Markets Weekly May 31, 2025

Hello my friends, today is May 31st and this is markets weekly. So this past week was a shortened holiday trading week but man it was totally packed with excitement and it all began even before markets opened Tuesday morning. Now over the long weekend, Preston Vandalion of the European Union caught Preston Trump and together they worked out some kind of temporary truth when it comes to trade. Now remember last week Preston Trump told the world that he would impose a 50% tariff on the EU because he was not happy with trade progress. So over the weekend, they managed to delay the implementation of that tariff to several weeks beyond the initial deadline all the way until July 9th, giving the EU and the US plenty of time to work something else. Now the markets really like that news and totally surged.

你好，朋友们，今天是5月31日，欢迎收看《市场周报》。过去这一周是个缩短的假期交易周，但真是充满了惊喜，而这一切还在周二早市开盘前就开始了。在长周末期间，欧盟的普雷斯顿·范德里恩和普雷斯顿·特朗普达成了一项临时协议，涉及到贸易问题。记得上周普雷斯顿·特朗普对外宣布，因为对贸易进展不满，他将对欧盟征收50%的关税。经过这个周末，他们设法将关税的实施延迟了好几周，直到7月9日，这给欧盟和美国提供了充足的时间来寻找其他解决方案。市场对这一消息非常欢迎，并大幅上涨。

Now later on in the week, markets got another positive piece of news on the trade front. A US trade court basically said no to Preston Trump's reciprocal tariffs and the markets surged again on that, although notably faded. So this week was all about trade talk news. So today let's talk about that legal ruling and why that's really never going to matter in this context. So there will be tariffs. And secondly, why based on the things that we're seeing, trade talks really are not going well and maybe the president is going to have to do something drastic.

在本周晚些时候，市场收到了另一个关于贸易方面的好消息。美国贸易法院基本上否决了普雷斯顿·特朗普的对等关税政策，市场因此再次大涨，尽管涨势后来有所消退。因此，本周的重点都在于贸易谈判的消息。今天我们来谈谈这个法律裁决以及为什么在这个背景下它其实并不重要。所以关税还是会存在。其次，根据我们看到的情况，贸易谈判实际上进展不顺，可能总统会采取一些激烈措施。

Okay, starting with the legal ruling. So Congress has power over tariffs and stuff like that, but a few decades ago they delegated it to the president. And the president and does it make the law, executes the law, has a wide range of tools through which he can use trade policy. So for example, he can do something called a section 2, 3, 2 tariff where they do a long month, a couple months study, maybe more on a particular sector and finding that that study through that study that foreign countries are not behaving well on the trade, they can do something about it.

好的，先从法律裁决开始。国会有权制定关税和类似事务的政策，但几十年前，他们将这项权力委托给了总统。总统的职责是执行法律，而不是制定法律，并且他有多种工具来运用贸易政策。例如，他可以使用所谓的第232条关税措施。他们可能会对某个特定行业进行为期一个或几个月的深入研究，如果研究发现外国在贸易上表现不佳，他们可以采取相应的措施。

Now the section 2, 3, 2 tariff rolled out in aluminum, steel, autos and that's the basis for those tariffs. However, another tool the president has is something called AIPA. So in that case, the president can declare an emergency and the president has a lot of leeway, a lot of discretion to declare an emergency. And once we're in a state of emergency, he can use all these tariffs.

现在，第232条款在铝、钢铁和汽车领域生效，这就是这些关税的基础。不过，总统还有另一种工具，叫做AIPA。在这种情况下，总统可以宣布紧急状态，并且在宣布紧急状态时，总统拥有很大的自由裁量权。一旦进入紧急状态，他就可以使用所有这些关税。

Now some people obviously are not happy with tariffs, challenge them and the trade, the US trade court is saying that yeah, you know, this reciprocal tariff stuff, AIPA powers, this doesn't make sense and so no. Now the president was obviously they're upset about this, impaled, but and also talking about all sorts of other things they can do about it. Now they've been some many smart people who are saying that yeah, this tariff thing, it's going to blow over because the courts will find it to be illegal and it will be game over.

