Hello and welcome to Short Briefings on Long Term Thinking. Thanks for joining us. I'm Mark and Borthwick, Managing Editor at Bay the Gifford.
大家好,欢迎来到“长远思考简短简报”。感谢您的加入。我是Bay the Gifford的管理编辑Mark Borthwick。
When you think of Japan, conglomerates such as Sony, attach you in Mitsubishi, which have powered Japan's export growth for a generation, come to mind. You probably don't think of Shimaseki a manufacturer of automated knitting machines, Dessont, which owns licenses to use brands such as the Coxportif and Umbro, and Shoei, the maker of handmade motorcycle helmets.
The equivalent of Germany's middle stand, these small and medium-sized businesses are the beating heart of the Japanese economy. Japan has over 3.5 million small and medium-sized businesses, the employ about 7 in 10 workers in the private sector. These are the firms that are sometimes overlooked, but not by Proving Kumar, manager of Bay the Gifford Chinipon, who joins me in our Edinburgh studio.
这段话的意思是:对于德国中间层企业的相对应,在日本经济中,中小型企业是日本经济的中坚力量。日本有超过350万中小型企业,其中有70%的私营部门工人在这些企业工作。这些公司有时被忽视,但是Bay the Gifford Chinipon公司的经理Proving Kumar并没有忽视它们。他来到了我们爱丁堡演播室与我一同工作。
But before we start our conversation, some important information, please remember that as with all investments, your caps are at risk and your income is not guaranteed.
在我们开始对话之前,请记住以下重要信息:与所有投资一样,您的资金存在风险,您的收入不被保证。
Proving is great to have you back on Short Briefings on Long Term Thinking. Thanks for joining us. The last time we spoke was back in episode 8, when we chat about Japanese cosmetics.
That's right, thanks for having me again. Welcome and you're right. The last time we had a chat was about Japanese cosmetics. And this time around, I felt it would be quite interesting to discuss this massive swath of SMEs that, as you say, are the beating heart of Japan's economy, and which, for a number of reasons, for a very long period of time, have just been overlooked, not just by overseas investors, but, finally enough, by a lot of domestic investors as well. So, they're there in lies or opportunity.
So, let's start with some context. How do we define SMEs and why they're significant? So, there are a number of definitions. The one that we tend to use for simplicity is a company that has less than, say, 300-odd employees. If you want to speak in terms of the size by way of market capitalization, so we typically go for companies that are less than, say, one and a half billion dollars in market cap. So, those would be the ones that we would consider as being small or medium-sized businesses in Japan.
And when did we see the shift in Japan towards more of these small or medium-sized businesses? It's quite interesting because Japan has had sort of two waves of innovation. The first one was obviously when Japan started industrializing well before the first world war, so in the 1800s. And then obviously after the second world war, we had the second wave of industrialization when Japan was rebuilding as a result of the after-effects of World War II. And around that time, so all through the 60s, 70s and the 80s, a lot of that innovation, a lot of that rebuilding was led by some of the big corporates that we see today.
So just to give you some examples, the likes of Sony, Toshiba, Hitachi, Toyota, Honda within the automotive space. So these were all the bellwethers of the Japanese economy at the time. And they, in many cases, monopolized the R&D and the innovation that was happening in Japan at the time. But since then, we've seen a significant shift. And you could almost consider this to be the third wave of innovation that we're seeing in Japan, where a lot of Japanese companies have moved away from building these big, feasible products, these consumer electronics type products. And they've identified specific niches within these larger industries where they've suddenly realized that they have some in-house expertise built over the past many decades. And they've established leading global positions in these critical components of loss, many supply chains. So that is the shift that we've seen in the more recent decades, and which I think is a trend that is likely to continue over the next coming decades. So that's the shift from the large companies to these SMEs.
And I mentioned the little standard. A lot of people think of Germany when it comes to small, medium-sized enterprises. There are comparisons, aren't there, between how the economies of Germany and Japan have evolved over the years? That's absolutely right. And this is something that always has fascinated me, not just from a business perspective, but even from the point of view of the makeup of the economy, some of the cultural aspects, and say, for example, you know, savings rates, for instance, both Germany and Japan have tended to have quite high savings rates for instance. And also both have national champions in massive sectors like the auto sector, for instance. And also both had to do a bit of a significant rebuilding job of the country, the economy, post-World War II.
