Markets Weekly September 27, 2025
发布时间 2025-09-27 13:14:24 来源
Hello my friends, today is September 27th and this is markets weekly. Now this past week, the equity markets were kind of boring, you know, not much going on, but I think there was some real action in some quarters of the market in particular, looking at silver, absolutely surging, going parabolic. And we've talked about silver before. It is a very volatile meadow. In the past, we've seen it squeeze higher to $50 in the 1980s when the Hunts brothers were trying to corner the market. And of course, in the post GFC era, also had a huge surge, $50, it looks like we're going to try to hit that again. And before they was crypto, silver was basically the, I guess the asset that received a ton of speculative flows and retail interest. So that was pretty interesting and gold, of course, doing very well as well.
你好，朋友们，今天是9月27日，这是本周的市场回顾。过去一周，股票市场相对平淡，没有太多波动。但是，我认为某些市场领域确实出现了一些明显的动向，尤其是银价，绝对是大幅上涨，呈现抛物线式的走势。我们之前谈到过白银，它是一种非常波动的金属。在过去，我们看到在20世纪80年代猎户兄弟试图垄断市场时，白银价格曾飙升至每盎司50美元。当然，在全球金融危机后的时代，白银也经历了一次巨大上涨，达到了50美元。看起来我们可能再次逼近这个价位。还没有加密货币的时候，白银基本上是受到了大量投机流入和散户关注的资产。所以这个情况相当有趣，黄金当然也是表现得非常好。
Now, what kind of caught my eye the past week and actually the past couple weeks is crypto, it doesn't seem to be trading very well. Now some people think about crypto as, you know, levered NASDAQ. Some people think of it as digital gold, but you know, it's, it's kind of doing much worse than gold and the NASDAQ. And I'm not sure what's going on there, but it doesn't look good. So today, let's talk about three things because we do have some interesting developments that's we first off. Let's talk about this new, I guess, line of thinking in the Fed where we have kind of a more coherent arguments from the Trump appointees, why the Fed should be cutting rates.
最近几周，有件事引起了我的注意，那就是加密货币的表现似乎不太好。有人把加密货币视为一种加杠杆的纳斯达克指数，也有人认为它是数字黄金。但是，它的表现似乎比黄金和纳斯达克差得多。我不太确定这是怎么回事，但情况看起来不太乐观。今天，我们来讨论三件事，因为有一些有趣的新发展。首先，让我们谈谈美联储的一种新思路，尤其是由特朗普任命的官员，他们对美联储应当降息提出了更为连贯的理由。
And secondly, something else that happened the past week was, see, many, the treasuries are going to throw a lifeline to help save Argentina. Seems like it's going to be some extension of the monoductrin as, as the president seems to be viewing the world in that way. And lastly, let's talk about some new developments in the ongoing AI bubble because I do believe it is a bubble. Okay, starting with the Fed. So this past week, we got the first speech from newly minted governor, Myron, and also a couple of speeches from governor Bowman, no, Myron and Bowman, along with Governor Waller, our Trump appointees, and they have been pretty vocal for lower rates in, in the past few months.
过去一周的另一件事情是，财政部将向阿根廷抛出救生索，似乎会以某种形式延续单一导向政策，因为总统似乎以这种方式看待世界。最后，我们来谈谈正在发展的AI泡沫的一些新动态，因为我确实认为它是一个泡沫。我们从美联储开始说起。本周，刚上任的美联储理事迈伦发表了他的首次演讲，同时理事鲍曼以及由特朗普任命的理事沃勒也发表了几次演讲。他们在过去几个月里一直非常明确地支持降低利率。
So when you think about monetary policy, there's actually a lot of ways you can think about it. Again, you got the employment mandate, you got inflation mandate, but you also have how restrictive the Fed is currently, and you also have basically how the Fed should approach the process of looking at the economy. So we have some interesting developments, both from Myron and Bowman, and what they're trying to argue right now is a shift away from data dependence in towards more forward looking views, basically a shift back to model dependency.
当你考虑货币政策时，其实有很多种方式可以思考。首先，有就业任务和通胀任务，但你也要考虑美联储当前的限制性程度，以及美联储应该如何看待经济的过程。目前有一些有趣的发展，Myron和Bowman提出，他们现在试图推动从依赖数据向更多前瞻性观点转变，基本上是回到依赖模型的方法。
Now, if you recall a few years ago, the Fed usually is looking at the world with a forward looking stance, right? They have models to think, but you know, I'm doing this monetary policy acts with the lag, so how is the economy going to be affected? So that's how the Fed used to operate. But in 2021 and 2022, based on that framework, the Fed was telling everyone, relax, inflation is transitory, we don't need to hike rates. That turned out to be a total disaster. So from that point on, the Fed shifted to something, but they'd say data dependency. Basically, I have no idea what the future is going to be like, so I'm just going to look at the data as it comes in.
