Cybertruck Frunk First Glimpse, New Tesla Energy Company, Price Cuts, Lucid Inventory Growing
发布时间 2023-04-15 01:40:06 来源
Hey everybody Rob Marware here happy Friday. Today we have a little bit of Tesla news. It should be a pretty quick episode though as a relatively light news day. We've got an update on the Cybertruck a little bit of a sneak peek on what the front might look like as well as the wiper in action. Also got price cuts in Europe some news on a new Tesla energy entity and a few other items as well.
嘿，大家好！我是罗布·马尔瓦尔，祝大家周五愉快。今天我们有一些特斯拉的新闻，虽然今天比较轻松，所以这期节目会很快就结束。我们会介绍 Cybertruck 的一些更新，包括前方的样子以及雨刷器的使用情况。此外，欧洲市场的 Tesla 价格有所下调，还有一些新的 Tesla 能源公司的消息，以及其他一些小事。
All right, looking at the stock Tesla today down about half a percent, maybe influence to bit by options closing it exactly $185. Even for the day while the NASDAQ was down about a third of a percent.
好的，看看特斯拉的股票今天下跌了大约半个百分点，可能受到期权平仓的影响，价格恰好为185美元。即使在那一天，纳斯达克下跌了大约三分之一的百分点。
All right, so being Friday we'll start off with the exciting news of the Cybertruck. So Gregor's truck on Twitter here posting a little bit of a, I don't know if this is like a spy shot or if this is coming from doesn't really, doesn't really look like a drone footage shot, but a leaked image here of the Cybertruck doing some wind tunnel testing. And as a part of that, it seemed like they had the front open at least for some short period of time here.
好的，因为今天是星期五，我们将以 Cybertruck 的令人兴奋的新闻开始。 Gregor 在 Twitter 上发布了一些图像，我不确定这是间谍照片还是其他的来源，这看起来似乎不是来自无人机摄影，但这是 Cybertruck 在风洞测试中被泄露的一张图像。而且在测试过程中，至少有一段时间打开了前部的部分。
And we can see based on this shot, I know it is a little bit low resolution, but it looks pretty clearly like there is a hinge there at the base of the windshield. And then it is seeming to include at the entire sort of front bumper there with the headlights and everything as the opening for the front. So if we look at how that compares to the prototype, the production beta prototype that we saw at investor day, shouldn't be too surprising as we had previously talked about pretty significant seams here.
我们可以根据这个镜头看到，我知道分辨率有点低，但它看起来很明显在前挡风玻璃底部有个铰链。然后它似乎将整个前保险杠与前灯一起作为前部的开口。因此，如果我们将其与投资者日看到的生产测试版原型进行比较的话，这不应该令人惊讶，因为我们之前已经谈论过这里存在相当明显的缝隙了。
So basically what we'd be looking at presumably based off of this shot would be this entire section opening up to a huge and glorious front trunk or front for the Cybertruck. That little gap that is there is even a little bit more visible on this other side. Call that a panel panel gap if you want. Again, this is just a beta prototype for Tesla. So shouldn't be too harsh on those things. But as we can see there, you know, that indicates that there may be some opening potential and with this new image, that sure seems like what we're going to get.
基本上，根据这张照片，我们可能会看到整个部分会打开，形成一个巨大而辉煌的前置储物箱或Cybertruck的前部。在另一侧，这个小间隙甚至更加明显。如果你愿意，可以称它为板板间隙。再次强调，这只是特斯拉的测试原型，不要指责它们的缺陷过于严厉。但是，正如我们所看到的，这表明可能存在某些开放的潜力，并且通过这张新的图像，看起来我们确实会得到这些东西。
This would be a similar style to the Ford F-150's front trunk. So I think Tesla, you know, obviously wanting to be on par or even better than their competitive set for their feature set, which is a great thing. And I'm really excited to see this thing in action. This should actually even be if this design is, you know, what we're thinking it is, should actually be even a little bit more room than what the F-150, the Ford F-150 lightning has. So I don't know the cubic foot estimate for that would be, but given the size of the vehicle, there's going to be a lot of room there to store plenty of stuff in addition to the bed of the vehicle. Obviously get the benefit of the weather protection there, even if you don't have the tunnel cover down. So exciting on that.
