Markets Weekly August 30, 2025
发布时间 2025-08-30 16:07:30 来源
Hello my friends, today is August 30th and this is markets weekly. This past week we saw the S&P 500 making you all time high, although we would give some of that back on Friday. What really stood out to me of course was gold, absolutely surging the past week, not at all time highs but looks like it wants to go there. Now as we're filming the big news of course is that a quarter of appeals found that the Trump tariffs were illegal. So what's very likely to happen right now is that the Supreme Court will take up the case and rule on it sometime next year and in the meantime tariffs will continue.
你好，我的朋友们，今天是8月30日，这里是市场周报。上周我们看到标准普尔500指数创下了历史新高，尽管周五有所回落。让我印象深刻的是黄金，虽然没有达到历史新高，但过去一周表现非常强劲，似乎有继续上涨的趋势。目前的大新闻是，上诉法院裁定特朗普政府实施的关税是非法的。因此，现在非常可能发生的情况是，最高法院将受理此案，并可能在明年某个时间做出裁决。在此之前，关税将继续有效。
Now I understand some commentators and businesses are thinking that the courts will overturn this and we'll go back to normal but I strongly believe that that misunderstands on a very fundamental way how the world works but we'll find out in the coming months. On this past week we had some pretty big events when it comes to the Fed. So today first let's talk about the next episode of President Trump's War on the Fed and secondly let's talk a little bit about what's happening in Euroland because it looks like France is in trouble.
现在，我明白一些评论员和企业认为法院会推翻这一决定，我们会恢复正常。但我坚信，这从根本上误解了世界的运行方式，不过在接下来的几个月里我们会看到结果。过去这一周，与美联储有关的一些重大事件发生了。今天，首先让我们谈谈特朗普总统与美联储的斗争的下一集，其次，我们稍微谈谈欧元区的情况，因为似乎法国面临困难。
Alright, starting with the Fed. So as we all know the President would like to have lower interest rates. Over the past few months President Trump has labeled Sherpau as too late in other names and also very memorably paid a visit to the Federal Reserve to inspect their construction ongoing renovations to make sure that the cost of the runs are really not too excessive because maybe if the cost of the runs are so so high maybe that might be reason to get a new Fed chair but it looks like that line of inquiry has been paused. Over the past few weeks we've had Director Pulti of the FHFA investigate Governor Cook's mortgages and he's coming up with some concerning findings.
好的，先从美联储说起。正如我们都知道的，总统希望能降低利率。在过去的几个月里，特朗普总统曾称鲍威尔（Sherpau）行动缓慢，并给他冠了其他称号。令人印象深刻的是，特朗普还曾亲自访问美联储，检查他们正在进行的装修工程，以确保开支不会过于庞大。他认为，如果装修成本特别高，那可能就要考虑更换美联储主席。不过，这个调查似乎已经暂停了。在过去的几周里，我们看到联邦住房贷款抵押公司（FHFA）的Pulti主任调查了Cook州长的抵押贷款，并发现了一些令人担忧的问题。
So in the US you can get a mortgage for your primary residence that's the home that you live in, a secondary home and also investment properties. Among those three mortgages mortgage rates are lowest for your primary residence because in theory because you live there you take better care of the home it's a little bit higher for your second rate home and highest for your investment properties. Now what Director Pulti seems to have discovered is that Governor Cook has three mortgages and claim that all three were her primary residence and in the process benefited from lower mortgage rates and that of course is illegal.
在美国，你可以为你的主要住宅、第二住宅和投资物业申请房屋贷款。主要住宅是你居住的房子，这三种贷款中，主要住宅的贷款利率最低，因为理论上你住在那里，所以会更好地照顾房子。第二住宅的利率稍高，而投资物业的利率最高。现在，Pulti主任似乎发现，Cook州长有三笔贷款，并声称这三者都是她的主要住宅，因此通过这种方式享受了较低的贷款利率。当然，这种做法是违法的。
And so Director Pulti has publicized this in the past week. President Trump released a letter basically saying that he is firing Governor Cook. A few days later Governor Cook responded with a complaint alleging, suing the White House and the Board of Governors alleging that you know the president cannot fire her. So her claim is that her position is nominated by the president and confirmed by the Senate and according to the law she can only be removed quote unquote for cause that for cause is not defined.
