
我认为埃隆很好地描述了这个问题，特别是关于所有权的问题。首先，目前被动基金所持有的资产数量比以往任何时候都要多得多。整个市场相比之下，更多地集中在这些大型被动基金中。如果这些基金只是按照顾问或其他人的建议进行投票，那么这种情况可能会导致这些顾问对公司方向产生过大的影响。
Specifically for Tesla, had Tesla followed recommendations of people like that, advisors like that, or whoever the case may be, I don't think Tesla would be in the position that it is in now. This is one of the things that's so incredibly frustrating about the Delaware thing with Elon's 2018 compensation plan. I mean, I was a shareholder then, and I was strongly in favor of it. It was a 100% at-risk compensation, and the milestones to achieve that were, you know, you put those in front of people, and they would like laugh at them.
专门针对特斯拉来说，如果特斯拉按照那些建议者或顾问的意见去做，我认为特斯拉不会有现在的成就。这就是为什么对 Elon 2018 年薪酬计划在特拉华州的争议让我感到非常沮丧的原因之一。那个时候我是特斯拉的股东，而且我非常支持这个计划。这个计划的薪酬完全是有风险的，必须达到的目标高得让人觉得好笑。
It's like you're going to grow Tesla to be like this 100 billion dollar plus, like largest automaker in the world? Like you guys are selling what, 200,000 cars a year, not even making any money yet? That was kind of what the plan that they were putting in place, and if not achieved, no compensation. Great, that super well lines with shareholders. We saw what happened; everyone that was holding Tesla stock did incredibly well. Elon did incredible. Well, everyone is happy and then there's like this guy that's used with nine shares and it's like ruins it for everybody. It's absurd. So that's a little bit different situation, but it just goes to show when there's like this overly influential system or whatever in place that things like this can go wrong.
这就像是说，你们打算把特斯拉发展成一个价值超过1000亿美元的公司，像世界上最大的汽车制造商一样？你们一年卖20万辆车，甚至还没开始赚钱？这就是他们制定计划时的想法，如果没有实现，就没有补偿。这非常符合股东的利益。我们看到了结果，持有特斯拉股票的人都赚得盆满钵满。埃隆也表现得极为出色。大家都很高兴，但是却有一个持有9股的人出来破坏了这一切，这很荒谬。这虽然是一个有点不同的情况，但它确实表明了当有一个过于强势的体系或什么在发挥作用时，事情可能会出错。
And that's why Elon's like concerned about his level of ownership; it's just directly related to those types of things of when that influences shifted out of control, then bad things can happen to the company and to the direction of the company. I think that you only think the company would be a very bad thing to have into the company. So yeah, I think just in general it's very important to vote. There are sometimes votes that a non-vote, like if you just forget to or you don't go take the time to do it, whatever, you don't think it's important, those don't count in favor of the proposal and sometimes the proposal needs a certain number of votes, so you're effectively voting no by not voting.
这就是为什么埃隆会担心他对公司的持股比例；因为当这种影响失控时，直接相关的事情就会发生，可能对公司和公司的发展方向产生不良影响。我觉得，公司被一些不好的事情影响会是非常糟糕的。所以，总的来说，投票是非常重要的。有时候如果你忘记投票或者没时间去，或者觉得不重要，那些不投的票实际上是不支持提案的，而有时提案需要一定数量的支持票，所以不投票其实就是在投反对票。
Some other times it will, depending on how you own your shares and the structure of that ownership, it will defer if you do not vote into someone else being able to vote your shares. So it's really important to do that. I would just echo those comments you know alongside what vibe outside there. So anyway, that being set aside, let's go ahead and just look through again some of these notes here. There was one that I bolded because I just kind of wanted to start with that. It's super interesting because fst is, you know, pretty much the most important thing right now; obviously, optimist maybe come that in the future, but I think just for right now that's really what it's about when do we get to unsupervised fst at scale.
有时候，这将取决于您持有股票的方式以及持有结构的不同。如果您不投票给他人代为行使投票权，该投票可能会被推迟。因此，确保自己参与投票是非常重要的。我只是想重复一下这些评论，与外界的观点一致。所以，抛开这些不谈，我们再来看一下这里的一些记录。我加粗了一处，因为我想从这里开始讨论。这非常有趣，因为目前，最重要的事情就是fst（全自动化系统）；未来，或许乐观者的观点会有所改变，但我认为眼下最关键的问题是我们何时能够在大规模上实现无监督的fst。
Right? Version 14, like I said earlier today, I haven't had a chance to drive with it much yet. Unfortunately, just like the timing of the releases and things with my schedule hasn't worked out well. But so far, the few miles that I put on version 14 have been awesome. As they said, these first releases definitely prioritize safety over comfort, so I have not been surprised with like the brake stabbing or things like that, and to me it doesn't like bother me. I just am making sure that I'm paying attention so I don't get re-rendered or something like that. I think that's the risk there, but the vehicle is also looking behind it too. I think people don't realize that or take that into consideration a lot.
好的？今天早些时候我提到过，第14版我还没有太多机会进行驾驶体验。不巧的是，这次更新的发布时间和我的日程安排有些不合适。不过，到目前为止，我在第14版本上行驶的几英里都非常棒。正如他们所说，这些初版很明显更注重安全而不是舒适性，因此我对急刹车之类的情况并不感到惊讶，对我来说，这并不困扰我。我只是确保自己一直注意着，以免被追尾之类的。我觉得这是个风险，不过车辆也在观察后方。我认为很多人没有意识到这一点，也没把它考虑进去。
If there were a car that was approaching from, you know, behind in a way that might rear on the vehicle, it could probably react to that and make an adjustment as needed. So that's something that's forgotten about. That's a little bit of an inside point being version 14 has been more capable. It's able to do more things than version 13 was; for me, version 13 was already phenomenal as I've talked about before. So it's incredibly exciting to see that even in just the last week since 14.1.1 got released and we're now 14.1.3, even just those, you know, seven days or whatever it's been.
