Okay, so you saw these documents, what was your reaction? And what do they actually look like? I was astounded to see these documents just staring at me face, you know, with the little discord markings of like, oh my god, I've used discord to play Call of Duty and now I'm looking at these classified documents that were just discussed in this open forum.
Alex Horton is a national security reporter for the post. Over the last week, Alex has been looking closely at this trove of documents that contain secrets from the top tiers of the US government. Think classified intelligence briefings, spy strategies, sensitive information about how Ukraine is doing in the war against Russia. And it all took officials by surprise when they first appeared on a discord server, this chat platform typically used by gamers.
Alex Horton 是《邮报》的国家安全记者。在过去一周里,Alex密切关注了这批文件,这些文件包含了美国政府高层的秘密。可以想象,这些秘密包含了机密情报简报、间谍策略,以及有关乌克兰在与俄罗斯的战争中的敏感信息。当这些文件首次出现在 Discord 聊天平台上时,这让官员们感到非常意外,因为这个平台通常是被玩家所使用的。
So I think the reaction was, wow, this is substantial. And then it was, why do these documents look so strange? These are just printout of PowerPoints that you might do after like your college chemistry class. And they're like folded, haphazardly, they're crinkled. There's a coffee table in the background. So obviously someone held them in their hands, took their phone and just started snapping these images that are sort of a skew. It was just one of those.
Yeah, we're in very much a post-modern society where the highest closely guarded secrets of the US government are floating around a server popular for gamers.
是的,我们正在一个后现代社会中,美国政府最高度保密的秘密在一个流行于游戏玩家的服务器上流传。
From the newsroom of the Washington Post, this is Post Reports. I'm your guest host, Libby Casey. It's Wednesday, April 12th. Today, we're talking with Alex about this mysterious leak where it came from and how these intelligence secrets contradict the United States government's narrative about the war in Ukraine.
So Alex, what is in the leaked documents? There's a lot. I took some notes because I had to, I was bound to forget something, but when I walked in here. One of the more interesting things that, again, that we had indications of already was the level of penetration of US intelligence into Russian preparations for the war in Ukraine. Some of the documents talk about preparations that Russia is making for specific attacks, not just the time, but the place and how they will attack, what munitions they'll use, which shows that they are either getting it from human sources or they're intercepting communications that are discussing preparations for an attack.
Can I just pause you there? So human sources were talking spies. We're talking people who are either leaking information from the Russians or who are placed there as spies.
That's right. But that sounds dangerous to release this information because that lets the Russians know that Intel is being gained.
对的。但是公开这些信息听起来很危险,因为这会让俄罗斯人知道情报正在被获取。
That's right. When you hear the jargon sources and methods, that's what you're talking about. You're talking about either people who are close to this information that's providing it to US intelligence officials, or it is a satellite or some sort of interception on radio or cell phones or other communication, maybe a computer network. Why that's important to safeguard is because if the Russians now know there is a vulnerability somewhere, they can go back and say, well, let's go back to who discussed that.
A particular attack in that particular time, reference in the documents and figure out how the Americans or NATO knows about it. That's the danger here and that's why this stuff is so explosive is because Russia and its intel folks can go back and look at, okay, where do we need to plug the holes? Sometimes those holes might be people.
Are there more revelations beyond these kinds of spy strategies? The other one that we've reported on that I've seen myself is the perennial challenges that Ukraine has to sustain itself in a conventional artillery war. They're shooting thousands of rounds a day. They're shooting around every few seconds along the front. It's an incredible industrial effort to keep that war going.
The documents have these counts where they predict when Ukraine will run out of certain munitions, which is a problem. It shows just how important this logistical train that every time the Biden administration says we have a new package going to Ukraine and it has so and so many shells. That is very important to make sure that that is always moving because if it stops, it becomes a big problem for soldiers in the line.
Another enormous, enormous problem here is the Ukrainian ability to sustain its air defense. In the documents, it shows that there are certain munitions that Ukraine has that is provided by the West and when the US intelligence folks assess that they're going to run out of those munitions. There are some direct consequences to that. For example, once the Ukrainians run out of that, they're going to have to prioritize shooting down helicopters and planes. They can't afford to be shooting those drones that cost $20,000 with missiles that are very, very hard to come by. That provides opportunities for the Russians.
