Coatue Pt2. Open AI’s Kevin Weil Dives into All Things ChatGPT | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner
发布时间 2025-06-21 16:36:30 来源
You said today is the worst product from the model that you use today. Is the worst AI model that you'll ever use for the rest of your life? Kevin, so on this slide, in five years, as the ninth most valuable company in the world, OK, so $300 billion in enterprise value today is measured by the markets. They have it going to $1.6 trillion. I remember when you joined OpenAI and I asked you the question, can OpenAI get to a trillion dollars, right, in total value? And you said, that is, like, if I thought it was just a trillion dollars, I wouldn't be nearly as excited as I am about going to OpenAI. So when you just think about that. And by the way, less about market cap and.
你今天说这是你用过的模型中最差的产品。这是你这辈子会用的最差的AI模型吗？Kevin，在这张幻灯片上，五年后成为全球第九大公司，市值为3000亿美元，而市场预测它会增长到1.6万亿美元。我记得当你加入OpenAI时，我问过你一个问题：OpenAI能达到总值一万亿美元吗？你回答说，如果我认为OpenAI仅仅只会达到一万亿美元的话，我就不会对加入OpenAI感到如此兴奋了。所以，当你想到这一点的时候。顺便说一下，这里更少关心的是市值。
Right, right, right. You know, more about like the ambition and the opportunity and the impact of the market. Yeah. And so that's what I want you to do. Just blue sky for us today. How long have you been at OpenAI now? But a year. OK. So you're a year into this. A year in, do you think the opportunity is bigger than you thought when you started and walk? And why would you. Talk us through that a little bit. I think it's bigger for sure than I realized. I think it's been in SAMSAD the whole time. So I'm not sure that there's been a revelation over the past year, but it's certainly opened my eyes.
好的，好的，好的。你知道，是更多地关注野心、机会和市场影响。所以我希望你为我们大胆畅想一下。你在OpenAI工作多久了？大约一年。好吧，那么你已经工作一年了。经过这一年，你觉得机会比你刚开始预想的要大吗？为什么呢？跟我们谈谈吧。我觉得机会肯定比我意识到的更大。我认为这一切一直都在SAM的规划中，因此我不确定过去这一年是否有新的启示，但这确实让我大开眼界。
Right, right, right. I mean, for one, we have grown faster than anything I've ever seen. Yeah. And I thought I had seen fast growth when I was at Instagram, for example. And for those falling at home on slide 24 in the deck, they show the user growth. And we talked about it earlier, but it's just phenomenal. Yeah. So as we've grown, we're also deepening usage with the platform. People are using it more. So just from that perspective, we're I think bigger today than I would have imagined. Walked through the data. Slide on that also. And you said some comments on stage about, as people use it more than minutes, go up.
好的，好的，好的。首先，我们的增长速度比我见过的任何东西都要快。是的。我本以为在Instagram工作时已经见识过快速增长了。在幻灯片第24页，他们展示了用户增长情况。我们之前讨论过，这实在是惊人。因此，随着我们的壮大，用户对平台的使用也在加深。人们使用它的频率增加了。从这个角度来看，我们现在的规模已经超过了我的预期。看看数据。幻灯片上也有展示。你在台上提到了一些评论，说随着人们使用它的时间增加，使用分钟数也在上升。
Yeah. Well, I mean, we look at weakly active users. That's sort of the metric that we goal ourselves by from a growth perspective. Obviously, a lot of other things that we look at as well. But from a weakly active user, the reason we do that versus monthly is we're actually, you know, we don't want someone that just comes once a month, that doesn't, that means we're probably not adding all that much value in their life if they're coming once a month. And over time, I think it's going to be more natural for us to measure daily active users, because really if we're doing our job, then you're using chat GBT on a daily basis.
好的，我的意思是，我们关注每周活跃用户。这是我们从增长的角度设定目标的指标。当然，我们也会关注其他很多方面。之所以选择每周活跃用户而不是每月，是因为我们不想让用户只是每月来一次。如果他们一个月只来一次，说明我们可能没有在他们的生活中增加太多价值。随着时间的推移，我认为更自然的做法是衡量每日活跃用户。因为如果我们做得好的话，你将每天都在使用Chat GPT。
And hopefully multiple times per day, because it can help you multiple times per day with all the different things that you encounter in your life. There's sort of the, are you a monthly user, are you a weekly user, daily user, and then, you know, on a given day, how much time are you spending in the product? And you guys had a chart, your data not ours, but, but that showed that people were using chat GBT a whole lot more, you know, time in per day.
