Markets Weekly June 7, 2025

Hello my friends, today is June 7th and this is Markets Weekly. So this past week was a great weekend markets. We had the S&P 500 surge and crossed 6,000. Now looking back on the week, it seems like there were all these little random events that popped up and then disappeared, but in the meantime, it had a notable impact on markets. And of course, there was also some notable data releases as well. So today, first let's talk about the random stuff that is kind of popped up and let's go through some bit of butter stuff like data, tariffs, and central bank decisions.

你好，朋友们，今天是6月7日，这里是《市场周报》。过去的一周对市场来说是一个精彩的周末。标准普尔500指数飙升并突破了6000点。回顾这一周，似乎有很多小的随机事件出现又消失，但同时对市场产生了显著影响。当然，还有一些重要的数据发布。今天，首先让我们来讨论一下那些随机出现的事情，然后再讲一些重要的事情，比如数据、关税和央行决策。

Alright, starting with the random events. Now I can think of three the past week. First off, the week began with a bang as we had news of Ukraine's successful and very cleverly executed drone attack on Russia. So Ukraine was able to smuggle a whole bunch of drones deep into Russia and these drones then kind of leapt out and were able to attack sensitive assets, military assets like Russian bombers that are nuclear capable. Now this of course is a tremendous investment to Russia and also suggests that the Russia Ukraine war is escalating.

好的，首先是随机事件。现在我能想到过去一周发生的三个事件。首先，这一周以一个轰动的消息开始了：乌克兰成功且巧妙地对俄罗斯发动了一次无人机袭击。乌克兰设法将大量无人机偷偷送入俄罗斯内部，然后这些无人机突然出击，对一些敏感的军事资产进行攻击，比如具备核能力的俄罗斯轰炸机。当然，这对俄罗斯来说是一个巨大的损失，也表明俄乌战争正在升级。

Now, day after, President Trump got on a call with President Putin and according to this truth social post from President Trump, it was basically confirming that, yeah, this Russia Ukraine conflict, it's not ending anytime soon, looks like it's getting worse. And of course, President Putin is stating strongly that he's going to have to respond to this attack. So I don't know how, no one knows the time or the place, but now sometime maybe in the near future, there's probably going to be a strong military response from Russia on Ukraine. So that's probably some risk off event that's going to happen sometime in the future.

现在，第二天，特朗普总统与普京总统进行了通话。根据特朗普总统在社交平台上的发文，通话基本确认，俄乌冲突短期内不会结束，情况似乎正在恶化。当然，普京总统也强烈表示，他将对这次攻击作出回应。虽然没人知道具体的时间和地点，但可能在不久的将来，俄罗斯会对乌克兰采取强有力的军事行动。这可能会在未来某个时候成为一个避险事件。

Now the second random event was of course ongoing tariff chatter. Now President Trump maybe trying to show the world he's not a taco, double to steal one aluminum tariff's to 50%. Now if you look at a chart of where we actually import an aluminum from, it's largely from Mexico and Canada, basically the people that President Trump, that can't really fight back too much. So, you know, I'm not quite sure if it had that much of an impact.

现在，第二个随机事件当然是持续的关税讨论。特朗普总统可能试图向世界展示他并不是个软弱之人，他将铝关税提升到50%。如果你查看我们从哪里实际进口铝，大多是从墨西哥和加拿大进口，基本上是那些无法对特朗普总统有太大反击能力的国家。所以，我不太确定这会产生多大的影响。

Now there were also rumors that the White House was asking other countries to cement their best trade-offs offer to the White House by last Wednesday. Seemingly they try to put it into all this tariff stuff. My sense is that all this tariff stuff is just going nowhere and the White House is kind of tired of it. Now President Trump also had a call with President Xi of China to talk about trade. No, the impetus of this was of course President Trump is upset that China seems to be slow walking some of its rear-earth exports to the U.S. and that's affecting U.S. manufacturing.

现在有传言说，白宫要求其他国家在上周三之前提交给白宫他们最好的交易提议。 他们似乎是想把所有关税相关的事情解决掉。我觉得这些关税问题根本没有进展，而白宫也有点厌倦了。现在，特朗普总统还与中国国家主席习近平进行了通话，谈论贸易问题。原因当然是特朗普总统对中国似乎在故意放慢一些稀土出口到美国的速度感到不满，这影响到了美国的制造业。

The outcome of the call was positive and China is reportedly loosening its export restrictions to other earths, to U.S. auto manufacturers. And President Trump also noted that he's going to go to China and meet President Xi in person. So, hopefully they will iron something out. But we'll see. It looks really like Trump is continuing to be a taco man.