So there are quite a lot of eerie parallels, I would say, even if you look at demographics, you know, they are sort of similar. Japan, perhaps maybe a bit more in the extreme end. But what really fascinates me when I look at Germany and Japan is just this entire swath of SMEs.
Obviously, we have the middle-middle stand in Germany. We don't have a nice catching him for the Japanese SMEs. But these are, you know, the engine blocks, or the building blocks of corporate Japan and Germany. And the one slight difference is, whilst in Germany, a lot of these businesses tend to be private. In Japan, you do tend to see a lot of these SMEs, which are often run by founders and entrepreneurs that are listed, which, you know, is good news for us because that gives us an opportunity to identify and invest in these businesses.
Music Give me some examples of these companies' product. Sure.
音乐 请给我这些公司产品的一些例子。当然。
So one of my favorite examples is that of a company called Shoei, which makes really high-end premium helmets. So I've got a catalog here, which can go through, I mean, some of the helmets look absolutely, you know, sci-fi futurist.
Yeah. So a very, very simple product part, because the helmets are virtually handcrafted, and, you know, there is a bit of labor intensity to the way they make their helmets. These are very, very high-end products. They have a cult-like following, especially amongst the hardcore biking community globally. And they have a rapid-degrowing business in China, which is at a much earlier stage in terms of people embracing biking as a form of leisure, for instance.
So the history of the company is very interesting, and this is quite typical of how entrepreneurs just end up, you know, starting up these businesses. So the founder of Shoei used to work at a traditional Japanese inn that was owned by his parents, and two of the most regular customers at that inn. One of them just so happened to be the founder of Honda. And at the time, obviously, he hadn't yet found it Honda, but he was a keen biker himself.
So, you know, after a round of biking with his friend, he used to come to this inn. And this guy apparently had a very, very nice, hand-crafted helmet with, you know, some nice paintings, and that caught the fancy of the founder of Shoei, who was, you know, quite young at the time. And they struck a very, very close relationship, and then this guy, the biker, went on to found to establish Honda, which, you know, as we know, is a big global company. And then the founder of Shoei established the company himself making helmets, so he decided to leave his parents in and start manufacturing helmets for bikes.
And the friendship that they struck early on that continued through the years, so much so that Honda actually ended up adopting Shoei as the de facto helmet manufacturer for its own bikes. So, really, really interesting sort of back story to Shoei, which is now, you know, a big well-known global brand.
I mean, looking through this magazine you brought in, these are very, very high-end helmets in terms of design and specificity.
我的意思是,看着你带来的这本杂志,这些头盔在设计和专业性方面都非常高端。
Is that typical of Japanese SMEs? That, in many ways, is what we see a lot of these SMEs do. And I'll give you an example.
这是日本中小企业的典型特点吗?在很多方面,我们看到很多中小企业都这样做。我举个例子。
Just with helmets, you think, you know, a helmet is a pretty standard product, you know, everyone's probably owned one during their lifetimes. But within that, what Shoei have done is, they've innovated in terms of the material that they use for the helmets, I mean, really robust, sort of lightweight material.
The biggest innovation they've done is, in terms of the amount of electronics that they've actually crammed into that helmet without compromising on the weight, on the comfort, and on the shape, which is again, quite important. And obviously, you know, safety is the key thing here.
So, to give you an example, one of the recent models that they've launched, and there's a very nice video on YouTube of this model. It's called Optics On, OPTICSON. And they've developed almost like a supplementary mirror, which actually shows the rider a map, and you know, gives the rider very useful information in terms of what's the best route to take, and you know, you can even receive and make calls, just by voice control.
So, there's a lot of innovation in that sense, that they've managed to build into this helmet, which is again, quite typical of how most Japanese companies tend to approach innovation. It's not necessarily a big bang, revolutionary new product, but with an existing products that can constantly trying to make it better, refine their manufacturing techniques and trying to, you know, end up with a premium product in that sense.
And another company, which I thought was fascinating, is that we mentioned earlier, Shimizake, a manufacturer of automated netting machines.
还有一家我觉得很有趣的公司,就是我们之前提到的清水制作所,一家自动捕网机生产厂家。
Yes, that's absolutely right. And again, another example of a company that's pretty small, not that well known, even to a lot of investors in Japan, I must say.
是的,完全正确。再举一个例子,这是一家相当小的公司,对于许多日本的投资者来说,它并不太出名。
And they've developed this knitting machine. And to be honest, they've developed this quite a long time ago. It's not necessarily a recent innovation.