现在，如果你回想几年前，美联储通常以前瞻性的眼光看待世界，对吧？他们有模型来思考问题，比如说，我正在执行的货币政策是有滞后效应的，那么经济将会受到怎样的影响？这就是美联储过去的运作方式。但在2021年和2022年，根据这一框架，美联储告诉所有人，放轻松，通胀是暂时的，我们不需要加息。结果这成为了一个彻底的灾难。所以从那时起，美联储转变为他们所说的“依赖数据”的方法。基本上就是，我不知道未来会怎样，所以我只会根据接收的数据来判断。
But of course, if you're looking at the data that comes in, you are basically looking in the past, you're driving looking at the rear view mirror. Now earlier this year, Ture Paul was giving speech, and he said that we have a lot of things happening in the economy. President Trump is doing all sorts of changes with regulatory policy, fiscal policy, immigration policy, trade policy, and so forth. And I just don't know what's going to happen. So I'm just going to stay and be data dependent in a sense, committing himself to being late.
当然，如果你查看所获得的数据，你实际上是在回顾过去，就像开车时只看后视镜。今年年初，Ture Paul发表演讲时提到，我们的经济中发生了许多事情。特朗普总统在监管政策、财政政策、移民政策、贸易政策等方面进行各种调整。我真的不知道会发生什么，所以我决定依赖数据再做决定，这实际上就是承认自己会有所延迟。
So that was what he was thinking. Now, what now, Governor Mayeron and Governor Bowman are saying is something different. They're like, and Governor Bowman actually says this directly. If you're too dependent, we're going to be looking at the back rear view mirror. We're going to be too late. So let's look forward to seeing how the world is going to evolve. And so based on this, they're going to be looking at what's happening with the policy changes the president has, and they're saying that maybe we should be cutting rates.
所以，这就是他的想法。现在，Mayeron州长和Bowman州长说的是不同的，他们的看法不一样。Bowman州长直接表示，如果我们过于依赖（过去的数据或经验），就像是在看后视镜，我们就会错过最佳时机。所以，他们主张应该面向未来，看看世界将如何演变。基于这一点，他们正在关注总统的政策变化，并表示可能应该考虑降息。
Now first, from Governor Mayeron's perspective, he doesn't actually talk too much about so far, at least, about labor, inflation, and so forth. His focus really is what's called our star, the neutral rate. So his argument that he's making is that the neutral rate is actually pretty low. And because it's pretty low, rates where they currently are are super, super restrictive. So we got to get rates lower. That's why he voted for three 50 base point cuts this year. So this is kind of an angle that you don't see that many officials take because the neutral rate, basically the rate, so in central bank speak, if interest rates are above the neutral rate, you're being restrictive, slowing the economy down, if interest rates are below the neutral rate, you're being accommodative.
首先，从州长梅耶龙（Mayeron）的角度来看，他目前为止其实并没有过多谈论劳动力、通货膨胀等问题。他真正关注的是所谓的自然利率（也称中性利率）。他的观点是自然利率实际上非常低。由于自然利率很低，目前的利率水平显得极其具有抑制性。因此，我们需要降低利率。这就是为什么他今年投票赞成降息三次，每次50个基点。这种观点并不是很多官员会采纳，因为在中央银行的术语中，如果利率高于自然利率，那就是具有抑制性的，会让经济放缓；如果利率低于自然利率，那就是具有刺激性的，会推动经济增长。
And people don't talk too much about the neutral rate because it's notoriously big, being that no one really knows where it is. And so Chirpau would say we wouldn't know it by its works. Again, just looking at the economy, don't want to have too much of a theoretical model. Now what Mayeron is saying, though, is that if you look at the policy changes that Trump has done, it's very clear the neutral rate is coming down. And he makes a few, I think pretty good points. One of course is immigration. Now one of the reasons why we've had high inflation over the past few years is that we've had tremendous, tremendous population growth. So under Biden, there has tremendous amounts of illegal immigration.
