Elon Dunks on Competition / Tesla Generationally Ahead / Other Manufacturers Worried ⚡️
发布时间 2025-04-01 01:26:51 来源
Welcome to ElectroFide, it's your host, Dylan Luma. So ahead of Tesla's quarter one delivery numbers likely to be received this Wednesday, April 2nd, we got the company compiled consensus and it came in at 377,592. This figure is from 27 different analysts, and I would say that's materially higher than the whisper number as far as I can tell. I would put the whisper number closer to about 355,000. And just like it's been easy to find new cases of people vandalizing Teslas seemingly daily, it's also been pretty easy to find new people coming out to support Tesla buying Tesla vehicles. That wouldn't have otherwise considered doing so, just remember some of that support isn't going to show up until quarter two and later this year.
欢迎来到ElectroFide，我是你的主持人Dylan Luma。本周三，也就是4月2日，特斯拉的第一季度交付数据即将公布。在此之前，我们收集了来自27位分析师的一致预测，得出的预期交付量是377,592辆。我认为这个数字显著高于市场“耳语”数字，后者我估计在355,000辆左右。
正如每天似乎很容易发现有人破坏特斯拉的事件一样，也同样容易发现越来越多的人开始支持特斯拉并购买特斯拉车辆，尽管他们之前可能还没有考虑过。这其中一些支持可能要到第二季度甚至更晚才能显示出来。
Let's say Tesla hits the consensus figure of 377,000, there's still a reasonable path to doing 1.8 million sales for the year. That would leave about 442,000 for quarter two, 486,000 for Q3 and then 545,000 for Q4. And don't forget we're getting closer and closer to these more affordable models, which yes, will cannibalize Tesla's Y in three sales to some degree, but as I've laid out in the past using some data, I do believe Tesla offering these more affordable models and opening up a significantly larger tam will more than offset any cannibalization. And of course ultimately leads to a material increase in annual sales once production is ramped up.
假设特斯拉达到了37.7万辆的市场共识目标，仍有可能在一年内实现180万辆的销售。这样的话，第二季度的目标将是44.2万辆，第三季度为48.6万辆，最后第四季度达到54.5万辆。而且别忘了，我们越来越接近推出更实惠车型的目标。虽然这可能在一定程度上影响特斯拉Model Y和Model 3的销量，但正如我之前用一些数据分析过的那样，我相信，特斯拉推出这些更实惠的车型并大幅扩大潜在市场规模，足以抵消任何销量的减少。最终，一旦生产规模扩大，这无疑会导致年销量的实质性增长。
Y'all know the EV universe put together a really nice thread covering EV sales across 58 different markets for 2024. These markets covered 99.7% of all full BEV sales. I'll have the full thread linked below, but I wanted to share this slide. 16 different markets have now reached over 20% in full EV market share in 2024. Three of those are over 50%, those being Norway, Hong Kong, and Denmark. And another four are over 30%, being Malta, Sweden, the Netherlands, and Singapore. And just a fun fact, China for 2024 full BEV sales were just under 25% and California was just under 22%.
你们都知道，EV宇宙整理了一份非常好的帖子，覆盖了2024年在58个市场上的电动车（EV）销售情况。这些市场覆盖了全球99.7%的纯电动汽车（BEV）销售。我会把完整的帖子链接放在下面，但我想分享一下这张幻灯片。到2024年，16个市场的纯电动车市场份额已超过20%。其中三个市场超过了50%，分别是挪威、香港和丹麦。还有四个市场超过30%，分别是马耳他、瑞典、荷兰和新加坡。一个有趣的事实是，2024年，中国的纯电动车销量略低于25%，而美国加州则略低于22%。
You guys know I love to zoom out so here's that chart tracking full BEV sales by year, and in 2024 it saw a 5% growth relative to 2023, which yes was certainly a material slowdown from years prior. But between policy changes, the popularization of hybrids, legacy OEMs failures to bring great EVs to market, a slowdown was to be expected. I always look forward to Tesla's P&D reports although I've never really put that much stock into any single one. Nothing is changing for this quarter if anything I may put even less weight in it given everything going on. Primarily, the change over to the new Model Y.
