Markets Weekly June 14 2025

Hello my friends, today is June 14th and this is markets weekly. So this past week was an action-packed week in markets, basically how it's been every week in the Trump era and looks like it's going to continue to be like this for the foreseeable future. So today let's talk about three things. First off, we got a whole bunch of data on inflation and employment the past week and it's looking increasingly to me that the Fed is late to the rate-cutting party.

你好，朋友们。今天是6月14日，欢迎收看本周市场周报。过去这一周，市场充满了各种动荡，基本上在特朗普时代，每周都如此，看起来这种情况将继续在可预见的未来持续下去。今天，我们来讨论三个话题。首先，上周我们收到了很多关于通胀和就业的数据。我越来越觉得，美国联邦储备委员会在降低利率的行动中似乎迟了一步。

Secondly, of course we have to talk about the topic du jour, war in the Middle East. So let's talk a little bit about how the conflict between Israel and Iran could impact markets. And lastly let's talk a little bit about the dollar, which is really not looking too good. And also we should have a small update on the trade situation. So this week actually began you know with a positive note as President Trump declared a deal with China on trade coming out of discussions from London. But really reading the articles I'm not really sure what happened.

其次，我们当然需要谈谈今天的热门话题，中东的战争。让我们稍微谈谈以色列和伊朗之间的冲突可能如何影响市场。最后，我们也应该聊聊美元的问题，美元的表现不是很好。此外，我们还需要对贸易形势进行一个小更新。事实上，本周开始的时候有一个积极的消息，那就是特朗普总统在伦敦的讨论中宣布与中国达成了贸易协议。但是，读了这些文章后，我不太清楚具体发生了什么。

It really seemed like China was slow walking rare earth exports to the US causing pain to US companies and Washington asked for a meeting and now those rare earth exports are resuming. So what this whole thing tells me is that in the US-China trade war China has a clear upper hand. Whereas the US is the world's largest consumer and normally the client has enormous amounts of leverage and it will continue to have with negotiations say with Mexico or with the European Union and Japan and so forth.

这段话的大意是：中国似乎在故意放慢向美国出口稀土，这对美国公司造成了困扰。因此，华盛顿要求进行会谈，现在稀土出口正在恢复。这整个事件让我觉得，在中美贸易战中，中国明显占有优势。通常来说，作为世界上最大消费国的美国在贸易谈判中应该拥有相当大的话语权，比如与墨西哥、欧盟和日本等国家的谈判，但在与中国的交易中，美国的这种优势并没有显现。

But with China, China has a lock on global rare earth production and much higher pain tolerance as well. So it seems like whenever a person she wants he can just turn the screws on by limiting rare earth exports. So it looks like the US-China trade war continues to go very poorly. All right now let's turn to the data of the past week. So from the Fed's perspective they've been you know kind of really worried about inflation as part of their mandate.

但与中国相比，中国在全球稀土生产上占据主导地位，并且在承受压力方面的能力也更强。因此，看起来只要她想，就可以通过限制稀土出口来施加压力。因此，美中贸易战似乎进展得非常不顺利。好，现在让我们来看看过去一周的数据。从美联储的角度来看，他们一直非常担心通货膨胀，作为其职责的一部分。

So for good reason of course we just had a big inflationary surge for the past few years but now what they're concerned about is that there are all these big policy changes and they're kind of frozen in place. They're saying that we have changes in immigration policy, regulatory policy, fiscal policy, trade policy and so forth and they're not quite sure how to react and also they've been looking at surveys that suggest that consumer inflation expectations have been surging out of control and that's making them concerned as well.

当然，这是有原因的。我们过去几年的确经历了一轮大的通货膨胀浪潮，但现在他们担心的是，各种重大的政策改革似乎停滞不前。他们指出，我们在移民政策、监管政策、财政政策和贸易政策等方面都有变化，但他们不太确定该如何应对。此外，他们也查看了许多调查，这些调查显示，消费者对通胀的预期已失控，这也让他们感到担忧。

So what they've been doing is standing pat and continuing to tell everyone that they're just going to stand pat and wait until the data decisively turns the market. As of today, the market is just pricing in two cuts this year. So this past week we got a bunch of inflation data both hard data and data on inflation expectations. Now we got CPI which to the surprise of the market printed in much lower than expected at just 0.1% month over month.

