Markets Weekly April 12, 2025
发布时间 2025-04-12 15:09:48 来源
Hello my friends, today is April 12th and this is markets weekly. So this past week was a tremendously volatile and historic week and it really feels like we're living in an era where decades are happening in weeks. So it's an exciting time to be alive and be in the market. So today let's talk about three things. First, let's talk about Trump's pivot on trade policy where he suspended risk-procord tariffs on all nations but China. Secondly, let's talk about some of the good inflation data we got the past week that didn't seem to help the bond market and lastly, let's talk about some really strange price action we're seeing in the market that could suggest that we are potentially, potentially in the process of a big regime change.
你好，我的朋友们，今天是4月12日，这是本周市场周报。在过去的一周里，市场经历了剧烈波动，具有历史意味，感觉我们正在经历一个时代，在短短几周内发生了几十年的事情。生活在这样一个充满活力的时代，并参与市场，是一件令人兴奋的事情。今天我们来讨论三个话题。首先，我们谈谈特朗普在贸易政策上的转变，他暂停了对除中国之外所有国家的高风险关税。其次，我们来聊聊过去一周发布的一些不错的通胀数据，这些数据似乎未能提振债券市场。最后，我们讨论一下市场中一些非常奇怪的价格行为，这可能表明我们正潜在地处于一个重大体制变化的过程中。
Okay, starting with tariff policy. So earlier in the week we got tremendous volatility in markets. Sunday futures opened down say 4 or 5% although it did most recover. But more importantly on the trade from US-China trade relations seemed to be corining towards disorder. So China had imposed retaliatory tariffs on the US, the US and re-retaliated and it was going back and forth. So really it was just a huge escalation. Suddenly though on Wednesday afternoon, Trump posted on truth social that he would be suspending reciprocal tariffs for 90 days on all countries but China putting out that China retaliated which the US told everyone not to do.
好的，先从关税政策开始。早些时候，本周市场经历了巨大的波动。周日期货市场开盘下跌了大约4%或5%，尽管后来大部分有所恢复。但更重要的是，美中贸易关系的进展似乎正在失序。中国对美国进行了报复性关税的征收，美国也进行了反制，双方不断来回升级。这真的是一次巨大的升级。然而，突然在周三下午，特朗普在Truth Social上发文称，他将暂停对除中国以外所有国家的对等关税90天，指出中国进行报复，而美国曾告诫各国不要这样做。
So because of that, they're going to actually add even more tariffs on China. As of this recording, it's 125% tariffs and China also has huge tariffs on the US as well. It seems like the two countries are at a standoff. But for everyone else, they'll just be paying 10% tariffs and plus the other sector-specific tariffs that were announced earlier. So it's kind of a large pivot on tariff policy. Now the surprised me and many people in the Trump team have been saying that uniformly basically that we're going to be tough, we're going to be tough but then Trump did pivot on Wednesday.
所以，由于这个原因，他们实际上将对中国增收更多的关税。截至这次记录时，关税已达到125%，而中国对美国的关税也很高。看来这两个国家正处于僵持状态。但是，对于其他国家来说，他们只需支付10%的关税，加上之前宣布的特定行业的关税。这在关税政策上算是一次重大转变。这令我感到惊讶，特朗普团队的许多人一直坚称我们会采取强硬措施，但随后特朗普在周三确实改变了策略。
Now the markets took one look at that pivot and absolutely surged. The S&P 500 was up almost 10% that day. So basically trading like a penny stock. Trump basically totally nuked all the bears and I think anyone who wants to be short going forward is going to have to be very, very careful because who knows the next week could totally nuked them. Now it's reporting behind the pivot seems to suggest that Trump changed his mind for a few reasons but first let's hear from him.
现在市场对这一转折点一看就完全飙升。标普500指数当天上涨了将近10%。所以基本上像一只小盘股那样交易。特朗普几乎彻底打击了所有看空者，而我认为未来任何想做空的人都必须非常、非常小心，因为谁也不知道下周是否会再度打击他们。现在关于这一转折点的报道似乎表明，特朗普改变主意是有几个原因的，但首先让我们听听他怎么说。
Why are you like decided to put a 90-day pause? Well I thought that people were jumping a little bit out of line. They were getting yippy. You know, they were getting a little bit yippy, a little bit afraid unlike these champions. So Trump is basically saying that he got the sense that people were afraid about what was happening. I'm sure that he got totally, totally delusional to buy calls from the business community, everyone trying to lobbying him not to do this.