这将与福特F-150的前置行李箱风格相似。所以我认为特斯拉显然希望与他们的竞争对手在功能上保持同步甚至更好，这是一件好事。我非常兴奋地想看到这个东西的效果。如果这个设计是我们想象的那样，那么它应该比福特F-150 Lightning拥有更多的空间。所以我不知道具体有多少立方英尺，但考虑到这个车辆的尺寸，它会提供足够的空间来存储大量物品，除了车床之外。显然，即使没有关闭隧道盖，也能享受到天气保护的好处。这真是令人兴奋的。
And then for the windshield, we've got a new video from Brad Sloan, did a drone flyover of Gigatexis. And we get to see the windshield wiper in action here. So let's just play that clip. You know, it's a windshield wiper. It's what you would expect, but it is fun to see it in action. A little bit there again in some of that wind tunnel or or weather testing that Tesla's got going on.
然后，我们有一段新的来自Brad Sloan的视频，他用一架无人机飞上了Gigatexis的挡风玻璃部分。我们可以看到雨刷片正在工作中。现在就播放这段视频吧。你知道，这只是一架雨刷，你可能早已预料到，但看到它在工作中还是很有趣的。这段视频里会看到一些在一些风洞或天气测试中的部分。
So you know, I know a lot of people have have pretty significant feelings on the windshield wiper, which we can see on a little bit of a glimpse out here if we go back. But personally, when I saw it in person, I didn't really mind it too much. I think it integrates well with the vehicle. It's got sort of that utility heavy duty look to it that matches the Cybertruck. So you know, it's not something that I minded on the design.
你知道，我知道很多人对车窗雨刷有很强烈的感觉，我们可以从外面的一点视角看到。但是就我个人而言，当我亲眼看到它时，我并不太介意。我认为它很好地与整车相融合。它具有这种实用型、重型外观，与 Cybertruck 相匹配。所以你知道，这对于设计来说并不是我介意的事情。
All right, let's move on from the Cybertruck. Next, we do have pricing changes in Europe. So this follows the price cuts that we talked about in North America a little bit earlier on. And we're seeing a larger range, obviously, Tesla changes prices by country in Europe. So it's a little bit more difficult to cover than just the United States with sort of the universal pricing across the country.
好的，我们不再谈Cybertruck了。接下来，我们在欧洲有价格变动。这是我们早些时候在北美讨论过的价格下调所紧随其后的。显然，特斯拉在欧洲按国家调整价格的范围更大。因此，与在全国范围内实行通用定价的美国相比，这有点难以覆盖。
But we can see a variety of ranges here on Tesla vehicles. We actually have one increase on the long range model Y and Norway, but across the board here from the recap by fun with numbers. We're seeing four to six percent drops most common. And then some of the performance vehicles looks like the performance model three with a little bit more significant cuts, maybe up to nine, 10 percent or so in some countries. But in general, again, looks like probably a four to five percent cut in terms of what it would do to the average selling price on these countries or on these vehicles in these countries.
但是我们可以在特斯拉汽车上看到各种不同的价格范围。实际上，在挪威的长续航版Model Y上我们有一个价格上涨，但从数字的回顾中可以看出，普遍都是4-6%的下降。而一些性能车型，例如性能版Model 3在某些国家则可能有更显著的价值削减，大概在9到10%左右。但总体来说，在这些国家的销售价格平均降低了大概是4到5%。
So probably not too surprising given that we have seen similar pricing changes, you know, first in the United States and then Europe earlier on in the quarter, Tesla kind of keeping these consistent, which makes sense, you know, with production growing rapidly in all markets at this point for Tesla to continue a cut price is when we already know that the backlog isn't that long.
所以，不太惊讶，因为我们已经在本季度早些时候看到了类似的定价变化，首先在美国，然后在欧洲。特斯拉保持这些一致是有道理的，在所有市场中，特斯拉的生产都在快速增长，因此继续降价是合理的，因为我们已经知道积压订单并不长。
So we've talked about, you know, how this is likely to happen. We'll see how this affects things. These aren't the most significant price cuts, although they are decent. Not quite as big as what we saw back in January. So hopefully the backlog will build a little bit. Tesla can keep these prices for a while and then again, as Berlin continues to ramp as Gigatexus continues to ramp. Hopefully Tesla's costs of goods sold are coming down alongside those ramps and that gives them a little bit more room to continue to do this, which as we've talked about, I think we're shifting from this period where Tesla was supply constrained and had really no choice but to capture margin to now a period of time where they're a little bit less like and strain and they're just going to continue to grow production and whatever price the market supports, Tesla will do that. That's going to put a ton of pressure on other automakers to keep up, which we'll actually talk about here in a little bit with Lucid and Rivian.
