Markets Weekly March 29, 2025

Hello my friends, today is March 29th and this is markets weekly. So this past week was a very volatile week in markets, so we have a lot to talk about. Now looking at the S&P 500, we're talking about the potential of a bounce that could last a few days or maybe a few weeks, but looking at this chart, it looks like the bounce is over. It looks like we tried to take back the 200 day moving average, maybe stay above it, but that was not to be and we've fallen, you know, notably below it right now.

你好，朋友们，今天是3月29日，欢迎收看《每周市场》。过去这一周，市场波动非常大，所以我们有很多话题要讨论。现在来看标普500指数，我们谈论的是可能会持续几天或几周的反弹。然而，从这张图表来看，反弹似乎已经结束。我们原本试图重新站上200天移动平均线并保持在其上方，但事情并不如愿，现在我们已经明显跌破了这个水平。

Now there are many narratives about this move. Again, I favor looking at things like policy and options positioning and the smart people who follow options positioning are saying that below 5700, it's been negative gamma. And of course you have that very famous JP more position where a JP mortgage fund is long a put, street or short a put, and the strike price of that is just a little bit below where we close on Friday. So that could be driving a lot of price action as well.

现在关于这一举措有很多不同的说法。我倾向于关注政策和期权仓位等因素，精明的期权仓位观察者指出，当指数低于5700点时，gamma值为负。当然，还有一个非常著名的摩根大通的仓位情况，即摩根大通基金持有长期看跌期权，而市场持有短期看跌期权，其行权价略低于我们周五收盘时的水平。这可能也是导致价格波动的一个重要因素。

Now the legacy media has stories about the potential of this being an inflation scare since inflation data on Friday was higher than expected, but that doesn't really make sense to me because if you look at interest rates, for example, the 10 year yield down, notably you would not expect that if this were inflation scare driven. And of course, this move is most likely connected to the potential for very, very big policy changes on the trade front that will be announced next week.

现在，传统媒体报道了这可能是一次通货膨胀恐慌，因为星期五的通货膨胀数据高于预期，但我觉得这说法不太合理。比如，看看利率，10年期国债收益率明显下降，如果这是受通货膨胀恐慌驱动的话，这种情况就不会出现。当然，这种波动很可能与下周即将宣布的贸易政策重大变化有关。

Now in addition to looking at the stock market, what really struck my eye the past week was of course gold. If you take a step back, it looks like the gold price is going parabolic now we're comfortably above 3000. If you look at the ETF fund flows, they're getting more fund flows and it looks like there's more retail involvement as well. And many stories on the potential drivers of this, it could even be the potential escalation of geopolitical events that we are not fully aware of just yet, because when it comes to these events, someone always knows.

现在，除了关注股市之外，上周真正让我注意到的是黄金。当然，如果从更宏观的角度来看，黄金价格似乎正在呈现抛物线式上涨，现在已经稳稳超过了3000。如果查看ETF基金的资金流动，会发现资金流入增加了，而且似乎还有更多的散户参与。关于这种现象的潜在驱动因素有很多故事，可能乃至于潜在的地缘政治事件的升级，这些事件我们还没有完全掌握，因为一旦涉及到这些事情，总是会有人提前知道。

All right, also one thing I'll add again, as you guys all know, I think the biggest driver of market prices is policy. And frankly, looking back the past few months, I think navigating markets has been really easy. Now I would invite you if you haven't yet. Look at that to check out my market outlook. 2025, I taped in December back then the S&P 500 was at 6000, gave you 5500 target, gold was at 2600, gave you 3000 target, and the 10 year yield was at 4.6, I gave a 4% target and everything is moving towards that direction. Policy has been very clear, you just have to listen.

