Hey everybody Rob Marrow here and today we are going to be talking about release notes for FSD beta version 11.4, a new version already making its way out to employees. We've also got updates on Gigamexico, the EV tax credit and more. Quickly looking at the stock Tesla kicking off the week up 1.1% to close at $187.4, while the NASDAQ was up 3.10% on the day.
Looking at the calendar for the week ahead, of course we'll have some macroeconomic reports as we can see here, but really this is earnings week. A number of major companies reporting earnings this week and next week and those reports can influence how Tesla trades. Certainly, and then of course most importantly, Tesla's earnings on Wednesday after market closed, so I'll be doing my usual live streaming that day, we'll do a preview episode tomorrow. So a lot to look forward to and probably around the time this is being published, there will also be that Elon Musk Fox News interview tonight as well.
Alright, getting into Tesla news, I want to start off with an update on FSD beta, according to Winters Eschalan on Twitter, who has previously been one of the first to post release notes for new FSD beta versions. There is a new update rolling out to employees right now. This is FSD beta version 11.4. While we have over the last few weeks been seeing pretty quick successive releases of FSD beta updates, many of these have had the same release notes from prior versions, so more indicative of minor updates, but this time around we've got a whole new set of release notes.
Before we even get into those though, right off the bat, the version number is interesting here because we can see that it is updated to 2023 from the previous FSD version 11 beta's that have been on the 2022 software stack. So this update should pull FSD beta up to feature parity for the non FSD related software features.
As for the FSD beta updates, version 11.4 seems to be predominantly focused on lane management. Over half of the release note bullets have to do with lanes in one way or another. And I think for me, one that sticks out the most is Tesla saying that they have improved the lane guidance module to feed in long range routing quote unquote hints to the network for which lanes ego needs to be in to reach its destination. Tesla says they've also significantly improved the per lane routing type auto-labler, and these changes combined resolve 64% of all interventions caused by bad routing type.
So on the first piece of that, the routing hints that Tesla mentions, I think that's basically what we had talked about in a prior episode when Greeny only had discovered that Tesla was drawing on some internally collected mapping data that they layer on to information that they're also using from Google Maps to help with things like alternative routing and presumably FSD. So maybe some of the things that Greeny was seeing weren't quite active yet.
Maybe that's being turned on now or maybe Tesla just continuing to build on some of the things that Greeny was seeing and in combination with more robust data from the auto-labler, this version should hopefully see a pretty dramatic reduction in lane selection issues.
Now obviously one of the questions that comes up with an update like this is does this send Tesla down a path of becoming too reliance on mapping type of data? We talked more about that when we got this initial update from Greeny, so I don't want to go all the way down that path again, but I think the short version of my thoughts on that would be that if Tesla's got the data and a scalable way to collect and utilize that data might as well be taking advantage of it. And I don't think that's going to take away from Tesla working towards a solution that isn't fully reliance on mapping data like this. This can be something that just improves the system when that information is available, hopefully making it safer or even just a little bit smoother.
The next update on lanes that also stuck out to me, Tesla says they have improved long-range path blockage detection and control on city streets. Ego will now be able to perform lane changes due to upcoming path blockages earlier. This one stuck out to me a bit because it reminded me of some of the changes that we heard about in the first iterations of version 11, where Tesla talked about seeing further ahead for high curvature situations. I think there were some other things as well. So somewhat similar to what we're hearing about with this point where Tesla is seeing and recognizing things earlier and reacting accordingly.
Next, Tesla says they have improved geometric consistency between lane, line, road edge and restricted space detections by retraining our networks on the same data set with the latest version of their lane guidance module and by using common feature space to predict line, road edge and restricted space.
We've clearly seen significant improvement on that and I think this is one more step along that way, just a better understanding of exactly where things are.
我们显然已经看到了显著的改进,我认为这是沿着这条路的又一步,只是更好地理解事情的具体情况。
All right, going through the rest of the lane points a little bit more quickly, Tesla says they've improved turn performance and dense unstructured city environments, doing things like turning in front of parked cars, avoiding turning into bus lanes, and they say they've improved their understanding for when to use bus lanes and when you avoid them.
They've also improved the speed control during lane changes through better consideration of upcoming navigation deadlines required back-to-back lane changes and presence of vehicle behind ego.
Lastly, on lanes, although this one is a little bit more of a general item, Tesla says they've improved recall and precision for vehicle cut-ins by increasing their auto-label data set by 80,000 clips and it sounds like as those clips get added, that can improve the accuracy of the auto-labeling system itself.
So it sounds like a win-win on that, both a better output and a better model and I think probably a lot of what Tesla is doing shares that characteristic.
All right, a couple of main ones left, there were updates on VRUs or Vulnerable Road users, Tesla's improved the decision to assert or yield for pedestrians at more crosswalks by evaluating multiple possible futures in the joint space of Ego's actions and the pedestrians response.