你们知道我喜欢从大局来看问题，因此这里有一张按年份追踪纯电动车（BEV）销量的图表。2024年相较于2023年，销量增长了5%，这与前几年的增速相比确实算是显著放缓。不过，考虑到政策变化、混合动力车的流行、传统汽车制造商未能推出优秀电动车等因素，销量放缓是可以预料的。我总是期待特斯拉的生产和交付报告，但实际上我从未过于依赖其中的单一报告。对于本季度，也没有什么变化，甚至可能会因为相关情况更加让报告的权重减轻，主要是因为全新Model Y的推出。
But there are some encouraging signs for quarter two and beyond. Tesla Chan shared some images of customers waiting in line in Korea to check out the new Model Y. Tesla manufacturing shared today that Gigabrelin has built the 500,000th Model Y cumulatively. Now let's put this into context. The first customer vehicle delivery from Gigabrelin was March 2022. So doing some math using Tesla's prior announcements for production rates at Gigabrelin paired with some figures from Troy Tesslik, it's likely that Gigabrelin produced right around 200,000 vehicles for 2024 and 2023 leaving the remaining 100,000 split between 2023 quarters 2 through 4 and quarter 1 of 2025. So we'll call it 50,000 for 2023 for the ramp and 50,000 for Q1 this year.
第二季度及以后的情况有一些令人鼓舞的迹象。特斯拉的陈先生分享了一些图片，显示韩国的顾客在排队等待查看新的Model Y车型。特斯拉制造部门今天宣布，Gigabrelin已经累计生产了第50万辆Model Y。让我们将此放在背景中来看。Gigabrelin首批交付给客户的车辆是在2022年3月。根据特斯拉之前公布的Gigabrelin的生产率，再结合一些来自Troy Tesslik的数字进行计算，Gigabrelin在2024年和2023年间生产了大约20万辆车，剩余的10万辆则是在2023年的第二季度到第四季度，以及2025年第一季度之间生产的。因此，我们可以假设2023年大约生产了5万辆，而今年第一季度也生产了5万辆。
So what does that mean? Well, Tesla's peak production at Gigabrelin so far has been right around 200,000 units per year whereas the listed capacity at Berlin is over 375,000, which works out to a utilization rate of about 53%, certainly not ideal. As is often the case, there's a lot more to the story. This factory has helped Tesla avoid EU tariffs on cars from China and has led to Tesla localizing most of its supply chain around Gigabrelin for vehicles destined for Germany and surrounding areas. So I'd say this: so far Gigabrelin probably has been a letdown relative to expectations set by Tesla. Not that it's been a failure, but I do think even Elon would admit the red tape and the pushback from Berlin even before all of the political drama may have been unexpected when Tesla set up shop.
这是什么意思呢？特斯拉在柏林超级工厂的最高年产量至今大约是20万辆，而柏林工厂的标定产能超过37.5万辆，这意味着产能利用率只有大约53%，这一数字显然不够理想。但事情往往不止如此。这个工厂帮助特斯拉避免了欧盟针对中国制造汽车的关税，并且促使特斯拉在柏林超级工厂周围本地化了针对德国及周边地区车辆的大部分供应链。因此，我认为：到目前为止，柏林超级工厂可能未能达到特斯拉最初的预期。并不是说它是一个失败，但我认为即便是埃隆·马斯克也会承认，当特斯拉设立工厂的时候，柏林的繁文缛节和来自当地的反对可能是意料之外的，更不用说后来出现的政治风波了。
And we've covered the reports over the past few months that Tesla had plans to double production from Gigabrelin from 500,000 units to 1 million per year. But as we just deduced, Tesla hasn't even hit half of that 500,000 figure yet from Berlin. So we'll see what happens with these more affordable models and the cybercab, but for now, there are definitely questions out there about Gigabrelin's future. On the topic of Gigabrelin, it remained posted a picture of two model-wise out front of Gigabrelin, one saying drive, and the other saying rent me, but I believe this program is only for Gigabrelin employees.
