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June 2025 FOMC Debrief

发布时间 2025-06-19 00:26:50    来源
Hello my friends, so today is June 18th and this is my FOMC debrief. So I'm on the road today, so that's why this video is a little bit late, but to be honest you guys didn't miss anything. So before we talk about what happened today, let's level set a little bit. Now between today and the last FOMC meeting, I'd say we had some you know some meaningful developments. Particularly of course we had liberation day, we had the pivots and now we have geopolitical risk.
你好,朋友们,今天是6月18日,我来做一个美联储会议后的总结。今天我在路上,所以这个视频有点晚。不过,说实话,你们并没有错过什么。在我们讨论今天发生了什么之前,先来回顾一下情况。从上次美联储会议到今天,我觉得期间发生了一些重要的事情。尤其是,我们经历了解放日、政策转向,现在还面临地缘政治风险。

Now looking at the data the past few months, data has actually been pretty good from the Fed's perspective, focusing on inflation. Inflation has come in softer than expected and headline PCE, which is what the Fed looks at was only 2.1% year over year in April. On the employment front, we continue to create jobs. So that seems okay, but of course there are some weaknesses in the labor market. Be continuing claims continues to increase. So that means when people lose their job, it's harder and harder for them to find new jobs.
从过去几个月的数据来看,从美联储的角度,特别是关注通胀方面,数据实际上表现不错。通胀比预期温和,4月份美联储关注的核心个人消费支出(PCE)价格指数同比仅上涨了2.1%。在就业方面,我们持续创造就业机会,看起来还算不错,但劳动力市场确实存在一些弱点。持续申领失业救济金的人数在增加,这意味着人们失业后再找到新工作的难度越来越大。

And of course it seems like new graduates are having a harder time finding employment. So labor market is weakening, but it's still okay. Now one of the things that Sherpow has been focused on was inflation expectations. So if you go to economist school, you think inflation expectations are really important because once they become the anchor, or so once they trend higher, you know, maybe that impacts action inflation.
当然,新毕业生找工作似乎变得更困难了。因此,劳动力市场在走弱,但仍算可以。目前,Sherpow关注的一个重点是通胀预期。如果你去学经济学,你会认为通胀预期非常重要,因为一旦它们成为锚定点,或者一旦它们开始上升,就可能影响到实际的通货膨胀。

So they tend to think that if inflation expectations drip higher, realized inflation, action inflation goes higher as well. And so they were really concerned when many surveys were showing that inflation expectations for some parts of the population were very, very high. They were scared about tariffs. But after Trump's pivot, we see that surveys on inflation expectations have come down. So for a lot of people, me included, me included looking at so training lower inflation, lower inflation expectations, softening labor market, I tend to think that it's time to be thinking about cutting.
他们倾向于认为,如果通货膨胀预期上升,那么实际通货膨胀率也会上升。因此,当许多调查显示某些群体的通货膨胀预期非常高时,他们感到非常担忧。他们对关税感到害怕。但是,在特朗普转向后,我们看到有关通货膨胀预期的调查结果已经下降。所以对很多人来说,包括我在内,看到通货膨胀和通货膨胀预期下降,就业市场疲软,我倾向于认为是时候考虑降息了。

Heading into this meeting, the market was only pricing at two cuts. Now this meeting was special because it's a quarterly meeting and so we also get a dot plot. So we get to have a better view as to how the FOMC is thinking about the economy. So okay, let's turn to what happened at the meeting. So first off, looking at the dot plot, the dot plot was a bit surprising to me. It was surprising to me because it was somewhat stagnationary.
在这次会议之前,市场只预期会有两次降息。这次会议很特别,因为这是季度会议,因此我们还能看到一个利率预测图(dot plot)。通过这个,我们可以更好地了解联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)对经济的看法。现在,让我们来看看会议上发生了什么。首先,查看利率预测图,这个图让我有些惊讶,因为它表现出某种停滞的状态。

So the dot plot showed lower expectations for growth this year and also revising up a bit inflation from 2.7% to 3% at the end of the year and revising the unemployment rate a bit higher from 4.4% to 4.5%. So all in all, this is the fetus being a bit more downbeat on the economy and the median fed FOMC participants continue to expect two cuts this year in line with market expectations. And there's quite a number of them who don't even expect any cuts this year.
因此,点阵图显示出今年经济增长预期下降,同时将通胀预期从2.7%略微上调至3%,失业率预期从4.4%稍稍上调至4.5%。总体来看,这表明美联储对经济前景的态度更加悲观。美联储联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)的中位数参与者仍然预计今年会有两次降息,这与市场预期一致。而且还有相当多的人甚至不认为今年会进行任何降息。

So that's basically where we are and moving on to the conference. You know, yeah, and it's kind of the rehash of what we've been talking about. What the fed's been talking about for the past few months. You know, they just don't know what's going on. Just going to wait and see. Now, it's your pile seems to think that the labor market is pretty good.
所以基本上这就是我们的现状,接下来谈谈会议。你知道,这其实就是我们一直在讨论的话题的重述。这也是美联储过去几个月一直在讨论的内容。你知道的,他们对于现状也没有明确的看法,只能保持观望。现在,鲍威尔似乎认为劳动力市场状况良好。