好的，还有一件事我想再补充一下，就像大家都知道的那样，我认为推动市场价格的最大因素是政策。坦率地说，回顾过去几个月，我觉得掌握市场动态真的很容易。如果你还没看过的话，我建议你看看我对市场的展望。2025年，我在12月录制了这个展望。当时标准普尔500指数在6000点左右，我预测它会达到5500点；黄金在2600美元左右，我给出了3000美元的目标；十年期国债收益率在4.6%左右，我预测会降到4%，而一切都正朝这个方向发展。政策已经非常明确，你只需要倾听就好了。

Okay, but today let's talk about three things. First, let's talk about the big tariff move the past week, the 25% tariffs on autos entering the US. And secondly, let's talk about this new study from the New York Fed about student loan delicacies and how it could potentially explain some of the rise in the delicacies we see in say credit card and other consumer debt. And lastly, we have to talk a little bit about liberation day, April 2nd.

好的，但今天我们来谈三个话题。首先，我们讨论一下上周出台的重大关税措施——对进入美国的汽车征收25%的关税。其次，我们来聊聊纽约联邦储备银行关于学生贷款拖欠的新研究，以及它如何可能解释信用卡和其他消费者债务拖欠率上升的部分原因。最后，我们还要谈谈解放日，4月2日。

Okay, starting with the auto tariffs. So President Trump as we all know really likes tariffs and he's been making a lot of tariff announcements. Earlier in the month he made a big tariff announcement on steel and aluminum imports. The rationale was of course national security. If the US were to ever fight a war, it need to be able to produce its own steel and aluminum. The moment it's highly reliant upon imports. So you got to protect your steel and aluminum industries for national security.

好的，我们先从汽车关税开始说起。正如我们所知，特朗普总统非常喜欢使用关税，他最近也宣布了很多与关税相关的消息。在本月早些时候，他对钢铁和铝进口宣布了一项重要的关税政策。他的理由当然是国家安全。如果美国要打仗，就需要能够自己生产钢铁和铝。目前，美国对于进口依赖很大。因此，为了国家安全，有必要保护美国的钢铁和铝行业。

Now we always knew that there would be more tariffs coming with the date focused on April 2nd. But Trump has also noted some other sector related tariffs may be on pharmaceuticals, may be on ships and of course on autos. So for whatever reason he decided on the past Wednesday to announce big tariffs on autos, 25% on imports. Now if you look at the data, you can see that the US imports its autos primarily from Mexico, from Japan, Korea and of course Canada. So these are the countries that will likely going to be affected by these tariffs in a big way.

我们一直知道，4月2日这个日期会有更多的关税出台。但特朗普还提到了一些其他行业可能会受到关税影响，比如制药、造船行业，当然还有汽车。无论出于什么原因，他决定在上周三宣布对汽车征收重税，进口关税高达25%。如果查看数据，你会发现美国的汽车主要从墨西哥、日本、韩国和加拿大进口。因此，这些国家很可能会受到这些关税的重大影响。

Now before we go there though, let's actually look at a little bit on the qualitative commentary. Now you can see that there are CEOs of actually US auto companies coming out and saying that this is not good. But on the other hand, you also have the United Auto Workers which is a very big labor union of auto workers issuing this statement saying that this is great. We love this. It's protecting jobs, trying to undo globalization, so forth.

在我们讨论之前，我们先来看一下关于这一事件的定性评论。目前，你可以看到美国汽车公司的首席执行官们发表声明称这不是一件好事。但另一方面，美国汽车工人联合会（一个大型汽车工人劳工联盟）则发布声明表示这非常好。我们对此感到很高兴，因为这项措施在保护工作岗位，并努力逆转全球化等问题。

So this should tell you a little bit about the consistency of the mad movement. Now in any case, the stock market didn't really like this, especially the auto company stocks exception being Tesla, which makes a lot of cars in the US. But for a lot of these other companies, a lot of their cars are at least in part made abroad. For example, it's really well known that a lot of US auto companies have part of their supply chains in Canada where they would make something shipped to Canada. The Canadian side will do some value ad, ship it back to the US, add some value, ship it back to Canada. And so it's actually complicated to intertwine supply chain really within North America. So Canada and Mexico. In the fine print of this executive order, and noted that it would exempt the US made parts from the 25% tariff.