人们不太谈论中性利率，因为它通常被认为是一个很大的未知数，没有人真正知道它具体是多少。所以Chirpau会说，我们无法通过它的作用来了解它。再说一遍，只看经济，不想依赖过多的理论模型。然而，Mayeron指出，如果你看看特朗普所做的政策变化，很明显中性利率在下降。他提出了一些不错的观点，其中之一当然是移民。过去几年我们经历了高通胀的一个原因是人口的快速增长。在拜登的领导下，非法移民的数量非常庞大。
No one knows how many millions of people came in. But public sources say maybe two or three million people more than we did usually. Now a lot of people coming in millions at a time. Obviously we're not building houses as easily as quickly, right? So that puts upward pressure on sheltered inflation. And this is something people see all throughout the world in Canada, in the UK, in Australia. They have tremendous amounts of immigration. And Brent's just keep going higher and higher because they don't really build a lot of housing. Everyone has all these regulations that limit that.
没有人确切知道有多少百万人涌入。但有公开的消息称，比往常可能多了两三百万人进来。现在很多人以百万计涌入。显然，我们无法快速轻松地建造足够的房屋，对吧？这就对住房通胀造成了上升压力。这种情况在全球都能看到，比如加拿大、英国和澳大利亚，这些地方都有大量的移民，而房价也不断攀升，因为他们实际上并没有建造足够的住房。各地都存在许多限制建房的法规。
And yet you have people who need to live somewhere. And that pushed up Brent a lot. But now that that's over and maybe we have some deportations, shelter inflation is going to come down, right? So maybe that means that we don't have to be as restrictive as it used to. And Mayeron also makes a couple other interesting points. So if you have the regulation and again, everyone can agree that President Trump is reducing regulations that essentially decreases the cost of businesses. And so if you decrease the cost of businesses, you know, maybe you have a higher productive capacity, increasing supply again, that puts down one pressure on the nutrient.
虽然如此，人们总是需要居住的地方。这导致布伦特上涨了很多。不过，现在这种情况已经结束，可能还会有一些驱逐出境的情况，住房方面的通货膨胀应该会下降，对吧？所以这可能意味着我们不需要像以前那样严格。Mayeron 还提到了一些其他有趣的观点。比如说，如果有相关法规，大家普遍认为特朗普总统是在减少相关法规，这实际上降低了企业的成本。而当企业成本降低时，可能就会有更高的生产能力，供应增加，这又会对需求造成一定的下行压力。
And the last thing that he suggests is that because we're collecting tariffs, maybe the deficit will be better lower in the future. And you have to lower deficit. The government is not competing as much as resources. Maybe that means we can have a lower nutrient as well. So he makes these R star arguments. Now again, these are pretty vague and I don't know if anyone takes them literally. He does have a table decomposing it. But I think it is useful to look at these big policy changes that Trump is doing. Again, these are huge changes and try to at least think about how they can affect the economy rather than just being the other dependent.
最后，他建议说，因为我们在征收关税，或许未来赤字会更低。我们需要降低赤字，这样政府对资源的竞争就没那么激烈了。也许这意味着我们可以有更低的营养需求。他提到了这些 R 星论点。不过，这些论点相对模糊，我不确定是否真的有人完全相信。他确实提供了一个表格来解构这些内容。但我认为重要的是，我们应该关注特朗普正在进行的这些重大政策变革。再次强调，这些是巨大的变革，我们应该至少考虑它们如何影响经济，而不是仅仅依赖于其他因素。
Because you are driving in the rear view mirror. Now Governor Bowman this past week also made similar arguments for low interest rates. And she sent a little bit panicky actually. She doesn't talk about the neutral rate at all. She's not a PhD economist and to be clear, neutral rate stuff is not super useful in real life. But she seems to pay a lot of attention to the labor market. And she's selling the alarm. The labor market really does seem to be cracking. And she really wants to get ahead of it. But in addition to that, again, if you follow Bowman for the past few years, you know that she is actually by nature a very hawkish person.
因为你是在后视镜中驾驶。上周，州长鲍曼也提出了类似的低利率主张。她的语气有些惊慌。她完全没有谈到中性利率。需要澄清的是，中性利率在现实生活中并不是特别有用。但她似乎非常关注劳动力市场。她在发出警报。劳动力市场似乎真的出现了问题。而她非常希望能够提前应对。此外，如果你过去几年一直关注鲍曼，你会知道她本质上是一个相当鹰派的人。
She's turned delves on rates. But when it comes to the other stuff, she's still quite hawkish. So she also wants to sell mortgage back securities, maybe shrink the feds balance sheet, maybe reduce some of these emergency facilities like the standing repo facility and so forth. So her views are basically things that would leave to a curve steepening. There were front end rates and higher longer the upgrades. So again, these are interesting developments mostly from my perspective, the focus on being more forward looking. And I'm not sure if anyone else is going to come along to that perspective, but it does make sense when you're having so many big policy changes.
