Markets Weekly April 26, 2025
发布时间 2025-04-26 15:21:24 来源
Hello my friends, today is April 26th and this is markets weekly. So this past week we had a really strong rally in the S&P 500, still below the 50 day moving average but basically we went straight up for the past few days, looking across asset classes. We also see that the bond market will be haped 10 year yield down to about 4.2 something and also we see go down a bit. So overall it looks kind of like a mean reversion trade. So this seems to be in part driven to changes or at least anticipated changes in policy. So today let's talk about the anticipated changes in monetary and fiscal policy and also some of the preliminary impacts of tariffs we're seeing on the real economy.
你好，我的朋友们，今天是4月26日，欢迎收看《市场每周观察》。在过去的一周里，标普500指数经历了一次强劲的上涨，虽然仍然低于50日均线，但基本上在过去几天里直线上升。纵观各类资产，债券市场的10年期收益率下降到了大约4.2%左右，我们也看到其他市场略有下降。因此，总体来看，这种情况有点像是均值回归的交易。这似乎部分是由于政策的变化或至少是预期的政策变化所推动的。所以今天我们来谈谈对货币政策和财政政策变化的预期，以及我们在实体经济中看到的一些关税初步影响。
Alright, let's start first with monetary policy. So last week we were talking about how Trump could potentially fire Jay Powell after all he did very memorably say this. And I'm not happy with him. I let him know it and if I want him out he'll be out of there real fast believe me. And over the weekend we had reporting the suggests that the Trump team really was studying ways to get rid of JP. Now the market did not like that at all and on Monday we had a pretty big sell off. The day after when asked about firing JP Trump gave this answer. You have no intention to fire Trump out because here. I'm not going to ask a few days ago said that you and people in lives were studying this idea possibly in the course of time.
好的，让我们先从货币政策开始。所以上周我们谈到特朗普如何可能解雇杰伊·鲍威尔，毕竟他非常清晰地表示过这一点。他说：“我对他不满意，我已经让他知道了，如果我想让他走，他会很快被赶走，相信我。” 周末有报道提到，特朗普团队确实在研究如何摆脱鲍威尔。然而，市场对此非常不满，星期一出现了大规模抛售。第二天，有人问特朗普是否会解雇鲍威尔时，特朗普回答说：“我没有让他走的打算。” 因为几天前就有人说你和圈内人士在研究这个想法。
You have any plans on you? Never did the press runs away with things. No, I have no intention of firing him. So basically you know, Jerome Powell never heard of him fired him. Nah, come on. That's never said that. So he walked it back completely. Now behind the scenes the Wall Street Journal is reporting that Secretary of Treasury Scott Bessend who was a former hedge fund manager and Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnik who used to run an investment bank. Both I gave the president advice that you know this is not a good idea and seems that the president has accepted this. So for the moment, Jerome Powell is going to be safe as Fed chair at least until his term expires next May.
你有什么计划吗？媒体从来没有夸大其词。不，我无意解雇他。基本上，你知道的，杰罗姆·鲍威尔从未听说他被解雇。没有，拜托，从来没说过那样的话。所以他完全收回了这件事。现在，《华尔街日报》报道说，财政部长斯科特·贝森德（曾是对冲基金经理）和商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克（曾经营一家投资银行）都向总统建议，这样做不太好，总统似乎接受了这个建议。所以，目前杰罗姆·鲍威尔作为美联储主席是安全的，至少会安然无恙地履行到明年五月其任期结束。
So for the moment, no one has to worry about the loss of U.S. monetary policy independence. Everyone can worry about that next year. Now on that topic, Kevin Walsh who was viewed as the favorite to be Trump's new Fed chair was also out giving speeches the past week, reminding everyone just how big of a hawk he is. So I don't know what's going to happen there. So we'll find out next year. This past week we also had a pretty interesting speech from Governor Waller who over the past few years has been pretty influential on monetary policy on his views of tariffs.