因此，普尔蒂局长在过去一周公开宣传了这件事。特朗普总统发布了一封信，基本上就是宣布解雇库克州长。几天后，库克州长做出了回应，她提出了投诉并起诉白宫和州长委员会，宣称总统没有权力解雇她。她的主张是，她的职位是由总统提名并由参议院确认的，根据法律，她只能因“理由”被免职，但这个“理由”并没有被明确定义。
And so she's alleging that whatever is happening here these allegations they don't constitute cause to remove her so the president's firing is illegal. Now we did have a hearing on this by the courts on Friday that will continue next week but I think it's widely perceived that this will ultimately go to the Supreme Court. And the Supreme Court will have to decide what constitutes cause in this context and whether or not the allegations rise to that level. So those are the facts.
她声称无论在这里发生了什么，这些指控都不足以构成解雇她的理由，因此总统的解雇行为是不合法的。我们在周五对此进行了法庭听证会，下周将继续进行。我认为普遍认为这最终会提交到最高法院，由最高法院来决定在这个背景下什么才算正当理由，以及这些指控是否达到这个标准。这就是目前的情况。
So what could happen is that you know this could drag out we could eventually get a ruling from the Supreme Court and then we'll find out how this plays out. Alternatively we could also have a chirp howl go into protect the fed boat and try to push Governor Cook out a few years ago we've seen chirp howl push out vice-trick clear clearida as well as president Rosengrin and president Kaplan for behavior trading behavior that was not technically illegal but damaged the fed's reputation.
那么，可能发生的情况是，这个问题可能会拖延，最终我们可能会从最高法院得到一个裁决，然后我们就会知道事情如何发展。另外，也有可能是鲍威尔出面保护美联储，试图推动库克州长离开。几年前，我们曾看到鲍威尔逼退副主席克拉里达，以及因交易行为而损害了美联储声誉但在技术上并不非法的罗森格伦和卡普兰行长。
And so in order to protect the fed's reputation at chirp howl basically push those guys out of course they would say that they retired early or something like that but it's pretty clear what happened over there. Now so far there has been no indication that chirp howl would do this and of course through the lawsuit it seems like Governor Cook wouldn't leave anyway. So this is something that we're going to see continue to play out now in the coming weeks.
为了保护美联储的声誉，在Chirp Howl的施压下，那些人基本上被迫离开。当然，他们会声称自己是提前退休之类的，但很明显发生了什么。目前，还没有迹象表明Chirp Howl会这么做，并且通过诉讼来看，Cook州长似乎无意离开。所以，这件事情在接下来的几周里仍将继续发展。
So this kind of raises a bigger question though what is this all about and you know the president is not shy let's hear what he's said. We'll have a majority very shortly so that'll be great once we have a majority housing is going to swing and it's going to be great people are paying too high in interest rate that's the only problem with housing we have to get the rates down a little bit and when we do it's going to be a tremendous difference.
这就引出了一个更大的问题，这到底是怎么回事呢？总统可不避讳，让我们听听他的说法。我们很快将会拥有一个多数席位，这将是非常棒的。一旦我们拥有多数席位，住房市场将会出现转机，这将非常好。目前的问题是人们支付的利率太高，这是住房市场唯一的问题。我们需要稍微降低利率，当我们做到这一点时，情况将会有巨大改善。
So basically the president's strategy is that once they have let's say if he were able to replace Governor Cook then he would have a greater influence on the board of governors then in turn maybe remake the FOMC through appointments of fed presidents next year eventually he would control the fed and all its tools of course the fed has a bunch of tools not just lowering or hiking interest rates but also balance sheet and stuff like that. So he would have more influence in order to realize his goal of reindustrializing the United States.
总统的策略基本上是这样的：假设他能更换库克州长，那么他在总裁董事会中就会有更大的影响力，然后通过任命新的联邦储备银行行长，可能会在明年重新组建联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）。最终，他将控制美联储及其所有工具。当然，美联储拥有一系列工具，不仅仅是降低或提高利率，还有资产负债表等。因此，他能获得更多的影响力，以实现其美国再工业化的目标。
Now broadly speaking this is part of a bigger discussion as to the independence of monetary policy. Now many commentators are looking at this and they're afraid that if the president were to succeed and if we were to lose monetary independence we would become like Turkey and in Turkey as we all know President Ergodon over there has you know fires his venture big governors famously believes that the cure to high inflation is low interest rates and and that hasn't worked out for them and they've had very high interest rates and very very weak currencies over the past few years it's been that economic disaster.
