Markets Weekly September 13, 2025

Hello my friends, today is September 13th and this is markets weekly. This past week was almost that perfect weekend markets we basically saw the major stock indexes go up almost every single day with the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ making new all-time highs. Looking at other markets, gold of course, shining, making new all-time highs, silver did pretty well as well. But really the star of the week has to go to Oracle which is a large stock but basically went up 40% a day after its earnings release trading like a penny stock and why was it up so much? It basically told everyone that you know we have all these bookings that are that suggests that our revenue is going to go to the moon in the coming years and apparently the market like that.

你好，我的朋友们，今天是9月13日，这是《市场周刊》。刚刚过去的这一周几乎是完美的市场周末，因为我们看到几乎每天主要股票指数都在上涨，标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克指数都创下了历史新高。看看其他市场，黄金当然表现出色，创下了历史新高，而白银也表现得不错。不过，本周的明星无疑是甲骨文公司，它是一只大盘股，在公布财报后的第二天股价大涨了40%，表现得像一只小盘股。为什么会涨这么多呢？基本上，它向大家宣布它有大量的预定合同，这预示着其未来几年的收入将达到一个很高的水平，显然市场对此很满意。

It seems that stories afterwards review out that open AI was the company that contract with them so you know maybe open AI is going to give them a lot of business. Earlier of course we also know that open AI signed a deal with Broadcom to make chips made Broadcom's stock go to the moon but we also must keep in mind that open AI has about 12 billion in revenue and that is less than their cost so open AI does not make any money so those are a lot of big checks that they have written in the future that they will have to grow into and whether or not they will do that we will find out in the coming years.

故事后来透露，OpenAI 是与他们签约的公司，所以也许 OpenAI 会为他们带来大量业务。我们也知道，之前 OpenAI 已与博通签署了一项协议，以制造芯片，这使博通的股票大涨。但我们必须记住，OpenAI 的收入约为 120 亿美元，这还低于他们的成本，因此 OpenAI 并没有盈利。这意味着他们在未来写了许多大额支票，而他们能否实现这些增长，我们将在未来几年中见分晓。

In any case today let's talk about two things. First off we have to talk about the huge data that we got the past week when it comes to inflation and a little bit when it comes to the jobs because that those data points move the market and secondly let's talk a little bit about the latest happenings in the euro dare I say sovereign debt crises. All right starting with the data so as we all know this past week was an inflation data week we got PPI we got CPI and both of those were actually kind of surprising so first off starting with PPI remember last month PPI totally totally surprised the upside much much higher than expected and before anyone embarrasses themselves please remember PPI does not include imports so it does not reflect tariffs.

好的，今天我们来谈论两件事情。首先，我们必须讨论上周我们获得的大量数据，特别是关于通货膨胀的数据，还有一些关于就业的数据，因为这些数据会影响市场。其次，我们来谈谈最近在欧元区发生的所谓主权债务危机。好的，先从数据开始。众所周知，上周是通货膨胀数据的一周，我们获得了生产者价格指数（PPI）和消费者价格指数（CPI），这两个数据都很让人意外。首先说说PPI，上个月的PPI出人意料地大幅上涨，远高于预期。在有人感到尴尬之前，请记住，PPI不包括进口，所以它不反映关税因素。

However this week PPI was actually surprisingly cold it was in some metrics negative so another way to look at this if you average this month's PPI with last months you get something cannot just kind of more normal but PPI usually very boring what people really care about is CPI and CPI was also a bit surprising it actually printed a little bit hotter than expected. Now to be fairly honest I'm actually kind of bored about looking at these inflation prints because if you zoom out a bit it's pretty clear that inflation is basically you know about 3% according to CPI and it has been for many months before the pandemic we were at 2% sometimes a bit below sometimes maybe a little bit higher but now that's really moved up to 3% and it really hasn't gone anywhere.

然而，本周的PPI意外地偏低，根据某些指标甚至是负值。所以另一种看待这种情况的方法是，如果将本月的PPI与上个月的平均值进行比较，就会发现一些正常波动。然而，PPI通常非常枯燥，人们真正关心的是CPI，而CPI的结果也有些出人意料，实际上比预期的要高一点。坦白说，我其实有点厌倦关注这些通胀数据，因为如果从更长远的角度来看，根据CPI数据通胀率基本上是3%左右，而且已经持续了很多个月。在疫情之前我们的通胀率是2%，有时甚至更低或稍高一点，但现在已经升到了3%，并且没有什么显著变化。

Looking at the details at the CPI report you can see that there have been some you know notable jumps and say food up notably shelves are a little bit higher but really I think that misses the point. You know every CPI report we look at you know some higher than expected some lower than expected but the bigger picture is we're basically at 3% and don't seem to be going now many commentators also noted that you know the the tariff pass-throughs don't really seem to be very strong in fact I have Bloomberg economist Anna Wong suggests that you know maybe the most intense part of the pass-through maybe it's already occurred and maybe in some cases companies are seeing that demand isn't really there and so they're choosing to eat the costs by having lower profit margins.

