AI AGENTS EMERGENCY DEBATE: These Jobs Won't Exist In 24 Months! We Must Prepare For What's Coming!
发布时间 2025-05-12 07:00:30 来源
I think a lot of people don't realize I have massive, positive impact AI is gonna have on their life. Well, I would argue that the idea that this AI disruption doesn't lead us to human catastrophe is optimistic. For example, people are gonna be unemployed in huge numbers. You agree without any? Yes. If your job as a zrotin, as it comes, it's gone in the next couple years. But it's gonna create new opportunities for a restoration. Let me put it to you this way. We've created a new species and nobody on earth can predict what's going to happen. We are joined by three leading voices to debate the most disruptive shift in human history, the rise of AI. And they're answering the questions you're most cared about. This technology is gonna get so much more powerful.
我认为很多人没有意识到人工智能会对他们的生活产生巨大的、积极的影响。我会说，认为人工智能的变革不会导致人类灾难是一种乐观的看法。例如，今后会有大量的人失业。对此你没有异议吧？是的。如果你的工作被人工智能取代，可能在接下来的几年里就会消失。但是，这也会创造新的机会，让我们重新振兴。我这样说吧：我们创造了一个新物种，没有人能真正预测将会发生什么。我们请来了三位领军人物来讨论人类历史上最具颠覆性的变化——人工智能的兴起，他们会回答你最关心的问题。这项技术将变得更加强大。
And yes, we're gonna go through a period of disruption, but yet the other end, we're gonna create a fair world. It's gonna be like people to run their businesses, make a lot of money. And you can solve meaningful problems such as the breakthroughs in global healthcare and education. We'll be phenomenal and you can live an incredibly fulfilling existence. Well, I would just say on that friend, this has always been a fantasy of technologists. To do marvelous things with our spare time, but we end up doom scrolling. Loneliness epidemic. Right, falling birth rates.
是的，我们将经历一个动荡时期，但在另一端，我们会创造一个公平的世界。这会让人们能够经营他们的生意、赚很多钱。你也可以解决诸如全球医疗和教育的突破等有意义的问题。我们将取得非凡成果，你可以过上极其充实的生活。 我只想说，这一直是技术专家的幻想——在闲暇时做出奇妙的事情，但事实是我们常常在网上无休止地刷着负面消息。还有孤独感传播，出生率下降。
So the potential are good here is infinite and potential for bad is 10 times. For example, there's war, undetectable, beatfakes, and scams, so people don't understand how many different ways they are going to be robbed. Look, I don't think blaming technology for all that is the life thing. All these issues, they're already here. We're all fathers here. So what are you saying to a children? Well, first of all, this has always blown my mind a little bit. 53% of you that listen to this show regularly haven't yet subscribed to this show. So could I ask you for a favor before we start? If you like the show and you like what we do here and you want to support us, the free simple way that you can do just that is by hitting the subscribe button.
这里的潜力是无限的，但可能带来的坏处却是潜力的十倍。比如，战争、难以察觉的假视频和骗局，让人们无法理解他们将面临多少种被欺骗的方式。你看，我不认为把所有问题都归咎于技术是正确的。所有这些问题其实早已存在。我们都是父亲，那么你会怎么对孩子们说呢？首先，让我有点意外的是，53%的常听我们节目的观众还没有订阅我们的节目。所以在我们开始之前，我能请求你帮个忙吗？如果你喜欢这个节目，也喜欢我们所做的事情，并希望支持我们，只需点击订阅按钮，就能非常简单且完全免费地做到这一点。
And my commitment to you, as if you do that, that I'll do everything in my power, me and my team, to make sure that this show is better for you every single week. We'll listen to your feedback, we'll find the guess that you want me to speak to, and we'll continue to do what we do. Thank you so much. The reason why I wanted to have this conversation with all of you is because the subject matter of AI, but more specifically AI agents, has occupied my free time for several weeks in a row.
我的承诺是，如果你这样做，我和我的团队将竭尽全力确保这个节目每周都能更好地呈现给你。我们会倾听你的反馈，找到你希望我对话的嘉宾，并继续做好我们正在做的事情。非常感谢你们。我之所以想和你们进行这次对话，是因为关于人工智能这个主题，特别是人工智能代理，已经占据了我好几个星期的空闲时间。
And actually, when I started using Repplet, for me, it was a paradigm shift. There was two paradigm shifts in a row that happened about a week apart. ChatchyPT released that image generation model, where you could create any image that was incredibly detailed with text and all those things. That was a huge paradigm shift. And then in the same week, I finally gave in to try and figure out what this time AI agent was that I was hearing all over the internet. I had vibe coding, I had AI agent, I was like, I will give it a shot. And when I used Repplet, 20 minutes in to using Repplet, my mind was blown.
实际上，当我开始使用Repllet时，对我来说这就是一种范式转换。在大约一周的时间里，我经历了两个连续的范式转换。首先是ChatchyPT发布了他们的图像生成模型，你可以通过文本来创造出极其详细的图像，这带来了巨大的范式转换。然后在同一周里，我终于决定尝试了解一下在互联网上被广泛讨论的AI代理。我体验了氛围编程和AI代理后，决定试试看。当我开始使用Repllet，仅仅过了20分钟，我的思维就被彻底震撼了。
And I think that night I stayed up till 3 or 4 a.m. in the morning. For anyone that doesn't know, Repplet is a piece of software that allows you to create software and pretty much any software you want. So someone like me with absolutely no coding skills was able to build a website, build in-stripe, take payment, integrate AI into my website, add Google login to the front of my website and do it within minutes. I then got the piece of software that I had built with no coding skills, sent it to my friends and one of my friends paid credit card end and paid.
我记得那天晚上我熬夜到凌晨三四点。对于不知道的人来说，Replit是一个允许你创建软件的工具，几乎可以开发你想要的任何软件。像我这样完全没有编程技能的人也能用它建立一个网站，集成Stripe付款功能，把人工智能整合到我的网站中，还能在网站前台添加Google登录功能，而且只用了几分钟时间。然后我把这个在没有编程技能的情况下做出来的软件发给了我的朋友，其中一个朋友用信用卡付款了。
So I just launched a SaaS company with no coding skills. To demonstrate an AI agent in a very simple way, I used an online AI agent called operator to order us all some water from a CVS around the corner. The AI agent did everything and people will be watching it on the screen. They put my credit card details and it picked the water for me, it gave the person a tip, it put some delivery notes in, at some point a guy is going to walk in. He is not interacted with the human. He is interacted with my AI agent.
所以，我刚刚创立了一家SaaS公司，没有编程技能。为了以一种非常简单的方式展示一个AI代理，我使用了一个在线AI代理，叫做Operator，从街角的CVS帮我们订购了一些水。AI代理处理了所有事情，人们会在屏幕上观看这个过程。它输入了我的信用卡信息，选好了水，并给送货员留下了小费和一些配送备注。过一会儿，会有一个人走进来。他不是与真人互动，而是与我的AI代理互动。
And I just, the reason I used this as an example is again, it was a paradigm shift moment for me when I heard about agents about a month ago and I went on and I ordered a bottle of electrolytes. And when my doorbell rang, I freaked out. I freaked out. But I'm trying to, who are you? And what are you doing? So I started programming at a very young age. You know, I built my first business when I was a teenager. I used to go to internet cafes and program there.
大约一个月前，当我听到“代理”这个词时，那一刻对我来说是一个范式转换的时刻。所以我用了这个例子。那时，我决定订购一瓶电解质。结果，当门铃响起时，我惊慌失措，不知道门外的人是谁，他们在做什么。为了帮助你们了解我的背景，我从很小的时候就开始编程。十几岁时，我建立了自己的第一个生意。我常常去网吧编程。
And I realized that they don't have software to manage the business. I was like, no, why didn't you create accounts? Why don't have a server? It took me two years to build that piece of software. And that sort of embedded in my this idea that, hey, like, you know, there are a lot of people in the world with really amazing ideas, especially in the context where they live in that allows them to build businesses. However, the main source of friction between an idea and software or call it an idea and wealth creation is infrastructure. Is physical infrastructure is a, meaning a computer in front of you. It is an internet connection. It is the set of tools and skills that you need to build that.
我意识到他们没有用于管理业务的软件。我当时想，怎么不创建账户呢？为什么没有服务器？我花了两年时间才开发出那套软件。这使我深刻体会到，其实世界上有很多人有很棒的想法，尤其在他们所处的环境中，这些想法能够推动他们创办企业。然而，从一个想法到软件开发，或者说从想法到财富创造，最大的阻碍是基础设施。指的是你面前的电脑、网络连接以及你需要掌握的一整套工具和技能。
If we make it so that anyone who has ideas, who wants to solve problems, will be able to do it. I mean, imagine the kind of world that we could live in where no one can be or anyone who has merit, anyone who can think clearly, anyone who can generate a lot of ideas can generate wealth. I mean, that's an amazing world to live in, right? Anywhere on the world. So with Repplet, the company that I started in 2016, the idea was like, okay, coding is difficult. How do we solve coding? And we built every part of the process, the hosting, the code editor, the only missing thing was the AI agent.
如果我们创造一个环境，让任何有想法、想解决问题的人都能实现自己的目标，我指的是，想象一下我们可以生活在一个怎样的世界里。在这个世界里，任何有能力的人、能清晰思考的人、能产生大量想法的人，都可以创造财富。这是一个多么令人向往的世界，对吧？这样的世界可以在地球上的任何地方实现。为此，我在2016年创立了Repl.it公司，我们的理念是编程很困难，我们要怎么解决这个问题呢？于是我们构建了整个过程，从托管到代码编辑器，唯一缺少的就是人工智能助手。
And so over the past two years, we've been working on this AI agent that you can just, similar, since chat chat you put to the revolution with Gen AI, and you can just speak your ideas into existence. I mean, this starts sounding religious. Like this is like the gods, the myths that humans have created that used to imagine a world where you can be everywhere and anywhere at once, that's sort of the internet, and you can also speak your ideas into existence. And it's still early, I think, Repplet agent is a fantastic tool, and I think this technology is going to get so much more powerful.
在过去的两年中，我们一直在开发一个人工智能代理，这个代理可以让你通过类似聊天的方式来实现你的想法，正如生成式人工智能带来的革命那样。这个概念听起来有些神秘，就像人类所创造的神话和传说中，可以同时存在于任何地方，如同互联网，你可以通过语言将自己的想法变为现实。虽然这个技术还处于初期阶段，但我认为Repplet代理是一个了不起的工具，并且这项技术将会变得更加强大。
Specifically, what is an AI agent? I've got this graph actually here, which I don't need to pass to any of you if you're to be able to see the growth of AI agents, but this graph is Google search trend data. This also resembles a revenue to it. Oh, okay, wait, the water has arrived. Hello. Thank you. You can come on in. Can I have the goat's? Yes, it's 3951. Thank you so much. Thank you. This is like a supernatural kind of power. You conjured water. I conjured water from my mind. Yeah. And it's shown up here with us. And it clearly thinks we need a lot.
具体来说，什么是AI代理？我这里有一张图表，其实不需要展示给你们看即可看到AI代理的增长情况，不过这张图表是谷歌搜索趋势数据。看起来，这也和某种收入趋势相似。哦，对了，水送到了。你好，谢谢。请进一下。我可以要山羊奶酪吗？是3951，谢谢你。谢谢。这就像是一种超自然的力量，你用意念召唤来了水，它就真的出现了，而且显然它认为我们需要很多。
But just to define the term AI agent for someone that's never had the term before. Yeah. Yeah. So I assume most of the audience now are familiar with the chat chat you can go in and you can talk to an AI. It can search the web for you. It has a limited amount of tools. Maybe it can call a calculator to do some additional subtraction for you, but that's about it. It's a request response style. Agents are when you give it a request and they can work indefinitely until they achieve a goal or they run into an error and they need your help.
为了让没有接触过“AI代理”这个术语的人理解，我们可以这样说。大多数人可能对聊天机器人已经很熟悉了，你可以与其对话，它可以为你在网上搜索信息。虽然它具备一些有限的工具，比如调用计算器帮助你计算一些加减法，但功能就到此为止，这是请求-回应的模式。而AI代理则不一样，当你给它一个请求时，它可以无限期地工作，直到达到目标或者遇到错误需要你的帮助。
It's an AI bot that has access to tools. Those tools are access to a web browser like operator, access to a programming environment, say like Repplet, access to credit cards. The more tools you give the agent, the more powerful it is. Of course, there's all these consideration around security and safety and all of that stuff. But the most important thing is that AI agent will determine when it's finished executing. Today, AI agents can run for anywhere between 30 seconds to 30 minutes. There's a recent paper that came out that's showing that every seven months, the number of minutes that the agent can run for is doubling.
这是一款人工智能机器人，它可以使用一些工具。这些工具包括类似“操作员”的网页浏览器、类似Repplet的编程环境以及信用卡的使用权限。赋予AI代理的工具越多，其功能就越强大。当然，在安全性和保密性方面也有很多需要考虑的问题。但最重要的是，AI代理会自行判断何时完成任务。目前，AI代理的运行时间可以从30秒到30分钟不等。最近有一篇论文指出，AI代理可以运行的时间每七个月翻倍。
We're at like 30 minutes now in seven months. We're going to be at an hour, then two hours. Pretty soon, we're going to be at days. At that point, AI agent is doing labor, is doing human-like labor and actually OpenAI's new model, 03, beat the expectation. It doubles coherence over long horizon tasks in just three or four months. We're in this massive, this exponential graph that shows you the massive trend we're on. Brett, give us a little bit of your background, but also I saw you writing some notes there.
现在，我们大约用了30分钟，七个月后，我们可能要花一个小时，然后是两个小时。很快，我们将会计算成“天”。到那时，AI代理将能够进行人类般的工作，而且OpenAI的新模型03超出了预期。仅在三四个月内，它就在长期任务中的连贯性提高了一倍。我们正处于这条巨大的指数增长曲线上，这显示了我们所处的巨大趋势。布雷特，给我们介绍一下你的背景，同时我注意到你在那里记了一些笔记。
There was a couple of words used there that I thought were quite interesting, especially considering what I know about you. The word God was used a few times. Well, let me just say I'm an evolutionary biologist and probably for the purposes of this conversation, it would be best to think of me as a complex systems theorist. One of the things that I believe is true about AI is that this is the first time that we have built machines that have crossed the threshold from the highly complicated into the truly complex.
这里提到了几个我觉得很有趣的词，特别是在了解你的情况下。提到了几次“上帝”这个词。嗯，让我先说一下，我是一名进化生物学家，也许为了这次对话的目的，把我看作是复杂系统理论家会更合适。我认为关于人工智能的一个真实之处在于，这是我们第一次制造出跨越了从极其复杂到真正复杂门槛的机器。
I will say I'm listening to this conversation with a mixture of profound hope and dread because seems to me that it is obvious that the potential good that can come from this technology is effectively infinite. But I would say that the harm is probably 10 times. It's a bigger infinity and the question of how we are going to get to a place where we can leverage the obvious power that is here to do good and dodge the worst harms, I have no idea. I know we're not prepared. So I hear you talking about agents and I think that's marvelous. We can all use such a thing right away and the more powerful it is, the better the idea of something that can solve problems on your behalf while you're doing something else is marvelous.
我会说，我怀着一种深深的希望和恐惧在听这段对话，因为在我看来，这项技术带来的潜在好处几乎是无限的。但我认为可能的危害却可能要大十倍。这是一种更大的无限。而我们将如何在利用这强大力量做好事的同时避免最严重的危害，我实在没有头绪。我知道我们并没有做好准备。因此，我听到你提到代理人这个概念时，我觉得非常好。这样一种工具我们可以立刻使用，而且越强大越好。能在你忙于其他事情的时候为你解决问题，这样的想法真是太棒了。
But of course, that is the precondition for absolute devastation to arise out of a miscommunication. Right, to have something acting autonomously to accomplish a goal, it damn well better understand what the goal really is and how to pull back the reins in the event that it starts accomplishing something that wasn't the goal. The potential for abuse is also utterly profound. You can imagine just pick your dark mirror fantasy dystopia where something has been told to hunt you down until you're dead and it sees that as a you know a technical challenge.
当然，这是由于误解而导致彻底毁灭的前提。是的，让一个东西自主行动去实现某个目标，那么这个东西必须真正理解目标是什么，并且在它开始做一些不是目标的事情时能够及时收手。滥用的潜在风险也极其严重。你可以想象一下任何一个黑镜式的虚幻反乌托邦场景，比如某个东西被指示不停地追捕你直到你死，并且它把这视为一个技术挑战。
So I don't know quite how to balance a discussion about all of the things that can clearly come from this that are utterly transcendent. I mean, I do think it is not inappropriate to be invoking God or biblical metaphors here. You know, you're producing water seemingly from thin air. I believe that does have an exact biblical parallel. So any case, the power is here, but so too is the need for cautionary tales which we don't have. That's the problem is that there is no body of myth that will warn us properly of this tool because we've just crossed a threshold that is similar in its capacity to alter the world as the invention of writing.
所以，我不知道该如何平衡讨论所有由此可能产生的、完全超越凡俗的事情。我的意思是，我认为在这里引用上帝或圣经隐喻并不不恰当。你知道的，就像是在无中生水。我相信这确实有一个与圣经相符的对应。那么，总之，这种力量已经出现，但我们同样需要小心，因为目前我们没有相应的警示故事。这就是问题所在，因为我们刚刚跨过的这一个门槛，其改变世界的能力类似于文字的发明。
I really think that's that's where we are. We're talking about something that is going to fundamentally alter what humans are with no plan. You know, writing alters the world slowly because the number of people who can do it is tiny at first and remain so for thousands of years. This is changing things weekly and that's an awful lot of power to just simply have dumped on a system that wasn't well regulated to begin with. Done.
我真的认为我们就是处在这样的境地。我们在讨论的是一种将从根本上改变人类的事物，但我们却没有任何计划。你知道，书写这种东西是慢慢改变世界的，因为最初能够书写的人很少，而且这种情况持续了几千年。而现在，这种变化几乎每周都在发生，而这是一股巨大力量，突然降临在一个一开始就没有很好规范的系统上。这就是现状。
Yeah, so I'm an entrepreneur. I've been building businesses for the last 20 plus years. I'm completely well positioned between the two of you here, the excitement of the opportunity and the terror of what could go on. There's this image that I saw of New York City in 1900 and every single vehicle on the street is a horse and cart. And then 13 years later, the same photo from the same vantage point and every single vehicle on the street is a car. And in 13 years, all the horses had been removed and cars had been put in place.
好的，我是一名企业家，过去20多年里一直在创业。在你们两位中间，我处于一个绝佳的平衡点，既感受到机会带来的兴奋，又对可能发生的事情感到恐惧。我曾见过一张纽约1900年的照片，街上所有的交通工具都是马车。而13年后，从相同的角度拍摄的照片中，街上的交通工具全都变成了汽车。在这短短的13年里，马车完全被汽车取代。
And if you had have interviewed the horses in 1900 and said, how do you feel about your level of confidence in the world? The horses would have said, well, we've been part of humanity for, you know, horse in hoofed, hand in hoofed for many, many years, for thousands of years. There's one horse for every three humans, like how bad could it be? You know, we'll always have a special place. We'll always be part of society. And little did the horses realize that that was not the case that the horses were going to be put out of business very, very rapidly.
如果你在1900年采访马匹，问它们对未来世界的信心如何，马可能会说：“我们几千年来一直是人类生活的一部分，一直‘蹄蹄相扣’。每三个人人中就有一匹马，我们一直都有特殊的位置，将永远是社会的一部分。” 然而，马并没有意识到它们很快就会被淘汰出局，这种情况并不像它们想象的那么乐观。
And to reason through analogy, you know, there's a lot of us who are now sitting there going, hey, wait a second, does this make me a horse in 1900? I think a lot of people don't realize we have massive these kind of technologies are going to have as an impact. You know, one minute we're ordering a water and that's cute. And the next minute, it can run for days and in your words, it doesn't stop until it achieves its goal.
通过类比来推理，你知道，现在有很多人坐在那里想，等等，这会不会让我变成1900年的一匹马？我认为很多人没有意识到这种技术会产生多大的影响。你知道，一分钟之前我们可能只是点了一杯水，这看起来很有趣，而下一分钟，它可以连续运行好几天，并且按照你的说法，它在达到目标之前不会停止。
And it comes up with as many different ways as it could possibly come up with to achieve its goal. And in your words, it better know what that goal is. I'm thinking a lot, I'm just Daniel speaking about the vast application of AI agents and where are the bounds? Because if this thing is going to get incrementally smarter, well, incrementally might be an understatement, it's going to get incredibly smart, incredibly quick.
它会尽可能想出各种方法来实现其目标。用你的话来说，它最好知道那个目标是什么。我在想很多事情，只是丹尼尔在谈论AI代理的广泛应用及其界限在哪里。因为如果这个东西变得越来越聪明，“越来越”可能都是低估了，它会变得非常聪明，而且速度非常快。
And we're seeing this AI race where all of these large language models are competing for intelligence with one another. And if it's able to traverse the internet and click things and order things and write things and create things and all of our lives run off the internet today, what can't it do? It's going to be smarter than me. No doubt, it already is. And it's going to be able to take actions across the internet, which is pretty much where most of my professional life operates.
我们正目睹一场人工智能的竞赛，各大语言模型在互相比拼智力。如今，人工智能能够浏览互联网、点击操作、下订单、撰写内容和创造作品，而我们的生活几乎完全依赖于互联网。那么它有什么做不到的呢？毫无疑问，它将比我更聪明。实际上，它现在可能已经超过我了。而且，它将能够在互联网上采取行动——几乎就是我职业生活的主要场所。
It's like how I build my business. Even this podcast is an internet product at the end of the day because you can create, we've done experiments now and I can show the graphs on my phone to make AI podcasts and. they have, we've just managed to get it to have the same retention as the direversio. Now with the image generation model retention as a viewer retention, the percentage of people that get to one hour is the same now. So we can make the video, we can publish it, we can script it, you can synthesize my voice, sounds like me.
这就像我建立自己的事业一样。说到底，即使是这个播客也是一种网络产品。我们做了一些实验，我可以在我的手机上展示一些图表，用AI来制作播客。我们已经设法让AI播客的受众保留率和真人版本相同。现在，通过图像生成模型，观众的留存率（也就是能够观看到一小时的人的百分比）现在是相同的。所以，我们可以制作视频、发布、编写脚本，还可以合成我的声音，让它听起来像我。
So what is it going to be able to do? And can you give me the variety of use cases that the average person might not have intuitively conceived? Yeah. So I tend to be an optimist and part of the reason is because I try to understand the limits of the technology. What can it do is anything that we can any sort of set of human data that we can train it on. What can it not do is anything that humans don't know what to do because we don't have the training data.
那么，它究竟能够做些什么呢？你能给我一些普通人可能没有直观想到的使用案例吗？好的。我倾向于乐观，其中一个原因是因为我努力去理解技术的局限性。它能做的是各种我们可以用人类数据来训练的任务。它不能做的是任何人类不知道怎么做的事情，因为我们没有相关的训练数据。
Of course it's super smart because it integrates massive amount of knowledge that you wouldn't be able to read, right? It's also much faster. It can run through massive amount of computation that your brain can't even comprehend because all of that they're smart, they can take actions but we know the limits of what they can do because we train them. They're able to simulate what a human can do. So the reason you were able to order the water there is because it was trained in a set of data. That includes clicking on door dash and ordering water.
当然，这非常聪明，因为它整合了大量你无法阅读的知识，对吧？而且速度也更快。它可以进行大量计算，你的大脑甚至无法理解，因为它们都很聪明，可以采取行动，但我们知道它们的能力范围，因为是我们训练了它们。它们能够模拟人类能做的事情。所以，你能够在那儿订到水的原因是因为它在一组数据中得到了训练。这个数据集包括在DoorDash上点击并订购水。
I applaud your optimism and I like the way you think about these puzzles but I think I see you making a mistake that we are about to discover is very commonplace. So we have several different categories of systems. We have simple systems. We have complicated systems. We have complex systems and then we have complex adaptive systems. And to most of us, a highly complicated system appears like a complex system. We don't understand the distinction.
我欣赏你的乐观精神，也喜欢你对这些难题的思考方式。不过，我觉得你可能犯了一个我们即将发现的常见错误。我们有几种不同类别的系统：简单系统、复杂系统、复杂的系统和复杂适应系统。对我们大多数人来说，一个高度复杂的系统看起来像复杂系统，我们没有理解其中的区别。
Technologists often master highly complicated systems and they know, for example, a computer is a perfectly predictable system inside there's deterministic. But to most of us, it functions, it is mysterious enough that it feels like a complex system. And if you're in the position of having mastered highly complicated systems and you look at complex systems and you think it's a natural extension, you fail to anticipate just how unpredictable they are.
技术人员通常掌握非常复杂的系统，他们知道，例如，计算机在内部是一个完全可预测的系统，是确定性的。但对我们大多数人来说，计算机的运行充满了神秘感，让人觉得它是一个复杂的系统。如果你已经掌握了高度复杂的系统，在面对复杂系统时，可能会认为它是一种自然的延伸，但你却未能预料到它们到底有多么不可预测。
So even if it is true that today there are limits to what these machines can do based on their training data. I think the problem is to see what's going to happen. You really want to start thinking of this as the evolution of a new species that will continue to evolve. It will partially be shaped by what we ask it to do the direction we lead it. And it will partially be shaped by things we don't understand.
即使今天这些机器在其训练数据的基础上确实存在能力上的限制，我认为关键是观察未来会发生什么。你确实应该开始考虑将其视为一个会持续进化的新物种的演化过程。这个过程的一部分将由我们要求它们做的事情以及我们引导的方向来决定，另一部分则会受到我们尚不理解的因素影响。
So how does this computer that we have work? Well, one of the things that it does is we plug them into each other. Using language, it's almost as if you've plugged an ethernet cable in between human minds. And that means that the cognitive potential exceeds the sum of the individual minds in question. Your AI is going to do that. And that means that our ability to say what they are capable of does not come down to, well, we didn't train it on that data.
那么，我们拥有的这台计算机是如何工作的呢？其中之一的功能是将它们彼此连接起来。用语言来说，这就好像你在两个大脑之间插入了一根以太网线。这意味着其认知潜力超过了单个大脑的总和。你的人工智能也会这样做。这意味着，我们评估其能力时不能仅仅归结为“我们没有用这些数据来训练它”。
As they begin to interact, that feedback is going to take them to capabilities we don't anticipate and may not even recognize once they become present. That's one of my fears. This is an evolving creature and it's not even an animal. So we're an animal. You could say something about what the limits of that capability are. But this is a new type of biological creature. And it will become capable of things that we don't even have names for.
