China, China, China. Breaking Down China’s Tech Surge | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner
发布时间 2025-08-28 23:51:07 来源
overlaunched this individual told me, you know, every founder and every VC in China studies the west at a nauseating level. So they listened to all the podcasts, they read everything they possibly can, they study any speech, they look at the financials, and he said the west doesn't do that of China. And you know, maybe we should be, maybe we should be studying the best in the brightest of you. Hey, Bill, great to see you. Good to see you, right? Summer has just blown past. It's almost football season. Yes. How are the long horns looking this year? They rank pretty high. What's that mean? Come on. Give me the scoop. I know, I know you're over that people that know, no, but they have the dangerous starting position of being ranked number one in the country. Oh, wow. Well, any big games coming up, they play the number two team in the country this Saturday. And so we're going to find out. We're going to find out. Ah, it's real fun. Like the Buckeye country.
有个人告诉我，你知道，每个中国的创业者和风投机构都以令人厌烦的程度研究西方。他们听所有的播客，阅读所有能找到的资料，研究任何演讲，查看财务状况，而他说西方并没有这样研究中国。也许我们应该这样做，也许我们应该研究你们中最优秀的。嗨，比尔，很高兴见到你。是啊，夏天一下子就过去了，差不多要到橄榄球赛季了。是的，你认为长角牛队今年怎么样？他们排名挺高，这是什么意思？来吧，告诉我内幕消息。我知道，我知道你懂的人都懂，但他们处在一个很危险的排名，全国第一。哦，哇，那有什么重大比赛即将到来吗？他们这个星期六要对战全国排名第二的队伍，所以我们到时候就会知道结果了。啊，真是有趣，就像俄亥俄州立大学所在的地方。
Yeah, exactly. It's been really incredible. You know, I just, I just got back to Silicon Valley after, you know, being away for a few weeks, these, you know, the open AI deal, the anthropic T.O. I was just looking at these. I think these are bigger private IPOs than any public IPO done in the last five years in the tech market. Right. You had Sam say the other day, Sam Altman say, you know, two, two things can be simultaneously true. One that this is the biggest thing to ever happen in technology. But number two, that in the short run things become overheated and people can get a little bit ahead of themselves. Where are you on that? Look, there's just no denying that the amount of capital that is going into these companies earlier in their life. And the scale of hiring and their willingness to take on risk, which I think you can use cash burn. It's just a proxy for risk because you get further away from knowing unit economics.
是的，完全正确。这真是令人难以置信。你知道，我刚刚从硅谷回来，在外面呆了几个星期，关于这些事情，你知道，像OpenAI的交易，Anthropic的T.O。我刚查看了这些。我认为这些是比过去五年科技市场中任何公开IPO都要重大的私人IPO。对吧？你听到了吗？Sam，Sam Altman最近说过，两件事情可以同时成立。其一，这是科技界有史以来发生的最大事件。其二，是在短期内事情可能会过热，人们可能会有些冒进。你怎么看呢？显然，这些公司在早期阶段所获得的资本量、招聘规模以及他们愿意承担风险的程度是毋庸置疑的。我认为你可以把现金消耗作为风险的一个代名词，因为这会让你离了解单位经济效益更远。
And, and you're more threatening. You know, I think what those numbers are unprecedented. Like even against, you know, the Uberdor dash wars and all this, they're bigger than that. And so I think it's part of, we've talked about it. I think it's part of a systematic trend where investors are aware of network effects. They've watched companies that get the initial conditions right go on to really big outcomes. And they're willing to bat ahead of the curve. And as the more confident to get over more time, the more they're willing to make that bat ahead of time. And, and so, you know, it is what it is. We're seeing, you know, massive numbers. Well, I would say it's, it's a combination of two things. Extraordinary scaling. We've never seen two companies. In the case of open AI scale users and scale revenue as fast as they are.
翻译如下：
而且，你更加具有威胁性。你知道，我觉得这些数字是前所未有的。即便是与优步和DoorDash的战争相比，这些数字也更大。所以我认为这是一种系统性趋势的一部分，我们之前讨论过。我认为投资者意识到了网络效应。他们看到了那些在初始条件下正确运营的公司实现了非常大的成功，并且他们愿意提前下注。而且，随着时间的推移他们越自信，他们就越愿意提前下这个赌注。因此，事情就是这样。我们正在看到惊人的数字。我会说这是两件事情的结合。非凡的扩张。在OpenAI的案例中，我们从未见过有两家公司在用户和营收扩张上如此迅速。
But definitely you're absolutely right. The private markets are there to meet them. And we're seeing the depth and the breadth of capital and investment in the private markets. I think unlike anything we've ever seen. But, you know, we're going to save it for, yeah, save it for, let's save it. I, I, I, we're going to save it. Let's save that for another day. We're going to do something a little different today. You know, one topic that I think we, we've hit on time and time again. But we're going to, we're really just try to dedicate the show to it today. And that's China. You know, you just got back from China. It's one of the hottest in many ways most consequential. And also most controversial debates. I think in Silicon Valley and in Washington, you know, on the one hand, you have, I think, national security, economic hawks, you know, who are in this camp that we should decouple.
但你说得完全正确。私人市场确实在那儿满足他们的需求。我们看到私人市场的资本和投资的深度和广度达到了前所未有的水平。不过，我们将把相关讨论留到以后再说。今天我们要做些不一样的事情。我们会专门把这期节目献给一个我们一再提到的话题，那就是中国。你刚从中国回来，中国在很多方面都是热点，同时也是硅谷和华盛顿最重要、最具争议的讨论之一。一方面，有国家安全和经济上的鹰派，他们主张我们应该与中国进行脱钩。
It's a little bit more cold war 2.0. A great power struggle. This is the mere shimer perspective. You know, maybe in the middle, you have, you know, tech pragmatists, I guess. I might call them, you know, like Jensen Wang or Tim Cook. I'd probably put myself in this camp who thinks we have, we have to compete. We have to re-enshore industry. You probably should have some tariffs in order to achieve that. But you definitely can't decouple or ignore or, or antagonize. And then maybe on the other end, you have kind of the globalist. I don't know Jeff Sacks, Jeffrey Sacks is probably in this camp. It's free trade, open science collaboration. And, you know, there's, this is a tremendous consequence to issues around tariffs and trade issues around military issues around AI.
这有点像冷战2.0，是一种大国角力。这个观点可以称为“Shimer观点”。在中间，我们可能有一些科技实用主义者，比如黄仁勋或蒂姆·库克。我可能会把自己归入这一阵营，他们认为我们必须竞争，必须将工业重新带回国内。为此，可能需要一些关税。但我们绝不能与他国产生脱钩、忽视或对抗。然后，也许在另一端，你会看到一些全球主义者，比如杰弗里·萨克斯，他可能属于这个阵营，强调自由贸易和开放的科学合作。在关税和贸易、军事以及人工智能等问题上，这些立场会产生重大影响。
And there's this new book out by Dan Wang that I want to talk about. You know, where he really takes on the differences between the two countries. But why don't we start with, you know, this trip that you recently took, you know, you just got back from China. Why did, why did you go? You know, and frankly, especially given all the, you know, blowback you've gotten personally benchmarks gotten with respect to China. Maybe for having too soft of you on China. Give me your inspiration for wanting to go and spend as much time as you did studying China.
有一本丹·王（Dan Wang）的新书刚刚出版，我想谈谈这本书。在书中，他深入探讨了两个国家之间的差异。不过，我们不如先从你最近的旅行说起吧。你刚从中国回来。你为什么去呢？说实话，特别是在考虑到你和Benchmark在对中国问题上的立场被认为过于软弱而引发的批评之后，你去中国的动机是什么呢？请告诉我是什么激励你想要花那么多时间来研究中国。
Yeah, so I've probably been four or five times before this trip, but I hadn't been since COVID. And I've been reading, you know, about everyone that's been going. We talked about Thomas Friedman's comments from his last trip. And you hear about all the things that are different. You know, personally, my, my daughter's an Asian studies major. So she went on the trip with, with myself and my wife. And so, you know, with her studying that topic. This is, I thought it'd be a great chance for her to see things too much younger than us, but I wanted her to go around in the fact that she speaks Mandarin was helpful on the trip as well.
是的，在这次旅行之前，我大概去了四五次，但自从新冠疫情以来就没去过。我一直在读关于那些去过那里的人写的文章。我们也讨论过托马斯·弗里德曼在他上次旅行中的评论。你会听到很多关于那里变化的事情。就我个人而言，我女儿是主修亚洲研究的专业，因此这次和我以及我妻子一起去了。鉴于她在学习这个专业，我认为这是一个让她亲眼看看这些地方的好机会。她比我们年轻很多，在旅途中她会说普通话也很有帮助。
But you know, you've just said something, right? You said, this is probably the most consequential, you know, other nation. When it comes to thinking about America or thinking about our stock markets or thinking about how technology companies are evolving. And so I just wanted to learn like, like, like, why wouldn't you want to know more? I don't understand how you. If it is the most consequential relationship for a country, why you'd want to know less, right? And so I've always enjoyed going over there. I've always enjoyed learning things that I don't know. And I really wanted to see it up close and personal. One thing that was super helpful was Dan Wang, who you just mentioned, gave me an early copy of his book.
你刚才提到其他国家时，说这是可能最重要的一个国家。当谈到美国、我们的股市或科技公司发展时，这个国家对我们有着深远的影响。所以我不明白，为什么在这种情况下，你会不想多了解一些呢？如果这对一个国家来说是最重要的关系，为什么会想知道得更少呢？我一直很喜欢去那里，我一直很喜欢学习我未知的事情。我真的想亲身去看看。有一个特别有帮助的人就是你刚刚提到的Dan Wang，他早早给了我一本他的新书。
So I read it on the way over there. Tell us a little bit. Who is Dan Wang? So it's gentleman that lived over there. He lived over there during COVID. You know, he's a policy analyst. And he recently moved back to the US. He's not the Hoover Institute. Yeah. Been studying China for a long time. Looks at it through the lens of technology and innovation. And the book's titled Breakneck. And it's really talking about some of the acceleration that we've seen in building, you know, inside of China. But, but I would suggest the two things about the book that are really interesting.
所以我在去那里的路上读了这本书。能告诉我们一点吗？丹·王是谁？他是一位住在那里的人。在新冠疫情期间，他住在那边。他是一位政策分析师，最近又搬回了美国。他不是来自胡佛研究所。他长期以来一直在研究中国，从技术和创新的角度来看待它。这本书的标题是《Breakneck（奋勇向前）》，它实际上谈到了我们在中国建设中看到的一些快速发展。不过，我认为这本书有两点特别有趣。
One, he kind of uses is a mirror back on the US. So it's really about both countries. It's not just about China. And then two, he's balanced. Like he talks about the pros, you know, and the cons of what have happened over there. He starts with with this chapter that was recently republished in the Atlantic, where he highlights that the vast majority of the Politiburo are former engineers. So this is the ruling party within China. And that the vast majority of the people in Washington DC are former lawyers. And, you know, he uses that lens to say, this is why they're great at building things. And maybe why they're not so great at social things.
