Why This Russian Drone Developer Isn’t Impressed by U.S. Tech
发布时间 2025-05-19 20:00:16 来源
What would you say that Russian Ukraine are now the team most advanced countries when it comes to drone development? Absolutely. The American sense switch blades turned out to be total junk. Yes, a good idea. If we're talking about what actually worked from the West in this war, it's Starlink. But if you take Starlink away from Ukraine, their naval drones are done. The Chinese unveiled their own version of a heavy drone. The problem with Chinese weapons is they build everything like it's a toy. Early in the war, most injuries and deaths came from artillery. Now it seems like 70% of casualties are from drones. When it comes to protecting foot soldiers, the only real defense is to run fast. Backpacked jammers are useless. Is there any counter-measure against fiber optic drones? Nope. Ukrainian vehicles roll up, and the drone launches just 15 meters away. Because Ukrainian drivers don't stand a chance. That was pure health for the Ukrainians.
俄罗斯和乌克兰现在在无人机发展方面是最先进的国家吗？绝对是。美国的Switchblade无人机被证明完全没用，虽然想法不错。在这场战争中，西方真正有效的只有Starlink。不过，如果把Starlink从乌克兰拿走，他们的海军无人机也就没了用武之地。中国也推出了他们版本的重型无人机，但中国产品的问题是它们造得像玩具。在战争初期，大多数伤亡来自于炮击，但现在似乎有70%的伤亡来自无人机。在保护地面士兵方面，唯一的防御就是快速撤离。背包式干扰器没什么用。有针对光纤无人机的反制措施吗？没有。乌克兰的车辆靠近，然后在距离仅15米的地方放飞无人机，因为乌克兰的驾驶员没有其他机会。这对乌克兰人来说是实打实的支援。
There's that viral video, our Russian drone operator, sitting in Moscow, flying a drone somewhere over Donbass. Operators aren't exactly athletes, most are gamers. And now they're expected to lug around body armor into helmet. One of the most infamous Ukrainian drones, at least in Russia, is Babayaga. About a year ago, the Ukrainians figured out how to drop anti-tank mines from Babayaga. That explosion is very convincing. What about the Iran drones? Ukrainians keep calling them Shaheds. They're wrong. These drones are far beyond Shaheds at this point. What exactly is a drone interceptor? It's a drone built specifically to take down other drones, mainly high altitude ones.
最近有一个病毒视频，展示了一位俄罗斯无人机操作员，他坐在莫斯科，却在远隔千里的顿巴斯上空操作无人机。操作员通常不是运动员，大多是游戏玩家。现在，他们不得不全副武装，穿上防弹衣戴上头盔。在俄罗斯，乌克兰的一款著名无人机叫做Babayaga。大约一年前，乌克兰人学会了用Babayaga投放反坦克地雷，那种爆炸的效果非常震撼。那么伊朗的无人机呢？乌克兰人一直称它们为Shaheds，但这不准确。这些无人机的性能远超Shaheds。那么什么是无人机拦截器？它是一种专门设计用来击落其他无人机的飞行器，主要针对高空目标。
Where does he drone technology going in the next 10 years? Private developers simply because they're more flexible and more motivated can innovate much faster. Way faster than these slow, clunky, state-owned enterprises, where half the staff is just there to collect the paycheck. My today's guest is Siddegay, a Russian engineer and entrepreneur developing military drones for the Russian army. At the start of the war, Russia was embarrassingly behind in drone warfare. But as the battlefield evolved, private startups like Siddegays stepped in to help Moscow catch up. Now, Russia is closing the gap with Ukraine, not just in the number of drones, but in their quality and tactical innovation.
他未来十年将无人机技术发展到哪里？私人开发者因为更加灵活且动力十足，可以更快地进行创新。这比那些运行缓慢、死板的国有企业要快得多，因为这些企业里有一半的员工只是为了领工资而存在。今天我的嘉宾是Siddegay，一位为俄罗斯军队研发军事无人机的俄罗斯工程师和企业家。战争初期，俄罗斯在无人机战争方面明显落后。但随着战场形势的发展，像Siddegay这样的私人初创企业介入，协助莫斯科迎头赶上。现在，俄罗斯不仅在无人机数量上缩小了与乌克兰的差距，还在质量和战术创新上取得了进展。
What makes this conversation stand out is Siddegays' perspective. He's not part of the military, which gives him a rare level of freedom to speak openly. His insights into modern and future drone warfare are sharp and at times surprisingly candid. This interview was recorded in Russian. I've translated and dubbed it into English using AI tools made possible by the generous support of my patrons. If you prefer to listen in the original Russian, there is a link in the description below. Now, let's dive in. Siddegay. Hi, could you tell us where we are and what do you do here? This is one of our design bureaus. I won't say exactly where it's located for obvious reasons. This is where we put together small batches of experimental models, drones and other tech that are still in development.
这段对话的特别之处在于Siddegay的视角。他不是军方人士，这使得他拥有一种难得的自由，可以公开发表看法。他对于现代和未来无人机战争的见解非常敏锐，而且有时出乎意料地直言不讳。这次采访是用俄语录制的，我使用AI工具将其翻译并配音成英语，这感谢我支持者们的慷慨资助。如果你更喜欢听原版俄语，可以通过下面描述中的链接收听。现在，让我们开始吧。Siddegay，你好，能告诉我们这里是哪里以及你在这里是做什么的吗？这是我们其中一个设计局。出于显而易见的原因，我不会具体说明它的所在地。这里是我们组装少量实验模型、无人机和其他仍在开发中的技术的地方。
These prototypes are used in a wide range of scientific and technical fields, so to speak. From what you're allowed to show, what are you currently working on? I noticed you've got something over there, all wrapped up. Can I take a closer look? That's one of our heavy-class experimental drones currently prepped for a test run. Unfortunately, I can't reveal much about it just yet. We're still under certain restrictions. I just noticed the propellers. I've never seen anything like that. They're made of wood. That? It's a book. Yes, they are. Beach would, to be precise. It might seem unusual today, but wooden propellers are actually part of aviation history. That's how it all started.
这些原型可用于广泛的科学和技术领域，可以这么说。根据你可以透露的内容，你目前在研究什么呢？我注意到你那边有个用布包着的东西。我可以仔细看看吗？
那是我们的一款重型实验无人机，正准备进行试飞。不过，很遗憾，现在我不能透露太多细节。我们仍受某些限制。
我刚注意到那些螺旋桨。我从未见过这样的设计。它们是用木头做的。
是的，确切地说是用榉木做的。虽然今天看起来有些不寻常，但木质螺旋桨其实是航空历史的一部分，最初就是这样开始的。
And in the context of real, large-scale warfare military equipment becomes very utilitarian, very fast, a wooden propeller is around 10 times cheaper to produce than a carbon fiber one. And in terms of performance, you're only losing about 4% to 5% in efficiency. Plus, in Russia, wood is abundant and relatively inexpensive. These specific propellers cost us roughly $30 a piece. Russia is, in Russia, there is Ralagwanza. A huge state-owned enterprise that's been mass-producing tanks and armored vehicles for decades. Why don't Russia have something like that for drones? Instead, it seems like drones are being developed by small design bureaus like yours, and there are tons of them, mostly private initiatives, pushing prototypes all the way to the front lines.
在实际的大规模战争背景下，军事装备变得非常实用且快速生成。木质螺旋桨的生产成本大约比碳纤维螺旋桨便宜十倍。在性能方面，你只损失约4%到5%的效率。而且，在俄罗斯，木材资源丰富且相对便宜。这些特定的螺旋桨每个成本大约30美元。在俄罗斯，有一家叫Ralagwanza的大型国有企业，几十年来一直在大量生产坦克和装甲车辆。为什么俄罗斯没有类似的大型企业来生产无人机呢？相反，看起来无人机的开发主要由像你们这样的设计小公司来推动，而且大多是私人发起的，直接将原型推向前线。
Why did things evolve this way? Well, it seems like the Russian Army didn't get the memo, because the vast majority of our armed forces first heard the word UAV in 2022. That's when the concept finally clicked for them. But the thing is, we've had a slow-burn conflict in the Donbass since 2014. And throughout that time, drones were being used for reconnaissance, for dropping explosives. There were even early versions of kamikaze drones, but back then, funding was weak, and the idea of sending a drone on a one-way mission just seemed too expensive. I'll admit, I thought the same way at the time, but I was wrong.
为什么事情会这样发展呢？似乎俄罗斯军队并没有及时了解情况，因为我们的武装力量大多数人在2022年才第一次听到“无人机”这个词。那时候，他们终于明白了这个概念。但实际上，自2014年以来，顿巴斯地区一直处于缓慢的冲突状态。在这段时间里，无人机被用于侦察和投放炸药。甚至还有早期版本的自杀式无人机，但当时资金不足，而让无人机执行一次性任务的想法似乎太昂贵。我承认，当时我也有同样的看法，但事实证明我是错的。
Here's the thing. When you shift the perspective and calculate based on the cost of the target being destroyed, drones turn out to be incredibly cheap, with just two or three drones, costing around $1,000, $2,000, $3,000 total. You can take out an entire tank or an infantry-fighting vehicle, a humvee can often be destroyed with a single hit. And by the way, a special thanks to our Western partners, because where else could we have trained on so much of your equipment? You delivered it straight to the front, and we got to study it up close. We figured out all the weak points. We learned exactly where to strike.
事情是这样的。当你转换视角，从目标被摧毁的成本来计算时，会发现无人机非常便宜。只需两到三个无人机，总共只花费约1000、2000、3000美元，就能摧毁一辆坦克或步兵战车，而一辆悍马通常只需一击就能被毁。而且，特别感谢我们的西方伙伴，因为我们在哪里才能有机会在这么多你们的装备上训练呢？你们直接把装备送到了前线，我们得以近距离研究。我们找出了所有的弱点，了解了该打击的确切位置。
For example, we learned where to hit the Abrams tank, so that it's a rear turret compartment, the part that stores the ammo, goes up in flames every time. We also figured out how to disable it completely. It's most vulnerable spot, the turbine. No question, or somewhere, we see a mist of the turbine. So you're saying Russia's military was light to the game, the only realized recently that drones are essential, that they need different types of them and a lot of them, because the Russians didn't have an established drone industry. They had no choice but to turn to the private sector, to small teams like yours.