现在有些人显然对关税不满，对它们和贸易提出了质疑，美国贸易法院表示这些互惠关税的做法，以及《国际紧急经济权力法》的使用，都没有道理，因此不行。目前，总统显然对此感到不悦，非常失望，同时也在讨论他们可以采取的其他各种措施。有很多聪明的人认为，这个关税问题会慢慢平息，因为法院会裁定它非法，然后就结束了。

But I really think that misunderstands on a very fundamental way just how the world works and the era that we're in. Now I think to better understand this, we should have some more historical context. So I want to talk about a couple, US presidents that are very similar to Trump and also had clashes with the courts. So let's talk a little bit about Andrew Jackson, president Andrew Jackson who was president during the 1820s and president Roosevelt who was president during the 1930s.

但我真的认为，这在一个非常根本的层面上误解了这个世界的运作方式以及我们所处的时代。现在，我认为为了更好地理解这一点，我们应该有一些更多的历史背景。因此，我想谈谈几位与特朗普很相似的美国总统，他们也与法院发生过冲突。让我们来聊聊安德鲁·杰克逊总统，他在1820年代担任总统，以及罗斯福总统，他在1930年代担任总统。

So president Jackson was someone who was basically a populist and by populist I mean someone who drew his, his drew his movement from people who are maybe lower income, less educated. We won with poorly educated, I love the poorly educated. And he identified with people who were basically common men and he would rail against the leads, the educated people, the wealthy people, people in the big cities and so forth.

因此，杰克逊总统基本上是一个民粹主义者。这里的民粹主义者指的是他从收入较低、教育程度较低的人群中获取支持。他赢得了受教育程度不高的人群的支持，我喜欢受教育程度不高的人。他与普通大众站在一起，反对精英阶层、受过高等教育的人、富人、大城市的居民等等。

And he's president, he came at a time when there was great change in the world. The big change from a suffrage point of view was that in the beginning, in the US, the only people who could vote were people who were basically men who owned land. Now during Andrews, the few years, the decades, couple decades preceding Andrew Jackson's presidency, that was being reformed such that all men could vote.

他是总统，在他上任的时候，世界正发生巨大的变革。从选举权的角度来看，最大的变化是，最初在美国，唯一有投票权的人基本上是拥有土地的男性。然而，在安德鲁·杰克逊总统任期前的几十年里，这种情况正在被改革，使得所有男性都可以投票。

And so suddenly you had a huge change in the composition of the electorate, whereas you had all these people who were not landowners and suddenly they could vote. And these guys obviously were less well off and you know you can think of them as the common man. And so Andrew Jackson appealed to those people and fashioned himself as a populist and he himself was from very humble origins, though of course a war hero and ultimately did become wealthy.

于是，选民的构成发生了巨大的变化。以前，那些不是土地拥有者的人现在突然有了投票权。这些人大多经济条件较差，可以说是普通百姓。因此，安德鲁·杰克逊吸引了这些人，并将自己塑造成民粹主义者。他本人也出身卑微，尽管后来成为了战斗英雄，最终也积累了财富。

So he would, you know, some of the things that he would do was that he would have these mass rallies and he would make them to be festive events when people would come. It would be pretty chaotic, but you know you'd have barbecue, you'd have alcohol, you know, honestly just like a Trump rally. And his people would just be the people that honestly were not very high status people. And he would, his signature policies that we remember from all the time were things like getting rid of the central bank. Now before we had the federal reserve, we had the Bank of the United States. Now Andrew Jackson was like, you know, this bank there, secret of organization, helping rich people with using funny money and all that, you know, that's not good. So I want to destroy it. And so and to Jackson really tried very hard and did destroy the bank of the United States.

