Live: Tesla Q1 Earnings Report Reaction (TSLA)
发布时间 2023-04-19 21:01:39 来源
Hey everybody Rob Mauer here and today we are going to be going through Tesla's Q1 earnings report. We should get the shareholder letter in about 10 minutes or so. So if you are joining this after the live stream, make sure to check in the timestamps in the description to fast forward to when we do actually get the letter. Before then we've got some things to talk about. We'll take a look at Tesla's price changes that happened last night in the United States and talk about a couple of things as we head into earnings.
大家好，我是Rob Mauer。今天我们要讨论特斯拉的Q1财报。大约在10分钟后，我们会拿到股东信。如果你是看了直播以后才加入我们的，记得查看描述中的时间戳，以便快进到我们实际拿到信的时间。在此之前，我们还有一些事情要谈。我们将研究特斯拉昨晚在美国所做的价格调整，并在进入财报时讨论一些事情。
So as I turn on the live stream here, unfortunately Tesla is dropping a little bit as we head into the close, dropped about $3 over the last 10 minutes or so. And I'm not sure exactly what's going on. Haven't been closely following the news for the last specifically 10 minutes. I'm not sure if there's anything that's broken. So if there is, just let me know in the description or in the comments or live chat. The other thing to say is that after this we will have the Q1 earnings call. So that will be at 430 Central Time. There will be a link to that down in the description as well. And then the live stream after this end should carry you over to that. So we'll listen to the call together. I'll take notes.
当我打开直播时，不幸的是，随着收盘的临近，特斯拉稍微下跌了一点，过去的10分钟左右下降了约3美元。我不确定到底发生了什么事情，过去的10分钟我没有密切关注新闻。如果有什么打破的事情，就在描述中，评论中或直播中告诉我。还有要说的是，在这之后，我们将有Q1财报电话会议。会议将在中央时间4:30举行。描述中也会有链接，这次直播结束后，我们将一起听会议。我会做笔记。
And then we'll do a reaction after we get the call. All right. So looking at that, I'm just going to keep a close eye here on the chat. Just reorganizing things a little bit. So I can look at that.
然后在我们接到电话后，我们会进行反应。好的。看着这个，我会密切关注聊天室。稍微重新组织一下，这样我就可以看到。
And we'll just see if Elon's tweeting anything. It doesn't look like anything new in that regard. So we'll just keep an eye on things. But first let's go through the price changes and see what happened in the United States in terms of pricing last night. So let me flip over here to Excel. Give me one second on that.
我们将看看埃隆是否发布了任何推文。在这方面似乎没有什么新情况。所以我们将继续关注事态发展。但首先，让我们看看昨晚美国的价格变化发生了什么。让我在这里切换到 Excel。稍等一下。
And we can see the updated price change table here. So the big changes for the Model Y, $3,000 price cuts on all versions. So the grand quote standard range, the 4680 Model Y. Now starting at $46,990 when you add the $7,500 federal tax credit on top of that. Of course, that would bring the price below $40,000 at $39,490. So probably the best deal that there's ever been on Model Y, especially considering inflation.
在这里我们可以看到更新的价格变化表。对于Model Y，大幅度降价了$3,000，包括所有版本。所以标准续航版，4680版Model Y现在的起始价格为$46,990，在加上$7,500联邦税收抵免后。当然，这会将价格降至$39,490以下，非常超值。考虑到通货膨胀，这可能是Model Y有史以来最优惠的价格。
If we do consider though where Model Y used to be priced, obviously this is a different vehicle at the time. I believe the standard range that Tesla briefly introduced and then taken out of the design studio. That was a rear wheel drive version. But there was a time when that did start at $41,990. But again, that was very short-lived for Tesla when that was introduced. Of course we do see this standard range Model Y over in China as well. But all that said, it's a very compelling price right now for the Model Y with that tax credit.
如果我们考虑一下Model Y曾经的定价，显然它是一辆不同的车型。我相信特斯拉曾经推出过标准版，后来又将其从设计工作室中撤下，那是一款后轮驱动版。但当时有一段时间，这款车的起步价为41,990美元。但特斯拉推出这款车型的时间相对来说很短。当然，我们还可以在中国看到这款标准版Model Y。但总的来说，考虑到那笔税收抵扣，现在Model Y的价格非常具有吸引力。
Then the long range, that's now below $50,000 without the credit. And then the performance also cut $3,000 now at just under $54,000. So you can see the price changes there for the long range. This is now in line with the starting price in 2021.
现在长续航型号的价格已经降至不到5万美元（不含税收抵扣）。另外，性能款也将价格下调至不到54,000美元（不含税收抵扣），可以看出长续航型号的价格变化。这个价格调整现在已经与2021年的起始价格保持一致。
So it's been as high as I think $16,000 above that at the peak. And now that of course has returned to those levels. But Model Y production a lot higher now. So I hate to say continue to expect price cuts going forward. Obviously consumers are going to be keeping their eye on those things. But just based on the historicals compared to production, it wouldn't be shocking to see that kind of a thing continue.
在顶峰时，价格曾经高达16000美元以上。现在当然已经回归到那个水平了。但Model Y的生产量现在很高。所以我不得不说，未来可以继续期待价格下降。显然，消费者也会关注这些事情。但是，基于历史记录和生产量的比较，看到这种情况继续下去并不会让人震惊。
That's Tesla, obviously ramps up against Texas, brings on more production. With the introduction of the 4680 Model Y into the design studio, that's obviously going to take some orders away from the long range. So they're going to then need to compensate with some price cuts to make that happen. And then obviously you've got the tax benefit tax credit working in Tesla's favor on those orders.
显然，特斯拉与得克萨斯州的关系升温并推动了更多的生产。随着 4680 模型 Y 被引入设计工作室，这显然会抢走一些长里程模型的订单。因此，他们将需要通过一些价格削减来弥补这种情况。同时，特斯拉也有税收优惠的税收抵免使这些订单更有利。
So you can see the changes there since 2022, down 15 down 16% hopefully cost to client. We did not take quite that level, but at least directly as materials come down and as production ramps. As for the Model 3, that now starts at $39,990. So with the credit, that is going to be right around $36,000. Of course the rear wheel drive credit got cut in half. So not super surprising to see Tesla now have reduced the price since that happened by first $1,000 right before it. And now a couple thousand dollars after. So getting close to making up that difference from the price, including the tax credit prior to the adjustment in terms of the having of the tax credit eligibility for the rear wheel drive Model 3.
你可以看到自2022年以来的变化，成本希望对客户降低了15到16％。我们没有达到那个水平，但至少随着材料成本下降和生产增加，我们已经直接减少了成本。至于Model 3，现在的起步价是39,990美元。因此，通过抵扣，价格将在36,000美元左右。当然，后驱车型的抵扣减半了。所以，Tesla现在降低了价格并在此之前首先降低了1,000美元。现在又下调了几千美元。因此，就后驱车型的税收抵免资格而言，价格已经接近恢复到调整前的价格。
Still though $2,000 higher starting price than it was at the start of 2021. So again, similar situation there as we go along wouldn't be terribly surprised if those continued to come down. And that's okay. We'll get a look into how that looks for Tesla's margin today to get a better understanding of how that's going to influence the rest of the year in terms of the financials.
虽然与2021年初相比起点价高出2000美元，但情况类似，随着时间推移，如果价格继续下降，不会感到特别惊讶。这很好。我们将从特斯拉今天的利润率中获取信息，以更好地了解这将如何影响今年的财务状况。
So the Model S next kind of interesting no price cut there yet. You know we've talked about those. It seemed like it was a little bit tougher of a quarter in the first quarter based on the delivery numbers compared to production. Obviously I think a 9,000 vehicle spread there. But some of those vehicles in transit too. So a little bit difficult to say with these not being eligible for the tax credit though effectively for vehicle, you know, for customers that are eligible for that tax credit.
所以，Model S目前没有降价，但很有意思。我们已经谈论过这个问题了。第一季度似乎是一个比较困难的季度，根据交货数量与生产数量相比。显然，这里有9,000辆车的差距。但其中一些车辆还在运输中。因此，对于符合此税收抵免的资格的客户来说，这些车辆并不具备该税收抵免的资格。
Does widen the gap between a Model 3 and a Model Y or a Model S and a Model X. And there definitely are people that are in that boat kind of comparing those vehicles. So just makes a little bit more difficult to go up. So with the inventory potentially building on those again, wouldn't be surprised to see the S and the X cut and actually a little bit surprised to not see them alongside the 3 in the Y here.
这会加大Model 3和Model Y或Model S和Model X之间的差距。肯定会有一些人在比较这些车型，因此升级会更加困难一些。随着库存的潜在增长，不会感到惊讶看到S和X被取消，而不和3和Y一起出现。
All right. So we got about three minutes left. I do want to flip over quick to the forecast that we went through yesterday. Hopefully this is all set up correctly. I was just kind of playing around with things. I think it's all good. Once we get the actuals, we'll come in here and fill these out. I was the best part of the earnings day watching me fill the spreadsheet out. But try to get that in there so we can have a little bit easier context for what Tesla reports.
好的，那么我们还有大约三分钟。我想快速转到昨天我们浏览的预测。希望这些都设置正确了。我只是试着玩了一下，但我认为一切都好。一旦我们得到实际数据，我们就会填写这些预测。在盈利日里，我是最快乐的部分，观看我填写电子表格。但是尽量把它放进去，这样我们就可以更容易地了解特斯拉的报告。
One thing to keep an eye on though, as we talked about yesterday in the analyst compiled consensus, we didn't get a breakout for regulatory credits. So it looks like that might be a little bit of a foreshadow for Tesla, maybe no longer reporting that specifically in that way, which could make some of these calculations, particularly automotive gross margin, excluding credits down here, which is one of the first things we normally look at. We may not be able to get that calculation this time around.
需要注意的一件事是，正如我们昨天在分析师汇编的共识中所讨论的，我们没有获得关于监管信用点的突破。因此，看起来特斯拉可能不再以这种方式特别报告监管信用点，这可能会使一些计算变得更加困难，特别是汽车毛利率，不包括信用点。这是我们通常首先关注的几个要素之一。这一次我们可能无法得到这样的计算。
And there's maybe even potential that Tesla would, they said last quarter that they're going to stop focusing on sort of automotive profit or gross margins and really just focus on operating margins. So there may be potential that Tesla could no longer break out these buckets between automotive energy and services and others. I'm not sure exactly what the requirements would be in terms of the business segment size where Tesla would have to report it. If anyone has more insight on that, definitely welcome that and the chat or the comments to that. But it looks like we could be in for some reporting changes.
特斯拉有可能不再按汽车、能源、服务及其它来报告业务表现。他们上个季度说过要停止关注汽车利润和毛利，而是将重点放在运营利润上。我不确定特斯拉在业务部门规模上需要报告什么要求，如果有人对此有更多了解，欢迎在聊天或评论中分享。但看来我们可能会见证一些报告变化。
So as we see what Tesla does report, we'll have to keep an eye on that and see how that affects how our recaps look. That can also affect the average selling price calculation because historicals that I've got here, that excludes regulatory credits. So if that's no longer a broken out item, then we would have to adjust that to be inclusive of it, which obviously is probably not the best gauge for the actual selling price of the vehicles. So it'll be interesting.
