Markets Weekly July 12, 2025

Hello my friends, today is July 12th and this is markets weekly. This past week looking at the broad equity indexes, it looked boring actually, I got the sense that they looked like they were somewhat pinned. However there were a lot of price movements in other markets and of course a lot of news flow. So today let's talk about three things. First off we have to talk about the return of tariffs because they are back in a big way. Secondly, what come by either past week was to break out in silver, so let's talk about how silver is the original meme coin. And lastly, it looks like Trump allies are having a new attack line on Droom Powell trying to force him to resign, so let's see what's happening over there.

你好，朋友们，今天是7月12日，这是本周市场周报。在过去的一周里，观察广泛的股票指数，实际上看起来相当平淡，我感觉它们看起来像是被钉住了一样。然而，其他市场有很多价格波动，当然还有很多新闻出现。所以今天我们来谈论三件事。首先，我们必须讨论关税的回归，因为它们正在大规模回归。其次，上周的一个大事件是白银的突破性行情，所以我们来谈谈白银是如何成为最早的“迷因币”。最后，看起来特朗普的盟友们正试图对鲍威尔施压，迫使他辞职，所以我们来看看那边发生了什么。

Alright, starting with tariffs. So last week we were speculating as to what the president would focus on now. Over the past six months and it's only been six months a lot has happened. Now the president passed his signature, big beautiful bill. He's also stopped war between India and Pakistan, caused a temporary truce in the Middle East and of course you pendid global trade post liberation day. So heading to this week early on, he had announced that the July 9 deadline for tariffs would be pushed to August 1st.

好的，我们从关税开始。上周我们在猜测总统现在会关注什么。在过去的六个月里，虽然只有短短六个月，却发生了很多事情。现在，总统通过了他标志性的、重要的法案。他还成功阻止了印度和巴基斯坦之间的战争，促成了中东地区的暂时停火，当然还有你提到的全球贸易在“解放日”后的悬而未决。因此，在本周的早些时候，他宣布将原定于7月9日的关税截止日期推迟到8月1日。

So on the surface it looked like he was again, taco-ing. But what actually happened in the following days was pretty surprising. In other words, the president sent out a series of letters to many countries telling them that hey starting on August 1st, your new tariff rate will be this. Now the new tariff rates were anything but taco-ing. When you look at a chart of liberation day tariffs and compare them to the new letters the countries are receiving, it looks like for many countries their tariff rates are going to go back to liberation day levels, sometimes a little bit higher, sometimes a little bit lower.

从表面上看，看起来他又是在耍花招。然而，接下来几天发生的事情却相当令人惊讶。换句话说，总统向许多国家发送了一系列信件，告诉他们从8月1日起，你们的新关税率将是这样的。新的关税率完全不是在搞小动作。通过对比解放日的关税图表和各国收到的新信件，可以发现，许多国家的关税率将回到解放日的水平，有时稍微高一点，有时稍微低一点。

So it seems like a tremendous escalation in tariff rates for many countries. The markets that are really relaxed to this at all, again it's hard to see what drives prices, it could be underlying pinning, it could be that many people are just very complacent thinking that the president is just going to you turn on this because of course he has done so many times in the past. This time around the tariffs are a bit more than they did in April 1st though, they're more in a couple ways. Next off we have new countries receiving letters that weren't touched on April 1st and also we have new sectors receiving tariffs.

这似乎是各国关税率的重大升级。市场对此显得相当淡定，很难看出是什么推动了价格。可能是因为潜在的支撑，或者许多人过于自满，认为总统会在这一问题上转变立场，毕竟他过去经常这样做。不过，这次的关税比4月1日时要多，从多个方面来讲都是如此。接下来，有一些新国家收到了信件，这在4月1日时没有涉及，同时还有新的行业遭受关税影响。

Looking at the new countries, what stood out the past week was of course Brazil and Canada receiving tariffs. Brazil was not included in liberation day and for a good reason the US runs a trade surplus with Brazil. So from the White House's perspective we are winning and trade there but the president's logic specifically notes that Brazil has been treating his friend for a president in Bolsonaro. Very poorly and so he's terrifting them. So it's basically a tool of political change or political coercion so far.