So although there are signs that things are softening, things were basically at full employment and because the labor market so strong, he feels confident that we can just wait around and see how inflation turns out. Now, one thing I thought was pretty interesting was that, you know, why aren't you going to cut? I mean, and his point was that, you know, if you look, if you're looking backwards, the data has been good the past few months.
虽然有迹象表明情况有所缓和,但由于基本上处于全民就业状态,劳动力市场非常强劲,他对我们可以暂时观望,看看通货膨胀如何演变有信心。我觉得有趣的一点是,为什么你不打算减息?他的观点是,如果回头看,过去几个月的数据一直不错。

So yeah, you should be cutting, but he wants to look forward. And according to professional forecasters and I guess the fed themselves, inflation is expected to rise in the coming months as tariffs filter through into the economy. And that's totally reasonable. But I think it's also a bit surprising for him to have so much reliance on the quote unquote professional forecasters who honestly have been wrong a lot. Sometimes hugely and it doesn't really seem like Powell's style.
所以,是的,你应该采取削减措施,但他想展望未来。根据专业预测员和我猜测美联储本身的观点,随着关税在经济中逐步产生影响,预计未来几个月通货膨胀将会上升。这完全合乎情理。但我认为,他如此依赖这些所谓的“专业预测员”有点令人意外,老实说,他们经常预测错误,有时还错得离谱,而这似乎也不像是鲍威尔的风格。

I mean, he's a smart person. He knows that these models are for reference only, but he seems to be placing a lot of stock in them or at least agreeing with them. I don't know how he actually thinks about this other than what he tells me. So that's where we are just just waiting to see until the labor market cracks.
我的意思是,他是个聪明人。他知道这些模型只是供参考用,但他似乎对它们很有信心,或者至少是认同它们。我不知道除了他说的之外,他心里到底怎么想。所以我们就只能等着看看劳动力市场会不会出现问题了。

And then when the labor market cracks, then we will get cuts. And maybe we'll have more inflation as tariffs filter through. Although if you look at the inflation data lately, it does seem like inflation is filtering a little bit through. But remember, the inflation index is mostly services and say 40% goods. When we have tariffs, that impacts goods.
当劳动力市场出现裂缝时,我们就会看到削减(可能是降息或其他经济政策的调整)。也许当关税的影响传递开来后,我们会面对更多的通货膨胀。虽然如果你最近查看通胀数据,会发现通胀似乎有一点点在渗透。不过要注意,通胀指数主要由服务业构成,大约40%是商品。当我们有关税时,受影响的主要是商品。

And if you have goods inflation but a softening labor market, putting down repression on services inflation, usually that depends on the extent. But so far, just as of the last print, it seems like the services this inflation has been stronger. One other thing that I would point out is that this morning, President Trump was asked about Fedshire Powell and basically mentioned that he was a stupid person and even suggested that, hey, maybe he could appoint himself to be Fed Chair.
如果你有商品通货膨胀,但就业市场疲软,这会对服务业通货膨胀产生抑制作用,通常这取决于影响的程度。但是到目前为止,根据最近的数据来看,服务业的通货膨胀似乎减弱得更为明显。另外,我想指出的是,今天早上特朗普总统被问及美联储主席鲍威尔时,他基本上表示鲍威尔是个愚蠢的人,甚至还建议他自己可以担任美联储主席。

Now, that's something else that we should keep in mind. And that makes the Fed matter even less. Now, we've been talking about this for some time and that we should focus less on the Fed because there's so many other moving parts that are becoming more important. Fiscal spending, for example, and now geopolitical stuff and also how the White House is conducting trade policy, which is within their purview. These are all things that are much more important than the Fed, who is on hold.
现在,这是我们应该牢记的另一件事。这让美联储的重要性进一步降低。我们已经讨论这个问题有一段时间了,我们应该减少对美联储的关注,因为还有很多其他正在变得更重要的因素。例如,财政支出、地缘政治事务,以及白宫如何执行贸易政策,这些都在他们的职权范围内。这些都比目前处于观望状态的美联储要重要得多。

But even looking at the Fed, this Powell Fed is going to become less important because in the coming months, Trump is going to appoint his own person. And that person is going to be a Trump guy and he's going to like easy money. Now, all these people were worried about independence of the Fed that the that Powell will get fired by Trump.
即便是看美联储,当前由鲍威尔领导的美联储将会变得不那么重要,因为在接下来的几个月里,特朗普会任命自己的人选。而那个人将会是一个支持特朗普的人,偏向于宽松的货币政策。目前,许多人担心美联储的独立性,以及特朗普可能会解雇鲍威尔。

But like I mentioned before, eventually, eventually Trump is going to get his person as Powell's term expires. So I think we should focus more on that in the coming months. In any case, Fed meetings are very boring now guys. Go watch and see what's happening in geopolitics. That's that's what's going to be moving the markets. All right, talk to you all this weekend.
就像我之前提到的,最终特朗普会在鲍威尔任期结束后,找到他想要的人选。所以我认为我们应该在接下来的几个月里更关注这一点。无论如何,现在美联储的会议都很无聊,大家去看看地缘政治发生了什么吧,那才是将影响市场的因素。好吧,这周末再跟大家聊。



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