希望每天多次使用，因为它可以在你生活中遇到的各种事情上多次提供帮助。问题在于，你是每月使用一次，还是每周、每天使用一次，然后在某一天，你花多少时间在这个产品上？你们有一个图表，数据显示人们每天使用Chat GBT的时间要多得多。
Yeah. And that's awesome. That's super exciting. That just means that we're actually helping people solve problems and they're not just using it. You know, like you go back a couple years when, when it launched, it was really good at various sort of writing thing. If you're going to go copywriting, if you were going to, you know, have it summarize emails or things like that. And you look today and it's so much broader. It can help in so many other areas. People are uploading, you know, that actually my own son had a health thing.
是的，太棒了。这非常令人兴奋。这意味着我们确实在帮助人们解决问题，而不仅仅是他们在使用它。回想几年前刚推出的时候，它在写作方面非常出色，比如撰写文案，或者总结电子邮件等等。而现在它的功能变得更加广泛，可以在很多其他领域提供帮助。人们可以上传内容，我自己的儿子也遇到过健康问题。
Yeah. I had to have a minor surgery, which was not that big of a deal. At least it was not supposed to be that big of a deal. And, but there was a tiny chance that there was something more serious, you know, and so he has the surgery. He's eight. Like next day, he's playing a soccer game. He doesn't know any better. Yes. Yes. But then we're still waiting for like the biopsy of this thing to come back. Yes. And we end up getting a paper in the mail, letter in the mail that has a whole bunch of like complex medical stuff on it.
是啊。我必须做一个小手术，本来不是什么大不了的事。至少原本不应该是什么大问题。但是，有一点可能性会有更严重的情况，你知道的。所以他动了手术，他才八岁。第二天，他就去踢足球比赛了，不以为意。是的，是的。但我们还在等活检结果出来。最后我们收到了一封信，里面有一堆复杂的医学术语。
Right. Right. I'm like, you know, halfway educated. I couldn't make sense of it. I didn't know what it means. And I called the doctor and I couldn't get a hold of her. She was in a surgery, I think. Right. You know, she's busy. She's got a million things going on. And I'm looking at this and there's a bunch of like scary looking medical terms. Yeah. And so the first thing I do, of course, is take a picture of it. A couple of different chat Gbt. And say, hey, should I be worried about this? And it comes back immediately.
好的，好吧。我觉得自己也算是受过一定教育的人，但我实在搞不懂这些。我不知道这是什么意思。我打电话给医生，但联系不上她，她可能正在做手术。我理解的，她很忙，有很多事情要处理。我看着这一堆看上去很可怕的医学术语。于是，我第一反应就是拍下照片，发给不同的智能聊天助手，问它们：我需要担心这些吗？结果很快就有回复了。
No, you're fine. This is like completely benign. Don't worry about it. You're all good. But I actually wasn't able to get a hold of the doctor for 72 hours. Right. That would have been a really bad 72 hours. I mean, as a parent sitting there stressing about this. You know, I think you're describing, you know, as someone who's gone from once a day to 20 times a day, like you, you learn what it can do. You learn the kinds of things it can do. Like you can take a photo of an appliance and ask it how to set the clock or something.
不，你没事的。这完全是良性的，不用担心，你一切都好。不过，我确实有72小时没联系上医生。对吧？那72小时可能会很煎熬。作为一个父母，坐在那里为这事儿发愁真的挺折磨人的。你知道，我觉得你在描述的是，比如从每天一次增加到每天二十次的经历中，你学到了它能做什么，学到了它能做到的事情。比如你可以拍一张家电的照片，然后问它如何设置时钟之类的。
Yeah. And so you, you, you, one of the reasons I think it expands is people come to understand all the things it can do. Yeah. And all the kinds of prompts. You know, another one is like, like I used to do Google search, go to a web page, find a number, and then put that into a formula and multiply it on a calculator. It can just do all that. Right. Like you can see, right, go get this and run this. And now you can connect it to your email and your docs and your calendar.
