Investing in a sustainability revolution

Hello and welcome to Shopri Things Unlong-term Thinking. Thanks for joining us. I'm Mark and Borthwick, Managing Editor at Bayley Gifford.

大家好，欢迎来到Shopri Things Unlong-term Thinking（Shopri物品非长期思考）。感谢您的加入。我是Bayley Gifford的编辑主管Mark and Borthwick。

The Industrial Revolution was the world's first deep transition. Colon's team transformed how we worked and travelled. People swapped agricultural labour for factory jobs, lured to industrial heartland such as Liverpool, Hamburg and Boston by the promise of better wages, and steam powered trains and ships aided the transport of people and goods. However, it wasn't without its drawbacks. Two centuries later we face climate change, social inequality and biodiversity loss as a direct consequence. Finding solutions to these challenges will require radical innovation and further disruption. What some refer to as a second deep transition as sustainability revolution. In many respects a second deep transition is clearing up the mess from the first deep transition.

工业革命是世界上第一次深刻的转变。科隆团队改变了我们的工作和旅行方式。人们将农业劳动互换成了工厂工作，被更好工资的承诺所诱惑，前往工业中心如利物浦、汉堡和波士顿；蒸汽动力的火车和船只帮助人们运输货物和人口。然而，这种变革并不是没有缺点的。两个世纪后，我们面临的气候变化、社会不平等和生物多样性损失直接源于这一变革。解决这些挑战需要进行激进的创新和深度颠覆。有些人将其称之为可持续性革命的第二次深刻转变。在很多方面，第二次深刻转变是清理第一次深刻转变留下的混乱。

Kate Foxes involves in the project to explore what this might mean, led by Utrecht University and the University of Sussex. Kate is a dry manager of Keystone Positive Change Investment Trust and the Positive Change Fund. She joins me here in our Edinburgh studio. But before we start the conversation some important information. Please remember that as with all investments your capsules at risk and your income is not guaranteed.

凯特·福克斯参与了由乌得勒支大学和萨塞克斯大学领导的探索项目，探讨这可能意味着什么。凯特是Keystone Positive Change投资信托和积极变革基金的干事经理。她在我们爱丁堡的工作室加入了我。但在我们开始对话之前，有些重要的信息需要提醒大家。请记住，与所有投资一样，您的利益可能处于风险之中，并且您的收益不能得到保障。

Kate thanks for joining us on ShopBree Things on Long-Tem Thinking. Great to have you with us. Morning, thanks for having me welcome. So let's start with why our deep transitions relevant to you as an investor.

凯特，感谢您加入ShopBree的“长期思考”计划。很高兴有您的加入。早上好，感谢您的邀请。那么我们就从为什么深度转型对您作为投资者来说具有相关性开始谈起。

I think there are two key reasons. Firstly, deep transition needs to happen to undo the harm that's been created by the first deep transition. So you referenced the Industrial Revolution Malcolm. And great things came from that in terms of prosperity, technological advancement, etc. But there have been some unintended negative consequences, climate change by diversity, risk rising inequality. The change needs to happen. And secondly, it's important because from change comes an opportunity. And that's great for long-term growth investors. If we think about the healthcare revolution that will create exciting areas for us to identify the growth businesses of the future. The agricultural system currently is very industrialised. It consumes a huge amount of water, is responsible for up to 20% of global emissions. Change really excites me as an investor. Because that's where we identify the companies that are driving that change. Because they'll be the companies that will generate a tract of investment returns over the coming years and decades.

