Markets Weekly July 19, 2025

Hello my friends, today is July 19th and this is Market's Weekly. So this past week we didn't make new all-time highs in the equity markets, but at the end of the day it seemed like a very quiet boring summer week. However, it was the start of earnings week and we did get some drama about the Federal Reserve. So today let's talk about three things. First off, let's have an update on the health of the U.S. economy according to bank earnings reports. And secondly, let's talk about the upcoming potentially two-discence in the July FOMC meeting because Governor Waller has given an impassioned speech on why the Fed should be cutting 25 basis points in July. Let's listen to his arguments. And lastly, it seems like the President is upping pressure on Jerome Powell to either cut weights or quit. So let's think about what could happen over there.

你好，朋友们，今天是7月19日，欢迎收看《市场周报》。上周股市没有创下新高，但整体来看，似乎是个平静无聊的夏季周。然而，这是财报周的开端，我们也看到了一些关于美联储的戏剧性变化。所以，今天我们来谈谈三件事情。首先，根据银行财报，我们来更新一下美国经济的健康状况。其次，我们讨论一下即将到来的7月FOMC会议可能出现的两种分歧，因为美联储理事沃勒发表了热情洋溢的演讲，强调应该在7月降息25个基点。我们来听听他的理由。最后，似乎总统正在给杰罗姆·鲍威尔施加压力，要么降息，要么辞职。我们来思考一下这可能会带来的影响。

All right, starting with the health of the U.S. economy. So as you guys know, I think one of the best ways to understand how the U.S. economy is doing is to listen to bank earnings reports. Everyone has a bank account, banks make loans, all sorts of companies. So banks have all this data on what the U.S. economy is doing. They can look at transactions, they can look at defaults and so forth. They have their ear to the ground. And so if you listen to bank earnings reports, you can have a pretty good picture on how the U.S. economy is doing. This past week was banked. The earnings report week for the big banks. So let's listen to what they said. Let's start with JP Morgan, the largest bank in the U.S.

好的，先从美国经济的健康状况开始讲起。正如大家所知，我认为理解美国经济状况的最佳方式之一是关注银行的财报。每个人都有银行账户，银行向各种公司提供贷款，因此银行掌握着关于美国经济运行的大量数据。银行可以查看交易情况、违约情况等信息，时刻了解市场动态。所以，听取银行的财报可以让我们对美国经济有一个较清晰的了解。本周是大型银行的财报周。现在我们来听听他们的说法。我们先从美国最大银行——摩根大通开始。

So again, as is often the case, JP Morgan was asked about their assessment of the health of the U.S. consumer. And they said, you know, the U.S. consumer, we struggle to find anything wrong with them. Everything seems fine. So JP Morgan thinks everything is okay. What about Bank of America? We're looking at this data from Bank of America. They're saying the same thing. Looking at transaction volumes, transaction numbers. Everything seems to be fine. It's not accelerating, it's not decelerating, it's kind of staying where it is, growing modestly. So that suggests that everything is fine as well. So let's move on to Wells Fargo. Now Wells Fargo provided us with some pretty interesting data about the credit quality of the loans they made. Now according to them, loan quality is fine. Actually, it seems to be improving a bit. So the corporate sector, when it comes to credit quality, seems to be totally okay.

再次提到，正如常见的情况一样，JP摩根被问及他们对美国消费者健康状况的评估。他们表示，美国消费者似乎没有什么问题，一切看起来都很好。所以JP摩根认为一切正常。那么美银呢？我们查看了美银的数据，他们也持相同观点。观察交易量和交易次数，一切似乎正常，没有加速也没有减速，持平小幅增长。这也表明一切正常。那么让我们看看富国银行。富国银行为我们提供了一些关于他们所发放贷款信用质量的有趣数据。根据他们的说法，贷款质量良好，甚至似乎有所改善。因此，在信贷质量方面，公司部门看起来完全没问题。

Now let's take one look at the American Express data. Now to be clear, American Express does service a more affluent clientele. But according to their data, looking at the delinquencies and their card business, they're declining. Well, basically kind of range-bounded and definitely not deteriorating. So everything is fine from there end as well. So taking into account all this data, it's very clear that the companies that have the best data on the U.S. economy, on the U.S. consumer are saying everything is fine. And to cooperate that this past week, we also had official data on consumer spending. And it printed at a surprising 0.6% month-to-month increase much higher than any expectations. And so that suggests that, again, the U.S. consumers totally okay. But do take note though that the 0.6% monthly increase in consumer spending is in nominal terms. And because of tariffs, prices could have gone up a bit. So in real terms, maybe it's not as rosy. However, those healthy very clearly suggest that the U.S. economy at the moment is totally okay.