如果有一辆车从后面接近，有可能撞到这辆车，它可能会对此做出反应并根据需要进行调整。这一点常常被忽视。这是一点内部的信息，版本14具有更强的能力，能够做比版本13更多的事情。对我来说，版本13已经很出色了，如我之前所述。因此，看到在14.1.1版发布后的短短一周内，我们已经到了14.1.3版，这种进步让人非常兴奋。
The dials to tune it in to be more comfortable have definitely been tweaked. It's definitely more comfortable, it's definitely smoother, and I think that'll just continue. Now, the thing that I bolted here: they'll be adding reasoning to the car. So this was something that was like a huge unlock for, you know, the lllm space was when reasoning was introduced into these models, into how they were operating. That unlocked a lot more intelligence from these models that just wasn't there before. It was really kind of a step change with some, you know, cons or whatever, some downsides of introducing that, primarily the just the amount of time that it takes, the amount of energy that it takes, the cost of it, all of those sorts of things.
调整旋钮以提升舒适度的改进肯定已经完成。显然，现在的舒适度和顺畅度都有所提升，而且这种趋势会继续下去。我在这里提到的一点是：他们将为汽车增加推理能力。这就像是在大型语言模型（LLM）领域的一个重要突破，因为引入推理能力后，这些模型在操作方式上变得更加智能。这确实带来了显著的改变，当然也有一些缺点，比如时间、能量和成本的增加等。
Our problems that become introduced when you start talking about reasoning, that's why I showed said that like the challenge here is just making this operate on AI4, and this is why Tesla spends so much time talking about intelligence density. It's something that they don't get credit for and it's actually super frustrating to me because I see in the chat like I should probably shouldn't even just read the chat, but like I see people talking about like, oh, this is so dumb, like Elon's making all these promises. And first of all, that's just frustrating because like, yeah, Elon says a lot of stuff about what's gonna happen in the future; his hit rate's pretty good, so I would listen to what he says about what's happening in the future and not just write it off because like sometimes he's wrong it's a lot more difficult to like be sometimes right about precisely what's gonna happen in the future and be able to capitalize on it to the extent of billions of dollars that's a little bit harder than occasionally being wrong so just set that as your context.
当你开始讨论推理时，我们遇到了一些问题，所以我才说过这里的挑战是在AI4上让这个系统运行，这也是为什么特斯拉花这么多时间讨论“智能密度”。这一点常常没有得到应有的关注，这让我感到非常沮丧，因为在聊天中我看到很多人说：“哦，这太愚蠢了，埃隆在做这些承诺。” 这让我感到很无奈，因为虽然埃隆关于未来的预测有很多，但他的命中率相当不错。所以我会仔细听听他对未来的看法，而不是因为他有时会错就轻易否定他。准确地预测未来的发展并从中获利数十亿美元，这比偶尔犯错要困难得多。请以这样的角度去理解。
Um but anyway the point being like they talk about this in information density intelligence density because it is critically important in making real world AI and maybe it doesn't look that impressive because of what happens outside of real world AI like all these advancements that we're seeing in AI in general and all all that we hear about it we're just inundated with like all this news and all this progress lately most of that stuff is relying on like massive massive data centers doing tons and tons of compute really really expensive that you know those the cost is coming down per performance over time but like it's just a different thing than what Tesla is doing it's a different problem it's it's using similar technology but it's just applying it very very differently and I don't think people appreciate that I don't think that Tesla gets the credit that they deserve to get for their capabilities in real world real world AI.
嗯，总之重点是，他们谈论信息密度和智能密度，因为这在实现真实世界的人工智能中至关重要。也许这些在真实世界人工智能中的表现并不那么引人注目，因为在真实世界之外的人工智能技术进步让人眼花缭乱，我们最近听到的关于人工智能的新闻和进展非常多。这些大多数都是依赖于庞大的数据中心，进行大量的计算，成本非常高。虽然随着时间的推移，每单位性能的成本在下降，但这与特斯拉正在做的事情是不同的问题。它们使用的是类似的技术，但应用方式却非常不同。我认为人们并没有真正意识到特斯拉在真实世界人工智能领域的能力，也没有给予特斯拉应有的认可。
And Elon you know every single conference call he talks about it to the point where it gets like I roll on using because it's like yeah like we're still on unsupervised FSD like great it was like what is this doing for us it's getting us it's getting better and when you talk about going another step change in AI5 with 10 times the compute the point that Elon made there was that once you have that level of compute available to you you can really really realize how important that intelligent density is because right now it's doing things that are like we've kind of been promised this for a long time right like unsupervised FSD we've kind of had like autopilot we've had FSD for you know years now so it's kind of like yeah yeah all right sounds sounds nice if you 10x that and you're able to capitalize fully on that it becomes something like unrecognizable like that's how Elon is looking at it that's how he's seeing this development go and the roadmap go yes he's been off on timing in the past but the thesis that this is going to be better than people unquestionably I think is still on track and I think you know we're very close to reaching that and probably happens with hardware 4 and if not it's I like can't fathom that it wouldn't happen with hardware 5 or with AI5 so I just think that's really important.
埃隆，你知道的，每次电话会议他都会谈到这个问题，这种反复让人忍不住翻白眼，因为他总是说我们仍在进行无人监督的全自动驾驶（FSD），听起来不错，但我们会想这对我们有什么好处吗？虽然它确实在不断改善。当你谈到在人工智能方面实现另一个飞跃，通过10倍的计算能力时，埃隆指出，一旦你拥有了那种级别的计算能力，你真的能意识到智能密度的重要性。因为现在它做的事情就像是我们以前被承诺的那样很久了，比如无人监督的FSD，我们已经有驾驶辅助和FSD很多年了，所以有点像“好吧，感觉不错。”如果你将这种能力提升10倍，并完全加以利用，它将变得不可识别——这就是埃隆看待它、看待这个发展的方式以及未来的规划。尽管他过去在时间上的预测并不总是准确，但认为它将比人类表现得更好这个观点我认为仍然有效。我觉得我们很接近实现这一点，可能会在硬件4上发生，如果不是，那么我难以想象它不会在硬件5或者AI5上实现。我认为这一点非常重要。
Back to the reasoning points this is really cool because as we talked about it's unlocks capabilities that just it weren't currently possible with non-reasoning models that'll be the same thing applied to the car we'll do things that it could not have done without reasoning I think the the cost of that will be you know processing time so it's going to be situations where it's needing some time to think but there are tons of times like that in the car I'm thinking about like you know no turn right on reds I thought I think I saw Dirty Tesla posted that there was a version 14.1.3 maybe turn right on red that's something that you know this is just off the top of my head so maybe it's a stupid comment but that's something to me that it seems like a reasoning model could potentially assist with because it's just going to have a little bit it's going to be looking at things in a multitude of different ways rather than just like one streamlined stream of consciousness I guess it's probably a poor way to put it but hopefully that makes sense.
