Markets Weekly September 6 2025
发布时间 2025-09-06 16:07:17 来源
Hello my friends, today is September 6th and this is markets weekly. So this past week we saw the S&P 500 briefly touch new all-time highs but was faded pretty aggressively. I think the standout to me in the market the past week was of course gold and based continuing to run with its breakouts precipitated in large part due to the non-forms payroll report which of course was the highlight of the past week and is changing the perceptions of many people but hopefully none of you because I've been talking for some time about the weakening US economy and the slowing labor market. So today let's talk about two things.
你好，朋友们，今天是9月6日，这里是本周市场播报。上周，我们看到标普500指数短暂触及历史新高，但随后急剧下跌。在我看来，上周市场的亮点无疑是黄金，继续随着其突破而上涨，这在很大程度上是由于上周的非农就业报告。这份报告是上周的焦点，也改变了许多人的看法，但希望你们中没有人被改变，因为我早已谈到美国经济的疲软和劳动力市场的放缓。那么，今天我们来讨论两件事情。
First off let's talk about the labor market data we got the past week and secondly let's talk about the global bond market sell off that's happening particularly in the longer data 10 or say 30 years. Alright starting with the job support. So this past week jobs market data started out with Jolts. Jolts is basically showing how many job opening listings are being advertised in the US and as you can see it's was lower than expected but not just that it's basically to a level that's around pre-pandemic and given that our population is larger today you could say that it's obviously the job market today is weaker than it was pre-pandemic.
首先，我们来谈谈过去一周我们获得的劳动力市场数据，其次再讨论全球债券市场的抛售情况，尤其是较长期的10年或30年债券。好，先从就业支持数据说起。本周的就业市场数据首先是JOLTS报告。JOLTS基本上显示美国有多少职位空缺正在被广告宣传。正如你所见，这一数字低于预期，而且基本上处于接近疫情前的水平。考虑到今天的人口比那时更多，可以说目前的就业市场显然比疫情前更弱。
So that was of course kind of a yellowish red flag. Subsequently we got the latest ADP report. The ADP of course is a large payments processor so large that it even publishes its own job reports and maybe one day if people have less confidence in the public data provided by the US government vendors like ADP would become even more prominent. But in any case their publication was a little bit below expectations it wasn't terrible but wasn't particularly special either. Now finally we end up at Friday where we get the big star of the week the non-forms payroll.
这当然算是一个略显警示的信号。随后，我们获得了最新的ADP报告。ADP是一家非常大的支付处理公司，它甚至自己发布就业报告，也许有一天如果人们对美国政府提供的公共数据信心不足，像ADP这样的公司可能会变得更加重要。但不管怎样，他们发布的数据略低于预期，不算糟糕，但也没什么特别出彩的地方。最后，我们来到了星期五，这一天会有本周的重头戏——非农就业数据发布。
So recall last week's non-forms payroll was a big surprise because the revision showed that all those jobs that we saw a few months ago they were basically illusory. The revisions wiped them all away and showed the job market was indeed much weaker than expected. So today's jobs market expectations was around 75,000. We got like 20,000-some thousand which of course was a big disappointment. But again like we've talked about normally we can't just look at the headline number we also have to look into the details and when you look into the details it's also very clearly not good.
回想上周公布的非农就业数据，那真是一个大惊喜，因为调整后的数据表明，几个月前我们看到的那些新增就业机会基本上是虚假的。调整后的数据删除了那些数字，显示就业市场实际上比预期的要疲软得多。所以，今天对就业市场的预期是大约75,000的新增就业岗位，但实际上只有2万多一点，这当然是一个很大的失望。不过，就像我们之前讨论过的，我们不能仅仅看主要数据，还需要看细节，而看了细节后也非常明显地显示情况不佳。
So wage growth year over year a little bit lower so what else? If you look at the report for participation went up a little bit so that's good but then the work week didn't shrink a little bit so that's not good and of course the unemployment rate ticked up a little bit but that was also expected. But more alarmingly to me if you zoom out a bit and take into account the revisions again every month there are revisions you can see that we actually lost jobs in June. We had a negative NFP print and that's something we haven't really seen in quite a long time.