通话结果是积极的，据报道中国正在放宽对稀土出口的限制，特别是对美国汽车制造商的出口。而且，特朗普总统还表示，他将亲自前往中国与习近平主席会面。希望他们能解决一些问题。但我们拭目以待。目前看来，特朗普似乎在继续扮演“出招不凡的人”的角色。

Okay. And the last random thing that happened the past week was of course the Musk Trump spat. Seemingly roughing it out of nowhere. Now, as we all know, Musk was pretty close to President Trump in the early days of administration. Indeed, Musk was a huge supporter of President Trump during the campaign. Musk controls the X-Pot form. Has a ton of money. And of course, is a titan in the tech world.

好的。上周发生的最后一件随机事件当然是马斯克与特朗普之间的争执。看起来像是无缘无故发生的。我们都知道，马斯克在特朗普任期初期与他关系相当密切。实际上，马斯克在竞选期间非常支持特朗普。马斯克掌控X平台，拥有巨额财富，自然也是科技界的大亨。

So I personally don't think President Trump would have won without the help of Elon. Again, social platform huge. Again, making it acceptable for other tech people to go and support Trump huge. And of course, Elon gave a lot of money to the Republican Party. So this kind of dispute I think is somewhat surprising and also disappointing. Now President Trump is suggesting that he would pull federal contracts from Elon's companies and of course, is making very bold accusations against Trump.

所以，我个人认为如果没有埃隆·马斯克的帮助，特朗普总统可能不会获胜。再次强调，社交平台的影响力很大。其次，马斯克使得其他科技界人士支持特朗普变得更加可以接受。当然，埃隆也为共和党提供了大量资金。因此，我认为这种争端有些出人意料，也让人感到失望。现在，特朗普总统暗示他可能会取消埃隆公司获得的联邦合同，并且当然，埃隆也对特朗普做出了非常大胆的指控。

Now this would have affected you a lot if you are an investor in Tesla because Tesla totally taint on Thursday, dragging down the major indexes. Now honestly, this all looks kind of emerging market like where the government is met at you when then goes after you. So this is definitely something that challenges the rule of law in the US. And if you are a company or investor, it's very unsettling because one day for whatever reason the government can just come after you.

现在，如果你是特斯拉的投资者，这件事会对你产生很大影响。因为特斯拉在星期四大幅下跌，拖累了主要股指。老实说，这看起来有点像新兴市场的现象，政府可能会因为不满而对你采取行动。这无疑对美国的法治构成挑战。对于公司或投资者来说，这是非常不安的，因为政府可能会因为某种原因随时对你采取行动。

So definitely long term, not good for the United States. And hopefully they will patch things up. Now if you look at the history of Trump over the past decade, these things are not uncommon, right? A lot of people enter Trump's orbit, they get into disagreements and they leave and then you people come in totally normal. And sometimes, sometimes people leave and they even come back. So friends can become enemies and enemies can become friends again. So hopefully, hopefully this is just going to blow over. Does seem that there is some degree of deescalation on Friday. All right, that's all the run events. I just kind of popped up out of nowhere and I'm sure in the Trump term, we will continue to have many run events like this.

所以，从长远来看，这对美国不利。希望他们能解决问题。如果你回顾过去十年特朗普的历史，这种情况并不少见，对吧？很多人进入特朗普的圈子，与他发生争执然后离开，然后新人再加入，这是很正常的。有时候，人们离开后甚至会回来。所以朋友可以变成敌人，敌人也可以再次变成朋友。希望这次的事情也会平息下来。看起来周五确实有一些缓和的迹象。好吧，这些就是所有的动态事件，我也只是突然关注到这件事，并且我相信在特朗普的任期内，我们仍会看到许多类似的事件。

Now looking at the more concrete stuff, let's start with the big jobs market report we got on Friday. Now the non-forms peer report was better than expected, but only a little bit better than expected, right? So looking zooming out and looking at the trend of jobs created, it's a very clear trend of de-scaleration. And this is normal. We economy obviously is moderating and more importantly, there's less immigration. So if you have less population growth, you're going to have less job growth, totally normal. Now there's really nothing wrong with this jobs report. If you look at the details though, it's also fine. So looking at, for example, wait real, better than expected, pretty solid. I don't really think it's going to be inflationary, but better than expected.