例如，我们学会了如何攻击艾布拉姆斯坦克，打击后方的炮塔舱，那是存放弹药的地方，这样每次都会引发火灾。我们还找到了完全瘫痪它的方法。它最脆弱的地方是涡轮机。这毫无疑问，或者在某个地方，我们可以看到涡轮的薄雾。也就是说，俄罗斯的军事反应滞后，他们直到最近才意识到无人机的重要性，了解到他们需要不同类型的大量无人机。由于俄罗斯没有成熟的无人机产业，他们不得不求助于私营部门，依靠像你们这样的团队。
No, unfortunately, no doubt. That's exactly how it played out. The Russian military completely underestimated the importance of drones, but to be fair, I think it's worth noting that no one was really prepared for this kind of war. Even the West, you know, what, with all its tech and funding, or what wasn't ready. Honestly, there is a single Western drone that's proven itself effective in this conflict. Take the American Switchblade drones, for example, they sent them to Ukraine and they turned out to be total garbage. The Switchblade 300, it's a joke. That thing might be okay for chasing camels in the desert. If it hits an infantry soldier in proper armor, maybe it'll wound them, but it won't take him out.
不，遗憾的是，确实如此。这就是事情发展的实际情况。俄军完全低估了无人机的重要性，但公平地说，我认为值得指出的是，没有人真正为这种战争做好准备。甚至西方国家，尽管拥有先进技术和充足资金，也并未做好准备。老实说，在这场冲突中，还没有一款西方的无人机被证明是有效的。比如美国的Switchblade无人机，他们把它们送到乌克兰，结果是完全没用。Switchblade 300简直是个笑话。那东西可能还算适合在沙漠里追赶骆驼。如果击中装备适当的步兵，也许能造成伤害，但无法将其击倒。
The Switchblade 600 is a bit more capable, but it's insanely expensive. In practice, though, it's just not worth the cost. You're burning through high-value gear for minimal gain. As far as I know, it's only been used about 10 times in Ukraine, total, that tells you everything you need to know. Now, as you remember hearing about the Phoenix Ghosts, yeah, there were quite a few names being thrown around. Another one was the Scan Eagle, a drone developed by Boeing. I've actually got a piece of one lying around in my lab. I don't even know how to describe it. It's like it was built in a high school workshop.
Switchblade 600性能稍微强一些，但价格高得离谱。然而，实际上，它的价值并不值得高昂的成本付出。你在消耗高价值装备却几乎没有得到什么收益。据我所知，它在乌克兰总共只使用过大约10次，这已经说明了问题。你可能还记得Phoenix Ghosts，当时有很多名字被提到。另一个是Scan Eagle，这是波音公司开发的一种无人机。我实际上在实验室里有这东西的一部分。我甚至不知道怎么去形容它。就像是一个高中工坊里建造出来的东西。
It's so slap-dash on everything's held together with zip ties and cheap Chinese glue. And this is a product from Boeing, and it costs the same as half a tank. On the Ukrainian side, most of the drones you see flying are locally made. They've got models like the Lelecha, the Fury, the Valkyrie. Even the Ukrainians gave up on Western drones. Sure, they were supplied with some early on, but the Russians jammed them almost immediately. After that, Ukraine started making their own. And honestly, Ukrainian drones are outperforming the entire Western lineup.
这段话可以翻译成中文如下：
“一切都做得草草了事，全都用拉链带和廉价的中国胶水凑合在一起。而这还是波音的产品，价格却和半辆坦克差不多。在乌克兰方面，你看到的大多数正在飞行的无人机都是本地制造的，他们有像Lelecha、Fury和Valkyrie这样的型号。就连乌克兰人也放弃了西方的无人机。当然，他们早期确实收到了一些，但几乎立刻就被俄罗斯干扰了。之后，乌克兰开始自己制造无人机。说实话，乌克兰的无人机表现优于整个西方的产品线。”
Why do you think the West would have some smart people working on this stuff? Of course, but the problem is structural. The Americans, for example, for decades, they've been chasing camels, as we say. They haven't faced a real military with serious weapons and tactics since World War II. Now they're up against an actual adversary in Russia. And their systems just aren't holding up. Now we know the US isn't fighting us directly. They're keeping their distance, offering support here and there, doing things half-heartedly, maybe just testing the waters.
你认为为什么西方会有聪明的人参与这些事情呢？当然有，但问题是结构性的。比如，美国人几十年来一直在“追逐骆驼”，也就是说，他们自二战以来就没有面对过拥有严肃武器和战术的真正军队。现在，他们面对的是俄罗斯这样真正的对手，他们的系统根本无法支撑。不过我们知道，美国没有直接与我们交战。他们保持距离，只是这里那里提供一些支持，做事也不全力以赴，可能只是在试探情况。
Their defense industry and scientific community aren't even fully engaged. Probably only 5% of their capacity is aimed at us. But even that small slice, it's completely flopped. That 5% has utterly failed to show any real results. I get to see a lot of captured drones, and I'm always curious to see how Ukrainian engineers are thinking so far. The most consistent thing I've seen is their obsession with national colors. Yellow and blue wires everywhere. They even use colored electrical tape and flag colors. Everything's wrapped in it.
他们的国防工业和科学界并没有完全投入运作。可能只有5%的资源是针对我们的。但即使是那5%，也完全没能取得任何实质性成果。我见到很多被俘获的无人机，我总是很好奇乌克兰工程师目前的思维方式。我注意到最明显的一点就是他们对国旗颜色的执着。到处都是黄蓝色的电线。他们甚至用彩色电工胶带和国旗颜色来包裹。所有东西都裹上了这些颜色。
These here, this is debris from a Ukrainian drone. Unfortunately, it worked. Do they have a name for this drone? It's just a basic Chinese drone, the entire internal stack. It's all Chinese. We study some of their drones in great detail, others less so. So this one, for example, had a really poor circuit design. But to be fair, they do have some very good drones, too. So would it be fair to say that right now, Russia and Ukraine are the two most advanced countries when it comes to drone development? Absolutely. And honestly, I'd even put you, Ukraine, slightly ahead of us, not simply because they move faster. The way their system is set up makes it much easier for private developers to work directly with the military. That allows them to design and field new solutions more quickly. They can push a prototype to the front line in no time.
这些是来自乌克兰无人机的残骸。不幸的是，它确实发挥了作用。他们为这种无人机命名了吗？这只是一个基础的中国无人机，内部的所有部件都是中国制造的。我们对他们的一些无人机进行了详细研究，也有一些研究得比较少。比如这一款，它的电路设计很差。不过公平地说，他们也确实拥有一些非常好的无人机。那么，现在是否可以说俄罗斯和乌克兰是无人机开发最先进的两个国家？绝对可以。坦率地说，我甚至认为乌克兰稍微领先于我们，不仅因为他们行动更迅速。他们的系统设置使得私人开发者能够更容易地与军方直接合作。这让他们可以更快速地设计和实地测试新的解决方案。这样他们可以在最短的时间内将一个原型推向前线。
Here in Russia, it's the opposite. Everything moves forward, not because the system helps, but in spite of it. It's all uphill. In the West, the defense sector has always worked closely with private companies, but in the Soviet Union, private enterprise didn't exist. And Russia inherited a lot of that legacy. Our defense sector is still this closed-off, self-contained world. For a private company to break into it, you need to go through these insane contracts. The kind of legal and bureaucratic madness no sane person would willingly sign up for. No, but a lot of ecstasy, go back. Yeah, but in the drone world, it's different. Russia's defense ministry is now buying a lot of UAVs from private firms. But Sichevpil, what am I meant? Yeah, we're finally hitting a turning point. Bit by bit, private developers are being pulled into the defense orbit.
在俄罗斯，情况正相反。所有事情都在向前推进，这不是因为体制的帮助，而是尽管体制如此，仍旧推进。 这就像在往上爬坡。 在西方，国防领域一直与私营公司密切合作，而在苏联，私营企业并不存在。俄罗斯继承了很多这样的遗产。我们的国防领域仍然是一个封闭的、独立的世界。私营公司要想进入这个领域，需要经过极其复杂的合同。这种法律和官僚的疯狂让任何理智的人都不愿意去做。但在无人机领域，情况有所不同。俄罗斯国防部现在正从私营企业购买大量的无人机。是的，我们终于到了一个转折点。私营开发商逐渐被纳入国防领域。
But when the war started, it was total chaos. It was a mess. You've said that Russian, Ukraine are at the forefront of UAV development. But at the same time, both countries import a huge number of components from China. And I saw on your channel that the Chinese recently unveiled a heavy drone, kind of their own version of the Babayiga. So clearly they're making progress, too, right? Compritui Shedagreb, gore, my fsichev. Yes, components. That's true. Basically, we're all dipping into the same bucket of electronic parts. But the real secret isn't in the components. It's in how you put them together. It's like the Paris Dakar rally. Russia's Kamesh trucks keep winning it. But those trucks are built using Mercedes parts. Yet somehow Mercedes doesn't win. Kamesh does. This is the same story.
但战争爆发时，一片混乱，完全是个烂摊子。你提到俄罗斯和乌克兰在无人机技术研发方面处于前沿。然而，这两个国家同时又从中国进口了大量部件。我在你的频道上看到，中国最近推出了一款重型无人机，有点像他们版本的“Babayiga”。显然，他们也在取得进展，对吧？是的，部件方面都一样。我们基本上都在使用相同的电子元件。但真正的秘密不在于这些部件，而在于如何将它们组合在一起。这就像巴黎-达喀尔拉力赛，俄罗斯的Kamesh卡车不断获胜，但这些卡车是用奔驰的零件制造的，而奔驰却没能取胜，Kamesh赢了。这和这个故事很类似。
We all have access to the same components. And then each of us, depending on our understanding and experience, builds something from them. Now here's where China runs into trouble. They tend to make weapons that feel more like toys. The issue is they just don't have real combat experience. So they don't fully understand what military equipment actually needs to be. Real military hardware has to survive being tossed out the back of a truck into the mud, sitting in the rain for a week, getting yanked out, covered in grime. And it still has to power on and work perfectly. Chinese gear just doesn't hold up like that. Unfortunately, they haven't grasped that reality yet. It's a major weakness. That said, technologically, I think China has nearly caught up with the West.