过去几个月，我们报道过特斯拉计划将柏林超级工厂的产量从50万辆提高到每年100万辆。然而，正如我们刚刚推测的那样，特斯拉在柏林还没有达到50万辆的一半。因此，我们将拭目以待这些更实惠的车型以及电动出租车的进展，但目前，关于柏林超级工厂的未来，确实有一些疑问。在有关柏林超级工厂的话题上，有人发布了一张柏林工厂前面两辆Model Y的照片，一辆车上写着“驾车”，另一辆写着“租我”，不过我相信这个项目只针对柏林超级工厂的员工。
Elon shared a post from Sawyer saying, as I've said previously, unsupervised full self-driving Teslas will be carrying passengers in Austin, in June, and many cities in America by end of year. This will enable passenger cars to increase in utility by roughly half an order of magnitude overnight with a software update. It's also worth sharing what David Faber from CNBC said, I have the opportunity to ride in a Tesla this weekend on FSD, it's worth doing. The steering wheel was not touched, the technology is real. People are driving 100 miles out of New York City and not touching the steering wheel once. So it's like welcome to the party, David. We've been trying to tell you guys this now for really the past few years. But I guess it's true what they say in better late than never. I'll say it again because I'm seeing a lot of people on forums across the internet expecting CyberCab to be delivering these robots Axi rides in June.
埃隆分享了索耶的一篇帖子，表示如我之前所说的，无人驾驶全自动特斯拉将在六月载客于奥斯汀，年底前将在美国的许多城市推广。通过软件更新，这将使乘用车的使用效率瞬间提高大约五倍。CNBC的David Faber也提到，他有机会在这个周末体验一次特斯拉的全自动驾驶，这很值得尝试。整个过程中方向盘没有被触碰，技术是真实存在的。人们从纽约出发，行驶100英里，也不用碰方向盘。欢迎加入这个行列，David。我们已经尝试告诉大家这一点好几年了，不过正如俗话所说，迟做总比不做好。我再重复一遍，因为我看到很多网上论坛上的人期待CyberCab将在六月提供这些机器人的自动驾驶服务。
For whatever it's worth, my expectation for June is that this program will start with Tesla's current lineup. Model 3 and Y and maybe a few SNX as well. My main rationale for this is Franz and Lars both saying the CyberCab would remain in prototype form for this year and then enter actual production next year. But yes, I would love to be wrong on this one. And yes, it's easy to get excited about this many cities in America by the end of the year. But that could just mean multiple cities across both Texas and California because so far, those are the only two states that have been explicitly mentioned for this year. And I would say this one's definitely not nothing we have an executive from Bosch in China saying that Tesla's FSD is generationally ahead of domestic solutions.
不论有多少价值，我对六月的预期是，该计划将从特斯拉目前的车型阵容开始。可能会包括Model 3和Model Y，或许还有一些Model S和Model X。我的主要依据是Franz和Lars都表示CyberCab将在今年维持原型状态，并于明年正式生产。当然，我希望自己在这点上错了。确实，在年底前，看到许多美国城市加入这个计划让人兴奋，但这可能只是指得克萨斯和加州的多个城市，因为到目前为止，只有这两个州明确被提到将在今年加入。而且，特斯拉的自动驾驶技术领先于国内解决方案，甚至有来自中国博世的高管这样评价，这绝对不是无关紧要的信息。
He said I test drove the Cybertruck in the US after the test drive I was truly amazed. It brought me three distinct features, extreme confidence, extreme safety and extreme comfort. These three differentiators are experiences that no domestic manufacturing plan can offer. The algorithm level of this end-to-end model is far ahead of all domestic manufacturing. And what do you know? Elon replied to Herbert who shared this post saying accurate. Elon also said we could have done a neighborhood by neighborhood handcrafted solution with high resolution maps and expensive sensors much sooner. But that doesn't scale well and gets destroyed by real world AI and cameras. Which I'm sure most of you can pick up on is a direct shot at the Weimo business model.
他说，我在美国试驾了Cybertruck，试驾后我感到非常惊讶。它给我带来了三个独特的特点：极致的自信、极致的安全和极致的舒适。这三个差异化的特点是任何国内制造厂都无法提供的。这个端到端模型的算法水平远远领先于所有国内制造。而且你知道吗？伊隆回复分享这篇帖子的赫伯特时说准确无误。伊隆还提到，我们本可以早点通过高分辨率地图和昂贵传感器，为每个社区手工打造解决方案。但这种方法扩展性差，并且会被现实世界的人工智能和摄像头淘汰。我相信你们大多数人都能明白，这是在直接批评Weimo的商业模式。
Samsung has kicked off production of its 46 series cylindrical batteries and these will be shipped to a customer in the US and will first be used in micromobility with EVs set to follow. The cells are being made in South Korea and they're being assembled into modules in Vietnam. There's actually another report that saying it's not just Samsung but LG has also started mass producing 46 series batteries. They said the Korean battery manufacturers are worried about Tesla's dry battery electrode process which could be a game changer. If Samsung is focusing on the 4695s when they get around to EV deliveries, Rivian could be on the list as that's the specific size that Rivian will be using for the R2.