他们的做法是保持不变，并继续告诉大家，他们将保持不变并等到数据明确扭转市场为止。截至目前，市场仅预期今年会有两次降息。所以，上周我们得到了一些通胀数据，包括实际数据和对通胀预期的数据。现在，我们得到的消费者价格指数（CPI）出乎市场意料，仅环比上涨了0.1%，远低于预期。

Looking at the CPI broadly it seems like what's happening is that year over year headline CPI is just about 2.5% with core CPI printing a little bit under 3% year over year. Now headline is lower than core because there's been deflation in energy of course oil prices have gone down a lot until the past week. So you know just looking at these numbers it seems like inflation is really just a bit above the fixed target. So it doesn't seem like the inflation is as a problem anymore. Now taking a step back looking at just the trend of inflation it's really clear that inflation is decisively trending downwards.

从总体来看CPI，我们可以看到，目前年度总体CPI大约是2.5%，而核心CPI的年度增幅略低于3%。现在，总体CPI低于核心CPI的原因是能源价格出现了通缩，当然，直到上周为止，油价已经下跌了很多。所以，仅从这些数字来看，通胀率实际上只是略高于既定目标。因此，通胀似乎不再是个大问题了。退一步来看整个通胀趋势，显然可以看到通胀正在明显下降。

Now even in places like say shelter rent that has been sticky is also gradually trending lower. Now many people have been worried about how tariffs can impact inflation and we've discussed how businesses look like they're going to pass generally going to pass some of it on to consumers. Well that really is kind of showing up but really it is not that important because when you're looking at the inflation indexes the most of it is services inflation because the US is a services driven economy.

现在，即使是在像住房租金这样的领域，这曾经一直居高不下的价格也在逐渐下降。许多人一直担心关税如何影响通胀，我们也讨论过企业似乎会把一部分成本转嫁给消费者。这确实开始显现，但其实这并不是特别重要，因为当你查看通胀指数时，其中大多数是服务业的通胀，因为美国是一个以服务业为主导的经济体。

The goods part of it is a smaller part. Now it seems like there is some upward inflation in goods obviously that's the stuff we import from China but goods inflation is being overwhelmed by disinflation in services. So as the labor market weakens you know wages don't grow as quickly and so that puts down pressure on service inflation and so services disinflation is overwhelming goods inflation and that's leading to an overall I think disinflationary trend according to the inflation indexes.

商品方面的影响较小。现在看来，商品确实有一些通胀压力，显然那是我们从中国进口的东西造成的，但商品的通胀被服务领域的通缩所抵消。随着劳动力市场的疲软，工资增长放缓，这就对服务业通胀产生了抑制作用。因此，服务业的通缩超过了商品通胀，根据通胀指数，这导致了整体上我认为的通缩趋势。

But again that's just CPI the Fed doesn't look at CPI it looks at PCE. Now after CPI we also got the PPI print that's basically a measure of prices paid by producers say companies and PPI also came in lower than expected so when you have CPI and you have PPI you can have a pretty good estimate as to what PCE will be. Now based on the Fed's estimate Cleveland Fed's estimate PCE is going to print at a pretty tame level. Again it looks like it's going to be about 2.5% in year over year just a little bit above the Fed's target.

不过，这只是CPI（消费者价格指数），美联储不看CPI，而是关注PCE（个人消费支出价格指数）。现在在CPI数据发布后，我们还得到了PPI（生产者价格指数）的数据。PPI基本上是衡量企业等生产者支付的价格水平，PPI的数据也低于预期。因此，当你有CPI和PPI的数据时，你可以很好地估计PCE的情况。根据美联储，尤其是克利夫兰联储的估计，PCE将会维持在一个相对温和的水平。看起来，PCE的同比增长率将是2.5%左右，略高于美联储的目标。

Now as tariffs have kind of been walked back it seems like it's also had a big impact on consumer inflation expectations. Now we've all seen that University of Michigan survey where say Democrats have very very high inflation expectations you know approaching 10% and Republicans have pretty low inflation expectations approaching zero but overall though it seems like according to these Michigan inflation surveys the median inflation expectation one year forward has been coming down and when you look at inflation expectation surveys from the New York Fed which is I think not as politically biased it seems it's also been coming down still above 3% but still trending lower.