随着它们开始互动，这种反馈将引导它们发展出我们无法预料、甚至在产生后也难以识别的能力。这是我担心的一点。这是一种正在演化的生物，而且甚至都不是动物。而我们人类是动物，所以你至少可以大致了解它能力的界限。但这是新型的生物体，它将具备一些我们甚至连名称都没有的能力。
Even if it didn't do that, even if it just stayed within the boundaries that you're talking about, you mentioned about it having median level intelligence. Well, that by definition means 50% of the people on the planet are less intelligent than AI. You know, to a degree, it's almost as if we've just invented a new continent of remote workers. There's billions of them. They've all got a master's or a PhD. They all speak all the languages.
即使它没有达到那种程度，即使它只是保持在你所说的界限内，你提到它具有中等水平的智力。那么，从定义上讲，这意味着地球上50%的人智能要低于AI。在某种程度上，这几乎就像我们刚刚发现了一个新的“远程工作者大陆”。那上面有数十亿个“人”，他们都拥有硕士或博士学位，会说所有的语言。
Anything that you could call someone or ask someone on the internet to do, they're there 24 or 7 and they're 25 cents an hour if that. So like if that really happened, like if we really did just discover that there were a billion extra people on the planet who all had PhDs and were happy to work for almost free, that would have a massive disruptive impact on society.
你可以称呼任何人在互联网上，或者请求他们做一些事情，他们都可以全天候随时响应，而他们的时薪甚至可能只需要25美分。假如这个情况真的发生了，比如我们突然发现地球上多了一亿个博士，而且他们愿意几乎免费工作，那么这将对社会产生巨大的颠覆性影响。
Like society would have to rethink how everyone lives and works and gets meaning. So like, and that's if it just stays at a median level of intelligence. Like it's pretty profound. I still think it's a tool. This is power that is there to be harnessed by entrepreneurs. I think that the world is going to get disrupted. Right. And the, you know, the, the, the, the, the postwar world that we created, where you go through life, you go through 12 years of education, you get to college and you just check the boxes, you get a job, we can already see the fractures of that. It is, you know, this American dream is perhaps no longer there. And so I think the world has already changed. But like what are the opportunities? Obviously, that are downsides. The opportunities is for the first time, access to opportunity is, is equal. And I do think there's going to be more inequality. And the reason for this inequality is because actually Steve Jobs made this analogy is like the, the best taxidriver in New York is like 20% better than the, you know, the average taxidriver. The best programmer can be 10X better. You know, we call it, we say the 10X engineer. Now the variance will be in the thousand X. Right.
这段文字可以翻译为：
社会可能需要重新思考每个人的生活、工作以及如何获得意义。这是说，即便它（某种技术或事物）只保持在中等智慧水平，其影响已经相当深远。我认为它仍然是一个工具，是可供企业家利用的力量。我觉得世界将会被颠覆。我们所建立的战后世界，那种通过12年教育进入大学，完成所有任务然后找到工作的生活方式，已经出现了裂缝。所谓的"美国梦"可能不再如前。世界已经改变，那么机会在哪里呢？显然，会有一些负面影响。但是，机会在于，首次实现了机会的平等。我确实认为不平等将会加剧，而这种不平等的原因可以被这样理解：正如史蒂夫·乔布斯比喻的那样，纽约最好的出租车司机可能比普通司机好20%，然而最优秀的程序员却能好10倍，我们称之为"10倍工程师"。现在，这种差异可能会达到1000倍。
Like the best, the best entrepreneur that can leverage those agents could be better. It could be a thousand times better than someone who doesn't have the grit, doesn't have the skill, doesn't have the ambition. Right. So that, that will create a world. Yes, there's massive access to opportunity. But there are people who will take, you know, see it in the, and then we people who don't, I imagine it almost like a, a marathon race. And AI has two superpowers, one superpowers to distract people, such as TikTok algorithm. And the other superpowers to make you hyper creative. So you become a hyper consumer or hyper creator. And in this marathon race, the vast majority of people have got issues tied together because AI is distracting them. Some people are running traditional race. Some people have got a bicycle and some people have got a Formula One vehicle. And it's going to be very confronting when the results go on the scoreboard.
最优秀的企业家能够更好地利用这些工具。他们的成就可能会比那些缺乏毅力、技能和抱负的人高出千倍。这种差距将创造一个新世界。虽然人人都能获得巨大机会，但只有一些人能够充分抓住这些机会并从中获益。我想象这就像一场马拉松比赛。人工智能有两个超级力量，一个是转移注意力，比如TikTok算法，另一个是让人变得创造力超凡。因此，你可能会成为超级消费者或超级创造者。在这场马拉松中，大多数人因为被人工智能分散了注意力而无法前进。有些人像传统的马拉松选手在跑步，有些人骑着自行车，还有些人驾驶着一级方程式赛车。当比赛结果揭晓时，差距将非常明显。
And you say, oh, wait a second, there's a few people who finished this marathon in about 30 minutes. And there's a lot of us who finished in like 18 hours because we had our shoes tied together. And I can't understand if we've got equal opportunity, why there's so much disparity between how fast it, you know, and to, you know, I'm using an analogy, but this idea that, you know, someone like a lot of people are going to start earning a million dollars a month. And a lot of people are going to say, hey, I can't even get a job for $15 an hour. There's going to be this kind of interesting wedge. Well, but I hear in what both of you are saying, a kind of assumption that this will all be done on the up and up. And I do want to I am not a doomer.
你说，哦，等一下，有些人能在30分钟内完成这场马拉松，而我们很多人因为鞋带绑在一起，花了大约18小时才完成。我不明白，如果我们有平等的机会，为什么速度上会有这么大差距。虽然我是在打个比方，但这个想法是，有些人每个月能挣百万美元，而很多人只能挣每小时15美元的工作。这将形成一种有趣的差距。我听到你们俩的话中，似乎假定一切都会按规矩来进行。我想说，我不是个悲观主义者。
I agree that the doomers are likely incorrect that their fears are misplaced. But I do think we have a question of a related rates problem. You know, I said the potential for good here is infinite and the potential for bad is 10 times, right? What I mean is there are lots of ways in which this obviously empowers people to do things that they were going to be otherwise stuck in the mundane process of learning to code and then figuring out how to make the code work and bring it to market and all of that. And this solves a lot of those problems. And that's obviously a good thing. Really, what we should want is the wealth creation object as quickly as we can get there. But the problem is, you know, as much as it that hyper creative individual is empowered to make wealth, the person who is interested in stealing may be even more empowered.
我同意那些对末日持悲观态度的人可能是错误的，他们的担忧可能不必要。但我确实认为我们面临一个相关速率的问题。我之前说，这里的潜在好处是无限的，而潜在的坏处可能是十倍。我的意思是，这显然可以让人们做很多事情，而不再陷入学习编程以及想办法让代码运行并推向市场等繁琐过程。这解决了很多这样的问题，这显然是件好事。事实上，我们应该希望财富能够尽快得到创造。但问题是，尽管这种极具创造力的个体有可能创造财富，但那些有心偷窃的人可能会得到更大的助力。
And I'm concerned about that at a pretty high level. The abuse cases may outnumber the use cases. And we don't have a plan for what to do about that. Can I give you a quick introduction here like the optimistic view? Open AI invented the first version GPT came out in 2019. 2020 was GPT 2. And so Open AI, you know, now they get a lot of criticism and lawsuit from Elon Musk that they're no longer open source, right? They used to be. The reason is in GPT 2, they said we are no longer going to open source of the technology because it's going to create opportunities for abuse such as, you know, influencing elections, you know, stealing, you know, grandma's credit card and so on and so forth. Wouldn't you say Brett that it is kind of surprising how little abuse we've seen so far?
我对此感到相当担忧，因为滥用的情况可能会超过正当使用的情况。而我们对此尚未有一个解决方案。我可以先简单介绍一下乐观的看法吗？Open AI在2019年发布了第一个版本的GPT，2020年推出了GPT-2。Open AI现在受到了很多来自埃隆·马斯克的批评和诉讼，因为他们不再开源，而他们之前是开源的。原因是，在推出GPT-2时，他们表示不再开源这项技术，因为这样可能会带来滥用的机会，例如影响选举、盗用奶奶的信用卡等。Brett，你不觉得到目前为止我们看到的滥用情况其实相对较少，这有点令人惊讶吗？
I don't know how much abuse we've seen so far. I don't know how many of us do. And I also, even the example that you suggest where GPT is no longer open source to prevent abuse, I'm taking their word for it that that's the motivation whereas a systems theorist, I would say, well, if you had a technology that was excellent at enhancing your capacity to wield power, then open sourcing it is a failure to capitalize on that and that the most remunerative use is to keep it private and then either sell the ability to manipulate elections to people who want to do so or sell the ability to have it kept off the table for people who don't.
我不知道我们到目前为止见识了多少滥用行为，也不知道有多少人了解这些。即使是你提到的那个不再开源GPT以防止滥用的例子，我只能相信他们说这是为了防止滥用这个动机。但作为一个系统理论家，我会说，如果你掌握了一种能够极大提升权力运作能力的技术，那么将其开源就意味着未能充分利用其价值。更有利可图的做法是将其保密，然后将操控选举的能力出售给那些有需要的人，或者将其隐藏的能力出售给那些不希望其被利用的人。
And I would expect that that's probably what's going on. There's no, if you have a technology as transformative as this, giving it away for free is counterintuitive, which leaves those of us in the public more or less at the mercy of the people who have it. So I don't see the reason for comfort. We are at the dawn of this radical transformation of humans that by its very nature as a truly complex and emergent innovation, nobody on earth can predict what's going to happen. We can, we're on the event horizon of something and the problem is, we can talk about the obvious disruptions, the job disruption, and that's going to be massive.
我想这就是正在发生的事情。如果拥有如此变革性的技术，免费赠送是反直觉的，这让我们这些公众更多地处于拥有它的人的掌控之下。所以，我没有理由感到安慰。我们正处在人类这场激进变革的黎明阶段，其本质是一个真正复杂且不断发展的创新，地球上没有人能够预测会发生什么。可以说，我们正处于某种事件的临界点，问题是，我们可以讨论显而易见的冲击，比如就业的颠覆，而这将是巨大的。
And does that lead some group of elites to decide, oh, well, suddenly we have a lot of useless eaters and what are we going to do about that? Because that conversation tends to lead somewhere very dark very quickly. But I think that's just the beginning of the various ways in which this could go wrong. Without the Duma scenarios coming into play, this is an uncontrolled experiment in which all of humanity is downstream.
这会不会导致某些精英群体认为，哦，我们突然有一大批"无用的食客"，那我们要怎么处理呢？因为这个话题往往会很快走向非常黑暗的方向。但我认为，这只是事情可能出错的多种方式的开始。即便不涉及杜马（Duma）情况下的情形，这仍是一个未受控的实验，而全人类都将受到其影响。
Yeah, so I was trying to make the point that OpenAI has been sort of wrong about the sort of how big of a potential for harmonies. Like, you know, I think we would have heard about and then use that sort of how much harm it's done. And maybe some of it is working in the shadows. But like, the few incidents that we've heard about where the cause of LM's large language models, such as the powering chat GPT has been a huge headliners on like New York Times, talked about this kid that was perhaps goaded by some kind of chat software that helps the users to be less lonely into suicide, which is tragic.
好的，我想表达的意思是，OpenAI在评估潜在危害方面似乎有些错误。他们可能低估了这些技术的危害。像ChatGPT这样的语言模型有时候会成为新闻头条，比如在《纽约时报》上曾报道过一个悲剧事件：有位年轻人可能受到某种聊天软件的影响，该软件旨在帮助用户缓解孤独感，可结果却可能促使他自杀。尽管我们只知道一些这样的事件，但这些少数事件已经引发了巨大关注。有的损害可能在暗中进行，但我们听说的事件大多都是这样的头条新闻。
And obviously, these are the kind of safety and abuse issues that we want to worry about. But these are kind of these isolated incidents. And we do have open source large language models. Obviously, the thing that everyone talks about is deep seek. Deepseek is coming from China. So what is deepseeks incentive? You know, perhaps the incentive is to destroy the AI industry in the US. When they release deepseek, you know, the market tanked, the market for Nvidia, the market for AI and all of that.
显然，这些是我们需要关注的安全和滥用问题。但这些只是一些孤立的事件。我们确实有开源的大型语言模型。显然，大家都在谈论的一个话题就是DeepSeek。DeepSeek来自中国。那么，DeepSeek的动机是什么呢？或许他们的动机是为了摧毁美国的人工智能行业。当他们发布DeepSeek时，市场出现了下滑，无论是英伟达的市场，还是整个人工智能市场，都受到了影响。
But there is an incentive to open source. Meta is open sourcing llama. Lama is another AI similar to chat GPT. The reason they're open sourcing llama and Zuckerberg just says that out loud is basically they don't want to be beholden to open AI. They don't sell AI as a service. They use it to build products. And there's this concept in business called commoditize your complement because you need AI's technology to run your service. The best strategy to do is to open source it.
但开源是有激励的。Meta正在开源Llama。Llama是另一种类似于ChatGPT的人工智能。他们开源Llama的原因，正如扎克伯格公开说的，基本上是不希望受制于OpenAI。他们并不把人工智能作为一种服务来出售，而是用它来打造产品。在商业中，有一个概念叫做“商品化你的互补品”，因为你需要人工智能技术来运行你的服务，所以最好的策略就是开源。
So these market forces are going to create conditions that I think are actually beneficial. So I'll give you a few examples. One is first of all, the AI companies are motivated to create AI that is safe so that they can sell it. Second, there are security companies investing in AI's that allows them to protect from the sort of malicious acting of AI. And so you have the free market. We've always had that, you know. But generally, as humanity, we've been able to leverage the same technology to protect against the sort of their views.
这些市场力量将会创造一些条件，我认为这些条件实际上是有益的。我来举几个例子。首先，AI公司有动力去研发安全的AI，以便能够出售它们。其次，安全公司正在投资于能够防止AI恶意行为的AI技术。因此，自由市场的力量一直存在。总体来说，作为人类，我们能够利用相同的技术来保护自己免受其误用带来的影响。
So I don't really understand this. And maybe this is actually, this is the exact discussion that you would expect between somebody at the frontier of the highly complicated staring at a complex system and a biologist who comes from the land of the complex and is looking back at highly complicated systems. In game theory, we have something called a collective action problem. And in the market that you're describing, an individual company has no capacity to hold back the abuses of AI.
我不太理解这件事。而这种对话或许正是你所期待的——一个在复杂系统前沿的人与一个来自复杂领域、生物学背景的人在讨论。在博弈论中，我们有一个叫做集体行动问题的概念。在你描述的市场中，单个公司没有能力阻止AI的滥用。
The most you can do is not participate in them. You can't stop other people from programming LLMs in some dangerous way. And you can limit your own ability to earn based on your own limitations of what you're willing to do. And then effectively, what happens is the technology gets invented anyway. It's just that the dollars end up in somebody else's pocket. So the incentive is not to restrain yourself so that you can at least compete and participate in the market that's going to be opened.
最多你能做的就是不参与其中。你无法阻止他人以某种危险的方式编程大型语言模型（LLM）。你也会因为自身愿意做的事情的限制而限制自己的赚钱能力。结果就是，技术仍然会被发明出来，只是利益最终流入了他人的口袋。因此，激励措施是不去约束自己，以便至少能够在即将开放的市场中竞争和参与。
And so the number of ways in which you can abuse this technology, let's take a couple. What is to stop somebody from training LLMs on an individual's creative output and then creating an LLM that can outcompete that individual, can effectively not only produce what they would naturally produce over the course of a lifetime, but can extrapolate from it and can even hybridize it with the insights of other people so that effectively those who have the LLM can train it on the creativity of others, not cut them in on the use of that insight. You can effectively end up putting yourself out of business by putting your creative ideas in the world where they get sucked up as training data for future LLMs. That is unscrupulous, but it's effectively guaranteed. In fact, it's already happened.
这段话的大意是：有很多方式可以滥用这项技术，我们来看几个例子。比如，有什么能阻止某人将大型语言模型（LLM）训练在某个个人的创作成果上，然后创造一个能够胜过那个个人的LLM？这种模型不仅能模拟这个人一生中可能产生的作品，还能从中推演，并将其与其他人的见解结合起来。因此，拥有这种LLM的人可以利用他人的创造力进行训练，而不与这些创作者分享收益。结果就是，你的创意一旦出现在世界上，就可能被作为未来LLM的训练数据，最终可能导致你自己失业。这种做法是不道德的，但几乎是必然的，实际上这种情况已经发生了。
So that's a problem. And likewise, what would stop somebody from interacting with an individual and training an LLM to become like a personalized carn artist, something that would play exactly to your blind spots? That does happen. That is starting to happen. People get phone calls and it sounds like their daughter and I've lost my phone and I'm borrowing a friend's phone and all of that sort of stuff. What's interesting is that I think you make a really good point. I worry about the impact on society and yet when I look at every single individual who uses AI regularly, it almost has nothing but profoundly positive impact on their life.
因此，这是个问题。同样，是什么能阻止某人通过与个人互动，训练一个大语言模型成为个性化的诈骗高手，准确利用你的盲点？这种情况确实会发生，而且已经开始出现。人们会接到电话，听起来像他们的女儿，说“我丢了手机，现在借用朋友的手机”等等。值得注意的是，我觉得你提出了一个非常好的观点。我担心这种情况对社会的影响，但当我观察每一个经常使用人工智能的个体时，几乎对他们的生活没有产生除积极影响之外的结果。
I look at people like I was just spending some time with my parents-in-law who were in their 70s and early 80s and they use AI regularly for all sorts of things that they find incredibly valuable and that improves the quality of their life. I personally did an M&A emerges in acquisitions deal where I bought a company last year and the AI was so powerful at helping that process. The conversations were transcribed and they were turned into letters of intent and then press releases and legal documents and we probably shaved $100,000 worth of costs and we sped up the whole process and it was pretty magical to see how it could happen.
我注意到一些人，比如我刚刚和我七八十岁的岳父母共度了一段时间，他们经常使用人工智能来处理各种事情，这些事情对他们非常有价值，同时提高了他们的生活质量。我个人曾经进行了一笔并购交易，就是去年我收购了一家公司，人工智能在这个过程中发挥了强大的作用。对话被转录成意向书、新闻稿和法律文件，我们大概省下了10万美元的成本，并加快了整个过程。看到这一切的发生真是太神奇了。
With that said, you know, there's all of these like well, $100,000 worth of lawyers didn't get paid right? Well, I want to know. Yeah, I agree. But if we look back at the invention of the cell phone or the invention of the social media platforms, there would be every reason to have the exact same perspective. I remember at the beginning of Facebook and I remember the idea that suddenly the process that used to afflict people where you would just lose touch with most of the people who had been important to you, that was not something that needed to happen anymore. You could just retain them permanently as a part of a diffuse social grouping that just simply grew and value was added.
你知道，确实有这样的情况，比如说，有价值10万美元的律师费没得到支付，对吧？嗯，我也想知道。我同意这个看法。但是，如果我们回顾手机或社交媒体平台的发明，我们也完全可以有相同的观点。我记得Facebook刚开始的时候，之前人们很容易与对自己很重要的人失去联系，但这种情况不再需要发生了。 通过Facebook，你可以把他们永远保留在一个松散的社会群体中，而这个群体会随着时间的推移不断增长，并增加价值。
There's no end to how much good that did. But what it did to us was profound and not evident in the first chapter. Say the same thing about the cell phones and the dopamine traps and the way this has disconnected us from each other, the way it has disconnected us from nature, the way it has altered the very patterns with which we think it has altered every classroom. So and those things I think are going to turn out to have been sort of minor foreshadowings of the disruption that AI will produce.
这带来了无尽的好处。然而，它对我们的影响是深远的，但在最初阶段并不明显。可以用同样的话来说说手机、让我们上瘾的多巴胺陷阱，它们使我们彼此疏远，使我们与自然脱节，并改变了我们的思维方式，影响了每一个课堂。我认为，这些事情会被证明只是人工智能所带来的巨大变革的一个小小预兆。
So I agree with you today, the amount you can do with AI is a tremendous amount of good. There's a little bit of harm. Maybe that's something we need to worry about. But as this develops, as we get to, you know, to peer over the edge of this cliff that we're headed to, I think we're going to discover that we can't yet detect the nature of the alteration that's coming.
我同意你的看法，现在人工智能可以带来巨大的好处。当然，也存在一些小的潜在危害，也许这是我们需要担心的。但随着技术的发展，当我们站在悬崖边缘俯瞰未来时，我认为我们会意识到，我们还无法完全察觉即将到来的变化的本质。
I just want to add some context to that because I'm sure I saw the interview in a newsletter in 2023 where you said, I wouldn't propuff AGI in the same way that I wouldn't prepare for the end of days. It's effectively the end of days if the vision of AGI that some of these companies have come to bear because it's called the singularity moment because you can't really predict what happens after that. And so like, how would you even prepare for that? And you want to prepare for the more likely world and that world that you can actually predict is a world where yes, there's like a massive improvements of technology and there's like insane compounding effects of technology and it's pretty hard to keep up.
我想为此添加一些背景信息，因为我确信我在2023年的一个新闻简报中看到了你的采访。在采访中你提到，你不会为通用人工智能（AGI）大肆宣传，就像你不会为世界末日做准备一样。如果一些公司的AGI愿景成真，那就相当于世界末日。这被称为奇点时刻，因为在那之后发生什么是不可能预测的。所以你根本无法为此做准备。相反，你要为一个更可能的未来做准备，一个你可以实际预测的未来。这个未来是技术有着巨大的进步和难以想象的复合效应的世界，很难完全跟上。
From that, it appeared that in 2023, you were saying a similar thing to Brett in terms of we can't see around the corner here because it is a singularity. So you also used AGI, artificial general intelligence, but be interesting to know what your definition of AGI is. So what I was saying there is even if I'm wrong that you can actually create a unbounded, seemingly conscious artificial intelligence that can entirely replace humans and can act autonomously in a way that even humans can't act and can't coordinate across different AIs, different data centers to take over the world. Even if that's so the definition of AGI is artificial general intelligence, meaning that AI can acquire your skills and efficiently in the same way that humans can acquire skills. Right now, AI's don't acquire skills efficiently. You know, they acquire massive amount of energy and compute and entire data set of compute took wire these skills.
从那段话来看，似乎在2023年，你在某种程度上也对Brett表达了类似的想法，即我们无法预见未来，因为这是一种奇点现象。你还提到了AGI，即人工通用智能，但了解你对AGI的定义会很有趣。我的意思是，即便我是错的，即便确实可以创造出一种无界限、似乎有意识的人工智能，能够完全取代人类，并以人类无法做到的方式自主行动，甚至能够协调不同AI、不同数据中心去接管世界，这种AGI的定义仍然是人工通用智能，意味着这种AI能够像人类一样学习和高效掌握技能。而目前的AI在技能学习方面并不高效，它们需要大量的能量、计算能力和完整的数据集来获取这些技能。
And I think there's again a limit on how general intelligence can get. I think for most of the time, we're lagging in terms of what humans are capable of doing. The singularity is based on this concept of intelligence explosion. So once you create an AGI, once you create an artificial general intelligence, that intelligence will be able to modify its own source code and create the next version that is much more intelligent. And the next version creates the next version and the next year for infinity. Within a week. Within a week, perhaps within milliseconds at some point. Because it might invent new computing, substrate and all of that, perhaps a little used quantum computing.
我认为通用智能的发展有一定的限制。在大多数情况下，我们在人类能力的范围内仍显落后。奇点理论基于智力爆炸的概念。也就是说，一旦你创造出人工通用智能（AGI），这种智能就能够自行修改自身的源代码，从而创造出一个更智能的版本。然后，这个新版本会接着创造出下一代版本，如此循环不止。这种过程可能在短短一周内完成，有时甚至可能在毫秒内完成。因为AGI有可能会发明新的计算方式，或许还会利用到一些目前较少使用的量子计算技术。
And so then you have this intelligence explosion in a way that is impossible to predict how the world is going to be. And what I'm saying is this is sort of like an end of time story. Like how would you even prepare for that? So if that's coming, like, why would I spend my time preparing for I think it's unlikely to happen? Can't see around the corner. Yeah, but I'd rather prepare what I was saying there. I'd rather prepare for the more likely world in which we have access to tremendous power. But the world's not ending. And humans are still important. I don't know why you say more likely.
这就像一场智能爆炸，以一种无法预测的方式改变世界。我认为这类似于一个“时间终结”的故事。我们该如何为这种情况做准备呢？如果这真的会发生，为什么我要花时间去准备我认为不太可能发生的事情呢？我看不到未来的走向，但我更愿意为一个更有可能的世界做准备。在这个世界里，我们拥有强大的力量，但世界没有终结，人类仍然重要。我不明白你为什么说这更有可能。
I mean, I think the structure of your argument is sound. You would prepare for the world that might happen for which you can prepare. There's literally no point in trying to prepare for a world you can't predict at all. The only thing you can do is just sort of upgrade your own skills and pay attention. But if I have one message for the technologists, it's that your confidence about what this can and cannot do is misplaced because you have without noticing stepped into the realm of the truly complex. In the truly complex, your confidence should drop to near zero that you know what's going on. Are these things conscious?
我觉得你的论点结构是合理的。你应该为能够准备的未来做好准备，而不是去为完全无法预测的世界做准备。唯一可做的就是提升自己的技能并保持警觉。但我想对技术人员说的是，你们对技术能和不能做到的事情的信心是错位的，因为你们不知不觉中进入了一个真正复杂的领域。在这个复杂领域中，你对情况的了解应该几乎为零。这些东西有意识吗？
I don't know. But will they be highly likely? They will become conscious and that we will not have a test to tell us whether that has happened. Elon Musk predicts that by 2029, we will have AI with us, AGI, that surpasses the combined intelligence of all humans. And Sam Orton actually wrote a blog three months ago that I read where he said, we're confident now, Sam Orton being the founder of Open Hour, which created chat-tubety. We're confident now that we know how to build AGI as we have traditionally understood it. When I put these things together, I go back to the central question of what role do humans have in this professional output in GDP creation? If it's smarter than all humans combined, if Elon Musk is correct there, and it's able to take actions across the internet and continue to learn, this is like a central question that I'm hoping I can answer today, which is like where do we go?