工资同比增长略有下降，那么还有什么值得注意的呢？如果你看报告，会发现劳动参与率略有上升，这算是个好消息。但工作周时长没有缩短，这不太好，而且失业率小幅上升，不过这是意料之中的。不过，更让我感到担忧的是，如果你从更广的角度看，并考虑到每个月的数据修正，你会发现我们实际上在六月损失了工作岗位，非农就业数据是负值，这是我们很久没有见到的情况。
But again zooming out looking at the trend it's really inescapable that the labor market, the jobs being created is steadily declining. Now some people would say that this is because of immigration less supply probably but it's both very very clearly less than man. So I mean the story is about running it hot or re-exhilaration that's just obviously obviously wrong. I mean it's been completely at odds with the data for months. So I think even Chirpau and many people on Ipom see talking about a strong labor market. It's kind of coming turning out that that was clearly the wrong perspective.
但是，再次放眼大局，趋势表明劳动力市场和创造的工作岗位正在稳步下降。现在，一些人可能会说这是由于移民减少导致的供应不足，但同时很明显的需求也在减少。因此，关于经济过热或复苏加速的说法显然是错误的。这种看法与几个月来的数据完全不符。所以，我认为即使是Chirpau和很多在Ipom的专家谈论强劲的劳动力市场，这种观点现在显然被证明是错误的。
Governor Waller was right, the president was right and it's looking that the Fed actually is too late. So the market took one look at this data and reacted pretty predictably for the most part. So the rates of market of course saw this and knew that records are even are coming in a big way. So looking at the curve you can see the entire curve shifted lower. With a 10 year really just a little bit about 4% now. So we all knew that we were going to have a September cut and looking at September that's basically a lock.
瓦勒州长和总统的看法是正确的，现在看来美联储可能行动有些晚了。因此，市场看到这些数据后，大体上作出了相对可预见的反应。市场的利率当然也看到了这一点，并意识到未来将有大幅调整的可能。所以，观察收益率曲线，你可以看到整条曲线都下移了。10年期国债收益率现在大约在4%左右。因此，我们都知道9月份会有一次利率下调，可以说这是板上钉钉的事情。
Now there are even some whispers of 50 basis point cut that is possible. We probably have to look at the inflation data next week to get a better perspective on that. But the market is really surprising in that much of a chance. What the market is increasingly sure of is that we will get three 25 basis point cuts this year. I think that sounds totally reasonable. Now one of the things you can look at this data is if you just look at just where the jobs are being created.
现在甚至有一些传言说可能会有50个基点的降息。我们可能需要看看下周的通胀数据，以便对此有更好的看法。不过，市场对这一可能性表示非常惊讶。市场越来越确信的是，今年我们将看到三次25个基点的降息。我认为这听起来完全合理。现在，你可以通过观察就业岗位的分布情况来看这些数据。
So there's a good chart by Parker who has these very good threads breaking out the jobs markets data. You can see that over the past few months jobs are basically only created in healthcare basically services for the boomers for everything else in the economy. Not really that much. So for most industries he has this interesting diffusion index seems to be losing jobs. So it's very unambiguous now that the labor market is quite weak. And this has big potential revocations for the economy because if you don't have a job then you can't spend money. If you don't spend money maybe someone else doesn't have a job. These things tend to escalate in a non-linear fashion which is why when you see surges in the unemployment rate they tend to have momentum. This is what many people describe as the salm rule or the deadly rule or so forth.