因此，我们需要关注特斯拉报告的内容，并观察它对我们的总结报告的影响。这也可能影响平均售价的计算，因为我手头的历史数据不包含监管信贷。如果这不再是一项明细账目，我们将不得不将其包含在内，这显然可能不是实际车辆售价的最佳判断标准。所以这会很有趣。
You know, there may be some things that we can have to work through with this report as Tesla maybe tries to bring it up a little bit. And one of the things I could think of with that is that Tesla wants to reduce the focus on automotive margins potentially as they are cutting prices. The other possibility is that Tesla wants to reduce the focus on regulatory credits. As with the inflation reduction act, they are now going to be credits that Tesla is potentially generating for battery production and battery assembly. And as they do that, that's going to come into the financials. We don't really know exactly where that's going to be reported at. But that might be another reason that Tesla is re-evaluating how the reporting structure is.
你知道，也许有些事情我们需要通过这份报告来解决，因为特斯拉可能会努力提高报告的质量。我能想到其中一个问题是，特斯拉希望减少对汽车利润的关注，因为他们在降价。另一个可能性是，特斯拉希望减少对监管信用的关注。随着通胀降低法案的实施，他们现在可能会为电池生产和组装产生信用。随着这一情况的发生，这也将反映在财务报表中。我们并不确定这将如何被报告，但这可能是特斯拉重新评估报告结构的另一个原因。
If they are, we don't know that for sure. It's just again, kind of what seems to have been foreshadowed a little bit yesterday. So keep an eye on that. But for now, let's go back to, I want to take a quick look on that note at something that Zach said on the last call. Let me flip back to the browser here. Fortunately, just lost the place. So in terms of those battery production credits, Zach was asked about this on the last call. And he said, we think that it's going to be on the order of 150 million to 250 million per quarter.
如果是那样，我们并不确定。昨天只是有一点点前兆。因此请继续关注这个情况。但现在，我想快速看一下Zach在上次通话中提到的一些事情。让我在浏览器上翻回去看看。不幸的是，我刚才忘了在哪里了。在关于电池生产信用的问题上，上次 Z ach被问及此事。他说，我们认为，每个季度的生产信用金额将达到1.5亿到2.5亿美元左右。
So in the estimates that I had that we walked through yesterday, I don't really have that broken out specifically. I'm kind of just leaving that as a potential cushion because I don't have a good understanding of how that's going to be reported with the timing for recognition of those things is going to be. So I'm kind of just waiting to see what information we get from Tesla on that. But that could provide some upside, maybe five, ten cents or so, probably closer to five cents in terms of earnings per share above what my forecast is. But obviously that's pretty close to a margin of error.
在我昨天提供的估计中，我没有具体分解这一点。我只是将它作为一种潜在的垫子留着，因为我不太了解它将如何被报告，并且对于这些事情的认可的时间我也不十分清楚。所以我只是等待特斯拉提供的信息。但是这可能会提供一些收益，可能会增加五到十分钱，可能更接近五分钱，相对于我预测的每股收益。但明显地，这非常接近于误差范围。
All right. So we are now at Market Close. You were the stock ended up here and I doubt we've got the report quite yet, but we'll refresh on that as well. Usually it takes five or ten minutes to get into market. You know, I usually have people in the chat trolling me and saying it's out when it's not. So I guess you can do that if you want, but I would hope you guys want to be nice to me.
好的，现在我们已经到了收市时刻。你的股票在这里收盘了，我怀疑我们还没有得到报告，但我们也会刷新一下。通常需要五到十分钟才能进入市场。你知道的，我通常有人在聊天中嘲笑我，说出了消息，但实际上并没有。所以如果你愿意，你也可以这样做，但我希望你们能对我友善一些。
It actually helped me because it's kind of hard sometimes to get a view. Sometimes I see it first on the Tesla Twitter feed. Usually we can kind of get a gauge for when it's out from the after hours movement, which we don't have any yet. So in the meantime, hey, like the stream, I do appreciate that.
这实际上对我有所帮助，因为有时候很难获取观点。有时候我先在特斯拉的推特里看到它。通常我们可以从之后的股价波动中大致了解什么时候发布，但我们目前还没有这方面的信息。所以在此期间，嗨，喜欢这篇文章，我很感激。
I think we've got what we got, five thousand people here and 300 likes. Those ratios are not my favorite sometimes. So I do appreciate that, but we can go back maybe and just kind of go through the forecast that we talked about yesterday. I do just want to make sure that we're staying cognizant here is necessarily no exactly when it's going to come out. But it's also not the most exciting thing to sit here and watch me refresh.
我觉得我们已经得到了我们应得的，这里有五千人，但只有三百个喜欢。有时候这个比例不是我最喜欢的，所以我感激这个数据。但也许我们可以回去，简单地回顾一下昨天我们讨论过的预测。我只想确保我们留心，不是完全确切地知道它何时会发布。但是坐在这里看我刷新屏幕也不是最令人兴奋的事情。
If you are just tuning in again, we're still waiting for the letter. After this, we will have the earnings call and the link for that will be down in the description. So I'll do my usual setup there where we kind of take notes as Tesla does the call and then talk about it afterwards. So just make sure to tune in for that at 430 central time. So about an hour and a half from now.
如果你刚才才开始关注，我们仍在等待信件。之后，我们将进行盈利电话会议，相关链接在下方描述中。所以我会像往常一样，在特斯拉进行电话会议时做笔记，并在会后进行讨论。所以请确保在中央时间4:30收听。现在距离那时还有大约一个半小时。
Wow, that acting asking for likes actually worked. We've got 1200. I don't like to do that every day because it's annoying. But if you guys can just assume that I said that every day, that would be awesome. We've got a ross over there on Yahoo Finance. Got some Elon Gifts. So I don't think we've got anything yet, but if anyone has any questions, feel free to throw those on there.
哇，那个请求点赞的表演竟然成功了。我们获得了1200个赞。我不想每天都这样做，因为这很烦人。但如果你们可以假定我每天都这么说，那就太好了。我们在雅虎财经上有一个Ross。有一些埃隆礼物。所以我不认为我们有任何问题，但如果有人有任何问题，请随意提出。
Oh, it stocks up a little bit after hours. So first thing we do when we get the letter is just go through kind of the Tesla's comments, which we've got it right now. And then we'll take a look at the financials. And with the stock being up, let's hope that means some good news. It's up about 1% as we open up the letter here.
嗯，盘后股价稍微上涨了一点。所以我们第一件事就是看一下现在得到的特斯拉的评论，然后再看一下财务报表。股价上涨了，希望这意味着有一些好消息。在我们打开信件的时候，股价上涨了约1%。
All right, so 11.4% operating margin. So I already know that's within 10 basis points on my forecast. Gapnet income I believe is also right on. So earnings per share should be pretty close. We'll come back to read the letter as we get the rest of it. But yeah, so I think analyst consensus actually dead on I think and I was a penny short of the EPS. So hopefully that's good in terms of I think you know, people probably having some concerns as we go into this report that it could be a huge mess.
好的，所以运营利润率为11.4%。我已经知道这比我的预测高约10个基点。我相信Gap的净收入也是正确的。因此每股收益应该非常接近。我们将在读完信件后回来看。但是，我认为分析师共识实际上是完全正确的，而我则在EPS上短了一分钱。希望这对于进入此报告可能是一团糟的人们来说是好的。
But this hopefully means that Tesla still has pretty decent profit margins despite those price cuts. Obviously this is going to be down year over year, but hopefully this can help us establish kind of a new base that we build from from here. So let's see, we do have a breakout for revenues. We've got total revenues. I just want to kind of get a gauge get a sense of, you know, what might have changed here. I don't see regulatory credits right off the bat. Okay, so huge negative impact from foreign exchange. And again, we'll come back to these. I'm just trying to get a sense of what might be different in the reporting. Cyber truck and tooling. Not sure if that's different.
但愿这意味着尽管调低了价格，特斯拉仍然有相当不错的利润率。显然，这一年的盈利会相对去年下降，但希望这能够帮助我们建立一个新的收入基础。所以现在我们来看一下收入数据。我们有总收入，我只想了解一下这里可能发生了什么变化。我一开始没有看到监管信用。看起来外汇汇率的影响会很大。再次强调，我只是想了解这份报告可能有哪些变化。关于Cyber truck和工具方面，我也不太确定是否有变化。
All right. So we'll head back to the top after we kind of just level set with the financials relatively in line with expectations. Obviously, there's tons of things under the covers that can cause changes there from what we, you know, sort of forecast. But let's just read the summary here. So in the current macro economic environment, we see this year as a unique opportunity for Tesla. As many car makers are working through challenges with the unit economics of their EV programs, we aim to leverage our position as a cost leader.
好的。我们在与财务状况相对一致的情况下，将回到开头。显然，有许多因素可以导致我们的预测发生变化。但是让我们看一下总结。在当前的宏观经济环境下，我们认为今年是特斯拉的独特机会。许多汽车制造商正在努力解决电动汽车项目的单车经济学挑战，我们旨在利用我们作为成本领袖的位置。
We are focused on rapidly growing production investments in autonomy and vehicle software and remaining on track with our growth investments. Our near term pricing strategy considers a long term view on per vehicle profitability, given the potential lifetime value of a Tesla vehicle through autonomy, supercharging, connectivity and service. We expect that our product pricing will continue to evolve upwards or downwards depending on a number of factors.
我们专注于快速增长自主驾驶和车辆软件生产投资，并保持与我们的成长投资计划同步。我们的短期定价策略考虑了车辆利润的长期观点，考虑到通过自主驾驶、超级充电、连接和服务为特斯拉车辆带来的潜在生命周期价值。我们预计，我们的产品定价将根据一些因素继续向上或向下发展。
Although we implemented price reductions on many vehicles across regions in the first quarter, our operating margins reduced at a manageable rate. We expect ongoing cost reduction of our vehicles, including improved production efficiency at our newest factories and lower logistics costs and remain focused on operating leverage as we scale.
尽管我们在第一季度在多个地区对许多车辆实施了价格降低，但我们的运营利润下降得可控。我们预计继续降低车辆成本，包括在我们最新的工厂提高生产效率和降低物流成本，并专注于运营杠杆效应的提高。
Alright, so basically so far just saying, hey, it's a unique period of time right now. Tesla is going to continue to drive unit economics as they always have and not worry too much about the specific margins on the vehicles at this point in time as there is opportunity on each of these cars to earn money later on in the future. And of course, as they generate scale, if the market returns to a more favorable position, Tesla's got that scale ready to go to take advantage of that.
好的，基本上现在我们只是在说，这是一个独特的时期。特斯拉将继续像以往一样推动单位经济，目前不会太担心车辆的具体利润率，因为未来每辆车都有赚钱的机会。当然，随着规模的扩大，如果市场回归到更有利的位置，特斯拉已准备好利用这个规模来充分利用。
Alright, so we are rapidly growing energy storage production capacity at our mega factory in laythrupp and we recently announced a mega factory in Shanghai. We are also continuing to execute on our product roadmap, including Cybertruck, our next generation vehicle platform, autonomy and other AI-enabled products. Our balance sheet and that income enable us to continue to make these capital expenditures in line with our future growth. In this environment, we believe it makes sense to push forward to ensure we lay a proper foundation for the best possible future.
