Markets Weekly July 26, 2025

Hello my friends, today is July 26th and this is Market's Weekly. This past week was a pretty slow week when it came to data, but when it comes to the stock market, it was basically a perfect week, as they say, the SNP 500 made new all-time highs every single day. Now today let's talk about two things. First off, let's talk about how it seems like there is some degree of speculative frenzy in the markets where the apes are in full control. So I think it's time to be pretty cautious and secondly, we also had some new political developments that are showing us the turf and game.

你好，朋友们，今天是7月26日，欢迎收看《市场周报》。过去这一周在数据方面比较平淡，但在股市方面可以说是完美的一周。据说标普500指数每天都创下历史新高。今天我们来谈两件事。首先，市场上似乎出现了一些投机热潮，“小散”们似乎掌控了局面。因此，我认为现在需要谨慎一些。其次，我们也看到了一些新的政治动态，展示了目前的局势和动向。

All right, starting with the apes in control. So looking at the market, I think there are a few signs that there is a high degree of speculation here. First off, of course, you have the rise in these single-name stocks that are just getting absolutely squeezed. For example, look at Open. What is Open? Open is one of those online tech realistic companies where basically you can sell your home to Open and they'll have some kind of automated valuation and buy your home from you. These automated home buying strategies have been tried by other companies and have not been successful. And of course, Open really doesn't make money.

好的，我们先从那些掌控局面的“股民”说起。看看市场，我觉得有几个迹象表明这里的投机性非常高。首先，就是那些个别股票价格的疯狂上涨。例如，看看Open公司。Open是一家在线科技房地产公司，基本上你可以通过Open卖掉你的房子，他们会进行某种自动估值，然后买下你的房子。其他公司也尝试过这些自动化购房策略，但都没有成功。当然，Open公司其实并不盈利。

So Open Stock has not been doing well. And yet you see over the past week, you see the stock of Open absolutely search several hundred percent. What's happening, of course, is that the apes are getting together, coordinating on social media, buying calls and making the stock search. Now there is some method to this madness, though. It seems like they're looking for stocks that have high short interest. So let's see that you are a more fundamental-based guy looking at the stock, looking at the business, thinking it's not going to do well and selling it.

So Open股票的表现一直不好。然而，在过去一周里，你会看到Open的股票飙升了数百个百分点。这是因为一些投资者（称为“猿类”）在社交媒体上协同起来，购买期权，从而推动股票上涨。不过，这种疯狂中也有一定的方法。他们似乎在寻找那些空头仓位比例较高的股票。假设你是一个注重基本面的投资者，在分析公司业务后认为前景不佳，所以选择卖出股票。

So what happens to the apes come in by a bunch of costs, squeezed stock higher, forces you to cover, makes the stock go even higher. I don't see it's good trading if that's remodivation, but of course a lot of people are just buying it because number go up. You see this in many other companies as well in calls, for example, in crispy cream. Basically companies that don't have too much going for them on a fundamental sense, just kind of search higher because you have a mob of people just buying options. This is something we've seen before, right? The BME or Hertz Carrento, so forth. So it seems like it's coming back to some extent.

那么，这些“猿人”会发生什么呢？他们因一系列成本而进入市场，推高了股价，逼迫你去平仓，从而让股价更高。我认为，如果这就是他们的动机，那就不是一个好的交易。当然，很多人只是因为价格上涨而买入。你可以在其他许多公司中看到这种现象，比如Krispy Kreme。基本上，那些在基本面上没有太多优势的公司，只是因为一群人涌入购买期权而股票暴涨。这是我们以前见过的现象，比如在GME或赫兹公司（Hertz）的事例中。因此，这种情况似乎在一定程度上又开始出现了。

Now in addition to that, you also have a few other signs. For example, the rise of the crypto treasury companies. Now the person who pioneered the strategy, of course, is a microsaler of micro-strategy. Who, to be clear, worked very well, very brilliant. What he would do is he would issue stock and by Bitcoin. That made his stock price go to the moon. Now a whole slew of new companies are trying this strategy. What they discovered is, say, if they issued $100 million in stock and used that to buy $100 million in Bitcoin, the market value of their company would actually go up by $2 or $300 million.