回到推理的要点，这真的很酷，因为正如我们所讨论的，它解锁了非推理模型所无法实现的功能。这同样适用于汽车，我们会让汽车完成那些如果没有推理能力就无法实现的事情。我认为代价可能是处理时间，因此在某些情况下会需要一些时间来“思考”。不过，在驾驶汽车时，这种情况经常发生。比如说，“在红灯不能右转”这样的情况，我记得Dirty Tesla曾提到过有一个版本14.1.3也许支持红灯右转。虽然这只是我随口想到的，可能不太恰当，但对我来说，这似乎是一个推理模型能够帮助解决的场景，因为它会从多种不同角度来观察问题，而不是只沿着一条固定的思维路线。这样说可能不太准确，但希望你能理解我的意思。
The analogy that they gave is that like it'll be able to assess parking environments a lot better which that's again a case where it's not like a time constraints necessarily of like this needs to happen in milliseconds instead it could happen in you know a tenth of a second or a half of a second or whatever and be totally fine or even you know a couple of seconds so that that whole point that about the reasoning model being added to the car sounds like version 14.3 version 14.4 I think you said before the end of the year we should probably just double check that quick it's just it's incredibly exciting. because it's another one of those things on their roadmap that they're talking about here that will again make this a more capable robust system that can do more things that's more impressive that feels a lot closer to the end state vision that we're all you know looking forward to so I'm excited about that that's I mean that that alone from the call to me is enough to be like this call was awesome I'm super excited.
他们打了个比方，说新的系统能更好地评估停车环境。其实在这种情况下，并不需要在毫秒级别完成操作，可能只需要几分之一秒、半秒，甚至几秒钟都完全没问题。引入这种推理模型进汽车的消息听起来像是版本14.3或14.4的更新。据说在今年年底之前就能实现，我们可能要尽快确认一下。这个消息真的让人非常兴奋，因为这是他们路线图上的另一个重要内容，将使系统更强大、更有能力，并且更加令人印象深刻，看起来离我们期待的最终目标又近了一步。所以我对此感到非常期待，这次会议对我来说非常棒，我超级兴奋。
Now that being said even the stuff I think we've heard a little bit more about AI5 in the past so like some of that stuff especially Elon talked at the all in summit about just the advancements and cheer capability from AI5 as a customer maybe people don't like hearing that you know hardware three hardware four hardware five it's like man now I'm gonna get left behind again I understand that perspective too as an investor it should still be very exciting to hear I think this is more of an investment focused group so I'm both I think a lot of us are both you've always got a little bit mixed feelings but for me I just want this stuff to work like if we get left behind I'm I'm okay with that I'll be a little disappointed I'll probably then upgrade I think Tesla will offer paths to do that and this is all premature I think I think things are gonna be great on hardware hardware four but the point being is that we're already I feel like so close on hardware four we're not that far away from hardware five which is so much more capable plus all these other things that they you know they talk a little bit about and they've shared on different conference calls about just like these vectors of improvement you know for various ways with with AI and with FSD like all of those things still exist and are still gonna happen and so you know we're gonna reap the rewards of those as well but it's just like mind blowing to me to sit here see this progress over the last two to three years and see this roadmap see the things that Elon's talking about here and being like yeah like man just another day at Tesla like just over promising again it's like it's really stupid to say that to me so if you're one of the people in the comments that said that I'm sorry if just that that's just a bad point.
现在来说，尽管我们过去对AI5了解得更多了一些，比如在全员峰会上，Elon特别提到了AI5在进步及能力上的提升。作为用户，有些人可能不愿听到硬件三、硬件四、硬件五这些话，觉得自己又要被淘汰了，我也理解这种观点。但作为投资者，应该感到兴奋，我认为这更偏向投资者的看法。我们很多人都是投资者和用户的双重身份，所以感受会有些复杂。我个人只是希望这些东西能如期运作，即便被淘汰，我也能接受，稍微失望一下可能就会升级了，我相信特斯拉会提供升级的途径。不过现在讨论这些还为时过早。我认为硬件四已经很接近成熟了，离硬件五也不远，而它的能力更强大。此外，他们在不同的电话会议中提到的一些提升方向，这些或多或少都会实现，我们也将从中受益。过去两到三年的进展让我感到震撼，看着这条路线图，听Elon谈论这些，让我觉得在特斯拉就像日常一样不断在给出新的承诺，尽管某些批评在我看来是不太有道理的。如果你在评论中提到过这些观点，抱歉，我只是觉得那是不太好的看法。
All right well that's a good rant there um let's see what else do we have in the notes uh shareholder stuff optimist so yeah seems like everything that we've seen so far is like optimist version two and a half which makes sense I think that's kind of what everyone assumed um so it sounds like February or March probably for uh version three sort of demo or whatever the case may be there um yeah we're not getting far away from that so I mean could be delayed one one shock me but uh just nice to see them feeling I think more confident in where they're at on optimist at the moment robo taxi uh I feel like we were close to getting more information we got to figure out these questions man these are these are brutal and I'm sorry if you're out the question because I like a lot of these questions the intent is good the information we're trying to get is good not all of them uh like some of the questions that were like product based obviously they can't answer uh I think there was one of like are you going to make a cyber truck SUV you know we can talk about that too but anyway with these questions as I've said many times in the past you got to be specific you can't ask seven questions in one question they're just gonna pick out the easiest one or the last one or just whichever one pops in their head first they're not gonna like sit there and write down all of your questions and then go back to them even though they're already written there they could just read them but they're not going to do that uh they've never done that you got to be specific with your questions so please try to do that in the future if whoever is watching whatever it's not gonna make any difference all right unfortunately they don't let they don't let us influence those anymore uh I do think they've gone downhill.