看一下CPI报告的细节，你会发现有一些显著的增长，比如食品价格明显上涨，货架上的价格确实有些高。但是，我认为这并不是重点。我们每次看CPI报告时，有些高于预期，有些低于预期，但整体来看我们基本上维持在3%左右，并没有太大变化。很多评论员也指出，关税的传递效应似乎并不强烈。事实上，彭博社的经济学家安娜·黄（Anna Wong）认为，关税影响最强烈的部分可能已经过去，在某些情况下，公司发现需求并不高，于是选择通过降低利润率来吸收成本。

Now zoom in on a month over a month of basis it was higher than the past three months so there could potentially be some mild acceleration but again it's only one month again as we've always talked about what the Fed what the market really cares about is not PPI not CPI but PCE because that's what the Fed cares about now you know PPI CPI different components feeding the PCE and everyone has their little different estimates now according to the Cleveland Fed it looks like PCE this month is going to be on a year over your basis 2.99 so basically 3% and also basically where it's been for several months again it's the same story inflation seems to have stabilized at around 3% and there's no clear path to get it down.

现在我们放大来看一个月的数据，本月的数据比过去三个月都要高一些，可能会有轻微的加速趋势。但需要注意的是，这只是一个月的数据。正如我们反复提到的，美联储和市场真正关心的不是生产者价格指数（PPI）或消费者价格指数（CPI），而是个人消费支出价格指数（PCE），因为这是美联储关心的指标。PPI和CPI中的不同成分都会影响PCE，每个人对这些指标的预测都会稍有不同。根据克利夫兰联储的数据，本月PCE的同比增速预计为2.99%，基本上是3%，这也是它在过去几个月维持的水平。通胀似乎已经稳定在大约3%的水平，短期内没有明确的方法将其进一步降低。

However even though it seems like inflation was you know not great news but the markets actually had pretty strong reaction you can see that the 10 year yield went all the way down it basically touched 4% but that wasn't really because of inflation it out it was because of the jobs data at the same time CPI was released we also had initial jobless claims which everyone has been watching closely to see whether or not the labor market will continue to weaken now to the surprise of many the initial jobless claims surged surged by a lot and that really caught the markets eye what we've seen in the past few years well actually. for many years is that the labor market tends to move in a non-linear way so when it starts the crack it cracks very quickly so was this that signal digging into the data a little bit it seems like the jobless claims are mostly centered in Texas so it could be just some kind of idiosyncratic data issue so it doesn't seem like something to worry about too much continuing claims also you know didn't really seem to jump around where it's been over the past few weeks few months so you know all in all the market seizing upon the weakness in the labor market and just kind of inflation that's not at least not accelerating too much and pricing and more rate cuts and it seems like the equity market and other markets are responding to this as well did see a little bit of dollar weakness and of course the precious metals surged.

虽然看起来通货膨胀不是个好消息，但市场实际上出现了强烈的反应。你可以看到10年期国债收益率一路下跌，基本上碰到了4%。但这并不完全是因为通胀，而是因为同时发布的就业数据。当消费者价格指数（CPI）发布时，我们也得到了初次申请失业救济人数的数据，大家都在密切关注这些数据，以判断劳动力市场是否会继续疲软。令人惊讶的是，初次申请失业救济的人数大幅增加，这一下子引起了市场的注意。 过去几年，或者更准确地说，很多年来，我们看到劳动力市场通常会以非线性的方式变化，所以一旦开始出现问题，就会迅速恶化。那么，这是否是一个信号呢？深入研究数据后发现，失业救济申请的增加大多集中在德克萨斯州，因此这可能只是一些个别的数据问题，不必过于担心。继续申请失业救济的人数并没有大幅波动，仍在过去几周和几个月的范围内。 总的来说，市场正抓住劳动力市场疲软的机会，加上通胀至少没有明显加速，从而在市场中推测未来可能降息的可能性。另外，股票市场和其他市场也对此作出反应，美元有些走弱，而贵金属则有所上涨。