我们都可以使用相同的组件，然后根据各自的理解和经验，去构建不同的东西。但这就是中国遇到麻烦的地方。他们制造的武器更像玩具。问题在于，他们缺乏实战经验，没有真正理解军事装备的必要要求。真正的军事设备必须经得起从卡车后面扔到泥里、一周的淋雨，然后再被拖出来时仍然沾满泥污的情况中正常启动并完美运作。而中国的装备往往无法达到这样的标准。不幸的是，他们还没有认清这个现实，这成为一个主要的弱点。不过，从技术上讲，我认为中国已经几乎赶上了西方。
Yes, if they're not fully equal, they're only half a step behind. But because they lack wartime experience, their military designs are still lacking where it matters. And China is supplying components to both Ukraine and Russia. Ukraine's a fat crit. Well, for Ukraine, they have access to the entire Western electronics market. Honestly, I've barely come across any Chinese chips in their drones. As for us, we had no choice. We had to fully switch over to a Chinese component base. And to be honest, we haven't regretted it. The quality of Chinese chips isn't that far off from American ones. Slightly worse, maybe, but nothing critical. And the price, it's 20 to 100 times cheaper.
是的，虽然他们还没有完全达到同等水平，但也只落后半步。不过，由于缺乏战时经验，他们的军事设计在关键方面仍显不足。而且，中国同时向乌克兰和俄罗斯提供零部件。乌克兰显然处于有利地位，因为他们可以进入整个西方电子市场。坦率地说，我在他们的无人机中几乎没见过中国芯片。至于我们，我们别无选择，不得不完全转向使用中国零部件。说实话，我们并不后悔。中国芯片的质量与美国芯片相差不远，或许稍差一些，但并没有什么致命的缺陷。而且价格便宜，便宜了20到100倍。
Plus, they're always available. EBITZ sanctions don't apply to domestically produce Chinese microchips so we can legally buy thousands of microcontrollers directly. No need to go through gray market imports or complicated third-country routes. And that's interesting because if you read the Western press, they often portray China's Russia's main military ally like they're supplying everything needed for the front. Well, there's China's official stance, and then there's their unofficial stance. Officially, China says it follows all the sanctions and blocks military-related exports. And in some areas, that's true. For example, we can't make payments to Chinese sellers using Russian bank cards anymore. A lot of products can be directly imported.
此外，它们随时可以使用。EBITZ制裁并不适用于中国国产的微芯片，因此我们可以合法地直接购买数以千计的微控制器，而无需通过灰色市场进口或复杂的第三国路线。这一点很有趣，因为如果你看西方媒体，他们经常把中国描绘成俄罗斯的主要军事盟友，好像中国在提供前线所需的一切物资一样。当然，中国有其官方立场，也有非官方立场。官方而言，中国表示遵守所有制裁并阻止与军事相关的出口。而在某些领域，这是真的。例如，我们现在不能再使用俄罗斯的银行卡向中国卖家付款，但许多产品仍可以直接进口。
There are even decrees that ban the export of motors over 700 watt, which are exactly the kinds used in heavy drones. But then there's the other side of the coin. We share a long land border with China, and there are countless private companies operating in that space. These companies handle transactions, organize shipments, and move parts across the border. And honestly, when you consider how tightly everything in China is monitored and regulated, it's hard to believe that the government doesn't know what's going on. In fact, it feels more like they're turning a blind eye or maybe even quietly approving. Because if the Chinese authorities really wanted to stop this kind of trade, they absolutely could, instantly, and no one would be able to do anything about it. And China should do.
有些法令甚至禁止出口功率超过700瓦的发动机，这正是重型无人机使用的类型。但事情也有另一面。我们与中国有很长的陆地边界，在那里经营着无数的私营公司。这些公司处理交易、组织运输，并将部件跨境运送。老实说，考虑到中国对一切的严格监控和监管，很难相信政府不知道这些事情。事实上，这更像是他们在睁一只眼闭一只眼，甚至可能是默许。因为如果中国当局真的想停止这种贸易，他们完全有能力立刻做到，而且没有人能阻止。而且中国也应该这样做。
All right, guys. Before we continue our conversation with Sergei, I want to share something with you real quick. The Russia-Krank Khan, the Russia-Krank conflict hasn't just reshaped modern warfare. It's also had a major impact on global markets, and one asset in particular has been quietly gaining strategic value. Gold. Take a look at this graph. It shows how much gold the world's central banks have been buying. Since 2022, when the war in Ukraine began, central banks have gone on a buying spree, pushing gold prices to all-time highs. In fact, gold has risen over 1,000% since 2001, when it traded at just $255 an ounce. Now, some Wall Street banks believe that it could hit $4,000 per ounce by 2026.
好的，各位。在我们继续与Sergei的谈话之前，我想先快速分享一件事情。俄罗斯与乌克兰的冲突不仅重新定义了现代战争，也对全球市场产生了重大影响。其中有一种资产正在悄然增加其战略价值，那就是黄金。大家看看这个图表。它显示了世界各地的中央银行购买黄金的数量。自2022年乌克兰战争开始以来，中央银行掀起了一股购金热潮，推高了黄金价格，达到历史新高。实际上，自2001年黄金价格为每盎司255美元以来，金价已经上涨了超过1000%。现在，一些华尔街的银行认为，到2026年，金价可能会达到每盎司4000美元。
But here's the twist. Even though gold prices are sorry, gold mining companies haven't kept up. This graph shows an index of junior gold miners, and it's actually down 63% since 2011, while gold itself is up 75% over the same period. The smith match points to a potential supply crunch. Less gold being produced, even as demand keeps rising. Which brings us to a day sponsor, Axcap Ventures, an investment firm focused on mining companies. Their flagship project is called Converse, and it's located in the Vatis Battle Mountain trend, a region that produces 75% of all gold in the US. So yeah, it's a prime location. According to recent resource estimate, Axcap holds around 5.5 million ounces of gold in the ground, plus another 400,000 ounces in the inferred category.
但这里有个转折。尽管黄金价格上涨，黄金开采公司却没有跟上。这张图显示了初级金矿开采公司的指数，自2011年以来，这个指数实际上下降了63%，而同期黄金本身上涨了75%。这种不一致表明可能会出现供应短缺。黄金产量减少，但需求却在不断上升。这就引出了我们今天的赞助商——Axcap Ventures，这是一家专注于矿业公司的投资公司。其旗舰项目名为Converse，位于Vatis Battle Mountain趋势区，这是美国生产75%黄金的主要区域之一。所以，位置极佳。根据最近的资源评估，Axcap公司持有大约550万盎司的地下黄金，以及另外40万盎司的推测资源。
Now, here's where it gets interesting. The company's entire stock market value translates to about $5 to $6 per ounce of gold in the ground. To put that in context, a similar company's traded $40 to $60 per ounce. Just think about it. That's an eight times difference. And if the market adjusts, or re-rates Axcap to match its peers, there could be a significant upside. And management clearly thinks something is coming. In just one week, CoFADROR Mario Vettro bought over 240,000 shares. Another CoFADROR, Tyron Brighton-Bock, also bought in. This is called Insider Buying, and it's often seen as a strong signal that management is confident that the company is about a ton of corner.
现在，事情变得有趣了。该公司的整个股市价值相当于地面上每盎司黄金约为5到6美元。而进行比较，同类公司的交易价格为每盎司40到60美元。想想看，这之间有八倍的差距。如果市场调整或重新评估Axcap，使其与同行相匹配，可能会有显著的上涨空间。而且管理层显然觉得有事情要发生。仅仅一周内，联合创始人Mario Vettro购买了超过24万股股份。另一位联合创始人Tyron Brighton-Bock也进行了购买。这被称为内部人士买入，通常被视为管理层对公司即将转机充满信心的强烈信号。
In total, they've spent $1.2 million on Axcap shares in the first quarter of 2025. Axcap also has about $10 million in cash, which means they're in a solid position to keep drilling and developing their projects. Do your homework, dig into the numbers, and start researching Axcap Ventures. Take your GARLF. I think it's a pretty compelling setup. Now, let's get back to the interview. We're recording this interview in a moment when peace negotiations are on a rate. It's still unclear how that will end. But even if hypothetically, the hot phase of the war in Ukraine wraps up this year, would you agree that no one is going to stop working on drones?
在2025年第一季度，他们共花费了120万美元购买Axcap的股份。Axcap还有大约1000万美元的现金，这意味着他们在继续钻探和开发项目方面处于稳固的财务状况。请做好功课，研究Axcap Ventures的财务数据，开始调研这个公司。我认为这是一个非常吸引人的局势。现在，让我们回到采访。当我们录制这段采访时，和平谈判正在进行中，结果尚不明确。但即使假设今年乌克兰战争的激烈阶段结束了，你是否同意无人机会继续被开发和使用？
It just feels like this is the weapon of the future. In any future, conflict drones will play a central role. There are stats showing that early-mover-most injuries and deaths were caused by artillery and trapnel. Now drones that account for about 70% of casualties on both sides. Yes, they're a rasmata with drone. If you look at drones as the evolution of precision-guided weapons, then yeah, it all makes perfect sense. Ever since the end of World War II, the trend has been clear. Shift away from unguided mass firepower and move toward precision. Just blasting away with artillery isn't efficient anymore. You want the projectile to be smart.
这感觉就像是未来的武器。在任何未来的冲突中，无人机都会起到核心作用。有数据显示，早期的伤亡大多数是由炮火和弹片造成的。现在，无人机导致了双方约70%的伤亡。是的，它们可以说是无人机领域的"拉斯玛塔"（可能是指无人机的先锋或标志性存在）。如果你把无人机看作精确制导武器的进化，那么这一切就显得完全合理了。自第二次世界大战结束以来，趋势已经很明显：从使用无导向的大规模火力转向精确打击。仅靠炮火轰击已不再高效，人们希望弹药具有智能化。
The Americans had the copperhead shell back in the day. We developed Krasnopol. Both are guided artillery rounds. Anti-tank guided missiles, air-to-surface weapons. Over time, they've all become more autonomous. Even aerial dogfights today are almost fully automated. Pilots don't even see each other and they're firing based on blips on a radar screen. Yes, that's right. So if you place drones in that context, there are natural next steps in this long technological trajectory. The only thing that caught everyone off guard was just how effective such a simple, relatively low-cost piece of equipment could be. But let's be honest, the drones we're seeing now in this conflict are basically toys. Most of them run on Chinese flight controllers, motor drivers, and toy-grade motors. That's what's being deployed to the battlefield. Once the war ends, the first thing that will happen is a major overhaul.