这段话旨在介绍疯狂的市场变动的一些持续性。无论如何，股市对这种变化并不太欢迎，尤其是汽车公司的股票，唯一的例外是特斯拉，因为特斯拉许多汽车都是在美国制造的。然而，对于许多其他公司来说，它们的很多汽车至少有一部分是在国外生产的。例如，众所周知，许多美国汽车公司的供应链部分涉及加拿大，它们会把一些零件运往加拿大，加拿大方面会增加一些附加值，然后再运回美国，继续加工，再运回加拿大。这说明在北美地区，特别是加拿大和墨西哥之间的供应链关系极其复杂。在这个行政命令的细则中，提到美国制造的零部件会被豁免25%的关税。

So whereas 25% sounds really big, especially for countries like Mexico and Canada that export a lot of auto to the US. Because of these intertwined supply chains, the impact is blunted because part of the cars that are made in Mexico and Canada have these US made parts. So it's not going to be as bad as 25%. So that's the good thing. But for other countries though, they don't really have much US made components and they're going to be badly impacted. What comes to mind of course is South Korea. South Korea makes a lot of really good cars. Let's say Hyundai. And if you look at the data, it looks like auto exports from Korea to the US are about 40% of all exports from Korea to the US. So it's a big part of their exports to the US and having a 25% tariff is going to impact them bigly.

所以，虽然25%的关税听起来很高，尤其对像墨西哥和加拿大这样大量出口汽车到美国的国家来说，但由于供应链的紧密交织，这种影响会有所缓解。因为在墨西哥和加拿大制造的汽车中，有一部分采用了美国生产的零部件。所以情况不会像25%那么糟糕。这是好的一面。但是，对其他国家来说，情况可能就不那么乐观了，因为它们并没有多少美国制造的零部件，所以将受到更大冲击。比如说，韩国。当然，第一个想到的就是韩国，韩国制造了很多非常优秀的汽车，比如现代。如果查看数据，会发现从韩国出口到美国的汽车占了韩国对美国总出口额的40%左右。这在他们对美国的出口中占了很大一部分，而25%的关税将对他们的出口产生重大影响。

And maybe that's why not too long ago, we had the CEO of Hyundai come to the White House, stand next to Trump and say we are building a factory in the US and building cars and CO and stuff like that because he knows that they are very vulnerable to this and he's trying to build an America to avoid tariffs. Now this actually brings us to Japan where the situation is really interesting. So if you look at this chart of Japanese autos that are, so autos made by Japanese companies that are made in Japan and made in the US, you note that in the 1980s a lot of Japanese autos were made in Japan and then exported to the US. This was a point of contention at the time and it made the US government very angry.

也许正因为如此，不久前，现代汽车的首席执行官到白宫拜访，站在特朗普旁边表示他们将在美国建厂，生产汽车和相关产品，因为他知道他们在这方面非常脆弱，非常容易受到影响，因此他试图在美国建厂以避免关税。这实际上让我们把目光转向日本，日本的情况非常有趣。如果你看看这张关于日本汽车的图表，即由日本公司生产的汽车，无论是在日本制造还是在美国制造，你会注意到在20世纪80年代，很多日本汽车都是在日本制造后出口到美国。这当时是一个争议点，让美国政府非常恼火。

And so after some negotiation, the Japanese companies decided to build more factories in the US. So today a lot of Japanese autos are actually made in the US, which you can see from this chart. Now there are still some cars that Japanese cars made in Japan exported to the US. These tend to be some of the fancier cars like the Land Cruiser from Toyota, for example. So those cars they will be impacted by the tariffs. But since the Japanese auto companies have diversified and are building a lot of cars in America, they're not going to be impacted as much. And of course Japan is a big economy while diversified such that auto exports to the US are, even if tariffs are going to not have a meaningful impact on their overall GDP.

经过一番谈判，日本公司决定在美国建更多的工厂。因此，如今很多日本汽车实际上是在美国生产的，你可以从这张图表中看到这一点。不过，仍然有一些日本制造的汽车出口到美国，比如丰田的陆地巡洋舰等较高端的车型。这些车将受到关税的影响。但由于日本汽车公司已经实现多元化，并在美国生产了大量汽车，他们所受的影响不会太大。而且，日本是一个经济规模庞大且多元化的国家，即使面临关税，汽车出口对其整体GDP的影响也不会很显著。

So it looks like Japan will be just fine. The Japanese auto companies can okay as well. So this is going to cause some chaos. But at the end of the day, it is possible that these foreign car manufacturers be at Koreans or Europeans follow the motto of Toyota and actually manufacture more in the US. So we'll see if that can happen. That is obviously ultimately the administration's goal. Okay, the next thing we want to talk about is this really interesting study on student loans from the New York Fed. Now we've been talking about the rise in delinquencies from credit card loans and so forth.