我认为有两个关键原因。首先，深刻的转变需要发生，以消除第一次深层次转变造成的伤害。你提到了工业革命，马尔科姆。在繁荣、技术进步等方面获得了很多好处，但也产生了一些意想不到的负面后果，例如气候变化、生物多样性下降、不平等风险上升等等。这种变革必须发生。其次，因为变革带来了机会，所以它很重要。这对于长期的增长型投资者来说是件好事。如果我们想想将来的医疗革命，它将为我们创造令人兴奋的领域来鉴别未来的增长型企业。目前的农业系统非常工业化，消耗了大量的水资源，负责全球排放量的20%。作为投资者，我真的很期待变革的到来。因为那里就是我们鉴别那些驱动变革的公司的地方，它们将在未来数十年中创造出可观的投资回报率。

So let's talk a little bit about the deep transitions research project. One of our former investment managers, James Anderson, began supporting it while he was still at Bayley Gifford. And both James and Bayley Gifford continue to be involved. Let's hear from the leader of the project, Professor Johann Schult from ETHRAC University's Center for Global Challenges. He describes himself as a time traveler. Earlier, I asked him why. It means that I mobilise the past to think about the future. So I try to understand the past, the way it constrains our current behaviour, but also the way it enables new type of behaviours. Because the past consists on one hand of dominant patterns, dominant ways of doing things. But on the other hand, it also consists of roads not taken or alternative practices that have never become dominant, that may become inspiration for the future. And the past can also be used to test some of our ideas and to develop theories. So when we travel to the future, we come armed with a very good understanding of the constraints and the enabling effectors. And this will help us to build scenarios and ways of thinking about the future.

让我们来谈谈深度转型研究项目。我们前任的投资经理詹姆斯·安德森在贝利吉福德任职期间开始支持该项目，现在他和贝利吉福德都继续参与其中。现在我们听听该项目的负责人——来自瑞士苏黎世联邦理工学院全球挑战中心的约翰·舒尔特教授。他自称是一个时光旅行者。早些时候，我问他为什么会这样说。他回答：“这意味着我运用过去来思考未来。所以我试图理解过去，它对我们当前行为的限制，但还有它能够启迪新类型行为的那一面。因为过去一方面包含着显而易见的模式、常规的做法；另一方面，它也包含未走过的路和未成为主流的替代实践，这些可能会成为未来的灵感来源。同时过去也可以用来检验一些理念和开发理论。所以，当我们走向未来，我们会带着一种对限制和推动因素非常深刻的理解。这将有助于我们构建情境和思考未来。”

And that's Johann Schult, time traveler and founder of the Deep Transitions Research Project. What attracted you to the project, Kate? Firstly, there's a huge alignment around the sustainability revolution as you described it. And being an impact investor with positive change, we're trying to address those global challenges such as climate change by diversity loss and rising inequalities. Secondly, the long-termism. So to come across a project that was thinking over the last 250 years was really quite unique. And as part of the project, we've been imagining future world scenarios, thinking to 2030 and 2050. Thirdly, impact investing tends to be quite a collaborative discipline. So I was looking forward to learning and interacting with investors from different parts of the world, the global north, the global south, and people that are involved in public investing and private investing. And finally, and probably most importantly, I was really excited about it being an opportunity for me to think differently.

这是约翰·施尔特，时空旅行者和深度转型研究项目的创始人。Kate，你对这个项目有何吸引之处？首先，正如你所描述的那样，可持续性革命是一大共同点。作为具有积极影响的投资者，我们正在努力应对全球挑战，如气候变化、多样性丧失和不断增加的不平等。其次，是长期思维。因此，我们接触到一个考虑过去250年的项目，确实非常独特。作为该项目的一部分，我们一直在想象未来的世界情景，思考到2030年和2050年。第三，影响投资倾向于是一种协作性很强的学科。因此，我期待与来自世界各地的投资者、全球北方和南方的人，以及参与公共投资和私人投资的人进行学习和互动。最后，可能是最重要的，我对能有机会以不同的方式思考感到非常兴奋。

You mentioned earlier imagining future world scenarios. Let's get an idea of what that involved. The year is 2050. Changing attitudes to engineered foods have catalyzed the development of lab-grown meat and the use of urban vertical farms grown genetically in hard-sfruit and vegetables. New technologies allow enthusiasts to safely experiment with biohacking themselves, leading to fierce competition between megacorporations and open-source citizen-run bio labs. Meanwhile, nature has become a world space, largely devoid of agricultural activities.