她在利率方面已经转向鸽派。但在其他方面，她仍然相当鹰派。因此，她也希望出售抵押贷款支持证券，可能还希望缩减美联储的资产负债表，甚至减少一些紧急设施，比如常设回购协议设施等。她的观点基本上是导致收益率曲线变陡的事情。前端利率和较长时间的利率上升。因此，从我的角度来看，这些都是有趣的发展，重点在于更加前瞻性的思考。我不确定是否会有其他人也持这种观点，但在面临如此多重大政策变化时，这样的观点是有道理的。
All right. The second thing that I want to talk about is of course the Treasury's lifeline to Argentina. So President Milay and Argentina has really done revolutionary work. And Argentina has been a country that is mismanaged for some time. If you go back 100 years, Argentina was one of the wealthiest countries in the entire world. There's a saying that you can be as wealthy as an Argentinian. However, things have not been going well. They have huge inflation and economic growth has not been doing well. So Milay really did something heroic. He massively, massively slashed government spending. Argentina actually has a fiscal surplus now. And that seems to have brought inflation down at least for Argentinian standards. It's much, much lower than before. And a lot of people were feeling a bit more positive on this turn, Argentina.
好的。第二件我想要谈论的事情就是财政部对阿根廷的援助。米莱总统和阿根廷确实做出了革命性的工作。阿根廷是一个长期以来管理不善的国家。回顾100年前，阿根廷曾是世界上最富有的国家之一，人们常说你可以像阿根廷人一样富有。然而，事情发展的并不好，他们的通货膨胀严重，经济增长也不理想。所以，米莱做了一件非常了不起的事情，他大幅削减了政府开支。现在，阿根廷实际上有财政盈余，这似乎至少在阿根廷的标准下让通胀降低了很多，比以前低得多。这一转变让很多人对阿根廷的前景更加乐观。
However, recently Milay's parties seem to have not done very well in a local election. And that suggests that maybe appetite for reform in Argentina is waning. Now, if the Milay revolution is just something that's going to end very quickly, then investors are thinking that maybe they'll go back to huge deficit spending and maybe things will go back to the way it was. And so they got to pull money out. And so you had a huge run on the currency. And of course, the bond youths began to spike. Obviously, doing lots of austerities is unpopular. So this is totally, I think, predictable thing that would happen.
然而，最近米莱的政党在一场地方选举中表现不佳。这表明，阿根廷对改革的热情可能在减退。如果米莱的革命很快就结束了，那么投资者可能会认为国家会重新回到巨额赤字开支的老路上，事情会回到原来的样子。因此，他们开始撤资，导致货币大幅贬值，债券收益率飙升。当然，实行大量的紧缩措施并不受欢迎。所以，我认为这种情况完全在预料之中。
However, thankfully, President Milay has built a pretty good relationships in Washington. I mean, if you watch TV, you'll see him over the past few months, every now and then popping up into events that are supportive of Republican Party. And so I'm hanging out with Elon a bit. So, and you know, it's actually a really, really long flight from Argentina to the US. So he's definitely been cultivating this relationship in today. It seems to pay off. Now, Argentina had already borrowed about 20 billion from the IMF. They probably have trouble repaying that and trying to support their currency and all that. It's been spending their farm reserves.
然而，值得庆幸的是，米莱总统在华盛顿建立了相当不错的关系。我的意思是，如果你看电视，你会发现过去几个月他经常出现在支持共和党的活动中。而且，他也时不时跟埃隆·马斯克在一起。所以，从阿根廷到美国的航班真的很漫长，他显然一直在努力培养这些关系。如今，这些努力似乎开始见效了。阿根廷已经从国际货币基金组织借了大约200亿美元，他们可能在偿还这些贷款和支持本国货币方面遇到了困难，并且花费了他们的外汇储备。
About the past week, Secretary Besson also suggested that the United States is going to step in and give Argentina maybe a swap line, some kind of currency swap and maybe even outright buy our $continient bonds. Now, this is an interesting thing because it seems like the swap agreement is not going to come from the Fed, but it's going to come from the Treasury. The Treasury itself has what you could think of as a really they've found a code like ESFR exchange, stabilization fund, something like that. It's something that actually they accumulated in the past beginning when during the gold standard, they try to manage the currency.