是的，我认为这个技术不断发展的原因之一是人们开始了解它能够做到的各种事情。另一个例子是，我过去常常用谷歌搜索，访问网页，找到一个数字，然后把它放到公式里，在计算器上相乘。现在，它可以自动完成这些任务。而且你可以看到它可以获取信息和执行操作。现在你还可以将它连接到你的电子邮件、文档和日历。
And it can start to be useful in so many other ways. This, you know, what you used to have to go search through 20 docs for now, you can go just ask for answers. So it's just, it's so much more useful. And I totally agree the way to sort of understand it because it's also constantly evolving, right? The models get, yes. Step changes better every two or three months is you just start using it.
它可以在许多其他方面开始变得有用。你知道，以前你可能需要翻阅20份文档去寻找答案，而现在你只需直接询问。这让它变得更加实用。我完全赞同，通过使用来理解它是很重要的，因为它也在不断进化对吗？模型每两三个月都会有显著的改进。只要开始使用它，你就会明白。
You know, the, the, the number one advice I have for people when they like ask what they should do with chat GPDs, just start using it because when you start using it for things and you take, you know, little, little tiny risks and try it for new things that you're not sure if it can do, you realize in most cases it can. Yeah. And then it just becomes more and more hopeful to you over time.
你知道吗，我给人们的首要建议是，如果他们问我应该如何使用ChatGPT，那就是开始使用它。因为当你开始用它做事情时，哪怕是尝试一些小小的风险或新的用法，你不确定它能否做到的事，大多数情况下你会发现它其实能做到。久而久之，它对你的帮助会越来越大。
And I think the numbers reflect that when you see, so you're running product, your goal is to drive engagement, drive utility, thrill your customers. So when, uh, talk to us about the things you're actively doing to take somebody from a monthly to a weekly, from a weekly to a daily, I'm sure a lot of this is happening organically as Bill describes, but I'm sure you're pressing on the fly wheel.
我认为这一点从数字上可以体现出来。所以，当你在运行一个产品时，你的目标是提高用户参与度、增加产品实用性，让客户感到兴奋。那么，跟我们谈谈你正在积极做些什么，从而将用户从每月使用提升到每周使用，再从每周使用提升到每天使用。我相信很多这样的转变像Bill所说的那样是自然发生的，但我肯定你也在推动这一进程。
And then if we're at a billion monthlies today, like how do you set a measure for success for you and your team, right? Like do you have a goal, a big, a big audacious goal? I want to get to two billion in three years. Like, like how are you thinking about that? Yeah. We do less sort of mechanical things of how do I get a monthly to a, we, it's more like we have an incredible research team, just the absolutely world class research team that's constantly iterating on models, making the models that suddenly able to do things that computers have never been able to do before in the history of computers.
然后，如果我们现在每月已经达到十亿用户，那么你和你的团队如何设定成功的标准呢？你们有没有一个大的、远大的目标？比如说，想在三年内达到二十亿用户。对此，你们是怎么考虑的呢？我们的策略并不是单纯地追求用户增长，而是更多地依赖于我们出色的研究团队。这个团队可以说是世界一流的，不断地迭代模型，使这些模型具备计算机历史上前所未有的能力。
And so we think a lot more about how do we, how do we stay really tight with the research team? Because it's just this incredible nucleus of like creativity and discovery. And how do we stay really close to them so that we can constantly be building products just on the edge of what the models can do? Right. As our feeling is, if we're building just on the edge of what models can do, then we suddenly have this product that can do things that no one's ever seen a product do before.
因此，我们非常重视如何与研究团队保持紧密联系，因为他们是创造力和发现的核心。那么，我们如何与他们保持密切关系，以便不断开发出能够接近模型极限的产品呢？我们的想法是，如果我们总是站在模型能力的边缘来开发产品，那我们可能会打造出一种以前从未见过的新产品。
And even if it's not perfect, right when it starts, because we tend to, we believe in iterative deployment, we release early, we release often like better to, better to make lots of small mistakes. And you know, we kind of collectively as society, I like understand how, how, what AI is good at, what is bad at, how we work through it. We'd rather do that.