现在让我们来看一下美国运通的数据。需要明确的是，美国运通服务的客户群体相对比较富裕。但是根据他们的数据，查看拖欠情况和信用卡业务表现，都在好转。基本上处于一个稳定的范围，并没有恶化。所以从他们的角度来看，一切都好。综合所有这些数据，很明显，那些掌握美国经济和消费者表现最佳数据的公司都在说一切正常。为了支持这一点，上周我们还看到了官方的消费者支出数据，显示环比增加了意外的0.6%，远高于预期。这表明，美国消费者状况良好。不过需要注意的是，消费者支出0.6%的月度增长是名义上的，而且因为关税，可能价格有所上涨。所以实际情况可能没有看起来那么乐观。但是，这些健康的数据很明显暗示，目前美国经济状态良好。

And not to mention stocks are at all-time highs, right? So why would the Fed even think about cutting rates? Which brings us to our next topic, the upcoming July FOMC Descense. So I think it's been made clear by everyone that Governor Waller and Governor Bowman want rate cuts in July. Everyone else, not so much. And the market understands this, prancing in basically no change in July and just two cuts for this year. Now I must also note that Waller and Bowman are Trump appointees. However, Governor Waller is making a very principal sense. He is a central banker with a good reputation and has been correct the past few years. And he wrote a long speech, explained to everyone why he wants, he thinks it's a good idea to cut rates by 25 basis points this July.

而且更不用说，股票正处于历史新高，对吧？那么美联储为什么还会考虑降息呢？这就引出了我们的下一个话题，即即将到来的7月FOMC会议。很明显，沃勒尔州长和鲍曼州长希望在7月降息，而其他人似乎不太赞同。但市场对此心知肚明，基本预期7月份不会有任何变化，而今年只会有两次降息。我还要强调一点，沃勒尔和鲍曼是特朗普任命的。然而，沃勒尔州长表达了非常有原则的观点。他是一位声誉良好的中央银行家，过去几年里一直判断准确。他还写了一篇长篇演讲，向大家解释为什么他认为在今年7月降息25个基点是个好主意。

So let's listen to what he has to say. Well, first off, he's telling you that the U.S. economy is weakening. It's not super strong. So according to his estimates, GDP growth for the first half is about 1% in probably going to be around that for the second half as well, which will make the U.S. grow at below potential. Now recall, first quarter GDP growth was negative. Second quarter we don't have the numbers yet, but according to the Atlanta GDP now cast, it's estimated to be about 2%. So Waller's 1% growth for the first half, not unreasonable. And he's suggesting further weakness for the second half based on his estimates and also looking at software qualitative data.

所以，让我们听听他要说什么。首先，他告诉你，美国经济正在减弱，并不是非常强劲。根据他的估计，前半年的GDP增长大约是1%，而且后半年的增长可能也在这个水平，这将使美国的经济增长低于潜力。回想一下，第一季度的GDP增长是负的。第二季度的数字我们还没有，但根据亚特兰大的GDP即时预测，估计大约是2%。因此，沃勒所说的前半年的1%增长率并不是不合理的。根据他的估计，并结合一些软件定性数据，他还预示着下半年将进一步疲软。

So one of the things he's looking at is the Fed's Beigebook, which is the Fed's intelligence collection program where they go out and they talk to businesses throughout the country and compile what businesses are saying about their current circumstances. And according to the latest Beigebook, a lot of companies are selling that growth is moderating or weakening. So things look like they're slowing down. Now Waller also points to consumer spending data to show that consumer spending just isn't strong.

他正在关注的事情之一是美联储的米黄色报告，这份报告是美联储的情报收集程序，他们会去全国各地与企业交流，汇编企业对当前状况的看法。根据最新的米黄色报告显示，很多公司表示增长正在放缓或减弱。看起来经济增速正在减慢。同时，沃勒还指出消费者支出数据，表明消费者支出也不够强劲。

Now we did have that strong number last month that we talked about, but if you zoom out, you also notice that in the past few months we've also had a few negative numbers as well. So when you average them all out, consumer spending for the first half of this year doesn't look that strong. So the backdrop is the U.S. economy is slowing and going to grow below potential this year. Now the Fed's mandate of course is full employment and price stability.