Alex, there's also information about other countries in these documents. How does that come into play? Yeah. That's the other side to this sort of diplomatic fallout. My talented colleagues ran a story a few days ago on one of the assessments that Egypt wanted to provide munitions to the Russians.
Egypt is one of the most important partners for the US in the Middle East. There's a long security assistance relationship that's gone on there. US provides a lot of equipment and funds for them. For that to secretly start to unravel a little bit and have this sort of relationship with Russia was important to highlight. That's important to note that they have denied that this occurred. But it goes to show that there are these diplomatic maneuvers that are happening way under the radar that everyone would prefer to keep quiet.
There's been a global focus on the role of China and its relationship with Russia and how China could influence the war in Ukraine. So what about countries like that? There's an interesting sort of contour to that in the documents.
The US has been saying for some time that they didn't want to provide long range munitions to Ukraine, that they can then use to launch into Russia because that would escalate the conflict. And the question was, how would it? Since the beginning of Russia's war on Ukraine, the US has had to navigate wanting to help Ukraine's military without going so far as to provoke Russia into war.
President Biden making that clear. Are you going to send long-range rocket systems to Ukraine? We're not going to send to Ukraine rocket systems that he's striking to Russia. Now we know that one of their assessments is that strikes in Russia with NATO equipment could be then used to justify a widening involvement in China, that they might provide munitions, they might provide other support. That seems to have been the dynamic that the administration didn't really say publicly.
These documents help illuminate some of the public discussions around China, Russia, and Ukraine that the administration has made over the last couple months. In February, Secretary of State Blinken publicly warned China not to get involved in the conflict. This is about the same time when these documents are saying they've intercepted Russian intelligence discussing how China may become involved.
So Alex, what is the US government saying about this? Everything from their awareness of them to the legitimacy of the documents. So when they talk about the documents publicly, they prefer to focus on the investigation on who leaked them. They've launched an investigation on there. They're working with the Justice Department to figure this out. Some national security experts I talked to said the consequences for this person are rather severe. This could be years in prison for whoever leaked it.
I mean, the head of the Intelligence Committee in the House has said they're a traitor. Yeah. We don't know this person's motivation. We don't know if this is to win an online argument about how the war is going. We have no clue to the motivations. They might be a Russian agent. We just don't know. When it comes to the legitimacy of the documents, some of my earlier questions to the Pentagon, after they reviewed them, there did appear to be a manipulation on one of the slides that downplayed Russian losses and artificially inflated the number of estimated Ukrainian losses.
We are on the hunt for other manipulations and the other documents. But I think it's important to note that there are different waves of document releases that when we went in scraped from discord and from users who were in that server, that first batch was unaltered. Once they were bouncing around the internet for a while through Telegram, that's when it appears manipulation happened. There is the original unaltered primary documents I tend to call them. The ones that have been bouncing around. It depends on how upstream or downstream you are in scooping these up.
John Kirby, who's high up in the National Security Council, has said we don't know the extent of the leaks. At this point, do you believe the leak is contained? Are there more documents out there that have not been released publicly? Is this an ongoing threat? We don't know. We're true.
What does that tell you? I think it tells me a couple of things. That they don't have an ability to go out there or maybe not even know where to look. I think it's maybe one issue. I also think that some of these discord servers are private. They can shut down. They can move somewhere else. There is no telling if there's going to be a constant trip trip or if we're just going to find one documents after this that are still bouncing around. There's no telling.
After the break, we dive into the real world consequences of spilling this top secret intel, especially the effects this might have on Ukraine as it fights a grueling war. We'll be right back.
So Alex, how does the information in the documents square with what the US government says about the war in Ukraine and also with what you've seen on the ground because you were just there a few weeks ago?
It's more about how it doesn't square with what the US government is saying about the war in Ukraine.
这更多的是关于它与美国政府在乌克兰战争方面所说的话不一致。
I'm starting to get like Afghan stand vibes from the way that the Pentagon and the Biden administration have been talking about the war.
我开始觉得五角大楼和拜登政府谈论战争的方式有点像阿富汗站的氛围了。
They like to really underline the support in terms of billions of dollars or this critical system or this supply of ammunition, whatever the case may be, whether it's air defense, whether it's tanks, their line has been, we're giving the Ukrainians what they need when they need it through different faces of the war.
That's great. But it really doesn't underline the complexity of front that's hundreds of miles long and an industrial conventional artillery war that is both rooted in a World War I strategy mixed with like, almost like steam punk type weapons.
