Markets Weekly June 28, 2025

Hello my friends, today is June 28th and this is markets weekly. So this past week was another exciting week where we had all these events happen. We started the week with the US basically attacking Iran and we ended the week with equities at all time highs. Now I had thought the stock market would top earlier in the year and I've been completely wrong. Now today let's talk about two things. First let's have a big segment where we talk about data, markets, political events and so forth because there's just so much happening what would normally be a big new story is just quickly surpassed by another. That's the Trump era I guess. And secondly let's talk about some what I think is the most interesting news the past week. That is the prospect of an upcoming shadow fed chair.

大家好，今天是6月28日，欢迎收听本周的市场周报。过去的一周再次充满了各种事件的精彩开始。我们以美国对伊朗的攻击作为一周的开端，并在周末时看到股市达到了历史高位。我原本以为股市会在年初见顶，但事实证明我完全错了。今天我们来讨论两件事。首先，我们要用一大部分时间来谈谈数据、市场、政治事件等等，因为现在的事件层出不穷，每一个本来应该成为大新闻的事件都很快被另一个取代。我想这就是所谓的特朗普时代。其次，我们谈谈上周我认为最有趣的新闻，那就是潜在的影子联储主席的前景。

All right starting with miscellaneous stuff. So as we all know last week the US executed a very successful bombing mission on Iranian nuclear facilities. Now there's some debate. There's a fog of war as to how impactful those activities were. Some people say you know said Iran back by a few months. Others say it's been completely destroyed. It's really hard to know. But one of the most interesting stories I've heard on this comes from say Hirsch which as we all know is a very famous journalist. He's the person who broke the story about the bombing of the Nord Stream pipeline a few years ago. Noting that it was the US who bombed the pipeline and not Russia bombing their own pipeline. Which of course was obviously ridiculous.

好的，先从一些杂事开始讨论。正如我们所知，上周美国对伊朗核设施进行了非常成功的轰炸任务。现在对此存在一些争议，对这些活动的影响程度有些战争迷雾。有些人说这将伊朗的核计划推迟了几个月，而另一些人则认为已被完全摧毁。确切情况很难判断。但我听说过的一个最有趣的故事来自著名记者西摩·赫什。众所周知，他是几年前揭露北溪管道爆炸事件的人，指出是美国炸毁了管道，而不是俄罗斯炸毁自己的管道，这显然非常荒谬。

Now if you see more Hirsch has very good sources and he actually called the weekend strike a few days earlier according to his sources they were going to strike the past weekend and that did come to pass. Now his latest information that I haven't heard elsewhere is that the strike on the Iranian facilities specifically that the really fortified one deep underground wasn't actually intended to destroy the facility which as many experts have noted is extremely difficult even with the really big bombs because it's so far underground. According to his reporting the bomb strikes were meant to basically entomb. So the strikes were targeted at the entrances into the Fort O'nuclear facility rather than the facility itself.

现在，如果你注意到，Hirsch 有非常好的消息来源，他实际上在几天前就预测到了周末的袭击。这些消息来源称，他们计划在上周末进行袭击，而这确实发生了。他最新的消息（我在其他地方没有听到过）是关于对伊朗设施的袭击。具体来说，那座位于深地下、非常坚固的设施并不是想被摧毁。很多专家指出，即便使用非常强大的炸弹，要摧毁如此深埋的设施也是极其困难的。根据他的报道，这次轰炸的目的实际上是想封堵通道。所以，袭击是针对进入福特尔核设施的入口，而不是设施本身。

And by destroying those entrances that means that no one can get in or out of the facility effectively ending its functionality. So according to his reporting this was a successful strike and that they were able to basically entomb the facility making it inoperable. They didn't have to destroy it. It's basically not useful anymore. So if that's true then that really would spell an end of US involvement. Now that being said for all of you who are around during the Iraq war you don't really need a real reason to go and attack someone. And then during the Iraq war the US government was claiming that there were weapons of mass destruction in Iraq.