一方面，他用一种“镜子”的方式反射回美国，所以这其实是关于两个国家，而不仅仅是中国。另一方面，他的观点是平衡的。他讨论了那边发生事情的优点和缺点。他以在《大西洋月刊》最近重新发表的一章开始，强调说中国政治局的大多数成员都是前工程师，而在华盛顿特区，大多数人是前律师。他用这个视角来解释为什么他们在建造实物上表现出色，而在社会事务上可能不那么出色。
I think he gives the edge to having the lawyers to protecting free speech and personal rights. He did not enjoy the lockdown in Shanghai, which was fairly abrupt. He's very negative on the one child policy. And for those people that don't know the Chinese government is now trying to encourage people to have three children, not successfully. But that's the new program. So they've completely flipped from where they were. But it's a fascinating reason. It's very personal reason. You can tell that, you know, his life journey, his parents were born there and left, you know, went to Canada. And that's how he grew up in the West.
我认为他倾向于依靠律师来保护言论自由和个人权利。他对上海突如其来的封城感到不满。他对独生子女政策持非常负面的看法。对于不了解情况的人，中国政府现在正试图鼓励人们生三个孩子，但效果不佳。这是他们的新政策，与之前的政策完全相反。这背后有一个非常有趣和个人的原因。你可以看出，他的生活经历中，他的父母在中国出生，然后移居加拿大，所以他在西方长大。
And then he went back. And so he has, I think it's a really interesting lens. But it's very, very current. One of the things he really dives into, and this is something that people that I've talked to you that know China have known this for some time. But I don't think the general people understand this. So one of the things that's led to the vast build out. So we've read about high speed trains. We've read about overnight cities. We've read about their number of companies in the solar space and the EV space. One of the reasons that happens is the provincial leaders compete with each other.
然后他回去了。我认为这是一种很有趣的视角，而且非常具有时效性。他深入探讨的一个问题是，我与一些了解中国的人谈过，他们早就知道这一点，但我认为大多数人并不了解。这涉及到中国大力发展的一个原因。我们读过关于高铁的新闻，读过关于“速成城市”的报道，以及他们在太阳能和电动车领域的众多企业。促成这一切的原因之一是各省领导之间的竞争。
So the provinces are very competitive with one another, not in the same way the states are really. One of the reasons this is true is if you run a province and do well, you put yourself in really good standings to move up in the federal government. But wouldn't you say that's it? I mean, that seems to me like Gavin Newsom competing, you know, with DeSantis and Florida on, you know, who has more business friendly? Who is tougher on immigration? It seems a little bit the same way. I think it's a little bit the same way, but the difference is that because there's a singular government that's going to make choices like like in the US, if you do well as a governor, you might get elected. Got it. But in this case, it's more like divisions of a company. And if you run one well, you might get the CEO job.
各省之间的竞争非常激烈，但与美国各州之间的竞争方式不同。之所以如此，是因为如果你管理好一个省，你就有很好的机会在联邦政府中晋升。不过，这是不是就是原因呢？我觉得这有点像加文·纽森与佛罗里达的德桑蒂斯竞争，比如看谁的商业环境更友好，谁更严格对待移民。这似乎有点相似，但不同之处在于，最终做决定的是一个中央政府。在美国，如果你作为州长表现出色，可能会被选举上位。明白了，但在这种情况下更像是一家公司内部的不同部门，如果你管理得好，可能会升职成为首席执行官。
And so that competition, you know, leads to overbilled in certain cases. So there's several ghost cities that are buildings that are empty, you know, where they've built too fast. Are now facing problems, even though there were a leader in EVs and the world leader in solar panels where some of these companies need to go bankrupt and a province may not want them to because of employment issues. Right. And so those are those are. Flip, you know, two sides of a coin, you get one benefit, you get hyper competition, we talked about the thousand flowers bloom. So the federal government publishes every five years. This this mandate of the things, these are the things that are important.
因此，这种竞争在某些情况下导致了过度建设。所以，有几个“鬼城”，那些建筑空置着，因为它们建得太快了。尽管有些公司曾是电动车领域的领头羊，而且在太阳能电池板方面也是世界领先，但现在面临破产的困境，而一个省份可能因为就业问题而不希望这些公司倒闭。对吧？这些问题就像硬币的两面，你得到一种好处，就是激烈的竞争，就像我们谈到的“百花齐放”。所以，联邦政府每五年都会发布一个关于这方面重要事项的指令。
And you need to go work on. And then the province is, you know, go go at it. Like they go right against those initiatives. And that's that's how they've got taken a lead in those things. We mentioned an energy production, right. You wonder we talk about all the number of nuclear plants that they have new nuclear start solar farms, when farms dig into that bill. I think there's this general view that China's good at building things, building iPhones, but perhaps not at innovating. Right. And then, you know, Jensen Wang reminded us recently that 50% of the world's AI researchers are in China. And they're indeed innovating and not copying, you know, on the ground, when you look at the things happening in auto, when you look at the things happening in AI, when you look at that things happening in space or energy, et cetera.
你需要去处理这件事情。然后在省里，他们非常积极地推进这些项目。他们就是这样采取了领先地位。我们提到了能源生产，对吧？我们谈论到他们拥有的许多核电站、新的核电启动项目、太阳能农场和风力发电场，深入了解这些项目。我认为普遍认为中国擅长于制造业，比如生产手机，但可能在创新方面不如人意。然而，黄仁勋最近提醒我们，世界上50%的人工智能研究人员在中国，他们确实在创新，而不是复制。当你看到汽车、人工智能、太空或能源等领域的进展时，就可以感受到这一点。
How would you compare contrast as a venture capitalist, the level of rigor and innovation and excitement and enthusiasm. And investment, I guess going on against these, you know, critical future industries. Well, if you're over there, you you know that the bite dance founder is just remarkably unique. You know, Lesion, et jami is remarkably unique. And if you spend time studying those people, I just, I don't know how you would possibly think that they can't innovate. I mean, Tiktok was there first, right. And then it came here and then Reels Copy Tiktok. One thing that doesn't seem like innovation, but I was surprised by popmart is a 40, 50 billion dollar public company, which is a children's toy company that started in China and is everywhere over there.
作为一名风险投资家，你如何比较和对比在这些关键未来行业中的严格程度、创新性、兴奋度和热情，以及正在进行的投资呢？在那边的话，你会知道字节跳动的创始人是非常独特的而且他能创新。假设你花一些时间研究这些人，我不明白怎么会有人觉得他们不能进行创新。毕竟，TikTok最先在那边出现，然后才来到这里，并且Instagram的Reels还模仿了TikTok。孩子王是一个让我惊讶的公司，尽管看起来不像是创新，它是一家价值400亿到500亿美元的上市公司，一家在中国起步并在那边非常普及的儿童玩具公司。
But like just the idea that there is no innovation, you know, one, one of my favorite meetings and I promised I would protect the innocent. So I'm not going to share who it was with. But overlaunched this individual told me, you know, every founder and every VC in China studies the West at a nauseating level. So they listened to all the podcasts. They read everything they possibly can. They study any speech. They look at the financials. And he said, the West doesn't do that of China. And you know, maybe this goes back to my main motivation for going over there to learn, but that I thought that was a very provocative statement that he made, you know, and maybe we should be. Maybe we should be studying the best and the brightest over there.
这样的想法让人觉得没有创新。我最喜欢的一次会议中，有个人告诉我（我承诺会保护隐私，所以不会透露是谁），在中国，每一个创业者和风险投资者都会极度深入地研究西方。他们会听所有的播客，尽可能阅读一切资料，研究每一个演讲，查看财务信息。而他说，西方对中国并不像这样做。也许这就是我前往那里的主要动机之一，去学习。我认为他说的很有挑衅性的话让人深思，或许我们也应该这样做，我们也应该研究那里最优秀、最聪明的人。
Well, let's dive into, you know, maybe one industry, I guess, as a lens. I know you spend a bunch of time in the auto industry. Looking at all of these new entrants and I will help us understand the innovation that's happening. There are two dimensions. One on, you know, just electric vehicles. Number two on, you know, maybe autonomy. And then number three, I'm just curious like how Tesla is able to compete so effectively, you know, in a market where you have this hyper competition for electric vehicles. Yeah. So I had a number of auto experiences when I was over there. First of all, I was invited to visit BYD. This is my, they gave me a nice coat. I met with Stella Lee, who is their number one executive, I think, facing outside of China.
好的，让我们探索一下，可能从一个行业来切入。我知道你在汽车行业花了不少时间。通过观察这些新进入者，帮助我们理解正在发生的创新。有两个方向，一个是电动车，另一个可能是自动驾驶。还有第三，我很好奇为什么特斯拉能够在这个电动车竞争异常激烈的市场中如此有效地竞争。是的，当我在那里时，我有许多汽车行业的经验。首先，我受邀参观了比亚迪。他们给了我一件很好的外套。我见到了Stella Lee，她是比亚迪面向中国以外市场的最高负责人之一。
She runs all their Europe initiatives. For those people that don't know, BYD is the largest EV manufacturer in the world at about four million vehicles. They started in batteries. They, you know, they compete with Foxconn to build mobile phones. They bought Jable Circuit. You remember that old company. And they make lots of things. They make buses and subways and all kinds of different things. But they got into cars. I don't know about five to ten years ago. They have a number of models. They gave me this one. This is, you know, a very kind of high-end sports car. In fact, I met a public company CEO that was proudly showing me this was his favorite car that he drives around.
她负责所有欧洲的项目。对于那些不了解的人来说，比亚迪是全球最大的电动汽车制造商，年产约四百万辆。他们最初涉足电池行业，也与富士康竞争手机制造业，并收购了捷普电路（你可能还记得那家老公司）。他们生产很多产品，包括公交车、地铁等各种不同的东西。他们大约在五到十年前进入了汽车行业，并推出了多个车型。他们送给了我这款车，这是一款非常高端的跑车。其实，我遇到过一个上市公司的CEO，他非常自豪地告诉我这款车是他最喜欢的座驾。
They make an SUV. You can drive into the water. I don't know exactly why you want to do that. But we rode it into the water, drove around in the water and drove out. They have cars at 10 to 15 grand price point on the entry side. They've hired a European designer. It's just how they're building stuff like this on the higher end. And they're very aggressive from a cost perspective. I think BYD more than anyone on the cost side. It's not preventing them from building higher end cars as well. So that's BYD.
他们制造了一种SUV，可以开到水里。我不太清楚你为什么想这么做，但我们确实把它开进了水里，在水里转了一圈，然后开了出来。他们的入门车型价格在1万到1万5千美元之间。他们聘请了一位欧洲设计师来打造这些高端产品。他们在成本方面非常有竞争力，我认为比亚迪尤其在这方面表现突出。这并没有阻止他们同时制造高端汽车。这就是比亚迪。
I also had a chance to visit Jaume. They also gave me a car. Jaume is a super interesting story if people don't know. So I was fortunate enough to meet Ladies Jume back in 0304. But about 10 to 13 years ago he started a phone company. And that's what Jaume is. And that company is now third around the globe and handsets sold heavy in Europe, heavy in South America, not just China.
我还去拜访了Jaume。他们还给了我一辆车。Jaume的故事非常有趣，如果有人不知道的话。大约在2003到2004年，我有幸认识了Jaume女士。但是在大约10到13年前，Jaume开始了一家手机公司。这就是Jaume的故事。现在这家公司在全球的销售排名第三，手机在欧洲和南美洲卖得很好，不仅仅是在中国。
And three to four years ago, I think around 2021 he decided to build a car. And it was about the same time Apple said they were going to build a car. And in mind you, this guy was back in 03's, ran an e-commerce company called Joyo. Like he's he wasn't there’s no reason he should be able to build a phone and then build a car. So what do you attribute that to Bill? Like why? You know, when you see that, you know, again, going back to Dan Wang's book, he's like, this is an engineering culture that has built these technological ecosystems that gives rise to a higher velocity of innovation.