帕克制作了一张很好的图表，他通过这些很有见地的帖子分析了就业市场数据。可以看到，过去几个月中，新增工作岗位主要集中在医疗保健行业，这基本上是为了婴儿潮一代提供的服务。在经济的其他领域，就业增长并不明显。在大多数行业中，他提出的一个有趣的扩散指数显示就业正在减少。因此，现在非常明显的是，劳动市场相当疲软。这对经济可能产生重大影响，因为如果没有工作，就无法消费；而如果不消费，可能会导致其他人失去工作。这种情况往往会以非线性方式升级，这也是为什么当失业率激增时，通常会产生惯性的原因。许多人称这为“萨姆规则”或“致命规则”等。
So this is a part where it's not unreasonable to expect big and aggressive cuts but at the moment given what inflation is and given from the fact that we did have last month what was kind of okay. So I think they won't do that at the moment. But of course looking at other asset classes again more rate cuts, weaker economy, gold surging, US dollar, noticeably weaker, totally normal. Though for the dollar weakness aspect we have to keep in mind that things are not going super well in other countries either but the dollar did leg down notably.
因此，在这个部分，预计会有大幅且激进的降息并不算不合理，但考虑到目前的通货膨胀情况以及上个月的数据表现还算不错，所以我认为他们此刻不会这样做。当然，再看看其他资产类别，更多的降息、经济疲软、黄金飙升和美元明显走弱，都是完全正常的。然而，对于美元走弱这方面，我们必须记住，其他国家的情况也不算特别好，但美元确实显著下跌了。
Now what was really interesting to me to begin with was that you saw equities absolutely surge. You have people saying that bad job report, rates lower, obviously equities have to go higher as well. I think what happened was the markets opened and some maybe wiser hands took into work opened up and sold it down but that was surprising to me and sometimes good news and sometimes bad news is good news. It's always a judgment issue and in my judgment thinking that bad job report is good for the stock market is going to be totally wrong.
一开始，我感到非常有趣的是，股票市场突然大幅上涨。有人说糟糕的就业报告会导致利率下降，所以股市肯定会上涨。我认为发生的情况是，市场开盘后，一些可能更有经验的人进行了操作，把股市卖了下来，但这令我感到惊讶。有时候，好消息和坏消息的影响可能是相反的，但这总是一个判断问题。在我看来，认为糟糕的就业报告对股市是好事是完全错误的。
And of course we have to check in to checking with the president to see what he thought about this and let's listen to him. Mr. President, tomorrow we have a jobs report coming out the first since the BLS commission are who you fired won't be there. A lot of people will be turning to you to see if you believe the data that's released. Can you commit to say we'll be credible?
当然，我们必须与总统沟通，看看他对此事的看法，接下来我们来听听他的意见。总统先生，明天将发布一份就业报告，这是自您解雇了统计局负责人以来的第一份。很多人会关注您，看看您是否相信发布的数据。您能否承诺这些数据将是可信的？
I don't know they come out tomorrow but the real numbers that I'm talking about are going to be whatever it is but we'll be in a year from now when these monsters huge beautiful places, the palaces of genius and when they start opening up you're seeing I think you'll see job numbers that are going to be absolutely incredible. Right now it's a lot of construction numbers but you're going to see job numbers like our country has never seen before. Thank you.
我不知道他们明天是否会公布出来，但我所关心的真正数据将是未来一年的情况。当这些巨大的、美丽的地方——智慧的殿堂——开始开放时，我认为你会看到非常惊人的就业数据。现在主要是大量的建设数据，但未来的就业数字将超出我们国家以往的水平。谢谢。
So that's the president the night before so Thursday evening at a dinner with tech CEOs. Now the president has this information at this at that time the senior officials in the US government get data like this the night before and so he's basically telling you that you know maybe it's going to be like this for some time. I think he's I think he's bracing for a period of weakness and telling you that after this period passes we have got all these investment pouring in takes time to spend up factories.