现在，由于关税政策有所缓和，似乎对消费者的通货膨胀预期产生了很大影响。大家都知道，密歇根大学的调查显示，不同政党的人们对通胀的预期差异很大，比如说，民主党人对通胀的预期非常高，接近10%，而共和党人的预期则相对较低，接近于零。不过，总体来看，根据密歇根大学的通胀调查显示，一年后的中位通胀预期正在下降。而从纽约联储的通胀预期调查结果来看（相比之下，这个调查在政治倾向上似乎没那么偏颇），通胀预期同样在降低，虽然仍高于3%，但总体趋势是减缓的。

Now looking at market-based measures of inflation expectations so one year inflation swaps it seems like inflation anticipated by the market for one year forward has also been coming down. It's spiked a whole lot after liberation day but as the tariffs have been walked back inflation expectations have been coming down. So all in all it seems like both realized inflation is trending lower and printing a lower than expected and also inflation expectations have been coming down. So whereas the Fed has been very worried about these things it seems like that should be moderating.

现在来看基于市场的通胀预期指标，比如一年期的通胀掉期，看起来市场对未来一年的通胀预期也在下降。在解放日之后，通胀预期曾经大幅攀升，但随着关税的取消，通胀预期已经在下降。总体来看，实际通胀率正在走低，数据也低于预期，同时通胀预期也在下降。因此，尽管美联储对这些问题非常担忧，看起来这种担忧应该有所缓和。

Now Fed is a two-man-day bank you got inflation and you also have employment. Now what's the employment picture it looked like? So we had a pretty good jobs print for last month again comfortably over 100,000 jobs created but there are also some signs that there are cracks in the labor market. Every week we get the unemployment claims and it looks like continuing unemployment claims is surging to multi-year highs. So still it's not super high but it is a very steady trend that suggests that the labor market is weakening.

现在美联储有两个主要关注点：通胀和就业。那么目前的就业情况是什么样的呢？上个月的就业数据相当不错，新增工作岗位轻松超过10万个。但也有迹象表明劳动力市场出现了一些问题。我们每周都会收到失业救济申请的数据，看起来持续申请失业救济的人数正在飙升，达到了多年以来的新高。因此，虽然失业率还不是特别高，但这一稳定上升的趋势表明劳动力市场正在走弱。

So continuing unemployment claims is basically the stock of people who are unemployed and continue to file unemployment claims. So that tells me that people who have lost their jobs are having trouble finding new jobs and so over time the pull of the unemployment unemployment people is rising. So again it suggests weakness in the labor market. So all in all with just two rate cuts priced into the market and the Fed of course is expected to not do anything at their meeting the next week. It seems like they really are just going to commit to being a bit late.

继续申请失业救济的人数基本上就是那些失业后继续申请失业救济的人的总量。这表明那些失去工作的人在找新工作时遇到了困难，因此，随着时间的推移，失业人群的数量正在增加。这再次显示了劳动力市场的疲软。综上所述，目前市场只预计降息两次，美联储当然也预计在下周的会议上什么都不会做。这似乎表明，他们实际上只是准备略迟一点行动。

So I think eventually though when the data does more decisively turn we could have more rate cuts than expected and probably on a more expedited time frame. So I guess we'll find out more this coming week as we also have an SAP dot plot and hopefully in that dot plot the Fed will acknowledge that things are deteriorating. Now one more thing on this note is that as we think about the Fed I think it's important to realize that you know next year we're going to have a new Fed chair and President Trump is already talking about who he might appoint.