三到四年前，大概在2021年左右，我觉得他决定要造一辆车。大约在同一时间，苹果也宣布他们要造车。要知道，这个家伙在2003年时运营了一家叫卓越的电子商务公司。按理说，他没有理由能先造出手机然后又造车。那么，比尔，你认为这是为什么呢？你知道，当你看到这一点，回到王丹的书中，他提到这是一个工程文化，它建立了这些技术生态系统，从而带来了更快的创新速度。
You know, then we see in the United States that Dan would argue is bogged down by, you know, regulatory capture and lawyers, etc. Why do you think, you know, Jume is so successful? And by the way, let me just share with you some numbers. So so they're making a thousand of these a day. They just came out with a kind of a kind of a thousand cars a day. Yeah. In this in the factory that I went to. It's it’s they're sold out. They have like a 30 to 40 week backlog. You have to pay five grand to get on the waiting list.
你知道的，在美国，Dan 可能会说这里受到监管俘获、律师等等的影响。那么，你认为Jume为什么如此成功呢？顺便说一下，我来分享一些数据。他们每天生产一千辆这样的车。我去的那家工厂每天生产一千辆汽车。这些车已经全部售罄，订单积压30到40周。你需要支付五千美元才能进入等候名单。
The factory, this is an interesting data point. The factory makes a thousand cars a day with 2000 employees. It was highly automated. Like really highly automated. I imagine that they plan to improve that number over the next five years. Let's say they took it to a thousand employees for a thousand cars. That'd be an employee per car per day. That number is like at six in the US. And that's super interesting for a number of things. Like if you want to bring the jobs back there, but the time you get the jobs back there may not be any jobs.
这家工厂的数据非常有趣。工厂每天生产一千辆汽车，有2000名员工。这是一家高度自动化的工厂，真的非常自动化。我想他们计划在未来五年内进一步提高效率。假设他们能降低到用一千名员工每天生产一千辆汽车，那就相当于每名员工每天生产一辆车。而这个数字在美国大约是六名员工生产一辆车。这对很多事情来说都非常有趣，比如如果你想把工作机会带回那里，等工作机会真的回去时，可能已经没有工作岗位了。
Like like at one because of automation, the entire global, you know, potential for car manufacturing in five or 10 years from now could be like 400 K total. And so, you know, we just need to be really thoughtful about those things. But back to Lesion. He gave a talk in 2024. We're talking about maybe people should be watching and learning in both directions that I would encourage people to watch. It's on YouTube. It's his state of the union from 2024.
由于自动化的影响，从现在开始五到十年后，全球汽车制造的潜力总量可能仅为40万台。所以，我们需要对此进行深思熟虑。回到Lesion，他在2024年做了一场演讲，我建议大家都去看看。他在这次演讲中谈到，人们应该双向学习和观察。这个演讲可以在YouTube上观看，是他在2024年的一次年度总结演讲。
And he spends about an hour talking about his approach to building a car. And it sounded like so ridiculously. I don't like like you ask about entrepreneur. He he decided that he hadn't been driving a car for 10 years because he had had a driver. So he immediately switched seats with his driver. And then he he went through the parking lot at his company. And if there was ever a car, he had not driven. He'd leave a note on it and asked to borrow it.
他花了大约一个小时讲述他制造汽车的方法，听起来简直荒谬可笑。比如你问他作为企业家的想法。他说自己已经有10年没开车了，因为他有司机。所以他立刻和司机换了座位。然后他去了公司停车场，如果看到有任何他没开过的车就会留下纸条请求借用。
And then he would have the owner of the car, tell him what they liked and didn't like. So he claimed to drove 170 cars that way. And then he also liked B.Y.D. they hired a European designer that came in and helped him out. But for an entrepreneur who had never been in a car business to build a factory in a three year window and looked same thing was true. Our friend Omeid built a factory in Texas.
然后他会让车主告诉他，他们喜欢和不喜欢什么。因此他说他通过这种方式试驾了170辆车。此外，他也喜欢比亚迪，他们聘请了一位欧洲设计师来帮助他。不过，对于一个从未涉足汽车行业的企业家来说，在三年内建立一家工厂，看起来这也是一样的。我们的朋友Omeid在德克萨斯州建了一家工厂。
And he was under 40, just spectacular that these entrepreneurs are capable of doing these things. But it just kind of blows my mind. Like when I was being driven in this golf cart through this factory, just thinking that this person wasn't in the business three or four years ago. And people that don't know I'd encourage you to go online. And so the CEO Ford Farley, he went over there and I think had the exact same tour I did. And he insisted they ship him one back to Chicago. And he's been driving it around. And he's made some pretty extreme statements. After having experienced John me this car sells for about 40 K. But he said it's the most humbling thing I've ever seen. And he says even beyond that, their cost, their quality of vehicles is far superior to what I see in the West.
他还不到40岁，这些企业家能够做到这些事情实在是惊人。这让我感到非常震撼。当我坐在高尔夫球车里穿过这个工厂时，我在想，这个人三四年前还没有进入这个行业。不知道的人我建议你们上网看看。那么福特公司的首席执行官法利也去了那边，我想他和我做了同样的参观。他坚持让他们给他运一辆回芝加哥，并一直在开。他发表了一些相当极端的言论。体验了John这辆售价约4万美元的车后，他说这是他见过的最令人谦卑的事情。他甚至说，除了这一点，他们的生产成本和车辆质量远远优于他在西方看到的。
We are in a global competition with China. And it's not just EVs. If we do not, if we lose this, we do not have a future at Ford. You know, that that's Farley at Ford. You know, and I, by the way, I would take a pause after mentioning that to the people that are going to accuse just because I went over there to learn, accused me of somehow being like an agent for the CCP. Is that also true of the CEO Ford? You know, like why is he saying these things? Like we're just witnessing what's happening on the ground.
我们正在与中国进行全球竞争，而且不只是电动车。如果我们失败了，福特就没有未来。福特的法利提到过这一点。顺便说一下，当有人指责我因为去那里学习而被认为是中共代理人时，我会停下来想一想。福特的首席执行官也存在这样的指责吗？为什么他会说这些话？我们只是在观察正在发生的事情。
One of my observations is, and you hear this from Elon, you hear this from Jensen Huang, you hear this from Tim Cook, you hear it from Farley. It's extreme respect for the level of innovation, for the focus, for the engineering led culture that exists in China. And that to me, one of the reasons I wanted to do this pod on China is because I think it's as much a reflection about what the United States needs to do to reengineer its own society. Right. It's not enough to say that we want to re-enshore critical manufacturing.
我的观察之一是，包括埃隆·马斯克、黄仁勋、蒂姆·库克和法利在内的许多人都表达过这一点，即对中国的创新水平、专注力以及以工程为导向的文化给予极高的尊重。对我来说，我之所以想做这个关于中国的播客，部分原因是我认为这反映了美国需要如何重新调整自己的社会结构。仅仅说我们想要把关键制造业重新带回国内是不够的。
It really is about, you know, this movement around American exceptionalism, America builds. It's about making the reforms necessary, whether it's regulatory capture, whether it's the, you know, tort reform, legal reform required to frankly allow, you know, this level of innovation and recognize that we're in this global competition. You know, and there are two ways in which you can, you can approach this bill. One is we can build barriers. We can try to decouple and we can pretend the rest of the world somehow won't buy China's goods.
这其实是关于美国例外论的一种运动，强调美国的发展。重点是在于进行必要的改革，比如监管问题、侵权法改革、法律改革等，以允许这种程度的创新，并认识到我们正处于全球竞争中。应对这项法案有两种方式：一种是我们可以建立壁垒，试图与外部脱钩，并假装世界其他地区不会购买中国的商品。
You know, but if you look at it today, the US only represents about 14% of China's exports. The US only represents about 3% of China's GDP. Yeah. Right. So like we're just not that important to China. I don't want to understate like, you know, we're still very significant. But China has found a market in Europe. They found a market in Africa. They found a market in South America. Right. And it seems to me that the harder pill for the US to swallow.
你知道，但如果你看看今天，美国仅占中国出口的约14%。美国仅占中国 GDP 的约3%。是吧。所以我们对中国来说并不是那么重要。我不是说我们一点都不重要，我们仍然非常重要。但是中国已经在欧洲找到了市场，在非洲找到了市场，在南美洲找到了市场。对我来说，这对美国来说可能是更难接受的现实。
And this is where I think that, you know, I'm in the camp of those in the middle who say, we need to engage. We need to compete. There is a competition. We want to win the competition. But this is about focusing on us and when in running a faster race, we have a lot of reforms. I think a lot of occurring now. I think we're doing the type of things that we need to be doing in order to get more globally competitive, there are industries that are critical to our national security.
我认为自己属于中间立场的人群，他们认为我们需要参与、需要竞争。确实存在一个竞争环境，而我们想要赢得这场竞争。但关键在于专注自身，在提升竞争力上，我们有许多改革。我觉得现在正在发生许多这样的改革。我认为我们正在做一些必要的事情，以便在全球更具竞争力，其中有些行业对我们的国家安全至关重要。
You know, things like rare earth magnets, things like, you know, steel productions, things like pharmaceuticals, where I think it is appropriate to have both an industrial policy and a terror policy that's going to provide the incentives to those industries. Yeah. But it's, you know, to me, you know, the reflection on what I hear you saying about China when I read Dan's book is that China is putting the accelerator to the floor in terms of innovation.
你知道，比如稀土磁体、钢铁生产、制药等行业，我认为有必要同时实施工业政策和关税政策，以便为这些行业提供激励。是的。不过，在我看来，从我读丹的书中所了解到的你关于中国的观点，中国正在全力加速创新。
And it's in every single industry. It's powered by, you know, the this provincial competition you talked about is powered by people who are just, you know, naturally entrepreneurial and hard working. And there's no escaping that. And there's no putting that genie back in the box. What do you thoughts on that? Yeah. No, I think it's exactly right. I mean, B by D has a big presence in Hungary and they have a fact they're building a factory in or already have one in Mexico.
每个行业都是如此。这种你提到的地方竞争，是由那些天生具有创业精神和勤奋工作的人推动的。这是无法避免的，也不可能让这种趋势消失。你怎么看呢？是的，我完全同意。比亚迪在匈牙利有很大影响力，他们在墨西哥也在建或者已经建好了一个工厂。
And why if you're Mexico, would you not buy the 10 to 20 grand EV? Why would you buy the 50 grand one from America? It just doesn't make any sense, right? Like you're, if for any country around the world. And I could reflect this on the US as well. If you're not going to buy, you know, domestically, you should certainly buy from the low cost producer, right? It goes back to, to compare to advantage, right?
