Upstart 2022 Q3 Earnings Call
发布时间 2023-04-16 16:38:19 来源
2022 earnings call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Jason Schmidt, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.
2022年财报电话会议。本次会议正在录音。现在我想将会议交给投资者关系副总裁Jason Schmidt先生。请开始讲话，先生。
意思是：本次电话会议旨在讨论公司2022年的财报情况，并进行录音。现在，我们要请投资者关系副总裁Jason Schmidt先生主持本次会议。
Good afternoon and thank you for joining us on today's conference call to discuss upstarts third quarter 2022 financial results. With us on today's call are Dave Gerard, upstarts Chief Executive Officer and Sanjay Dota, our Chief Financial Officer.
下午好，感谢大家参加今天的电话会议，讨论Upstarts2022年第三季度的财务结果。今天和我们一起参加的是Upstarts首席执行官Dave Gerard和首席财务官Sanjay Dota。
Before we begin, I want to remind you that shortly after the market closed today, upstart issued a press release announcing its third quarter 2022 financial results and published an investor relations presentation. Both are available on our investor relations website, IR dot upstart dot com.
在我们开始之前，我想提醒你，今天市场收盘后，Upstart发布了一份新闻稿，宣布了其2022年第三季度财务业绩，并发布了投资者关系展示文稿。这两个文件都可以在我们的投资者关系网站IR.upstart.com上获取。
During the call, we will make four looking statements such as guidance for the fourth quarter of 2022 related to our business and our plans to extend our platform in the future. These statements are based on our current expectations and information available as of today and are subject to a variety of risks uncertainties and assumptions. Actual results made different materially as a result of various risk factors that have been described in our filings with the SEC.
在电话中，我们将会发布四个观察性声明，涉及到我们业务的2022年第四季度指导和未来扩展平台的计划。这些声明是基于我们当前的期望和可用信息，但也受到各种风险、不确定性和假设的影响。实际结果可能会因不同的风险因素而发生重大差异，这些因素已在我们提交给SEC的文件中进行了描述。
As a result, we caution you against placing undue reliance on these four looking statements. We assume no obligation to update any four looking statements as a result of new information or future events except as required that law.
因此，我们提醒您不要过分依赖这些前瞻性声明。除非符合法律要求，否则我们不承担更新任何前瞻性声明的义务，即使出现新信息或未来事件。
In addition, during today's call, unless otherwise stated references to our results are provided as non gap financial measures and our reconciled to our gap results, which can be found in the earnings release and supplemental tables to ensure that we address as many analyst questions as possible during the call.
另外，在今天的电话会议期间，除非另有说明，我们提供的是非公认会计原则（non-gap）的财务指标数据，并已与我们的公认会计原则（gap）结果进行了调整。这些数据可以在财报发布和补充表格中找到，以确保在电话会议期间回答尽可能多的分析师问题。
We request that you please let me yourself to one initial question and one follow up.
我们请求您允许我自己提出一个初步问题和一个跟进问题。表达的是请求对方允许自己参与提问并且仅有一次初步问题和一次跟进提问的意思。
Later this quarter, absurd will be participating in cities 2022 FinTech conference on November 15th and with bushes disruptive finance conference December 2nd. Now we'd like to turn it over to Dave Gerard CEO of UPSERG.
在本季度末，absurd将参加2022年11月15日举办的城市金融科技会议和12月2日的Bushe's混乱金融会议。现在我们想把话题交给UPSerg的首席执行官Dave Gerard。
Good afternoon everyone. Thank you for joining us on our earnings call covering our third quarter 2022 results. I'm Dave Gerard, co founder and CEO of UPSERG.
大家下午好。感谢您加入我们的盈利电话会议，介绍我们2022年第三季度的成果。我是UPSERG的联合创始人兼CEO戴夫·杰拉德。
Our results in Q3 were certainly not what we wanted them to be, but I also believe they reflect the upstart team making the right decisions in a very challenging economic environment for the long term success of the company.
我们第3季度的业绩肯定不如我们所希望的，但我也相信这反映了我们这个新兴团队在一个非常具有挑战性的经济环境中做出了正确的决策，以确保公司的长期成功。
Our revenue is down primarily because loan volume on our platform is down and secondarily because credit markets are extremely cautious and even dislocated. Higher interest rates and significantly elevated risk in the economy means we're approving about 40% fewer applicants than we would have a year ago. And those approved today are seeing offers about 800 basis points higher than they would have a year ago. This accounts for the vast majority of the reduction in volume.
我们的收入主要下降是因为我们平台上的贷款数量下降了，其次是因为信贷市场非常谨慎甚至破裂。经济中的利率较高和风险显著上升意味着我们批准的申请人比一年前少了约40％。而今天获批准的人所见到的报价，比一年前高了约800个基点。这占了量减少的绝大部分原因。
Many of our lending partners have reduced their originations, raised their rates or both. This is generally out of an abundance of caution with respect to the economy that their upstart powered loan portfolios have met or exceeded expectations since the program began in 2018.
我们的许多贷款合作伙伴已经减少了它们的起息，提高了它们的利率或两者兼备。这通常是因为他们对经济的担忧过多，他们的新兴贷款组合自程序于2018年开始以来，已经达到或超过了预期。
But I want to be clear, contraction in lending volume in a time of rising rates and elevated consumer risk is a feature of our platform, not a bug. In fact, it's required in order to generate the returns, lenders and investors expect. Whether due to an increase in expected loss rates, caution on the part of lenders or higher yield demanded by credit investors, higher interest rates in reduced volumes means that as unhappy as we are with the numbers, the system is working as intended.
但是我想要明确的是，在利率上升和消费者风险增加的情况下，借贷量的收缩是我们平台的一个特点，而不是一个故障。实际上，为了产生投资者期望的收益，这是必须的。无论是由于预期损失率的增加，贷方的谨慎或信贷投资者要求更高的收益率，较高的利率和减少的借贷量意味着我们对这些数字不满意，但这个系统正在按照既定的计划运转。
We're eyes wide open to the challenges of the current macro economy and determined to make the decisions that will optimize for the long term success of upstart.
我们敏锐地意识到当前宏观经济所面临的挑战，并下定决心做出优化决策，以确保upstart在长期成功方面的最大化。
At the simplest level, we're improving our operational efficiency in the near term so that we can continue to maximize investment in our AI platform for the long term. First and foremost, we're continually calibrating our risk models to the market. Performance of credit is and always will be our highest priority.
在最简单的层面上，我们正在改善我们的操作效率，以便在长期内继续最大限度地投资于我们的人工智能平台。首先，我们不断校准我们的风险模型以适应市场。信贷绩效始终是我们的最高优先事项。
While we don't make predictions about the future, we've chosen to take a conservative position with respect to the direction of the economy in the coming quarters. In other words, we assume the worst is in front of us. We'll be pleasantly surprised if this turns out not to be the case.
虽然我们不会对未来做出预测，但我们选择保守地看待未来几个季度的经济走势。换句话说，我们认为最糟糕的情况在我们前方。如果情况不如此，我们会感到惊喜。
Second, we're strengthening our unit economics both by increasing our revenue per loan as well as reducing marketing spend in our most expensive acquisition channels. And third, we're carefully managing our operational and fiscal plans to ensure that we're on a strong corporate footing for as long as this cycle lasts.
其次，我们正在加强我们的单元经济，既可以通过增加贷款的收入，也可以通过减少我们最昂贵的用户获取渠道的市场营销支出。第三，我们正在谨慎地管理我们的运营和财务计划，以确保我们在这个周期持续的时间内处于强劲的企业基础上。
In recognition of the reduction of loan volume in our platform, we unfortunately eliminated approximately 140 hourly positions within our loan operations team, representing about 7% of our workforce. This was disappointing for sure, but necessary to keep our operational capacity in line with the current environment. No other teams at upstart were affected, we're also limiting hiring and other functions to a small number of positions that are strategic to our business.
鉴于我们平台上贷款量的减少，我们不幸地裁撤了大约140个小时工职位，这占我们贷款操作团队的约7％。这确实令人失望，但为了使我们的运营能力与当前环境保持一致，这是必要的。 Upstart的其他团队没有受到影响，我们还将招聘和其他功能限制在一些对我们业务具有战略意义的职位上。
With the healthy balance sheet robust unit economics and strong pricing power, we believe we're well positioned to navigate an extended period of economic uncertainty while continuing to invest strategically in future growth. Despite these challenges, I'm very optimistic about upstarts future.
凭借健康的资产负债表、稳健的单元经济和强大的定价能力，我们相信我们在持续战胜经济不确定性的同时，能够战略性地投资未来成长。尽管面临这些挑战，我非常乐观地看待Upstart的未来。
There's broad recognition among technology leaders in industry pundits that AI is perhaps the most transformational technology of our time. And risk-based industries such as lending are at the forefront of this incredible opportunity. Has the leader and AI enabled lending, we're well positioned to capitalize on these growing trends and believe that market volatility will only strengthen our position and differentiation over time.