美国人过去曾使用铜头蛇炮弹，而我们开发了“克拉斯诺波尔”弹药。两者都是制导炮弹。还有反坦克制导导弹和空对地武器。随着时间的推移，它们变得越来越自主化。即使是在今天的空战中，几乎也是全自动的。飞行员甚至看不到对方，只是根据雷达屏幕上的光点进行攻击。是的，没错。所以在这样的背景下使用无人机，是这个长期技术发展轨迹的自然下一步。而唯一让所有人感到意外的，是这样一件简单且相对廉价的装备竟然如此有效。但坦率地说，我们在这场冲突中看到的无人机基本上就像是玩具。它们大多数使用的是中国的飞行控制器、电机驱动器和玩具级电机。这就是被部署到战场上的装备。一旦战争结束，首先发生的事情就是进行大规模的升级和改进。
These drones will be redesigned as actual military-grade products. Like I said earlier, real equipment, stuff you can toss out the back of a truck into the mud, gear that can lie in the rain for a week, and still boot up and work without fail. No army is going to formally adopt something that feels like it came from a toy store. Right now, we use these makeshift drones because we have to. We need to flood the front with as many strike tools as possible and we're willing to overlook how fragile they are. But that won't last. So yes, drone development absolutely won't stop. But drones will evolve. We'll see major progress in autonomous target recognition and guidance. Because right now, electronic warfare is a serious threat. Whether it's Russian or American systems, jamming is a real problem. If a drone has to be manually piloted all the way to the point of impact, there's a high chance it'll get jammed before it hits. And you also need a skilled pilot, someone with real training.
这些无人机将被重新设计为真正的军用级产品。就像我之前说的，是实实在在的设备，可以随意从卡车后面扔到泥地里，或者在雨中放置一周，仍然能无故障启动并正常工作。没有哪个军队会正式采用感觉像是从玩具店买来的东西。目前，我们被迫使用这些简易无人机，因为我们需要在前线部署尽可能多的打击工具，即使它们很脆弱，我们也愿意忽略。但这种情况不会持续下去。因此，无人机的发展绝不会停止，而是会不断演变。我们将看到自动目标识别和引导方面的重大进展。当前，电子战是一个严峻的威胁，无论是俄罗斯还是美国的系统，干扰都是个真正的问题。如果一架无人机在飞到目标前都得靠人工操控，它很有可能在击中目标前就被干扰。此外，操作无人机还需要技术娴熟、受过专业训练的飞行员。
But if the drone is automated, then you can hand the controller to. Well, let's say monkey, someone with zero flight skills, and they'll just press a button. That's much easier. The Americans are heavily leaning into this approach now. Just look at their defense expos. All the focus is on so-called AI modules. There's no real AI in them, of course. It's mostly marketing. But they do have basic visual recognition systems already. Yeah, but it's not that simple. So why don't we have real, full-blown AI and drones yet? I mean, if a drone could decide where to strike and identify its own targets, wouldn't that make electronic warfare totally useless? Well, yes, let's say, if we set aside the ethical side of things, the moral boundaries, the international agreements about not using AI to autonomously kill people, and just look at the tech, we still run into limitations.
如果无人机是自动化的，那么你可以把控制器交给，比如说一只猴子，或者是一个完全没有飞行技能的人，他们只需要按一个按钮。这要简单得多。美国现在非常倾向于这种方法，看看他们的国防展览，重点都放在所谓的AI模块上。当然，其中并没有真正的人工智能，更多的是营销噱头。但他们确实已经拥有基本的视觉识别系统。不过，事情并没有那么简单。那么为什么我们还没有真正意义上的AI和无人机呢？我的意思是，如果无人机能够自主决定攻击目标，这难道不会让电子战变得毫无用处吗？是的，如果我们撇开道德方面的问题、关于不使用AI自动杀人的国际协议，仅从技术角度来看，仍然会遇到限制。
Think about it. You're chatting with Chad GPT, and that system runs on a massive server complex, sitting in a huge data center with enormous computing power. Now, imagine trying to fit that level of processing power into a tiny drone, and then send that drone on a one-way mission. A drone is basically a disposable weapon, and cramming that much intelligence into a throwaway piece of gear is extremely difficult. That said, the latest chips coming out, like the new ones from Nvidia, they're changing the game. We're getting close to the point where it'll be cheap and viable to build drones that can truly think for themselves. From what I understand, drones aren't just being used as flying bombs anymore. Both sides are now using them for remote mind-laying, and there is something new to what people are calling sleeper drones or ambush drones.
想象一下，你正在和Chad GPT聊天，这个系统依靠一个庞大的服务器群，在一个拥有巨大计算能力的数据中心中运行。现在，设想一下要把这样强大的处理能力装入一个小型无人机内，并将其派去执行一次单程任务。无人机基本上就是一种一次性武器，要把这么高的智能融入一个用完即弃的设备中是非常困难的。不过，值得一提的是，像Nvidia这样的公司推出的最新芯片正在改变这种状况。我们离能够廉价且可行地制造出真正能够自主思考的无人机已经不远了。据我所知，现在无人机不再仅仅用作飞行炸弹。双方现在都在将无人机用于远程布雷，而人们所称的“沉默无人机”或“伏击无人机”也带来了一些新的东西。
The drone in the Russian desert now has a wire-wrapped and a zoom-in area located in the west, and it can be seen everywhere on the road, and the technology is high. Basically, the drone flies to a location like the roadside, and just waits, and when an enemy vehicle, like a tank or APC drives by, the drone wakes up and strikes. Can you talk a bit more about that? Absolutely. Remote mind-laying is an incredibly effective tactic, and it's actually been in use for about a year and a half now. It's just become more widespread lately, because we've got a lot more drones in circulation. Early in the war-fielding, 1,000 drones was a big deal. Now, a single assembly line can crank out 40,000 drones per week. What makes remote mind-laying so powerful is that it lets you mine roads the enemy thinks are safe.
在俄罗斯沙漠中的无人机现在已经在西部地区被布置好，并且在路上随处可见，而且技术非常先进。基本上，无人机会飞到路边等候，当敌方车辆，如坦克或步兵战车经过时，无人机会启动并发起攻击。你能详细谈谈这个技术吗？当然可以。远程布雷是一种非常有效的战术，实际上已经被使用大约一年半了。最近这种策略变得更加普遍，因为我们有更多的无人机投入使用。战争初期，部署1,000架无人机已经是件大事。现在，一条生产线每周就可以生产40,000架无人机。远程布雷如此强大的原因在于，它可以让你在敌人认为安全的道路上布雷。
A supply truck might roll through, unload, and head back along the same path, but in that short window, a drone could have dropped a new mine right in the tire tracks, so the truck comes back driving on what it thinks is a cleared path, and boom! That's why this tactic is so effective. And how do you defend against something like that? Honestly, you don't. There's not much you can do, really. It's gotten to the point where people are dropping kaltrops. Yeah, kaltrops. The same spike things used against horses back in the Roman Empire. Now, they're welding them from rebar. They toss them all over the roads, and they shred tires. And keep in mind that tires for military trucks are very expensive. The kaltrops themselves cost next to nothing, but one handful can blow out the tires on a military truck just like that. Avvetej Zalit.
一辆补给卡车可能会经过，卸货，然后沿同一路线返回。但在这短暂的时间内，无人机可能已经在车辙上放置了新的地雷，所以当卡车沿着以为已经清除的路径返回时，就会发生爆炸！这就是这种战术为什么如此有效。而且你要怎么防范这样的情况呢？说实话，很难防范。你几乎没有太多应对的方法。如今，人们甚至开始使用蒺藜。对，就是在古罗马时期用来对付马匹的尖刺。他们用钢筋焊接这些蒺藜，然后撒在路上，能够刺破轮胎。要知道，军用卡车的轮胎非常贵。而蒺藜几乎没有成本，但一小把就可以轻易把一辆军用卡车的轮胎报废。Avvetej Zalit。
So these sleeper drones, is there a still-an-operator monitoring the feed, watching for enemy movement, and manually trigger in the strike? It was actually the Ukrainians who first started using this tactics, probably about a year and a half ago. And the way they did it was honestly pretty smart. Sometimes they'd have a drone pretend to crash, just go down somewhere near our positions, and lie there like it was damaged or out of battery. And of course, that draws attention. I mean, if you spot a seemingly intact FPV drone on the ground, that's a real fine. It's a trophy. Command might even give you a commendation for recovering it, plus it's a source of spare parts. In some cases, you can even strip it down, reprogram it, and launch it right back at the enemy. So it's tempting.
这些潜伏无人机是否仍然有操作者在监控画面，观察敌人的动向，并手动触发打击？其实，是乌克兰人最早开始使用这种战术，大概是一年半前。 他们采用的方法真的很聪明。有时候，他们会让无人机假装坠毁，就在我们阵地附近降落，像是损坏了或者没电了一样躺在那里。当然，这会吸引注意力。我是说，如果你发现一架看上去完好的第一人称视角无人机在地上，那可真是一笔意外之财。 这可是战利品。指挥部甚至可能会因为你找回了它而给你表扬，而且它还是零件的来源。在某些情况下，你甚至可以拆开重装，重新编程后直接对准敌人发起攻击。因此，这很有诱惑力。
So the soldiers wait an hour, maybe two, nothing happens. And someone says, all right, let's go grab it. They approach and boom, remote detonation. Same with drones placed on rooftops or hilltops overlooking roads. The enemy knows roughly when convoys are due to pass, so they land the drone wait. Sometimes for an hour, sometimes two, two, two, two, depends on the battery. And when the vehicles come, the drone just takes off, flies a short distance, and hits its target. That whole tactic really took off with the rise of fiber optic drones. What makes them different from standard drones is how little power they consume when idle. A regular drone, even when it's just sitting on the ground, still burns through five to ten watts because of its video transmitter.
士兵们等待了一个小时，可能两个小时，但什么都没有发生。有个人说：「好吧，我们去把它拿来吧。」他们靠近，然后——轰，远程引爆。同样的情况也发生在放置在屋顶或山顶俯瞰道路的无人机上。敌人大致知道车队通过的时间，所以他们让无人机降落在那里等待。有时等一个小时，有时两个小时，这取决于电池的续航时间。当车辆到来时，无人机便起飞，飞行一小段距离，然后击中目标。这个战术随着光纤无人机的兴起而真正流行起来。与普通无人机不同的是，光纤无人机在静止时几乎不消耗电力。普通无人机即使只是停在地面上，由于其视频传输器，仍然会消耗大约五到十瓦的电力。
But with fiber optic drones, the video signal travels through the cable, so the energy uses minimal. And when these drones first started showing up in the Kursk region, it was an absolute nightmare for the Ukrainians. We're talking about drones that just sit there, hidden, silent, almost invisible, and then they spring into action at the perfect moment. A Ukrainian military vehicle would drive up, thinking the road is clear. And then the drone launches from just ten or fifteen meters away. The drivers wouldn't even have time to react. The drone would zip forward and hit the engine. And that's it. The vehicle disabled, that's it. The car is invisible.