好的，那是个不错的抱怨。让我们看看笔记里还有什么，关于股东的事情，乐观者，所以，目前看起来我们看到的一切似乎是“乐观者”版本2.5，这在我看来是合理的，我想这也是大家的想法。所以，听说可能在二月或三月会有版本三的演示之类的，无论是什么，离那也不远了。当然，可能会有延误，这也不会让我感到意外，但很高兴看到他们对目前“乐观者”的发展更有信心。
关于机器人出租车，我觉得快要有更多信息公布了，不过我们得先搞清楚这些问题，这是残酷的。如果你的问题没被采纳，我很抱歉，因为我喜欢这些问题，大多数问题的意图都是好的，试图获取的信息也是好的。当然，并不是所有的问题都是这样，比如某些基于产品的问题，显然他们无法回答。
比如，有个问题是“你们会制造一辆Cybertruck的SUV吗？”，我们也可以聊这个。但如我过去多次说过的，对于这些问题，你必须要具体。不能一个问题里问七个问题，他们只会挑最简单的，或者最后一个，或者他们想起的第一个来回答。他们不会坐下记录所有问题然后回去逐一回答，尽管问题已经写在那里，他们可以直接读，但他们不会这样做。他们从来没有这样做过。所以请在未来尽量具体地提问。不幸的是，他们不再让我们影响这些了，我确实觉得质量有所下降。
All right well anyway uh safety driver removal so it still sounds like end of the year but Elon did say like maybe a couple or a few months so I'm not putting too much weight in that um I think they're right to be cautious I think all of us wish that we were further along and these cars were just like no one in no one in them at this point um but like you on said it's it's smart to be cautious like until until it's unquestionable Tesla shouldn't do it and there's not really much point to do it and by do it I mean like really like launch on supervised FSD um Tesla's in the leadership position I don't really think anyone else is anywhere competitive the only things that ever come up for me in terms of competition are like Waymo and for a laundry list of reasons I don't think that's really an important competitor and then China and I don't I wish I had a better understanding of like how it truly is in China and I'm hopefully working on better understanding that as time goes by but for me with any Elon company that's kind of always the open question is just like what's going on going on with China outside of there like the competition coast seems pretty clear so that's how I view the you know everything here with autonomy too.
好的，不管怎样，关于移除安全驾驶员这件事，目前听起来可能会在年底实现，但埃隆也提到可能要再等几个月，所以我并没有太过期待。我觉得他们谨慎是对的，我们都希望这项技术能更早成熟，到达一个无需司机的阶段。但正如埃隆所说，小心谨慎是明智的选择，直到毫无疑问的时候，特斯拉才应该推出这个功能。在没有充分准备之前没有太多意义去做这件事，而我所说的“做这件事”是指真的推出无人监管的全自动驾驶（FSD）。特斯拉目前处于领先地位，我认为没有其他公司能真正竞争。唯一能算作竞争对手的可能是Waymo，但由于各种原因，我不认为它是一个重要的竞争者。还有就是中国，我希望自己能更好地了解那里的情况，并且希望随着时间的推移能更深入地了解。在与任何埃隆旗下公司的发展中，中国的动态一直是一个公开的问题，在那之外，竞争似乎相对明朗。这就是我对自动驾驶领域现状的看法。
So if you do it too early and you're not like if you're not to that point of this is unquestionable of like we're ready to do this then the risk reward is not worth it you can continue to scale in the exact same way as you would be doing even if there was no person in that car uh and they're doing that they're getting all the regulations in place and all the markets ready to go which is what they would be doing even if there was not a person in those cars so that's not slowing them down at the moment it would be something that we would love to see it would be a great sign of progress but that's not a good reason to do it the good reason to do it is that it's time it's unquestionable.
所以，如果你过早去做，当你还没有达到那种毫无疑问的准备好去做的时候，风险和回报是不成正比的。即使车里没有人，你依然可以以同样的方式继续扩大规模。他们正在这样做，正在把所有的法规和市场准备就绪，这也是即使车里没有人时他们仍然会做的事情，因此这并没有让他们在目前阶段受到拖延。看到这种情况我们会很高兴，这是进步的好兆头，但这不是去做它的一个好理由。真正去做的好理由是时机成熟，并且是毫无疑问的准备好了。
So when that does happen it's going to be an awesome very exciting very encouraging milestone uh but we shouldn't Tesla shouldn't feel pressured to do that from a competitive sense or from like a shareholder sense the pressure should just come from you know this is too good to not do it at this point that's where the pressure needs to come from and I think they're probably not too far off from that and I think Tesla probably feels some of that right now of like by not doing this we're potentially putting lives at risk um which is I mean that's a real thing so and a real thing that Tesla you know in my view cares about so I think that that exists and I think that'll you know push them as fast as they need to be pushed um that's that's kind of my my view on that again I'm looking forward to that very much so hopefully it'll happen soon.
所以，当那一刻真正到来时，那将是一个非常令人振奋和鼓舞的里程碑。但是，特斯拉不应该因为竞争压力或股东期望而感到被迫去做这件事。压力应该来自于——现在不做太可惜了，这是如此美好的事情。这才是压力的来源所在。我认为他们可能离实现这一点不远了。我也认为特斯拉现在可能已经感受到一些这样的压力：如果不这样做，可能会对生命安全造成风险。这确实是一个真实的问题，而且在我看来，特斯拉对此是关心的。我认为这种压力存在，并且会促使他们以必要的速度推进。我非常期待那一天的到来，希望这能尽快实现。
Uh Tesla XAI stuff I mean that's been talked about quite a long time now um Optimus so yeah version three I do you want to yeah this is the other thing in the comments people talk about like these other humanoid companies like again China open question outside of there I'm I'm just not seeing the competition I mean I know people like figure I have to bite my tongue on that a lot um um I mean that how how is figure gonna get the level of real world AI that Tesla has how are they gonna get the manufacturing scale and capability that Tesla has how are they gonna get the capital that Tesla has I just I don't I don't understand how you answer those questions like with a straight face um it's always possible that I could be surprised or I could be wrong or just completely be missing something or you know Tesla could fail and someone else just took a different path and it ended up working for them I just that's that's not what I'm seeing from those other companies.
