Markets Weekly July 4, 2025
发布时间 2025-07-04 15:55:35 来源
Hello my friends, today is July 4th and this is Markets Weekly. First off, I wish everyone a happy Independence Day. This past week was a short and holiday trading week, but we did see the S&P 500 surged to new all-time highs. One of the interesting stories I heard the past week comes from Charlie McGell-Yet of Namora, speaking on odd lots that he thinks one of the big drivers of this huge surge has been corporate buybacks. The trade war, according to him, has been paradoxically good for stocks because corporations facing enormous amounts of economic uncertainty, not wanting to hire, not wanting to invest, have just spent their money on share buybacks and share buybacks, apparently have been extremely high historically and that's been contributing to strengthen the market.
你好，我的朋友们，今天是7月4日，欢迎收听《市场周报》。首先，祝大家独立日快乐。过去这一周是一个短暂的假期交易周，但我们看到标普500指数飙升至新的历史新高。上周我听到一个有趣的故事，来自Namora的Charlie McGell-Yet在《Odd Lots》节目中表示，他认为此次大幅飙升的一个主要推动力是企业回购股票。他说，尽管贸易战带来了巨大的经济不确定性，但这反而对股市有利，因为公司在不愿意雇佣和投资的情况下，把资金用于回购股票。显然，股票回购数量创下历史新高，这也在助推市场的强劲表现。
In any case, today let's talk about three things. First off, it is Independence Day, so let's talk a little bit about the UK, which had a bit of a kerfuffle in markets. That did reverberate globally. Secondly, let's talk about what's happening in the US. We have the passage of the President's signature, big, beautiful bill, as well as non-farm payrolls. And lastly, let's have an update on the trade war, which seems to be heating up.
无论如何，今天我们来谈三件事。首先，今天是独立纪念日，我们先聊聊英国，市场上有些动荡，对全球也有些影响。其次，讲讲美国的情况，最近总统签署了一项重大的法案，还有非农就业数据也值得关注。最后，我们更新一下贸易战的情况，似乎有升温的趋势。
Alright, starting with the UK. Well, first off, a little bit of context. Now, a few years ago, Prime Minister Liz Truss of the UK unveiled this big spending task cut bill that freaked out the UK bond market at that time. And of course, this was in part due to leveraged positions there. The UK yields surged, UK pound depreciated and UK equities sold off. Basically, classic emerging market stuff. Now since then, the UK government has been more sensitive as to the amount of fiscal room they have, and they've been trying to have a more sustainable fiscal budget.
好的，先从英国说起。首先，提供一些背景信息。几年前，英国首相利兹·特拉斯公布了一项大规模削减支出计划的法案，这在当时让英国的债券市场感到震惊。当然，这在一定程度上是因为市场中存在杠杆化的头寸。于是，英国国债收益率飙升，英镑贬值，英国股市下跌。基本上，这些都是典型的新兴市场现象。自那以后，英国政府对可支配的财政空间变得更加谨慎，他们一直在努力实现更具可持续性的财政预算。
Fast forward to today. Chester of the UK, Rachel Reeves, has been trying to reduce spending by reducing the amount of benefits, reducing eligibility on certain benefits. This is, of course, very unpopular, but of course, benefit spending is a big part of their budget. However, Rachel Reeves wasn't able to get the benefits cuts that she's been seeking and there was some speculation on Wednesday that maybe she might lose her job. Again, the market interpreted that, you know, if you get rid of a austerity focused chance there, it's probably a replaced by someone that is more pro-spending.
快进到今天，来自英国切斯特的瑞秋·里夫斯一直尝试通过减少福利金额和收紧某些福利的资格来降低支出。这样做当然非常不受欢迎，但福利支出确实是他们预算中的一个重要部分。然而，瑞秋·里夫斯未能实现她一直以来寻求的福利削减措施，并且在周三有人猜测她可能会失去工作。市场解读认为，如果她这样一个专注于紧缩政策的官员被免职，可能会由一个更支持增加支出的人来接替她的位置。
And so, concerns about the UK fiscal project we came back. And we saw UK yields surged, UK pound depreciated, and of course, UK equities sell off. Yes, deficit spending can be bad for equities, depends on the context. In any case, Prime Minister Starmer seems to have been walking back, or any concerns about Rachel Reeves losing her job, and so the markets have calmed down a bit. But that again, brings us to the question, what makes the UK so special governments all across the world have her having fiscal difficulties, and it's not really clear why the UK is being single doubt.
