The 3 Ideas That Will Shape The Next 10 Years - Naval Ravikant

What do you think is currently ignored by the media but will be studied by historians? You're asking me that question right now. What do I think is ignored by the media but will be studied by historians? Well, I mean, the media is only focused on very timely things. So it depends if you want to talk about timely or timeless. But as a simple example, if I just look at things that may be the next five or 10 years that are going to make a massive difference that people are not focused enough on. And I think within two years, this will be obvious.

你问我目前媒体忽视但将来历史学家会研究的是什么。嗯，我认为媒体通常只关注眼前的事情。所以这要看你是想讨论短期的还是长期的。不过，简单来说，如果看未来五到十年内会产生巨大影响但人们尚未足够关注的事情，我认为在两年内这些会变得明显。

So like the, I make a prediction, predictions are tough, but you're going to have to eat it enough. You go, yeah, I'm going to eat this in a few years. So I'm probably wrong. But two things that I pay attention to that I don't think a lot of people do pay attention to. Well, there's a couple. One is I think just how bad modern medicine is. I think people just put a lot more faith in modern medicine than is warranted. Like our best ideas for a lot of things are surgery, just cutting things out, treating things that are extraneous.

就像这样，我要做一个预测，尽管预测很难，而且你可能需要去承受其为你所带来的后果。几年之后，你或许会想："是的，当初我会怎么想的，真是错得离谱。"不过有两件事我关注了，而我觉得很多人并没有注意到。其中之一是现代医学的问题有多严重。我认为人们对现代医学的信任远超过了应有的程度。就像，我们现在对很多事情的最佳方案就是做手术，把一些东西切除，治疗一些无关紧要的问题。

Like, oh, you don't really need a gall bladder, you don't really need an appendix, so you don't really need tonsils. Oh, that's false. I've, so plus recline. Human body is very, very efficient. All those things are needed. You know, so I think I think the state of modern medicine is sort of pretty bad. We don't have many good explanatory theories in biology. We have germ theory disease. We have evolution. We have cell theory. We have DNA genetics morphogenesis embryogenesis and not much else. You know, there's not much else. Everything else is rules of thumb memorization, AFXB because effects see effects D, but we don't understand the underlying explanation.

翻译如下： 就像，有人会说，你不是真的需要胆囊，你也不是真的需要阑尾，所以你也不真的需要扁桃体。哦，这是错误的。我觉得，人类的身体是非常非常高效的，所有这些东西都是有用的。所以，我认为当代医学的状况有点糟糕。我们在生物学中没有太多好的解释理论。我们有细菌致病理论，有进化论，有细胞理论，有DNA遗传学、形态发生和胚胎发生，这些之外就没剩下多少了。其他的几乎都是一些经验法则或者记忆的方法，因为A导致B，所以影响了C和D，但我们并不理解背后的根本原因。

It's all just words, point to words, point to words. So biology is still in a very sorry state. And because we are not allowed to take risk that might kill people. We just don't experiment enough in biology. So a lot of treatments are just outright banned by largely good three bodies. So we just don't have the innovation. So I think we're still in the stone age when it comes to biology and we got a long ways to go. And I think people will look back a gas at this.

这只是一些文字，一个词指向另一个词。所以，生物学依然处在一个非常糟糕的状态。因为我们不被允许冒险，以防可能危及生命的风险，所以我们在生物学领域的实验还远远不够。因此，许多治疗方法都被禁止，主要是因为三个权威机构的规定。因此我们的创新不足。我认为在生物学方面我们依然处在石器时代，还有很长的路要走。我想未来人们回顾这一切时会感到震惊。

And I think this is Brian Johnson's point. He's like, you know, let's be more extreme. Let's try to live forever. It's experimental. It must be more experimental. And I'll start as end of one, to start experimenting on myself. But even there, I disagree with Brian and many things like, you know, taking huge amounts of supplements. I think we just don't know it supplements outside of the natural context. Like, just eat liver man. Right. But that's fine. And that wouldn't be vegan either. But you know, it's I really appreciate that he's experimenting. He's good nature to about me shares everything. So we need more people like that.