关于上周，贝森秘书建议美国可能会介入，为阿根廷提供某种货币互换，也许是交换额度，甚至可能直接购买我们大陆的债券。这很有趣，因为看起来这次的互换协议并不是来自美联储，而是由财政部负责。财政部本身拥有一个可以看作是类似的东西，即ESFR交换和稳定基金或类似的名字。这是他们在过去积累的一个工具，起初是在金本位时期，他们试图管理货币的时候开始使用的。
But more recently in the past decades, it was actually used to try to weaken the dollar. So sell dollars and buy foreign currency when the dollar was too strong. So that the ESFR has basically been ESFR has basically been kind of dormant for some time. At the moment, when I look at it, it has about 20 billion in Treasury, so 20 billion dollars that could be used to at the Treasury's discretion to try to do whatever they want with it. And it looks like they're going to use that to kind of shore up the Argentinian peso. Now technically speaking, I'm guessing that they could have forced the Fed to do something like that as well.
最近几十年，它实际上被用来尝试削弱美元。当美元过于强势时，就卖出美元并购买外国货币。因此，ESFR 基本上已经沉寂了一段时间。目前，我查看它时，发现大约有200亿美元的国库，可以由财政部自由支配来使用，为实现其目的。而现在，他们似乎打算利用这些资金来支持阿根廷比索。理论上，我猜他们也可以迫使美联储采取类似的行动。
The Fed has independence when it comes to interest rate policy, so monetary policy. But it doesn't have independence when it comes to regulatory policy. And when you have these international diplomatic things like this, when there's a geopolitical strategic thing, I'm guessing they probably could have maybe had the Fed give them a line. Although of course, it would be a huge departure to Fed behavior. But at the moment, they're structuring this just using money that they have full control over and to give to Argentina.
美联储在利率政策方面具有独立性，也就是货币政策。但在监管政策方面则不具备独立性。当遇到这种国际外交事务或地缘政治战略问题时，我猜他们可能会让美联储提供一些帮助。当然，这将是对美联储惯常行为的重大偏离。但目前，他们只是利用自己可以完全控制的资金来为阿根廷提供支持。
I think, so broadly speaking, this seems to further present Trump's view of what happens in the Americas is strictly within the United States' geosstrategical region, and they're trying to store more support. Now, Argentina actually also has a swap line with China as well. That has been made present, Trump unhappy, and they don't want to have other countries come in and try to buy influence by being there as a last resort. China obviously has tremendous amounts of resources they could lend to Argentina. So it seems like the United States is trying to move in, short and ally, and cement their influence in this Western atmosphere.
我认为，总的来说，这似乎进一步展示了特朗普的观点，即美洲发生的事情严格属于美国的地缘战略区域，他们正试图获得更多的支持。现在，阿根廷实际上也与中国有货币互换协议。特朗普对此感到不满，他们不希望其他国家通过在那里的最后手段来购买影响力。中国显然有大量资源可以借给阿根廷。因此，美国似乎正试图介入，加强盟友关系，并巩固他们在西半球的影响力。
You can also see President Trump acting similarly when it comes to Brazil, being very mean to President Lula, who was very mean to President Bolsonaro, who was President's friend, and also sending ships over to Venezuela kind of hanging out and it's kind of bombing ships that survive that seem to have drugs in them. So it seems like this is kind of a broader geostrategic push to cement power within the Americas. That's a kind of interesting development.
你也可以看到特朗普总统在对待巴西的问题上采取了类似的行动。他对卢拉总统非常不客气，因为卢拉对博索纳罗总统也很不客气，而博索纳罗是特朗普的朋友。此外，特朗普还派遣军舰到委内瑞拉附近巡逻，打击那些看起来载有毒品的船只。这似乎是一种更广泛的地缘战略行动，旨在巩固美洲地区的影响力。这是一项相当有趣的发展。
The last thing that I want to talk about is of course the ongoing AI bubble. We've talked about how basically all these companies are spending hundreds of billions of dollars to build out AI infrastructure, and that means building plants, spending a lot of money on ships and so forth. And at the end of the day, these AI so far, it isn't really profitable. There's a study suggesting that companies are trying to use them, trying to make a return, but just not being very successful at it.