你之前提到过想象未来的世界场景。我们来了解一下其中涉及到的内容。现在是2050年。对基因改造食品态度的改变催生了实验室培育的肉和城市垂直农场种植基因硬果蔬菜的使用。新技术允许爱好者安全地尝试生物黑客自己，导致大型企业和开源市民经营的生物实验室之间的激烈竞争。与此同时，自然已经成为一个世界空间，大部分缺乏农业活动。

Ask yourself these questions. How do these changes occur? How will these developments play out? And what other niche technologies would make this world more desirable? How do you think about the future world scenarios? Another involved flying cars, piloted by artificial intelligence, that remove carbon from the air. Well, a third example centered on the use of hydrogen-powered data centers on the moon. These are all exciting ideas that could bring about transformative change in the future.

你会问自己这些问题：这些变化如何发生？这些发展会如何实现？还有哪些细分技术可以让这个世界更令人向往？你对未来世界场景怎么看？另一个涉及由人工智能驾驶的飞行汽车，可以从空气中除去碳。第三个例子集中于在月球上使用氢动力数据中心。这些都是令人兴奋的想法，可能会在未来带来变革性的改变。

But what did you discover Kate that we could put into practical use today? So I've learned to think about companies that we invest in and opportunities of companies that we might invest in differently. I think there are two key elements to that, to use some of the language of the project and the frameworks.

凯特，你发现了什么实用的东西可以应用于今天吗？所以我学会了以不同的方式思考我们投资的公司和有可能投资的公司的机会。我认为这其中有两个关键要素，可以使用一些项目和框架的语言来描述。

First of all, I think you've got a greater appreciation of the fragility of niches within a system. So what's a niche within a system? A niche within a system is a space of radical innovation. So electric vehicles would have been a niche for a number of years. Well, decades really until Tesla did a terrific job of helping them transcend beyond a niche. Plant-based meat products or meat alternatives are still relatively niches at work, so beyond meat burgers. And if we think about another example might be flying electric taxis, that's still very early stage niche.

首先，我认为你更加意识到系统内不稳定性的珍贵性。那么，什么是系统内的一个“洼地”呢？在系统内部，一个“洼地”是创新的空间。例如，电动汽车在许多年内一直是一个“洼地”，实际上，直到特斯拉出色地帮助它们超越了“洼地”。植物肉制品或肉类替代品仍然是相对较小的洼地，如Beyond Meat汉堡。另一个例子可能是飞行的电动出租车，这仍然是一个非常早期的小众市场。

With a niche, you've got to think about all the different actors within the existing system that dominates who's interest it might not be for those niches to flourish. But that's why we become really important as investors in helping create that space for the niches to flourish.

在一个特定领域，你需要考虑主导现有系统的各种参与者，可能对该领域繁荣发展的利益不利。但这正是我们作为投资者非常重要的原因，因为我们帮助创造这个空间促进特定领域的繁荣发展。

The second way of thinking that really resonated or was that sort of eureka moment for me in the project was differentiating between systems optimization and systems transformation. Can you give me an example? So electric vehicles they're helping optimize the current mobility system. They are terrific in that they are less carbon-intensive than internal combustion engines. So in a way, Tesla has played a vital role in helping optimize the system.

在这个项目中，使我感到共鸣或者说恍然大悟的第二种思维方式，是区分系统优化和系统转型。你能举个例子吗？比如电动汽车，它们有助于优化现有的交通系统。它们非常优秀，因为它们比内燃机更少产生碳排放。因此，在某种程度上，特斯拉在帮助优化系统方面发挥了至关重要的作用。

Now the challenge that Johan and his researchers presented with that is that was that optimizing the current system, which is that we all think we need to own our own car, whereas actually transforming the system would be moving towards mobility as a service. So that would be enabled by autonomous vehicles, perhaps the robot taxi Tesla, so that these vehicles can be used more often. It's a shared system. So the optimization is almost working and improving within the current system and the transformation is something that's completely different that's going outside of the system.