So we've seen Tesla give examples of things like this before examining multiple different future possibilities, mostly those examples have been from unprotected left turns, I think, but sounds like a similar situation here for pedestrians, and then Tesla's also improved the Ego's behavior near VRUs, using their kinematic data to estimate how likely it is that they would cross the vehicle's path.
Finally, some other general improvements, Tesla says they have added a new vision speed network to infer the typical driving speed on a given road. They say that'll help with things like parking lots or residential roads.
Also, speed-related Tesla says they are mitigating hydroplaning risk by making maximum allowable speeds in autopilot proportional to the severity of the detect road conditions, possibly using things like wetness of the road, tire spray from other vehicles, rain intensity, tire wear estimation, or even other risk factors to indicate that the vehicle is near the handling limit in those conditions, to warn the driver and reduce speed, and presumably limit the speed for autopilot like already happens today.
And then, final bullet point, Tesla says they have improved developer productivity with better code diagnostics and C++20 features by upgrading the compiler, and they also say that this reduced the input to output or photon to vehicle response latency by 2%.
So overall, it does seem like version 11.4 is a decent sized update, and it's nice to see this relatively quickly.
总的来说,11.4版本似乎是一个相当不错的更新,而且很快就推出了,这很好看。
Hopefully, an early sign that the pace of improvement is increasing, especially now that version 11 is out there, and Tesla can fully focus and optimize on that full stack.
希望看到改进速度的早期迹象增加,特别是现在版本11发布了,特斯拉可以全力关注并优化整个技术堆栈。
Alright, next up, we've got some possible updates on Gigamexco.
好的,接下来,我们有一些可能的关于Gigamexco更新的消息。
This is from an interview of the Governor of Newy Baleone, of course, was at investor day and has been relatively public through this process.
这是新巴勒恩州长的采访内容,当然,他早在投资者日就公开了这个过程。
He's now shared some of his current thoughts on the timeline for Gigamexco saying that quote, in the beginning, there was talk that they wanted to break the 9 month Shanghai record, but with the meetings we have been having, the model they want to bring out, which is the economic model that is going to be sold massively, is going to require a whole new production line.
Right now, that production line is in the workshop, rather working on workshops, to have a rendering and start the construction, so now we estimate that it could take between 12, 14, 15 months due to the large space that it will occupy that production line.
So the timeline for Gigamexco has always been a little bit unclear from the information that we have been able to piece together so far, and unfortunately, I'm not sure that this really adds any clarity to that.
They could be talking about those timelines with slightly different bookends.
他们可能在谈论那些带有略微不同起始和结束时间的时间线。
I think we've always kind of heard maybe three months or so for groundbreaking, and the 9 month timeline that we previously heard that was, I think, always about groundbreaking to production because that's what Gigashang had was able to do.
So that puts the total timeline to 12 months already, and it kind of sounds like based on his other context that he's providing here, that he is talking about more of that total timeline. So just this alone doesn't give me confidence that Tesla has somehow stepped their plans back at all. They've always kind of known that this was going to be the deal with Gigamexco. So maybe they're thinking it takes a little bit longer now, but they're obviously going to try to do this as quickly as possible, and this is really in the same ballpark, so it doesn't really change my expectations at all.
In the interview, he did add a couple of other interesting comments. He said, quote, we are ready. We have to wait for the final render to then adapt, polish, and start the projects that Nuevo Leon has been ready to start since November, and as soon as Tesla tells us to go ahead, we will start. End quote. So it sounds great that they're ready to roll, but of course that would be contingent on some of the things that Tesla needs to provide, and that could cause things to change a little bit. Finally, he also commented on what the size of Gigamexco will be, saying quote, obviously we are still waiting for the official information on what will be the largest plant in the world, but clarifying that is not only from Tesla, it is from all the world companies. This is going to be the largest Gigafactory in dimension worldwide, even bigger by far than the one in Texas, which is the biggest today. End quote. So you may remember there's been a little bit of uncertainty on that based on the rendering that we had seen so far, so good to hear a little bit more about those plants.
All right, next up we finally seem to have some finality on the structure of the EV tax credit with the changes from a couple of weeks ago going into effect tomorrow, April 18th. The fuel economy.gov website has been updated to show how the vehicle credits are going to be structured beginning tomorrow, and while I suppose it could still change, maybe some manufacturers haven't gotten their information in yet, it does look to be pretty final now. And for Tesla, as we expected, Tesla's retaining the full credit on all versions of the Model 3 and the Model Y except for the rear wheel drive standard range Model 3, which Tesla had previously announced would be reduced to half, so $3,750. So it's good to have that confirmation, and we do also see other interesting updates in here. Rivian, Volkswagen, Nissan, they've had the credit since January. All the current offerings for those manufacturers for the time being reduced to zero. For GM, it looks like they'll retain the full credit on their eligible lineup, and then for Ford, the Ford Mustang Mach-E, notably, will decline to that half credit as well.
