Markets Weekly May 10, 2025
发布时间 2025-05-10 14:35:50 来源
Hello my friends, today is May 10th and this is markets weekly. So this past week was a pretty event for weekend markets because we finally got Trump's first trade deal and so now we have an idea of what trade deals going forward could look like. And as we speak, the US and China are having their first trade discussions in Switzerland and the outcome of that will likely set the tone for trading next week. So today let's talk about the trade news we had the past week and some likely scenarios for trade discussions with China right now.
你好，我的朋友们，今天是5月10日，欢迎收看《每周市场综述》。过去这一周对市场来说是非常重要的，因为我们终于迎来了特朗普的第一个贸易协议，这让我们对未来的贸易协议有了一个大致的了解。与此同时，美国和中国正在瑞士进行首次贸易谈判，这次谈判的结果可能会影响下周的市场走向。因此，今天我们一起来聊聊过去一周的贸易新闻，以及当前与中国贸易谈判的一些可能情形。
All right, starting with the trade news. So last week in typical showmanship fashion, Trump teased his first trade deal and everyone was wondering who it was with. Turns out it was with the United Kingdom. Now if you take a step back, it's kind of really curious to have any trade disputes with the UK. According to the US's own data, the US actually runs a goods trade surplus with the UK. So from Trump's perspective, they are winning in the relationship and of course the UK and US have a longstanding close relationship.
好的，我们从贸易新闻开始。上周，特朗普以一贯的展现手法宣布了他的第一个贸易协议，大家都在猜测这个协议是和哪个国家签的。结果发现是和英国达成的协议。仔细想想，与英国有任何贸易争端都很奇怪。根据美国自己的数据，美国对英国实际上是贸易顺差。所以从特朗普的角度来看，美国在这段关系中是占上风的，而且英国和美国一直有着密切而长期的关系。
Now the UK has been trying to get a better trade deal with the US for some time ever since Brexit. Now, post Brexit, of course the UK doesn't have as good access to the EU market and would like to have stronger access to the US market, but it seems so this discussions really didn't go anywhere. So it was really, I think many people weren't sure just what a trade deal with the UK would look like, especially since you only had a few weeks to discuss. Now everyone was waiting for the press conference to find out details.
自从脱欧以来，英国一直在努力与美国达成更好的贸易协议。由于脱欧后，英国对欧盟市场的准入不如以前，因此希望能更加强化对美国市场的准入。然而，这些讨论似乎并没有取得实质性进展。许多人对与英国的贸易协议会是什么样子感到不确定，尤其是因为他们只有几周的时间来讨论。大家都在等待新闻发布会，以了解更多细节。
So let's take a look at the press conference. The Prime Minister on the phone and we were great allies in that and it's very unusual that the trade deal comes to and we signed it up on the same day that we had a great victory, the greatest victory of them all. So we are talking more and more about victory day because we were a big part of it and so is the UK and it's just a few moments into that press conference. I could immediately tell by the look on the gentleman's face to Trump's left that this was a trade deal that was not in the UK's favor.
让我们来看看记者会上的情况。总理通过电话联系，我们在其中是很好的盟友。非常罕见的是，贸易协议是在我们取得伟大胜利的同一天签署的。这是所有胜利中最伟大的一次，所以我们越来越多地谈论胜利日，因为我们是其中重要的一部分，而英国也是。在记者会刚开始没多久，我就从特朗普左边那位先生的表情中立刻看出，这项贸易协议对英国不利。
Now that man, he is a UK ambassador to the US and you can tell via space that he just didn't really want to be there and he had no idea what was going on. And moments later when the tear sheet was released, you can kind of see why he was a bit bewildered. Now the trade deal was very obviously in the US's favor. Now what did the UK get out of this? Well at the end of the day, the UK got, I guess, lower tariffs on autos. It would be able to export a large number of autos to the US without having to pay the 25% auto tariffs.