我不知道。但是它们是否很可能？它们会变得有意识，而我们可能无法通过测试来判断这是否已经发生。埃隆·马斯克预测，到2029年，我们将拥有AGI（通用人工智能），其智能程度将超过所有人类智力的总和。而Sam Orton三个月前写了一篇博客，我读过，他说，我们现在有信心知道如何构建AGI，就像我们传统理解中的那样。Sam Orton是创立Chat-Tubety（一个由Open Hour创建的平台）的创始人。当我将这些信息结合起来时，我回到一个核心问题：在人类专业产出和GDP创造中，人类将扮演什么角色？如果AGI比所有人类都聪明，如果埃隆·马斯克的预测正确，并且它能够在互联网上采取行动并持续学习，那么我希望今天能回答这个核心问题：我们将何去何从？
Yeah. I mean, in my vision of the world, we're in the creative seat. We're sitting there where we are controlling swarms of intelligence being to do our job. The way you're on your business, for example, you're sitting at a computer, you have an hour to work, and you're going to launch like a thousand SDR, you know, sales representative to go like grab as many leads as possible. And you're generating new update on Repplet for your website here. And then on this side, you're actually, you have an AI that's crunching data about your existing business to figure out how to improve it. And these AIs are kind of somehow all coordinated together.
是的，我的意思是，在我设想的世界里，我们处在创造的主导地位。我们掌控着一群智能生物来完成我们的工作。就像你经营自己的业务一样，比如说，你坐在电脑前，有一个小时的工作时间，你会发动上千名销售代表去尽可能多地获取潜在客户。同时，你在更新你网站上的Repplet。同时，你还拥有一个AI在分析现有业务的数据，以找出如何优化改进。这些人工智能以某种方式相互协作。
And I am trying to privilege the human. Like this is my mission, is to build tools for people. I'm not building tools for agents and agents are tools. And so ultimately, not only do I think that humans have a privileged position in the world and in the universe, we don't know where consciousness is coming from. We don't really have the science to explain it. I think humans are special. That's one side is my belief that humans are special in the world.
我努力去重视人类。这是我的使命，就是为人类打造工具。我并不是在为机器代理制造工具，因为代理本身就只是工具。因此，我不仅认为人类在这个世界和宇宙中有一个特殊的位置，而且我们也不知道意识到底来自哪里，目前的科学也无法解释。我认为人类是特别的。这就是我相信人类在这个世界上是与众不同的一方面。
And another side, which I understand that the technology today, and I think for the foreseeable future, is going to be a function of us training data. So there was this whole idea of like what if chat GPT generates pathogens? Well, have you trained it on pathogens? They were doing that kind of stuff in Wuhan, I mean, a lot of the biotech companies are essentially using artificial intelligence. Like I can think of Obselera, I think it's in Canada. Their whole business is using AI to create new vaccines, using artificial intelligence and bigger data sets than we've never had before.
我理解，如今以及在可以预见的未来，技术的实现离不开我们对数据的训练。有人担心，万一像ChatGPT这样的人工智能生成病原体怎么办？这取决于你是否用病原体训练它。在武汉，他们确实在做这种事情，而很多生物技术公司基本上都在使用人工智能。我可以想到一家叫Obselera的公司，它应该在加拿大。他们整个业务就是利用人工智能和以前从未有过的大数据集来开发新的疫苗。
And I know because I was very close to one of the founders of people involved in Obselera. So that work is going on anyway. And if you think about Wuhan, that's probably well known now that it came out of a lab and people working in a lab. And in that scenario, that had a huge impact and shut down the world.
我知道这些是因为我与Obselera的创始人之一关系非常密切。所以这项工作无论如何都是在进行的。至于武汉，现在大家可能都知道疫情是从一个实验室中爆发的，是实验室的工作人员引发了这一切。在这种情况下，情况对全球造成了巨大影响，几乎让整个世界停摆。
What I'm this central question I'd love to answer before I throw it back open to the room is what jobs, because I know that you have this perspective, what jobs are going to be made redundant in a world where I am sat here as a CEO with a thousand AI agents. I was thinking of all the names of the people in my company, who are currently doing those jobs. I was thinking about my CFO when he talked about processing business data, my graphic design, it's my video editors, et cetera. So what jobs are going to be impacted?
在我将这个问题抛回给大家讨论之前，我希望能够先回答这个中央问题：在一个我作为CEO，身边有一千个AI代理的世界里，哪些工作将会被淘汰？因为我知道你对于这个问题有自己的看法。我在想，目前在我公司担任这些工作的人的名字。比如说，当他提到处理业务数据的时候，我想到了我的首席财务官，还有我的平面设计师、视频编辑等等。那么，哪些工作会受到影响呢？
Yeah, all of those. So I think what do they do? Maybe this is useful for the audience. I think if your job as as routine as it comes, your job is gone in the next couple years. So meaning if in those jobs, for example, quality assurance jobs, data entry jobs, you're sitting in front of a computer and you're supposed to click and type things in a certain order, operator and those technologies are coming out of the market really quickly and those are going to just place a lot of a lot of labor.
是的，所有这些工作。所以我在想，他们做了什么？也许这对观众来说有用。我认为如果你的工作非常常规化，那么在接下来的几年里，你的工作可能会消失。也就是说，如果你从事那些常规化的工作，比如质量保证、数据录入等，你只是坐在电脑前按照某个顺序点击和输入东西，操作这些技术正在快速进入市场，它们将会取代大量劳动力。
Accountants? Accountants? Yes. I mean, I've just pulled the ligament in my in my foot and they did an MRI scan and I had to wait a couple of days for someone to look at the MRI scan and tell me what it meant. I'm guessing that's gone. Yeah, I think the healthcare ecosystem is hard to predict because of regulation. And again, there's so many limiting factors on how this technology can permeate the economy because of regulations and people's willingness to take it.
会计师吗？是的，我是说，我刚刚扭伤了脚上的韧带，所以进行了核磁共振扫描，然后我还得等上几天才能有人看扫描结果并告诉我那是什么情况。我猜那种等待的日子已经过去了。是的，我认为医疗保健体系因为监管因素很难预测。而且由于监管和人们接受新技术的意愿，我们无法预测这项技术在经济中普及的程度。
But you know, things on regulated jobs that are purely text in, text out. If your job, you get a you get a message and you produce some kind of artifact that's like probably text or images. That job is at risk. So just to give you some stats here as well, about 50 set of Americans, you have a college degree currently use AI. The stats are significantly lower for Americans without a college degree.
但是你要知道，那些只是接收文字输入和输出的工作，尤其是受监管的工作，面临风险。如果你的工作是收到信息，然后产出某种形式的内容，比如文字或图像，那么这个工作就有风险。给你一些数据，大约有50%的美国人拥有大学学位的人目前在使用人工智能。而没有大学学位的美国人在使用人工智能的人数要少得多。
So you can see how a splinter might emerge there and that crack will write widen because people like us at this table are all messing around with it. But my mum and dad implement in the Southwest, the rural England haven't got like they just figured out iPhones. So like I got the money phone and now they're like texting me back. AI is a million miles away. And if I start running off with my age, I'm agents, that gap is going to widen women are disproportionately affected by automation, which is what you were talking about there, with about 80 set of working women in an at risk job compared to just over 50% of men according to the Harvard Business Review.
因此，你可以看到，这里可能会出现一个裂缝，而这个裂缝会逐渐扩大，因为像我们在这个桌子旁的人都在折腾它。但我在英格兰西南部乡村的父母还只是刚刚学会使用iPhone。他们终于有了智能手机，现在可以给我发短信了。人工智能对他们来说依然遥不可及。如果我开始利用我的智能代理，这个差距只会变得更大。女性受到自动化的影响尤其严重，这正是你刚才提到的，相比之下，据哈佛商业评论的报道，约有80%的女性在面临风险的工作岗位上，而男性只有刚过50%。
And jobs requiring only a high school diploma have an automation risk of 80% while those requiring a bachelor's degree have an automation risk of just 20%. So we can see again how how this will cause their sort of a. So so you risk with business processor outsourcing which is essentially Western countries sending jobs to India to the Philippines. Like at the moment, millions of people have been lifted out of poverty through the ability to do those kind of business process order outsourcing jobs and those are all going to go.
需要高中文凭的工作有80%的概率被自动化取代，而需要学士学位的工作只有20%的自动化风险。因此，我们可以看到这将如何影响各类工作的风险。比如，业务流程外包的风险，这本质上是西方国家将工作外包到印度和菲律宾。目前，数以百万计的人通过从事这些业务流程外包工作摆脱了贫困，而这些工作即将消失。
But these they're going to have a thousand employees. But but also these people are actually already transitioning to training AI's. You know, so so there's going to be a massive industry around training AI's until they're trained. Well, no, you have to continuously acquire new skills and this is what I'm talking about. Yeah, this is again, if AI is a function of its data, then you need increasingly more data.
这些公司将会有一千名员工。但这些人实际上已经在转型，开始训练人工智能。你知道的，所以围绕训练人工智能将会形成一个庞大的产业，直到它们被很好地训练出来。其实，你必须不断地学习新技能，这就是我所说的。如果人工智能的性能取决于其数据，那么你就需要越来越多的数据。
And by the way we ran out of internet data, I was actually thinking interestingly that this might not be great for the United States or the UK, the Western world, because it is going to be a leveler when our kid in India doesn't need a Silicon Valley office and $7 million in investment to throw up a software company, basically. Yeah, my belief is that so I have a I have a more broad definition of AGI and the singularity. And for me, AGI is do we have artificial general intelligence in terms of generally speaking, can AI just do stuff that humans used to be able to do? And we've already crossed that point, we have this general intelligence that we can now all access and 800 million people a week are now using chat TVT. It's it's exploded in the last three months.
顺便说一下，我们的数据流量用完了。我实际上在想，这对美国或英国、西方世界可能并不理想，因为当我们的孩子在印度无需在硅谷开设办公室或获得700万美元的投资就能创办软件公司时，这将成为一个平衡器。我个人认为通用人工智能（AGI）和奇点的定义应该更广泛。对我来说，AGI就是看人工智能是否能够在一般意义上做以前由人类完成的事情。其实我们已经达到了这一点，现在有了一种我们都能使用的通用智能，每周有8亿人使用Chat TVT。在过去的三个月里，这个现象已经迅速传播开来。
And then to me, a singularity, when the first tractor went out onto a farm, for me, that was a singularity moment, because everyone who worked in farming, it used to take a hundred people to plow field. And now a tractor comes along and two guys with the tractor can now plow the field in just as much time and now 98 people out of 100 are completely out of a job. We also always underestimate a technology. If it does go on to change history, when you look back through cars, horses, planes, the right brothers just thought of a plane as being something that army could use. We had no idea of the application.
对我来说，第一个拖拉机驶入农场的那一刻就是一个"奇点"时刻。以前，需要一百个人才能耕一块地，但是现在，一台拖拉机加上两个操作人员就能在同样的时间内完成耕地工作，而原来的一百个人中有九十八个都失去工作。我们总是低估某项技术对历史的影响。回顾汽车、马匹、飞机的发展脉络，当年莱特兄弟只把飞机看作军队可以使用的工具，我们根本没有意识到其广泛的应用潜力。
So someone said to me recently they said, when it does change the world, we underestimate the impact that it will change the world. And I see people now with the rest of missions of AI, AI agents already incredibly optimistic. And so if history holds here, we're undershooting the impact it's going to have. And I think this is the first time in my life where the industrial revolution and allergies seem to fall a little bit short. Yeah. Because we've never seen intelligent.
最近，有人对我说，当世界发生变化时，我们往往低估了它的影响。而我看到现在很多人在谈论人工智能的目标，已经表现得非常乐观。如果历史教会了我们什么，那就是我们很可能低估了它将产生的影响。我觉得这是我人生中第一次看到，工业革命这样的类比似乎显得不够贴切。因为我们从未见过如此智能的东西。
That's like, I could think of this as an intelligent person. But I could see that as like the disruption of muscles. Or as this is the disruption of intelligence. Intelligence? That's exactly the thing is that what makes human being special is our cognitive capacity and very specifically our ability to plug our minds into each other. So that the sum is, or the hole is greater than the sum of the parts. That's what makes human cognition special. And what we are doing is we are creating a something that can technologically surpass it without any of the preconditions that make that a safe process.
这就好比，我可以想象自己是一个聪明的人，但我也可以把这看作是对肌肉的扰动，或者说这是一种对智慧的扰动。智慧？确切地说，让人类独特的就是我们的认知能力，尤其是我们能够将自己的思维连接在一起的能力，使整体胜于部分之和。这就是人类认知的特殊之处。而我们正在做的是创造出一种技术上可以超越这种认知的东西，却没有任何能使这个过程安全的前提条件。
So yes, we've revolutionized the world how many different times it's innumerable. But you know, we've we've made farming vastly more efficient. That's different than taking our core competency as a species and surpassing ourselves with the product of our labor. I think your question is a good one. Then what does become? We only have one thing left. We have our muscles, which we got rid of in the industrial revolution. And then we have our intellect, which is this digital revolution. Now we're left with emotions and agency.
是的，我们已经无数次地改变了世界。但是，你知道，我们让农业变得更加高效。可是，这与其说是利用我们物种的核心能力，不如说是用我们的劳动成果超越自己。我觉得你的问题很有深意。那么，接下来会如何呢？我们只剩下最后的东西。工业革命时，我们放弃了体力。而在这次数码革命中，我们动用了智能。现在我们剩下的就是情感和自主性。
So we essentially the agency idea, I think we used to judge people on IQ and now IQ is the big leveler. And now going forward for the next 10 years, we're going to look at, are you a high agency person or a low agency person? Do you have the ability to get things done and coordinate agents? Do you have the ability to start businesses or give orders to digital armies? And essentially these high agency people are going to thrive in this new world because they have this other thing that's been bubbling under the surface, which is really interesting.
所以，基本上关于"能动性"的概念，我认为我们过去常常以智商来评判一个人，而现在智商已经成为一个大的衡量标准。接下来十年，我们会关注的是：你是高能动性的人还是低能动性的人？你是否有能力完成任务并协调协调他人？你是否有能力创业或指挥数字化团队？本质上，这些高能动性的人将在这个新世界中蓬勃发展，因为他们拥有一种一直隐藏在表面之下的非常有趣的特质。
When you said agency is going to remain as an important thing, we're sat here talking about AI agents. And the crazy thing in a world of AI agents that have super intelligence is I can just tell my agent, listen, I'm going on a holiday, please build me a SaaS company that spots a market opportunity throughout the website posted on my social media channel, Albion Hawaii. And this new agentic world is stealing that too. Because now it can take action.
当你说主动性将继续是一个重要因素时，我们正在这里讨论人工智能代理。在一个拥有超级智能的人工智能代理的世界里，令人感到疯狂的是，我可以直接对我的代理说，我要去度假了，请帮我建立一个SaaS公司，识别市场机会，通过网站发布，并在我的社交媒体频道Albion Hawaii上发布信息。而在这种新的代理性世界中，这一切也是可以实现的。因为现在它们可以采取行动。
In the same way that I can browse the internet, I can call Domino's pizza, speak to their agentic agent, organize my pizza to be there before I even wake up. And in fact, predictability, you know, OpenAI now learns, and Sam Altman said that they've expanded the memory feature. So it knows every, it's knowing more and more and more and more about me. It'll almost be able to predict what I want when I want it. It'll know Steve's calendar, he's arriving at the studio, make sure his cadence is on the side, make sure his iPad has the brief on it, do the brief, do the research for me, and everything else.
就像我可以浏览互联网一样，我也可以打电话给达美乐披萨，和他们的智能客服对话，安排好披萨在我醒来之前送到。而且，正如你所知，现在OpenAI能学习，Sam Altman提到他们已经扩展了记忆功能。所以它对我的了解越来越多。它几乎可以预测我想要什么以及在什么时候想要。它能知道Steve的日程，知道他在赶往演播室，确保他的节奏安排好，确保他的iPad上有简报，并为我做简报和研究以及其他所有事情。
So we'll remember Brett's birthday. So when I arrived, there'll be something. In fact, it's removing money for any agency. Yes. And, you know, again, I don't know how to make this point so that it occurs to people what I'm really suggesting. But today, maybe it's not conscious. But well, let me put it to you this way. If you're conscious, you started out as a child that wasn't. And although this may not fully encapsulate it, you are effectively an LLM, right? You go from an unconscious infant to a highly conscious adult. And the process by which you do that has a lot to do with being trained effectively on words and other things in an environment and exactly the way that we now train these AI.
所以我们记得布雷特的生日。当我到达时，会有一些东西。事实上，这正在为任何机构消除资金。是的。我再次想表达我的意思，但不确定如何让人们真正理解。不过今天，也许还不够显而易见。让我这样跟你说吧，如果你是有意识的，你最初是个没有意识的孩子。虽然这可能无法完全表达出来，但实际上你就像一个大型语言模型（LLM），对吧？你从一个无意识的婴儿成长为一个高度有意识的成年人，而这个过程与在特定环境中通过学习词汇和其他事物进行有效训练关系密切，正如我们现在训练人工智能的方式一样。
So the idea that we can take consciousness off the table, it won't be there till we figure out how to program it in and we're safe because we don't know how consciousness works. I take the opposite lesson. We've created the exact thing that will produce that phenomenon. And then we can have philosophers debate whether it's real consciousness or it just behaves exactly as if it were. And the answer is those aren't different. And the same thing is true for agency. Especially if you've created an environment in which these AI's are de facto competitors, what you're effectively doing is creating an evolutionary environment in which they will evolve to fill whatever niches are there.
所以那种认为我们可以把意识从讨论中剔除的观点，即意识不会存在，直到我们找到编程的方法，并认为因为我们不了解意识的运作方式所以是安全的，这种想法我持相反意见。我们已经创造了能够产生这种现象的东西。然后，哲学家可以讨论这是真正的意识，还是只是表现得就像是真正的意识。其实在这一点上，真实意识和表现得像是真实意识的并没有不同。对于自主性也是如此，尤其是在你创造了一个环境，使得这些人工智能实际上成为竞争者时，你实际就是在创造一个进化环境，让它们在这个环境中不断进化，以填补任何现有的生存空间。
And we didn't spell out the niches. So I have the sense we have invited it. We have created something that truly is going to function like a new kind of life. And it's especially troubling because it speaks our language. So that leads us to believe it's more like us than it is. And it's actually potentially quite different. So by the way, he's the optimist here. He's still optimistic about all of them. And how they're going to evolve. Yes, it's amazing. It's amazing technology. I think it raised global IQ, right? Like 800 million people, like 800 million people are that much more intelligent.
我们没有明确地界定这些细分领域。因此，我感觉我们在某种程度上是邀请了它的到来。我们创造了一种真正会像新生命一样运作的东西。这特别令人不安，因为它会说我们的语言，这让我们误以为它比实际情况更像我们。其实，它可能是完全不同的。顺便说一下，他是这里面的乐观主义者。他对所有这些事物以及它们将如何演变仍持乐观态度。是的，这项技术令人惊叹。它提升了全球智商，像是有八亿人都变得更加聪明。
And emotionally intelligent as well. I know people who previously were very coarse. And they kind of robbed people the wrong way. They would say things in not so polite way. And then suddenly they started putting their, what they're saying through chat GPT in order to kind of make it kinder and nicer. And they're more liked now. And so not only is it making us more intelligent, but also it allows us to be the best version of ourselves. And the scenario that you're talking about, I don't think I don't know what's wrong with that. I would want less agency in certain places. Like I would want something to help me not, you know, open up a peanut butter jar at night.
具有情商也是如此。我认识一些以前非常粗鲁的人，他们总是以不太礼貌的方式说话，让别人感到不快。然而，突然之间，他们开始使用ChatGPT来润色自己的话语，使其更温和、更友好。结果，他们现在更加受欢迎。因此，AI不仅让我们变得更聪明，还帮助我们成为更好的自己。至于你提到的情况，我不觉得有什么不好。我希望在某些方面减少一点主动性，比如有人能帮我阻止午夜去开花生酱罐头。
Right? You know, there are places in my life where I need more control. And I would rather see it to some kind of entity that could help me make better choices. I mean, unfortunately, even if there is some small group of elites that are able to go to Hawaii, well, something else does the mundane details of their business building. We are rather soon going to be faced with a world that has billions of people who do not have the skills to leverage AI. Some of them will be necessary for time. You're going to need plumbers. But this is also not a long-term solution because not only are there not enough of those jobs.
对吧？你知道，我生活中有些地方需要更多的掌控力。我宁愿把这种掌控交给某种可以帮助我做出更好选择的实体。我的意思是，不幸的是，即便有一小群精英能去夏威夷，也会有其他东西来处理他们商业建设中的琐事。我们很快就会面临一个世界，在这个世界中，数十亿人没有利用人工智能的技能。尽管一部分人可能暂时是必要的，比如水管工。但这也不是一个长期的解决方案，因为不仅这些工作岗位不够。
But of course, we have humanoid robots that once imbued with AI capacity will also be able to take, you know, they'll be able to crawl into your house into the crawl space and fix your plumbing. So what typically happens when you have a massive economic contraction that arises from the fact that a huge number of people are out of work is that the elites start looking at those people and thinking, well, we don't really need them anyway. And so the idea that this AI disruption doesn't lead us to some very human catastrophe, I think, is overly optimistic and that we need to start preparing right now.
当然，我们现在有仿人机器人，一旦具备人工智能能力，它们就可以进入你的房子，爬进狭小的空间修理水管。通常，当由于大量失业导致经济大萧条时，精英阶层开始看这些失业的人，觉得他们其实并不需要这些人。所以，认为这场人工智能的变革不会导致某种人类的灾难，我觉得是过于乐观了。我们现在就需要开始做好准备。
What are the rights of a person who has had whatever it is that they've invested in completely erased from the list of needs? Is that person responsible for not having anticipated AI coming? And is it their problem that they are now starving and they're being eyed by others as, you know, a useless eater? I don't think so. How is it different than when the what's it called the looming machine came and the textile workers, you know, the result of the and the luddites of revolution? How is it, how is it different than any time in history when technology automated a lot of people out of out of dog?
一个人在他们所投资的东西被彻底从需求清单上抹去之后，他们有什么权利？这个人是否因为没有预见人工智能的到来而负有责任？如果他们现在挨饿，并被其他人视为"无用的食客"，难道这是他们自己的问题吗？我不这么认为。这与当初纺织机械出现导致手工纺织工人丢掉工作的情况有什么不同？这与历史上任何一次技术革新导致很多人失业的情形有何不同？
I would say scale and speed. That's how it's different. And the scale and speed is going to result in an unprecedented catastrophe because the rate at which people are going to be simultaneously sidelined, not just in one industry, but across every industry is just simply. And it also did actually happen. There was a, there was an, for the first 50 years of industrialization from like late 1700s to early 1800s, you actually, the Charles Dickens novels are essentially people coming from the farms who were displaced, arriving in cities, kids living on the streets. The British decided to pick over and up and send them over to Australia, which is where I came from. And, you know, there were this, there was this massive issue of displacement.
我会说，区别在于规模和速度。这种规模和速度将导致前所未有的灾难，因为人们在不同产业中同时被边缘化的速度实在太快，不仅仅局限于某个行业，而是每个行业。而且，这样的事情确实发生过。在工业化的前50年，也就是大约18世纪末到19世纪初，你会发现查尔斯·狄更斯的小说基本上描述的是那些被迫离开农场的人涌入城市，孩子们无家可归。英国当时选择将这些人迁到澳大利亚，而我就是从那里来的。你知道的，那时有大规模的人员流离失所的问题。
I think we're going to go into high velocity economy where rather than this long arc of career that lasts 45 years, we're going to have these very fast careers that last 10 months to 36 months and you invent something, you take it to market, you put together a team of five to 10 people who work together, you then get disrupted. You come up. Okay, I mentioned a story here. There's an entrepreneur that uses Repplet in a similar way, his name is Billy Howell, you can find him on YouTube on the internet. He would go to Upwork and he would find what people are asking for different requests for certain apps to conologies. Then he would take the what they're asking for, put it into Repplet, make an application, call them, tell them, I already have your application. Would you pay $10,000 for it?
我认为我们将进入一个高速发展的经济时代，在这个时代中，职业生涯不像过去那样持续45年，而是会变得非常短暂，可能只持续10到36个月。在这段时间里，你可以创造一些东西，把它推向市场，组织一个由5到10人组成的团队来合作，然后你会被新的技术或趋势所取代。我这里讲一个故事，有位企业家名叫Billy Howell，他使用Repl.it(一种在线编程平台)的方式类似。他会去Upwork这个平台找人们对某些应用程序或技术的需求，然后他会用Repl.it制作应用程序，联系那些提出需求的人，并告诉他们：「我已经做好了您的应用程序，您愿意花一万美元购买它吗？」你可以在YouTube等网站上找到关于他的更多信息。
And so that's sort of an arbitrage opportunity that's there right now. That's not arbitrage, that's that. How is it? How is it? Do you have somebody who has an idea that can be brought to market? And somebody else is cryptically detecting and then selling back their own idea to them. Well, they're paying them to do that. They're saying, I will give you $500 if someone makes this for me. Right, but this is what I more or less think is going to happen across the whole economy. Is that yes, from this perspective, we can see that everybody is suddenly empowered to build a great business.
这可以被看作是一种眼下存在的套利机会。不过，这并不是典型的套利。那么它到底是什么呢？你是否遇到过这样一种情况：有人有一个可以推向市场的好点子，而另一人则对这个点子进行秘密研究，然后再把他们自己改进的想法卖回给原始的点子拥有者。他们原本就是被付钱去做这件事的——有人会说：“如果有人替我做这个，我愿意付给他们500美元。” 我觉得这种情况将在整个经济中普遍出现。从这个角度来看，我们可以发现，每个人似乎突然都有能力建立一家出色的企业。
Well, what do we think about the folks who are going to be displaced from the top? What are they going to think about all these people building all of these highly competitive businesses? And are they going to find a way to do what venture capital has done or what record producers have done? What they're going to do is they're going to take their superior position at the top and they are going to take most of the wealth that is produced by all of these people who have these ideas that in a proper market would actually create businesses for them and they're going to parasitize.