为什么你决定暂停90天？嗯，我觉得人们有点失去冷静，他们变得有些激动和害怕，不像那些勇敢的人。所以，特朗普基本上是在说他感觉到人们对正在发生的事情感到害怕。我相信，他受到了来自商业界的各种游说电话，试图劝说他不要这样做，但他可能对这些反应有些误解。
Now he also mentioned that he was looking at the market and the bond market in particular seemed to be concerning and we'll talk about that later. And of course reporting suggests that he saw Jamie Diamond go have an interview and give some remarks and that seemed to shape his decision as well. Trump has tremendous respect for Diamond who is a business leader and a very well-respected person in the financial world. So he's the CEO of JP Morgan.
现在，他还提到他正在观察市场，尤其是债券市场，看起来令人担忧，稍后我们会讨论这一点。当然，有报道指出，他看到杰米·戴蒙进行了采访并发表了一些评论，这似乎也影响了他的决定。特朗普对戴蒙非常敬重，戴蒙是一位商业领袖，在金融界备受尊重。戴蒙是摩根大通的首席执行官。
So all of this led Trump to change his tact a little bit. Now it also suggests that within Trump's court, Secretary Besen is gaining more prominence. Secretary Besen was previously a hedge fund manager and viewed as a more moderate voice on trade, whereas people, let's say, like Peter Navarra were viewed as much more hawkish. However analysis done by Bloomberg suggests that even after the suspension of reciprocal trade, tariffs the US imposes on other countries are much, much higher now than before.
因此，所有这些因素促使特朗普略微改变了他的策略。这也表明，在特朗普的团队中，贝森部长正获得更多的影响力。贝森部长此前是一位对冲基金经理，被视为在贸易问题上持更温和立场的人，而像彼得·纳瓦罗这样的人则被认为要强硬得多。然而，彭博社的分析表明，即便在暂停了互惠贸易后，美国对其他国家征收的关税如今比以往高得多。
And on average, this separate analysis done from the EO budget lap suggests that the average share of rate really is still significantly higher. So even though the markets like this, even though this was a pivot, it really is a very big change on US trade policy. Now this weekend, the Trump administration did announce some exemptions on certain imports from China, including laptops and zealots. Basically the stuff that you can only get from China.
根据来自EO预算的这项独立分析，平均利率份额实际上仍然显著较高。因此，即使市场对此表示欢迎，即使这是一个转折点，但这确实是对美国贸易政策的一个重大改变。就在这个周末，特朗普政府宣布对某些从中国进口的商品进行豁免，其中包括笔记本电脑和那些只能从中国获得的热销产品。
Now this makes sense from a policy perspective because for things that you can only get from China, the consumer is going to bear the branch of those tariffs. And so it's going to make it a little bit more popular for them to continue the trade war. But for things like tea, for example, someone who is importing Chinese tea, you know, after the tariffs could still get tea from other countries like Japan. So that consumer doesn't bear as big a burden.
从政策角度来看，这现在是有道理的，因为对于只能从中国获得的商品，消费者将承受这些关税的主要负担。所以这会让继续进行贸易战变得稍微受欢迎一些。但对于像茶这样的一些商品，比如有人进口中国茶叶，在关税实施后，他们仍然可以从日本等其他国家购买茶叶。因此，这类消费者的负担不会那么重。
So that seems to be the policy where we are right now. Everyone is waiting to see who will blink, whether it's President Xi or President Trump. But you know, these are two very proud nations and proud people. So it's not super clear on what's happening. Now what seems to be the strategy at the moment is that the US is trying to build a coalition of countries to be part of a trade block that excludes China. So I remember discussions with Mexico earlier had suggested that, you know, maybe Mexico could put the same tariffs on China that the US puts on China, basically being part of the team USA rather than team China.