三星已经开始生产其46系列圆柱电池，这些电池将运往美国客户，首先用于微型交通工具，然后用于电动车。这些电芯在韩国制造，并在越南组装成模块。据另一份报告称，不仅三星，LG也开始量产46系列电池。据称，韩国的电池制造商对特斯拉的干电池电极工艺感到担忧，因为这可能会改变游戏规则。如果三星在电动车交付时专注于4695型号，Rivian可能会在名单上，因为Rivian将使用这种特定尺寸的电池用于R2车型。
But don't forget LG is set to supply Tesla with 4680s from its factory in Arizona. And it has been confirmed Samsung is planning to make 4680s for Tesla. But the reason Samsung and LG might be worried about Tesla's DBE is because that would give Tesla a lot more leverage in these supply negotiations. Reason being if Tesla is making a more efficient, more energy dense, more cost-effective cell in house, then clearly they would not be as eager to use outside cells. And the word for now, these Korean companies are expecting to be able to produce DBE cells by 2028. So if Tesla hits its goal of actually using DBE in production vehicles for both electrodes, this is another arena where Tesla could have a multi-year advantage.
但请别忘了，LG计划从其亚利桑那工厂为特斯拉供应4680电池。而且已经确认，三星也计划为特斯拉制造4680电池。然而，三星和LG可能对特斯拉的DBE技术感到担忧的原因在于，这将使特斯拉在供货谈判中拥有更多的优势。因为如果特斯拉能够在内部生产出更高效、更高能量密度、更具成本效益的电池单元，那么显然他们就不会急于使用外部供应的电池。目前，这些韩国公司预计将在2028年之前生产出DBE电池。所以，如果特斯拉能实现其目标，在生产车辆中同时使用DBE技术于正极和负极，那么在这个领域中，特斯拉可能会拥有多年的领先优势。
This time on battery companies which really is impressive, but as we've been saying, we'll take time to show up on Tesla's income statement. I have a confession to make. I spend most of my waking hours consuming content. I constantly think there's not enough time in the day to do everything I'd like to do. I've always been very interested in performance optimization since my early days as an athlete. Rouse gets it over to Loomis Loomis for three and he does it to Loomis! Wow! That's time gets it out to Loomis Loomis for three and he does it to Loomis! Oh, he fails to three times to get the second big three for Doomis tonight! Unbelievable, my dear Loomis!
这次关于电池公司的情况确实令人印象深刻，但正如我们一直所说的，这需要一些时间才能在特斯拉的收入报表上体现出来。我有一个要坦白的事情。我大部分清醒的时间都在消费内容。我经常觉得一天的时间不够用，无法完成我想做的一切。从我早期做运动员开始，我一直对提高表现很感兴趣。Rouse传给Loomis，Loomis投三分，他投中了，太棒了！Rouse再次传给Loomis，又是一个三分，可惜这次没成功。今天晚上Loomis尝试三次来投中他的第二个重要三分！真是不可思议，我亲爱的Loomis！
Today that means I watch a lot of Andrew Huberman, Peter Etier, and I've been focused on business efficiency the past few years given what I'm working on behind the scenes, which has brought Tim Ferris and Sahil Blum into my rotation. Can you guess what all four of these high performing individuals have in common? They've all been drinking AG1 for years and recommending that others do as well. AG1 is the sponsor of this episode for perhaps just a little while longer, but you've heard from me a lot, so listen to what these guys have said.