那个人，他是英国驻美国的大使。你从空间中可以看出，他似乎真的不太想在那儿，也不了解发生了什么。就在简报发布后的几分钟，你可以稍微猜测到他为何有些困惑。现在，这份贸易协议显然是对美国有利的。那么英国从中得到了什么呢？最终，英国得到的，我想，是汽车关税降低。英国可以向美国出口大量汽车，而无需支付25%的汽车关税。
Now what kind of autos it's the UK export to the US? You know Jaguars, Bentley's, Land Rover's, so stuff that mainstream Americans do not buy. But you know they got that as a concession. What did the US get? Well the US got more access to the UK markets when it comes to beef and ethanol. And the US asked the UK to buy more stuff from Boeing. And at the end of the day, the US is keeping its 10% tariff on the UK. Now this is very important because later on, Commerce Secretary Lunek will say this. That sectoral tariffs are up for negotiation, but that 10% base rate is not.
现在，英国出口到美国的汽车有哪些类型？像是捷豹、宾利、路虎这些主流美国人不太会购买的品牌。但是，英国把这些作为让步之一。那么美国得到了什么呢？美国在牛肉和乙醇方面获得了更多进入英国市场的机会。此外，美国要求英国多购买波音公司的产品。到最后，美国仍对英国维持10%的关税。这一点非常重要，因为稍后商务部长卢内克会指出，虽然某些领域的关税可以进行谈判，但这10%的基本税率是不可能改变的。
Right. So reciprocal tariffs if you think about it is how open is your economy to our exports, how fair is it to our exports? We're kind of trade deficit to do. And that sets that line. So 10% is the bottom line for that. But as the president said, many of those will be higher. Of course you can bring them down by opening your government, opening your economy to US exports. So it's very clear that the administration's strategy is that there will be a minimum global tariff on everyone of 10%.
好的，简单来说，互惠关税指的是一个国家对我们出口商品的开放程度以及对我们出口商品是否公平。如果我们有贸易逆差，这就是确定关税基准的因素。所以，10%是关税的最低标准。不过正如总统所说，很多情况下，这个比例会更高。当然，你可以通过对美国出口商品开放你的政府和经济来降低这些关税。因此，政府的策略很明确，那就是对每个国家征收至少10%的全球最低关税。
And this is something that Trump has, well, this is something that I've been saying to my subscribers for some time. This is a fundamental change in the global landscape. Before Liberation Day, the US imported about $3 trillion of goods and the volume weighted tariff rate on those was about 3%. So going from say 3% to a minimum 10% tariff is going to have big implications on trade. It could go through consumer prices, it could go through currency, it could go through producer margins. So there's a lot of things that are happening through this.
这方面，特朗普已经提及过，而我也对我的订阅者们说过一段时间了。这是全球格局的一个根本性变化。在"解放日"之前，美国进口了大约3万亿美元的商品，这些商品的加权平均关税率约为3%。因此，从3%升至至少10%的关税将对贸易产生重大影响。这可能会影响到消费者价格、货币汇率或生产商利润率。所以，通过这个变化，有很多事情在发生。
Now if you look at the latest tariff data, focussums data from the US Treasury, you can see that there's been a notable jump in tariff collections in April. And just eyeballing this, my best guess is that this is going to bring in, say, $2 to $300 billion extra in revenue this year, which will help with the deficit provider. Of course, we don't spend all of that on tax cuts. So that this UK trade deal thing is really cementing to the world that this is going to be a new tariff regime.
现在，如果你查看最新的关税数据，特别是来自美国财政部的焦点数据，你会发现4月份关税收入显著增加。根据我的观察，我猜测今年会额外增加2000亿到3000亿美元的收入，这将有助于减少财政赤字。当然，我们不会把所有的这笔收入用于减税。因此，这项与英国的贸易协议确实向世界证明了这是一个新的关税体制。
And this whole 90 day negotiation is just a way to strong arm other countries to give extra goodies to the US for some degree of air vote treatment. Now later on, the FT reported some really interesting news. And that has to do with the China connection with the UK US deal. Now we've been discussing that the US seemed to have a plan that it was trying to build a coalition of partners against China when it comes to trade. Now earlier Mexico had volunteered to put on tariffs on China equivalent to the tariffs of the US puts on China. So basically building this giant far-awalt tariffs against China. That idea seems to have run into problems because countries like Japan were not willing to rupture the trade relationship with China.