上个月我们确实有一个不错的数字，我们也谈论过这个，但如果你放眼整体来看，会发现过去几个月我们也有一些负面数据。所以把这些数据平均起来看，今年上半年消费者支出并不算强劲。因此，美国经济整体是在放缓，今年的增速可能低于潜力。当然，美联储的任务是实现充分就业和物价稳定。

So what does Waller say about full employment? Now according to him, the labor market is not as strong as it appears to be. So last month we did have a good job report. Unemployment rate is at 4.1%. And we had a much stronger than expected job creation number. However, as we discussed last time, a lot of those jobs were basically public sector jobs, like school teachers and so forth.

那么，沃勒对充分就业有何看法呢？根据他的说法，劳动力市场并不像表面上看起来那么强劲。上个月的就业报告确实不错，失业率为4.1%，新创造的工作岗位数量也远超预期。然而，如同我们上次讨论的那样，其中很多工作岗位实际上都是公共部门的，例如学校教师等。

When you look at private sector employment growth, it's actually down a lot. It was only 70,000. And Waller thinks that maybe part of the reason you showed to strong public sector job growth was just due to adjustments in the data, seasonal adjustments that are difficult to manage sometimes. Now he also points out that if you look at the unemployment rate for new grads, it's been trending higher. So new grads are having a harder and harder time finding jobs.

当你查看私营部门的就业增长时，实际上下降了很多。增长人数只有70,000。而沃勒认为，公共部门就业增长强劲的部分原因可能是数据调整，尤其是有时难以管理的季节性调整。 他还指出，如果你查看新毕业生的失业率，会发现它在逐渐上升。这意味着新毕业生找工作越来越难。

So also of course we also note that in the past job growth has often been revised lower. In fact, if you look at all the revisions, it's possible that we didn't really create any private sector jobs for the first few months. So the job market according to Waller is on thin ice. It's something that we should be cautious about. If the labor market is slowing, what about inflation? Now the big wild card inflation has been tariffs.

当然，我们也注意到，过去的就业增长数据经常被下调。实际上，如果查看所有的修正数据，可能我们在最初几个月并没有真正创造出任何私营部门的工作。因此，Waller认为就业市场如履薄冰，我们对此应该保持谨慎。如果劳动市场正在放缓，那么通货膨胀会怎么样呢？目前，通货膨胀最大的未知因素是关税。

And you see many people on the FOMC saying that we can't cut rates because tariffs are going to put inflation higher. And so we've got to be mindful of that. Now Waller is not concerned about that because according to standard economic theory, tariffs have a one time increase in the price level but don't impact inflation. So what does that mean? So let's say that you have a 50% tariff.

翻译如下： 你会看到很多联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）的成员说，我们不能降息，因为关税会让通货膨胀上升，所以我们需要注意这一点。但是，Waller对此并不担心，因为根据标准的经济理论，关税会导致物价水平一次性上升，但不会影响通货膨胀。那么这是什么意思呢？假设你有一个50%的关税。

Let's say that gets passed on to the consumer and that means prices for that good go up. But next year though, that 50% tariff doesn't become any higher. At least I don't think anyone expects it to go even higher. So next year prices don't increase by that same level, same amount, same percentage. Or maybe don't stone even increase at all. It's a kind of a one time upward shift in the price level rather than a change in the rate of change, which is what inflation is.

假设这部分成本转嫁给消费者，这意味着商品的价格会上涨。但到了明年，这50%的关税不会再继续提高。至少我觉得没有人预计它会更高。所以明年价格不会再以同样的水平、同样的数量、同样的百分比上涨。或者可能根本就不会再上涨。这是一种一次性的价格水平上调，而不是像通货膨胀那样表现为价格变化速度的变化。

And this is super, super consensus standard macroeconomics, standard central banking talk and Jay Powell used to think this way as well. So from Waller's perspective, having these tariffs really should be impact how the central bank views inflation, the central bank should look through it. However, he also notes that through his conversations, he's talking to a lot of businesses and so forth, he thinks that about, you know, a third of the tariffs will be absorbed by the exporter, a third by the business and a third by the consumer.