今天，这意味着我经常观看安德鲁·霍伯曼（Andrew Huberman）和彼得·埃蒂尔（Peter Etier）的内容，近几年我一直专注于提高业务效率，因为我在幕后工作的内容需要这样做，这也让我开始关注蒂姆·费里斯（Tim Ferris）和萨希尔·布卢姆（Sahil Blum）。你能猜到这四位高效人士有什么共同点吗？他们多年来一直在喝AG1，并且推荐其他人也这么做。AG1是本期节目的赞助商，可能赞助时间不会太久，但你已经听我说过很多次了，不如听听这些人怎么说。
Tim Ferris said, I get asked all the time, if you could use only one supplement what would it be? My answer is usually AG1, my all-in-one nutritional insurance. Importantly, I recommend it in the four-hour body in 2010 and did not get paid to do so. Andrew Huberman said, this is the supplement I recommend when asked what is the one best thing to take. For me, taking AG1 is a non-negotiable everyday practice. And on this point, because I know a few of you will think, well, yeah, he's part of the AG1 advisory board, of course, he's going to say that.
蒂姆·费里斯经常被问到，如果只能选择一种膳食补充剂，他会选什么。他通常的答案是AG1，他称其为全方位的营养保障。重要的是，他在2010年的《四小时身体》一书中就推荐了AG1，而且没有收取任何费用。安德鲁·休伯曼也表示，当被问到有什么最佳补充剂时，他推荐AG1。对他来说，每天服用AG1已经成为一种不可动摇的习惯。在这一点上，他也意识到，有些人可能会认为他作为AG1顾问委员会的一员，当然会这么说。
I get it, but listen, do you not think that Huberman could be a part of any company like this that he wanted to? There's a reason he chose to partner with AG1, and Peter Atia actually speaks to this. If you think AG1 is expensive, Peter Atia has acknowledged that, but he said he can speak to the quality of the product because he's seen how the sausage is made, and he takes a scoop of AG1 every day, regardless of what he's eating.
我明白了，但请听我说：你难道不觉得Huberman可以加入任何他想加入的公司吗？他选择与AG1合作是有原因的。Peter Atia实际上也提到了这一点。如果你觉得AG1很贵，Peter Atia已经承认了这一点，但他说他能证明产品的质量，因为他见过产品的制作过程，而且不管他吃什么，他每天都会服用一勺AG1。
Let me make this simple. Here's the list of AG1 ingredients, so do an exercise. Find however many individual supplements you would need to match the ingredients of AG1 and see how much that would cost. And don't forget, you have to seek out the best sourcing of those others because AG1 sources its ingredients incredibly well, and is actually quite transparent with this if you want to look into it. And yes, trying out AG1 for yourself for a few months is a great way to support the channel, so if you'd like to get some free travel packs into one year supply of Vitamin D3K2, you can head to drinkag1.com slash electrify to link below, or you can use the QR code on the screen. Cheers.
让我简单说一下。这是AG1的成分清单，做个练习，找出需要多少种单独的补充剂才能匹配AG1的成分，并计算一下这需要花费多少。此外，不要忘了你必须寻找这些补充剂的最佳来源，因为AG1在成分供应上做得非常好，而且透明度很高，如果你有兴趣可以去了解一下。是的，自己试用几个月AG1是支持我们频道的好方法，所以如果你想获得一些免费的旅行包和一年的维生素D3K2供应，可以访问drinkag1.com/electrify，下方有链接，或者你可以使用屏幕上的二维码。干杯！
17 Tesla vehicles were destroyed after a fire broke out at a Tesla location in Rome. They said they're investigating all avenues while looking into how the fire started, but so far they have not ruled out arson. If this does end up being arson and not an accident, then you would expect Georgia Maloney, whose Elon's friend and ally to come out and condemn these attacks as soon as possible. This is still a developing story, but the word is these vehicles were awaiting customer deliveries.
在罗马的一处特斯拉地点发生火灾，导致17辆特斯拉汽车被损毁。目前，他们正在调查火灾起因的各种可能性，但尚未排除人为纵火的可能性。如果最终证明是人为纵火而非意外事故，那么预计埃隆·马斯克的朋友和盟友乔治娅·马洛尼将会尽快公开谴责这些攻击事件。这一事件仍在发展中，不过了解到的情况是，这些车辆原本是要交付给客户的。
The story of the weekend was the Tesla takedown protests across the country and really across the world, but there were some counter protests of people supporting Elon, Tesla, and Doge. Unfortunately, the latter upset this individual who decided to drive his vehicle and actually hit one of these counter protesters. Thankfully, he's been charged with aggravated assault. I'm sharing though because Elon replied to this saying the violence against Tesla is insane.