即使一开始的时候并不完美，因为我们倾向于相信迭代发布，我们提倡早期发布，频繁发布，宁愿犯很多小错误。而且，我们作为一个社会整体，会逐渐理解人工智能擅长什么，不擅长什么，以及我们如何与其协作。我们更愿意这样做。
And if you, if you build a product that can do amazing things, even if it's only 70% you know, write it at, at, at that thing in two or three months, the next model is going to come along. And it's going to be 95% good at that thing. And all of a sudden, you know, you've, you've got something great, but, but people, we've sort of brought everybody along with us and, and learn from them at the same time, like learn from the way there's, the way that they're using it.
如果你开发了一款能完成惊人任务的产品，即使它目前只有70%的准确度，在两三个月内，下一个版本就会出现，并在那个任务上达到95%的准确度。突然之间，你就拥有了一件很棒的东西。不过，我们也将所有人一同带到了这个进步中，并在这个过程中从他们的使用方式中学到了很多。
So there's a, I think the, the thing that we've really tried to get right, and we're not perfect at this, but I think we're a lot better than we used to be, is the, the really tight loop between research and product. Yes. Because when we're, when we have that loop right, and we're, we're solving products, the problems that people have, feedback goes back to research, the research team goes, Oh, you, oh, it can't do that very well. We can fix that.
我们一直努力想做好的一件事，就是在研究和产品之间建立一个非常紧密的循环。虽然我们还不完美，但相比以前已经有了很大的进步。当这个循环运转良好时，我们能够解决人们面临的问题，反馈会传递回研究团队，团队就会意识到：“哦，这个功能不太好，我们可以改进它。”
Right. And then the product gets better. And we have that, like, that's when magic happens. You said something prophetic on stage today, and simple, but it really caught me. You said, you said today is the worst product from the model that you use today. The model that you use today is the worst AI model that you'll ever use for the rest of your life. Yeah. Which is really, that's a, it's a simple thing. And it's really kind of obviously true when you think about it. But it just changes the way you think about building products. Because I think it, if you think about it the right way, it makes you much more open to building products that only kind of work. Whether you're us building chat GPT and other products or whether you're an enterprise, you know, building some internal tool or because if the model only, if the model can kind of do it, then it's going to be great at it in a few months.
好的，然后产品会有所改进，我们拥有的就是这样，这时候魔法就发生了。你今天在台上说了一些很有预见性的话，简单但很吸引我。你说今天所用的模型生成的产品是最差的产品。也就是说，你今天使用的模型是你人生中用过的最差的AI模型。这真是个简单的道理，仔细思考一下就显得很显然。然而，它改变了我们对产品开发的思考方式。我认为，如果用正确的方式去思考，它会让你更加开放去开发那些“有点儿管用”的产品。无论我们是在开发ChatGPT和其他产品，还是企业在开发某些内部工具，因为如果模型现在“有点儿能行”，那么在几个月后它会变得非常出色。
What things are you most excited about that are on the horizon? I'm, I'm really excited about the, the, in order for chat GPT to be truly useful, you need to go from it just answering questions that you have to it actually doing things for you in the real world to like, you know, ideally even proactively to understand the things that you're going to need to do and help you do or you know, suggest them queue up a bunch of actions for you before you even get there. And so why we've been really focused on adding things like connections into Google Docs and, you know, the products and services that you use every day. We've been really focused on personalization and memory so that the, you know, chat GPT gets to know you and what your preferences are, how you like to interact with it.
你对未来有什么让你感到兴奋的事情？我非常兴奋的是，为了让ChatGPT真正有用，它需要从仅仅回答你的问题，发展到能够在现实世界中为你做事情，甚至可以说是主动地理解你需要做的事情并帮助你完成，或者提前建议并为你准备好一系列的操作。因此，我们非常专注于添加与Google文档等日常使用的产品和服务的连接。我们一直专注于个性化和记忆功能，以便ChatGPT能够更好地了解你、你的偏好以及你喜欢与其互动的方式。
In my case, I've like made sure that it knows about my wife and what she does, you know, she's a seed investor. My kids, how old they are because then when I ask it, you know, hey, we have some free time, what should we go do or we're going to go on this trip, it doesn't just recommend random hotels, it recommends hotels that are that are great for my family. Yeah, yeah, yeah. And then, you know, that kind of thing, each one is small, but it adds up. Right. And especially if you think about getting proactive and, and, you know, really getting to know you and helping with something that is going to, you're going to realize you need to do four hours for now, personalization is going to be a big deal. No doubt.