这段话用中文翻译为：这是非常标准的宏观经济学和中央银行谈话内容，杰伊·鲍威尔曾经也是这样认为的。从沃勒的角度来看，这些关税确实会影响中央银行对通货膨胀的评估，但中央银行应当透过这些表面现象看待问题。然而，他也指出，通过与很多企业的对话交流，他认为大约三分之一的关税将由出口商承担，三分之一由企业承担，剩下的三分之一由消费者承担。

So even if these tariffs, you know, stay on, the consumer is only bear a fraction of it. And at the end of the day, it's only going to have a temporary increase in PCE. And according to his studies, looking at where PCE is today, if you strip out the tariff effects, we're basically already at 2%. And to add on to that, Waller also notes that inflation expectations as he views them are totally stable.

所以，即使这些关税持续存在，消费者也只需要承担其中的一小部分。最终，这只会导致个人消费支出（PCE）暂时增加。根据他的研究来看，如果不考虑关税效应，我们现在的PCE其实已经基本达到2%。另外，沃勒还提到，按照他的观点，通胀预期非常稳定。

And he seems to place more weight on market measures of inflation expectations. So for example, the five year, five year inflation swaps basically an estimate of what five year inflation will be five years from today. When you look at where the market is trading this, you'll notice that the market is not worried about, you know, high inflation at all. It's basically been that five year, five year inflation has basically been where it's been for the past few years.

他似乎更重视市场对通胀预期的衡量。例如，"五年-五年"通胀互换是一种估算，将来五年的通胀水平会是怎样。当你查看市场对此的交易情况时，会注意到市场对高通胀根本不担心。实际上，"五年-五年"的通胀预期基本上保持在过去几年的水平。

It's kind of range bound. So if inflation, if tariffs are just going to be, you know, transitory and maybe not fully passed through, and inflation expectations are stable, Fed really shouldn't be worrying about inflation. So from his perspective, labor market is weakening inflation is okay. Now the last piece of his puzzle is the stance of monetary policy.

这有点像在一个范围内波动。因此，如果通胀和关税只是暂时的，可能不会完全传导，而通胀预期保持稳定，美联储就不应该过于担心通胀。所以从他的角度来看，劳动力市场在走弱，而通胀没问题。现在，他需要考虑的最后一个因素是货币政策的立场。

So when the Fed makes a decision, high creates or lower rates, it has to have a reference point. So, and this reference point is commonly called the neutral rate. So basically, if interest rates are above neutral, you're being restrictive, you're slowing the economy down, and if interest rates are below neutral, you are easing. So you're trying to speed the economy up. Now according to Waller, he's like, you know, people on the FOMC, they think that the neutral rate is about 3%. And right now, say we're like, you know, 125, 150 basis points above that. So that doesn't make sense. We should be much closer to neutral because after all, labor market is slowing, growth is slowing and inflation is basically a target. So it doesn't make sense for us to be so restrictive. That is his argument. And I think this is totally, totally reasonable. There's, and there are many people who think this way.

所以，当美联储做出决策时，无论是提高还是降低利率，都需要一个参考点。这个参考点通常被称为中性利率。基本上，如果利率高于中性利率，就被视为紧缩政策，会让经济减速；而如果利率低于中性利率，就是宽松政策，试图加速经济发展。根据沃勒的说法，美联储公开市场委员会（FOMC）的成员认为中性利率大约是3%。但目前我们实际上高出这个水平大约125到150个基点。因此，这样的政策显得不太合理。我们应该更接近中性利率，因为毕竟，劳动力市场正在放缓，经济增长减速，而通胀基本达到了目标。所以我们不应该采取如此紧缩的政策。这是他的观点，我认为非常合理，也有很多人持相同看法。

Now there are others who will say that Governor Waller is just saying this because he wants to be a Fed chair. He actually gave an interview and let's hear what he listened to, what he said. You've been nominated by this president for the seat on the board. Yes. You were previously director of research for Jim Pillard, way back then. Is it a position you would like? Is it something you would like to do in the future? Look, in 2019, the president contacted me and said, would you serve? And I said, yes, if the president contacted me and said, I want you to serve, I would do it. But he's not contacting me. What's safety does? If he says Chris, I want you to do the job. I'll say, yes, but he's not talking to me. So that's it. So yes, yes.