他们开发了这种针织机。说实话,他们已经开发了这个相当长的时间了,这不是最近的创新。
But what this machine does is you take the software design of whatever garment you want to make, you upload it to this machine, and it produces that entire garment in just one production run.
So it's like you're pressing a switch and the whole garment, whether it's a jumper or a pair of trousers, just comes out the other end.
就像你按下开关,整个衣物,无论是毛衣还是裤子,都会从另一端出来。
The traditional way of making those would be you manufacture the different bits first and then you stitch them.
传统的制作方法是先制造出不同的零件,然后再缝合它们。
And that stitching process involves, obviously, a degree of manual labor, but it also generates the most waste throughout that process.
那个缝制过程显然需要一定程度的人工劳动,但它也在整个过程中产生了最多的废物。
Because you've got to make sure all the different bits are fitting correctly, and then there's excess cloth and then you need to get rid of it.
因为你必须确保所有的零件都配合得正确,然后会有多余的布料,你需要把它清除掉。
So all of those issues are just completely taken away by this machine that Shima Seki developed.
所以,这台由瀬木志麻开发的机器完全消除了所有这些问题。
It's called a whole garment machine. And when you think in terms of reducing waste, impact on the climate, ESG, et cetera, something like this with its Shima Seki with its whole garment machine fits right in the middle of that.
And as we know, the appaller industry globally, in general, is among the largest producers of waste.
正如我们所知,全球的制造业普遍是废物生产量最大的行业之一。
So in its own small way, Shima Seki, I think, is addressing this issue.
我认为,岛关跟它的小小方式在关注这个问题。
And the other company that we talked about in the Instruction disont, I'm interested, I mean, a couple of European brands linked to that in terms of their distribution, Lakok Sportief and Umbro, and they have licenses for that, not just in Japan, but some other countries in the region.
How do Western sports brands perform in countries like Japan? Are they popular?
西方运动品牌在日本等国家表现如何?它们受欢迎吗?
So the Western brands in Japan, they are popular, but the overall market is still dominated by the Japanese brands. So if you talk about running, for instance, so brands like Asics, which is a Japanese company, they dominate the domestic market. All the likes of Nike and Adidas also have a decent share.
But within that, if you break the overall market down into specific niches, you do have a lot of domestic Japanese brands almost dominating those niches.
如果您将整个市场细分为特定的细分市场,您会发现很多本土日本品牌几乎支配着这些细分市场。
And disont is a classic example, which in a way, we always say across Paley, if I suppose that we have a bias towards family run businesses, towards entrepreneurs.
But they were so conservative in their business approach that it seemed to understand the changing nature of the industry, changing customer preferences.
他们在经营方式上非常保守,似乎不理解行业的变化及客户偏好的变化。
And over a period of time, that resulted in a significantly underperforming business, which resulted in a big trading company in Japan called Itochu coming in, taking a big stake in the business. And they basically got rid of all the family, founding family members and bought in their own professional management team.
And that resulted in a significant turnaround of the business. But what Itochu have done apart from the management changes also focused the company's efforts on China, which is a massive market.
这导致了业务的重大转机。除了管理变革外,伊藤忠也将公司的精力集中在中国这个巨大的市场上。
So they've engineered a JV between Disont and one of China's largest sporting goods companies called Antasports.
And Antasports is now helping Disont expand its brand through its considerable reach across China and helping them with advertising and marketing as well.
Antasports目前正在通过其广泛的覆盖面帮助Disont扩大品牌,并帮助他们进行广告和营销。
And within Shinnippon, you're very much focused on small and medium-sized business.
而在Shinnippon内,你非常专注于中小型企业。
When do small and medium-sized businesses become too big for your portfolio?
你的投资组合中,小型和中型企业何时会变得太大?
So for us, what is important is the starting point.
对我们来说,重要的是起点。这句话的意思是,对于我们来说,一个事情的开始是至关重要的。
When we invest, we specifically look for small-sized businesses. Typically, my sweet spot tends to be between the $300 to $500 million or $30 to $50 billion range.
That's the range in which we would typically like to take an initial holding.
这是我们通常希望在初始持股中选择的范围。
But for us, we are looking for companies that can generate really outsized returns for shareholders.
但对我们而言,我们正在寻找可以为股东带来真正超出预期收益的公司。
And when I say outsized returns, I don't mean two times or five times. I'm really talking of 10x, 20x over an extended period of time between five to 10 years.
Now, those businesses, you don't find them everywhere. They are very, very rare businesses, only a handful.
