Markets Weekly August 9, 2025

Hello my friends, today is August 9th and this is markets weekly. This past week we saw the major equity indexes basically completely recouped their losses from last Friday with a NASDAQ even making a new all-time high. However, overall I thought the markets were, you know, it was another boring slow summer week, but we did have interesting developments in trade and in politics. So today let's talk about three things. First off, let's talk about the big winners and losers in trade the past week and also some foreshadowing of Trump's upcoming chips policy which could be unveiled as soon as next week. Secondly, some new developments on the race to be the new Fed chair. It seemed like Governor Waller is emerging as a favorite, but new names are being fluted as well. And lastly, let's have a little bit of an update on the non-form payroll sprint we talked about last week where a former BLS commissioner, a Trump appointee, discusses why they are such big and frequent revisions.

你好，朋友们，今天是8月9日，这里是市场周报。过去一周，我们看到主要股票指数基本上完全收复了上周五的跌幅，其中纳斯达克甚至创下了历史新高。然而，总体而言，我觉得市场就是一个无聊的慢速夏周，但在贸易和政治方面确实有一些有趣的发展。所以今天我们来谈三件事情。首先，我们来聊聊过去一周贸易中的大赢家和大输家，还有一些关于特朗普即将发布的新芯片政策的预兆，可能就在下周公布。其次，关于新任美联储主席的竞争也有一些新的进展，看起来沃勒州长正浮现为热门人选，但也有新的名字被提及。最后，我们更新一下上周讨论过的非农就业数据修正问题，前BLS局长、一位特朗普任命的官员解释了为什么这些数据修正如此频繁和幅度巨大。

Okay, starting with trade. Now the big winner in trade policy the past week is obviously Apple. If you look at this chart of Apple stock price, you'll see why. Past week Apple stock was basically up over 10%, one of its largely weekly gains in many years. Now Apple was a huge stock, so obviously when it goes up by over 10%, it's going to drag the major indexes up as well. So if you're happy with the major indexes, a lot of it has to do with Apple. Now Apple stock hasn't actually been doing that well the past few months, and it's easy to see why. AI has been older rage, but Apple just doesn't seem to be very good at AI. In fact, it doesn't seem to have had a revolutionary product in some time. To be clear, iPhones sell very well. Everyone still loves their iPhones, but it's not really a growth market. And some people think that the good selves they've had the past quarter could in part be due to people buying iPhones in fear of tariffs.

好的，先从贸易说起。在过去的一周，苹果无疑是贸易政策中的大赢家。如果你看看这张苹果公司股价的图表，你就会明白为什么。在过去的一周里，苹果的股价基本上涨了超过10%，这是它多年来最大的单周涨幅之一。由于苹果是一只非常大的股票，所以当它上涨超过10%时，显然也会带动主要指数的上涨。因此，如果你对主要指数的表现感到满意，很大程度上要归功于苹果公司。然而，苹果的股价在过去几个月里表现并不理想，这个原因很容易看出。人工智能一直备受关注，但苹果似乎在人工智能领域表现不佳。事实上，苹果似乎好长时间没有推出革命性的新产品。需要明确的是，iPhone的销量依然很好，每个人都依然喜爱他们的iPhone，但这并不是一个增长型市场。还有人认为，苹果上季度的良好销量可能部分是因为人们担心关税而抢购iPhone所致。

So why did Apple stock jump so much the past week? Well, it's all credit goes to Tim Cook. Now Apple CEO Tim Cook visited the White House in paid respects to the president. And had a press conference with him and Tim Cook basically promised to invest a gazillion dollars in making iPhones in the US somehow someday. And also of course gave the president a very nice gift, one of its kind, a glass and gold sculpture that could be placed on the rest of the desk. And of course, we all know the president really likes gold. And so these two things seem to have pleased the market gods and sent Apple stock up a lot. Of course, you could also say that spending a lot of money to build factories in America, where you will have to produce at higher costs is good for jobs in America, good for the American economy, but it might not be the best for your profit margins, but maybe that's something for another day.