这段话的大意如下：如果你是墨西哥，为什么不购买价格在1万到2万美元之间的电动车，而要去购买来自美国的5万美元的电动车呢？这不是没有道理吗？对于世界上任何国家来说，情况都是类似的。我也可以将这个想法应用于美国。如果你不打算购买国产产品，那么肯定应该购买成本更低的产品，对吧？这与比较优势理论有关。
If you can't produce a globally competitive product and you close your import border. Your people are forced to buy a product that is overpriced and not. And so from a, from a standard of living perspective, they're worse off. Then they would be if you had opened the import door. And so I don't, you know, I'll give you another example of this. So this is the B wide, this is the Apollo competitor to Waymo. So we've, we've seen the Waymo's around Austin and San Francisco. We've written in them. This is, I've written in this now. It's a little bigger. I think a little roomier than, than, than the Jaguar for sure. It's more of an SUV. But this is on the streets. You know, and Apollo is kind of interesting. It's inside of Bidu, which is a search engine company.
如果你无法生产出具有全球竞争力的产品，并且封锁了进口边界，你的人民就不得不购买价格过高的产品。从生活水平的角度来看，他们的处境会比开放进口时更糟糕。我再举一个例子，这就是Apollo，是Waymo的竞争对手，所以我们在奥斯汀和旧金山已经见过Waymo的车，并且乘坐过它们。现在我也乘坐过Apollo车，这种车感觉比捷豹要大一点，更宽敞些，算是一种SUV。但这种车已经在街上跑了。而Apollo很有趣，它是百度公司的一部分，而百度是一家搜索引擎公司。
While people are simultaneously, what people are saying that the Waymo should be worth 170 billion inside of, of Google, you can buy shares of Bidu for zero enterprise value. It's a 30 billion market cap, 30 billion in cash on the books. And from a global perspective, I don't know why, if this is 30K, why you'd wanted to deploy Waymo's, which people say are over 150K, partially due to the, to the MIMS solid state, LiDAR advantage that China has, which we've talked about previously. So yeah, I think rest of the world is a really interesting thing to think about, you know, when you compare the two countries, because I don't think that I, I personally, I don't have a ton of data on this, but I personally don't think all the other countries in the world share the same level of hawkishness that, at least part of the members of our national government have.
在同时，人们在说Waymo在谷歌内部的估值应该达到1700亿美元的情况下，你可以以零企业价值买入百度的股份。百度的市值为300亿美元，账上有300亿美元的现金。从全球的角度来看，我不明白，如果Waymo的价值是1500亿美元，你为什么要部署Waymo，人们说这部分是由于中国拥有的MIMS固态激光雷达优势，这我们之前讨论过。所以，当你比较这两个国家时，我认为思考世界其他地区是非常有趣的，因为就我个人而言，虽然我没有很多数据，但我个人并不认为世界上所有其他国家都与我们国家政府中至少一部分成员的强硬态度相同。
And so I don't think they're going to be as afraid of their technologies. Let's think about this in the context of, you know, what you've seen, if you were giving advice to Trump on export controls, for example, Bill, you know, whether it's on, you know, AI chips or other things. You know, would you be, you know, what would your advice be? Well, I mean, I think you hit on some of it around the red tape and, you know, there's a couple different things. In certain industries where we're really behind, I would be very open-minded to JVs coming towards us. You know, for the past 50 years, you know, European car manufacturers, US car manufacturers, they open facilities in China. Some of them were forced to be 49% on 51% on.
因此，我认为他们不会对自己的技术感到那么害怕。让我们在这个背景下思考一下，比如，如果你要给特朗普提供有关出口管制的建议，比如关于人工智能芯片或其他方面的建议。你会怎么建议呢？嗯，我觉得你提到了重点之一，那就是繁文缛节，还有一些其他方面。在某些我们确实落后的行业中，我会对与我们合作的合资企业持非常开放的态度。在过去的50年里，欧洲和美国的汽车制造商在中国开设了工厂。其中一些公司被要求持有49%或51%的股份。
I'd be very open to that kind of thing. There was some positive news out this past week following Trump's engagement with Korea around nuclear, which we have talked about before. Korea can build a nuclear plant for one-fourth the price that we can. Why don't you invite them to come help us build a few in the US and see what we can learn. And I wonder if we should allow for, there's going to be, there are so many EV companies, I didn't even mention, you know, Neo and Zeaker and some of these other things. They're all innovating in different ways. But some of those are going to have financial trouble. You can see those public. You can see that the stock's not doing all that well.
我对此很开放。这周有一些积极的消息传出，与特朗普就朝鲜核问题的交流有关，这个我们之前讨论过。朝鲜可以以我们四分之一的价格建造一座核电站。为什么不邀请他们来美国帮我们建几个，看看我们能学到什么。我也在想，我们是不是应该允许，毕竟现在有这么多电动车公司，我甚至都没提到蔚来和极氪以及其他一些公司。他们都在用不同的方式创新。但其中有些公司可能会遇到财务困难，这在公开数据中可以看到，那些股票表现得不太好。
But would we let a ford or a GM buy one of those companies, right? Maybe we should. I don't know if the China government would let them. Would we let one of those companies open a JV with Ford or GM in the US? I think we should if we'd learned from it. And you could say the same thing about solar or any of these technologies where they have a lead, solar, nuclear. So I would be open minded to those types of things. I would be really big on trying to get regulation out of the way and recognizing that, that an autocratic country that has specific goals can move so much faster in any industry than you ever could in the US. Because we've created so many people whose jobs that are to block things.
但我们会允许福特或通用汽车去收购这些公司吗？也许我们应该考虑这样做。我不确定中国政府是否会允许他们这样做。我们是否应该允许这些公司在美国与福特或通用汽车成立合资企业？我觉得如果我们能从中学到东西，那我们应该这样做。你也可以对太阳能或其他中国领先的技术，如核能，表达同样的观点。所以我对此持开放态度。我非常支持去除那些阻碍发展的法规，并意识到一个有明确目标的专制国家在任何行业中的发展速度可能远远超过美国。因为我们已经创造了太多只知道阻挠工作的人。
And we're seeing I think we're seeing that type of behavior in certain states, which is why TSM season Arizona, which is why Teslas and Texas. I would give governorship here a lot of credit for reopening three mile island and what he did with I 95 like like all those things are signs of recognizing that we've built mud, you know, in our system that prevents building. And how do you get how do you start to remove that and move in the opposite direction? Specifically, you know, thinking about the tariff. So, you know, I think that the president tweeted yesterday morning if we don't get it was appearing that we're on a glide path and making a lot of progress with China. We may very well be.
我们看到在某些州出现了这种行为，这就是为什么台积电选择亚利桑那州，特斯拉选择德克萨斯州。我认为这里的州长值得称赞，因为他们重新启动了三英里岛，并且在I-95公路上所做的努力。这些都是意识到我们的体系中存在一些障碍，让建设变得困难的标志。我们如何去除这些障碍并朝相反方向前进呢？特别是考虑到关税方面，总统昨天早上发推文说，如果我们没有取得进展，看起来我们在与中国的谈判中已经取得了不少进展。
I think he tweeted yesterday morning that if we don't get rare earth magnets from China, he could raise the tariff rate to 200%. There was some talk that he was going to visit China in the first week of September. So that's, you know, right around the corner. I said on a couple pods ago, I thought that, you know, the way to understand this president is that he's a self described deal junkie. He's a pragmatist. He's not an ideologue. He seems to me that when he's talking with Jensen Wang and others, he falls in that kind of pragmatic, centrist category. He certainly wants to rebuild stuff in the United States, but at the same time it appears to me he wants to get a big deal done on China. Where do you come down again if you were advisor on the tariff side of things, Bill? Do you think he's going to get a big deal done with China? Do you think that's the right thing to do? And how do you think that influences some of the building that you're talking about?
我想他昨天早上在推特上说，如果我们不能从中国获得稀土磁铁，他可能会将关税提高到200%。有传言说他打算在九月的第一周访问中国，所以这日子也不远了。我在前几期节目中提到过，我认为，要理解这位总统，就要知道他自称是一个热衷于做交易的人，他是个实用主义者，不是一个意识形态者。在与黄仁勋等人交流时，他给我感觉是属于那种务实、中间派的类型。他当然想要在美国重建一些东西，但同时似乎也希望能与中国达成一个大交易。如果你是关税事务的顾问，比尔，你会如何看待这个问题？你认为他会和中国达成一个大交易吗？你觉得这样做是否正确？这又会如何影响你谈到的一些建设工作呢？
Okay. This is, I have zero insight. I didn't meet with anyone in the CCP or the government. So I have no idea what with their mindset. I think that's pure speculation on my point, my part. You already brought up the fact that we're a much smaller percentage of their exports than people realize and people think about. And as a result, you know, I think that they're going to be China is going to be far more biased by what they view as fair and face saving. Then they are necessarily like numeric. And so I think if we, if someone were to approach them in a pragmatic way, I think a pragmatic deal could easily get done. You know, if they are engineers, as Dan Wayne said, it's not like, you know, they wouldn't accept a pragmatic outcome. I think they would. But if we, if we're intent on being derogatory in our language.
好的。我完全没有洞察力。我没有和任何中共或政府的人见过面。因此，我对他们的心态完全不了解。我认为这纯粹是我的猜测。你已经提到，我们在他们出口中所占的比例比人们意识到的要小得多。因此，我认为中国会更倾向于关注他们认为公平和有面子的事情，而不是仅仅看数字。所以，我认为，如果有人以务实的方式与他们接触，达成一个务实的协议应该很容易。如果像丹·韦恩所说，他们是工程师，他们不会拒绝务实的结果。我认为他们会接受。但是如果我们在语言上刻意贬低对方的话……
And by the way, that's the thing that I just really don't understand that you see in Washington, you see it on that select committee of the CCP. And you see it from some of the people in Silicon Valley. I just don't understand the value of being a belligerent. But many people clearly are. I mean, they have four times the number of citizens on this earth than we do. Everybody's, you know, country of birth is something that happens to them outside of their control. So I just don't know why vilifying a billion people is a good idea. So I think it's possible. I think there's it. I think they would do a deal. And I just don't know if, if we get caught up in a silly tit for tat verbal war with the benefit of that is. And anything like that, and this is one of the point Saxomakes, Jeffrey Saxon, David, you might provoke war three.
顺便说一下，我真的不理解的一件事是，在华盛顿你可以看到，在那个中共的专责委员会上能够看到，还有硅谷的一些人也这样。我实在不明白做一个好斗者有什么价值。但显然很多人就是这样。我是说，他们拥有的公民数量是我们的四倍。每个人的出生国都是他们无法控制的事情。所以我真的不知道为什么妖魔化十亿人是个好主意。我认为这是可能的。我认为他们会愿意达成协议。我只是不知道我们是否会陷入无意义的针锋相对的口水战，看看这样做有什么好处。像这样的一切，正如萨克斯指出的一点，杰弗里·萨克斯，大卫，你可能会引发第三次世界大战。
So what do you, what do you, what's, how do you put that into your MPV calculation? Is it fair to say that, you know, I think if you look at tariffs, heading into this year, they basically doubled on China. But if we put tariffs on, you know, particular industries in order to incent building and industries in the United States, imagine it was a deal a bit like Japan bill where we also, you know, cut a deal with the Chinese that they had a trillion dollars of investment the way we have with other companies that go into the US into some of these, you know, industries. And that we perhaps get some reciprocity and reduction of barriers to some Chinese goods into China. Where, how would you handicap that? Did you get any sense or, or, you know, do you get any sense from the stuff you read in the United States as to the probability that I think it's one of the biggest influences as we look at growth in the back half of this year.