看起来日本将无大碍，日本的汽车公司也会安然无恙。不过，这可能会引起一些混乱。但最终，韩国或欧洲等外国汽车制造商可能会效仿丰田的做法，在美国增加生产。我们会看看这是否会发生，这显然是政府的最终目标。 接下来，我们要讨论的是纽约联邦储备银行有关学生贷款的一项非常有趣的研究。最近我们一直在讨论信用卡贷款等违约率的上升。

And last we talked about this could potentially be because consumers and having limited amount of money are prioritizing their mortgage payments because their houses prices have gone up so much. They have a lot of home equity in it and mortgages are also low. So it's really, really valuable for them to keep their home. And so they've been providing prioritizing mortgage payments at the expense of other consumer debt. Now there's this interesting work from the New York Fed that shows that, you know, maybe again, this is a connection that I make reading between the lines that maybe this is also because you have more people taking on credit card that should not.

我们上次谈到，这可能是因为消费者资金有限，他们将抵押贷款支付放在优先位置，因为他们的房屋价格上涨了很多，房屋净值大大增加，同时抵押贷款利率也很低。因此，保持房屋对他们来说非常重要。因此，他们一直优先支付抵押贷款，而牺牲了其他消费债务。有来自纽约联邦储备银行的一项有趣研究显示——这可能是我通过字里行间的连接得到的结论——也许这也因为有更多的人不应该借用信用卡却借用了。

Now if you look at student loan, student loan volumes in the US, you notice that, you know, it's really high, right? In the US, we have about 1.5 trillion dollars worth of student loans for those of you who are not from the US. High education in the US is comically expensive. If you wanted to go to a fancy school, you know, that's like 50, 60,000 dollars a year in tuition. Now there is financial aid to offset it, but still it's a shockingly high price tag. Now part of the reason why prices are so high is because if you go to college, you can get subsidized loans from the government.

现在，如果你查看美国的学生贷款情况，你会注意到，学生贷款的总额非常高，对吧？对于那些不在美国的人来说，美国的学生贷款总额约为1.5万亿美元。在美国，高等教育的费用高得惊人。如果你想去一所优秀的学校，就需要每年支付大约5万到6万美元的学费。虽然有一些财政补助可以减少负担，但学费仍然高得惊人。其中一个导致学费如此之高的原因是，如果你上大学，可以从政府那里获得贴息贷款。

Now as the government provides this financing, students, you know, being just 18 years old, happily borrow, go to school, and because their demand is subsidized, the university's charge can charge high prices. But the student loan, the volume of student loan has really absolutely exploded. During the Biden administration, during COVID, there was some effort to try to help students, you know, being given all the chaos to make payments. And so what the Biden administration did was they basically paused student loans. They also tried to forget, tried to forgive some student loans. Again, they're legal challenges and so forth to that. But what they clearly did though was to hit the pause button on student loans. And so for a period of time, these student loan borrowers did not have to pay their debt. And so given that, because of that, no, they, you know, that kind of strength and consumer finances a bit.