因此，星期四晚上，总统在与科技公司首席执行官共进晚餐。总统在那时已经掌握了这些信息，美国政府的高级官员通常会在前一天晚上获得这样的数据。他实际上是在告诉你，也许情况在一段时间内会是这样。我觉得他正在为一个较弱的时期做准备，并告诉你在这个时期结束之后，我们还有大量的投资涌入，建造工厂需要一些时间。
After all we have Japan who was giving me $550 billion to invest in the United States of course we're going to create jobs and so forth so maybe it'll show up in a year maybe maybe later so I think everyone at the BLS can breathe a style of relief he's not going to fire anyone else and who knows maybe if we do have new management over there that we could have different numbers.
毕竟，日本承诺向我提供5500亿美元用于投资美国，当然我们会创造就业机会等等，所以也许这些成果会在一年后显现，也可能更晚。我想，统计局的每个人都可以松一口气，他不会解雇其他人。而且，谁知道呢，如果我们那边有了新的管理层，可能会看到不同的数据结果。
So next I should highlight that next week we have something called the QECW or QCW it's the it's a time when the the BLS basically benchmarks their employment data so what we see on a month-to-month basis is just a survey they ask a whole bunch of people and then have a statistical model that produces an output that says yeah the US economy probably probably created this many jobs.
所以接下来我要强调的是，下周我们将迎来一个称作 QECW 或 QCW 的东西，这是美国劳工统计局 (BLS) 基本上用来校准他们就业数据的时间。因此，我们每个月看到的只是一个调查结果，他们会询问很多人，然后利用统计模型得出一个结果，告诉我们美国经济可能创造了多少就业机会。
Now the the benchmark though it's going to be thorough it's going to be much less of a survey it's going to have tremendous coverage so it's basically the truth when it comes to the job market and I think the widespread expectation is that it's also going to show that the US created much fewer jobs than the surveys are indicating so that's all we have to say about the jobs market.
现在，虽然基准数据会非常详尽，但它的调查性质会少一些，但它会有非常广泛的覆盖范围，因此在就业市场方面基本可视为真实情况。我认为，普遍的预期是，这个基准数据还会显示美国创造的就业岗位比调查所显示的要少得多。所以这就是我们对就业市场的全部看法。
Now the next thing that I want to talk about is something that's been in the markets focus the past few weeks and I think it's going to continue to be the markets focus going forward and that is we could be at the very beginning of some sort of distress in the sovereign debt market. So just looking at the 30 year bond market 30 year yields across the developed world have been surging.
现在，我想谈谈另一件重要的事情。这件事在过去几周一直是市场关注的焦点，我认为未来也将继续如此。这就是我们可能正处于主权债务市场出现某种困境的起始阶段。观察一下30年期债券市场，会发现发达国家的30年期债券收益率正在飙升。
Now there was a notable pullback in the US on Friday after all if we have a recession and I don't know if we will but there is a meaningful chance then where it will come down and that will affect the 30 year as well. So even if guys even if you have tremendous fiscal deficits if you have a recession asset prices come down consumption comes down prices come down it's a there's an economic cycle to this. But of course longer run though that longer run though if you have a physical problem obviously it's going to have upward pressure on inflation.
周五，美国市场出现了明显的回调。毕竟，如果我们经历经济衰退（对此我也不确定，但有一定可能性），那么市场将会下跌，这也会影响到30年期国债。因此，即使财政赤字巨大，如果发生经济衰退，资产价格会下降，消费会减少，价格也会下降，这是一种经济循环。然而，从长期来看，如果财政状况不佳，显然会对通胀产生上行压力。
So looking across first off a lot of people are looking at the US 30 year and saying that you know it's been around 5% maybe it will break through but if you take a step back as I've just shown this is something that is very much a global problem but I also would like to highlight that there are actually different drivers of this it's not just all about the fiscal situation although of course that is an important part.
