AI, Middle East, China, Tariffs, Recon Bill, Invest America | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner
发布时间 2025-05-22 16:40:48 来源
Can you imagine if in the year 2000 Washington DC had said oh my god Google is so powerful That we're not going to allow any other country in the world to have access to this Google machine that might give them answers to questions Unless Google comes to Washington and gets federal approval before it launches into any of these countries That's what we were doing in AI and I think we've ripped the chains off of that And I think now we're going to allow our companies to go compete win Hey Bill, it's great to see you. It's been a while it has been a while It's been I think three weeks since we did a podcast You know honestly and thanks as an aside to Hundreds if not thousands of listeners who are like you know remind us that they love the pod It is hard to get it scheduled Part of the reason it's been hard as I've been on the road.
你能想象吗，如果在2000年时，华盛顿特区说，“天哪，谷歌太强大了，我们不允许世界上任何其他国家访问这个可能回答问题的谷歌工具，除非谷歌先到华盛顿获得联邦批准，才能在这些国家推出。”这就是我们当时在人工智能领域的做法，但我认为我们已经挣脱了这些束缚，现在我们会允许我们的公司去竞争并获胜。
嗨，比尔，很高兴见到你。过了好久没见了。距离我们上次录播客已经三个星期了。说实话，非常感谢数百甚至数千名听众告诉我们他们喜欢这个播客。确实很难安排时间。部分原因是我一直在外出差。
I've been in LA I've been in Washington DC and then I spent 10 days in the Middle East and I think about what's happened Bill over that period of time We've basically landed the plane on tariffs We've had these huge deals announced in the Middle East the reconciliation bill is on track to passing and We have some talks of a ceasefire in Ukraine the market which was down 20% for the year has now bounced 20% in the last 20 trading days so maybe Today we could just unpack this fury of activity that's occurred over the last three weeks That sounds great. So you were at the big event the one that everyone's talking about in the Middle East Why don't you if you would you know give the listeners? I think at first just kind of what did it feel like what was what was different this time you've been there before But but frame what happened you know just at first from You know, what did this look like and then I'd be interested in your takeaways.
我去了洛杉矶，又去了华盛顿特区，接着我在中东待了10天。在这段时间里，发生了很多事情。我们基本上在关税问题上取得了突破，在中东宣布了很多重大交易，和解法案也有望通过，同时我们也听到了关于乌克兰停火的谈判。市场在今年下跌了20%，但在过去20个交易日里已经反弹了20%。或许今天我们可以详细分析一下过去三周发生的这些激烈活动。
听起来很不错。你参加了在中东的那个大事件，就是大家都在谈论的那个。你能否先给听众描述一下你的感受？这次和你以前去过的有什么不同？请先讲一下当时的场景，然后分享一下你的收获和想法。
Well, I have to say the whole orientation if you just think about it toward the Middle East over the last few years Has been kind of about control You know, we had syphias that was blocking all these deals in the Middle East We had the Biden diffusion rule That remember that in the final weeks of the Biden administration they passed a rule known as the diffusion rule Really created this complicated regulatory framework for selling Advanced chips and models and it broadly restricted the ability of the US to sell chips to like a hundred countries around the world And so I think that you know, we it felt like a massive 180 shift from what I would call the Washington approach of control and preventing diffusion of American technologies to much more of a Silicon Valley approach to partnership and openness and that was the language that I heard.
好的，我得说，过去几年来，美国在中东地区的整体战略似乎主要是关于控制。你知道，我们有一个名为 CFIUS（外资投资委员会）的机制，它阻碍了中东地区的许多交易。还有拜登扩散规则，记得在拜登政府最后几周，他们通过了一项被称为扩散规则的政策，这项规则建立了一个复杂的监管框架，特别是在出售高级芯片和模型方面，并广泛限制美国向全球大约100个国家出售芯片的能力。所以，我觉得这就像是一个180度的大转变，从我所谓的华盛顿控制和防止美国技术扩散的方法转向了更多的硅谷式合作和开放。这也是我听到的语言风格。
You know, I was I was happy to be part of an AI delegation with a lot of CEOs who were over there Helping to craft these deals But you know and getting to ride shotgun on some meetings with with David sacks You know, who is obviously leading the AI initiatives for the administration and I have to say it It just was incredibly well received in re odd and doha and Abu Dhabi and there was a spirit of partnership in every one of those places And you saw the fruits of that major announcements of investments in the United States and major deals getting each struck about You know, AI data centers etc that are opening in that part of the world That's amazing.
你知道，我很高兴成为一个人工智能代表团的一员，和许多首席执行官一起参与其中，帮助制定这些协议。我有机会与大卫·萨克斯一起参加一些会议，他显然是政府中负责人工智能项目的领导者。我必须说，在利雅得、多哈和阿布扎比，我们受到了非常热烈的欢迎，每个地方都充满了合作的精神。结果是显而易见的——宣布了在美国的重大投资，以及关于在该地区开设人工智能数据中心等重大协议的达成。太棒了！
Oh, of all those things which one surprised you the most It's a really big change. I mean you can't underscore Enough what it means, you know like the Trump administration just repealed the Biden diffusion rule and may have 25 Right, and so it it literally is fresh off of that and if you would have told me that in the first five months of this year We would have gotten a trillion dollar deal signed with Saudi in terms of their investment in the United States Another trillion dollars with Qatar another trillion dollars with the UAE Those are all investments into the United States and then let me give you a Sense of the scale of magnitude of the deal that was announced In in Abu Dhabi.
哦，在所有这些事情中，哪一件最让你惊讶？这真是一个巨大的变化。我是说，你无法充分强调这意味着什么。你知道，特朗普政府刚刚废除了拜登的扩散规则，这是在5月25日，而这件事刚刚发生。如果你告诉我，今年的前五个月，我们会和沙特签署一项价值万亿美元的投资协议，卡塔尔和阿联酋也分别投资万亿美元到美国。这些都是对美国的投资。让我为你描述一下在阿布扎比宣布的协议规模有多么巨大。
So in a in Abu Dhabi they announced a five gigawatt US AI, you know, it's a UAE US AI campus It's an incredible Campus it's in collaboration with Nvidia and open AI and and Oracle And think of it as almost like a global stargate so to put that perspective five gigs every gig is about 500,000 GPUs So that's about two and a half million GPUs worth of compute power to power the AI initiatives out of The UAE around the world.
在阿布扎比，他们宣布建立一个五吉瓦级的美国-阿联酋人工智能园区。这是一个了不起的园区，与Nvidia、OpenAI和Oracle合作建设。可以把它看作一个全球的“星际之门”。为了帮助理解，五吉瓦大约相当于50万个GPU（图形处理单元)。所以，这个园区将拥有大约250万个GPU的计算能力，用于支持阿联酋在全球范围内的人工智能项目。
And so if you would have told me that that would have come together in this short appeared at time I wouldn't have believed it how our Latinx played an incredibly important role Scott Bessett was there with the president of course David Sacks helping to put those deals together. You had CEOs, you know, you're asking how it looked and felt you know, you had pretty much every major CEO Elon's saying Correct jensen Huang was there etc And they were putting these deals together. So it there's just a feeling of the of the art of the deal what is possible Partnership in acceleration.
如果你告诉我这一切会在这么短的时间内完成，我真的不敢相信。然而，我们的拉丁裔社区发挥了非常重要的作用。Scott Bessett 和 David Sacks 帮助促成了这些协议。你想知道这看起来和感觉如何，在场的几乎所有重要CEO，比如Elon Musk和Jensen Huang等，都会告诉你他们在促成这些交易时的参与。所以，这种合作让人感受到了一种对交易艺术的可能性和加速发展的期望。
As opposed to the deceleration You know and the control that that I think you and I have felt over the last few years and frankly you and I have been worried about Right this idea that the US was going to somehow you know shut down Our AI and not allow the rest of the world to have access to our AI I think we not only thought that was bad policy from an economic perspective But also just dangerous for the world.
与过去几年中你我所感受到的增长放缓和控制不同，我们曾担心美国会以某种方式关闭我们的人工智能，不让世界其他国家获取我们的人工智能。这不仅从经济角度来看是一个糟糕的政策，而且对整个世界来说也是危险的。
It was basically going to allow for this Huawei Belt and Road Where Chinese full stack technologies would would would move into the Middle East And I've read I've read that was basically underway prior to this big event Literally underway In Saudi alone Huawei's market share has gone up a lot over the last few years Right it's not as though the these countries don't have They don't have the ability to do nothing and they Felt a little frankly betrayed by the United States.
基本上，这将使华为的“一带一路”计划得以实施，中国的全套技术将进入中东地区。据我所知，在这个重大事件发生之前，这一进程实际上已经在进行中。在沙特，仅华为的市场份额在过去几年中就大幅增长。这并不是说这些国家无能为力，而是他们感到有些被美国背叛了。
I think over the course of the last few years here. They are I mean takes out a Arabia as an example You know they've been our ally for 92 years these are not new relationships And all of a sudden we have this technology that we're telling everybody in the world is existential to your national development And yet at the same time we're saying but we're not going to give you our best technologies.
我在这里反思了过去几年的情况。比如说阿拉伯，他们是我们的盟友已经有92年了，这些关系并不是新的。但突然间，我们有了这种技术，我们告诉全世界这对你们的国家发展至关重要。然而与此同时，我们又说我们不会把最好的技术给你。
And so while I was in Saudi I had the opportunity to travel with His excellency the the the minister of technology Al-Sawaha And I got to go to you know incubation labs and see what was happening there See the data centers on the ground You know they have a huge AI project there called humane that they launched in partnership with folks like Nvidia and Grock.
在我访问沙特阿拉伯期间，我有机会与技术部长Al-Sawaha阁下同行。我参观了孵化实验室，了解那里的发展情况，还亲眼见到了现场的数据中心。他们有一个名为Humane的大型人工智能项目，这个项目是与Nvidia和Grock等公司合作启动的。
And so there's just an incredible level of enthusiasm And investment that's going on because they know how important AI is and I think frankly the US was on the verge Right if if we had continued down the path that we were on one year from now This would have been largely they would have made commitments to build on Chinese AI stacks because they couldn't afford To do nothing and so I think the timing of this change was critical.
因此，现在有一种极高的热情和投资涌现，因为大家都知道人工智能的重要性。坦率地说，美国当时正处于关键时刻。如果我们继续沿着过去一年的路径走下去，美国可能就只能依靠中国的人工智能技术，因为他们不能袖手旁观。因此，这次变革的时机非常关键。
You could tell just the appreciation for the spirit of partnership I saw that in every every capital that you're asking your question. Yeah. What do you think the competitive? I mean, I have an answer, but I'm going to ask it naively first. What do you think the competitive advantages of These national data centers in the Middle East?
你可以看出我对伙伴关系精神的欣赏，这在你提问的每一个首都都能看到。那么，你认为中东地区这些国家数据中心的竞争优势是什么？我有一个答案，但我先天真地问一下你的看法。
Yeah, I mean first, you know you and I talk about it all the time a primitive to To AI is power and they have cheap power And you know eventually the price of producing tokens We're effectively converting electrons right they're cheap energy and by the way It's both solar and nuclear and and and natural gas some of the largest natural gas fields in the world.
是的，我的意思是首先，你知道你和我一直在谈论的一个原理，即AI需要的是能源，而他们拥有廉价的能源。你知道，最终生产代币的成本——我们实际上是在将电子转换为价值——是非常便宜的能源，顺便说一下，这包括太阳能、核能，还有天然气，其中一些是世界上最大的天然气田。
Those things are being converted into intelligence and to say more broadly You know for the last 50 years this part of the world has been powering the industrial age by exporting oil I think they're viewed to the future is they want to power the the age of AI Through the production of tokens and the export of tokens and You know and that's just converting you know this power into tokens.
这些事物正在转化为智能。更广泛地说，在过去的50年中，这个地区通过出口石油推动了工业时代的发展。我认为他们对未来的展望是希望通过生产和出口代币来推动人工智能时代的发展。可以说，就是将这种力量转化为代币。
And so that I believe is a critical element, but here's the other thing But wait, let me let me poke it down I want to poke it down a little bit because I've been Just out of curiosity thinking about maybe trying to break down in my mind the percentage of Cost you know if you're out buying a token on the open market.
我认为这是一个关键因素，但这里还有另一点。等一下，让我仔细想一想。我一直出于好奇，想在脑海中分析一下，如果你在公开市场上购买代币，其成本比例大概是多少。
It's tied to power And I'll tell you what I discovered, but but I was just really talking with AI and a few friends So if anyone in the audience has better numbers let me know But what I what what I've seen is cooling in power might be 20% of cogs Which depending on your gross margin on your hosting let's say maybe powers 15% of cogs or I don't know and then that would equate to maybe 10% of revenues so if you had Let's say a two to one power advantage you might pick up five percentage points of operating margin something like that or be able to price five percent lower I'm just trying to frame that advantage I throw a few other things in there number one, right? You just have the issue of latency, right? So This part of the world needs Local data centers so whether it's for Africa whether it's for Europe whether it's for The Middle East itself whether it's for India and so I think there's just proximity It's it's an important consideration here And then of course the cost of labor and they're building and investing in these robotic futures for their building Very futuristic data centers.