在我的情况下，我会确保它了解我的妻子和她的职业，比如她是个种子投资人。还有我的孩子们多大了，因为这样当我询问它，比如我们有空闲时间可以做什么，或者我们要去旅行时，它不会只是随便推荐一些酒店，而是会推荐对我们家庭很合适的酒店。是的，是的，这种事情虽然每一件都很小，但积少成多。对吧。特别是如果你考虑到它变得主动，就是真正了解你并帮助你解决一些问题，比如你意识到你需要在四个小时后做的事情，那么个性化将会变得非常重要。毫无疑问。
One quick question on the, on the kind of interactivity between different apps, there was some kerfuffle last week, I think Salesforce changed their terms of service in a way that would make it more difficult for other people to, to build models. How do you, how do you think that's going to play? Do you think people will put up walls or not, you know, will they be friendly with you, you know, running a widget on top of their app or not? Yeah, it's a good question. I think we're going to kind of feel our way there as a, as an industry as a society. It's one of the reasons that we believe so much in iterative deployment, where we release early release often, because AI is going to change just about everything.
上周关于不同应用程序之间的互动性问题我有个简单的问题。我记得上周有些争议，好像是Salesforce改变了他们的服务条款，使得其他人更难去构建模型。你怎么看待这个问题？你觉得人们会设置壁垒还是会友好相处呢，比如是否允许你在他们的应用程序上运行一个小插件？这是个好问题。我认为我们作为一个行业和社会，需要逐步探索和适应。这也是为什么我们非常重视迭代部署，尽早发布并频繁更新，因为人工智能将会改变几乎所有东西。
Yeah, it's going to change the way the web works, it's going to change the way we interact with services, it's going to, you know, and we don't want to do that unilaterally. We got to, you know, I think the way to do this smoothly is to kind of iterate together on it. That means total sense. And so, you know, we figure the more we release and put the stuff out in the world, the world, we all kind of get a sense, it's not like we know all the answers, right? We all kind of get a sense of where things are going and we can co-evolve in the right way.
是的，这将改变网络的运作方式，改变我们与服务的互动方式。我们不想单方面这样做。我认为，平稳地实现这些变化的方法是一起逐步改进。这完全有道理。因此，我们认为多发布一些东西到世界上去，大家就能获得一种感觉，不是说我们知道所有答案，而是我们都能感受到事情的发展方向，并以正确的方式共同进化。
I want you to have access to my contacts, my address, book my email, my text, my everything. And that's your data. You should be able to take it to whatever AI you want to take your data to. You're paying for that data. On those lines, Kevin, like one of the things that Bill and I have talked a lot about on this pod is our concern about kind of like regulatory capture, regulatory intervention. Folks who are alarmist and saying this is dangerous, we need to slow it down, we need you know, we need to really regulate it. And along those same lines, you know, like whether or not we're going to have open source models or every model is going to be closed.
我想让你能访问我的联系人、地址簿、邮件、短信，以及我的所有信息。这是属于你的数据。你应该能够把它带到任何你想与之合作的人工智能平台。你为这些数据付费。凯文，其中一件我和比尔在这个节目中多次讨论的事情就是我们对监管俘获和监管干预的担忧。有人危言耸听地说这很危险，认为我们需要减缓进度，真的需要加以监管。同样，我们也在讨论究竟是要开放源代码模型，还是所有模型都将封闭。
It seems to me that OpenAI has been on this journey over the course of let's call it the last year or two, where there was a belief, I think that OpenAI was in the, you know, go to Washington and regulate everything and kind of slow it down. And now I think it's like more clear the distinction that's being drawn. OpenAI is talking about launching an open source model here shortly. You seem to be in the camp of, you know, it's too early to regulate, get out there, accelerate, make sure that we distribute around the world and America's models are doing well. Is that a fair characterization, you think of, of where OpenAI is today?
在我看来，过去一两年中，OpenAI 似乎经历了一段旅程。起初，人们认为 OpenAI 想要去华盛顿推动法规，放慢一切的进程。然而，现在这种情况似乎更加明确地区分开来。OpenAI 正在讨论马上推出一个开源模型。你似乎倾向于认为，现在监管还为时过早，应该加快发展，并确保在全球范围内推广美国的模型。你认为这是否公平地描述了 OpenAI 目前的立场？
I think no matter what, it's important to be engaging, right? Like I said, this is a AI is going to change everything and we got to, I think we do better when we co-evolve. And so, and it's one of the reasons I was saying earlier, like people should just be trying the models. I think the same is true of our, of our lawmakers and folks like that. They should be just like getting to use AI. You start using it and you're like, oh, this isn't so scary. This is helpful. And you understand the nuances. You understand what it's good at, what it's not good at, right? You get a sense for how it's improving. I think that's really important. Like context really matters.