现在，有些人会说，州长沃勒之所以这么说，只是因为他想成为美联储主席。他实际上接受了一次采访，让我们来听听他是怎么说的。你已经被现任总统提名为董事会的成员。是的。你之前是吉姆·皮尔德的研究主管，那是很久以前的事了。你想要这个职位吗？这是你将来想做的吗？听着，在2019年，总统联系了我，问我愿不愿意服务，我说愿意。如果总统联系我，说“我希望你来任职”，我会同意。但他现在没有联系我。要是他对我说，克里斯，我想让你来做这份工作。我会答应，但他现在没有找我。所以就是这样。所以，是的，是的。

Of course, he would like to be a Fed chair. Who wouldn't want to be a Fed chair? But I think what's also insightful is that he made his pitch in that interview, why it should be him. I mean, at the end of the day, the president, whoever they choose, you're going to have to have somebody has credibility with the markets. Or you will see as Jonathan was talking about, you're going to see inflation expectations. You will not get lower interest rates. You will get higher interest rates. This is well known. We've seen this everywhere around the world when this happens. And I mean, I know Scott doesn't know this. So this is not something that is lost on anybody. So he's saying that you hire one of your yesesmen to be Fed chair, markets will revolt. But markets trust me. And that's a good pitch.

当然，他想成为美联储主席。谁不想成为美联储主席呢？但我觉得更有见地的是，他在那次采访中陈述了为什么应该选择他。我是说，最终，由总统来决定，无论他们选谁，都必须是市场信任的人。否则，就像乔纳森说的，你会看到通胀预期上升，利率不会降反而会上升。这是众所周知的情况，当这样的事发生时，全世界都已经有过经验。我知道斯科特对此并不知情，所以这不是任何人都会忽略的事情。因此，他的意思是，如果你任命一个唯命是从的人当美联储主席，市场会做出负面反应。而市场信任我，这就是个好的理由。

And as far as I hear, though, Wallard doesn't have a strong relationship with the team Trump. So not impossible, but at the moment, not super likely. Although, I think he would be a good fit chair, which kind of moves us to our last topic. So the president is very much putting the pressure on JP, calling him too late and really trying to run him out of Fed. Now, this past week, there was kind of a surprise headline where it seemed reporting suggest that Trump was going to fire Prop Howe imminently. He had this letter that he was showing to lawmakers, saying that, yeah, this is this letter to fire J. Powell. What do you guys think? And this is actually pretty classic of Trump to do that. Trump wants to do something. He talks to a lot of people. He really wants to have a lot of input to make sure that, you know, get, make a good decision. And I think in part, it's also to kind of socialize this potential action to people so that they don't, they won't get super freaked out.

据我所知，沃勒德与特朗普团队的关系并不密切。因此，这种情况并非不可能，但目前来看并不是很可能。尽管如此，我认为他是一个合适的主席人选，这也把我们引向最后一个话题。总统正在对杰罗姆·鲍威尔施加很大压力，指责他行动太迟，并试图将他赶出美联储。上周有一个意外头条新闻，报道称特朗普打算立即解雇鲍威尔。他向议员们展示了一封信，据说那就是要解雇鲍威尔的信。你们怎么看？这其实很符合特朗普的一贯作风。他想做某事的时候，会和很多人交流意见，确保做出一个好的决定。我认为部分原因也是为了让大家对这一潜在的行动有个心理准备，以免引起过度惊慌。

Now, the market totally freaked out at this headline. When you had a classic capital flight move where you had the dollar sell off, equity sell off, and Bonnie of spike. So I don't know if this will happen, but if this were to happen, if, if Chair Powell would be fired by Trump, it would be a market negative event. Don't doubt it. So the president's allies have also joined in and it seems like it's, they're building a case to try to get rid of Powell on the grounds that Powell is mismanaging the Fed. So director Vaughn of, in the White House, sent a letter to Joe Powell and highlighted here saying you that, you know, you're not doing a good job. And the reason is that, you know, Chair Powell is spending a lot of money renovating the Fed building, spending too much money and not doing a good job. And maybe using that as a reason to push him out.

现在，市场对这一头条新闻感到极度恐慌。出现了典型的资本外逃现象，美元下跌，股市下挫，债券收益率飙升。我不知道这种情况是否会发生，但如果这种情况发生，如果鲍威尔主席被特朗普解雇，那将是市场的一个负面事件，毫无疑问。总统的盟友们也加入进来，他们似乎正在构建理由，试图以鲍威尔管理美联储不当为由将他免职。白宫的沃恩主任致信乔·鲍威尔，强调说你没有做好工作，理由是鲍威尔主席花费大笔资金翻新美联储大楼，花钱太多而工作做得不好，可能以此作为逼他离职的理由。

And you also have a lot of pressure from FHFA director Poulty, who's, who's kind of been spearheading this effort. I think he was the one who wrote that letter that President Trump was showing around. Director Poulty, of course, cares a lot about housing affordability. He is director of FHFA and also, of course, he is heir to Poulty Homes, which is one of the largest home builders in the U.S.