我想这就是Brian Johnson的观点。他想让我们更加极端，尝试永生。这是一种实验，必须更加实验化。他愿意以自己为实验对象开始自我试验。但即便如此，我在很多事情上还是不同意Brian的观点，例如摄入大量补充剂。我认为在缺乏自然背景的情况下使用补充剂是不明智的，比如说，只要多吃牛肝就好了。当然，这样也不算是素食主义。但我非常欣赏他乐于尝试且性格良好，他愿意分享自己的一切。我们需要更多这样的人。

So I think the state of biology people will look back and say, wow, that was in the dark ages. I think another another thing that will look back on is I think we still continue to underestimate how important drones are going to be in warfare. The future of all warfare is drones. There will be nothing else in the battlefield. Because I think of the end state of drones is autonomous bullets, not even guy autonomous, like they're self directed.

我认为，将来人们回顾生物学的发展时，会感叹那时就像是黑暗时代。我还认为，人们将来也会意识到我们现在仍然低估了无人机在战争中的重要性。未来所有的战争都将以无人机为主战工具，战场上不会有其他武器。我认为无人机的终极状态是成为自主巡航的子弹，不需要人为操控，它们可以自我导航。

And so if that's the future we're headed towards and that's it is just what you have an on false that's just going to be no there's going to be no aircraft carriers, going to be no tanks, there's going to be no infantry men. They're just going to be autonomous bullets by autonomous bullets against your autonomous bullets, whichever ones win the other side, just surrenders because over. I think that's the second piece of it.

如果这就是我们将来的发展方向，那将意味着不再有航空母舰、不再有坦克，也不再有步兵。只会有自动化的子弹对抗自动化的子弹，哪一方的子弹胜出，另一方就会投降，因为一切都结束了。我认为这是事情的另一面。

I think a third piece that is going to be kind of unexpected is the GLP ones, which I know you and I have probably discussed before. I think these are the most breakthrough drugs since antibiotics. They're probably more important than statins. They're sort of miracle drugs. They seem to they're there are downsides, but the downside and side effects are so minor compared to the upsides beyond just weight loss. They also seem to be addiction breakers. They seem to lower many kinds of cancer.

我觉得第三个有点出乎意料的内容是GLP类药物，我知道你我可能之前讨论过这类药物。我认为这些药物是继抗生素之后最具突破性的药物，可能比他汀类药物还要重要。它们可以说是奇迹药物。虽然它们也有一些负面作用和副作用，但与带来的好处相比，这些负面作用非常微小。这些药物不仅仅有助于减肥，它们似乎还能帮助戒除成瘾，并可能降低多种癌症的风险。

They almost metabolically reverse aging up to a certain point. And I think they're going to bend the curve on healthcare costs and the big question people can be asking over the next five years is why are Americans paying thousands of dollars a month for this when people overseas are getting them for free or I can order them from China for free or whatever. And maybe it like if I were Bernie Sanders the platform I would be running on is I would say okay we're going to pay for you know hundreds of billions of dollars to Novo and Eli Lilly and we're just going to make these free or there's hundreds of analogs of these things that were these are not going to be you know limited to just the few that are being used today. Just take one of them or two of them making free.

他们几乎在一定程度上逆转了衰老的代谢过程。我认为他们将会改变医疗成本的趋势。在接下来的五年里，人们可能会问的一个大问题是，为什么美国人每个月要花费数千美元来获得这种疗法，而海外的人们却免费获得，或者我可以从中国免费订购。如果我是伯尼·桑德斯，我会在竞选中提出，我们将投入数千亿美元给诺和诺德（Novo Nordisk）和礼来（Eli Lilly），然后把这些疗法免费提供给大家。或者说，有上百种类似的疗法可供选择，不仅仅局限于今天正在使用的几个。只需要将其中一两种免费提供给大众。

I think it'll make a big difference. And as you and I were discussing earlier this does bend a lot of people out of shape who got through the old fashioned way and they want to see obesity as a moral failing on people's parts and it lowers their status if they are certainly a signal is the last of a signal. Yeah, so they're incentive to say well you don't know the downsides you know it's irresponsible to suggest this going to cause cancer have fun losing bone and muscle mass by the end of that stuff is really true. The cancer stuff is actually beneficial on I know people who are now taking these things for anti-aging reasons they're already fit but they just want to age better and have a stronger insulin metabolism.