通过摧毁这些入口，意味着没有人能够进出这个设施，从而有效地终止了其功能。根据他的报道，这是一次成功的打击，他们基本上将设施封住，使其无法运作。他们并没有完全摧毁它，但此设施基本上已经不再有用。如果这是真的，那确实会标志着美国的介入结束。不过，话虽如此，对于那些经历过伊拉克战争的人来说，你并不需要真正的理由去攻击某人。在伊拉克战争期间，美国政府声称伊拉克拥有大规模杀伤性武器。

So they launched the ground invasion and after turning the country apart we're not able to find weapons of mass destruction at all. It was all fake. Some people, interest groups wanted to attack Iraq and found a reason. So how this is going to develop it's all going to be about the political interests involved. And of course if you're thinking from the Iranian standpoint you just got bombed. There's nothing you can do about it. The only way you're going to feel safe is if you have nuclear weapons and that goes the same for any other country out there. So this is in my best view not over but in remission.

他们发动了地面入侵，但在搞得国家四分五裂之后，却完全找不到大规模杀伤性武器。这一切都是假的。一些人或利益集团想攻击伊拉克，于是找了个理由。因此，事态如何发展，将完全取决于所涉的政治利益。当然，如果从伊朗的角度来看，你刚刚被轰炸，却无能为力。唯一能让你感到安全的方法就是拥有核武器，这对其他任何国家来说也是一样的。因此，在我看来，这件事并没有结束，只是暂时搁置。

Okay. So that would normally be a huge story but I think everyone forgot about it. Stock market of course opened lower on Monday and then began to surge with the idea that hey this conflict is over. You know the US won and we can all go back to doing whatever we were doing before in the oil markets responded accordingly with oil prices tanking, taking on all that geopolitical premium. Now looking at the data from this past week we got you know PMI data that was okay showing some degree of expansion it was above 50 but I think what kind of stood out to me the past week was that personal incomes declined and that's not something that we see very frequently.

好吧，这本来会是一个大新闻，但我觉得大家都忘了。股市周一开盘下跌，然后随着“这场冲突结束了”的消息开始飙升。你知道，美国赢了，我们都可以回去继续原来在做的事情。油市也相应反应，油价暴跌，消除了所有的地缘政治溢价。现在来看过去一周的数据，我们看到PMI（采购经理指数）数据还不错，显示了一定程度的扩张，超过了50。但让我觉得过去一周比较显眼的是，个人收入有所下降，而这不是我们经常看到的情况。

That decline seems to be in large part due to a decline in transfer payments like social security. It also seemed like the US consumers were spending a little bit although based on consumer sentiment data and as to sentiment is okay and inflation expectations have come down a lot and so if you are a central bank that's worried about inflation expectations getting out of control due to the tariffs which we've been talking about that's a great comfort the consumers are no longer as scared of tariff based inflation as they've been in the past. Now looking at the employment front and what's really I think what we've been talking about for the past is that this continuing claims number that is the stock of unemployed people trying to find a job continues to increase.

这种下降在很大程度上似乎是由于社保等转移支付的减少。尽管根据消费者信心数据来看，美国的消费者还是有一点消费，不过总体上信心还算可以，而且通胀预期也大幅下降。因此，如果你是一个担心因为我们一直在讨论的关税而导致通胀预期失控的中央银行，这算是一个好消息，因为消费者不再像以前那样害怕关税导致的通胀了。现在看看就业方面，我们一直在讨论的一个关键点是，持续申请失业救济的人数，也就是在找工作的失业人员的总数，仍在增加。

What that's telling you is that people once they lose their job it's really hard to get back into the labor market under the sign that the labor market is softening and I think it would foretell further increases in the unemployment rate so that's something to look out for. Now looking at the markets as we've noted before S&P 500 NASDAQ all at all time highs. If you look at a chart over the past six months it's really remarkable it looks like we tumble in April and after liberation day but then totally surged and now we're at all time highs and yeah it's I find it to be confusing but other people have other views of course we have people talking about you know the fiscal deficit or let's say multiple expansion prospective rate cuts stuff like that AI trade of course is back and VD at all time highs so and of course volatility is lower as well pushing people investors were sensitive to volatility back into the market but yeah that seems to be happening and secondly what really caught my attention the past week was of course the dollar and dollar is just imploding.