我最后想谈的当然是正在发生的AI泡沫。我们之前讨论过，这些公司基本都在花费数千亿美元来建设AI基础设施，这意味着要建造工厂，在芯片上花很多钱等等。然而，到目前为止，这些AI并没有真正实现盈利。有研究表明，公司在尝试使用这些技术以期获得回报，但并不太成功。
An open AI, the star of the world has been doing interesting things, working with broad comps, developing new chips, promising Oracle that they will buy tens of billions of dollars worth of computing capacity. Then in all in the software, it has loved all this stuff. But ultimately the question was, where is open AI going to get all this money? Right now they make revenues of about 13 billion a year and that's not enough to cover the costs so they lose money.
开放AI，这个全球的明星一直在做有趣的事情，与广泛的公司合作，开发新芯片，并承诺向Oracle购买数百亿美元的计算能力。在软件方面，他们非常热衷于这些。但最后的问题是，开放AI将从哪里获得这些资金？目前，他们每年的收入约为130亿美元，但这还不足以覆盖成本，所以他们在亏损。
For the 9.7s hyperscalers like Microsoft, Facebook, they've been financing their expansion through their capsules. They're still very successful companies making a lot of money, but they've been pulling that money into these GPUs that have high depreciation rates and don't seem to be at the minimum at least being very profitable. Actually, there's a store in the Wall Street Journal the past week where they suggest that the revenue gap to pay back all these air investments is in the several hundred billion category and there's really no indication that's going to be met.
对于像微软、Facebook这样的9.7秒级超级巨头来说，他们一直通过其项目来资助扩展。虽然这些公司仍然非常成功，赚了很多钱，但他们将这些资金投入到了高折旧率的GPU中，而这些似乎至少目前来看并不是特别赚钱。实际上，上周的《华尔街日报》有一篇报道指出，要弥补这些巨额投资的收入缺口可能要达到数千亿美元，而且目前没有迹象表明这个目标会实现。
Now, we figured out the past week with NVIDIA's 100 billion investment into open AI where the money's going to come from. This idea is basically round repeating is something we also saw during the .com boom. You had all these big fiber companies laying down fiber networks throughout the world, thinking that the internet would change the world. You got to lay down fiber and eventually you're going to have a return on all these investments.
最近，我们了解到，NVIDIA向开放人工智能（Open AI）投资1000亿的资金来源。在某种程度上，这种观点与我们在互联网泡沫期间看到的情况相似。当时，许多大型光纤公司在全球铺设光纤网络，认为互联网会改变世界。他们相信，只要铺设好光纤，最终就能收回所有这些投资。
What they realized was that laying down all this fiber, the demand actually wasn't there and so they weren't really making money. What they ended up doing was actually buying each other's capacity. Fiber company would buy capacity from another and in exchange they would sell their own capacity to the other company. So at the end of the day, there was no cash exchange but then they would report in their earnings that they had tremendous amounts of revenue even though they was basically fictional.
他们意识到，虽然铺设了大量光纤，但实际上需求并不高，所以他们并没有真正赚到钱。最终，他们采取的做法是互相购买对方的网络容量。一家光纤公司会从另一家公司购买容量，并以此交换出售自己的容量给对方。因此，最后并没有真实的现金交易，但他们在财报中却报告称有大量收入，尽管这些收入基本上是虚构的。
They're trying to, one company is buying stuff from another company and also selling their own products to the other company. This reminds me of that because at the end of the day, Nvidia is giving 100 billion, equity investment of 100 billion into open AI and open AI is then in turn buying ships from Nvidia. It seems kind of somewhat shady but the market did love it and things like this can go on much longer than anyone expects.
他们正在尝试这样做：一家公司从另一家公司购买产品，同时也把自己的产品卖给对方。这让我想起了最终Nvidia向Open AI进行了1000亿的股权投资，而Open AI又反过来从Nvidia购买芯片的事情。这看起来有点不太透明，但市场对此非常欢迎，而且这样的事情往往会比任何人预期的持续更久。
Again, when you're in a bubble, things go on, go double or triple but one day and you never know when they could also come crashing down. So continue to think that it is an interesting time and also a risky time. Alright, so that's all prepared. Thanks so much for tuning in. Talk to you guys next week.
再说一次，当你身处泡沫中，事情会继续发展，可能会翻倍甚至三倍增长，但你永远不知道哪天它们可能会突然崩溃。所以要始终记住这是一个充满趣味的时代，也是一个充满风险的时代。好了，今天就准备到这里。非常感谢你的收听。下周再和大家聊。