使用光纤无人机时，视频信号通过电缆传输，因此能量消耗极低。当这些无人机首次在库尔斯克地区出现时，对乌克兰人来说简直是一场噩梦。我们说的是那些无人机，它们通常隐藏在那里，安静无声，几乎难以察觉，然后在最佳时刻突然行动。一辆乌克兰军用车辆开过来，以为路上很安全。然后，无人机就在只有十或十五米远的地方发射。驾驶员甚至没有时间反应。无人机迅速向前飞行并击中发动机。就这样，车辆被瘫痪，事情就结束了。车辆就这样消失在了视线中。
Since you mentioned Kursk, Ukraine recently suffered a pretty serious defeat in that region, and drones using fiber optic guidance played a big role there. It was actually the first time we saw them use that bad scale. But time's passed since then, and now it looks like the Ukrainians have fiber optic drones too. So are these drones still relevant? There is still no real countermeasure against them? Because I saw something on Telegram claiming that Ukrainians have figured out how to shoot a laser down the fiber optic line and even track the operator through it. Yet not exactly. Laser is still full-shot. There nowhere near reliable yet.
既然你提到了库尔斯克，乌克兰最近在那个地区遭遇了一次相当严重的失败，光纤制导的无人机在其中发挥了重要作用。这实际上是我们第一次看到它们在如此大规模下的使用。不过，从那时起已经过了一段时间，现在看起来乌克兰人也拥有了光纤无人机。那么这些无人机现在还有意义吗？有没有真正的对策可以对抗它们？因为我在Telegram上看到有人声称乌克兰人已经找到了沿着光纤线路发射激光并通过它追踪操作员的方法，但情况并非完全如此。激光仍然是全力以赴的尝试，还远未达到可靠的程度。
Meanwhile, fiber optic cable has its own quirks. For example, it catches the sunlight and reflects like a spiderweb. So in theory, if you're flying a Mavic drone and looking down during sunrise or sunset, you might actually see those reflections and get a rough idea of where the cable is running. But Russian operators have already adapted to that. All you need is a regular cordless drill, hit the trigger and buzz. It winds up the cable. Yeah, it eventually snaps, sure. But by that point, you've usually pulled in 50-100 meters of cable, which is enough to hide your actual position. Oop, the walkna is 2 minutes. It's a Tostolo Staya.
与此同时，光纤电缆也有其独特之处。例如，它会反射阳光，看起来像蜘蛛网。因此，理论上来说，如果你在日出或日落时驾驶Mavic无人机从空中俯视，你可能会看到这些反射，从而大致判断出电缆的走向。但俄罗斯的操作人员已经找到了应对方法。你只需要一个普通的无线电钻，按下扳机，就能把电缆卷起来。确实，最后电缆会断掉。但通常到了那时，你已经收起了50到100米的电缆，这足以隐藏你的真正位置。哦，Walkna已经2分钟了。这是一个Tostolo Staya。
Fiber optic drones do have two main downsides. First, the cable stays on the ground, which means the enemy could follow it back to your position. It also clatters up the area and physically gets in the way. Imagine you're charging in on a motorcycle and run straight into a bundle of fiber optic wire. Not fun. And a lot of our assault teams are using bikes now because at this stage speed is more important than armor. The second issue is payload. The drone has to carry the spool of fiber. And if you're using a 10-kilometer reel, that's a lot of weight. After all that, you've only got maybe 500 grams left for explosives. That's not much. So, no. Fiber optic drones aren't some kind of wonder weapon. But in certain conditions, they're incredibly useful, especially in areas where the enemy's jamming systems are strong.
光纤无人机确实有两个主要的缺点。首先，光纤线缆是放在地面的，这意味着敌人可能会顺着线找到你的位置。此外，线缆也会扰乱周围环境并带来物理障碍。试想一下，如果你骑着摩托车冲锋，结果直接撞上了一捆光纤线，那会非常麻烦。而且，由于目前速度比装甲更重要，许多突击小队都在使用摩托车。第二个问题是载重。无人机需要携带光纤线轴。假如你使用的是10公里长的线轴，那就非常重。那么，现在你可能只剩下大约500克的空间来装炸药。这并不多。所以说，光纤无人机并不是一种神奇的武器。但在特定条件下，它们非常有用，尤其是在敌方电子干扰很强的地区。
Take the Ukrainian push into the Kursk region, for example. You know how they gained the upper hand. They moved in with a massive amount of electronic warfare gear jamming everything across the spectrum. There's a lot of video showing how Russian fiber optic drones would first take out the escort vehicle. Usually a pickup's carrying a jamming system. So first, the fiber drone hits that truck, knocks out their jamming capability. And then the regular FPV drones move in and finish off the rest of the column. Russian operators adapted to this tactic really fast. Like I said before, the innovation cycle on the battlefield is insanely short right now. We're talking two months, sometimes less. Whatever breakthrough you come up with today might only work once. So I'll say it again, fiber optic drones are not some wonder weapon. They're not going to win the war on their own.
以乌克兰对库尔斯克地区的推进为例。你知道他们是如何取得优势的。他们带着大量电子战设备进驻，干扰了整个频谱的一切。有很多视频显示，俄罗斯的光纤无人机首先摧毁了护卫车辆。通常是一辆皮卡车载着干扰系统。所以，首先，光纤无人机攻击了那辆卡车，使其失去干扰能力。接着，普通的FPV无人机进入，消灭剩余车队。俄罗斯的操作员对此战术适应得非常快。正如我之前所说的，战场上的创新周期现在极其短暂。我们说的是两个月，有时还不到。你今天想出的突破可能只奏效一次。所以我再说一次，光纤无人机不是某种神奇武器。它们不会靠自身赢得战争。
They're just one tool in the toolbox. They've got strengths and they've got limitations. The key is using them smartly, mainly as a way to neutralize enemy jamming. Once that's done, once you've cleared the airwaves, that's when your regular FPV drones come in and finish the job. There was that viral video. A Russian drone operator sitting in Moscow controlling the UAV somewhere over Donbass. So it looks like Russian now has true long range remote piloting capabilities. Can you explain how that works? Is it actually revolutionary? This tech isn't exactly revolutionary. The Ukrainian aircraft is a real pro. Is it actually revolutionary? This tech isn't exactly revolutionary.
它们只是工具箱中的一种工具。它们有优点也有局限性。关键在于聪明地使用它们，主要用来中和敌方的干扰。一旦完成这个步骤，空气干扰被清除后，你就可以派出普通的第一人称视角（FPV）无人机来完成任务。有一个很火的视频：一名俄罗斯无人机操作员坐在莫斯科，操作着在顿巴斯上空的无人机。所以看起来俄罗斯现在拥有真正的长距离远程操控能力。你能解释一下这个技术如何运作吗？这是不是革命性的？其实这项技术并不算革命性。乌克兰的航空器才真的是高手。这个技术并不算革命性。
The Ukrainians have been using radio relays and internet bridges for a long time already, mostly because they've had access to Starlink and Starlink honestly is the Holy Grail. If you ask me what Western technology has worked flawlessly in this war, it's Starlink. That system has completely transformed how modern warfare looks on the ground. Take away Starlink and Ukraine's entire fleet of naval drones disappears overnight. I'm not exaggerating. Ukrainian naval drone is basically just a Starlink terminal with a motor and some explosive strap to a small boat. That's it. Remove the Starlink and the whole thing stops functioning. Why doesn't Russia have naval drones? Well, we do have the boats, but we don't have Starlink. That's our problem. It all comes down to communications. What was the rest of the question?
乌克兰人已经使用无线电中继和互联网桥接很长时间了，主要是因为他们能够使用Starlink。坦白说，Starlink就像是个“圣杯”。如果你问我在这场战争中哪个西方科技表现得最好，那就是Starlink。这个系统完全改变了现代战争在地面的样貌。没有Starlink，乌克兰的整个海军无人机舰队就会在一夜之间消失。我没有夸张。乌克兰的海军无人机基本上就是一个装有电机和一些爆炸装置的小船，上面搭载了一个Starlink终端。撤掉Starlink，这些东西就无法运作。俄罗斯为什么没有海军无人机？我们确实有船，但没有Starlink。这就是我们的问题。归根结底，这一切都与通讯有关。问题的其余部分是什么来着？
Now, going back to your question, what we're doing is essentially an internet bridge. We create a high-speed internet connection at a certain forward position. And then from there, a radio link is established between that point and the drone. The key advantage, you don't need to send your drone operator to the front line. And that's a big deal because drone operators, like pilots, are valuable. A skilled operator doesn't appear overnight. Six months, even years, to train one properly. Most drone operators aren't exactly built for combat. They're usually gamers. And now you're asking them to carry body armor, helmet gear, and hike all of that up to the front lines. So we had this idea. What if we take two strong guys, guys who don't know how to fly a drone at all, but give them the gear, all they have to do is run out to the launch point, set up the equipment.
好的，回到您的问题，我们正在做的其实是一个互联网桥梁。我们在某个前沿位置创建一个高速互联网连接，然后从那里建立一个与无人机之间的无线电连接。关键的优势在于，您不需要让无人机操作员前往前线。这非常重要，因为无人机操作员就像飞行员一样，十分珍贵。要真正训练好一个操作员，可能需要六个月甚至更长时间。大多数无人机操作员其实并不是为战斗而生的，他们通常是游戏玩家。现在让他们穿上防弹衣、头盔，还要扛着装备去前线，确实不容易。所以我们有了这个想法：如果我们派两个身体强壮、完全不会操控无人机的人，给他们提供所需装备，他们只需要跑到发射点，架设好设备就行了。
And we made it super simple. Every cable and port is labeled. They club the drone down on two bricks, press a button, and radio in, ready for launch. And then a trained operator, out sitting in Moscow, who, key, if wherever, can take over and fly the mission remotely. That way one operator can work non-stop, covering a huge section of the front line, without ever putting themselves in danger. The Ukrainians were the first to pull this off using Starlink. We've since caught up using our own systems in tech. That said, it's not perfect. There's a noticeable delay in both control response and video feed, even with Starlink, which is considered high speed. I don't know what the latency is like on Russia's orbit system right now, but even with Starlink. This tactic never really went mainstream.