看起来这就是我们目前的政策状况。大家都在等待，看谁会先让步，是习近平主席还是特朗普总统。但众所周知，这两个国家都是非常自豪的国家，人民也很自豪。所以现在的情况并不是特别清楚。目前看来，美国的策略是试图组建一个排除中国的贸易联盟。我记得之前与墨西哥的讨论中曾提到，有可能让墨西哥对中国施加与美国相同的关税，基本上是加入"美国队"而不是"中国队"。
And you know, right now it seems like Vietnam has spoken with the US and Vietnam is very close to China. And President Xi, it seems reporting suggesting that he's making a tour of Southeast Asia, trying to court countries there to be part of a team China. So it's possible that the world could be in the process of bifurcating. So again, a very interesting development in global trade.
现在看来，越南与美国进行了对话，而越南与中国的关系非常密切。据报道，习主席正在东南亚进行访问，试图拉拢那些国家加入中国的阵营。因此，世界可能正在走向分化。这使全球贸易形势变得非常有趣。
Now one of the reasons why President Trump suggested that he might be pivoting is because of what he saw in the bond market, which brings us to our next topic. Now inflation has been a concern for many people. We got the latest University of Michigan consumer inflation expectation survey, which shows that inflation expectations at least in the one-year timeframe are getting really, really out of control for Democrats. Inflation expectations are absolutely skyrocketing very much a panic.
现在，特朗普总统暗示他可能会转向的原因之一，是因为他在债券市场上看到的一些情况，这就引出了我们的下一个话题。如今，通货膨胀让很多人感到忧虑。最新的密歇根大学消费者通胀预期调查显示，至少在一年期内，民主党人对通胀的预期已经变得非常失控。通胀预期正迅速飙升，几乎达到了恐慌的程度。
Republicans really don't seem to be faced so far. But I think the concerning thing is that independents are also becoming more concerned about not just short-term inflation, but also long-term expectation as well. And their inflation expectations are rocketing far, far above the Fed's 2% target. So at least according to the survey, again, the University of Michigan surveys, just one survey and there are flaws to it. There are more and more people concerned about inflation.
共和党人似乎并没有受到很大影响。但让我担忧的是，独立选民也越来越关心不仅是短期的通货膨胀，还包括长期的预期。他们对通胀的预期远远超过了美联储2%的目标。因此，至少根据密歇根大学的调查，尽管这只是一个调查且存在一些缺陷，越来越多的人对通货膨胀表示担忧。
Looking at market-based indicators of inflation, the five-year, five-year, which is five-year inflation, five years from today, continues to suggest that the market is much more concerned about recession than inflation. Although, of course, it does expect inflation within the one-year timeframe due to tariffs. However, the hard inflation data we got the past week was very benign. CPI month-over-month was actually negative. Core CPI was about 0.1. So again, on a month-over-month basis, very benign inflation print. PPI, which measures inflation faced by companies, was also lower than expected.
根据市场指标观察通胀，所谓的“五年、五年”指标，即从今天起五年后的五年通胀，仍显示市场对经济衰退的担忧远大于对通胀的担忧。虽然，当然，由于关税的原因，预期在一年内会出现通胀。然而，上周公布的通胀数据非常温和。消费者价格指数（CPI）环比实际上是负数，而核心CPI大约是0.1。因此，从环比看，通胀数据依然非常温和。反映企业面临的通胀水平的生产者价格指数（PPI）也低于预期。
Now taking all this information into account, the Cleveland Fed inflation now casting is suggesting a very benign core PCE and PCE for the month of March. So the lower than expected inflation from March inflation data was largely driven by energy. Now if you look at the price of crude oil, it's absolutely tanked in part due to recession fears. However, it's also declining in part due to increased OPEC production.
综合考虑所有这些信息，克利夫兰联储的通胀预测现在表明，3月份的核心个人消费支出（PCE）和整体PCE非常温和。3月份低于预期的通胀水平主要是由能源价格推动的。如果你看看原油价格，它显著下跌，部分原因是对经济衰退的担忧。然而，价格下跌也部分归因于OPEC产量的增加。
Now, a little not widely noticed, but hours after Liberation Day, OPEC also announced that they are increasing production. And so that's weighing on energy prices. Now I think we should also remember that in January, President Trump gave a speech saying that his plan to get inflation down is to get oil prices down. And he would do that by encouraging Saudi Arabia and OPEC to pump more, in addition to deregulation and all that. And it seems like that's happening at the moment.