首先，很多人关注美国30年期国债利率，并认为它可能会突破5%。但如果我们退一步看，这是一个全球性的问题。然而，我也想强调，这个问题的驱动因素有很多，不仅仅是财政状况，虽然财政状况确实是其中一个重要部分。
Now first off again we start with first principles you know prices are supply and demand and people buy and sell for very different reasons. One of the drivers in the huge bond markets all off is rather technical and that is you have pretty big pension reforms in the Netherlands. Now the Netherlands has one of the largest pension actually the largest pension system in the eurozone about 2 trillion in assets and they just had a major reform that is going to be ongoing.
首先，我们从基本原则开始，价格是由供求关系决定的。人们买卖东西的原因各不相同。在庞大的债券市场中，其中一个技术性较强的驱动因素是荷兰的养老金改革。荷兰拥有欧元区规模最大的养老金体系，资产约为2万亿欧元。这个体系刚刚经历了一次重大改革，改革将会持续进行。
So pension funds are one of the largest buyers of long dated bonds because they have long dated liabilities that they need to hedge. So if you are a pension fund so you are basically promising to pay someone some amount of money say 30, 40 years from now when they retire. So one way to hedge that liability is to buy a 30 year asset. So let's say you take money from the retire from the worker today invested in a 30 year bond 30 years later you know as the bond with 30 years later as the pension fund person begins withdraw you have money to pay them your money will continue to accumulate in these long duration assets.
养老金基金是长期债券的最大买家之一，因为它们有长期债务需要对冲。如果你是一家养老金基金，基本上就是承诺在某人退休后，比如30年或40年后，支付他们一笔钱。对冲这种债务的一种方式就是购买一个30年的资产。假设你从今天工作的员工那里拿钱投资在一个30年期的债券上，30年后，当养老金领取者开始提取资金时，你就有钱支付给他们。你的资金将继续在这些长期资产中积累。
So it's a liability management exercise. So if you have a change in your pension system maybe pension funds don't want to buy for whatever reason don't need to buy as much longer dated bonds that's going to have an impact on the prices of longer dated bonds and that's exactly what's happened in the Netherlands. Now they like most pension funds in the past or in the year or a land they have a pretty generous pension fund where you have a it's called defined benefits basically boomers get to have a generous payouts.
所以这是一种负债管理的操作。如果你的养老体系发生了变化，也许养老基金出于某种原因不再需要购买那么多长期债券，这就会对长期债券的价格产生影响。这正是荷兰所发生的情况。在过去或者说在该国，他们的养老基金一般都比较慷慨，采用的是所谓的“固定收益”模式，即让婴儿潮一代获得丰厚的养老金支付。
However, I'm guessing that they realize like everyone else this is basically unsustainable right you made a lot of promises to people now that you retire you don't have enough money to pay out all the promises you have looking for looking forward to all the people that are eventually going to need to take out benefits. You definitely for the boomers but for the people afterwards probably not. It's basically a Ponzi scheme structure right that's literally how most pension funds work they are underfunded they made generous promises probably oftentimes a government official made this promise to get elected and then they you know they basically paid the benefits for the boomers from receipts from the younger workers but again there's not enough money for the younger workers when they retire.
不过，我猜他们也意识到和其他人一样，这种情况基本上是不可持续的。你做出了很多承诺，但现在你退休了，却没有足够的钱来兑现所有这些承诺。这些承诺涉及到未来所有需要领取福利的人。对于婴儿潮一代（战后出生的一代），你可能还支付得起，但对于之后的人来说，可能就不行了。这基本上就是一种庞氏骗局的结构。这实际上是大多数养老金基金运作的方式：资金不足，却做出了慷慨的承诺。很多时候，这些承诺可能是政府官员为了当选而做出的。然后，基本上就是用年轻职工的缴款支付婴儿潮一代的福利，但同样，年轻职工退休后可能就没有足够的资金了。
So what they're doing is some kind of restructuring in the US is something very similar to this in the private sector in the past that is shifting from defined benefits to defined contributions. So in the US for example if you work at a company you don't get a promised pension say you're going to get 30% or 40% of your salary when you retire you get to say put 6% of your salary into a 401k or something like that that is invested at a tax advantage in tax advantage way and when you retire you get to withdraw from those that money the amount of money that you contributed and the earnings accumulated over that period.