所以我想，最终当数据更明确地发生变化时，我们可能会迎来比预期更多的降息，而且可能是在更快的时间框架内进行。所以我想我们将在这周了解到更多信息，因为我们还会看到SAP（利率）点阵图，希望在这个图中，美联储能承认情况正在恶化。还有一点值得注意的是，关于美联储的问题，我认为重要的是要意识到明年我们会有一位新任美联储主席，而特朗普总统已经在讨论他可能会任命谁。

Now there's whispers of course in the market that no President Trump is going to get an easy money guy and so rates are going to go much lower next year. I have no idea. Remember this also has to pass the Senate. So some possible candidates for Fed chair of course are Kevin Walsh, Governor Waller and this past week Secretary Besson was also floated out as well. You know President Trump always likes drama. He likes to have his apprentice style tournament system so I have no idea who's actually going to be Fed chair but you know as we've talked about before Kevin Walsh would be a mega hawk consistently hawkish throughout his career and oftentimes quite wrong on his policy views.

现在市场上有传言称，特朗普总统可能会选择一位支持宽松货币政策的人，因此明年的利率可能会大幅下降。我不确定这种情况会发生。记住，这一任命还需要参议院的批准。所以联储主席的可能候选人包括凯文·沃尔什、理事沃勒，而上周财政部长贝森也被提出来。众所周知，特朗普总统常喜欢制造戏剧化的场面，就像他的“学徒”节目中的淘汰赛一样。因此，我也不清楚谁最终会成为美联储主席。不过，正如我们之前讨论过的，凯文·沃尔什是个极其“鹰派”的人物，他在职业生涯中始终持有鹰派立场，并且他的政策观点常常被证明是错误的。

Don't understand why President Trump keeps walking him out. Waller of course has been much better on policy. The past cycle is bio-accounts is you know a good guy I've met him before but seems to be lacking a bit on the Trump loyalty metric right. He's not strongly part of mega although recent communication is suggesting that he is trying to signal that he is sympathetic to mega but let's see how that happens and of course Besson't you know I'm not really sure why he would want to be Fed chair.

不明白为什么特朗普总统总是支持他。沃勒在政策上当然表现得更好。在过去的周期中，"生物账号"是个好人，我以前见过他，但在对特朗普的忠诚度上似乎有些不足。他并不是强力的“美国优先”阵营的一员，不过最近的沟通表明他正在努力表示自己对“美国优先”持同情态度，但我们拭目以待。当然，贝森特嘛，我不太确定他为什么想成为联储主席。

It seems Treasury Secretary isn't much more important job these days as the federal government becomes more and more powerful. Definitely has expertise in markets being part of the Trump cabinet probably has loyalty towards Trump as well so not sure why he wanted but it seemed like if he did want it would be a good candidate but anyway these are all the people we're thinking about. Now could be someone that we don't even have in mind at the moment so also something to keep in mind if it's someone uber dovish you know that hopefully now the market usually is not super forward looking but hopefully that will have some impact on the markets.

随着联邦政府的权力越来越大，财政部长这个职位似乎不再像以前那么重要。作为特朗普内阁的一员，他肯定对市场有专业见解，而且可能对特朗普也很忠诚，所以不太清楚为什么他想要这个职位。不过，如果他确实想要，那会是一个不错的人选。不过，我们考虑的人选还有很多。目前也可能有人选是我们现在没想到的，所以这一点也需要注意。如果人选非常鸽派，希望这能对市场产生一些影响，尽管市场通常并不具有很强的前瞻性。

All right the second thing we have to talk about is the war in the Middle East now kind of picking back on the thought that the market is not really forward looking that really has been my experience now a lot of people say that market is a discounting mechanism is already you know looking at what happened but that in my experience is just not true so you can see this in many ways right I think about COVID that was kind of the big event of our time but really it wasn't it wasn't a black swan at all you had this huge huge pandemic happening in China going out of control everyone saw clips of it on Twitter then you have it coming out spreading the Italy and so forth so totally totally foreseeable and yet the market really didn't react until the very very end or you can look at the liberation day tariffs right now President Trump had tariffs his first term been talking about tariffs for 40 years been telegraphing it over and over again in his campaign saying you know 10 20% on the rest of the world maybe 50% on China and that's basically where we are today and still the market you know just didn't seem to get it.