因此，人们对英国财政项目的担忧回来了。我们看到英国国债收益率飙升，英镑贬值，当然也导致英国股票市场下跌。是的，赤字支出可能对股市有不利影响，这要看具体情况。无论如何，首相斯塔默似乎正努力缓解人们对瑞秋·里夫斯失去工作的担忧，所以市场稍微平静了一些。但这又引出了一个问题，是什么让英国如此特别？ 世界各地的政府都面临财政困难，却不清楚为何英国会被单独挑出来。
UK was, of course, once upon a time, someone with a very strong financial system, very strong currency, but today, not the same. So looking at the numbers, looking at, say, debt to GDP, the UK is about 100 percent debt to GDP. On that point, really not exceptional. You have other countries like Japan who are in a much worse situation. Looking at their fiscal deficit, it's around 4 percent, which is relatively high, not as high as the US and not as high as France. But they look like they're trying to get it under control, with projections showing that the fiscal deficit is going to close significantly in the coming years.
英国曾经拥有非常强大的金融体系和非常强势的货币，而如今情况已经不同。根据数据显示，英国的债务与国内生产总值（GDP）比率大约是100%。从这方面来说，这个比例并不算特别高，还有其他国家，比如日本，情况更糟糕。再看他们的财政赤字，大约是4%，这个比例相对较高，但还没有美国和法国那么高。不过看起来他们正在努力控制这个问题，预计在未来几年，财政赤字会显著缩小。
And the way they're closing this, of course, is through higher taxes. Tax revenue as a percentage of GDP has been rising and is forecast to rise further. Now the UK seems to be converging on towards other high tax countries in Western Europe, although quite a bit away from the US, which, as we all know, just past big tax cuts. Now one thing about this, though, is that you can think of having higher taxes as closing the fiscal deficit, but sometimes it doesn't work because higher taxes also impact growth.
他们通过提高税收来解决这个问题。税收收入占GDP的比例一直在上升，并预计还会进一步上升。英国现在似乎正在向其它西欧高税收国家靠拢，尽管仍与最近大幅减税的美国相距甚远。不过，需要注意的是，可以通过提高税收来缩小财政赤字，但有时这种方法并不起作用，因为较高的税收也会对经济增长产生影响。
One of the things we've seen in the UK the past few years is a massive exodus of wealthy people. This consultancy is estimating that UK is going to lose over 16,000 millionaires. This here far more than any other country as they try to tax more and more of these rich people who have assets elsewhere, but just happen to reside in, say, London. So there's been a massive flight of them to other countries like the UAE, which are more tax-friendly. If you do that, you're voting your tax base, and so higher taxes end up self-defeating.
近年来，我们在英国看到的现象之一是大量的富人外流。根据一家咨询公司的估计，英国将失去超过16,000名百万富翁，这一数字远超其他国家。这是因为英国政府试图对这些富人在英国居住但在其他地方持有资产的人征收更多的税。因此，许多富有人群纷纷转移到像阿联酋这样的税收更友好的国家。如果这样做，你实际上是在迁移你的税基，结果是，高税收政策最终适得其反。
Now the UK has had overall growth over the past few years, but a lot of that growth seems to have come from just importing a lot of people. When we look at GDP, we think of it as a measure of economic well-being, but that's only true if we look at GDP on a per capita basis. And on a per capita basis, UK GDP just hasn't gone anywhere for, say, a decade. Their growth, overall growth, has in large part just been importing masses of amounts of people like other countries have been doing, and that has its own political impacts as well. So the UK is definitely in a situation where there's not a lot of growth. Taxes are going higher, not making it better, and the fiscal situation is not great either. So definitely not a great place to be, but also something that's just not uncommon among other Western countries.