回顾上周发生的新情况，最引人注目的事件当然是巴西和加拿大被征收关税。巴西没有被列入免税名单，这是有原因的，因为美国与巴西的贸易是顺差。从白宫的角度来看，美国在与巴西的贸易中是"赢家"。但是，总统的思路指出，巴西对待他的朋友——总统博尔索纳罗非常不友好，因此决定对其征收关税。基本上，这是一个政治变化或政治胁迫的工具。

So it's a new use of the tariff tool, probably won't stand up in court, I don't know if it's going to be challenged but it does expand the horizons that the president is willing to use with his tariff power. The tariff on Brazil is 50% so it's sizable although I don't know how much they export to us. It looks like estimates are that it's going to have a 1% GDP impact on Brazil. Now the other new country that received a letter was Canada, the president saying the Canadians are going to be careful at 35%.

所以这是一种新的关税工具的使用方式，可能在法庭上无法站得住脚，我不知道是否会受到挑战，但确实扩大了总统使用关税权力的范围。对巴西的关税是50%，相当可观，不过我不清楚他们对我们出口多少。据估计这将对巴西的GDP造成1%的影响。现在另一个收到信的新国家是加拿大，总统表示加拿大要小心，这个比例是35%。

But a lot of the Canadian trade is covered by the USMCA agreement so in practice it doesn't look like it's going to be very consequential. Canada was not included in the original liberation day trade so it does also show an opening of the new front. What's notably absent over the past week was really big trading partners like the European Union not receiving a letter. President did mention that he was going to send a letter in a couple days but it seems like they're still negotiating and so a letter could happen any time depending on how that goes.

虽然许多加拿大的贸易事务已经被《美墨加协议》（USMCA）所覆盖，因此在实际操作中似乎并不会产生重大影响。加拿大并没有被包括在最初的自由贸易日协议中，这也表明了在新的领域上有着开放的意图。值得注意的是，在过去一周中，像欧盟这样的大型贸易伙伴并没有收到信函。总统提到他将在几天内寄出信函，但看起来他们仍在协商，因此信函可能会根据谈判的进展随时发出。

Another new set of tariffs the past week was sector-wide tariffs on copper. So we have tariffs on steel and aluminum. Those are reliant upon studies done during the first term. It looks like Trump has a new study now showing that copper is a, you know, a commodity important for national security and so he's living a 50% tariff on copper. Now these rationals are important because the rationals show the how vulnerable Trump is on legal challenges.

过去一周，另一项新的关税措施是对铜的全行业关税。我们已经对钢铁和铝征收了关税，这些都是基于第一任期的研究。现在看来，特朗普有了一项新的研究，表明铜是一种对国家安全重要的商品，因此他决定对铜征收50%的关税。这些理由很重要，因为它们显示出特朗普在法律挑战面前的脆弱性。

The IEPA and emergency tariffs were challenged but these sector-wide tariffs are there on a more solid footing. Now copper traders have been anticipating copper tariffs for some time so they've been preparing for this but by all accounts many people were surprised by how large the copper tariffs were and they sent US trade to copper prices vertical basically once they were announced. Looking at comics prices against London meadow, London meadow exchange prices there's a wide premium in the US trade to copper as everyone anticipates that after the tariff prices of copper in the US are going to be a lot higher than the rest of the world obviously right.

IEPA和紧急关税受到了挑战，但这些针对整个行业的关税更为稳定。铜贸易商已经预期到铜的关税政策有一段时间了，因此他们也一直在为此准备。然而，很多人仍对铜关税的幅度之大感到惊讶，并且一旦铜关税宣布，美国的铜价几乎立即飙升。对比COMEX价格和伦敦金属交易所的价格，美国铜贸易的溢价很大，因为大家都预期在关税之后，美国的铜价显然会比世界其他地方高出很多。

And what seems to be happening is that over the past few months copper has been pouring all over the world into the US trying to get ahead of the tariffs and this has been a very, very profitable trade for many meadow's traders because as these source copper from say China or whatever the world and put them in the US after the tariffs came into effect that copper is just going to be worth more compared to the rest of the world since in order for copper to get into the US they now have to pay that 50% tariff.