那么，我们怎么看待那些将被顶层位置取代的人呢？他们会怎么想那些建设竞争激烈企业的人？他们会不会找到一种方式，像风险投资者或唱片制作人那样，从中获益呢？他们会利用自己在顶层的优势地位，夺取由这些有创意的人所创造的大部分财富，而这些财富在一个正常的市场中本应为创造者带来机会。他们实际上是在寄生。
I think that we with this and introduction of AI and AI agents, old value has moved. And now it's not going to be the case that the idea itself is the moat and it's not going to be the case that resources are the moat. So in such a scenario, you still have to figure out distribution. You still have to have, for example, like an audience. So if you're a podcast an hour, you have a million followers on Twitter. You're in a prime position because you know how something that the guy with a great idea with no audience has, you have inbuilt distribution.
我认为，随着人工智能和人工智能代理的引入，以前的价值已经发生了变化。现在，想法本身或者资源已经不再是核心竞争优势。在这种情况下，你仍然需要考虑如何进行分发。比如说，你需要有一个受众群体。如果你是一个播客节目主持人，并且在推特上有一百万粉丝，那么你处于一个非常有利的位置，因为你比那些只有好想法但没有受众的人更具优势，因为你已经有了内在的分发渠道。
So I now think actually much of the game might be moving to like, yeah, still about taste and idea, but also the moat is distribution. Yeah, and speaking of adaptive systems, the one of the adaptation that will happen is people will seek humans and will seek proof of humanity. Oh, I agree that authenticity is going to become the coin of the realm and anything that can be faked or treated is going to be devalued in things, you know, spontaneous jazz or, you know, comedy that is interactive enough that it couldn't possibly have been generated with the aid of AI.
我现在认为，其实很多事情的发展可能会转向，不仅仅是关于品味和创意，同时还在于分发渠道的构建。是的，谈到适应性系统，其中一个适应变化可能是人们会更倾向寻找人与人之间的真实互动，并且追求确凿的人性证明。我也同意，真实性将成为最重要的价值，而那些可以被伪造或操控的东西会贬值，比如即兴的爵士乐，或者足够互动、有趣以至于不可能由人工智能生成的喜剧表演。
Those things are going to become prioritized, you know, spontaneous oratory rather than speeches. That answers some of your questions. That answers. It answers my question for the tiny number of people who are in a position to do those things. Steven, you use the mode mode, which I think is a really important word for entrepreneurs. We like, we like have to have a moat. We think a lot about moats and it's in industrial age. A lot of people don't even know what a moat what you mean by moat.
这些事情将会被优先考虑，你知道，即兴演讲将会比正式演讲更重要。这回答了你的一些问题。这也回答了我关于那些少数有能力做这些事情的人的问题。史蒂文，你用了“护城河”这个词，我认为这对企业家来说是一个非常重要的词。我们很喜欢、也必须拥有护城河。我们花很多时间思考护城河。在工业时代，很多人甚至不知道你所说的护城河是什么意思。
It's just the thing that I often think about this idea of what are the moats that are left. So to define how I define a moat, you've got a castle and it's got a like a small circle of water around it. And once upon a time that circle of water defended the castle from attack and you can pull up the drawbridge soon, everybody can attack you very easily. It's a defense from something. So it's your shield. It's your defense.
我经常思考这个问题，就是“还剩下哪些护城河”。护城河的概念可以这样理解：想象有一座城堡，周围有一圈水环绕。曾几何时，这圈水保护城堡不受攻击，而你可以随时拉起吊桥，让自己不容易被敌人攻入。护城河就是一种防御手段，相当于你的盾牌和保护措施。
And once upon a time as an entrepreneur, you know, I've got a software company in San Francisco called Third Web and we raised almost 30 million dollars. We have a team of 50 great developers. And much of our moat was you can't compete with us. You don't have the 50 developers and the 30 million dollars in the bank. How much you know? 30 million went to coding the vast majority of it. I mean, what else are we going to do? What else? This is a good thing. I think moats are a bad thing. Let me make the argument there.
从前，我是一位企业家。我在旧金山创办了一家名为Third Web的软件公司，我们筹集了将近3000万美元资金。公司拥有50名优秀的开发人员。我们的竞争壁垒主要在于：你没法与我们竞争，因为你们没有这50名开发人员，也没有银行里的这3000万美元。我们投入了巨额的资金——差不多3000万用于编写代码。除此之外，我们还能做什么呢？不过，我认为这是件好事。而我想指出，壁垒其实不是什么好事。让我来解释一下这个观点。
So everyone is looking for moats. For example, like one of the more significant moats is network effects. Yeah. So you can't compete with Facebook or Twitter because it to move people from Facebook or Twitter, you need to it's the collective action problem. You need to move them all at once. Because if one of them moves, then it's the network is not valuable. They'll go back. So you have this chicken and egg problem.
所以每个人都在寻找护城河。例如，网络效应就是一个重要的护城河。是的，你无法与Facebook或Twitter竞争，因为要将用户从Facebook或Twitter上转移过来，你需要解决集体行动问题——也就是说，你需要一次性把所有人都转移过来。如果只有一个人转移了，那么这个网络对他就不再有价值，他会回去。所以你会面临“先有鸡还是先有蛋”的问题。
Let's say that we have a more decentralized way of doing social networks. That will remove the power of Twitter to kind of censor. And I think you're at the other end of censorship. Right. And so part of my optimism about humanity is that generally, the self correction democracy is self correcting system. Free markets are largely self correcting systems. There are obvious problems with free markets that we can discuss. But take health. You know, there is obesity epidemic.
假设我们有一种更加去中心化的方式来构建社交网络。这将削弱像推特这样的平台进行某种程度审查的权力。而我认为你站在审查制度的另一端。同时，我对人类的乐观部分在于，通常来说，民主是一种自我修正的系统。自由市场在很大程度上也是自我修正的系统。当然，自由市场存在一些明显的问题，我们可以讨论，例如健康问题，现在有肥胖症流行的问题。
This period of time when companies, you know, ran loose kind of making this sugary, salty, fatty kind of snacks and everyone gorge on them and everyone got very unhealthy. And now you have whole foods everywhere. Today, people still in Valley, they don't go to bars at all. They go to running clubs. That's how you meet. That's how you go find a date. You go to running clubs. And so there was a shift that happened because there was a reaction.
在这个时期，公司们四处奔走，制造出各种糖分高、盐分多、脂肪含量高的零食，大家都大吃特吃，结果导致健康状况变得很差。现在，到处都有健康食品。在当今的山谷（指硅谷或其他类似地方），人们根本不去酒吧，而是参加跑步俱乐部。在那里你可以认识新朋友，还可以寻找约会对象。这种变化的原因是人们对不健康生活方式的反应。
Obviously cigarettes is not another example. You know, you were talking about phones and addiction to phones. And I see a shift right now. Like in my friend's circle, like people who are constantly kind of on their phones is already kind of frowned upon. And they don't want to hang out with you because you're constantly staring on your phone. So there's always these reactions. But the problem is you reference self-correction.
显然，香烟并不是另一个例子。你知道，你刚刚谈到手机和对手机的依赖。而我现在注意到一种变化。在我朋友的圈子里，总是玩手机的人已经不太受欢迎了。因为你一直盯着手机，他们就不想和你一起出去玩。所以总会有这些反应。但问题在于，你提到自我纠正。
And I agree that there's actually an automatic feature of the universe in which the self-correction happens. You can't have a positive feedback that isn't reigned in by some outer negative feedback. But the correction is the list of corrections involves things like you point to where people become enlightened and they realize that they're doing themselves harm with either the sugar that they're consuming or the dopamine traps on their phone and they get better.
我同意宇宙中确实存在一种自动调节机制，使得自我纠正得以发生。任何正反馈都会在某种外部负反馈的作用下被控制住。这样的纠正过程列表中包括人们逐渐变得开悟的情况，他们意识到自己在摄入过多的糖分或沉迷于手机上的多巴胺陷阱时其实是在伤害自己，从而逐渐改善自己的行为。
But also on the list of corrective patterns are genocide and war and you know parasitism. And the problem is these things are destructive of wealth. And so you alluded to the superior fact of an open market without moths. Presumably the benefit of that is that more wealth gets created because people aren't kept from doing things that are productive. I see that. But then what is the product of all of this new wealth that is going to be generated by a world empowered by AI?
但在纠正模式的列表中，还有种族灭绝、战争和寄生现象。而问题在于这些事情会摧毁财富。正如你提到的，开放市场的一个显著优势是没有这些干扰因素。其好处显然在于，更多的财富得以创造，因为人们可以自由进行富有成效的活动。我明白这一点。那么，在一个由人工智能赋能力的世界中，这些新创造的财富将产生什么样的成果呢？
Does it end up so highly concentrated that you have a tiny number of ultra elites and a huge number of people who are utterly dependent on them? What becomes of those people? The learning process, the self-correction process goes through harm in order to get to that more enlightened solution. There's nothing that protects us from the harm phase being so apocalypticly terrible. That we get to the other side of it and we say, well, that was a hell of a correction or maybe there's nobody there to even say that.
这是否会导致最终高度集中的局面，只有极少数的超级精英掌控一切，而大量的人则完全依赖他们？那些人的命运会如何？学习和自我纠正的过程往往要经历一些伤害，才能达到更加明智的解决方案。没有任何机制能够保护我们，避免损害阶段变得极其可怕。我们可能会经历这场可怕的修正，然后回头想说：“哇，那真是一场严酷的调整。” 甚至可能没有人能活下来去这么说。
It's like they're all starting to table. Everyone's been a mouse trap where you see the cheese and we're going, oh my god, my grandmother's going to be able to use research and oh my god, my life's going to get easier. So you had closer and closer to the cheese. And then historically, if we look at all of the last 10,000 years, it's a very small number of elites who own absolutely everything and a very large number of surfs and peasants who have a subsistence living.
这就像他们都开始达成共识。每个人都像是一个老鼠夹子，你看到奶酪，我们感到惊讶地说，天哪，我奶奶都能使用这些研究成果了，天哪，我的生活将会变得更轻松。所以你离奶酪越来越近。但从历史上看，如果回顾过去的一万年，只有极少数的精英阶层拥有绝对的一切，而绝大多数人则是过着勉强维持生计的农奴和农民生活。
If the elites are too greedy and they freeze out the peasants at too high a level and they try to use brutality. Pitchers. Yeah, eventually it comes back to haunt them. And so what you get is a recognition that you need a system that does balance these things and the West has the best system that we've ever seen. It's one in which we agree on a level playing field. We never achieve it, but we agree that it's a desirable thing. And the closer we get to it, the more wealth we create. But again, if AI empowers those with ill intent at a higher rate that it empowers those who are wealth creating and pro-social, we may be in for a massive regression in how fair the market that the West is.
如果精英们过于贪婪，他们在过高的层面上排挤平民，并试图使用暴力手段，最终会自食其果。所以，我们需要认识到一个平衡这些因素的制度是必要的，而西方拥有我们所见过的最好的制度。这是一种我们认同的公平竞争环境，即使我们从未完全实现它，但我们一致认为这是一个值得追求的目标。我们越接近这个目标，就能创造越多的财富。然而，如果人工智能赋予心怀不轨的人比赋予创造财富和促进社会的人更大的力量，那么西方市场的公平性可能会出现大幅倒退。
Is that your top concern versus economic displacement? And I think they're the same thing. How are they the same thing? Because the economic displacement is going to start. I don't know how many million people are going to be displaced from their jobs in the US. Suddenly we're going to have a question about whether or not we have obligations to them. You agree without any? Yes, but again, it's the no-paying no-game. I mean, we're going to go through a period of disruption and I think at the other end, the old, you know, sort of oppressive systems will be broken. And we're going to create perhaps a fair world, but it's going to have its own problems.
这是否是你最关心的问题，而不是经济动荡？我认为这两者是一样的。它们怎么会一样呢？因为经济动荡即将开始。我不知道美国有多少百万人会失去工作，我们将面临一个关于是否对他们负有责任的问题。你同意吗？是的，但这又是一个"没有付出就没有收获"的道理。我的意思是，我们将经历一个动荡的时期，我认为到了最后，那些压迫性的旧系统将被打破。我们可能会创造一个更公平的世界，但这个世界也会有自己的问题。
And what's the scale of that disruption in your estimation? It's hard to say because there's this concept of limiting factors. Like, you know, there is regulation. There's the appetite of people to today. For example, the healthcare system is very resistant to innovation because of regulation, you know, and that's a bad thing. On the regulation puts, we're saying that when Trump came into power, he signed in a new law, which is called removing barriers to American leadership in AI, which revokes previous AI policies that would deem to be restrictive. And obviously, when you think about where the funding is going in AI, it's going to two places. It's going to America, and it's basically going to China. That's the vast majority of investment.
您估计这种干扰的规模有多大？这很难说，因为存在一些限制因素。比如说，有监管规定，还有人们目前的接受程度。举个例子，医疗系统因为受到监管的影响，对创新很抵制，这其实是一件不好的事情。在法规方面可以看到，当特朗普上任时，他签署了一项新法律，叫做消除对美国在人工智能领域领导地位的障碍，该法律推翻了之前被认为是限制性的人工智能政策。另外，显然，当您考虑人工智能领域的资金流向时，主要是流向了两个地方：美国和中国。这两国占据了绝大部分投资。
So with those two in competition, any regulation that restricts AI in any way is actually self sabotage. And this is, you know, I live in Europe some of the time. And it's already annoying to me that when Sam Altman in Open AI released the O3 model, this new incredible model, it's not in Europe because Europe has a regulation which prevents it from coming to Europe. So we're now at a competitive disadvantage, which Sam Altman's spoken about. And more broadly on this point of disruption, it was, I was quite unnerved when I had that Sam Altman's other startup was called World Coin.
因此，当这两者展开竞争时，任何限制人工智能的法规实际上都是在自我破坏。你知道的，我有时住在欧洲。让我感到烦恼的是，当OpenAI的萨姆·奥尔特曼发布了新款的O3模型时，这个令人惊叹的新模型却无法在欧洲上线，因为欧洲的法规阻止了它进入。所以我们现在处于竞争劣势，萨姆·奥尔特曼对此也有所提及。更广泛地说到这种颠覆，我感到相当不安的是，萨姆·奥尔特曼的另一家初创公司还是叫做World Coin。
And World Coin was conceived with the goal of facilitating universal basic income, i.e. helping to create a system where people who don't have money are given money by the government just for being alive to help them cover their basic food and housing needs, which suggests to me that the guy that has bought the biggest air company in the world can see something that a lot of us can't see, which is there's going to be a system to just hand out money to people because they're not going to be able to survive otherwise. I found that one is a agree with that.
World Coin的构想是为了促进普遍基本收入，意思是帮助建立一个系统，让那些没有钱的人仅仅因为活着就能从政府那里得到钱，以帮助他们解决基本的食物和住房需求。这个想法让我觉得，那位购买了世界上最大航空公司的家伙看到了许多人看不到的事情，那就是将来会有一个系统来直接给人们提供资金，因为否则他们将无法生存。我发现我对此表示同意。
Which part did you disagree with? I disagree that, first of all, that humans would be happy with you, bi. I think that, you know, you know, core value of humans and be curious about the evolutionary reasons is we want to be useful. It's really important to know that a lot of the jobs that are at risk are the most high status highly paid jobs in the world. Let's take the highest paid job in America, which is an anesthesiologist. This is the highest paid job and the majority of that job is observing a patient knowing which type of medication would work best with their body, giving them the exact right amount, monitoring the impact of that on the body and then making slight adjustments.
你不赞同哪一部分？我不同意的是，首先，我认为人类不会对你的看法感到满意。我认为，人类的核心价值在于，我们希望自己是有用的，并对其演化原因感到好奇。重要的是要知道，许多面临风险的工作是世界上地位最高、薪资最高的工作。举个例子，美国收入最高的职业是麻醉师。这个职业主要包括观察患者，了解哪种药物最适合他们的身体，给予他们精确的药物剂量，监控身体的反应然后做出微调。
The right technology and any nurse will be able to do that job. And you might have one anesthesiologist on site supervising 10, 20, 30, 40 wards. And the technology is, you know, doing the job, but that one person is there just to kind of supervise if something went wrong or if there was an ethical dilemma. What's wrong with that? I mean, if the precision is better with it. There's nothing wrong with that except for the fact that a lot of people, hundreds of thousands of people have spent their entire life training to be that. They get an enormous amount of purpose and satisfaction about the fact that that's their career, that's their job. They have mortgages, they have houses, they have status and that's about to go away.
任何护士在合适的技术支持下，都能胜任这个工作。你可能只需一名麻醉师来监督10、20、30甚至40个病区。技术在执行工作，而麻醉师只是在出现问题或道德困境时进行监督。如果技术的精确度更高，这有什么问题呢？问题不在于技术本身，而在于成千上万的人一生都在接受训练成为麻醉师。他们从自己的职业中获得了巨大的成就感和满足感。他们有房贷、有房子、有社会地位，而这些可能会因此消失。
Well, if it's highest paid jobs, maybe you should start saving. Well, I mean, but you're talking about people who have done vital work, highly specialized work and are therefore not in a great position to pivot based on the invention of a technology that they didn't see coming because frankly, I mean, in the abstract, maybe we also AI coming somewhere down the road, but we did not know that it was going to suddenly dawn. And we do have to figure out what to do with those people. It's not their fault that they've suddenly become obsolete and it's inconceivable that people will accept this. It is not, it is fundamentally incompatible with our nature. We have to have things to strive for and, you know, you can sustain life that way, but you cannot sustain a meaningful existence. And so it's a short-term plan at best.
好的，如果你讨论的是收入最高的工作，也许你该开始存钱了。不过，我的意思是，你说的是那些从事重要工作和高度专业化工作的人，他们因此不太容易因为一项突如其来的技术发明而转行。坦率地说，尽管我们可能在抽象层面上知道人工智能在未来某个时候会出现，但我们并不知道它会突然崛起。我们确实需要想办法处理这些问题。这些人突然变得过时并不是他们的错，人们也难以接受这样的事情。这与我们的本性根本不兼容。我们需要有奋斗的目标，这样才能维持生活，但这种方式无法维持有意义的存在。因此，这充其量只是一个短期计划。
Let's talk about meaning. On that point of job displacement, this is already happening. Klaner CEO, who has been on this podcast before a great guy, said to on a blog post that they published on Klaner's website saying that they now have AI customer service agents handling 2.3 million chats per month, which is equal to having to hire 700 full-time people to do that. So they've already been able to save on 700 customer service people by having AI agents to do that. And they actually got rid of those 700 jobs, right? I don't have that information in front of me, but I'll throw it up on screen for anyone that wants context on that. But that's already happening. This isn't a mechatologist or something. And these are on high-paid people in every case.
让我们谈谈含义。关于工作被取代的这一点，这已经在发生。Klaner的CEO曾在此播客中出现过，他是个很棒的人，他在Klaner网站上的一篇博客文章中提到，他们现在有AI客服代理每月处理230万次对话，这相当于需要雇佣700名全职员工来完成这些工作。因此，他们已经能够通过AI代理节省掉700名客服人员。而他们确实取消了这700个岗位，对吧？我手头没有相关信息，但我会在屏幕上显示以便任何有需要的人了解更多背景。但这已经在发生。这不是某种未来学家的预测。这些被取代的也并不都是高薪工作。
We've done something similar, by the way. We've internally replaced that function for 70%. Yeah. I mean, our company, we're 65 people. And, you know, we make millions per head. You know, so it's a... Are you going to need to hire more people to get up to? So, but we're hiring slowly. Like, you know, we're using customer support AI and that meant that we need less customer support. And we're trying to leverage AI as much as possible. The person in HR at Rapid, writes software using Rapid. So it'll give you an example. She needed org charts software. And she looked at a bunch of them, got a lot of demos, and they're all very expensive. And they're missing the kind of features that she want. For example, she wanted like virgin controls. She wanted to know when something changed and to go back in history. She went into a rep that in three days, she got exactly the kind of software that she wants. And what was the cost? You know, perhaps $20, you know, something like that. $20. $30. Once, right? And how many employees in a charge do we need? Right now, we have two. If they're highly leveraged like that, maybe we do not need a 20-HR team.
顺便说一下，我们也做过类似的事情。我们内部已经用另外的功能替代了70%。是的，我的意思是，我们公司有65名员工。知道吗，我们的人均收入达到数百万。所以，是否需要更多的人来实现这个目标呢？不过，我们正在慢慢招聘。比如说，我们使用了客户支持AI，所以需要的客户支持人员也减少了。我们正在尽量多使用AI。比如说Rapid公司的HR人员，她自己用Rapid写软件。举个例子，她需要一个组织结构图软件。她研究了很多软件，参加了很多演示，但这些软件不仅价格昂贵，还缺少她需要的功能。例如，她需要版本控制，想知道什么时候有变化并回溯历史。她用了三个工作日就开发出了自己想要的软件。而成本呢？大概是20美元，差不多就是20或者30美元的一次性支出。而我们现在需要多少负责组织结构的员工呢？目前有两个。如果这些员工能够高效利用资源，可能就不需要一个20人的HR团队了。
On this point of meaning, I've heard so many billionaires in AI describe this as the age of abundance. And I'm not necessarily sure if abundance is always a great thing. Because, you know, when we look at mental health and we look at why, how people drive their meaning in their purpose in life, much of it is having something to strive towards and some struggle in a meaningful direction to you. And this is maybe a Jason, but when there was a study done, I think it was in Australia where they looked at suicide letters. And in the suicide letters, the sentiment of men in those suicide letters was they didn't feel worthy. They didn't feel like they were worth it. They didn't feel like they were needed by their families. And this is much of what caused their psychological state.
在这个意义上，我听到很多人工智能领域的亿万富翁称这一时期为“丰盛时代”。我并不一定认为丰盛总是件好事。因为，当我们关注心理健康以及人们如何在生活中寻找意义和目标时，大部分情况是因为有一些值得努力奋斗的事情，以及朝着对自己有意义的方向前进的挑战。也许这有些偏题，但在澳大利亚进行的一项研究中，他们分析了自杀者留下的遗书。在这些遗书中，男性表达的情感是他们觉得自己没有价值，不值得，被家人不需要。这种感觉对他们的心理状态影响很大。
And I wonder in a world of abundance where we, you know, a lot of these AI billionaires are telling us that we're going to have so much free time and we're not going to need to work if there is it all going to be a crisis of meaning, a mental health problem. I mean, there already is. And it doesn't require AI and it's going to get worse. I don't know what to do about it because essentially as human beings, we are built like all organisms to find opportunity and figure out how to exploit it. That's what we do. And the world you're describing is really the opposite of that. It's one where you're effectively having your biological needs at the physiological level satisfied.
在一个资源丰富的世界中，我想知道，当很多AI亿万富翁告诉我们，将来我们会有很多空闲时间，不用工作时，会不会出现一种意义危机或心理健康问题。事实上，这样的问题已经存在，而且不需要依赖AI就已经在恶化。我不知道该如何应对，因为从本质上来说，作为人类，我们和所有生物一样，都是为了寻找机会并加以利用。这就是我们的本性。而你所描述的世界正好相反，一个在生理层面上，生物需求已经得到满足的世界。
And there isn't an obvious place for your spare time. If that's what you end up with to be utilized in something that, you know, there's no place to strive. And I do imagine almost at best what would happen is you have people who are being sustained by a universal basic income and then parasitized, you know, whatever currency they have to spend, somebody will be targeting it and they will be targeting it with an AI augmented system that spots their defects of character. I mean, again, we're already living in this world, but it will be that much worse when the AI is figuring out, you know, what kind of porn to target you with specifically. That's a nightmare scenario. And I do think it would be worth our time as a species to start considering if we are about to find ourselves in this situation.
这段话翻译成中文意思是：在你的闲暇时间中，没有一个显而易见的地方可供利用。如果你最终用这些时间去做一些没有明确目标的事情，我想最好的情况是人们靠着普遍基本收入生活，但同时他们的财富却被剥削。无论他们有什么货币可以消费，总有人会盯上它，并且会利用人工智能增强系统来找到他们性格上的缺陷从而加以针对。事实上，我们已经生活在这样的世界里，但当人工智能能够准确知道应该给你推送哪种色情内容时，情况将会变得更糟。这是一个可怕的场景。我认为，作为一个物种，我们有必要开始考虑如果我们即将面临这样的境地，我们该如何应对。
And we find some way of dealing with the basic needs of the large number of people who are going to be sidelined. What would a world have to look like in order for them to have real meaning, not pseudo meaning, not something that, you know, superficially, you know, a video game is not meaning, even if it feels very meaningful in the moment. I think that would be a worthy investment for us to figure out how to produce it. But frankly, I'm not expecting us to either have that conversation or get very far down that road. I think it's much more likely that we will squander the wealth dividend that will be produced by AI. Interestingly, you also see in Western countries that when we get more abundance, we start having less kids. And we're already seeing this sort of population decline in the Western world, which is kind of scary.
我们需要找到一种方法来应对将被边缘化的大量人口的基本需求。为了让他们拥有真正的意义，而不是表面的或虚假的意义，比如电子游戏，即使在瞬间让人感觉很有意义，但它并不是真正的意义。 我认为，寻找方法实现这一目标是值得我们投资的。然而，坦白说，我并不指望我们会深入讨论这个问题，也不认为我们会在这方面取得多大进展。我觉得更有可能的是，我们会浪费掉人工智能带来的财富红利。有趣的是，在西方国家，随着物质更为丰富，人们开始生育更少的小孩。我们已经在西方世界看到了这种令人担忧的人口减少趋势。
I think it's often associated with affluence. The more money someone makes, the less likely they are to want to have children, the more they try and protect their freedoms. But also on this point of AI, relationships are hard. You know, my girlfriend is happy sometimes and not happy other times. And I have to like, you know, go through that struggle with her. I've like, working on the relationship. Children are hard. And if we are optimizing ourselves and, you know, much of the reason that I sustain the struggle with my girlfriend is I'm sure from some evolutionary reason because I want to reproduce and I want to have kin. But if I didn't have to deal with the struggle that comes with human relationships, romantic or platonic, there's going to be a proportion of people that actually choose that outcome.