近年来，英国的整体经济增长似乎主要是由于大量移民的流入。当我们考察GDP时，通常将其视为经济健康的指标，但这只有在按人均GDP来看时才成立。从人均GDP来看，英国的经济状况在过去十年里实际上并没有太大变化。他们的整体增长很大程度上依赖于与其他国家类似的大规模移民政策，但这也带来了自己的一些政治影响。因此，英国现在的经济增长并不多。税收在增加，这并没有改善情况，而财政状况也不理想。这显然不是一个好的处境，但这种情况在其他西方国家中也很常见。
So I would think that eventually the markets would also become sensitive to developments in other Western countries as well. We know that we've seen recently that they have been more sensitive to French bonnodes because of the French spending situation is also not good. And eventually, they may become sensitive to what's happening in the United States. We saw a little bit of that in April, but so far, thus far, it's mostly manifested in dollar depreciation, which I write about this week, why I think that the dollar has much, much further to fall. OK, now let's talk a little bit about developments in the US. Two big developments this week, the passage of the President's signature, BBB Bill, and also we got the non-farm payrolls print, which surprised hugely to the upside.
我认为市场最终也会对其他西方国家的动态变得敏感。我们发现，最近市场对法国债券的敏感度有所提高，因为法国的财政状况也不太好。最终，市场可能会对美国的情况变得更加敏感。我们在四月份对此有所察觉，但到目前为止，这主要表现为美元贬值。我这周写了为什么我认为美元还有很大的下跌空间。现在，让我们来聊聊美国的动态。本周有两个重大事件：总统的标志性法案BBB法案的通过，以及非农就业数据的公布，后者的提升幅度让人大为惊讶。
Now in thinking about the big, beautiful bill, it really depends on what your expectations were. Now the President had campaigned on being fiscally responsible. We had Secretary Besen go around and say he has a 333 plan where he wants the fiscal deficit to have a three handle. And in the beginning of Trump's presidency, he appointed Elon to be hit a doge, and Elon very close to the president, very influential person, and sincerely wanted to do something about the fiscal situation. So there's a lot of reasons to think that the fiscal deficit would become smaller. And that turned out to be totally wrong. Now the BBB, according to forecast, is going to mean a fiscal deficit of about 6 to 7% basically for the foreseeable future. Now the big spending part of the BBB is just renewing Trump tax cuts.
现在，关于这个“大而美”的法案，主要取决于你对它的期望是什么。总统在竞选时承诺要负责任地管理财政。我们有财政部长贝森到处宣称他有一个333计划，希望将财政赤字控制在3%以内。而在特朗普总统任期初期，他任命埃隆（Elon）处理相关事务，埃隆与总统关系密切，是位非常有影响力的人，并且他真诚地想解决财政问题。所以有很多理由相信财政赤字会缩小。但事实证明这完全是错误的。现在，根据预测，BBB法案将意味着今后财政赤字大约会是6%到7%。而BBB中大笔开支的部分其实就是延续了特朗普的减税政策。
So on a delta basis, you can say that it's not that big of a difference. It does add these other, say, depreciation stuff that does mean more spending. But in terms of incremental new spending, compared to what we were already doing, it's not large. I think the big impact is that if you are expecting some kind of fiscal restraint, you just didn't get it. Now these fiscal bills are also always designed in certain ways that you don't really know what the total cost is because many measures are designed to sunset in the next few years. To make the overall price tag look smaller, although in practice, as we see now, these provisions are actually rolled over by future Congresses because tax cuts are just unpopular.