现在,这些企业并不随处可见。它们是非常非常罕见的企业,只有少数几个。
So to give ourselves the best chance of picking those types of businesses and more importantly, sticking with them, running our winners, we need to be very, very patient with them.
You know, a lot of people would probably end up thinking in terms of taking some profits, etc.
你知道的,很多人可能会考虑卖出部分股份以获取利润等等。
We think slightly differently. So with that sort of an investment philosophy, we don't think it is an issue in terms of, you know, company getting big and then what do we do with that?
我们的想法略有不同。因此,基于这种投资哲学,我们不认为公司变得庞大后处理起来会有问题。
In fact, that is probably the result of a success. So we are happy to run our winners for as long as we think the growth opportunity is still there. Once that part of the investment case starts to weaken, once we start feeling that there is not much growth to be heard in the future from that point onwards, that would be the trigger for us to think about selling the shares. It's very rarely you got to do with market cap, any numbers around it. It's just the growth opportunity.
And you were in Japan recently, the first time that you've been back to Japan since the start of COVID, what was it like? Yes, so really, really pleased to finally get back to Japan. I think it's been almost three years. And the first thing that I struggled a bit was with jet lag, obviously I've lost a bit of practice. So took me a couple of days, but it was absolutely fantastic being back in Japan. I was there for two weeks during the course of which I met around 35 to 40 companies.
What was striking to me was unlike what we see in the popular press here in the UK. We get our daily dose of grim news about one thing or the other. The businesses, the companies that I met, the vast majority of them were reasonably optimistic. I would say sort of cautiously optimistic. And this wasn't just a feeling that things are better in Japan. And Japan has reopened to tourism. They've dropped a lot of requirements. But it was more rooted in just simple data. And looking at order books, looking at trends in the orders that a lot of these companies were receiving.
And also not just looking at short-term order trends, but a bit further out, say two, three years out. So Shoe, again, going back to the example of Shoe, their sales and profits have been growing exceptionally rapidly. Shoe sales and profits have absolutely exploded, mainly on the back of Europe and the US. So you can imagine why they would be quite sort of encouraged and optimistic. And especially when they're seeing the Chinese market open up, now that would really massively boost their already significant growth profile.
So that was the first thing that struck me. Most of the businesses, not really, too concerned about a lot of these external events. Business conditions remain very favorable. A lot of the companies, especially the manufacturers, remain brutally cost-comparative. And the second thing that struck me was, this is a more of a softer cultural aspect, was that every single person I met was wearing a mask.
So a lot of these company meetings, I was going into the first question I was asking, was please can I take my mask off? And in some cases, the executives who are actually quite happy that I asked that question, because they took their masks off as well. And one final point, if I may, there's a lot of regulatory change across a number of sectors that we're seeing. And a lot of these will be strong tailwinds for a number of companies to give you one quick example.
So within the real estate sector, the government has now liberalized the way in which real estate transactions take place. So previously, there was a big element of having paper-based contracts, having some face-to-face interactions with your broker or with your agent. All those have been taken away now. You can basically buy and sell or lease or rent a property completely online without meeting anyone. And if you want, we've not even seen the property, which is fantastic news for some of our holdings, which a company called GA Technologies, which is Japan's leading online real estate platform.
And do you have a go-to from when you're back in Japan and between these company meetings that you liked to do from a cultural perspective? Yes, so I think for investors or anyone who's going to Japan, Mike, kind of advice would be to spend as little time as possible in Tokyo. Because Tokyo is not at all completely representative of what's actually happening in the real economy. It's a bit like London, because London, it's almost a market unto itself. It says nothing about what's happening in the broader UK.
So my advice would be to actually go and travel. So I spent a day in Osaka, for instance. All that was a short trip this time around. I usually go to a few other places, not just to meet companies, but to get a feel for what's happening in the local economy, maybe visit a few stores, chat with a few non-investment people, things like, from your profession, welcome, you know, journalists, and a few academics. So that's, I think, gives one slightly more rounded view of what's happening in the real economy, rather than simply, you know, visiting Tokyo and going to conferences, which can be quite an artificial environment.
And there are plenty other podcasts to choose from.
还有许多其他的播客可供选择。
Provene and I talked about Japanese cosmetics last time in episode eight, when we spoke together.
在第八集的时候,Provene和我一起谈论了日本化妆品。
Or if you want to find out and explore more about the innovative Scandinavian country that is an earth global giant, such as Ericsson, Spotify, and Akira, that's also there.