翻译：我们把这一切变得非常简单。每根电缆和每个接口都有标识。他们把无人机放在两块砖上，按下一个按钮，然后通过无线电通知准备发射。这时，一名经过训练的操作员可以在莫斯科或者其他地方远程接管无人机，完成任务。这样一来，操作员就可以不停地工作，覆盖大片前线区域，而自己不会面临危险。乌克兰人是第一个利用星链技术实现这一点的国家。此后，我们通过自己的技术系统赶上了这一点。然而，这并不完美。即使是被认为是高速的星链，也存在明显的控制响应和视频传输延迟。我不知道俄罗斯的轨道系统目前的延迟情况，但即便是星链也是如此。这种战术从未真正成为主流。
I think I'm not going to die. Let's talk about some of the most iconic drones of this war, you know, the names that both Russians and Ukrainians are familiar with. We've already touched on fiber optic drones, but why are the most infamous Ukrainian drones, at least here, Russia? It's a heavy agricultural drone repurposed to drop bombs and laymines remotely. Why has this platform stayed so relevant for so long? Is it because no one's feared out how to counter it? Or are there countermeasures now? And why doesn't Russia have a heavy drone like this of its own?
我想我不会死。让我们来讨论一下这场战争中最具标志性的无人机，俄国人和乌克兰人都知道它们的名字。我们已经提到过光纤无人机，但为什么这里最臭名昭著的乌克兰无人机是指那些？它是一种重型农用无人机，被改装用于远程投放炸弹和布雷。为什么这个平台一直这么重要呢？是因为没人知道如何对抗它吗？或者现在已经有了反制措施？而俄罗斯为什么没有这样的重型无人机呢？
For quite a while, the Russian military dismissed drones like Ukraine's vampire as something used by Ragtag militias, not a real battlefield tool. The mindset was, come on, we've got proper aircraft, we've got guided bombs. Why bother with these little DIY drones when we can just send in ASU34, drop a 500 kilogram bomb, and wipe everything out in one strike that kind of thinking was pretty common, but as usual, reality hit hard. And it turned out we were wrong.
有相当一段时间，俄罗斯军方对像乌克兰的“吸血鬼”这样的无人机不屑一顾，认为这是乌合之众使用的东西，不是真正的战场工具。他们的想法是：我们有正规的飞机，有制导炸弹，为什么还要费心使用这些小型自制无人机呢？我们可以直接派出ASU34飞机，投下500公斤的炸弹，一次性摧毁所有东西。这种思维方式相当普遍，但现实总是让人清醒——事实证明我们错了。
The vampire drones turned out to be incredibly effective, especially after the Ukrainians about a year ago, figured out how to modify them to drop anti-tank mines from them. And we're not talking about some small improvised charge. These are real anti-tank mines packed with 6-8 kilograms of TNT. That's a serious blast. Even if you're safely tucked into a trench or a dugout, you still feel the shockwave in your bones. If the mine hits an exposed position, or if anyone's caught out in the open, it's almost always fatal, and even those underground aren't necessarily safe.
吸血鬼无人机的效果出奇地好，特别是在大约一年前，乌克兰人想出了如何改装它们来投放反坦克地雷。这些可不是简单的自制炸药，而是真正的反坦克地雷，里面装有6到8公斤的TNT炸药，爆炸威力相当惊人。即使你躲在战壕或掩体里，也会感到震波传到身体。如果地雷命中一个暴露的位置，或者有人在外面行动，几乎都是致命的，即使是地下的人也未必安全。
Now imagine dropping not one, but three or four of these in quick succession. You can methodically wipe out an entire fortified area, bunker by bunker. At first, soldiers were hesitant to shoot these drones down, but eventually people realized most of them aren't even manually piloted. They just fly to pre-programmed coordinates, drop their payload, and leave. That's why some started calling them shuttles or buses. There are some versions connected via Starlink. Those are smarter. If they detect incoming fire, they can identify where it came from, fly over, and drop a mine on that position.
现在想象一下，不是投放一个，而是快速连续投放三个或四个这样的装置。你可以有条不紊地摧毁整个防御区，一个碉堡接一个碉堡。起初，士兵们对于击落这些无人机还是很犹豫，但最终人们意识到，它们中的大多数甚至不是由人手动操控的。它们只需要飞到预先设定好的坐标、投放载荷，然后离开。这就是为什么有些人开始把它们称为“穿梭机”或“巴士”。有一些版本是通过Starlink连接的，那些更智能。如果它们检测到来袭的火力，可以识别出火力的来源，然后飞过去，在那个位置投下一颗地雷。
But that's rare. Good news is, these vampire drones, that despite the damage they can do, are actually fairly easy to bring down, at least with the right setup. All you need is a machine gun with a thermal scope. Drones run hot. Their batteries, motors, all of it glows and infrared. It's like watching a flare move across a dark screen. You can go from cover, a soldier can track them through the thermal scope, and adjust aim by watching the tracer rounds. One good hit to the battery, and the drone drops. That's why you see them getting shot down fairly often now, and we've adapted.
但这很少见。好消息是，这些吸血鬼无人机尽管能造成不少破坏，其实还算容易击落，至少在装备得当的情况下是这样的。你只需要一把带热成像瞄准镜的机关枪即可。无人机运作时温度很高。它们的电池、马达，所有部件在红外线下都发光，就像在黑暗屏幕上移动的火焰信号弹。你可以从掩体里探出身来，士兵能通过热成像瞄准镜追踪它们，并通过观察曳光弹来调整射击角度。只要打中电池一下，无人机就会掉下来。这就是为什么现在你经常能看到它们被击落，而且我们也已经适应了这种情况。
And on our side, Russia's already ramping up a serious response. We've got two full-scale factories currently under construction. Each focused entirely on producing heavy-class drones, similar to the vampire, using Chinese-sourced components. Aside from that, there's a whole cottage industry, garage-based drone builders, all making heavy drones in their own way, however they can. But there's a catch with the vampire drones, one of their expensive. One of these drones costs around $12,500 for a basic model. Depending on the configuration, you're looking at anywhere from $10,000 to $30,000 a unit.
在我们这边，俄罗斯已经在大力加强反应。目前我们有两个大规模的工厂正在建设中，每个工厂都专注于生产类似“吸血鬼”那样的重型无人机，这些无人机使用的是中国提供的零部件。除此之外，还有一个完全由家庭作坊构成的小型产业，他们都在用不同的方式和能力制造重型无人机。但生产“吸血鬼”无人机有个问题，就是它们的成本很高。一个基础型号的无人机大约需要12,500美元，根据配置的不同，每架无人机的价格在10,000到30,000美元之间。
So obviously an average soldier can't afford that, not even if the whole platoon pulled their paychecks. And imagine if it gets shot down on its very first flight. That kind of equipment needs to be supplied centrally for free by the military itself, FPV drones. That's a different story. Some of those cost around $500. That's manageable. So why do soldiers end up buying drones out of their own pocket? We'll picture this. You're sitting out at a front-line outpost, and you haven't been issued any drones. Or maybe you were, but you're told exactly how and when to use them.
显然，一名普通士兵负担不起这种费用，即使整个排都拿出他们的工资也不够。而且想象一下，如果这种设备在第一次飞行时就被击落了。这样的装备需要由军队集中免费提供。FPV无人机则是另一种情况。这些无人机的一些型号大约花费500美元，这是可以承受的。那么，为什么士兵最终要自掏腰包购买无人机呢？想象一下，你坐在前线的一个哨所里，却没有被配发任何无人机。或者即便配发了，你也会被指示具体如何以及何时使用它们。
Meanwhile, you know your position could be attacked at any time. The enemy might try to push forward and you're left wondering, what do I fight back with? So guys scrape together money and buy a dozen cheap FPV drones at just in case. Those drones stay with the unit and become a last resort defense tool. If the enemy breaks through a launchers and assault, you've at least got something to strike back with. That's why you sometimes see service members buying drones with their own cash. Sure, it's a drop in the bucket compared to centralized procurement. But it's happening.
与此同时，你知道自己的阵地可能随时会遭到攻击。敌人可能试图向前推进，你会感到困惑，不知道该如何反击。于是，大家凑钱，买了十来个便宜的FPV无人机，以备不时之需。这些无人机留在部队，成为最后的防御工具。如果敌人突破防线发起进攻，你至少有一些手段可以反击。这就是为什么有时候你会看到士兵用自己的钱买无人机。虽然这与集中采购相比微不足道，但这样的事情确实在发生。
Now when it comes to heavy drones like the vampire, buying them privately is basically out of the question. What about the Gerundrons? Because they've been around for quite a while now. And at first they looked a lot like Shahez, an unlimited range, slow speed. Ukrainian troops were even shooting them down with machine guns. But despite that, they're still being launched regularly. There are a lot of them. And you posted something on your channel about how the sound has changed. Probably the engines have been swapped out. So does that mean Russia is upgrading them to keep them relevant?
现在，谈到像“吸血鬼”这样的重型无人机，个人购买基本上是不可能的。那么“Gerundrons”呢？因为它们已经出现很长时间了。起初，它们看起来很像“Shahez”，具有无限的航程，但速度缓慢。乌克兰军队甚至用机枪击落了它们。尽管如此，这些无人机仍然被定期发射，而且数量不少。你在你的频道上发布了一些关于它们声音变化的内容，可能是因为引擎被更换了。这是否意味着俄罗斯正在升级它们，以保持其技术的使用价值？
The Gerundrons have come a long way. The original Iranian Shahez model didn't even have stealth coating. But Russian Gerunds now do. And that's just one example of how far the platform has evolved. At this point, Gerund has moved well beyond its Iranian origins. So when Ukrainians keep calling them Shahez, they're wrong. These aren't Shahez anymore. It's been a long time since that label made sense.
Gerundrons经历了很长的发展历程。最初的伊朗Shahez型号甚至没有隐形涂层，但现在的俄罗斯Gerunds已经具备了这种功能。这只是平台进化程度的一个例子。目前，Gerund已经远远超越了它的伊朗起源。因此，当乌克兰人继续称它们为Shahez时，这是不正确的。它们不再是Shahez了，这个称呼早已不再适用。
And honestly, that's always been Russia's approach. We start with someone else's base model, but we improve it fast and then keep developing it independently. For example, we now have a jet-powered version of the Gerundron. Though the drone scene in those videos probably isn't that one. There's also a Gerund variant running on a Wankle engine. That's what creates that distinct high-frequency wine people have been hearing. But there's also a theory that what's being used is a new type of Gerund fitted with a built-in siren, kind of like the old German Jungkursplanes that had sound devices specifically designed to intimidate.