这段话的意思是，一旦人们失业后，很难重新进入劳动力市场，这表明劳动力市场正在疲软。我认为这可能预示着失业率将进一步上升，因此这是需要注意的事情。 现在再看看市场，我们之前提到过，标普500指数和纳斯达克指数都处于历史最高点。如果查看过去六个月的走势图，会发现这非常值得注意。我们似乎在四月和解放日之后跌入低谷，但随后急剧上涨，现在处于历史新高。我觉得这有点令人困惑，但其他人有不同的看法。有人谈论财政赤字，或者说市盈率扩张、未来的降息等等。当然，AI交易回归了，VD创下历史新高，而且市场的波动性也降低了，这吸引了对波动性敏感的投资者重返市场。 其次，上周真正引起我注意的是美元的问题，美元正在急剧下跌。

Looking at the XY and S we're making multi-year lows and the decline is most notably against the euro. The euro is again surging against other currencies you know it really depends I think something worth thinking about is also the Japanese yen. Now inflation in Japan has been higher than expected and the market is thinking that hey maybe the Japan of Japan might want to high rates and at the same time the market continues a price and rate cuts in the US and so even as the interest rate difference show is whining the yen just kind of meanders back and forth even as the dollar is broadly weakening so I think that's you know something interesting to take note of.

查看XY和S的情况，我们正处于多年低点，尤其是相对于欧元的下跌最为显著。欧元再次对其他货币呈现出强劲走势。值得注意的问题包括日元。现在，日本的通胀高于预期，市场认为日本可能会考虑加息。同时，市场预计美国可能会降息。因此，即便利率差在缩小，日元在美元普遍走弱的情况下，依然在波动。我认为这值得我们关注。

Okay so now let's talk about our second segment that is of course the chair shadow fed chair. So this past week we had some interesting communication from President Trump in two press conferences on Friday he actually said this. The only problem we have is we have a Fed guy that doesn't understand what's happening and it would be great if it lower the rate because we'd be able to borrow a lot cheaper. Are you considering for the federal reserve then and are you speeding up that process I think Secretary? Oh he's terrible he's terrible. I mean I have a list of things were like 38 on the list we pay you know Cameroon and different places of paying the same as us because you know you have somebody sets a rate at 4% or 4.5% it's hard to go out and say we should be paying 1% when you have your so-called experts doing it and the sad part is you know as per the question that you asked about tariffs we've had the tariffs and we have less inflation than we had before.

好的，现在让我们来谈谈我们的第二个话题，那就是影子美联储主席。上周，我们从特朗普总统的两场新闻发布会上听到了一些有趣的交流。周五，他实际上这样说：我们唯一的问题就是，我们有一个联储的人不明白发生了什么，如果能降低利率就好了，因为这样我们就能以更低的成本借款。 那么，你是否在考虑对联邦储备采取措施，并加速这一过程呢？我认为部长？哦，他太糟糕了，他太糟糕了。我有一个清单，里面有38个项目，比如我们支付的费用和喀麦隆等地方一样高，因为当有人把利率定在4%或4.5%时，很难出去说我们应该支付1%。而悲哀的是，正如您提到的关于关税的问题，我们加了关税，但我们的通胀反而比以前低。

What we have is a hell of a lot more money a hell of a lot more income and we shouldn't be paying a rate like that. In other words when we pay a rate I'll say each point is the equivalent of 300 billion dollars. So if we had it down three points because I think we should be at one you have Switzerland is at 0.25 other words 25% of 1% and they're the number one right now but we should be the number one and soon you're going to have I believe I think you're going to have where the people will pay the bill you know we'll pay like we had a few years ago where you put up money you loan money and I mean you actually instead of paying you get paid I love that.