从增量变化的角度来看，可以说这并没有那么大的差别。虽然新增了一些诸如折旧之类的项目，确实意味着会有更多的支出。但就新增支出而言，与我们已经在做的相比，其实并不多。我认为最大的影响是，如果你期待某种财政紧缩，那就不会实现。现在，这些财政法案通常是以一种让人难以真正了解总成本的方式设计的，因为许多措施计划在未来几年内逐步结束。这样做是为了使整体价格看起来更低，但实际上，如我们所见，这些政策往往会被未来的国会延续下去，因为减税通常不受欢迎。
Now to be fair to the President, a lot of these estimates don't take into account what we're receiving in Terrafravenue. And on an incremental basis, it looks like we're receiving an extra 200 billion a year. Of course, that could change. We could have a new president. We could have no changes in Terrafrazen, so forth. But so far, an extra 200 billion a year does help. But at the end of the day, it still looks like by all accounts, we're going to have, say, 6% of fiscal deficit for the foreseeable future. And if interest rates were to say higher, that could be that go higher.
为了公平对待总统，需要指出的是，很多这些估算并没有考虑到我们在Terrafravenue收到的收入。从增量上看，我们似乎每年额外获得了2000亿。当然，这种情况可能会改变，我们可能会换新总统，Terrafravenue可能没有变化等等。但到目前为止，每年额外的2000亿确实有所帮助。但总的来看，各方面的迹象似乎都表明，在可以预见的未来，我们仍将面临约6%的财政赤字。如果利率上升，赤字可能会进一步扩大。
So the way that I like to think about the fiscal deficit is not so much focus on these numbers because again, a lot of stuff is hidden whether or not tax cuts would be renewed, whether or not we'll have new spending. And ultimately comes down to the political willingness of Congress to tackle spending. Is there a price to pay for spending too much money? When there is, like there is in the UK, we have the government respond and we get some sort of spending cuts. At the moment, we don't really see a big price to pay for spending. So it's going to continue until it doesn't, until maybe we have some kind of currency issue, maybe until the stock market goes down.
我对财政赤字的看法是不太关注具体数字，因为许多影响因素是隐藏的，比如税收减免是否会被延续，是否会有新的开支。归根结底，这取决于国会在多大程度上有政治意愿来解决开支问题。花太多钱会有代价吗？如果有，比如在英国那样，我们就会看到政府的回应和某种程度上的削减开支。目前，我们并没有看到过度开支带来大的代价。因此，这种情况会持续下去，直到出现问题，可能是货币问题，也可能是股市下跌。
And then, and then we'll find the political vote to change things. So so far, it looks like it's as many on Twitter say there's nothing stopping the strain until it impacts the markets. Then we will see something stopped the strain when that happens. We'll see, we'll see it's happening in the UK. We had inklings of this in April. So maybe not as far off as many people think.
然后，我们会找到推动政治变革的投票。目前来看，正如许多推特用户所说，没有什么能阻止事态发展，除非它对市场产生影响。到那时，我们会看到事情被迫停止。这种情况在英国正在发生。我们在四月份就有这种迹象。所以，也许事情并没有很多人认为的那么遥远。
All right, the second piece of news and I'll sing on the domestic front is of course non-farm payrolls report. Now heading into the NFP, many people, including myself, we're expecting a weak print. While we're expecting a weak print, well, if you look at continuing jobless claims, they continue to go higher. That tells me that people who lose their jobs are having increasingly more trouble to find new jobs.
好的，第二条新闻是关于国内方面的，那就是非农就业报告。在这次非农报告公布之前，我和许多人都预期数据会比较疲软。为什么我们预期数据会疲软呢？因为持续申请失业救济的人数在不断增加。这表明失去工作的人在重新找到新工作的过程中遇到越来越多的困难。
And the ADP reported actually at negative payroll growth. So ADP is this huge payroll processing firm. If you are a company in the US and you hire employees, and oftentimes you will hire ADP to do the payroll processing for you. So ADP has very good data as to what's happening in the employment market. And to be clear, what the ADP has been reporting is oftentimes not strongly related to the official non-farm payrolls report, but it is a good signal.
ADP报告显示实际就业增长为负。ADP是一家大型的薪资处理公司。如果你在美国拥有公司并雇佣员工，通常会聘请ADP来为你处理薪资。因此，ADP掌握了就业市场的详细数据。需要说明的是，ADP的报告与官方的非农就业报告之间的相关性通常不高，但它还是一个不错的参考信号。
And they were saying last month there was actually job loss. So negative growth. So expectations for this NFP, NFP, and the work were pretty low. And to the surprise of the market, they were actually much, much higher than expected. We created on that about 140,000 jobs. And in addition to that, the unemployment rate sank from 4.3% to 4.1%. So this was an un-un-un-equivically big offside surprise, big positive upside surprise on the job growth and the market responding accordingly, pricing out, rate cuts, again, equity markets, happy with the strong growth.