他们正在做的是某种程度的重组，与过去美国私营部门所做的很相似，即从固定收益计划转向固定缴费计划。在美国，例如，如果你在一家公司工作，你不会得到一个承诺的养老金，比如在退休时将获得你薪水的30%或40%。相反，你可以选择将你的6%薪水投入到一个类似401k的账户中，这笔钱以税收优惠的方式进行投资。当你退休时，你可以从中提取你所缴纳的钱，以及这段时间内所积累的收益。
So the Dutch pension system is transitioning to a defined contribution like setting whereas especially younger people can put some money in it will be managed by the pension fund authorities and what they receive when they retire is what they put in plus the earnings not some kind of promised benefits. So that means that well pension funds pension managers don't really have to hedge their longer-dated liabilities anymore with say 30, 40 year bonds they can probably have to sell some of them or at least reduce their demand for them.
荷兰的养老金体系正在转型为类似于固定缴款的模式。特别是年轻人可以将一部分资金投入其中，这些资金将由养老金基金管理机构来管理。当他们退休时，他们所获得的将是他们投入的资金加上收益，而不是某种承诺的福利。这意味着养老金基金的管理者不再需要通过持有比如30年或40年的长期债券来对冲他们的长期负债，他们可能需要出售一些债券，或至少减少对这些债券的需求。
So that is shaking up a lot of the European government bond markets and part of the reason driving the euro bond markets higher in the longer end. So that is one technical aspect and it could of course remember rate to the United States global bond markets are connected. Now a second major driver of this is as we alluded to the fiscal situation and that's clear in the United Kingdom. Now the United Kingdom is obviously in a lot of trouble so when the UK budget is let's say too high they're spending too much money and what you would see if the pounding appreciate and the UK guilt you it's surge that is classic signs of emerging market it's basically a country that has run out of the confidence of the market.
这正在动摇许多欧洲政府债券市场，也是推动欧元债券市场长期走高的部分原因。这是一个技术性因素，当然也要记住，美国与全球债券市场是相互关联的。第二个主要驱动力是我们提到的财政状况，这在英国尤为明显。英国显然面临许多问题，比如，当英国的预算过高，他们花费过多时，英镑会升值，英国国债收益率会猛增。这些都是新兴市场的经典迹象，基本上意味着这个国家已经失去了市场的信任。
So when you run out of confidence of the market the market assigns you a risk premium in your bond yields. And so that's part of the reason why UK longer-dated guilt yields just continue to rise and you can say that's happening in France as well as we talked about last week. The French fiscal deficit is large and looking at the French politics there really is no path to have meaningful budget reform. And so there's a meaningful risk to the market there. I think it's very unlikely there will be some kind of default but you know this is ultimately a political game has to do what the ECB is going to do what the European community is going to do. France of course is a core member so they do have a lot of political sway then and of course ECB president Madame Lagarde was formally finance minister and French government and I'm sure she wants to take care of her own.
所以，当你对市场失去信心时，市场会在你的债券收益率中给予你风险溢价。这也是为什么英国长期国债收益率不断上升的部分原因，我们上周也提到了法国的类似情况。法国的财政赤字很大，从法国的政治局势来看，基本没有途径进行有意义的预算改革。因此，市场面临着显著风险。我认为出现违约的可能性很小，但这最终是一个政治博弈，涉及到欧洲央行和欧洲共同体的应对策略。当然，法国是核心成员国，所以他们在政治上有很大的影响力。此外，欧洲央行行长拉加德女士曾任法国政府的财政部长，我相信她会努力照顾自己的国家。
So we'll see what happens but again you also see very clearly in the market a bit of a risk premium in French yields and I think there's a little bit of this in the United States as well but it's hard to say US bonnios have been creeping higher but in the fiscal deficit situation is also not good but and we do have a lot of policy that we saw in April that is making the global investor base a little bit worried but I don't think it's as obvious to me as it is in France or the UK.