好的，我们接下来要讨论的第二件事是中东的战争。顺着这个思路延续下去，市场并不是非常前瞻性，我的经验确实也是这样。很多人说市场是一个折现机制，已经在预见将来发生的事情，但根据我的经验，这并不是真的。举几个例子吧，比如说COVID，这本是我们这个时代的大事件，但其实它根本不是一个黑天鹅事件。中国发生了大规模的疫情并失控，大家在推特上都能看到相关的片段，接着疫情传播到了意大利等等，这一切都是完全可以预见的。然而，市场直到最后才有所反应。或者我们看看关税问题，特朗普总统在他的第一任期内征收了关税，他已经谈论关税政策有40年了，并在竞选中一次又一次地预告会对世界其他国家征收10%、20%的关税，甚至对中国征收50%的关税，而今天我们的情况基本上就这样，然而市场似乎仍然没有领会这些信息。

Now that brings us to this war in in the Middle East you know this is actually widely telegraphed as well so earlier in the week so the president you know just chilling and kept David with his advisors talking about the Iran situation then again this is all public on Monday heavy on call with President Nishin Yahoo again then on Wednesday you know just uh withdrawing embassy staff from Iraq then of course in a press conference saying that you know something might happen in the Middle East and then boom the war happens on Thursday evening so the stuff was kind of all in your face so again the market is not forward looking in honestly in my life all the great trades I've made have been in these situations where it's just kind of so obvious that what's coming.

现在，让我们谈谈中东的这场战争。这其实早有预兆。本周早些时候，总统在戴维营与顾问们讨论伊朗局势，同时与以色列总理内塔尼亚胡通话。周三则从伊拉克撤回了大使馆工作人员。之后，在新闻发布会上，他提到中东可能会发生一些事情，然后，周四晚上战争就爆发了。这一系列事件其实非常明显。所以市场并不具备前瞻性。老实说，我生活中做出的所有成功交易都发生在这种局势非常明显的情况下。

Now in any case this uh from and I've been listening to all sorts of uh experts on this now to extend their our experts in geopolitics probably no more than I do but anyway I've listened to many of them from all sorts of uh perspectives and it seems like the very clear consensus is what that this was a very successful and well executed attack on Iran and Iran is you know really in a bad situation and there aren't no good options so I'll sensibly this is about say Israel going forward and trying to take out all the nuclear facilities in Iran so that they cannot have a nuclear weapon.

从各类专家那里了解到，现在看来，普遍的看法是，这次对伊朗的袭击非常成功且执行得当。伊朗目前的处境很糟糕，没有好的应对选择。这件事显然是关于以色列未来可能采取的行动，他们可能会试图摧毁伊朗的所有核设施，以防止伊朗获得核武器。

Now the White House initially claimed that they had you know no involvement in this but of course subsequently we all know now that of course of course they were involved of course they knew about it and even President Trump is posting on truth social seemingly to express support or even take some credit for it and now that it's gone well now the immediate reaction to this of course is a huge spike in oil prices now interestingly if you think back the past few months we've had opaque gradually increased the supply of oil and we also have found out through reporting that this attack was originally planned for April so it looks like this is something that has been in the works for some time just as we have more geopolitical risk premium oil prices and so many big oil producers have been flooding the market now the really smart oil guys are saying that you know this this oil price thing is not is going to fade because at the end of the day there is just a lot of oil in the world opaque is pumping a lot.