说实话，这一直是俄罗斯的做法。我们从别人的基础模型开始，但会很快进行改进，然后独立进行开发。比如，我们现在有一个喷气式动力版本的Gerundron。不过，视频中的无人机可能不是这种。此外，还有一种使用汪克尔发动机的Gerund型号，这就是人们听到的那种独特高频嗡嗡声的来源。不过，还有一种说法认为正在使用的是一种新型Gerund，这种Gerund配有内置的警报器，有点像旧时德国的Ju-87俯冲轰炸机，它们配备了专门设计用于恐吓的声音装置。
Like to mass with empsychologically? Yes, and honestly, that's the goal of any weapon or sea to intimidate and overwhelm the American city. The American said it best. War is about violence, restrained in war, is stupidity. And there's some truth to it. That said, it's important to point something out. The conflict with Ukraine is actually the first war in the past 100 years where military casualties have significantly outnumbered civilian ones. So when people say this is a war of extermination, that's just not true. Look at Vietnam. Civilian casualties were far higher than military ones. And here it's the opposite. There's no targeted campaign to wipe out Ukrainians. The data just doesn't support that narrative.
想要对他们进行心理打击？是的，坦白说，这正是任何武器或海洋力量的目标，即威吓和压倒美国城市。美国人说得好，战争就是暴力，在战争中克制是愚蠢的。这其中有些道理。不过，有一点需要指出的是，与乌克兰的冲突实际上是过去100年中首次军事伤亡人数远超平民伤亡人数的战争。所以，当人们说这是一场灭绝性的战争时，这就不准确了。看看越南战争，平民伤亡远远多于军事伤亡。而在这里情况正相反，并没有针对乌克兰人的公开灭绝行动。数据并不支持这种说法。
You could say to use a boxing metaphor that this war, at least from the Russian side, is being fought with gloves on. Ukrainians are definitely going all in, fighting with everything they've got. But we're still holding back in a lot of ways. In Russia, whether that's good or bad, a big shift has already happened. A huge number of people have mentally flipped the switch. They understand now that we're in a war. They live with that reality. Even if the war feels low intensity, even if it's happening far from home, no one here thinks it's somewhere else anymore. That illusion's gone. And that, weirdly enough, gives both Russians and Ukrainians an edge, compared to people in the West or Europe, where life still feels peaceful and normal.
可以说，用拳击的比喻，这场战争，至少从俄罗斯方面来看，是戴着手套进行的。而乌克兰人则完全投入，用尽了一切力量来战斗。但我们在很多方面仍然有所保留。在俄罗斯，无论这好坏，一种重大转变已经发生。大量的人已经在心理上意识到我们正在进行一场战争。他们接受了这个现实。即便战争看起来强度不高，即便它发生在远离家乡的地方，这里再没有人认为战争在别处进行。这样的幻想已经不复存在。而且，这种情况非常奇怪地让俄罗斯人和乌克兰人相较于那些生活仍感到和平和正常的西方或欧洲人更有优势。
Europeans don't feel this war, but in Russia, a lot of people are already prepared for it, mentally, physically, emotionally. Whether that's good or not, that's a tough question. You can see how the Russian government is trying to hold the line. It doesn't encourage open calls for destroying the enemy. In fact, it's gone so far that it's almost comical. There was this drone, one group built. They called it the big slicer. The military said, no, we're not buying anything with a name like that. Change it. So they renamed it something more neutral.
欧洲人对这场战争没有太多感受，但在俄罗斯，很多人已经在心理上、身体上和情感上做好了准备。这究竟是好是坏，是个很难的问题。可以看到俄罗斯政府在努力保持克制。它并没有鼓励公开呼吁消灭敌人。事实上，情况已经滑稽到某种程度。曾有一个小组制造了一架无人机，起名叫“大切削者”。军方表示，不会采购任何这样的名字的东西。于是，他们改了一个更中性的名字。
The authorities clearly want to avoid stirring up blind hatred toward Ukrainians. It's kind of like how Russians used to see Germans. For decades, the Soviet Union and later Russia promoted this idea. We defeated the Nazis, not the German people. The Nazis were one thing. Ordinary Germans were something else. That message ran deep. But the moment Germany sent leopard tanks to Ukraine, they erased all of that, wiped out 70 years of Soviet efforts to separate modern Germany from the Nazis. Now, on the front lines, the mood toward Germans is incredibly negative, the same with the Poles. Americans, they'll still be taken prisoner.
当局显然想要避免激起对乌克兰人的盲目仇恨。这有点像俄罗斯人过去对德国人的看法。数十年来，苏联和后来俄罗斯都在宣传这样一个观念：我们打败的是纳粹，而不是德国人民。纳粹是一回事，普通的德国人是另一回事。这个信息根深蒂固。但是，一旦德国向乌克兰派遣豹式坦克，他们就抹掉了这一切，推翻了苏联70年来努力将现代德国与纳粹区分开来的成就。现在，在前线，对德国人的情绪非常负面，对波兰人也是如此。至于美国人，他们还是会被俘虏。
But if you're Polish or German, forget it. You're not getting captured. Ukrainians, though, the mindset is different. People still see them as a kind of brotherly nation. Miss Lead, sure, filled with bad ideas, brainwashed by propaganda, but still ours, still family in a twisted way. But mercenaries, that's something else entirely. You came here from another country. No one invited you, no one threatened you. You showed up voluntarily. So now you're part of this and people really hate that. Especially when it comes to the Germans out and their hardware. Knocking out a German tank or vehicle. That's almost a personal goal now for every Russian soldier.
但如果你是波兰人或德国人，就别想了。你不会被俘虏。然而，对于乌克兰人来说，心态是不同的。人们仍然将他们视为兄弟般的国家。当然，他们可能会被误导，充满了错误的想法，被宣传洗脑，但在某种扭曲的方式中，他们仍然是我们的一份子，仍然是家庭。但雇佣兵则完全不同。你是从其他国家来的。没有人邀请你，也没有人威胁你。你是自愿出现的。所以你现在是这场冲突的一部分，人们对此真的很反感。尤其是当涉及到德国人及他们的装备时，击毁一辆德国坦克或车辆几乎成了每个俄罗斯士兵的个人目标。
It's like a new tradition, a kind of family legacy. What happened to the Lanset drones? I remember there were a lot of videos showing Lansets hitting Western supplied hardware. But lately, I barely see any new footage. It seems like most of the hits are now coming from FPV drones or fiber optic drones. So is the Lanset drone still relevant? Yeah, they're still relevant. But with the rise of interceptor drones on the Ukrainian side, their effectiveness has taken a bit of a hit. Not a huge drop, but it's noticeable.
这就像一种新传统，一种家族传承。兰塞特无人机怎么了？我记得以前有很多视频显示兰塞特无人机击中西方提供的设备。但最近，我几乎没看到新的视频片段。现在大多数攻击似乎都是来自FPV无人机或光纤无人机。那么，兰塞特无人机还重要吗？是的，它们仍然重要。但由于乌克兰方面拦截无人机的增加，它们的有效性有所下降。虽然不是大幅度的下降，但还是能感受到的。
What exactly is a drone interceptor? An interceptor drone is exactly what it sounds like. A drone designed to take out other drones, usually ones flying at higher altitudes. Most of them are multi-rotor types, copter-based. But some are fixed wing, built for high speed. The main idea is it has to be faster than the target it's chasing. Ukrainians have been pairing their interceptor drones with Israeli-made radar systems. That combo has allowed them to start targeting and knocking out Russian drones like the Orlan Zala and even the Lanset. Naturally, Russia is coming up with countermeasures.
无人机拦截器究竟是什么？顾名思义，拦截器无人机专门用于击落其他无人机，通常是那些飞得比较高的无人机。大多数拦截器无人机是多旋翼类型，即基于直升机原理的款式。但也有一些是固定翼的，专为高速设计。其核心理念是，它的速度必须比追踪的目标更快。乌克兰一直在将他们的拦截器无人机与以色列制造的雷达系统结合使用。这种组合使他们能够开始瞄准并击落俄罗斯的无人机，如Orlan Zala甚至Lanset。当然，俄罗斯也在研发应对措施。
For example, Zala, the company that makes the Lansets, has started adding rear-facing cameras to their recon drones. These cameras use machine vision and the moment they detect an interceptor closing in, the drone executes an evasive maneuver. Interceptor drones, as I mentioned, are fast, but they don't have much battery life. If they don't take down the target on the first pass, they usually run out of juice. Either they self-destruct or they just fall out of the sky. Meanwhile, the recon drone just keeps flying.
例如，制造Lansets的公司Zala开始在他们的侦查无人机上添加后置摄像头。这些摄像头利用机器视觉技术，一旦检测到拦截无人机接近，侦查无人机会立即执行躲避动作。我之前提到过，拦截无人机速度很快，但电池续航时间有限。如果它们在第一次攻击中没有成功击落目标，通常会耗尽电量。随后，要么自毁，要么直接从空中坠落。而此时，侦查无人机仍然可以继续飞行。
From a foot-soldier's point of view, what's the most reliable way to deal the drones right now? A hunting rifle? Could I have seen a bunch of videos showing those? Or maybe it's about throwing up some kind of netting? Or is it just hiding in the bushes and hoping for the best? One of the most effective tools for fighting drones is special anti-droner rounds for rifles. These are plastic cartridges that burst open when fired and release small pellets. So with each shot, you're firing three projectiles instead of one.
从步兵的角度来看，目前应对无人机最可靠的方法是什么？猎枪行不行？我是不是看过许多相关的视频？或者是可以抛撒某种网？还是只能躲在灌木丛中不被发现？实际上，对付无人机最有效的工具之一是专用的反无人机子弹。这些是塑料弹壳，发射时会爆裂，并释放出小弹丸。因此，每次开火时，你发射的是三个弹丸，而不是一个。
And why rifles and not shotguns? Well, first off, carrying a shotgun plus ammo is added weight. On top of your standard rifle is just not practical. Second, today's drones often carry up to three kilograms of explosives, which is serious. So if you shoot it down with a shotgun and it explodes five meters from you, the shrapnel's still hitting you. There's not much difference. You're still in the danger zone. With a rifle loaded with anti-droner rounds, you stay at a safer distance and you can keep your rate of fire up.