总体来说，这涉及到一个更大的话题，即货币政策的独立性。现在，许多评论员对此表示担忧，他们害怕如果总统成功推行他的政策，而我们失去货币独立性的话，我们可能会变得像土耳其。众所周知，在土耳其，总统埃尔多安会解雇主要央行行长，并且他坚信应对高通胀的办法是低利率。然而，这并没有奏效，他们在过去几年经历了高通胀及非常疲软的货币，导致经济灾难。
So if the president were to have more control over monetary policy is at the future of the United States and let's be totally clear J.D. Vance also very candid said this and I think that's fundamentally what this is about. Who makes the decisions about this country is it those the American people elect or is an unelected bureaucrats and I feel very strongly that the president of the United States is much better able to make these determinations and by the way if the American people disagree with the president they of course can throw out the president every four years and throw in a new president but you can't say that the American people that the democratic decision-making process has no influence over monetary policy that's really really I think an anti-democratic principle.
所以，如果美国总统在未来能够对货币政策有更多控制权，明确地说，这就是美国未来的发展方向。J.D. Vance也非常坦率地谈到了这一点，我认为这就是问题的核心。关于这个国家的决策，是由美国人民选出的领导人负责，还是由那些未经选举的官僚来决定？我非常坚定地认为，美国总统更有能力做出这些决策。而且，如果美国人民不同意总统的决定，他们当然可以每四年更换一次总统。但是，不能说美国人民或者民主决策过程对货币政策毫无影响，我认为这实际上是一种反民主的原则。
So it's all out in the open the goal is to renegotiate our institutional arrangements so that the White House or and of course with Congress would have more control for monetary policy. Now I think it's important to realize that the idea of independence of monetary policy is something that it's actually pretty new. Now in the United Kingdom for example liberal democracy just like the United States when did they get monetary policy independence was it hundreds of years ago when King So-and-So bestowed it upon the Bank of England now actually it's a Prime Minister Tony Blair in 1997 so very recent development and of course in the in the centuries preceding that the United Kingdom was just fine.
这段话的意思是：关于目标为了让白宫或是国会对货币政策有更多控制权，现在我们必须坦诚公开地重新谈判我们的制度安排。我认为重要的是要意识到，货币政策独立的观念其实是相对新的。例如，在英国这样的自由民主国家，与美国相似，他们获得货币政策独立的时间并不是几百年前某个国王授予英格兰银行的时候，而是最近在1997年由时任首相托尼·布莱尔实现的。当然，在之前的几个世纪里，英国也运作得挺好。
Similarly in France they did not get monetary independence until the early 1990s and beforehand they were fine as well. Now in the United States we've had this institutional arrangement fed treasury independence who the treasury fed accord in the 1950s. Since then of course it's been great sometimes we've had high inflation in the 1970s and 80s we've actually had over a decade of high inflation in the 2020s just a few years ago we've also had very high inflation. So again it's worked out most of the time well but still sometimes you get really high inflation.
同样，在法国，他们直到20世纪90年代初才获得货币独立，而在此之前他们的状况也不错。在美国，我们自1950年代财政部与联邦储备达成协议以来，就一直有这样的制度安排。自那以后，大多数时候情况是好的，但在一些时期也经历了严重通货膨胀，比如20世纪70和80年代。同时，在2020年代的几年里，我们也经历了非常高的通货膨胀。所以，总体上这些制度大多数情况下是有效的，但有时确实会出现严重的通货膨胀。
So we can see from history is that you know monetary policy independence it can be good but you know you can have it and still have high inflation you can not have it and also have low inflation. So it's kind of something that's I think I think over emphasized too much because the truth is as we see with significant fiscal spending inflation is a complicated thing it's not all about interest rates. It's oftentimes a whole of government approach you need to have adjustments that fiscal spending and maybe you need to have adjustments in your you know international trade policy maybe all the things as well it could just do things like technology too that is outside of the government's control.