过去几个月里，铜开始大量流入美国，原因似乎是为了抢在关税实施之前。这对许多金属交易商来说是一笔非常非常有利可图的买卖，因为当他们把从中国或世界其他地方采购的铜运到美国后，关税一生效，这些铜在美国的价值就会相对于世界其他地方更高。因为现在要把铜运进美国，必须支付50%的关税。

So the US is reportedly a wash in copper right now and so the US kind of companies are not going to be in need of copper for some time the rest of the world maybe possibly more scarcity there. Now it's kind of curious for Trump to do this as a rationale since obviously we're not going to be able to just dig a new copper mine suddenly right after the president could not have a third term and then we have a new president who takes off these tariffs so any investment in a copper mine in the US which to be fair takes years and years to build out would be premature.

据报道，美国目前铜供应充足，因此美国公司在一段时间内可能不会需要铜，而世界其他地区则可能面临较严重的短缺。现在，特朗普以此作为理由显得有些奇怪，因为显然我们不可能在总统不能连任之后突然开采一个新的铜矿，然后新总统上任后就取消这些关税。因此，在美国投资建造一个铜矿——这本身需要多年才能完成——将是为时过早的。

But I was listening to some smart people who discussed this and one possibility could be that the US although is not a doesn't have big copper in my eyes doesn't really produce primary copper actually exports a lot of scrap copper to the rest of the world. So if you have copper tariffs what could happen is that the US could develop capacity within itself to use that scrap copper instead of just exporting to the world and that would help in copper self-sufficiency developing capacity to manage refined scrap copper is a lot easier than digging a brand new copper mine produced primary copper concentrate so that could be irrational there.

我听了一些聪明人讨论这个话题，他们提到了一种可能性：虽然在我看来，美国并不是一个主要的铜生产国，也没有大量的原生铜生产，但实际上美国向世界其他地方出口了大量的废铜。所以，如果美国对铜征收关税，可能会促使美国在国内发展能力，以使用这些废铜，而不是仅仅出口。这将有助于提高美国在铜资源上的自给自足能力。管理精炼废铜的能力比开采全新的铜矿生产原生铜精矿要容易得多，所以这可能是一种合理的举措。

So looking at the market reaction so again very surprised that the equity market seemingly doesn't care but of course there could be other things happening there some sort of you know pinning but other markets did react to this and it reacted in an interesting way now according to standard economic theory when you have when we put on tariffs like this the dollar is supposed to strengthen and that's how it reacted before liberation day post liberation day you kind of had this change in regime whereas tariffs became dollar negative and people were seemingly kind of worried about US exposure this time around though.

看市场反应，我们非常惊讶，股市似乎不怎么在意，但当然，可能有其他因素在影响，比如某种操控。不过，其他市场对此确实有所反应，且反应方式很有趣。根据标准经济理论，当我们施加这样的关税时，美元应该会走强，在解放日之前就是这样反应的。但在解放日之后，情况发生了变化，关税对美元产生了负面影响，人们似乎对美国的风险敞口感到担忧。不过，这次情况有所不同。

And this is an encouraging note is that the market went back to a much more traditional playbook the big tariffs caused the dollar to strengthen and it also caused the bond market to sell off so it interest rates higher likely in anticipation of but potentially higher inflation which which is possible but again as we've discussed before it doesn't seem to have happened. Oh to that point though I think it's worth talking about the extra tariffs that the US has put on Japan close US trading ally which you know discussions haven't been going that well now there's some interesting data showing that auto export prices from Japan to the US year-over-year actually declined by 20%.