And why I get these Afghanistan vibes is all the way up until people were falling off of airplanes in Kabul, the US government was talking about how well the Afghan security forces were doing how they were holding the Taliban at bay.
It was just another, you know, we just had to keep on pushing and the strategy was working until everything fell apart.
这只是又一个例子,你知道的,我们只需继续推进,策略一直在奏效,直到一切崩溃。
I get the same feeling here because, you know, I did all my reporting out in Dombass on this, on this rotation.
我在这里有同样的感觉,你知道的,因为在我的那个轮换中,我所有的报道都是在顿巴斯进行的。
We went to visit a artillery battery that was firing missions into, into a buckmoop.
我们去参观一座正在向巴克姆普射击任务的炮兵阵地。
And after a while walking around their position, talking to other soldiers, I was like, where's all the western stuff?
走了一段时间,和其他士兵聊天后,我心想,这里的西方物品在哪里?
Where are the weapons that I've been hearing about for months on this beat?
这个地区几个月以来一直有传言说有武器,它们在哪里?
Surely I can find something and it was more about the absence than my ability to see their effect on the battlefield in what the Ukrainians are saying is the most important consequential part of the entire war.
我一定能找到某些东西,关键在于乌克兰人说的战争最重要的后果部分,而不是我的观察能力。
So when you're out there, you sort of get a more dire and immediate picture on what happens when they don't have the ammunition and the weapons that dependent on it saying it's flowing.
当你在那里的时候,你会更清楚地看到当他们没有弹药和武器的时候会发生什么,因为它们依赖于它的流动。
So freely.
请像中文为母语的人一样自由地翻译以下英文。如有需要,请随意改写。
I talk to a drone operator who was supporting those fired missions.
我和一个支持被解雇的任务的无人机操作员聊过话。
His job is to elevate above the city of Buckmoot, see where those artillery strikes are landing, radio back and say, you need to adjust this way or that way so they can be more accurate.
So it's coming down to like a Chinese Amazon supplied war in this little corner where there are thousands of fatalities on either side.
所以,这就变成了在这个小角落里像中国亚马逊一样的战争,双方都有成千上万的死亡。
And I'm just standing there listening to this and I'm like, can someone get junker be done here and ask, you know, why they aren't getting the stuff that they need?
我就站在那里听着,心里想着,能不能找个废旧物品回收商来,问问他们为什么没拿到他们需要的东西。
When you actually walk the line there, you just kind of like, what's going on?
当你实际在那里走那条线的时候,你就会有点像,这是怎么回事呢?
Am I in the war that I hear about in the briefings or am I in my own earth too where there is actually a supply logistical problem?
我是不是被提要里所提及的战争所困扰,还是在我的地球上,实际上是一个供应物流问题?
And that is all reflected in these documents that they are having these problems with sustainment.
这些文件反映了他们在保持持续的过程中遇到的问题。
So how does Ukraine's military feel about these leaks?
乌克兰军方对这些泄密文件有什么想法呢?
You know, I think the government is upset about it.
你知道吗,我觉得政府对此很不满。
This raises questions about, you know, the trust between, you know, their allies on how they can safeguard this information.
这引发了一些问题,你知道的,关于盟友之间的信任,以及他们如何保障这些信息。
We talked to one official with the Ukrainian Air Force about the air defense issue and they said, you know, look, air defense in this in this conflict is mobile.
我们跟乌克兰空军的一位官员谈了谈防空问题,他们说,这场冲突中的防空是活动的。
We move around these sites.
我们在这些地点四处移动。
So where they are today, they're not going to be tomorrow.
今天他们在哪里,明天他们就不会在那里了。
So that's okay.
所以没问题。
And they didn't dispute that they're running low and that they don't really have a plan to keep them going when their inventory is running low because there isn't any left.
他们没有争议他们的库存不足,并且他们没有一个能让他们继续运营的计划,因为没有剩余的货物。
So they are acknowledging like pieces of the documents, but they are overall downplaying the significance, you know, saying, you know, this doesn't affect our counteroffensive plans.
所以他们承认这些文件像是一些碎片,但是他们总体上避重就轻,你知道的,说这不会影响我们的反攻计划。
We're going to strike where and when we want.
我们会在自己想要的时间和地点发起罢工。
And even if the Russians do the plan, we can change it, you know, at the last minute.