上个月他们说实际上有工作岗位减少，出现了负增长。因此，大家对这次非农就业数据（NFP）的预期很低。然而出乎市场意料，这次的数据远远高于预期。我们增加了大约14万个工作岗位。此外，失业率从4.3%下降到4.1%。这无疑是一个巨大的意外惊喜，工作增长超出预期，市场也相应作出了反应，不再考虑降息，股市对这强劲的增长表示欢迎。
And the rest you see on the screen. No, one thing to keep in mind though, as we're looking into the details of this print, it is there is some ambiguity here. Well, first off, looking into the details, part of the reason why that the unemployment rate went down is that the labor participation rate went down. And so you have fewer people working, fewer people looking for jobs. Also, it's worth noting that weight growth has moderated.
屏幕上剩下的部分就是你看到的。不过，有一点需要注意的是，当我们查看这份报告的详细信息时，其中存在一些不明确的地方。首先，深入查看细节时，失业率下降的部分原因是劳动参与率下降了，这意味着工作的人和找工作的人都减少了。另外，值得注意的是工资增长已放缓。
And also looking into the composition of the jobs created, it looks like the bulk of them come from the public sector. So state and local governments, so hiring for schools and so forth, where private sector job creation continues to be declining. And public sector job creation has to do with legislation and things like that, whereas private sector job creation is more linked to the status of the economy.
同时，查看新增就业岗位的构成，大部分来自公共部门。这意味着州和地方政府，比如学校的招聘等，而私营部门的就业增长仍在下降。公共部门的就业增长与立法等因素有关，而私营部门的就业增长则更多与经济状况相关。
So that's something to keep in mind as well. So the print may not be as strong as it suggested and the overall trend of the labor market still seems to suggest moderation or weakening. Okay, now the last thing that I want to talk about is of course the trade war. Now we had Liberation Day and that I would say that the administration probably wish they did not do what they did.
所以这也是需要记住的一点。因此，数据显示的情况可能没有那么乐观，劳动力市场的整体趋势似乎仍然显示出放缓或减弱的迹象。好了，现在我最后要谈的是贸易战。当然，我们经历了“解放日”的事情，我想说政府可能希望他们没有采取这样的行动。
And so the trade fund has been pretty quiet. President Trump said down this trade truth. Everyone just goes down to paying 10% minimum tariffs and then we'll talk with the troops expiring maybe July 9th. But the president has also been saying that you know that's not a hard day. People have to lean to see you know maybe we'll make a deal or something like that.
因此，贸易基金一直相对平静。特朗普总统表示，他们已平息此贸易争端。每个人暂时都只需支付至少10%的关税，然后再讨论可能在7月9日到期的协议。但总统也表示，这并不是一个固定的日期。大家需要灵活应对，看看是否能达成协议或类似的解决方案。
So it doesn't seem to be super strict. But between that and now a couple of things have happened. Yes, the president probably knows that he shouldn't be messing with true too much the markets and like that. But on the other hand, he did finish the big beautiful bill. So that's his big signature legislation that's passed. He doesn't have to care so much about Congress anymore.
所以情况看起来并不是特别严苛。但在这段时间里，发生了一些事情。是的，总统可能知道他不应该过多干预市场之类的。不过另一方面，他确实完成了一项重要的立法——那个被称为“大而美”的法案。所以他不再需要过多关注国会了。
And also markets are at all time highs. That gives him I think a little bit of room to be a little bit more disruptive since he doesn't have to pay a political price for it. So does that mean the president is going to I guess heat up on the trade war front? Well, let's listen to what he said yesterday. We're going to start sending letters out to various countries starting tomorrow.