科技领袖和产业评论家普遍认为，人工智能可能是我们这个时代最具变革性的技术。风险导向的行业比如借贷行业将是这个令人难以置信的机遇的最前沿。作为人工智能借贷领域的领导者，我们已经做好了充分的准备来抓住这些不断增长的趋势，并相信市场波动只会加强我们的地位和差异化。
While we dislike the weakened economy as much as you do, the increasing default rates that accompany this weakness serve to train our AI models faster. While other platforms continue to retreat to serving super prime consumers, upstart is rapidly learning how to price and serve mainstream Americans in all market conditions.
尽管我们像你一样不喜欢经济萎靡，但随着这种弱势出现越来越多的违约率，这将有助于更快地训练我们的人工智能模型。虽然其他平台继续退缩以服务最优质的消费者，但Upstart正在迅速学习如何在所有市场情况下定价和服务于普通美国人。
Beyond my conviction in AI and the impact it can have in lending, my optimism also stems from seeing the rapid progress made by each of our product and machine learning teams. Some of the areas where we're making fast progress include first model accuracy. Our AI models have never been more accurate relative to a traditional psycho-based model. And our pace of model development has increased significantly. To be more specific, the increase in upstart's model accuracy in the last four months is as much as we saw in the prior two years.
我对人工智能及其在贷款领域的影响深信不疑，同时也因为看到我们的产品和机器学习团队取得了快速进展而充满乐观。我们在某些领域取得了快速进展，其中包括了首个模型的准确性。相较于传统心理学模型，我们的人工智能模型从来没有更加精准。而且我们的模型开发速度也显著加快。具体来说，在过去四个月里，Upstart的模型准确性增长的幅度甚至比以前两年的总和还要大。
Second, macro reporting and responsiveness. An important goal for upstart is to help wonders understand the direction our economy is trending in order to make more informed decisions about their lending program. To support this goal, we've developed in our beginning to productize the upstart macro index or UMI. This index is a monthly indication of the state of the economy, specifically with regard to consumer financial health and credit performance. At the simplest level, UMI has designed to estimate the level of default to expect in a time period, holding underwriting models and borrowers constant. What's even more interesting is that we have determined that a handful of common economic variables present in the Dodd-Frank stress test can estimate UMI with a high degree of accuracy.
第二：宏观报告和应变能力。Upstart的一个重要目标是帮助投资者了解我们经济的趋势方向，以便更明智地决定他们的借贷计划。为了支持这一目标，我们在产品开发初期就开始开发Upstart宏观指数或UMI。该指数是经济状况的月度指示，特别关注消费者财务健康和信用表现。简单来说，UMI旨在估计一段时间内期望的违约水平，保持核心模型和借款人不变。更有趣的是，我们已经确定了在道富法案压力测试中常见的一些经济变量可以高度准确地估算UMI。
We continue to iterate our methodology with the intention of translating widely available forecasts of macro indicators into an expectation for future levels of default. We believe this is the first time that commonly understood and broadly forecasted economic indicators can predict credit performance and are looking forward to sharing more with you as we refine this tool. Our goal is to be the fastest platform to respond to macro changes and to provide the most relevant and up-to-date information to our lenders. UMI is a big step in that direction.
我们继续完善我们的方法，并旨在将广泛可得的宏观指标预测转化为未来违约水平的预期值。我们相信这是第一次通用且广泛预测的经济指标可以预测信贷绩效，我们期待在完善这一工具后与您分享更多信息。我们的目标是成为最快响应宏观变化并向我们的贷款人提供最相关和最新信息的平台。UMI是朝这个方向的一大步。
Third, automation. In the third quarter, we saw a record 75% of loans fully automated. This came from a variety of efforts, including an experiment to help applicants enter information more accurately that led to an absolute 1.8% lift in instant approvals.
第三点是自动化。在第三季度中，我们看到了75%的贷款完全自动化的记录。这来自于多种努力，包括帮助申请人更准确地输入信息的实验，导致了即时批准率绝对增加1.8%。
Fourth, auto refinance. This quarter saw three significant improvements to our auto-refi product. We launched a new model to more accurately identify loan pay-off amounts. We fine tuned our income verification models. In fine-meet, we improved the process of reviewing registration cards. These upgrades collectively led to a 20% improvement to our auto-refi conversion final.
第四，汽车再融资。本季度我们对汽车再融资产品进行了三项显著的改进。我们推出了一种新模型，以更准确地确定贷款还清金额。我们对收入验证模型进行了微调。最后，我们改进了审核注册卡的流程。这些升级合计导致我们的汽车再融资转换率提高了20%。
Fifth, auto-retail. In Q3, we shipped our largest software release of the year, including a new build and price feature, which allows consumers to build, configure and price autos that the dealer doesn't yet have on the lot. Our software is in more than 700 dealers now. We've also turned on retail lending with three more dealer groups in our now in four states representing 25% of the U.S. auto market by population. In more than one in three auto loan applications, we're automatically verified about double the prior quarter.
第五，自动零售。在第三季度，我们发布了今年最大的软件版本，包括全新的建立和定价功能，使消费者可以构建、配置和定价汽车，这些汽车经销商还没有在场地上。我们的软件现在已经在超过700个经销商手中使用。我们也已经与另外三个经销商集团开始了零售贷款，现在已经覆盖了四个州，代表着美国25%的汽车市场。在超过三分之一的汽车贷款申请中，我们自动验证的比例是上个季度的两倍。
Sixth, small dollar loans. This team shipped too many improvements to name, but in Q3, we saw more than 9,000 small dollar loans on our platform. Almost 4x to prior quarter. In all these loans were to borrowers whom we otherwise would have declined. Smaller and shorter term loans are critical to reach more consumers and to help our AI models learn as quickly as possible. So we're very excited about this progress.
第六个是小额贷款。这个团队进行了太多的改进以至于我们无法一一列举，但在第三季度，我们在平台上看到了超过9000笔小额贷款。相比上个季度增加了近4倍。所有这些贷款都是给予那些我们本来会拒绝的借款人。小额和短期贷款对于吸引更多的消费者和帮助我们的AI模型尽快学习来说至关重要。因此，我们对这个进展感到非常兴奋。
In seventh, small business loans. I told you last quarter that we had reached our first $1 million in SMB loans. We're now we're close to $10 million in loans originated and the team is rapidly shipping improvements as we look to refine that product. With the financial impact of these upgrades for our products is muted in the current environment, we're confident that they'll set us up for a giant leap forward once the economy and credit markets normalize.
在第七部分，是关于小型企业贷款的内容。上个季度，我告诉大家我们获得了第一个100万美元的小企业贷款。现在，我们已经接近1,000万美元的贷款额度，并且我们的团队正在不断推出升级改进，以进一步完善我们的产品。尽管当前环境下这些升级对我们的产品财务影响有所减缓，但我们相信，一旦经济和信贷市场稳定，这些改进将使我们迈向一个巨大的飞跃。
Finally, while there's no shortage of caution among banks and credit unions, I'm also happy to report that we deployed a record 17 new lenders onto our platform on Q3, including a lion credit union, which is a top 10 credit union by asset size. This compares to 17 lenders launched in all of 2021. While these lenders are starting up cautiously, it's encouraging that we're planting seeds for funding capacity in our future. As of today, we have 83 lenders under contract on the upstart platform.
最后，虽然银行和信用社的谨慎态度不缺乏，但我也很高兴地报告，在第三季度我们在平台上部署了创纪录的17个新的放款人，包括狮子信用社，这是资产规模前10的信用社之一。这与2021年全部推出的17家放款机构相比。虽然这些放款机构开始谨慎，但我们为未来的融资能力种下了种子，这是令人鼓舞的。截至今天，我们在Upstart平台上有83个放款人已签订合同。
Before I wrap up, I want to say again, we're not pleased with the results we shared with you today. But when interest rates are rising in the economy is in flux, lenders and credit investors naturally become cautious. Despite this caution, our lenders will tell you that the performance of your upstart power credit has met or exceeded expectations over time. We don't like volatility anymore than you do, but we won't allow it to set us off course from our long-term goal to reinvent how credit works.
在我结束之前，我想再次说一遍，今天我们分享给你们的结果并没有让我们感到满意。但是当利率上升和经济不稳定时，贷款人和信用投资者自然会变得谨慎。尽管如此，我们的贷款人会告诉您，您的Upstart Power 信用的表现在时间上已经达到或超过了预期。和您一样，我们不喜欢波动，但我们不会让它偏离我们重新发明信用运作的长期目标。
Our goal is to become the destination with the best rates and the best process for all forms of credit for everyone. This can't and won't be done by a single bank, but it can be done by a vast network of banks, credit unions and credit investors powered by a modern cloud-based AI platform. Great companies separate themselves from merely good ones during the hardest of times. They're clear-eyed about how the environment has changed. They make smart and fast decisions in order to write out the turbulence, but they also retain an optimistic focus on the horizon as they continue to invest in the future. You have my full commitment to ensure upstart is exactly that type of company.