这整个90天的谈判实际上是美国施压其他国家，以便获得一些额外好处，以便在一定程度上得到空头承诺的待遇。后来，《金融时报》报道了一些非常有趣的消息，涉及到英国和美国交易中的中国因素。我们一直在讨论，美国似乎有一个计划，试图在贸易问题上建立一个针对中国的合作伙伴联盟。早些时候，墨西哥曾自愿对中国征收相当于美国对中国征收的关税。因此，基本上是建立一个针对中国的巨大关税壁垒。不过，这个想法似乎遇到了问题，因为像日本这样的国家不愿意破坏与中国的贸易关系。
Now it appeared down version of this is appearing in the UK trade talks where the UK now is asked to freeze China out of certain key supply chains like steel. So I think when it comes to defense going forward, the US is trying to keep Chinese components Chinese trade relationships out of its key supply chains and ideally trying to keep that out of the supply chains of certain supply chains of its trade partners as well. So this is an easy discussion to have with the UK which really doesn't have much of a steel and aluminum industry but it might be more difficult to have with other countries. So again, a trade talks with the UK were easy going forward. They're going to be much more difficult and that's what Howard Lognik is suggesting as well.
现在，这种情况似乎在英国的贸易谈判中出现了简化版本，即英国被要求将中国排除在一些关键供应链之外，比如钢铁供应链。因此，我认为在未来的防务方面，美国正试图将中国的组件和贸易关系排除在其关键供应链之外，并且理想情况下也希望将其排除在某些贸易伙伴的供应链之外。对于英国来说，这样的讨论很容易进行，因为英国的钢铁和铝行业并不发达，但与其他国家进行这样的讨论可能会更困难。所以，与英国的贸易谈判一直以来都相对容易，但今后将会变得更加艰难。这也是Howard Lognik所指出的问题。
It seems like he would like to have a trade deal with Asian nation too to have a template now. One of the things that I've been wondering is that whatever deal they have with an Asian country is it going to have a currency component because I think there's a high probability that it could have, especially since a lot of the Asian countries have I think currencies that are relatively cheap against the dollar that really don't make economic sense given many of them are exporting superpowers and I'm not just talking about China or China is something that's totally separate. The market has really cheered all these trade talks. Now Trump has been kind of a master at manipulating this.
他似乎也想和亚洲国家达成一个贸易协议，以用作模板。我很好奇的是，他们与亚洲国家达成的任何协议是否会包含货币方面的内容，因为我觉得这种可能性很大。尤其是因为很多亚洲国家的货币相对美元来说都很便宜，这在经济上并没有太大意义，因为这些国家中很多都是出口强国，我不只是指中国，中国是完全不同的情况。市场对这些贸易谈判的反应非常热烈，现在，特朗普在操控这一切方面可谓是高手。
When I think back to his first term, he would always float out of these trade talks are going well and the market always responded well. Although I think that there is some limited runway to this. It doesn't always work. It's like any other drug. The first shot is the most potent, later on I think you lose potency to this but at the moment it seems like the market participants still like this and my best guess is that this is all very poorly. But in any case we have a first prototype trade deal with the UK going forward we're probably going to get a lot more and at the end of the day it's going to look something like the UK as long as you're not named China.
回想他担任第一任期时，每次他宣布贸易谈判进展顺利，市场总是反应积极。不过，我认为这样的策略有一定的局限性，并不是总有效果。就像任何药物一样，第一次的效果最强，后来效果会减弱。但目前来看，市场参与者似乎还是很喜欢这种消息，我猜测这很可能不会持续太久。不过，无论如何，我们与英国的第一个初步贸易协议已经达成，未来可能会有更多这样的协议。最终，只要不是中国，对其他国家来说，协议看起来可能都会像英国一样。
Now the second thing we want to talk about is ongoing trade talks with China. Now China is different from the rest of the world because the US views China as a strategic competitor and also because China has a massive trade surplus with the rest of the world. Now Trump has been saying for some time, yeah we have talked to China, everything is ongoing, everything is great. But of course we knew reading between the lines and from the Chinese themselves that there are basically no trade discussions. And we know this to be true now because the first trade discussions are happening in Switzerland this weekend, Secretary Becant, US trade representative Jamie Greer are flying over there.