从历史中我们可以看出，货币政策的独立性是好的，但即便拥有这种独立性，通货膨胀仍然可能很高；反之，没有这种独立性，也可能会保持低通胀。因此，我认为这个问题被过于强调了。实际上，正如我们在大规模财政支出中看到的，通货膨胀是一个复杂的问题，不仅仅与利率有关。通常需要政府各方面措施的综合应用，比如调整财政支出，也许还需要调整国际贸易政策，还有可能涉及技术等不在政府控制范围内的因素。
So inflation is a really tricky thing and I think there's been way too much emphasis in the role central banks playing it it's kind of dogma actually. Now this past week there was also a very interesting odd lots episode with former British Prime Minister this trust. Of course this trust famously did not last very long there was a revolt in the guilt market so the story goes upon the unveiling of her plans.
通货膨胀是一个非常复杂的问题，我认为人们对央行在其中的作用过于强调，这实际上有点像教条。这周有一个非常有趣的“Odd Lots”节目，采访了英国前首相特拉斯。当然，特拉斯的任期并没有持续很长时间，因为据说在她公布计划后，国债市场发生了动荡。
She wanted to delay tax tax increases and that seemingly led the bottom market to revolt and so she had to resign truly shortly after. In that podcast she made some interesting observations about monetary policy and independence and she was supportive of President Trump's efforts to have more control over monetary policy. Now a couple interesting things I thought she made was that. So let's say that the central bank has responsibility for inflation but if they fail you know what happens the central bank is still there but it's the elected politicians that actually have to pay the price and we can see that vice president Harris did not do well in the ballot box in part because the public did not like inflation.
她想推迟提高税收，这似乎导致股市反弹，结果她很快就不得不辞职。在那期播客中，她对货币政策和独立性发表了一些有趣的看法，并支持特朗普总统在货币政策上争取更多控制权的努力。其中一点有趣的是：假设央行负责控制通胀，但如果失败了，你知道会发生什么吗？央行依然存在，但真正要付出代价的是当选的政客。我们可以看到，副总统哈里斯在选票中表现不佳，部分原因是公众不喜欢通胀。
So monetary policy independence has this strange impact where the central bank is not accountable for their actions is actually the other all the government who stands for elections so largely speaking it would make more sense for the elected government to have more control of monetary policy since they are the ones accountable at the ballot box. Another point that this trust raised was that you know when she was trying to carry out her plan that as an elected representative of the people it was her right to do she had to take into account the budget which in a big part of that is interest expense and that is determined by the bank of England.
所以，货币政策的独立性有一个奇怪的影响，就是中央银行对其行动不需要负责，而实际上负责的却是通过选举产生的政府。因此，从大体上讲，让民选政府对货币政策有更多控制会更加合理，因为他们需要对选民负责。另一个值得注意的观点是，这种信任提到，当她作为民选代表试图执行她的计划时，她有权这么做，但她必须考虑预算，其中一个大部分是利息支出，而这由英格兰银行决定。
So in a sense the bank of England could get these people who sit in the central bank who are not elected could have enormous veto power over the plans of the elected government and that doesn't seem to be democratically accountable. Again remember in the United States just a few years ago we had a former fed president build Dudley basically write an op-ed in the Bloomberg telling the fed that they should basically conduct monetary policy to push out president Trump because he didn't like him. So again you have this strange dynamic where a small group of people who are not elected are actually having tremendous impact on the elected government and these central bankers of course don't seem to have much accountability.
在某种意义上，英格兰银行的这些位于中央银行的非民选人员，可能会对民选政府的计划拥有巨大的否决权，这看起来并不符合民主问责制。同样要记住，在美国，就在几年前，我们有一位前美联储主席比尔·达德利，基本上在彭博社上撰写了一篇文章，告诉美联储他们应该通过货币政策来打击特朗普总统，因为他不喜欢他。所以我们又看到了这种奇怪的现象：一小群非民选的人实际上对民选政府产生了巨大的影响，而这些中央银行家似乎没有太多的问责机制。
So there's a very interesting political economy question to this. So how this is going to play out I don't know what I would emphasize though is that central bank independence is neither necessary nor sufficient for price stability and it also raises some very important questions about democratic governance. So I wouldn't dismiss this outright and I know that many people who you know study economics religiously and pulsively are supportive of central bank independence especially the central bankers but of course just as Sam ultimate would tell you that AI is great or Jamie Diamond tell you that big banks is great naturally we have to be mindful when all the central bankers are saying that central bank independence is good.