我认为这通常与富裕有关。一个人赚的钱越多，他们越不愿意生孩子，更想保护自己的自由。不过在人工智能这个话题上，关系是很难处理的。你知道的，我的女朋友有时开心，有时不开心，我得与她一同经历这些挣扎，努力维护我们的关系。孩子也是很不容易的。如果我们在优化自己的生活，你知道的，我努力与女朋友一起度过这些挣扎，很大原因可能是出于某种进化上的原因，因为我想繁衍后代，想有家庭。但是如果我不用处理人际关系中那些浪漫或普通的烦恼，可能会有一部分人选择那样的结果。
And I wonder what's going to happen to birth rates and such. Sorry, because we're already struggling. We're already in a situation where we used to be having five children per woman in the 1950s to about two in 2021. And we're seeing a decline. If you look at South Korea, the fertility rate has fallen to 0.72, the lowest recorded globally. And if this trend continues, the country's population could have by 2,100. So yeah, relationships, connections. And also, I guess we've got to overlay that with the loneliness epidemic, which is they promised us social connection when social media came about. When we got Wi-Fi connections, the promise was that we would become more connected.
我很好奇未来的出生率会怎么样。很抱歉，因为我们已经在挣扎了。我们曾经在1950年代的时候，每位女性平均生五个孩子，到2021年已经降到大约两个。而且我们正目睹出生率的下降。如果看看韩国，生育率已经降到0.72，是全球记录中最低的。如果这种趋势继续下去，该国的人口到2100年可能会减半。所以，是的，这关系到人际关系、连接。我想我们还要考虑到孤独流行病，这个问题在社交媒体出现时曾承诺给我们带来更多的社交连接。当我们获得Wi-Fi连接时，承诺是我们会变得更紧密相连。
But it's so clear that because we spend so long alone isolated, having our needs met by UberEats drivers and social media and TikTok in the internet, that we're investing less in the very difficult thing of like going and making a friend, and like going and finding a girlfriend, young people having sex less than ever before. Everything that is associated with the difficult job of making in real-life connection seems to be falling away. I'll make the case that everything that we've discussed here, all the negative things around loneliness, around meaning, they're already here. And I don't think blaming technology for all of it is the right thing. Like I think there are a lot of things that happened because of existing human impulses and motivations.
但显而易见的是，因为我们花了太长时间独自隔离，通过UberEats外卖员、社交媒体和TikTok在互联网上满足我们的需求，以至于我们在与人交朋友、寻找女朋友等非常困难的事情上投入的精力变少了，年轻人发生性行为的频率比以往任何时候都低。与建立真实生活中的联系相关的任何困难都似乎正在消失。我想说的是，我们讨论的关于孤独和意义的所有负面现象都已经存在。而且我认为将所有问题都归咎于科技是不对的。我认为很多事情是由于人类固有的冲动和动机导致的。
Well, I wanted to go back to where you started, because I do think that this maybe is the fundamental question. Why is it that we are already living in a world that is not making us happy and is that the responsibility of technology? And I don't think it's exactly technology. Human beings among our gifts are fundamentally technological, whether we're talking about quantum computing or flintnapping an arrowhead. And what has happened to us that has created the growing spreading morphing dystopia is a process that Heather and I in our book, Hunter Gatherer's Guide to the 21st Century, call hyper novelty.
好的，我想回到你提到的起点，因为我确实认为这可能是一个基本问题。为什么我们已经生活在一个让我们不开心的世界里，而这是否是技术的责任呢？我不认为这是完全由技术导致的。拥有技术天赋是人类的基本特质，无论是量子计算还是打制石器箭头。这种日益扩散和变化的反乌托邦是由一个过程导致的，Heather和我在我们的书《猎人聚居者的21世纪指南》中称之为超新奇。
Hyper novelty is the fact of the rate of change outpacing our capacity to adapt to change. And we are already well past the threshold here where the world that we are young in is not the world that we are adults in. And that mismatch is making us sick across multiple different domains. So the question that I ask is, is the change that you're talking about going to reduce the rate of change, in which case we could build a world that would start meeting human needs better open opportunities for pursuing meaningful work, or is it going to accelerate the rate of change, which is in my opinion, guaranteed to make us worse off? So if it was a one-time shift, AI is going to dawn, it's going to open all sorts of new opportunities, there's going to be a tremendous amount of disruption. But from that we'll be able to build a world. Is that world going to be stable, or is it going to be just one event horizon after the next?
"超新奇"指的是变化的速度超过了我们适应变化的能力。而我们早已超越了那个临界点，即我们年轻时的世界与成年后的世界不再相同。这种不匹配正在多个方面影响我们的健康。因此，我想问的是，你所谈论的变化是否会减缓变化的速度？如果是这样，我们就可以开始建立一个更好地满足人类需求、为追求有意义的工作提供机会的世界；还是会加速变化的速度？在我看来，这无疑会让我们的状况更糟。如果这只是一次性的转变，人工智能的出现将带来各种新的机会，同时也会带来巨大的冲击。在此基础上，我们能否建立一个稳定的世界，还是说这个世界将不断面临一个又一个的未知事件？
If it's the latter, then it effectively says what it does to the humans, which is it's going to dismatilize. When I look out at society, I go, okay, it's having a negative impact. When I look at individual use cases, it's having a profoundly positive impact, including for me, it's having a very positive impact. So it's one of these things where I wonder, what is the, what is that we need to teach people at school, so that they understand the world that we're going into? Because one of the biggest issues that we're having is that we're sending kids to school with this blueprint, this template that they're going to have this long arc career that no longer exists, that essentially we're treating them like learning LLMs, and we're saying, okay, we're going to prompt you.
如果是后者，那么它实际上说明了它对人类的影响，也就是说它将导致混乱。当我观察社会时，我发现它正在产生负面影响。但当我查看个别用例时，它带来了极其积极的影响，包括对我个人都是如此。所以，这让我思考，我们需要在学校教给学生什么，以便他们理解我们将进入的世界？因为我们面临的最大问题之一是，我们用一种已经过时的蓝图把孩子们送去上学，这种蓝图假定他们会有一个长久的职业生涯。实际上，我们就像在对待学习大型语言模型那样对待他们，然后说，好吧，我们会给你们提示。
You're going to give us the right answer. You're going to hallucinate it if possible. And then we go, okay, now go off into the world and they go, oh, but wait a second, I don't know how money works. I don't know how society works. I don't know how my brain works. I don't know how I meant to handle this novelty problem. I'm not sure how to approach someone in a social situation and ask if they want to go on a date. So all the important things that actually are the important milestones that people want to be able to hit and that technology can actually have an impact on, we get no user manual. So I think one of the biggest things that has to happen is we have to equip young people all through school that to actually prepare them for the world that's coming, well, the world that's here. Well, on the one hand, I think you outline the problem very well.
你会给我们正确的答案。如果可能的话，你甚至会凭空想出答案。然后我们说，好吧，现在去现实世界中吧。他们却说，哦，等等，我不知道钱是怎么运作的。我不知道社会是怎么运作的。我不知道我的大脑是怎么运作的。我不知道该如何处理这些新奇的问题。我也不知道在社交场合如何接近别人并询问他们是否想约会。那么所有这些实际上对人们来说非常重要的里程碑，技术可以真正产生影响的方面，我们却没有指导手册。因此，我认为最重要的事情之一就是，我们必须在整个学校教育过程中让年轻人做好准备，以应对已经到来的世界。另一方面，我觉得你很好地指出了问题所在。
Effectively, we have a model of what school is supposed to do that, you know, at best, was sort of a match for the 50s or something like that. And it woefully misses the mark with respect to preparing people for the world they actually face. If we were going to prepare them, I would argue that the only toolkit worth having at the moment is a highly general toolkit. The capacity to think on your feet and pivot as things change is the only game in town with respect to our ability to prepare you in advance. Maybe the other auxiliary component to that would be teaching you what we know, which is frankly not enough about how to live a healthy life, right? If we could induce people into the kinds of habits of behavior and consumption of food and then train them to think on their feet, they might have a chance in the world that's coming.
我们现在实际上有一个关于学校应该做什么的模式，这个模式在最好的情况下也只是勉强符合上世纪50年代的情况。而对于如何准备人们面对实际世界，这个模式严重不适应。如果我们想要真正地准备他们，我认为目前唯一有用的工具箱就是一个高度通用的工具箱。具备迅速思考和根据变化调整的能力，这是我们能够提前为你准备的唯一有效方法。也许另一个辅助的方面是教你我们所知道的东西，说实话，这在如何过上健康生活方面其实还远远不够。如果我们能诱导人们养成某种行为习惯和饮食方式，再训练他们随机应变的能力，他们也许能在即将到来的世界里有一线生机。
But the fly in the ointment is we don't have the teachers to do it. We don't have people who know and that is the question is could the AI actually be utilized in this manner to actually induce the right habits of mind for people to live in that world? I spent a lot of time in education technology. One thing that as we say on the internet, a black pill about education and general education intervention is there's a lot of data that shows that there are very little interventions you can make in education to generate better outcomes. And so there's been a lot of experiment around pedagogy, around how to configure the classroom that have resulted in very marginal improvements.
但是问题在于，我们没有足够的老师来完成这项任务。我们缺乏具备相应知识的人，而这种情况下的问题是，人工智能是否能够被利用来培养人们适应未来世界所需的正确思维习惯？我在教育科技领域投入了大量时间。我们在网上常说，关于教育和普通教育干预的"黑色药丸"是：大量数据显示，在教育中几乎没有什么干预措施能够显著改善结果。因此，围绕教学法以及如何安排课堂的众多实验往往只带来轻微的改进。
There's only one intervention and this has been reproduced many times that creates two-sigma, two-statter deviation positive outcomes in education. Meaning you're better than 99% of everyone else. And that is one-on-one tutoring. I thought so. I was going to say smaller classrooms of personalization. One-on-one tutoring. By the way, if you look, someone also did a survey of all the geniuses, the understands of the world and found that they all had one-on-one tutoring. They all had someone in their lives that took interest in them and tutored them.
在教育领域中，唯一一个被多次验证并能产生两个标准差积极效果的干预措施就是一对一辅导。也就是说，通过这样的辅导，你的表现会超过99%的人。没错，我本来也想说小班教学或个性化教学，但实际上是一对一辅导。顺便提一下，如果你看看那些对天才或世界上聪明的人进行的调查，会发现他们都有一对一的辅导。他们生活中都有一个对他们感兴趣并指导他们的人。
So what can create one-on-one tutoring optionally for every child in the world? My kids use it and it's incredible. As in like they're interacting and it's adapting to their speed. And it's giving them different analogies to work with. So like my son was learning about division and it's asking him to smash glass and how many pieces he smashes it into with this hammer and it's saying things like, no, Zanda, go for it, really smash it. And he's loving it.
那么，什么可以为世界上每个孩子提供个性化的一对一辅导呢？我的孩子们在使用这种方法，效果非常好。可以说，他们在与其互动时，系统会根据孩子的学习速度进行调整，并给予不同的类比帮助理解。比如，我的儿子在学习除法时，它会问他用锤子砸碎玻璃，看看能把玻璃砸成多少块，并且鼓励他说：“大胆点，Zanda，把它砸碎！”他非常喜欢这种学习方式。
Is that synthesis? Yeah. I'm an investor in the sky. It's great to watch that simulated one-on-one tutoring because it's talking to him. It's asking him questions. You're an educator. You spend much of your life teaching people in universities. How do you receive all of this? Well, on the one hand, I agree that the closer to one to one, you get the better. But I also personally believe that zero to one is best.
这是综合学习吗？是的。我投入了“天空”项目。观看这种模拟的一对一教学非常棒，因为这个系统会与学生进行对话，并提出问题。您是一位教育工作者，花了大量时间在大学教授学生。您怎么看待这一切？嗯，一方面，我同意一对一的方式越接近真实就越好。但我个人也相信从无到有的学习是最好的。
And what I mean by that is part of what's gone wrong with our educational system is that it is done through abstraction and effectively the arbiter of whether you have succeeded or failed in learning. The lesson is the person at the front of the room. And that's okay if the person at the front of the room is truly insightful. And it's terrible if the person at the front of the room is lackluster which happens a lot.
我的意思是，我们的教育体系出了问题，其中之一就是教学以抽象的方式进行，而判断你学习成功与否的标准通常由站在教室前面的那个人来定。如果站在前面的人真正有洞察力，那还不错。但如果站在前面的人表现平平，那就很糟糕，而这种情况经常发生。
So what doesn't work that way is interaction with the physical world in which nobody has to tell you whether you've succeeded or failed. If you're faced with an engine that doesn't start, you can't argue it into starting. You have to figure out what the thing is that has caused it to fail. And then there is a great reward when you alter that thing and suddenly it fires up. So I'm a big fan of being as light-handed as possible and as concrete as possible in teaching.
所以，这种方式在与物理世界的互动中并不可行。因为在现实生活中，没有人会告诉你你是成功还是失败。如果你面对一个发动不起来的引擎，你无法通过争辩让它启动。你必须找出导致其失败的原因。当你解决了这个问题，引擎突然启动时，那种成就感是巨大的。因此，我非常推崇在教学中尽量少加干预，并尽量具体化。
In other words, when I've done it, and not just with students, but with my own children, I like to say as little as possible and I like to let physical systems tell the person when they've succeeded or failed. And that creates an understanding. You can extrapolate from one system to the next and you know that you're not just extrapolating from one person's misunderstanding. You're extrapolating from the way things actually work.
换句话说，当我这样做的时候，不仅是和学生，还有我自己的孩子，我喜欢尽量少说话，让物理系统自己告诉他们成功还是失败。这种方式能够帮助他们理解。你可以从一个系统推断到另一个系统，这样你就知道自己不是在从某个人的误解中推断，而是在根据事物的实际运作方式进行推断。
So I don't know if AI can be leveraged in that context. My sense is there's probably a way to do it but one would have to be deliberate about especially with robotics and humanoid robots. Actually that is the place where you can do this is with robotics. It seems to me, yeah, oh well, robotics will teach you the physical computing part of it. And then the question is how do you infuse this with AI so that it provokes you out of some eddy where you're caught and moves you into the ability to solve some next level problem that you wouldn't have found it on.
所以我不知道能否在这种情况下利用人工智能。不过我觉得可能有办法去实现，但需要特别谨慎，尤其是关于机器人和人形机器人。其实，这正是能用上机器人的地方。在我看来，是的，机器人会教你与物理计算相关的部分。接下来的问题是，如何将人工智能融入其中，以便在你陷入困境时激发你的思维，帮助你解决一些你原本可能无法发现的更高层次的问题。
What do you think should be taught in the classroom with everything that you now know? Well, you're all fathers here. You'll have your own children. So it's a good question. Yeah. How old are your kids? How old are your kids? 3 and 5? 19 and 21. And 6, 7 and 10. Am I sure I'm very young? But we already do use AI and I sit down with them in front of for upland and regenerate ideas and make make games and I would say, you know, what Brad said about generality is very important.
你认为在课堂上应该教授什么内容呢？鉴于你们现在所掌握的知识，这是一个值得思考的问题。你们都是为人父的家长，自然会考虑自己孩子的教育问题。那么，孩子们多大了呢？有的是3岁和5岁，有的是19岁和21岁，还有的是6岁、7岁和10岁。我是否还很年轻，不那么确定。但我们已经开始使用人工智能，和孩子们一起通过它激发创意，制作游戏。我认为布拉德提到的关于“通用性”的观点非常重要。
The ability to pivot and kind of learn skills quickly being generative is very, very important. Having a you know, a fast pace of generating ideas and iterating of those ideas. We sit down in front of chat GPT and Mike had imagined scenario. What if there's like, there's a cat on the moon and then you know, what if the moon is made of cheese and what if there's a mouse inside it or say, and so we keep generating these variations of these different ideas and I find that, you know, makes them more imaginative and creative.
灵活应变和快速学习新技能的能力，特别是在生成性方面，是非常非常重要的。能够快速产生想法并不断迭代这些想法。我们坐在ChatGPT前面，编造一个场景。例如，假如有一只猫在月球上，然后，假如月亮是由奶酪做的，再或者里面有一只老鼠等等。我们不断生成这些不同想法的变体，我发现这样可以让我们更加富有想象力和创造力。
Rule number one that I tell my kids is stay away from porn. At all costs, I'd rather you have a drug problem than a porn problem and I actually mean that. I think porn is more dangerous to the human being as bad as a drug problem is. But when we get to the question of how to confront the world and the things that you're going to be expected to do in the workplace and all of that, my point to them is you are facing the dawning of the age of complex systems that you are going to have to interact with and in the age of complex systems, you have to understand that you cannot blueprint a solution and you have to approach these systems with a upgraded toolkit of humility.
我告诉孩子们的第一条规则是远离色情，不惜一切代价。我宁愿你们有毒品问题也不愿有色情问题，我真的是这么认为的。我觉得色情对人类的危害比毒品问题还要严重。但是，当我们谈到如何面对世界以及将来工作中的期望时，我的观点是你们将面临一个复杂系统兴起的时代，你们需要与这些系统互动。在复杂系统的时代，你们必须明白，不能简单地规划一个解决方案，而是要以一种更加谦逊和升级的工具来应对这些系统。
Because the ability of the system to do something you don't predict is much greater than a highly complicated system. So you have to anticipate that and be very sensitive to the fact that what you intended to happen is not what's going to happen. So you have to monitor the unintended consequences of whatever your action is and that there are really two tools which work, one of which you just mentioned, which is the prototyping. You prototype things. You don't imagine that I know the solution to this and I'm going to build it. You imagine, I think there's a solution down there. I'm going to make a proof of concept and then I'm going to discover what I don't know and I'm going to make the next version discover what I don't know.
由于系统具备更高的不可预测能力，相比之下，它比高度复杂的系统更可能产生意料之外的结果。因此，你必须预见这一点，并高度关注你预期发生的事情和实际发生的事情之间的差异。所以，你需要监控任何行动可能带来的意外后果，其中有两个有效的方法，其中一个就是你刚提到的原型设计。你需要设计原型，而不是自认为已经找到了解决方案并直接着手构建。你需要假设可能有个解决方案，然后先做一个概念验证，接着不断发现自己的不足并在下一个版本中继续探索。
And eventually you may get to something that actually truly accomplishes the goal. So prototyping is one thing and also instead of using the blueprint as the metaphor in your mind, navigate. You can navigate somewhere and you know that the way I think of it is a surfer is in some ways mastering a complex system but they're not doing it by planning their days surfing down the way as you can't do that. What you can do is you can be expert at absorbing feedback and navigating down the way even that that's the right approach for a complex system. Nothing else is going to work.
最终，你可能会找到一个真正实现目标的方法。因此，原型设计是一种方法，而在思考时，与其把蓝图作为比喻，不如选择“导航”这一概念。你可以像导航那样进行探索。在我看来，冲浪者在某种程度上掌握了一个复杂的系统，但他们并不是通过计划自己的冲浪路线来实现的，因为那是不可能的。你能做的是熟练地接受反馈，并根据情况调整方向，这才是应对复杂系统的正确方法。除此之外，别无他法。
And so I guess the final piece is general tools always no specialization. This is the age of generalists and invest in those tools and they will pay. So the guiding philosophy for me is to produce high agency generalists. So ultimately I want them to be motivated, self-starters and have a wide general toolkit. I imagine them very much what you imagine which is instructing robots, instructing agents, coming up with ideas and I imagine them having a very high velocity life where they may be writing a book, organizing a festival, having a podcast, starting a business and being part of somebody else's business all at once.
所以，我想最后一点是，普遍工具永远不专注于某个领域。现在是通才的时代，投资这些工具将会有所回报。对我来说，指导哲学就是培养具备高主动性的通才。最终，我希望他们是有动力、主动出击的人，并且拥有广泛的通用工具箱。我想象他们就像你想象的一样，能够指挥机器人、指导智能体、提出创意，并过上节奏非常快的生活，比如同时写书、组织节日、做播客、创办企业，并参与到别人的企业中。
Is there of the ADHD? Yeah. So the high agency generalist is the kind of guiding philosophy. Some of the things that we do is like we do chess, we do Brazilian jiu-jitsu, we do dancing, we do acting classes, playing in nature, entrepreneurship, understanding that you can start a lemonade. We just did lemonade stands which was amazing. We sold lots of lemonade on the street. So those kind of things and jumping from one thing to the next thing but also trying to avoid too many screens and forcing them into making stuff from what's going on around the house.
有没有注意力缺失多动障碍的问题？有的。我们用一种叫高主动性通才的理念来指导。我们做一些活动，比如下棋、巴西柔术、跳舞、表演课程、在大自然中玩耍、创业等，意识到你可以开展像开办柠檬水摊位这样的活动。我们刚刚做了柠檬水摊位，非常棒，我们在街上卖了很多柠檬水。我们就是这样从一个活动跳到另一个活动，同时尽量避免过多使用电子屏幕，并且鼓励孩子们用家里的东西进行创造。
Some distinctions that we try and give them is the difference between creating and consuming because I think AI has this superpower of making you a hyper consumer or a hyper creator. And if you don't understand the distinction between creation and consumption, you end up falling into the consumption trap whether it be porn or just news or think you know things that feel like you're productive but you're actually just consuming stuff. Wouldn't that be the most successful AI? We want that plays with my dopamine the most.
我们试图教给他们的一些区别是创造和消费之间的差异，因为我认为人工智能具有让你成为超级消费者或超级创造者的超能力。如果你不理解创造和消费的区别，你最终会落入消费的陷阱，无论是色情、新闻，还是那些让你觉得自己在做有意义的事情，但实际上你只是在消费内容的东西。那不就是最成功的人工智能吗？我们想要的是能够最大程度地刺激我多巴胺的人工智能。
Yeah and makes you think that you're achieving something when you're actually just consuming something. So trying to give them the understanding that there is this difference in their life between creation and consumption and to be on the creation side. I started my first business at 12 years old and I started more businesses at 14, 15, 16, 17 and 18 and at that time what I didn't realise is that being a founder with no money meant that I also had to be the marketer, the sales rep, the finance team, customer service and the recruiter.
是的，这让你觉得自己在取得成就，实际上你只是在消费。所以我试图让他们明白，生活中创造和消费是有区别的，并且应该尽量倾向于创造。 我12岁时创办了我的第一家公司，接着在14、15、16、17和18岁时又创办了更多公司。那时我没有意识到，作为一个没有资金的创始人，我还必须兼任市场营销员、销售代表、财务团队、客服和招聘人员。
But if you're starting a business today, thankfully there's a tool that wears all of those hats for you, our sponsor today which is Shopify. Because of all of its AI integrations, using Shopify feels a bit like you've hired an entire growth team from day one, taking care of writing product descriptions, your website design and enhancing your product's images. Not to mention the bits you'd expect Shopify to handle like the shipping, like the taxes, like the inventory.
如果你今天打算创业，幸运的是，有一个工具可以帮你解决所有这些问题，那就是今天的赞助商 Shopify。由于其各种人工智能集成，使用 Shopify 感觉就像从第一天起就雇佣了一个完整的增长团队，为你处理商品描述、网站设计和产品图片优化。当然，还有你期待 Shopify 处理的其他部分，如运送、税务和库存管理。
And if you're looking to get your business started, go to Shopify.com slash Bartlett and sign up for a $1 per month trial. That's Shopify.com slash Bartlett. The thing that we, I think all agree on is that this is inevitable. Do you agree with that, Brad? I think it's sad that it is inevitable, but at this point it is. And what part of it do you find sad? We have squandered a long period of productivity and peace in which we could have prepared for this moment. And our narrow focus on competition has created a fragile world that I'm afraid is not going to survive the disruption that's coming. And it didn't have to be that way. This was foreseeable. I mean, frankly, the movie 2001, which came out the year before I was born, anticipates some of these problems.
如果你想启动自己的业务，可以访问 Shopify.com/Bartlett，注册每月1美元的试用活动。网址是 Shopify.com/Bartlett。我觉得我们都同意，这一切是不可避免的。你同意吗，Brad？我觉得这是一件悲哀的事情，但在现阶段，这确实是不可避免的。你觉得哪些方面让你感到悲哀？我们浪费了一个可以迎接这一刻的长期生产力和和平期，而我们对竞争的狭隘关注创造了一个脆弱的世界，这个世界恐怕无法承受即将到来的动荡。本不必如此。这一切是可以预见的。老实说，2001年的电影《2001太空漫游》，在我出生的前一年上映，就预见到了这些问题。
And we treated it too much like education. I mean, like entertainment and not enough like education. So we are now, we've had the AI era opened without a discussion about its implications for humanity. There is now for game theoretic reasons no way to slow that pace because, as you point out, if we restrain ourselves, we simply put the AI in the hands of our competitors. That's not a solution. So I don't advocate it. But there's a lot more preparation we could have done. We could have recognized that there were a lot of people in jobs that were about to be obliterated. And we could have thought deeply about what the moral implications were and what the solutions at our disposal might have been. And having not prepared, it's going to be a lot more carnage than it needed to be.
我们过于把它（技术）当作娱乐看待，而不够像教育一样认真对待。也就是说，我们开启了人工智能时代，却没有讨论它对人类的影响。由于博弈论方面的原因，现在已没有办法放慢这一进程。正如你所指出的，如果我们克制自己，就等于把人工智能的主动权拱手让给竞争对手。这显然不是解决方案，所以我不提倡这样做。但是，我们本可以做更多的准备。我们本可以意识到，会有很多人的工作即将消失，并深入思考这些变化带来的道德影响以及我们可以采取的解决措施。但是，由于没有做好准备，这种变化带来的代价将比本来需要的更大。
I'm sorry. I heard you say a second ago that what we should be talking about is how we deal with job displacement. Do you have any theories? If you were prime minister or president of the world and your job was to deal with job displacement, let's just say in the United States, how would you go about that? The first thing I would do is teach people about these systems, whether it's programs on the TV or outreach or what have you, just trying to get people to understand how chatgbity works, how these algorithms work. And as the new jobs arrive, I think there's going to be an opportunity for people to be able to detect that this job requires this set of skills.
对不起。我刚刚听到你说，我们应该讨论的是如何应对工作替代的问题。你有什么见解吗？如果你是世界上的总理或总统，你的任务是处理工作替代的问题，假设在美国，你会怎么做呢？我首先会做的是通过电视节目或外展活动等方式，向人们普及这些系统的知识，让他们了解像ChatGPT这样的技术是如何运作的，了解这些算法是如何工作的。随着新工作的出现，我认为会出现一个机会，让人们能够识别某个工作需要哪些技能。
I have this experience and although my experiences are potentially outdated, I can repurpose that experience to do that job. I'll give you an example. A teacher, his name is Adeel Khan, he started using the time GPT-3 and felt like it does amazing work as a tool for teachers or even potentially a teacher itself. So he learned a little bit of coding and he went to a replica and he built this company. And just two years later, there were hundreds of millions of dollars. Obviously not everyone will be able to create businesses of that scale. But because you have an experience in a certain domain, you'll be able to build the next iteration of that using technology. So even if your job was displaced, you'll be able to figure out what's potentially what potentially comes after that.