目前，大家不用担心美国货币政策独立性会受到影响。这个问题可以留到明年再考虑。关于这个话题，最近一周被视为特朗普新美联储主席热门人选的凯文·沃尔什发表了一些演讲，提醒大家他是个典型的鹰派，所以我也不太确定接下来会发生什么。我们明年再看。这周我们也听到了来自沃勒州长的一场相当有趣的演讲。近年来，他在货币政策方面相当有影响力，这次分享了他对关税的看法。
Now we heard from JP a little while back and JP was really worried about tariffs having an impact on inflation expectations. Whereas if inflation expectations were unencored, you know that could really tie the Fed's hands. So it definitely wasn't a dovish speech. We also had data from the University of Michigan in the past week on consumer inflation expectations. Again, this is only one survey, but it does suggest that inflation expectations for consumers are rising, especially among Democrats who right now expect inflation on a one year horizon to be as high as 8%. So some people are very, very concerned about inflation.
我们不久前听到了JP的意见，他非常担心关税会影响通胀预期。如果通胀预期失去锚定，可能真的会限制美联储的手脚。所以这绝对不是一个鸽派的讲话。上周，我们还看到密歇根大学关于消费者通胀预期的数据。虽然这只是一个调查，但它显示出消费者的通胀预期在上升，尤其是在民主党人中，他们目前预计一年后通胀率可能高达8%。所以有些人确实非常担心通胀。
Now Governor Waller was actually pretty dovish in his speech. Again, tariffs supposedly could potentially raise inflation and also lower growth. But Governor Waller said this. See I'm willing to look through whatever the tariff price effects are. And I've said that. So for me then, I'm not going to overreact to any increase in inflation that I think is a tribute to the tariffs. But if I see a significant drop in the labor market, then the employment side of the mandate I think is important that we step in and we would have to start. I said this last week in my speech, you know I would expect more rate cuts and sooner.
现在，沃勒州长在他的演讲中表现得相当温和。他再次提到，关税可能会提高通货膨胀，也可能降低经济增长。但沃勒州长表示，我愿意忽略关税对价格的影响，我之前也说过。所以，对我来说，我不会对因关税导致的任何通胀增加反应过度。但如果我看到劳动力市场出现大幅下滑，那么在就业这一方面，我们就必须采取措施。正如我上周在演讲中提到的，我预计降息会更频繁、来得更快。
Once I start seeing some serious deterioration in the labor market. So basically he is adamant in his view that the price impact from tariffs are going to be transitory. So remember, inflation is the rate of changes in prices. So right now the feds inflation target is 2%. That means let's say a 2% increase in prices per year. If we have a big tariffs, that means that in year one, we could have a sudden rise in a price level. But that doesn't mean that that one time increase is going to continue to the same extent every year after because I mean tariffs are not going to continue to rise.
一旦我开始看到劳动力市场出现严重恶化。因此，基本上他坚决认为关税对价格的影响只是暂时的。请记住，通货膨胀是价格变化的速率。目前，美联储的通胀目标是2%。这意味着每年价格上涨2%。如果实施大规模关税，这可能导致第一年价格水平突然上升。但这并不意味着这种一次性增长会在之后的每一年继续保持相同的幅度，因为关税不会持续上涨。
At least you're not expected to continue to rise every year. So he thinks that yes, tariffs could potentially cause prices to jump this year. But because it's a one time change in the price level rather than a change in the rate of change. So change in inflation. He's willing to say that that's transitory and not react to that. What would really get him the cut rates though is a rise in the unemployment rate. He's concerned about growth. Tarrows could be very disruptive to the economy, lead to layoffs and that could that in his mind would lead to fed will for him to advocate for more rate cuts.