现在来看一些更具体的内容，我们从周五发布的大型就业市场报告开始。非农就业报告的结果比预期稍好，但只比预期好一点，对吧？所以，如果从更广的角度来看，就业增长的趋势很明显是在减速。这是正常的。我们的经济显然在放缓，更重要的是移民减少了。所以如果人口增长减少，工作增长也会减少，这是完全正常的。实际上，这份就业报告没有任何问题。查看细节也是如此。例如，薪资增长比预期更好，非常稳健。我认为它不会引发通货膨胀，但确实比预期要好。

Unemployment rate still 4.2% unchanged. The labor force participation rate did go a bit lower though. So all in all, it was a totally okay jobs report. Now what surprised me was how strong the market reacted to this. So we have this okay jobs report, stocks surge, bond youths surge and the dollar surges as well. Now looking at what the market is pricing. Now the market is only actually pricing in a little bit less than two cuts this entire year. So it could be that many investors were positioned for a very poor report and just an average report caught them off size. I'm not sure, but it does seem like this was a pretty strong reaction. And what it tells you is that the labor market is moderating but really, really not cracking.

失业率依然保持在4.2%不变。不过，劳动力参与率略有下降。所以，总的来说，这是一份还不错的就业报告。不过，让我感到意外的是，市场对这份报告的反应如此强烈。就业报告表现还不错，股票飙升，债券收益率飙升，美元也大幅上涨。现在来看看市场的预期。市场实际上只预期今年将减少不到两次降息。可能很多投资者本以为报告会非常糟糕，结果一份普通的报告让他们措手不及。我不太确定，但这确实看起来是一个相当强烈的反应。而这表明劳动力市场在趋向稳定，但绝对没有崩溃。

So the trend though, of course, unemployment rate continues to move higher and headline employment numbers continue to moderate, not recession, not recession at all right now. Separately I want to talk a little bit about this really interesting study from the New York Fed. Now the New York Fed, of course, we're all wondering what tariffs mean to profits, to inflation and to the economy, like economic growth. So the New York Fed, the survey of companies in the New York City area on how they are reacting to tariffs. Now interestingly, they're showing that looking at the survey that a sizeable number, I'd say most companies are passing through tariffs to their consumers in some form.

当然，尽管失业率持续上升，整体就业数据有所放缓，但目前的情况并不是衰退。接下来，我想聊一下纽约联邦储备银行的一项非常有趣的研究。我们都很好奇关税对利润、通货膨胀和经济增长意味着什么。纽约联邦储备银行对纽约市地区公司的调查显示，大部分公司，或者说多数公司，以某种方式将关税成本转嫁给了消费者。

A chunk are actually passing all of the tariffs, pricing increases to their consumers and a smaller chunk are not passing on any. And in the middle you have gradations. So already, even though this is, this terrible thing is pretty new, we already see companies responding to this. Now this survey was conducted in the first week of May and of course since then there's been a lot of changes. So these responses could have changed as well. Now interestingly, if you look at this falling survey, you'll see that one of the things that these companies are noting is that they're actually buying more American products to evade tariffs. So in that sense, this tariff policy really is helping American businesses that are domestic producers.

有一部分公司实际上将所有关税和价格上涨都转嫁给了消费者，而较小的一部分公司则没有转嫁任何成本。在两者之间，还有不同程度的做法。因此，即使这项政策还很新，我们已经看到公司在作出反应。这个调查是在五月的第一周进行的，自那之后发生了很多变化，因此这些公司的回应也可能有所变化。有趣的是，如果你查看后续的调查，会发现一些公司表示，他们正在购买更多的美国产品以避开关税。从这个角度来看，这项关税政策确实帮助了美国的国内生产企业。

Now whether or not it's going to be enduring, I think it is going to be depending on the expectations of how long these tariffs last. If these tariffs are only temporary, it's not going to result in the rein industrialization of the US. But if everyone expects this to go on forever, then maybe those domestic manufacturers will be willing to put down longer-term investments to be able to produce more goods and services in the US. So again, being able to convince the business world that these tariffs are going to be here for the indefinite future is going to be crucial to encouraging domestic businesses to continue to invest and produce in the US.

现在，这种情况是否会持久，我认为将取决于对这些关税持续时间的预期。如果这些关税只是暂时的，不会导致美国的再工业化。但如果大家都认为这些关税会永远存在，那么国内制造商可能会愿意进行长期投资，以便在美国生产更多商品和服务。因此，再次强调，能够让商界相信这些关税会无限期存在，对鼓励国内企业继续在美国投资和生产至关重要。

And one other thing that's interesting about the survey is of course there's some impact on profits and also even though even those not all goods were tariffed, these companies are also taking the time to raise prices on items that are not affected by tariffs. Now the survey seems to suggest that no companies are maybe making a little bit less money on things that are subject to tariffs and just trying to make up that lost profit by increasing goods that really aren't affected by tariffs at all. So and you could think of it as an opportunistic way to raise prices which we did see in the time of COVID as well. So that was a pretty interesting finding. Again, this is only in the New York City area and we have a big country so other companies may respond differently.

