Markets Weekly October 4, 2025

Hello my friends, today is October 4th and this is markets weekly. So this past week looking at the broad equity indexes doesn't seem like that much is going on. We have people whispering of an uptober and the market did trend up a little bit though historically October has been a volatile month. Golden Silver also trended higher, did have a notable down day on Thursday but those losses were recouped on Friday. Now the big news of past week of course was the government shutdown and related to that the lack of the monthly non-forms payrolls prints. So today let's talk a little bit about what private measures of the labor market are seeing and secondly let's talk a bit more about the government shutdown.

你好，朋友们，今天是10月4日，这是我们的每周市场观察。在过去的一周中，观察广泛的股市指数，似乎没有太多变化。有人在悄悄议论“涨十月”，虽然历史上十月通常是一个波动较大的月份，但市场确实略有上涨。黄金和白银也出现上涨走势，虽然在星期四有一个显著的下跌，但这些损失在星期五得到了弥补。上周的重要新闻当然是政府关门，以及因此导致的每月非农就业数据的缺失。所以今天我们聊聊私人劳动力市场指标的表现，然后再谈谈政府关门的情况。

Alright, so every time in every let's say era the market cares more about some things than others. When inflation was high the market cared most of all about CPR and employer errors occurred most about things like money growth and so forth. Right now we are in a period where the market cares most of all about employment and that's because that's what the Fed is focusing on. Now over the past few weeks it's become clear that the labor market is deteriorating. Now inflation is still a little bit above the Fed's target but the Fed has to signal that it's worried about the labor market.

好的，所以在每个时代，市场都会对某些事物更加关注。当通货膨胀高的时候，市场最关心的是CPI（消费者物价指数），而企业犯错时最关心的是货币增长等问题。目前，我们正处于市场最关注就业的时期，因为美联储正专注于此。在过去几周里，劳动力市场恶化的迹象已经变得明显。尽管通胀仍然略高于美联储的目标，但美联储必须表明他们对劳动力市场感到担忧。

Cut rates last month and is guiding towards two markets this year. Unfortunately we do not get the monthly non-forms payrolls print last week and so the market is kind of flying blind and so is the Fed. However last week we did get some other reports from the private sector about the state of the labor market so we do have some things to go on and who knows maybe going forward with more concern about public data sources maybe they will be greater reliance on private data sources. And to be clear this is not something that's new. I remember that after the financial crisis and we were doing Huey many people were I think we would have imminent high inflation did not trust the inflation prints.

上个月降息，并且今年有望向两个市场引导。遗憾的是，上周我们没有获得每月非农就业数据，因此市场和美联储都在某种程度上处于“盲飞”状态。不过，上周我们确实收到了一些私营部门关于就业市场状况的报告，所以我们仍然有一些依据。未来，可能由于对公共数据来源的担忧增加，大家会更加依赖私人数据来源。需要明确的是，这并不是新鲜事。我记得在金融危机后，当我们进行量化宽松政策时，有很多人不相信通胀数据，认为我们将会面临即将到来的高通胀。

It pointed to things like the billion price project or shadow staff to something like that and were confident that actually high inflation was happening. It's just that the government was lying about it and of course that was all nonsense. However we do have some reputable measures of estimates of how the labor market is going. So let's talk about those. First off we have the ADP monthly employment report they put out. So ADP is a large payments processor. If you work in the private sector in the US there's a good chance that you get your weekly paycheck process by ADP they have about 26 million employees in their service.

这段文字谈到了诸如“十亿价格项目”或“影子员工”等事情，并表示实际上高通胀正在发生。认为政府在这方面撒了谎，当然这都是无稽之谈。然而，我们确实有一些可以信赖的劳动力市场估测指标。让我们来讨论这些。首先，我们有ADP发布的月度就业报告。ADP是一家大型支付处理公司。如果你在美国的私营部门工作，很可能你的每周工资是由ADP处理的，他们的服务覆盖了大约2600万名员工。

So it's a pretty big sample of how the labor market is going. Now the estimates were for the ADP print to show it's a 50,000 in jobs growth. They actually showed a loss of 30,000 jobs last month. Again it's a huge huge upset. Now a big reason for them is that they revised their model, so updated their model to take into account the big benchmark revisions from that we got last month. So because of those benchmark revisions showing that overall the economy has created fewer jobs than expected. Now that affected their model and so it gave us negative 30,000 print.