咱们讨论了一下，你知道这很可能会发生。我们要看看这会对事情产生什么影响。这些不是最显著的价格下调，不过还算不错。比起我们在一月份看到的，还不至于那么大。所以希望堆积的订单会有一点。特斯拉能够保持这些价格一段时间，然后当柏林工厂和Gigafactory不断升级时，他们就可以再次降价。希望随着这些升级，特斯拉的销售成本也在下降，这样他们就有了更多的空间继续这样做。我们已经谈到过，我认为特斯拉正在从供应受限的时期转变为没有那么紧绷的时期，他们只会继续扩大生产，无论市场支持什么价格，特斯拉都会按照这个价格来做。这将对其他汽车制造商施加巨大的压力，稍后我们将在Lucid和Rivian进行讨论。
Aside from that, we do have an update on Tesla Energy. Nothing major here, but Tesla has set up a new energy company in Shanghai. So it's a Tesla subsidiary, nothing that we need to worry about in terms of how the economic value of Tesla products is being captured by some other company here. This is owned by Tesla, but they've set up a new energy company in China, which apparently according to filing its focuses on areas such as technical services, artificial intelligence, basic software development, and energy storage technical services.
除此之外，我们有一些有关特斯拉能源的更新。没有什么大的变化，但是特斯拉在上海建立了一家新的能源公司。所以这是特斯拉的子公司，就经济价值被另外一家公司占用的问题而言，我们没有必要担心。这是特斯拉所有的，但是他们在中国建立了一家新的能源公司，据记录它主要关注技术服务、人工智能、基础软件开发和能源存储技术服务等领域。
The AI portion of that probably things like Audubitor that we've talked about relating to Tesla Energy in the past. The new unit has a registered capital of $2 million, fully funded by Tesla's Hong Kong unit, and the legal representative is Tom's like we have talked about before on different Tesla entities in China. So again, nothing too major to worry about there, but as Tesla gets the megafactory ramped up, I'm sure that this is just sort of a move that Tesla is making in relation to that.
那个AI部分可能类似于我们以前在与特斯拉能源有关的Audubitor所谈到的东西。这个新部门注册资本为200万美元，全部由特斯拉的香港分部提供资金，而法定代表人就像我们以前在中国与特斯拉不同实体上谈到的Tom一样。所以，再次强调，没有什么大问题需要担心，但是随着特斯拉启动超级工厂的步伐加快，我相信这只是特斯拉为此所做的一种举措。
Next just an FYI, Elon is going to be appearing on the Tucker Carlson show on Fox News tomorrow or rather on Monday. Looks like that's going to be 8 PM Eastern times, that'd be 5 PM Pacific time. So we'll see, I think this may be a two-part interview. I think I saw that somewhere, but not 100% sure on that. Elon did comments on this. Of course, we had the BBC interview earlier this week. Well, that I think that was earlier this week. But he said, Elon said, doing interviews across the political spectrum, BBC's SF division is quote unquote left wing as evidenced by the questions he asked. Tucker is quote unquote right wing. Next week, I'll do interviews with Moderate and slightly left media.
明天或者说是周一，埃隆将在福克斯新闻的塔克·卡尔森节目中露面，提醒一下。看起来是美国东部时间晚上8点，也就是太平洋时间下午5点。我觉得这可能是一个分为两部分的采访，但我不确定，可能在哪里看到过。埃隆已经评论了这个节目。当然，这周我们还有了BBC的采访。好像是这周早些时候。但埃隆说，他会在政治光谱的各个方面接受采访，BBC的SF部门是左翼的，从他问的问题可以看出。塔克则是右翼的。下周，我会接受温和和稍微左倾的媒体采访。
So, you know, I think it's hard to argue against that, but obviously people have strong feelings about this one way or the other, but might be wise to at least withhold some of those feelings until the interview does actually happen.