至少你不必期望每年的增长都会持续下去。因此，他认为关税可能确实会导致今年的价格上涨。但因为这是一种价格水平的单次变动，而不是变动速率的变化，所以从通胀角度看，他认为这是暂时的，不会因此做出反应。然而，真正会让他考虑降息的原因是失业率的上升。他对经济增长感到担忧。关税可能会对经济产生很大的破坏，导致裁员，这在他看来，将促使美联储降息。
At the moment the market is pricing in basically a very, very small chance of a cut in May. But a notable potential for a cut in June. I guess we'll just have to look at the data to see how things react. Now looking at the unemployment data again, we get weekly unemployment claims. They really can really see any deterioration in the labor market. We hear a lot of anecdotes where companies for example Intel laying off 20% of their workforce the past week. But we just don't see that in the unemployment claims data. Looking at this data, it looks like the looks pretty steady actually.
目前市场基本上认为五月份降息的可能性非常小。但是对六月降息有明显的预期。我想我们只能看看数据，看看情况如何变化。现在再看失业数据，我们每周都会收到失业申请数据。从中很难看到劳动市场的恶化。我们听到很多公司裁员的例子，比如英特尔上周裁掉了20%的员工。但在失业申请数据中，我们并没有看到这样的情况。根据这些数据，情况实际上看起来相当稳定。
So next week we're going to get the non-form payrolls and maybe we'll see some deterioration there or maybe we'll have to wait a few more months before it finally shows up. Again, many people are expecting due to doled cuts, due to all these anecdotal reports of layoffs. Now, eventually we're going to see slow job growth, a spike in the unemployment rate. But right now there's just no evidence of that. When that happens, if it happens, I think the expectation would be the fed would become more aggressive in their cuts.
所以下周我们将看到非农就业数据，也许会看到数据变差，也可能需要再等几个月才会显示出来。很多人预计随着多个公司裁员的消息，这个情况最终会发生。最终，我们可能会看到就业增长放缓、失业率上升。但目前还没有证据显示这种情况。如果这种情况发生，我认为大家会预期美联储在降息方面会采取更激进的措施。
So on the second policy change we've got is of course changes in trade policy, or at least anticipated changes in trade policy. Now remember during Liberation Day, President Trump put huge tariffs on China and big tariffs on the rest of the world, at comically large, really. Now the market reacted very poorly to this, especially the bottom market and I'm sure there was a flood of calls from corporate CEOs and even small business owners on this topic. So this led Trump to pause for 90 days tariffs on the rest of the world, but he kept the very large tariffs on China.
关于第二项政策变动，我们看到的是贸易政策的变化，或者至少是预期中的贸易政策变化。还记得在解放日的时候，特朗普总统对中国设置了很高的关税，对世界其他国家也实行了大规模的关税，确实是非常夸张的。市场对此反应非常不好，尤其是债券市场，我相信许多企业的首席执行官甚至小企业主都因为这个问题打电话表示关切。这导致特朗普决定对世界其他国家的关税暂停90天，不过他仍然对中国保留了这些非常高的关税。
So that 90 day reprieve on the rest of the world really did, I think, come things down a bit and has led to a flurry of trade negotiations. The current plan seems to be that we're just going to have rolling negotiations for the next few weeks and see what happens. Now usually historically trade deals actually take months, if not years, to finalize. So I think people who study trade really are skeptical as to what could happen in these 90 days and I'm not really sure what the administration expects.
那90天的缓冲期确实让全球形势有所缓和，并带来了大量的贸易谈判。目前的计划似乎是我们将在接下来的几周内进行持续的谈判，看看会发生什么。然而，通常贸易协议的达成往往需要几个月，甚至几年的时间。因此，我认为那些研究贸易的人对于这90天内会出现什么成果持怀疑态度，我也不太确定政府期待达成什么。
Then again, Trump continues to talk up the potential for trade deals. But the really good news in trade the past week was a potential for Trump to lower the big tariffs he has on China, which I believe are around 145% and that is comically high, right? That's basically decoupling from China. Now we had reports earlier in the week that Secretary Besan gave talk to private talk to some investors saying that yeah, these high tariffs are unsustainable and we're going to back them down when that leaked out.
