Markets Weekly May 3, 2025
发布时间 2025-05-03 16:45:40 来源
Hello my friends, today is May 3rd and this is markets weekly. So this past week was really a historic week. The S&P 500 surged every single day and then the week with a 9-day winning streak and from what I read this is something that hasn't happened in decades. And taking a step back, it looks like it wiped away all the liberation day losses. So this all this April, a commotion was basically just the dream. So today let's take a step back and look at how various assets classes have fared over the past month since liberation day. Let's talk about some of the big data points we had the past week. And lastly, let's talk about what I think was the biggest news in markets that is the massive strengthening of the Taiwan dollar.
你好，朋友们，今天是5月3日，这是本周的市场周报。过去这一周真的是历史性的一周。标普500指数连续每一天都在上涨，并以9天的连胜收尾。据我所知，这种情况已经几十年没有发生过了。回顾一下，这似乎抹去了所有"解放日"的损失。因此，整个四月的波动基本上就像是一场梦。今天，让我们退一步，看看自"解放日"以来，各种资产类别在过去一个月里的表现。我们也会讨论一下过去一周的一些重要数据点。最后，我们来说说我认为的市场上最大的新闻，那就是台币的大幅升值。
Okay, starting with price action. So looking at equities this past week, again, tremendously positive week. Many stories out there. Some saying it's retail chasing, some saying it's systemic investors buying, some say that volatility's coming down. So people are covering their hedges. And also, of course, we did have some positive policy developments. Now on the trade front, it seems like there is at least a little bit of movement on the Chinese side expressing some willingness to at least think about speaking with the Trump administration and also talking about potentially some cooperation on the fentanyl front. Again, I view this as extremely, extremely minor. I would be hoping that they would be talking, but now at least the Chinese side is acknowledging that they're thinking about talking.
好的，先从价格走势开始。回顾过去一周的股市，可以说是非常好的一周。有很多不同的看法，一些人认为是散户在追涨，另一些人认为是系统性投资者在买入，还有人说波动性在下降，所以人们在解除对冲。当然，也有一些积极的政策进展。在贸易方面，看起来中方至少在表示出一点意愿，愿意考虑与特朗普政府对话，并且在芬太尼问题上可能进行一些合作。不过，我认为这仍然是非常微小的进展。我希望双方能对话，至少现在中方承认他们在考虑对话。
But anyway, the market really like that. This past week we also had tremendous amounts of big tech earnings. Microsoft and Facebook were loved by the market. We had Microsoft surging by almost 10% the day after on Amazon and Apple, though the market was much more lukewarm, the market actually didn't like Apple. It seemed, but what I thought was really interesting was that in their earnings call, Apple noted that these tariffs are costing them right now about a billion dollars a quarter. And of course, that could change. But you know, billion dollars, it sounds like a lot, but then at the same time, they also increased their share buy backs by 100 billion. So obviously, Apple is making an absurd amount of money. It's a very profitable company. It has a great product. But with all this commotion about tariffs and costs and so forth, it really doesn't seem like it's had a big impact.
无论如何，市场真的很喜欢这一点。在过去的一周里，我们也见证了大量科技巨头的财报。微软和Facebook受到了市场的欢迎。微软在发布财报的第二天股价飙升了近10%。然而，对于亚马逊和苹果，市场反应更加温和，尤其是不太看好苹果。这很有趣，因为苹果在财报电话会议中提到，这些关税每季度使他们损失大约10亿美元。当然，这个数字有可能变化。不过，虽然10亿美元听起来很多，但同时苹果也将股票回购计划增加了1000亿美元。所以显然，苹果正在赚取大量利润，它是一家非常赚钱的公司，拥有出色的产品。因此，尽管有这么多关于关税和成本的讨论，这似乎并没有对苹果造成太大的影响。
From reporting, it sounds like the plan for Apple was to have more iPhone manufacturing in India and have India made iPhones serve the US market, whereas the Chinese made iPhones serve the rest of the world. So it seems like they're just kind of re-shuffling things a bit. What might be a bigger blow to their business model is the recent court ruling the past week, where a judge is giving them problems about how they run their app store. So at the moment, Apple's app store is extremely profitable. They take a 30% cut on transactions there. Now, that's been the subject of lawsuits because many app developers don't like that. Now, the recent lawsuit seems to make it easier for app developers to allow their users to pay off the Apple app store.