那么，为什么苹果股票在过去一周大涨呢？这一切的功劳都归于蒂姆·库克。苹果现任CEO蒂姆·库克前往白宫拜访总统，并在新闻发布会上承诺未来将投入巨资在美国生产iPhone。此外，他还送给总统一件独特的礼物——一座由玻璃和黄金制成的雕塑，可以放在书桌上。我们都知道，总统对黄金非常喜欢。这两件事似乎让市场非常满意，因此苹果的股票大幅上涨。当然，也可以说，在美国建造工厂并增加本地就业对美国经济有利，虽然生产成本会更高，但这对利润率可能不是件好事。不过这可能是值得日后关注的话题。

Now the big loser of the week has to be Switzerland. Now Switzerland, unlike many of the other developed countries, has actually been slapped with a very sizable tariff, Trump put 39% tariffs on imports from Switzerland. And that's kind of a big problem for Switzerland because they are a country that is heavily dependent on trade selling a lot of things like chocolates and gold watches and cheeses and so forth. Now by all accounts, the Swiss president is a titan of crack, very confident person, also very serious, basically very Swiss. And it seems like that is making it difficult for her to negotiate with the Trump administration. Now Switzerland is already because they're very open and calm, they doesn't actually have that much protection. So you're asking Switzerland to lower their tariffs, well, they'll say that we don't really have that many tariffs.

这周最大的输家非瑞士莫属。与许多其他发达国家不同，瑞士实际上被征收了一项非常高的关税。特朗普对来自瑞士的进口商品征收了39%的关税。这对瑞士是个大问题，因为这个国家严重依赖贸易，出售巧克力、金表、奶酪等很多商品。从各方面来看，瑞士的总统非常自信且严肃，基本上就是典型的瑞士风格，而这似乎让她在与特朗普政府的谈判中遇到了困难。因为瑞士本身就非常开放和冷静，所以它实际上并没有太多的保护措施。如果你要求瑞士降低他们的关税，他们可能会说我们本来就没有多少关税。

One exception, of course, is agriculture, which all countries try to protect. It's a political issue with a natural security issue, but they didn't seem to be willing to budge as well. So the Swiss president actually flew in to Washington the past week trying to maybe meet with the president, maybe get some reprieved on their very high tariffs, but actually have to fly back empty handed. She, you know, kind of a big defeat for her and for Switzerland. Now I think the obvious answer for them, of course, is to have to buy it down, as Trump has mentioned before. So eventually, again, they're going to realize what they're doing wrong and they're going to have to turn around and pledge to invest a lot in the United States, whether it be to build a track of factory or a manufacturing factory or something like that. I'm not too sure. And the secret is, I think, you don't actually necessarily have to go through with it, but I'm sure they figured it out eventually.

当然，有一个例外，那就是农业，所有国家都试图保护它。这是一个涉及自然安全的政治问题，但他们似乎也不愿妥协。瑞士总统实际上在上周飞往华盛顿，希望可能与美国总统会面，争取对他们非常高的关税有所缓解，但实际上她空手而归地返回。这对她和瑞士来说都是一个很大的挫折。现在我认为，对他们来说，显然的解决办法就是像特朗普之前提到的那样，削减这些关税。最终，他们会意识到自己的错误，并不得不反过来承诺在美国进行大量投资，无论是建造一条工厂生产线还是设立制造工厂之类的。我对此不太确定。秘诀在于，我觉得你实际上不一定要真正去实施，但我相信他们最终会想明白的。

Now the third thing that was interesting the past week is the president hinted at his new upcoming chips, tariff policy. Now as we know, we have these huge reciprocal tariffs on countries throughout the world, but we also have these sector-specific tariffs that are aimed for more strategic purposes. For example, there are 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum because the president wants the United States to be self-sufficient and steel and aluminum. That is something you need if you ever wanted to say fight a war. Other things of national security importance are chips. And if you don't have chips, you really can't do anything when it comes to modern technology and pharmaceuticals, again, medicine is something of crucial importance. The president has hinted that he's going to start with a small tariff on pharmaceuticals and make it up to a ridiculous number, say 100% in the coming months, encouraging companies to build pharmaceuticals in the US.

上周有件事情引人注目，那就是总统暗示了他即将出台的新芯片关税政策。目前我们对全球多个国家设置了高额的互惠关税，还有一些是针对特定领域的关税，目的是出于战略考量。比如钢铁和铝制品有50%的关税，因为总统希望美国在钢铁和铝方面能够自给自足。这在某些情况下，比如战争中，是必需的。另外一些对国家安全很重要的东西是芯片。如果没有芯片，你在现代科技和制药领域几乎无法做任何事情，其中药物也是至关重要的。总统暗示，他将从对药品征收小额关税开始，并在未来几个月提高到一个很高的比例，比如100%，以此鼓励企业在美国生产药品。

When it comes to chips, though, it looks like the health policy is going to be a lot more toothless. Now let's listen to while Secretary Commerce describes this. If you're building America, you're not going to pay a tariff. And what he did is he said, I'll give you the leeway if you're committed to building in America and only if you're committed to building in America. Then he'll hold off on your tariff. But if you're not building in America, 100% tariff, pay or perform in America. So basically, if you are a chip company and you promise to build it in America, you don't have to have any tariffs. But if you don't do that, you'll be subject to tariffs, say 100%, basically cutting off trade, making your business not viable in the United States.