现在，约翰和他的研究小组面临的挑战是优化当前的交通系统。我们都认为需要拥有自己的车，而实际上，转型为以出行服务为核心的交通系统将是更好的选择。这需要自动驾驶的汽车，例如特斯拉的机器人出租车，这样这些车辆就可以更频繁地被使用。这是一个共享的系统。优化工作就是在当前系统内工作和改进，而转换就是完全不同的，是从系统外部进行的。

Give me some other examples of companies that you might be looking at that can make that transformative step. Yeah, so following some of the sessions that we've had with the panel, I tried to explore with colleagues a company called DEA, which we invested in positive change, which makes their conic green tractors. What excites us about DEA is its precision agriculture equipment, which uses a combination of sensors and cameras and data to help identify what's plant and what's weed so that it can apply herbicides and fertilizers appropriately, which means that we can increase yields by using fewer chemical fertilizers.

请给我提供一些其他的公司例子，这些公司也有可能迈出突破性的步伐。嗯，根据我们与专家小组的一些讨论，我和同事一起了解了一家叫DEA的公司，我们投资他们生产绿色拖拉机。我们对DEA感到兴奋的是他们的精准农业设备，使用传感器、相机和数据等多种技术，识别出植物和草杂草，以便恰当地施用除草剂和肥料，这意味着我们可以减少使用化学肥料，从而提高产量。

But what I was intrigued to explore is is this contributing to optimizing the current industrialized agriculture system or can it contribute towards transformation where we use more regenerative and nature-based solutions. And I think that there is perhaps a case for DEA helping to contribute towards that transformation as its precision agriculture equipment can help farmers apply things in a more precise manner. Smaller tractors can be more nimble, more agile, so that they can operate farms which are much less ubiquitous. And perhaps a field which has got two crops intercropping, which is much better from a biodiversity perspective.

然而，我感到很有兴致去探索的是，这是否有助于优化当前的工业农业系统，或者它是否有助于转变，采用更多再生和基于自然的解决方案。我认为， DEA或许有助于促进这种变革，因为它的精度农业设备可以帮助农民更加精确地应用农业方法。较小的拖拉机可以更加敏捷，更加灵活，因此可以操作更少遍地的农场。而在生物多样性层面，也许这种方法可以让两种作物间作种植更加好用。

And are you seeing many hugely transformative companies out there? I think we're at a really exciting point that there are a number of technologies that are exciting in isolation, but also in combination come together that can create a fantastic transformation. If we think about Moderna, for example, where it's the understanding of biology combined with data and AI and machine learning, bring that together and you've got something really quite transformative.

你是否看到许多发生巨大转变的公司呢？我认为我们正处于一个非常令人兴奋的节点，有许多令人兴奋的技术独立存在，但是当它们结合起来时，可以创造出令人惊叹的变革。例如，如果我们考虑现代纳公司，它是生物学、数据、人工智能和机器学习的理解相结合，将它们结合起来就能创造出具有极大变革性的东西。

What are the principles of investors should follow to achieve this second deep transition that we've talked about the sustainability revolution? So the output of the global panel work was the establishment of a transformative investment philosophy of which there are 12 principles for different stakeholders to adopt.

为了实现我们所谈论的可持续性革命的第二次深度转型，投资者应遵循什么原则？因此，全球小组工作的产出是建立一种变革性投资哲学，其中有12个原则供不同利益相关者采纳。

So investors in the private and public space, policymakers, lots of different people within the system as you like. Some of those principles are consistent with those that we've been applying at Bayley Gifford for decades. So for example, principle number two, which is about being long term, principle number six, which is about embracing uncertainty and principle number 11, which is about fostering an interdisciplinary research approach.

投资者在私人和公共领域，政策制定者以及系统内的许多不同人士，就像您喜欢的那样。其中一些原则与我们在Bayley Gifford应用了几十年的原则是一致的。例如，原则二是关于长期的，原则六是关于接受不确定性的，原则十一是关于促进跨学科研究方法的。

But there are some that I think will help me sort of keep pushing on and advancing. We're all trying to get better at everything that we do at Bayley Gifford. So one of those would be principle number one of the 12 principles, which is transform the system, which we've just explored. And the second one would be principle number five, which is enhanced portfolio synergies.