从报道来看，苹果计划在印度增加iPhone的生产，并让印度制造的iPhone供应美国市场，而中国制造的iPhone则供应世界其他地区。看起来他们只是在调整一些生产安排。然而，对他们的商业模式来说更大的打击可能是最近一周的法院裁决。一位法官对他们运营应用商店的方式提出了问题。目前，苹果的应用商店非常赚钱，他们从中收取30%的交易费用。因为很多应用开发者对此不满，这一直是诉讼的焦点。而最近的诉讼似乎让应用开发者更容易让用户在苹果应用商店之外进行支付。
So that's going to be subject to appeals and so forth. But if that were to be the case, then you could expect lower revenue from the Apple, from the app store for Apple. But in any case, the market didn't seem to like the Apple earnings that much. But taking it step back, positive developments on the trade front, maybe a whole bunch of these more technical stuff that we mentioned with systemic buyers and so forth. And of course, overall positive, max 7 earnings did boost the market significantly. And so honestly, it seems kind of crazy to me and I have made an adjustment to my market view portfolio available to my subscribers.
这将会受到上诉和其他相关程序的影响。不过，如果真是这样的话，那么你可以预期苹果公司来自应用商店的收入会减少。但无论如何，市场似乎对苹果的盈利数据不是很满意。不过从更广的视角来看，贸易方面有积极的发展，也许还有我们提到的一些系统性买家的技术因素等。当然，总体来看，max 7的强劲业绩确实显著提振了市场。所以老实说，这对我来说有点疯狂，为此我对我提供给订阅者的市场观点组合进行了调整。
Now, looking at other asset classes, say, Treasury yields over the past month, we've really kind of back where we were before Liberation Day. As you recall, in the days after Liberation Day, there was tremendous panic in the bond market. You see market functioning kind of a little bit wobbly in the tenure yield, soaring as high as 4.5%. But right now, you know, you're around 4.2%. Things have really, really calmed down and kind of been in a range over the past few days. The market seems to be pricing in less of a probability of a Fed cut in June due to the positive data that we'll talk about in the next segment.
现在，看看其他资产类别，比如过去一个月的美国国债收益率，我们基本上回到了解放日之前的水平。您可能记得，在解放日之后的几天里，债券市场一度陷入极度恐慌。市场的运作有些不稳定，十年期国债收益率飙升至4.5%。但现在，收益率大约在4.2%左右。过去几天，情况已经明显平稳下来，并维持在一个范围内。由于正面的数据，市场现在似乎认为美联储在六月降息的可能性降低了，我们将在下一个部分对此进行讨论。
However, there are two other asset classes that notably did not retrace their Liberation Day moves. The big, big asset class, of course, is the dollar. Now, the dollar weak and significantly throughout April, now looking at the dollar index, we did rebound a little bit the past week, but really nowhere near to where we were pre-Liberation Day. It possibly be due to some policy moves behind the background, but also many people are thinking that, you know, maybe the US is really not as exceptional as we thought it was, and again, there are some geopolitical considerations as well. And we'll talk a little bit about that in our third segment.
然而，还有两个其他的资产类别显著地没有回到“解放日”之前的水平。其中一个很大的资产类别当然是美元。4月份美元疲软，并且显著走低。虽然上周美元指数稍微反弹了一些，但仍远未达到“解放日”之前的水平。这可能与一些政策操作有关，但也有许多人认为，也许美国并不像我们想象中那么特殊。此外，还有一些地缘政治因素需要考虑。我们将在第三部分中对此进行一些讨论。
Another asset class that is really standing out is oil. Now, oil basically is imploding. It's declining a lot throughout the month. And as we make this recording, there's news that OPEC is scheduling another output hike, which is going to put additional down the pressure on oil. Now, this kind of reminds me to present from speech in January before Davos where he laid out his plan to get inflationed out, and that is to reduce oil prices. He's going to encourage more people in the US to drill, and he's going to ask OPEC to pump more oil.