嗯，特斯拉的XAI这些东西已经讨论了很久，关于Optimus也是如此。所以版本三，你要了解一下吗？在评论中，人们谈论其他类人型机器人的公司，比如中国的那些，这方面存在疑问。我目前没有看到有竞争的。我知道有人喜欢其他公司，我对此很多时候只能保持沉默。
我的意思是，Figure公司将如何达到特斯拉在真实世界AI方面的水平？他们将如何获得特斯拉所拥有的制造规模和能力？他们如何获得与特斯拉相当的资金？我真的不明白如何不偏不倚地回答这些问题。
当然，总是有可能我会感到惊讶或者我可能是错的，或者完全忽略了一些东西，或者特斯拉可能会失败，其他公司走了不同的道路并取得成功。但从我目前看到的其他公司来看，这种情况并没有出现。
Um you know it's one of those things that people would be on add on this on this call like production or you know prototypes or easy production is hard like times that by 10 for humanoids right like a demo video you know Tesla does them too all these other companies do them doesn't mean anything to me it's especially when there's like 60 cuts like all right you did five seconds of like holding addition or some water and then you cut cool um but anyway so that's kind of my point of view like again it's one of those things like people roll their eyes at when Elon likes it starts to explain why Tesla is better positioned but one of those things that I also think is like fundamentally very true so just because we've heard it a few times and this is gonna unfold over years and we're gonna hear it many many more times doesn't make it less true.
嗯，你知道，这就像是人们会在电话会议中讨论的事情，比如生产、原型或者简单生产是很难的，而对于类人机器人来说，这种难度要乘以10。演示视频呢，就像特斯拉和其他公司拍的视频，对我来说没什么意义，特别是当视频里有60个剪辑的时候，比如说：你展示了5秒钟的东西，比如拿着个加法、注满的水，然后就切了，酷，但是无论如何，这就是我的观点。再次强调，这有点像那些事情，当埃隆解释为什么特斯拉更有优势时，人们总是翻白眼，但我也确实认为这其中有很深刻的真理。所以，虽然我们已经听过几次，并且这可能需要多年才能兑现，而我们会听到很多很多次，但这并不意味着它不是真的。
Um AFI distributed inference I think that's fascinating I wish I was smarter to be able to understand the ramifications of that but to me my intuition says that that's a big deal and I think that's kind of like Elon's point to of just like hey there's a lot of resources to just be sitting there we can probably use those for something so that's I mean that's that's my point of view I guess I think that that's probably gonna end up being true uh parameter can we'll increase by an order of magnitude not yet in 14.1 so Elon had talked about this was kind of interesting he talked about this before like this order of magnitude increase and I'm wondering if he means or if he just means like it didn't happen in 14.1 because they didn't put that in their release notes which I thought was a little bit strange but they weren't as technical this time so I don't know I would have liked clarification on that would have been a good analyst follow a question instead of asking about an XAI versus Tesla again which the guy asked twice by the way he was just trying to like not be explicit the first time he asked so no one knew what he was asking.
在我看来，联邦分布式推理（AFI）真是个令人着迷的话题。我希望自己能更聪明一些，以便理解它的深远影响。我的直觉告诉我，这事意义重大。我觉得这也有点像Elon的观点，就是有很多资源闲置在那里，我们可能可以用它们来做些事情。这就是我的看法吧，我真的认为这可能会成真。而参数可以增长一个数量级，但在14.1版本中还没有实现。Elon之前谈论过这个问题，这让我觉得挺有趣的。他谈到了数量级的增长，我在想他是不是指这个，或者只是说因为他们在14.1的发布说明中没有提到，所以可能并没有实现。这点我感到有点奇怪，因为这次他们的技术细节讲得并不详细。我希望有人对此进行澄清，我觉得这本来是一个很好的分析师追问，而不是再度提问关于XAI对比特斯拉的问题。顺便说一下，那个人问了两次，他第一次问的时候试图不明确表达，所以没人知道他在问什么。
Uh let's see yeah killer app the we talked about this I think after the shareholder letter um people are thinking about autonomy wrong it's not just robot taxis like it's just such a silly way to look at it like robot taxis is a subset of the autonomous vehicle market um um that's why I think he said like that's what people want and if you can deliver that then they're gonna want to buy that car which I fully agree with uh cyber cybercaps are production Q2 2026 I don't think that's anything new Elon's now comfortable to expand what that means I don't know I think they have the footprint right now to be able to expand and it's also going to be this period of like yes we're comfortable expanding but in a transition period you got a you got to know exactly like where the demand is going to be in terms of like what cybercaps versus model Y versus model three versus like another form factor it's going to be a little bit of a figuring out period so I don't think they're going to want to like you know just start building two more gigafactories right now or anything like that didn't that didn't sound like it was the plan for for Elon anyway.
嗯，让我们看看，是的，我们之前讨论过这个"杀手级应用程序"的问题，我想是在股东信之后。人们对自动驾驶的看法是错误的，不应该仅仅局限于机器人出租车。把机器人出租车看作是自动驾驶市场的一个子集实在有些荒唐。因此，我认为他说得对，人们想要的是如果你能提供他们所需的服务，他们自然会想买这样的车，这我完全赞同。关于Cybercaps将在2026年第二季度投入生产，我认为这没有什么新鲜的消息。Elon现在可能对扩展这个概念感到自在，我不知道。我认为他们目前已经具备了扩展的能力，同时也正处于一个过渡期，在这个期间需要明确知道需求在哪里，比如Cybercaps与Model Y、Model 3或其他形式因素之间的需求比较。因此，我不认为他们现在会想要马上开建两个新的工厂，看起来这也不是Elon的计划。
Um but just like you know kind of keep that in mind as we're thinking about it uh semi so autonomy there sounds like they're just gonna need the the fleet data so I wouldn't expect anything on that for a couple of years other than just like we're gonna you know see it start to evolve in a similar way probably like on the cyber truck right like it'll eventually get there and then it's probably gonna be a little bit behind because there's not as much data um so I would just expect that with with semi um but eventually over time you know they'll get there and I think the iteration speed of FSD like comparing it to cyber truck I think from where we've been at the last year to where it'll be a year from now and a year from from then I think that that loop becomes shorter um to like catch semi up with with passenger vehicles.