他会举办一些大型集会，并让这些活动变得像节日一样热闹，吸引很多人前来。场面通常相当混乱，但会有烧烤和酒水供应，说实话，就像特朗普的集会一样。而聚集的人多是社会地位不高的人。他最为人们记住的标志性政策之一就是废除中央银行。在联邦储备系统成立之前，我们有一个叫“美国银行”的机构。安德鲁·杰克逊认为这个银行是一个神秘的组织，帮助富人使用不可靠的资金，而这并不好。他决意要摧毁它，并且他确实非常努力地成功摧毁了美国银行。

Now when he's doing all these changes, obviously there's going to be a lot of backlash. There are people who have entrenched interest and so forth. And so that made him unpopular with some parts of the public. Now one of his most memorable things was his defiance of the Supreme Court. Now back then the United States was smaller than it is today. And there was a lot of Cherokee land. So Indian land that was sprinkled out in the US. Now the state of Georgia is basically trying to take over some of the Indian land and give it to their own people. Now the Supreme Court ruled against that and said that, you know, that's illegal by treaties and so forth, that land is belongs to the Indian land. And the Supreme Court was totally correct on that.

现在，当他实施这些变革时，显然会遭到很多反对。有些人有既得利益等等。因此，这让他在部分公众中不受欢迎。他最令人难忘的事情之一就是他对最高法院的藐视。那时候，美国的领土比现在要小得多，有很多切诺基人的土地，也就是印第安人的土地，散布在美国境内。乔治亚州试图接管一些印第安人的土地并将其分给他们自己的人。最高法院对此作出了反对的裁决，认为根据条约等，这样做是非法的，那些土地属于印第安人。最高法院的判决完全是正确的。

Now that being said, President Jackson saw that ruling and memorably, again, I don't know, we don't know if he actually said this, but it's not going to extend that. Well, you know, Chief Justice Marshall, you made this ruling. Why don't you go enforce it yourself, right? But of course, the Justice System doesn't have an army, doesn't have a police force, but they can't do anything about it. And so what actually happened was that the Indians were forcibly removed from their lands. And it was actually an event called the Trail of Tears, which was very sad. And they were forcibly removed from their lands and moved farther westward to Oklahoma. And that land was given to other people.

话虽如此，杰克逊总统看到了这个裁决，并且人们记得他说过这句话，当然我们不确定他是否真的说过："好吧，首席大法官马歇尔，你做出了这个裁决，那么你为什么不自己去执行呢，对吧？" 当然，司法系统没有军队，也没有警察力量，所以他们对此无能为力。因此，实际发生的事情是印第安人被强行从他们的土地上驱逐，这一事件被称为“血泪之路”，非常悲惨。他们被迫离开自己的土地，搬到更西边的俄克拉荷马，而这些土地则分配给了其他人。

So here is a present of the United States just defying the Supreme Court and that happened. Why? Because President Jackson, super popular. And when you are the government, you are powered, derives, and not from, you know, what some random guy says far away in Washington, D.C., but by popular support in President Jackson understood that. Now secondly, let's talk about President Franklin Delino Roosevelt, who was present during the 1930s. Now at that time, as we all know, it was the Great Depression. Unemployment rate was as high as 25%. It was a time of great misery.

以下是这段文字的中文翻译： 美国的一位总统竟然敢无视最高法院，这种事情确实发生过。为什么呢？因为当时的总统杰克逊非常受欢迎。当你是政府的一部分时，你的权力并不是来源于远在华盛顿特区某个不相干的人说什么，而是来自于民众的支持，杰克逊总统明白这一点。接下来，我们来谈谈曾在20世纪30年代任职的富兰克林·德拉诺·罗斯福总统。众所周知，那时正值大萧条，失业率高达25%，是一个极度困难的时期。

Now Franklin Delino Roosevelt was also a populist and he, his source of support was what he would call the forgotten men. So basically all these people who were, you know, suffering or ordinary people and he would, you know, harness their support against, you know, against the elites. And so what he was trying to do was he was trying to embark upon a very large project of redistribution. And so he was during this era where he massively raised income tax, massively, even creating what many thought then as a wealth tax and then took that money and built all sorts of public works programs and things like social security and so forth.