现在，由于政府提供了融资，18岁的学生们愉快地贷款上学。因为他们的需求得到了补贴，大学因此能够收取更高的费用。然而，学生贷款的规模实际上已经大幅增加。在拜登政府期间，由于新冠疫情爆发，他们曾努力帮助学生面对各种混乱的局面进行还款。因此，拜登政府基本上暂停了学生贷款。他们还尝试了一些学生贷款的减免，但这也遇到了一些法律挑战。不过，他们确实按下了暂停学生贷款的按钮。因此，在一段时间内，这些有学生贷款的借款人无需还债。正因为如此，这在某种程度上增强了消费者的财务状况。

And as the student loan aged, you know, their credit stores went up. And so the students did not have to make student loan payments, pausing their delinquencies, everything was okay. They had more money to spend on other things. Now in addition to that, the Biden administration also had this plan called first starts where they set, where they basically wiped out the delinquency records and the default records of previously student loan borrowers who were not in good standing. And so the combination of deferrals and wiping out past delinquencies and defaults basically significantly improved the credit scores of a lot of student loan borrowers. And you can see that in this chart where, you know, over time, people who held student loans saw their credit sources go up. In a sense, these programs artificially boosted the credit stores of millions and millions of student loan borrowers.

随着学生贷款时间的推移，他们的信用评分逐渐提高。由于学生不需要偿还学生贷款，这就暂停了他们的逾期记录，一切都很顺利。他们有更多的钱花在其它事情上。此外，拜登政府还推出了一个名为“First Starts”的计划，基本上抹去了那些信誉不佳的学生贷款借款人的逾期记录和违约记录。延期还款和清除过去的逾期和违约记录的结合，显著改善了许多学生贷款借款人的信用评分。从图表中可以看到，随着时间的推移，持有学生贷款的人们的信用评分有所提高。从某种意义上说，这些计划在一定程度上人为地提高了数百万学生贷款借款人的信用评分。

Now though, it looks like the party is ending. And so as those, as those special programs fade, student loans are going to come due. And after they are delinquent for, say, 90 days, they began to impact your credit score. Now, the estimate from the New York Fed is that, well, if you have a good credit score and you have a delinquency, it's going to negatively impact your credit score in a really big way. If you have a social credit score, you added delinquency to it. It's going to impact your credit score, you know, slightly less, but because you already, you start with a bad score to begin with, but it's still going to impact it. Now, these researchers are suggesting that in the coming days, since the program is over and we have to wait 90 days for delinquencies to show up, you could have millions and millions of people basically show up in a 90 day plus delinquency section.

现在看来，那段美好的时光即将结束。随着那些特别项目的结束，学生贷款将要开始偿还。如果拖欠还款达到大约90天，信用评分就会受到影响。纽约联邦储备的估计是，如果你的信用评分本来很好，出现逾期还款将会对你的信用评分产生很大的负面影响。如果你的信用评分已经较低，虽然受到的影响会稍小一些，但依然会有负面效果。研究者指出，由于项目的结束，我们需要等待90天的时间来看到逾期的影响，未来可能会有数百万人被归入拖欠90天以上的类别。

And that's going to have a very negative impact on the credit score. How big an impact on aggregate credit scores is just really going to depend on how many people are delinquent and what their current credit scores are, higher they are, the bigger the fall. Now, this strikes me as interesting because maybe one of the reasons why that we have a pick up in delinquencies and things like credit card debt is because some of the borrowers were able to borrow because they had an inflated credit score due to these special programs. And as these special programs fade, again, we get to see that what their real credit score is and these guys should never have had been able to borrow as much as they have. So we'll see. It's unlikely I think to have a big impact on the mortgage market and so forth because, well, I think the standards are a little bit higher to get a conforming mortgage, but it could have a bigger impact on things like credit cards, delinquenties and so forth because the standard to get about loan zero is a bit lower.

这将对信用评分产生非常负面的影响。至于对总体信用评分的影响有多大，这其实取决于多少人逾期以及他们当前的信用评分是多少。评分越高，下降幅度可能就越大。这让我觉得很有趣，因为我们看到逾期率和信用卡债务增加可能是因为一些借款人在特殊项目的帮助下，信用评分被人为提高了，才能借到款。当这些特殊项目消退后，我们又能看到他们的真实信用评分。这些人其实不应该能借到那么多钱。所以我们将拭目以待。我认为这不太可能对抵押贷款市场产生很大影响，因为要获得合规抵押贷款的标准要高一些。但这可能对信用卡和逾期等方面产生更大的影响，因为获得这种贷款的标准要低一些。

Okay. Now, the last thing that I want to talk about is liberation day. So President Trump and his team have been teasing April 2nd for some time. April 2nd is the day when the Trump administration will unveil reciprocal tariffs. Now to be clear, it looks like from current reporting that everything is still in flux. Now recent reporting from the Washington Post suggests that the team actually hasn't fully decided what they're going to do. You know, maybe they'll still do blanket tariffs. In fact, the article suggests that Steve Bannon, who was very influential in the Maga Movement, is saying this is going to be such a big deal that we should make liberation day a federal holiday. So whatever is going to happen, it looks like it's going to be big.