我觉得不管怎样，能够吸引和互动是很重要的，对吧？就像我之前说的，人工智能会彻底改变一切，我们需要一起进化。我之前也提到过，大家应该尝试使用这些模型。我认为这对我们的立法者和相关人员同样适用。他们也应该开始使用人工智能。你一旦开始使用它，就会发现其实它并不可怕，而是很有帮助的。你会逐渐理解其中的细微差别，了解它擅长和不擅长的地方，对其进步也会有一个大致的认识。我觉得这真的很重要，情境真的很关键。
I think it's, you know, that's one of the things we do when we're in DC as part of it, just like getting together and kind of giving people a sense of, here's where it is today and here's where we think it's going, right? So that people can make informed decisions. I don't know if you read Sam Altman's blog that was out this week called the gentle singularity. I would encourage everybody to actually go read it and it's this idea bill that it's not this scary thing that, you know, all of a sudden is going to show up, which I think a lot of people were thinking about with AGI that there was going to be this moment that everything was going to change.
我觉得，这是我们在华盛顿特区做的一件事情之一，就像聚在一起，让大家了解如今的现状以及我们认为未来的发展方向，这样人们才能做出明智的决策。不知道你有没有读过萨姆·奥特曼这周发表的博客文章，题为“温和奇点”。我建议大家去读一下，这个想法表明，所谓的人工通用智能（AGI）其实并不是一个突然出现的、令人害怕的事物，很多人以前可能会认为AGI会在某个时刻突然改变一切。
Sam's like, the world has already changed dramatically over the course of the last 24 months. But people aren't, you know, it's not changed that much about our daily lives. We just switched from using Google to get Tim Blue links to using chat, CBT to get answers to our questions. I'm now uploading my blood test information to chat, CBT because I wanted to tell me things that are useful about it. I still am at the point where I find those things pretty extraordinary. I can't believe that it can do these things and that I'm getting it for next to free.
萨姆说，在过去的24个月里，世界已经发生了巨大变化。不过，人们的日常生活实际上并没有改变那么多。我们只不过是从使用谷歌获取蓝色链接，转变为使用聊天程序（如Chat GPT）来获取问题答案。我现在将我的血液检测信息上传到聊天程序，因为我希望它能告诉我一些有用的信息。我依然觉得这些功能非常神奇，不敢相信它能做到这些，而且我几乎是免费享受这些服务。
But it has come. That level of profound change has come without that big of, like, you know, societal disruption. And, you know, I think we definitely are in the camp that it is way too early to obstruct American AI with, you know, useless regulations. Like, we don't even know what we should be regulating. It's like regulating the auto industry, right? Out of existence early. It took us 40 years to realize we needed seat belts and airbags and that we needed speed limits and things like that. And we'll need all those things for AI.
但现在这种情况出现了。这种深刻的变化出现了，而没有引起巨大的社会动荡。我认为，我们确实属于这样一类人：现在对美国的人工智能进行无谓的管制还为时过早。我们甚至还不知道应该监管什么。这就像是过早地对汽车行业进行监管一样。花了我们40年的时间才意识到我们需要安全带和安全气囊，还需要限速规定等。而对于人工智能，我们也将需要类似的措施。
But I think it's way too early to be doing that. So it's been a welcome, I think, development on our end to see, you know, open AI increasingly vocal about the need to make sure that, you know, we stay open and we stay. Kevin, one thing you, and I know you didn't give any specifics, but I think you had a question from the audience about the hardware device. And you did share some philosophical thoughts. Good. I think the audience would be thrilled to hear what you said earlier. This is about the acquisition of Johnny Ives, you know, business and what you guys intend to do in hardware.