这段文字的大意是市场回归到更传统的模式，这是一种积极的信号。 大额关税导致美元走强，也导致债券市场抛售，因此人们预计利率可能会上升，可能的原因是通胀预期增加。不过，这种通胀并未真正发生。至于这个话题，值得一提的是，美国对其密切的贸易伙伴日本增加了额外的关税，尽管两国的谈判进展不佳。有趣的数据表明，日本对美国的汽车出口价格同比下降了20%。

Now recall we also have sector wide auto sector white tariffs globally of about 25% so what that's telling you is that the Japanese auto makers in order to remain competitive into the US they are lowering their prices by about 20% such that after the tariffs the prices that US consumers face are not impacted by the tariffs. So this is an example where the price the cost of tariffs is actually borne by the foreign exporter in other industries it would be different there will be industries where the US importer will kind of have stomach the cost with lower margins and there will be some products where the US consumer will have to pay more.

现在回想一下，我们在全球范围内的汽车行业有大约25%的统一关税。这意味着，为了在美国市场保持竞争力，日本汽车制造商会降低他们的价格大约20%，从而在加上关税后，美国消费者面临的价格不会受到影响。这是一个例子，说明在这个情况下，关税的成本实际上由外国出口商承担。在其他行业，情况可能会不同，有些行业的美国进口商可能会通过降低利润率来承担成本，而某些产品则可能会让美国消费者支付更高的价格。

This is a very complicated puzzle it's going to depend on very different dynamics but yes sometimes the tariffs are borne by the exporter and in this case it's a major item it's borne by Japanese auto exporters and I think one of the big contentions in the Japanese US trade negotiations is the sector wide autos now there's some reporting today showing suggesting that the US kind of wants these you know East Asian countries to stand up and say something that they will you know not be happy if China invades Taiwan or something like that but in any case the US continues as is shown in the case of Brazil to use tariffs in a very broad broad sense accomplishing many political geopolitical goals and not just trade goals so it looks like for now tariff man is back and no unless the equity markets or the markets have a stronger reaction it's hard to see a reason why he would change his mind in April is very clear he had to change his mind because too many people were feeling yippy as he would say.

这是一个非常复杂的难题，取决于不同的动态。但确实，有时关税由出口方承担。在这种情况下，关税由日本汽车出口商承担。我认为，在美日贸易谈判中，汽车行业是一个重要争论点。今天有一些报道显示，美国希望东亚国家能表态，如果中国入侵台湾，他们将不满。但无论如何，如巴西的例子所示，美国继续广泛使用关税达到多种政治和地缘政治目标，而不仅仅是贸易目标。目前看来，“关税人”又回来了，除非股市有较强烈的反应，否则他可能不会改变主意。在四月份，他必须改变主意，因为当时开始有太多人感到乐观，就像他说的那样。

But now what's the what's the reason to climb down so we'll see what happens in the coming weeks now one other interesting thing happened the past week was of course a breakout seemingly related to the two trade was the breakout in silver prices which is what we want to talk to next now silver prices surged on friday looks like surged about 4% and it looks like it's properly breaking out now silver I think is I find it to be personally interesting because I think of it as the original memcoin when it comes to things like you know dollar the play the basement and hyperinflation and stuff like that now all this talk we hear this over and over again the people who believe in stuff like that have largely migrated to things like crypto but it has a long history now if you look at a price of silver periodically it just surges it just surges upwards.

但是现在，我们需要看看为什么出现回落，接下来的几个星期会发生什么，还有一件有趣的事情发生在上周，就是与贸易相关的突破，银价出现了突破，这是我们接下来想讨论的。现在银价在周五大幅上涨，看起来上涨了约4%，并且似乎正在真正突破。我个人觉得银子很有趣，因为我认为它是原始的“迷因币”，类似于关于美元贬值和恶性通货膨胀之类的话题。我们经常听到这样的讨论，很多相信这些的人已经转向了加密货币，但白银有着悠久的历史。如果你看银价，它周期性地就会猛涨。

It's hit a top in $50 in the 1980s $50 again in 2010s and right now it's not close to $50 but if you look back to episodes in the 1980s you can see you have this huge surge crypto like surge in the price of silver and back then that was because the hunts brothers which were two billionaire brothers self to corner the price of silver so back then they were saying that you know the dollar is you know doing poorly we're going to have huge inflation everything's bad we got to buy hard assets and to their in their defense back then in the 1980s when they were buying this inflation was high it was like 10% new over a year so having fears of you know huge inflation currency the basement totally totally legitimate and so what they were trying to do was they were trying to buy up all the silver in the world basically cornering the market and they were doing this pretty successfully actually you can see that silver surge from a few dollars to us highest $50.