我们将拭目以待，但在市场上可以很明显地看到，法国收益率中带有一点风险溢价。在美国市场上也有类似的情况，不过不太明显。美国的债券收益率一直在缓慢上升，加上财政赤字的状况也不太乐观。此外，四月份我们看到的一些政策也让全球投资者感到有些担忧。但我认为，美国的情况并不像法国或英国那样明显。
And one last reason for the global solve in bonds is obvious it's inflation. So if you look at inflation in the United States you know it doesn't seem like 2% is the target anymore it really looks like you know inflation went up and went down and now it stabilizes at around 3% and maybe that's what we'll be for the foreseeable future I don't know. Now if you have a large fiscal deficit again it's upward pressure on inflation so I think if you are someone who is holding a 30 year bond you would have to be worried about that right and what if inflation is 3% 4% for the next 30 years you know that's a you know that that that makes the 5% to 30 year bond you much less attractive.
全球债券市场的另一个显而易见的原因就是通货膨胀。如果你观察美国的通胀情况，看起来2%的目标似乎不再适用了，通胀率曾经上涨然后又下降，现在似乎稳定在3%左右，也许在可预见的未来都会是这样。我不太确定。如果财政赤字很大，那对通胀会有向上的压力。所以如果你持有一个30年的债券，你就得对这点感到担忧，万一未来30年的通胀率是3%或4%，就会让现在收益率5%的30年期债券变得没那么有吸引力了。
Now one thing that I think that inflation is probably playing a bigger role is in Japan as we all know in the GGBB market Japanese bond yields are also continuing to rise. Now again Japan also a very difficult fiscal situation and all that but inflation is more of a problem in Japan than it is in other countries in part because the Bank of Japan seems to be a bit behind. So one thing that I think really stood out to me was when Governor Wadeau over there gave a speech at Jackson Hall he basically affirmed that he thought that aging demographics is inflationary. This is something that I've been talked about for a few years I think I've also written about this but there has been a debate about whether aging demographics is inflationary there were some people who actually thought that it was deflationary since you would have lower to man.
我认为在日本，通货膨胀可能起了更大的作用。众所周知，在国债市场上，日本债券的收益率也在持续上升。我们也知道日本面临着非常困难的财政状况，但相比其他国家，通货膨胀在日本是一个更大的问题，这部分是因为日本银行（央行）似乎有些滞后。有一件事让我印象深刻，就是当日本银行行长和田在杰克逊霍尔发表演讲时，他基本上肯定了他认为人口老龄化会导致通货膨胀。这是我几年来一直在讨论的一个话题，我想我也写过相关内容，不过对此一直存在争论，有些人实际上认为人口老龄化会导致通货紧缩，因为需求会下降。
Okay fair enough. That perspective misses and what very smart people like Professor Goodart had noticed is that when you have an aging population people consume less but then they also produce nothing so you have a fundamental imbalance in supply and demand of real goods and services. Again if you talk about things like savings and stuff like that that's just another misunderstanding in macroeconomics about what savings is which is real goods and services and financing in which is money. So you have old people with lots of financial resources but those are just numbers and they're database they're not actually goods and services you don't actually save buckets of rice as you retire you have numbers to your bank account that you have to convert into real goods and services that someone else has to provide.
好的，可以理解。从这个角度来看，忽视了一个问题：像古德哈特教授这样聪明的人提到，当一个社会的人口老龄化时，人们的消费会减少，但与此同时，他们也不再生产东西，这就导致了真实商品和服务的供需基本失衡。再者，如果你谈论储蓄等问题，这仅仅是对宏观经济中关于储蓄是什么的误解。储蓄指的是实际的商品和服务，而融资指的是金钱。因此，老年人可能拥有大量的金融资产，但这些只是数字和数据库中的条目，并不是真正的商品和服务。退休之后，你并不是在储存一桶一桶的大米，而是有一个银行账户里的数字，这些数字需要转换成实际上由他人提供的商品和服务。
So as that imbalance changes a lot of rich people boomers retiring continuing to consume not producing anymore someone else has to do that work and that's inflationary especially when it comes to labor. And in Japan again they are at the avant-garde of the aging population phenomenon we see in the developed world you can see that no they're working age population peak decades ago right they've been shrinking in terms of population for some time. So they've been addressing this as creatively as they could.