所以，你知道，我认为很难反驳这一点，但显然人们对此有强烈的情感，要么这样要么那样，但最好至少在面试确实发生之前保留一些这些感受。
All right, so that's kind of the Tesla stuff. But we do have an interesting update here from Lucid. They've announced their Q1 production and delivery report essentially.
好的，那就是有关特斯拉的东西。但是我们从Lucid这里收到了一条有趣的更新。他们基本上公布了他们的第一季度生产和交付报告。
So for the first quarter, they produced 2300 vehicles and sold about 1400 vehicles, which without context doesn't mean a whole lot. So let's take a look at that. Blue here is the production for Lucid, basically since the beginning of their production in 2021 towards the end of the year. And then red would be their deliveries.
所以在第一季度，他们生产了2300辆车，销售了约1400辆车，缺乏背景信息，意义不是很大。让我们来看看这个。蓝色是卢西德的生产情况，从2021年生产开始一直到年底。然后红色是他们的交付情况。
The first couple of production numbers here are estimates, particularly that Q4 2021, Q1 and Q2. We did get the first half production numbers. So these and aggregate are correct. Just let's split my, you know, that's just an estimate for me so that might not be exact.
这里的前几个生产数字都是估计值，尤其是2021年Q4、Q1和Q2。我们已经得到了前半年的生产数字。所以这些数字加起来是正确的。只是，我提供的数字只是一个估算，可能不是完全准确的。
But anyway, you can see that throughout 2022. Basically that first, you know, nine months of production, Lucid was tracking pretty closely in terms of sales or delivered vehicles with production. And then starting to get into Q3 last year, inventory really started to build. And you can see it pretty dramatically just visually where the area under these lines would be deliveries in the area between the two lines is growth in inventory. And you're looking at, you know, roughly 50% there.
总之，你可以看到在2022年全年，卢西德生产的前九个月，销售或交付车辆与生产相当接近。而到去年第三季度开始，库存开始大量增加。从视觉上可以明显看到，这些线条下面的面积代表交付量，而两条线之间的面积则代表库存增长。你会发现，增长率大约在50%左右。
So if we look at these Q1 numbers, you're going from 3,500 vehicles produced in Q4 down to 2300 vehicles produced in Q1, which I didn't actually do the math on that ahead of time. But we'll just again do some live math here. And that is going to be a 34% decline in production. And then for deliveries, you've got 1400 deliveries down from 1900 in the last quarter. So deliveries down 28%.
如果我们看一下这些第一季度的数据，你们从第四季度生产的3500辆车降至第一季度的2300辆车，事实上我先前还没有算过这个数。但我们现在就来算一下。这将会是34%的生产下降。而在交付方面，你们有1900辆车，现在降至1400辆车，下降了28%。
Which obviously we've talked about with Tesla with other automakers. So, the control declines in Q1 aren't unusual. But for a company like Lucid that is still, you know, very early in their growth curve, especially as this production trend would indicate to see that sharp of a drop. So, Q1 is definitely a concerning sign, especially when it follows this inventory growth that we just talked about.
显然，我们已经与特斯拉和其他汽车制造商讨论过这个问题。因此，Q1的销量下降并不罕见。但对于像Lucid这样仍处于早期增长阶段的公司来说，尤其是当生产趋势表明出现如此大的下降时，这是一个更为令人担忧的信号。所以，Q1绝对是一个值得关注的信号，特别是在我们刚刚谈到的库存增长之后。
So if you look at the last three quarters in aggregate. So the last nine months or so, Lucid has produced about 8,100 vehicles over that period of time. But they've only delivered 4,700. So they've only delivered 59% of their production over the last nine months or the last three quarters. Inventory right now in aggregate based off of these production and delivery numbers, it's almost 4,000 vehicles.
所以，如果你看过去的三个季度的总和。也就是过去九个月左右，Lucid在那段时间里生产了约8100辆车。但他们只交付了4700辆。所以过去九个月或最近的三个季度里，他们只交付了生产总量的59%。根据这些生产和交付数字，目前的库存总量接近4000辆车。
I got about 3,800 vehicles there, which if you do the same days of supply calculation that we do with Tesla. So taking the quarterly deliveries divided by 75, which is sort of the automotive news recommended or methodology. If you do that calculation for Lucid, you know, that gets us for 16 days of inventory for Tesla. That same count for Lucid puts their inventory right now at 202 days.