现在，除了这些，你还有其他一些迹象可以观察。例如，加密货币金库公司的兴起。当然，这种策略的开创者是MicroStrategy公司的一个出色营销人员。他的方法非常出色且聪明。具体来说，他的做法是发行股票，然后用募集的资金购买比特币。这让他的公司股价大幅上涨。现在，许多新公司正在尝试采用这种策略。他们发现，如果发行1亿美元的股票并用这些资金购买价值1亿美元的比特币，公司在市场上的价值可能会增加2亿或3亿美元。

How does that make sense? Why does buying $1 Bitcoin actually give you $2 or $3 of value? Well, that's the part where it doesn't make sense. It's kind of a frenzy, but you see companies like this successfully do this strategy. And it makes their stock market price go up. Although a lot of times they give part of it back. You even see new companies arrive that are pioneering these crypto strategies, not with Bitcoin, but with more of the all speculative coins. When asked to comment on this, microsaler actually suggested that this is kind of risky.

这怎么讲得通呢？为什么花1美元买比特币实际上能获得2或3美元的价值呢？这就是不太合理的地方。这有点像一种狂热，但你会看到一些公司使用这种策略并成功了，使它们的股价上涨。虽然很多时候它们会把一部分涨幅返还。你甚至会看到一些新公司出现，它们不是用比特币，而是用更多投机性更强的币种来开创这些加密货币策略。当被问及对此的看法时，MicroSaler（假设是指某位人士或公司）实际上建议说这是一种风险很大的行为。

So it didn't seem like he was too keen on these new crypto treasury management companies. But yeah, I think that's a pretty strong sign of Furver as well. Traditionally, when you look at excessive speculation in the market, you also look at leverage. Historically, that's through things like margin debt and there are reports that margin debt is at an old time high. But really, these days, what people do speculation is in the options market and there are charts that show that zero DT options are really becoming increasingly increasingly dominant, popular part of the market.

因此，他似乎对这些新的加密货币财务管理公司不是特别感兴趣。不过，我觉得这也是一个Furver（市场狂热）的明显标志。通常，当观察市场过度投机时，也需要关注杠杆作用。历史上，杠杆作用体现在保证金债务上，而且有报道表明保证金债务达到历史新高。但是，现如今，人们进行投机活动主要是在期权市场，并且有图表显示零日到期期权（zero DT options）正在成为市场中越来越受欢迎且主导的部分。

And for many stocks looking at call skew, so how expensive calls are relative to puts, it's also suggesting there's a lot of people who are speculating on further upside. And to be totally clear, this has worked very well for them. We've skyrocketed since April those. But it is obviously, in my opinion, some sort of maniac slash bubble and how high it can go. I don't know. But eventually though, I don't know in eventually the result and in the same way. So I think it's time to be a bit more cautious.

很多股票的看涨期权相对于看跌期权价格较高，表明有很多人正在投机股价会进一步上涨。要明确一点，这种投机对他们来说效果很好。自从四月份以来，股价暴涨。但在我看来，这显然是一种狂热或泡沫，不知道还能涨到多高。不过最终结果如何，我也不清楚。因此，我认为是时候应该更加谨慎了。

There are many narratives for what's driving this. Of course, people talk about AI, people talk about the Vogue guys, the smart Vogue guys will also say that there's a lot of vol compression and VIX has been relatively low as well. And that's supportive of the market. But we'll see what happens. But anyway, I'm seeing tremendous amounts of frenzy in the equity market.

有很多种说法来解释这一现象。有人提到人工智能，有人提到Vogue团队，聪明的Vogue人也会说，这与波动压缩有关，VIX指数也一直比较低。这些因素都对市场有利。不过，我们要看看后续会发生什么。不管怎么说，我注意到股市中有大量的狂热情绪。

So the second thing though, we have to talk about, is partly related to the first. And that is, there is some reason for positive sentiment. And that is, we're approaching the end of the tariff negotiations. Now, all this began April 1st, April 2nd, on Liberation Day, President Trump unveiled his tariffs, scared the markets, we had a really deep, deep sell-off and have gone straight up since then. Now, the tariff end game is coming this Friday because that's the deadline that the president has imposed for tariff negotiations.