我们现在拥有的财富和收入都非常多，因此我们不应该支付这样的利率。换句话说，每个百分点相当于3000亿美元。如果利率降低三个百分点，因为我认为我们应该处于1%的水平。比如瑞士的利率是0.25%，也就是1%的四分之一，而他们目前排在第一位。但我们应该成为第一，不久之后，我相信可能会出现这样的情况：人们将承担账单，就像几年前一样，你把钱存入银行，贷款出去，实际上你不是支付利息，而是能够获得利息，我非常喜欢这种方式。

So basically as we all know present Trump is unhappy with Sherpowell and has been talking about neaming a successor to Powell earlier basically reviving the shadow fed idea floated by Secretary Besen before he was appointed. So the thinking of this is that the market is a forward looking so the market pays attention to what the Fed chair is guiding towards and we'll price that in. So Sherpowell's term ends next May so what if we were to point the next Fed chair a little bit earlier say maybe in August September October something like that and if the market already knows who the new Fed chairs and that new Fed chair goes around making tremendous dovish noises saying that you know he's going to cut big Lee then maybe the market will begin to ignore Sherpowell and price in the new interest rate path as sketched out by the new Fed chair and so in a sense Trump would have monetary well the new Fed chair would have more control monetary policy a little bit earlier so that things to be the thinking.

基本上，我们都知道特朗普总统对现任美联储主席鲍威尔（Sherpowell）不太满意，并且一直在讨论提前任命鲍威尔的继任者，这实际上是重提了贝森（Besen）部长在他的任命之前提出的替代美联储主席的想法。考虑的出发点是，市场通常具有前瞻性，因此市场会关注美联储主席对未来政策的指引并据此调整策略。鲍威尔的任期将于明年五月结束，所以如果我们在稍早的一段时间比如八月、九月或十月就任命下一任美联储主席，而新主席公开表态说会进行大幅降息，那么市场可能会开始忽视鲍威尔的政策动向，而转向根据新美联储主席的计划调节利率路径。因此，特朗普实际上可以通过新美联储主席更早地影响货币政策，这就是背后的逻辑。

Now we were all wondering just what is Trump exactly what is his idea interest rate path and now he's told you he thinks that interest rates should be 1% and if you listen to the end of his segment it seems like he's also you know kind of pushing for negative interest rates whereas you know you borrow money and someone pays you so I don't think that's going to happen but he would like rates to be cut by 300 basis points all the way down from 4% to 1% and his justification is in part known inflation and of course the fiscal deficit now I think we all can see that President Trump doesn't really care about the fiscal deficit but there are people in the political realm who do we have a lot of people republicans in Congress who care about we have Elon Musk who cares about it so there is a constituency who cares about it and it seems like he's trying to build support from that constituency to further bully the Fed.

现在我们都在好奇特朗普的想法，他到底如何看待利率路径。他已经表示，他认为利率应该是1%。如果你听到他发言的最后部分，会发现他似乎还提到了负利率，也就是说借钱的时候有人给你付钱。我觉得这种情况不太可能发生，但他希望利率能从4%降到1%，也就是降低300个基点。他部分理由是当前已知的通胀，以及财政赤字。当然，我们都能看出特朗普其实并不太关心财政赤字，但是在政治领域中，确实有一些人关心这个问题。有很多国会里的共和党人关注这个问题，埃隆·马斯克也对此很关心。所以，有这样一个关心财政赤字的人群，特朗普似乎正在试图争取这些人的支持，以此增加对美联储施加压力的筹码。

So who could he appoint as a little Fed chair we do have a few names so let's talk about what other potential names floated out and how I think likely they will be to be Fed chair. Now the name most commonly floated out of course is Kevin Walsh. Walsh was a governor at the Fed earlier and was one of the front-runners to be Fed chair after Yellen but of course was Paula was chosen instead. So Kevin Walsh is kind of an interesting character in that at his appointment people were pretty surprised that he got appointed because he's a lawyer by training and did not really have any obvious training in macroeconomics or monetary policy and over the coming years he continued to prove to everyone that he really did not have any grasp of monetary policy.

所以，他可能会任命谁来当小型美联储主席呢？我们手头有一些名字，不妨来聊聊有哪些潜在人选，以及我认为他们成为美联储主席的可能性如何。现在，最常被提到的名字当然是凯文·沃尔什。沃尔什曾是美联储的一位理事，并且是耶伦卸任后美联储主席的热门人选之一，但最终当然是保拉被选中了。沃尔什是一个相当有趣的人物，因为当初他被任命时，很多人感到惊讶，因为他是法律专业出身，并没有明显的宏观经济学或货币政策方面的培训。在接下来的几年里，他继续向大家证明他确实对货币政策没有任何掌握。

He was basically consistently been very hawkish all throughout his career even complaining about wanting to hike rates on the eve of the great financial crisis in 2008. His communications over the past years really shows that he really hasn't changed that much so that tells me that he's probably not the guy for the job and I don't really understand why he's even mentioned that all. Once it does this guy is a hawk and it just doesn't mix. One potential reason could be that he just kind of wants to have someone in stark contrast for TV reasons just to keep the apprentice style tournament going but I don't really think this guy has any chance of being Fed chair. It just doesn't make sense.