我们的目标是成为所有信用形式的最佳利率和最佳流程目的地，适用于所有人。这不可能也不会通过单一银行实现，但可以通过由现代云基础AI平台驱动的大量银行、信用联盟和信用投资者的庞大网络来实现。伟大的公司在最困难的时期将自己与仅仅普通的公司区分开来。他们清醒地认识到环境已经发生了改变。他们做出明智而迅速的决策，以应对动荡，但他们也保持着对未来的乐观关注，并继续投资于未来。我完全致力于确保Upstart成为这种类型的公司。
Thank you, and now we'd like to turn it over to Sanjay, our Chief Financial Officer, to walk through our key through financial results and guidance.
谢谢大家，现在我们想把话题转给我们的首席财务官Sanjay，他将介绍我们关键的财务业绩和指导方针。
Sanjay? Thanks, Dave, and thanks to all for joining us today. As Dave has alluded to, the external environment continues to be a challenging one, particularly for those less affluent borrowers with limited access to credit that are at the core of upstart's mission. Consumers have simultaneously whittled personal savings rates from pre-pandemic levels of roughly 9% down to 3.3% in Q3, a level not seen since the great financial crisis, and have swaled credit card balances to all-time record highs.
大家好，感谢参加今天的会议，特别感谢Dave。正如Dave所提到的，外部环境仍然具有挑战性，特别是对于那些收入较低，信用受限的借款人，他们是Upstart的使命核心。消费者的个人储蓄率从疫情前的大约9%降至Q3的3.3%，这是自金融危机以来没有见过的水平，同时信用卡余额达到历史最高点。
Dave's rates have dwindled and credit card balances have inflated to pay for what has been a continuing expansion in real consumption, so far with no corresponding increase in either real wages or labor force participation since the advent of COVID. As a consequence, defaults are on the rise. Industry-wide data shows that less affluent borrowers are leading the way, with impairment levels on unsatured personal loans that are about twice as high as they were prior to the onset of COVID. By way of comparison, highly affluent borrowers are now roughly back to being in line with pre-COVID impairment levels, although they continue to be on the rise.
Dave的利率已经下降了，信用卡余额不断增加，以支付实际消费的持续扩张，到目前为止，由于COVID的出现，实际工资和劳动力参与都没有相应的增加。因此，违约率正在上升。行业范围的数据显示，较不富裕的借款人正在带头，未受限制的个人贷款的损失率大约是COVID爆发前的两倍。相比之下，高度富裕的借款人现在大致回到了COVID爆发前的损失率水平，尽管它们仍在上升。
The upstart macro index, previously referenced by Dave, is our internal way of articulating the impact of the external macro environment on loan defaults in our particular borrower portfolio by controlling for underwriting model changes and shifting borrower characteristics over time. The most recent index level of around 1.7 tells us that the Q-through environment produced 70% more defaults than we would expect from our borrower base in a long run normal macro environment. This number is also approximately 20% higher than what we had observed when we last reported earnings in August.
新兴的宏观指数（upstart macro index），是我们公司内部用来衡量外部宏观环境对我们借款人组合中贷款违约影响的方法；并且控制了在不同时间点下信贷模型变化和借款人特征变化的影响。最近一期的指数约为1.7，这意味着相较于长期正常的宏观环境，Q期间导致的贷款违约率比我们预期的要高70%。这个数字也比我们在八月份上次公布收益时观察到的高了约20%。
As a result of our model's adjustments to these changing macroeconomic conditions, our loans today are being priced at APR that are significantly higher than those from the beginning of the year, which is one of the principal driving factors behind the overall volume contraction our businesses currently experiencing. As Dave has said, this is in fact working as intended.
由于我们的模型对这些变化的宏观经济条件进行了调整，我们今天的贷款利率要比年初显著高，这是我们业务目前总体量萎缩的主要推动因素之一。正如Dave所说，实际上这正是我们想要的效果。
On the loan funding side, a brief period of late summer optimism in the ABS market systems receded and loan funding in general remains challenging. Overall financing costs for our securities investors are up about 500 basis points since last year. These higher financing costs and the general scarcity of available capital has contributed to the volume pressure on the business.
在贷款资金方面，ABS市场系统在晚夏期间出现了短暂的乐观，但随后消退，贷款资金总体上仍然具有挑战性。自去年以来，我们的证券投资者的整体融资成本上涨了大约500个基点。这些较高的融资成本以及可用资本的普遍稀缺情况，已经导致企业面临着交易量的压力。
With the proceeding context, here now are some of the financial highlights from the past quarter. On the top line, revenue from fees of $179 million was largely in line with our expectations. However, negative fair value adjustments and losses on sale incurred by the loans on our balance sheet brought overall net revenue down to $157 million. Short of our guidance and representing a 31% contraction, both sequentially and year over year.
在前文的背景下，现在介绍过去一个季度的一些财务亮点。营收收入的部分，我们从费用中获得了1.79亿美元的收入，这与我们的预期基本一致。然而，由于我们资产负债表上的贷款的公允价值调整和销售损失产生的负面影响，使得整体净收入降至1.57亿美元。这份业绩不仅低于我们的指导预期，而且同比和环比均出现了31%的下降。
The volume of loan transactions across our platform in Q3 was approximately 188,000 loans, down 48% year over year, and representing over 125,000 new borrowers. Average loan size was up 14% versus last year. Our contribution margin, a non-gap metric which we define as revenue from fees minus variable costs for borrow or acquisition, verification and servicing, came in at 54% in Q3, up from 47% last quarter, but still behind our guidance.
我们平台在第三季度的贷款交易额约为18.8万笔，同比下降48%，代表新增借款人超过12.5万人。平均贷款额比去年增长14%。我们的贡献率为54%，这是一个非差异指标，指的是从借款或获取、验证和服务等方面扣除变量成本后收取的费用减去收入，相比上一季度的47%有所提升，但仍未达到我们的预期目标。
We have been successful in expanding our margins through higher take rates and more efficient marketing spend, and we expect this to continue in Q4. Operating expenses were $250 million in Q3, down 17% sequentially. We reduced our sales and marketing by 46% sequentially to reflect a weakened conversion funnel, which has declined as a result of our higher offer rates. Engineering and product development grew 16% sequentially, and general administrative spend grew 2% sequentially.
我们已成功通过提高收费率和更有效的市场推广，扩大了我们的利润率，并预计这种趋势在第四季度会持续下去。第三季度的运营费用为2.5亿美元，环比下降17%。我们适应了转化漏斗减弱的情况，将销售和市场推广环比削减了46%，这是由于我们提高的报价率所导致的。工程和产品开发环比增长了16%，一般行政支出环比增长了2%。
Across both areas, hiring has now largely been limited to only a few key strategic positions. Taken together, these components resulted in a Q3 gap net income of negative $56.2 million. Adjusted EBITDA was negative $14.4 million, and adjusted earnings per share was negative $0.24, based on a diluted weighted average share count of 81.7 million.
在这两个领域中，招聘现在主要仅限于一些重要的战略职位。这些因素共同导致Q3净收益为负5,620万美元。经过调整的EBITDA为负1,440万美元，每股调整后的收益为负0.24美元，基于81.7亿股稀释加权平均股数。
We continue to be in a favorable liquidity position, with $830 million of total cash, and $431 million in net loan equity on our balance sheet. Our gross balance of loan assets at the end of the quarter was $700 million, up $76 million from last quarter. Of that total, loans made for the purposes of R&D represented $451 million, principally within the auto segment, and our balance of core personal loans to the $249 million.
我们的流动性状况仍然良好，资产负债表上总现金为8.3亿美元，净贷款权益为4.31亿美元。本季度末，我们的贷款资产总额为7亿美元，比上一季度增加了7600万美元。其中，研发贷款占4510万美元，主要集中在汽车领域，核心个人贷款为2.49亿美元。
The near-term outlook for our business remains tied to the direction of the macro economy, and while this has historically proven hard to predict, we are currently pricing our loans, expecting a further degradation in the environment in our macro index. The volume assumptions underpinning our revenue and earnings guidance are consistent with this outlook.
我们业务的近期前景仍与宏观经济的走向紧密相连。虽然历史上很难预测，但我们目前正在定价我们的贷款，预计我们的宏观指数环境将进一步恶化。支撑我们收入和盈利指导的交易量假设与此前景一致。
In order to provide some additional insight into revenue, we are splitting out our top-line guidance between revenue from fees, which reflect our baseline volume and fee expectations, and net interest income, which includes impacts from fair value and gain on sale.
为了提供额外的收入洞察，我们将我们的营业额指导分成费用收入和净利息收入。费用收入反映了我们的基线交易量和收费预期，而净利息收入则包括来自公允价值和销售收益的影响。
With these specifics in mind, for Q4 of 2022, we will expect revenues of between $125 million and $145 million. Within that, we expect revenue from fees of approximately $160 million, and net interest income of approximately negative $25 million. Contribution margin of approximately 54%, net income of approximately negative $87 million, adjusted net income of approximately negative $40 million, adjusted EBITDA of approximately negative $35 million, and a diluted weighted average share count of approximately 89.3 million shares.
考虑到这些具体情况，我们预计2022年第四季度的收入将在1.25亿美元到1.45亿美元之间。其中，我们预计费用收入约为1.6亿美元，利息净收入约为负2.5亿美元。贡献率约为54%，净收入约为负8,700万美元，经调整后的净收入约为负4,000万美元，调整后的EBITDA约为负3,500万美元，稀释加权平均股份约为8,930万股。
As ever, we will take this opportunity to extend our gratitude to all of the employees at Epstar, who continue to make daily progress against our underlying business and technology goals, in what continues to be a challenging external environment around us all. And with that, Dave and I are now happy to open the call to any questions.