第二件事情，我们必须讨论一下，这和第一件事情有些关联。那就是，现在有一些理由让人对市场感到乐观。因为我们即将接近关税谈判的尾声。这一切开始于4月1日、4月2日，正值开放日，总统特朗普宣布了他的关税政策，这让市场受到了惊吓，我们经历了一次非常严重的市场暴跌，但此后市场一直在回升。现在，关税谈判的最终阶段将在这个星期五到来，因为总统对关税谈判设定了最后期限。

In the past week, we had Japan make a deal and it looks like this weekend as President meets with you leader or slow of on the line, maybe we'll have an EU deal as well. And that would basically wrap things up. Now the end game that we're beginning to see is tariffs going to say 15%, which is what Japan got as well. Now 15% obviously is going to be lower than some of the feared numbers, say 20, 25, 30% or Japan's case, it was definitely lower than 25%.

在过去的一周里，我们与日本达成了一项协议，看起来在这个周末，总统会见贵国领导人时，可能我们也会达成一项欧盟协议。这样基本上就可以收尾了。目前我们开始看到的结果是关税将设定在15%左右，这和日本得到的关税水平一样。显然，15%的关税比一些令人担心的数字要低，比如20%、25%、30%，对于日本来说，15%显然也低于25%。

So for them, it's a win. And if you look at the effective tariffs people calculate, the deal that Japan got is a bit lower than what they had been. Although compared to last year, though, it's much higher. Last year, their tariffs was a two or three percent. Now it looks like on an effective basis, it'd be slightly below 15. So tariffs have gone up a lot, but now we have clarity.

对他们来说，这是一种胜利。如果你看看人们所计算的有效关税，日本得到的协议稍微低于之前的水平。虽然相比去年，这是大幅上涨。去年，他们的关税是百分之二或三。现在看来，按有效基准计算，关税略低于百分之十五。所以关税上涨了很多，但现在我们有了清晰的理解。

We know that this is about what the president expects. The EU deal, whenever they get that, will probably be 15% as well. So that's going to be a significant hike from last year. Work from the EO budget office shows that the effective tariff rate is going to be the highest it's been in many decades. Now, if you look at the actual tariff revenue that we're collecting as a proxy as to how effective these are, it's very clear that tariff revenue has surged.

我们知道这与总统的期望有关。无论何时达成欧盟协议，可能也将达到15%。因此，这将是对比去年的一次显著增长。行政办公室的数据显示，实际的关税率将达到多年来的最高水平。现在，如果你把我们收取的实际关税收入作为评价其有效性的指标，可以明显看出，关税收入猛增。

And on an annual basis, it looks like we're going to be incrementally increasing this, but say two to three hundred billion. Again, we don't have the final tariff numbers yet. And earlier in the year, there's a lot of people front running a tariffs by inputting a lot of stuff. So there's a lot of cloudiness in this data. But tariff revenue is going to be a lot higher this year than last.

每年看来，我们将逐步增加这项收入，大约会是两千亿到三千亿美元。需要注意的是，我们目前还没有最终的关税数字。今年年初，由于很多人为了赶在关税之前进口大量商品，导致数据存在很大的不确定性。不过，可以肯定的是，今年的关税收入会比去年高得多。

And ultimately, that's going to have an economic impact. So we've talked about this many times. It's not straightforward that the subit inflationary. There are three people involved in this. You have the exporter, the importer, and the consumer. And who pays those tariffs, let's say this extra two to three hundred billion in tariffs.

最终，这将会对经济产生影响。我们已经多次讨论过这个问题。通胀情况并不简单明确。在这个过程中涉及到三方：出口商、进口商和消费者。那么，我们来看看是谁在承担这些关税，假设额外的两千亿至三千亿美元的关税。

This year is going to vary according to products and bargaining dynamics and so forth. We talked about last week how the tariffs on Japanese cars were basically completely paid by the Japanese auto manufacturers. Year of year export auto prices in Japan were down, say 20%, which basically makes up for the 25% tariffs that were imposed on them. But there will also be other products that are different.

今年的情况将会因产品和谈判动态等因素而有所不同。我们上周讨论了日本汽车的关税问题，这些关税基本上都是由日本汽车制造商承担的。与去年相比，日本的汽车出口价格下降了大约20%，这基本上抵消了对它们征收的25%关税。不过，其他一些产品的情况可能会有所不同。

Now there are reports that the auto makers in the US, GMP in particular, are noting that their profits are down a lot because of the tariffs. And so in that case, it's the importing company that's paying the tariffs. So they'll pay it through lower profit margins. And in some cases, of course, the consumers will face higher prices. We have reports saying that Walmart is going to try to pass on price increases to the consumer.