这与电力有关，我来告诉你我发现的内容。不过，我主要是和人工智能以及几个朋友交流过，因此如果在座的有人有更准确的数据，请告知我。根据我的观察，制冷在电力成本中可能占到 20%，而电力成本取决于你的托管毛利率，大概可能占到成本的 15%，我也不太确定。这样的话，电力成本可能相当于收入的 10%。假设你有一个二比一的电力优势，你可能会获得大约 5% 的运营利润率提升，或者能够把价格降低 5%。我只是想描绘这种优势。
此外，还有一些其他因素。首先，就是延迟问题。世界上不同地区需要本地化的数据中心，比如非洲、欧洲、中东或印度等地区。因此，接近性是一个重要的考量。同时，劳动力成本也是一个因素，他们正在为建设这些未来化的数据中心进行建设和投资，未来将采用机器人技术。
So I you know, I think for a long time the US has viewed for example This part of the world as perhaps a bit of an industrial powerhouse when it comes to oil But not very technologically advanced and I would I would tell you listening to shake tech noon You know in the UAE And their commitment it they are they are as technology forward as anything here in Silicon Valley Right paying at g 42 etc and all three of these countries Are going to invest aggressively at a level that really no other sovereign on a global basis is investing at To ensure that this set that this part of the world becomes a center for technology and AI and I think it's critical that the US was their partner in in that regard And so you know sacks I saw tweeted when we got back Something that I thought was important. He said you know this this AI Acceleration partnership is not just a single deal It's a new framework for advancing American AI both at home and abroad You know and pers positioning the US tech stack to be the partner of choice in this region for decades to come and And I think that's right.
翻译如下：
所以你知道，我认为很长一段时间以来，美国一直将这个世界的某些地区视为可能是一个工业强国，尤其是在石油方面，但技术并不算先进。不过，我想说的是，听了阿联酋的Tech Noon演讲后，他们在技术方面的投入和硅谷并无二致，例如G42等公司说明了这一点。这三个国家都会在全球主权国家中，积极地进行大规模投资，以确保这个地区成为技术和人工智能的中心。我认为关键的是，美国应当成为他们在这一方面的合作伙伴。
此外，当我们回来的时候，Sacks发了一条推文，我觉得很重要。他说，这次AI加速合作伙伴关系不仅仅是一项协议，它是推进美国人工智能发展的新框架，无论是在国内还是国际上。它旨在将美国的技术体系定位为该地区未来几十年的首选合作伙伴。我认为这是正确的。
You know, this wasn't just a one-off deal I think a lot of people who are hearing about these deals thought Oh, maybe Trump went over there worked as art of the deal and got a deal done with the Saudis or the Qataris But no, I think this is a framework that the world can depend upon That in fact they are going to have access to these technologies. Let me give you let me give you a comparison bill Can you imagine if in the year 2000 Washington DC had said oh my god google is so powerful That we're not going to allow any other country in the world to have access to this google machine Give them answers to questions unless google comes to Washington and gets federal approval Before it launches in any of these any of these countries I mean it would have it would have prevented google from ever becoming the global powerhouse that it has become which has been so Adventages to the United States hard power soft power economic power And so that's what we were doing in AI and I think we've ripped the Ripped the the chains off of that and I think now we're going to allow our companies to go compete and win.
你知道的，这不仅仅是一笔一次性的交易。我认为很多听到这些交易的人可能觉得，哦，也许特朗普去了那边，运用了“交易的艺术”，达成了与沙特阿拉伯或卡塔尔的交易。但实际上，我认为这是一种全世界可以依赖的框架。事实上，他们将能接触到这些技术。
让我给你做个对比。你能想象如果在2000年，华盛顿特区说，天哪，谷歌太强大了，我们不会允许世界上任何其他国家使用这台谷歌机器来回答问题，除非谷歌先来华盛顿获得联邦批准，然后才能在任何这些国家启动的情况吗？换句话说，这种限制本来会阻止谷歌成为全球强大的公司，而谷歌的成功一直以来对美国的硬实力、软实力和经济实力都是非常有利的。
所以这就是我们在人工智能领域曾经面对的挑战。我认为我们已经打破了这种束缚，现在我们将允许我们的公司去竞争并获胜。
Well and to frame that a little more um, I just Put on ex earlier today article in the Wall Street Journal that just came out that was talking about How far behind Europe is and broadly speaking in terms of of business culture and tech and The article goes into a lot of detail about how complex regulations have have limited or stifled innovation both on the labor side and on the technology side and The policies that were being considered let's say three months ago To me all were mere images of the ones that are listed out in this article So I think we were a hundred percent on a path towards Building a wall around America not building a wall around China and If we had continued on that path I think I would have predicted had we continue around that path That you know if you look at the internet error there really was The rest of the world using americans internet and then China built their own internet correct
为了更好地理解这一点，我今天早些时候在《华尔街日报》上看到一篇文章，谈到了欧洲在商业文化和科技等方面的落后。这篇文章详细探讨了复杂的法规如何在劳动和技术领域限制或阻碍了创新。文章中提到的政策，与我几个月前考虑的政策十分类似。我认为，我们当时完全是在朝着将美国孤立于世界之外的方向前进，而不是将中国隔开。如果我们继续走那条路，我预测情况可能会像互联网时代一样，那时候世界其他地区都在使用美国的互联网，而中国则选择发展自己的互联网。
I think we were headed towards a path where we were going to have a wall around america And there was going to be america AI and then China AI was going to have the rest of the world the opposite of the internet And it didn't go and I think had we continued on that path or if we go back towards that path because I don't think this is over I mean, I think some of the rhetoric coming out of the hill and valley conference was more consistent with the wall around america But but it's a great sign that we're not you know holistically committed to that strategy
我觉得我们曾经走上一条道路，那就是在美国周围筑起一道“墙”，在这墙内是美国的人工智能，而在墙外则由中国的人工智能主导世界，这与互联网的开放精神相反。但这种情况并未发生。我认为，如果我们继续沿着那条路走下去，或者如果我们回到这条路上，（尽管我认为事情还没有完全结束），比如我觉得在最近的山谷会议上的一些言论与“围墙美国”的策略更接近，不过当前的积极迹象表明我们并没有全心全意地走那条路。
Well, I think I think you said it incredibly well It would be a disaster for this country If we embarked on a path that was the opposite of what we did in the age of the internet The united states was the greatest beneficiary from the internet boom of the last 20 years The AI boom is going to be even bigger than the internet boom And we need to follow the pattern and the protocol and approach that is made The united states a global leader in technology We do not want to be copying europe We do not want to be in the situation that China was in the age of internet And so I think this was a major and important first step in that direction
我认为你说得非常好。如果我们走上一条与互联网时代相反的路，那对这个国家来说将是灾难性的。在过去的20年里，美国是互联网繁荣的最大受益者，而人工智能的繁荣将会比互联网更为巨大。我们需要遵循那些让美国成为全球技术领袖的模式、规则和方法。我们不想去效仿欧洲，也不想处于中国在互联网时代的境地。因此，我认为这是朝着正确方向迈出的重要一步。
But you're right bill. I saw a headline this morning that said Trump's rush for a ideas Deals in the gulf opened up a rift with china hawks in the administration And you know that there's still these you know effective altruist types Who are these decelerationists in silicon valley who don't want to see the diffusion of any of this AI So it's creating this weird coalition of folks who have resisted the diffusion of American technology
但是你说得对，比尔。我今天早上看到一个新闻标题，说特朗普在海湾地区急于达成的协议，引发了他政府中对中国持强硬立场的人士的不满。而且你知道，硅谷还有一些所谓的“有效利他主义者”，他们是所谓的“减速主义者”，不希望看到这种人工智能技术的扩散。所以，这就形成了一个奇怪的联盟，这些人一直在抵制美国技术的传播。
And I am I am firmly in the camp that we are not only safer We are more prosperous when the world runs on the American AI stack and I thought last week was I was Celebratory because it was planting a major flag in this incredibly important part of the world with with world class allies who have Who have major resources and desire and commitment and passion to invest with america in this
我坚定地认为，当世界运行在美国的人工智能体系上时，我们不仅更加安全，也更加繁荣。上周对我来说是个值得庆祝的时刻，因为我们在这个极其重要的地区，与拥有丰富资源和强烈投资意愿的世界级盟友一起，树立了一个重要的标志。
You know, I also think you know one of the side benefits bill This has been a part of the world that has been unstable for a long time Right we still have issues in Iran in fact. I think we're you know perhaps on the precipice Of a major fork in the road with Iran where they they're signed that the nuclear non-proliferation Deal on the table or you know, we could have a hot war situation with Iran But I would say I expect that the presidents lifting of the sanctions on Syria probably gives way To the Saudis signing the Abraham Accords and other positive developments in this part of the world
你知道吗，我想你也了解一个附带的好处。这地区长期以来一直不太稳定。没错，我们在伊朗仍然面临问题。事实上，我认为我们可能正处于一个关键时刻，伊朗要么签署核不扩散协议，要么我们可能与伊朗发生激烈冲突。不过，我认为总统解除对叙利亚的制裁，可能会促使沙特签署《亚伯拉罕协议》，以及该地区的其他积极发展。
So I don't think it was just a business deal had we alienated this part of the world in terms of business I think it would have been a major setback for American diplomacy in this part of the world I think it was a good day for American businesses this is going to be an a ton of business for companies like Nvidia companies like AMD Folks who are suppliers to those companies. I think it's important for companies Like open AI that want to build out capability there you know a major development
所以我认为这不仅仅是一个商业交易问题。如果我们在这个地区的商业活动中疏远了自己，我认为这会对美国在该地区的外交造成重大挫折。我认为这对美国企业来说是一个好消息。这将为像Nvidia和AMD这样的公司带来大量业务，对这些公司的供应商也会很有利。我认为这对于像OpenAI这样希望在该地区拓展能力的公司来说也是一个重要的发展。
You know two things I would mention on the end of this that relate to You know global AI the global AI race. Let's just call it that First this hill in Valley conference, which I watched a little bit online. I didn't go you weren't there where you I wasn't I wasn't but I one of my one of my partners was there and I went last year and you know There's a lot of good that comes out of that conference. All right. There may be but the tone on the AI tone I would say was the opposite of everything we just talked about
你知道，我想在结束之前提到两件事，都是关于全球AI竞赛的。我们就称它为全球AI竞赛吧。首先是Hill and Valley会议，我在网上观看了一些内容。我没去，你也没去，对吧？我确实没去，但是我的一个合作伙伴去了，我去年倒是去过。你知道，这个会议还是有很多好东西产生的。不过，会议上关于AI的调子，我觉得和我们刚才讨论的一切完全相反。
In fact There's a there's an interesting right up on it where This one blogger titled welcome to the China hawk industrial complex So so I'm not I'm not trying to pour cold water on everything we just talked about I'm just saying there's still there is there's a large group of people in our community who have invested in Either software that they sell to the military or now products and services they sell to the military that I think Need to be China hawks in order to justify the Business they're in and in order to root for their companies
事实上，有一篇有趣的博文标题为“欢迎来到中国鹰派工业综合体”。所以，我并不是想给我们刚讨论的话题泼冷水，我只是说在我们社区中，仍然有一大群人，他们投资了销售给军方的软件或如今销售给军方的产品和服务。我认为这些人需要成为中国鹰派，以便合理化他们所从事的业务，并为他们的公司加油打气。
And I will tell you after spending 25 years Invent your capital. There's just this instinctive thing. It's like defending your children once you invest in something You just start to adopt the the mouthpiece for it and make a lot of arguments that are central to that company success And I think that's happening now that we have a large number of VCs in the military space
在花了25年发明你的资本之后，我会告诉你，这就像是一种本能。就像在保护你的孩子一样，一旦你投资了某个东西，你就会开始为它代言，为它的成功辩护。我认为这种情况现在正在发生，因为我们在军事领域有了大量的风险投资人。
Well, I don't know. I wear a big investors in andrall You know, we're big investors and bite-dance. I have an intellectual capacity To you know to understand these investments for what they are and these partnerships for what they are But most importantly, I think Everybody has to figure out what's best for team America right? We need to put America first when it comes to thinking about our global diplomacy Rather than what's best for my investment maybe in a bite dance or what's best for my investment in andrall. But I do I do think there is a valid Disagreement here, right? And I've had this debate with Josh Wolf You know, who's a good friend and Josh is much more skeptical when it comes to China And and open and free trade on on issues of American AI I would say than I am. I think he has some thoughtful arguments on the issue But you know on some things we can just agree to disagree as it pertains to the Middle East.