这是对劳动力市场状况的一个相当大的样本。原先的估计认为ADP报告将显示增加5万个就业岗位。然而，实际上上个月却显示减少了3万个就业岗位。这真的是一个巨大的意外。其中一个主要原因是他们修订了模型，更新了模型以考虑我们上个月得到的基准修订。这些基准修订表明，整体经济创造的就业机会比预期的要少。这影响了他们的模型，因此产生了减少3万个就业岗位的数据。

They mentioned that if not for those revisions they'd have say 40,000 more which would give them let's say a 10,000 increase in jobs but of course that would still be below estimates. So overall obviously a disappointing print but it's just one measure. So let's look at other measures. Another payments processor paychecks it doesn't give as granular details and they're also a sizeable processor cover about 10 million employees in the United States. Also they produce this index and also they have weight growth as well according to their index.

他们提到，如果没有那些调整，他们本可以多获得大约40,000个工作岗位，这样假设可以增加10,000个工作机会，但即便如此，这仍然低于预期。因此，总体来看，这是一个令人失望的结果，但这只是一个指标。所以我们来看看其他指标。另一个支付处理公司Paychex，它不提供那么详细的数据，但也是一个规模较大的处理机构，覆盖了美国约1000万名员工。他们也发布一个指数，并且根据他们的指数显示工资增长情况。

Again, let's look like the job market is doing very well and if you look at their wage gains it also seems like it's been steadily decelerating and let's say increases roughly about 3% annual rate so nothing to write down about. Now other prints that we get are from the ISM survey so these are diffusion surveys what happens is that they're given a survey and asked to say that no are things better, worse or the same than last month. It doesn't measure magnitude also only measures direction and according to the ISM surveys if you look at the employment sub component it's all below 50 that means employment is getting worse.

再来看一下，似乎就业市场表现很好，但如果观察他们的工资增长，似乎也在稳定减缓，年增长率大概是3%左右，没有特别值得注意的地方。现在，再来看我们从ISM调查中得到的信息。这些是扩散调查，参与者会被问及相较上个月情况是变好了、变差了还是一样。它不衡量变化的幅度，只衡量方向。根据ISM调查，如果你关注就业这个分项指数，所有数据都低于50，这意味着就业情况在变差。

So basically all the private sectors of employment that we get the past month I'll show that the limo market continues to do poorly. Now it gets really important to note that these measures of employment don't correlate very well with the non-forms periodual state up. So individually people usually ignore the ADP prints however though directionally they actually they seem to move they tend to move in the same direction. So the non-forms period spreads when we eventually get it probably won't look very good.

基本上，根据我们过去一个月的数据，所有私营部门的就业情况显示，豪华车市场（limo market）的表现依然不佳。需要特别注意的是，这些就业统计与非农就业数据（non-farm employment data）的相关性不高。所以，人们通常会忽视ADP就业数据。然而，从趋势上看，这两者的变化方向往往是相同的。因此，当我们最终得到非农数据时，可能情况也不会太好。

Now one thing to note is that you have a lot of people looking at this and just striking it often saying no. This is all due to supply side issues that is because of the crack down in illegal immigration that's what's infecting the job sprint and that is definitely part of it but it's also pretty clear though that there's a demand component because if we suddenly have less supply labor you would expect that the price of labor so wages to go up but that's just not happening so definitely a demand component there as well.

需要注意的是，现在有很多人关注这个问题，并经常表示否定。所有这些主要是由于供给方面的问题，因为打击非法移民影响了就业的增长，这确实是原因之一。但是很明显，这里面也有需求方面的因素。因为如果劳动力供应突然减少，你会预计人工成本，即工资会上升，但这种情况并没有发生，所以无疑也与需求有关。

Now one thing that I thought was super interesting the past week was that when we had the poor jobs market data from ADP the market actually went up the stock market went up the bond markets price didn't more rate cuts so rates went lower but the stock market actually went up so that seems to be a tell that we're in a regime where values is good news whereas normally you would say that hey we're increasing the probability of a recession maybe that's not good maybe stocks should sell off but it seems like there's a class of investors who think that that data more rate cuts market go up so that's an interesting shift in the regime and that that's volatile that could change at any moment.