我认为这将带来很大的改变。正如你我之前讨论的，这确实让很多通过传统方式努力过来的人感到不安。他们倾向于认为肥胖是个人道德的失败，可能会降低他们的地位，因为这不再是一个明显的信号。因此，他们倾向于说你不知道这些方法的弊端，比如不负责任地建议可能会导致癌症、到最后可能会失去骨骼和肌肉质量。这些担忧确实有一定的道理。然而，实际上，对于癌症的担忧是有益的。我知道一些人现在为了抗衰老的原因使用这些方法，他们已经很健康，但他们只是希望能够更好地应对衰老，并拥有更强的胰岛素代谢能力。

And there's evidence now that these things are you know they put off dementia, Alzheimer's, colon cancer it's insane cardiovascular disease like the list of benefits is insane. There's no free lunch but this is a class of drugs that prevents you from taking other drugs into your body it prevents you from taking you know too much sugar too much too many calories and an ear of abundance prevents you from smoking prevents you from even there's an organization called Casper that is not doing a study on heroin addictions and they're showing that it's going to lower opioid overdoses and heroin addiction so there's a lot of overwhelming medical evidence coming out and I think I don't know the exact number but I think something like 10% of the population might not have tried.

现在有证据表明，这些药物可以推迟老年痴呆症、阿尔茨海默病、结肠癌等疾病的发生，效果惊人，还有心血管疾病，这些好处简直难以置信。虽然没有免费的午餐，但这一类药物能阻止你摄入其他药物，防止你摄入过多的糖分和热量。在物质过剩的时代，它还能阻止你吸烟。甚至有一个名为Casper的组织正在研究海洛因成瘾的问题，研究显示它能降低阿片类药物过量和海洛因成瘾的情况。因此，有很多压倒性的医学证据正在涌现。我不确定具体数字，但我估计大约有10%的人口可能还未尝试过。

I think that's the number that it's going massive. So I think it's about 50% of the population say that they would like to try it exactly. So I think the body positivity movement is dead and we always kind of knew it was a scat. I mean it's dying very very quickly. I equipped like you can never be too rich too thin or too clean right and immediately like a whole bunch of people went non-linear of my mentions like what do you mean too thin and what about the hygiene hypothesis and you know obviously there's always exceptions but people want to be thin and fit and people want to be clean back to the pathogen discussion that we had.

我觉得这个数字正在变得庞大。我想大约有50%的人口表示他们想尝试一下。所以，我认为“身体正面运动”已经消亡，而我们一直都知道它有些不可信。我是说，它正在非常迅速地消退。我曾说过：“你永远不会太有钱、太瘦或太干净”，这句话立刻让很多人在我的评论中情绪激动，纷纷质问“怎么会太瘦呢？”以及“卫生假说又是怎么回事？”显然，总是会有例外，但人们想要瘦和健康，人们也想要干净，这又回到了我们之前关于病原体的讨论。

So I think overall that there's going to be huge demand for these things and our modern medical system is not built to supply these well. I don't hold it against the farmers. I think the farmers did their job by creating the thing but I think next we need to step up and figure out how to make it broadly and cheaply available as opposed to just milk it for only for people on obesity you can get Medicare to sign off for it or people paying out of pocket at a very very high prices. Yeah.

所以我认为，总的来说，这些东西会有很大的需求，但我们的现代医疗系统并没有做好充足供应的准备。我不责怪农民，我认为他们通过创造这个产品已经尽责了。我认为接下来我们需要努力研究如何让它变得广泛且价格低廉地供应，而不是只将其用于那些有肥胖问题并且可以通过医保支付的人，或者是以非常高的价格自费购买的人。

The benefits of societal distribution of the safer GLP ones is so large that whichever politicians are tackles that is going to be richly rewarded. Well obesity is the number one source of malnutrition worldwide there's twice as many people that are obese than a starving. So about half a billion people are starving and many problems are downstream of that. Like you know look at how much of the federal budget goes in dialysis because the kidney failure and why is that? It's got diabetes.