另外，市场处于历史高位。我认为这给他一点空间去采取更具破坏性的行动，因为他不必为此付出政治代价。那么这是否意味着总统会在贸易战方面加码呢？我们来听听他昨天说了些什么：从明天开始，我们将向多个国家发送信件。
We'll probably have 10 or 12 go out tomorrow. And over the next few days I think by the night they'll be fully covered. And they'll range in value from maybe 60 or 70% tariffs to 10 and 20% tariffs. So it sounds like what's going to happen is that you know he doesn't really want to be talking to people all that much anymore.
我们明天可能会有10到12个出去。在接下来的几天里，我认为到晚上它们会被完全覆盖。它们的价值范围可能从60%或70%的关税到10%和20%的关税。所以听起来他好像不太愿意再跟人交流了。
Obviously 200 countries doesn't have to talk to all these small penguin islands and whatnot. So he's going to be sending out letters starting July 4th all the way through July 9th, just telling people you're going to pay this. And in some cases it's going to be as high as 70%. Now we did have a trade deal the past week with Vietnam details aren't very clear.
显然，200个国家无需与所有这些小的企鹅岛等进行对话。因此，他将在7月4日至7月9日期间开始发送信件，仅仅是告诉一些人他们将要支付这笔费用。在某些情况下，这些费用将高达70%。我们上周与越南达成了一项贸易协议，但细节还不太清楚。
But what surprised me was that the ultimate territory for Vietnam was actually higher than the 10% minimum that Vietnam had been paying during the interim. It's 20%. It's just lower than the initial liberation tariffs. But still higher than that 10% baseline that we've all been accustomed to. So there is scope here for tariffs to go higher than what everyone is expecting.
让我感到惊讶的是，越南的最终关税竟然比越南在过渡期间支付的10%最低标准还要高，实际达到了20%。虽然这个数字比最初的自由化关税低，但仍然高于大家已经习惯的10%基准。因此，这里存在关税上升超过大家预期的可能性。
Something else that's interesting in the Vietnam deal is it seems like the Trump administration is trying to crack down specifically on transshipping from China or China. Again, China, US trade talks looks like they're going to be frozen because while China has this rare Trump card in the US can't overcome it. So one of the things that's been happening is that China has been shipping stuff to other countries who then transship to the US.
在越南协议中，有件事很有趣，那就是特朗普政府似乎正试图特别打击来自中国的转运行为。再说一次，中美贸易谈判似乎要搁置，因为中国有一个美国无法克服的罕见王牌。因此，正在发生的事情之一是，中国将货物运到其他国家，然后这些国家再转运到美国。
Now the US seems to be cracking down on that by imposing a 40% tax on that. But we'll see what happens. Maybe potentially this could mean that we could have a lot more origin tracing on goods that actually could impact the ultimate territory people are paying.
现在，美国似乎正在对此进行打击，征收40%的税。不过我们还得看看结果如何。可能这意味着我们会对商品的产地进行更多的追踪，这实际上可能会影响到人们最终支付的价格。
One thing other thing to note is that close allies like Japan and Korea and the U really haven't gone anywhere on their trade deals. There's always talks about trade deals upcoming, upcoming, upcoming, but they never seem to materialize. So there does seem to be some impasse on the trade deals.
需要注意的一点是，日本、韩国以及美国等紧密盟友在贸易协议上的进展并不明显。尽管总是有传闻说新的贸易协议即将达成，但它们似乎从未真正实现。因此，这些贸易协议似乎遇到了一些障碍。
Maybe other countries are thinking that Trump would just taco and chicken out. At the moment, it does seem like there is some political capital to play with from Trump's detective. So I guess we'll find out very quickly if there is a resurgence in trade concerns.
也许其他国家认为特朗普只是虚张声势，最终会退缩。目前看来，特朗普的策略似乎还有一些政治资本可以利用。所以，我想我们很快就会知道，贸易问题是否会再次引起关注。
All right, so that's all I prepared for today. Thanks for much tuning in and I'll talk to you guys next week.
好的，这就是我今天准备的全部内容。非常感谢大家的收听，我们下周再见。