另一类非常突出的资产是石油。现在，石油基本上正在急剧下降。这个月石油价格大幅下跌。在我们录制这个视频时，有消息称欧佩克计划再次提高产量，这将给石油价格带来进一步的下行压力。这让我想到一个演讲，他在一月份达沃斯论坛前说明了他的计划，即通过降低油价来抑制通货膨胀。他打算鼓励美国更多的人进行钻探，并要求欧佩克增加石油产量。
Now, again, like any other market, oil isn't part determined by policy. And you know, with oil so low, it seems strange for OPEC to continue to increase production. So many are speculating that maybe President Trump is having a role in this, not sure what he promised OPEC, but it seems like production is being increased. Oddly enough, this is actually not good for US drillers who, of course, have a higher break even price than a lot of the Middle Eastern companies. So we'll see what happens there.
现在，就像其他市场一样，石油的价格并不是完全由政策决定的。目前，石油价格这么低，OPEC继续增产似乎有些奇怪。因此，很多人猜测特朗普总统可能在其中扮演了一定角色，不确定他对OPEC做出了什么承诺，但显然产量在增加。有趣的是，这对美国的石油钻探公司不利，因为他们的盈亏平衡点往往比许多中东公司要高。所以我们需要继续观察形势的发展。
So overall, the brishten day is in some very important asset classes, kind of just a dream, but in others, it's something that continues to weigh. So let's see what happens in the coming weeks. Now, President Trump, of course, we're going to focus more on trade talks, but I'm getting the sense that, you know, that's kind of going to be less of a focus going forward and going forward. It's probably going to be more of a focus on the actual economic data, seeing whether or not the US is falling into recession.
整体来看，在一些非常重要的资产类别中，布赖斯滕日（brishten day）基本上只是个梦想，而在其他方面，它则是一个持续存在的负担。那么，让我们看看接下来的几个星期会发生什么。当然，特朗普总统现在更专注于贸易谈判，但我感觉未来这个问题的关注度可能会下降，转而更多地关注实际的经济数据，以观察美国是否会陷入经济衰退。
Now to that end, now let's talk about the data points we got the past week. The past week was a very data rich week. First off, we started with first quarter GDP data, which I think people were prepared for not a good print and indeed it was not a good print. Obviously, we had very slight negative GDP growth that's quarter. However, it's not as a better print as it looks on the surface. Now a lot of things go into GDP prints. One of the things that people were pointing at was that there was a tremendous amount of imports in the first quarter.
现在，为了这个目的，让我们来谈谈我们在过去一周得到的数据点。过去的一周是数据非常丰富的一周。首先，我们从第一季度的GDP数据开始，我想大家已经做好了准备，不会有一个好结果，果然，结果确实不理想。显然，这个季度的GDP增长率略微为负。然而，这个结果并不像表面看起来那么糟糕。GDP数据由很多因素构成。其中一个大家指出的因素是，第一季度的进口量非常大。
Many companies were trying to front-run tariffs and imported a lot of stuff. Now in GDP calculations, imports subtract from growth because that's money that's basically spent not on businesses in the US but on businesses outside of the US. You subtract that from GDP numbers when you're trying to figure out just how much money was spent within the country. However, this is obviously something that's basically transitory. We front-run imports a lot. The first quarter, the second quarter, that's unlikely to be the case.
许多公司都在试图赶在关税之前大量进口货物。在 GDP 计算中，进口会对增长产生负面影响，因为这意味着钱不是花在美国国内企业上，而是花在国外企业。因此，当计算国内究竟花了多少钱时，进口金额会从 GDP 中扣除。然而，这显然是一个暂时的因素。我们确实提前进行了大量进口，但在第一季度和第二季度，这种情况不太可能持续。
Looking at the Atlanta estimate, Atlanta GDP now estimates, it's back to estimating positive growth for GDP the second quarter. There's a very good article by Jason Furman, who is a professor at Harvard, talking about why we shouldn't focus on headline GDP but we should focus on something that he thinks of as core GDP, which is final private sales to private domestic consumers. He thinks of this as a core GDP print because there's not as much impact from transitory factors like inventories and imports.