一如既往，我们要借此机会向 Epstar 的所有员工表达感激之情，感谢他们在一个外部环境依然具有挑战性的情况下，继续日复一日地推进我们的业务和技术目标。在此，Dave 和我很高兴地开放提问环节。
Operator, back to you. If you would like to ask a question, please signal by pressing star one on your telephone keypad. If you are using a speaker phone, please make sure your mute function is turned off to allow your signal to reach our equipment. Once again, if you would like to ask a question, please press star one.
操作员，回到你了。如果你想提问，请按下你的电话键盘上的星号一键来发出信号。如果你使用的是扬声器电话，请确保关闭你的静音功能，以便你的信号能够到达我们的设备。再次提醒，如果你想提问，请按下星号一键。
We will take our first question from David, Sharf with JMP Securities. Please go ahead.
我们将从David Sharf（来自JMP Securities）提出我们的第一个问题。请发言。
意思是我们要从David Sharf那里提出第一个问题，并请他发言。
Great. Thanks, and thanks for taking my questions today. Dave, I guess for Sanji as well, maybe ask a little bit of a longer term strategic question, as it relates to structure. Obviously, funding, environment is going to go through dislocations here and ultimately resolve themselves. But I guess in terms of the structure of the business, I know last quarter you talked about seeking some more longer term partners.
非常感谢您今天回答我的问题。戴夫，我想对于三木（Sanji）也是一样，或许可以问一个更长期的战略性问题，与结构有关。显然，资金和环境都将经历短期的紊乱，最终会得到解决。但我想了解的是，就业务结构而言，上个季度您谈到了寻求更多的长期合作伙伴。
And reflecting on some of your all digital lending peers, there seem to be a lot of different ways to skin the cat in your industry. Lending club went out and got a bank charter. Pegayo has gone for pre-funding securitizations and investment vehicles exclusively. Lending point, they have always kind of opted for a 60-40 mix between loan retention and securitization. Obviously, as you noted, the macro environment is going to shift and ultimately will emerge on the other side.
回顾一下所有数字化借贷同行，你们行业似乎有很多不同的方法去实现成功。Lending Club获得了银行牌照。Pegayo专注于预先融资证券化和投资工具。Lending Point一直选择借贷保留和证券化的60:40混合比例。显然，正如你所指出的，宏观环境将发生变化，并最终度过低谷。
But in terms of strategically thinking about the types of dislocations that are happening right now, is a different longer term funding structure, something the company evaluates every now and then? Hi, this is Dave. That's a good question. We certainly think about funding on our platform pretty much constantly.
但是从战略角度考虑目前发生的不同类型的剐蹭，公司有没有不同的长期资金结构，这是公司时不时会评估的一个问题？嗨，这是戴夫。那是个好问题。我们确实一直在思考我们平台上的资金问题。
But I will say this, we believe fundamentally in a marketplace structure. In the sense that a lot of lenders making independent decisions over the long haul is going to get to the right answer. Market-based economies are historically far more efficient than centrally planned economies. That's a very basic two-ism. But having said that, we don't want to become a centrally planned economy. We don't believe us being a bank makes a lot of sense for what we hope to pursue for lots of reasons.
但是我要说的是，我们基本上相信市场结构。很多独立作出决策的放贷人会长期得出正确的答案。基于市场的经济体系在历史上比计划经济更为高效。这是一个非常基本的对比。但是我们不希望成为计划经济。出于很多原因，我们不认为成为银行对我们追求的目标有多大意义。
But having said that, we can certainly do a better job of securing a supply of funding on our platform. And that can really be through some of the things we talked about getting longer term funding agreements in place, being in more products, more diverse set of products such as secured products like auto loans, mortgages, et cetera. So it is certainly something we have to think hard about and do more work on. But underneath it all, we do believe a market-based economy, a marketplace where there's a lot of participants on both sides will ultimately have the greatest scale and the greatest opportunity. I'll be it. We're dealing with volatility today, but over the long haul where confidence will lead to the greatest outcome for upstart.
然而，我们可以肯定地做得更好地保障我们平台资金的供应。这确实可以通过我们所谈论的一些方法实现，例如建立更长期的融资协议，推出更多的产品以及更多样化的产品，例如担保产品，如汽车贷款、抵押贷款等等。所以这肯定是我们需要认真考虑并进行更多努力的事情。但在此背景下，我们确实认为市场化经济和市场，其中有大量的参与方，最终将获得最大的规模和最大的机会。虽然今天我们正在处理波动性，但在长期内，信心将为Upstart带来最大的成果。
Got it. No, I appreciate the color, Dave. And maybe just as a follow-up digging a little deeper on the funding side. You know, obviously, Sanjay noted, I mean, the ABS markets, you know, remain a bit volatile, but you know, at the same time, even though spreads are wider, you know, we've actually seen in the last couple of weeks, months, a number of non-prime deals start to get done, you know, a Nova opportune, regional management.
明白了。不，我很欣赏这个颜色，戴夫。也许就资金方面再深入挖掘一下吧。你知道的，肯定的是，萨吉已经提到了，ABS市场仍然有一点不稳定，但与此同时，尽管利差变大了，我们实际上在过去几个星期、几个月中看到了许多非主流交易，例如Nova Opportune、Regional Management等等。
So spread's been remained wider, but investors are stepping up for the, you know, unsecured personal loan, non-prime asset class. Any further update you can provide based on either anecdotal on discussions you have with existing bond investors or, you know, when you would think you might be able to return to the market. Yeah, hey, David, this is Sanjay. As you said, it's volatile. We remain in the market.
由于未担保的个人贷款和非优质资产类别的投资者加强了投资，因此利差的差距仍然很大。您可以根据您与现有债券投资者的讨论或其他经验来提供进一步的更新，或者您认为何时可能返回市场。嗯，嘿，大卫，这是Sanjay。正如您所说，市场波动不定。我们仍在市场上。
You know, we completed a couple of deals in Q3 and we're going to be back in the marketing Q4. Our cadence, you know, is generally every sort of, you know, two to three months or so. And I think we've been holding to that cadence. So like you said, you know, cost of funds, spreads are all pretty volatile. And they will sort of dictate the economics and then you give a deal. But there's, there's always, you know, deals to be done or at least until now there's, there's deal to be done. So, you know, so we're going to continue with that cadence. And, and we have, you know, stable investors who are contributing to those skiridizations who are, you know, continue to have interest in contributing the collateral into the skiridizations as well.
你知道，我们在第三季度完成了几笔交易，我们将在第四季度回归市场营销。我们通常每隔两三个月保持这样的节奏。我认为我们一直在坚持这个节奏。就像你所说的，资金成本和利差是相当不稳定的。它们将决定交易的经济效益。但是，目前仍然存在可以完成的交易。因此，我们将继续按照这个节奏进行。同时，我们也有稳定的投资者为这些证券化产品提供资金，他们也有兴趣为这些证券化产品提供抵押品。
Great. Thank you very much. We will take our next question from Ramsey, El Asal with Mark Lays. Please go ahead.
太好了，非常感谢。我们将接下来的问题交给Mark Lays的Ramsey, El Asal。请发言。
Alright. Thanks for taking my question this evening. I wanted to ask about the on balance sheet loans. It looks like that number went up about $780 million this quarter to around $700 million. I'm just curious in terms of going forward what your plans are there. Do you intend to stabilize that number here or ship will go up? We'll go down.
好的，感谢今天晚上回答我的问题。我想问的是关于资产负债表贷款的情况。看起来这个数字在本季度增加了大约7.8亿美元，达到了约70亿美元。我只是好奇你们未来的计划是什么。你们是否打算稳定这个数字，还是会上升还是下降呢？
Actually kind of think about that from modeling purposes. Hey Ramsey, I was just saying, yeah, I don't think we're necessarily guided a specific guideline or a number with respect to our balance sheet. I think we gave some sort of high level parameters last quarter. And I think we obviously operated within that. And I think that that will continue to be the case. So, you know, I think that whether we draw it up or draw it down over the next quarter. So we'll continue to be an operating decision. We sort of discuss and take, but I think it'll be within the parameters what you saw in the last quarter.
实际上，我认为我们需要从建模的角度考虑这个问题。嘿，Ramsey，我只是想说，我不认为我们必须遵循某个具体的平衡表指南或数字。上个季度我们给出了一些高层参数。我们显然是在这个范围内进行操作。而且我认为这种情况将继续存在。所以，我认为无论我们接下来是增加还是减少资产负债表，这将继续是一项决策。我们会讨论并做出决策，但我认为它将在上一季度的参数范围内进行。
Got it. Okay. And then a quick follow from me was just on the conversion rate on the rate request. I think that as you mentioned, it's a tougher environment that trended I think down 300 plus basis points quarter of recorder. Also, they're just curious from a modeling perspective. Do we keep that sort of stable here? Or is that a metric that we could see deteriorate further or is the answer? It's just contingent on the environment and how it evolves.