好的，现在我们正在Laythrupp的巨型工厂快速扩展能源储存生产能力，同时我们最近还宣布了在上海建立巨型工厂。我们也在继续按计划推进我们的产品路线图，包括Cybertruck、下一代车型平台、自动驾驶以及其他AI-enabled产品。我们的资产负债表和收入支持我们继续进行这些资本支出，以确保我们未来的增长符合预期。在这样的环境中，我们认为推进是有意义的，以确保我们为可能的最好未来打下合适的基础。
So I like that summary a lot. I think it does a good job of summarizing a lot of the things that we've been talking about this period of time and about Tesla's strategy in a pretty clear and hopefully understandable way for investors. Now that doesn't mean that it's not a difficult period. It is more difficult, certainly than what Tesla has been facing for 12 months, although as I say that, there's been a lot of challenges during that period of time with you with everything COVID-related. But it's a uniquely different situation now.
我非常喜欢这个总结。我认为它很好地概括了我们在这段时间内讨论的许多事情以及特斯拉的战略，对于投资者来说这样表述很清楚，也易于理解。但这并不意味着这是一个简单的时期。它比特斯拉过去12个月面临的挑战更加艰难，虽然我这么说时必须承认，这段时间里面也有许多与COVID相关的挑战。但现在我们所面临的是一个独特的不同情况。
Alright, so profitability, we kind of covered that. Cash, operating cash flow of 2.5 billion. So that's great for free cash flow, 0.4 billion, 0.2 increase in cash and cash in cash and investments in Q1. Cyber truck factory tooling is on track, producing alpha versions. So I'm not sure we'd heard production beta, production beta, so I don't know if that's different. I don't know. We'll have to hear from Tesla on the call on that. Model Y, the best selling vehicle in Europe in Q1, at Model Y, the best selling vehicle in the US and Q1. So on track to potentially be the best selling vehicle in the world, obviously we're missing Asia in that update. But hopefully, you know, if Tesla can track to be the best in both of those markets that would put Tesla in contention for that, or the Model Y in contention for that later on this year.
好的，我们已经覆盖了盈利能力。现金流方面，第一季度运营现金流为25亿美元，这对自由现金流的0.4亿美元和现金及投资的0.2亿美元的增长非常好。Cybertruck工厂工具制造进展顺利，正在生产Alpha版本，关于生产Beta版本的进展我们尚未听到消息，可能需要在特斯拉的电话会议上听取更多信息。Model Y在第一季度成为欧洲最畅销的车型，在美国也是最畅销的车型。因此，可以有望成为全球最畅销的车型，当然，这次更新中还未涉及亚洲市场。但是如果特斯拉能够在这两个市场中保持领先，那么Model Y在今年晚些时候可能进入这个竞争领域。
Alright, so right off the bat, automotive revenue is coming in a little bit lower. I notice then what I'd expected, energy, generation and storage coming in higher, services and others coming in higher, putting total revenues pretty much in line with my expectations, gross profit again pretty close as well. Operating expenses, I think are a little bit lighter than I had forecast. And then EBITDA and the rest of the bottom line stuff should be pretty much in line, since we know EPS was in line.
好的，那么首先要说，汽车收入略微低于预期。然而我发现，能源生产和储存方面的收入更高，服务和其他方面也更高，这使得总收入基本符合我的预期，毛利润也很接近。运营费用比我预计的要稍微轻一些。我们知道每股收益符合预期，因此EBITDA和其他底线数据应该也基本符合预期。
So capital expenditures, you can see Tesla is still continuing to spend. You know, they've been at the $1.8 billion level for kind of the last four quarters. Now moving that up even in this challenging environment to 2.1 billion. So significant capital expenditures, Tesla continuing to execute on the growth plan. Maybe this is ticking up now a little bit because of Cybertruck. Not anything significant there for gigamexico quite yet. So that would be my best guess in addition to things like, you know, continuing to grow 4680 production, continuing to expand energy, things like that.
在资本支出方面，可以看出特斯拉仍在继续投资。过去四个季度，他们一直保持在18亿美元的水平，现在即使在这个艰难的环境下也提高到了21亿美元。这是重要的资本支出，特斯拉继续执行增长计划。可能是因为Cybertruck的原因，现在有点上升。目前对于Gigamexico来说还没有什么显著的影响。这可能是因为他们继续扩大4680的生产和扩展能源等方面的原因。
Alright, so financial summary, revenue grew 24% year over year to 23.3 billion, which is that? Yeah, that should be an all time. Nope, okay. It's comparing not over revenue. So a little bit lower sequentially about a billion dollar decline, but this would be the second highest revenue quarter for Tesla then historically. So they say that revenue growth was driven by growth in vehicles deliveries growth in other parts of the business reduced average selling price year over year, excluding the foreign exchange impact and negative foreign exchange impact of 0.8 billion dollars. So as I had talked about yesterday, that's just something I don't have a really good handle on estimating. And that's probably what's driving the automotive revenue down there versus, you know, my forecast.
好的，财务总结，营收同比增长24％，达到233亿美元，是吗？是的，应该是历史最高的。不是，好的。这不是对比营收。所以降低了约10亿美元，但这仍将是特斯拉历史上第二高的营收季度。他们说，营收增长是由于交付量和其他业务部门的增长所推动，排除外汇影响和0.8亿美元的负面外汇影响下的平均售价同比下降。就像我昨天谈到的那样，这是我无法准确估算的问题。这可能是导致汽车营收下降的原因，而不是我的预测。
And I think if you exclude that, it's probably the ASP would have even come a little bit higher than my expectation. And then obviously that would flow through the rest of the financials, which would also drive things higher than my expectations.
我认为如果排除那个因素，东半球的ASP（平均销售价格）可能比我的预期还要高一点。那么显然这将影响其他财务数据，从而推动公司的表现比我的预期更好。
Now that being said, you can see here, we don't see regulatory credits broken out unless I'm, you know, missing that later in the report. So that those could have been high this quarter to kind of help show stronger margins. And if those aren't things that can be repeated going forward, we could see, you know, a little bit of a drop.
话说回来，你可以看到，在这份报告中，除非在后面我看漏了，否则我们不会单独列出监管信用。所以，这个季度监管信用可能很高，以帮助展示更强的利润率。而如果这些策略不能持续，我们可能会看到利润率有所下降。
And as I say that, I agreed through profitability. And we see lower credit revenue. So that's actually a really good thing to me.
当我这样说的时候，我的意思是我们同意经济效益。我们看到了较低的信用收入。所以这对我来说实际上是一个非常好的事情。
I think that, you know, last quarter wasn't too high. I think it was in the $400 million range. So if we're seeing these results without huge boost for regulatory credit revenue, that means that this would be something that is more sustainable going forward. And as Tesla continues to cut prices as we have seen this quarter, they do have room to work with, especially as costs hopefully come down pretty significantly as foreign exchange impact potentially reduces and as production scales.
我认为上个季度的销售额并不高，大概在4亿美元左右。所以，如果我们在没有获得大量监管信贷收入的情况下看到这样的销售结果，这意味着这种情况在未来是可以持续的。随着特斯拉继续降低价格，正如我们在本季度所看到的那样，他们还有余地可以操作，尤其是如果成本能够因外汇影响的降低和生产规模的扩大而明显下降的话。
So I think that's, you know, to me, that's a really positive sign. It's just kind of strange that Tesla stopped reporting that.
我认为这是个很积极的迹象。但是很奇怪的是，特斯拉停止报告这个信息了。
All right. So after hours, we're now down 1.4 percent kind of interesting reaction. Maybe there's some other things in here that are being taken as a little bit more negative. But so far, I'm pretty happy with what I'm seeing. You know, nothing, no huge red flags. I don't think that we weren't anticipating.
好的。经过数小时的交易，我们现在已经下跌了1.4%，这是一个有趣的反应。也许有一些其他的因素被视为更加消极。但到目前为止，我对我所看到的还是比较满意的。你知道的，没有什么大的红色警示。我认为我们预计到的情况。
Both in vehicle deliveries, so despite margin headwind for under utilization of new factories. So we talked about that. Berlin and Texas, even last quarter hitting those significant production milestones still basically like 25, 30 percent of their production capacity. So tons of room to grow on that. And that's going to significantly drive costs down.
尽管新工厂未充分利用导致边际利润下降，在交付车辆方面，两者情况类似。我们已经谈论过了。柏林和德克萨斯，即使在上一个季度达到了重要的生产里程碑，但基本上只使用了25％至30％的生产能力。因此还有很大的增长空间。这将显著降低成本。
Gross profit growth in energy business. So that's really good to see. Hopefully we'll get that breakdown a little bit later in the financials. Reduced ASP, higher raw material commodity logistics and warranty costs. So that's an interesting item because I think people have been expecting that to come down. And I think that's actually a positive thing because these are things that are sort of outside of Tesla's control, not 100 percent, but a portion of those costs are outside of Tesla's control. Maybe be excluding warranty there a little bit. But if we think about those things, obviously we've seen spot prices on a lot of raw materials come down logistics. This should be something that improves for Tesla over time as Texas and Berlin ramp.
能源业务的毛利增长，这真的很棒。希望我们稍后能在财务报表中看到更详细的数据。减少了ASP，增加了原材料、商品物流和保修成本。这是一个有趣的事情，因为人们一直在期待这个成本下降。我认为这实际上是一个积极的信号，因为这些成本在一定程度上超出了特斯拉的控制范围。保修可能是个例外。但是，如果我们考虑这些问题，显然我们已经看到了很多原材料的现货价格下降了，物流方面也应该会随着得克萨斯和柏林的发展而逐渐改善，这将在未来为特斯拉带来好处。
So a lot of these things can come down later on, which can support for the price reductions like what we're probably likely to see. Then cash, we talk a little bit about cash increase sequentially by 2.2 billion. 200 million. So 0.2 billion. So 22.4 billion and Q1, it may be driven by free cash flow. So they did repay a little bit more debt this quarter, even though that is obviously quite low.
这些事情中很多都可能在后期得以解决，这会支持价格折扣的出现，这也是我们可能会看到的情况。现金方面，我们谈论了现金的增加，逐步增加了22.4亿美元，其中2亿美元是自由现金流推动的。即使本季度偿还债务仍然相当低，但他们还是还了更多的债务。
Operational summary shouldn't be any surprises here. We already got the production and delivery numbers, no change on the delivery numbers. Previously, we had seen Tesla adjust those a little bit, maybe by half a percent or so, but no change there.
运营总结不应该有任何惊喜。我们已经得到了生产和交付数量，没有交付数量上的变化。以前，我们曾见Tesla将其进行了微调，可能只有0.5％左右，但在这里没有变化。
Days of inventory. So we had previously calculated this and right around 15. I think we may have calculated 16 just based on, you know, we're rounding to integers here. So we don't necessarily know the exact vehicle count that we're building off of. But 15, not actually a huge increase quarter of a quarter, despite production outpacing deliveries by 18,000 vehicles.