不过，特朗普仍在积极宣传贸易协议的潜力。然而，上周贸易方面的真正好消息是特朗普可能会降低他对中国征收的高额关税，我估计这些关税大约是145%，这简直惊人地高，对吧？这基本上就是与中国脱钩。本周早些时候有报道称，贝桑部长在与一些投资者私下谈话时表示，这些高额关税是不可持续的，我们打算降低这些关税，当这一消息泄露出来后，引起了广泛关注。
The market really liked that. And later on, it seems like Trump in the press conference, it did seem to confirm something to that extent saying that we would have a deal with China when we're another. If they talk, that's great. If not, we're just kind of set tariffs at a certain level and basically do this, you know, laterally, with some reports suggesting that this is about maybe 50% tariffs. So going down to 150, 45% tariffs to 50, now that's a move that made the market happy. But at the end of the day, that's still pretty high, right? Definitely much higher than before.
市场对此非常满意。之后，在记者会上，特朗普似乎确认了一些相关的信息，他表示无论如何我们都会和中国达成协议。如果他们谈判，那太好了；如果不谈，就维持关税在某一水平，基本上单方面执行。有报道称关税可能升到50%。因此，从原来的45%提高到大约50%，这让市场感到高兴。但最后，这个关税水平还是相当高的，对吧？肯定比以前高得多。
Now we also had an interesting speech from Secretary Besan this past week in Washington where he kind of sketched out where he views his ideal trade deal would be. He said this. There is an opportunity for a big deal here that the US is looking to rebalance to more manufacturing. The identity of that would be less consumption. If China is serious on less dependence on export-led manufacturing growth and a rebalancing toward a domestic economy, I think they use the term dual circulation. Well, it's right now it's really singular circulation. And if they want to rebalance, let's do it together. This is an incredible opportunity. I think if Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio were to write something, he could call it a beautiful rebalancing.
上周在华盛顿，贝桑秘书长发表了一次有趣的演讲，他描绘了自己理想中的贸易协议。他提到，美国有机会达成一个重大协议，旨在重新平衡以更多制造业为主的经济结构，而这意味着减少消费。如果中国真心想减少对出口导向型制造业增长的依赖，转向以国内经济为重心的调整，我认为他们称之为“双循环”。目前，他们实际上主要是“单循环”。如果中国真的想进行再平衡，我们应该一起努力。这是一个极好的机会。我想如果桥水基金的创始人瑞·达利欧来撰文，他可能会把这种现象称为“美丽的再平衡”。
So basically, Secretary Besan is saying that, you know, looking out, zooming out in the world, China has a tremendous, tremendous, good trade surplus. They're selling too much to the world. And their own government knows that's kind of a problem and would like to transition to bring up more balance economy. Now the US, we have the opposite problem. Or people are buying too much stuff from abroad. We have a tremendous, good trade deficit. And we want to buy less from abroad and produce more at home. So we want to balance. And you know, we could work together to get this happen, to make this happen. So that's his ideal version of a trade deal. So I don't know if that's going to happen.
所以，总的来说，贝桑部长的意思是，从全球视角来看，中国的贸易顺差非常巨大，他们向全世界出售了太多产品。中国政府也意识到这是一个问题，希望能够向更加平衡的经济转型。而美国则面临相反的问题，就是人们从国外购买了太多的东西，我们有一个非常大的贸易逆差。我们希望能减少从国外的购买，并在国内生产更多。因此，我们想要达到平衡。你知道，我们可以合作来实现这一目标，这就是他理想中的贸易协议。所以我不知道这是否会实现。
From all accounts, it seems like trade negotiations with China are not going very well. Now President Trump is telling everyone that he's talking, they're talking with China all the time. But curiously, the Chinese embassy is telling everyone that, you know, there are really no talks and please don't say these confusing things. So it's kind of a fog of war right now. So this week, I'm going to write about why that, you know, it looks like this is not going well. And the lows in the market are not yet in at the moment. But all these potential changes in policy, of course, represent, I guess a walk back.