好的，我明白了。然后我有一个快速跟进问题与转化率请求有关。正如你提到的，这是一个更加困难的环境，季度记录下降了300多个基点。我很好奇从建模的角度来看，我们是否会保持这样的稳态？或者这是一个我们可能会看到进一步恶化的指标，还是答案取决于环境的演变？
Yeah, thanks very much. It's a good question. I mean, I think that I would bring it back to the vocabulary of this upstart macro index, which day reference, which as we said, we said we, we've started disclosing in our investor materials. It essentially isn't in it's an index to try and capture the external macros impact on defaults. And you know, the simple way to think about our conversion rate is that index went up about 20% versus last quarter. So that's sort of an expression of the fact that the macros impacting defaults in our portfolio by that amount. And when that happens, our models recalibrate, APRs go up and essentially approval rates and acceptance rates both go down. So, you know, in terms of how to think about it on the go forward, it really kind of amounts to what you think about macro conditions.
非常感谢你提出这个好问题。我认为，我会把它归结为这个新兴的宏观指数的词汇，这个指数参考了每天的情况，正如我们所说，我们开始在我们的投资者材料中公开披露该指数。它本质上试图捕捉宏观因素对违约的影响。简单来说，我们的转化率可以表示为该指数相对上季度增长了约20%。这表明宏观因素对我们的组合违约率产生了这么多影响。当这种情况发生时，我们的模型重新校准，APR上升，批准率和接受率都下降。因此，关于如何考虑这个问题的未来，这实际上取决于您对宏观经济条件的看法。
And if you know defaults are going to continue to go up or normalize or stabilize or maybe even reverse course at some point, that will really dictate the offers that we're making and hence the conversion.
如果您知道拖欠支付的情况将继续上升、正常化、稳定化或甚至在某些时刻反转，那么这将真正决定我们所做的报价以及转化率。
Got it. Thank you very much. We will take our next question from Peter Christensen with city. Please go ahead. One moment, please. Mr. Christian, so your line is now open.
明白了，非常感谢。我们将接下来的问题给彼得.克里斯滕森来自城市。请你开始。请稍等一下，克里斯滕先生，现在您的线路已经打通了。
Oh, thank you. Thanks for the question here. Good evening. I want to ask about again, back to rate request, the previous question. It looks like they were down considerably sequentially. Not even looking at the conversion rate yet, but at least the very top of the funnel. Just wondering, are you taking a different go to market approach in terms of attracting new borrowers to the platform? And, you know, how should we think about, you know, that in context to, you know, this potential rise in like that consolidation and those kind of scenes. Just wondering how your go to market is changing there in top of funnel, new, new borrowers.
非常感谢。感谢您在这里提出的问题。晚上好。我想再次问关于之前那个利率请求的问题。它看起来在连续几个季度内显著下降。即使还没考虑转化率，至少最初阶段已经有所下降。只是想知道，您是否正在采用不同的市场进军方法来吸引新的借款人？另外，我们应该如何考虑类似于并购和那些情景下的潜在涨价？只是想知道您的市场推广在新借款人这一阶段有什么变化。
Thank you. Yeah, Pete, this is Sunday. Go ahead. Go ahead, go ahead, Sanjay. So I was just all out and sure they can add to their response, but a lot of our, you know, marketing activities are in fact governed by the conversion funnel in the sense that, you know, when lots of estimates go up, conversions go down. We target our marketing campaign size and our activities to some target unit economics. And when the conversion funnel is weaker, we, you know, reduce marketing size accordingly. So there's always this sort of like this two step, you know, process whereby conversion funnel improves. It converts more and we expand marketing and then the reverse is true. Of course, when the marketing funnel contracts. I think the generous of the question is like, how do you think about spend on on lead gen generally?
谢谢。是的，Pete，今天是星期天。请说，Sanjay。我刚才认真分析了一下情况，虽然他们可能会提高他们的回应率，但我们的许多市场活动实际上受到转化漏斗的控制。当估计量增加时，转化率会下降。我们将市场营销活动的规模和行为定位到某个目标单元经济中。当转化漏斗较弱时，我们会相应减少市场营销规模。因此，这种流程可以分成两步，其中转化漏斗的改善将使转化率提高，我们将扩大市场营销，反之亦然, 当市场营销漏斗收缩时。我认为问题的关键是：你如何考虑潜在客户的开支？
The spend on the lead gen is sort of an, it's sort of a function of how performing our conversion funnel is. So, you know, we will spend up until the point where the marginal return on the marketing dollar is zero in a sense. And so sort of what I mean is that our conversion funnel improves. We will spend more on lead gen because it'll be more economical will be able to spend more up until the point where the marginal cost is zero and vice versa. And so it's been happening recently is, as our conversion funnel is impacted by higher losses in the portfolio, our target sort of unit economics contracts.
我们在潜在客户生成方面的支出，在很大程度上取决于我们的转化漏斗的表现。因此，我们会一直支出，直到市场营销成本与获得的回报相等。也就是说，如果我们的转化漏斗表现更好，我们将会更经济地获得更多的潜在客户，并支出更多的资金。然而，如果营销成本超过了获得的回报，我们将会停止支出。最近，随着我们的转化漏斗收益下降，我们的目标单位经济规模缩小了。
Great. Thanks for the color, so I'm sorry. We will take our next question from Mike Eing with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
太好了，谢谢您提供颜色，不好意思。接下来请高盛的Mike Eing提问。请讲。
Hey, good afternoon. Thank you very much for the question. I just had two. First, I was just wondering if you could tell us what the transaction fee rate, you know, as a percentage of fund principal was in the quarter. You know, obviously ex servicing fees and how we should think about the opportunity to continue to take pricing going forward. And then secondly, I was wondering if you could talk about how much of the principal in the quarter was, you know, self funded off of the upstart balance sheet versus, you know, just the core model. Thank you very much.
你好，下午好。非常感谢你的问题。我有两个问题。首先，我想知道在这个季度中，交易费率是基金本金的百分之多少，不包括服务费，我们应该如何考虑未来继续定价的机会。其次，我想知道在这个季度中，有多少本金是自主从Upstart资产负债表中资助的，而不是核心模型。非常感谢。
Yeah, thanks, Mike. I'll, this is Dave. I'll take the first part of the question with Sanjay perhaps answer the second. And the first we have, we're able to basically increase revenues by increasing fees on a per loan basis. And then also as Sanjay was suggesting earlier our acquisition spend per loan. At a time like this can go down a lot. So in effect, the economics on each loan is significantly better. Much more sort of gross profit per loan. I'll be at a lower loan volume. So those are things within our control, which is why you know, contribution margin has gotten higher during this time. And I think that's, you know, sort of a form of pricing power that means we can, when we need to be in a little bit of a defensive mode. Can make sure that we're monetizing well enough to cover our expenses, etc. And we do that as a very positive part of our platform.
嗯，谢谢，迈克。我是戴夫。我会回答第一部分的问题，也许让桑杰回答第二部分。首先，我们能够通过每笔贷款的费用增加，实现收入的增加。此外，正如桑杰之前所提到的，我们对每笔贷款的收购支出可以减少很多。因此，每笔贷款的经济效益显著提高。虽然借贷量会降低，但每笔贷款的毛利润要好得多。这些都是我们可以控制的因素，这就是为什么我们的贡献利润率在这段时间内变得更高的原因。我认为这是一种定价权的体现，意味着我们在需要保守一点的时候，可以确保我们的货币化足够覆盖我们的开支等。我们认为这是我们平台的一个非常积极的部分。
We will take our next question from Simon clinch with Atlantic equities. Please go ahead. Hi guys, thanks for taking my question. I was wondering if we could just start with the contribution margin. I just wonder if you could talk about, I guess how, how, because the guidance for 59% in the quarter, you're quite short of that, but it also implied that I think you're tracking well above that. That's probably entering the quarters. I'm just kind of curious about the dynamics that go into contribution margin that are within your control and not within your control. And how do you think about that going forward?
我们接下来的问题是来自大西洋股权的Simon Clinch。请发言吧。嗨，谢谢你们回答我的问题。我想知道我们是否可以先从贡献边际开始讲起。我只是想知道，因为这一季度的指引为59％，而你们的表现不够好，但是它也意味着你们的追踪情况很好，可能进入了季度。我只是有点好奇控制贡献边际的动力学因素和无法控制的因素，以及你们如何考虑未来的发展。
Yeah, this is Sanjay. Yeah, that's, that's a great question. So, um, it's the dynamics and the contribution margin are, you know, it was up from last quarter. 47 to approximately 54. It was sort of our guidance. Maybe one simple way to think about it is, you know, when we are funding constraint is a platform, we tend to expand contribution margins and we do that by expanding take rates. And it makes sense to do that when you're funding constraint. Now, when you're borrower constrained, you sort of do the opposite. You want to sell for volume and you can take down your take rates a little bit and expand volume. And I think we probably assumed we'd be funding constrained for all of this quarter, this past quarter. In reality, we've sort of bounced back and forth a little bit. We've been, you know, at times funding constraint and at times borrower constrained. And at those times where we've been borrower constrained, we've actually acted to reduce contribution margins a little bit. And so, you know, I think that we are sort of bouncing around between those two states. And as we go into queue for to the extent we are funding constraint in a given period of time or our contribution margins would be above the numbers that we produced and probably closer in line to what we have guided. But to the extent we are, you know, borrower constrained and again, the borrower constraints really come from the fact that our macro index is so high that the approval rates are low. You'll see sort of lower conversion rates more in line as well. How we looked in queue to probably so the outcome is sort of a function of where we are between those two states.