Now heading into next week the market is pretty convinced that we're going to get 25 basis point cut there are whispers by people in the markets about a 50 basis point cut i don't think that's going to happen i think probably newly sworn in governor myron is probably going to descent in both the 50 but my guess it's just him so but i think going forward looking beyond my my my my senses the market is getting too aggressive with its rate cuts and what i'm going to write about this week is why i think it we could have what's perceived to be a bit more of a hawker surprise so we'll find out next week and of course i will be back to give you my thoughts on the f o m c and the last thing i want to talk about is of course the ongoing saga in europe as we all know france was finally downgraded by the ratings agencies on friday from double a to single a but of course that will not be market moving because the market already priced that in long ago if you look at frinch oats trading the spread to german buns it's been steadily whining the ratings agencies are always slow and they're merely market with the market already knows so at the moment it it looks like beings are are going to you know probably not get better.

下周市场普遍认为将会有25个基点的降息，有一些市场人士私下谈论可能会降息50个基点，但我不认为这会发生。我猜新就任的行长Myron可能会反对50个基点的降息，但这可能只是他个人的看法。不过，我认为未来来看，市场在降息方面可能太激进了。本周我要写的文章是关于为什么我认为我们可能会遇到一个更为鹰派的意外。我们将在下周找到答案，当然我会回来分享我对FOMC的看法。 最后，我想谈谈欧洲的持续局势。正如我们所知，评级机构在周五终于将法国的评级从双A降到单A，但这不会对市场产生影响，因为市场早已将其消化。如果你观察法国国债与德国国债的利差，会发现评级机构总是反应迟缓，只是重复市场早已知道的信息。目前看来，局势可能不会好转。

So as we all know prime minister france quits because he cannot get his agenda through and now they're going to have to figure out a path forward now a couple common paths one of course is that mccron can call for a new election in a legislator hopefully whoever wins will have a you know a bigger share of a legislator so they could put together a plan but of course he did that last year and it did not work out and of course what the opposition parties hope is that mccron will quit but of course mccron is not going to quit so we're going to have this in pass and we'll find figured out how how they finally struggle through but i think the bigger point is that there's just no political will to do the difficult fiscal reforms that would lead france into a more sustainable budget trajectory and it's not just france this is basically true in all in all actually rich countries right in in the u.s you want to have reform of social security basically impossible in the uk also very difficult as well.

众所周知，法国总理辞职是因为无法推进他的议程，现在必须设法找到前进的道路。有几个常见的方向，其中之一当然是马克龙可以要求议会重新选举，希望赢家能在议会中占据更多席位，以便制定计划。但去年马克龙这么做过，结果并不理想。当然，反对党希望马克龙辞职，但显然马克龙不会辞职，所以我们将面临僵局，需要找到解决办法。我认为更重要的是，缺乏进行艰难财政改革的政治意愿，这些改革有助于法国走上更可持续的预算轨道。这种情况不仅仅是在法国如此，实际上在所有富裕国家中都是如此。在美国，例如，想要改革社会保障几乎是不可能的，在英国，这也非常困难。

In fact there's a very interesting article in the fd the past week and it shows a graph where in the uk and france you can see that seniors have been really doing very well for the past few decades compared to young people in the uk they actually have something called a triple lock pension where seniors can receive the highest of 2.5 percent inflation or weight growth so no matter what happens whether or not there's a burst of inflation whether or not there's deflation whether or not there's just a huge jump in wage growth seniors will get to reap that benefit i sound really sweet and i'm sure the politician who promised it got a lot of votes but at the moment you know the uk finances not really great and that just might not be sustainable.

事实上，上周在《金融时报》上有一篇非常有趣的文章，其中展示了一张图表，显示在英国和法国，过去几十年中老年人的生活一直比年轻人过得要好很多。在英国，他们实际上有一个叫做“三重锁定养老金”的政策，这意味着老年人可以获得在2.5%的通货膨胀率或工资增长之间较高的那一个。所以，无论发生什么，无论是通货膨胀暴涨、通货紧缩还是工资增长大幅度提高，老年人都能享受到这个好处。这听起来很诱人，我相信那个承诺这一政策的政治人物一定赢得了很多选票。然而，目前英国的财政状况不是很好，这种政策可能难以持续。

Now another graph in the ft that i found really interesting is it shows how well seniors do relative to working people whereas the 100 is what the typical working person does in the country and you can see in france a retiree actually is from a income perspective better off than someone who works full time so that dot is slightly above 100 whereas in all other countries you see a more normal pattern whereas when someone stops working the obviously obviously make less money than someone who still is working so again we all know the French pension is very generous but it looks like it's super generous.