现在，白宫最初声称他们对此事没有任何参与，但后来我们都知道，当然他们参与了这一事件，他们对此是知情的。甚至特朗普总统在Truth Social上发布信息，似乎在表达支持，甚至试图为此事居功。而这件事进展顺利后，立即反应就是油价的飙升。有趣的是，如果回顾过去几个月，OPEC逐渐增加了石油供应，并且通过报道我们得知这次袭击原计划在四月进行，所以看起来这已经是筹划已久的事情。随着地缘政治风险溢价的增加，许多大型产油国一直在向市场注入石油。而真正有远见的石油专家表示，这次油价上涨的情况不会持久，因为归根结底，全球石油供应充足，OPEC也在大量生产。

And also it seems like China has enormous amount of oil reserves that they can just release or use if they want so from a supply and demand perspective there really is no point in having really high oil prices all this is geopolitical premium. Now the people who are really it's worried about this could say that you know maybe Iran can close the streets of Harmoos that would really impact global shipping maybe they can go and just destroy oil production facilities throughout the Gulf region maybe their own oil production facilities can destroy it and so forth but that all seems to be kind of a low probability scenario since if they were to do that you know that would make their allies very upset and that would also invite the United States to participate which of course they don't want so right now it seems like this is going to go on for some time.

此外，中国似乎拥有巨大的石油储备，如果他们愿意，可以随时释放或使用。因此，从供需角度来看，完全没有必要维持高油价，目前的情况更多是地缘政治因素造成的。一些对此感到担忧的人可能会说，也许伊朗会关闭霍尔木兹海峡，这将严重影响全球航运，或者他们可能会去破坏整个海湾地区的石油生产设施，甚至可能他们自己的石油生产设施也会被破坏等。但这些似乎都是概率较低的情境，因为如果他们这么做，会让他们的盟友非常不满，同时也可能引来美国的介入，而这显然不是他们想要的。因此，目前看来，这种情况可能会持续一段时间。

Prime Minister Nathanyahu was suggested this could go on for weeks that they're just going to keep doing this until they accomplish the destruction of Iranian nuclear facilities so it seems like they have decapitated the air defenses over Iran so they can just keep flying bombing missions until they get they want now Iranian facilities are buried deep within the ground and you know normally people would not expect this to be successful without USAID because you need a lot of refueling Iran and Israel actually quite far apart and also much bigger bunker bombs or bombs that the US has and you usually need big planes like B2 bombs to carry but it seems like Israel is able to accomplish this just by you know flying sorties over and over again so that seems to be what's happening and of course Iran is flying missiles and counter attacking looks like this is not something that's going to end soon and now there are no good options for Iran seems like also that what's happening is that there are mentions of regime change one of that could be a potential goal I feel like that story has been told over and over again and has never ended well though so this is something that's going to weigh on markets probably for the foreseeable future.

以色列总理内塔尼亚胡被建议这种行动可能会持续数周，他们会一直继续轰炸，直到摧毁伊朗的核设施为止。看来他们已经削弱了伊朗上空的防空系统，因此可以反复进行轰炸任务，直到达成目标。然而，伊朗的设施深埋地下，通常没有美国的帮助，人们不会认为这样的行动会成功，因为以色列和伊朗之间距离较远，需要大量空中加油，而且需要更大的美国炸弹，比如B2轰炸机才能携带这些重型炸弹。但是，似乎以色列可以通过不断出动战斗机来实现这个目标。目前，伊朗正在发射导弹进行反击，这场冲突似乎不会很快结束。与此同时，伊朗面临着没有好选择的困境，也有关于政权更迭的讨论，这可能是潜在目标之一，但这样的故事已经被讲述过许多次，结果都不太好。因此，这一局势可能在可预见的未来对市场产生压力。

Now one thing to keep in mind is that we have options quarterly options expere this Friday and also of course the huge gpm trade on the end of the month so that's a lot of gamma that will keep the market supported so but in any case something to definitely keep in mind and usually historically speaking that geopolitical events are something that people would fade but of course you have to know when to fade it because you fade it too early you know it could get a much much worse before it gets better all right now the last thing that I want to talk about is the US dollar now what's been really striking to me is that the US dollar has not been getting a big safe haven bid from geopolitics and you can say similarly to the treasury market as well know a lot of things drive the dollar you have rate different interests as well and the past week we did have a softer than expected inflation print and that's leading the market to maybe price a little bit more rate cuts and that could be weighing on the dollar as well but if you look at this DXY chart it looks like the dollar really is deteriorating and this is something that I've been writing about for for for a few months actually and I think this is going to be the core macro trend I think for the next couple years and understanding this and how this feeds into the financial system is going to be key to understanding asset prices and of course I've written extensively about that as well.