嗯，但就像你知道的，在我们考虑这个问题时要记住这一点，关于自动驾驶，听起来他们需要舰队的数据，所以我预计在几年内不会有太大的进展。除了我们会看到它开始以类似的方式发展，可能就像在 Cybertruck 上一样，最终会实现，但可能会稍微落后一些，因为数据量不足。所以我预计半挂车的进展会是这样的。不过，随着时间推移，他们最终会达到目标。我认为全自动驾驶（FSD）的迭代速度会加快，就像与 Cybertruck 的对比一样，从过去一年到未来一年，以及再过一年的变化来看，我觉得这个迭代周期会缩短，以便让半挂车能够赶上乘用车。
Version 14 light for hardware three so I think a lot of people will be excited to hear that um again reiterating that they'll take care of hardware three owners um I think it was nice that they mentioned like hey we get it this is like you guys are the early adopters early supporters that meant a lot to us and we don't want to like take that for granted so as you know maybe a little bit of like uh I don't know whatever the phrase is for that like at any rate it's nice to see them say that um and hopefully that will carry through to their actions as well.
版本14的轻量版是针对硬件三设计的，我想很多人会对此感到兴奋。他们再次强调会照顾好硬件三的用户。很高兴他们提到，他们理解这些用户是早期采用者和支持者，对他们意义重大，因此不想辜负这种支持。看到他们这样说很不错，希望未来他们的行动也能体现这一点。
Uh so again we talked about this performance per watt stuff uh very important probably under appreciated probably under emphasized as much as they talk about it it is a critical critical advantage for Tesla. The Samsung and TSMC stuff was actually very interesting I was glad that Elon took the time to expand on all of that stuff um again it's probably a little bit beyond like my wheelhouse in terms of really understanding the nuance here but um I think the just the it's it reminds me of Dojo right which obviously hasn't really turned out to be what Tesla thought maybe it could be at one point in time which I think is understandable just because of how the AI market has developed since then it's really really change significantly since like the start of Dojo.
嗯，所以我们再次讨论了每瓦性能这个话题，非常重要，可能没有被足够重视和强调。虽然他们谈论了很多，但这确实是特斯拉的一个关键优势。关于三星和台积电的内容实际上也很有意思，我很高兴埃隆花时间详细讲解了这些。虽然这可能有点超出我的知识范围，无法完全理解其中的细微差别，但我觉得这让我想起了Dojo，这显然并没有成为特斯拉曾经预期的那样，这一点可以理解，因为自那时以来，AI市场已经发生了显著变化。
Um which was probably something that I don't know not many people could have foreseen that um not not saying that's the entire reason that Dojo's got the way that it has but um end-of-year-eight this reminds me of the thought process behind Dojo which is just because it hasn't turned into what maybe it could have been or maybe what the hope is worth that time I think Elon always expresses like hey this is no guarantee that this works but it's worth trying um which I appreciate you know his mentality on that this reminds me of that of this is something that's purpose built for like Tesla's needs which you can't just necessarily buy a chip off the shelf that is you know designed first principles to your exact use case and that's what Tesla is able to do because of the scale of their app because of the talent that they have uh and obviously this is a project that they worked really really hard on for a really long time and they're kind of nearing the point of end of like that design you know stage and they're obviously extremely excited about the results of that so I think that's important to recognize you know if you're you know looking at this from a shareholder perspective.
嗯，可能很少有人能预见到这种情况出现。我不是说这完全是Dojo发展的原因，但是在八年级末，这让我想起了Dojo背后的思考过程。尽管它没有变成我们想象中可能的样子，或者当时的期待，但我觉得埃隆·马斯克一直在表达这样的想法：这没有保证一定会成功，但值得尝试。我很欣赏他的这种心态。 这让我想到这是为特斯拉的需求量身定制的东西，而不能随便买一个现成的芯片来满足精确的使用需求。特斯拉能做到这点是因为他们应用的规模和拥有的人才，显然他们在这个项目上投入了很长时间和精力。现在他们几乎快要完成设计阶段了，并且对结果非常兴奋。我觉得从股东的角度看，需要认识到这一点。
Uh start-up stuff Optimus walking around hands are hard so begin production of Tesla Solar panel so they talked about that in the earnings report as well I kind of just assumed that that would be like a partnership with someone but kind of interesting we haven't really seen much from Tesla on the solar business for a long time they even dropped that line off of the earnings report probably a year or two ago now uh so interesting to see them kind of like put their toe back in the water there and we'll see you know if we hear more on that in the future um 250,000 miles in Austin more than a million in the Bay Area uh somebody could do the math on that I can't do it off the top of my head but interesting to just kind of see like how many miles per day that is and what that means per vehicle and things like that I'm sure someone will crack that quickly.
啊，关于创业公司的一些事情。Optimus正在到处走动，操作手部动作还是很困难，所以他们开始生产特斯拉太阳能板。他们在财报中也谈到了这个话题。我原以为这可能是与某个合作伙伴的合作项目，但很有趣的是我们已经很久没有从特斯拉的太阳能业务中看到什么动静了。他们甚至在大概一两年前的财报中取消了这方面的信息。所以，看到他们再次涉足这个领域还挺有意思的，我们也看看未来会不会有更多关于这方面的消息。另外，奥斯汀的行驶里程是25万英里，而湾区则超过一百万英里。有人可以计算一下我这算不出来的东西，比如平均每天每辆车的行驶里程之类的。我相信很快就会有人解决这个问题。
Uh eight to ten metro areas by end of year I've seen on X I don't know who posted it but I think there's just a nice chart of like all of the areas that Tesla's like sought a provolion for robot taxi um so hopefully you know sure many of you have seen that as well but yeah it's it is really exciting that again they're they are getting the groundwork in place for this pretty massive expansion um that people will again continue to take for granted until like the drivers and safety passengers are out of the vehicle but someday that's gonna happen right and then you can't take it for granted anymore like it's too late by then because then it's obvious it's it's done it's completed by then so the only thing that you know is in question at that point is was it too soon and is it going to make a mistake that ruins the business uh so you don't want to have that question be a question so once I get to that point they'll they'll be about um okay so that's the opening comments I don't think anything too crazy in there.