在20世纪80年代，白银价格曾达到每盎司50美元，2010年代又再次达到50美元。而现在，白银价格并没有接近50美元。不过，如果回顾80年代的情况，你会发现当时白银价格也曾经历过像加密货币一样的巨大上涨。当时的原因是亨特兄弟这对亿万富翁兄弟试图操控白银市场。那时他们声称，美元表现不佳，通货膨胀会大幅上升，情况非常糟糕，因此我们需要购买硬资产。值得为他们辩护的是，在80年代，当他们购买白银时，通货膨胀确实很高，年通胀率达到约10%。因此，对于他们来说，对高通胀和货币贬值的担忧完全是合理的。他们的目标是购买世界上所有的白银，基本上垄断市场，事实上，他们确实在相当成功地做到这一点。当时，白银价格从几美元飙升至最高50美元。

The hunts brothers were buying silver asking for physical delivery and also barring a whole bunch of money and buying even more on leverage and that was really kind of squeezing the market higher and higher so much higher that the authorities became worried you had changes in rules and the by the CFTC you had some moral suasion by the Federal Reserve trying to discourage banks to provide margin to the hunts brothers and at the end of the day that was successful right so when they're highly leveraged and prices go down a little bit and you have trouble renewing your margin loans or getting additional financing you have to sell to cover your margin and when you sell prices to go down more and that means you have you know maybe more margin calls and eventually this whole thing imploded rather rather suddenly and silver was back to back to where it was so that happened huge squeeze crypto like no fast forward to 2010 something similar happened again that again was the same people well not the same people the same kind of thinking that was post 2008.

亨特兄弟大量购买白银并要求实物交割，他们还借了一大笔钱，用杠杆买入更多白银。这种行为使市场价格不断攀升，甚至高到让有关部门感到担忧。美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）修改了相关规则，美联储也劝说银行不要向亨特兄弟提供保证金贷款。最终，这些措施起到了作用。当他们的高杠杆操作遇到价格小幅下跌时，续贷或获得额外融资就变得困难，他们不得不出售白银来偿还保证金，引发价格进一步下跌，导致更多的保证金追缴。这一切最终突然崩溃，白银价格回到原来的水平。这种市场挤压的情况类似于加密货币市场的快速波动。2010年左右，类似的事件再次发生，这次虽然不是同一帮人，但思维方式是与2008年金融危机后的情况类似。

So it was a time when the Fed was doing a lot of QE people were looking at the Fed's balance sheet and like you know we're doing hyperinflation Fed is bringing a lot of money dollars going to go to zero and so forth but at that time it was a lot less defensible inflation was very low I think we were no 2% and the Fed was worried about deflation at the time Fed was doing a lot of quantity of easing and those who had a very poor understanding of the financial system were pointing at that and suggesting imminent hyperinflation and they of course were totally wrong but in the case it did not stop them from buying silver so if you look at the price of silver back then up up up I remember because I was I was in that trade back then and it was you know went up and up and up and up and everyone was wondering how high can go you have had articles in big newspaper publications talking about you know people who kind of didn't know anything about macro just in their heart believe that silver was going to go to the moon and silver did rise all the way up to $50 so about where it was in the 1980s and then one Sunday.