我在那里得到了大约3,800辆汽车，如果你按照我们对特斯拉所做的同样供应天数的计算方式进行计算的话。因此，按季度交付量除以75进行计算，这是汽车新闻推荐的方法。如果这样计算卢克索德公司，那么特斯拉的存货量为16天。而按照同样的统计数据计算卢克索德公司的存货，即可得到他们目前的存货量为202天。
And if you are a little bit more forgiving to Lucid on their first quarter numbers and you use their Q4 delivery numbers, it still puts it just above 150 days of inventory. So, now obviously that calculation could be a little bit biased for someone that's a little bit earlier in the ramp where production is outpacing deliveries. But since this has been the case now for nine months, that doesn't really seem to be the case for Lucid at least right now. So, they look to be in a really tough position.
如果你对露骊(Lucid)第一季度的数字稍微宽容一些，并使用他们的第四季度交付数字，那么它的库存时间仍然略高于150天。所以，现在很明显这个计算可能对于那些生产高于交付的初期用户来说有些偏见。但是，由于这种情况已经持续了九个月，至少目前来看，露骊似乎并不符合这种情况。因此，他们看起来处于一个非常艰难的位置。
You know, I think we've talked plenty about that, but with these numbers that it really paints a pretty dire picture for Lucid. Obviously they're burning cash as this is unfolding. They've got support from the Saudi PIF public investment fund that you know should give them a decent runway in terms of cash and continued investment potentially. But you know, this type of a business cannot last for very long. So, it's going to be very interesting to see how that comes back next quarter.
你知道，我感觉我们已经谈得足够多了，但是这些数字真的给卢西德描绘了一个相当可怕的前景。显然，随着事情的发展，他们正在烧钱。他们得到了沙特公共投资基金PIF的支持，你知道这应该能为他们提供足够的现金和持续的投资。但是，这种类型的企业无法持续太久。因此，看下一个季度会有怎样的回应会非常有趣。
It would be interesting to hear their thoughts on the conference call. As a part of the delivery report, they didn't really say any, you know, didn't really give any reason for why production was down so significantly quarter over quarter. So, we'll just have to wait and see, you know, what they say on that.
听听他们对电话会议的看法会很有趣。在交付报告中，他们真的没有说任何东西，你知道的，也没有给出任何原因，解释为什么季度销售额如此显著地下降。所以，我们只能等待并观察，你知道的，看他们会说什么。
Somewhat related we've got is an update here from Alex Potter on Rivian. So, he's actually downgraded Rivian last night. They had an overweight rating before I believe, now downgrading to neutral. Basically saying they think Rivian should trade at book value, they view the upside for Rivian only basically occurring if they can really get to a high volume level of production. But basically saying that if the company only wants to sell 400,000 to 700 vehicles per year, the current vertical integration strategy that they're pursuing might not really be effective at that type of a scale.
我们有一个来自Alex Potter关于Rivian的更新。昨晚他实际上将其评级降级了。我认为他们之前是超重评级，现在下调到中性。基本上他们认为Rivian应该按照账面价值进行交易，他们认为Rivian的上涨空间只有在他们真正达到高产量水平时才可能出现。但是基本上意思是说如果该公司只想销售每年400,000到700辆汽车，那么他们正在追求的当前垂直整合战略可能在这种规模下并不真正有效。
They might just need to get to bigger scale to make that cost effective versus trying to outsource some more things. So, Rivian kind of trying to copy Tesla. And we've talked about that, but, you know, Tesla had the benefit of not having to compete with Tesla. It's lucid, Rivian, all these newer electrifuacal makers, including the legacy automakers for rain to electric vehicles. They've got to compete with Tesla on the market. So, it makes things even that much more difficult, plus just the economic environment that we're in right now.
他们可能只需要扩大规模，使成本更具竞争力，而不是试图外包更多的事情。所以，Rivian有点像模仿特斯拉。我们已经谈论过这个问题，但你知道，特斯拉并没有与特斯拉竞争的劣势。Lucid、Rivian 以及包括传统汽车制造商在内的新兴电动汽车制造商都必须在市场上与特斯拉竞争。所以，这使得事情变得更加困难，还有现在我们处于的经济环境。
So in terms of the book value, talk about that basically saying that they should trade at book value right now. Their forecast for Rivian's capital needs indicate that they might need another $4 billion sort of capital infusion by the end of 2025. So, with the updates on lucid, thought interesting to share that on Rivian today as well.