这个周末的新闻焦点是遍布全国乃至全球的特斯拉抵制抗议活动，但也有一些人发起了支持埃隆·马斯克、特斯拉和狗狗币的反抗议。不幸的是，后一种抗议激怒了一位个人，他竟然开车撞向了一名反抗议者。谢天谢地，他已被控以严重攻击罪。我之所以分享这个消息，是因为埃隆对这一事件回应称，对特斯拉的暴力行为太疯狂了。
Elon also said sure is insanely ironic that the people shooting bullets into Tesla stores burning down cars and generally being violent are calling me a Nazi when I have done literally zero violence at all. I've been looking for some evidence proving that these protesters were paid to be there and you'll see on the indivisible website and event reimbursement form. The indivisible project can reimburse groups for eligible expenses associated with your musk or us actions up to $200 per group per congressional recess.
埃隆还表示，非常具有讽刺意味的是，那些向特斯拉商店开枪、烧汽车并普遍表现出暴力行为的人却称我为纳粹，而我实际上根本没有做过任何暴力行为。我一直在寻找证据证明这些抗议者是被付费来这的，而且你可以在“不可分割”项目的网站上和他们的活动报销表格中看到。这一项目可以为每次国会休会期间与“穆斯克或我们”行动有关的小组报销高达200美元的合格费用。
But there's a note if you plan on incurring expenses that you can't cover using this reimbursement and your own groups funds, please check in with your indivisible organizer. So publicly they're framing this as reimbursement, but yeah, color me skeptical on that one. But look, the point is you have groups and organizations that are 100% funding these protests.
如果您计划产生无法用这笔报销和您自己团队的资金来支付的费用，请务必联系您的组织者。虽然他们对外称这是报销，但我对此表示怀疑。重点是，有一些团体和组织在全力资助这些抗议活动。
And I have to say this was quite an interesting read. Alexandra Tesla Boomer Mama actually shared the Google doc for the Tesla Take Down Action Toolkit. There was a step-by-step guide on how to do this, including ideas for chance below. So if the protests felt inorganic, well, it's because they largely were. And here's a picture that Elon shared of these prescripted chance for everybody to use. They even shared sample social media posts for these people to share.
我必须说，这真是一次相当有趣的阅读体验。Alexandra Tesla Boomer Mama 实际上分享了一个谷歌文档，里面是关于特斯拉打击行动工具包的内容。这里面有一个详细的步骤指南，包括一些机会的想法。因此，如果抗议活动让人觉得不自然，那是因为这些活动在很大程度上是精心策划的。这里还有一张Elon分享的照片，里面有大家可以使用的预设口号。他们甚至为人们提供了可分享的社交媒体帖子样本。
Some good news, the lunatic that assaulted the woman driving her Tesla in the middle of a road in Arizona has been arrested for disorderly conduct and could be facing up to 20 years in prison. We also have Ryan Williams who vandalized a cyber truck being charged with felony criminal mischief. He actually admitted to police that his act was part of the Tesla Take Down Day. The Minnesota police were looking for this woman who vandalized a Tesla and a few hours later she was identified. This man who took pliers to a cyber truck has been ID'd and there's a warrant out for his arrest.
好消息，在亚利桑那州袭击特斯拉女司机的疯子已经因扰乱治安被捕，可能面临最高20年的监禁。还有就是，我们看到瑞恩·威廉姆斯因损坏一辆Cybertruck被控以重罪刑事恶作剧。他实际上向警方承认，他的行为是 "特斯拉摧毁日"的一部分。明尼苏达州警方一直在寻找一名破坏特斯拉的女性，几个小时后她身份已被确认。一名用钳子对付Cybertruck的男子已经被确认身份，并已发出逮捕令。
There's now reporting coming out that these protests are the product of a well-funded, tightly coordinated campaign led by national political organizations like the Indivisible Project, move on.org, and professional protest firms. Astra Nomani shared a very detailed thread about the topic. We're not diving into it, but it'll be linked below if you're interested. She said 24 organizations and counting are funding and organizing the Tesla Take Down protests. Jamoth Polyapatia said it's clear to me the domestic terrorism against Tesla is not bottoms up vandalism. It's an organized effort to pressure Elon to walk away from Doge.