现在有报道称，美国的汽车制造商，特别是通用汽车公司（GMP），发现由于关税的原因，他们的利润大幅下降。在这种情况下，是进口公司在承担关税，会导致他们的利润率降低。当然，在某些情况下，消费者也会面临更高的价格。有报告称，沃尔玛计划将价格上涨转嫁给消费者。

And so that's less discretionary income for the consumer to buy other stuff. So yes, at the end of the day, it is a tax increase, not necessarily inflationary, but definitely it's going to have a slowing impact on growth. And so although we have clarity as to what tariffs are going to be, and it's probably going to be less than some people had feared, at the end of the day, it's a lot higher than it was last year.

因此，消费者用于购买其他东西的可支配收入就更少了。所以，最终来说，这就相当于一种税收增加，不一定会引发通货膨胀，但肯定会对经济增长产生抑制作用。虽然我们已经清楚了解关税的情况，并且这可能比一些人担心的要低，但归根结底，它比去年高出很多。

And that's going to have an impact on growth and profit margins. How much we will figure out in the coming quarters? Now in addition to this tariff end game, we have also something new that President Trump announced. And that is, so part of the Japan deal was an alleged $550 billion investment that Japan is going to make into the US.

这将对增长和利润率产生影响。具体影响有多大，我们将在接下来的几个季度中弄清楚。除了关税问题的最终结果，我们还有一个新情况，那就是特朗普总统宣布的一项消息：作为日美协议的一部分，日本将向美国投资据称高达5500亿美元。

And President Trump is suggesting that this is going to be an investment that the President will be able to direct at his discretion. And the profits of said investment is going to occur accrue almost entirely to the United States. In a sense, it's kind of as if he is finally getting financing for the US sovereign wealth fund.

特朗普总统表示，这将是一项由他自行决策的投资。该投资的收益几乎完全归美国所有。某种意义上，这好像是他最终为美国主权财富基金获得了资金。

So that means that the President could potentially have his huge pool of money that he goes in investing in industries that he thinks are good. And hopefully that's not going to be in industries that are too related to people he knows. Now there is some dispute on this. According to the Japanese side, we don't really know about this. And I think we're going to, well, it's not that we don't really know about this, that they chose a sketchy. Nothing is on paper. And we thought that we would split the profits in a more equitable way. So maybe this is something that's just bluster in the past, big announcements of investments in the US have turned out to be much smaller than announced. So hard to say how this is. But this does open up an additional rinko because at a recent press conference, President Trump also noted that in connection with his ongoing EU negotiations, that the EU would have to quote unquote, bite down.

这意味着总统可能会利用他庞大的资金池投资于他认为有前景的行业。希望这些行业不太会与他认识的人有密切的关联。不过，对这一点存在一些争议。根据日方的说法，我们对此并不十分了解。我认为，我们其实并不是不知道这件事，而是觉得他们的选择不够透明，很多事情没有书面记录。我们设想利润会以更公平的方式分配。所以，也许这只是以前的炒作，过去宣布的在美国的大规模投资往往落空，并没有实际那么大。因此，很难说会怎么样。但这个问题使情况变得更加复杂，因为在最近的一次新闻发布会上，特朗普总统还提到，在与欧盟的持续谈判中，欧盟将不得不“咬牙坚持”。

As to say, they would also have to put up money like Japan in order to get a 15% terra freight and a trade deal with the US. So seems like the end game involves countries not just growing to a set of tariffs, but also willing to put up money for investment in the United States. So how this tricks out, we'll figure it will find out in the coming days. It looks like we will get at any EU deal. It looks like there won't be some kind of brinksmanship until the Friday deadline. There might be in the case of Canada, which the president is saying that it's just not working out there. So that looks like how it's going to shake out. Looks like we're going to have this resolved earlier than expected. And we'll see the economic fall out going forward.