好吧，我也不太清楚。我是andrall和字节跳动的大投资者。你知道，我们在这些公司投入很多。我有一定的能力去理解这些投资及合作的重要性。但最重要的是，我认为每个人都必须搞清楚什么是对美国团队最好的选择，对吧？在思考全球外交时，我们需要优先考虑美国，而不是着眼于我在字节跳动或andrall的投资利益。不过，我确实觉得在这一点上确实存在合理的分歧。我和一个好朋友Josh Wolf讨论过这个问题，他在涉及中国、美国人工智能的自由贸易等问题上，比我更加怀疑。他有一些很有见地的观点，不过在中东问题上，我们或许只能各持己见。
And I'd welcome Josh's Josh's view on this. I'm not sure what they are But I think it's unquestionable the US is better off Having American AI in partnership with all of our allies in the Middle East if we can't be in partnership with our allies Like India like the Middle East, etc. Then what are we doing? Yeah, right? I totally agree with that. I will agree to disagree on the other thing I do think that once people start back in this stuff in a big way that it's going to be naturally would take on that point of view We talk a little bit about the Middle East maybe you know the other big news is that But I did want to finish with one thing.
我欢迎Josh对此发表意见。虽然我不确定他的看法，但我认为毫无疑问，与中东盟友合作的美国AI对我们更有利。如果我们不能与印度和中东等盟友合作，那我们在做什么呢？对吧？我完全同意这一点。对于其他事情，我们可以求同存异。我确实认为一旦人们在这种事情上开始大力支持，自然会倾向于这种观点。我们可以稍微谈谈中东问题，也许你知道其他大新闻，但我想以一件事情作为结尾。
Sure It appears the markets reacted positively Specifically to the Middle East talks and and events correct Is that correct? I mean, you know the the Sunday That you know before the Middle East so like the day before the Middle East visit began You had Scott Bessett who had concluded the Chinese negotiations in Switzerland and I think that was the bigger catalyst, right? So we had this huge bounce back in the markets these two converging events You know, you had the walking back of tariffs on China and Bessett said you know our goal is not to decouple from China Especially in non-strategic goods, right? And remember with China almost everything is non-strategic goods But to open markets and restore balance we will he said in his tweet We will continue trading with China especially in non-strategic goods and at lower tariff levels.
当然，看起来市场确实对中东谈判和事件反应积极，对吧？我是说，你知道吗，在中东访问开始的前一天，就是那个周日，斯科特·贝塞特刚刚在瑞士结束了与中国的谈判，我觉得那才是更大的催化剂，对吧？因此，市场出现了巨大反弹，这两个事件的汇聚使得中美之间的关税有所回撤。贝塞特说，我们的目标不是与中国脱钩，尤其是在非战略性商品方面。要记住，对于中国来说，几乎所有商品都是非战略性的。我们会开放市场，恢复平衡，他在推特上说，我们将继续与中国进行贸易，特别是在非战略性商品，并以较低的关税水平进行。
At the same time we're focused on reshoring critical industries like medicine chips and steel to protect National security interests So remember when we talked bill three weeks ago I was very vocal in saying there was there were two paths being presented to this administration There's what I described as the nuclear Navarro path which was High structural tariffs on everybody in the world generate two trillion of tariff revenue and get rid of the internal revenue service Right that was door one which the markets abhorred right? That's what sent the markets down 20% Because we knew two trillion dollars in tariffs is probably a 600 to 700 basis point headwind to GDP And door two was what I described as the Bessent or the Hassett approach Which was more consistent with the fair trade argument the president had previous outlined Which was to reshore critical industries to have some tariffs on the rest of the world But to be modest in the scope of the overall economy and so it looks like and I think what the market was reacting to Was that the president has has has leaned in the direction of the fair trade the Bessent approach To China and to rest of world on tariffs and away from the Navarro approach.
同时，我们专注于将关键行业如药品、芯片和钢铁等带回本国，以保护国家安全利益。记得我们三周前讨论过的那个问题吗？当时我明确表示有两条路线摆在本届政府面前。一条是我称之为“核版纳瓦罗”的路径，即对全球征收高额结构性关税，预计可以产生两万亿美元的关税收入，并取消国内税务署。这是第一条路线，但市场对此并不买账，这也是导致市场下跌20%的原因。因为征收两万亿美元的关税可能会对国内生产总值造成600到700个基点的负面影响。
第二条路线是我称之为“贝森特或哈西特”的方法，这更加符合总统之前提出的公平贸易理念。即将关键行业带回本国，对其他国家施加一些关税，但在整体经济规模上保持适度。看起来，总统在关税政策上倾向于这种公平贸易、贝森特的方法，而不是纳瓦罗的方法。我想这也是市场做出反应的原因。如此一来，总统在对待中国和其他国家的关税问题上，更加倾向于公平贸易路线，而非激进的高关税政策。
In fact, we haven't seen much in Navarro in the last three weeks and who's been in the lead lead chair on everything Who was on the talk shows again this weekend? It was Scott Bessent and so I think the when the tariff started you and I talked about the fact that that chaos is very difficult both for investors But also for executives like committing to hiring programs committing to catbacks all these things and there's no doubt that that Bessent brings a Notion of calmness, you know to the table almost every time he talks. He just talks in a calm way Uh But he's in the president the president said every time you go on television the market goes up I think the president agrees with you. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, so so that's that's all good and just To Because this I think I think the markets appropriately recognize that the China tariff agreement is the biggest one in the most Infortia you know more than any others so as I understand it We're in a 90-day suspension on drastic tariffs.
实际上，在过去的三周里，我们并没有在纳瓦罗身上看到太多，而这些时间里主导一切的人是谁呢？又是谁在这个周末再次上了脱口秀节目呢？是斯科特·贝森特。所以我认为当关税问题开始的时候，你和我谈到过，无论是对投资者还是对企业高管来说，混乱都是非常困难的，比如承诺招聘计划、资本支出等等这些事情。毫无疑问，贝森特几乎每次讲话时都会带来一种冷静的气氛，他的讲话总是很平和。不过，总统说，每次你上电视，市场就会上涨。我想总统是同意你的观点的。是的，是的，是这样，因此这都是好的事情。而我认为市场也会认可中国关税协议的重要性，比其他任何协议都重要。据我所知，我们正处于为期90天的关税激烈措施暂停期。
We have a 30% import on Chinese still though so if you're if you're importing 80% of your you know cogs from China that's still a big deal It's split. I've been told 10% tariff and 20% this odd fentanyl tariff and I guess the second part leaves open the door that if China agrees To something on fentanyl precursors that immediately drops to 10 that's my interpretation Do you I don't know if you know more than I do well?
我们对中国钢铁产品的进口关税是30%。因此，如果你从中国进口80%的库存商品，这仍然是一个很大的影响。据我所知，这30%分成了两部分：10%的普通关税和20%的对抗芬太尼的特殊关税。我猜，如果中国在芬太尼前体上达成某种协议，后者可能会立刻降到10%。这是我的理解。不知道你是否了解得比我更多？
So what I would say is going into this year Our tariffs on China were 15% okay Okay, and so my you know, but look at the tweet that the bestent sent He said especially in non-strategic goods and at lower tariff levels So there is the possibility that on certain non-strategic goods you could actually have be back to 15% or maybe even lower bill as you suggested But I think on the strategic believe textiles Home home goods correct toys would off it in that right backyard umbrellas
所以我想说的是，今年开始我们的对华关税是15%。而且，你们看一下总裁发布的推文，他提到特别是在非战略性商品上和较低的关税水平。因此，有可能在某些非战略性商品上，关税可以回到15%，甚至可能更低，就像你所建议的那样。但是我认为在战略性商品上，比如纺织品、家居用品、玩具等，这些可能会维持在现有的关税水平，比如庭院伞。
Yes, all the stuff that people want to buy on Amazon You know that is non-strategic but when it comes to steel and aluminum and chips and items that we consider Very strategic certain medicines Solar panels might be a borderline issue right. They've said on those They're going to be higher tariffs. So maybe those stay at 30% bill when you blended all out I had my team rerun the math
好的，所有人们想在亚马逊上购买的东西，这些不具战略意义。但是当涉及到钢铁、铝、芯片以及我们认为非常具有战略意义的物品时，某些药品和太阳能电池板可能是一个有争议的问题。对于这些商品，他们已经表示会征收更高的关税。因此，这些关税可能会保持在30%。我让我的团队重新计算了一下。
So remember I came on here on Liberation Day and I held up the list of tariffs that That we're on the poster board that Trump showed and I said if you just had all those up It comes up to 800 billion dollars in tariffs Right we have 3.3 trillion dollars of goods that are imported every year into the country from abroad And so 8.8 trillion dollars or 8.8 800 billion dollars of tariffs is pretty substantial
所以记得我在解放日那天来到这里，举起了特朗普展示的海报板上的关税清单，我说如果你把所有这些加起来，总共是8000亿美元的关税。对吧，我们每年从国外进口的商品总额是3.3万亿美元，所以8000亿美元的关税是非常可观的。
It now I had them rerun the math today and if you put China at 30% on strategic at 15% on non-strategic And though in the rest of the world roughly at 10% you come up with about 300 billion in tariffs Okay, I just told you that last year tariffs were 77 billion So that's still a 4x increase in tariff revenue Right to the United States But it's 300 billion on a 28 trillion dollar economy
今天我让他们重新计算了一下，如果将中国的战略性产品关税设定为30%，非战略性产品设定为15%，而世界其他地方大致为10%的关税，那么大约会产生3000亿美元的关税收入。但是，我刚才告诉你，去年关税收入是770亿美元。因此，这仍然是关税收入的四倍增长。不过，这3000亿美元相对于28万亿美元的经济体而言还是相对较小的。
So I think what the market was saying is okay 300 billion half of that will show up as increased prices and taxes on consumers and on businesses Half of it will get eaten by the the producer of the product in China in India wherever You know, that's not that big a headwind to the US economy And that's why I think you've seen the markets bounce now remember we're just back to where we started the year
我认为市场的意思是，3000亿美元增加的费用中，一半将通过物价上涨和税收形式转嫁给消费者和企业，另一半将由中国、印度等地的产品生产者承担。对于美国经济来说，这样的影响并不算太大。这也是为什么我们看到市场出现反弹。请记住，我们现在只是回到了年初时的位置。
The markets were down 20% now they're up 20% And so I think this is about Giving a a path and giving some Definition around the path forward the flight path forward and if you take these two things together Okay We went to the Middle East and we landed the plane did a bunch of deals got trillions of dollars of investment into the United States
市场曾下跌 20%，现在又上涨 20%。我认为这需要为未来的发展路径提供一个清晰的方向。我们去了中东地区，顺利达成了一系列交易，为美国带来了数万亿美元的投资。
We unlocked hundreds of billions of exports to the Middle East Then then you landed the plane on tariffs those two things together bill Are a very positive orientation Toward the world right again, so you know you were saying this is still not a settled in issue within the administration on on the diffusion of technology But these two things together are not an isolationist approach to the world
我们打开了数千亿美元的中东出口市场，然后你成功解决了关税问题。这两件事结合在一起，表明我们对世界的支持态度非常积极。因此，你知道你提到在技术扩散问题上，政府内部仍未达成一致意见，但这两件事合在一起，并不是一种孤立主义的世界观。
Right these two things together are still Somebody asked me on CNBC. I think in March. I was saying there are these two doors that we could two paths we could follow And they said well, what do you think Trump is and I said at the end of the day he wrote a book called the art of the deal Right this guy is he wants fair trade, but he's a deal maker on tariffs and on AI diffusion
好的，这两件事情放在一起仍然成立。有人在 CNBC 问我这个问题，我记得是在三月份。我当时说我们面前有两条路可以选择。他们问我对特朗普怎么看，我说说到底，他写了一本书叫做《交易的艺术》。这个人想要的是公平贸易，但同时他在关税和人工智能扩散方面是一个善于谈判的人。
He's been a deal maker and I think both of those things are positives for the economy And that's why you've seen the market bounce back the way it has Certainly has Oh, by the way one one other thing I wanted to mention Discus we didn't mention it, but I know there was a lot of concern Among some of the companies that use strategic inputs the rare earth issues
他一直以来都是一个交易的推动者，我认为这些都是对经济有利的因素。这就是为什么市场能够像现在这样反弹的原因。确实如此。哦，对了，还有一件事我想提一下，我们刚才没有提到这个问题，我知道有些公司对稀土问题感到担忧。
Yes. Yes. Those were The those restrictions were removed as part of this first 90 day pause Yeah, I think that's going to be a critical question. You know remember we still have We're not it's a 90 day pause so it could come back if things you know where to Go off the rails and remember we still have a ban on
是的，是的。那些限制措施在最初的90天暂停阶段被取消了。我认为这是一个关键的问题。要知道，这只是一个90天的暂停期，如果事情进展不顺利，这些限制可能会恢复。此外，我们仍然有一个禁令。
The export of h20 so there are no chips Currently being sold by Nvidia into China. Yeah, right. We have a complete ban on AI chips into China I think I think jensen was on the social media again in the past two days Expressing dismay about that and even he came up with some math that he would have sold 15 billion next year
目前，Nvidia并未向中国出售任何H20芯片。是的，没错。我们对向中国出口AI芯片有一个全面的禁令。我猜测在过去的两天里，黄仁勋（Nvidia的CEO）可能又在社交媒体上表达了对此的不满，他甚至做了一些计算，表示明年他本可以在中国市场上卖出150亿美元的芯片。
And he said it would have created three billion in US tax revenue that the US won't man I mean, I think I think if you forecast out two or three years They were on track to be a 50 billion dollar business I think in China and if you just apply a normal margin and tax rate to that You know that's billions and billions of dollars lost to the US Treasury The Chinese consumers Would have would have effectively been paying. It's probably another 10 billion dollars of profits to Nvidia that were lost That they are they would have otherwise plowed into research and development to keep America at the forefront of chip technology.