Next, we've got a pretty interesting update on the Model 3 internationally. Tesla is bringing back the rear wheel drive long-range Model 3. This is sort of the longest range configuration Model 3 that we have seen historically. Tesla hasn't offered this for a while, but according to a LinkedIn post from a Tesla account manager, Tesla is bringing back this configuration to quote, accelerate the electrification of Europe's B2B business to business fleet. End quote. Sounds like in the UK, this will start at about 47,000 pounds, and as implied there, this seems to you for the time being only be a business to business offering. We do actually see a sign of this in the Netherlands as well, with a Tesla partner called Mr. Green now marketing this offer, despite this configuration not being available on Tesla's website. So interesting, not something that we've really seen Tesla focus on too much in the past. Maybe this is just a prelude to this returning for individuals sometime soon. We're obviously still waiting to see what Tesla does in the US for that long-range non-performance spot. For these vehicles though, it would seem very likely that these are being produced in Shanghai.
Next up, we've got a couple of different things on pricing. No price changes this time around, but seemingly in reaction to the reaction of Tesla's price changes, one of Tesla's China's VPs has posted a recap of Tesla's pricing on their vehicles in China compared to the pricing of those vehicles in other countries.
So CNEV posts recap this nicely. They say that this was presented without comments, but perhaps meant to try to deter expectations of possible further price cuts going forward. So we won't go through these item by item, but feel free to take a look at these different graphs put together again by CNEV posts that show the differences, which I think is pretty nice to have recapped in this way. Obviously, prices in China can afford to be a little bit lower with domestic production.
Separately on pricing, we've got some more commentary from other automakers on Tesla's price cuts recently. This time from the CEO of the Renault brand, who has said that quote, it's clear that Tesla cutting prices is a challenge.
Starting with the cost side of things, it's a warning we are looking at, end quote, and adding that Renault will analyze country by country, market by market, the level of competitiveness that is needed to be able to stay in the game. Which if you read that verbatim, it kind of sounds like they're considering maybe even leaving some markets. I think he's more referring to price changes market by market, but interesting either way and shows the sort of trickle down effect that Tesla's pricing can have industry wide, which we have talked about quite a bit. Elon commented on this in a roundabout way on Twitter over the weekend, saying that Tesla isn't starting a price war, which could have connotations of selling below cost or something like that just to gain market share. Elon saying rather we're just lowering prices to enable affordability at scale.
All right, last few updates, kind of a fun one from Tesla charging on Twitter over the weekend, noting that they have added 36 stalls in Indigo, California as Coachella has been going on. And then they also said that they've got a little extra powered by Megapack. So I'm not sure if these are temporary chargers that Tesla is making available in this spot for this period of time, but that kind of seems to be what they're implying, which would be a pretty cool demonstration of what Tesla could do if that is the case.
Next, we've got an interesting update from Chris Jong on Twitter saying that Huawei has just debuted one of their new vehicles and they claim to be using the industry largest 9000 ton die-casting machine for this vehicle. So we had talked about a 9000 ton press from E-DRA going from Italy over to Asia, but we didn't know where that was going. It seemed like it would be Tesla based on it matching a Tesla color scheme. And I think that's maybe still a possibility, but perhaps that press was destined for Huawei.
As for other upcoming vehicles, folks wagon today releasing a lot more information on the ID7. They say that this is going to have a range of up to 700 kilometers, 435 miles, on the WLTP to cycle. Pricing has not yet been announced, but folks wagon says this will be the top of the ID line and that the launch is scheduled for Autumn 2023 for Europe and China in North America in 2024.
All right, last item for today, hopefully by now everyone very well aware of this, but of course this morning the first fully integrated test flight for Starship was scheduled ended up being converted into a wet dress rehearsal as at about 10-15 SpaceX had an issue with the pressure at Valve, so had to hold off on the launch but still a lot of good learnings from today. And they are now targeting no earlier than Thursday, of course April 20th for the next launch attempt.
So the exciting week carries on, but that will wrap it up for today. As always, thank you for listening, make sure you're subscribed and signed up for notifications. Also find me on Twitter at Tesla Podcast and we'll see you tomorrow for the Tuesday, your probably the end episode on Tesla Daily. Thank you.
所以这个激动人心的一周还在继续,但今天的节目就到此为止了。如常,谢谢您的收听,确保您已经订阅并开启通知。还可以在 Twitter 上找到我,账号为 Tesla Podcast,明天我们会再见,周二的可能是 Tesla Daily 的最后一集。谢谢。