那个时候是美联储进行大量量化宽松的时候，人们关注美联储的资产负债表，他们认为我们正处于恶性通货膨胀，美联储印了很多钱，美金会变得一文不值等等。然而，当时这种观点并不太有说服力，因为通货膨胀非常低，我认为大约是2%，美联储当时更担心通货紧缩。因此，美联储进行了大量量化宽松，那些对金融体系了解甚少的人将此视作即将发生恶性通货膨胀的迹象，他们当然是完全错误的，但这并没有阻止他们购买白银。所以，如果你看当时白银的价格，就是不断上涨。我还记得，因为我当时也参与了这个交易，价格越来越高，大家都在好奇到底能涨到多高。大报刊上也有文章探讨那些根本不懂宏观经济但内心确信白银将飙升的人。而白银确实一路涨到50美元，也就是大约在20世纪80年代的水平，然后有一个星期天。

Evening I remember because I saw that comics open and silver just kind of went down in a big way and that was the end of it so these things happen in silver it's a very volatile metal and before there was things that crypto it captured the imagination of retail speculators who you know who believed that there was some problem with you know inflation or explanation and something like that did you hear about the Fed no what about the Fed they announced another round of the quantitative easing what does that mean it means they are going to make large asset purchases via pomo what does that mean it means they are going to expand their balance sheet and buy treasuries what does that mean it means they are going to print a ton of money so bringing that to today it looks like silver is breaking out again gold has already reached all-time highs few few weeks ago and now silver is quite far from its all-time highs and it's searching higher and historically as we've seen in those two at these two past episodes when it goes higher oftentimes it gathers momentum a lot of people pour in and you know it could potentially go higher now the problem this time around of course you've got you have ongoing things like deficit concerns you've got ongoing things like Fed independence we'll talk about truly but you also have a lot of other assets that are absorbing the flows of people who see the world in that way specifically crypto we saw Bitcoin make all-time highs the past week so not really sure how high this will go but you know it's something that's happened in the past so that's something that I think bears looking at keep in mind of course that silver is also in part an industrial motto so it is related to things like equities and the economics that we wasn't so forth so I thought that was something interesting the past week and the last thing I want to talk about this week of course is the ongoing assault the person has on the federal reserve as we all know present Trump is not a fan of Jerome Powell sending him a large handwritten letter showing that the US interest rates are you know much higher than many of our peers and he would like it to be lower maybe 300 basis paints lower even better maybe negative after all if you borrow money and get paid know what's not to like about that now the new attack line from the allies of the president has to do with how the Fed is handling their 2.5 billion renovation of the Eccles building and the basic their headquarters in Washington DC.

晚上，我记得那天，因为我看到有漫画打开，银价突然大幅下跌，那就是结束了，所以在银市里这样的事情是会发生的。白银是一种非常不稳定的金属，在出现加密货币之前，它吸引了许多相信通胀或经济问题的零售投机者。你听说过美联储吗？没有，关于美联储有什么消息？他们宣布了新一轮量化宽松政策。这是什么意思？这意味着他们将通过公开市场操作大量购买资产。这是什么意思？这意味着他们将扩大资产负债表并购买国债。这意味着他们将印刷大量货币。 回到现在来看，银价似乎再次突破。几周前，金价已经创下历史新高，而现在银价距离其历史高点还有一段距离，但正在上涨。从历史上看，我们在过去的两次情况下看到，当银价上涨时，往往会积聚势头，很多人会涌入，银价可能会进一步上涨。当然这次的问题是，您有正在进行的赤字担忧，还有美联储的独立性问题，但您也有其他资产吸引那些具有类似世界观的资金，尤其是加密货币。我们看到比特币上周创下历史新高，所以不太确定这次银价会涨到多高，但这是过去发生过的事情，所以我认为值得关注。 当然，别忘了白银在某种程度上也是一种工业金属，因此它与股票和经济有关。我觉得这在过去一周是一个有趣的现象。本周我想讨论的最后一件事是持续对美联储的批评。众所周知，特朗普总统对杰罗姆·鲍威尔不是很满意，他给鲍威尔寄了一封大手写信，表明美国的利率比许多其他国家高，他希望能降低，也许降低300个基点，甚至更好的是达到负利率。毕竟如果借钱还能赚钱，何乐而不为呢？现在总统盟友的新攻击点是美联储如何处理他们位于华盛顿特区的总部埃克尔斯大楼25亿美元的翻修工程。

So this is something that it's not new but was picked up by the New York Post slowly back in April where and we have people who've been commenting on this where the Fed is spending 2.5 billion dollars to renovate their headquarters apparently there's going to be a huge waterfall private elevators and so forth so it seems like it's a lavish as they would say like a policy Versailles like headquarters and so to be clear to fire a Fed chair it's very difficult you have to have cause the Fed chair has to have done something you know wrong and so what some allies like housing official PULTY is saying is that you know maybe Jerome Powell did not answer his wouldn't ask about these renovations or paperwork or something like that did not do it in a proper way and so maybe that could be cause to get rid of him.