关于芯片方面，政策似乎变得较为无力。接下来让我们听听商务部部长是怎么说的。如果你在美国建厂，就不用缴纳关税。他的意思是，只要承诺在美国建厂，就可以免除关税。但如果不在美国建厂，则需要缴纳100%的关税。因此，如果你是一家芯片公司，并承诺在美国建厂，你就不需要缴纳关税。但如果你不这样做，你将面临关税，可能高达100%，这基本上会切断贸易，使你的业务在美国变得难以为继。

Now when you think about it, so all the tariffs, all the chips that people really think about, say the fancy AI stuff that are imported from Taiwan, designed by Nvidia, or the Billy Fancy CPUs, again, manufacturing Taiwan, designed by AMD, that stuff is going to be basically exempt because all these big companies, TSMC, Intel, they have, or in the process of building more and more companies, more and more foundries in the United States, so they're not going to suffer. And to be clear, a lot of the super high in stuff like the Nvidia chips, they wouldn't really be impacted by tariffs because they are not really many substitutes. So if you put a tariff on them, all that would really happen is that Nvidia would just pass it on to the, to their environs and the max 7 companies, hyper-scalers would end up just paying more and they probably don't care since they have so much money. So it's hard to see what this policy really impact. Maybe it just impacts chips from, say Huawei or others that are made in China.

当你仔细想想，所有关税、所有芯片，特别是那些人们津津乐道的高端AI产品，比如Nvidia设计、从台湾进口的芯片，或者AMD设计、在台湾制造的顶级CPU，这些产品基本上都将免税。因为所有这些大公司如台积电和英特尔，正在美国设立越来越多的工厂和晶圆厂，所以它们不受影响。需要明确的是，很多超级高端产品，比如Nvidia的芯片，其实不会受到关税的影响，因为市面上几乎没有替代品。所以即使对它们征收关税，实际结果也只是Nvidia将成本转嫁给他们的客户，而这些客户如大型科技公司或数据中心因为资金充裕，可能并不在意多付的费用。因此，这项政策的具体影响很难预见。或许，它只会对华为或其他中国制造的芯片产生影响。

So it could be some form of decoupling, but otherwise it doesn't seem to, at least the way that it's teased to have a big impact, but we'll have more details of this later on if Secretary Lucknet wants to raise revenue on these sector-specific tariffs, they're going to have to have more teeth and maybe that's, maybe that will happen. So we'll see. Okay. Now, the second thing that I want to talk about is new developments in the race to be fed chair. Now as we all know, there were the top candidates, the two Kevin's, Kevin Haset, the President's Trust Economic Advisor for many years and currently holds the post of the, I chair out the National Economic Council and of course, the other Kevin, Kevin Warsh, who well-connected person who has a long history of being very bad at monetary policy.

所以这可能是某种形式的脱钩，但不太像宣传中所说的那样会产生巨大影响。不过，如果财长Lucknet想通过这些特定行业的关税增加收入，他们可能需要采取更强硬的措施，也许这会实现，我们拭目以待。好，现在我想谈谈的第二个话题是关于美联储主席职位的最新发展。众所周知，有两个主要候选人，就是两位凯文。凯文·哈塞特曾多年担任总统的信任经济顾问，目前是国家经济委员会的主席。另一位凯文·沃什则是一位人脉广泛的人物，但他在货币政策上一直表现不佳。

But these guys, among the two, my personal view was that Kevin Haset will get it simply because he is a Trump loyalist, but it seems like that's changing. Now there's a report from Bloomberg the past week where Governor Waller, a current governor on the Trump appointee who has voted for dissented the past meeting for rate cuts is the front runner. Now Governor Waller made his pitch to the public on and Bloomberg in a few, not long ago, noting that if you appoint someone who was a loyalist, you know, the markets they might freak out, you might have a big so off in the bond market and end up with higher rates.