就算俄罗斯人执行这个计划,我们也可以在最后一刻改变,你知道的。
I think Russia is probably trying to figure out where they're going to launch their offensive.
我认为俄罗斯可能正在努力确定他们将在哪里发动攻势。
And, you know, these documents might help them and they might not.
而且,你知道的,这些文件可能会对他们有帮助,也可能没有。
They might have their own understanding based on their own intelligence of what Ukraine might do.
他们可能会根据自己的智力,对乌克兰可能会做什么有自己的理解。
But I think it's important for Ukraine to realize that maybe this is a good reminder that there's a lot of eyes on them from the US, from NATO and Russia and China.
This is a good reminder for them to really clamp down themselves and make sure the right people are reading the right information.
这是一个很好的提醒,让他们严格约束自己,确保正确的人看到了正确的信息。
Alex, where does the story go from here?
亚历克斯,这个故事接下来会发展成什么样?
What's next?
下一步是什么?
When it comes to this kind of information, I think not a lot of it is going to be a surprise to the Russians. They have their own intelligence apparatus. They've been plugged into Ukraine for years. They have their own agents in Ukraine. They might know a lot of this stuff. I think what's important and probably new to them is the US side of the collection.
Russia may come away with these documents and have insights into the way the US gathers information from either people or from secure communications. And maybe they start to address those shortcomings. Address could mean like if they find people who are providing information, you know, they could, they could, you know, jail them, they could kill them. It depends on who they are and what they've provided. They could start to limit access to secret and classified information amongst themselves, which makes it harder for the US to look for it. It makes it harder for the Ukrainian intelligence to gather that information.
So what happens in the search for the leaker? And you just laid out some very real world consequences that could come from these documents. What if it's someone inside the US government? So what is likely happening right now is the Justice Department, depending on other agencies, are probably scouring meetings, schedules to see who had access to these particular documents. These are, look to be pages from a briefing book for the joint staff, which is, you know, General Mark Milley. So that means there's not a tremendously big universe of people that would have access to these. But, you know, once they identified this person, you know, one expert told me, you know, very plainly, they're in for a world of work.
Because I see the consequences as like this sort of like expanding star that will continue to grow because some of the disclosures in these documents affect, you know, different classifications, they reveal different classified programs and abilities of the US that, you know, it's possible that the Russians and maybe the Chinese didn't know about. And now they do. And maybe that gives them pieces to go on.
The Intel world works on pieces like a mosaic. And they put together this thing and that thing. And then after a while, they started to build something that they can stand back and say, okay, now we understand this complete picture. That's why these disclosures can be damaging in ways we can't even anticipate yet. Because these slides and this, the context and the way these things were gathered, this information was put together might be a puzzle piece that the Chinese and the Russians can now go back and look at all the other stuff that they've collected over the years and say, aha, now I understand this better.
英文原文:The Intel world works on pieces like a mosaic. And they put together this thing and that thing. And then after a while, they started to build something that they can stand back and say, okay, now we understand this complete picture. That's why these disclosures can be damaging in ways we can't even anticipate yet. Because these slides and this, the context and the way these things were gathered, this information was put together might be a puzzle piece that the Chinese and the Russians can now go back and look at all the other stuff that they've collected over the years and say, aha, now I understand this better.
中文翻译:情报界的工作有点像拼图。他们把这个碎片和那个碎片组合在一起。然后过了一段时间,他们开始构建一个完整的画面,可以站在远处说:“好的,现在我们理解了整个图片。”这就是为什么这些披露方式可能会造成我们尚未预料到的损害。因为这些幻灯片以及收集这些信息的方式和背景,可能是中国人和俄罗斯人现在可以回头看看他们多年来收集的所有其他东西的一个拼图,他们可以说:“啊哈,我现在更好地理解了这一点。”
Alex, thank you so much for laying this out for us and for bringing your notebook. I can talk to us through it. Yeah, thanks, Lebi, for having me. And yeah, this notebook is continuing to grow. Alex Horton is a National Security Reporter for the Post.
That's it for Post Reports. Thanks for listening. Today's show was produced by Ariel Plotnik. It was edited by Rina Flores and mixed by Sean Carter, thanks to Ben Palker. If you want to show your appreciation for the show, please subscribe to the Washington Post. It's a great way to support the work we do. And you get access to all the incredible reporting our colleagues do every day, including all the latest updates on what these document leaks contain. Go to WashingtonPost.com slash subscribe.