这当中有一个非常有趣的政治经济学问题。我不确定事情将如何发展，但我想强调的是，中央银行的独立性既不是实现价格稳定的必要条件，也不是充分条件，同时这也引发了关于民主治理的一些重要问题。因此，我不会直接否定这个观点。我知道很多认真研究经济学的人，尤其是中央银行行长们，通常支持中央银行的独立性。但正如Sam Altman会告诉你人工智能很棒，或者Jamie Dimon会说大型银行很好一样，当所有中央银行家都说中央银行独立性好的时候，我们需要谨慎看待。
Again it is good but again it's not the only thing that matters. So we are in a world of great change as I've discussed in the past the future will not look like the past and maybe we will have a more cohesive industrial policy potentially potentially like how it is in China. In China there is no independent central bank. The government has an industrial plan and everyone works to support it and that means the banks making loans and that makes the central bank keeping interest rates low and they have not had an inflation problem actually because they have so much tremendous supply capacity they've had kind of a deflation problem over the past. A few years of course the bursting of the property bubble impacts that as well.
再说一遍，它确实不错，但它并不是唯一重要的事情。所以，我们正处于一个巨大变革的世界中，正如我过去所提到的，未来将不再像过去那样，也许我们将拥有一个更具凝聚力的产业政策，可能会像中国那样。在中国，没有独立的中央银行，政府有一个产业计划，所有人都支持这个计划。这意味着银行发放贷款，中央银行保持低利率。实际上他们没有遇到通货膨胀的问题，因为他们拥有巨大的供应能力，近年来甚至有点通货紧缩。当然，房地产泡沫的破裂也对这一状况造成了影响。
So again this is a complicated puzzle don't get bamboozled by just these silly dogmas. All right the second thing that I want to talk about is what's happening in the eurozone. So basically what's happening it looks like at least for France they are reaching the end of socialism as I believe Prime Minister Sacher once said they are running out of other people's money. So if you look at where French yields are creating relative to German ban yields, German ban yields being of course the benchmark for euro denominated rates it continues to widen. So French debt is perceived to be more and more risky by the market and why is that?
再一次，这个问题很复杂，不要被那些愚蠢的教条所迷惑。好了，我想谈的第二个话题是正在欧元区发生的事情。基本上，目前的情况看起来至少在法国，他们正在步入社会主义的末端，正如撒切尔总理曾经说过的，他们正在耗尽别人的钱。如果你观察法国与德国邦债收益率之间的差距，德国邦债收益率当然是欧元计价利率的基准，这个差距一直在扩大。这说明市场认为法国的债务风险越来越大，这是为什么呢？
It's because the Prime Minister of France is basically calling it calling for a vote of confidence. He has a plan to try to get France back on you know a more sustainable fiscal trajectory. For context France has a very high fiscal deficit and around 5 is 6% a little bit less than the United States. However a major difference between France and the United States a few major differences is that France is not a monetary sovereign there within the euro. That's kind of like being on the gold standard. So the Bank de France can I just print money like like the Fed can they have to defer to the ECB so they are constrained there.
这是因为法国总理基本上是在呼吁进行信任投票。他有一个计划，希望让法国回到更可持续的财政轨迹上。需要注意的是，法国的财政赤字很高，约为5%到6%，略低于美国。然而，法国和美国之间有一些主要的区别，其中一个是法国不是货币主权国家，因为它是在欧元区。这有点像实行金本位。因此，法国央行不能像美联储那样随意印钞，他们必须听从欧洲央行的决定，因此在这方面受到限制。
Secondly they don't really have very good growth and European economies in general don't have very good growth so they really can't grow out of their debt. Growth is much stronger in the United States which continues to have a lot of technological innovation.
其次，欧洲经济体的增长普遍不太理想，因此它们很难通过经济增长来消化债务。而美国的经济增长则相对较强，因为美国在技术创新方面持续保持领先。
And thirdly France is also already a very very highly taxed country actually the most highly taxed country in the OECD. So they can't really just race taxes to pay down their debt because taxes are already very high. They are likely at the point where if they order to race taxes they would actually get less revenue simply because people would work less in the wealthy people would flee.