那么，你是怎么把这些因素纳入你的净现值（NPV）计算中的呢？可以这么说，如果看看今年年初的关税情况，对中国的关税基本上翻了一番。但是，如果我们针对特定行业加征关税以刺激美国国内的建筑和工业发展，想象一下这就像日本的某个协议，我们也和中国达成协议，他们在美国的一些行业中投入一万亿美元，就像我们与其他公司达成的协议那样。也许我们还可以获得互惠，让中国降低对某些美国商品的进入壁垒。你如何评估这种情况？你有没有从你在美国读到的资料中感觉到这一点的可能性？我认为这是我们在今年下半年展望增长时最大的影响因素之一。
We look at market sentiment in the back half of this year. Just curious where you stand on that. Ironically, one of the things that, I mean, like I said, I met with, I met with companies and founders and, and a few academicians, but I did, and some journalists, but I didn't meet with, with the government. But in general, there's just not any hostility from their side, from that group of people that I met with. In fact, most of those, most of those people look up to the US founders that have done great things that I've met with. And so, I think that I've met with companies that have done great things, the jobs and the e-lons, and most of them aspire to compete globally. The same way a founder in the US would like.
我们在今年下半年关注市场情绪。只是想知道你对此的看法。讽刺的是，我见过一些公司创始人和学者，还有一些记者，但没有与政府人士会面。不过，整体来说，我遇到的这些人群并没有表现出任何敌意。实际上，大多数人都非常敬佩那些取得了巨大成就的美国创始人。所以，我觉得我遇到的这些公司渴望全球竞争，就像美国的创业者一样。
And so, they would like to see all this rhetoric die down, and they would like to have the opportunity to come to the US market. They'd like the opportunity to compete in Europe and South America. Many are, Xiaomi and BYD are already are. Like I said, I think there's a pragmatic deal to do to the extent. And if, if that led to the types of programs that I just talked about, this kind of JV thing where there's a market there, a leader in, and we, you know, have that company come to the US and help us understand how to compete in some of these technologies and get to lower price points, I think that'd be fantastic.
因此，他们希望能减少这些激烈的言论，并有机会进入美国市场。他们希望能够在欧洲和南美进行竞争。事实上，已经有一些公司这么做了，比如小米和比亚迪。正如我所说，我认为在一定程度上可以达成务实的合作协议。如果这些合作能够促成我之前谈到的那种合资项目，比如某个领域的市场领先者进入美国市场，帮助我们学习如何在某些技术领域中竞争并实现更低的价格点，我认为这将是很棒的。
Do you feel like over the last 20 years, who do you think's gotten the best out of the relationship, Bill? You know, I haven't read this Apple China book. A lot of people have been talking about it, and I aim to. I think the problem with looking at it that way is, you know, you and I've talked about this finite versus infinite game is, you know, where are we in the time of the planet? And what do you think the planet's going to look like, you know, 15, 20, 30 years from now?
在过去的20年里，比尔，你觉得谁从这段关系中获益最多？我还没有读过这本关于苹果和中国的书，虽然很多人都在讨论这本书，我也打算去读。我觉得，以这种方式看待问题有点局限。你知道的，我们讨论过有限游戏和无限游戏的理念。想想看，在地球的历史长河中，我们现在处于什么阶段？你觉得15年、20年或30年后的地球会是什么样子？
I mean, I think it'd be very easy to say, you know, using your framing to say the US took advantage of Europe post World War II. And a lot of the manufacturing that existed prior to World War II shifted to America. And so you could then with that same frame say, yeah, China, you know, grew on the back of America and, you know, from, from that time. But I kind of look at it another way, which is there have been different periods where these different countries have industrialized, you know, we were a huge beneficiary post World War II because most of Asia and Europe had been blown up and there was no production capability whatsoever.
我的意思是，我认为很容易用一种说法来解释，美国在二战后利用了欧洲。很多二战前存在的制造业都转移到了美国。所以，按照同样的说法，可能也会认为中国在那之后依靠美国实现了发展。然而，我从另一个角度来看待这个问题：不同国家在不同的时期实现了工业化。二战后美国成为了最大的受益者之一，因为当时亚洲和欧洲大部分地区都遭受了战争的破坏，生产能力几乎丧失。
And a lot of the kind of glory day mindset that we have about what life and generational change should be like in the US come from that time, which is a bit unfair. And so, you know, from a global perspective, but there's a ton of hard working people over there, you know, dang job being brought capitalism underneath the Chinese government and led to the biggest, you know, increase in standard of living of any, there's like 500 million people came out of poverty as a result to that.
关于我们对美国生活和世代变迁应有模样的那种“黄金时代”的观念，很多都源自那个时期，这其实有些不公平。而从全球的视角来看，那里有很多勤奋工作的人，正是在中国政府的领导下，通过资本主义的发展，带来了生活水平的巨大提升，约有5亿人因此摆脱了贫困。
You know, when people say, oh, we should have never let the jobs go there. I don't think they really want to say, well, we shouldn't have let 500 million people out of poverty. You know, it's the same people that want to talk about aid in Africa and whatnot. So a lot of people benefited in China, but they're also hard working people and we talk a lot about meritocracies, right? And some of the same people that talk about meritocracies are anti-China.
你知道的，当人们说我们不应该让工作机会流向那里的时候，我觉得他们其实并不是真的想说我们不应该让5亿人摆脱贫困。你知道的，这些人还总爱谈论对非洲的援助等等。所以，很多中国人因此受益，但他们也是勤劳的人，我们也经常谈论精英制度，对吧？而那些谈论精英制度的人中有些却是反对中国的。
And so that's a hard thing to square because if someone's willing to work twice as hard, you know, as you and, you know, willing to study harder and all that kind of stuff, are they doing not deserve a chance at a life like you have? I think the bigger complaint is that we were naive in our trade policy and therefore we allowed huge advantages to flow to other areas. And, you know, by the way, as Dan says in his book, at the same time, we were actually moving to more of a regulatory state in the United States.
这段话的大意是：这是一个棘手的问题，因为如果有人愿意比你更努力工作、更加刻苦学习，那他们难道不应该得到一个像你一样的生活机会吗？我认为更大的问题在于，我们在贸易政策上过于天真，从而让其他地区获得了巨大的优势。同时，正如丹在他的书中所说的那样，我们实际上正在将美国变成一个更具监管性的国家。
So, you know, like our companies were getting less competitive at the same time we were helping their companies get more competitive. And there was a lot of collateral damage in the United States during that period of time. And I think right now people are saying, okay, we're moving into this age of AI, but we have to get back to driving reform in the United States that levels that plane field a bit. And so, you know, you can't undo the past, but I do think there's a recognition that, you know, we need to do the things in order to incentivize US industry to compete more effectively in a lot of these different categories.
所以，你知道，当时我们的公司变得不那么有竞争力，而与此同时，我们却在帮助他们的公司变得更有竞争力。在那段时间，美国境内受到了很多附带的损害。我认为，现在人们在说，好的，我们正进入人工智能的时代，但我们必须回过头来推动美国的改革，以便稍微平衡竞争环境。因此，你知道，过去的事情无法改变，但我确实认为，人们已经意识到我们需要采取措施，激励美国企业在许多不同领域更有效地竞争。
I think it is going to be tricky though. You know, if you say, you know, you've got 100 competitors in the EV industry in China, they're all willing to work on razor thin margins, and they're willing to sell cars into Europe at $20,000 or $25,000. Today, as Farley said, there is not a US manufacturer, Sans, perhaps Tesla, that comes anywhere close to being able to compete in that way on a global basis.
我觉得这会很棘手。你知道的，现在在中国的电动车行业中，大概有100家竞争者，他们都愿意以微薄的利润运营，并愿意把汽车卖到欧洲，售价在2万美元或2.5万美元左右。就像法利所说的，目前在全球范围内，除了可能是特斯拉之外，没有一家美国制造商能在这方面接近竞争。
One thing I've been studying a bit is I do think that the Chinese government's more has more scrutinists of monopolies. You know, I don't think that they, I think they would consider it a negative if there were seven companies worth $3 trillion or whatever. I don't think they care about market cap. I think they care more about employment and global competitiveness, which would cause you to support low margin companies. And, you know, they get to choose to make that choice.
我一直在研究的一件事是，我确实认为中国政府在垄断方面更为严格。他们可能会认为，如果有七家公司市值达到3万亿美元，那是一个负面的情况。我认为他们对市值并不关心，更关心的是就业和全球竞争力，这使他们更倾向于支持低利润的公司。而且，他们有权作出这样的选择。
I'm not judging it, but it would result in this outcome. You know, in addition to the Farley quote, the Mercedes CEO said, we need a reality check when he was talking about Chinese EVs and then Stelantis, I guess is the new name. Stelantis, who rolled up a bunch of other car companies, they said Chinese EVs are quote, possibly the biggest risk facing his car maker and Tesla. And he criticized, this is Carlos Tavarez, he publicly criticized EU tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles calling them a major trap for automakers.
我不是在评判这个情况，但结果可能会是这样的。你知道，除了提到Farley的话，梅赛德斯的CEO在谈到中国电动车时说，我们需要面对现实。然后Stelantis，我想这是这个新公司的名字。他们整合了好几家其他的汽车公司。他们表示中国电动车可能是对他们和特斯拉来说最大的风险。此外，Carlos Tavarez还公开批评了欧盟对中国电动车的关税，称这是对汽车制造商的巨大陷阱。
And this is, you know, you talk about what policy would fix things. I'll tell you what policy will make things worse. You know, you start protecting US industries by putting export tariffs on the most competitive products around the world, which I talked about earlier. Now your consumers don't have access to those price points. And so you're buying inferior goods at inflated prices. And that's going to lead to inflation and prosperity and standard of living, living levels dropping in the US. So there's a lot of variables. I would say that's generally true.
你知道的，当人们讨论如何通过政策来解决问题时，我想说的是，有些政策只会恶化情况。比如，为了保护美国的工业，你对全球最有竞争力的产品征收出口关税，这样一来，美国的消费者就无法以合理的价格买到这些产品，只能以更高的价格购买质量较差的商品。这会导致通货膨胀，美国的繁荣和生活水平将下降。影响因素有很多，我认为这种说法大致是正确的。
I think if there's a moment, you know, if there was a national strategy to improve competitiveness in an industry that had been, you know, let's just say had an unfair plane field for a period of time. Like I could see a national strategy. For example, we talked about pharmaceutical manufacturing. We talked about chip manufacturing. We talked about rare earths where you would say, OK, we're going to actually impose a tariff because these other goods are flooding. And it deprives us of the ability to build our own domestic industry.
我认为，如果有一个合适的时机，比如说国家制定一个战略来提升某个行业的竞争力，而这个行业可能在一段时间内处于不公的竞争环境中，我可以理解这种国家战略的必要性。比如我们谈到制药业、芯片制造业和稀土行业时，可以决定采取措施，比如说征收关税，因为其他国家的商品大量涌入，影响了我们建立自己国内产业的能力。
But I think we have to be very careful when you do that bill to your point. We know that unfettered competition will lead to, you know, is going to lead to much better products, much lower prices. And when you start protecting these industries, what I worry about is you protect the regulatory grift and the overlawiering that Dan talks about in his book, right? We got to face up to this fact that we have to reform some of these, you know, basic things in the United States. And that's why you see companies like Tesla moving to Texas where those reforms are moving forward.
