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Charles Payne Show June 16, 2025

发布时间 2025-06-16 23:39:18    来源
My next guest says that President Trump could impact interest rates before the end of Pounce term. We just kind of talked about that by declaring a Fed chair, particularly a dovish one. I want to bring in now the CIO of monetary macro.com, Joe Wang. You know, Joe, we've got up here sort of the folks and the race. Now, you think that obviously the president wants someone who's prone to cutting. Are any of these folks in your mind natural doves? Well, first off, thank you. Good to see you again, Charles. So Charles, when I think about dubbish, I'm thinking about a feature that values employment more than inflation. OK. So the Fed has a dual mandate, right? So that means they have a lot of leeway as to what they do. Let's say that unemployment is a little bit high or inflation a little bit high. How are you going to balance that? So a dubbish feature will go for the trying to lower employment. And so that means lower rates.
我的下一位嘉宾表示,特朗普总统可能在彭斯任期结束前对利率产生影响。我们刚刚谈到,他可能会任命一位特别鸽派的美联储主席。我现在想请来monetarymacro.com的首席信息官,Joe Wang。Joe,你知道,我们这里有一些人选和竞争。你认为总统显然希望选择倾向于降息的人。在你看来,这些人中有没有天然的鸽派?首先,谢谢你。很高兴再次见到你,Charles。Charles,当我想到鸽派时,我考虑的是比起通胀更重视就业的特点。美联储有双重任务,对吧?这意味着他们在政策执行上有很大弹性。假设失业率有点高或者通胀有点高,你将如何平衡呢?鸽派倾向于努力降低失业率,这就意味着降低利率。

Now, I'm guessing that wherever Trump appoints, it's going to be someone that buys employment more than inflation. Now, some of the names on that list, like Kevin Walsh, have a long history of being very, very hawkish. I think that he even wanted to hike after Lehman. So that kind of surprises me a little bit, but I guess people can involve in their views. And the Fed shares is a valuable thing. So I'm guessing whoever Trump appoints is someone that's going to be on the same page as him. And that's someone who's going to be the one who prefers lower rates. Yeah, I don't think it's going to be war, either. I think it would be Waller, Besson, even, maybe Kevin has it. By the way, my man Larry Cutlow's polling at 5%. He may not want anybody to know that, but he's moving pretty quickly at the polls.
现在,我猜测特朗普任命的人,很可能更关注就业而非通货膨胀。名单上的一些人,比如凯文·沃尔什,有长期以来非常强硬的历史。我觉得他甚至想在雷曼兄弟崩溃后加息,这让我有点惊讶,但我猜人们的观点可能会改变。而美联储主席的位置是非常重要的角色。我猜特朗普任命的人应该和他的立场一致,这个人可能会倾向于保持较低的利率。我不认为会是战争(可能是某个名字翻译),也许是沃勒或贝森,甚至可能是凯文。另外,我的朋友拉里·库德洛的支持率是5%。他可能不愿意让别人知道这一点,但他的民调结果在迅速提升。

Let's talk about inflation expectations. They've come down a lot. We saw last week the New York Fed, even the University of Michigan coming down. And listen, this is skewed, folks. Know that this is 40% Democrats, 20% Republican. So that number is always going to be skewed in a different direction, depending who's in office. Does J-PAL have at least a cover to not necessarily cut on Wednesday? But to start to say we might tee up a cut soon? Well, absolutely, Charles. Now, when I look at the economic data, the Fed has a very clear place to be cutting. Now, looking at the labor market, we see continuing claims surging to multi-year highs. We have a front page news story right now that new graduates are having a lot of trouble finding work. So the labor market is definitely softening.
让我们谈谈通胀预期。它们已经大幅下降。我们上周看到纽约联邦储备银行的数据,甚至密歇根大学的调查结果也显示出下降。请注意,这些数据存在偏差。要知道,调查对象中有40%是民主党人,20%是共和党人。因此,这个数字总是会因为谁在掌权而在某种方向上产生偏差。杰罗姆·鲍威尔是否有理由在周三不一定降息,但可以开始表示很快可能会降息?当然有,查尔斯。现在,当我查看经济数据时,美联储有一个非常明晰的理由去降息。现在再看看劳动力市场,我们看到持续申领失业救济金的人数激增到多年新高。目前有一个头版新闻说新毕业生在找工作方面遇到很大困难。所以劳动力市场显然正在走软。