你也面临来自FHFA（联邦住房金融局）局长Poulty的巨大压力。他一直在推动这项工作，我觉得他就是写那封信给特朗普总统的人。Poulty局长非常关注住房的负担能力问题。他不仅是FHFA的负责人，当然他还是美国最大住宅建筑公司之一Poulty Homes的继承人。

Now monetary policy to FHFA is clearly restrictive when it comes to things like housing. So for example, house prices nationally look like they're declining. And if you look at housing starts, they've also declined as well. So even though the stock market is at all time highs, industries that are very clearly interest rate sensitive have not been doing well. And that seems to be what the President is thinking about.

目前，对于联邦住房金融局（FHFA）来说，货币政策在住房方面显得相当紧缩。例如，全国房价似乎在下跌，如果你查看住房开工率，也在下降。所以，即使股市处于历史高位，那些对利率非常敏感的行业表现并不好。这似乎正是总统所关注的问题。

And obviously it has a strong background in real estate. And in the real estate segment, they're interest rate sensitive, especially if you're commercial. Because a lot of commercial loans are for a few years and then you roll it. And a lot of the loans taking it out at very low interest rates a few years ago. Today, if they were to be renewed, are going to be several hundred basis points higher.

显然，它在房地产领域有着强大的背景。在房地产领域，他们对利率非常敏感，尤其是商业地产。因为许多商业贷款的期限只有几年，然后需要重新贷款。一些贷款在几年前是以非常低的利率借出的，如今如果要续借，利率将会上升几个百分点。

So from what I understand, there is some real stress in certain segments of the commercial real estate market like multi-family apartment buildings and stuff like that. So that could be what's driving the President to try to cut rates. At the moment, I think that people don't think that this will happen, but it's always hard to say.

根据我的理解，商业房地产市场的某些领域，比如多户住宅楼等，确实面临一些压力。这可能是促使总统试图降低利率的原因。目前，我认为人们普遍认为这可能不会发生，但这种事情总是很难预料。

It's very clear that there's a team of people in the White House who have prepared Plan B, whereas they can go with trying with this moving chair power for cause on the basis of this renovation and stuff, should the President decide to do so. Sure there's also many smart people in the White House telling the President that this will be bad for the markets, which the President acknowledges at the moment as I understand Secretary Besen is actually far away in Tokyo. So he's not able to offer advice on this, but something to keep in mind.

很明显，白宫有一个团队已经准备好了备选方案，以便在需要时可以依靠这次因装修等原因的职位调动权力实施计划B。如果总统决定这样做的话。当然，白宫也有很多聪明的人在告诉总统这对市场不利，而据我所知，总统目前也同意这一观点，因为贝森部长此时其实人在东京，无法对此提供建议，但这是需要注意的事情。

Now I think though, my best guess is that if this were to happen, it probably happened after the Fed, after Trump has an idea of who the next Fed chair would be, so that there wouldn't be some kind of vacuum. If Chair Powell were removed, I think the chairmanship would move to Vice Chair Jefferson through I think that's the procedure, but ultimately naming the President's next potential Fed chair, I think would give the market clarity and I think of a more stability.

现在，我认为，如果这种情况真的发生，我的最佳猜测是，它可能会在特朗普对下任美联储主席人选有了想法之后发生，这样就不会出现某种空缺。如果鲍威尔主席被免职，我认为主席职位会暂时由副主席杰斐逊接任，因为我认为这是程序规定。但最终，任命总统下任美联储主席的人选，我认为能够为市场提供清晰性，并带来更多的稳定。

So don't know if this will happen. President is having a bad new cycle with all these talk about Epstein and so forth. So we'll see what he does. I think it's unlikely, but not impossible. All right, so that's all I prepared for today. Thanks much for tuning in. Talk to you next week.

所以不太确定这是否会发生。关于总统与爱普斯坦的各种传闻，让他最近的新闻情况不太好。所以我们看看他会怎么做。我觉得不太可能，但也不是不可能。好了，这就是我今天准备的全部内容。非常感谢您的收听。下周再见。