现在有报道指出，这些抗议活动是由全国性政治组织（如Indivisible Project、MoveOn.org）和专业抗议公司领导的、资金充足且协调紧密的运动的产物。Astra Nomani 分享了一篇关于该话题的详细文章。我们在这里不详细讨论，但会在下面附上链接以便感兴趣的人查阅。她提到，目前已有24个及以上的组织正在资助和组织针对特斯拉的抗议活动。Jamoth Polyapatia 表示，显然针对特斯拉的所谓“国内恐怖主义”并不是自发的破坏行为，而是一个有组织的动作，目的是迫使埃隆·马斯克放弃狗狗币。
There are money to interest that have benefited for decades from the organized leakage from the government. It's clear that Doge is finding and stopping it. The incentive then to hire rent to protestors and pay for organized terrorism is clear. What they don't understand is Elon will double and triple down. So yes, I shared those examples because I find it encouraging that many of these vandals are indeed being caught, but what Elon said is true. It's time to arrest those funding the attacks, arresting their puppets and paid foot soldiers will not stop the violence.
多年来，一些利益方通过政府的系统性漏洞获利。显然，Doge正在发现并阻止这种情况。因此，他们有动力去雇佣抗议者，并资助有组织的恐怖活动。不过，他们没想到的是，Elon会加倍努力去打击。是的，我分享这些例子是因为我觉得值得鼓舞，许多破坏者确实被抓住了，但Elon说得对。是时候逮捕那些资助攻击的人了，仅仅逮捕他们的傀儡和受雇的走卒是无法阻止暴力发生的。
But look at the bright side. Even somebody like Pierce Morgan is now saying if these morons keep attacking Tesla's I may buy one. To balance out some of the hate against the cyber truck, no clue on X said our cyber truck saved my life and the life of my five-year-old daughter. We were t-boned by a drunk driver who ran a red going 60 miles per hour. The police on the scene told us if we had been in any other vehicle, the car would have flipped and been torn in half. He said I'll be buying a new cyber beast this week. If you love your family, buy a Tesla.
但看看积极的一面。连像皮尔斯·摩根这样的人也开始说，如果这些蠢货继续攻击特斯拉，我可能会买一辆。为了平衡一些对Cybertruck的攻击，在X上有人说我们的Cybertruck救了我和我五岁女儿的命。我们被一个酒驾者撞上，对方闯红灯时速度达到60英里每小时。现场的警察告诉我们，如果我们坐的是其他车，车子可能会翻车并被撞成两截。他还说，他会在本周买一辆新的Cybertruck。如果你爱你的家人，就买一辆特斯拉。
A new report from Bloomberg NEF is predicting Australia is on the cusp of a big battery boom that could deliver 18 gigawatts of installed storage capacity by 2035 and eight fold increase from the 2.3 gigawatts installed at the end of last year. The electricity market volatility, supportive government policies, and expected coal plant closures are driving potentially huge growth in big battery capacity as Australia shifts to renewables. And they're saying the battery boom is looking likely regardless of the outcome from the federal election.
彭博新能源财经的一份新报告预测，澳大利亚即将迎来一场电池大发展，到2035年，安装的储能容量可能达到18吉瓦，较去年年底的2.3吉瓦增加八倍。电力市场的波动、政府的支持政策以及预计中的燃煤电厂关闭，正在推动电池容量的潜在大幅增长，因为澳大利亚正向可再生能源转型。而且，无论联邦大选结果如何，这场电池的繁荣似乎都非常可能发生。
According to the Australian Energy Market operator, utility scale batteries earned a record breaking $165.4 million from arbitrage in 2024, more than triple the amount earned in 2023. Even in the short term, the report predicts Australia will reach 9.9 gigawatts of deployed battery storage by 2027. And don't forget, these power figures can be multiplied by three if you assume an average three hour duration, so in this case rounding up to 10 that would be 30 gigawatts by 2027. That up from about seven gigawatts at the end of last year.