但我认为，当你按照你的观点去制定法案时，我们必须非常小心。我们知道，不受限制的竞争会带来更好的产品和更低的价格。而当你开始保护这些行业时，我担心的是，你可能会保护到像 Dan 在他的书中提到的那些监管上的腐败和过多的法律操作。我们必须正视这个事实，我们需要改革美国的一些基础事务。这也是为什么像特斯拉这样的公司搬到得克萨斯，因为那里正在推进这些改革。
And I think, you know, I think we are making progress on that. But I, you know, I think there is a rationale for those critical national industries. But I generally agree with you that if we move to high levels of protection because we simply can't compete because it takes, you know, us, you know, 10 people in an auto plant to do what they do with one person in an auto plant, I think that's unsustainable. And I think we need to be careful with the rhetoric we throw around.
我认为，我们在这方面正在取得进展。不过，我也觉得对那些关键的国家产业是有一定理由进行保护的。但我大体上同意你的观点：如果我们因为无法竞争而采取高强度保护措施，那是不可持续的。比如说，如果我们在汽车厂需要10个人才能完成的工作，而别人只需要一个人来做，那就不行。我认为我们在讨论中需要谨慎用词。
So, so I'll give an example. So, if you read what comes out of the biggest hawks, they say, well, everyone in China just steals things and the government subsidizes everything. So, I brought that up with, I brought up the subsidization with Stella Lee, a B.Y.D. and she said, she said, if I'm getting all this government subsidy money, can you please find it and show it to me? We're a public company. Come show me the money I'm getting from the government. She just said, I'm getting nothing.
好的，我来给你一个例子。如果你看那些最强硬派的言论，他们会说，中国的每个人都在偷东西，而政府给所有东西提供补贴。所以，我把关于补贴的问题提给了比亚迪的Stella Lee，她说，如果我真的拿到了这么多政府补贴资金，能不能请你找到并给我看看？我们是上市公司，来告诉我我从政府那里得到了什么钱。她说，她什么都没得到。
And then, you know, you look at the US, like we give companies subsidies all the time to build factories. We've had EV credits for the past 10 years, both at a state and a federal level. Intel's getting money from the US government. Like, I don't understand where we're sitting. Like, it's very unclear to me, like what we're pointing at and accusing and why it doesn't, isn't the same thing here.
然后，你知道，你看看美国，我们一直给公司补贴来建工厂。过去十年里，无论在州还是联邦层面，我们都有电动车补贴。英特尔也从美国政府得到资金。我不明白我们现在的立场是什么。对我来说，我们所指责的事情非常不清楚，也不明白为什么在这里情况不一样。
And then lastly, you know, Elon's published all the Tesla patents. Okay. So, there's free IP for Ford and GM. And I would ask you, with that free IP, if we gave Ford and GM subsidies, do you think they'd immediately be competitive with China? No, sir. Okay. And if I ask 100 smart investors that question, what would they say? I think they would agree with me.
最后，你知道，埃隆已经公开了所有特斯拉的专利。那么，福特和通用汽车就能免费使用这些知识产权。我想问你，即使我们给福特和通用提供补贴，他们会立刻能与中国竞争吗？不会的。如果我问100位聪明的投资者这个问题，他们会怎么回答？我想他们会同意我的看法。
Yeah. So, the thing we're accusing them of being the reason they're succeeding, if you flipped and gave that to the US companies, none of us have confidence that would work. So, that's what I'm saying. You just got to try and get as much information as you can, learn as much as you can. So, I just want people to have a pragmatic view and an accurate view as they make decisions.
是的。所以，我们指责他们成功的原因，但如果把这个原因转移给美国公司，我们谁都不相信这能奏效。所以，我的意思是，你必须尽量多获取信息，尽量多学习。我希望人们在做决策时能持有务实和准确的观点。
I did a deep dive on your favorite product chat, TBT, 300 dollar version, deep research. And on the 24 members of the select committee for the CCP, and I think all the form of never been to China. Right. And the ones that went, it was seven years ago. I just encourage them to go visit if they're going to sit there and have such strong opinions. It'd be good if they were educated.
我深入研究了你喜欢的产品聊天工具TBT，尤其是300美元的版本，还做了深入的调查。另外，我还了解了中共特别委员会的24名成员。我认为他们中所有人都没有去过中国。那些去过的人，也是七年前的事了。我建议他们去中国看看，如果他们要发表这么强烈的看法，最好能够对中国有充分的了解。
I wouldn't want, if you were putting together a committee inside of your corporation that's going to be in charge of something, wouldn't you want the most educated people on that committee? I can already hear the criticism. Oh, yeah. You know, of course, people would say, well, we don't expect the CEO of BYD to tell you the truth necessarily about government subsidies or things like that.
"我不会想要这样的，如果你在公司内部组建一个委员会负责某个事务，难道你不希望委员会里的都是最有学识的人吗？我能预见到一些批评声，比如有人会说，当然，我们不指望比亚迪的CEO一定会如实告诉你关于政府补贴之类的事情。"
But here's the one thing I want to get across in, you know, kind of this pragmatist camp. We do have to be self reflective. Right. If we have this, if we have this view, the only reason China's competitive or winning is because they're stealing or they're subsidized, I think what that view does is it allows us to dilute ourselves into believing we don't need to get better ourselves.
但我想在这个实用主义者的立场上强调一点：我们必须自我反思。如果我们认为中国之所以具有竞争力或在竞争中获胜，只是因为他们在窃取或得到补贴，那这样的观点会让我们自欺欺人，让我们误以为自己不需要提升自身能力。
Yeah. Right. It's like if you're playing a competition and, you know, your kids out there playing in a football game or swimming race and they lose the race and they come back to you and they say, well, the only reason that person won was, you know, they cheated. You know, like you're in mice, I think is no, you've got to get better yourself. We've got to get better. How can we get better? And I think that's why holding this balanced and realistic view of China, what's actually happening on the ground? How hard right folks are working? What the level of innovation is the fact that the United States is is a diminishing part of their trade of their GDP, etc. I think that should cause us to look a little bit inward about how the hell do we accelerate? How do we build more? How do we invest more? How do we, you know, get more globally competitive?
好的。这就像你参加比赛时一样，比如你的孩子在踢足球比赛或游泳比赛中输了。他们回来跟你说，对方之所以赢是因为他们作弊了。但实际上，我们需要的是提升自己。我们得变得更好。我们要怎样提高自己？这就是为什么我们要对中国持有一个平衡和现实的看法，要了解这里的实际情况。看看那些人有多努力创新，美国在他们的贸易和GDP中所占的比重正在减少等。我认为这应该促使我们反思一下，怎么样才能加速发展？怎样才能多建设、多投资，变得更具全球竞争力？
Why does it cost us four to five times to build a vision reactor in this country? Why are we building no nuclear reactors in this country? And so the good news is this. I feel like there's a lot of momentum under this administration that was building before this administration around investing in America, getting more globally competitive, right? A lot of people want to build things here again, you know, and you got, you have somebody like Jensen Huang who says, both can be true. We need to sell H 20s and B 30s into China. We need to stay relevant in their ecosystem. But at the same time, we need to build plants in Arizona. We need to rehabilitate and invest aggressively in our own domestic chip program. Those things can be simultaneously true.
为什么在我们国家建造一个视觉反应堆的成本是其他地方的四到五倍？为什么我们国家不建核反应堆呢？不过好消息是，我感觉当前政府的政策，与之前的一些建设性势头相结合，让我们在投资美国、提高全球竞争力方面有了很大的动力。很多人希望再次在这里制造产品。就像Jensen Huang所说的，两者可以并存。我们需要向中国销售H 20和B 30产品，保持在他们生态系统中的相关性。但与此同时，我们也需要在亚利桑那州建工厂，积极投资和重振我们国内的芯片项目。这些事情可以同时实现。
And it's interesting that all of those CEOs who spend the most time competing in China, you know, they all fall in that pragmatist, realist camp, you know, in the center about, you know, the United States needs to get serious about the work that it needs to do if it wants to remain globally competitive. With that said, Bill, can we shift for a second? I want to, you know, look at this through the lens of kind of just what's going on in AI. You know, I know you spend a bunch of time over there looking at the key players on the model side on the, you know, thinking about the chip side, et cetera. So maybe just round out that other conversation and then shift there.
有趣的是，那些在中国市场竞争最激烈的CEO往往属于实用主义和现实主义者的阵营。他们认为，美国如果想保持全球竞争力，就必须认真对待自身需要完成的工作。比尔，我们可以稍微转换一下话题吗？我想从人工智能领域的角度来审视一下当前的情况。我知道你花了不少时间在那边研究模型方面的关键角色，以及芯片方面的思考，等等。所以也许我们可以先总结之前的对话，然后再转向这个话题。
Yeah, so, so one thing, one thing to note that that isn't in the Dan Wang book, but I think that we can infer from it. The government every five years publishes this five year plan. The last one was the 14th, and I think the next one will be coming out soon. I would encourage everyone to read that because that's where they tell the provinces what's important to work on. And that historically is led to these areas where they're investing heavily and they might make a mistake in what they say to focus on, but when they've gotten a right, it's led to a lot of global competitiveness. So I would watch that. But in the in the last one in the 14th, they literally talked about open source. And so, you know, I'll put a link in. I found a document that covers all the history of Chinese open source, but it goes back 20 years. This isn't an overnight thing. And our government recently said they were pro open source in this new AI executive order, but, but, but this was kind of pushed out to the provinces.
好的，有一件事情要注意，虽然它没有在Dan Wang的书中提到，但我认为我们可以从中推测出来。政府每五年会公布一个五年计划。上一个是第十四个，我猜下一个应该快要出来了。我建议大家去阅读这个计划，因为这就是政府告诉各省哪些领域是工作重点的地方。历史上，这些计划往往引导政府在某些领域进行大量投资，尽管有时可能会在聚焦的方向上犯错，但一旦方向正确，就可以带来很强的全球竞争力。所以我会关注这一点。在第十四个五年计划中，他们明确提到了开源。所以，我会放一个链接，我找到了一个涵盖中国开源历史的文件，这件事可以追溯到20年前，不是一夜之间的事。我们的政府最近在新的AI行政命令中表示支持开源，不过，这更像是推进到了各个省份去执行。
And so two things I would say about the I market there. First of all, no one's particularly concerned about there being a monopolist because there's so many open models. So there's in general, I think from the entrepreneur's perspective, a more relaxed, you know, opinion, because they can work on products and they can take in all these different models. I think I think deep sea has the most kind of intellectual brand because of how that arrived and almost the national pride that came along with it. Quinn is a really important player mainly because Alibaba leads in the cloud market over there. They're about us. You may know you and your team may know more of these stats than me, Brad, but I think they're like a 70% player in the cloud market.