根据各种说法，似乎与中国的贸易谈判进展不顺利。现在，特朗普总统告诉大家他一直在和中国谈判，但奇怪的是，中国大使馆却表示实际上并没有谈判，并希望大家不要散播这些令人困惑的消息。所以目前情况有些扑朔迷离。本周，我将写一篇文章，讨论为什么看来谈判进展不佳。市场的低谷尚未到来，而所有这些潜在的政策变化当然可能意味着某种程度的退步。
And it's leading to some mean reversion in the markets. So we got a very strong rally in stocks. One market is calming down and gold, which was trading, of course, in part due to fears of all this policy risk also came down quite a bit. And how far this relief rally can go, who knows, these things can go for some time. But it seems like the fundamental problem really hasn't been solved yet. Now we had a liberation day a month ago, well, not even a month ago, a few weeks ago. And now we see some of the real impacts on the economy.
这导致市场出现了一些均值回归。因此，股票市场出现了强劲的反弹。一个市场正在平静下来，而黄金价格也因对各种政策风险的担忧而有所下降。那么这种市场反弹能持续多久呢？谁也无法预料，这种情况可能会持续一段时间。但基本问题似乎尚未真正解决。大约一个月前，我们经历了一次解放日，实际上不到一个月，只是几周前。现在我们开始看到它对经济的一些实际影响。
So Craig Fuller, who is an expert as a company that studies logistics is highlighting that, you know, container volume shipments from China are declining significantly. So when you have, you know, 140, some percent tariffs on China, obviously that's going to impact how much you want to buy from China. And it seems like that's leading to a lot of people to cancel imports from China. And so that's leading to a real drop in transportation from China to the US. So the way these things work, it takes these things we see in the shelves are something that's been ordered months ago. So it takes time for what happened on the Russian day to eventually reverberate to what we see in our day to day lives.
因此，克雷格·富勒（Craig Fuller），一位研究物流行业的专家指出，中国的集装箱运输量正在显著下降。当对中国征收超过140%的关税时，这显然会影响从中国购买商品的意愿。这似乎导致了很多人取消从中国的进口订单，因此从中国到美国的运输量大幅下降。因为商品上架需要时间，所以我们现在在货架上看到的商品，实际上是几个月前订购的。因此，俄罗斯事件的影响需要一段时间才会反映到我们的日常生活中。
So given that there's been this very, very sharp drop in shipments from China, eventually I think the expectation is that in the coming weeks, maybe June, maybe July, we could actually be see a notable drop in and stuff from China in our store. So that could potentially have some economic impact. Whereas you go to a store, maybe what you want is not not available there. A little bit like COVID, but remember, it's only between China and the US, everything else seems to be okay. The 10 percent tariffs the US has on other people seem to be manageable.
鉴于来自中国的货物运输量急剧下降，我认为大家都预期在接下来的几周，也许是六月，也许是七月，我们可能会在商店里看到来自中国的商品显著减少。这可能会对经济产生一定影响。去商店时，你可能会发现自己想要的东西没有货。这有点像疫情期间的状况，但请记住，这种情况仅限于中国和美国之间，其他地方看起来还好。美国对其他国家征收的10%关税似乎还是可以承受的。
Now, given a wallet mentioned that anecdotally, it seems like what the companies are doing is say the supplier would shoulder a third of the cost, the importer, a third of the cost, maybe a third of the cost gets passed on to the consumer. Now Anna Wong, who's cheap economist at Bloomberg, gave a pretty interesting podcast on ad lots suggesting that, you know, based on what she's seeing so far, the bulk of the import price, bulk of the tariffs are being borne on the US side.