根据亚特兰大经济增长预估，亚特兰大GDP现值现在预计第二季度GDP会有正增长。哈佛大学教授贾森·弗尔曼撰写了一篇非常好的文章，他谈到我们不应该只关注头条GDP，而应该关注他所认为的核心GDP，即最终私人销售给国内私人消费者的部分。他认为这是一个核心GDP数据，因为这样受库存和进口等暂时性因素的影响较小。
Now when you focus on this, what people think of as a core GDP number, it printed that a pretty healthy 3% clip in the first quarter. So at least heading into liberation day, the economy did seem to be on solid footing. Of course, everything changes after liberation day but heading in, it seemed like we had solid momentum. The other big data prints we got the past week were on the labor market front. We got Joltz data, which tells you the amount of job openings.
现在，当你关注这个被认为是核心GDP的数据时，会发现第一季度它以3%的速度稳健增长。所以至少在解放日之前，经济看起来确实是稳固的。当然，在解放日之后，一切都可能发生变化，但在此之前，我们似乎拥有了强劲的动力。过去一周里，我们还获得了另一重要数据，即劳动力市场的数据。我们得到了JOLTS（职位空缺与劳动力流动调查）的数据，这能告诉我们职位空缺的数量。
Now from the ratio from job openings to workers looking for jobs has come down a lot since it's pandemic era. Highs right now is about one to one. And so the labor market is definitely, definitely softening. But the big, of course, job market data has to do with the non-forms payrolls that was released on Friday. The headline print was higher than expected and the market seemed to cheer that but there were also down revisions from the past month.
现在，职位空缺与求职者的比例自疫情时期以来已经大幅下降。目前的比例大约是一比一。因此，劳动力市场显然正在疲软。 当然，劳动力市场的一个重要数据是周五公布的非农就业数据。虽然公布的数字高于预期并受到市场欢迎，但上个月的数据进行了下调修正。
Now what the market seems to be taking away from this is that the labor market is okay and the economy is not yet in recession. On the inflation front, labor market was pretty encouraging in that wages continue to decelerate. Again, that could suggest that weakening labor market and as we know the labor market is softening. But on the inflation front, that suggests that wages really are not going to be putting upward pressure on inflation going forward.
目前，市场似乎从中得出的结论是，劳动力市场状况良好，经济尚未陷入衰退。关于通胀方面，劳动力市场的表现令人鼓舞，因为工资增长速度在放缓。这可能表明劳动力市场有所减弱，正如我们所知，劳动力市场正在走软。但从通胀角度来看，这意味着未来工资不会对通胀施加上行压力。
What really stuck out to me the past week though is the unemployment claims. Now every week on Thursday we get initial claims, which is new filings for unemployment insurance claims and also continuing claims, which is the stock of unemployment claims. And what we're seeing is that there is a noticeable jump in continuing unemployment claims. So that suggests, I think, again, it's kind of breaking out of a range. That suggests that really the labor market is notably softening. People are having more and more trouble finding new jobs and at the same time the number of new jobs created each month is trending lower.
过去一周真正让我印象深刻的是失业申请数据。每周四我们都会看到初次失业申请的数据，也就是新的失业保险申请，还有持续申请的数据，也就是正在领取失业救济的人数。我们注意到持续失业申请的数量明显增加。这表明劳动力市场确实在显著疲软。人们越来越难找到新工作，同时每月创造的新工作岗位数量也在减少。
So again, all this stuff is just stuff a few weeks from Liberation Day and as we know many things have happened since there's been big changes in consumer sentiment. Businesses seem to be at least adopting a weight in se attitude. So it's very likely in my view that we'll see continuing weakening on the labor market front. And the last thing that I want to talk about is what I found the most interesting thing the past week, that is the tremendous appreciation of the Taiwan dollar.
再说一遍，所有这些事情都是在解放日几周前发生的变化。正如我们所知，自那时以来，消费者的情绪发生了很大变化。企业似乎至少采取了观望态度。所以我认为，劳动力市场可能会持续走弱。最后，我想谈谈过去一周我觉得最有趣的事情，那就是新台币的大幅升值。
Now for those of you who don't know, Taiwan is an island off the coast of China famed for being home to Taiwan semiconductors, which is of course the world's pre-eminent manufacture of high-end chips. Now if you look at this graph of the Taiwan dollar against the US dollar, you'll notice that this is a pretty stable exchange rate. It doesn't move a lot. However, the past week, basically out of the blue, it appreciated by a mine-boggling 3% in a day. And that's just not something that is supposed to happen.