但在这两者之中，我个人认为凯文·哈塞特会获得这个职位，因为他是特朗普的忠实支持者，但情况似乎在发生变化。据彭博社上周的报道，现任特朗普任命的州长沃勒在最近的会议上投票反对降息，他现在是热门人选。沃勒州长不久前通过彭博社向公众表达了他的观点，他指出，如果任命一个忠实支持者，市场可能会恐慌，导致债券市场大幅下跌，利率升高。

So if you appoint someone though that is trusted by the market like me, you know, you're not going to have to worry about that and after all, I can convince other people on the board and I think we should be cutting rates and I have good reason to believe that. And so that seems that he seems to be getting the okay with a lot of people in Trump world. I'm guessing that's best, but of course he has yet to meet the president and everything, everything comes down to what the president thinks about you. And so it's probably going to be the most important interview of his entire career where he does well. He can probably be fed chair. I can't imagine how nerve wracking that would be, but obviously as I've said many times, I think he would be a good pick.

所以，如果你任命一个像我这样受到市场信任的人，你就不需要担心这个问题。毕竟，我能够说服董事会的其他人，我认为我们应该降息，并且我有充分的理由相信这一点。因此，在特朗普的圈子里，他似乎得到了很多人的认可。我猜这是最好的选择，不过他还没有见过总统，一切都取决于总统对他的看法。所以，这可能是他职业生涯中最重要的一次面试。如果他表现得好，可能就能成为美联储主席。我无法想象这有多让人紧张，但显然，我已经多次表示，我认为他会是个不错的选择。

However, we also had some last minute drama. We're on Friday. We had a couple other names leaked out. James Bullard, former president of the St. Louis Fed, was floated and also Mark Simmelon, a former Bush era person. I believe he was deputy, something or another in treasury. So these guys, again, interesting because they're not really part of team mega, but again, just from objectively speaking, nothing wrong with these picks. These seem like good guys. But do you have the public record of saying that you will vote for rate cuts? Do you have rapport with the president? It doesn't seem to me like these are really strong contenders. It's probably some apprentice style drama as a president likes. My best guess is that this is probably going to be a wallard at the moment.

然而，我们也遇到了一些最后时刻的波折。周五时，有几个名字被泄露出来。圣路易斯联邦储备银行的前任主席詹姆斯·布拉德和布什时代的一个人物马克·西梅隆被提出来。我记得他在财政部担任过某个副职。这些人有趣的是，他们并不真正属于强硬派，但客观来说，这些选择没什么不妥，他们看起来都是不错的人选。但是，您是否公开表示支持降息？您与总统有良好的关系吗？在我看来，他们似乎不是真正的有力竞争者。这可能只是一种总统喜欢的《学徒》风格的戏剧。我最好的猜测是，目前可能会是沃勒。

That's a strong pick for strategic reasons as well, but it's always hard to know. The reason it's a good pick for strategic reasons is that J-Powell actually has a bit of a trump card on his hand. J-Powell actually doesn't have to leave the Fed once his chair for his venture term is up. The next day until his term expires, I believe in 2028. So historically speaking, when the Fed chair ends his term, he resigns from the board of governors and the president gets a chance to appoint someone else to be on the board. But he doesn't have to do that.

从战略角度来看，这是一个很好的选择，但总是很难确定。之所以从战略上讲这是个不错的选择，是因为鲍威尔（J-Powell）其实有个王牌。即便他的任期结束，他也不一定要离开美联储。我相信他的任期要到2028年才结束。按历史惯例，当美联储主席的任期结束时，通常会辞去理事会席位，这样总统就有机会任命其他人进入理事会。但他不一定非得这样做。

In the past, we had a governor echoes after seizing to become Fed chair, stay on the board. Now, if J-Powell were to just kind of stay on the board past his chairmanship date next May, he could really be kind of a thorn in the president's side because in fact J-Powell would be kind of like a shadow Fed chair. Now J-Powell, because of his stature as former Fed chair, remains influential with the public and with other members on the committee. He's someone that people on the committee know and trust having worked with him for many years. And so J-Powell could through that influence continue to sway policy.

过去，我们曾有一位在停止担任美联储主席后，继续留在董事会的州长。如果杰罗姆·鲍威尔在明年5月任期结束后继续留在董事会，他可能会成为总统的一个麻烦，因为他实际上可能会像影子美联储主席一样。由于他作为前任主席的地位，鲍威尔在公众和委员会其他成员中仍然具有影响力。委员会中的人多年来与他共事，了解并信任他。基于这些影响力，鲍威尔可能继续对政策施加影响。

That is a very bad scenario for the Trump administration. So one way to make J-Powell at ease so that he won't just kind of stay there and try to do what he's perceived to be the right thing that is protecting the independence of the Fed would be to appoint someone that J-Powell has confidence in so that J-Powell can be at ease and leave the board. So if Governor Waller pointed us that chair, I think it's pretty certain that J-Powell would feel at ease, he would leave. And that would strategically give the Trump administration a chance to appoint another person to the FOMC next May. So that would give him an extra seat.