我在金融时报上发现的另一张图表非常有趣，它展示了退休老人与在职人员之间的相对收入情况。图中，100代表该国家普通在职人员的收入水平。在法国，从收入角度来看，退休人员的生活实际上比全职工作的人要好一些，所以图中这个点略高于100。而在其他国家，你会看到一种更为正常的模式：即停止工作的人显然比仍在工作的人收入要少。因此，虽然我们都知道法国的养老金很慷慨，但看起来它真的是非常慷慨。

So now the sole is ultimately both an economic and a political problem it's an economic problem because looking at the fiscal deficits in france in the u.s in the uk this is not sustainable and you're beginning to see the bond market react to some way but of course it's a political problem because these are these are benefits promised by the state and they can only be taken away by the state and in order to do that you need to have political will and that's very difficult because seniors the vote basically they have a very strong political force and they vote against that.

因此，现在问题的根本既是经济问题也是政治问题。它是经济问题，因为看看法国、美国和英国的财政赤字，这种情况是不可持续的，并且你开始看到债券市场的某种反应。但这当然也是政治问题，因为这些福利是国家承诺的，只有国家才能取消。而要做到这一点，你需要有政治意愿，这非常困难，因为老年人投票，他们基本上是一个非常强大的政治力量，他们会投票反对这种取消。

Now when i think of the situation in the u.s it's also pretty clear that seniors hold a lot more political power not just because they vote but because they actually sit in many influential seats right and President Trump is old so was President Biden and if you look at congress many people like Nancy Pelosi like Chuck Schumer they're also very old as well so very much the seniors control the political power and because they rolled the wealth boom up over the past few decades they also have all the money which of course translates into political power.

现在，当我想到美国的情况时，很明显老人掌握了更多的政治权力，不仅因为他们投票，还因为他们实际占据了许多有影响力的职位。特朗普总统年纪大了，拜登总统也是如此。如果你看看国会，像南希·佩洛西和查克·舒默这样的人也都年纪很大。所以，老年人在很大程度上掌控着政治权力。因为在过去几十年里，他们在财富积累方面取得了巨大成功，所以他们也拥有大量财富，而财富当然可以转化为政治权力。

This is to go across the developed world so in order to have changes to make the country be on a more fiscal a sustainable trajectory that's just really difficult so what everyone is doing instead is raising taxes and importing more people trying to just kind of kick the can forward but of course raising taxes after a certain extent it makes things worse and you see that already in europe taxes can still go up a lot in the u.s and of course you see that importing a lot of people from other cultures and religions has not been very good for social stability.

这段话的意思是，为了让国家走上更加可持续的财政轨道，在发达国家这并不容易实现。因此，各国普遍采取的做法是提高税收和增加移民数量，以此来延缓问题。但显然，税收增加到一定程度后，情况反而会恶化，这在欧洲已经开始显现。在美国，税收依然有很大的上涨空间。当然，过多地引入其他文化和宗教背景的移民，对社会稳定性也没有太好的影响。

So at the end of the day there is really only one solution and that is that benefits have to be cut for the elderly that's that's only going to happen with significant pain i would say that in the u.s it's still possible for us to grow out of this and simply because the u.s just has a lot more growth and technology but then what happens historically is that you just kind of make more promises when you have more growth.

所以归根结底，实际上只有一个解决方案，那就是削减老年人的福利。不过，这将伴随很大的痛苦。我会说，在美国，我们还是有可能靠经济增长来解决这个问题，因为美国的增长潜力和技术优势更多。但从历史上看，通常在经济增长时，我们往往会做出更多承诺。

So this is something that is coming to head in the markets i don't think it's going to manifest in higher yields because authorities can always control that it's probably going to have a bigger impact on things like currencies and probably explains partially an ongoing rise in goal all right so that's all prepared for today and i'll talk to you on Wednesday i believe when we have the f.m.c meeting all right it's y'all then.

所以，这个问题在市场上即将浮出水面。我认为它不会表现为收益率的上升，因为当局总能控制住这个。然而，它可能会对货币等方面产生更大的影响，也可能部分解释了近期黄金价格的上涨。好了，这就是今天准备的全部内容，我会在周三，也就是联邦公开市场委员会会议召开的时候，再和大家交流。好的，我们到时候聊。