对那些不了解的人来说，台湾是一个位于中国海岸附近的岛屿，以其台湾半导体闻名于世，而台湾半导体是一家全球领先的高端芯片制造商。如果你看看这张关于台币对美元的汇率图表，你会注意到这个汇率相当稳定，不怎么波动。然而，在过去一周内，这一汇率几乎毫无预兆地在一天内升值了惊人的3%。这种情况是不太常见的。
Taiwan does have a folding exchange rate, but it is also managed by the central bank, which in theory shouldn't have allowed this to happen. Now there is an official statement from the central bank stating that this massive appreciation was not due to some kind of currency accord that market participants are speculating, but was due to massive inflows by foreign investors. Now of course, this is an official statement. Sometimes these are true, sometimes these are not.
台湾确实存在一个浮动汇率，但它也受到中央银行的管理，理论上不应该允许这种情况发生。现在，中央银行发布了一份官方声明，表示这次大幅升值不是由于市场参与者猜测的某种汇率协议，而是由于外国投资者的大量资金流入。当然，这是一个官方声明，有时候这些声明是真实的，有时候则不然。
And just as Jay Powell is not part of trade negotiations, my guess is that the governor of the central bank of Taiwan is also not part of trade negotiations, but in any case, I don't know what happened. And that's something that I will ponder upon in my weekly this week because I think it's also connected to what could happen in other countries throughout East Asia.
正如杰伊·鲍威尔不是贸易谈判的一部分，我猜测台湾中央银行行长也不是贸易谈判的一部分。不过无论如何，我不知道发生了什么。这是我将在本周每周思考中探讨的问题，因为我认为这也与东亚其他国家可能发生的事情有关。
Now in thinking more about the Taiwan currency, I think it's helpful to have a little bit more background. Now there's this very good piece in the financial times by Brat Setser and Joshua Younger on farm flows into Taiwan. So at a high level, Taiwan runs a very, very high current account surplus. That means that every year tons of money is coming into the country as the country sends goods, get semiconductors out, get the world really likes the chips made by a Taiwan semiconductor.
在进一步思考台湾货币问题时，我觉得了解一些背景知识是很有帮助的。最近，《金融时报》上由布拉特·塞特瑟和约书亚·杨格撰写了一篇关于资金流入台湾的优秀文章。总体来看，台湾有非常高的经常账户盈余。这意味着每年都有大量资金流入这个国家，因为台湾向世界出口商品，尤其是大量出口半导体产品。全球对台湾半导体公司制造的芯片非常感兴趣。
Now the over 10% of current accounts surplus Taiwan has is just really extraordinary. Compared to peer countries like South Korea and Japan, you can see that it's really in a league of its own. Now in theory, when you run a very hard current account surplus like Taiwan does, you would expect your currency to appreciate. After all, all these local businesses earning all these dollars, but of course they're based in Taiwan. So they want to sell those dollars and buy local currency to pay workers and you know, buy real estate or whatever.
台湾目前的经常账户顺差超过10%，这实在是相当惊人。与韩国和日本等同类国家相比，台湾的表现可以说是独树一帜。从理论上讲，当一个国家像台湾这样有很大的经常账户顺差时，通常会预计该国的货币会升值。毕竟，所有这些当地企业在赚取美元后，都会希望将这些美元换回本地货币，用来支付员工工资、购买房地产等。
But as we've shown before, the Taiwan dollar really hasn't appreciated much against the dollar over the past many years. So part of the reason it seems to be is that those dollars just aren't being translated into a Taiwan dollars, but are reinvested into foreign currency assets. So we do see that the Taiwan Central Bank has had a rising farm reserves, again a very large amount of farm reserves.