但是我认为有一些原则可以帮助我继续推进和进步。我们都在努力提高贝利·吉福德的所有事情。其中之一是12个原则中的第一原则，即转变系统，我们刚刚探讨了这一点。第二个是第五原则，即增强投资组合协同效应。

So here it's about thinking about a collection of ideas or companies that in combination will support one another and maximize the chances of success. So if we go back to the electric vehicle example, we won't be able to transform the mobility system just by coming up with fantastic vehicles.

这里谈的是思考一系列互相支持的想法或公司，以最大化成功的机会。 因此，如果我们回到电动车的例子，仅凭出色的车辆就无法改变运输系统。

We've got to make sure that we've got the charging network that can support that. We've got to make sure that we've got good batteries and there are a number of different battery companies and technologies. Can we recycle those batteries, UMACOR and NorthVolt, for example, would contribute towards the recycling? So that's something else that I think that I'm really excited about applying.

我们必须确保我们有支持充电网络。我们必须确保我们拥有好的电池，而有许多不同的电池公司和技术。像UMACOR和NorthVolt这样的公司，我们能够回收这些电池吗？因此，我非常兴奋能够实践这个想法。

I guess it's a danger of getting tunnel vision about a company and what it's doing without really working out the environment in which it could be successful and what's required for that success? Yeah, absolutely. And I think this is what this project has done. It's about helping remove the blinkers and think, making sure that we, or increasing our chances of thinking at a much broader level, at a systems wide level, thinking about a company's role within a system and between different systems and all the different connections that are going to be required for the company or a niche to thrive.

我猜这可能是关于一个公司的视野很狭窄，只关注其所做的事情，而没有真正理解其成功所需的环境和要求的危险。是的，完全是这样。我认为这就是这个项目所做的。它旨在帮助我们消除狭隘的思维方式，确保我们能更广泛地思考，以系统范围的角度思考公司在系统中的角色以及不同系统之间的角色，以及公司或市场需求的所有不同联系，从而增加公司或市场要繁荣的机会。

And let's go back to your own short here. Earlier I asked them, what's next for the Deep Transitions project? The next phase is about implementation.

让我们回到你自己的短片上。之前我问过他们，Deep Transitions项目接下来要做什么？接下来的阶段是实施阶段。

So how can we implement these ideas in actual investment practice? So the main vision is that we want to bring together a set of front runners who want to experiment with using these ideas in the investment practice and through this develop the narrative around transformative investment. The Deep Transition Lab, we want to create, should also become a mobilizing force for bringing about change.

那么我们如何在实际投资实践中实现这些想法呢？主要的愿景是我们想将一组前沿者聚集起来，尝试在投资实践中使用这些想法，并通过此来发展关于变革性投资的叙述。我们想要创建的“深度转型实验室”也应成为推动变革的动力。

So it's on the one end, about the front runners, but these front runners need to connect with other investors to enable a larger change in the finance industry the coming decade. Because this is crucially important for enabling the second Deep Transition that investors will change their practice.

因此，它首先关注的是领跑者，但是这些领跑者需要与其他投资者联系，以实现金融行业未来十年的更大变革。因为这对于实现投资者改变实践的第二次深度转型至关重要。

Johan Schultt there, what excites you about the next steps that Johan was describing?

约翰·舒尔特，你对约翰所描述的下一步计划感到兴奋的地方是什么？

Yeah, I think the primary thing that excites me about it is it's taking all this thinking to actually doing. It's about applying what we've learnt. I love the fact that it's taking an experimental approach and also the long-term approach. So it's not just about doing the experiments. It's about learning from the experiments and using those learnings to help educate the next generation of investors because this is speaking to be a multi-decade approach.