富兰克林·德拉诺·罗斯福也是一位民粹主义者，他的支持来源于他所谓的“被遗忘的人”。简单来说，就是那些正在受苦或普通大众的人们。他利用他们的支持来对抗精英阶层。他试图进行一个非常大规模的再分配项目，在这个过程中，他大幅提高了所得税，甚至创立了当时许多人认为的财富税。他用这些资金建设了各种各样的公共工程项目和社会保障等计划。

And so he was basically fundamentally changing how the system worked. Now the Supreme Court of that time was not supportive of his actions, basically saying that what he was doing was illegal. And to be clear, they were totally correct. Now the United States initially was built on a very, on the belief of a small government. So you would have a federal government and you would also have state and local governments. Now since the beginning, the federal government was actually supposed to be a very weak political entity and the power was supposed to largely reside within the states. In fact, in that era, when they tried to pass laws to mandate seatbelts for cars, now they couldn't do that because it was ruled that the federal government did not have the power to mandate seatbelts for the country. So the federal government at that time was not powerful.

他基本上从根本上改变了系统的运作方式。当时的最高法院并不支持他的行动，基本上认为他所做的是非法的。需要说明的是，他们的判断完全正确。美国最初是建立在小政府信念上的，这意味着有一个联邦政府，同时也有州和地方政府。从一开始，联邦政府本应该是一个很弱的政治实体，而权力主要集中在各州。事实上，在那个时代，他们试图通过法律强制要求汽车安装安全带，但无法实现，因为裁定联邦政府没有权力在全国范围内强制要求安装安全带。因此，那个时候联邦政府的权力并不强大。

And Franklin Delina Roosevelt was basically remaking the system to make the federal government powerful as a way to meet the emergencies of that time. And he was very astute in that he would every week engage in these weekly fireside chats using radio, which was a new technology at that time to build a relationship with the public to let them know what they were doing and of course to earn their trust and support. So Franklin Delina Roosevelt obviously was popular among the public, but again, among the elite. Again, he was not popular because of course he was threatening their interests. Now to be clear, FDR himself was born from a very wealthy family and this elite persona, this populist persona maybe was just manufactured, I don't know. But again, you can see parallels today with President Trump who despite being a populist, identifying with the working class blue collar people is a billionaire and of course very adept at using new media like Twitter.

富兰克林·德拉诺·罗斯福基本上是在重塑体制，以增强联邦政府的力量来应对当时的紧急情况。他非常聪明，每周都会通过广播进行炉边谈话，广播当时是一项新技术，通过这种方式与公众建立关系，让他们了解政府在做些什么，从而获得他们的信任和支持。因此，罗斯福在公众中显然很受欢迎，但在精英阶层中却不受欢迎，因为他威胁到了他们的利益。需要说明的是，罗斯福本人出身于一个非常富有的家庭，他的平民形象可能是伪装出来的，我不太确定。不过，我们可以看到他与特朗普总统有一些相似之处，特朗普尽管自称是平民主义者，与工薪阶层打成一片，但他本身还是个亿万富翁，并且非常善于使用像推特这样的新媒体。

So when FDR was doing all these big changes, obviously people were unhappy and the Supreme Court was threatening to put an end to it. And so what did FDR do? Well, it was like well, Supreme Court, okay. Well you guys are voting against me. Okay, how many justices do you have there? Okay. I add some more justices to put my own people on the court. In fact, I'll keep putting people on my court until we get enough votes to pass. How about that? And that is obviously a significant constitutional crises and that was really impact his political capital. But the end result was that the Supreme Court backed down and allowed his programs to proceed and allowed him to fundamentally remake the American government.