他说，这本来可以为美国创造30亿美元的税收，但美国没有得到。我意思是，我认为如果你把时间预估到两三年后，他们本来会在中国成为一家价值500亿美元的企业。如果你按照正常的利润率和税率计算，那就是美国财政部损失了数十亿美元。而中国消费者实际上本可以支付的可能是另一笔10亿美元的利润给英伟达，这笔钱本可以用于研发，以保持美国在芯片技术方面的领先地位。
So I think that we could we could still see as part of the negotiation over the next 90 days I would not be terribly surprised to see Nvidia allowed to sell some form of deprecated chip into China And I know again different people have different opinions on that My opinion and I think you share this is China already has frontier AI Huawei is already there. We have demonstrable evidence of that and their models are already there Arguably their open source models might even be in front of the United States at this point in time And so there's no keeping China from frontier AI.
所以我认为，在接下来的90天的谈判中，我们可能会看到英伟达被允许向中国销售某些降级版的芯片，对此我不会感到非常惊讶。我知道，不同的人对此有不同的看法。我的观点是——我想你也认同——中国已经具备了前沿的人工智能技术，华为已经达到这一水平。我们有明确的证据证明这一点，他们的模型已经存在。可以说，他们的开源模型甚至可能已经领先于美国。因此，无法阻止中国在前沿人工智能方面的发展。
So the better question is are we better off competing against them? Right are we better off selling to those countries Those companies keeping companies like bite dance and tenson et cetera in the kuda ecosystem Rather than allowing all of that data all of those profits to flow right into the Huawei ecosystem and benefit the Chinese AI stack I think listen I think that's a closer call than selling chips to the Middle East. But if you when push comes to shove I would sell chips into China Because I think it's a net benefit to the United States And we've talked about that in the past yes and and and and there are many many many people who now believes that You know restricting our technology into China just gives them more and more incentive to implement their own technology faster And to invest behind it which has been happening.
所以更好的问题是，我们是否更应该与他们竞争？我们是否更应该向那些国家出售产品，让像字节跳动和腾讯这样的公司留在我们的生态系统中，而不是让所有数据和利润直接流入华为生态系统，从而令中国的人工智能技术受益。我觉得，这比向中东出售芯片更加接近于两难选择。但如果非要做决定的话，我会选择向中国出售芯片，因为我认为这对美国来说是净收益。我们以前也讨论过这个问题，现在有很多人认为，限制我们向中国输出技术，只会促使他们更快地发展自己的技术，并投入更多的资金，这种情况已经在发生。
Well, I mean if you look at you look at auto's autos robotics, et cetera I mean, there's plenty there's plenty of evidence about that No, another I would say the third big thing that that's happened since you and I were last on I can't believe by the way You step away for like 15 days It you know and all of this stuff happens. It's really crazy. Yeah, I like time has has new data every day.
嗯，我的意思是，如果你看看汽车、自动化、机器人等等，我是说，有很多证据能说明这一点。还有，我想说，自从我们上次见面后又发生了第三件大事。我真不敢相信，你只离开了大约15天，就发生了这么多事，实在是太疯狂了。是的，感觉每天都有新的信息出现。
But the other big one here is underway is the reconciliation bill and as a reminder to folks We have to pass a budget for the United States the reconciliation bill It's a special type of legislation in the Congress designed to expedite right budget related laws And the way it does this bill is it basically suspends the filibuster. So so long as you're complying with these budget rules in the Senate Known as the bird rules which is the only things that can go in to this package have to be related to the budget But if that is the case then you only have to get to 50 votes in the Senate Rather than the 60 votes otherwise required to be filibuster proof.
但这里的另一个重要事项正在进行中，那就是和解法案。提醒大家，我们必须为美国通过一个预算。和解法案是国会内的一种特别立法，目的是加快与预算相关的法律。这个法案的作用是基本上暂停议事阻挠（filibuster）。所以，只要你在参议院遵循这些被称为"伯德规则"（Bird Rules）的预算规则，这个法案中涉及的内容都必须与预算有关。如果符合这个条件，那你只需要在参议院获得50张票，而不是通常需要的60票来避免阻挠。
So you basically take all of these smaller pieces of legislation that might have otherwise touched the tax code or the budget And you roll them up into this huge package called a reconciliation bill. Now the reconciliation bill it started in with a draft in the House The Senate will then review that draft and the White House is weighing in on it. So it's you know the expected timeline I think the president was at the At you know spoke to the House caucus today. But it's expected to be passed out of the House this week Then the Senate will weigh in on it for two to three weeks It will amend some of the language in it it will add things it will subtract things etc It'll send it back to the House at the end of June.
你基本上是把所有可能涉及税法或预算的小型立法合并成一个被称为"协调法案"的庞大方案。这个协调法案最初由众议院起草，然后交由参议院审议，白宫也会对此给予意见。据我所知，总统今天已经在众议院党团会议上发表了讲话。预期这个法案将在本周由众议院通过。随后，参议院将在两到三周内对此进行讨论，他们会修改其中的一些语言，添加或删除某些内容，等等。最后，法案将在六月底被送回众议院。
And then the president is expected to sign it into law somewhere at the end of the month or around the first or second of July. So maybe we can break down a little bit what's in the in the package bill I think the biggest thing is it's the extension of the Trump tax cuts right And so remember when those tax cuts were passed in 2017 They they only had a 10 year life So they're set to expire in about a year unless they're extended And so that would be a major like a three trillion four trillion dollar increase to taxes At the end of this year unless they're extended so the first thing they do is just extend those tax cuts For another five to ten years whatever they agree on in the reconciliation package.
然后总统预计会在月底或七月初一两天左右签署使之成为法律。那么我们可以简单分析一下这个议案包的内容。我认为其中最重要的部分是，延长特朗普税改方案。要记得，这些税改措施在2017年通过时只有10年的期限，所以如果不被延长，它们将在一年内到期。到今年年底，如果没有延长，税收可能会大幅增加三到四万亿美元。因此，首先他们将这些税改措施再延长五到十年，具体时间取决于他们在和解方案中达成的协议。
But then you have all these additional tax cuts that he talked about on the campaign trail No tax on tips No tax on overtime No taxes on so security The immediate expensive of capital investment. This is huge for business So if you're buying capital equipment if you're buying plants or equipment or software even You will be able to immediately expense those items from a tax perspective not a tiny one It's incorrect That those are two separate things but yes. a tax perspective and so all of these things get pulled together in this bill And there are a lot of there's a lot of debate and questions out there as to what does this mean You know like you add those things up that's probably a four or five hundred billion dollar annual stimulus To the economy
他在竞选时谈到的所有额外减税措施。对小费免税，对加班费免税，对社保免税，对资本投资的直接费用，这对企业来说非常重要。也就是说，如果你购买资本设备、工厂、设备或软件，企业可以从税务的角度立刻抵扣这些项目的费用。这是一个重大变化，并非小事。这样的措施被纳入这项法案中，引发了大量的讨论和疑问：这些措施意味着什么？如果把这些都加起来，每年可能会对经济产生四五千亿美元的刺激作用。
But wait, I know I know a lot of people talked about this But they got to put a cap on this tax on tips thing because it's going to leave a loophole that Everybody and their brother will walk through so it needs to just be some cap that won't hit I think it's diminimous tips. I think it's diminimous tips Because I think you just read redefine your consulting company as all tips correct correct So yes, I think they already have that in there. They've done a lot of work on this
但是等等，我知道我知道很多人都谈过这个问题，但他们必须对小费征税这件事设个上限，因为这会留下一个每个人都会钻的漏洞，所以需要设一个上限，不会影响到我认为是微不足道的小费。我认为是微不足道的小费，因为我认为你可以把你的咨询公司重定义为都是小费，对吧，对吧。所以是的，我想他们已经把这个考虑进去了，他们在这方面做了很多工作。
So remember the two people in the house that are relevant here you have the speaker Mike Johnson you have Jason Smith the chairman of the ways and means committee obviously everybody's relevant But those are the two leaders in the Senate its Senate its leader Thune and it's It's Mike Crapos the chairman of the Senate Finance Committee and then in the House or in the White House You have Kevin Hassett and Scott Besson so the six of them think of them as the big six They're putting together this package.
所以请记住，这里相关的房子里的两个人是发言人迈克·约翰逊和筹款委员会主席杰森·史密斯，显然每个人都很重要，但这两位是领导者。在参议院，有参议院领导人图恩和参议院财政委员会主席迈克·克拉波。在众议院或白宫，有凯文·哈西特和斯科特·贝森。把他们六个人视为“大六人组”，他们正在一起制定这个方案。
They each have a list of their priorities And then they get together and negotiate those priorities We don't even know exactly what's going to be in the House bill yet let alone what's going to survive in the Senate But we certainly have the contours of what's going to be in it And you know, I saw this morning that the council of economic advisors, which of course is in the White House Is saying yes, although this will increase our spending our cbos scoring because the taxes cost money the tax cuts cost money It also will lead to much higher economic growth than we would have otherwise had and so that's a normal argument That you see out of of those who support tax cuts and we're used to
他们各自列出了自己的优先事项，然后聚在一起协商这些优先事项。我们甚至还不知道众议院的法案具体会包括什么，更不用说最终在参议院中能够保留下来的内容。但是我们可以看到法案的大致框架。我今天早上看到经济顾问委员会，也就是位于白宫的机构，说虽然这样会增加我们的支出和预算办公室的评分，因为税收减少需要花钱，但这也会带来比我们原来预期更高的经济增长，所以这是支持减税的人常用的论点，我们对此已经习惯了。
Well, of course, we're you know higher taxes lower economic growth lower taxes higher economic growth I think I'm firmly in that camp, but I do worry That you know, we had just had a 2.2 trillion dollar deficit You know, we have a 38 trillion dollar debt We all got excited about Elon and Doge being able to cut a lot of costs out of government But I suspect when you look at this package right and again, I'm just saying Based upon how the congressional budget office will score it and this is kind of arcane scoring But it will probably increase the deficit and at best it would reduce it by 100 or 200 billion dollars Depending upon what where our economic growth comes in
当然，我们都知道，高税收会导致经济增长放缓，而低税收会促进经济增长。我坚信这一点。但是我担心，我们刚刚出现了2.2万亿美元的预算赤字，还有38万亿美元的债务。大家都对埃隆·马斯克和狗狗币能否削减大量政府成本感到兴奋，但我怀疑，当你查看这个方案时，根据国会预算办公室的评估方式——这是一种比较复杂的评估——它可能会增加赤字。即便在最好的情况下，也只会减少1000亿到2000亿美元，具体取决于我们的经济增长状况。
bill right? Obviously if you have higher economic growth You have higher tax revenues and so there's a huge benefit to drive higher economic growth for the country But there are no big areas where we're taking out 500 billion or 700 billion or a trillion dollars And I think that when you look at the tariff revenue a couple things a couple nuances here We talked about the tariff revenue being 300 billion dollars. They don't count that in the budget Okay, so think of that as as part of your cash flow But it's not really in your in your P&L for the year And so that's just one of these esoteric Washington things You know, it is money to the federal government to the US Treasury
当然，如果经济增长较快，财政收入也会增加，因此推动国家经济增长有巨大的好处。但是我们并没有从某些大领域削减5000亿、7000亿或1万亿美元。关于关税收入，有几点我们需要注意。我们提到关税收入是3000亿美元，但这部分并没有计入预算中。所以可以把它当作现金流的一部分，但实际上并没有反映在年度损益表上。这就是华盛顿的一些复杂事情之一。确实，这些钱是流向联邦政府，即美国财政部的。
But it's not included as part of our budget scoring. I think another thing is the Doge cuts Those are real there are bunch of real cuts coming you know coming to fruition I don't know what those will total maybe a hundred billion dollars But they're not going to be counted in the budget bill unless there's an article of recision So the White House basically has to get Congress to agree to rescind the monies And so that hasn't happened yet. So those cuts are not also not added into the budget the budget math that we're seeing
但这部分不包括在我们的预算评分中。我认为另一件事是关于削减的实际情况。真的会有很多削减会实现，但我不知道这些削减总共会是多少，可能是千亿美元。不过除非有撤资条款，否则它们不会被计入预算案中。因此，白宫基本上需要让国会同意撤销这些资金，这件事情目前还没有发生。所以这些削减也没有被加入到我们所看到的预算计算中。
But people should not get their hopes up that they're going to wake up next year and that our budget deficit is going to magically be You know cut by 50%. I don't see that in the cards. You know one thing I would reiterate just because it would be such an amazing scenario There was a moment in time in the past six months where Trump mentioned potentially Discussing with China and Russia cutting all of our military budgets in half. If that were to happen I think it's the biggest thing you possibly deliver as president if things calm down in the middle least. If Ukraine Russia can be taking care of maybe that gets on the table and that could be a big cut. That would meet this agenda.