是的，我认为让我兴奋的主要是它将所有的思考都付诸实践了。它是将我们所学应用的过程。我喜欢这个实验性的方法和长期的观点。因此，这不仅仅是做实验，而是从实验中学习并利用这些经验去帮助教育下一代投资者，因为这是一个多年代的过程。

And this just isn't about Bay the Gifford. This is about trying to mobilise interest and action from the wider industry as well as policymakers and others. Yeah, absolutely. Because it's going to take lots of different groups within society if we were to be successful in addressing the challenges that we face.

这不仅仅是关于贝蒂吉福德的问题，还包括试图动员更广泛的产业界、政策制定者和其他人的兴趣和行动。是的，完全正确。因为如果我们成功应对所面临的挑战，需要社会内许多不同的群体共同努力。

In some ways I think this transformative investment philosophy is like a niche within the financial system. So it's fragile but it's important we want to be able to transform or help to contribute towards the transformation of the financial system so that more capital is deployed towards enabling that second and important Deep Transition.

在某些方面，我认为这种转型投资理念就像金融系统中的一个小众市场。因此，它很脆弱，但我们很重视它，因为我们想要促进金融系统的转型，以便更多的资本被用于支持这个重要的深度转型。

Is it the mobilisation of capital that's absolutely crucial here isn't it in terms of driving change?

在推动变革方面，关键不是资本的调动吗？

Yeah, and I think that's something that I was naive in my understanding when I started out as an investor 20 years ago was the power of capital. Capital can be a really important mechanism for change. It's not the only mechanism for change but it's a key mechanism for change.

是的，我认为在20年前我开始投资的时候，我对资本的力量理解得很幼稚。资本可以成为一种非常重要的变革机制，虽然不是唯一的变革机制，但确实是关键的变革机制。

And how much of that motivates you personally as an investor?

这是多少激励你作为一名投资者的个人动力？ 这句话的意思是在问，有多少这样的东西是能够激励你作为一个投资者的个人动力。

Oh, hugely. I mean the last seven years have been absolutely the highlight of my career so far and I'm really excited about the next 15 years of deploying capital towards driving change.

哦，太棒了。我的职业生涯中最近七年绝对是最精彩的时期，我对未来的15年非常兴奋，将投入资本来推动变革。

And there's a post of note 10.on Kate thanks for joining us on short briefings on long-term thinking. Thank you for having me. And thanks for investing your time in short briefings on long-term thinking.

有一篇关于凯特的帖子，感谢她参加我们的短暂简报，分享她的长期思考。非常感谢你的加入，也感谢你在短暂的简报中投入了时间去思考长远。

You can find our podcast at BayTheGiffer.com forward slash podcasts or subscribe but upper podcasts Spotify are on tune in. And if you enjoyed our conversation about deep transitions check out previous discussions we've had on the podcast ranging from the companies to disrupting the world's biggest killer heart disease to exploring the innovative Scandinavian country that has an earth global giants such as Ericsson, Spotify and IKEA. What's its secret? Find out by listening to our podcast.

您可以在BayTheGiffer.com/podcasts上找到我们的播客，也可以订阅我们在Spotify或TuneIn上的播客。如果您喜欢我们关于深层转变的讨论，请查看我们之前在播客中进行的讨论，范围涵盖从颠覆世界上最大的杀手心脏病的公司到探索创新的北欧国家，该国拥有全球巨头如爱立信、Spotify和宜家。它的秘密是什么？请通过听我们的播客来了解。

And you heard earlier from Johan Schultt. If you'd like to discover more about his work on transformative investment visit transformativeinvestment.net. And to stay up to date with the development of the deep transitions lab you can follow at D Transitions 2 on Twitter. That's 2 the number as opposed to 2 spell tag.

之前你们听过 Johan Schultt 的演讲。如果你想了解更多他有关变革性投资的工作，请访问 transformativeinvestment.net。如果你想跟进深度转型实验室的最新发展，请在 Twitter 上关注 D Transitions 2。注意，这里的2是数字2，而不是拼写标签。

And if you're listening at home, if you're listening in the car wherever you're listening stay well and look forward to bringing you more insights in our next podcast.

如果您正在家里、在车里或任何地方收听，祝您身体健康。期待能在下一个播客节目中为您带来更多的见解。