库存天数。我们之前已经计算过，大约是15天。也许基于我们在这里进行整数舍入的缘故，我们可能会计算出16天。因此我们并不确切知道我们所基于的确切车辆数。尽管生产超过交付了18,000辆车，但一个季度内库存天数只有轻微增加，只有15天，并不算很大。
All right. And then solar and storage. So probably one of the most exciting parts of this report, 3.9 gigawatt hours of storage deployed. So I had had three, three and a half in there. I lowered it to 3.1. Analyst consensus was about 2.1 if I recall correctly. We'll take a look at that. But 3.9 gigawatt hours, that's super exciting. You know, annualized over 15 gigawatt hours a year run rate in this first quarter. So exciting to see that. And hopefully that continues to ramp with alongside Blathem.
好的。接下来是太阳能和储能。也许这份报告中最令人兴奋的部分之一是部署了3.9吉瓦时的储能。我之前估计是三个，三个半小时，但我将其降低到了3.1小时。如果我没记错的话，分析师的共识大概是2.1小时。我们会看看这些数字。但3.9吉瓦时的数据非常令人振奋。在这个第一季度中年化运行率为15吉瓦时，看到这个结果真是太激动人心了。希望随着Blathem的推进，这个趋势会继续上升。
I did just get a super chat saying regulatory credits down at 500 or regulatory credits worth 521 million dollars. So that this must be talking year over year, which I should have put together. So thanks for that super chat. Appreciate that. Appreciate that Alan.
我刚刚收到了一条超级聊天信息，说监管信用额减少了500或价值5.21亿美元的监管信用。因此，这必须是在谈论年度收入时发生的，这一点我本应该想明白的。所以，感谢这个超级聊天信息，谢谢你，Alan。
And last year, as we talked about, it was like 637 million. So 521 million this quarter. Still a significant number up a little bit sequentially. A little bit higher than what I maybe would have hoped to see higher than my forecast for sure. Obviously though, some of that being offset by the regular tour or by the foreign exchange impact. So, you know, those two things in combination, you're still washing out negative from the impact of foreign exchange.
去年我们谈到，销售额大约为6.37亿美元。而本季度销售额为5.21亿美元，仍然是一个相当大的数字，逐步增长。相比我原本的预测，销售额略高一些，但还是受到常规旅游和外汇影响的抵消。因此，这两个因素的共同作用，仍然抵消了外汇汇率的负面影响。
All right. So energy really good. Obviously a little bit of a drop there in solar. Sometimes that can happen in Q1, you know, unsurprisingly, probably a little bit seasonal on the solar installs. Test the locations, mobile service fleet, continuously growth there. Same thing with supercharger and service or supercharger locations.
好的，能源表现非常好。很明显太阳能方面有些下降。在第一季度这种情况可能会发生，太阳能安装有一些季节性变化。移动服务车队和测试地点仍在持续增长。超级充电和服务站也是同样的情况。
All right. So I do want to just really quickly pull up the last report. That's always kind of good to take a look at how this production capacity chart changes. So we're looking at the Q4 report here right now. Try to put that in the same spot. Try to make sure I'm not covering that as I sometimes tend to do. All right. So Q1, Q4. They look similar except Berlin has now expanded to a greater than 350 production capacity listed. That was greater than 250,000 before. So with the run rate, we know Berlin hit the 5,000 vehicle per week number. Tesla telling us right now that the capacity that is currently installed is higher than that which isn't too surprising. You know, obviously when we look at numbers from Shanghai, Tesla has a number of different months at 80,000, which is annualizing more towards the million mark. So they're significantly understating Shanghai. And I think probably the same thing with Berlin and Texas too. I think we know that the scale for those is kind of intended to eventually be about 500,000 per year. But still nice to see a little bit of an increase there.
好的，那么我们现在先来迅速查看一下上一份报告。看看生产能力的表格有什么改变是很有益的。我们现在看的是Q4报告，尽量放在相同的地方查看，确保我不会挡住那个图表。好的，Q1和Q4看起来很相似，除了柏林的产能现在已经扩大到了超过350台车的生产能力。之前是超过250,000台。从运营数据来看，我们知道柏林已经达到了每周5,000辆车的生产量，而特斯拉现在告诉我们，目前安装的生产能力比这还要高，这并不令人惊讶。当我们看到上海的数字时，可以发现，特斯拉在各个月份的产量已经接近80,000，这意味着年产能将超过一百万。因此，他们在上海的产能显然被严重低估了。我认为柏林和得克萨斯也是同样的情况。我认为我们已经知道它们的规模最终将达到每年约50万辆车，但看到柏林的产能有了一点增长还是很令人高兴的。
In terms of the status, I don't know if we've got any changes there. I don't think so. So those all seem to be the same. So let me make sure I close the correct report. And we'll read through what they've got to say here. So in Q1, we produced a record number of vehicles thanks to ongoing ramps at our factories in Austin and Berlin. Remain committed to reducing the percentage of vehicles delivered in the third month and smoothing deliveries throughout the quarter, which will help reduce cost per vehicle while increasing intrinsic inventory at the end of the quarter. So still unwinding the wave.
关于公司的状况，我不清楚是否有任何变化。我认为没有变化。所以这些似乎都是一样的。所以让我确认关闭正确的报告。我们将阅读他们在这里所说的内容。所以在第一季度，由于奥斯汀和柏林工厂的持续升级，我们生产了创纪录的车辆数量。我们仍致力于减少第三个月交付的车辆百分比，并在整个季度内平稳交付，这将有助于降低每辆车的成本，同时增加季度结束时的固有库存量。所以我们仍在消化浪潮。
Model Y was the best selling non-pick up vehicle in the US and Q1. We showcased 4680 sell production at our 2023 investor day. Production rate continued to improve sequential in Q1, which no surprise given the introduction of the 4680 model wide to the design studio. In the equipment installation for CyberTruck production at Gigatex's, continuing Q1 and remains on track. So a lot of people will be happy to see that. I'm sure Shanghai sense our Shanghai factory has been successfully running near full capacity for several months. We do not expect meaningful increase of weekly production run rate. We launched sales in Thailand, a new market supply out of Shanghai. Thus far, the reception has been very positive. Gigatex Shanghai remains our main export port, our main export hub. Nothing too crazy there.
Model Y是美国非皮卡车市场上销售最佳的车型之一，在第一季度大受欢迎。我们在2023年投资者日展示了4680电池的生产情况。由于引入了4680电池模块，这导致Q1的生产率继续顺利提高，这并不令人惊讶。CyberTruck在Gigatex进行的设备安装工作仍在Q1顺利进行，进展如常，这一点让很多人感到高兴。我们的上海工厂运转至全负荷生产数月，因此我们不指望生产率会有更大幅度的提升。我们在泰国开拓了新市场，我们从上海工厂向这个市场供应汽车，至今为止，市场反响非常积极。Gigatex上海仍然是我们的主要出口港口和中转站。总体而言，没有什么过于惊人的信息。
You can see market share continue in your eyes. We've created a flat line a little bit there in China, but ticking up as we've seen those price cuts take effect. For your production line, in Germany produced over 5,000 vehicles a week towards the NKQ1 and Q1 2023, Model Y became the best selling vehicle of any kind in Europe, EUE, FTA and UK. So awesome milestone. Core technology, autopilot and full self-driving, continuing to see the increase in cumulative miles driven with FSD beta. So continuing up and to the right, obviously highway miles now being introduced, that's going to hopefully even accelerate that even further for the second quarter as more vehicles now have version 11. I'm not sure exactly when that cut off would have been for the end of the first quarter. I have to go back and see on that. But Tesla says the growing fleet of FSD beta users has an exponential impact on total FSD beta miles driven with over 150 million miles to date and counting. This level of data collection is unprecedented in the industry.
您可以看到市场份额在您的眼中继续增长。我们在中国有一点平稳，但随着我们看到这些降价产生效果，份额正在上升。至于您的生产线，德国在NKQ1和Q1 2023期间每周生产超过5,000辆车，Model Y成为欧洲、EUE、FTA和英国销量最佳的任何类型的车辆，这是一个了不起的里程碑。核心技术自动驾驶和全自动驾驶不断看到自动驾驶测试版的汽车累积里程数增加。所以显然向上延伸，现在已经引入了高速公路里程，这有望在第二季度进一步加速，因为更多的车辆现在已经采用了第11版本。我不确定第一季度末的截止日期是什么时候，必须回去看一下。但是特斯拉表示，不断增长的FSD测试版用户群体对总FSD测试版驾驶里程数有着指数级的影响，迄今为止已经有超过1.5亿英里的里程。这种数据收集水平在该行业中是史无前例的。
Mass collection of diverse data sets is essential for AI based approach. The only approach we believe can work for scalable autonomy for scalable autonomy.
收集多样化的数据集对于基于人工智能的方法至关重要。我们相信，只有这种方法才能实现可扩展的自治。
NKQ1 we enabled the latest FSD beta software stack for highway driving. Vehicle and other software. While our various vehicles provide different range acceleration of vehicle size, we believe the Tesla software experience is the best in class across all vehicles. Even the base model 3 offers seamless integration of vehicle controls, safety and security features, and a full suite of connectivity and entertainment features. And ongoing software updates bring yet more functionality over time.
我们为高速公路驾驶启用了最新的FSD测试版软件堆栈，包括车辆和其他软件。虽然我们的不同车型在车辆尺寸和加速等方面提供不同的选择，但我们相信特斯拉的软件体验是所有车型中最好的。即使是基本款的Model 3也提供了无缝整合的车辆控制、安全和安全功能，并配备全套的连接和娱乐功能。不断更新的软件还将带来更多功能。
Recently we launched homegrown recruitment and employee health and safety platforms as part of the broader Tesla OS ecosystem more details on page 12. And then what looks like we've got just a recap of a slide that we've seen at investor day of just the cost structural cost to clients on the model 3 since really they started to hit volume production back in 2018. So we've talked about that previously, which I believe this is probably kind of a recap of that as well, talking about the 48 volt transition to with the cybershark. So stuff that we've talked about from investor day. Cost reduction remains the main enabler of delivering on our mission.
最近，我们推出了自主招聘和员工健康安全平台，作为更广泛的特斯拉OS生态系统的一部分，更多细节在第12页。然后，我们看到了一个投资者日幻灯片的概括，涉及Model 3自从2018年开始大量生产以来，给客户带来的结构成本。我们之前曾谈论过此事，我认为这可能也是对此事的回顾，讨论了48伏特过渡与Cybershark的问题。这些都是我们在投资者日讨论过的内容。成本削减仍然是实现我们使命的主要手段。
Alright, other highlights starting off right there with the energy storage. It's awesome to see and Tesla says of course they improved profitability too. So energy storage employment increased 360% year over year in Q1 to 3.9 gigawatt hours the highest level of deployments we have achieved due to ongoing mega factory ramp. Ramp of our 40 gigawatt hour mega pack factory in Lafayette California has been successful with still more room to reach full capacity. This mega factory, this mega pack factory will be the first of many. So not just too many, we recently announced our second 40 gigawatt hour mega factory this time in Shanghai with construction starting later this year.