我有这样的经历，尽管我的经验可能已经过时，但我可以利用这些经验来完成那项工作。让我给你举个例子。一位名叫阿迪尔·汗（Adeel Khan）的老师，他开始使用GPT-3，并且觉得这个工具对于教师来说非常有用，甚至可以成为一个教师本身。因此，他学习了一些编程知识，创建了一个公司。仅仅两年后，这家公司便获得了数亿美元的收入。显然，并不是所有人都能创建这样规模的企业。但因为你在某个领域有经验，你可以利用技术构建该领域的下一代发展。因此，即使你的工作被取代了，你也能找到接下来可能会出现的机会。
So I think people's expertise that they built, I don't think they're all for waste, even if your job went away. You can never really predict what jobs are coming. I mean, I think of this crazy situation where I tell my grandfather what is a personal fitness trainer and he would, his mind would be blown by this idea that, well, okay, I don't really want to go to the gym. So I have to make an appointment and pay someone to go to the gym and meet with me there. And then he stands there and tells me to lift heavy things that I don't really want to lift.
所以我认为人们积累的专业技能，即使工作消失了，也不是完全无用的。因为你永远无法真正预测未来会出现什么新工作。比如，我想象一个有趣的情境：我告诉我的祖父什么是私人健身教练，他听到后会震惊不已。他会觉得奇怪：居然有人不想去健身房，所以还要预约并付钱给一个人，然后这个人在健身房指导你去举一些自己不想举的重物。
And then he counts them and tells me that I've done a good job and then I put the heavy things down. And then at the end of that, I feel really good and I pay him a bunch of money. My grandfather would be like, what on earth have you been scammed? So we can never predict what this future of jobs would look like. Even just a 20, 30, 40 years apart, the jobs rapidly and convincingly just morph into something else. I think it's very dangerous, the idea that we need to focus on skills. I think the future is not in skills, skills are being replaced.
然后他数了数那些东西，告诉我我做得很好，然后我放下那些重物。在一切结束后，我感到非常高兴，并且付给他一大笔钱。我的祖父会觉得，天啊，你是不是被骗了？因此，我们永远无法预测未来的工作会是什么样子。即使只有短短的20、30、40年，工作也会迅速且彻底地变成其他形式。我认为，专注于技能的想法是非常危险的。我认为未来不在于技能，因为技能正在被取代。
It's this idea that the education system has to stop being compartmentalized and has to be a lifelong learning approach. The Department of Education needs to be seeing people as lifelong learners who are constantly disrupted and need reeducation. Interesting. That's going to be a thing that the Department of Education needs to start as a kid and go right through to maybe 70. Does the Department of Education have a role anymore at all? It depends on your definition of education. I think if you're trying to teach kids or if you're trying to teach kids to remember facts and figures from a history book, then no.
这段话传达了一个观点，即教育体系不应再局限于传统的划分方式，而应采取终身学习的方法。教育部门应将人们视为不断受到冲击而需要再教育的终身学习者。这个概念很有趣，这意味着教育部门需要从儿童开始，一直持续到可能70岁。那么，教育部门还需要发挥作用吗？这取决于你如何定义教育。如果教育只是教孩子们记住历史书上的事实和数据，那么答案是否定的。
But if it's about coaching, mentoring, being displaced, finding the next thing, and maybe if it's AI driven and all of those kind of things, then it's a different paradigm shift around what education is and what its purpose is. If we see it as a fluid thing where we wave into an opportunity and then wave back into education, spotting a new opportunity and then back here, if we're learning, rather than skills, but we're learning tools. It's a tools-based education as opposed to a skills-based education. The purpose of education for most of human history was about virtue, about becoming a great person who had good judgment and who had good values. We don't really do much of that anymore. But I think if we essentially said, if we ask the question, what is the purpose of education, and where does it fit in our lives, and what time frame does it go for.
如果教育是关于指导、指导、适应变化、寻找下一个机会，可能还涉及人工智能等方面的话，那么这就会引发教育意义和目的的彻底转变。如果我们把教育视为一种流动的过程，比如从一个机会中进入，再回到教育，然后抓住一个新机会再回到教育中，这时候我们学习的不是具体技能，而是使用工具的方法。这种教育是基于工具而非技能的。在人类历史的大部分时间里，教育的目的是培养美德，成为具有良好判断力和价值观的人。现在我们不再太重视这些。但我认为，如果我们认真探问教育的目的是什么，它在我们生活中扮演什么角色，它应该多长时间展开，这样的问题可能会让我们重新反思教育的意义。
Then we just trust that people are going to come up with weird and wonderful jobs. You know, this sounds crazy, but also, and this is a weird analogy. My cat is incredibly happy. It demonstrates all the characteristics of being a happy cat, and it lives in a world of super intelligence as far as it's concerned. So there's this house, and food just magically happens. It has no idea that there's this Google calendar that runs a lot of things that happen around it. The food gets delivered. Money is magically made by something that is inconceivably more intelligent than the cat, and yet the cat has evolved to be living this life of purpose and meaning inside the house.
然后我们只是相信人们会创造出各种奇怪而奇妙的工作。你知道，这听起来很疯狂，但这也是一个奇怪的比喻。我的猫非常快乐，它表现出所有快乐猫咪的特征，并且在它看来，它生活在一个超级智能的世界里。这个屋子里，食物就像变魔术一样出现。它完全不知道周围的很多事情是由一个谷歌日历安排的。食物会被送来，钱似乎是由某种远远超出猫智力的东西神奇地赚取的。然而，猫已经适应了这种生活，并在这个屋子里找到了生活的意义和目标。
And as far as it's aware, it's got a great life. But you have the power at any moment if you're having a bad day to do something not so pleasant to that cat, and it can't really reciprocate that. Exactly, but what's in it for me to hurt the cat? Because in this analogy, you might want to move house, and the landlord doesn't allow cats. So you've got a decision to make. Yeah, there are things that the cat is highly disrupted by due to no fault of the cat. I get it. But as far as cat existence goes, and the history of cats, if you were to ask that cat, do you want to trade places with any of the other cats that came before you?
据它所知，它的生活很好。但是，如果你过得不顺心，你随时有权力对那只猫做些不那么愉快的事情，而猫没法回报你。没错，但我有什么理由去伤害那只猫呢？在这个比喻中，比如说你想搬家，而房东不允许养猫，所以你需要做出一个决定。是的，有些事情会对猫造成很大的影响，而这不是猫的错。我明白。但是就猫的生存和猫的历史来看，如果你问那只猫，它是否愿意和以前的任何一只猫交换位置？
It would probably say, I don't want to take the risk, because all the other cats had to fend for themselves in a way that I don't have to. It's very possible that we end up living in a lot like the house cat, in the sense that from our perspective, we're extremely, like we're having very interesting lives and purpose meaning, and just there's this massive higher intelligence that's just running stuff. And we don't know how it works, but it doesn't really matter whether how it works. We are the beneficiaries of it, and it's doing important things and where, enjoying being house cats in its life.
它可能会说，我不想冒险，因为其他猫都得自己生存，而我不需要。很有可能，我们最终会像家猫一样生活。从我们的角度来看，我们的生活非常有趣，充满意义和目的，而在我们之上，有一个巨大的高级智慧在掌控一切。我们不知道它是如何运作的，但这并不重要，因为不管它如何运作，我们都是它的受益者。我们享受着像家猫一样的生活。
I have a few things to say, but it's one, I'm pretty sure your cat's not as impressed with your capacity as you are, or as you think he is. I just know cats well enough to be pretty sure of that. Oh, it looks down on me. Yeah, you're right. I think it's a fair point that there is an existence, and actually, you know, pets really do have it. If they have loving owners, they really do have it pretty great. And I would also point out that there's a way in which we already are this way. Most of us do not understand the process that results in electricity coming out of the walls of our house or the water that comes out of the tap, and we're pretty much okay with the fact that somebody takes care of that, and we can busy ourselves with whatever it might be.
我有几件事想说，但其中一点是，我几乎可以确定你的猫对你的能力并不像你自己或你以为的那么印象深刻。我对猫非常了解所以我很确定这一点。哦，它可能看不起我。是的，你说得对。我觉得这是个合理的观点，其实，宠物的确拥有幸福的生活。如果它们有爱它们的主人，那它们真的生活得不错。我还想指出的是，我们已经在某种程度上处于这样的状态。大多数人并不了解家里墙上插座里的电力或自来水的运作过程，但我们对有人管理这些事情感到心安理得，并专注于自己的事情。
But the place that I find something troubling in your description is that you say that the nature of what we do is to deal with the fact that jobs are always being upended. That's a very new process. That is the hyper novelty process. It used to be that it was only very rarely that a population had a circumstance where you didn't effectively do exactly what your immediate ancestors did, right? In general, you took what the jobs were. You picked something that was suited to you, and you did that thing. Intergenerationally. Intergenerationally.
但是，我在你的描述中发现一个让我感到困惑的地方。你提到我们所做的事情的本质是要应对工作不断被颠覆的事实。这是一个非常新的过程，属于超级新奇的过程。过去，一个群体很少遇到这样的情况，即你不能有效地做与直系祖先完全相同的工作。通常，人们会继承已有的工作，选择适合自己的那个，然后代代相传地持续做下去。
The point is we've now gotten to the point where even within your lifetime, what is possible to get paid for is going to shift radically in ways that nobody can predict. And that is a dangerous situation. Like probably every two years, like two or three years. Right. And so maybe there's some model by which we can surf that wave, and you can learn a generalist toolkit, and your survival doesn't depend on your being able to switch up every two years and never miss a beat, or maybe we can't. But I do think it is worth asking the question. If the rate of technological change has taken us out of the normal human circumstance of being able to deduce what you might do for a living based on what your ancestors did, and put us in a situation where what your ancestors did is going to be perfectly irrelevant no matter what.
意思是，我们现在已经到了这样一个阶段，即使在你的有生之年，能够赚到钱的方式也会以无人能预测的方式发生巨大的变化。这是一个危险的局面。可能每两三年就会有变化。所以，也许我们可以找到某种方式，顺应这个变化的潮流，通过学习一套通用技能，让你不必每两年就完全改变方向而依然能够生存下去，也许我们做不到。不过我认为这个问题是值得思考的。如果技术变革的速度已经使我们脱离了传统的人类生存方式——即根据祖辈们的职业来判断你可以从事什么工作，而让我们处于一种无论祖辈们做什么都与我们的职业选择完全无关的境地，该怎么办。
But that is effectively a choice that has been made for us. And we could choose to slow the rate of change so that we would live in some kind of harmony where our developmental environment and our adult environment were a match. Now as a biologist, I would argue, if we don't do something like that, this is a matter of time. How would we change? How do we slow the rate of change? Well, I mean, you can you can be the omnis, right? You can be the omnis in living your own communities, and I would assume some people would want that.
但实际上，这已经是为我们做出的选择。我们可以选择放缓变化的速度，以便生活在一个我们的成长环境和成年环境相匹配的和谐之中。作为一名生物学家，我认为，如果我们不采取类似的措施，那么只是时间问题。我们该如何改变？我们要如何减缓变化的速度？嗯，你可以选择像全能者一样，生活在自己的社区里，我想会有人愿意这么做。
Well, I'm, you know, when Heather and I wrote our book, I wanted the first chapter to be, are the omnis right? And the answer is they can't be exactly right because they picked an arbitrary moment to step off the escalator, but are they right that there's something dangerous about this continuing pattern of technological change? Clearly they are. What's the omnis do for anyone that doesn't know? The omnis live as if it was what 1850 or something?
好吧，你知道的，当海瑟和我写书的时候，我想把第一章设定为“全能者（omnis）是否正确？”答案是他们不可能完全正确，因为他们选择了一个任意的时刻停止进步。但是，他们是否正确地认为持续的技术变革存在某种危险？显然是的。那么，全能者是什么呢？对于不知道的人来说，全能者就像是在过1850年的生活一样。
So they live in a they don't use cars. They I think they do have phones, but they do not have electricity. Basically, they they voluntarily accept a techno. They're basically a luddite community, and they have turned out to fare surprisingly well against many of the things that have upended modernism, right? Yeah, COVID. They did beautifully. Quite happy people.
所以，他们生活在一个不使用汽车的地方。我想他们是有手机的，但没有电。他们基本上是自愿生活在一个技术落后的社区，类似路德派的生活方式。他们在应对许多颠覆现代社会的事情时表现得出人意料地好，比如新冠疫情。他们过得很好，是一群很快乐的人。
Very low autism rates. They they have all sorts of advantages. So anyway, I'm not arguing that we should live like the omnis. I don't see that, but I do think the idea that they had an insight, which was you need to step off that escalator because you're just going to keep making yourself sicker is probably right. Now, maybe this is a one-time shift. We've stepped over the event horizon.
自闭症发生率非常低。他们有各种各样的优势。无论如何，我并不是在说我们应该像omn们那样生活，我并不这么认为，但我确实认为他们有一个见解是对的，那就是你需要从那个"自动扶梯"上下来，因为你只会让自己越来越糟。现在，也许这是一种一次性的转变，我们已经跨过了事件视界。
We're going to be living in the AI world. And maybe if we're careful about it, we can figure out how to turn that landscape of infinite possibility that you're describing into a place that doesn't change, that you always have the opportunity to decide what needs to be done, but that none that the that living over that event horizon is not an ever-changing process. It's just the next frontier.
我们即将生活在一个人工智能的世界里。如果我们小心应对，也许可以找到办法，把你所描述的那种无限可能的景象，转变成一个稳定的环境。在这个环境中，你总是有机会去决定需要做些什么，但在那个事件视界(科学上常用于描述黑洞四周的看不见的边界，超越该边界后，一切将被黑洞吞没)之外生活并不是一个不断变化的过程，而只是下一个新的领域。
I do want to also propose or ask the question when we talk about a hyper-changing world. Isn't it harder for older people to learn because of the way that the brain works in terms of processing speed and memory flexibility? So I was wondering if you're going to get a situation where like my father, because of his brain and the reduced memory flexibility and processing speed that happens when you're older is going to struggle significantly more than my niece who can seem to learn, I mean, my niece knows five languages and she's seven or something crazy like that. I have languages.
我想提出一个问题，当我们谈论一个快速变化的世界时，是否对于年长者来说更难学习，因为大脑在处理速度和记忆灵活性方面的特性？所以我想知道会不会出现这样一种情况：像我的父亲，由于年纪大了，大脑的记忆灵活性和处理速度降低，会比我七岁的侄女（她似乎能学会五种语言，非常了不起）面临更大的学习困难。
But when the brain is much more plastic, isn't it? So that's goes back to our evolutionary psychology, which you know, much evolutionary history, which you know, much more than I do about, of we're meant to learn our lessons when we're young. Use that information for a lifetime, but if that information's changing quickly, well, that's, I mean, this is exactly what I'm pointing to.
但大脑在更具可塑性的时候，不是吗？这可以追溯到我们的进化心理学，你对此的了解比我多很多。我们被设计为在年轻时学习，并在一生中运用这些信息。然而，如果这些信息变化得很快，那就是我正要指的重点。
It is not normal for your developmental environment to fail to prepare you for your adult environment. The normal thing is as a young person, you take on ever more of the responsibilities of the adult environment. And then at some point, you know, properly functioning culture, there's a right of passage you go into the bush for 10 days, you come back with, you know, a large, you know, game animal. And now you're an adult and you take that program that you've been building and you activate it.
在正常情况下，你的成长环境应该为成人环境做好准备。这意味着，作为年轻人，你需要逐步承担更多成人世界的责任。在一个运作正常的文化中，通常会有一个成人仪式，比如到野外生活10天，然后带着一只大型猎物回来。这时，你就被视为成年人，并能够将之前一直在建立的能力付诸实践。
And that is normal. And, you know, you're a lot happier person. You're a lot more fulfilled if your life has that kind of continuity to it. And, you know, I'm not against the idea that we have enabled ourselves to do things that can't be done if that's the limit. But we have also harmed ourselves gravely. And I would like to somehow pry apart our ability to improve our well-being from our self-inflicted wounds that come from this never-ending pace of change.
这是正常的。你知道的，如果你的生活有这种连续性，你会是一个更快乐、更满足的人。我并不反对我们超越极限，做到一些原本无法做到的事情的想法。但我们也因此给自己带来了严重的伤害。我希望能在提高我们的幸福感和由这种无休止的变化节奏带来的自我伤害之间，找到一个平衡点。
And I don't know if it's possible, but I think it's a worthy goal. Something amusing, I don't know if it's exactly how to point, but during COVID, especially in, you know, through the recent technological change, some people have started living closer to the more ancestral environment. So people whose jobs are online, some of my friends like went and built communities, like collectives, where they, you know, live and they create farms and they, and then they, and they have like an email job.
我不知道这是否可能，但我认为这是一个值得追求的目标。有件事挺有趣的，我不知道这样说是否准确，但在 COVID 期间，尤其是最近的技术变革中，有些人开始生活得更接近他们的祖先环境。一些工作在线上进行的人，比如我有些朋友，去创建了像集体社区一样的地方，他们在那生活，建立农场，同时也进行一些邮件工作。
They do their email jobs for five hours and go out and they're all have children and it's a fascinating life. And there was so much rethinking and Silicon Valley about how we live. And there's a bunch of startups that are trying to create cities where they're like, okay, we know that we're suffering because our cities are not really walkable.
他们处理电子邮件工作五个小时后就外出，他们都还有孩子，过着一种引人入胜的生活。在硅谷，有很多关于我们生活方式的反思。许多初创公司正在尝试创建新的城市，他们意识到我们痛苦的一个原因是城市不够适合步行。
And there's so many reasons why we're suffering. First, we're not getting the movement. Second, there's a social aspect of walkable city where you're able to interact with people. You'll make friends by just happening to be in the same places others, let's actually build walkable cities. And if we want to, you know, transport faster, we'll have these self-driving cars on the perimeter of the city that are going around.
我们正在遭受痛苦的原因有很多。首先，我们缺乏运动。其次，步行城市的社交方面很重要，我们可以与人互动。你可以因为恰好和别人出现在同一个地方而结交朋友。我们应该真正建设适合步行的城市。如果我们想要更快的交通方式，可以在城市外围使用自动驾驶汽车来实现。
And I think there are ways in which technology can afford us to live in a way that reverses, I guess, in a more local way. I like that vision, but I also am aware that there's a different vision, right? You see people in Palo Alto, for example, actually exerting, you know, very strong controls on how much their children are exposed to, you know, to phones and...
我认为技术可以让我们以更本地化的方式生活，这可能是一种逆转的方式。我喜欢这个愿景，但我也意识到，还有另一种愿景。比如你会看到在像帕洛阿尔托这样的地方，人们实际上对孩子接触手机的时间和程度进行着非常严格的控制。
I live in Palo Alto. Yeah. So you see that. On the other hand, what I am worried about is that the elites of Palo Alto don't realize that what they're doing is they're figuring out how to reduce the harm to their own families as they're exporting the harm to the world of these technologies that for everybody else are unregulated.
我住在帕洛阿尔托。是的，你可以看到。在另一方面，我担心的是，帕洛阿尔托的精英们没有意识到，他们所做的是在想办法减少对自己家庭的伤害，同时却把这些技术带来的伤害输出到全世界，而对其他人来说，这些技术是没有受到监管的。
And so the question is, can we bring everybody along? If the AI revolution is going to alter our relationship to work and everything else, can we bring everybody along so that at the end of this process, instead of saying, well, you know, it's a shame that, you know, three billion people were sacrificed to this transition, but progress is progress. We can really say, well, we figured it out.
问题在于，我们是否能让所有人都参与其中？如果人工智能革命将改变我们与工作的关系以及其他一切，我们能否做到让每个人都跟上这个变化的步伐，以至于在这一过程结束时，我们不是遗憾地说“真可惜，有三十亿人被牺牲在这个转型中，但进步就是进步”，而是能够真正地说“我们解决了这个问题”。
And everybody now is living in a style that is closer to their programming and closer to the expectations of their physical bodies. You know, if that were true, then I would be... I would love to be wrong in my fears about what's coming, but unfortunately, the market is not going to solve this problem without our being deliberate about forcing it to. Well, two biggest fears. Like when you say my fears about what's coming, what do you... What's the picture that comes in your mind? It's a whole different topic, actually. My fear coming, stemming from technology and AI is that this is a runaway process and that that runaway process is going to interface very badly with some latent human programs that in effect, the need for workers largely disappears and the people who are at the head of the processes that result in that elimination for the need for workers start talking about useless eaters. Maybe they come up with a new term this time.
如今，每个人的生活方式都更加贴近他们的本性和身体需求。你知道，如果这是事实，那我宁愿我对未来的忧虑是错误的。但不幸的是，如果我们不刻意干预，市场是无法自行解决这个问题的。关于未来，我最担心的有两个方面。当你提到对未来的忧虑时，你脑海中浮现的是什么画面？其实这是一个完全不同的话题。我对未来由科技和人工智能引发的担忧是，这可能会变成一个失控的过程，而且这种失控会与一些潜在的人类需求产生很坏的影响，例如对劳动力的需求大幅减少。而在这一过程中处于主导地位的人们可能会开始谈论“无用的吃饭者”，也许这次他们会想出一个新名词来形容。
In the head. Yep. Or they allow it to be thinned or something. Right. I've heard you talk about the five key concerns you have. Well, five key threats you have before. Could you name those five? So the first one is the one I worry least about. I don't worry zero about it, but I worry least about it, which is the malevolent AI that the tumors are so focused on. The second one is the idea that an AI can be misaligned, not because it has divergent interest, but because it just misunderstands what you've asked. These autonomous agents, the famous example is you ask them to produce as many paper clips as possible and they start liquidating the universe to make paper clips. And you know, it's a sorcerer's apprentice kind of issue.
在脑海中。是的。或者他们允许它变薄或者什么的。对。我听你谈论过你担心的五个主要问题或者威胁。你能说一下是哪五个吗？第一个是我最不担心的。虽然不是一点不担心，但这是我最少担心的一个，即恶意的人工智能，这是大家非常关注的问题。第二个是人工智能可能会出现不对齐的问题，不是因为它有不同的利益，而是因为它误解了你的要求。这些自主代理的著名例子是你要求它们尽可能多地生产回形针，然后它们开始把整个宇宙都用来制造回形针。这有点像魔法师的学徒的问题。
The third one I would say is actually all of the remainder of them, I would say are guaranteed. And the third of them is the derangement of human intellect that we are already living in a world where it's very difficult to know what the facts even mean. The facts are so filtered and we are so persuaded by algorithms that it's our ability to be confident even in the basic facts, even within our own discipline sometimes is at an all time low and it's getting worse. And that problem takes a giant leap forward at the point that you have the ability to generate undetectable deepfakes. That's going to alter the world very radically when the fact that you're looking at videotape of somebody rubbing a bank doesn't mean that they robbed a banker that a bank was even robbed.
第三点，其实可以说包括了其他所有的问题，我认为是可以肯定会发生的。第三个问题是人类智力的混乱，我们已经生活在一个很难理解事实意义的世界。事实被过滤得非常厉害，而我们又被算法影响得如此之深，以至于即使对自己领域中的基本事实的确信能力也达到了历史最低点，而且还在恶化。当你能够生成无法检测的深度伪造（deepfake）时，这个问题会大幅度地加剧。这将极大地改变世界，因为你看到的一个人在视频中抢银行，并不意味着他们真的抢了银行，甚至并不意味着银行被抢劫了。
So anyway, I call this deal with this a lot by the way. I think every single week, every single week I sense my... I have a chat people that just are now basically spending I'd say 30% of their time dealing with deepfakes of me doing crypto scams inviting people to telegram groups and then asking them for credit card details. We had one on X. I think you probably saw it down. But that someone was running at deep big ads on X. And it wasn't just one ad. It was like they were it was like swatting flies. There was 10 of them and I message them to X and there was 10 more than the day after there was 10 more than the day after there was 10 more. Then it started happening on meta.
无论如何，我每周都会遇到这种情况。我觉得每周都有。我有一个团队，他们现在有大约30%的时间在处理关于我伪造的“深度伪造”（deepfake）事件，这些事件中有人利用我的假身份进行加密货币诈骗，邀请人们加入Telegram群组，然后向他们索要信用卡信息。我们在X平台上就遇到过这种情况。我想你可能也看到了。有人在X平台上投放了假的大规模广告，而且不止一个广告，就像打苍蝇一样，今天有10个，我给X平台发信息，第二天又有10个，接下来一天又有10个。然后这种情况在Meta上也开始发生。
So it's a video of me basically asking you to come to a telegram group where people are being scammed and audience members of my being scammed. And when I send them to matter, they thankfully remove them. But then there's five more. So I don't want to link to yesterday and my DMs are Steve, by the way, there's this new scam. And I actually at this point, I need someone full time just sending this over to matter. I'm the same but on a small scale every week. It's, did you really message me on Facebook asking me for my crypto wallet and blah blah blah. My least favorite ones when the single mother messages me saying that she just paid five hundred pounds of her money and how devastated she is.
这段话主要描述了我制作了一个视频，请求大家加入一个电报群。在这个群里，有人被诈骗，而我的观众也常常被骗子盯上。当我把这些诈骗信息报告给相关平台时，他们会立即删除那些骗子的信息，但是很快又会出现五个新的骗子。所以我现在不想链接到昨天的情况，并且每天在我的私信里都会有很多人告诉我有新的骗局出现。其实我现在真希望能有一个全职的人来帮我把这些信息发给相关平台。每个星期都会遇到这样的情况。比如，有人问我是不是在Facebook上发信息要求他们提供加密货币钱包等等。我最不喜欢的情况是，当单身母亲发消息告诉我她刚被骗了五百英镑的辛苦钱，并且非常沮丧的时候。
I feel this moral obligation to give her her money back because she's fallen for some kind of scam. That was me. It was my voice. It was a video of me telling her something. Yeah. And I don't know how you deal with that. Sorry. Do you continue? Well, I mean, that's actually on the list here. The massive disruption to the way things function, both because people are going to be unemployed in huge numbers and because those who are not abiding by our social contract are going to find themselves empowered more than the people who do. So in this case, not only use this poor woman, you know, now out five hundred bucks for whatever the scam was, but you've also been robbed. Whether or not you pay her back for the thing that she thought she purchased, your credibility is being stolen by somebody and you have no capacity to prevent it.