但是正如我们之前所指出的，近年来新台币相对美元并没有大幅升值。原因之一似乎是这些美元并没有被兑换成新台币，而是被再投资到外币资产中。因此，我们看到台湾中央银行的外汇储备在增加，储备量非常庞大。
So that's basically as the dollars come in, the business sells the US dollars to the Central Bank for Taiwan dollars and the Central Bank then has a big war chest of farm reserves. But what we've seen happen in recent years is that instead of those dollars going into the Central Bank, what's being done is that they are basically ultimately, again, facilitated by transactions with the marketing with the Central Bank, ending up in the on the balance sheets of the life insurers in Taiwan and reinvested in dollar assets like agency mortgage back securities.
基本上，随着美元的流入，公司将这些美元卖给中央银行换取台币，而中央银行也因此积累了大量的外汇储备。但近年来我们看到的情况是，这些美元没有直接进入中央银行。相反，通过与中央银行的交易，这些美元最终流入台湾寿险公司的资产负债表，并重新投资于美元资产，如机构抵押贷款支持证券。
So the current account surplus is not translating into a huge upward move in the Taiwan dollar because the dollars are basically saying as dollars and being reinvested into dollar assets. So a life insurance basically has a business model where policyholders pay monthly premiums to the company and the company that manages those premiums by investing them in the markets, growing them and then having enough money to pay the policy order when something happens.
因此，经常账户盈余并没有转化为台币的显著升值，因为这些美元基本上保持为美元，并被再投资于美元资产中。因此，人寿保险公司的商业模式基本上是：投保人每月向公司支付保费，然后公司通过将这些保费投资到市场中来管理这些资金，使其增长，从而在发生保险事故时有足够的钱支付给投保人。
So as you can see from this chart, the farm bond holdings of these life insurance companies have just absolutely exploited. And together with the farm reserves, Taiwan is basically a bond super power with almost $1.5 trillion worth of farm currency bonds. And what we learned from this reporting is that a lot of this is basically not currency hedged because the life insurers and many other businesses just assume that the Central Bank is going to make sure that the currency doesn't go crazy, but the currency has gone crazy.
从这张图表中可以看到，这些人寿保险公司持有的农场债券数量激增。再加上农场的储备，台湾实际上成为了一个债券超级大国，总计持有近1.5万亿美元的农场货币债券。我们从这次报告中了解到，大部分债券实际上没有进行货币对冲，因为人寿保险公司和许多其他企业认为中央银行会确保货币汇率的稳定。然而，货币汇率已经出现了大幅波动。
And so if you are, let's say, a Taiwan life insurer sitting one with hundreds of billions and dollars of foreign currency bonds and the Taiwan dollar strengthens, then immediately you're having some losses in local currency terms. So it's an interesting question that's happening over there. So that doesn't mean that anything is blowing up or anything like that, but it is just some interesting context to keep in mind as we continue to see these big moves and currencies happen throughout the world.
如果你是一家台湾的寿险公司，持有数千亿美元的外币债券，然后新台币升值，那么在当地货币上，你会立即面临一些损失。所以这在那边是一个有趣的问题。这并不意味着会发生什么重大事故或类似情况，只是当我们继续观察全球范围内这些大规模货币变动时，需要记住的一些有趣背景。
Because as we've talked about before, the global trade order is shifting and the flip side to that is the global capital flows system. So all these things that we've seen in the past, we have these massive accumulations of farm reserves by the Central, Foreign Central Banks and also by life insurers, not just in Taiwan, but in say Japan as well, all these, they could have meaningful impacts on them.
因为正如我们之前讨论过的，全球贸易秩序正在发生变化，与此同时，全球资本流动系统也在变化。因此，以往我们看到的那些现象，比如中央银行和外国中央银行以及寿险公司（不仅在台湾，也在日本等地）大量积累外汇储备，这些都会受到显著的影响。
Okay, so that's all I've prepared for today. I think again, next week is probably going to be an exciting week as well. So next week of course is a Fed meeting gosh, I'm not even sure the Fed still matters anymore, but as usual, I will be back to get an FOMC debrief. So I'll talk to you guys then.
好的，这就是我今天准备的全部内容。我觉得下周可能也会是激动人心的一周。下周当然会有美联储会议，不过天啊，我都不确定美联储是不是还那么重要了。不过像往常一样，我会回来为大家做一次联邦公开市场委员会会议的简报。到时候我们再聊。