好的，我们从能量储存开始谈起。可以看到，特斯拉以前公布的利润已经得到了改善，这非常令人兴奋。在2021年第一季度，由于巨大工厂的不断升级，能源储存的就业增长了360％，达到了3.9千兆瓦时，也是我们已经实现的最高部署水平。我们在加利福尼亚拉斐特的40千兆瓦时巨型装置工厂也已经顺利运转，并且还有更多的空间来实现其满负载运行。这个巨型装置工厂不仅仅是一个，我们最近还宣布了第二个40千兆瓦时的巨型装置工厂，这次是上海，预计今年晚些时候开始建设。
Solar deployments increased 40% year over year to 67 megawatts, but to clients quenchally in the quarter predominantly due to volatile weather and other factors. So seasonality mainly in addition, the solar industry has been impacted by supply chain challenges.
太阳能电站部署量同比增长40%至67兆瓦，但季度内由于天气不稳定和其他因素，主要是由于季节性因素，客户有些不稳定。此外，太阳能行业还受到供应链方面的挑战的影响。
Alright. Alright, and then services and others. So looks like gross margin improvement there. Both revenue and gross profit from services and others reached an all time high in the first quarter of 2023 within this business division. Growth of used vehicle sales remained strong year over year and had healthy margins. Supercharging will still a relatively small part of the business continue to grow as we gradually open up the network to non-Tesla vehicles. So interesting to see that as we walked through, I'd expect that to decline sequentially because Tesla did have or because Tesla did previously talk about how used car sales were helping to drive profitability for this segment. So with average selling price pressure on new vehicles, I'd expected that to impact the use vehicles that Tesla was using to help drive profit from that. Sorry, I'm just trying to make sure I'm still good here, which it looks like it is. But I would expect that so it's interesting to see that continue to increase. Maybe that means that non-warranty service work is making up a bigger portion of that profitability in that segment. Maybe Tesla will give us some hints on that in the call.
好的。好的，还有服务和其他方面。看起来毛利率有所改善。这个业务部门在2023年第一季度的服务和其他方面的收入和毛利率都达到了历史最高水平。二手车销售增长仍然强劲，且利润良好。虽然超级充电仍然是业务中相对较小的一部分，但随着我们逐步向非特斯拉汽车开放网络，它仍然在继续增长。所以很有趣的是，当我们了解情况时，我预计这种趋势会逐渐下降，因为特斯拉曾经说过二手车销售正在帮助推动这一业务的盈利能力。随着新车平均销售价格的压力，我预计这将影响特斯拉用来推动该业务盈利的二手车。对不起，我只是想确保我还是在正轨上，看起来是这样的。但我预计还有一些可能，这意味着非保修的服务工作正在占据该业务盈利能力的更大部分。也许特斯拉在电话会议中会给我们一些提示。
Alright, and then outlook. So maybe this has something to do with it. We probably should have looked at this a little bit earlier. But okay, we're planning to grow production as quickly as possible in alignment with a 50% compound annual growth rate target. We began getting to an early 2021. In some years we may grow faster and some we may grow slower depending on the number of factors for 2023. We expect to remain ahead of the long-term 50% keg or with around 1.8 million cars for the year. Alright, so that seems fine. No change really in guidance. Obviously, Tesla talked about internal targets being a little bit higher. So maybe some perception of that declining. But the official guidance Tesla gave is reiterated here. So it doesn't seem to be any major change there in the outlook, which I think should be seen as a positive given that there was some expectation forming that maybe that would be reduced.
好的，接下来是展望。也许这与此有关。我们可能应该更早地关注到这一点。但好吧，我们计划尽快增加产量，以与50%的年复合增长率目标相一致。我们开始提前计划到2021年。在某些年份，我们可能会增长更快，而在某些年份，我们可能会增长更慢，这取决于2023年的各种因素。我们预计，我们将保持比长期的50%的目标增长率领先，年销售量约为180万辆。好的，看起来还不错。指导方针没有实质性的变化。显然，特斯拉谈到内部目标略高一些，所以可能会有一些下降的感觉。但特斯拉给出的官方指导方针在这里得到重申。因此，在展望方面似乎没有任何重大的变化，我认为这应该被看作是一个积极的因素，因为曾经有一些预期会有降低。
So we can add cash, sufficient liquidity, kind of what we hear from Tesla Recorder or profit, while we continue to execute on innovations to reduce the cost of manufacturing operations over time. We expect our hardware-related profits to be accompanied with an acceleration of software-related profits. We continue to believe that our operating margin will remain among the healthiest or among the highest in the industry.
所以我们可以加入现金、充足的流动性，这是我们从特斯拉记录器或利润中所听到的，同时我们将继续推动创新，以逐步降低制造业务的成本。我们预计我们与硬件有关的利润将伴随着与软件有关的利润的加速增长。我们仍然相信我们的营业利润率将保持在行业中最健康或最高水平之一。
And then for products, cyber truck remains on track to begin production later this year at Gaget, Texas. In addition, we continue to make progress on our next generation platform.
接下来是关于产品方面的消息，赛博卡车计划在德州盖奇特于今年晚些时候开始生产。此外，我们还在持续推进下一代汽车平台的研发。
Alright, so nothing too bad in that outlook there. That's kind of surprising. Again, reading through this, I'm not seeing anything that sticks out as being overly negative, relative to sort of what consensus expectations were. And with that being the case, it should highlight that even with all these price cuts, Tesla is still operating in a position of strength relative to the rest of the industry.
好的，所以展望并不太糟糕。这有点出乎意料。再读一遍，我没有看到任何明显的负面因素，相比于市场的普遍预期，这并不算过于负面。由此可见，尽管降价幅度如此之大，Tesla仍然相对于其他行业处于强势地位。
Alright, so Tesla operating system, I assume this is page 12, yep, so they talked a bit about more information on this. So talking about how they've done a lot of their enterprise software in-house, which we've known about maybe getting a little bit more information here than we've previously seen. But really just walking through that full vertical integration, end-to-end supply chain of services. So the impact eliminates need for expensive third-party software, ability to scale product and headcount growth without excessive incremental cost, exceptionally a little lead time and improved agility and decision-making and ability to effectively manage information security risks, customer data and experiences. So probably something that's underrated in terms of, you know, Tesla's competitive position, as they say there, you know, provides a lot of advantages for them that other people probably don't have.
好的，那么特斯拉操作系统，我猜这是第12页，没错，在这里他们谈到了更多的信息。他们谈到了如何在公司内部完成了许多企业级软件，我们可能会在这里获得比之前更多的信息。但是他们真正走过了这个完整的垂直整合，从端到端的服务供应链。这种影响消除了昂贵的第三方软件需求，而且能够在没有额外成本的情况下扩大产品和人员规模，并且异常地快速得到启动，提高了敏捷性和决策能力，并有能力有效地管理信息安全风险、客户数据和体验。所以，可能是特斯拉竞争地位中被低估了的事情，正如他们在那里所说，这为他们提供了许多其他人可能没有的优势。
Alright, cyber truck production line. That is exciting to see. I'm just taking these in, I don't have any comments. We're getting close though. As we've talked about, a lot of the hiring now commencing for the cyber truck production line. I like that photo. I'm in the Midwest, so I hope to have an opportunity someday to do some of this winter testing myself, but it looks pretty cool. I'm trying to see if there's any differences we can see. I think that's probably just like a, we still got that upper part there, but interesting, interesting. It looks pretty cool though.
好的，电动皮卡生产线。看到这个很令人兴奋。我只是在观察，没有任何评论。不过我们已经接近目标了。正如我们所讨论的那样，电动皮卡生产线的大量招聘正在进行中。我喜欢那张照片。我身处中西部地区，希望有一天有机会自己进行一些冬季测试，但看起来很酷。我正在努力看看是否有任何区别。我认为那可能只是上部分，但是很有趣。它看起来很酷啊。
Alright, mega pack line. We've already seen some photos of that. 4680 cell production. I mean, hopefully this stuff gets people excited about what's going on, right? I think these things are all still very early stage in the impact that they're going to have in the case of the cyber truck non-existent right now in terms of the hitting the financials other than probably in the cost a little bit. Then mega pack, you know, very, very early on in the ramp. Again, I remind people for the probably 10th time since investor day, go back and look at that chart even though we're seeing this exponential growth in energy storage right here. This is already an amazing growth curve of 360% over year. Even though we're seeing this right now, this is the early stage. So that is only going to continue, which is, you know, extremely, extremely exciting for that business can go. It seems like it's finally, finally happening the energy storage business line becoming significant.
好的，是超级组装线。我们已经看到了一些照片。4680电池的生产。我希望这些东西能让人们对正在发生的事情感到兴奋，对吧？我认为这些东西都还处于非常早期的阶段，在对财务产生影响方面，像银狮车这样的情况现在根本不存在，除了可能会增加一些成本。然后是超级组装线，处于上升阶段的非常早期。再次提醒投资者自投资日以来已经第10次提醒，请回到那张图去看一看。即使我们正在看到这种能源储存的指数级增长，这已经是360%的惊人增长曲线了。即使现在我们看到了这个，这仍然是早期阶段。因此，它只会继续发展，这对于业务的发展非常非常令人兴奋。能源储存业务线似乎终于变得越来越有意义了。
Alright, so there's some of the financial metrics put into charts. Alright, so operating margins. Interesting that Tesla's got the S&P 500 on there. So they'll have to come back and update this as we do get more reporting for earnings over the next couple of weeks. But it shows that this has already been on a bit of a decline. And if that, you know, kind of continues, then hopefully that puts some good context around what Tesla is seeing. Same thing with the auto industry. That'll be interesting to keep an eye on. It looks like it's held up pretty decently so far. I think that's probably a result of the inventory constraints that were being experienced during this period of time, where margins kind of increased. But certainly now that those situations seem to be flipping a little bit, you know, I would expect these to kind of return back to the sort of normal position that they had and, you know, maybe continue on in that way. So this will be one of the most interesting charts to follow over the next 12 months.
好的，这里有一些财务指标的图表。很有趣，特斯拉在其中放置了标普500指数。因此，在未来几周收益的更多的报告中，他们将不得不回来更新这个指标。但这表明这已经有点下降了。如果持续下去的话，那么希望这能为特斯拉所看到的情况提供一些好的背景信息。同样的事情也发生在汽车行业上，这也会是一个有趣的关注点。目前看来，它的表现相当不错。我想这可能是由于这段时间经历了库存限制，利润率有所增加的结果。但是现在这些情况似乎有些转变，我希望这些指标能够回归到他们正常的位置，并继续朝着这个方向发展。因此，这将是接下来12个月最有趣的图表之一。
Alright, then we get into the financials. So, regulatory credit revenue right there. Yep. Alright. So that's good. We can kind of hopefully get to all the financials that we need from that perspective.
好的，接下来我们进入财务方面。因此，在这里是监管信贷收入。是的。好的。这很好。我们希望可以从这个角度获得所有需要的财务数据。
Alright. And then we'll look through how these fit into the sheet. I think we kind of already have a pretty good idea of that, but we'll flip over and fill some stuff out here. Again, reminder, the earnings call is in about an hour. There will be a separate livestream for that on this channel. And the link for that is down in the description.
好的。然后我们将看看这些如何符合表格。我认为我们已经有很好的想法了，但我们将翻过去并在这里填写一些东西。再次提醒，赚钱电话约在一个小时后进行。这个频道将有一个单独的直播。该直播的链接在描述中。
Alright. I'm going to flip over now to Excel and we get into the exciting spreadsheet fill out portion of the episode.