到今年年底，会有八到十个城市地区实现这项技术。我在X平台上看到了这个消息，不记得是谁发的，但我觉得有一张图表列出了所有特斯拉申请机器出租车许可的地区。希望很多人也看到了这个消息。这真的很令人兴奋，因为他们正在为这一大规模扩展打下基础。人们往往会对这种变化视而不见，直到司机和安全员不再在车里，但总有一天这一切会实现的。到那时，大家再也不能对其视而不见，因为它已经成为现实。唯一需要担心的就是这个时间点是否太早了，是否会出现错误而影响业务。因此，我们不希望这种担忧成为问题。一旦技术成熟，他们将更加关注其他方面。以上就是我的开场评论，里面没有什么特别疯狂的内容。
Um all right so let's get into some questions here uh did see let me see did see a couple of super chats here uh hope I don't miss any I'll try to just go from the top uh mark per se thank you uh appreciate that not a question on that one um let's see a ton of Gary I can't actually put them on screen on this uh this streaming thing that I'm using uh uh Francis gonna see on here thank you appreciate that thanks again Rex I will do my best to get well yeah if you didn't watch the shareholder like I'm getting over I guess I'm kind of in the midst of a cold so I know it's a stopped running a little bit for earnings thankfully uh pop thank you for that uh just voted to approve Yon's performance award space cowboy thanks for that super chat feel like I missed a couple here uh here we go it's on I'll get it yeah I don't know why this didn't show up in the scrolling thing um well that's a big super chat thank you thank you I appreciate that.
好的，那么我们开始回答一些问题吧。嗯，让我看看这里有没有超级留言，希望我没有错过什么，我会尽量从上往下回答。马克，感谢你的超级留言，不过这条没有问题。好吧，加里，有很多留言，但我这个直播工具无法在屏幕上显示。谢谢你，弗朗西斯，感谢你的支持。还有雷克斯，谢谢你，我会尽量好好照顾自己。如果你没看股东大会，我其实还在感冒中，但还好在财报发布的时候稍微好了一些。噢，是的，谢谢你的留言，我刚刚投票批准了Yon的绩效奖励。感谢太空牛仔的超级留言，我觉得我可能漏掉了一些。好的，我好像找到了，我不知道为什么这个没有在滚动的列表中显示出来。哇，这是一个很大的超级留言，非常感谢，我很感激。
Um Gary says haven't given up on hardware three from one who's shaking grace hoppers hand after flying from WDC to thank me for automating her then dying on the DOD vine cobble into ASC 2 allowing it to be today's most widely used business software I see no good reason why FSD 14 plus can't be similarly optimized to work in hardware three so yeah it'll be really interesting like obviously Tesla's and Tesla's goal right now is to get to unsupervised they're not putting that development priority on optimizing hardware three really any much really any more much at all but it sounds like they still intend to do that to see what level it can get to I think they they think that it probably won't get to fully unsupervised um but we'll see I mean maybe maybe it does so anyway thank you Gary for that I really appreciate that um yeah I think the chat just like cuts off let me see if I can fix this here yeah I think that I think the chat just cuts off in what I'm available.
加里说，他还没有放弃硬件三代，这让我想起了当初从华盛顿飞过来，握着格蕾丝·霍普的手，感谢我为她的工作自动化做出的贡献，这项技术后来在国防部经历了发展历程，最终被整合到 ASC 2 系统，成为今天最广泛使用的商业软件之一。我不认为没有理由不能把 FSD 14 加以类似的优化，以便在硬件三代上运行。所以这将会非常有趣。显然，特斯拉现在的目标是实现无人监督驾驶，他们并没有把优先发展目标放在优化硬件三代上，基本上不怎么关注。不过听起来他们仍然打算看看硬件三代能够达到什么水平。我认为他们觉得可能很难完全实现无人监督驾驶，但我们拭目以待，或许会实现。无论如何，非常感谢加里的分享，我真的很感激。嗯，我觉得聊天记录好像被截断了，让我看看能不能修复一下。是的，聊天记录好像就到这里了。
able to see here um so I'm really sorry if I missed anything from anybody let me just see if I can find any other questions before we wrap up or if any other thoughts pop into my mind for the day uh I guess just in general uh let's see where's the stock down 3% so and kind of where we started at least after the first 10 minutes or so of the call I think it settled around there so I don't know seems fine I mean a 3% move for earnings for Tesla is kind of like nothing really happened right like unfortunately it isn't the negative direction but that's such a minor change for a stock as volatile as Tesla that it's pretty meaningless um you know last quarter I think we're probably down more than that and we've seen the results not the results but just the movement in the share price since then so that's kind of a yonder I guess um but overall I think you know nice to see some of the strength in the business with uh particularly energy awesome quarter for energy was maybe a little bit I don't know concerning but like maybe a little bit of a probably not a warning either but just a word of caution that they are seeing some headwinds there with increasing competition.
在这里可以看到，所以如果我遗漏了任何人的问题，我真的很抱歉。在我们结束之前，让我看看能否找到其他问题，或者是否有其他想法浮现在脑海中。总体上，我们可以看到，股价下跌了3%，这基本上和我们通话大约前10分钟的情况差不多。我觉得这样还好吧。对于特斯拉来说，收益报告后的3%变动其实没什么大不了的。虽然不幸的是这是一个下跌，但对于像特斯拉这样波动性大的股票来说，这样的小变动其实没什么意义。你知道，上个季度我们可能下跌得比这多，而且我们已经看到此后的股价变动，所以我觉得这并不算什么。不过，总体来看，看到公司的实力还是很令人欣慰的，特别是在能源方面，这是一个很棒的季度。不过，他们也指出，由于竞争加剧，这方面面临一些阻力，虽然可能不是一个警告，但也许是一个值得注意的地方。
It's obviously a very hot market a very interesting market right now to meet all the demand for power and energy needs for AI for data centers for hyperscalers so you know it's something that a lot of people are going to be looking at a lot of people are going to be working on excuse me a Tesla is saying that they're starting to see some of that develop in the market but I think Tesla is in a position to compete really well but the caveat to that being that that may come with the results of a little bit of margin compression and that might be why Tesla is just pointing it out um I could be reading too far into that but that's just sort of my intuition with that comments um that being said they're also going to like scale volume massively here too and that comes with both cost advantages but also as you serve like a way of larger market something that's probably likely to double to triple over the next year two years um maybe three years when you scale up that dramatically like a lot of times you're doing that through economies of scale and a lot of times those economies of scale it's get passed on to customers for lower prices and that helps you grow the total investment market etc.