更安全的GLP产品在社会上广泛分配的好处非常巨大，不论哪个政治家推动此事，都会得到丰厚回报。全球范围内，肥胖是营养不良的首要原因，肥胖人口是挨饿人口的两倍。因此，大约有五亿人处于饥饿状态，许多问题由此而来。例如，看看联邦预算中有多少资金用于透析，这是因为肾功能衰竭，而这又是由糖尿病引起的。

So so many of the problems that we have in Marnecite are downstream of obesity and you know this like fitness is so important and yes there's in some people these things call mus- cause muscle and bone loss but not in the people who eating high protein and working out hard. So it can be taken away that's safer and some versions of these like literally glutide the original one they've been around for decades and the others have been around for about a decade. And we already have as you said 10% of the population taking them so they're already quite widely distributed.

我们在Marnecite遇到的许多问题实际上都是肥胖引起的。你知道，健身是非常重要的。有些人可能会因为某些原因导致肌肉和骨骼流失，但那些摄入高蛋白并积极锻炼的人不会出现这种情况。所以，这些问题是可以避免的。一些药物，比如早期的利鲁鲁肽（Glutide），已经存在几十年，而其他药物也已经存在大约十年了。正如你所说，目前已经有10%的人口在使用这些药物，所以它们的分布已经相当广泛。

It's a good sample size. Yeah it's a great sample size what more do you need? Like if you have a bacterial infection that's eating you I don't say oh I have this antibiotic but it's going to raise your blood pressure. It's like no take the antibiotic. If you're going to kill yourself I say take this anisecotic and stay alive a little longer and solve it. I don't say oh it's going to you know cause your heart rate to go up by three beats a minute. I don't worry about that.

这已经是一个很好的样本量了。是的，这是一个很棒的样本量，还需要什么呢？就像如果你有细菌感染正在侵蚀你的身体，我不会说哦，我有这种抗生素，但它会让你的血压升高。我会说，不，赶紧吃抗生素。如果你要自杀，我会说服你吃这种能让你稳定下来的药，先活久一点再解决问题。我不会说，哦，这个药可能会让你的心率每分钟增加三下。我不担心这些。

So similarly if you're poisoning yourself with toxins and overuse of substances that you shouldn't be using either heroin alcohol, cigarettes, sugar or just sheer calories take this GLP1. They also improve digestion. You just have less calories just less food matter going through your stomach. The lower cancer risks across the board there's quite a few cancers that lower. Cardiovascular I don't know what else to tell you. I've been very surprised by the negative reception whenever you have a conversation about GLP1s and I think a lot of it may be people who.

同样地，如果你正在用毒素和过量使用一些你不应该使用的物质来伤害自己，比如海洛因、酒精、香烟、糖或者只是单纯地摄入过多的卡路里，可以尝试使用GLP1。它们还能改善消化功能。你摄入的卡路里减少了，进入胃里的食物也减少了。此外，使用GLP1能在多种癌症中降低患癌风险。对于心血管健康方面，我不知道还有什么好说的。让我惊讶的是，每当谈论到GLP1时，总能遇到很多负面的反应，我觉得这可能与许多人的误解有关。

Well think about how many sacred cows are being gourd. All the people who are basically saying you should work harder you should be fit like I did. It's lowering their status. Think about all the nutritionists and doctors and trainers who are now being you know it's too easy. They're being put out of business in a way. It's kind of like why does the American military keep buying aircraft carriers? In the age of drones. There's an incentive bias. There's a very strong motivated reasoning but it doesn't matter.

可以想一想，有多少所谓的“神圣不可侵犯”的观念正在受到挑战。那些总是说“你应该像我一样更努力工作、更健康”的人，他们的地位正在下降。再想想那些营养师、医生和健身教练，现在他们好像都被认为太容易被取代，在某种程度上，他们的行业正在被淘汰。这有点像美国军方在无人机时代依然不断购买航空母舰。有一种动机偏见和非常强烈的动机性推理，但这并不重要。

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