第三，法国已经是一个税负非常高的国家，实际上是经济合作与发展组织（OECD）中税负最高的国家。因此，他们无法通过简单地提升税收来偿还债务，因为税收已经很高了。他们很可能已经到了一个临界点，如果再提高税收，反而可能收入减少，因为人们会减少工作，富人可能会离开。
In the past they have experimented with a wealth tax and that ended up with many wealthy French earners moving to Belgium and other countries so that's off the table as well. In contrast in the United States tax rates are relatively low so we could continue to increase taxes to pay down our debt to manage a fiscal issues and that's probably what will happen in the coming years.
过去，他们曾尝试实施财富税，但结果导致许多富有的法国收入者搬到了比利时和其他国家，因此这个方案也被放弃了。相比之下，美国的税率相对较低，所以我们可以继续增加税收来偿还债务，以应对财政问题，这可能就是未来几年将要发生的事情。
So at the end of the day France has high debt, generous welfare system, no growth and also very high taxes so the only way they can get rid of out of their debt situation is you know kind of restructure their spending and that's very very difficult to do in a democratic country right. So you restructure spending you cut benefits a little bit and you'll get tremendous amounts of protests in the streets and so the prime minister over there from Sauron-Beroux is trying to cut spending a little bit and he's not able to do it like they're writing parties who don't do it, they're left-wing parties who don't do it.
所以，总而言之，法国面临高债务、慷慨的福利制度、经济停滞和高税收的问题。他们唯一能摆脱债务困境的方法就是调整支出结构，但这在民主国家是非常困难的。调整支出意味着削减一些福利，这会引发大规模的街头抗议。因此，来自Sauron-Beroux的总理尝试削减开支，但他无法做到。无论是右翼政党还是左翼政党都不愿意这样做。
Basically the populist left and the populist right don't want this and the center is becoming very weak. So it looks like he's going to fail his vote of confidence and then what could happen is that they could have a new prime minister with a new budget plan or maybe even call new elections to try to for one part to get a new majority.
基本上，民粹左翼和民粹右翼都不希望这样，而中间派变得非常薄弱。所以看起来他可能会在信任投票中失败，随后可能会出现新任首相带着新的预算计划上台，或者可能会举行新的选举，以尝试让某一方获得新的多数席位。
So there's no really easy solution to this so we can see that this is manifesting bond market and we can also see that the euro is sold off a little bit the past past week. Again it's kind of hard to get these readings because France is just one part of the eurozone and of course we also have this ongoing struggle with the Fed in the United States.
因此，没有真正简单的解决方案，所以我们可以看到这在债券市场中显现出来，我们也观察到上周欧元略有贬值。同样，这些情况难以解读，因为法国只是欧元区的一部分，当然，我们还有与美国联邦储备系统之间持续的斗争。
So again not on that is of course whatever happens in France is not good for the euro. Now just across the channel in the UK you also have a similar dynamic playing out where the UK also seems to be running into fiscal troubles. Same very similar problem to France but they do have an additional lever they do have their own currency.
当然，无论法国发生什么，对欧元来说都不是好事。现在在海峡对岸的英国，也出现了类似的情况，英国似乎也面临财政困难。英国与法国面临着非常相似的问题，但他们还有一个额外的优势，就是拥有自己的货币。
So we are seeing slowly play out the end game to this model of government. So it's going to be exciting it's going to be a lot of turmoil and I think it's no surprise that we saw gold surge. I mean at the end of the day one easy outlet of course is just to have the central banks maybe the ECV saying that the spreads are wide so much activates their special spread narrowing mechanism and try to support the markets probably we'll have to see some fiscal resorbing for you in order for them to do that but we are we are definitely approaching the end game to this growth model so I can't wait to see what the next chapter is.
所以，我们正在慢慢地看到这种政府模式的终局。接下来会很精彩，但也会有很多动荡。这就是为什么我们看到黄金飙升也不奇怪。最终，一个简单的解决办法可能是让央行，比如欧洲央行，指出利差过大，从而启动它们的特殊缩小利差机制，试图支持市场。当然，他们可能需要一些财政措施配合才能这样做。但是，我们确实正在接近这个增长模式的终点，我迫不及待地想看到下一章的到来了。
All right so that's all I prepared for today. Thanks so much for tuning in. Now it's hot to you guys next week.
好的，这就是我今天准备的全部内容。非常感谢大家的收看。我们下周再见。