关于市场，我想说两点。首先，没有人特别担心会出现垄断者，因为有很多开放模型。总体来看，我认为从企业家的角度来说，他们的态度更为轻松，因为他们可以开发产品，并且可以采用所有这些不同的模型。我认为深海科技拥有最具影响力的品牌，因为它的出现和随之而来的国家自豪感。Quinn是一个非常重要的参与者，主要是因为阿里巴巴在云市场上的领先地位。你和你的团队可能对这些数据比我了解得更多，Brad，但我认为他们在云市场的占有率大约是70%。
And so that just gives them a natural place to deliver models from that makes it important. And then on the consumer side, you know, bite dance, it seems to be the company to watch on anything consumer and they already have an app. If someone said whose app is closest open a eyes in China, it's already an app from bite dance that's out there. On the watch list, people are very curious if Tencent's going to do something, you know, obviously they we chat still extremely important in China. And so that's a great asset if they were to bring something, but they haven't been particularly aggressive. And then Jaume, because of Lesion, everybody wonders what he might do. And you know owning the phone and that big a market share might give you some advantages when we've talked about that with the US players.
这样一来，这些公司就有了一个自然的模型交付平台，这一点非常重要。在消费市场方面，字节跳动似乎是值得关注的公司之一，他们已经有一个应用。如果有人问在中国哪个应用最接近OpenAI，他们可能说字节跳动已经有一个这样的应用。在观察名单上，人们非常好奇腾讯会不会做点什么，毕竟微信在中国仍然非常重要。如果他们推出新产品，这会是一个巨大的资产，但是他们并没有表现得特别积极。此外，由于Lesion的原因，大家也在猜测Jaume可能会有什么动作。拥有手机和庞大的市场份额可能会带来一些优势，就像我们讨论美国那些公司的时候一样。
So that's kind of that's what I would say is the state of affairs over there on when it comes to AI on the model layer. And then the middle layer is do you think there's an acknowledgement or a belief that they're basically they have the tools they have the chips, you know, with Huawei, et cetera, to be competitive like is there a sense in China that, you know, when code is going to be competitive with cloud code. You know, we know they're all open source. Do you think there is a sense that they all say at the frontier. Like I had that sense before I went just because of the number of competitive open source models in the way they can trade train each other. You just have a much more natural environment to have this kind of hyper competition that we talked about in EVs or solar, like having that many open source providers gives you that I would say even maybe more because of the way the models can help one another at least in the EV case like you can't take someone else as EV and make yours better, but here you can.
在谈到人工智能的模型层面时，这就是我对那边情况的总结。然后是中间层面，你是否认为，在中国，他们基本上已经承认或相信他们具备竞争所需的工具和芯片，比如华为等公司，能够在这方面与其他国家抗衡？比如在云代码的竞争方面是否存在一种信念，中国的代码能够与之竞争？众所周知，它们都是开源的。你是否认为他们有一种感觉，他们处在前沿？我在去之前就有这种感觉，因为有大量的开源模型竞争，它们之间可以相互训练，形成一个自然的环境，促进我们在电动车或太阳能领域谈到的那种激烈竞争。拥有那么多开源提供商甚至可能更有优势，因为模型之间可以相互帮助，而至少在电动车的情况下，你无法拿别人的电动车来让自己的更好，但在这里你可以做到。
Can we talk about that just open for a second. Let me double click on this. You know, obviously we saw open AI open source, you know, a model a few weeks back. Now we have comments this week out of Elon. They're they're getting back to more aggressively open sourcing. You've obviously got meta already, you know, with llama out there on the open source front. And I saw you at a tweet yesterday, maybe bill just on you are surprised that Google had not taken a more aggressive position with respect to open sourcing Gemini. Do you think they will? Why do you think they haven't and why do you think it would be the right thing for them to do that? Well, I had some replies to that tweet to get into this, but this goes back to where you started the podcast.
我们可以就此稍微谈谈吗？让我详细说明一下。显然，我们几周前看到OpenAI发布了一个开源模型。这周，埃隆也发表了评论，他们准备更积极地参与开源。当然，Meta已经开始在开源领域推出Llama。我昨天看到你发了一条推文，可能是比尔提到你对谷歌在开源Gemini方面没有采取更积极的立场感到惊讶。你认为他们会采取行动吗？你觉得他们为什么还没有这么做，以及为什么你认为这样做对他们是正确的？我在那条推文中已经收到了一些回复，但这其实也回到了这个播客的起点。
I don't think public companies understand or I don't think they've internalized and really come to terms with the fact that the private markets are willing to bet so aggressively on these new players. And I, you know, we're talking about AI today, but this could be true of any new disruption in the future when I was going through the Uber lift wars and you know, we'd be in board meetings and look at these burn rates and all this money we're spending you talk about whether or not to raise another round and certainly thought about doing what Sam did and trying to talk capital out of the market, which never seems to work. But you get frustrated with that game and you want to, you know, but but you're dealing with business decisions that you would never see in another industry.
我觉得上市公司并没有真正理解或接受这样一个事实，那就是私人市场愿意如此积极地押注这些新兴企业。今天我们在谈论人工智能，但未来任何新的颠覆性创新都可能会出现类似的情况。回想我经历过的Uber和Lyft之间的竞争，我们在董事会上讨论烧钱的速度以及所有这些大额支出，还有是否要筹集新一轮资金。当时我也确实考虑过像Sam那样从市场中获取资金，但似乎总是不成功。这让人感到沮丧，但你要知道，你正在处理的是其他行业从未见过的商业决策。
And so getting back to the question you ask, you know, I just don't know like if everything's at stake for Google, should they be willing to lose five or 10 billion dollars because the startup that's attacking their space is willing to lose that amount of money. And I think it's an ironic situation we're in where the private markets and the startups are willing to be more aggressive, perhaps and more risk seeking than the public incumbents are. And I think, you know, our friend Rich Barton took a lot of heat at Zilla when he when he chased open door, but he was faced with a situation where a private company was claiming it was going to out innovate him and disrupt his game. And some of Wall Street had come to believe that.
回到你问的问题，我也不太确定，如果对谷歌来说一切都处于危险之中，他们是否应该愿意损失五到十亿美元，因为攻击他们领域的创业公司同样愿意承担这样的损失。我认为这种情况很讽刺，因为私有市场和创业公司可能比那些已经上市的老牌公司更具侵略性和冒险精神。我想，我们的朋友Rich Barton在Zillow的时候，因为追赶OpenDoor受到很多批评，但他当时面临的局面是，一家私人公司声称会超越他的创新并扰乱他的市场，而华尔街的一些人也开始相信这一点。
And so he engaged and he played that game on the field. Now that eventually turned out to not be true. And and maybe if he hadn't engaged competitively with open door, maybe they wouldn't have kind of tripped and fallen. But but it was probably the right thing to do. And I don't think a lot of public companies think that way. Now Google historically when it came to AWS open source Kubernetes and went after him when it came to Apple, the open source to Android. And certainly some of their lower models are open source and competitive on open router. But maybe they should be more aggressive even still because of what it's at stake. That was that was my point.
于是他参与其中，并在场上与他们竞争。不过，结果证明并非如此。如果当初他没有积极参与与Open Door的竞争，那么事情可能不会出现现在的问题。但也许这样做是正确的。我认为很多上市公司并不这样思考。从历史上看，谷歌在应对AWS时开放了Kubernetes的源代码，并在对抗苹果时开放了Android的源代码。某些低端型号也是开源的，并在开源路由器上具有竞争力。但考虑到当前面临的局势，他们可能还需要更加积极。这就是我的观点。
Okay, shifting back real quick and you know, we'll round up here in China. You know, the VC market in China, we just rewind the clock, you know, not that long ago bill. And you know, there was a lot of US enthusiasm. There were a lot of US firms investing directly in China. Right from Sequoia to GGV, a lot of those firms either shut down or spun off their operations. You know, in China. Benchmark has taken a lot of, you know, heat for doing an investment, man, is that, you know, I've read benchmark explain really isn't even, you know, based in China. What do you see, you know, when you were there, do you see a lot of US investors actively investing on the venture side in China and then what is the Chinese venture ecosystem look like?
好的，我们快速回到中国这边。你知道，中国的风险投资市场，如果我们把时间倒回到不久前，美国对这个市场非常热情。很多美国公司直接在中国投资，从红杉资本到纪源资本，这些公司中很多在中国的业务要么关闭，要么分拆。Benchmark因为在中国的投资而受到了不少批评，但我看到Benchmark解释说它其实并没有真正地在中国立足。当你在中国的时候，你看到了很多美国投资者积极地在中国进行风险投资吗？那么，中国的风险投资生态系统现在是什么样的？
So a couple different things. So first of all, there's a real lack of Westerners of for all my trips. This was the, the fewest Westerners that I've ever seen. And the high end hotels and the high end restaurants were fairly empty. And I think that it just has to do with the thawing of the relationship that's caused less travel from Westerners. The VC market is in a bit of a lull because when, when these policies all changed and when, you know, the Jack Ma thing happened when DD got pulled back from the US markets when the for profit education companies got taken out and when, you know, we chat went, I mean, a 10 cent went flat for a couple of years because of games reforms, all those things took a lot of air out of the system.
有几件事情值得注意。首先，这次旅行中西方游客真的很少，这是我见过的最少的一次。高档酒店和餐厅几乎没有什么客人。我认为这可能与西方国家间关系逐渐缓和有关，导致西方游客减少。风险投资市场也有些疲软，因为政策变化、马云事件、滴滴从美国市场撤回、营利性教育公司被取缔以及腾讯因游戏改革停滞等事件，都对市场造成了影响。这些事情让市场上似乎减少了很多活力。
And caused a lot of people to reconsider. And then you also had, and I don't even know if this is more led by the US government of China government, you had splitting of the venture capital firms, Sequoia split and half GGV split now. And, and so there are much fewer Western dollars available to invest in China. And so, you know, there are a few firms that have stayed, you know, Neil Chinat Hongshan had raised a ton of money right before all this happened.
这导致许多人重新思考。而且，不管这是更多由美国政府还是中国政府主导的，许多风险投资公司进行了拆分，比如红杉资本拆分了，GGV也拆分了。因此，现在可用于投资中国的西方资金少了很多。不过，还是有些公司留了下来，比如Neil Chinat的弘尚资本就在这一切发生前募集到了大量资金。
He's very active. Has a huge staff of people. Anna Fang and Zenfun, which is an angel group of very active and IDG is highly present and has been active. But that's only three firms, you know, and compared to where things were six years ago when every one of our competitors in the venture industry were making an annual trip. It's, it's kind of night and day. And then there's not that many R&B dollars available to the venture market.
他非常活跃，有一个庞大的团队。安娜·方和Zenfun是一个非常活跃的天使投资团体，IDG也非常活跃并且存在感很强。但你要知道，这仅仅是三个公司。相比六年前，我们在风险投资行业的每一个竞争对手每年都会来一次，如今的情况可谓天差地别。并且现如今风险投资市场上可用的人民币资金并不多。
A lot of the, you don't have the foundations and, and university endowments that you do here. And the billionaires that have made wealth typically are looking to diversify offshore. And so you just don't have a lot of R&B dollars seeking a home. And now you have the provinces entering the investment space, which is an uncomfortable reality for some of the VCs. They're asked, I hear they're asking for terms that you and I would consider non starters.
在很多情况下，你在这里找不到那种基础设施和大学捐赠基金。而通常已经积累财富的亿万富翁们则倾向于将资金多元化投资到海外。因此，市场上并没有很多R&B（研发和技术创新）资金在寻找投入的机会。而现在，各省开始进入投资领域，对一些风险投资公司来说，这是一个令人不安的现实。据说，他们提出的投资条件是我们都觉得不可能接受的。
You know, and so that's, it's all a little bit messy. It's funny because it's simultaneously with some of these markets, EVs, autonomous robotics where they're where the country is doing extremely well. So I found those things off a little bit. And it's very, everyone's very aware that if the government decides your company is doing something that's not in the best interest of the citizenry that that's going to get corrected.