请注意，本周五我们有季度期权到期，月底还有一个规模巨大的GPM交易，这些都会为市场提供支持。不过，无论如何，这都是需要记住的一点。历史上，地缘政治事件通常是人们会选择淡化处理的，但关键在于要知道何时淡化，因为如果处理得太早，情况可能会在好转之前变得更加糟糕。 接下来，我想谈一下美元。令我非常惊讶的是，尽管发生了地缘政治事件，美元并没有像预期那样成为避险资产，同样的情况也发生在国债市场。影响美元的因素有很多，比如利率差异。上周，出现了比预期更温和的通胀数据，这让市场可能会考虑更多的降息，而这可能对美元产生压力。但是，如果你看DXY图表，美元确实在走弱。这是我几个月来一直在写的问题，我认为这将成为未来几年宏观经济的核心趋势。理解这一点以及它如何影响金融体系将是理解资产价格的关键。当然，我也对此进行了深入的研究和写作。

Now one thing I thought was really interesting is what is this chart from Bloomberg is showing CDS now sovereign CDS is and how the US compares to other nations now CDS is just insurance people pay to insure against the fault from sovereign debt or debt in general now sovereign CDS is usually somewhat nonsensical because obviously the United States is going to pay its bills honestly any fiat country really is not going to default so this is going to be a very small market very niche market it's not going to be super meaningful but I think it's interesting though it's at least compare what CDS pricing is for the US compared to other countries and what this chart from Bloomberg is showing is that since liberation day you know the US CDS has risen and it's now trading comparable to countries say like Greece and Italy so countries that are you know not developing countries but also not what you would expect from a reserve currency top tier first world country and I think that it reflects the broader theme that we see in a weakening dollar foreigner rebalancing out of churches and just the overall governance of the United States.

我认为这段话很有趣，因为它讨论了来自彭博社的一张图表，该图表展示了息差互换（CDS）如何运作，现在国家级的CDS是什么，以及美国与其他国家相比的情况。CDS基本上就是人们为防范国家债务或一般债务违约而支付的保险。通常情况下，国家级CDS有点无意义，因为显然像美国这样的国家是会支付账单的，事实上，任何主权货币国家都不大可能违约。因此，这是一个非常小的市场，非常特定的市场，不会有太大的意义。不过，我认为比较有趣的是，我们至少可以看看美国的CDS定价与其他国家的对比情况。彭博社的这张图表显示，自某个关键节点以来，美国的CDS价格上涨，现在与像希腊和意大利这样的国家差不多。这些国家虽然不是发展中国家，但也不像是我们通常认为的拥有储备货币的顶尖发达国家。我认为这反映了一个更广泛的主题，即当前美元的走软，外国投资者正在重新平衡资产组合以及整个美国治理问题。

So things are changing the future will not look like the past and I think this emification of the US is going to be a trend that's that's going to continue for the foreseeable future so I would expect the dollar continue to weaken and that is going to cause problems for all sorts of US assets from.

事情正在发生变化，未来将不再像过去一样。我认为美国的“东方化”将成为一个持续的趋势，我预计美元将继续走弱，这会对各种美国资产造成问题。

surgeries to equities and of course it's also getting a big boost from say neutral assets like gold which is continues to surge and from latest data suggests it's actually the second largest reserve asset held by central banks right now even more than the euro so that's an interesting trend and to my subscribers if you look at my markets portfolio gold has been my talk for the entire year and it continues to do quite well.

手术与股票，当然，还有像黄金这样的中性资产也在大幅增长。从最新数据来看，黄金实际上是目前央行持有的第二大储备资产，甚至超过了欧元，这是一个有趣的趋势。对我的订阅者来说，如果你查看我的市场投资组合，会发现今年我一直关注黄金，而且它表现得相当不错。

all right so that's all I prepared for this week and I will be back in the middle of next week after the FMC to offer my thoughts all right talk to you all then

好的，这就是我为本周准备的全部内容。我将在下周中旬在FMC之后回来分享我的想法。好的，到时候再聊。