人们不应该抱有幻想，认为明年醒来时我们的预算赤字就会神奇地减少50%。我看不到这种可能性。有一点我想重申一下，因为这将是一个令人惊讶的情景：过去六个月里，特朗普曾提到可能与中国和俄罗斯讨论将我们所有的军事预算削减一半。如果这真的发生，我认为这是总统能做出的最重大的贡献之一，尤其是在中东局势平息的情况下。如果乌克兰和俄罗斯的问题能够得到解决，这个提议或许可以被提上议程，并带来重大削减。这将符合这一目标。
Our neo-China hawk friends wouldn't like it, but I would like it quite a bit. I think the defense department budget goes up by about a hundred and fifty billion dollars as part of this package and it's about a trillion dollars for the year. And so you know, I don't again Part of the reason we have this challenge is that you know you have You have a lot of members of the house and a lot of members of the Senate and you know, it's just very difficult to Cut our way You know out of this problem and so I do think that and you know freedberg had a good rant on this on the all-in pod I give him a lot of credit for continuing to beat this drum.
我们的新一代中国鹰派朋友可能不会喜欢，但我倒是挺喜欢的。我认为国防部的预算因为这个方案会上涨大约1500亿美元，总体来看这一年的预算大约为1万亿美元。你知道，原因之一是我们面临这个挑战，是因为众议院和参议院有很多成员，要通过削减开支来解决这个问题确实非常困难。因此，我确实认为，你知道，弗里德伯格在“All-In”播客上对此有过精彩的讨论，我非常赞赏他不断坚持这个观点。
I've long supported a balanced budget amendment. I think we have to come up with some structural changes Right that will allow us to get this under control. I would love to believe that we're going to grow our economy at four or five percent per year instead of two percent per year because that would grow our way out of the problem. So but I think that that would be aggressive to forecast that kind of growth. We haven't seen that kind of growth in in a while.
我一直支持平衡预算修正案。我认为我们必须想出一些结构性的改变，以便让我们能控制这一局面。我希望相信我们的经济可以以每年4%或5%的速度增长，而不是2%，因为这样增长的话，我们就能通过发展来解决问题。不过，我认为预测这种增长速度有些激进。我们已经有一段时间没有看到这样的增长了。
One day to point. It's kind of interesting I listened to that same episode and and the team at all-in was talking about potentially monetizing the balance sheet right. The question is are there assets That exist on the United States balance sheet that could be turned into offsets for the For the deficit and One of the things that obviously comes up is land, you know living here in Texas, you know many people probably don't know this. The university system here was don't was granted as a gift years ago 2.1 million acres in the uh in the Permian Basin and wow and that spits off. I believe I could I could have this number wrong But like $894 million a year.
有一天谈到这个话题的时候，我觉得挺有趣的，我听了同一集节目，《All-In》团队在讨论如何可能通过资产负债表来赚钱。问题是，美国的资产负债表上是否有一些资产可以用于抵消赤字。其中显而易见的一项就是土地。比如在德克萨斯生活的人们可能不知道，德克萨斯的大学系统多年前获赠了位于二叠纪盆地的210万英亩土地。哇，这片土地每年带来的收入大约是8.94亿美元，尽管这个数字我可能会记错。
Now the US has way more than 2.1 million acres, but That is an example I guess of an endowment-like situation where land is monetized and creates cash flow. So yeah, so maybe there is something to that well I would say I would say one thing I was I was happy to hear the president say over the course of last couple weeks. He said if we do do anything like that that rather than putting that money in a in a sovereign wealth fund.
现在美国拥有远超过210万英亩的土地，但我想这可以作为一种类似捐赠基金的例子，即通过土地货币化来产生现金流。所以，我觉得这样的做法可能确实有其道理。在过去几周里，我很高兴听到总统谈到这个问题。他说，如果我们真的采取这样的措施，与其把这笔钱存入一个主权财富基金，不如采取其他更有效的方式。
We're just going to use it to pay down the debt and you know So now it sounds like the sovereign wealth fund is on the back burner, which I think is a good idea to put it on the back burner. And I do think that we ought to have a task force in this country Specifically coming up with ideas for how we achieve deficit reduction and debt reduction and monetizing the balance sheet should be one of the things on The list to be discussed Along with other mechanisms to allow us to have permanent you know cuts things like the defense stuff that you're talking about bill.
我们只是打算用它来偿还债务。你知道，现在看来主权财富基金的计划被搁置了，我认为这是个好主意。而且我认为我们应该在这个国家成立一个专门的工作小组，具体提出如何实现减少赤字和债务的想法，其中一项应包括把资产表货币化，此外还要讨论其他机制，以实现永久性削减，比如你提到的国防开支等。
I think everything has to be on the table. We have to come up with a plan that over a reasonable period of time. Let's go at 10 years Even like a family, you know, you put them on a path you start small and you work your way over a longer period of time Toward deficit reduction, but I think it is morally unacceptable to saddle our kids With what will be over 50 trillion dollars in debt that we you know We effectively increased our quality of living during our lifetimes And it will only hurt theirs because we're saddling them with that big pile of debt.
我认为我们必须把所有选项都摆在桌面上，我们需要制定一个合理时间范围内的计划。就用10年作为参考。就像一个家庭一样，你知道的，我们从小处着手，并在较长的时间跨度内逐步走向削减赤字。但是，我认为让我们的孩子背负50多万亿美元的债务是道德上不可接受的。我们在有生之年提高了生活质量，而这将会因为让他们背负如此巨额的债务而对他们造成伤害。
We got to get about to Wittling away at that debt and hopefully we can get it done in the next couple years. Hot topic always on on in Silicon Valley is carried interest on the table here I think I mean the president has come out in support of of eliminating in support is a port of eliminating carried interest as well as you heard him come out in support of Raising taxes on the highest earners. I don't know the last I heard neither of those provisions Um are in the house version of the reconciliation bill they may get at it in the Senate.
我们必须开始努力减少那笔债务，希望可以在未来几年内解决这个问题。在硅谷，热门话题之一总是关于可变利息的问题。我认为，总统已经表示支持消除可变利息，并且他也支持提高最高收入者的税收。不过，据我了解到的最新情况，这些条款都没有被纳入众议院版本的和解法案中，可能会在参议院中被加入。
But I think those are are fairly controversial remember Republicans generally in the house in Senate they're against tariffs and they're against higher taxes and they're against all taxes You know all forms of higher taxes whether on all these different brackets And you know, I heard somebody come out and say you know, maybe it was Philippe on the all-impot He was saying in New York all in he pays 57% in taxes, which is I think what I pay in the state of California There is a tipping point right people are familiar with the laugh or curve at some point taxes go up to a point Where your tax revenues actually go down Right and so I would argue that at 57% all in for the highest earners You're getting to that point where you disincentivize additional work Right and and you know, we may not be there yet and you know You may be able to increase that tax bracket even more
我认为这些问题相当有争议。一般来说，共和党人通常反对关税和提高税收，反对所有形式的高税收，无论是针对哪个收入等级的税收。我听到有人说，也许是Philippe说的，在纽约总税率可以达到57%，这和我在加州所缴纳的税率差不多。这里有一个临界点，人们熟悉的拉弗曲线表明，税率提高到一定程度后，实际的税收收入反而会减少。我认为，对于最高收入者来说，57%的总税率就达到了那个临界点，会使人们对额外工作的积极性降低。不过，我们可能还没有达到那个点，也许可以进一步提高那个税率等级。
But I would love to think that our country could come up with more creative solutions to solving our debt and and fiscal crisis than just raising taxes it seems like the easy way out And I think there's a better way in fact I I'm happy to report That you know, one of the things that got included in the house version of reconciliation bill Was invest America and you know one of the purposes of taxes on high earners is is redistribution And I think there's a much better way to achieve redistribution and that's by getting everybody in the game From birth. So there was a it was a huge breakthrough bill that we got invest America included in the house version of the bill
但我希望我们的国家能提出更具创意的解决方案来解决债务和财政危机，而不是仅仅提高税收，因为这似乎是个简单的办法。我认为有更好的方法。实际上，我很高兴地报告，在众议院的协调法案版本中，有一个名为“投资美国”的计划被纳入其中。对高收入者征税的一个目的是财富再分配，但我认为实现再分配有更好的方法，那就是让每个人从出生开始就参与其中。所以，我们在众议院版的法案中成功纳入了这个重大的突破性法案“投资美国”。
Well, congratulations, Brett. I I will tell you you know, I've talked to people that have you know pivoted later in life and dedicate themselves to philanthropy and the the number one Thing I hear from all of them is how heart things are and how slow things move and so for you to To tilt at this and get it included So quickly and and DC time this is ultra quick is a huge accomplishment. So Thanks for that. We're not we're not done yet I would say I would say this maybe just a little behind the scenes on it bill because listen This is all new to me and I learned a lot as most people know I started invest America The not for profit about two and a half years ago. The idea was very simple That we needed to attack the wealth gap we needed everybody to feel like they were part of the system And the way to do that was through the magic of compounding.
好的，祝贺你，Brett。我想告诉你，我与一些在年纪较大时转向慈善事业的人交流过，他们都提到事情有多艰难，进展有多缓慢。因此，你能够在这么短的时间内完成这项工作，在华盛顿的时间尺度上，这已经是一个巨大的成就。所以感谢你。当然，我们的工作还没结束。也许我可以透露一些幕后故事，因为对我来说这是全新的领域，我学到了很多。大家知道，我在大约两年半前成立了一个名为"投资美国"的非营利组织。这个想法很简单，我们需要解决财富差距的问题，让每个人都感觉自己是这个体系的一部分，而实现这一目标的方法就是利用复利的魔力。
So it's a thousand dollars Every child born in America there are three point seven million kids born a year would get a thousand dollars in a seed investment account in the S&P 500 It would act like a 401k from birth and then companies and parents and you know in others Church groups whatever could add to those accounts such that by the age of 18 you could have about $50,000 in that account at age 30 you could have about $150,000 in the account you couldn't take the money out you couldn't trade it It would really just be that 401k from birth And I will tell you and you've heard me talk about this on the show It had such high product market fit bipartisan From the left to the right I thought to myself maybe this could actually happen
所以，每个在美国出生的孩子会在标普500的种子投资账户中获得1000美元。每年有370万孩子出生，相当于从出生起就拥有一个401k计划。公司、父母以及其他组织，比如教会团体，可以为这些账户追加资金。这样到18岁时，账户中可以有大约5万美元，到30岁时大约有15万美元。这笔钱不能被随意取出或交易，它就是孩子一出生起的401k计划。我一直认为这项目非常契合市场需求，并且在左右两翼都有支持。我心想，也许这个想法真的有可能实现。
So I was in Washington two weeks ago. I was at the White House I was on the on Capitol Hill meeting with the speaker meeting with Jason Smith They had a ways of means and my friends Ted Cruz and and and Mike Crapo and and others over in the over in the Senate I have to say I was actually surprised That by the time I landed in the Middle East I heard it had been included now of course They they tinker with it, right? One of the one of the things I learned is you lose ball control So the the name of this was invest America in the house version of the bill They renamed it the maga account which stood for money account for growth and advancement
所以我两周前去了华盛顿。我去了白宫，也去了国会山，见了众议院议长和众议员杰森·史密斯，他们负责税务委员会，还见了我的朋友们，比如参议员特德·克鲁兹和迈克·克雷波等其他几位参议员。我得说，当我抵达中东时，听说那件事已经被纳入其中，我感到有些惊讶。当然，他们会对其进行一些调整。我了解到的一点是，你无法完全控制所有细节。这个法案在众议院的版本中原名是“投资美国”，但他们把它重命名为“马加账户”，意思是“促进增长与进步的资金账户”。
But as you and I both know Maga account the minds of many is is deeply polarizing So we'll see what happens. I think when it goes to the Senate it may very well get amended and renamed back to invest America accounts I imagine some changes will occur there they'll agree on Ultimately what the rules are around distribution of this but the great news is this whatever you call it Whatever you call this at the end of the day If we do this and we launch us in 2026 a thousand bucks for every kid born in America We get every kid from rural Texas to rural Indiana to inner city Trenton to the east side of LA You get them into the game They can open up their phone and see that they own a little bit of Berkshire Hathaway They own a little bit of Microsoft a little bit of Apple They feel like they have a shot at the American dream.