现在，有一个不太被广泛注意到的事件，但就在解放日后的几个小时，石油输出国组织（OPEC）也宣布他们将增加产量。这对能源价格产生了影响。我认为我们还应该记得，特朗普总统在一月份发表演讲时表示，他降低通货膨胀的计划是通过降低油价来实现的。他会通过鼓励沙特阿拉伯和OPEC增加产量，以及放松监管等方式来实现这一目标。而现在看起来，这件事正在发生。
And I'm also going to ask Saudi Arabia and OPEC to bring down the cost of oil. You got to bring it down. So that should be helpful for inflation going forward. Notwithstanding that, the people are very panicked. And interestingly, the bond market, looking at the bond market again, yields, tenure yield rose pretty notably throughout the week, closing on Friday at around 4.5%.
我还会要求沙特阿拉伯和石油输出国组织降低石油的价格。你们必须降低价格。这应该对未来的通货膨胀有所帮助。尽管如此，人们仍然非常恐慌。有趣的是，回头看债券市场，本周十年期国债收益率显著上升，周五收盘时大约为4.5%。
Now as we've discussed, this isn't really inflation expectations. It's just seemingly a lot of people selling, which goes into our last topic: very strange price action in the past week. Now historically speaking, when we have these big risk off events, we would expect two things. We would expect there to be a flight to treasuries and flight to safety. And we also expect the dollar to strengthen. Dollar has this relationship where when there's stress in the world, people run into the dollar, run into treasuries. But we didn't really see that the past week, actually at all.
现在，正如我们所讨论的，这其实并不是通胀预期。这只是看起来有很多人在抛售，这也引出了我们最后的话题：上周非常奇怪的价格走势。从历史上看，当我们遇到这些大的风险规避事件时，我们通常会预期两件事。一是资金流向国债和避险资产，二是美元走强。美元有一个特点，就是当世界局势紧张时，人们会转向美元和国债。但是，实际上在过去一周，我们并没有看到这样的情况。
Now tariffs had been very much a dollar strengthening move. And risk off usually is dollar strengthening as well. But as stocks sold off as tariffs, again, continued to weigh on the market, we actually saw the dollar depreciate pretty significantly, especially against the euro. The dollar index basically dropped a lot. At the same time, we would expect the treasuries to get a bit, the market would price in more Fed cuts, and that would lead to the treasuring market rallying, so yields lower.
最近，关税的调整曾大大导致美元走强。而通常情况下，市场规避风险也会使美元走强。但随着股票抛售增加以及关税继续对市场施压，我们实际上看到美元明显贬值，特别是相对于欧元。美元指数大幅下跌。同时，我们预期国债市场会有所反应，市场会预期美联储更多降息，这会导致国债市场上涨，从而使收益率降低。
However, treasuries sold off basically throughout the week. Even more interestingly, throughout this, the one safe haven in the world seemed to be gold. Gold rallied basically every day and honestly looks like it's going parabolic. So this suggests, well, there are a few stories that explain this behavior. One popular story is the blow up of the so-called basis trade. So basically, and treasuries secretary, best and also suggest this as well. Very often in my market career, there's one of these de-leveraging convulsions that's going on right now in the markets.
然而，本周国债几乎全周都在抛售。更有趣的是，在此期间，全球唯一的避险资产似乎是黄金。黄金几乎每天都在上涨，坦白说，看起来走势呈现出一种抛物线形态。这表明，嗯，有几种解释可以说明这种现象。其中一个流行的说法是所谓基差交易的崩盘。所以基本上，财政部长也提出了类似的建议。在我的市场职业生涯中，市场中经常会出现这种去杠杆化的剧烈波动，而此刻正是这种情况在发生。
And I think it's in the fixed income market. There are some very large leverage players who are experiencing losses that are having to de-leverage. I believe that there is nothing systemic about this. I think that it is uncomfortable, but normal de-leveraging that's going on in the bond market. There's a lot of leverage in the market. And as people de-leverage, they're selling things like treasuries. And so you got all these weird relationships.