他基本上在整个职业生涯中一直持强硬立场，甚至在2008年金融危机前夕抱怨想要加息。他这些年的言论显示，他几乎没有太大改变，这让我觉得他可能不适合这个职位，我也不明白为什么他还被提及。这个人一直是个"鹰派"，这很不合适。有一种可能是他只是想在电视上形成鲜明对比，以保持类似"学徒"式的竞争，但我真的不认为这个人有机会成为美联储主席。这并不合理。

Only of course that's been floated is Sagatory Bessent. From people who are plugged in they tell me that Sagatory Bessent is probably going to have the option of being Fed chair if he wants. Now Bessent obviously was a former hedge fund manager and by all counts is doing a really good job at the U.S. Treasury. The question is why would Secretary of Bessent want to give up being a Treasury Secretary to become Fed chair? Is Fed chair a better job or let's listen to President Trump himself? I think it's the greatest job in government. You show up to the office once a month and you say let's see, Philippa Cooke. And everybody talks about you like you regard all what will you do.

当然，最近被提到的是萨加托里·贝森特。据一些内部人士告诉我，萨加托里·贝森特可能会有机会担任美联储主席的职位，如果他愿意的话。目前，贝森特显然曾是对冲基金经理，并且在美国财政部的表现非常出色。但问题是，为什么贝森特部长会放弃财政部长的职位去当美联储主席呢？美联储主席的工作更好吗？让我们来看看特朗普总统怎么说的吧。他认为这是政府中最好的工作，因为你每个月只需要去办公室一次，然后说，好吧，让我们看看接下来怎么做。大家都在讨论你，会非常看重你的一举一动。

So basically under Trump you Fed chair is you're just going to be doing one thing right figuring out how to cut rates. Now why would the Secretary of Treasury give that position up for just to be basically a lackey? As Secretary of Treasury Bessent is overseeing over 100,000 people. He has power over the IRS and all sorts of other stuff. He's flying around the world and the ocean is trading trade with world leaders. He's cracking down on fentanyl by sanctioning payments of Mexican cartels. And of course if he wants to he can toggle with the composition of issuance and try to influence monetary policy indirectly, which President Trump has also suggested as well.

所以，基本上在特朗普执政期间，如果你是美联储主席，你的主要任务就是想办法降息。那为什么财政部长会愿意放弃自己的职位，仅仅去做一个随从呢？作为财政部长，Bessent负责管理超过10万名员工，拥有对国税局及其他许多事务的掌控权。他飞往世界各国，与各国领导人协商贸易。他通过对墨西哥贩毒集团的制裁来打击芬太尼的流通。当然，如果他愿意，他也可以调整债务发行的结构，尝试间接影响货币政策，特朗普总统也提出过这样的建议。

So in this era, it seems really obvious to me that being's treasury secretary is much more influential and much more interesting than just flipping a coin and toggling rates. So there's really no reason for him to have that. Have that to want to leave and be that. So I don't think that's going to be him. Now another potential name fold out if Kevin has it. Now Kevin has it is your traditional PhD economist, but he's also someone who has a very strong relationship with Trump. He was part of the Trump administration. The first term holding the chair, title of chair of the Council of Economic Advisors, which is basically let's say the White House's policy think tank.