这对特朗普政府来说是一个非常糟糕的情况。为了让J-鲍威尔感到放心，避免他只是留在那里，坚持做他认为正确的事（维护美联储的独立性），一个办法就是任命一个J-鲍威尔信任的人，这样他可以安心离开美联储董事会。如果沃勒州长被任命为主席，我认为几乎可以肯定J-鲍威尔会感到放心并离开。这将策略性地给特朗普政府一个机会，在明年五月任命另一位FOMC（联邦公开市场委员会）成员，从而获得额外的席位。

And so again, increases the MAGA influence over the Fed. Another interesting development the past week was that the president nominated a chair of Council of Economic Advisors Steve Moran to fill the vacating Governor's seat of Governor Kugler. Now Governor Kugler suddenly resigned from the board last week but her term was always going to be up in a few months anyway. Now the expectation was that when her term was up next January the president would appoint someone to fill that 14 year vacancy. That timeline has been pulled forward.

因此，MAGA（让美国再次伟大）运动对美联储的影响力再次增加。上周另一个有趣的进展是，总统提名经济顾问委员会主席史蒂夫·莫兰（Steve Moran）来填补即将空缺的库格勒（Kugler）州长的职位。库格勒州长上周突然辞去了理事会的职务，不过她的任期本来也只剩几个月就结束了。在原本的预期中，她的任期将于明年一月结束，然后总统会任命一个人来填补这个为期14年的空缺。然而，这一进程已经提前了。

Now the thinking was that maybe the president could nominate someone in October, November, and then fill that seat in January. But since Governor Kugler suddenly resigned, there's going to be a four month vacancy. And it seems like for these four months, Chairman Moran is going to fill that spot. Now Steve is someone who is very close to the president very much on T-MAGA and has advocated for rate cuts. So this is going to be an extra voice on the FOMC for the next few meetings to kind of advocate for more rate cuts. Now to be clear though, the market already expects the Fed to cut rates probably 25 basis points in September, probably another cut by December.

现在的想法是，总统可能会在十月或十一月提名某个人，然后在一月填补那个席位。但由于库格勒州长突然辞职，将会有四个月的空缺。在这四个月中，看起来莫兰主席将会暂时填补这一职位。史蒂夫与总统关系密切，非常支持“T-MAGA”，并一直倡导降息。因此，在接下来的几次会议中，他将成为联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 中支持更多降息的额外声音。不过需要澄清一点，市场已经预期美联储可能会在九月降息25个基点，并可能在十二月再次降息。

What could happen is that Steve could advocate for 50 instead of 25 basis points or he could also push for more changes in the governance and culture of the Fed. For example, one of the concerns that Steve has had in the past is that the Fed is engaging in a mission creep. It's talking about things like climate change and DI and stuff like that. And it's very clear, Lucis has shown that the Fed papers have actually increasingly focused on things like that. So he could also make a smart on the Fed by trying to rein that in, focus the Fed more on its mission.

这段话可以翻译成中文： 可能发生的是，史蒂夫可能主张加息50个基点而不是25个基点，或者他也可能推动更多关于美联储治理和文化的改变。例如，史蒂夫过去担心的是，美联储正在扩大其职能范围，开始讨论诸如气候变化和多样性包容性（DI）等话题。Lucis的研究明确显示，美联储的文件实际上越来越关注这些话题。因此，史蒂夫也可能努力让美联储更加专注于其核心任务，尝试将这些非核心问题控制在一定范围内。

So it's also possible, of course, that the president, seeing that Steve does a good job in the next four months could actually appoint him to the full term in January. But at the moment though, the president seems to be keeping his options open saying that Steve will fill this four months and then he was going to appoint someone else on the board in January and at the moment it's really not clear who. I'm sure that would be a topic of a lot of drama and a lot of news articles in the coming months.