我认为问题出在固定收益市场。现在有一些规模很大的杠杆玩家正在经历损失，他们不得不去杠杆。我相信这并没有什么系统性风险。我觉得这虽然让人不舒服，但这是债券市场中正常的去杠杆过程。市场上有很多杠杆，当人们去杠杆时，他们会卖掉像国债这样的东西。因此，你会看到各种奇怪的市场现象。
A popular candidate for de-leveraging is the basis trade. Now people have been talking about this a lot. So what the basis trade is, is hedge funds. They sell treasury futures and buy cash treasuries and try to profit from the difference between the two. If they were to de-leverage as they did during March 2020, they'd have to sell cash treasuries. And so that can lead cash treasury yields to rise. Although I think people who are in the market don't really see evidence of this. It is a very prominent story.
去杠杆化的一个热门选择是基差交易。最近人们一直在讨论这个话题。基差交易指的是对冲基金，它们卖出国债期货，然后买入现金国债，试图从两者的差价中获利。如果它们像2020年3月那样去杠杆化，就需要卖出现金国债，这可能导致现金国债收益率上升。不过，我认为市场中的人们并没有真正看到这种现象的证据。尽管如此，这仍然是一个备受关注的故事。
Another prominent story is that China, due to the trade war, is liquidating their treasury securities. Now China holds a lot of treasuries exactly how much it's a state secret. But people usually think it's at least a trillion dollars worth. So that could be happening. We don't know. We'll know later on from the official data. Or if it's done through proxies that are not in inflation, official data we may not know as clearly. So that's possible as well.
另一个引人注目的说法是，由于贸易战的影响，中国正在抛售其所持有的美国国债。中国持有大量的美国国债，具体数量是国家机密，但人们一般认为至少价值一万亿美元。因此，这种情况有可能正在发生。不过我们现在还不知道具体情况，未来可能会从官方数据中得知。如果这些抛售是通过不在通胀数据中的代理进行的，我们可能就不太容易明确了解。因此，这也是有可能的。
Now a third possibility, and this is what I will write about, which I think may actually be happening, is that we are in a fundamental regime shift where the dollar is becoming less prominent, US less of a safe haven, and where foreigners are potentially exiting the US assets and rebalancing a bit of their portfolio towards foreign assets or maybe gold. Now this is the case. It could be potentially very disorderly. I know we get some reprieve in the markets, but I continue to think the lows of this cycle are not yet in.
现在有第三种可能性，这也是我将要写的内容，我认为这实际上可能正在发生，那就是我们正处于一个基本的体制转变中。在这个转变中，美元的地位变得不那么突出，美国作为避险天堂的作用减弱，外国投资者可能正在撤出美国资产，并将他们的投资组合重新平衡，更多地转向外国资产或黄金。如果情况真是如此，那么这个过程可能会非常混乱。我知道市场上有时会出现暂时的缓解，但我仍然认为这个周期的最低点尚未到来。
So whether or not which store is true, or maybe there's some truth to all of them, we'll definitely find that out in the coming weeks. But one thing I think is pretty sure is that there are big fundamental changes in the global economic order. And if you change trade relationships, you also necessarily change capital flows. And if you change capital flows, you're also going to change a lot of relationships we see usually in the market.
所以不管哪种说法是真的，或者可能这些说法都有其真实性，我们肯定会在接下来的几周内弄清楚。但我认为可以肯定的一点是，全球经济秩序正在发生重大根本性变化。如果你改变了贸易关系，那么资本流动必然也会发生变化。而一旦资本流动改变，我们在市场中通常看到的许多关系也会随之改变。
So again, be on a lookout for that. All right, so that's all I prepared for today. Very exciting week. Next week is probably going to be just as exciting. All right, guys, be careful, and I'll talk to you all next week.
所以，再次提醒大家注意那个。好吧，这就是我今天准备的全部内容。这个星期真是令人兴奋。下个星期可能同样令人期待。好了，大家注意安全，我们下周再聊。