根据澳大利亚能源市场运营商的数据，公用事业规模的电池在2024年的套利交易中赚取了创纪录的1.654亿美元，这比2023年的收入增加了三倍多。即使在短期内，报告也预测澳大利亚到2027年将实现9.9吉瓦的电池储能部署。而且，如果假设平均持续时间为三小时，这些电力数据可以乘以三倍，因此在这个情况下，约为30吉瓦，到2027年。这比去年年底的约7吉瓦要高出不少。
And we know the mega pack is quite popular in Australia, and we also know that auto-bitter is a leading contributor to these arbitrage figures. That's because we just talked last week how Tesla still maintains about one third of the battery storage market in Australia. Tesla is now offering a three year zero interest loan option across the entire lineup in China for the first time. This limited time promotion runs through April 30th, but it does include the new model Y.
我们知道，Mega Pack 在澳大利亚非常受欢迎，我们也了解到，Auto-bidder 是这些套利数据的重要贡献者。这是因为我们上周刚刚讨论过，特斯拉在澳大利亚的电池储能市场中仍然占据约三分之一的份额。目前，特斯拉首次在中国提供针对全系列车型的三年零利率贷款选项。这项限时优惠活动将持续到4月30日，并且包括新款 Model Y。
Tesla's also extending incentive to the Model 3, where it has a five year zero interest financing option. And we got some good news in China. Tesla has enabled the resumption of a previously halted one month free trial of the new SSD, which they're calling intelligent assisted driving. Just know I've decided going forward, I'm going to continue referring to it as FSD so as to avoid confusion.
特斯拉也在对Model 3提供激励措施，推出了五年零利息融资的选项。在中国，我们也有好消息。特斯拉重新启动了之前暂停的新型智能辅助驾驶系统（SSD）的一个月免费试用。不过请注意，我决定今后继续称它为FSD，以避免混淆。
And even bigger news, Tesla confirmed today that both hardware 3 and hardware 4 vehicles will receive FSD in China, where to date it has only been hardware 4 vehicles that have access. Tesla began internal testing of FSD 12.6 on hardware 3 vehicles with employees last week. So the hardware 3 rollout to customers has not begun yet, but we're close. If you have the latest Tesla mobile app and you live in the right place, you may now see the Tesla diner with a view menu and amenities option in the mobile app.
更大的消息是，特斯拉今天确认在中国，硬件3和硬件4的车辆都将获得FSD（完全自动驾驶）功能。到目前为止，只有硬件4的车辆可以使用这个功能。特斯拉上周开始在员工中对硬件3车辆进行FSD 12.6的内部测试。因此，硬件3的客户推广还未开始，但应该快了。如果你有最新版的特斯拉手机应用，并且住在合适的地方，你现在可能会在手机应用中看到特斯拉餐厅的“观景菜单”和设施选项。
Elon replied to Gally saying a crazy amount of execution is needed to get there, but I do see a path to world's biggest company, which yes, I'll admit feels a bit muted after hearing Elon talk about $20 trillion plus valuations just a few months back. But hey, I would say in fairness, let's just start with step one, the biggest company in the world and will go from there.
埃隆回复了Gally，说要实现这个目标需要大量的执行力，不过我确实看到了成为世界最大公司的路径。是的，我承认，几个月前听到埃隆谈论超过20万亿美元的估值后，这个目标听起来似乎显得有些平淡。不过，公平地说，我建议我们先从第一步开始，成为世界上最大的公司，然后再继续前进。
There is nothing about the price action of the stock that tells you whether you should keep owning it. What tells you whether you should keep owning it is what you expect the company to do in the future versus the price at which it's selling now compared to the other businesses that you think you know equally well and make that same comparison and that's all there is to own stocks.
关于这只股票的价格走势，并不能告诉你是否应该继续持有它。真正应该考虑的是，你对公司未来表现的预期，以及当前的股价与其他你同样了解的企业进行对比。持有股票的关键就在于进行这种比较，仅此而已。
Replying to that, Elon said true. Tesla stock closed the day at $259.16 down 1.67% while the NDX was down 0.02%. It was yet another higher volume day trading 16% above the average.
对此，埃隆回应说这是真的。当天特斯拉股票以259.16美元收盘，下跌了1.67%，同时纳斯达克100指数下跌0.02%。当天的交易量又一次高于平均水平，高出16%。
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