你知道，这就有点复杂。有趣的是，在一些市场，比如电动车和自动化机器人领域，这些方面的国家表现非常出色。这让我有点困惑。而且，大家都很清楚，如果政府认为你的公司做的事情不符合公民的最佳利益，那就会得到纠正。
And so there's a phrase, I don't know if it was in Dan's book or I read somewhere else called don't be the tallest tree. That's a problem for you. Exactly. Yeah, in that regard, do you think, you know, that's what I was I was wondering, you know, there seems to be a ton of entrepreneurial activity, despite the fact that, you know, VCs have retreated that you have companies that are not going public and have been shut down.
有一个说法，我不记得是在丹的书里看到的还是在其他地方读到的，叫做“不要成为最高的树”。这对你来说是个问题。没错。在这方面，你觉得呢，这正是我在想的。尽管风投在退缩，一些公司未能上市并且已经关闭，但仍然有大量的创业活动。
You have entrepreneurs that have gone missing. It doesn't really seem to have diminished, you know, the activity around, you know, around AI, as we were talking about. Or startups or entrepreneurs and in fact, a lot of the locals heavily dispute that financial times graph that was going around about the number of startups that said it just mismeasured the whole thing.
你有一些企业家失踪了。这似乎并没有真正减少我们刚才谈论的关于人工智能的活动，或者说与创业公司或企业家相关的活动。事实上，很多当地人强烈反对《金融时报》流传的关于初创企业数量的图表，认为它对整个情况的测量有误。
And so no, I don't sense that there's any lack of enthusiasm from entrepreneurs and towns like Shinson, where, where DJI and B.I.D. and Huawei are all located. I mean, that town is a new young 20 million people, highly energetic, you know, town with lots of stuff happening, you know, lots of stuff. You said something to me, well, before we wrapped, is there anything else, anything else that we didn't cover that you want to, you want to hit on?
所以，我并不觉得在像深圳这样的城市中，企业家们缺乏热情。这里是大疆、比亚迪和华为等公司所在地。这座城市有2000万年轻且充满活力的人口，充满了发展机遇和各种活动。在我们结束前，你是否还有什么想要讨论或补充的内容？
There's two things I would hit on, you know, you talked about innovation. One thing, one thing that you notice very quickly as a westerner is no one takes credit cards. They used to like the last time I went, but it's almost 100% we chat pay and I'll like pay. And if you can't get those to work on your phone, you're screwed, man, you can't pay for anything.
有两件事情我想说一下，你提到了创新。作为一个西方人，有一件事你会很快注意到，那就是几乎没有人用信用卡付款。上一次我来的时候还是可以的，但现在几乎都是用微信支付和支付宝。如果你的手机上不能使用这些支付方式，那你就惨了，什么都付不了款。
What's the, what's the government's position on crypto? I don't know the answer to that question. I don't, but, but because they've been using these apps for so long, you've started to see incremental innovation around that. So most restaurants you go to not to very high in ones, there's a QR code on your table that QR code not only represents the restaurant, but it represents the table.
“政府对加密货币的态度是什么？”对此我并不清楚答案。但是，由于人们使用这些应用程序已经有一段时间了，你开始看到围绕这些应用的逐步创新。所以现在大多数餐厅——当然不是那些高档的餐厅——你的餐桌上都有一个二维码。这个二维码不仅代表了餐厅，也代表了特定的餐桌。
And you can order from that, you can pay from that. Like, like, so if you are done eating, I want to pay and leave you just scan and pay and go, you walk right out and, you know, we're far away from that in the US, that amount of automation around payment. And it's just interesting and that goes from, you know, the high end hotel and restaurant will take we chat pay and the street vendor will take it.
你可以用那个系统点餐和付款。比如说，当你吃完饭想要付账离开时，只需要扫一扫就可以支付，然后直接走人。在美国，我们在实现这种支付自动化方面还有一段路要走。这种现象很有趣，从高档酒店和餐馆都接受微信支付，甚至路边摊也是这样。
Right. It's, it's universal. So that's one thing. The other thing that I would just mention very recently, China announced something called the K visa. And one of the, one of the things that's happened recently because of, I'd say an increased agitation between the two countries is there been a number of very recent policies in America that are impacting skilled immigration. Especially at the university level. And I did hear stories over there of groups of 50 or 100 PhD students who had been admitted into a university and we're now being told they can't attend.
好的，这确实是一个普遍现象。还有一件事，我想提一下的是，中国最近宣布了一个叫做K签证的政策。最近，由于我认为两国之间的紧张关系加剧，美国出台了一些很新的政策，这些政策对技术移民产生了影响，尤其是在大学层面。我确实听到了一些故事，讲的是有50到100名博士生已经被大学录取，但现在被告知不能入学。
And you and I and everyone have talked about skilled immigration and how that's been kept flat in the US. And now, you know, at least with regard to China, we're starting to put up blockers and on top of that, you've seen these other charts were like 50% of the I researchers in America are Chinese. And so that that's something that's super interesting to watch. And this K visa thing, which they've never done before, says, if you are studying technology, you know, I don't know the exact rules. You don't even have to have a job.
您、我和大家都谈论过技术移民的问题，以及这种移民在美国一直保持平稳的现状。现在，至少对于中国来说，我们开始设置更多的障碍。此外，您可能已经看到过其他一些图表，显示美国有大约50%的人工智能研究员是华人。这是一个非常值得关注的现象。而这次的K签证政策是一项以前从未有过的措施，据说如果你在学习技术专业，具体规则我不是很清楚，甚至不需要找到工作就能申请。
So this isn't like in the US, you need a, you're welcome to come. They're going to give you a visa. So China's basically inviting everyone to come to their university systems from around the globe. I don't know how successful they'll be. I don't know if Europeans will go there. But it's an interesting thing to see. Again, it's just a reminder to me like I continue to think that the US is in an incredible position on a global basis, an incredible position, visa, V China. But decisions matter.
所以，这和在美国的情况不太一样，你可以来，中国会给你签证。基本上，中国正在邀请全球各地的人去他们的大学系统。我不知道他们会有多成功，也不知道欧洲人是否会去那里。但这确实是一个有趣的现象。再次提醒我的是，我一直认为美国在全球范围内处于一个非常有利的位置，特别是相对于中国来说。但是，决策是很重要的。
And you know, we talked about stapling a green card, every, you know, every diploma as you know, the president did as part of the presidential race. And certainly I think there's ample opportunity for upside to accelerate, to attract, to build in the US. And I hope that one of the takeaways of this conversation, the many conversations we ought to have. And that's why I think being overly dogmatic leads us astray is we got to reflect on the things that we can be doing better to run a faster race ourselves.
你知道，我们谈到过在每个毕业证书上"附送"绿卡，就像你知道的，总统在总统竞选中所提到的那样。我认为，美国有很多机会可以加速发展，吸引人才，进行建设。我希望这是这次谈话，以及我们应该展开的众多对话之一的收获。因此，我认为过于教条会让我们偏离轨道。我们需要反思自己可以改进的地方，以便让我们自己跑得更快。
Right. And I've heard you say this before, you know, the old quote from the godfather never hate your enemies. You know, it clouds. It affects your judgment. And I think there's a lot of that going on in Silicon Valley and other places that, you know, we're going to be a lot better off if we're very pragmatic about there's no slowing down in China. They're going to be there in AI. They're going to build chips at Huawei. They're going to build models at deep seek.
好的。我以前听你提到过《教父》中的一句名言：永远不要憎恨你的敌人，你知道的，这会影响你的判断。我认为在硅谷和其他地方，这样的事情很多。如果我们非常务实地看待问题，我们会过得更好，因为中国的发展不会放缓。他们会在人工智能领域崭露头角，会在华为制造芯片，也会在 Deep Seek 建立模型。
And the way to beat them is not to, you know, try to cut them off at the knees. We don't need to make it easy on them. But the United States needs to accelerate our race. And I think by if we focus too much on how do we slow down China, we take the eye off the ball on how to accelerate our own race. So it's fun spending one of these just digging deep on a particular topic. It sounds like an incredible trip.
打败他们的方法不是试图从根本上削弱他们。我们不需要让他们的道路更轻松，但美国需要加速自己的步伐。我认为，如果我们过于专注于如何阻碍中国的发展，就会忽视了如何加快我们自己的进步。因此，花时间深入探讨一个特定的话题也是很有趣的。这听起来像是一次令人难以置信的旅程。
Yeah. And I would just echo what you said. Like, like, especially just on learning. Like my, my main point to anyone dissensionist topic would be just make sure you have the exact right information as you then go to make decisions, especially around policy. And, you know, talk read, read what these global car CEOs are telling you they've been over there. They're seeing it with their own eyes. They don't, they don't have a reason to be as candid as they're being necessarily, but they are.
好的。我想重申你刚才说的话，特别是在学习方面。对于任何在这个话题上有不同意见的人，我的主要观点是，在做决策时，特别是涉及政策时，一定要确保你拥有准确的信息。而且，阅读这些全球汽车公司CEO们所说的话，他们亲眼看到了实际情况。尽管他们没有必要这么坦率，但他们确实如此。
And then read Dan Wings book. I think it's fabulous. Like Tyler Collins said it might be one, it might be the best book of the year. It's very well written and and enjoy to read. And I would encourage everyone to go pick it up. It's called break neck. And I think it's out now today. Now, you literally can go on chat GPT and just ask it, you know, what your favorite CEO, you know, what's Jensen Wang think about the level of competition in China?
接着读丹·温的书。我觉得这本书很棒。就像泰勒·柯林斯说的，它可能是，也是今年最好的书。书写得很好，读起来很享受。我鼓励大家去买来看看。书名叫《Break Neck》，我想它今天已经出版了。现在，你实际上可以上ChatGPT，问问它你最喜欢的CEO，比如说黄仁勋对中国的竞争水平有什么看法。
What's Tim Cook think? What's Elon Musk think? The reality is the people who spend the most time on the ground in China have the most respect for, you know, the innate, you know, capabilities and ongoing competition that we're going to see with China. And, you know, and I thought that Dan had a really balanced view at the end, which is, you know, we shouldn't go out of our way to make it really easy on China, but at the same time, we got to engage. We got to be, you know, pragmatic.
蒂姆·库克怎么想？埃隆·马斯克怎么想？事实上，那些在中国待得时间最长的人，对中国本身的能力和我们将面临的持续竞争有着最多的尊重。我认为，丹的看法非常平衡，那就是我们不应该刻意让中国占便宜，但同时，我们也必须互动。我们需要保持务实。
We can't stick our head in the sand. And we have to know that we got to reform ourselves. We got to run a faster race ourselves. Bill, it's great seeing you. I'm glad we're kind of getting back in the swing of things and look forward to continuing the conversation. As a reminder to everybody, just our opinions, not investment advice.
我们不能逃避现实，我们必须认识到自身需要改革。我们自己必须跑得更快。比尔，很高兴见到你。我很高兴我们逐渐适应恢复过来的节奏，并期待继续我们的对话。提醒大家，这只是我们的看法，不是投资建议。