嗯，我是Sanjay。是的，那是个很好的问题。所以，动态和贡献边际，你知道，它从上个季度提高了。从47提高到了约54。这是我们的指导。也许一个简单的想法是，当我们在平台上面临资金约束时，我们倾向于扩大贡献边际，通过扩大收取费率来实现。当你面临资金限制时这样做很合理。现在，当你面临借款限制时，你会做相反的事情。你想要批量销售并且可以降低收费率并扩大销售量。我认为我们假设我们在这个季度的所有时间都面临资金约束。事实上，我们有一些起伏。我们有时面临资金限制，有时面临借款限制。在我们面临借款限制的时候，我们会实际上稍微降低贡献边际。所以，我认为我们在这两个状态之间徘徊。当我们进入下一个季度时，如果我们在某个时期面临资金约束或者我们的贡献边际高于我们制定的数据，那么我们的数字可能会更接近我们预测的。但如果我们受到借款限制的影响，而且借款限制实际上是因为我们的宏观指数太高而导致批准率低，你会看到更接近的转化率。我们看待第四季度的结果可能就是这两种情况之间的一个函数。
Okay, pretty sure. And I was wondering if you're dropping back to the structure of your your funding and and sort of the upside of the investment at the moment. I mean, could you go a little bit? I mean, how far have you got in terms of exploring the idea of having, you know, of shifting the base towards more long term investors and maybe this update about your thinking on that?
好的，我很确定。我想知道你是否正在回到你的融资结构以及投资回报方面，并且现在是否已经探索了更多向长期投资者转移基础的想法？能否再讲解一些？你对此的想法有何更新？
So, could you just repeat the very last part of your question? What is there thinking in terms of what? About the shift towards finding more longer term.
所以，你能否重复一下你问题的最后一部分？他们在考虑什么方面？关于更加注重长期发展的转变。
I see. Well, just to describe it at a high level, I mean, historically, you know, we've been sort of like three quarters institutionally funded and about a quarter bank funded that that ratio has changed. And it's the percentage of bank funding on our platform has grown quite a bit. It's been a more stable source of capital.
我明白了。嗯，简单说一下，我们过去的资金来源，大约有三分之三是机构提供的资助，还有四分之一是银行提供的贷款。但这个比例已经改变了，我们平台上的银行资金比例增长了很多，成为了更为稳定的资本来源。
The institutional world has obviously been a lot more volatile. And then within the institutional side, you know, I think there's a desire as we talked to the last quarter to enter into some more strategic transactions and more sort of committed sort of type partnerships. I would just say we're in a number of encouraging conversations, but they're all quite preliminary. And I think we view this as being something that's not going to happen overnight.
机构世界显然更加波动。而在机构领域内部，我认为有一种渴望，就像我们上季度谈到的那样，希望参与更多的战略交易和更具承诺性的伙伴关系。我只想说，我们正在进行一些令人鼓舞的交流，但它们都还处于初级阶段。我认为我们应该将其视为不会一夜之间发生的事情。
It's something that you know, to the extent we get into those types of partnerships, they're not out of, you know, out of a sense of urgency. It's more about doing the right thing for the future of the platform. And I think those partnerships are available, but they may take some time to put into place because they're important and large in strategic. So, you know, nothing more concrete than that to report on that right now, but I think we're pretty encouraged at the opportunities that are out there.
这是你所知道的一些事情，就我们进入合作伙伴关系的程度而言，它们并非出于紧迫感。更多是出于未来平台的正确做法。我认为这些合作伙伴关系是可行的，但是由于它们的重要性和战略性，可能需要一些时间来达成。所以现在没有更具体的报告，但我认为我们对这些机会相当有信心。
Okay. Thanks. We'll go next to James Fawcett with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead. Thanks. This is Sandy Beatty on for James.
好的，谢谢。我们接下来将转到摩根士丹利的詹姆斯·福赛特。请讲。谢谢。我是桑迪·比蒂，代表詹姆斯参加此次会议。
A question on the Ford Flow funding process. How volatile is that month to month? So you mentioned some summer optimism. And I'm trying to get a sense of how volatile is that? What factors determine that volatility? Is it is it cost of capital opinions about future credit performance? How do those conversations typically go? And is there any insight that you can provide us into that process?
这是有关福特流程资金的问题。这个月与月之间的波动性有多大？你提到了一些夏季的乐观情绪，我想知道这个波动性有多大？是什么因素决定了这种波动性？是资本成本和未来信用表现的意见吗？这些对话通常会怎样进行？你能否为我们提供一些关于这个过程的见解？
Sure. Yeah. This is on Jaygan. I wouldn't necessarily characterize it as volatile in so far as you know, volatile is absent flows. I really would characterize it as, you know, a level of funding that degraded pretty steadily. You know, let's call it between between say March and August or July slash August and since then it's been at a pretty stable level, although, you know, obviously one of those was much lower than earlier in the year.
当然。是的。这是关于Jaygan的。我不认为它特别容易波动，因为缺乏资金流。我认为更应该说，资金水平逐渐下降。从三月到八月或七月/八月之间，我们可以这么说，在此之后一直维持在一个相当稳定的水平，尽管其中一个水平比今年早期低很多。
So since then, it's not like there's been a bunch of coming and going. I think there's, you could sort of characterize it as there's been a number of partners of ours, funding partners of ours, predominantly with those who have worked with us for a longer period of time. So it's been steady and stable in their in their activity and there's been a lot of people who maybe those who've been working with us for a lesser period of time and are a little bit more sort of dependent on the ABS markets. And they've largely set on the sidelines is there sort of waiting to see how the world plays out.
自那时以来，我们并没有经历过一大堆人员的进入和离开。我认为可以将此描述为我们的一些合作伙伴，主要是长期与我们合作的资金伙伴。在他们的活动中，稳定性和稳定性一直存在。还有很多人，他们可能是那些与我们合作时间较短且更依赖ABS市场的人员。他们大多坐在一旁等待着看世界是如何运行的。
Got it. And then just to follow up on on profitability. In terms of the quarter and also the guidance, how are you thinking about managing that cost structure going forward and how should we think about impact from the reason workforce reductions and how that might reduce pressures or reduce costs on a run rate basis. Sure, yeah.
明白了。就盈利能力而言，就季度和指引而言，您如何考虑管理成本结构，并且如何考虑在运营基础上减少来自裁员的影响，从而降低压力或减少成本。当然。
I mean, I think that of the components of our cost structure, we think about the contribution margin, obviously, and we sort of guided that at a level. Next quarter, that's comparable to where we are now. So something in the mid 50s. The reduction in force that we did really will have, you know, as that runs its course, a positive impact on contribution margins. Because really that was about right sizing, you know, the size of the onboarding team that's processing the incoming loans to be a bit more in line with the volumes that we have.
我的意思是，在我们的成本结构中，我们当然要考虑贡献边际，我们已经定下了一个水平，接下来一个季度，我们的水平应该与现在相当，大约在50%左右。我们进行的裁员真的会对贡献边际产生积极影响，因为这实际上是为了让我们的入职团队规模更符合我们现有的信贷量，即实现合理的“右大小”。
With respect to the sort of what we call the fixed sort of a payroll between our engineering and technology teams and our general administrative teams. There we've pretty much, you know, paused hiring, except for a couple of very strategic roles that are important to fill. And so I think you could expect to see a stable sort of fixed op-ex space. And that's something that, you know, we continue to sort of evaluate every quarter. And I think we like the size of that op-ex space given where we are now. And obviously, you know, the world can take a number of different directions. And if we start to recover, we'll be in good shape.
关于我们所称的工程和技术团队与普通管理团队的工资固定类别，我们已经基本暂停了招聘，除了一些非常关键的职位需要填补。因此，您可以期望看到一个稳定的固定经常支出空间。这是我们每个季度都在评估的事情。我认为，鉴于我们目前所处的位置，我们喜欢那个经常支出空间的规模。显然，世界可能会采取许多不同的方向。如果我们开始复苏，我们会处于良好状态。
If we continue to do great, we'll continue to sort of evaluate as we go. But, you know, beyond what we've done with existing reduction in force, there's no plans in place to go any farther at this time. Got it. Thanks for taking my questions.
如果我们继续做得很好，我们将继续在路上逐步评估。但是，你知道，除了我们已经通过现有的精简人员措施所做的之外，目前没有进一步方案。明白了，感谢回答我的问题。
Thank you. We will take our next question from Vincent Kinktick with Stevens. Please go ahead. Hi, thanks for taking my questions.