在这个时代，我认为担任财政部长的职位要比简单地抛硬币、调整利率更有影响力，也更有趣。所以，他没有理由要放弃这个职务或想要离开。因此，我觉得他不会是那个选择离开的人。现在，还有一个潜在的名字是凯文。如果凯文出任这个职位，他是一个传统的拥有博士学位的经济学家，但他也和特朗普关系密切。他曾在特朗普政府的第一任期中担任经济顾问委员会主席，这是相当于白宫的政策智库的职位。

And today he's holding the chair position chair of the National Economic Council, which is a similar policy organization within the White House but with a bigger portfolio. So he's basically been the president's economist for a decade and someone who has shown over and over again to have the person's trust. Now would he want to move from the NEC to Fed Chair? Absolutely. Fed Chair is a huge, unequivocal upgrade over the NEC. So I think that's probably going to be the most likely outcome is that President Trump is going to pick this loyalist guy who's basically his economist.

今天，他担任国家经济委员会的主席，该委员会是白宫内的一个类似政策组织，但负责的事务更多。因此，他实际上在过去十年间一直是总统的经济顾问，并多次证明得到了总统的信任。现在，他是否想从国家经济委员会转任美联储主席？绝对想。美联储主席的职位比国家经济委员会主席提升得多。所以，我认为最有可能的结果是，特朗普总统会选择这位忠诚的人担任美联储主席，因为他基本上就是总统的经济顾问。

Now can he get him through the Senate? I don't know. I mean Kevin has it definitely has the resume, C.E.A. Chair, NEC Chair. Looks good on paper. There will be definitely concerns about whether or not he'll be Arthur Burns or something like that. But I imagine there could be enough doubt and the president has enough control over the Senate to make that go through.

现在他能让他通过参议院的审查吗？我不确定。我是说，凯文的履历绝对是不错的，曾担任C.E.A.（经济顾问委员会）主席和NEC（国家经济委员会）主席。从书面资料来看，他条件很好。但人们肯定会担心他是否会成为像亚瑟·伯恩斯那样的人物。不过，我想可能会有足够的怀疑，而总统对参议院有足够的控制力，让这一过程通过。

So I think this is very much the frontrunner for being the new Fed Chair. Now other possibilities of course is currently Governor Waller. Governor Waller was a Trump appointee and he's notable for being the person right now. One of two people right now calling for rate cuts as soon as July. Governor Waller has a really good record at the Fed. He was correct in calling for a soft landing for example, saying that we could hike rates, but rather than have unemployment go up, we would just have the amount of jobs outstanding decline. We could have a soft landing.

我认为他非常有可能成为新的美联储主席。目前另一个可能的人选是现任美联储理事沃勒。沃勒是由特朗普任命的，他目前的观点很引人注目，因为他是现在仅有的主张尽早在7月就进行降息的两个人之一。沃勒在美联储的表现相当不错。他曾成功预言美国经济可以实现“软着陆”。他认为，即使加息，也不会导致失业率上升，而只是减少职位空缺的数量，从而实现经济的“软着陆”。

And as we're at the moment he's calling for inflation to be transitory because tariffs are not a change in the rate of change of the price level. That's inflation, but really a one-time price shock which by-eaccounts is what standard economic thinking would dictate and also is paying attention to the deterioration in labor market. So the possession he's taking for rate cuts in July is totally reasonable. And of course I'm sure it doesn't hurt that it helps this chance of Fed Chair. Now Waller has also been in his communications a bit more sympathetic to the MAGA movement talking about the distrust of institutions and so forth.

目前，他声称通胀是暂时的，因为关税并未导致物价水平变化的速率发生变化。这确实是一种通胀，但更像是一次性的价格冲击，这符合标准经济学的思维方式。此外，他还注意到了劳动力市场的恶化。因此，他在7月降息方面的立场是合理的。当然，这也可能对他继续担任美联储主席有帮助。此外，沃勒在沟通中也对MAGA运动表现出了更多的同情，谈到了对机构的不信任等话题。

So he's definitely angling for this job. He'd make good Fed Chair, but what he lacks is a close relationship with the person Trump and of course there are people in the MAG world who remember that he voted for the 50 basis point cut right before the election last year. And I think that's a bad mark on his CV. So I think he'd make a good Fed Chair, but not front runner in my view. Now one other thing that I'll note is that monetary policy is going to become more politicized. That seems to be in line with the era, right?