在过去一周，我觉得特别有趣的一件事是，当ADP发布糟糕的就业市场数据时，股市竟然上涨了，而债券市场的价格也没有下降，相反，由于市场预期更多的降息，利率反而降低了。通常情况下，你会认为增加经济衰退的可能性不是好事，股市理应下跌，但似乎有一类投资者认为这种数据意味着更多的降息，因此股市会上涨。这表明市场的形势有所改变，在这种局势下，坏消息反而成了好消息。不过，这种局势是波动的，可能随时发生变化。

So that seems to be what's happening at the time at the moment so that leads us to my next topic the government shutdown. So what happens during a government shutdown so this is different from the debt ceiling issue so periodically we go into debt ceiling issues or government shutdowns. The last shutdown we had was during Trump's first term and that's when the president demanded border wall funding exchange for government funding didn't work well for him that shutdown went on for over 30 days and eventually he caved but a government shutdown is when congress and the legislator can't agree on whether or not to have a bill to continue to fund the government.

这似乎就是目前正在发生的情况，这也引出了我的下一个话题——政府停摆。那么，政府停摆期间会发生什么呢？这与债务上限问题不同，我们会周期性地面对债务上限问题或政府停摆。上一次的政府停摆发生在特朗普的第一个任期，当时总统要求用边界墙的资金换取政府的资助，但这个策略对他并不奏效，停摆持续了30多天，最终他妥协。政府停摆指的是国会和立法者无法就是否通过法案来继续资助政府达成一致。

The government can access the debt markets it can issue treasury debt no problem it just doesn't have the authority to spend the money and that's what we're arguing towards right now. Now when the government can't agree on you know to have the bill to continue to finance the government then the government just shuts down until he gets a bill now during a shutdown the air is a division of employees between a shensha with non-essential and non-essential employees go home it's about say seven eight hundred thousand of these but over the basically on furloughed or holiday or something like that but don't worry they are not paid at the moment but when the government resumes they get back paid.

政府可以进入债务市场，发债没问题，但目前没有授权可以花这笔钱，这就是我们现在争论的焦点。当政府不能就继续资助政府的法案达成一致时，政府就会关门，直到新的法案出台。在政府关门期间，员工会分为必要和非必要人员，非必要员工需要回家，大约有七八十万人可能会被暂时休假或类似情况。不过不用担心，他们虽然暂时没有工资，但政府恢复运作后，他们会得到补发的工资。

So the economic impact of this isn't super large you can say that workers that would have gone to local restaurants to get lunch now they're not doing that and so the local restaurant will suffer but in so far as the workers having money to spend you know they're going to skip a paycheck but they'll get that in back pay so it's not that big of a deal essential workers will continue to work so that's like the police and military airports and it looks like a lot of the national parks will continue to function as well which is great because I would hate to be a tourist by all the way over to the United States go to the Yellowstone and find now that it's closed.

所以，这件事情的经济影响不是特别大。你可以说，本来工人们会去当地的餐馆吃午餐，现在他们不去了，因此当地餐馆可能会受到影响。但就工人们有钱花这点来说，他们可能会少领一份工资，但之后会通过补发工资拿到，所以影响不大。关键岗位的工作人员，比如警察、军队、机场人员等将继续工作。而且，很多国家公园看来也会继续开放，这很好，因为如果我是个千里迢迢来到美国的游客，去黄石公园却发现关门了，那就太糟糕了。

So it seems like the impasse right now has to do with health care so the democrats would like to have renewal in a lot of the tax credits or the credits that support health or as republicans want those to lapse now the argument democrats give is that these health care subsidies are going to impact a lot of republican voters as well and that's totally true. Now poor people are part of the democratic party and part of the republican party and if the republicans continue with their you know not wanting to renew these health care subsidies a lot of their own voters will be impacted and so they feel that this is a good political issue.

目前的僵局似乎与医疗保健相关。民主党希望延长许多税收抵免或支持医疗的补贴，而共和党则希望这些补贴到期。民主党认为，这些医疗补贴也会影响到很多共和党的选民，这一点完全正确。目前，无论民主党还是共和党中都有一些贫困群体。如果共和党继续坚持不想延续这些医疗补贴，他们自己的许多选民将受到影响，因此民主党觉得这可能是一个有利的政治议题。

The messaging from the republican side is that what the democrats are trying to shut the government down because they want to give benefits to illegal immigrants and honestly that there's some truth that as well some of these funding does go to illegal immigrants in emergency circumstances and that is kind of a very unpopular point. There's a perception that democrats are giving benefits to illegal immigrants we've seen that over the past two years when illegal immigrants are given lodging in hotels and food and so forth and that's been unpopular since many poor Americans are feeling the pitch.