谢谢。接下来请我们来自Stevens的Vincent Kinktick提问。请讲。嗨，感谢您回答我的问题。
First question actually on the slide 12 in your deck, the upstart platform performance versus target is recovering slide. Just wanted to talk about that in more detail and, you know, seeing that that's improved just wondering, you know, if essentially wonder when you think maybe investor demand can come back or volume the neck and come back. And of the customers being priced in 800 basis points higher and your investors are seeing 500 basis points higher. Is there, you know, when, when do you think we can maybe see visibility into improving demand, whether it's on the credit demand side or in the bar of demand side?
第一个问题实际上在您的介绍中的第12张幻灯片上，讨论了新兴平台的表现与目标的恢复情况。我想更详细地谈一下，看到这种进展，我想知道您是否认为投资者需求或交易量什么时候可能回升。此外，客户的利率比投资者高800基点，而投资者则高500基点。您认为在信贷需求方面或发行需求方面，我们何时可能看到改善需求的可见性？
Yeah, Vincent, this is Sanjay. It is a great question in a sense. It's a million dollar question. I mean, I think, you know, the return of sort of confidence and funding and the institutional side sort of requires a convergence of those two lines. And in a sense, we're chasing a trend that's on the prior slide, where I guess it would be on slide 10. So, yeah, upstart macro index, like that that's the thing that is the moving target for us in our models are calibrating is that is evolving. And so, you know, compared to where we thought in terms of those two lines converging, where we thought we were last quarter, turns it will turn that we're on the lower side of our confidence interval now because the default from the world has continued to rise. And so, it really is a question of, you know, when will that default trans stabilize and as in when it does, you will see those models converge quite quickly. And in fact, the target returns themselves has gone up. I should clarify this is obviously something that blends the returns and the performance of all of our loans, whether they're on the bank channel side or the institutional side. But if you look at the return target from the institutional side, that's really where that the 500 basis point sort of numbers come in. So, yeah, it's a bit it's a bit it's a bit down to how the macro evolves from here and and how conservative we're pricing within models. So, I think we've signals confidence and where we are now and we're pricing ones now, but obviously the world needs to play out a little bit so we can demonstrate that.
维森特，我是桑杰。这实际上是一个非常关键的问题。这是一个价值百万美元的问题。我的意思是，我认为信心和资金的回归以及机构方面的趋同需要二者的融合。在某种程度上，我们正在追逐前一张幻灯片上的趋势，也就是第10张幻灯片。所以，像我们这样的新兴宏观指数就像我们模型中的活动目标，我们正在校准这些因素。与上一季度我们认为这两条线将会趋同的情况相比，结果是我们的置信区间现在处于较低的端点，因为世界的违约率仍在上升。因此，真正的问题是，什么时候这种违约情况会稳定下来，这时，这些模型将会很快趋同。事实上，目标回报率本身已经上升。我应该澄清一下，这显然是将我们所有的贷款回报和绩效融合在一起的事情，无论它们来自银行渠道方面还是机构方面。但是，如果你看看机构的回报目标，这就是500个基点这样的数字。因此，这取决于宏观经济从现在开始的发展以及我们在模型中的定价保守程度。因此，我认为我们已经表明了我们现在的信心并开始进行定价调整了，但是显然需要世界再发生一些变化，这样我们才能展示它。
Okay, understood. Thank you. And then follow up question just on the the costs. I guess when we're thinking about the long term and thinking about some of the investments in new products that you're making versus maybe in the near term where maybe there's not a lot of volume or trying to be conservative on expenses. How do you kind of manage the two? Because it does sound like you're building out the small business portfolio building out auto lending maybe there's some traction going on there, but maybe you could help us understand when do you when would you be the balance between being conservative on the investments or on the expenses versus long term opportunities with these products. Thank you.
好的，我明白了，谢谢。然后我有一个后续问题，关于成本方面。我想当我们考虑长期投资新产品时，与短期内可能没有大量销量或在支出上保守的情况相比，您是如何管理这两者之间的？因为听起来您正在发展小企业组合，发展汽车贷款，可能正在取得一些进展，但您可以帮助我们了解，在这些产品的长期机会方面，什么时候是在投资或支出方面保守与长期机会之间的平衡点。谢谢。
Yeah, this is Dave Vinton the way the way we think about that is we would like to to the extent possible. Continue to invest or even increase investment in the future products because that's obviously what our franchises built on and what will lead to. Significant growth in the future so what we've been able to do is is maintain that growth and actually continue to invest in the products and a lot of that you know we can see internally I've shared some of the metrics with it in terms of actual improvements made to each of the products. But we don't actually benefit from them until really the funding and the economic situation is in a better footing so we're a little bit building toward the future, but I think the good is is we have not cut back on that investment in the future of our products. And when I think we're in a more normalized environment, we will very quickly see the benefit of things you know just by way of example we have the highest ever rate of automated loans 75% of the loans that are platforming to three had no human intervention in them. And that's a record high for us not we're not really benefiting from that as a business until we get to a place where you know loan funding when loan prices aren't so high loan funding is abundant etc. And I think across the board if you look to each of our products they're actually getting better very quickly and the teams are making very good use of this time. So the payback won't be till some point in the future.
嗯，我是戴夫·文顿，我们对此的想法是，我们希望在可能的范围内继续投资或增加未来产品的投资，因为这显然是我们产品基础和未来显著增长的关键所在。所以我们所能做的就是维持这种增长，实际上还在产品上继续投资，我们可以在内部看到一些指标上的实际改进，但是我们真正受益的时候只有在资金和经济状况处于更好的状况时，所以我们正在为未来而建设，但好的是我们没有削减我们对产品未来的投资。当我们处于更正常的环境中时，我们很快就会看到好处，例如说，我们的自动化贷款率创历史新高，三分之二的贷款都没有人工干预。这对我们来说是个好消息，但在贷款资金和价格不那么高的时候，我们才真正能从中受益。我认为如果看看我们的每个产品，它们都在迅速变得更好，团队也在很好地利用这段时间。我们的回报还要等到将来。
Okay that's very helpful thanks for much. We will take our next question from Arvind Remnoni with Piper Sandler. Please go ahead.
好的，非常有帮助，感谢。我们将转到来自Piper Sandler的Arvind Remnoni的下一个问题。请提出您的问题。
意思：这是一个电话会议中的发言，意思是“好的，非常有帮助，谢谢。我们现在会听取Piper Sandler的Arvind Remnoni的问题，请您发言。”
Hi thanks for taking my question. I just had a couple of questions one you know just as you think about the next kind of 12 months you know what are some of the downsides in areas like I mean if the micro gets a lot worse. You know would you expect like kind of further deterioration in your business just given sort of the strong exposure you'll have to the micro.
您好，感谢您回答我的问题。我有几个问题想问问，如果您考虑接下来的12个月，您认为在某些领域会出现哪些不利因素，比如如果微观经济状况恶化，您认为您公司业务会进一步恶化，因为您的业务与微观经济状况关联性很强。
Sure Arvind, well look, no doubt any business looking to the future of the economy there are downsides scenarios for everybody, we're not different than that. I mean we're a fairly simple business in many ways that we have fixed costs and then we have contribution margin to offset those and certainly if macro continued to deteriorate significantly that would probably translate into lower volumes not platform and at some point we would look at our fixed costs and ask whether we can afford that.
当然，Arvind，任何一个关注经济未来的企业都会面临各种不利情景，我们也不例外。我指的是，我们的业务在很多方面都比较简单，我们有固定成本，然后有贡献利润来抵消这些成本。如果宏观经济继续严重恶化，这很可能会导致交易量下降，而且在某个时候，我们会审查我们的固定成本，问问自己我们是否负担得起。
So our our first goal is of course retain you know solvency in the in the sort of solid footing the company is on we have a large cash balance we have relatively low fixed costs and that's really helped us know all through our existence. But so we don't have any fear other than look the thing we want to keep doing in best part when able to do so is investing in the products. Certainly there are scenarios we could imagine that are so bad that we would have to cut back investment or pause products and so on but we don't see that today I think today we we have enough volume and enough contribution margin to keep you know optimistically investing for the future and that's what we would we would hope.
我们的首要目标当然是保持公司的偿付能力和稳定地位，我们拥有大量现金储备和相对较低的固定成本，这些都在我们的历史中帮助我们。但是我们并没有其他的担忧，除了我们希望继续投资于产品。当然，我们可以想象到一些情况非常糟糕，我们不得不削减投资或者暂停产品等等，但是我们今天没有看到那样的情况。我认为我们现在拥有足够的销售量和足够的贡献利润，可以乐观地为未来投资，这就是我们的希望。
Right and you know as you think of your you know kind of I would think of existing cash burn and sort of projected cash burn which I'm sure you're making adjustments you know with you know just some of your expense line when do you think you may need to go go sort of raise. Can additional capital whether in the form of a video debt we don't see any need to do that Arvin and honestly our cash burn today is quite small even in the very constricted position we're in I mean I think our volumes are pretty dramatically lower than they were yet our cash burn is fairly minimal. So we don't see a scenario where we have to raise cash the Sunday so we have over here 800 million in cash as well as loan assets on the balance sheet so that that's just not something we anticipate at this time.