这是早在四月份由《纽约邮报》慢慢报道的一件事，虽然不是新鲜事。有一些人对此进行了评论：美联储正在花费25亿美元装修他们的总部。据说装修后会有巨大的瀑布、私人电梯等设施，看起来就像个奢华的“政策凡尔赛宫”一样。值得明确的是，要解雇美联储主席是非常困难的，必须有正当理由，主席要有明显的错误行为。一些盟友，比如住房官员PULTY表示，也许杰罗姆·鲍威尔在被询问这些装修或相关文件时没有给予合适的回应，这可能成为免职他的理由。

Now the president has been made very clear that he doesn't like Powell and that's been creating an open season for all Trump allies to go and just pile in and put pressure on Jerome Powell to quit now whether or not this will actually work I probably not I don't think so so the tactics so far have been to you know have a shadow Fed chair that could be nominated as soon as November to influence policy maybe have Scott Bessent changed the issue and structure of the treasury debt to make it more shorter to influence interest rates and now it's trying to find calls to get rid of J Powell.

现在，总统已经非常明确地表示他不喜欢鲍威尔，这让所有特朗普的盟友都纷纷出动，对杰罗姆·鲍威尔施压，要求他辞职。不过这是否会奏效，我认为可能性不大。到目前为止采取的策略是，可能在11月就提名一个影子美联储主席来影响政策，也可能让斯科特·贝森特改变国债的发行和结构，使其更短期化以影响利率，而现在他们正在寻找各种理由来让鲍威尔下台。

Now J Powell from mispersective has been pretty resolute that he's not going to stand down and I think from mispersective he thinks he's doing the right thing he thinks that monetary policy is very independent and he's basically kind of the the last guardian of the on-site regime where so many things so many institutional structures in the US have been changed being swept away and J Powell is kind of the last man standing in that old world.

从我的角度来看，杰罗姆·鲍威尔（J Powell）非常坚定，不打算退让。我认为在他看来，他相信自己在做正确的事情，他认为货币政策具有很强的独立性。基本上，他就像是旧制度的最后一名守护者，而在美国，很多体制结构都已经改变或被淘汰。杰罗姆·鲍威尔在那个旧世界中像是最后的坚守者。

Now eventually of course the Trump is going to get his new Fed chair next year but I think Powell thinks that he's doing the right thing he's not going to stand down so this if anything is probably going to make him more resolute in keeping a keeping interest rates higher so J Powell is going to these attacks I don't think are going to be effective on him but pressure is going to keep piling and I think that's worth thinking about because the president oftentimes he makes these big claims and then he negotiates something lower that's his style we've seen it over and over again he's negotiating now for 300 basis points of cuts not going to get that of course but you know whatever it is I'm thinking it's going to be lower than it would have been otherwise.

当然，特朗普明年将会任命他的新美联储主席，但我认为鲍威尔认为自己在做正确的事情，他不会轻易退让。因此，这可能会让他更加坚定地维持较高的利率。所以，我认为对他的这些攻击不会有效，但压力会不断增加。这一点值得思考，因为总统经常提出一些大的主张，然后通过谈判来达成较低的结果——这就是他的风格，我们已经多次见识过。他现在正在谈判大幅降息300个基点，但这显然不太可能实现。我想最终降幅会比原本预期的要小。

So that's something to think about when you think about monetary policy independence inflation rates the dollar currency and so forth all right so that's all I've prepared for today thanks so much for tuning in and I'll talk to you guys next week.

所以，当你考虑货币政策的独立性、通货膨胀率、美元货币等方面时，这些都是值得思考的问题。好了，这就是我今天准备的全部内容，非常感谢你的收听，我们下周再见。