好的，现在我将转到Excel，进入令人兴奋的电子表格填写部分。
Okay.
好的。
Alright, so energy storage. I'm just going to kind of flip back and forth here so it'll take me a minute. But for energy storage deployed, we've got three, eight, nine there and 67 there. So I was 20% too low on my forecast analyst, 41% too low. They were at 2.3 gigawatt hours actually expecting a decline quarter of a quarter in Tesla blowing that out of the water. Again, that 360% year-over-year growth, extremely impressive for the energy storage business.
好的，现在我们来谈论能源储存。我可能需要翻回去然后再翻回来一下，这可能需要一点时间。不过就目前部署的情况来看，我们有三个、八个、九个和六十七个储能系统。所以我的分析预测低了20%，而那些分析预测低了41%。他们预计2.3千兆瓦时的衰退，但特斯拉远远超出了这个数值。这种年增长率达到360%，对于能源储存业务来说是非常印象深刻的成绩。
Automotive sales. Give me a second to find that. It should be at 19, 963. So up 18% year-over-year with of course deliveries of 36%. And my forecast was 1% higher than the actual here. But of course with the $521 million of regulatory credits, you know, we're looking at probably a $500 million difference there though, obviously with an $800 million impact from foreign exchange. If you sort of exclude that, it looks like the average selling price X, foreign exchange, maybe a little bit higher than what I was expecting. So it's in the ballpark and it's good that Tesla has these regulatory credits available.
汽车销售情况。请给我一点时间找一下数据。应该是19, 963辆。与去年同期相比增长了18%，当然交付量也增长了36%。我的预测比实际数据高出了1%。但是，考虑到5.21亿美元的监管信贷，在这方面可能会有500万美元的差异，但仍然会受到800万美元的外汇影响。如果排除这些因素，平均售价可能比我预期稍高，但还是在合理范围内。很好的是，特斯拉拥有这些监管信贷。
It's kind of help offset those the last couple of quarters because that has been a significant negative driver for these last two quarters. Alright, so energy sales. I don't think I've actually seen this number yet. So let's see what this is. Could be an exciting one. And particularly the profit I'm curious about. Okay. So energy storage. 1529. So 148% growth year-over-year with obviously deployments up 360%. So average selling price is declining there. My forecast was 8% to low, analysts forecast 21% to low.
这句话想表达的是，过去几个季度能源销售一直是一个重要的负面驱动因素，而现在这种情况得到一定缓解。接下来，作者提到了能源销售情况，其中能源储存增长了148%，但平均售价有所下降。作者的预测低了8%，分析师的预测则低了21%。
And then for services and others, we'll take a look at energy profit in seconds. But service and others was 1837. So I was 3% to low with my forecast on that, analysts, 7% to low. So as you can see there, revenue as within, you know, about 100 million, same with analysts, kind of split the difference right in the middle there on total sales. But obviously a little bit higher on energy and services and a little bit lower on automotive.
然后对于服务和其他产品，我们将在几秒钟内查看能源利润。但是，服务和其他产品为1837美元。因此，我的预测低了3％，分析师低了7％。所以你可以看到，收入与分析师大致相同，都约为1亿美元，在总销售方面大致分散在中间位置。但显然，能源和服务略高，汽车略低。
Alright, so we'll have to come back to the ASP. I'll calculate that at the end because that'll take me just a second to do. So we'll kind of continue on here. Automotive profit should be our 19963. And the cost came in for automotive at 15755. So we should be at 4208 there. So I was a little bit, 4% too high on my forecast. And again, we don't get that analyst breakdown. Energy profit.
好的，那么我们必须回到ASP（平均售价）。我将在最后进行计算，因为它只需要我一秒钟就可以完成。所以我们将在这里继续。汽车利润应该是我们的19963美元。汽车成本为15755美元。所以我们应该在那里获得4208美元的利润。所以我的预测高了4％。再次强调，我们没有得到分析师的分析报告。能源利润。
We should be at 1529 minus the cost of 1361. So we should be at 168 there. So it looks like the margins on energy actually a little bit lower than what I had forecast, which I'm not going to say is disappointing. But given that the revenue was a little bit higher, the deployments a little bit higher, I would have hoped that to be higher. Not that that's a bad thing at all. It's still a very healthy margin for Tesla at this stage as they continue to ramp.
我们应该在1529减去1361的成本后得到168。所以能源业务的利润率似乎比我预测的要低一点，但我不会说这让人失望。但是考虑到收入和销售量都略高，我本来希望这个利润率更高一些。不过这并不是什么坏事。在特斯拉继续扩大规模的阶段，这仍然是一个非常健康的利润率。
Again, lay through up only probably a third of production capacity right now. But just eagerly I would say I would have wished that that would be a little bit higher. But certainly not a problem. And then for service and others, we've got 1837 revenues and the cost of 1702. So we've got $135 million profit there from services. So 17.3. So let me just double check this total gross profit number. I had miscalculated that last quarter, so I don't want to make that mistake again. But 4511 right on track. So as $80 million too high in my forecast, analysts, you know, $250 million to high.
目前，我们只使用了大约三分之一的生产能力。但是我希望这个比例能再高一些，但这并不是问题。至于服务收入方面，我们获得了1837美元的收入和1702美元的成本。因此，我们从服务中获得了1.35亿美元的利润。我要再次核对总毛利额，因为上个季度我有误算过，我不想再犯同样的错误。但是总体来说，我们的项目计划非常准确，我预测的80亿美元高出了一些，分析师们则高出了2.5亿美元。
Alright. So here we can see the automotive gross margin comparisons. So X credit, again, this is one of the ones that is most interesting, 19%. So it's a little bit lower than the 20% that was asked in that question. This would be inclusive of leasing. So when you exclude leasing, this would actually even be a little bit lower probably in the 18% range, maybe 18.2. Just kind of roughly guessing that. So it does seem to be a little bit lower than what was stated from that question last time. But as X said, there is uncertainty. There is and it was also a little bit unclear on if he was speaking specifically for key one or if he was speaking for the year in its entirety. This will still has opportunities throughout the rest of the year to bring costs down, especially as they noted, you know, foreign exchange impacts, higher cost of materials, higher logistics costs in the first quarter. That's hopefully come down a little bit over time.
好的，现在我们可以看到汽车毛利率的比较。X信贷毛利率为19％，这是最有趣的之一。所以这个数字比上一次提问中要求的20％略低。这涵盖了租赁。所以如果排除租赁，实际上可能会更低，大约在18％左右，粗略地猜测。因此，这似乎比上次提问中所说的要低一些。但是正如X所说，这存在不确定性。不清楚他是在具体讲第一个季度还是整个年度。在今年剩下的时间里，这家公司仍然有机会降低成本，特别是随着他们注意到的外汇影响，材料成本上升，第一季度的物流成本上升，希望随着时间的推移而有所下降。
Now that I'm thinking about that, that though I probably made the same mistake they're thinking sequentially and Tesla is probably talking year over year on that cost bucket. So we'll go back and think about that a little bit more. But energy we talked about a little bit lower than my expectations, a little bit lower than last quarter despite that growth. So kind of interesting to see that. Maybe just lower average selling prices driving that which probably makes sense given the based on how the previous quarters had come in. My estimate for revenue was 8% to low but my estimate for deployments was 20% to low. So it tells you there's obviously an average selling price difference on the lower end. That's affecting those two buckets. But total gross margin then pretty close to what I had forecast with all those factors that we talked about.
现在我在思考，我可能会犯同样的错误，因为他们正在按顺序思考，而特斯拉可能是在谈论年度成本方面。所以我们会再考虑一下。但是能源方面，我们谈到了一点低于我的预期，低于上一季度，尽管有增长。所以这很有趣。可能是较低的平均销售价格驱动了这一点，这很有道理，因为基于以前几个季度的表现。我的营收预测低了8％，但我的部署预测低了20％。所以这告诉您，显然存在较低端的平均销售价格差异，影响了这两个方面。但考虑到所有我们谈论过的因素，总毛利率非常接近我的预测。
Alright, so operating expenses should be pretty straightforward. I don't think we saw any major surprises on these lines. Just get a handle on that. So R&D did actually decline. So some savings there from an R&D perspective but still relatively in that sort of ballpark that we've been seeing, $800 million range, SGNAs, 1076. So pretty close to what I had expected. I don't think we saw any Bitcoin or other charges this quarter as expected. So I guess as to our 2664, yep, operating income. Again in line with my forecast pretty much and a little bit lower than analyst expectations.
好的，所以营业费用应该是相当简单的。我认为我们在这些方面没有看到任何重大的惊喜。只要掌握好这个。所以研发实际上有所下降。因此在研发角度上有一些节省，但仍然处于我们一直看到的范围内，大约8亿美元，SGNA为1076。基本上接近我预期的。我认为这一季度没有出现比特币或其他收费，如预期一样。因此，对于我们的2664，营业收入依然符合我的预测，并且略低于分析师的预期。
So we do sit at that 11.4% operating margin. Remember last quarter there was a 16% operating margin. My comment there's a little bit, can't really see it, but 14.9% was the actual operating margin last quarter. If we exclude the FSD revenue recognition, which as we now see from this quarter is not something that happens consistently.
因此，我们的运营利润率为11.4％。请记得上个季度是16％的运营利润率。我的评论是，上个季度的实际运营利润率是14.9％。如果我们排除FSD收入确认，从本季度我们可以看出这并不是一件持续发生的事情，那么就会有一点小小的区别，但并不明显。
Tesla obviously earns money from FSD but it was just a recognition from backed revenue that obviously had not previously been recognized. So all that lumping into one quarter versus being spread out consistently. So that's why you want to kind of back those things out. And if we look at the same thing for total gross margin, that was 22.7%. Automotive gross margin was 23.1%.
特斯拉显然通过FSD赚钱，但这只是从之前显然没有被认可的支持收入中获得的认可。因此，所有这些收入都被集中在一个季度而不是持续分散。因此，您要将这些东西向后排除。如果我们看总毛利润的情况，那么它是22.7％。汽车毛利率为23.1％。
So those should really be the comparisons you're looking at when looking at the changes over quarter over quarter. So essentially gross margin, automotive gross margin, X credits, declines, you know, 410 basis points quarter over quarter.
因此，当查看季度变化时，您应该真正关注这些比较。基本上，毛利率、汽车毛利率、除信用额度外的减少，季度对季度下降了410个基点。
All right, EBITDA, let's take a look. 42.67. So nothing too surprising on that. Backnet income is 25.13. That will do non-gapier. 29.31. Stock-based comp. It was 418. So keeping that well under control and I assume 0 for CEO compensation as that plan has now been fully earned and recognized. And then EPS, 0.73. Yep. And we'll calculate the P ratio here in a second, 0.85.
好的，EBITDA，让我们来看一下。42.67。在这方面并没有太多令人惊讶的事情。净收入为25.13。依据非通用会计准则，现在达到29.31。股权奖励支出为418，保持在良好控制之下。我认为CEO的薪酬计划已经完全达成和认可，因此预计是0。然后我们来看每股收益（EPS），为0.73。是的，我们在这里进行P/E比率的计算，结果为0.85。
So well done analists. Again, despite some of the muddiness up top at the end of the day shaking out to be in line with consensus, do you think my forecast was a little bit better in general? But that's neither here nor there. Free cash flow is 441.