And at the same time, looking at realized inflation prints, we had a really cold CPI and PC headline on a year of your basis printed at just 2.1% last month. So there's plenty of room to cut. Now, what's been holding the Fed back has been inflation expectations. Like you suggest, there's some portion of the public that was totally, totally freaked out about tariffs. And their inflation expectations went to the roof and that dragged up a lot of inflation expectation surveys. But now that that tariff is somewhat behind us, after all, President Trump did pivot. And as you mentioned, it was a brilliant negotiation strategy. We have inflation expectations coming down.
同时,在观察实际的通胀数据时,我们发现上个月的消费者价格指数(CPI)和个人消费支出(PCE)年同比增长率仅为2.1%,非常低。所以,现在确实有足够的空间来降低利率。然而,美联储一直犹豫不决的原因是通胀预期。就像你提到的,一部分公众对关税感到非常担忧,他们的通胀预期飙升,这也带动了很多通胀预期调查数据的上涨。但现在,由于关税问题已经有所缓解,毕竟特朗普总统做出了转变,就像你提到的,这是一种聪明的谈判策略,我们注意到通胀预期正在下降。

In the University of Michigan survey, it's coming down. In the Fed survey, it's coming down. And in market measures, so inflation swaps it's also coming down. And so that takes away a lot of the hesitation the Fed had that longer-retarded inflation expectations would be unanchored. So they definitely have room to signify a cut. And there are members on the FOMC that are saying this, such as Governor Waller, who's saying he's willing to look past the increases in tariffs as a one-time transitory price shock. So I've only got a minute to go. But here's one thing I've been talking about for well over a month, a couple of months.
在密歇根大学的调查中,数字正在下降。在美联储的调查中,数字也在下降。而在市场指标中,比如通胀互换,数字同样在下降。这减少了美联储对长期通胀预期失去锚定的担忧。因此,他们肯定有空间去表明可能降息。此外,美联储公开市场委员会的一些成员也在这样说,比如Waller委员就表示,他愿意将关税上涨视为一次性暂时性的价格冲击。那么我只剩一分钟时间,但这里有一个我已经谈了一个多月的话题。

So there's talk that the CPI may drift up to 3%. It was at 9.1 in June of 2022. And then, of course, the dollar. The dollar continues to go down. Everyone's saying it should have popped up on this Israeli situation. But again, at almost 98, this is supposed to be the end in the world. But back here, it was at 90, rather, when Joe Biden was in office. And I just don't understand the narrative that inflation at 3, but not 9.1, that the dollar at 98, not 90, is all of a sudden the end of the world, the end of American exceptionalism.
有传言说消费物价指数(CPI)可能会上升到3%。在2022年6月时,这个指数曾达到9.1%。此外,美元继续下跌。大家都说在以色列问题爆发后,美元应该上涨。然而,当美元接近98时,人们却认为这是世界末日。然而,实际上当乔·拜登执政时,美元曾是90。我不明白为什么现在通胀率是3%,而不是9.1%,美元是98,而不是90,却突然被视为世界末日和美国例外论的终结。

Yeah, that's a little bit dramatic. And now, let's take a disset back. The dollar varies over time, right? Now, the dollar is historically quite strong. And for it to come down a little bit, it doesn't mean that we're losing reserve currency status. It just means a little bit of mean reversion. And after all, having a weaker dollar from my understanding is one of the things this administration would like. One of the goals is to revitalize U.S. manufacturing, U.S. exports. And having a weaker dollar would be helpful for that.
是的,这有点夸张。让我们冷静一下。美元的价值是随着时间变化的,对吧?目前美元在历史上相对较强,而如果它稍微下降一点,这并不意味着我们会失去储备货币的地位。这只是意味着一种小幅的均值回归。毕竟,据我所知,让美元走弱是当前政府希望实现的目标之一。他们的目标之一是振兴美国制造业和出口,而较弱的美元有助于实现这个目标。

Now, the CPI, it seems like it's a little bit stuck, but then there's a lot of things happening right now that could downward pressure. For example, we're enforcing immigration law. And that means there's less population growth. That means there's less demand for rent for shelter. And that's going to continue to help shelter disinflation, which would be great for CPI and great for the American public as well.
现在,消费者价格指数(CPI)似乎有点停滞不前,但现在有很多因素可能会对其造成下行压力。比如,我们正在加强执行移民法。这意味着人口增长减少,进而导致对住房的需求减少。这将继续促进住房方面的通货紧缩,这对CPI和美国公众来说都是好事。

So no, I wouldn't be so dramatic as well. There are things that are changing, but things are always changing. It's not something that I'd be very alarmed in. Joe, it's always great to have your expertise on the show. Thank you so much, my friend. I appreciate it. Thank you, Charles.
所以,我也不会表现得那么夸张的。确实有些事情在发生变化,但事情总是在变化。我不会对此感到特别担忧。Joe,很高兴能在节目中听到你的专业见解。非常感谢你,我的朋友。我很感激。谢谢你,Charles。



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