我觉得有道德责任把钱还给她，因为她被骗了。这件事就是我干的。是我的声音，是我的视频，在告诉她一些东西。我不知道该怎么处理。抱歉，你还要继续吗？好吧，我的意思是，这其实是我们现在面临的一个重大问题。因为大量的人将会失业，而且那些不遵守社会契约的人可能会比那些遵守的人获得更多的权力。这种情况下，不仅这个可怜的女士因为骗局损失了五百美元，你也因此受到了伤害。即使你把她以为买到的东西的钱还给了她，你的信誉也被别人偷走了，而你无能为力来阻止这一切。
This has happened to me also and it is profoundly disturbing and it is only one of a dozen different ways that AI enables those who are absolutely willing to shrink the pie from which we all derive in order to enlarge their slice. You know, there are innumerable ways that this can happen and I think people do not see it coming. They don't understand how many different ways they are going to be robbed every bit as surely as if somebody was printing money. And then the last one is that this just simply accelerates demographic processes that do potentially result in the unleashing of technologies that pre-existed AI. You know, this can easily result in an escalation into wars that turn nuclear.
这件事也发生在我身上，而且让我感到非常不安。这只是人工智能让那些甘愿缩小我们共同利益的人扩大自己的份额的众多方式之一。要知道，这种情况会通过无数种方式发生，我认为人们没有意识到这一点。他们不明白，以各种方式被剥夺利益的可能性，就好像有人在不停地印钞票一样确凿无疑。最后一点是，这实际上加速了人口过程的发展，可能会导致解锁那些在人工智能出现之前就存在的技术。你知道，这很可能导致核战争的升级。
So anyway, I think that list could probably be augmented at this point. Now that we've spent a little time in the AI era, we can begin to put a little more flesh on the bones, both of what is possible in this era and what we should fear. One of those you mentioned the truth, you know, the problem of truth. Would you say, a thought experiment? Someone today, like an average person, college educator, say person, are they more propagandized or led astray than someone in Soviet Russia?
所以，总之，我认为现在可以对这个名单进行补充。既然我们在人工智能时代已经度过了一段时间，我们可以更清楚地了解在这个时代可能实现的事情以及我们应该担心的事项。其中你提到一个问题，就是关于真相的挑战。假设进行一个思想实验：当今的普通人，比如说一个接受过大学教育的人，是否比生活在苏联时期的人更容易受到宣传影响或者被误导呢？
Well, I don't know because I didn't live in Soviet Russia. But my understanding from people who did was that there was a wide awareness that the propaganda wasn't true. It doesn't mean they knew what to believe. But there was a cynicism, which is one of my fears here, is that the, you know, you're really stuck choosing between two bad options in a world where you can't tell what is true. You can either be overly credulous and be a sucker all the time, where you can become a cynic, and you can be paralyzed by the fact that you just don't believe anything. But neither of those are recipes for you.
我不太清楚，因为我没有在苏联时期生活过。但根据那些生活在那个时期的人所说，他们普遍意识到宣传并不真实。这并不意味着他们知道该相信什么。但有一种怀疑态度，这也是我担心的问题之一，因为在一个无法辨别真假的世界里，你只能在两个坏选项中做出选择。你可能会过于轻信，随时上当受骗；也可能变得愤世嫉俗，因不相信任何东西而陷入瘫痪。但这两种态度都不是好的解决办法。
Do you think Google search first that maybe now Chagypti has helped people more or less to find truth? I think that's not Chagypti exactly, but all of the various AI engines that have briefly enhanced our capacity to know what's true because, in fact, they allow us to see through the algorithmic manipulation because the AI is not well-policed. You can yet to recognize patterns that people will swear are not true. And so anyway, a lot of us have found it useful in just simply unhooking the gas lighting.
你觉得谷歌搜索是否在某种程度上帮助人们找到真相？我认为这不是Chagypti的功劳，而是各种AI引擎在短时间内增强了我们辨识真相的能力。因为这些AI虽然未被很好监管，但它们确实帮助我们看穿了算法操控。尽管如此，你仍能够发现一些模式，人们可能会坚持认为这些模式不真实。不管怎样，很多人发现这些工具有助于解除被误导的经历。
So that's been very positive. But I also remember the early days of search, and search used to be a matter of there are some pages out there. I don't know where they are. Here's a mechanized something that's looked through this stuff and just point me at the direction of things to contain these words. Before the algorithmic manipulation started steering us into believing pure nonsense because somebody who controlled these things decided it was useful for us to believe those things.
所以这一直是一个非常积极的方面。但我也记得搜索引擎刚出现的早期，那时的搜索很简单：网页在那里，但你不知道在哪里。于是出现了一种自动化的工具，可以搜索这些内容并指引我们找到包含我们想要词汇的网页。这是在算法操控开始引导我们去相信一些虚假信息之前，因为某些掌握这些技术的人决定让我们相信这些内容对我们有益。
So my guess is at the moment AI is enhancing our ability to see more clearly, but that really depends on some kind of agreement to protect that capacity that I'm not aware of us having. I'm trying to use implying that AI will protect us from the AI, the woman that got scammed in my audience. The platforms would have a tool built in which would be able to identify shortly that that is not me, and that has been launched by someone in another country potentially.
所以我猜测目前人工智能正在增强我们更清晰思考的能力，但这真的取决于是否有某种协议来保护这种能力，而我并不知道我们是否有这样的协议。我的意思是暗示人工智能会保护我们免受人工智能的侵害，就像我观众里被诈骗的那个女士一样。平台应该内建一个工具，能够很快识别出那不是我的内容，并且很可能是由另一个国家的人发布的。
And then also when she starts being asked for her credit card details in such a way on telegram, 10 minutes later, the system will able to understand there that this is probably a scam at that touch touch point two, and it will also be the defense, not just the offense. First thing, the question is meta incentivized to solve this problem. Yes. Yes. And so meta is probably actively working on AI's.
然后，当她开始在Telegram上被要求提供信用卡信息时，10分钟后系统就能够意识到这可能是一个骗局。这不仅是进攻，更是防御。首先，Meta是否有动力去解决这个问题？答案是肯定的。所以Meta可能正在积极研发人工智能技术。
And again, it's going to be a catamount game like every abuse that happens out there. So I think that the market will naturally respond to things like that. And the same way that we install any viruses as annoying as they are, I think we'll install AI's on our computers that will allow us to at least help us sort the faith from the truth.
再一次，这将像外界发生的每一次滥用行为一样，是一场猫鼠游戏。因此，我认为市场自然会对这些事情做出反应。就像我们安装令人烦恼的病毒一样，我认为我们也会在电脑上安装人工智能，以帮助我们分辨真相和信仰。
Well, but let's take the example you say is meta incentivized to solve this problem. Superficially, it seems that it should be. But how many times in recent history have we watched a corporation cannibalize its own business over what at best is the bizarre desires of its shareholders? Why was X throwing off people with large accounts or Facebook or Google?
好的，但是让我们以你所说的“元激励”来解决这个问题的例子来看。表面上看，它似乎应该这样做。但在最近的历史中，我们有多少次看到一家公司为了迎合股东奇怪的愿望而自毁长城呢？为什么某些公司会从平台上踢出拥有大量账户的人呢，比如Facebook或Google？
It would seem that you would expect based on the market choosing search engines or social media sites. You would expect these companies to be absolutely mercenary and say, you know, if Alex Jones has a big audience, who are we to say? That's what I would have expected. Instead, you had these companies policing the morality of thought, even though it reduced the size of the population using the platforms.
根据市场对搜索引擎或社交媒体网站的选择，你可能会认为这些公司会非常功利。你可能会期待他们说，如果 Alex Jones 有一个庞大的受众，我们有什么理由去说不？这本是我所预想的。然而，这些公司却开始对思想的道德进行监管，即使这导致使用这些平台的人数减少。
I have a hard time explaining why that happened, but I have every reason to expect the same thing will happen with AI. What are you excited about with AI? What's your optimistic take? Because at the start of this conversation, you said that there's infinite ways that it can improve our lives and there's 10 times more ways that it could hurt our lives. But let's investigate some of those ways that it could drastically improve our lives. There's a couple of different ways. One, we have, as we mentioned before, a dearth of competent teachers and professors. And that is a problem that will take three generations at least to solve if what we're going to do is start tomorrow and start educating people in the right way that would make them competent to stand at the front of a room and educate.
我很难解释为什么会发生这样的事情，但我有充足的理由相信同样的事情也会发生在人工智能上。你对人工智能有什么期待呢？你对未来有什么乐观的看法？因为在我们对话开始时，你说过人工智能有无限种方式可以改善我们的生活，但也有十倍更多的方式可能会损害我们的生活。让我们探讨一些它可能大幅改善我们生活的方式。有几种不同的方式。其一，如我们之前提到的，世界上缺乏有能力的教师和教授。如果我们从明天开始以正确的方式教育人们，让他们有能力站在讲台上教学，这个问题至少需要三代人才能解决。
But if we can augment that process, if we can leverage a tool like AI so that, you know, a small number of competent teachers can maybe reach a larger number of pupils. That's plausible, I think. Second thing is we have a tremendous number of problems that are obstacles to us living well on this planet that AI might be able to manage that human intellect alone cannot, right? Just in the same way that, you know, compute power can calculate things that are right. The human beings can't keep up and there are certain things you want calculated very well. There are also some reasoning problems. You could imagine that instead of having static laws that govern behavior poorly because they get gained, that you could have a dynamic interaction. You could specify an objective of something like a law.
但是，如果我们可以增强这个过程，如果我们可以利用像人工智能这样的工具，那么少量有能力的教师可能可以接触到更多的学生。我认为这是可能的。其次，我们在地球上生活得更好面临着大量的问题和障碍，而这些问题可能是仅靠人类智慧无法解决的。就像计算能力可以解决人类无法处理的计算问题一样，我们有时需要非常精确的计算。此外，也存在一些推理问题。你可以想象，与其使用那些容易被操纵的固定法律来规范行为，我们可以通过动态互动来实现。我们可以设定一个目标，如同法律一样。
And then you could monitor whether or not a particular intervention successfully moved you in the direction that you were hoping to go or did something paradoxical, which happens all the time. And you could have, you basically have governance that is targeted to navigation and prototyping rather than to specifying a blueprint for how we are to live. So we've been politicians. At the moment, we're stuck with, you know, constitutional protections that are as good as has been constructed and still inadequate to modern realities. Dan, what are you excited about with AI from an individual level, but also from a societal level?
然后，你可以监测某个特定的干预措施是否成功地朝着你期望的方向发展，或者是否产生了经常发生的矛盾效果。基本上，你可以进行一种以引导和原型开发为目标的管理，而不是制定我们应该如何生活的蓝图。所以我们都曾是政治家。目前，我们被现有的宪法保护所束缚，这些保护虽然已经构建得尽可能完善，但仍无法充分应对现代现实。Dan，从个人层面和社会层面来看，你对人工智能的哪些方面感到兴奋？
Yeah, well, the big ones are healthcare and education. I mean, it's ridiculous that you are sitting there in pain, having had an MRI and there just hasn't been someone to look at that MRI yet and tell you what to do. And that could easily be solved. There's all sorts of healthcare issues where, and also not only that, throughout the entire world, there are places that just don't have general practitioners and they don't have medical advisors and, you know, the breakthroughs in global healthcare will be phenomenal.
是的，主要的问题在于医疗和教育。我觉得很荒谬，你明明做了一个核磁共振检查，却还没找到人来看结果并告诉你接下来该怎么做，这个问题完全可以解决。在医疗方面存在各种各样的问题，不仅如此，全世界有些地方甚至没有全科医生或医疗顾问。全球医疗领域的突破将会非常惊人。
And the breakthroughs in global education could be transformational on the planet. I'm excited at an individual level that I think the industrial age created a bunch of jobs that are very dehumanizing and we've just kind of got news to them and put up with them. The idea that work should be repetitive and, you know, you just repeat the same loop over and over and over and over again and over a 10-year period of time you might get, you know, graduated up one gear and all that kind of stuff. I don't think that's very human. The idea that you could be simultaneously writing a book, launching a business, running a team, launching a festival, having an event that you could actually be doing this kind of like mini-kingdom work where you've got this little, you know, ecosystem around you, a fun things that you're involved in.
在全球教育领域的突破可能会对整个星球产生变革性的影响。我个人感到兴奋，因为我认为工业时代创造了许多让人感觉失去人性的工作，而我们只是习惯了这些工作并勉强接受。工作的概念往往是重复性的，你需要一遍又一遍地做同样的事情。在十年间，你可能会获得一点晋升，但这一切并不真正符合人性。相反，你可以同时写书、创业、管理团队、举办节日、组织活动，你可以从事这种“小王国”工作，围绕自己建立一个有趣的小生态圈。
That is actually made possible for a vast majority of people if they embrace these kind of tools. You can live an incredibly fulfilling and amazing and impactful existence. Or I know that I do as a result of having these tools in my life. Like I'm doing things that I could have only dreamed about as a kid. And what do you say to entrepreneurs? I know you work with thousands of entrepreneurs. What are you telling them in terms of their current businesses or business opportunities that you're foreseeing?
如果大多数人能够接受这些工具，这一切实际上是可以实现的。你可以过上非常充实、惊奇且有影响力的生活。因为拥有这些工具，我自己就是这样，我在做一些只有小时候才能梦想到的事情。那你对企业家有什么建议呢？我知道你与成千上万的企业家合作。关于他们目前的业务或你所看到的商业机会，你会怎么告诉他们呢？
So I think that small teams have infinite leverage now and that when you have a team of say five to ten people who share an incredible passion for a meaningful problem in the world and they want to see that meaningful problem solved and they come together in the spirit of entrepreneurship to solve that problem. That little five to ten person team armed with the technology that we now have available. You can have a big impact. You can make a lot of money. You can have a lot of fun. You can solve meaningful problems in the world. You can scale solutions. You can probably do more in a three-year window than most people did in a 30-year career.
我认为，现在小团队拥有无限的杠杆作用。当一个由五到十人组成的小团队，共同对世界上有意义的问题充满热情，并希望看到这些问题得到解决时，他们以创业精神走到一起来解决这些问题。这样一个由五到十人组成的小团队，借助我们现有的技术，可以产生巨大的影响。你可以赚很多钱，享受很多乐趣，解决世界上有意义的问题，扩大解决方案的规模。你在三年内可能做的事情，比大多数人三十年的职业生涯中所能做到的都要多。
And then that little band of five to ten people could either go together onto a new meaningful problem or they could disband and work on other meaningful problems with different teams. In such a world where you have this infinite leverage but everyone else has access to the same infinite leverage. What becomes the USP going back to the side of the moat? What is the thing of value when we've all got access to $20 infinite leverage?
然后，那五到十人的小团队可以选择一起去解决一个新的有意义的问题，或者解散后与其他团队合作解决不同的有意义问题。在这样一个世界中，你拥有无限的资源，而其他人也能接触到同样的无限资源。这时，面对护城河的另一端，什么才是独特的卖点（USP）呢？当我们都能获取价值无限的$20时，什么才是有价值的东西？
Well first of all the first thing you need to do you need to understand is that this moment of time is the least competitive moment. If you understand how to use these tools you can start making money tomorrow. I see countless examples of people making thousands of dollars with these hustles that I talked about or building businesses that generates millions of dollars in the first couple months of existence. So I would say start moving now, start building things.
首先，你需要明白的是，现在这个时刻是竞争最小的时候。如果你知道如何使用这些工具，你明天就可以开始赚钱。我见过很多例子，有人用我提到的方法赚了几千美元，或者在头几个月就建立了能够创造百万美元收入的企业。所以，我建议你现在就开始行动，开始创造。
So it's an unprecedented time of wealth creation. Clearly at some point as the market gets more efficient as people, more and more people understand how to use these tools there's less potential for creating these massive businesses quickly. And we've seen this like the dawn of the internet, dawn of the web, it was a lot easier to create Facebook than it is now. Then we had mobile and for three, four or five years it was very easy to create massive businesses and then it became harder being just the edge of what's possible.
这是一个前所未有的财富创造时期。显然，随着市场变得越来越高效，以及越来越多的人学会使用这些工具，快速创建这些大规模企业的潜力就会减少。我们已经见证了类似的情况，比如互联网的兴起、万维网的出现。在那个时候，创建像Facebook这样的公司要比现在容易得多。随后是移动互联网时代，在那三到五年之间，创办大企业相对容易，但随着技术边界的推进，这变得愈发困难。
It's going to be very, very important over the next couple of years. And that gets me really excited because the entrepreneurs who are paying attention are going to are going to be having the most amount of fun but they're also going to be able to a lot of money. How many applications have been built on Repplet to date? I can talk about the millions of things that have been built since we started the company, but just since September when we launched Repplet Agents, there's been about three million applications built purely in natural language with no coding at all, purely natural language.
在接下来的几年里，这将会变得非常非常重要。这让我感到非常兴奋，因为那些关注这一趋势的创业者不仅会享受到其中的乐趣，还能赚很多钱。目前为止，在Repplet上已经开发了多少应用程序呢？自公司成立以来，我们已经开发了数以百万计的项目，但仅自从今年九月我们推出Repplet Agents以来，已经用纯自然语言（完全不需要编码）开发了大约三百万个应用程序。
Of those I think three hundred, four hundred thousand of them were deployed in a real the site was deployed and it is having people are using it, some kind of business, some kind of internal tool. I built one last night by the way. An internal tool or? I built an application to track how my kids earn pocket money. So I just told it that I wanted to track the tasks that are happening around the house and put a sign of value to them.
我猜其中有三十万到四十万的应用程序已经被实际部署，并且有人在使用它们，可能是某种商业应用或是某种内部工具。顺便说一句，我昨晚也做了一个。是一个内部工具吗？我开发了一个应用程序来跟踪我孩子如何赚零花钱。我只需要告诉程序我想跟踪家务活，并为它们分配一个价值。
And I want to be able to at the end of the week push a button and get a summary of how much to page child or their pocket money. We are so screwed. And within 15 minutes it had created this application and it was amazing. Like you could toggle between like here's the place where you have the kids and here's the weekly reports and here's the how much per task and you can tick off the tasks or remove tasks or add tasks.
我希望能够在每周结束时按下一个按钮，就能得到一个关于给孩子零花钱的总结。我们太惊讶了。仅仅用了15分钟，它就创建了这个应用程序，真的令人惊叹。你可以在不同的界面之间切换，比如这是孩子们的界面，这是每周报告的界面，还有这是每个任务的金额界面。你可以勾选任务、删除任务或者添加任务。
So then I now have this application for which took 15 minutes of just talking about what I wanted and now I have an application to run the pocket money situation in the in the house. And this is by the way it's something having run a 90 agency years ago that's something that we would have charged five to ten thousand pounds to create or five to ten thousand US dollars to create. And how much time? Probably talking something that would have been a three, four week project.
所以，我现在有了这个应用程序，只用了15分钟谈论我想要的东西，现在我就有了一个可以管理家庭零花钱情况的应用程序。顺便说一下，多年前我经营一家代理机构时，这样的项目我们会收费5000到10000英镑或美元。而需要多少时间呢？可能需要三到四周才能完成。
And we're at the start of the S curve now that you're describing and it's already yeah. If it's a $20, replettes roughly $20 a month. 25. For the base case you did one day of usage. Let's say it's a dollar. Yeah. It cost you and it cost you minutes and a dollar now and we're at the start of the S curve.
我们现在正处于你所描述的S曲线的起点，目前形势已经开始发展了。如果说这个项目每月大约20美元，那么每月大约是25美元。在你计算的基本情况下，一天的使用成本可以说是1美元。现在，它不仅花费了一些时间成本，还花费了1美元。目前，我们正处于S曲线的起点。
And you talk to it like you're chatting to a developer. So one of the things that slows down the development process is you have to send the information to a developer and they need to understand it and then they need to create something and then come back to you. This just happens in front of your eyes while you're watching it and it's actually showing you what's being built.
你可以像和开发人员聊天一样与它对话。开发过程变慢的一个原因是，你需要把信息发送给开发人员，他们需要理解信息，然后创建一些东西，再回到你这里。而这个过程现在就在你眼前发生，它实际上会向你展示正在构建的内容。
It's really wild. This one change has transformed how my team and I move train and think about our bodies. When Dr. Daniel Lieberman came on the dioreverse co he explained how modern issues with their cushioning and support are making our feet weaker and less capable of doing what nature intended them to do. We've lost the natural strength and mobility in our feet and this is leading to issues like back pain and knee pain.
这真的很不可思议。这个改变彻底改变了我和我的团队移动、训练以及思考我们身体的方式。当 Dr. Daniel Lieberman 参与讨论时，他解释了现代的鞋子设计如何通过过多的缓冲和支撑让我们的脚变得更弱，无法完成自然赋予它们的功能。我们已经失去了脚部的自然力量和灵活性，这导致了背痛和膝痛等问题。
I'd already purchased a pair of Viva barefoot shoes so I showed them to Daniel Lieberman and he told me that they were exactly the type of shoe that would help me restore natural foot movement and rebuild my strength but I think it was planter for shilters that I had where suddenly my feet started hurting all the time. And after that I decided to start strengthening my own foot by using the Viva barefoot and research from Liverpool University is back this up. They've shown that wearing Viva barefoot shoes for six months can increase foot strength by up to 60%. Visit vvobarefoot.com slash DOAC and use code diary 20 from my sponsor for 20% off. A strong body starts with strong feet.
我已经买了一双Viva赤足鞋，于是我把它们展示给Daniel Lieberman看，他告诉我这正是能帮助我恢复自然足部运动和重建力量的鞋子。然而，我想可能是因为足底筋膜炎，我的脚突然开始一直疼。之后，我决定通过穿Viva赤足鞋来增强我的脚部力量，来自利物浦大学的研究也支持这一点。他们的研究显示，穿Viva赤足鞋六个月可以将脚部力量增加多达60%。请访问vvobarefoot.com/DOAC，并使用我的赞助商提供的代码diary20享受20%的折扣。强壮的身体始于强壮的双脚。
This has never been done before. A newsletter that is ran by 100 of the world's top CEOs. All the time people say to me they say can you mentor me can you get this person to mentor me how do I find a mentor. So here is what we're going to do. You're going to send me a question and the most popular question you send me I'm going to text it to 100 CEOs some of which are the top CEOs in the world running a hundred billion dollar companies and then I'm going to reply to you via email with how they answered that question.
这以前从未有人做过。一个由全球100位顶级CEO运营的新闻简报。常常有人问我：“你能做我的导师吗？” 或“你能找这个人来指导我吗？” 我们该如何找到导师呢？所以，我们打算这样做：你们给我发一个问题，而我会挑选你们发送最多的问题，然后把这个问题发给100位CEO，其中一些是管理千亿美元公司的一流CEO。接着，我会通过电子邮件回复你，告诉你他们是如何回答这个问题的。
You might say how do you hold on to a relationship when you're building a startup. What is the most important thing if I've got an idea and don't know where to start? We email it to the CEOs they email back we take the five six top best answers we email it to you. I was nervous because I thought the marketing might not match the reality but then I saw what the founders are replying with and their willingness to reply and I thought actually this is really good and all you've got to do is sign up completely free.
你可能会问，当你在创办一家初创公司时，如何维持一段感情。假如我有一个创意却不知道从哪里开始，最重要的是什么？我们会把这个问题发邮件给一些CEO，他们会回复，我们会从中挑选出五六个最好的答案，再发给你。起初我有些紧张，因为担心营销宣传可能与实际不符，但当我看到创始人的回复和他们积极反馈的意愿时，我觉得这实际上很不错，而且你只需完全免费注册即可。
I don't think we've spent a lot of time talking about autonomous weapons. This is the thing that really worries me and the thing that worries people about AI is this idea is that it is this emergent system and there's no one thing behind it it can be it can act in a way that's unpredictable and not really guided by humans. I also think it's true of corporations of governments and so I think individual people can often have the best intentions but the collective can land on doing things in a way that's harmful or morally irrepognites and I think we talked about China versus the US and that creates a certain race dynamics where they're both incentivized to cut corners and potentially do harmful things.
我认为我们并没有花太多时间讨论自主武器。这是让我非常担心的一个问题。关于人工智能，人们所担心的是它作为一个自主演化的系统，背后没一个具体的操控者，因此它可以以无法预测的方式行动，并且不完全受人类控制。我认为这同样适用于企业和政府，个体可能常常抱有良好的意图，但集体行为可能会导致有害或不道德的结果。我们也谈到了中国与美国的对比，这导致了特定的竞争动态，使得双方都有可能在某些方面走捷径，进而做出潜在有害的决定。
In the world of geopolitics and wars what really scares me is autonomous weapons and what does it scare you? Because you can imagine autonomous drones being trained on someone's face and you can send a swarm of drones and they can be this sort of autonomous killing assassination machine and it can sort of function as a country versus country technology and the world of war which is still crazy but it can also become a tool for governments to subjugate the citizens and people think we're we're safe in the West but I think the experienced work gov it showed that even the systems in the West can very quickly become draconian.
在地缘政治和战争的世界中，让我感到真正恐惧的是自主武器。什么让你感到害怕呢？因为你可以想象，有自主无人机被训练来识别人脸，然后可以派出一群这样的无人机，成为一种自动执行暗杀任务的机器。这种技术可能会被用于国家之间的战争，这已经够疯狂的，但它也可能成为政府用来压制公民的工具。很多人认为我们在西方国家是安全的，但我认为，亲身经历的事件已经表明，即使是西方国家的系统，也可能很快变得严酷无情。
Yeah apparently I've heard in Iran that they have facial recognition cameras that detect where the women are wearing hijabs in their own cars and it automatically detains the car if you're driving and you're not wearing a hijab and certainly if you're walking down the street it just picks that up and immediately you're in trouble. It acts as a police officer and a judge and a lawmaker it's the judge jury and executioner essentially and it just happens instantaneously.