非常出色的分析师工作。尽管在初期存在一些混乱，但最终与共识一致，你是否认为我的预测整体上更好一些呢？但这不是重点。自由现金流为441。
Which I meant to talk about this yesterday. I think I just kind of skipped over this, but I didn't really understand why the free cash flow expectation was so high. Given that's obviously Tesla grew inventory by 18,000 vehicles, that's going to hear your free cash flow. So in any quarter where you've got dramatic inventory growth, that's going to kind of be the case. So not sure why that was such a big thing. Obviously for an exchange impact, we talked about comments on that like we talked about.
我本来昨天就想谈论这个的。我想我有点跳过这个话题，但我真的不明白为什么自由现金流的预期这么高。因为特斯拉显然增加了18,000辆汽车的库存，这会影响你的自由现金流。因此，在任何一个出现大幅度库存增长的季度，这种情况都会发生。所以我不确定这为什么是个大问题。显然，汇率影响方面，我们谈论了像我们谈论的那样。
All right. So those are the numbers. I'm going to take a look at chat and just see if people have some questions. I mean, we got like 11,000 people watching, which is exciting. And again, just a reminder, if you are just tuning in, the conference call will be in about an hour, a little bit less, and there will be a link in the description to check that out. We'll do the same thing.
好的，这就是数字。我打算看一下聊天室，看看有没有人有问题。我们有大约11,000人在观看，这是令人兴奋的。再次提醒，如果您刚刚加入，会议通话将在大约一小时左右开始，描述中会有一个链接。我们会做同样的事情。
I'll do notes as the as Tesla has the call and we'll do a little bit of reactions to their comments following the call. And then I'll just do another shameless blog. If you are appreciating this, I do appreciate the likes on the street. It's a little bit in balance for the normal ratio. I think we're getting a lot of people that are disliking this. So that's okay with me.
我将在特斯拉电话会议期间记录笔记，并对他们的评论做出一些反应。然后我会写另一篇毫不掩饰的博客。如果您喜欢这篇文章，我会非常感激您在社交网络上的点赞支持。不过我们获得点赞的数量似乎还不太平衡，有不少人似乎并不喜欢这篇文章，但这对我来说没关系。
All right. I'm trying to just kind of look through if there's anything else that's really super important to mention on the financials. It's always a little bit easier and this is why it's nice to go through ahead of time. It's always a little bit easier when the numbers come in relatively in the same ballpark of what we'd expected.
好的。我正在试着看一下是否还有什么其他非常重要的财务事项需要提到。在事前先看一下总是有点更容易，这也是为什么很好的原因。当数字相对于我们预期的在同一范围内时，这样做总是有点更容易。
So you know, there's obviously a couple of swings. I guess let's take a minute to then calculate the average selling price. Take a look at the stock quick before we do that. Down 4.20 percent. How fitting. As I look at that. So it's disappointing. It's a little bit surprising to me. I would have assumed that the whisper number, you know, whisper number, quote unquote, Winston again. Thank you. Back to back super chats from Winston last couple of days.
你应该知道，显然有一些波动。我猜我们花点时间来计算平均售价吧。在这之前，先看一下股票走势。下跌4.20％，真是再合适不过了。当我看到它时，感到很失望，也有点惊讶。我本来以为"低调估计"会更高一些，你知道，所谓的“低调估计”。再次感谢温斯顿，他在过去几天里连续发送了两个超级聊天窗。
That means a lot. I appreciate that. But anyway, in terms of this, I would have expected the whisper number to be even a little bit lower just because we've seen so many things throughout the quarter of Tesla cutting prices, all this concern that's arisen. So I'm a little bit surprised by the reaction here.
这意义重大，我很感激。但是，就这个问题而言，我本来期望的谣传数字应该更低，因为我们在整个季度中看到了特斯拉不断降价的情况，还有所有这些引起的担忧。所以，我对这里的反应有些惊讶。
You know, I was actually a little bit surprised that the stock was as strong as it was today. Obviously it fell off as at the end of the day, but with the price cuts that we just saw last night, I think that's going to play into the reaction on to the earnings report as well. Of course, so you know, we'll see where things go from here, but it's a little bit surprising.
你知道吗，今天股票的表现让我有些惊讶。当然，到了晚上它下跌了，但是考虑到我们昨晚刚刚看到的价格削减，我认为这也会影响到盈利报告的反应。当然，我们还需要看看今后的情况，但这还是有点令人惊讶。
All right, so I want to calculate the ASP. Again, this is going to be impacted by FSD, not FSD, but impacted by a foreign exchange. So bear with me. This might take me a second because usually I do not calculate this in the summary sheet. I just let it flow through for my more detailed model, which is on trail off.
好的，我想要计算ASP(平均售价)。但需要注意的是，这个计算会受到FSD和外汇的影响。请耐心等待，可能需要一些时间，因为通常我不会在摘要表格中计算这个数据，而是让它在我更详细的模型中流出来。这个模型正在进行中。
So let's take a look here. What I'm going to need is, let's go up to the side and do some clean sheet stuff. So I'll need auto revenue, auto cogs, I'll need red credits, and I'll need leasing revenue leasing cogs. I think that should allow us to get everything. X credits and X leasing. So then we have got our standard for comparison. So let's fill those in. We should have a few of these things.
让我们来看看这里。 我需要的是，让我们去到侧面做一些干净表格的东西。 所以，我需要汽车收入，汽车成本，我需要红色信用，我还需要租赁收入和租赁成本。 我想这样可以让我们得到所有的东西，X信用和X租赁。那么我们就有了比较的标准。 所以让我们填写这些。 我们应该有一些这些东西。
Okay, so automotive sales was 18, 8, 78. Automotive cogs. 15, 4, 2, 2. We have credit for the Svinyls 521. And leasing revenue, it should actually already be backed out of this. So we've got 564 there for leasing revenue and leasing costs of goods sold, 333.
好的，汽车销售额为18.8万亿，汽车销售成本为15.42万亿。我们的Svinyls贷款为521万元。租赁收入应该已从中扣除了。因此，我们有564万元的租赁收入和333万元的租赁成本。
So for those that are not familiar, just what I was talking about there a little bit with the leasing margin. Why am I blinking on this calculation? This is so embarrassing. So the leasing margin is 41%. So that's what I was talking about, how that drives up the margin and would affect the cost and the ASP on an average vehicle basis. So that's why we're just taking that out.
对于那些不熟悉的人，我稍微谈到了一下租赁利润率。为什么我在这个计算上会犯迷糊呢？真是令人难为情。租赁利润率是41%，这就是我所说的，它将推高利润率并影响平均车辆的成本和ASP（平均售价）。因此我们决定将它剔除。
Obviously, it's earned for the business and it's fine. It's fine to have that business and it's good margin. But it's also interesting to look at the ASP's X leasing as that gives us a better feel for the sales, obviously. Because there's more units being leased than the revenue being recognized as it's going to drive ASP down, is sort of the point.
显然，这对企业来说是赚钱的，并且很好。拥有这样的业务和良好的利润是好事。但是，观察ASP的X租赁情况也很有趣，因为它能为我们更好地了解销售情况。因为租赁的单位数量比收入更多，这会影响ASP的下降，这是重点。
All right, so auto revenue that excludes leasing. So if we put these together, that should give us our 1942 plus 151. Sorry for this, I know it's probably annoying to do that. All right, so auto revenue that excludes auto cogs that should exclude. So we should just be looking there and then we can just divide that by our deliveries.
好的，所以这是不包括租赁的汽车收入。如果我们把它们放在一起，那就应该是1942加上151。抱歉让你这样做可能会有些烦人。好的，所以这是不包括汽车成本的汽车收入。所以我们应该只关注这个，然后把它除以我们的交付数量。
The fingers crossed some new and all this math correctly. I'll let you guys know if I'm not. That's possible I'm not. Obviously, this needs to be multiplied to make it work. But it looks like it could be $45,000 average selling price. I'm sure I think if that's realistic.
十指交叉希望我能正确地做出这些新的和所有的数学题。如果我不能做到，我会告诉你们的。也许我做不到。显然，这需要乘以某个数才能使其生效。但它看起来似乎可以达到45,000美元的平均售价。我确信这是现实的，但也有可能不是。
Oh no, I lost my spot. Again, I know this is super interesting watching we struggle with math. Usually this is not the way I get to this number, but I'm going to assume these are correct. We'll put them in and see what that does a couple more on there. See how that looks. I definitely want to double check these. And if anyone in the comments wants to double check me as well, that would be awesome. Throw like a one cent super chat on there if you can or something.
哦不，我又迷失了位置。我知道我正在观看我们努力解决数学问题，很有趣。通常这不是我得到这个数字的方式，但我会假设这些是正确的。我们会把它们放进去，看看那会发生什么，再加上几个。看看那个样子。我一定要再次核对这些。如果评论区有人想要帮我核对，那就太棒了。如果可以的话，扔上一个一分钱的超级聊天吧。
Take out least deliveries. Yes, awesome. Thank you, JMO. Genius. All right, so ignore those. So we've got I used all the deliveries there for the calculation. Again, my sheet normally takes those out. So let's take the leasing deliveries out, great call. I did four warn that I might struggle with this during the live stream. Obviously, I'm capable of figuring it out, but just takes a second.
拿掉尽可能少的交付次数。是的，太棒了。谢谢你，JMO。天才。好的，忽略那些。所以我们在计算中使用了所有的交付次数。再次说明一下，我的表格通常会把这些东西拿掉。所以让我们把租赁方的交付次数拿掉，非常明智。我曾经提前警告过在直播过程中我可能会遇到麻烦。显然，我有能力去解决，但只需要花费一点时间。
So let's see, leasing deliveries, 22, 357. So we'll put that down there, we'll go back here. And we'll subtract that. There we go. That seems more correct. JMO coming through. All right.
让我们来看一下，租赁交付量为22,357台。我们将把它记录在那里，然后回到这里进行减法运算。现在看起来更正确了。JMO过来确认。好的。
That looks better. It also makes more sense with my estimates. So I was a little bit high on my ASP estimate, my cost estimate actually right on. So make sense. The foreign exchange impact. If you've got 800 million, I kind of just want to see what the ASP would be excluding that. So we should just be able to take that and add 800. As long as I'm interpreting Tesla correctly. So I could drive it up to 49,000. So it's like a couple thousand per vehicle, potentially in terms of that foreign exchange impact.
看起来更好了。我的估计也更合理。所以我在ASP估计上高了一点，但成本估计是准确的。所以很有道理。外汇影响。如果你有8亿，我只想知道除外汇影响之外的ASP是多少。只要我对特斯拉的解释正确，我们就可以把这个数加上800，然后将它推高到49,000美元。因此在外汇影响的因素下，每辆车可能会增加几千美元的成本。
I hope Tesla talks a little bit more about that. I'm going to try to do a little bit more research on this. I tried to do more on it last quarter and it just fell off the plate, but obviously it's a significant driver here. So something I need to spend a little bit more time figuring out.