当然，总统也有可能在看到史蒂夫在接下来的四个月里表现出色后，于一月份正式任命他担任完整任期。不过，目前看来，总统似乎保留自己的选项，表示史蒂夫将完成这四个月的过渡期，然后在一月份任命其他人加入董事会。目前，具体人选尚不明确。我相信在接下来的几个月中，这将成为很多戏剧性事件和新闻报道的话题。

Okay, the last thing I want to talk about is to give a little bit of an update on the job revisions we saw on BLS last week. Now a lot of people have been talking about that the job revisions were the large we've seen in a long time. And that's just that there may be something wrong with how the BLS is performing. Of course, a person Trump did fire the head of the BLS on those grounds. And maybe he also didn't like the data either.

好的，我最后想谈的是上周在美国劳工统计局（BLS）看到的就业数据修订的最新情况。很多人都在讨论这次的就业数据修订规模是我们很长时间以来见过的最大的。这就引发了一些讨论，认为BLS的工作方式可能存在问题。当然，特朗普曾以类似理由解雇了BLS的负责人，也许他也不喜欢当时的数据。

Now interestingly, he actually has some support in market participants about firing the BLS commissioner where even Radalio waited and said that he also would have fired the BLS commissioner simply because these big revisions suggest that there's something wrong with how the BLS is doing its work. Now I was wondering why there was these big revisions. And so very, very, very, thankfully, odd lots had a former BLS commissioner, Trump appointee, go on their show and discuss why they're big revisions.

有趣的是，他在市场参与者中竟然获得了一些支持，关于解雇BLS（美国劳工统计局）局长的事情。甚至雷·达里奥也表示，他也会解雇BLS局长，因为这些大的数据修正表明BLS的工作方式有问题。我对这些大修正的原因感到好奇。幸运的是，节目《Odd Lots》请来了一位前BLS局长（由特朗普任命）上节目，讨论为何会有如此大的数据修正。

Here's what he said. Well, those businesses are supposed to turn their surveys in at the end of the month, but only about 68% usually has the average due so. And so BLS keeps the window open for two more months. So 68% or so at the end of the first month, they make the first estimate. Then at the end of the second month, we'd get about 83% completion. And they revised that number of the first month. And then by the third month, we're into the 90s. Usually end up around 93, 94% of all the.

以下是他所说的内容。那些企业应该在月底提交他们的调查结果，但通常只有大约68%的企业按时提交。因此，美国劳工统计局会将提交窗口再开放两个月。到第一个月结束时，大约有68%的提交率，他们会做出第一次估算。然后在第二个月结束时，提交率会提高到83%左右，并对第一个月的数字进行修正。到第三个月，我们的提交率达到90%以上，通常最终能达到93%到94%左右。

So basically, the BLS sent out surveys and maybe 60, 70% of the people respond in time. And so that, those surveys then get, again, it's a sample. So through their statistical algorithms, they come up with an NFP number. But over time, more surveys come in and that number gets revised. And so the data suggests that the server response rate within the first month has been dropping a lot. So that first number, that first NFP number we get is basically becoming less and less, built on less and less surveys.

基本上，美国劳工统计局（BLS）发出调查问卷，大约60%到70%的人会及时回应。这些调查数据只是一个样本，通过他们的统计算法，得出了一个非农就业人数（NFP）数据。然而，随着时间的推移，会有更多的调查结果进来，这个数据也会进行修正。而数据显示，首月的调查回应率已经大幅下降，所以我们最开始得到的那个NFP数据其实是基于越来越少的调查结果得出的。

So potentially less accurate. However, you can see that subsequently, people do tend to return their surveys on. So the final number still is basically comprised of comparable number of surveys as in the past. So it's probably as reliable. Now one other thing that's often noted is that these big revisions, usually happen in turning points in the economy.

所以，准确性可能会降低。然而，你可以看到，之后人们确实倾向于按时返回他们的调查问卷。因此，最终的数量仍然基本上和过去的调查数量相当。所以结果可能还是同样可靠的。还有一个经常被提到的事情是，这些大的修订通常发生在经济的转折点。

So if we're getting those big revisions now, there is an increased chance that we may be an turning point where we may be solely falling into recession. And I think that's what I'm going to write about today where there's really a lot of data that suggests the labor market is cooling rapidly and we're probably heading into, you know, if not big softening our recession. All right. So that's all I prepared for today. Thanks so much for tuning in. I'll talk to you guys next week.

所以，如果我们现在看到这些大的修正情况，就意味着我们可能正处于一个转折点，很可能会陷入经济衰退。我今天打算写的就是这个，确实有很多数据显示劳动力市场正在快速降温，我们有可能面临经济的大幅放缓，甚至可能是衰退。好的，这就是我今天准备的全部内容。非常感谢您的收听。我们下周再聊。