当时，FDR（罗斯福总统）进行了一系列重大变革，显然这让一些人感到不满，而最高法院也威胁要终止这些变革。那么FDR怎么做呢？他采取了一种做法：最高法院，好嘛，你们反对我，那好吧，你们这里有多少位大法官？好，我就增加一些大法官，把我自己的人放进法院里。实际上，我会不断往法院里塞人，直到我们有足够的票数通过我的政策。这样做显然引发了一场重大的宪政危机，也对他的政治资本产生了影响。但最终的结果是，最高法院退缩了，允许他的政策继续推进，并让他能够从根本上重塑美国政府。

Now I say these two examples because I think of Trump as very much another person who was trying to remake the global world order. Now this happens every now and then. The US is a very dynamic political system. But you know, President Trump is identifying with the common men, many who have few that things are not going well. And he's challenging the current elite, economic interests and so forth and he's trying to remake the world. Right now what we're seeing for example is that he is systematically trying to dismantle Harvard University, one of the actually probably the most prestigious university in the entire world. Cutting their funding and trying to mess with their admissions process and so forth. And what really surprises me is that no one is standing up and trying to defend Harvard. You have this bastion of the elite and no one is standing up to them. And I think this is consistent with what we see throughout. Polling is that the broader public does not have as much confidence in our institutions as they did in the past. And so they are okay with them being dismantled or changed and kind of how President Trump came to power to begin with.

现在我提到这两个例子，是因为我认为特朗普也是一个试图重塑全球秩序的人。这种情况时不时会发生。美国是一个非常动态的政治体系。特朗普总统认同于普通民众，许多人觉得事情进展不顺，他正在挑战当前的精英和经济利益集团，试图重塑世界。 目前，我们看到的一个例子是，他正在系统性地削弱哈佛大学，实际上这可能是世界上最有声望的大学之一。他削减他们的资金，试图干预他们的招生过程等等。让我感到惊讶的是，竟然没有人站出来为哈佛辩护。这个精英的堡垒，竟然没有人为其挺身而出。 我认为这与我们观察到的情况是一致的。民意调查显示，公众对我们的机构不像过去那样充满信心。因此，他们对这些机构被拆解或改变并不反感，这也是特朗普总统最初上台的原因。

Now, as in Trump, being a populist president at a time when the institutions are weak at a time when he has, you know, did win an election. So I'd say bought popular support. Again, there are many people who don't like him. But there is also I think at least 20% of the people who think of it as the great leader. So a court basically just the three guys in DC is not going to be able to change this entire movement. President has the support of tens of millions of people. He's on TV all the time. Everyone knows. And of course, many people perceive the court system to be unfair. So these court rulings are just not going to be able to change the president policy. The government itself is not super bound by the law. It's the government creates and enforces the law. So if you're looking at the law, the legal system to kind of change the executive, that's just not going to work in an era of populism.

现在，以特朗普为例，他是一位民粹主义总统，在制度薄弱的时期赢得了选举，可以说得到了民众的支持。当然，也有许多人不喜欢他，但我认为至少有20%的人视他为伟大的领袖。因此，仅靠华盛顿的三名法官是无法改变整个运动的。总统拥有数千万人的支持，经常出现在电视上，是众所周知的人物。当然，也有许多人认为法院系统不公平，所以这些法院裁决无法改变总统的政策。政府本身并不完全受法律约束，因为是政府制定和执行法律。所以，如果你期待法治体系能改变行政权力，那在民粹主义盛行的时代是不太现实的。

And if the courts do that, the courts, again, ultimately it's just a few people without an army, unelected their power derives from the consent of the people. And they're not going to be able to win. And so that's why the court in FDR's time bent the knee and that's why any court in this era will have to do the same. So in any case, we probably won't have to get to that extent. The president has acknowledged that there's a lot of other ways to do this. If you look through the existing law, there are current laws where they can impose tariffs of up to 15% for 90 days and during that period, just rolled out new section 232 studies that eventually tariffs and so forth. But there's a lot of tools for them to be able to do this. But I think looking to the legal system to try to stop this tariff policy, that's just not going to happen.