现在我们来谈谈与中国正在进行的贸易谈判。中国与世界其他国家不同，因为美国将中国视为战略竞争对手，而且中国对世界其他国家有巨额贸易顺差。特朗普已经有一段时间在说，我们和中国进行了谈判，一切都在进行中，一切都很好。但实际上，我们从一些细节和中方的信息了解到，实际上基本没有进行贸易谈判。而这一点现在得到了证实，因为首次贸易谈判将在这个周末于瑞士进行，美国贸易代表杰米·格里尔和国务卿贝肯特将飞往那里参加。
And it looks like they're going to talk with high level Chinese officials as well. Now just as I've been telling you guys that we're going to have minimum tariffs of 10% for the rest of the world, I think it's pretty well understood that at the end of the day whatever happens with these trade negotiations the destination is likely going to be say 50 to 60% tariffs on China. So right now we're at 145% that is obviously unsustainable. Someone knows that Trump is even saying that openly. So if you have 145% tariffs on a country you're basically cutting off trade with that country. And that is not yet having significant economic repercussions on the US but if they maintain it obviously it will.
看起来他们也会和中国的高层官员进行会谈。正如我一直告诉你们的，我们将对世界其他国家征收至少10%的关税。我认为可以理解的是，不论这些贸易谈判最终结果如何，对中国的关税可能会达到50%至60%。目前，我们的关税已经达到145%，这显然是无法持续的。有些人甚至表示特朗普公开承认这一点。如果对一个国家征收145%的关税，基本上就是在切断与这个国家的贸易。虽然目前这还没有对美国经济产生重大影响，但如果持续下去，显然会产生影响。
Looking at the economic data you can already see container shipments from China to the US basically plummeting. However, from the Chinese side it looks like that decrease in exports to the US are being made up with additional exports to other countries like the European Union. So the EU is soon going to have their own problem dealing with a flood of cheap Chinese goods going into their shores. It's going to be much more problem for them because they do have a pretty good manufacturing sector especially in Germany. How are they going to compete with all these additional Chinese exports? They are already having trouble competing with the very good and cheap electric cars that the Chinese are manufacturing.
根据经济数据可以看出，从中国到美国的集装箱运输量已经大幅下降。然而，从中国方面看来，对美出口的减少似乎通过增加对其他国家的出口得到了弥补，比如对欧盟的出口。因此，欧盟很快就会面临处理大量廉价中国商品涌入的问题。这对他们来说将是一个更大的问题，因为他们有相当好的制造业，尤其是在德国。面对这些额外的中国出口，他们该如何竞争呢？他们在应对中国制造的质优价廉的电动汽车时已经感到困难。
So but that's a problem for them. Now back to the US side we also see that there are increased transcriptions happening right now. So that is China shipping to a third country and then that third country is shipping to the US. This was a technique they developed during the first trade war specifically through Vietnam. We see that Vietnam imports from China are increasing a lot and experts the US are also increasing a lot. So the businesses are finding ways to try to route goods but again this is just not as this is not something they could keep on doing. So we do need to have some trade relief.
所以，但这对他们来说是个问题。现在回到美国这边，我们也看到现在有更多的转运发生。这种情况是中国先把货物运到第三国，然后再由第三国运到美国。这是在第一次贸易战期间他们通过越南发展的一种策略。我们观察到越南自中国的进口量大幅增加，而越南对美国的出口也显著增加。所以企业正在寻找方法来转运商品。但这并不是一个他们可以一直持续的方法。因此，我们确实需要一些贸易宽松政策。
Now an interesting rinco is that Friday morning from actually tweeted out that he thought an 80% tariff on China would be with sound reasonable. Now 80% obviously is much higher than the 50 to 60% that everyone was expecting. So that suggests that more of a hawkish tilt. He said that it would be up to Secretary Besson but obviously when you're boss is saying this he's just being nice. So that's what he's at least publicly communicating to Scott Besson.
现在，有趣的是，周五早上，rinco 发推文说，他认为对中国征收80%的关税是合理的。显然，这个80%比大家预期的50%到60%要高得多。这表明了更加强硬的立场。他说这将由Besson部长来决定，但显然当你的上司这样说时，他只是在客气。所以至少这是他公开对Scott Besson传达的信息。
Now on one hand this could be more of a hawkish move on the trade front with China which I think would be in line with the administration's approach. On the other hand he could just kind of be moving the goal pulse such that when we ultimately have 50 to 60% tariffs this come out this weekend that would be perceived as dovish and that would be positive for the markets and for sentiment. So I'm not really sure what will happen. The Wall Street Journal is reporting that China is setting their fentanyl guy over there.