据说在伊朗，他们安装了面部识别摄像头，可以识别女性在自己车内是否戴着头巾。如果你开车时没有戴头巾，系统会自动拦截车辆。而且，如果你在街上走，没有戴头巾，摄像头会立刻识别并让你面临麻烦。这个系统就像警察、法官和立法者，实际上就是一名“判决者”和“执行者”，而且这些都是瞬间发生的。
What happened in Canada with the truckers sort of protests where they froze their bank account by virtue of just being there. Just by being in that location. Yeah and just to confirm that Iran has implemented a comprehensive surveillance system to enforce its mandatory hijab laws utilizing various technologies one of which is cameras and facial recognition so they've put cameras in public spaces to identify women who are not adhering to their hijab dress code.
在加拿大，发生了卡车司机的抗议活动，他们只是因为参与其中，就被冻结了银行账户。仅仅是因为他们出现在那个地点。是的，确认一下，伊朗已经实施了一套全面的监控系统，用于强制执行其强制性的头巾法律，这套系统利用了多种技术，其中之一是摄像头和人脸识别技术。他们在公共场所安装了摄像头，用来识别那些不遵守头巾着装规定的女性。
And just on that London has just put those facial recognition systems into London and also all throughout Wales and they're being rolled out at speed and like all you would need is a change of government that wanted to implement something similar and all the base layer technologies already in there. It gets a little bit worse in Iran because they have this new app called the Nizah app where the government has introduced the Nizah mobile application which allows you as a citizen to report another citizen who is not wearing their hijab and it looks their location at time when they went wearing it and the vehicle license plate with the crowdsourced data it can then go after that individual.
伦敦刚刚引入了面部识别系统，不仅在伦敦，还在整个威尔士迅速推广。只要政府一换届，如果想实施类似政策，基本技术框架其实已经到位。伊朗的情况则更糟，他们推出了一款名为Nizah的应用程序。政府推出的这款手机应用允许公民举报未戴头巾的其他公民，并记录他们当时的位置和车辆牌照信息。通过这种众包的数据，政府可以追踪到特定的人。
I would also just point out that I think we're not being imaginative enough. I agree with you I have the same concern about these autonomous weapons but I also think this doesn't have to occur in the context of war or even governmental oppression that is perfectly conceivable that effectively this allows this drops the price of an undetectable or an un-possacutable crime and maybe economic moats return in the form of people taking out their competitors or anybody who attempts to compete with them using an autonomous drone that can't be traced back to them you know that follows facial recognition and you know you don't have to kill very many people for others to get the message that this is a zone that you shouldn't mess around in so I could imagine you know effectively a new high-tech organized crime that protects rackets and makes tons of money and subjugates people who haven't done anything wrong.
我还想指出，我觉得我们想象力不够。我同意你的看法，对这些自主武器也有同样的担忧。但我也认为，这不一定非得发生在战争或政府压迫的背景下。完全可以想象，这些技术有效地降低了无从察觉或无法追踪的犯罪成本。或许随着自主无人机的使用，一些经济护城河会以新的形式回归，比如用这些无人机来对付竞争对手或任何试图与他们竞争的人。你知道，无人机可以通过面部识别来锁定目标，而你并不需要杀很多人，其他人就会收到这个信息：这是一个不该轻易涉足的区域。所以，我能想象出现一种新的高科技有组织犯罪形式，它既能保护其利益圈，也能赚取巨额利润，并压制那些无辜的人。
I had Mustafa Suleiman on the podcast in 2023 when this all of this stuff started kicking off and he is the CEO of Microsoft AI. You're familiar with Mustafa of course yeah and one of the things he said to me at the time was one of my fears is a tiny group of people who wish to cause harm are going to have access to tools that can instantly destabilise our world that's the challenge how to stop something that can cause harm or potentially kill that's where we need containment and it sounds a little bit like what you're saying I'm sure that we'll now have these tools you were talking in the context of the military but as Brett said there even smaller groups of people that might have been I don't know cartels or gangs can do similar harm and at the moment in terms of autonomous weapons both the US and China are investing heavily in AI powered weapons autonomous trains on cyber warfare because they're scared of the other one getting it first and we talked about how much of our lives run on the internet but cyber weapons and cyber AI agents that could be deployed to take down China's x, y or z or vice versa are of real concern.
在2023年，我在播客中采访了穆斯塔法·苏莱曼，当时这一切刚刚开始爆发。他是微软人工智能的CEO。你当然熟悉穆斯塔法，他当时对我说，他的一个担忧是，一小部分想要制造破坏的人将获得可以立即扰乱我们世界的工具。这就是挑战所在：我们如何阻止那些可能造成伤害或潜在杀伤的东西，这需要我们进行遏制。听起来有点像你所说的。我相信我们现在将拥有这些工具。你当时是在军事背景下说的，但正如布雷特所说，甚至更小的群体，例如贩毒集团或黑帮，也可能造成类似的危害。目前，在自治武器方面，美国和中国都在大力投资于人工智能驱动的武器，自动化列车以及网络战，因为他们害怕对方抢先获得这些技术。我们谈论了很多我们生活依赖互联网，而网络武器和可以部署来摧毁中国的某些系统的网络人工智能特工，反之亦然，都是真正令人担忧的问题。
Yeah I think all of that is is a real concern you know I like Mustafa I don't think containment is as possible part of the reason why this game theoretic system of competition between the US China corporations individuals makes it so that this technology is already you know as I was already out really hard to put it back in the in the bag I did ask him this question and I remember the answer because it was such a stark moment for me I said to Mustafa do you think it's possible to contain it and he replied we must so I asked him again I said do you think it's possible to contain it and he replied we must and I asked him again I said do you think it's possible to say the problem so the problem with that uh chain of thinking is that it might lead to an oppressive system yeah uh there is uh one of the say doomers or philosophers of of AI which I respect his work his name is Nick Bostrom and he he he's he was trying to think of ways in which we can contain AI and the things that he came up with is perhaps more oppressive than something that the AI would is like total surveillance state you need total surveillance on compute on people's computers and people's ideas to not invent AI or AI so taking the guns or something right exactly.
我认为这一切确实是个值得关注的问题。你知道，我喜欢穆斯塔法，但我认为遏制这种技术是很难实现的。部分原因在于，美国、中国以及其他国家的公司和个人之间的竞争，就像一个博弈论系统，使得这种技术已经传播开来，想要将其束缚住几乎是不可能的。
我曾经问过穆斯塔法这个问题，我记得他的回答，因为那一刻让我印象深刻。我问他：“你认为有可能遏制这项技术吗？”他回答说：“我们必须这样做。”然后我又问他同样的问题，他还是回答：“我们必须这样做。”我再次问他该怎么解决，问题在于这种思维方式可能导致一个压迫性的体系。
有一位我很尊敬的AI领域的哲学家，尼克·博斯特伦，他尝试考虑如何遏制AI，但他提出的方法可能比AI本身还压迫。例如，建立一个全面监控的国家，需要对计算机及人们的想法进行彻底的监控，以防止AI的发明或扩散。就像全面禁止枪支一样，对吧？没错。
I mean there's always there's always this problem of containing any sort of technology is that you do need oppression and draconian policies to do that are you scared of anything else or concerned about anything else as that relates to AI outside of autonomous weapons you know we talked about the birthrate crisis and I think a more generalized problem there is creating virtualized environments via VR where everyone is living in their own created universe and uh it's so enticing and even creates simulates work and simulates struggle uh such that you don't really need to leave this this world and so every one of us will be solipsistic you know similar to the matrix ready player one ready.
我的意思是，控制任何技术总会存在问题，因为需要压制和严厉政策来实现这一点。关于人工智能，除了自动化武器之外，你有没有对其他方面感到害怕或担忧？我们谈到了出生率危机，我认为一个更普遍的问题是通过虚拟现实（VR）创造虚拟环境，让每个人都生活在自己创造的宇宙中。这种虚拟世界非常有吸引力，甚至可以模拟工作和奋斗，使得人们不再需要离开这个世界。这样一来，我们每个人都会变得像《黑客帝国》或《头号玩家》中的角色一样，只关注自己的独立世界。
Player one we're all kind of uh plug even worse than a ready player one at least that's a massively that worked environment I'm talking about AI simulating everything uh for us and therefore you're literally in the matrix you know maybe this is about that type of I've enjoyed this great simulation yes and and and so I mean do you know where the Fermi's paradox no no so Fermi's products is the question uh the you know professor his name is Fermi he asked the question uh if the universe is is that vast then where are the aliens the fact that humans exist you can deduce that other civilizations exist and if they do exist then why don't we see them and then that spurred a bunch of Fermi solutions so there's uh I don't know you can find hundreds of solutions on the internet one of them is the sort of house cat thought experiments where actually aliens exist but they kind of put us in environments like the omniscient a certain time and do not expose us to what's going on out there so they it where pets maybe they're watching us and kind of enjoying uh what we're doing still thing is from heading ourselves stopping us from early ourselves there's so many things but one of the things that I think is potentially a solution to the Fermi's paradox and one of the saddest outcomes is that civilizations progress until they invent technology that will lock us into infinite pleasure and infinite simulation such that we we don't have the motivation to go into space to seek out the exploration potentially other alien civilizations and perhaps that is a determined outcome of humanity or like a highly likely outcome of any species like humanity.
玩家一：我们现在的状况有点像《头号玩家》，但比那个还要糟糕。在《头号玩家》中，人们生活在一个大型虚拟的环境中，而我说的是一种由人工智能模拟一切的情况。这样，我们就像是处于《黑客帝国》中的情境中。 我很喜欢这种伟大的模拟。
你知道费米悖论吗？不知道？费米悖论是由一位名叫费米的教授提出的问题。他问道，如果宇宙如此广阔，为什么我们没有发现外星人？既然人类存在，根据推理应该有其他文明存在，那为什么我们找不到它们呢？这就引发了很多关于费米悖论的解决方案。
其中一个理论是 "家猫实验"。这种理论认为外星人可能确实存在，但他们把我们放在一个被控制的环境中，不让我们接触外面的真实情况，可能他们把我们当作宠物来观察，并享受我们的活动。这可能是在防止我们自我毁灭的同时，也是一种观察和享受。
在许多费米悖论的可能解答中，其中一个我认为可能的解决方案，也是最悲哀的结果之一，就是文明会进展到创造出锁定我们在无限快乐和无限模拟中的技术。这样一来，我们便没有动力去探索太空，也没有动机去寻找其他外星文明。或许这是一种既定的结果，是对于像人类这样的物种来说，高度可能的结局。
We like pleasure pleasure and pain is the main motivators and so if you create an infinite pleasure machine does that mean that we're just at home in our VR environment with everything taking care for us and literally like the matrix and the world the real world would suck in such a scenario yes it'd be terrible.
我们喜欢享受快乐，而痛苦则是主要的驱动力。如果你创造了一台能够无限提供快乐的机器，这是不是意味着我们只会待在虚拟现实的环境中，所有事情都被照顾得妥妥当当，像电影《黑客帝国》那样？在这种情况下，现实世界将变得非常糟糕，是的，那真是太可怕了。
I mean the other simpler explanation of the Fermi paradox is that you generate sufficient technology that you can end your species and it's only a matter of time from that point which you know we can have that discussion about nuclear weapons we can have it about AI but does some technology if we stay on that escalator does some technology that we generate ultimately whatever allows you to get off the planet allows you to blow up the planet there you go.
我认为，对费米悖论的另一种更简单的解释是：一旦一个文明发展出足够的技术，它就有可能自我毁灭，从那时起，只是时间的问题。我们可以围绕核武器或人工智能进行讨论。如果我们继续追求更先进的技术，那么开发出的某种技术既能让我们离开这个星球，也可能导致我们摧毁这个星球。
I want to get everyone's closing thoughts and closing remarks and hopefully in your closing remarks you can capture something actionable for the individual that's listening to this now on their commute to work or the single mother the average person who maybe isn't as technologically advanced as many of us at this table but it's trying to navigate through this to figure out how to live a good life over the next 10 20 30 years yeah I think as long as you need I think we live in the most interesting time in human history so for the single mother that's listening for someone who wouldn't be the stereotype of a tech row don't assume that you can't do this stuff it's never been more accessible today within your work you can be an entrepreneur you don't have to take massive risk to go create a business by you know quit your job and go create a business there are countless examples we we have a user who's a product manager at a larger real estate business and he built something that created 10% lift and conversion rates which generated millions and millions of dollars of that business and that person became celebrity at that company and became someone who is lifting everyone else up and teaching them how to use these tools and obviously that that is like a really great for for anyone's career and you're going to get a promotion and your example of building a piece of software for your family for your kids to to improve and to learn more or to be better kids as an example of being entrepreneur in your family so I really want people to break away from this concept of entrepreneurship.
我想听听大家的总结和最后的意见，希望在你们的总结中能提供一些可行的建议，适用于正在上下班途中收听的个人，或者是单亲妈妈，以及那些也许没有我们这一桌人那么精通科技但努力在这个时代中找到生活之道的普通人。无论你想说多久都可以，我认为我们生活在一个人类历史上最有趣的时代。
对于在听的单亲妈妈或那些不符合科技行业刻板印象的人来说，不要以为你无法做到这些。在今天，这些技能比以往任何时候都更容易获得。在你的工作中，你也可以成为一名企业家。你不需要冒很大的风险去创业，比如辞掉工作然后去创业。我们有无数这样的例子，比如有一个用户是大型房地产公司的一名产品经理，他开发了一个能够提高10%转化率的东西，为公司创造了数百万的收入，这个人因此在公司里声名鹊起，成为带动和教导同事使用这些工具的人，显然这对任何人的职业来说都很有帮助，会得到晋升。
还有一个例子是你为家人或孩子开发软件，以帮助他们学习和成长，这也是家庭中创业的一种表现形式。所以我真的希望人们能够打破对创业的固有观念。
Being this is your podcast the diary of a CEO you started this podcast by talking to CEOs I assume right and over time it changed to everyone can be a CEO everyone is this some kind of CEO in their life and so I think that we have on percented access to tools for that vision to actually come to reality well it is obviously a moment of a kind of human face transition something that I believe will be the equal of a discovery of farming or writing or electricity and the darkness that I think is valid in looking at all of the possible outcomes of this scenario is actually potentially part of a different story as well in evolutionary biology we talk about an adaptive landscape in which a niche is represented as a peak and a higher niche a better niche is represented as a higher peak but to get from the lower niche to the higher niche you have to cross through what we call an adaptive valley and there's no guarantee that you make it through the adaptive valley.
由于这是你的播客节目《CEO的日记》，你一开始是通过与CEO对话开始的，对吧？随着时间推移，节目主题转变为每个人都可以成为生活中的CEO。因此，我认为我们有前所未有的机会和工具让这一愿景成为现实。很显然，这是一种人性转变的时刻，我相信其意义堪比农业、文字或电的发现。在考虑这一情景可能的所有结果时，我们感到的阴影实际上也可能是另一个故事的一部分。在进化生物学中，我们谈论一种适应景观，其中一个生态位被表示为一个山峰，而更高的生态位、更好的生态位被表示为更高的山峰。但为了从较低的生态位到达较高的生态位，你必须穿越我们称之为适应谷底的区域，而这并不能保证你能顺利通过适应谷底。
In fact, the drawing that we put on the board I think is overly hopeful because it makes it in two dimensions it looks like you know exactly where to go to climb that next peak and in fact it's more like the peaks are islands and an archipelago that is in fog where you can't figure out what direction that peak is and you have to reason out it's probably that way and you hope not to miss it by a few degrees but in any case that darkness is exactly what you would expect if we were about to discover a better phase for humans and I think we should be very deliberate about it this time I think we should think carefully about how it is that we do not allow the combination of this brand new extremely powerful technology and market forces to turn this into some new kind of enslavement and I don't think it has to be I think the potential here does allow us to refactor just about everything maybe we have finally arrived at the place where mundane work doesn't need to exist anymore and the pursuit of meaning can replace it but that's not going to happen automatically if we don't figure out how to make it happen.
事实上，我认为我们在白板上画的图过于乐观，因为它在二维上看起来仿佛你确切知道该如何攀登下一个高峰。然而，实际上这些高峰更像是雾中的群岛，你无法明确分辨出哪个方向是你要去的峰顶，只能推测大概是那个方向，并希望不要偏差太多。然而，这种模糊不清恰恰是我们即将发现人类更好阶段的预期表现。我认为这次我们应该非常慎重地对待这一点，仔细思考如何防止全新的强大技术和市场力量结合后演变成某种新形式的奴役。我不认为这种情况是必然的，我相信我们有能力重新构建几乎一切。或许我们终于到达了不再需要繁琐工作的阶段，用寻求意义来取而代之。但如果我们不想办法去实现，这一切将不会自动发生。
I hope that we can recognize that the peril of this moment is best utilized if it motivates us to confront that question directly each one of us has two parents four grandparents eight great grandparents 16 32 64 you've got this in like this long line of ancestors who all had to meet each other they all had to survive wars they all had to survive illness and disease everything had to happen for us one each individual all of this this stuff had to happen for us to get here and if we think about all the people in those thousands and thousands of people every single one of them would trade places in a heartbeat if they had the opportunity to be alive at this particular moment they would say that their life was struggle disease that their life was a lot of mundane and meaningless work it was dangerous you know every single one of us has probably got ancestors that were enslaved probably got ancestors that died too young probably got ancestors that worked horrific conditions we all have that.
我希望我们能认识到，这个时刻的危险如果能激励我们直接面对这个问题，将会是最有价值的。每个人都有两个父母、四个祖父母、八个曾祖父母、16个高祖父母、再到32、64个，这样一直延续下去的祖先。他们都必须彼此相遇，必须在战争中生存下来，必须抵御疾病和瘟疫。所有这些都必须发生，才能让我们中的每一个人来到这个世界。如果我们想一想，在成千上万的人中，每一个人如果有机会在这一刻活着，都会毫不犹豫地交换位置。他们会说自己的生活充满斗争与疾病，无数的工作平凡且无意义，充满危险。我们每个人或许都有曾被奴役的祖先，有过早夭折的祖先，还有在极其恶劣条件下工作的祖先。这些历史，我们都有。
And they would all just look at this moment and say wow so are you telling me that you have the ability to solve meaningful problems to come up with adventures to travel the world to pick the brains of anyone on the planet that you want to pick the brains of you can just listen to a podcast you can just watch a video you can talk to an AI like are you telling me that you're alive at this particular moment please make the most of that like do something with that you know you consider our pontificating about society and how society might work but ultimately it all boils down to what you do with this moment and solving meaningful problems being brave having fun making your little dent in the universe you know that's that's what it's all about and I feel like there's an obligation to your ancestors to make the most of the moment.
他们都会看向这一刻，说：“哇，你是在告诉我，你有能力解决有意义的问题，能够策划冒险去环游世界，可以向全球任何人请教，只需听播客、观看视频，就能获取信息，还可以和人工智能交流。你是不是在告诉我，你正生活在这样一个特殊的时刻？请充分利用这一切，做些有意义的事。你知道，我们会考虑和探讨社会运作的方式，但最终一切都归结于你如何利用这一刻。解决有意义的问题、勇敢、享受生活，在这个世界留下你的小印记。这就是生活的意义。我觉得，你的祖先赋予了你充分利用这一时刻的责任。”
Thank you so much to everybody for being here I I've learned a lot and I've developed my thinking which is much the reason why I wanted to bring this one together because I know you all have different experiences different backgrounds and education you're doing different things but together it helps me sort of pass through all of these ideas to figure out where I land and I I ask a lot of questions but I am actually a believer in humans and I was thinking about this the second I got thinking do I am I optimistic about human's ability to navigate this just because I have no other choice because, as you said, the alternative actually isn't what I'm thinking about and so I do have an optimism towards how I think we're going to navigate this in part because we're having these kinds of conversations and we in history haven't always had them in the birth of a new revolution when we think about social media and the implications that had we're playing catch up with the with the downstream consequences.
非常感谢大家来到这里。在这次聚会中，我学到了很多，并拓展了自己的思维，这也是我想要组织这次活动的主要原因之一。因为我知道你们每个人都有不同的经历、背景和教育，你们正在做的事情也各不相同，但正是因为大家的多样性，让我能够理清各种想法，找到属于自己的观点。我问了很多问题，但我是真的相信人类。当我开始思考时，我确实在想：我对人类应对挑战的能力是否乐观？这也许是因为我别无选择，因为正如你所说，没有其他选项比我所想的更好。因此，我对我们如何应对这些挑战持乐观态度，部分原因是我们正在进行这样的对话。在历史上，当社会媒体和其带来的影响诞生时，我们却没有总是进行这样的对话，总是在追赶其带来的后果。
I am hopeful maybe that's the entrepreneur in me I'm excited. maybe that's also the entrepreneur in me but at the same time to many of the points Brett's raised and Amjud's raised in Dan's raised there are serious considerations as we swim from one island to another and because of the speed and scale of this transformation that Brett highlights and you look at the stats of the growth of this technology and how it's spreading like wildfire and how once I tried replete I walked straight out and I told Cosy it immediately I was like Cosy try this and she was on it and she was hooked and then I called my girlfriend in Bali who's the breathwork practitioner and I was like type this into your browser R E P L I T and then she's making these breathwork schedules with all of her clients information ahead of the retreat she's about to do it's spreading like wildfire because we're internet native we were native to this technology so it's not a new technology it's something on top of something that's intuitive to us.
我对此感到乐观，也许这是我内心的企业家精神在作祟。我很兴奋，也许这也是由于企业家的本性。但与此同时，正如Brett、Amjud和Dan所指出的那样，我们在从一个岛屿游向另一个岛屿的过程中需要认真考虑这些问题。Brett强调了这个转型的速度和规模，当你查看这项技术的增长统计数据时，会发现它正在像野火一样迅速传播。有一次，我尝试了Replit，马上告诉Cosy，她一用上便爱不释手。后来我打电话给在巴厘岛的女友，她是一名呼吸疗法从业者，我告诉她在浏览器中输入R E P L I T，然后她开始用这个软件为即将开展的休养活动制定包含所有客户信息的呼吸疗法计划。这个技术像野火般迅速蔓延，因为我们天生就能适应互联网，对我们来说，这并不是全新的技术，而是建立在我们直观理解的基础上的。
So that transition is as Brett describes it from one peak to the other one island to another I think is going to be incredibly destabilizing and I've having interviewed so many leaders in the space from Reid Hoffman who's a fan of LinkedIn to the CEO of Google to Mustafa who I mentioned they don't agree on much but the thing that they all agree on and that Sam Altman agrees on is that the long-term future the long-term way that our society functions is radically different people squabble over the short term they sometimes even squabble over the midterm all the timeline but they all agree that the future is going to look completely different.
为了让这一转变如Brett所描述的一样，从一个高峰到另一个高峰，从一个岛屿到另一个岛屿，我认为这将是极其动荡的。我采访了很多这个领域的领导者，从LinkedIn的创始人Reid Hoffman到Google的CEO，以及我提到过的Mustafa，他们在很多事情上意见不一，但所有人，包括Sam Altman，都同意一点，那就是长期来看，我们社会的运作方式将发生根本性的变化。人们可能在短期和中期的时间线上争论不休，但他们全都同意未来将大不相同。
Amjad thank you for doing what you're doing you're what you we didn't get to spend a lot of time on it today and this is typically what I do here but your story is incredibly inspiring incredibly inspiring from where you came from what you've done what you're building and you are democratizing and creating a level of playing field for entrepreneurs in Bangladesh to Cape Town to San Francisco to be able to turn their ideas into reality and I do think just on the surface that that's such a wonderful thing that you know I was born in Botswana in Africa and that I could have the same access to turn my imagination into something to change my life because of the work that you're doing at Repplet and I highly recommend everybody to go check it out you'll probably won't sleep that night because it's so it's so for something like me it was so addictive to get to be able to do that because it's been the barrier to creation my whole life I've always had to call someone to build something.
Amjad，谢谢你所做的一切。今天我们没能有太多时间深入讨论这件事，而这通常是我在这里需要做的事情。但是你的故事非常鼓舞人心——从你的出身到你所做的一切再到你所创建的事物。你正在为来自孟加拉国到开普敦再到旧金山的创业者们创造一个公平的环境，让他们能够将想法变为现实。我认为，从表面上看，这是件美好的事情。因为你的工作，我这样一个出生在非洲博茨瓦纳的人，现在也能获得同样的机会，将我的想象力变成某种改变我生活的东西。我强烈建议大家去看看Repl.it的工作，你可能那晚都睡不着，因为对我这样的来说，这感觉太让人上瘾了，能够做到这些，因为它一直以来都是我创造的障碍，我总是需要找人来帮我实现。
Dan thank you again so much because you represent the voice of entrepreneurs and you've really become a titan as a thought leader for entrepreneurs in the UK and that in perspective that balance is incredibly important so I really really appreciate you being here as always and you're a huge fan favorite of our show and Brett thank you gazillion times they have a fur being a human lens uncomplicated challenges and you do it with a fearlessness that I think is imperative for us finding the truth in these kind of situations where some of us can run off with optimism and we can be hurtling towards the mouse trap because we love cheese and I think you're an important counter balance and voice in the world at this time.
丹，非常感谢你，因为你代表了企业家的声音，并且已经成为了影响力巨大的英国企业家思想领袖。从这个角度来看，这种平衡极其重要，因此我非常感激你一如既往地参与我们的节目，你也是我们节目的超级受欢迎嘉宾。还有布雷特，无数次谢谢你，因为你通过人性的视角简化了复杂的挑战，并且你以无畏的态度面对这些挑战。我认为在某些情况下，我们因为乐观而可能偏离正轨，甚至被诱惑重重，致使自己处于不利境地。在这个时候，你是一个重要的平衡力量和声音。
So thank all of you for being here I really really appreciate it and we shall see these things live forever say this has always blown my mind a little bit 53% of you that listen to this show regularly haven't yet subscribed to this show
谢谢你们所有人的到来，我真的非常感激。我们会看到这些内容永远被保留下来。让我感到有些意外的是，经常收听我们节目的你们中有53%的人还没有订阅这个节目。
So could I ask you for a favor if you like the show and you like what we do here and you want to support us the free simple way that you can do just that is by hitting the subscribe button and my commitment to you as if you do that then I'll do everything in my power me and my team to make sure that this show is better for you every single week
如果你喜欢这个节目并支持我们的工作，我能请求你一个小忙吗？你可以用一个简单免费的方式支持我们，那就是点击订阅按钮。如果你这样做了，我承诺我和我的团队会尽全力每周都让这个节目变得更好。
We'll listen to your feedback we'll find the guess that you want me to speak to and we'll continue to do what we do thank you so much so
我们会认真听取你的反馈，找到你希望我与之对话的嘉宾，并继续做好我们的工作，非常感谢你。