但是，正如你我都知道的那样，MAGA（让美国再次伟大）账户在许多人心中是一个非常有争议的话题，所以我们将看看事情如何发展。我认为当它进入参议院时，很可能会被修改并恢复原名为“投资美国账户”。我想可能会有一些变化，他们会对分配规则达成一致。但好消息是，无论你怎么称呼它，如果我们真的这样做，并在2026年推出，给每一个在美国出生的孩子发1000美元，从德克萨斯州的乡村到印第安纳州的乡村，到特伦顿市中心，再到洛杉矶东部，你都能让他们参与进来。他们可以打开手机，看到自己拥有一点伯克希尔·哈撒韦的股份，一点微软的股份，一点苹果的股份，他们会觉得自己有机会实现美国梦。
I think it's a game changer for the country And so the president weighed in here with uh with the speaker of the house said he would like to see it in the bill That's what eventually broke the log jamming and got it in there and so we're working really closely and and I hope by the end of the day I really deeply deeply would love to see this be something that unites the country Right this disproportionately benefits the 60 to 70% of people who are left out and left behind Right and and those are folks it doesn't matter the color of their skin It doesn't matter where they live there are poor folks everywhere people who will never have a shot at an account that compounds This is an absolute game changer for those people and it unlocks their human potential I think you know, I know why I have a ton of democratic friends in the senate and the house who support this.
我认为这对国家来说是一个改变游戏规则的举措。总统与众议院议长讨论过，并表示希望将这项措施纳入法案。这就是最终打破僵局并成功加入法案的原因。因此，我们正在密切合作，希望到今天结束时，我真的非常希望看到这成为团结国家的一件事。这项措施将不成比例地惠及被忽视和落后的60%到70%的人。这些人不分肤色，无论居住在哪里——贫困存在于各地，他们是那些从未有机会享受复利账户的人。对这些人而言，这绝对是一个改变游戏规则的机会，能够释放他们的潜力。我有很多在参议院和众议院的民主党朋友，他们支持这一举措。
I think if we If everybody reaches across the aisle in the spill spirit a bipartisanship You know, we we can get it done in even a bigger Unified fashion, but either way We're thrilled it's in the house version. We hope the senate We'll take it up which we expect that they will and and we hope it's in the final version of the reconciliation bill Be game changer for the country Awesome congratulations Thanks brother.
我认为，如果每个人都本着两党合作的精神跨越分歧，我们能够以更加统一的方式完成这项工作。不过，不管怎样，我们很高兴这项内容已经写入众议院版本。我们希望参议院也能进行讨论，并期望它能纳入最终的和解法案中，这将对国家产生重大影响。太棒了，祝贺你！谢谢，兄弟。
Well, you know a couple speed round topics then One is our good friend Kathleen McCormick, you know that chancellor in in the state of Delaware Bill who overturned the the Elon pay package. Yes, right she she caused this Firestorm in Delaware that literally is going to potentially bankrupt the state with every company in the state of Delaware Now heading for the exits because they don't want to be a part of You know this capricious decision making by the Delaware court of chance or he and I know that you have some updated thoughts based on some stuff you've been reading.
好的，你知道一些快速讨论的话题。一个是我们熟悉的朋友凯瑟琳·麦考密克，你知道她是在特拉华州推翻埃隆薪酬方案的总监。是的，她在特拉华州引发了一场风暴，这场风暴可能会使该州破产，因为州内的每家公司都准备退出，因为他们不想参与特拉华衡平法院的这种随意决策。我知道你基于最近读的一些材料，有一些新的想法。
Yeah, well, I I was made aware of something that I want to share with all the readers and I would think we're gonna put a A pointer in the in the show notes and I'd encourage him to go read it So there's a professor at Stanford named Joe grunt fest who I've known for many decades now and Joe is a former Commissioner at the SEC. He was appointed by Reagan He is the Creator of the Stanford directors college, which I think most people consider to be the number one directors college in the world.
好的，我了解到了一些信息，想和所有读者分享。我想我们会在节目笔记中加入一个链接，我鼓励大家去阅读。有一位斯坦福大学的教授叫乔·格伦特费斯特，我认识他已经很多年了。他曾是美国证券交易委员会的委员，由里根总统任命。他是斯坦福董事学院的创始人，而这个学院被大多数人认为是世界顶尖的董事学院。
This is where if you're an independent director you go and you learn how to be a better director He's considered to be one of the most knowledgeable People on the planet when it comes to corporate governance and air anytime I've ever had an issue And and there've been been some that I've really needed help on I've always called Joe And he's had me speak at some of his classes. He's just a wonderful individual He recently and I mean may 14th recently Published a piece of research that I think is just super interesting and that everyone needs to understand and what he highlights is That the award multiples and and apparently there's a thing when in business litigation where the judge can decide what multiple of the standard hourly rate a Lawyer should or is able to get and which is initially in concept I don't know that anyone else gets awards as a multiple, but I'm sure a lawyer wrote it and the base rates pretty high right.
这是一个地方，如果你是一名独立董事，你可以在那里学习如何成为更优秀的董事。 他被认为是全球在公司治理方面最有知识的人之一。在我遇到任何问题的时候，特别是那些我确实需要帮助的问题，我总是会找乔（Joe）寻求帮助。他曾邀请我在他的某些课堂上演讲。他是个非常出色的人。他最近——我指的是5月14日——发表了一篇我认为非常有趣的研究，所有人都应该了解。他强调的是，在商业诉讼中，法官可以决定律师应获得多少倍的标准小时费率的奖励，这是一个奖赏倍数。在这个概念上，我不确定是否有人以倍数的形式得到奖励，但我确信这是一位律师写的，因为基本费率本身就已经很高了。
So anyway What he found was he compared a bunch of Delaware judgments with a bunch of judgments in the felt and the federal courts And he looked at he looked at a bunch of different breaking but but one of the breaks was you know, what's the frequency of awards Seven times or higher and what are the frequency of awards ten times or higher And what he found is in Delaware Seven times or higher is 23 times more likely than in a federal court and ten times or higher is 57 times or higher than in a federal court.
他比较了大量特拉华州的判决和联邦法院的判决，进行了一项研究。他查看了多个不同的标准，其中一个标准是：判决高出原告要求金额的七倍或更高的频率，以及判决高出十倍或更高的频率。他发现，在特拉华州，判决金额高出七倍或更多的概率是联邦法院的23倍，而判决金额高出十倍或更多的概率则是联邦法院的57倍。
You know, basically if you would you'd say there might be a tale of scenarios where a judgment deserves some kind of outlandish You know result some level of fraud or whatever but but what he's showing is there's an activist mentality in the Delaware courts That they're that they're giving out these super high payouts at a much more frequent and you know 23 times and 57 times more than at the federal level and so I The the big eye opener to me is first of all I would tell everyone to go read this But if you're sitting on a board of a Delaware court and you're not aware that this and this is new This is these are all cases between 2009 and 2024.
你知道，基本上可以说，在某些情况下，判决可能会导致一些极端的结果，比如涉及某种程度的欺诈等。但是，他指出，特拉华州的法院中存在一种激进的心态，他们更频繁地发放超高额赔偿，比联邦法院高出23倍甚至57倍。对我来说，这令人震惊的地方在于，我建议大家都去了解一下这些情况。如果你是特拉华州法院董事会的一员而对此毫不知情，那就太落伍了。这其中涉及的都是2009到2024年之间的案例。
If you're not aware that this is going on that the rewards they're being paid out to lawyers You know for cases in Delaware are increasing at this level and are being paid out much more frequently at very high payouts You need to be aware of this to me. This is you know more damning than just the one Tesla thing It says that Delaware Delaware was known as a place where you had you know We talked earlier about terraced in chaos and calmness Delaware was a place that was supposed to be business calm where you didn't expect. chaos, right? This shows that chaos is being built into the system and it's a recent It's a recent development one more thing that I want to highlight it turns out that in the 20 cases where you have this This super high multiplier 55% of the cases are just two of the judges and There's something else that that I learned in reading this which I didn't know But the chancellor Who is one of the two gets to pick who the cases are assigned to and so The chancellor's creating these super high multiples and then the chancellor's in charge of handing cases.
如果你还不知道这一点，就是在特拉华州，律师的案件奖励水平正在增加，并且这些奖励被更频繁地支付，金额也非常高，那么你需要对此有所了解。在我看来，这比特斯拉的那个事件还要严重。特拉华州原本被认为是一个提供商业平稳环境的地方，在这里你不太会预料到混乱。但是，这表明混乱正在被嵌入系统中，而且这是最近才发生的发展。我还想强调一点，在20个获得超高倍数奖励的案件中，有55%是由两位法官裁定的。我在读到这一点时还学到了另一件我之前不知道的事情，就是其中一位法官——总法官，实际上可以决定案件分配给谁。因此，正是总法官在制造这些超高倍数的案件，同时又负责分派案件。
And and she could hand them to herself or to this other judge Who's also doing the same thing and so I I just I think eyes wide open. I mean I read this and I think you know any company that I'm involved with I'm going to encourage to leave Because this is radically different than why I was told we were supposed to go to Delaware and Built these awards go to who they go to the lawyers and they go to whoever the plaintiffs are well get this I mean you know we've talked about this So I don't need to like pound the table on it But in the Tesla case the plaintiff had nine shares Like the plaintiff made zero money on a relative basis right right and the lawyers made 380 million or 345 or something like that and yeah, you had you had a plaintiff that Didn't get any recovery like like why should we have Laws any any law in this country because Pagga works this way in California Where a lawyer gets to come in and make a huge like shouldn't a shouldn't a lawyer fee be a Small percentage of the plaintiff fee Why why should it be 99% of of the fee makes no sense.
她可以把这些交给自己或者另一个也在做同样事情的法官。我读了这个后觉得要睁大眼睛，我会劝我参与的任何公司离开，因为这与我之前被告知我们应该去特拉华的理由完全不同。通常这些奖项都会给到律师或者原告，但在特斯拉的案子中，原告只有九股股票，没有赚到钱，而律师费却高达3.45亿或3.8亿左右。原告几乎没有任何补偿，为什么我们的法律会这样运行呢？在加州的PAGA案子中，律师可以进来赚大钱，难道律师费不应该是原告费用的一小部分吗？为什么它会占99%，这完全没有道理。
I mean, I think the significance here is that what you're arguing is What tends to happen is people heard about the Elon case they treated as a one-off They may not have made any changes and what you're saying is that this was not a one-off in the state of Delaware This is a structural problem that is emerged in the state of Delaware Which was the state that everybody went to incorporated in because they thought it had the most predictability And now you have a study that shows not only does it not have the most predictability It actually has the greatest risk of long tail Adverse outcomes to you know to the company that are highly unpredictable Correct, and I would encourage it will put the link in there not all tweeted out after we post the podcast.
我的意思是，我认为这里的重点是你所说的情况。通常，大家听说过埃隆的那个案子，会把它当作一个个案来看待，所以可能没有做出任何改变。而你说的是，这并不是特拉华州的一个个案，而是特拉华州出现的一个结构性问题。特拉华州曾是大家竞相注册公司的地方，因为大家认为那里提供了最高的可预测性。然而现在，你有一项研究表明，特拉华州不仅不具备最高的可预测性，实际上，它对公司而言存在着高度不可预测的长期负面风险。对吗？我建议在发布播客后，我们可以在里面放上链接，我会在推特上分享。
But I would encourage everyone to go read that and following on that and trying to keep with what you just said about speed round last week, you know the two states people say you should consider other than Delaware or Texas and Nevada well last week Texas state legislature passed a bill senate bill 29 trying to improve Texas's position if you will in this competition with Nevada on where you should go to and I just wanted to mention a couple things that they put in there to To hopefully you know make Texas better which would make everyone better if they choose to incorporate there The the first thing was they codified the business judgment rule there in some of these states You can hop around the business judgment rule this put a hard line and said no you're not supposed to you can't hop around The business judgment rule and people that know what that means that's a that's a positive for businesses.
我鼓励大家去阅读那个内容，之后继续关注，尝试保持你刚才所说的关于上周快速讨论的话题。你知道，除了特拉华州，人们还建议考虑德克萨斯州和内华达州。上周，德克萨斯州议会通过了参议院第29号法案，试图在与内华达州的竞争中改善德州的地位，关于这方面我想提几个他们加入的内容，希望能让德克萨斯州更具吸引力，这样如果企业选择在那里注册，对所有人都有好处。
首先，他们在那里的法律中明确了商业判断规则。在某些州，这个规则可以灵活处理，但他们在这里设定了明确的界限，表示不允许这样灵活处理。了解这个规则的人会知道，这对企业来说是个利好。
The second thing they did was the lint they put a limit on opportunistic legal claims Some of that has to do with with the multiple point that we talked about but the big thing they did was in You can in your corporate docs put up put a minimum threshold of up to 3% on what's needed to bring a derivative action So you can basically say In order to bring a derivative action you need 3% of the shareholders outstanding So this Tesla situation where you basically You know just called around and found someone that held nine shares which is just Like ridiculous at face value right did someone brought a whole case on a plane if with nine shares makes No effincense whatsoever and this gets rid of that and so I think that's huge.