这项调查的一个有趣之处是，当然对利润有一定影响。即使并非所有商品都被征收关税，这些公司也利用机会提高了不受关税影响的商品的价格。调查显示，也许有些公司在被征收关税的商品上赚的钱减少了，但通过提高完全不受关税影响的商品价格来弥补利润损失。这可以被视为一种趁机涨价的方法，就像我们在疫情期间看到的那样。这是一个相当有趣的发现。不过，这项调查仅在纽约市地区进行，而我们的国家很大，其他地方的公司可能会有不同的应对方式。

And of course the tariff situation is fluid. This is done in early May. And the last thing that I want to talk about is the ECB meeting. So this past week we had a meeting from the ECB and Madame Lagarde on lower interest rates and it seems to suggest that they are very close to the end of the rate cutting cycle. I said I think that with today's cut and the current level of interest rates, number one I think we are getting to the end of a monetary policy cycle that was responding to compounded shocks including COVID including the war in Ukraine, the illegitimate war in Ukraine and the energy crisis.

当然，关税情况是不断变化的。这是五月初的情况。我要谈的最后一个话题是欧洲央行（ECB）的会议。上周我们参加了欧洲央行和拉加德女士的会议，讨论了降低利率的议题。此次会议似乎表明，利率削减周期已经接近尾声。我认为，随着今天的降息和当前的利率水平，我们正在接近一个货币政策周期的终点。这个政策周期原本是为了应对一系列复杂的冲击，包括新冠疫情、乌克兰的战争——不合法的战争，以及能源危机。

Now that stands in contrast to the third which as I think we all anticipate still has some ways to go. So why is the ECB ending their rate cutting close ending their rate cutting cycle? Well based on the data it seems like inflation is actually going to be falling below their target in the coming year. Now Madame Lagarde is noting that energy prices have been pretty low and again energy is a big part of European Union inflation since they import it and also the euro has strengthened a lot.

现在，这与第三种情况形成了鲜明对比，正如我们所预期的，第三种情况仍有一段路要走。那么，为什么欧洲央行要结束其降息周期呢？根据数据显示，通货膨胀似乎将在来年低于他们的目标。拉加德女士指出，能源价格一直都很低，而能源是欧盟通货膨胀的一个重要组成部分，因为他们依赖进口。此外，欧元也大幅升值。

So that's also both reducing import costs but also making their export sector a little bit less competitive. So with tariffs on the horizon and a lot of business uncertainty and inflation expected to actually fall below 2% next year, the ECB is becoming a bit more cautious. So there's no need to keep rates high because inflation is falling below 2%. But then we're not really sure about the economic conditions and so not really sure how much they cut.

因此，这不仅降低了进口成本，还使他们的出口行业的竞争力略有下降。由于关税的可能性、商业的不确定性以及预计明年的通胀率将降至2%以下，欧洲央行变得更加谨慎。因为通胀率低于2%，就没有必要保持高利率。但是，我们对经济状况不太确定，所以也不确定他们会降息多少。

So the market is pricing in just one more ECB cut this year and then we'll see what happens. Now the euro strengthens significantly on this news because now the thinking is that with the ECB almost done and the Fed on pause and probably going to cut later on in the year, the interest rate differentials are going to close going forward. Again, this is all super preliminary but it seems like even as the Fed is not kind of on this long pause, other central banks that moved first and more steadily are almost done with their rate cutting cycle.

市场预计今年欧洲央行只会再降息一次，然后我们会再看看接下来的发展情况。现在，欧元因为这个消息大幅走强，因为市场的想法是，随着欧洲央行接近完成降息周期，而美联储暂停加息，并可能在今年晚些时候降息，未来利率差距将会缩小。再次强调，这一切都还只是初步的观察，但看起来即便美联储不像是长期暂停，其他先前更快、更稳定采取行动的央行已经几乎完成了它们的降息周期。

All right, so that's all I prepared for today. Oh, one other random news that happened of course was on the regulatory front. World's Fargo was released from their asset. Asset kept that's been imposed on them since 2018. So I'll write about that and what that might imply for credit creation and the banking sector in the US. So that's what prepared for today. Talk to you all next week.

好的，这就是我今天准备的全部内容。哦，还有一个随机的新闻当然是关于监管方面的。富国银行被解除资产限制了，这个限制自2018年以来一直对他们生效。我会写一写这件事以及它可能对信贷创造和美国银行业的影响。今天准备的就是这些了。下周再和大家聊。