共和党方面的宣传是，民主党想要关闭政府，因为他们想给非法移民提供福利。坦率地说，这其中确实有一些道理，因为在某些紧急情况下，一些资金确实用于非法移民。这一点是比较不受欢迎的。人们普遍认为，民主党正在给非法移民提供福利，比如过去两年里，非法移民被安排在酒店住宿、提供食物等等，这在很多贫困的美国人感到经济压力的情况下，显得不太受欢迎。

So the shutdown according to the betting markets can go 17 days although the people that I listened to are really politically plugged in suggest that it will resolve faster than expected the big problem of course is that well from the republican side nobody wants to cut health care from the democrat side historically speaking when you're trying to shut down the government as a negotiating position it's not politically popular so that's why a president Trump had to cave in 2018 and this time around a democrats of course are aware of this there's no fallout immediately stock market continues to evolve a lot of central service continued to function so there's really no urgency to end it.

根据博彩市场的信息，这次停摆可能会持续17天，不过我听到的一些政治消息灵通人士认为，问题会比预期更快得到解决。问题的关键在于：共和党方面没有人愿意削减医疗开支，而从历史上看，民主党方面在利用政府停摆作为谈判手段时，并没有获得政治上的支持。这也是为什么特朗普总统在2018年不得不让步的原因。这次，民主党显然也意识到了这一点。眼下还没有出现直接的影响，股市仍在正常运作，许多核心服务也继续运行，因此并没有紧迫感需要结束停摆。

But as this goes on I think if there's more pressure on the on the side that's not willing it's using this as a bargaining chip to to cave now why is this an issue so this seems to be a fallout this seems to be driven largely by minority senate leader Schumer of the state of New York now earlier in the year there's also the prospect of a shutdown a senator Schumer came very quickly back then and that drew a lot of criticism from within the progressive wing of the democratic party and he's sensitive to that a lot of people in the democratic party are looking at all the things that president Trump is doing they're very worried and they really want their leaders to stand up and do something about it now another rink of this is that senator Schumer center of New York is facing a potential challenge by progressive star Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez in 2028 so it seems like some people think that he might be facing some pressure to act a bit tougher and the piece a bit more of the progressive elements in his consistency otherwise you know maybe he'll he'll lose in 2028 and AOC is a very formidable up political star and of course she's part of the progress wing.

随着事态的发展，我认为如果一方不愿意妥协而将其作为谈判筹码，那么压力会更大。现在的问题是，这似乎主要受到纽约州参议院少数党领袖舒默的影响。今年早些时候曾有停摆的前景，当时舒默参议员迅速做出了回应，这受到了民主党内进步派的许多批评，他对此很敏感。民主党中有很多人对特朗普总统正在做的事情感到担忧，他们希望领导人能够站出来采取行动。另一个层面是，来自纽约的舒默参议员在2028年可能面临进步派新星亚历山大·奥卡西奥·科尔特斯的挑战。因此，一些人认为他可能面临压力，需要表现得更加强硬，以迎合他选区内的进步派，否则他可能在2028年失利，而AOC是一个非常有实力的政治明星，她当然是进步派的一员。

So looks like we're going to just kind of hold this until probably we get some kind of resolution my best guess is that this will get resolved next week and when that happens I think the markets will like it and maybe traditional safe havens that were perceived to benefit from this like gold and crypto might have a pullback now one thing to note though is that you know one of the reasons why you can have this and quickly is that you kind of want the some kind of foresee mechanism so it looks like we're not getting big complaints from people who looks like we're not getting good complaints on the market so it could also be one of these weird circumstances where unless the market goes down we won't have a resolution and so but when we do have a resolution the market will up so it's kind of silly like this anyway and we'll find out next week so far it doesn't seem to be a big deal and yeah this can drive on for a long time last time it lasted more than 30 days right now it's only been three all right so that's all I have prepared for this week talk to y'all next week.

看起来我们要暂时观望，直到可能在下周事情有个解决。我的猜测是下周会有进展，而届时我认为市场会对此感到欢迎，也许那些被认为会从中受益的传统避险资产如黄金和加密货币可能会回落。不过需要注意的一点是，快速解决问题的原因之一是你希望能有某种前瞻机制，所以看起来我们没有听到太多来自市场的投诉。这可能也是一种奇怪的情况，市场不下跌就无法解决问题，但一旦解决了，市场就会上涨。有点搞笑，我们下周会知道结果。到目前为止，这似乎不是什么大问题，事情可能会拖很久。上次持续了30多天，而现在才过了三天。好吧，这就是我本周准备的内容，下周再聊。