现在，一方面这可能是在对华贸易上采取更强硬的措施，我认为这与政府的做法是一致的。另一方面，他可能只是调整了目标，以便当我们最终在本周末推出50%到60%的关税时，这会被视为温和的举动，这对市场和情绪都是积极的。因此，我不太确定会发生什么。《华尔街日报》报道说，中国正在派遣他们的芬太尼负责人过去。
So it seems like the talks will be about include a fentanyl component and that would be a reason for the US to lift their fentanyl related tariffs on China. So I think a good outcome I guess, no I'm not saying, the ideal outcome for the market from this would be for us to end up at 50 to 60% tariffs out of the meeting. Medium baseline outcome is for it to be 80% tariffs as a person suggests and the worst outcome which I don't think is likely but could be is that this meeting occurs and nothing happens.
看起来，这次谈判可能会涉及芬太尼的相关内容，这可能是美国取消对中国芬太尼相关关税的一个理由。我认为一个好的结果，当然我不是说这是最理想的结果，对市场来说是谈判后关税降低到50%到60%。中等的结果可能是按照某人的建议减少到80%。最糟糕的结果，我认为不太可能但也不能排除的，就是会议结束后什么改变都没有发生。
Like tariffs still remain 145% on China. This would be a big problem for the US because I think at this time, well at least in the coming weeks we could expect inventories of businesses to be depleted and at that time we could really really do have some shortages on shelves and higher potentially higher consumer prices or lower corporate margins. The Chinese though of course I think would also like to have some relief on trade.
就像对中国的关税仍然保持在145%。这对美国来说将是一个大问题，因为我认为在这个时候，至少在接下来的几周内，我们可能会看到企业的库存减少。到那时，我们可能真的会在货架上出现一些短缺，同时消费者价格可能更高，或者公司利润率更低。当然，我认为中国也希望在贸易方面获得一些缓解。
It's not in their interest to have this huge 145% trade tariff on them either. They have businesses, they have workers that they want to think about as well. But I think the conventional thinking is that whereas this is hurtful to both economies, China is probably more able to handle pain than the US. So but in any case, no matter what happens out of this meeting, the end result is going to be substantially higher tariffs on China, the US's largest trade partner.
这145%的贸易关税对他们也没有好处。他们也有企业和工人需要考虑。不过，我认为传统观念认为，虽然这对两个经济体都有伤害，但中国可能比美国更能承受这样的痛苦。因此，不管这次会议的结果如何，最终的结果将是美国对其最大的贸易伙伴中国征收更高的关税。
And this all is going to reshape the world. Again, this is a really big regime change that I think some people are beginning to understand but others not yet. It's going to reach shape businesses and it's going to reshape capital flows as well because say that the US is not buying as much from foreign countries. That means that foreigners have less dollars and maybe they don't need to reinvest as many dollars into US assets.
这将重新塑造世界。这是一个非常重大的变革，我认为有些人开始理解，但还没有被所有人觉察到。这不仅会重塑商业模式，还会重新配置资本流动。比如说，美国减少了从外国的采购，这意味着外国人获得美元的数量会减少，可能也不会再需要把那么多美元重新投资到美国资产中。
And so that could have implications for asset prices. And of course ultimately they are policy measures to deal with that as well. So so far let's pay attention to what happens at this weekend. But at the end of the day, no matter what happens, I suspect that any relief rally or something like that is going to have to reckon with the reality that the economic structure of the world is changing.
这可能会对资产价格产生影响。当然，最终会有政策措施来应对这一情况。所以，到目前为止，让我们关注这个周末会发生什么。但是，不管结果如何，我认为任何短暂的市场反弹或类似情况都需要面对这样的现实：世界的经济结构正在发生变化。
And now that's just not going to be positive for asset prices in the US. All right, so that's all I prepared and have a good week and we'll talk next week.
现在，这对美国资产价格来说不会是一个好消息。好的，这就是我准备的全部内容。祝你本周愉快，我们下周再聊。