所以他肯定在争取这个职位。他会是一个不错的美联储主席，但他缺乏与特朗普的密切关系。当然，在"让美国再次伟大"的圈子里，有些人还记得他在去年大选前投票支持降息50个基点。我认为这对他的简历是个不利的影响。因此，在我看来，他会是个不错的美联储主席，但不是最有希望的人选。我要指出的另一件事是，货币政策将变得更加政治化。这似乎符合当前时代的特点，不是吗？

Everything is changing. Now what really struck my eye over the past couple of weeks was Governor Bowman. Now Vice Chair of Supervision Bowman actually saying that we should be cutting in July. This really stands out because Bowman has been the most hawkish governor over the past few years. When everyone else was talking about cutting, cutting, cutting, she was like, you know, I'm going to reserve the right to hike. And now she's doing an about face and saying that we should cut in July, which is a very out of the character and also follows her recent promotion to Vice Chair.

一切都在改变。最近几周让我印象最深的是鲍曼州长。现在担任监督副主席的鲍曼实际上表示，我们应该在七月份降息。这件事特别引人注目，因为在过去几年里，鲍曼一直是最鹰派的州长。当其他人都在谈论降息时，她却坚持说，她保留加息的权利。而现在，她突然转变立场，表示我们应该在七月份降息，这与她过去的立场大相径庭，而且这一变化也恰逢她最近晋升为副主席。

So that tells me this is a largely political decision, not to say that it's indefensible as a monetary policy idea, but that it's just really out of character for her. So yes, we are heading into a world that the Fed will be more politicized. On top of that, I'd also add that President Trump is probably going to have the chance to remake the composition of the Board of Governors next year. Now Governor Krugler, her term is going to expire earlier in the year.

这告诉我，这主要是一个政治决策，并不是说作为货币政策的想法它是站不住脚的，而是这种决定真的很不像她的风格。所以，是的，我们正进入一个美联储将更加政治化的世界。除此之外，我还要补充说，特朗普总统明年可能有机会重新任命美联储理事会的成员。克鲁格勒理事，她的任期将在年初到期。

And when Powell's term expires this Fed chair, customarily, not always, but customarily, when you are Fed chair and your term ends, you resign your position on the Fed Board and do go do other stuff. And so President Trump could actually avoid another governor in his place. So overall, he could appoint two people next year. Now, it's still a minority, but that does give his people a big role in monetary policy.

当鲍威尔的任期结束时，通常来说（并非总是如此），作为美联储主席，你的任期结束后，会辞去在美联储董事会的职位，去做其他事情。因此，特朗普总统实际上可以避免在鲍威尔的位置上任命另一位理事。总体来说，他明年可以任命两个人。虽然这仍然是少数，但这确实让他的人在货币政策中拥有更大的发言权。

Now the overall impact of this, of course, it's going to be, I think, pretty chaotic. Remember not too long ago when President Trump was talking about firing the Fed chair and selling his own person, the markets really didn't like that. You had a dollar a weekend, you had Churchill Eudes rise and so forth. And that quote in the market sell off, classic emerging market stuff. But as I said then, and I say today, that reaction was unnecessary because sooner or later, person Trump is going to get a straight person.

现在这一切的总体影响，我认为，会相当混乱。还记得不久前特朗普总统谈论解雇美联储主席和推销自己的人选时，市场对此反应不佳。美元贬值，债券收益率上升等等。这导致了市场抛售，这是典型的新兴市场现象。但正如我当时所说的，我今天也想说，那种反应是没有必要的，因为特朗普迟早会找到合适的人选。

And it looks like it's going to be sooner. And this week I'll write about what I think would happen or how the market would react. So definitely interesting stuff to keep in mind.

看起来这会更早发生。本周我会写一些我对将会发生什么或市场会如何反应的看法。所以这绝对是值得记住的有趣内容。

We are seemingly becoming an emerging market. Again, this is a process. It's not a one-time event. But definitely the future will not look like the past.

我们似乎正在成为一个新兴市场。需要强调的是，这个过程不是一次性事件，而是一个逐步发展的过程。不过，可以肯定的是，未来将与过去有所不同。

All right. So that's what I prepared for today. Thanks so much to Nyan. And I'll talk to you guys next week.

好的。这就是我今天准备的内容。非常感谢Nyan。我下周再和你们聊。