随着这种不平衡的变化，很多富有的婴儿潮一代开始退休，他们继续消费但不再生产，这需要其他人来承担这些工作，而这尤其导致劳动力方面的通货膨胀。在日本，它处于发达国家老龄化现象的前沿。可以看到，他们的劳动年龄人口早在几十年前就达到峰值，并在近一段时间内持续减少。因此，他们一直在尽可能创造性地应对这一问题。
First off you have to make old people work longer than they otherwise would up so you see that labor force participation for those 65 and above has crypt higher and is seemingly plateaued at a pretty high level and they also tried to get more women to work in Japan as a more traditional society so labor force participation in women has been relatively low but picking up significantly over the past few decades but they've totally maxed out. Old people can only there's only sold many old people who want to participate in the labor market same for women and now they just don't have enough labor and so you see their wages gradually climb and that is inflationary and that just doesn't seem to go away.
首先，为了让老年人比以往工作得更长，你会发现65岁及以上人群的劳动参与率有所提高，并且似乎在一个相当高的水平上趋于平稳。此外，作为一个较为传统的社会，日本还尝试让更多的女性进入职场。过去几十年来，女性的劳动参与率相对较低，但近年来显著提升。然而，这种提升已经达到极限。参与劳动市场的老年人和女性人数有限，现在他们面临劳动力不足的问题。因此，他们的工资逐渐上涨，这具有通胀效应，而且这种情况似乎没有缓解的迹象。
If you have this inflationary demographic time bomb then obviously 30 year bondholders are going to be uneasy. Now Governor Wade also maybe he's been hanging out at the World Economic Forum or something like that then you know a good solution to this is to have immigration which of course it sounds totally reasonable but I would also point out that basically all Western countries have been trying this to a big extent it's been enormously unpopular and his cause has caused and will cause the fall of many governments and also of course in many countries has less to lead to by housing crisis because people don't really build that much but if you add to your population everyone needs to live somewhere so rents go up and you know that has hurt the living standards of many people for example in Australia and Canada the UK as well.
如果你有这样一个通胀的人口定时炸弹，那么显然30年期债券持有者会感到不安。现在，Wade州长可能在世界经济论坛上讨论过这个问题，你知道，一个好的解决方案就是引入移民，这当然听起来非常合理。但我也想指出，实际上所有西方国家都在大力尝试这种方法，但它非常不受欢迎，并且已经导致、将导致许多政府的垮台。此外，在许多国家，这也引发了住房危机，因为人们并没有真正大量建房，但如果人口增加，每个人都需要有地方住，所以房租上涨了。这已经影响了许多人的生活水平，比如在澳大利亚、加拿大和英国。
Okay so that's all I prepared for today. Next week let's focus on CPI probably not going to be super super interesting but you know if it isn't a really cool number for whatever reason if it's I think much cooler than expected you can easily see the market begin to think about a 50 basis point cut in September. Now if Chirpau knew that we had a negative print in June I'm pretty sure rates today would be lower than they are so anyway let's let's see what happens all right talk you all next week.
好的，这就是我今天准备的全部内容。下周我们来关注一下消费价格指数（CPI），这可能不会非常非常有趣，但如果因为某些原因这个数字特别好，你就会看到市场可能开始考虑在九月份进行50个基点的降息。如果Chirpau知道我们在六月有一个负增长的话，我确信今天的利率会比现在低。无论如何，我们看看会发生什么吧。好的，下周见。