如果法院采取行动，实际上只是少数几个人没有军队，他们的权力来源于人民的同意。因此，他们不可能赢得胜利。这就是为什么在罗斯福时代，法院最终选择妥协的原因，在当今时代，任何法院也不得不这样做。不过，我们可能并不需要走到那一步。总统已经承认，有很多其他方法可以解决这个问题。根据现有法律，他们可以在90天内对关税征收最高15%的税率，并在此期间推出新的第232条审查，最终可能涉及关税等等。他们有很多工具可以实现这一目标。但我认为，依靠法律系统来阻止这种关税政策，不太可能实现。

The law is not some magic incantation. It really derives its legitimacy from the public and the public for decades has been looking for change. Now, maybe not particularly on tariffs, but still, I think most people give the president the benefit of the doubt. So I would expect tariffs to continue. And this stuff is just going to be how it is, at least until we get a new president. Okay, the second thing that I want to talk about is trade talks. Now, trade talks have not been going well, obviously. So I think the biggest key you can get from this is from Secretary of Bess and himself who said this.

法律并不是某种神奇的咒语。它真正的合法性来源于公众，而多年来公众一直在寻求改变。虽然可能不特别是在关税问题上，但我认为大多数人会给予总统一些信任。因此，我预计关税将会持续。这种情况起码在我们迎来新总统之前都会这样继续下去。好吧，我想谈论的第二件事情是贸易谈判。显然，贸易谈判一直进展不顺。所以我认为你可以从贝斯部长自己所说的话中找到最大的关键信息。

And what about China, specifically China and that obviously started in a different place, how can you characterize those talks now? I would say that they are a bit stalled. I believe that we will be having more talks with them in the next few weeks. And I believe we may, at some point, have a call between the president and party chair Xi. So basically, that's the sitting secretary of treasury acknowledging that trade talks with China are not going well. This is really surprising because if you notice everyone else in the administration, when you're part of the administration, you're on the same team and you've got to say good things about the president, everything's going well, everything's going well.

关于中国，特别是中国，这显然是从一个不同的地方开始的，你能如何描述那些谈判呢？我会说它们有点停滞。我相信在接下来的几个星期里，我们会与他们进行更多的谈判。而且我相信，总统和党主席习近平可能会在某个时候进行电话沟通。基本上，就是现任财政部长承认与中国的贸易谈判进展不顺。这真的很令人惊讶，因为如果你注意到政府中的其他人，在你是政府的一部分时，你得与团队保持一致，得说总统的好话，一切都很好，一切都很好。

And that's what they all say. So when one of them says something different, that's a huge red flag. And that suggests that things are actually really, really going really, really poorly. Now Bess and himself, I know that is a particularly honest person. I remember that at Liberation Day, when he was asked why the president did not have Canada and Mexico on his big poster of reciprocal tariffs, the secretary said, I don't know. That was surprising to me because no one wants to admit they don't know something on TV. And to admit that is also saying that I'm not that important. But he did that and so that tells me he's someone honest.

这就是他们都常说的话。所以当其中一个人说了不同的话时，那就是一个非常明显的警示信号。这意味着事情实际上非常、非常不顺利。现在说到贝斯和他本人，我知道他是一个特别诚实的人。我记得在解放日，有人问他为什么总统的大海报上没有加拿大和墨西哥的互惠关税时，他说：“我不知道。”这让我感到惊讶，因为没有人愿意在电视上承认自己不知道什么。而承认这一点也等于说自己不那么重要。但他却这样做了，所以这让我觉得他是一个诚实的人。

And so he's being honest again, saying that we're stalling here on trade talks with China. Now furthermore, on Friday, the president had a tweet complaining about trade talks with China, saying that no more Mr. Naisky. Now the reporting suggests that part of the agreement at Geneva was that the US would roll back their tariffs, China would roll back theirs. But also China would be able to expedite or at least continue rear earth shipments. But what seems to be happening is that the Chinese are slow walking their exporting and rear earths and that's impacting businesses in America and making the administration mad. So we'll see what they're going to do.