那么就从账面价值角度来说，基本上讲，它们现在应该按照账面价值进行交易。他们对Rivian资本需求的预测表明，到2025年年底他们可能需要额外的40亿美元资本注入。所以，随着Lucid的最新动态，想今天也分享一下Rivian的情况。
All right, then moving on, we do have a couple of updates on SpaceX, or I think just one major update here on SpaceX. We've been talking about the Starship orbital test flights. A Tesla or SpaceX today did get FAA's approval for their launch license for this test flight.
好的，那么继续说，我们对 SpaceX 有几个更新，或者说只有一个主要的更新。我们一直在谈论Starship轨道试飞。今天，特斯拉或者 SpaceX 已经获得了美国联邦航空局的发射许可证。
So, SpaceX then immediately after this, tweeted out targeting as soon as Monday, April 17th for the first flight test of a fully integrated Starship and Super Heavy rocket from Starbase in Texas. So, we'll see.
所以，SpaceX随即在推特上发布了目标日期，计划于4月17日星期一从位于德克萨斯州的Starbase进行第一次全集成Starship和Super Heavy火箭的飞行测试。我们拭目以待。
All signs so far have pointed to Monday. You know, they're road closure, notices and things like that. But Elon did tweet, I have a feeling it might get delayed three days. Obviously, that would move it to April 20th for 20. So, we'll see. Not sure exactly what date they are really targeting. It seems like Monday, but again, there could be delays even if they're not trying to actually intentionally shift that to April 20th.
到目前为止，所有的迹象都指向周一。你知道，道路封闭通知和其他类似的东西。但是，埃隆（·马斯克）发了推文，他感觉可能会延迟三天。显然，这将把它推迟到20日的4月20日。那么，我们就拭目以待吧。我不确定他们真正瞄准的日期是什么。虽然看起来是在周一，但是，即使他们没有故意将其推迟到4月20日，也可能会出现延误。
All right, and lastly for today, an interesting update from the Wall Street Journal. They have learned that Elon has created a new company called x.aiCorp. It's incorporated in Nevada. The only listed director is Elon, and then Jared Bertchall is, Elon has obviously done a lot of business with over the years, is listed as the entities secretary.
好的，最后一件事情是来自《华尔街日报》的有趣更新。他们得知埃隆创建了一家新公司，叫做x.aiCorp。它在内华达州注册成立。唯一列出的董事是埃隆，然后贾瑞德·伯切尔被列为实体的秘书，显然埃隆多年来与他做了很多生意。
Apparently, they're authorized for sale of a hundred million shares for this company, which, you know, it's just what you do when you incorporate a company, get that share count out there. So, we'll see if, you know, if or what comes of this, with x.aiName and Elon just recently having changed that, Twitter's name to x, you know, xCorp, there seems to be a close correlation in terms of the names there. How much overlap that would, I guess, remain to be seen, but, you know, obviously, we'll try to learn a little bit more about this as times go by.
他们似乎被授权为这家公司销售1亿股，你知道，在公司注册时，这不是很常见的事情吗？我们将需要观察这个情况，因为X.ai的名字和埃隆最近刚刚改成的Twitter名字xCorp，它们的名字之间似乎存在着紧密的关联。得看看它们之间实际上会有多少重叠，显然，我们将在未来了解更多相关信息。
Financial times also had a similar article today, so a couple of entities reporting on this. So definitely something worth keeping an eye on.
今天金融时报也有一篇类似的文章，表示有几个机构对此进行了报道。因此，这绝对值得关注。
All right, that we're up for today. I guess that wasn't quite as quick as I thought it would be, but I hope everyone has a great weekend. And yeah, make sure you subscribe to Inside of for notifications. You can also find me on Twitter at Tesla podcast, and we'll see you on Monday for that Monday, the April 17th episode of Tesla Daily. Thank you.
好了，今天的节目就到这里。估计时间没有我想象的那么快，但我希望大家周末都过得愉快。对了，请务必订阅Inside of，以便收到通知。你也可以在Twitter上找到我，账号名是Tesla podcast。我们下周一再见，4月17日的《特斯拉日报》敬请期待。谢谢。