这句话的意思是，为了获得与美国的15%陆运税和贸易协议，各国可能还需要像日本一样投入资金。因此，最终的结果可能不仅仅是各国同意一套关税，还需要愿意向美国投资。接下来几天我们会看到具体如何发展。看起来我们会与欧盟达成某种协议，并且在截止日期之前不会出现紧张局势。但在加拿大的情况下，可能会有麻烦，总统表示那里的情况进展不顺利。这似乎是事情的走向，看起来问题会比预期更早得到解决，并且我们将看到随之而来的经济影响。

Now, the last loose end, of course, is China. And those discussions will be ongoing and drag out. At the end of the day, we need Chinese where Earth's China really likes. And video chips. And so we kind of have kind of trump cards on both sides. And so that discussion is going to be slower and more drawn out. And I think the president is just going to try to work things out slowly by continually extending the deadlines. So that seems like we're at the end of our Liberation Day journey. One more thing that I thought was super interesting was that so now that we have tariffs, now that we have trade deals, what's next in trying to encourage the rebalancing of global trade.

现在，最后一个未解决的问题当然是中国。这些讨论将会持续进行，并可能延长。到头来，我们需要中国的商品，尤其是地球上中国非常喜欢的东西，比如视频芯片。因此，我们在这方面可以说是双方都有一些王牌。讨论会比较缓慢且漫长。而我认为总统将会通过不断延长最后期限，慢慢地解决问题。这似乎是我们解放日旅程的终点。我觉得还有一件非常有趣的事情，就是，现在我们有了关税和贸易协议，下一步我们如何鼓励全球贸易的重新平衡？

And President Trump kind of alluded to this when asked about what he thought about the continuing weakness of the dollar. Let's listen to what he said. When we have a strong dollar, one thing happens. It sounds good. But you don't do any tourism. You can't sell tractors. You can't sell trups. You can't sell anything. It is good for inflation. It's about it. And we have no inflation. We wiped out inflation. But it's an interesting question. So I will never say I like a low currency. But you remember the battles I had with the WAN, with China and with Japan, Japan being the end. They always wanted a weak currency. They're trying to get a weak currency now.

特朗普总统在被问及对美元持续疲软的看法时，有所提及。让我们来听听他怎么说。他表示，当美元强势时，看起来不错，但实际上对旅游业不利，拖拉机卖不出去，甚至其他商品也都卖不出去。虽然强势美元对通货膨胀有好处，但目前我们并没有通货膨胀，我们已经消除了通货膨胀。不过，这是个有趣的问题。因此，我不会说我喜欢货币贬值。但你们应该记得，我过去与中国的人民币和日本的日元进行过的斗争。他们总是想要一个弱势货币，现在他们也在努力实现这一目标。

Now it doesn't sound good. But you make a hell of a lot more money with a weaker dollar. Not a weak dollar, but a weaker dollar than you do with a strong dollar. And the first thing people that are going to notice it are the manufacturers of drugs and various other things. So basically, Trump, as we all know, kind of likes a weak dollar. He's going to tell you that he wants a strong dollar. But having a weak dollar is good for making money. And so we've had, as many have noted, one of the weakest starts to the dollar since 1973. And maybe that will continue because that's something that they would like to see.

现在听起来好像不太好，但美元走弱时，你能赚到比美元走强时多得多的钱。不是说美元非常弱，而是比强势美元稍微弱一些。在这种情况下，最先注意到变化的是药品制造商和其他一些行业。所以，基本上，我们都知道特朗普其实比较喜欢弱势美元。他会说他想要美元强势，但实际上弱势美元对赚钱更有利。而且正如许多人注意到的那样，自1973年以来，我们经历了美元最疲软的开局之一。也许这种情况会继续下去，因为这正是他们希望看到的。

Now next week is going to be a week full of data. We're going to have GDP. We're going to have jobs. And we're going to have an FOMC meeting. So I'll be back to you with my thoughts on the FOMC meeting. So I think I'm going to be joining the foreign guidance people on their live stream. So I'm going to upload what happened there on my channel. All right. So I'll talk to you guys on Wednesday.

下周将是数据满满的一周。我们将看到GDP数据，工作岗位数据，还有一个FOMC会议。我会就FOMC会议发表我的看法。因此，我计划加入外汇指导团队的直播，之后我会把直播内容上传到我的频道。那么，我们周三再聊。