他再次坦诚地表示，我们在与中国的贸易谈判上陷入了停滞。此外，总统在周五发推文抱怨与中国的贸易谈判，并表示不会再保持绅士态度。据报道，在日内瓦达成的协议中，美国会取消一部分关税，中国也会取消一部分关税。而且，中国将能够加快或至少继续稀土的出口。然而，似乎中国在出口稀土方面动作缓慢，这对美国的企业造成了影响，使得美国政府感到不满。我们拭目以待他们将如何应对。

It looks like on Friday, they also wrote out new regulations saying that they're going to have more enforcement on certain Chinese tech mergers. And also throughout the week, the administration seems to be cracking down on visas for students from China. And that obviously is going to upset people in China. Now the thinking from the administration seems to be that China is our strategic competitor. It doesn't make sense for us to give university places to them, only for them to go back and maybe work in areas that are at odds with the US when we give this to an American who will stay here and try to make build out American industry.

看起来周五他们还颁布了新的规定，表示将加强对某些中国科技企业合并的监管。此外，本周内美国政府似乎也在收紧对中国学生的签证。这显然会让中国人民感到不满。目前来看，政府的思路是中国是我们的战略竞争对手，因此将大学名额给他们没有意义，因为他们可能回去后在某些与美国对立的领域工作，而如果我们把这些名额给美国人，他们就会留在这里，并努力发展美国工业。

So that seems to be their thinking. Now this is connected to, now despite all this, I think it's noteworthy that the markets really didn't go down a lot. And I think that's connected to something else that is the emergence of the taco trade which stands for Trump always chickens out. Now at a recent press conference, President Trump was actually asked about this and I don't know, he probably doesn't follow Twitter the way that many of us do, but it seemed like he was his first time hearing this. As your Wall Street analyst at Coin New New Term, called the taco trade, they're saying Trump always chickens out on the tariff threats and that's why markets are higher this week.

这似乎是他们的想法。现在这与某件事有关，尽管如此，我认为值得注意的是市场并没有出现大幅下跌。我认为这与另一件事有关，那就是所谓的“taco 交易”，意思是“特朗普总是退缩”。在最近的一次新闻发布会上，有记者问到了这个问题，我不确定特朗普是否像我们许多人那样关注推特，但看起来他似乎是第一次听说这个说法。据称华尔街分析师在Coin New New Term上提出了这个“taco 交易”的说法，他们认为特朗普总是在威胁加征关税时退缩，这也是本周市场上涨的原因。

What's your response to that? I kick out. Chicken out. Oh, chicken out. I've never heard that. And as we all know, Trump over the past decade would always make comments that foreign leaders are laughing at us, laughing at us, thinking that we're stupid. And now I think what the press is saying that Mr. President, the kids are laughing at you. They're saying that you always chicken out.

你对此有何回应？我选择逃避。胆怯了。哦，胆怯了。我从没听说过这个词。我们都知道，在过去十年里，特朗普总是说外国领导人在嘲笑我们，认为我们很愚蠢。而现在，媒体似乎在说，总统先生，孩子们在嘲笑你，他们说你总是退缩。

So we're at this juncture where one is that Trump is giving more resistance from the courts about his tariffs, his trade partners are pushing back against him and it seems like his trade agenda is not going well. And of course, he is being humiliated. So it seems that my best guess is looking at his temper and temperament, he might have to do something. Just to show the world that he's not a chicken.

我们现在处于这样一个阶段：特朗普在关税问题上正面临越来越多来自法院的阻力，他的贸易伙伴也在对他进行反击，看起来他的贸易议程进展不顺。此外，他还面临着屈辱。所以，基于我的判断，考虑到他的脾气和性格，他可能需要做出一些行动，以向世界证明他不是胆小鬼。

Okay, so we'll see what that is. Again, this whole week was dominated by headlines. I would not be surprised in the next week were to be the same. All right, talk to you guys next week.

好的，那我们来看看到底是什么。这整个星期都被各种头条新闻占据了。我不会感到惊讶，如果下周还是这样。好的，下周再和大家聊。