现在，根据一个钱包提到的例子，似乎公司通常的做法是让供应商承担三分之一的成本，进口商承担三分之一的成本，剩下的三分之一可能转嫁给消费者。Anna Wong，彭博社的首席经济学家，在一档很有趣的播客节目中指出，根据她目前的观察，大部分的进口价格和关税主要由美国方面承担。
So there is no, the exporter is not reducing their prices. However, what seems to be happening is that the importer is eating the cost by lorning. Marginz through lower margins rather than passing it on to the consumer. Now recall, this is basically what happened in 2018, 2019 during the first round of the Trump trade war, the importers, the distributors, they basically had to suffer lower margins. Now, if you look at a graph of corporate margins over the past few years, you notice that they've really shot up a lot.
所以，没有迹象表明出口商在降低他们的价格。然而，似乎正在发生的是，进口商正在通过降低利润率来承担这些成本，而不是将其转嫁给消费者。回想一下，这基本上就是2018年和2019年第一轮特朗普贸易战期间发生的情况，当时进口商和分销商基本上不得不承受较低的利润率。现在，如果你查看过去几年公司的利润率图表，会注意到它们确实大幅上涨了。
So it looks like they do have some margin to burn. If that's the case, so the impact going forward would be mostly in corporate profits. Now, Wong are doing some investor conferences, also seem to suggest this, whereas they seem to suggest that they wouldn't be able to pass costs to the consumer, but instead would be able to want to take advantage of this situation and actually grab for market share. So it seems like they're going to sacrifice at least this big company is going to sacrifice market share of profits for market share.
看起来他们确实有一些利润空间可以消耗。如果是这样的话，未来的影响主要会体现在企业利润上。Wong正在参加一些投资者会议，这也似乎表明这一点。会议上他们似乎表示，不能把成本转嫁给消费者，而是希望利用这种情况，实际上争取到更多的市场份额。所以，看起来至少这家大公司打算牺牲部分利润来争夺市场份额。
Now, looking at earnings, of course, the big home builder, PULTI is suggesting that these tariffs are going to raise home prices, but on average, about 1%. So that does seem to be an impact on price, but it also doesn't seem to be tremendously high. We'll have to see what happens going forward. So at the moment, it does seem like there's going to be an impact on prices, but it looks like it's going to be OK.
现在，来看一下收益问题。大型住宅建筑商PULTI表示，这些关税将导致房价上升，平均大约提高1%。这确实对价格有一定影响，但似乎影响并不太大。我们需要观察未来的发展。目前来看，价格确实会受到影响，但似乎情况还可以。
Now in other earnings, it seems like the uncertainty and I guess the downturn in the stock market is having an impact on things that are more, I guess, consumer discretionary like travel. So that's something you do when you, not because you have to, but because you have some extra money and maybe you have to have a good time.
在其他收益方面，现在看来不确定性带来的影响，以及股市的低迷，正在影响一些更偏向于可自由支配的消费领域，如旅游业。这类消费指的是那些当你有多余的钱并且想要享受生活时才会进行的活动，而不是出于必要去做的事情。
Now, airlines and war kind of a mixed bag, it seems like that there is some suggestion that there's going to be less discretionary air travel. And so that's this terrible seems to be impacting them as well. So we're still early. We've only been a few weeks through the ration day.
现在，航空公司和战争的情况有点复杂，看起来有一些迹象表明非必要的航空旅行可能会减少。因此，这种不确定性似乎也对它们产生了影响。不过目前还处于早期阶段，距离配给日也才几个星期而已。
And of course, policy is in flux, but we are seeing some preliminary impacts of trade on the real economy. And overall, of course, it is not positive. We are in a period of transition. And hopefully, and we'll see what happens, we could be in a better place a year from now, or but or not.
当然，目前政策不断变化，但我们已经看到贸易对实体经济的一些初步影响。而总体来看，这些影响并不积极。我们正处于一个过渡期。希望未来一年后，我们的情况会有所改善，但结果如何还有待观察。
So anyway, so that's all prepared for today. Thanks so much for tuning in. And again, every week is going to be exciting. Talk to you all next week.
好的，今天的内容就准备到这里。非常感谢您的收听。每周都会有精彩的内容。下周再见！