他们做的第二件事是对机会主义的法律诉讼设定了限制。部分原因与我们之前讨论的多个方面有关，但他们做的最重要的事情是：你可以在公司的文件中设定一个最低门槛，例如需要持有至少3%股份的股东才能提起派生诉讼。也就是说，你可以规定要提起派生诉讼需要获得至少3%的流通股东的支持。因此，那种类似特斯拉的情况——有人可能随便打电话找到持有九股的股东提起诉讼——就显得非常荒谬。举个例子，有人仅凭九股就提起了一个案件，这是毫无意义的。而这样的规定将杜绝此类情况的发生，我认为这是一个重要的改进。
So so so so basically you're flying the Texas flag and saying not only is is Delaware more capricious than we otherwise thought more Activist than we otherwise thought but that in fact it's leading to new laws in states like Texas and Nevada that are going the further distance to try to encourage Companies to come there and they're giving them predictability not in the courtroom But they're giving them predictability in the code Yes, and and there's a few more quick things you can in in your documents You can make it very clear that the new Texas business courts are the only place that you'll have to appear You can wave jury trials. There's some limitations on on book and record request if you've ever been Deposed sometimes they grab everything and this will limit that too So there's other little things but those first two things are the big things and and you know I'm I'm really trying to look after everybody and and all the starter up south they're all the venture-back companies.
基本上，你们正在高举德克萨斯的旗帜，不仅指出特拉华州比我们原以为的更为多变和激进，实际上也导致了一些州（例如德克萨斯和内华达）制定了新的法律。这些法律努力吸引公司前来，给予他们在法律框架中的可预测性，而不是在法庭中。
是的，还有一些其他的细节。在你的文件中，你可以非常明确地写明，德克萨斯的新商业法庭将是唯一需要出庭的地方。你可以放弃陪审团审判，而且在查看书籍和记录请求上也有限制。如果你曾被传讯过，他们有时会搜集所有资料，而这些限制将对此有所限制。这些都是一些小细节，但前两点是最重要的，我的目的是为了照顾每个人，尤其是所有初创公司和风险投资支持的公司。
You know if if if Nevada wants to raise the bar and and wants to send us some information I'd be glad to share that as well I think the important thing is to get out of Delaware Well, the truth is Bill after this case I will bet you That inertia kicked in and 90 plus percent of companies and lawyers and you know Went back to incorporating the state of Delaware because that's just a way that momentum and inertia world And I think that it's important that you continue to beat the drum that people understand and you know We're gonna we're gonna put a link to this study that people understand that this was not And I think the onus the burden is on the state of Delaware like we're not trying to unfairly attack the state of Delaware But the onus and burden is on the state of Delaware to explain and make the case as to how they're going to change their system To provide the predictability and the protection that people thought they were getting that clearly they're not getting there.
如果内华达州想要提高标准，并愿意提供一些信息给我们，我也很乐意分享。我认为重要的是要走出特拉华州。实际上，比尔，在这个案子之后，我敢打赌，90%以上的公司和律师很可能就因为惯性又回到特拉华州注册，因为这就是惯性和动能在起作用。我认为重要的是要继续强调这一点，让大家明白问题所在。我们会给这项研究提供一个链接，让大家明白事情并不是表面上那样。我认为责任在于特拉华州，我们并不是想无理攻击特拉华州，但他们需要解释并证明他们将如何改变系统，以提供人们以为他们能在那得到但实际上并没有得到的确定性和保护。
Maybe to continue on bill in in the speed round here There's been a ton of momentum Recently in in crypto and you you set me a paper that was recently written Yes You know in this regard Why don't you tell us about it and then I want to talk for a second about the genius act and the stablecoin legislation That took a major step forward last night. I was told to read something and I'm holding it right here There's a there's a member of the SEC Hescker Pierce who all the the crypto people love dearly because she's been very outspoken in her support of crypto She's actually the longest serving member of the SEC at this point time But but she put out a paper on May 8th called a creative and cooperative balancing act and I was surprised You know, and it's not that long. It won't you go read it's five pages But she makes a very strong argument that there's a that the crypto and blockchain specifically Maybe a better mechanism for tracking securities including the securization of companies.
也许我们可以继续讨论账单内容，最近在加密货币领域有了大量的动向。你给我发了一篇最近写的文章，是关于这个话题的。你能告诉我们这篇文章的内容吗？然后我想花一点时间谈谈天才法案和稳定币立法，这些昨天晚上都迈出了重要一步。我被告知要阅读一些内容，我现在手上拿着。这是一位名叫赫丝克·皮尔斯的美国证券交易委员会（SEC）成员写的文章，所有加密货币爱好者都非常喜爱她，因为她一直非常支持加密货币。她目前是美国证券交易委员会任职时间最长的成员。她在5月8日发表了一篇题为《创造性与合作性平衡行动》的文章。我感到惊讶，因为它并不长，只有五页，你可以去读一读。她在文章中提出了一个非常有力的观点，认为加密货币和区块链的确可能是更好的机制，用于追踪证券，包括公司证券化。
She goes on to to say that you know, you can have regulatory capture that can unfairly protect people Those that regulatory capture may lead to market fragility because you end up with a single player or just two players And she even suggests maybe there should be a regulatory sandbox which would mean Let some people play around with this before you jump on top of them and kill them I've been this huge dl proponent and I and I do believe That you know the number of public companies she also brings that up the number of public companies is way down from its peak That could relate to regulation But I also think it relates to inefficiency in our markets and our IPO process So I haven't I haven't been a big crypto bull, but I'm gonna pay attention to this. This is interesting to me.
她接着说，监管俘获可以不公平地保护某些人，而这种情况可能导致市场脆弱性，因为最终市场上可能只剩下一家或两家参与者。她甚至建议或许应该有一个"监管沙箱"，这样可以让一些人在受到严格监管和限制之前，先自由尝试和探索。我一直是分布式账本（DL）技术的坚定支持者，我确实相信这一点。她也提到公众公司的数量已经从高峰期大幅下降，这可能与监管有关。但我也认为这与我们市场和首次公开募股（IPO）流程中的低效问题有关。虽然我向来不是加密货币的热衷者，但我会关注这件事，因为我觉得这很有趣。
Well, I mean in that regard I think it may be time for you to revisit your crypto bullishness barisness thesis. Yes, because the genius bill The genius act as it's called which is pretty historic legislation which effectively Crossed a hurdle in the Senate last night that I think now puts it on a fast track To being signed into law. It was led by my friend senator bill haggardy in the Senate He's just done an unbelievable job You know waging this battle to basically say you know we've been persecuting Now for the last four years everybody involved in crypto and rather than doing that Why don't we just bring it under the federal regulatory auspices and whatever we need in terms of protections Put the protections in the place and then allow this innovation to occur in the United States.
好的，我的意思是，在这个方面，我认为你可能需要重新审视一下你对加密货币的看好或悲观看法。是的，因为被称为“天才法案”的法案在参议院通过了一项重大立法障碍，这在昨晚通过参议院后，我认为现在正快速进入签署为法律的过程。该法案由我的朋友，比尔·哈格蒂参议员在参议院领导，他在这场斗争中表现得非常出色。他的理念基本上是，过去四年我们对所有参与加密货币的人进行了打压，与其继续这样，不如将其纳入联邦监管的范围，提供必要的保护措施，然后允许这种创新在美国发生。
So in the case of stable coins We know that this could be the next generation of Of of of of money management right of of of financial transfers of updating the rails on which our financial system Has been billed over the course of last 40 years and it was beginning to develop in other parts of the country or other parts of the world Because we had not developed a system That people felt comfortable innovating in so what is it. what is the legislation requires number one It requires specific reserve backing so it requires stable coin issues to maintain Reserves equal to the value of their issued tokens Number two it provides regulatory oversight.
因此，在稳定币的情况下，我们知道这可能代表着下一代的资金管理和金融交易方式，有可能更新过去40年来构建的金融体系基础设施。由于我们以前缺乏让人们感到舒适创新的系统，这种发展已经在世界其他地方开始形成。那么，其涉及的立法要求是什么呢？
首先，它要求有特定的储备支持，意即需要稳定币发行方维持与其发行代币等值的储备。
其次，它提供监管监督。
So now you can't have this patchwork of people You know attacking folks who are trying to innovate in this area. It gives them real certainty as As it regards there puts in place a bunch of consumer protections But fundamentally it allows This innovation to occur because it provides certainty and predictability as to the form of regulation I give a lot of credit to mark and Ben and Chris Dixon And in Dreson, you know, I've spent a lot of time on Capitol Hill working on invest American other things and every time I'm there. I see those guys on Capitol Hill working hard On this on the genius act.
现在，你不能再让一群人对那些试图在这一领域创新的人群起攻击了。这项措施为他们提供了真正的确定性，同时也设立了一系列的消费者保护措施。最根本的，它允许创新发生，因为它提供了关于监管形式的确定性和可预测性。我非常赞赏马克、本、克里斯·迪克森以及安德烈森，我在国会山花了很多时间处理投资美国等事务，而每次我在那里时，我都能看到他们为这个“天才法案”努力工作。
I think this is a significant step forward for a financial system It's a significant step forward for crypto But really we ought not think about this as right as crypto in the form of speculation This is really about something that's fundamental To innovating in how money transfers in the world in fact I heard somebody say That in five to ten years Stable-coring issuers will become the biggest holders of US debt on the planet because they have to own that debt to back Right the stable coins the tokens that they're issuing and so think about this bill People today pay ridiculous fees to move money around yes, right between businesses.
我认为这是金融体系的一大进步，也是加密货币领域的一大突破。但其实我们不应该仅仅把它看作是加密货币投机。这实际上是关于如何创新世界上的资金转移方式的基础。我听说有人说，在五到十年内，稳定币发行商将成为全球最大的美国债务持有者，因为他们需要持有这些债务来支持他们发行的稳定币。所以想想这个法案，如今人们在不同企业间转账时花费的费用是非常高的。
I was having this conversation Over dinner the other night with John Collison He's super bullish on this they're getting Into this fast growing part of their business at strike because the reality is if you have two businesses Maybe one in Mexico right small business that's it a scuba business Providing some tourism attraction and you have somebody in the United States who wants to purchase that Rather than having to do you know jump through a bunch of hoops and pay a bunch of fees to a bunch of intermediaries You can just issue stable coins back and forth You can provide seamless providers in the middle of that so it reduces the overall tax burden on the economy Probably leads to higher growth because we're reducing that friction and moves us into the 21st century.
我前几天晚上和John Collison一起吃晚饭时谈到了这个话题。他对这个非常看好，因为他们正在快速进入Stripe业务中这个快速增长的部分。现实情况是，例如你有两个公司，一个在墨西哥，是一个提供旅游景点的潜水公司，另一个在美国，有人想要购买这个服务。与其费尽周折并向许多中介支付费用，不如直接使用稳定币进行交易。这样可以在中间提供无缝的服务，减少整个经济的税务负担，可能会导致更高的增长，因为我们减少了摩擦，并让我们进入了21世纪。
I think that this is just the start you know You mentioned something else the tokenization of IPOs. I think you're going to see the tokenization of of stocks maybe of real assets So a lot of the promises honestly that we heard about bill in 2019 and 2020 in crypto They got me so excited But then they all stalled out and frankly they stalled out because again the Compre-ciousness of regulators They just wanted to attack and shut this down rather than coming up with a regulatory framework That was safe for innovation to occur in we're all in the middle of this AI super cycle But if we look at the way that money is transferred on the internet not much has changed in 25 30 years I think this is a massive breakthrough That is super important and I think it's going to lead to a lot of unlocks a lot of business opportunities And I it's going to be good for consumers.
我认为这只是一个开始。你提到了另一个概念——IPO的代币化。我认为你会看到股票甚至实物资产的代币化。说实话，很多2019年和2020年关于加密货币的承诺让我非常兴奋，但随后它们都停滞不前。坦率地说，原因是监管机构的谨慎性，他们只想着打压和关闭这些创新，而不是制定一个安全的监管框架来促进创新的发生。目前我们正处于人工智能超级周期的中间，但如果我们看看互联网上的资金转移方式，25到30年间并没有太大改变。我认为这是一次重大突破，非常重要，我相信它会带来很多新的机会和商机，而且对于消费者也会有好处。
So credit goes to all the people who have been working on this for for so long Okay, we have a couple more on the list But one I want to ask you about was all this open source development in China Tell me a little bit about what you see in terms of open source there versus some of the activities you see going on here. Yeah I'll put an article in the show notes the one that really caught my eye was there's an article That was about by do and so by do is scheduled to release the latest version of their model in June 30th They pre-announced it for one reason or another and they've switched to open source and When they talked to Robin Lee who who's been the long time Bytey founder met him back in 2005 21 years ago He had originally been a proponent of closed models.