你们可能在考虑现有的现金燃烧和预计的现金燃烧情况，我认为你们会对支出进行一些调整。请问你们认为需要何时再进行资本筹集，无论是利用债务或其他方式？我们并不认为需要这么做，目前我们的现金燃烧量很小，即使在我们现在这种受限制的情况下，我们的现金燃烧量也相当小。我们的销售量比以前大幅下降，但我们的现金燃烧仍然很小。因此，我们目前不认为需要筹集现金。我们可以看到我们在负债表上有8亿美元的现金和贷款资产，目前我们不预计需要进行资本筹集。
And I think we're in some. I'm sure we're going. I was just going to maybe put some quick back of the number of numbers to that our cash sort of fixed expense burn across payroll and up X every month is about 30 million and even a zero origination scenario we're getting a servicing stream of revenue that's about 15 million so there's sort of maybe this sort of 15 million dollar delta every month that we have to rely on contribution margin for. To cover so that that's sort of like on a downside scenario what the gap might be and you know as you saw we've got about 800 million in total cash on the balance sheet so. That can take us for quite some runway.
我认为我们有一些问题。我确信我们在走下坡路。我只是想把我们的现金固定支出(包括工资和...)快速计算一下，每个月是3000万，即使在没有任何资金来源的情况下，我们仍然可以得到大约1500万的收入。所以每个月我们可能需要依靠贡献利润来弥补这1500万的差额。这就是在最糟糕的情况下差距可能是多少，你看我们在资产负债表上有总共8亿的现金。这可以支持我们走很长一段路。
Right right yeah I guess you can be you can be quite quite patient in that case. Yeah that's pretty much the questions ahead.
没错，是的，我猜你在那种情况下可能会相当耐心。是的，这基本上是前面的问题。
Thank you. We will take our next question from David Chavarini with Webbush securities please go ahead.
谢谢您。我们将由Webbush证券的David Chavarini提出下一个问题，请发言。
Hi thanks for taking the question so I'm looking on slide 11 the in period losses versus expectations can you walk through what this is telling us is it is it basically saying that 25% that loss in period defaults are 25% above what you were modeling it and I guess marrying the slide 10 with the UMI at 1.7 should we expect this line on on page 11 to go up toward 70% just could you talk through that a little bit.
你好，谢谢你回答我的问题。我现在看到的是第11页关于期内损失和预期之间的差距，你能详细解释一下它想要告诉我们什么吗？基本上，它是在说期内违约损失比你之前预测的要高25%吗？再结合Slide 10中的UMI为1.7，我们应该预计此页上的数据会上升到70%左右，你能解释一下这些吗？
Yeah David this is Sunday. Sure yeah these are important questions so let me start with slide 11 this is the slide 11. In any given calendar period along the x axis for all of the loans we have outstanding at that time so it's not a cohort of view it's just all you know of all Vintage is that are existing in you know 2 3 of 2022 what were the what were the losses incurred in that period versus what had been modeled at the time of at the time of origination. And so you know that that would say that you know of all the vintage is that were still active or we're outstanding in that quarter that the losses were 25% higher now we see a lot of those same vintage is composed.
嗨，大卫，今天是星期天。当然，这些是重要的问题，让我从第11张幻灯片开始解释。在给定的日历期间，沿着X轴，对于我们在当时仍未偿还的所有贷款，它不是一个群体视角，而是所有现存的贷款。在2022年的前两三个季度，这一时期发生的损失与当初发起借款时所建模的损失相比如何。因此，就所有在该季度仍处于活动状态或未偿还的贷款而言，损失比原先预计的高了25％。我们在许多同样的贷款组合中看到这种情况。
The populations in the prior quarter that were below or on target so so you're correct in that what is causing this in the sense is what you see on slide 10 which is our sort of expression of the macro impact in the environment now the fact that the macro index is at 1.7 doesn't doesn't suggest that they're you know we're 70% higher than what we had modeled I guess the other side of the equation is where are we pricing loans so today we're pricing loans at a 2.0 sort of equivalent macro index so put another way if that macro index stays at 1.7 and we're pricing you loans at a 2.0 they should in fact over perform they should come under losses by you know to the tune of them you know 17% 17% so because we rapidly adjust the model to recalibrate to where the sort of UMI is trending we are sort of able to in a sense price price these trends into into into the loans.
在先前季度中，人口数量低于或达到目标水平，所以在这个意义上，你说的原因就是我们在第10张幻灯片中所看到的宏观环境影响的体现。事实上，宏观指数为1.7并不意味着我们的模型高出70%。另一方面，我们的贷款价格在2.0的等价宏观指数水平上。换句话说，如果宏观指数保持在1.7的水平，而我们的贷款定价达到2.0的水平，实际上它们应该会表现更好，并遭受损失的幅度应该约为17%。因为我们可以快速调整模型，重新校准UIM趋势的变化，所以我们能够在某种程度上将这些趋势和贷款定价结合起来。
So you know to get back to your original question what should we expect that that line to do on slide 11 going forward you know a lot of the existing loans to extent the economy continues to degrade they are already priced and so yeah is the economy degrades and then those losses will increase but then you're also got fresh production of loans being put into the population that are priced at much higher UMI's and so the answer will be similar in the balance of those 2.0.
你知道回到你最初的问题，我们应该对第11张幻灯片上的那条线有什么期望，如果经济继续恶化，很多现有贷款都已经定价，所以随着经济恶化，这些损失会增加，但是同时也会有新的贷款产生，这些贷款的定价要高得多，所以答案将类似于这两种情况的平衡。
Very helpful thanks for that and then my second question relates to promotional activity in the 3rd quarter related to gift cards what was this new and are you able to say how much that contributed to originations in the 3rd quarter and what level should we expect in the in the 4th quarter if that's going to continue.
非常有帮助，感谢您。然后我的第二个问题与第三季度礼品卡的促销活动有关，这是什么新活动？您能否说一下这对第三季度的发起量做出了多少贡献？如果这将继续下去，我们应该在第四季度期望什么水平。
Sure yeah this is Sanjay again so you know I guess taking a step back I think that the way to think about that and I sort of alluded to this in one of the prior questions is in Q3 itself we had sort of gone back and forth between a funding constraint environment and a borrower constraint environment so in a sense that is sort of the you know availability of funding or lack there of is competing with you know the loss trends in the 3rd quarter. In the economy and our ability to approve and so you know that there was some period of time in Q3 where we were actually borrower constraint and we took that decision to sort of run a marketing campaign where we provided some incentives in order to get some of the origination numbers up a little bit I think the overall impact on the numbers is pretty demonetis. It was the minimus within that month and certainly within the entire quarter it wasn't a very big impact but you know it was from the fact.
当然，我是Sanjay，我认为我们需要回过头来思考一下，在第三季度，我们面临了资金约束和借款人约束之间的来回。实际上，这就是资金的可用性或者缺乏，与第三季度的损失趋势和我们批准的能力的竞争。在第三季度的某个时期，我们实际上是借款人约束的，我们做出了决策，推出了一项营销活动，提供了一些激励措施，以使我们的借贷数量有所上升。我认为这些对数字的总体影响非常小，对于该月和整个季度而言都是微不足道的，但这也是出于我们的考虑。
Sorry Sanjay I was going to say I mean what you're seeing there is we are pretty constantly trying to find the lowest cost source of borrowers and in that case I believe it was really insulting people that already on our platform that essentially had no other acquisition cost associated with them but what we're generally doing in all period is trying to you know acquire users at the lowest possible cost and if cards to promote someone who has no other associated cost with them meeting from digital. From digital or from direct mail or from a partnership etc can be a very can be a very good way to do that.
抱歉，Sanjay。我原本想说的是，我们一直在不断寻找成本最低的借款人来源。在那个情况下，我相信我们实际上伤害了已经在我们平台上的人，而且与他们相关的获客成本基本上没有什么其他费用。但总的来说，我们一直在尽可能低的成本获得用户，如果通过宣传对于在数字领域或直接的邮寄或合作等方面没有其他相关成本的人进行宣传，可能是一个非常好的方法来做到这一点。
Very helpful thanks very much. And there are no further questions at this time Mr. Derar I will turn the conference back to you for any additional closing remarks.
非常有帮助，非常感谢。此时不再有其他问题，德拉尔先生，请您回到会议主持人位置，做出任何必要的结束语。
Thanks all thanks for listening we definitely appreciate the spend it's a challenging time particularly for the mission that we're on in the business that we've chosen but we are confident and we're committed to it and pretty neat needs to make sure we make all the right decisions now particularly in terms of credit performance and as well as being sort of physically responsible but we're extremely confident that all the investments we're making today continuing to do we're going to lead us to a much stronger position and will be in a growth mode again soon enough.
感谢大家的倾听和支持，我们非常感激。当前，我们所从事的业务非常具有挑战性，而这也是一个充满挑战的时期。但我们充满信心和决心，一定会做出正确的决策，特别是在信用业绩和财务责任方面。我们非常自信，我们现在所做的所有投资将会使我们更加强大，并将很快进入增长模式。
So thanks all for listening today. This concludes today's call thank you for your participation and you may now disconnect. Thank you.
感谢大家今天聆听。今天的通话到此结束，感谢您的参与，您现在可以断开连接。谢谢。