好的。现在，我最后想谈的是解放日。据说特朗普总统及其团队一直暗示4月2日。4月2日是特朗普政府将推出对等关税的日子。不过需要说明的是，根据当前报道，一切似乎仍在变动中。最近《华盛顿邮报》的报道指出，团队实际上还没有完全决定他们会怎么做。他们或许仍会实施普遍性的关税。事实上，文章中提到，对于"Maga"运动有很大影响力的史蒂夫·班农表示，这将是一个大事件，我们应该把解放日定为联邦假日。所以，不管最后会发生什么，这件事看起来会很重要。

Now when I read the executive order while back, it looked like they were basically giving themselves a lot of leeway to set recent pro tariffs. Now the principle is that whatever other people tear off us, we're going to do the same to them. However, how they define tariffs is kind of a, it's liberally constructed, right? So in the executive order, they also consider things like that tax to be a tariff, which, you know, I could say that many people think it's technically not. And they will also said that they will look at non-tariff trade wares in as also a sort of tariff. So you know, this kind of wiggle room gives them a lot of room to impose basically whatever they want.

当我之前阅读这份行政命令时，它看起来基本上就是在给自己很大的空间来制定最近的亲关税政策。原则是无论别人对我们施加什么关税，我们也会对他们做同样的事情。然而，他们对关税的定义相当宽松。在这份行政命令中，他们还将某种税视为关税，尽管我可以说很多人认为那从技术上讲并不算关税。他们还表示会考虑非关税贸易壁垒作为一种关税。所以你知道，这种操作空间使得他们可以根据需要实施几乎任何措施。

So I think it's really just going to be dependent upon what their policy objectives are, how the negotiations are, and maybe how they think that the industries will react. Now, some of several reporting the past week, where representatives from the European Union came to talk, we're suggesting that, you know, it looks like it's maybe some blanket tariffs 20, 25% on EU. So, you know, that's a huge increase from what it used to be.

我认为这主要取决于他们的政策目标是什么，谈判的进展如何，以及他们认为各行业的反应会怎样。最近一周的一些报道中提到，欧洲联盟的代表前来交流，据说可能会对欧盟征收20%到25%的全面关税。这相比之前是一个巨大的增长。

Now the Trump administration has focused their tariffs on just 15 countries. Now, there are hundreds of countries in the world, but they're just focusing on 15 and to be clear, you know, really only a few countries do big trade with the US that are going to have big macroeconomic impacts. But, you know, looking at the trade surplus through your deficit chart, it's pretty clear that countries like China, like European countries are going to be impacted the most.

现在，特朗普政府将关税集中在仅15个国家上。要知道，世界上有成百上千的国家，但他们只专注于这15个国家。需要说明的是，实际上，只有少数几个国家与美国有大量贸易往来，这些国家的宏观经济将受到很大影响。不过，从贸易顺差和逆差图表来看，很明显，中国和一些欧洲国家将受到最严重的影响。

So my sense is that this is going to be a really big deal that the market is not anticipating. And I think that, I think that there's probably sizable downside in the equity market, and I'll write about that in my weekly this week. So we're going to find out very soon what this all means. So hopefully everyone is ready. This is going to be an exciting week. And who knows? Maybe we'll have the week, the day off next year. That's why I prepared. I'll talk to you guys next week.

我的感觉是，这将会是市场未预料到的一件大事。我认为股市可能会有相当大的下行趋势，我会在本周的周报中写到这点。所以，我们很快就会知道这一切意味着什么。希望大家都准备好了。这将是激动人心的一周。谁知道呢？也许明年我们会有一天假期。这就是我准备的原因。下周再和大家聊。