对此工作的所有贡献者表示感谢，因为他们已经为此努力了很长时间。我们还有几个在列表上的项目要讨论，但我想特别询问一下中国的开源开发情况。你能谈谈你所看到的中国开源发展的情况与其他地区活动的不同之处吗？我会在节目说明中附上一篇让我印象深刻的文章， 该文章涉及百度。百度计划在6月30日发布其模型的最新版本，虽然具体原因不明，他们提前宣布将转向开源。当他们与百度的长期创始人李彦宏交谈时，发现他在2005年时是封闭模型的支持者，至今已经过去了21年。
He had spoken out publicly against that and people like well, why are you going open now? And it turns out you know deep seek led to Quinn led to jami has a as their own model as well They've all gone open source. And so this will be the fourth Deep pocket funded Model in China that are all open source and when you consider I mean, this is a competitive dynamic right that leads to that and when you consider that We it's already been proven here in the US that different models can help improve other models having four simultaneous models out there all open source I think is pretty damn interesting and Will be tough to keep up with and I don't know what america should do about it. I mean, I guess I would love it if everyone open AI and anthropic and Google Followed suit and chase meta But I don't see that happening yet and so just from a country versus country standpoint Boy, I think that's powerful for innovation for speed for speed of innovation.
他曾公开反对过这类事情，很多人不理解为什么他现在要改变立场。而事实证明，Deep Seek、Quinn 和 Jami 都推出了自己的开源模型。因此，这将是中国推出的第四个由资本支持的开源模型。要知道，这是一个竞争激烈的动态，因为在美国已经证明，多个模型可以相互促进提升。四个同时存在的开源模型确实非常有趣，让人难以跟上。我不知道美国应该如何应对这一现象。我当然希望 OpenAI、Anthropic 和 Google 能跟随 Meta 的脚步，但目前还没有看到这种迹象。从国家间的竞争来看，我认为这对创新速度有很强的推动作用。
Yeah, I think it's super interesting I mean, you know, I do think you're going to see the open AI open source model. I mean sam's talked about it Many times. I think you're going to see that in the next 30 days or so certainly by the end of summer But I would guess sooner rather than later He's indicated he wants it to be even more open that he wants to be the leading open source model in the US. You and I both read about some of the Challenges may be going on at At met I have no idea if any of those things are true But there's but there's definitely been some blowback about llama four In terms of you know, it's capability So it does it it appears that everybody in China is dedicated to open source and in the US I certainly hope that we have a open source model that leads the world I suspect that we're going to see more of these out of our leading labs.
是啊，我觉得这真的很有趣。我是说，我确实认为你会看到OpenAI的开源模型。Sam已经多次谈到过这个话题。我认为你将在未来30天左右甚至更早看到它，当然在夏末之前肯定会出现。我猜测它会早点出来而不是晚点。Sam表示他希望这个模型更加开放，希望能够成为美国领先的开源模型。你我都读过关于Meta的一些可能存在的挑战，我不确定这些事情是否属实，但确实有关于Llama 4能力的反对声音。在中国，大家似乎都很专注于开源，在美国，我当然希望我们能有一个引领世界的开源模型。我怀疑我们的领先实验室将会推出更多这样的模型。
Elon has also said that they're going to open source a model So I think this is one where we have to stay tuned But the early leadership here probably does go to China Yeah, and I wouldn't be surprised if the people with proprietary models will use these to train them because they're available And and for everyone that that wants to outlaw deep seek Guess what you're playing whack-a-mall because there's four not one Bill one thing I wanted to ask you about you know, feel free to comment on it or not I saw some attacks that I thought were someone unfair on on you around manus You know because I you know, I know I've talked with you about a bit about manus in the background associated with that So would you share with us a little bit you know your perspectives on on manus and maybe benchmarks decisions too?
埃隆还表示，他们打算开源一个模型。所以我认为这是我们需要继续关注的一件事。但在这方面，早期的领导角色可能会属于中国。而且，如果拥有专有模型的人使用这些模型进行训练，我不会感到惊讶，因为它们是可获取的。对于所有想要取缔深度学习模型的人，猜猜看，你在玩打地鼠游戏，因为有很多模型存在，而不仅仅是一个。
比尔，我有一个问题想问你，你可以选择是否评论。我看到一些对你的攻击，我觉得有些不公平，是关于Manus的。你知道，我在幕后和你聊过一些关于Manus的事情。所以你能否和我们分享一下你对Manus的一些看法，也许还有关于Benchmark的决定？
Yes, yeah, so yeah, I was surprised a bunch of people came after me on on the socials as they say And um and they implied a bunch of deep Seated planning and and whatnot and and I think Part of it just comes from I think in not being a China hawk people accuse you of being a scene afile And and there's a lot of room in between those things But one thing I think these people don't know is that I'm no longer a GP on the new funds at benchmark, which means I'm not involved in new investment decisions So I didn't I wasn't part of the decision to invest in manus and I you know found out about it after the fact I'm obviously a big LP at benchmarking I'm a GP and the older funds and and I believe benchmarks So I do support the firm but but but some of the theories involved scenarios that just didn't happen.
是的，是的，没错，我确实感到惊讶，因为在社交媒体上有很多人来批评我，他们暗示我有深层次的计划，等等。我认为部分原因是，如果你不是一个对中国持强硬态度的人，人们就会指责你是亲华派。这两者之间其实有很大的空间。但是我觉得这些人不知道的是，我已经不再是Benchmark新基金的普通合伙人，也就是说我不参与新的投资决策。所以我并没有参与到对Manus的投资决定中，我是在事情发生之后才知道的。我显然是Benchmark 的主要有限合伙人，也是老基金的普通合伙人，我相信Benchmark，所以我支持这家公司。但有些理论涉及的情景根本没有发生。
But but after the fact I went deep on it and I think there are a few things that it would just be good for people to understand About manus. So first of all they've only operated on us models. They're a wrapper company. They don't have a Foundational model and and they've only operated on top of us models So they've actually never operated on top of deep seek or any of the other models We were just talking about The second thing is they have offices around the world. They're in Singapore. They're in Japan. They're in the US. Third, they host all of these on us hosting services And so they're not they're not actually operating any of their customers workloads in China at all at all and the data is all Resident on those US hosting companies servers and so there's no customer data in China either.
在事后我深入了解了一下，我认为有些关于Manus的事情是大家理解起来会有帮助的。首先，他们只在美国的模型上运作。他们是一家包装公司，并没有自己的基础模型，他们只是基于美国的模型进行运作。所以实际上他们从未在Deep Seek或我们刚刚谈到的任何其他模型上运作过。其次，他们在全球各地设有办公室，包括新加坡、日本和美国。第三，他们的所有服务都是基于美国的托管服务，这意味着他们完全不在中国运作任何客户的工作负载，所有数据都存储在这些美国托管公司的服务器上，因此也没有任何客户数据在中国。
And so I think people rush to judgment. I've already spoken about why I think they rush to judgment I think I think I think there's a China hawk tilt among a lot of these people But but things aren't always as they seem and so you know the company has some leading agentech technology I think they have some leading browserless, you know, headless browser technology And they've got a long list of customers that are excited about what they're doing But I just think it's important for people to understand the facts.
我认为人们往往过早下结论。我之前已经谈过为什么会这样，我觉得很多人对中国存在一种鹰派的倾向。但是，事情往往并不像表面上看起来的那样。这个公司拥有一些领先的代理技术和无界面浏览器技术，并且有许多客户对他们的产品很感兴趣。我只是觉得让人们了解事实真相非常重要。
Well, I think another thing is you know, I saw stat the other day I think 50% of researchers AI researchers in the United States of America are Chinese Right like we there is a danger here like what what bothered bothers me about this is I think there's a real danger here in a drift Right that is very xenophobic Right very anti-China that is not Healthy for our own relationship in terms of desirability to work in America if you are if you have a Chinese background.
我最近看到一个统计数据，说美国有50%的AI研究人员是华裔。我觉得这其中存在一个危险，那就是我们可能会走向一种对中国非常排外的态度，这对我们的国际关系不利。这样的氛围对于那些有华人背景的人来说，会让他们不愿意来美国工作。
I think American investors should be free to invest You know in companies Like Manus it can weigh into their decision making everybody's free to choose not to invest in a company like Manus But I think attacking firms Simply because they're investing in this without full information about what it's about I don't know it struck me is as You know jumping the gun a bit and I just think like you said there's a lot of daylight Between being a xenophile and You know being a China hawk and I think that People are entitled to having differences of opinion about the best way forward for team America.
我认为美国投资者应该有自由去投资像Manus这样的公司。这可以影响他们的决策。每个人都有自由选择不投资像Manus这样的公司。但是，我觉得在没有全面了解情况的情况下就简单地攻击这些公司，好像有点过于仓促。我同意你的看法，在崇尚外国文化和对中国持强硬态度之间存在很大的差距。我认为人们应该有权对美国前进的最佳路径持有不同的意见。
You know jensen Wang thinks the United States should be engaged in competing in China And I've said you know for a long time the number one thing we could do Would be to open up our border for skilled immigration from China Is wide as we possibly can I have a recruiting recruiting the best in the brightest. I've talked about an AI visa For our Chinese researchers and their families so they feel comfortable and safe And and and desired to stay in the United States.
你知道，黄仁勋认为美国应该参与到与中国的竞争中。我一直以来都说，我们可以做的第一件事，就是尽可能开放我们的边界，让来自中国的技术移民更容易进入。我一直在努力招募最优秀的人才。我提到过可以为我们的中国研究人员及其家人提供AI签证，让他们在美国感到舒适、安全，并希望留下来。
I don't see people attacking Elon for having Tesla and China or Tim Cook for having Apple and China right The US has benefited greatly from having our companies compete in China In fact if you ask me what's more desirable is to have China open back up to our markets I would love to see our internet companies allowed in China. I would love to see our AI companies allowed in China. I would love to see you know So that form of reciprocity right in a perfect world I'd love to see tariffs come down on both sides and competition allowed more vigorously on both sides.
我并没有看到人们因为埃隆·马斯克在中国有特斯拉或蒂姆·库克在中国有苹果而攻击他们。事实上，美国从我们的企业在中国的竞争中获益良多。其实，如果你问我的话，我更期望的是中国能重新开放我们的市场。我希望我们的互联网公司能进入中国。我希望我们的人工智能公司也能进入中国。在一个理想的世界里，我希望能在彼此之间实现这种互惠。我希望双方的关税都能降低，让竞争更加激烈。
But either either way I saw that I wanted to I wanted to give you the By the way and I mean what you just what you basically just outline was hey We should be doing with China would just happen in the Middle East right and try and get Try and get our differences on the table try and get the things that matter to us on the table But app on the other side of that get everything else in a point of collaborate.
无论如何，我想跟你说，我认为你刚刚描述的东西基本上就是：我们应该对待中国的方式，就像中东最近发生的事情一样。我们应该把分歧摆到桌面上，把对我们重要的事情提出来。但另一方面，我们也应该在其他方面寻求合作。
Right listen I don't think we should be naive China we are in a great power struggle with China. There's no doubt about that There is you know, there are things that we're going to compete like hell on Things that we're going to disagree on drink things where we're going to be strategic adversaries on and things where we say We're not going to give it to you and you're not going to give it to us. That's fine But you know listen.
听我说，我认为我们不应该对中国天真。毫无疑问，我们正在与中国进行一场大国博弈。有一些事情，我们将会展开激烈竞争；有一些事情，我们会有分歧；有些领域，我们会成为战略上的对手，而对于某些东西，我们会彼此拒绝给予。这些都是可以接受的。但是，请你听我说清楚。
I'm on the side of sky best. He said we're not decoupling from China right so so like we need to figure out Where we want to engage and on that plane field we ought to be all in on non strategic trading with China We ought to be all in and we ought to find ways to reduce tariffs and to find more ways Certainly to recruit their best and brightest not only here to be educated, but here to stay and and and help us build great technology.
我更支持天空的观点。他说我们并没有真的与中国脱钩，所以我们需要找到合作的领域。在这些领域中，我们应该全力投入与中国的非战略性贸易。我们应该努力找到降低关税的方法，并且进一步吸引他们的优秀人才，不仅让他们来这里接受教育，还要让他们留下来，帮助我们一起开发出色的技术。
I've been wearing this altimeter hat for over an hour and you haven't come in wrong I did obviously did this just for you You know team altimeter today. I love seeing it love seeing it Well, thanks and good seeing you and and I look forward to seeing you in person next time. All right man. Take care All right, take care As a reminder to everybody just our opinions not investment advice.
我戴着这个高度计帽子已经一个多小时了，你一直没有误会。我显然是专门为你戴的。今天就是“高度计团队”日。我很高兴能看到这一点，真的很高兴看到。谢谢你，很高兴见到你，希望下次能亲自见到你。好的，保重。再见，注意安全。提醒大家，这只是我们的观点，不是投资建议。