目前市场显然非常火热，对于满足人工智能、数据中心和超大规模企业的电力和能源需求来说，这是一个非常有趣的市场。所以，很多人都在关注这个领域，很多人也在努力参与其中。特斯拉表示，他们开始看到这个市场的一些发展迹象。我觉得特斯拉在这个市场上具备很强的竞争力，不过这个竞争力可能会伴随一些利润率的压缩，这可能也是特斯拉提到这一点的原因。当然，这只是我的直觉，也许我想得太多。
尽管如此，他们也计划在这里大规模扩展产量，这不仅会带来成本优势，而且在面向更大市场时，这个市场有可能在未来一到三年内翻倍甚至三倍增长。当你如此大幅扩展时，通常是通过规模经济实现的，而这种规模经济往往会通过降低价格的方式传递给客户，从而帮助你扩大整个投资市场等。
So wouldn't be surprised to see both average selling price costs and margins all those three come down for the energy storage business as that volume does increase um but anyway really nice quarter for energy services another nice quarter to it sounds like uh I think Antonio asked earlier it sounds like the robot taxi stuff is all just getting bucketed in there right now I don't think that really has any effect on those lines at the current scale again we could probably do the math now that we have the you know million miles in Bay Area 250 thousand miles and in Austin we could probably do the math on just you know how how much revenue maybe has been generated from that just like a ballpark so but I don't think that's anything significant at the moment or probably for you know next couple of quarters at least so we'll see how that develops but nice nice quarter for services another and then automotive pretty good quarter there I think too um nice to see the sequential growth and automotive growth margin I think that obviously buoyed a little bit by the expiration of the federal tax credit increasing demand that helps the delivery numbers and revenues and margins and now we have to sort of reap them reward of that here in the fourth quarter.
因此，不会对能源存储业务的平均销售价格、成本和利润率这三个指标随着业务量的增加而下降感到惊讶。但无论如何，这对于能源服务来说确实是一个不错的季度，另一个不错的季度。听起来似乎像安东尼奥之前问的那样，现在所有与机器人出租车相关的东西都被集中放在这里了。我认为在目前的规模下，这对这些数据线没有什么实际影响。考虑到我们现在在旧金山湾区已经达到了100万英里，在奥斯汀达到了25万英里，我们有可能算出这可能产生了多少收入，仅仅作为一个大致估算。但我认为目前或者至少在接下来的几个季度中，这都不是一个显著的数字，所以我们会继续观察其发展。但对于服务来说这是一个不错的季度，汽车业务也是一个不错的季度。我觉得看到汽车业务的环比增长和增长利润率是件好事，这显然受到联邦税收抵免到期后需求增加的推动，这有助于提升交付数量、收入和利润率，现在我们必须在第四季度收获这些收益。
Some of that will be offset a little bit by the just the order placement timing uh some of that will bump into Q4 as well so we'll see Q1 could be a challenging quarter especially since you know Q4 we've got the introduction of standard range or the standard version of the three in the y at a lower price so um we'll see how all that comes to comes together but once we get in Q1 next year you know we're talking about optimists we're talking about semi we're talking about FSD version 13 14.3 and maybe you know probably a little bit early at that point to be talking about a version 15 but then we're starting to get close to cyber cam production starting to get close into AI5 production most likely and maybe inclusion in the vehicle I'm not sure I would expect that that would coincide with cyber cam but I guess I'm not 100% sure on that off the top of my head.
其中一部分影响将会由于订单下达的时间安排被稍微抵消，其中有些影响会延续到第四季度，所以我们将看到第一季度可能是个具有挑战性的季度。尤其是因为在第四季度，我们推出了价格更低的三款和款车型的标准版或标准范围。因此，我们将观察这一切如何融合，但一旦进入明年第一季度，我们将讨论乐观主义者、半卡车、FSD（全自动驾驶）版本13到14.3，以及可能的第15版本（可能还是有点早）。但我们已经开始接近于Cybertruck的生产，也很可能接近AI5的生产，或许还会融入到车辆中。但我不太确定，这是否会与Cybertruck的时间一致，我现在不能完全肯定。
So yeah might be a little bit like a few rough weeks there but I think there's plenty to look forward to in in 2026 to be excited about for for Tesla so I think with that we can we can wrap it up again thank you all for joining really appreciate just the support when I come back and do this um I wish I could do a little bit more frequently can't make any promises but I'd you know I think I would like to do that at some point so we'll see but um if not you know at the latest we'll definitely be back next quarter and I gonna appreciate everyone joining and supporting it it really does mean a lot to me so thank you and we'll we'll keep an eye on Tesla and um just continue to see how these things advance and if I get a chance when I get a chance to do a little bit more driving an FST 14 I'll try to share some thoughts on X's there as well because it's a very exciting time with FST at the moment so thanks again and we'll talk soon.
所以，虽然接下来可能会有几个艰难的星期，但我认为大家可以期待2026年特斯拉会有很多令人兴奋的事情。我们就到这里结束吧，非常感谢大家的参与和支持。我很希望能更频繁地与大家交流，但不能做出任何承诺。不过，我确实希望在某个时刻能做到这一点。如果不能的话，我们至少下个季度一定会再见面。我非常感谢大家的加入和支持，这对我来说真的意义重大。谢谢大家，我们会继续关注特斯拉的发展，并看看事情如何进展。如果我有机会多体验一下FST 14的话，我会在X平台上分享一些想法。因为现在FST的发展非常令人振奋。再次感谢大家，我们很快会再聊。