为什么选择步枪而不是猎枪呢？首先，携带猎枪以及弹药会增加额外的重量，加在你已有的步枪装备上并不实用。其次，如今的无人机通常能携带多达三公斤的炸药，这很具有威胁性。如果你用猎枪击落它，它在离你五米远的地方爆炸时，碎片仍然会伤到你。这样的话几乎没有区别，你仍然处于危险之中。而如果使用装有反无人机弹药的步枪，你可以保持在更安全的距离，同时还能保持较高的射击速度。
The goal is to create a kind of saturation, a cloud of projectiles in the air that gives you a real chance of scoring a hit, even if the drone is moving fast or erratically. I've also seen both Ukrainian and Russian troops stretching nets along key supply routes. How effective is that really? They are effective, but you've got to remember if the target is valuable, the enemy might just send two drones instead of one. The first one can rip through the net, then the second drone flies in through the opening and strikes the target.
目标是制造一种密集状态，就像在空中形成一个弹幕云，这样即使无人机飞得快或轨迹不稳定，你也有很大的机会击中它。我还看到乌克兰和俄罗斯军队沿着关键补给路线拉起网来防御。这种方法真的有效吗？确实有效，但你必须记住，如果目标非常重要，敌人可能会派出两架无人机而不是一架。第一架无人机可以穿过网，然后第二架无人机从打开的缺口进入并攻击目标。
Russian fiber optic drones can also deal with nets, which usually don't go all the way to the ground. So there's often a small gap at the bottom, and since fiber optic drones can fly at super low altitudes, without losing connection, they can just dip under the net, crawl into the gap and wait. We've seen more and more Ukrainian videos lately showing these drones getting into those tunnel-like spaces under the netting.
俄罗斯的光纤无人机也可以处理网状障碍物，这些网通常不会一直延伸到地面。因此，常常在底部留有一个小缝隙，由于光纤无人机能够在超低空飞行而不失去连接，它们可以轻松从网下钻进去，进入这个缝隙并在那等待。最近，我们看到越来越多的乌克兰视频显示这些无人机进入网下隧道般的空间。
And what about more advanced industrial-level ways to deal with drones? Where's all of that heading right now? I've read a lot about lasers being the next big thing. Supposedly they can shoot drones down pretty efficiently. For a large distance, this is of course a fignia, because lasers, honestly, they're kind of a joke. The atmosphere is full of moisture, and when a high-powered laser hits it, it actually starts evaporating that water, basically creating a cloud of steam, so it ends up blinding itself.
关于更先进的工业级无人机应对方法，现状如何呢？我看到很多文章说激光可能会成为下一个大趋势。据说激光可以非常有效地击落无人机。然而，对于远距离目标来说，这其实是个笑话。激光的问题在于，空气中充满了水汽，当高功率激光碰到水汽时，会导致水分蒸发，基本上会形成一团蒸汽云，从而挡住自己的视线。
That's why you see all these Israeli or American laser demos happening in ideal conditions, dry weather, controlled environments. Yeah, it works in theory. But we're not seeing widespread use for some reason. That said, at around 150 meters, lasers can be very effective. At that range, atmospheric interference hasn't really built up, and the air is still clear enough for the beam to hit cleanly. Unlike a machine gun, a laser doesn't need to reload. It can keep firing as long as there's battery left.
这就是为什么你会看到以色列或美国的激光演示通常在理想条件下进行，比如干燥的天气和受控的环境中。是的，这在理论上是可行的，但出于某些原因，我们还没有看到这种技术的广泛使用。也就是说，在大约150米的距离内，激光可以非常有效。在这个距离上，大气干扰还不明显，空气足够清晰，激光束能准确击中目标。与机枪不同，激光不需要重新装弹。只要电池有电，它就能持续发射。
Against an unarmored target, like a drone, a laser is incredibly effective. It can blind cameras, fry wiring, burn through batteries. A 500 watt laser is a great tool. And right now, both Russia and Ukraine are actively working on developing short-range laser systems, just like that. When it comes to protecting individual infantrymen, only one thing helps, running fast. You're not going to invent some magic fix. Backpack mounted jammers, total nonsense. There's always going to be some frequency that the jammer doesn't cover. You strap on this massive backpack with 20 antennas sticking out, and then a drone comes flying in. Now you're supposed to somehow guess what frequency it's using and turn on the right jammer. What actually happens is euphoric, flip everything on at once, and now you've just told the entire front line, hey, here's where our jamming frequencies are.
对于没有装甲的目标，比如无人机，激光是非常有效的。它可以致盲摄像头、烧坏电线、烧穿电池。500瓦的激光是一个很有用的工具。现在，俄罗斯和乌克兰都在积极研发这类短程激光系统。
至于保护单个步兵，唯一有效的方法就是跑得快。你不可能发明出什么神奇的解决办法。背包式干扰器是完全没有用的。总会有一些频率是干扰器覆盖不到的。你背上一个装有20根天线的巨大背包，然后无人机飞来了。这个时候，你需要猜测无人机使用的频率，并开启正确的干扰器。实际上，人们会激动地同时打开所有设备，然后整个前线都会知道："嘿，这就是我们的干扰频率。"
The enemy sends a drone to a different frequency when your backpack doesn't block. And boom, it hits the guy carrying that expensive jammer. So yeah, it's useless. It's like wearing a good luck charm. The only real effect is psychological. The best defense for infantry is still smart movement. Move fast, stay unpredictable. Stay in wooded areas on the branches near vegetation. The places where a drone might get tangled, where its contact fuses might snag on a branch and detonate before it reaches you. That's what actually works. How do you see drone technology evolving over the next decade? How do you see drone technology evolving over the next decade? And where do you see your own company going in the near future? There are really two possible paths ahead.
敌人在你的背包无法屏蔽的时候，将无人机调到不同的频率。就在那一刻，它击中了携带昂贵干扰器的人。因此，这种干扰器形同虚设，就像带个护身符一样，只有心理作用。对步兵来说，最有效的防御依然是聪明的行动策略。快速移动，保持难以预测。待在植被繁茂的地方，树枝容易缠住无人机的地方，它的引信可能会被树枝刮住并在到达你之前引爆。这才是真正有效的方法。
你认为在未来十年间，无人机技术会如何发展？你认为你自己的公司在不久的将来会有怎样的发展？未来真的有两种可能的发展路径。
The first one is that once the war ends, people like me, the private developers, will be forgotten. Drone R&D will get handed back to the big state-owned enterprises. These companies are already sitting on subsidies. Their people get paid no matter what. So they'll design something slowly, maybe roll out an FPV drone by 2030. And then it'll go through endless rounds of testing and training exercises. That's the state path. Do you know the difference between Russian and American military exercises? In Russian exercises? Russia always wins. In American drills, though, the US sometimes loses. There was a NATO exercise right before the war in Ukraine. The Americans played the role of the Russians. And the rest of NATO played, well, NATO. And the Americans completely crushed them, especially the Italians.
第一个原因是，一旦战争结束，像我这样的私人开发者就会被遗忘。无人机的研发将被交回给国有企业。这些公司已经享受了补贴。不管怎么样，他们的员工都会得到报酬。所以他们会慢悠悠地设计，也许到2030年才会推出一款FPV无人机。然后还要经历没完没了的测试和训练演习。这就是国有企业的做法。你知道俄美军事演习的区别吗？在俄罗斯的演习中，俄罗斯总是获胜。而在美国的演习中，美国有时会输。在乌克兰战争前就有一次北约演习。美国扮演了俄罗斯的角色，而北约其他国家扮演了自己。结果美国完全击败了他们，尤其是意大利。
It was like something out of a joke. They started making coffee in the morning, gave away their position with the smoke, and got wiped out. Maybe that's why the Americans are better at spotting weaknesses in their forces. In Russia, it takes an actual war. Only then do the flaws start to show. The second point is that Russia actually learns from all this. And then we have the second path, the one I hope we take. Is that Russia actually learns from all this? That we finally realize, even just by looking at how Western defense industries operate, that private companies drive progress. I mean, private firms move faster. They're more motivated, more agile.
这就像一个笑话。他们早上开始煮咖啡，烟雾暴露了他们的位置，结果全军覆没。或许这就是为什么美国人更善于发现部队中的弱点。在俄罗斯，要等到真正的战争开始，问题才会逐渐显露。而第二点在于俄罗斯确实能从中吸取教训。我们有另一条路，希望我们能选择这条路。我们是否能从中吸取教训？通过观察西方的国防工业运作，认识到私人公司推动了进步。我的意思是，私人企业行动更迅速，更有动力，也更具灵活性。
They can spot gaps in the market and develop new tech quicker than any massive, slow-moving government company. Even if that company is full of smart people. And I mean that I'm not being sarcastic. Russia's defense sector has really sharp people. I've seen what they're capable of, especially when working under tight restrictions, and with limited resources. It's impressive. It really is. But right now, they're running on adrenaline, wartime pressure. Once the war ends, they'll relax, they'll get medals, take a long vacation. And most likely, everything will slow down, unless the government steps in and decides to change the model. The innovation will stall.
他们可以比任何庞大且行动缓慢的国有企业更快地发现市场空白并开发新技术。即便这个企业拥有很多聪明的人。我不是在讽刺，俄罗斯的国防部门确实有很厉害的人。我见识过他们在紧迫的限制和有限的资源下能做到什么，真的很令人惊叹。但眼下，他们靠的是肾上腺素和战争压力。一旦战争结束，他们会放松下来，得到勋章，休长假。很可能，一切都会慢下来，除非政府介入并决定改变模式，否则创新将停滞。
I'll be fine, even in the civilian sector. There's a huge amount of electronics work to be done in Russia right now. Tons of Western manufacturers have pulled out. And good riddance. We're already replacing them in most areas and we'll keep pushing forward. Import substitution is still official policy. It hasn't gone anywhere. So yeah, I'll survive. I'll do well, no matter what. But I'd really prefer to keep doing what I'm doing now. It actually matters. But I'd like to work on what I'm doing now. Thank you so much for the interview. This was incredibly interesting. And honestly, your depth of knowledge about drones is truly impressive.
我会没事的，即使是在民用领域。目前在俄罗斯有大量的电子工作需要完成。许多西方制造商已经退出了。那也没关系，我们已经在大部分领域替代了他们，并将继续前进。进口替代依然是官方政策，并没有改变。所以，我会活得很好。不论如何，我都能过得不错。不过，我真的更愿意继续我现在正在做的事情，因为这很重要。我希望能继续从事现在的工作。非常感谢这次采访。这次谈话非常有趣。坦率地说，您对无人机的深入了解真是令人钦佩。