我认为现在做那些事情还为时过早。所以，从我们的角度来看，看到OpenAI越来越多地表达需要确保我们保持开放的观点，这是一种受欢迎的发展。凯文，有一件事，你虽然没有给出具体细节，但我想你当时收到了观众关于硬件设备的提问。你分享了一些哲学上的想法，很好。我想观众们会很高兴听到你之前说的那些。这是关于你们收购Johnny Ives的业务，以及你们在硬件方面打算做什么。
Yeah. Oh, I just said, and I think this is true of hardware as it is of software, just that AI is going to change everything about the way that we do our jobs, the way that we, you know, get our, get stuff done on our personal lives. And I think basically every product, service, device, et cetera, that we use will be, will need to be reinvented. Yes. And that doesn't mean that the incumbents can't reinvent it. I think sometimes they will, right. But I don't, I doubt in every case they will certainly history doesn't tell us that that would be true. And so I think that means there's a huge opportunity for, for reinvention.
是的。我刚才提到，我认为无论是硬件还是软件，人工智能都将彻底改变我们工作的方式以及我们在个人生活中处理事情的方式。我认为我们使用的几乎每一种产品、服务、设备等都需要被重新发明。这并不意味着现有的公司不能进行重新发明，我觉得有时候他们会做到这一点。但是，我对他们能在每一个案例中都成功持怀疑态度，毕竟历史并没有告诉我们他们会一直成功。因此，我认为这就意味着存在巨大的重新发明的机会。
And that's, you know, that's an opportunity for us in places where we think we can play a role, we, where we think we have a perspective, we'll go compete. It also means great opportunities for startups. Yes. And by the way, I do think it means good opportunities for incumbents if they can move quickly and sort of overcome the, the innovators dilemma. That's a really hard thing to do. No doubt. So I just think if you look at the, the products that you spend your time in on a daily basis, and compare it to, you know, five years from now, I think they're going to be dramatic.
这就是说，在我们认为可以发挥作用的地方，这是一个机会。我们将积极参与竞争。这也为初创公司提供了很好的机会。而且，顺便说一句，我确实认为这对传统企业也是一个好机会，只要他们能够迅速行动并克服创新者的两难困境，这确实是个艰难的挑战。毫无疑问，我只是认为如果你看看你每天使用的产品，并将其与五年后的情况进行比较，我认为会有巨大的变化。
Is there any, are you allowed to share any time window where we might find out more? You'll have to find out. Okay. You know, we, we had to do a fly by today. We're going to have you come on the pod and we'll do a full blown podcast together. So we're here celebrating the 10th anniversary of East meets West. Yep. We were saying earlier, it's an event that we all look forward to go to coming to. I'm going to, I'm going to ask you this final question, kind of big picture. They forecasted out five years. Right.
能告知我们什么时候能了解更多信息吗？你能透露时间吗？你得自己去找答案。好的。你知道的，今天我们只是匆匆聊了一下。以后我们会邀请你参加我们的播客节目，一起做一个完整的播客。所以这次我们是来庆祝“东西相遇”十周年的。是的，我们之前就说过，这是一个我们一直期待参与的活动。最后，我想问你一个问题，有点宏观。他们已经预测了五年的发展情况。
Like what's possible for, for open AI? Skip the time window, whether it's three years or five years or seven years. What's your degree of confidence that given the value that open AI and chat GPT is delivering into the world and we haven't even got into really enterprise and everything you're doing with enterprise, you just announced a big deal with the government, the defense department, etc. What's your level of confidence that you guys will reach a hundred billion of revenue in the future and kind of be that, you know, AI defining company because at a hundred billion of revenue, it seems to me that this company could be on a path to being the most valuable company in the world, right? Five to ten trillion dollar business in the fullness of time, which frankly would not surprise me for the winner in the age of AI, right? The winner and consumer and a big company and enterprise.
对于OpenAI来说，未来可能会实现什么？跳出时间限制，无论是三年、五年还是七年。考虑到OpenAI和ChatGPT正在为世界带来的价值，您有多大信心认为你们能够在未来实现一千亿美元的收入，并成为那种定义AI的公司？因为我觉得，一旦达到一千亿美元的收入，这家公司可能会走上成为全球最有价值公司的道路，对吧？最终可能成为一个五万亿到十万亿美元的企业，说实话，对于AI时代的赢家，也就是在消费者、大公司和企业市场中的赢家，这并不会让我感到惊讶。
But now you've been here a year, right? You joined something that you thought was going to be the biggest thing of your career. You've been at extraordinary, large and successful companies. What's your level of confidence? Okay. I think the opportunity is all there in front of us. I said like three times now how I think AI is going to change everything. Everything. And the path is there and it's up to us to execute.