我希望特斯拉能多谈谈这个话题。我会尽力做更多的研究。上个季度我试图更多地了解它，但最终没来得及处理，但显然这是一个重要的驱动因素。因此，我需要花更多时间去了解。
So yeah, that's nice to see the cost start to come down a little bit. Still up 5% year-over-year obviously, but down, you know, whatever percent that is, but down a thousand dollars quarter over quarter. And the ASP is still staying about the $47,000 level just by a hair, but still above that level even with the foreign exchange impact. So good to see that.
嗯，看到成本开始下降有点不错。明显地，与去年同期相比上涨了5%，但季度下降了几个百分点，下降了一千美元。平均售价ASP仍保持在约47,000美元的水平略高于外汇影响的水平，即使是这样也是好的。
Again, the margin ex-leasing probably around that 18% level. So potentially a little bit lower than what Tesla had originally expected when they communicated the guidance on the Q4 call, but with the caveat there that they may have just been guiding for the year. So we don't know that for sure.
再次说明，去除租赁的利润率可能在18%左右。因此，在Q4通话指引中，特斯拉最初的预期可能稍微低一些，但有一点需要说明的是，他们可能只是在针对这一年进行指导。因此，我们不能确定这一点。
Okay. Now, I think we can get into the chat and try to go back and see if people have any questions. Sorry, if this chat seems like kind of out of control.
好的。现在，我认为我们可以进入聊天界面，尝试回顾看看人们是否有任何问题。如果这个聊天似乎有些失控，我很抱歉。
So that's disappointing. I'm going to go ahead and ban that guy that keeps saying Ponzi. Seems people are frustrated about that.
这很令人失望。我打算禁止那个一直说庞氏骗局的人。看起来人们对此感到沮丧。
Okay. Yeah, for whatever reason, it seems to be a more more Tesla Q types than usual.
好的。是的，出现了比平常更多的特斯拉Q类型问题。
All right. Just going back, seeing some of these super chats, Forty-Watt, appreciate that. Unfortunately, the UI that I've got for this is not the smoothest. So it's somewhat difficult for me to see those come through. John, appreciate that all the support means a lot. Mike, thank you. Evo, thank you. Julian, thank you. Potentially see you in Austin. I will probably go down regardless of invite or not to the fore the shareholder meeting. We'll see on that.
好的，我再回顾一下，看到了一些超级聊天，感谢 Forty-Watt，但很遗憾我得到的用户界面不太流畅，所以我有点难以注意到这些。 John，感谢你的支持，这对我来说意义重大。 Mike，谢谢你。 Evo，谢谢你。 Julian，谢谢你。有可能会在奥斯汀见到你们，我可能会去股东大会，不管有没有邀请，我们拭目以待。
Again, if you're just kind of hanging out or you tune in late, obviously can go back through the recap here. But the conference call will start in about 45 minutes and there will be a link for that down in the description. And I would encourage people to hop over there.
如果你现在只是随便逛逛或是时间比较晚，当然可以通过回顾部分回顾一下。但是，电话会议将于大约45分钟后开始，并且在描述中会有一个链接。我鼓励大家过去参加。
Let's recap up here probably pretty shortly. So I'm not seeing too many questions. Winston, again, thank you. Appreciate that.
让我们很快地回顾一下这里的情况。我看不到太多问题。Winston，再次感谢你。感激不尽。
All right. Well, I'm not actually seeing too many questions. I'm not seeing any major errors now that we do have the regulatory credits broken out.
好的，嗯，我实际上没有看到太多问题。现在我们已经把监管证书分开列出，也没有看到任何重大错误。
I guess sort of though one of the unanswered questions, it would be the item that we talked about going into the stream today. We don't necessarily know what the impact from the inflation reduction act would be. Sorry, I just got distracted by the chat there. We don't actually know what the impact of the inflation reduction act battery production credits is.
我猜有一个未解决的问题，就是我们今天讨论要进入这条流的项目。我们不一定知道通货膨胀减少法案对此的影响。对不起，我刚才被聊天分散了注意力。实际上，我们也不知道通货膨胀减少法案对蓄电池生产积分的影响是什么。
That was not broken out that I saw in the letter. So that may be just something that is contributing potentially to the ASP. Tesla is kind of throwing that as automotive revenue. Not sure that that's where they would put it, but I guess I'm not sure exactly where else it would fall. If it's not in there, maybe they're just putting in a regulatory credits. And maybe that's one of the reasons that this came in a little bit higher. Maybe you see like the 300 million from sort of the normal regulatory credits that we get from Tesla selling credits to other automakers. And then maybe there's another couple hundred million dollars there from the battery production credits. That'd be a clean way to do it. So hopefully that's kind of how it's structured if that is the case. But maybe Tesla will talk a little bit more about that on the call.
在信中我没有看到具体细节，因此这可能只是可能促使汽车平均销售价格上涨的某个因素。特斯拉将这部分车辆销售收入归类为汽车业务，不确定它们是否应该这样做，但我也不确定它们归类到哪里更合适。如果这个因素不在收入中，那么可能是因为他们归类为了规定性信贷。这可能是他们上涨的原因之一，可能是规定性信贷的基本规定，得到了3亿美元，从特斯拉向其他汽车制造商出售信贷，再加上可能有另外数百万美元从电池生产中获得的信贷。如果是这样，这将是一个简洁明了的做法。希望特斯拉在电话会议上能够进一步讲解。
So I'll wrap this up pretty soon. Geekaholic, thank you. David Osborne, appreciate that. Jordan, thank you. Change agent. Change agent. Got your gigabir on Inverlin on ice. Honestly, I gotta get over to Europe. It's been too long.
我很快就要结束了。Geekaholic，谢谢你。David Osborne，感谢你。Jordan，谢谢你。变革推动者。变革推动者。在Inverlin冰上抓住了你的gigabir。老实说，我得去欧洲一趟。太久没去了。
意思是说，讲话者快要结束演讲，感谢在座听众和支持者，提到了几位特别感谢的人，表示要去欧洲一趟。
Okay, guys. I think we're going to wrap it up here. But again, tune in to the earnings call. That'll be in about 40 minutes. And the link for that will be down in the description. Bernard, thank you. So we'll go through that. And then we'll see what Tesla's got to say. And if that gives us any new context here, but just I guess to give sort of an overall thought here, I'm not disappointed with this earnings.
大家好。我认为我们要在这里结束了。但是请关注收益电话。大约40分钟后就会播出。连接在说明中。Bernard，谢谢你。所以我们会仔细研究一下。然后我们将看看特斯拉有什么要说的。如果这给我们带来了任何新的上下文，但我想给大家一个总体的想法，我并不对这份收益感到失望。
I think it's actually pretty decent. Obviously, the gross margin was a little bit below my expectation. So if there's anything in there that's maybe a little bit more disappointing, it would be that. But it seems like that's really driven from foreign exchange impact. So if Tesla gets a foreign exchange tailwind, or if they had happened to this quarter, you know, that could have made the quarter look really strong relative to expectations.
我认为实际上它还不错。显然，毛利率低于我的预期。如果里面有什么更令人失望的事情，可能会是这个。但似乎这主要是受到外汇影响的驱动。所以，如果特斯拉获得外汇顺风或者这个季度碰巧有顺风，那么相对于预期，这个季度可能会显得非常强劲。
So I don't want to, you know, over focus on just one quarter gross margin. I think what's clear is that Tesla still has plenty of room to maneuver here with these 19% gross margins overall.
所以我不想过于关注单季度的毛利率。我认为很明显的是，特斯拉总体上的19%毛利率仍有很大的空间可以操纵。
It's really exciting that the energy business is growing so fast. Hopefully, that'll continue throughout the rest of this year. And we can see Tesla put up, you know, 15, 20 gigawatt hours, maybe even more than that for this year in terms of energy storage deployed. And that's going to start contributing even more significantly to the operating profits.
能源行业的快速增长真是令人兴奋。希望在今年余下的时间里，这种增长会持续下去。而且，我们可以看到特斯拉今年的能源储存部署量达到 15 到 20 千兆瓦时，甚至更多。这将开始对运营利润做出更为重要的贡献。
As obviously we've talked about Tesla is able to leverage their entire business to keep fixed costs for the energy business down, which means that the energy gross margin can kind of just flow through to to operating margin, which even though 11% gross margin for, you know, if this were a standalone business would would not be great.
显然，我们已经谈论过特斯拉能够利用他们的整个业务来降低能源业务的固定成本，这意味着能源毛利可以直接转化为营业利润率。虽然如果这是一个独立的业务，11％的毛利率并不太好，但它仍然可以通过特斯拉整体业务的效益而得以提高。
That's not a super strong business unless your massive scale with Tesla scale provided by the auto business that actually can can be pretty healthy. And it's, you know, we're still very early in that ramp. So it's kind of exciting to see that and, you know, that $168 million that that generates that goes in operating profit just the same as it would if it came from automotive.
除非你与特斯拉规模相似的汽车业务大规模发展，否则这不是一个非常强大的业务。而且，我们现在还处在非常早期的阶段，这种发展非常令人振奋。这产生的1.68亿美元，其营业利润与汽车业务产生的一样。
So hopefully that grows and becomes an even more significant factor as, you know, over the last four quarters now, it's half a billion dollars in profit. And again, just at very early stage in the ramp. So exciting to see that for Tesla energy.
希望这一点会不断增长，并成为更重要的因素。你知道，在过去的四个季度里，我们已经实现了5亿美元的利润，而且我们现在的发展处于非常早期的阶段。对于特斯拉能源而言，这是一个让人兴奋的成果。
I know I did mention that we calculate the PE and then I forgot about that. So I'll just see that quick. It looks like we're about around $3.40 over the last four quarters now. So that would be a decline from around 363 previously. So obviously earnings per share down year over year as expected.
我记得之前提到过我们要计算市盈率，但后来忘记了，现在我会快速检查一下。看起来我们在过去的四个季度中大约为$3.40左右，这相比之前的$363有所下降。因此，每股收益年度同比下降是符合预期的。
But $3.40 were at 173, I think it's last I saw after hours. So the price earnings ratio right now is, you know, 51X versus that's kind of where we started. I think the day or maybe earlier this week. So it doesn't change the PE too much.
但是3.40美元是在173的时候，我觉得那是我在盘后看到的最后价格。所以现在的市盈率是51倍，与我们开始的地方差不多。我想是在今天或者本周早些时候。所以这并没有太大改变市盈率。
And hopefully, you know, during this period of time there's going to be a little bit more emphasis on price to sales ratios because obviously revenue here is still growing healthy. 25% year over year. So you know, 86 billion in 12 month revenue versus 81 prior to this report.
希望在这段时间里，大家能够更加关注价格销售比率，因为这家公司的收入仍然保持健康增长，同比增长25％。因此，这个公司过去12个月的收入达到了860亿美元，比之前的81亿美元要高。
So the price to sales ratio, obviously declining even though the PE ratio is increasing as earnings drop here for a little bit. All right.
因此，尽管市盈率正在增加，但由于收益下降，价格销售比率显然正在下降。好的。
So that'll wrap it up. Make sure to tune in a little bit later on for the earnings call. That will be down in the description. We'll hop over there and it hopefully should take you there right after we wrap up here. So we'll see you in a little bit. Thank you.
好了，就这样结束了。请确保稍后关注收益电话。可以在描述中找到链接。我们会转到那里，希望我们的描述能直接把您带到那里。稍后再见，谢谢！