但是现在你在这里已经一年了，对吧？你加入了一个你认为将会成为你职业生涯中最大成就的项目。你曾在一些规模庞大且非常成功的公司工作过。你现在的信心如何？好的。我觉得机会就在我们面前。我已经说过三次，我认为人工智能将改变一切，一切。道路已经在那里，现在就靠我们去执行了。
Yeah. It's why, I mean, this place, opening AI moves faster than any company I've ever worked at in my life. Wow. And I thought I had worked at places that move pretty fast. That's a big Twitter and Instagram. Yeah. That's a big short name. Nothing compares. I think it's, you know, we have amazing people on the team. We really try and push decision-making and responsibility down into the teams. I think in an AI world, you need to do that because the IMLs are so new. You don't top down no all of the capabilities. You see them kind of coming through the mist and we're better at finding all of the opportunities when we have a lot of smart people thinking about what they can do with the model in their area.
是的，这就是为什么我说，这个地方，开放AI的运作速度比我生命中任何工作过的公司都要快。哇。而我原以为我已经在那些运作速度非常快的公司工作过了，比如Twitter和Instagram。但是没有什么可以相比。我认为，我们团队拥有优秀的人才。我们非常注重把决策权和责任下放到各个团队中。我觉得在AI领域，这种做法是必要的，因为I/ML（机器学习）太新了，你无法从上到下了解所有的能力。我们通过这种方式可以更好地从迷雾中看到它们，并且当我们有许多聪明的人在思考如何在各自领域利用模型时，我们更能发现所有的机会。
Yeah. Yeah. And did it, by the way, publicly. It's why we release early and often. We try and get it in people's hands because then they also get a chance to figure out what the models can be. So I have a lot of confidence in us. We got to execute. Yeah. Like we've got to, we've got to be on top of our game because we have a very serious set of competitors and that's real. But, but man, I like, all right. It's also like, I just feel good.
是的，是的，而且我们是公开执行的。这就是为什么我们早早发布并频繁更新。我们努力让产品尽快到达用户手中，因为这样他们也能有机会了解模型的潜力。所以我对我们很有信心。我们必须要执行到位。是的，我们必须全力以赴，因为我们有一群非常强劲的竞争对手，这是现实。但，伙计，我也感觉很好。
Like when you look at this team, you Sarah, Fiji, Greg Brockman, Sam, etc. It's such, even though the company's small bill, it's an extraordinarily deep bench of talented people who've done this in other places. Not only does it come down to execution as investor. Like I of course want them to succeed as an investor. But in terms of defining the company that's going to do the right things in this moment, I feel good to have this company in the lead because, you know, these are great people that I think are going to do the right things.
当你看到这个团队时，比如你、Sarah、Fiji、Greg Brockman、Sam 等人。即使公司规模不大，这支团队也非常强大，成员们在其他地方已经积累了丰富的经验和才华。作为投资者，我当然希望他们取得成功。不仅仅是执行力的问题，从公司在这个时刻做正确事情的角度来看，我对这家公司充满信心，因为我相信这些优秀的人会做出正确的决策。
And so it's great to have you help in. You're nice to say it. I think, you know, we tend to get unfair. The people that you named, you know, I'm beyond excited for Fiji to start all the other people you name. Like we tend to get unfair amounts of credit. It's, I could give you 100 names of the people that are very, very, the real work and are like, actually the reason I appreciate it's successful.
很高兴能有你的帮助。你真好，说出这些话。我想，你知道，我们往往得到不公平的赞誉。你提到的那些人，我对Fiji和其他人都感到无比激动。我们常常获得的不成比例的称赞。我可以给你列出100个名字，他们才是真正努力工作的人，实际上他们才是让我感激和成功的原因。
And, you know, hopefully we can tell their stories over time too. We will. All right. Thanks for being here. Thanks so much. Appreciate it. Yeah. As a reminder to everybody, just our opinions, not investment advice.
希望随着时间的推移，我们也能讲述他们的故事。我们会做到的。好的，谢谢大家的参与，真的非常感谢。再次提醒大家，这只是我们的个人看法，不是投资建议。